1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Bramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: Over the past twelve months, there's been increasing discussion about 8 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: perhaps whether Google and Amazon and other big technology companies 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 1: will become the next Wall Street. Here to talk about 10 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: that with us is Keith Norika. He's a partner in 11 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: the financial institution's practice at Simpson Thatcher and Bartlett. He's 12 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: also former Acting Controller of the Currency from May fifth 13 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: November of last year. Keith, thank you so much for 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: winning us. During your tenure, there was discussion that the 15 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: o c C would be open to some kind of 16 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: fintech charter, allowing the Googles and Amazons of the world 17 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: to UH act more like banks. Can you talk a 18 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 1: little bit about what future you envision for big tech 19 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: as as as banks? Well? Sure, Thanks Lisa for having 20 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: me today. UM. During my tenure, UM we continued UH 21 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: in a initiative by my predecessor, Tom Curry, UH that 22 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: dealt with a fintech charter, which was a limited purpose charter. 23 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: UM that would allow UH institutions to get a bank 24 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: charter to undertake one of the core elements of banking, 25 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: taking deposits, lending money, or or processing payments. And and 26 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: I think you know, there was a concern UM of that, 27 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: that that large companies like Amazon or Google could get 28 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: a charter. Now. UM, in my own view, UM, I 29 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: don't necessarily see UM that that may be the case. 30 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: I think there that they're sort of a superficial allure 31 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: of that charter for those companies. But on the other hand, 32 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: a lot of regulation comes with getting a bank charter. UM. 33 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 1: And UH, these companies right now, UM, these large tech 34 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: companies have a good position in the market. They're heavily 35 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: engaged in commerce as we see UM and UM. Obviously UM, 36 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: a part of commerce involves processing payments to pay for commerce. 37 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: UH and I think that UM, what we're seeing is 38 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: they're they're trying to take advantage of everything up to 39 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: the up to the line of being a bank without 40 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: actually having UH to bear the responsibilities of being a bank. 41 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: And banks have a lot of obligations and regulations that 42 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: come with them and compliance obligations. Uh And at the moment, 43 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: at least, I think the model is more of them 44 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: trying to capture as much as they can of the 45 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: non bank um sort of financial market, uh, but still 46 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: having to ultimately use banks to process and clear payments 47 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: and and to do all the compliance obligations that come 48 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: with them. And uh so while there, you know, may 49 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: in the future be some type of limited purpose bank 50 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: charter available to them, just as there has been in 51 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: the past for big industrial companies. That's that's our history, 52 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: uh and tradition in this country to allow certain limited 53 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: purpose banking charters to large industrial companies and tech maybe 54 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: the the new um sort of industry that that may support. UM. 55 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: I don't foresee them becoming the new Wall Street, so 56 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: to speak, because there's a lot of regulation that just 57 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: necessarily comes from processing and clearing payments and from really 58 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: handling the type of risks that come from, uh, from 59 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: from that type of activity. Well and Keith, that's what 60 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask when you were the acting o 61 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: c C chair in your conversations with executives at Google 62 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: and Amazon and other big technology companies. Was there the 63 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: desire to get further into this territory and and be 64 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: processors of payment systems? Well, first, I guess start with 65 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: the premise of the question. I actually never had any 66 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: conversations with any executives from those companies, and I think 67 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: that you know, that may tell you a lot right there, 68 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: Um that there wasn't that desire to pursue that. Now, 69 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: you know, we're starting to see some limited interest in 70 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: the traditional limited purpose charters, like uh, you know, Square 71 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,559 Speaker 1: has filed an application for an industrial loan company. That's 72 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: usually the way, um that that these type of commercial companies, 73 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: if you will get into a limited purpose bank charter, 74 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 1: or traditionally has been that case. The fintech charter is 75 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: is somewhat new, it's never been used. Uh, and we'll 76 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: see how that goes. That's obviously something for my successor 77 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: to deal with rather than me. But I think that, um, 78 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: you know, there there wasn't yet the sort of interest 79 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 1: that I saw of those large companies, even even in 80 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: our even in the o c c S proposed limited 81 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: purpose charter. Can you just tell succinctly what does the 82 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 1: controller of the currency do? What is that person's specific responsibility. 83 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: Sure UM the controller of the currency charters and supervisors 84 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: the national banks in this country, which hold approximately seventy 85 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,679 Speaker 1: eight percent of the banking assets UH in the United States. 86 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: And it's UH. It's a UM an office that date 87 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: dates back to the Civil War as a means to 88 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: provide a national currency for the country. The currency function 89 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: was later transferred to the Federal Reserve in nineteen thirteen, 90 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: but the the office remains as an independent bureau of 91 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: the Treasury Department UH to supervise UM really UM the 92 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: money center banks, but also many community banks across the country. Okay, 93 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: so then what would it What would be the requirements 94 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: if you wanted to start your own community bank. Well, 95 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: if you want to start your own community bank, you 96 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: have to satisfy the chartering requirements UH that you have 97 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:10,239 Speaker 1: a reasonable prospect for success, you have a good management team, 98 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: you have a business plan. UH. The O c C 99 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: has to have confidence in you to grant that charter. 100 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: But then most of the times UH in this country, 101 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: you also will need to go get f D I 102 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: C insurance. That's a separate application to the f D 103 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: I C UH. And if you want to have any 104 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: sort of controlling investor. If your company, you need to 105 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: become a bank holding company and get permission for that 106 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: from the from the Federal Reserve Board. So given the 107 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: fact that the o C oversees the monetary supply, what's 108 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: your take on bitcoin and all of these cryptocurrencies that 109 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: are getting increasingly popular. Well, look, I think there is 110 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: a lot of interest in this, and I would say 111 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: my um my agency only dealt with a very small 112 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: part of this. I think we're seeing, uh, certain securities 113 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: issues come into into play here where the sec maybe 114 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: take king the lead with the Treasury Department because of uh, 115 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: you know, any type of any terrorism, type of or 116 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: money laundering concerns. But generally, um, I am. You know, 117 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: I believe that people should be able to order their 118 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: affairs in a way that makes the most sense for them. 119 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: And if there's a certain unit of value that they 120 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: wish to base their transactions on, uh, then you know, 121 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: they should be free to do that, but they need 122 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: to be fully aware of the risks that may come 123 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: from that. And just to come full circle, when we 124 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: were talking about fintech charters, which firm do you think 125 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: is sort of most positioned to engage in more bank 126 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: like activities that we should pay attention to. Well, look, 127 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: I think to me, the big challenge was finding a firm. 128 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: I think in my own view, I was open to 129 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: granting such a charter, but there wasn't necessarily a good 130 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: match at the time of during my tenure of a 131 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: company that was willing to adhere to sort of bank 132 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: like restricts and have sort of bank like um prospects 133 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: of success. And so, you know, when you look at 134 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: the smaller companies, a lot of these fintech companies are 135 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,119 Speaker 1: more tech like in the sense of they're more try 136 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: and see how it works. Maybe it'll work, maybe it won't. 137 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: That that's not really the way the O c C 138 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: charters banks in this country, or any bank regulator for 139 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: that matter. There has to be sort of they're sort 140 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: of a reputational element um. And so so I'm i 141 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: I we didn't find one during my tenure. So I 142 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: think we're gonna have to see, all right, we gotta 143 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: leave it there, Thanks very much, Keith Norieka. He is 144 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: a partner in the financial institutions practice of Simpson Simpson 145 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: Thatcher and Bartlett cell Gene is spending a lot of 146 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: money they have announced that they're going to be spending 147 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: nine billion dollars for Juno Therapeutics. Also Santa Fee spending 148 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: about eleven and a half billion dollars for bio Verative. 149 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 1: Here to help us understand this merger activity is Max 150 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: Neeson Our Bloomberg, Gadfly, Columis. He covers healthcare, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Max, 151 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: I'm looking at your most recent column that you just 152 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: put out, and you are skeptical about the price that 153 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: the companies are paying for this. You say that perhaps 154 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: this just is a case of being forced to do mergers. 155 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: Why is that so? Both companies are under a good 156 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: deal pressure to do a sizeable deal for for a 157 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: couple of different reasons. Celgene last year cut their long 158 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: term revenue forecast ended up really doing a big hit 159 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: to the share price. And then Santa Fee. Um, you know, 160 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: it's involved heavily in the diabetes business with some aging 161 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: products and a lot of price competition. It also kind 162 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: of swung and missed on on two big deals over 163 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: the past couple of years, so as really looking to 164 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: get something done, and um, I do think that that 165 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: pressure might have played a role in moving these companies 166 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: to do deals that definitely have risks. Okay, so let's 167 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: talk about those risks. First of all, why don't you 168 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: start with the deal that you think holds the most risks? 169 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: And interestingly, both cell Gene and Santa Fees shares both declined, 170 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: uh and perhaps that had to do with the price 171 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: that they were paying for their acquisition target. I definitely 172 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: think so, I'd say, if I had to pick one 173 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: that has the biggest kind of downside risk, it's it's 174 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 1: probably Santa Fees deal. Um it's for a company Biovariative 175 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: that focuses on hemophilia, and um it sells kind of 176 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: prophylactic treatments that you take ahead of time to reduce 177 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: the likelihood of a bleeding event. Um And and make clear, 178 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: hemophilia is when your blood can't close. Yeah, it's a 179 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: clouding disorder exactly gion etique. But there are a bunch 180 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 1: of companies that are working on kind of gene therapies 181 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: that that potentially offer um one time effective cures for hemophilia. 182 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: They're very early stage. We still don't know if they're 183 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: gonna kind of work and last, and they're gonna be 184 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: really expensive, but that's kind of an existential threat to 185 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: this company's business model. And they're working on the same 186 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: thing but really early stage, their way behind some of 187 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 1: these other firms. So you know, this is gonna be 188 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: a near term burst boost for their sales and earnings, 189 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: but you know it really could go pretty badly. Cell 190 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: Gene um, you know, they're making a bet on these 191 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 1: kind of new cell therapies that offer a potential cure 192 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: for blood cancers. But um, it's a company it's a 193 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 1: little bit late to the first generation of these treatments 194 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: and um, so that means that this is a big 195 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 1: bet on the future generations the kind of more advanced 196 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: and safer versions of these therapies. And there are a 197 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: lot of companies involved in that. Um. You know, it's 198 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: unclear if if Juno and Celgene are gonna come ahead, 199 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: so so they're risk with that as well. Now. Bio 200 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: Verative based in Waltham, mass home to Bloomberg one six 201 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: one Boston, New Report, and thirty in Metro West and 202 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: the South Shore. We of course welcome all of our listeners. 203 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: If had three four hundred employees, I mean this is 204 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: not a I'm just saying this is a through eleven 205 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: and a half billion dollar deal. They do they have 206 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: something so special for hemophilia and blood disorders that would 207 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: create this kind of premium. And if you've got four 208 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 1: hundred employees and someone spending eleven and a half billion dollars, 209 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: you better have something. Yeah. So that that's the thing 210 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: that I And if it was so great, why did 211 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 1: bioge and spin them off? Exactly? I mean, so I 212 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: think Biogen's motivation was that they're trying to become more 213 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: narrowly focused on um on neurology, on on disease of 214 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: the brain, and this was kind of ancillary to that. 215 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: But um, you know that that is the thing that's troubling. 216 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: They're paying a big premium for that kind of near 217 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,599 Speaker 1: term growth boost. There are some you know, longer term 218 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 1: prospects for for growth that more people are going to 219 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: move to this sort of prophylactic treatment from kind of 220 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: the acute treat No, no no, no, I understand that on 221 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: the on the on the medical side, but I mean, 222 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: this company is it's a nine million dollar revenue company, 223 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: So I mean, is there a metric? Is there some 224 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: kind of magic formula that they ended up coming up with? 225 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: This eleven and a half billion dollar price tag. You know, 226 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: with with biotech, it's always a little bit of the 227 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: you know, the kind of on market growth. You have 228 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: to pay a premium for that because there's just not 229 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: that many companies with kind of recently approved in growing drugs. 230 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: And then there's the fact that you put some premium 231 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:25,599 Speaker 1: on the pipeline, which you know is always an exercise 232 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: and in kind of shaking a magic eight ball. Um, 233 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: you do your best based on the science and you know, 234 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: evaluating similar treatments that are actually on the market, but 235 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: you really have no idea until they hit the market 236 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: and start selling. How are these companies planning to pay 237 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:42,560 Speaker 1: for their acquisitions? How are they going to pay for them? 238 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: To centerfes leveraging up to some degree, I think, Um, 239 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: but you know they both have a ton of cash. 240 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 1: You know, these are really high margin business of the 241 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: drug business in general, you're always going to have money 242 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: to make acquisitions the builder to finance them. But um, 243 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: you know the type of return you're going to generate. Um, 244 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 1: there's a lot more variants than in just about any 245 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 1: other business. Making an acquisition. You could have you know, 246 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: no return or very little, very easily. All right, So 247 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: real quick, which company do you think will be the 248 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: next to announce a big acquisition in the biopharmaceutical space? UM, 249 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: I would guess if it's anyone, it's gonna be m 250 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: gen early enormous cash pile hasn't made a deal in 251 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: in some time, and um, you know all of that 252 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: overseas cash coming, and they have a particularly large chunk 253 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: of it. UM, I'd say they're they're probably next up. 254 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: All right, Max Neison, thank you so much for joining us. 255 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: Max Neson is biotic, pharma and healthcare calumnist with Bloomberg 256 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,359 Speaker 1: gad Fly, joining us here in our eleven three oh studios. 257 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: A I G certainly getting our attention today. It is 258 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: starting to reverse course after years of retrenchment. Here to 259 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: talk about the latest moves that this insurance behemoth made. 260 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: Jonathan Adams joins us now. He's senior insurance and industry 261 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: analyst who joins us for Bloomberg Intelligence from Princeton. Jonathan, 262 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. So A 263 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: I G is buying validus put this into perspective for us. 264 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: How big of a deal is this for A I G. 265 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: And is it it the right move. It's a five 266 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: point six billion dollar deal and not huge in terms 267 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: of UM what types of transactions we've seen in the 268 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: industry over the past. UM. It increases their commercial lines 269 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: premium by about ten percent a little bit over UM. 270 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: In terms of whether it is strategically a good move, UM, 271 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: I think it's a It's quite a and UH it's 272 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: moving into the reinsurance business at a time when that 273 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: business has faced some difficult pricing pressure. Not only that, UH, 274 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: you may recall that A i G posted three billion 275 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: dollars of catastrophe losses in the third quarter, and that 276 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: was due to significant exposure they have in their property 277 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: lines business. They said at the time they were looking 278 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: for opportunities to lower the volatility in that business and 279 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: that they would lower their exposure to property risk. This 280 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:38,359 Speaker 1: deal adds that exposure because that's a primary business for Validus. 281 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: So I'm not sure it ultimately will complete UH some 282 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: of the strategic moves that the company wanted to UH 283 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: to do. So why do this deal? Well, UH CEO 284 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: Brian Duperl has UH said that he wanted to expand 285 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: A I G. And he wanted to make an acquisition 286 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: and that would help the company grow. UM. This certainly 287 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: UH fits in that category to some degree. UH. It 288 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 1: adds some new lines of business. Validus has a crop 289 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: business that the A I G does not participate in 290 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: that in that business, so it helps them there, and 291 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: it also helps them in their specialty lines business. So 292 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: there are some areas where they could generate some premium growth. 293 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: And it does UM add to earnings UH and their returns. 294 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 1: But again, UM, I think at at a very constantly 295 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: price that actually slightly dilutive to their tangible book value. 296 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: And I'm not sure this would be the first deal 297 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: I would UM I would look towards. Well, Jonathan, I'm 298 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 1: confused because a lot of people have been calling for 299 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: A I G to break up further into its parts. 300 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: It was of course pummeled during the two thousand and 301 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: eight credit crisis UM, and it has stripped down its 302 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: business quite a It is this sort of signaling that 303 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: it's now going to embark on bulking back up and 304 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: going in the opposite direction of what a lot of 305 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: people are saying. It certainly looks that way. And although 306 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 1: I admire valid as his management team, it's certainly a 307 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: good group of individuals. I'm not sure the business offers 308 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: the types of return that UM really investors would would 309 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: want to see UM when A I G returns to 310 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 1: the expansion mode, which obviously it's done, and I think 311 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: the signals they'll continue to do so. But again I'm 312 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: not sure this is leading with your uh strongest foot 313 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: just I mean, this is just you know, uh speculative, Jonathan. 314 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: But five and a half billion dollars, there's a lot 315 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: of money. Why wouldn't they just increase the dividend? Well, 316 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: I think that goes to the CEO's philosophy and the 317 00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: importance that he puts on signaling to the market ages. 318 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: Downsizing is over and it's time to look to new 319 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 1: industries and to expand. I think that couldn't names I mean, 320 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: and and clearly I'm not I don't want to put 321 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: you in the position of having to, you know, offer 322 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 1: your A I G. There the perspective, But for five 323 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 1: and a half billion dollars, couldn't they have built their 324 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 1: own agriculture insurance business. The agriculture business is UM very 325 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,439 Speaker 1: much of a regulator business, so that maybe isn't the 326 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: best example. But in terms of expanding their specialty lines, yes, 327 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: they certainly could add more underwriters and and have expanded 328 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: in that area um even though they chose to acquire 329 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: so UM. From my point of view, I think what 330 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: they're probably would say to you is, look, we've got 331 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: a great management team and valid Is. We think they've 332 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,360 Speaker 1: done well in diversifying their own business. We like how 333 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: they assess risk. To my point about their desire to 334 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: reduce risk and volatility, they would probably say, what better 335 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: way than to bring in the expert team from a 336 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: reinsurer that knows how to handle that risk, and that 337 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: expertise is what we're going to use. I think that's 338 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: what they tell you. Again. My concern is that they 339 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: still are bringing in a lot of exposure in risk 340 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: onto the books as they do that. Thanks very much. 341 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 1: Jonathan Adams is our senior insurance industry analysts talking about 342 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: a i G spending five and a half billion dollars 343 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 1: for Validus, the future of General Electric, what do we 344 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 1: see as the future of the industrial conglomerate. Karen yubile 345 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: Heart is our industrials analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and she 346 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: has the enviable task of watching what happens with ge Karen, 347 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 1: what can you tell us about their actual strategy get 348 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: into the details of a sort of potential aircraft engine. Uh, 349 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: sort of deal in a moment. But what is actually 350 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 1: the strategy for g E as laid out by management. Well, 351 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 1: it is evolving. Uh. You know. The event last week 352 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: was on the insurance problems on that call um setting 353 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: aside money because of long term care policies that were 354 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: sold about a decade ago. Yes, but for the first 355 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: time the CEO did suggest that he, you know, might 356 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: get go for selling parts of business. Has been more 357 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: aggressive moves which people really were looking for, because which 358 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: businesses could they or should they sell that would generate 359 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: the biggest premium, the biggest price, Well not totally, butchering 360 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 1: the core of the company that that's the good businesses 361 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: or healthcare and aviation. I don't think they'll let go 362 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: of them. They need the earnings, they need the cash flow. 363 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: You know. The most immediate one would be Baker, Hughes 364 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: and a couple of the smaller businesses, which inaggregate would 365 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: actually help solve the problem if they put all the 366 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: cash toward debt in their pension, they would solve a 367 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: go a long way. Bank of America Mary Lynch coming 368 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 1: out today with the downgrade of the shares um perhaps 369 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: a little bit late. I mean the shares trading it 370 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: around sixteen dollars right now lost since December two thou 371 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 1: and eleven. You should say, yeah, okay, good footnote there. 372 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: But it's also a report that General Electric supply the 373 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: engines for the A three eight superjumbos that Emirates has 374 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 1: ordered from Airbus. Would that be enough to really change 375 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: the perception of aviation business? The perception of the aviation 376 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: business is really good. It's it's it's you know, it's 377 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: an eighty four billion dollar business. It's got twenty seven 378 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: ebit margins um you know, mid twenties, just a bit margins, 379 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: very well positioned, high you know, a lot of parts annuity. 380 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: But they don't do it all right, I mean they 381 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: do it in conjunction with Pratton Whitney. I believe well 382 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: that those are the two engines, those are the two 383 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 1: major engines. And then also they got the deal with Saffran. 384 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: Yes that's a j V. Yeah, So I mean, why 385 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 1: not spin off the aviation business? Uh? That would materially, 386 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: I guess because it's one of the I mean it 387 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: is a standalone It would make some sense. However, they 388 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: would lose a lot of the earnings while they have 389 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: a sort of a credit crunch and cash is you know, 390 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 1: I um, and then they'd have an earnings problem. But 391 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 1: I think it would make some sense in it is 392 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: a round jewel. Okay, this might be a really basic question. 393 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: But how will ge go about trying to solicit offers 394 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: or solicit you know, some estimates of what other companies 395 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 1: would pay for their businesses right now without undermining their value. Well, 396 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: they're in a weakened state. Uh no, no doubt right. 397 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 1: I mean I've done to some of the parts valuation 398 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 1: that does show there is you know, a decent amount 399 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: of value um low twenties um equity value. However, they're 400 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: going to take haircuts on selling these businesses because as 401 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: a stock, you know, weekends and people get liquidity fear, 402 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 1: fair fears, um, they're not going to get those full values. 403 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 1: So uh, you know they're gonna have to They're gonna 404 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: shop the baker Use. They can just start selling down 405 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: now they have a restriction, but that can be dealt with. 406 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,360 Speaker 1: They have to go to baker Use Conflict Committee, which 407 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: is part of the board and and you know, asked 408 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: to get out early because they they are not legal. 409 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: They the deal is they can't sell down till July. UM. 410 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: You know, so that that step one. But that's a 411 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: fair amount of value that they could get out of 412 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: that UM. So that would be one fast move they 413 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: could do without having to you know, they have to 414 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: get permission of course, but they don't have to look 415 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: for the market setting the value. So that's that. Okay, 416 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: So that's Baker hues. What about the Alls Tom acquisition? 417 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 1: Could they are they gonna write that off? Do you 418 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: think that's the latest that people are um speculating on. 419 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 1: I don't know that they're going to take a big 420 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: right off in power yet. Uh. You know, in the 421 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: fourth quarter you have to take a look at all 422 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 1: your assets. That's why that issue is coming up for discussion. 423 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 1: It's possible, I think that they will hold on to 424 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,639 Speaker 1: that UM at its current value at this point. Do 425 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: you have a sense of what the time frame is 426 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: that g is following with the asset sales? Well, I 427 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 1: don't know that they have any specifically underway so I 428 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,120 Speaker 1: but I know that with the liquidity concerns, that it's 429 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: going to be sooner, sooner than later they haven't. I 430 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: mean the the that's the first time he really talked 431 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 1: about it. I think he's seeing the seriousness of we've 432 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: got to do something bigger. So I think you're gonna 433 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 1: You're definitely going to see something, uh, you know sometimes 434 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: this year. In my opinion, I you know, I wouldn't 435 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: be surprised if they noun something on Baker use in 436 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: the short term. Actually, Karen, you will, Heart. Thank you 437 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Karen evel Heart is industrials 438 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,679 Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg is joining us here in our eleven 439 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 1: three oh studios. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P 440 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 1: and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 441 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 442 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm 443 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. 444 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.