1
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee.

2
00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

4
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining

5
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,720
Speaker 1: Us now a gentleman and we spoke to his entourage

6
00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,519
Speaker 1: and they said, John that we could not speak about

7
00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:40,120
Speaker 1: Netherlands women's soccer. I just we just could speak about it.

8
00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,479
Speaker 1: Villiam is a good sport. He'll talk about that. Accept

9
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 1: the loss. It was a loss villain bouncer with a

10
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:51,120
Speaker 1: city special economic advice against. Yes, it's exciting to see

11
00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,720
Speaker 1: the women finally really getting some serious attraction, really amazing event.

12
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:57,480
Speaker 1: Is this your first time? And ready would you pull?

13
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stand up, folks and pull his Wellamo, I'm

14
00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,759
Speaker 1: over here. You're the tech guy. Now, you're the tech guy. Now?

15
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,800
Speaker 1: Is villain close enough to the mic? Let's talk about

16
00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 1: this slowdown globally, it's been going gone for I don't

17
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,040
Speaker 1: know twelve months and change. In Europe for quite a while.

18
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 1: ECB president Mario drag said at the turn of the

19
00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,039
Speaker 1: middle of last year that the slowdown would be temporary.

20
00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,800
Speaker 1: It hasn't been a number of months ago, Chairman Powell

21
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,600
Speaker 1: said that below target inflation was transient, that inflation would

22
00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,479
Speaker 1: come back towards target over time as the year grew older.

23
00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,160
Speaker 1: He's come around to a different point of view. What

24
00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 1: do you make of the change in tone of these

25
00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:40,080
Speaker 1: central banks who thought what we're experiencing was temporary? Are

26
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,640
Speaker 1: they late to the party here? Somewhat? Yes, if clearly

27
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:50,680
Speaker 1: almost that exception. Come to a conclusion that the economy

28
00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:56,480
Speaker 1: needs additional support Polish magas and they're about to give it.

29
00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 1: Both should be underfed. Well, Uh, cut rates the next

30
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,280
Speaker 1: time of asking, And um, I think this is borne

31
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,840
Speaker 1: out of the conviction that without that VR at material

32
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,480
Speaker 1: risk of a further slow down or even a growth resession.

33
00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:21,160
Speaker 1: Do you share that conviction? Um, it's not a it's

34
00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:26,600
Speaker 1: not a crazy view. I myself think there's probably more

35
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 1: strength both in the European economies and in the underlying

36
00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:36,720
Speaker 1: US economies domestic demand that is then, Uh, the given

37
00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:42,160
Speaker 1: credit for external environment, I mean trade related is indeed unfavorable.

38
00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 1: So if you wanted to hedge your beds, I think yeah,

39
00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:53,560
Speaker 1: sort of insurance type preventive cut might make sense the

40
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,280
Speaker 1: theory that underlies all this. You go over to Frankfort,

41
00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,160
Speaker 1: you walk in with your heritage of Cambridge and all

42
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,760
Speaker 1: and the rest of it, and there's a new president

43
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 1: of the European Central Bank leans over and charmingly says villam,

44
00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:12,440
Speaker 1: what's our theory? What's the theory right now after ten

45
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 1: years of dealing with this financial crisis? Oh? Theory is

46
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,880
Speaker 1: that we still have to clean up the banking says clear,

47
00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,600
Speaker 1: the banking system properly. Where did this come from? Why

48
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:29,040
Speaker 1: can't we do this like our forefathers did. I don't

49
00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 1: know what our forefathers did, but certainly our contemporaries have

50
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:39,720
Speaker 1: failed in Europe, especially to clean up the banking system

51
00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: properly after the financial crisis. Uh just it was done

52
00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 1: in the US to a much greater extent, but not

53
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,560
Speaker 1: in Europe, and they paying the price for it. I

54
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,000
Speaker 1: think because so much of financial mediation goes through the

55
00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:57,160
Speaker 1: banking system. So if that is still under the shadow,

56
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:03,920
Speaker 1: that makes natural covery mechanisms. Let's buoyant. Should should any

57
00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:09,600
Speaker 1: bank be buying corporate paper or even equity shares in

58
00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,920
Speaker 1: a manipulative way to get to the next meeting. The

59
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 1: Japanese have bought all sorts of stuff and brought it

60
00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 1: in within their quantitative plans. What's Europe gonna buy, John,

61
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,840
Speaker 1: I don't know what they're gonna buy. If they restart que,

62
00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,040
Speaker 1: it may well't be a lot more corporate debt, corporate.

63
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,720
Speaker 1: Maybe they venture into equity. I don't know if they

64
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,640
Speaker 1: start buying football team equity. But at this point wouldn't

65
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,840
Speaker 1: anything like the Japanese. As long as it doesn't move,

66
00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,159
Speaker 1: they can buy it. But that's the key point. It's

67
00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,960
Speaker 1: gonna move. We all know that. Like you said it

68
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,120
Speaker 1: precisely right, and that was a joke to No. It's

69
00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,360
Speaker 1: like Libra, lieboard. Did you like my opening? You want

70
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,640
Speaker 1: to go there? I saw that Libra, let's call the

71
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,440
Speaker 1: whole thing. I like it could sing something from your

72
00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: own that's beautiful. Give us most place. They put auto

73
00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:00,800
Speaker 1: tune on it, so I we've got let a bouncing

74
00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:02,520
Speaker 1: next to you and you want to sink no. But

75
00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,680
Speaker 1: it's like it's like Liberal Library. We got all this

76
00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,520
Speaker 1: new fangled stuff going on, and we can't clear our

77
00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,839
Speaker 1: banking system, can we? Yeah, it seems a bit premature

78
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,680
Speaker 1: to start thinking of a completely new banking system liberal based,

79
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:17,600
Speaker 1: and we're still trying to clean up the message the

80
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 1: old banking system. I mean, Facebook's making all that the

81
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,640
Speaker 1: usual things, and I know cryptos being studied, and know

82
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 1: of course city groups looking at it in in well,

83
00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,040
Speaker 1: it just comes down to the idea of stability with

84
00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 1: money market funds that was in general successful experiment. Do

85
00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:38,120
Speaker 1: you see any of this modern coinage being stable enough.

86
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 1: We don't know, and it will undoubtedly be very heavily

87
00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,680
Speaker 1: regulated if it ever gets off the ground completely. It

88
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:51,599
Speaker 1: will be treated as banking and it will be regulated

89
00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,719
Speaker 1: as banking, and it should be so if you should

90
00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 1: view there's not a something revolutionary, viewed this as a

91
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 1: incremental addition to financial inter mediation. Dylan Botter, thank you

92
00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:21,839
Speaker 1: so much. Thanks for City Group. I've been really looking

93
00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,920
Speaker 1: forward to this conversation. Jane Foley with Robbo Bank, piecing

94
00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,039
Speaker 1: together what we glean from foreign exchange, looking to get

95
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,240
Speaker 1: the other asset classes. If I look Jane Foley at

96
00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,599
Speaker 1: the good mathematics of b B d x Y, the

97
00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Dollar Index, I'm range bound back to May of

98
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:45,279
Speaker 1: last year. I'm certainly range bound back to October of

99
00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:50,200
Speaker 1: last year, which way do we break out of the range. Well,

100
00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 1: that's a very good question, and you know it's I

101
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,479
Speaker 1: think it's quite a risk that will stay fairly range

102
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 1: for the for the next couple of months. Is that

103
00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:02,120
Speaker 1: a bad thing? Well, not necessarily, certainly not if you're

104
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,760
Speaker 1: a corporate and you have for an exchange exposure, certainly

105
00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,240
Speaker 1: not a bad thing at all. But one thing that's

106
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,080
Speaker 1: really quite noteworthy I think in this time for Aprien

107
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 1: that you've been talking about is is the market has

108
00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,240
Speaker 1: got this wrong. The market has has generally expected the

109
00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,480
Speaker 1: Euro to be stronger than it has been and the

110
00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:19,920
Speaker 1: dollar to to be weaker than it has been. And

111
00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,760
Speaker 1: I think gives me this the expectations with respected to

112
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:25,840
Speaker 1: the fed UM. There's a lot of people out there

113
00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 1: who have been confused at the dollar is just not

114
00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:33,880
Speaker 1: weaker considering that the market is, haven't you I've been

115
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,200
Speaker 1: lucky on that one, Tom, Yes, And I think you

116
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:37,960
Speaker 1: know there's a couple of things here, and that is

117
00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 1: partly because of course, it's not just about the fed

118
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,840
Speaker 1: zs and cycle. This is also about the ecbcs in

119
00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 1: cycle and the devilishness of the ECB, particularly draggy over

120
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,160
Speaker 1: the course of the last few months. But there's another

121
00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 1: element to here to you and trying to work out

122
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,120
Speaker 1: where your dollar is going to go in in the future.

123
00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,320
Speaker 1: We can't isolate the outlook for the dollar. I don't

124
00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,160
Speaker 1: think from the picture from emerging markets, because if the

125
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 1: media markets are looking good, if people are moving into them,

126
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: if this confidence is high, that allor is likely to soften.

127
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,000
Speaker 1: But but actually if the if the reverse is to

128
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,360
Speaker 1: then then the dollar could hold a little bit firmer.

129
00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,200
Speaker 1: Maybe then then people are anticipating. Jen there's just this

130
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,320
Speaker 1: view that it's inevitable the rate differentials between Europe and

131
00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,520
Speaker 1: the United States will narrow and I'll be in the

132
00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 1: Euro's favor and the dollar has to weaken because rate

133
00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,640
Speaker 1: differentials have to reassert themselves. Do you push back against

134
00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: that then, Jane, Well again yes or no. I mean

135
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,080
Speaker 1: every in twelve months, you do think that the dollar

136
00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,880
Speaker 1: will be weaker against the euro, but probably not as

137
00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:35,920
Speaker 1: much as the market consensus are. I think our t

138
00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,640
Speaker 1: one month view is is one fifteen. But I think

139
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 1: in this shorter determine the one to three months, you

140
00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,959
Speaker 1: maybe the six months. You you've got to balance that

141
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,559
Speaker 1: argument against what is priced in and I think right

142
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,679
Speaker 1: now the market might have priced in perhaps the risk

143
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,680
Speaker 1: of too much that fed easing in that sort of

144
00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,720
Speaker 1: time horizon three or six months relative to to the

145
00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,200
Speaker 1: to the Euros. And we do think that the ECP

146
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,240
Speaker 1: could cut its discount rate in September. We do think

147
00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:04,320
Speaker 1: that the ECB can maintain the very devish rhetoric going forward.

148
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 1: So again it's not just what is going to happen,

149
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: but what is going to happen compared with what is

150
00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,160
Speaker 1: actually pressed in right now. I've got to explore the

151
00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,800
Speaker 1: tale risk as well, Jane. Increasingly more and more conversations

152
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 1: about the prospect of intervention here in the United States,

153
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:21,480
Speaker 1: Godman Sachs saying it's a low but rising risk. How

154
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,400
Speaker 1: is Rubber Bank framing that right now? Jane, Well, it's similar.

155
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,280
Speaker 1: It would be highly unusual without you know, I don't

156
00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 1: think many people would argue against that. But the Trump administration, well,

157
00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,400
Speaker 1: you know, Trump is very difficult to predict, and given

158
00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 1: that he's very difficult to predict, I think it would

159
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:39,880
Speaker 1: be fool hardy to say it's not going to happen.

160
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,080
Speaker 1: You've got to remember that it is the Treasury and

161
00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,640
Speaker 1: not the central Bank in the U s which is

162
00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,160
Speaker 1: responsible for dollar policy. So from from that point of view,

163
00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to rule it out completely. Jane Johann

164
00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:54,720
Speaker 1: and I got to make a lot of money. First,

165
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 1: We've got to go see Juventus in in the spurs

166
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,560
Speaker 1: in Singapore, like in two weeks. Where's the trade right now?

167
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,320
Speaker 1: I mean you're talked about corporate you know, rable bank

168
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:10,160
Speaker 1: and representing corporations and the transactions. Where's the speculation right

169
00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,719
Speaker 1: now in foreign exchange? Well, you know, I think the

170
00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:18,200
Speaker 1: speculation again is with emerging markets. Um is the speculation

171
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,800
Speaker 1: that you know, there's going to be more trade negotiations.

172
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 1: That's a good thing, and therefore we've got cheap money

173
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,120
Speaker 1: and that the money moves into em And that's certainly

174
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 1: a popular trade or a popular way of thinking right now.

175
00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:31,599
Speaker 1: But there are lots of buds to that, and it

176
00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,080
Speaker 1: is argue that actually maybe in a three six twelve

177
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,720
Speaker 1: month horizon, you're going to see a worsening perhaps in

178
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 1: the relationship between the US and China. This room from escalation,

179
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,559
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of talk about containment of China

180
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,719
Speaker 1: from the US in terms of China's growth as a

181
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 1: as an economic power, also as a military power. So

182
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:56,040
Speaker 1: if that maintains, there is a possibility that actually risk

183
00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,680
Speaker 1: appetite could worsen over a three twelve on the horizon,

184
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,080
Speaker 1: and that could actually lead money moving more well out

185
00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 1: of emerging markets. So I think the answer to your

186
00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,000
Speaker 1: question has to be balanced with what sort of time

187
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,760
Speaker 1: arriving are we looking at, because in the in the

188
00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,160
Speaker 1: near term, yeah, you might see value in some of

189
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 1: the high yielders, but actually you ought to be very

190
00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,400
Speaker 1: very careful um if you're looking at a medium all

191
00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,160
Speaker 1: or a longer term. So, Jane, I'd love to know

192
00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 1: what you'd be fading right now. In the last month alone,

193
00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,480
Speaker 1: in the MFX, the South African rand is up more

194
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,439
Speaker 1: than six against the US dollar. We've had a six

195
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,000
Speaker 1: percentage point move in the favor of the rand, had

196
00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,840
Speaker 1: a decent move in the ardentime pace. So Brazilian currency

197
00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 1: as well, doing pretty decently over the last month too.

198
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,080
Speaker 1: If you had to fade something, Jane right now, a

199
00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:43,080
Speaker 1: move that you're uncomfortable with, which one is it? Well,

200
00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,199
Speaker 1: you know, the South African rand is there because it's

201
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,920
Speaker 1: got more liquidity than most emerging markets. So it's obvious

202
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,040
Speaker 1: trade if you if you just want to get some exposure,

203
00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,360
Speaker 1: so in a way that one therefore could be quite

204
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,880
Speaker 1: a vulnerable. But I think more than that it's the

205
00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,560
Speaker 1: Turkish is the Turkish era that one probably hasn't fallen

206
00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 1: more this week cause of expectations of FED is in

207
00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 1: the cause of this demand for this drive for yield.

208
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,040
Speaker 1: I think if the market came nervous of emerging markets,

209
00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,360
Speaker 1: I think the technically it could be really quite vulnerable.

210
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,960
Speaker 1: And I think the steps that we saw last weekend

211
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:18,400
Speaker 1: by the President really removing at the Central Bank governor

212
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 1: because he was not enough of a yes man, sending

213
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: up big warning, so that one I think it is

214
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,160
Speaker 1: likely to be very vulnerable. What's so valuable about speaking

215
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,720
Speaker 1: them as Fowley folks, as you heard there within one interview,

216
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,880
Speaker 1: the two very different sides of use of foreign exchange

217
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:40,840
Speaker 1: and finance, and that is where they represent corporations doing

218
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 1: hedging and conservative transactions to protect protect revenue and profit,

219
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,440
Speaker 1: and then the speculation side at the back end of

220
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,600
Speaker 1: the interview. Jane Fowley, thank you. Thanks just a huge clinic.

221
00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 1: I just put out on Twitter that it is simply

222
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:12,520
Speaker 1: the single most important labor report on America in fifteen years.

223
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,600
Speaker 1: It is an act of God. McKenzie Partners, Mackenzie Global Institute.

224
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 1: And there Susan Lunnon with an absolute tour to force

225
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:26,679
Speaker 1: for ourselves, our parents, and particularly for our children. Susan,

226
00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:32,479
Speaker 1: congratulations on just an absolute stunning look at the dynamics

227
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,960
Speaker 1: of our labor population. What's a single thing you and

228
00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 1: your team learn piling into all this wonderful analysis, Well,

229
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,880
Speaker 1: thanks for having me so Look, I think they're two

230
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,000
Speaker 1: big findings. One is that as we look forward to

231
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,160
Speaker 1: the age of automation, we see the job creation, it

232
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,440
Speaker 1: could widen the geographic inequality that we already see emerging

233
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,760
Speaker 1: across the country, with some areas doing really well and

234
00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,920
Speaker 1: lots of other places treading water or falling behind. And

235
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 1: the second big finding, as you alluded to, is look,

236
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,120
Speaker 1: automation is going to affect all of us in different ways,

237
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,120
Speaker 1: but one of the most concerning impacts could be on

238
00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,719
Speaker 1: the loss of entry level jobs for young people. Uh,

239
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 1: and we find they're the single biggest group that could

240
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,800
Speaker 1: be affected over the next ten years. What is the

241
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 1: social policy that can amend this immense polarity and growing polarity. Well,

242
00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 1: I think it's two things. One is clearly people are

243
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:38,320
Speaker 1: going to need different skills to have jobs years exactly.

244
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 1: But what's happening now is I think that the pace

245
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,680
Speaker 1: and scale of change is different. And that's why you

246
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 1: saw an Amazon announcement earlier. This this massive program that

247
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,080
Speaker 1: affects everyone from their computer engineers who are now going

248
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: to be learning machine learning, two workers in the fulfillment center.

249
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,760
Speaker 1: Before I get to the urban dynamics, what's the new

250
00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,600
Speaker 1: blue collar? I mean, we grew up with a reverence

251
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 1: whether we were fancy white collar full disclosure, folks, that's

252
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 1: where I was, or blue collar whatever. We grew up

253
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 1: with a reverence for blue collar America. Where's the new

254
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,120
Speaker 1: blue collar? Well, it's going to be in different places.

255
00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 1: There are a lot of healthcare jobs that require some

256
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 1: skills but are very accessible to all. There will still

257
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 1: be jobs in manufacturing, um, but they are going to

258
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 1: require a degree in mechatronics or or being able to

259
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,120
Speaker 1: use the software that runs the robotics. There will be

260
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,240
Speaker 1: jobs in warehouses and Amazon fulfillment centers. There's gonna be

261
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 1: a lot of I T data analyst jobs. It's one

262
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 1: of the career paths Amazon's trying to now create, taking

263
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:43,400
Speaker 1: people from their fulfillment warehouses into I t So there

264
00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 1: are jobs, but we're gonna have to adapt. Everybody listening,

265
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 1: and we welcome all of you across the nation and worldwide,

266
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,240
Speaker 1: particularly in serious exim We're all in different geographies, and

267
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 1: I get the mail coming in Susan of the primal

268
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 1: scream of smaller cities. They're not all Austin, Texas. What

269
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 1: do the geographies do that aren't Nashville, that aren't Austin,

270
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 1: that aren't Portland, Oregon. What do they do well there?

271
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,880
Speaker 1: It's really a matter of new thinking about economic development strategies.

272
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 1: And there are cities across this country that have turned

273
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 1: themselves around, but it requires local action by business, by

274
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 1: mayors to think about what do they have to offer.

275
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:31,680
Speaker 1: You can look at Duluth, Minnesota, acron Ohio, Reno, Nevada.

276
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,200
Speaker 1: There are success stories, but it requires effort. It doesn't

277
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 1: just have you know, naturally, well, I'm gonna go to

278
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,640
Speaker 1: acron Ohio. Tim Ryan of Youngstown was just down presidential candidate.

279
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 1: What's a pixie dust and acron Ohio that pulled them

280
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 1: out of the train wreck of the seventies and the eighties. Yeah,

281
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 1: well they have They were historically a rubber Man tire

282
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 1: manufacturing center exactly good year. So they have built up

283
00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 1: their polymers and plastics business, which is building on that

284
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 1: historic foundation, but it's the twenty first century version and

285
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,160
Speaker 1: now they've got hundreds of companies doing that. And look,

286
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,199
Speaker 1: the city still has problems, the region still has a

287
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 1: long way to go. But as you said, you know

288
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,920
Speaker 1: they were climbing out of the seller. Maybe you didn't

289
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 1: have us in folks. This is Susan Lan Mackenzie Global Partners.

290
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,160
Speaker 1: It can't say enough. As Mackenzie Global Institute, I can't

291
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,960
Speaker 1: say enough about this important report on the future of America.

292
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,680
Speaker 1: Get that bang up, reports Susan, like five years ago

293
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 1: in India, where I think it literally reinvented the emerging

294
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 1: market dialogue, and now you're finally doing it for the US,

295
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: which is great. We all want our kids to get

296
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 1: full time, benefited jobs. Are they dead. They're not dead,

297
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 1: but kids are gonna have to be ready to hit

298
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 1: the ground running. So what we find is that there

299
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:54,199
Speaker 1: are almost fifteen million entry level jobs currently held by

300
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,919
Speaker 1: young workers under the age of thirty four, and some

301
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 1: of those are things like retail as sheer and salesperson

302
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 1: or fast food or hotel receptionist, and those are important

303
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 1: jobs that give people an entry into the labor force,

304
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: teach soft skills, and those are going away. So that means,

305
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna have to think about new ways

306
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 1: for young people to learn those soft skills that employers

307
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: say are lacking. How do we fund schools? I mean,

308
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:25,399
Speaker 1: and take it to public policy, how do we reincentivize

309
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 1: things like school system or the failure of the American pensions?

310
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,879
Speaker 1: I mean, these are bigger, broader topics. None of this

311
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 1: is gonna happen in Washington given the polarity. So what's

312
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:40,120
Speaker 1: a policy recommendation of Mackenzie? Well, I can, yeah, it's

313
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 1: gonna and and this is where it looks. I can

314
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:47,000
Speaker 1: be optimistic. We see companies working with local educators across

315
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 1: the country, so there's uh. The IBM started this um

316
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: six year program for high school students called pe tech

317
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: Right where kids learned earn a four year high school

318
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,160
Speaker 1: degree plus a two year associates degree. That's an out

319
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: spreading across Texas. So there are lots of examples of

320
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 1: companies working local community colleges and high schools to change

321
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 1: the dynamic, and you're right that this isn't gonna necessarily

322
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 1: come from Washington, but there's a lot of bright spots.

323
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 1: Now we just need to scale those things out. Folks

324
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,679
Speaker 1: were so great about this is it's adult. I mean,

325
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 1: they've got really really fancy adult charts. There's no X,

326
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 1: Y Z three dimensional stuff. It's a summer anyways, Susan,

327
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 1: you've got a chart. I think I'm in the executive summer. Susan,

328
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,920
Speaker 1: You've gotta make the fun bigger. I can't read this.

329
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 1: Tell many I'm blind, Okay, Page eleven. Okay, it's a

330
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:42,119
Speaker 1: scattered dot chart of my audience and it ain't pretty

331
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 1: for one quarter of them. And you know, I get it, folks,

332
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:50,479
Speaker 1: it's the president's audience. Um, where where's the surveillance magnifying glass? Colin?

333
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,919
Speaker 1: I mean, can you fight his home great McDowell County,

334
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Clay County, Indiana, and over on a good

335
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: side Arlington in New York County, New York. The polarity

336
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 1: is immense, isn't it. It is immense, and we're gonna

337
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 1: have to really address this because there are large parts

338
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: of the country where the population is older, they're less educated.

339
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 1: They don't have that industry that's the job creation engine

340
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: for the local economy and we need to change that.

341
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 1: Thank you. This has been great. Mackenzie Global Institute, Susan

342
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 1: Land The Future of Work in America Susan, I hate you.

343
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 1: It's a hundred four pages long. What is that about?

344
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 1: After you're seriously gonna have to read it all? It

345
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: is absolutely superb. It codifies all of the blather you

346
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 1: hear Republican and democrat, it actually codifies the data behind

347
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,239
Speaker 1: some of that emotion. I can't say enough about it.

348
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 1: China very much in focus, not just because we are

349
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 1: looking at the ongoing trade skirmish between the US and China,

350
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 1: but also we got trade data overnight which showed that

351
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 1: trade is slowing on both sides, that imports aren't slowing

352
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 1: more than exports. Joining us on to talk about what

353
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: that could mean for the GDP report we're going to

354
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: get over the weekend is Kelsey Broader ext she's your

355
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 1: Asia Group China analyst. Kelsey, thank you so much for

356
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 1: being with us. So let's start with that. What are

357
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: you expecting for the GDP number that we're gonna get

358
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 1: over the weekend and what it might mean for China's growth. Well, certainly,

359
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: a lot of the latest data is not particularly good

360
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: in that regard. The GDP numbers for China have been

361
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 1: somewhat mixed this year, and we are expecting them to

362
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: continue to suffer somewhat from the trade tension. But now

363
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 1: it seems that China has reached something of a little

364
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: bit of a status quo with the US on the

365
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 1: trade negotiations, and so the GDP numbers, unless they're incredibly

366
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: lower than China expects, it seems like they won't make

367
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 1: a huge difference and how China is thinking about the

368
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: trade negotiations going forward. One thing that I'm struggling to

369
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: understand is the amount of stimulus that China is injecting

370
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 1: into its economy right now, sort of reversing its whole

371
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 1: deleveraging push. I mean, how much is that already bolstering

372
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: the economy versus going to bolster it down the line,

373
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: and that these official data won't really capture that. Well,

374
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: it really kind of depends. China's into start of a

375
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: tough spot right now. They would like to continue deleveraging,

376
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of pressure and private enterprise and

377
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 1: support for private enterprise. But really they have introduced stimulus

378
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 1: to kind of curb some of the fallout from the

379
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 1: trade war. They probably won't go as far as they

380
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 1: have gone in the past to really use that as

381
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: a major boost to GDP, simply because the leveraging is

382
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: so important right now. It's quite a fine line that

383
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: Beijing has to walk right now, and we'll see them

384
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: continue to play with more stimulus, but not so much

385
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: stimulus is to really reduce their policy proposals. But it's

386
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 1: going to be a challenge for sure. So Kelsey, here's

387
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: what I'm really struggling with. Also, what does the US want?

388
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, especially at a time when we have

389
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 1: now potential arms sales to Taiwan, we have saber rattling

390
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: from President Trump on Twitter? What is the US looking

391
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: for at this point? The US camp really is you

392
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: can kind of divide it into two and you have

393
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: the trade negotiators, you have Lightheiser, and what they really

394
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 1: want is structural change, right they want to address some

395
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: of these longstanding issues with China's economy. That's slightly different

396
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: from what Trump wants. And while Trump really supports his

397
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: trade negotiators, he is very interested in things like agricultural purchases.

398
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: And that's where this trade data is really important, because

399
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: you don't see China following through on this commitment to

400
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: buy more egg after the G twenty. And that's what

401
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: Trump cares about, is these farmers. On geopolitical issues, those

402
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: have been sort of floating around in the background somewhat.

403
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 1: And with this new news that Taiwan or that China

404
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: is going to be sanctioning US companies over the arm

405
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: sail to Taiwan, that kind of brings some of these

406
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 1: geo political issus into this trade realm in a way

407
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: that's quite quite nervous for the US. Let's reframe it,

408
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: el see, the distance of Taiwan to China is a

409
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 1: distance not to Philadelphia, but to go to the Seven

410
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 1: Sisters to Bridmar Swarthmore. I mean, you know, I mean

411
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: like Taiwan and China they're right next door. How next

412
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: door are they this morning? I mean, after these announcements,

413
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: what what is the new tension there? Where are we? Are?

414
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: We back to fifties and sixties tension? So it's quite interesting.

415
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,719
Speaker 1: So definitely since the fifties and sixties, China's military strength

416
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 1: visa the Taiwan and even visas the US around Taiwan

417
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 1: has increased dramatically. But China is really trying to do

418
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 1: now is put pressure on the US and and Taiwan

419
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: to stop seeing their relationship, which has been going pretty

420
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: far under Trump. So it's not really a question necessarily

421
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 1: of the content of this armstail. China is not really

422
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: worried that this is going to bolster Taiwan significantly, and

423
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 1: in a very situation, what it is here really is

424
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: a warning, right and so previously China has warned the

425
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 1: US of of this twenty fifteen, they threatened to sanction

426
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: US companies. They haven't gone through with it. But now

427
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: you have a situation where really the U S and

428
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: China relationships has gotten much worse over the trade tension,

429
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 1: and there are so many tariffs out there that probably

430
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: provides something of a buffer in China says, Okay, now

431
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: is the time. I don't want you to get in

432
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: trouble with the bremer. But are we gonna have ships

433
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 1: in the straight over the weekend? I mean, if this

434
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: is the fifties or sixties, this will be the number

435
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 1: one story in the world. And my question, I guess

436
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: is it's not now, is it, Even though the straits

437
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: still a h ten miles hundred ten miles wide, it's not.

438
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 1: And interestingly, a part of that is that China really

439
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: right now sees kind of attention here with Taiwan because

440
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: Taiwan is going to have an election in January and

441
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: the more pro China Camp Tea party is pulling very well.

442
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: And China in the past when it has tried to

443
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 1: influence Tient elections through military action and hasn't gone well,

444
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: and the anti China DPP party has actually been strengthened,

445
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: and we've seen that with trying when the current president,

446
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: her poll numbers have gone way up every time that

447
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: China talks about one country two systems for Taiwan. So

448
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: China doesn't really want to do anything necessarily it's going

449
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 1: to interfere in the election. They want the Camp two

450
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: to win, and they don't want Taiwan voters to turn

451
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: against the Camp too because of this action. So I

452
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: think that's a little bit why China has turned towards

453
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: the US in this instance, because it's in some ways

454
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: so ironically a little bit safer in terms of the

455
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: Taiwan straight So going forward, what are you looking for

456
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: to determine whether there actually is progress being made between

457
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 1: the US and China here on the trade issue. Certainly

458
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: a continuation of talks, right I mean, that's really number

459
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: one factor, and right now there's been no indication that

460
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: they've set a date for the next round of talks.

461
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: That's sort of number one. Number two really moving on

462
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: both sides, and the big issues on the table right

463
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: now are one, these Eggs purchases in't to Huawei, So

464
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: the U s has mayor Trump has made some comments

465
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 1: about Huawei getting a slight reprieve, but we really haven't

466
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: seen the details in that, and I think that's what

467
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: China is kind of waiting for. Here is something on

468
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: that front to be able to move forward. You know,

469
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: for China it's all about this win win or freeze freeze,

470
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 1: and it's you know, you gotta give something to get

471
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: something and not really Okay, Kelsey Brodwerck, thank you so

472
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: much with your ratio group on Taiwan. Thanks for listening

473
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews

474
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.

475
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You

476
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio