WEBVTT - A Quantum Leap Into the Next Generation of Computing

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>You are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week. Carol Master

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<v Speaker 2>along at just Matten. She is in for Tim steneviek

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<v Speaker 2>on this Friday? Is it Friday?

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<v Speaker 3>Just?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's Friday?

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<v Speaker 3>It is?

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<v Speaker 4>It's been every week.

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<v Speaker 5>I hope it is.

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<v Speaker 2>Either way, Folks, everybody in that control room, we're leaving

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<v Speaker 2>after this show. I'm just telling you we're counting it

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<v Speaker 2>a Friday. It is Friday, of course, it's just been

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<v Speaker 2>a busy dance week. We have, though, a really interesting

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<v Speaker 2>next segment coming up because you know Jess. Earlier this

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<v Speaker 2>year McKenzie came out there, of course, the Consulting Giant,

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<v Speaker 2>and they wrote about quantum technology and they noted, and

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<v Speaker 2>this is a quote, quantum computers represent a completely new

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<v Speaker 2>approach to computing. And while they won't replace today's computers,

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<v Speaker 2>by using the principles of quantum physics, they will be

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<v Speaker 2>able to solve very complex statistical problems that today's computers cannot.

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<v Speaker 4>And quantum computing has so much potential and momentum that

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<v Speaker 4>McKinsey has identified it as one of the next big

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<v Speaker 4>trends in tech. Quantum computing alone, just one of the

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<v Speaker 4>three main areas of emerging quantum technology, could account Carol

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<v Speaker 4>for nearly one point three trillion dollars in value by

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<v Speaker 4>twenty thirty five.

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<v Speaker 2>So do you think we've got everybody's attend to now?

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<v Speaker 2>I think we do, all right, So let's get into it.

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<v Speaker 2>We welcome Raj Hasra, president and CEO at Quantinum. I

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<v Speaker 2>hope I'm saying it correctly. There's a lot of us

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<v Speaker 2>in there. He's with us on zoom from Portland, Oregon. Raj,

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<v Speaker 2>nice to have you here with us. Say the name

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<v Speaker 2>of your company. I want to make sure we've got

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<v Speaker 2>it correctly.

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<v Speaker 3>That's great to be here, and it is. You got

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<v Speaker 3>it almost ninety percent right. It's Quentinumum quantin Yes, there

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<v Speaker 3>are a couple of skis in there.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we want to make sure we had it right. Listen,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm so glad that we have you here. First, I'll

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<v Speaker 2>tell us a little bit about what your scientists and

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<v Speaker 2>your team and your company are working on what's the mission,

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<v Speaker 2>what's the core business?

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<v Speaker 3>You put Quantinuum is the world's largest full stack hardware

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<v Speaker 3>plus software quantum focus company. We have only one singular focus,

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<v Speaker 3>and that is to accelerate quantum computing technologies and its

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<v Speaker 3>commercialization to solve as you've were noting just now, some

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<v Speaker 3>of those society's largest challenges around inside generation, around cybersecurity.

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<v Speaker 3>It is the next big thing because it is what's

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<v Speaker 3>going to cause the next big value to society and

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<v Speaker 3>value in economics. So our job is future.

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<v Speaker 2>In So help me out here because we're all saying

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<v Speaker 2>the next big thing in technology is AI Artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there a connective tissue between AI and quantum technology?

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<v Speaker 2>They should? We be thinking about them as two different

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<v Speaker 2>things are highly connected.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely done. You hit it on the head. AI is

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<v Speaker 3>a huge force. Think of it as an algorithm set,

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<v Speaker 3>think of it as a methodology, think of it as

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<v Speaker 3>as working on data. The key to it is what

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure does it run on? So if you not AI

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<v Speaker 3>is all about data, more data every day, you know

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<v Speaker 3>GPT three four five, The training models are getting huge

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<v Speaker 3>lots of data and it's going to run into, and

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<v Speaker 3>it's running into two specific challenges, how do you compute

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<v Speaker 3>with this fast amount of data in a sustainable and

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<v Speaker 3>efficient manner? And number two, which I think you've you've

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<v Speaker 3>seen quite a bit in recent talk about AI being

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<v Speaker 3>trustable by being interpretable and transparent. That is the decisions

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<v Speaker 3>it makes. How do you know it's right? How do

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<v Speaker 3>you know it's the right thing. So quantum computing is

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<v Speaker 3>very relevant to both. There are places in classical AI

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<v Speaker 3>techniques today that quantum is a better way to compute

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<v Speaker 3>from either data storage perspective or data you know compassion perspective,

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<v Speaker 3>or just the raw processing of it. And the more

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<v Speaker 3>exciting part of it is quantum allows things like languages

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<v Speaker 3>to be represented in these models in such a way

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<v Speaker 3>that you can actually make them transparent and interpretable, that

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<v Speaker 3>you can say why, you know exactly why it made

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<v Speaker 3>the decisions and told you what answers it did. And

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<v Speaker 3>that is huge because it not lets those kinds of

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<v Speaker 3>AI techniques be brought into the realm of regulated industries.

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<v Speaker 3>Imagine it's not just chat GPD, you know, helping you

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<v Speaker 3>write an email to your friend. It is chat GPD

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<v Speaker 3>or large language models making large decisions in industrial workflows,

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<v Speaker 3>in banking and finance, in linguistics of you know, trying

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<v Speaker 3>to decide what RNA is and DNA modeling can do.

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<v Speaker 3>So that the application is huge for AI to benefit

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<v Speaker 3>from quantum computing as the next generation computing infrastructure that

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<v Speaker 3>not only makes it more powerful and efficient, but also

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<v Speaker 3>makes it interpretable and transparent, thereby making bigger use of

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<v Speaker 3>it for society.

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<v Speaker 4>You worked at Intel for about twenty five years, and

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<v Speaker 4>when you're there, you obviously also were incorporating AI and

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<v Speaker 4>machine learning there that really helped revitalize Intel's growth after

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<v Speaker 4>obviously a prolonged period of decline there. What did you

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<v Speaker 4>learn from what when it came to AI, and how

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<v Speaker 4>are you going to end up utilizing that in your

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<v Speaker 4>role at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great question. As you noted, I was at

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<v Speaker 3>Intel for twenty five years and what we saw the

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<v Speaker 3>growth of classical computing CPU or central processing INNIT based computing,

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<v Speaker 3>dive expand to heterogeneous compute where you had accelerators for

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<v Speaker 3>various workloads. AI was an emerging workload, and what I

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<v Speaker 3>learned was there is you have to do a few

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<v Speaker 3>things in order to successfully deliver the customer expectations. You

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<v Speaker 3>have to build the right infrastructure for the right workload.

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<v Speaker 3>Number two is you have to work with the software

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<v Speaker 3>industry or the software portion and not just build hardware

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<v Speaker 3>and build them in lockstep. So there's a complete solution available.

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<v Speaker 3>There isn't just a hardware asking for software to be

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<v Speaker 3>written for it. And the third thing is what we

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<v Speaker 3>learned is patients in adoption and patience and integrity in

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<v Speaker 3>stating what the results are fundamentally important, so you don't

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<v Speaker 3>create a hip cycle that collapses on you. That is

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<v Speaker 3>exactly what I bring to continue. We are working on

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<v Speaker 3>innovative hardware, but we are a full stack company and

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<v Speaker 3>we are developing hardware and software in concert so we

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<v Speaker 3>can actually build solutions for our customers. I'll give you

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<v Speaker 3>an example. Just last week we announced that names like

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<v Speaker 3>Airbus and BMW are working to incorporate quantum technology into

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<v Speaker 3>their standard workflows that exist today to look at next

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<v Speaker 3>generation fuels or what's called new energy. They're using quantum

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<v Speaker 3>computing technology from US, working with us both our hardware

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<v Speaker 3>and our software to look at better ways and more

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<v Speaker 3>efficient batteries and fuels of the future. That's something they

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<v Speaker 3>cannot do with classical computing for very long, if at all.

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<v Speaker 3>So Yeah, the lessons learned are customer relationships, early and

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<v Speaker 3>closed relationships between hardware and software, and working together to

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<v Speaker 3>build out true economic use cases.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, well listen, We're going to have to continue

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<v Speaker 2>this conversation another time. We have run out of time,

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<v Speaker 2>but we really appreciate it. Continuum CEO and President Raj

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<v Speaker 2>Howzar joining us from Portland, Oregon. You are listening and

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<v Speaker 2>watching Bloomberg BusinessWeek, and this is Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 6>On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>All right, guys, we are going to wrap up. We're

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<v Speaker 2>not quite done. We still a couple of hours here

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<v Speaker 2>on Bloomberg Business Week, but I do feel like we

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<v Speaker 2>started the week, and Jess, we several times came back

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<v Speaker 2>to what was one of the big stories. Yes, the

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<v Speaker 2>move that we saw along the US Treasury curve and

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<v Speaker 2>really among global sovereign dead if you will, in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of yields moving up. But China every day, there was

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<v Speaker 2>a stack of new headlines.

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<v Speaker 4>There definitely wasn't especially because this is the world's second

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<v Speaker 4>largest economy behind the US and then obviously the third

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<v Speaker 4>one is Japan. But this is really crucial to see

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<v Speaker 4>how that economy, if you're seeing, particularly especially this year

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<v Speaker 4>is supposed to be this big rebound year for the economy.

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<v Speaker 4>What does that mean when you have different trajectories for

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<v Speaker 4>both of their central banks.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been tough going and we saw that in certainly

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<v Speaker 2>the economic data points a deflation feear, is a weekending

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<v Speaker 2>housing market, a crisis in the shadow lending sector, so much,

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<v Speaker 2>a surprise rate cut. So let's get to it. Shazad

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<v Speaker 2>Kazi is back with us. We're so delighted he's got

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<v Speaker 2>to report out a new note and he asks, is

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<v Speaker 2>China starting to collapse? Chazad, of course, is managing director

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<v Speaker 2>at China Facebook International. They were founded over a decade

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<v Speaker 2>ago and really to work with and help institutional investors

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<v Speaker 2>and corporate CEOs navigate China's notoriously black box economy. That's

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<v Speaker 2>how they write it on their website. It's so well said.

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<v Speaker 2>He joins us on this Friday afternoon. Shazad the report

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<v Speaker 2>you ask, is China's starting to collapse?

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<v Speaker 6>Is it?

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<v Speaker 2>Or is that just ridiculous?

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<v Speaker 5>No, in China is not collapsing at all. The market

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<v Speaker 5>is just so disappointed at the way twenty twenty three

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<v Speaker 5>is unfolded. They were expecting a big boom basket recovery.

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<v Speaker 5>We always argue that was very unrealistic. That has not happened,

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<v Speaker 5>and so the investor in community has settled on the

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<v Speaker 5>narrative that China's on the version of collapse and the

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<v Speaker 5>only thing that can save the day now is a

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<v Speaker 5>big bang stimulus. We of course argue back and push

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<v Speaker 5>back against that whole thesis.

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<v Speaker 4>What's been the catalyst to prevent us seeing a bigger

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<v Speaker 4>rebound here in China's economies? And so many people were

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<v Speaker 4>expecting that to happen in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 5>I think some of the assumptions going into twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 5>three were just misplaced. You know, we had two years

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<v Speaker 5>of a very bad economic shock because of zero COVID

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<v Speaker 5>policies and of course the deflating of the property bubble,

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<v Speaker 5>which really you know, not only destroyed household wealth but

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<v Speaker 5>really crushed consumer confidence. So expecting the Chinese households to

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<v Speaker 5>come strongly into twenty twenty three and spending left and

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<v Speaker 5>right was very, very unrealistic. Couple that with the fact

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<v Speaker 5>that you know, there is slow down in the external

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<v Speaker 5>environment for China as reflected and its export orders as

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<v Speaker 5>seen through you know, sort of the manufacturing recession, if

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<v Speaker 5>you will, that we're seeing take place in Europe. We're

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<v Speaker 5>certainly seeing pretty you know, slow down in manufacturing out

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<v Speaker 5>here in the United States. Those are starting to add on.

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<v Speaker 5>And of course the critical thing the property market, which

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<v Speaker 5>is in a multi year restructure phase and will be

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<v Speaker 5>a problem story I think for the Chinese economy for

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<v Speaker 5>several more years to go.

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<v Speaker 2>Just forgive me, I mean, Shazad, go back to what

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<v Speaker 2>you said, did you say? What did you say about

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<v Speaker 2>the big banks in China? What was needed?

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<v Speaker 5>The idea right now, the consensus is that, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>China needs to unleash big fiscal stimulus projects, the kind

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<v Speaker 5>that they did in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

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<v Speaker 5>And only can big bang physcal stimulus save the Chinese economy.

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<v Speaker 5>But that's not going to happen. Chinese policy makers are

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<v Speaker 5>looking to de risk the system. They wanted to bring

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<v Speaker 5>down this whole you know, this over leveraged problem that

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<v Speaker 5>they have in the economy. They're not going to, i think,

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<v Speaker 5>add further fuel to fire.

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<v Speaker 2>So then what Okay, So it's great that it's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of contained domestically, all right, or at least how you're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing it. But I mean, if if what's needed is

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<v Speaker 2>not going to be done, then what's I mean? You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think we talked with you earlier in the week,

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<v Speaker 2>like what do we need to in terms of a

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<v Speaker 2>reset think about the China growth engine?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 5>I think you know, as we discussed the other day.

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<v Speaker 5>First of all, investors need to understand that they're looking

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<v Speaker 5>at a structural slowdown in China. They're looking at the

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<v Speaker 5>economic management of the country depart from the model that

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<v Speaker 5>they're used to where we used to get high rates

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<v Speaker 5>of growth. Now China is actually paying the price for

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<v Speaker 5>some of it. The political leadership in China has decided

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<v Speaker 5>that they have the appetite to pay the political price

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<v Speaker 5>because they see it as short term pain and a

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 5>much you know, they're time horizon is a lot longer

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 5>than the markets and investors, I think, and they're willing

0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:38.760
<v Speaker 5>to pay the price today in order to set the

0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:43.440
<v Speaker 5>economy on a more healthy, sustainable pace of growth, even

0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.560
<v Speaker 5>though it's going to be a much slower pace of

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 5>growth than anybody I think anticipated China hitting you know,

0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 5>they're going to potentially do five percent this year, We're

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 5>looking at sub five percent for sure moving forward, maybe

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.320
<v Speaker 5>even one percent or no growth down the line if

0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:01.120
<v Speaker 5>things continue to deteriorate and they're unsuccessful transitioning the economy.

0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 2>All right, not apples to apples, But is this kind

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.079
<v Speaker 2>of a kin if I think about Paul Volker when

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 2>you had to rain and inflation in the seventies, like

0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 2>you had to do something that was going to make

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.480
<v Speaker 2>it very uncomfortable, but was going to put the US

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.760
<v Speaker 2>economy on the right trajectory. Is that kind of where

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.920
<v Speaker 2>China is, and it's kind of the responsible way of

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.439
<v Speaker 2>you know, managing your economy.

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 5>Within the property market. And the way they deflated the bubble,

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 5>I agree with that completely. They you know, pain, it

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.960
<v Speaker 5>has to be endured because that's what happens when you

0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:33.839
<v Speaker 5>deflate bubbles. But that's exactly what they're trying to do.

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:36.280
<v Speaker 5>And this year, I think is a great example of

0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.680
<v Speaker 5>the fact that they haven't jumped in to do massive bailouts.

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.680
<v Speaker 5>The last two years, they haven't done massive bailouts, so

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 5>I think that's indicative of the fact that they are

0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 5>willing to put the economy on the right track and

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:51.199
<v Speaker 5>to avoid what could potentially have been a much worse

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 5>hard landing. We may, I think, have gotten the Chinese

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.240
<v Speaker 5>hard landing that everybody predicted this whole time. Over the

0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.320
<v Speaker 5>last couple of years, with the evergrand crisis and the

0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.080
<v Speaker 5>property crisis that we've seen, you.

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 4>See any sort of red flag's brewing when it comes

0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:04.079
<v Speaker 4>to their property market.

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.320
<v Speaker 5>I mean, this year has been, you know, a very

0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 5>disappointing story for those who bet on the fact that

0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.240
<v Speaker 5>property was on a steady road to recovery. You know,

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 5>you're getting sales weakness, you're getting price weakness. Anytime you

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 5>see an improvement in the numbers, it's not at all sustainable.

0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 5>And it may very well just be the fact that

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 5>year over year results are so distorted this year, given

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 5>the on again, off again switch that the economy was

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 5>put on last year, the property market and specifically the

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:36.600
<v Speaker 5>residential market, the housing market, you know, has I think

0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 5>a lot more disappointment. I had sort of like a

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.160
<v Speaker 5>one step forward, two steps back type of scenario. We'll

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.120
<v Speaker 5>see what happens, by the way, on the commercial real

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 5>estate side of the economy, which oftentimes will escape attention.

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 5>The commercial property developers are also suffering, as we've seen

0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.480
<v Speaker 5>in China pagebooks numbers over the last couple of months.

0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 2>All right, So I'm thinking about our audience, who, just

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 2>like the rest of us, over the last couple of weeks,

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 2>are feeling a little overwhelmed by all of the headlines

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.320
<v Speaker 2>coming out of China. As you say, China is not

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 2>starting to collapse, and maybe and what's going on is

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 2>really kind of the responsible thing in terms of getting

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 2>the Chinese economy back on track. So what should we

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 2>keep on our radar? And just got about forty seconds.

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 5>So don't fall for the China's Leman moment story. It's

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 5>not happening.

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:21.600
<v Speaker 3>As we said.

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.080
<v Speaker 5>If there is a larger crisis that begins to brew,

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.840
<v Speaker 5>I would expect more policy support and banks to step in,

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:33.480
<v Speaker 5>potentially taking over certain companies and certain projects. But at

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.120
<v Speaker 5>the same time, don't go to the other end of

0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 5>the spectrum and start thinking there's going to be big,

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 5>big bailouts taking place, big fiscal projects being announced. A

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 5>lot more nuanced and sophisticated tracking is needed this time around.

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 2>But there might be more stuff that goes that falls down,

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.920
<v Speaker 2>more bankruptcies, but that's going to be okay. Just really quickly.

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 5>We will continue to get mini crisis along the way. Absolutely.

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 5>I don't foresee this turning into a big Leman moment.

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 5>You can get Leman moments in a non commercial financial system,

0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 5>which is what you have in Chi.

0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:03.880
<v Speaker 2>So great to check in with you two times this week.

0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 2>Shazad Kazi over at China Bacebook International, he's the managing director.

0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 2>Have a great weekend. This is Bloomberg.

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.720
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:18.760
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 2>We are living in unusual times. I feel like we

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.720
<v Speaker 2>can't say that enough. Having said that, the macro impacting everything,

0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 2>and that includes cryptoes. We had a period of unusual

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.200
<v Speaker 2>calm in the crypto markets and that kind of came

0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 2>to an end abruptly this week. The notion of higher

0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 2>for longer interest rates, sparking a sell off and risk assets,

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.640
<v Speaker 2>and that included bitcoin. It led to mass liquidations of

0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 2>bullish bets. And then there was the Wall Street jonal

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 2>report about SpaceX writing down the value it's bitcoin holding,

0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 2>so it was.

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 4>Just a lot, right, And then you're also seeing risk,

0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 4>so it's like you're talking about when it comes to

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 4>Bigcoorn sliding as much as eight percent, so clearly under pressure.

0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 4>And then everybody's still watching that thirty thousand dollars threshold.

0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 2>When it comes to big but we're below it, right, correct,

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, So let's get to it our weekly crypto

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.760
<v Speaker 2>segment back or with us, I should say's Frank Holmes.

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.080
<v Speaker 2>He's executive chairman and at the small cap publicly held

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.320
<v Speaker 2>High Digital Technologies. It's a crypto mining company, roughly three

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 2>hundred and twenty onine, three hundred and twenty one million

0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:27.720
<v Speaker 2>in market cap. It's up one hundred and sixty three

0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.359
<v Speaker 2>percent year to date. He is on Zoom from San Antonio,

0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.159
<v Speaker 2>Texas from Jessics home state. Yes, Frank, nice to have

0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 2>you here, Happy Friday.

0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 7>How are you outstanding in a bear market?

0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, tell us about that? What do you make kind

0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.240
<v Speaker 2>of the recent trade, it is a bear market, although

0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 2>we're I guess what, we're about sixty percent above where

0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:50.959
<v Speaker 2>it started the year on bitcoin, So we have had

0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 2>a pop this year.

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, that's true, That's absolutely true. But after a brutal

0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 7>sell off last year. Well, what's interesting to me is

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.480
<v Speaker 7>that the dollar is is up almost we do this

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:06.520
<v Speaker 7>rolling twenty day standard deviation movement off the dollar versus

0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:10.399
<v Speaker 7>ten yure government versus gold, and versus bitcoin, and what

0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.960
<v Speaker 7>we're seeing right now going to the Jackson Hall meeting

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 7>next week, is the dollar's up almost two standard deviations.

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.480
<v Speaker 7>That's a huge move on the upside. And this week

0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:21.399
<v Speaker 7>we saw a goal break below the two hundred day

0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 7>moving average, and naturally yesterday was bitcoin took it on

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 7>the chin. And I think these collateral assets are moving

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.679
<v Speaker 7>in opposite directions and direction to the dollar. So I

0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 7>think that that's what we're living with. But I.

0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:39.159
<v Speaker 4>That's interesting because Carol and I were talking about how

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 4>that had a correlation with the dollar as well, when

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.440
<v Speaker 4>you're talking about what that means for stock prices too,

0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 4>but for bitcoin in particular, because earlier this year, especially

0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:50.119
<v Speaker 4>when it came in March, that turned into one of

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:52.639
<v Speaker 4>those particular assets that we're actually rallying in addition to

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 4>technology stocks. But I'm curious as far as the dynamic

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.720
<v Speaker 4>right now between what's happening with bitcoin and obviously what

0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:00.639
<v Speaker 4>we're seeing with the bond market at this point.

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.320
<v Speaker 7>Well, we had the two year, the five year, ten year,

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.520
<v Speaker 7>and the twenty year government bond yields all screaming this week,

0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 7>and that makes it very difficult for alternative asset classes.

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.359
<v Speaker 7>And I think that sort of risk off is clearly

0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:18.639
<v Speaker 7>is the trade rate now, and that's part of that contagion.

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:23.280
<v Speaker 7>But bitcoin did take off after Silicon Valley bankruptcy. We

0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 7>did see that. What's interesting to me is that it's

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:28.399
<v Speaker 7>not as over sold as it was a year ago

0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:32.359
<v Speaker 7>in May of twenty twenty two. Is actually when you

0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:35.359
<v Speaker 7>look at the elasticity, the movement, the bands of how

0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.720
<v Speaker 7>much it goes up over twenty days versus down twenty days,

0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:42.720
<v Speaker 7>it was actually more over sold last year or when

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 7>FTX blew up.

0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:46.960
<v Speaker 2>Hey, listen, if you can, Frank, tell us little bit

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.400
<v Speaker 2>about your business, because you guys are certainly you know,

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:53.359
<v Speaker 2>involved in I feel like you know so much that

0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.240
<v Speaker 2>we talk about, whether it's the connection of AI the

0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.080
<v Speaker 2>web three digital transformation. I'll look a little bit at

0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:00.879
<v Speaker 2>your website in terms of of the things that you

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:04.439
<v Speaker 2>guys are involved in. You're operating massive data centers, are

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:06.399
<v Speaker 2>you building new ones? Give me an idea of the

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.080
<v Speaker 2>business environment and where you guys are spending the most

0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:10.919
<v Speaker 2>money and the most time in the most effort.

0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:14.959
<v Speaker 7>The biggest growth is AI, clearly, and we have the

0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 7>most experience. High was the first to use GPU chips

0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 7>and has first actually crypto money company ever go public

0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 7>in twenty seventeen, and it ushered in many other companies

0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:28.920
<v Speaker 7>coming into the space. Well, we've been taking our data

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:31.240
<v Speaker 7>centers and slowly been building out and last year we

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.480
<v Speaker 7>purchased almost seventy million dollars of these high performance and

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.399
<v Speaker 7>VIDIA chips, and now we're building out the expansion of that.

0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:41.479
<v Speaker 7>And we see that as much more stable, high profit

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:45.640
<v Speaker 7>margin business than actually bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining has these

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:49.679
<v Speaker 7>incredible moves to it where your profit margin expands dramatically

0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 7>and then all of a sudden it contracts. So our

0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:57.560
<v Speaker 7>focus clearly for bitcoin mining. We will double our footprint

0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:00.920
<v Speaker 7>over the next six months, but they're real growth opportunity

0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:04.600
<v Speaker 7>is clearly the reconfiguring of our data centers into AI

0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 7>take a little.

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:07.600
<v Speaker 2>Bit deeper into those numbers for us. So give us

0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:11.359
<v Speaker 2>an idea bitcoin mining, which has been your big business.

0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:15.000
<v Speaker 2>How much is that still your big business? But give

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.359
<v Speaker 2>us an idea of the AI side of the business

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.200
<v Speaker 2>and the kind of growth you're seeing, and does that

0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:24.200
<v Speaker 2>essentially become the business in three years, five years? Tenure

0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:25.200
<v Speaker 2>help us out here.

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 7>You looked at it today, it would be ten million,

0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:33.800
<v Speaker 7>say eight million a month, and you're making about two

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:40.959
<v Speaker 7>million a month. With AI that number would be making

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.960
<v Speaker 7>six million a month on eight million dollars. So it's

0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 7>a ninety eighty to ninety percent groast margin business and

0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:53.160
<v Speaker 7>you're actually less expensive than the AWS or the Google,

0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 7>et cetera. And so the whole chat GBT is exploded.

0:21:57.560 --> 0:22:01.080
<v Speaker 7>That demand for are a four These are four thousand,

0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 7>five thousand and six thousand chips.

0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:10.199
<v Speaker 4>Who are your clients that are using this?

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 7>Mind, it's a great question. We're B to B so

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:16.400
<v Speaker 7>we do not deal with the public, and there are

0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.480
<v Speaker 7>other service providers. Even in bitcoin mining, we do not

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:22.240
<v Speaker 7>deal with the public. We will hotle some of our

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.480
<v Speaker 7>position that has put it in the bank. Others will

0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.440
<v Speaker 7>sell to turn around and expand the operation. But when

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:31.879
<v Speaker 7>it comes to the AI, there are service providers to

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:37.439
<v Speaker 7>do all the KYCAML do all the client handholding, and

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:39.640
<v Speaker 7>they take a fee off the top for doing that.

0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:43.600
<v Speaker 7>We provide all the infrastructure and the latest of chips

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:47.000
<v Speaker 7>and they rent basically on an hourly basis.

0:22:48.080 --> 0:22:51.640
<v Speaker 2>So when you say KYC, is that you know your customer?

0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:55.199
<v Speaker 2>What does that mean? Break it down for folks, folks laundry.

0:22:55.960 --> 0:23:00.120
<v Speaker 7>When you're deal directly with a business, you have to

0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:04.560
<v Speaker 7>have people on staff that are expertise in anti money laundering,

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:08.960
<v Speaker 7>know your client rules, KYC and a m L. That

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 7>is when you have a B two C business model.

0:23:11.560 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 7>When you have a B to B, that's not what

0:23:14.080 --> 0:23:16.960
<v Speaker 7>we have to worry about. That's one reason why I'm

0:23:16.960 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 7>a fund manager and launching of Hive was was we

0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:23.600
<v Speaker 7>couldn't launch a bitcoin ETF six years ago. So we

0:23:23.720 --> 0:23:27.240
<v Speaker 7>end up co founding the creation of Hive because we

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:30.800
<v Speaker 7>basically mine the coins we create that original coin.

0:23:31.560 --> 0:23:33.760
<v Speaker 2>But it sounds like you're increasingly moving away from that

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:36.400
<v Speaker 2>business because the AI side of it is much more productive.

0:23:36.440 --> 0:23:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Is that fair?

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 7>It's it's fair because it's two parts. You know, it's

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:46.800
<v Speaker 7>a good question because we have we're mining ethereum, and

0:23:46.880 --> 0:23:50.199
<v Speaker 7>Ethereum was a very high margin business just like AI is.

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:54.520
<v Speaker 7>Uh And so with that, I think the volatility of

0:23:54.560 --> 0:23:59.040
<v Speaker 7>bitcoin will maintain itself and it'll be an ongoing business.

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:02.040
<v Speaker 7>But the real growth and big potential are these data

0:24:02.119 --> 0:24:04.960
<v Speaker 7>centers that we built and own and we continue to

0:24:05.080 --> 0:24:09.800
<v Speaker 7>expand on and the applications that are necessary with these

0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 7>chips that are out there. So I think AI, there's

0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:16.119
<v Speaker 7>no doubt, is high margin, high growth, and data centers

0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:19.719
<v Speaker 7>have huge valuations versus crypto mining stocks really don't have

0:24:20.000 --> 0:24:21.840
<v Speaker 7>the big valuation that AI has.

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 4>Are you able to use whenever you're talking about some

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:26.879
<v Speaker 4>of the data and tracking your customers as far as

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:29.399
<v Speaker 4>inflection points and how that can affect maybe the crypto

0:24:29.520 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 4>space and the prices.

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:34.800
<v Speaker 7>No, we don't. We really don't get into that. Where

0:24:34.840 --> 0:24:38.200
<v Speaker 7>we use AI would be on if you're mining any

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:41.000
<v Speaker 7>of the alternative coins and a proof of work scenario,

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:45.800
<v Speaker 7>you use AI to maximize your returns what you want

0:24:45.800 --> 0:24:49.439
<v Speaker 7>to mine, But no, we don't. That's all. It's a

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:50.800
<v Speaker 7>B to B business model.

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:54.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's really interesting, so cap x that you guys,

0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:56.919
<v Speaker 2>data centers are expensive if you're building them out, but

0:24:57.200 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 2>you know AI is going to need them. You what

0:25:00.600 --> 0:25:04.119
<v Speaker 2>are your expectations for capex over the next six to

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 2>twelve months and are you raising it? Do you feel

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:09.720
<v Speaker 2>confident enough to raise it in today's environment?

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:13.639
<v Speaker 7>We do. We feel very confident. We have a strong

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:17.800
<v Speaker 7>balance sheet, we have positive cash flow, even with bitcoin

0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.960
<v Speaker 7>where it is today, and we think that the industry

0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 7>itself is going to go through a big reckoning in

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:25.960
<v Speaker 7>the bitcoin industry because a lot of the machines that

0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 7>are mining today are not as energy is efficient and

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:33.119
<v Speaker 7>what's called a having next May and that's basically going

0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 7>to say you're going to earn half the amount of

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:38.840
<v Speaker 7>rewards of bitcoin, So bitcoin's going to have to be

0:25:38.880 --> 0:25:42.480
<v Speaker 7>over sixty thousand dollars to cover your costs. So I

0:25:42.560 --> 0:25:44.920
<v Speaker 7>don't think it's going to work out perfectly for a

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:47.920
<v Speaker 7>lot of those inefficient miners, and so we want to

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:50.159
<v Speaker 7>make sure that HIVE is in a position that we

0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 7>can deal with that, and that's what we've been doing.

0:25:52.280 --> 0:25:57.080
<v Speaker 7>So our expansion there in ASEX and along with AI

0:25:57.440 --> 0:25:59.760
<v Speaker 7>will probably be in the tune of one hundred million dollars.

0:26:00.119 --> 0:26:01.680
<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, good to check in with you and Frank,

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:03.359
<v Speaker 2>you get a t rex behind you, so you better

0:26:03.400 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 2>be careful. I think it's a t rex. It's a

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:05.879
<v Speaker 2>red one.

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:10.640
<v Speaker 7>It's it's right. It's a political statement that came out

0:26:10.680 --> 0:26:14.280
<v Speaker 7>of China by a sculpture that China's trying to eat

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:14.720
<v Speaker 7>the world.

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:16.680
<v Speaker 2>It's a fascinating sculpture.

0:26:16.760 --> 0:26:16.960
<v Speaker 7>Listen.

0:26:17.040 --> 0:26:18.640
<v Speaker 2>Good to check in with you look forward to doing

0:26:18.680 --> 0:26:22.000
<v Speaker 2>again in the future. Frank Homes, executive chairman at Hive

0:26:22.080 --> 0:26:25.280
<v Speaker 2>Digital Technologies, on Zoom from San Antonio, Texas.

0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:32.160
<v Speaker 5>I'm brother Marco, a journal How about you let me drive?

0:26:32.440 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no no, who's going to honey?

0:26:36.000 --> 0:26:37.920
<v Speaker 3>Please? I'll do the riding gravels.

0:26:38.320 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 7>Let's mate, I want to drive.

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:43.280
<v Speaker 3>It's a good question.

0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:49.200
<v Speaker 1>That tis This is the drive to the clothes.

0:26:48.800 --> 0:26:50.920
<v Speaker 3>Down cons me think well by around.

0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Yelling on on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:55.359
<v Speaker 2>All right, tiktack everybody, Just about fifteen minutes to go

0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:58.359
<v Speaker 2>until the closing bell. Carol Master along with Just met

0:26:58.440 --> 0:27:01.160
<v Speaker 2>in live in our Bloomberg Get Directive studio on YouTube

0:27:01.200 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 2>in Bloomberg Originals. As we said, Jess is in for

0:27:04.240 --> 0:27:06.679
<v Speaker 2>Tim Stenevik, who's off today, and Jess, I'm looking at

0:27:06.760 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 2>an equity trade here in the US little change a

0:27:09.520 --> 0:27:11.640
<v Speaker 2>little bit higher, but we're seeing some buying into the close.

0:27:11.760 --> 0:27:12.240
<v Speaker 2>Go figure.

0:27:12.400 --> 0:27:14.160
<v Speaker 4>And now the S and P five hundred on pace

0:27:14.280 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 4>for its worst weeks since early August. It had been

0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:18.480
<v Speaker 4>the worst care March.

0:27:19.160 --> 0:27:20.080
<v Speaker 1>So hey, there we go.

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:23.280
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, you'd think for a Friday afternoon, but things

0:27:23.400 --> 0:27:25.040
<v Speaker 4>coming off the lows there for the broader market.

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:27.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And if my understanding was volume up a little

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 2>bit today.

0:27:27.720 --> 0:27:30.399
<v Speaker 4>Yes it was. And also you'd think a summer Friday,

0:27:30.520 --> 0:27:32.080
<v Speaker 4>right where volume tends to be lighter.

0:27:33.359 --> 0:27:35.320
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, it's really kind of wacky, and right,

0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:37.879
<v Speaker 2>we have seen volumes, Dan, and I'm looking at the

0:27:37.960 --> 0:27:40.119
<v Speaker 2>major industry groups in the S and P five hundred,

0:27:40.200 --> 0:27:45.080
<v Speaker 2>specifically energy, you're out performers. You've got more major industry

0:27:45.080 --> 0:27:47.560
<v Speaker 2>groups in the S and B five hundred actually showing

0:27:47.680 --> 0:27:50.000
<v Speaker 2>some gains versus those to the decline.

0:27:49.680 --> 0:27:52.880
<v Speaker 4>Right, and communication services those are obviously more growth oriented

0:27:53.000 --> 0:27:54.840
<v Speaker 4>sector that went down close to one percent.

0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's get to it, guys. The drive to

0:27:56.600 --> 0:27:59.200
<v Speaker 2>the clothes with about fourteen minutes left in the trading session.

0:27:59.240 --> 0:28:01.639
<v Speaker 2>Sam down that is with us. He's chief investment officer

0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:05.960
<v Speaker 2>at Angel Capital Advisors. He joins us on zoom in Atlanta.

0:28:06.119 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 2>Zim Sam, good to have you here on this Friday.

0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:11.119
<v Speaker 2>It is an interesting day. We thought, we hoped, we

0:28:11.440 --> 0:28:14.640
<v Speaker 2>fingers crossed after a rather dense week, that it would

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 2>be a little bit quieter, but that's not the case.

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:20.640
<v Speaker 2>How are you thinking about the trade here? First of all,

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:22.920
<v Speaker 2>let's talk about the US market specifically. I think the

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:25.560
<v Speaker 2>S and P is on track. As just said, not

0:28:25.680 --> 0:28:27.560
<v Speaker 2>a great week, but we're down about three weeks in

0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:30.280
<v Speaker 2>a row here. What does the reset it feels like?

0:28:30.400 --> 0:28:32.879
<v Speaker 2>And US equities tell you, and really the reset if

0:28:32.920 --> 0:28:36.720
<v Speaker 2>you will, in US yields, it's.

0:28:36.640 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 8>Definitely an our view a function of yields. You know,

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.200
<v Speaker 8>where we focus as fixed income and not necessarily the

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:45.280
<v Speaker 8>equity markets. But I think equities have clearly been under

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 8>pressure this month and this week, just given the recent

0:28:49.120 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 8>rise that we've seen in risk free yields over the month.

0:28:51.880 --> 0:28:54.880
<v Speaker 8>I mean just for August alone, you know, treasury yields

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:58.080
<v Speaker 8>are up four to thirty five basis points across the curve,

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 8>and that's really been pressuring clearly stocks and other risk

0:29:02.360 --> 0:29:05.719
<v Speaker 8>assets here. But we think it's pretty interesting as an

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 8>opportunity is risk free yields and tenure note yields, for example,

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:12.920
<v Speaker 8>have reached the highest level we've seen since two thousand

0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:17.960
<v Speaker 8>and seven. So risk free yields present a huge opportunity

0:29:18.040 --> 0:29:20.000
<v Speaker 8>in our view. And while you know there may be

0:29:20.240 --> 0:29:22.720
<v Speaker 8>further room to run here, perhaps at rates in the

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 8>long end, we think it's a pretty historic opportunity, particularly

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:29.880
<v Speaker 8>in areas of mortgage backed securities, where yields are even

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:33.360
<v Speaker 8>higher even in government guaranteed mortgage backed securities today.

0:29:34.440 --> 0:29:37.440
<v Speaker 4>And so you just mentioned the positioning there as far

0:29:37.480 --> 0:29:39.840
<v Speaker 4>as what you see in opportunities when it comes to

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:44.040
<v Speaker 4>those risk free type of rates, where are you shining

0:29:44.080 --> 0:29:47.120
<v Speaker 4>away from in alternatives that you don't want to necessarily

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:48.920
<v Speaker 4>advise clients to buy at this point.

0:29:50.080 --> 0:29:53.520
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, where we've been focusing is clearly in quality and

0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 8>shorter duration areas of fixed income where you can get

0:29:57.280 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 8>these equity like returns. As I mentioned, you know, with

0:30:00.120 --> 0:30:02.360
<v Speaker 8>risk free rates surging to the extent that they have

0:30:03.520 --> 0:30:07.160
<v Speaker 8>after twenty twenty two and into twenty twenty three, you know,

0:30:07.240 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 8>investors don't have to take a tremendous amount of credit

0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 8>risk here or even just convexity risk to earn you know,

0:30:14.000 --> 0:30:17.240
<v Speaker 8>high current yields in the you know, six to nine

0:30:17.320 --> 0:30:20.600
<v Speaker 8>percent range, So you know, we're focusing on higher quality

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 8>and within the subsectors we focus on in the securitized

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 8>credit space, really focused on mortgage backed securities here binds

0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:34.200
<v Speaker 8>backed by residential mortgages, but definitely cautious towards areas, for example,

0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 8>within the CNBS space, just given some of the concerns

0:30:37.760 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 8>that we have in underlying commercial real estate.

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 4>I know you're not calling out right for a pending

0:30:44.440 --> 0:30:48.120
<v Speaker 4>recession in the near term. How do you view the

0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 4>recent batch of economic data that we've seen that shows

0:30:51.680 --> 0:30:54.960
<v Speaker 4>there's still a resilient consumer out there, especially when you're

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:57.440
<v Speaker 4>looking at those retail sales numbers and then hearing from

0:30:57.560 --> 0:30:59.880
<v Speaker 4>some of the corporates, especially on the retail side with

0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:01.400
<v Speaker 4>Walmart and others this week.

0:31:02.800 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, the consumer has been extraordinarily resilient and definitely you know,

0:31:06.200 --> 0:31:10.920
<v Speaker 8>exceeded our expectations. This year. We've been generally favorable towards

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:14.480
<v Speaker 8>the consumer, particularly in the post COVID era. We did start,

0:31:14.560 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 8>you know, getting a little more cautious h towards you know,

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:21.680
<v Speaker 8>the consumer that's been a little more impacted due due

0:31:21.720 --> 0:31:25.120
<v Speaker 8>to the inflationary pressures and and the lower real wage

0:31:25.160 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 8>growth that we were seeing. But that's that's really starting

0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 8>to change, uh, particularly as it relates to inflation coming down.

0:31:32.120 --> 0:31:32.239
<v Speaker 4>Uh.

0:31:32.520 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 8>You know, most recently, we expect inflation to continue to fall,

0:31:35.720 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 8>which should bolster real wages looking forward.

0:31:39.240 --> 0:31:39.320
<v Speaker 4>Uh.

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:42.360
<v Speaker 8>So, you know, the consumers definitely shined. And I would

0:31:42.400 --> 0:31:45.479
<v Speaker 8>say one thing that market partisemants I think are beginning

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:47.880
<v Speaker 8>to really appreciate is just a lack of interest rate

0:31:47.960 --> 0:31:51.560
<v Speaker 8>sensitivity on consumers balance sheet given you know, typically the

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:55.600
<v Speaker 8>largest liability for for US borrowers is the the you know,

0:31:55.680 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 8>their home.

0:31:56.720 --> 0:31:56.840
<v Speaker 3>Uh.

0:31:57.000 --> 0:31:59.680
<v Speaker 8>And the weighted average mortgage ready today is around three

0:31:59.720 --> 0:32:01.880
<v Speaker 8>and a half percent, and the vast majority of that,

0:32:02.000 --> 0:32:05.000
<v Speaker 8>over ninety percent is fixed rate. And I think that's

0:32:05.080 --> 0:32:08.880
<v Speaker 8>provided a tremendous amount of resilience for consumers given the

0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:11.800
<v Speaker 8>swift pace of FED tightening that we've seen not only

0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 8>on the front end but through quantitative tightening. But we

0:32:15.440 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 8>are growing increasingly cautious given how fast the FED has gone,

0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 8>particularly as it relates to asset prices generally speaking, but

0:32:24.880 --> 0:32:27.840
<v Speaker 8>we do think housing is going to be extraordinarily resilient

0:32:27.920 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 8>here just amid this recent tightening we've seen really related

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:34.880
<v Speaker 8>to the stability and the mortgage rate, So that's bolstering

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 8>the consumer as well.

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:40.479
<v Speaker 2>Hey, where's money flowing? Among your various investment options. You've

0:32:40.480 --> 0:32:42.840
<v Speaker 2>got a bunch of mutual funds, as you said, you know,

0:32:42.920 --> 0:32:45.440
<v Speaker 2>you're really all about yields or the function of yields

0:32:45.760 --> 0:32:48.560
<v Speaker 2>in terms of investments. You've got an income ETF and

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:51.960
<v Speaker 2>ultra short income ETF, you've got a multi strategy income fund.

0:32:52.280 --> 0:32:55.239
<v Speaker 2>Where is the money flowing? What kind of flows are

0:32:55.320 --> 0:32:58.040
<v Speaker 2>we seeing money move out of the safety and security

0:32:58.680 --> 0:33:02.479
<v Speaker 2>of money market are perceived safety and security of money markets?

0:33:02.560 --> 0:33:03.479
<v Speaker 2>And where is it flowing?

0:33:04.600 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 8>It's a great question. Yeah, you know, industry wide and

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:12.200
<v Speaker 8>just across the the bond complex or the fixed income complex,

0:33:12.720 --> 0:33:14.840
<v Speaker 8>you really saw a huge amount of outflows in twenty

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:18.040
<v Speaker 8>twenty two, and you saw a nice surge, I would

0:33:18.080 --> 0:33:20.640
<v Speaker 8>say at the beginning of this year from a flows perspective,

0:33:21.120 --> 0:33:24.840
<v Speaker 8>you know, into fixed income, but the vast majority of

0:33:24.920 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 8>the flows, as you well know, have really gone into

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:29.440
<v Speaker 8>the front end of the bill curve and in the

0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:32.080
<v Speaker 8>money market funds. You know, I think global money market

0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:35.360
<v Speaker 8>funds are approaching nine hundred and twenty five billion on

0:33:35.400 --> 0:33:38.480
<v Speaker 8>a year to day basis, So the vast majority of

0:33:38.760 --> 0:33:41.200
<v Speaker 8>global investors are still hiding out on the front end

0:33:41.240 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 8>of the curve. But we think, you know, we are

0:33:43.640 --> 0:33:45.440
<v Speaker 8>definitely in the camp that we are at or New

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:50.920
<v Speaker 8>York peak policy and encourage investors to really consider extending

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:53.680
<v Speaker 8>duration in both you know, hard think you're a.

0:33:53.720 --> 0:33:56.160
<v Speaker 2>Peak policy even though the world is kind of thinking

0:33:56.200 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 2>about a reset of you know, we were just talking

0:33:58.360 --> 0:34:01.400
<v Speaker 2>with our Michael McKenzie. Maybe two percent inflation just doesn't

0:34:01.400 --> 0:34:03.760
<v Speaker 2>make sense. Maybe it's more like a three percent inflation world.

0:34:04.160 --> 0:34:06.360
<v Speaker 2>Do we need to start kind of embracing are you

0:34:06.480 --> 0:34:09.120
<v Speaker 2>guys embracing the idea that maybe it's a different higher

0:34:09.200 --> 0:34:11.279
<v Speaker 2>reset when it comes to inflation, and that means maybe

0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 2>a different different investment think, you.

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:16.759
<v Speaker 8>Know, perhaps over the medium term, I think in the

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:19.160
<v Speaker 8>law in the near term, though, you know, we expect

0:34:19.239 --> 0:34:22.960
<v Speaker 8>inflation to come down pretty significantly towards the latter part

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:25.800
<v Speaker 8>of this year and into twenty twenty four. Is the

0:34:25.920 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 8>shelter component of the the inflation data continues to roll

0:34:30.040 --> 0:34:33.080
<v Speaker 8>over pretty hard, is you know, it's been very well publicized.

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 8>It's definitely a lagging part of the inflation component and

0:34:36.600 --> 0:34:40.320
<v Speaker 8>we're seeing rents falling very fast, and obviously home prices

0:34:40.400 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 8>have come off the recent highs that we experienced after COVID,

0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 8>so as that shelter component really filters into the inflation data,

0:34:48.520 --> 0:34:50.960
<v Speaker 8>we think that's going to be very supportive to you know,

0:34:51.200 --> 0:34:54.120
<v Speaker 8>a FED narrative that we'll be approaching, you know, a

0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:57.120
<v Speaker 8>potential slower growth scenarios we head end of this year

0:34:57.200 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 8>and into early next.

0:34:58.560 --> 0:35:00.640
<v Speaker 4>Sam, I have to ask, what's the top question you're

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:01.640
<v Speaker 4>hearing from your clients?

0:35:03.360 --> 0:35:06.440
<v Speaker 8>You know, the top question we're we're getting is why

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 8>are mortgages generally so cheap in today's market? You know,

0:35:10.120 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 8>agency mortgages in particular have gotten a lot of attention,

0:35:12.800 --> 0:35:15.480
<v Speaker 8>especially on uh you know, Bloomberg News and in the

0:35:15.560 --> 0:35:19.600
<v Speaker 8>headlines recently and uh, you know, agency mortgage backed securities

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:22.719
<v Speaker 8>to give you some context from a spread perspective or

0:35:22.760 --> 0:35:25.560
<v Speaker 8>at the widest levels versus treasuries that you've really seen

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:28.320
<v Speaker 8>since the financial crisis, and a lot of investors are asking,

0:35:28.760 --> 0:35:30.919
<v Speaker 8>you know, what are we missing here? What's going on there?

0:35:31.440 --> 0:35:31.560
<v Speaker 4>Uh?

0:35:31.680 --> 0:35:34.439
<v Speaker 8>In an arview is purely a function of Carol's question

0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:36.879
<v Speaker 8>on flows. You've seen a tremendous amount of flow into

0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:39.319
<v Speaker 8>the front end of the curve. UH and you've also

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:44.439
<v Speaker 8>seen banks reducing holdings from from the highs after after

0:35:44.600 --> 0:35:48.600
<v Speaker 8>COVID and QE. But you've also seen quantitative tightening implemented

0:35:48.640 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 8>in earnest and it's created a pretty historic opportunity in

0:35:51.920 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 8>ourview towards towards mortgages and just risk free assets generally speaking.

0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:57.840
<v Speaker 2>All right, good to get your thoughts on that, and

0:35:58.000 --> 0:36:00.440
<v Speaker 2>so appreciate it. Sam, Thanks for funding time for us,

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:01.719
<v Speaker 2>and have a great week, and so I'm done. Lap

0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:05.400
<v Speaker 2>CEO at angel Oakcapital Advisors, joining us on zoom in Atlanta.

0:36:06.000 --> 0:36:10.600
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