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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Sunday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Matt Parolldoff of Bettingpros dot com. We

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Speaker 1: are back for another Sunday Morning and more picks. Got

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Speaker 1: two games in baseball to get into. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: touch golf. I've had such a bad run and we're

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Speaker 1: doing really well in baseball. We're off to a six

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Speaker 1: and one start for baseball, so we're not gonna go

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Speaker 1: near golf today. Why wreck it, Why get involved. We've

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Speaker 1: been one for five over our last six bets with golf,

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna stay away from that. I'm gonna give

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Speaker 1: a couple of baseball plays today here for a Sunday. Now,

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Speaker 1: NASCAR ran their race on Thursday night, so that's why

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Speaker 1: they're not running here on a Sunday. So we'll take

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Speaker 1: a look at NASCAR coming up later on, probably next weekend.

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Speaker 1: We've got the Saint Jude coming up this week for golf,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully we'll find some angles we like going into

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Speaker 1: that tournament. But for this time, for the three m

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Speaker 1: we're gonna stay away from golf and just focus on baseball.

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Speaker 1: But to recap where we are here on a Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Now we look at Monday and we go Monday to Sunday,

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Speaker 1: so Sunday is the last day of this week. We

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Speaker 1: have had a pretty good week. We could have had

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Speaker 1: a better week, but not bad. We opened up three

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Speaker 1: and zero in baseball. Then we went one in one

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Speaker 1: with baseball, so for a four and one mark. Then

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Speaker 1: we got both baseball picks right yesterday, which was really nice.

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Speaker 1: Then unfortunately we wound up getting one golf bet wrong

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Speaker 1: with the head to head between Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka.

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Speaker 1: And then we got the Darren Till decision wrong last night.

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Speaker 1: I was right about the fight now, I said, Darren

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Speaker 1: Till versus Robert Whittaker, it could end early, It might

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Speaker 1: go to the cards. It felt like it was going

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Speaker 1: to go to the cards, but I just wasn't sure.

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Speaker 1: There were a couple of moments in that fight. In

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Speaker 1: the first round, Whittaker got knocked down by Till. In

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Speaker 1: the second round, Till got knocked down by Whittaker. A

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Speaker 1: big cut get opened up in the fifth round. I

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Speaker 1: had it three to two either way. I think Whittaker won.

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Speaker 1: I didn't have a problem. I didn't have a problem

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Speaker 1: with the decision. We had Darren Till. Till, just as

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Speaker 1: I said yesterday during the podcast, he just his output

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Speaker 1: is so low that if he gets behind on the scorecards,

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit dangerous for him because he doesn't

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Speaker 1: have the firepower to really come back. And at the

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Speaker 1: one eighty five weight class, I mean, Robert Whitaker, I

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Speaker 1: don't think he looked good. Again, I'm kind of annoyed

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Speaker 1: with the broadcasters who seem to be making friends with

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Speaker 1: certain fighters and they like certain fighters, and that they

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Speaker 1: tend to skew towards that guy. I don't think the

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Speaker 1: influence of the judging at all, but it was kind

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Speaker 1: of annoying to listen to it because I thought Whittaker

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Speaker 1: looked okay. Darren Till I thought definitely hit stronger shots.

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Speaker 1: He definitely hit him harder. But Whittaker had more punches,

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Speaker 1: had more volume, which we knew going in. I mean

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Speaker 1: strikes per round. It was basically four point five to

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Speaker 1: two point five on average, I mean, just a total

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Speaker 1: different output per minute. So it's a frustration when you

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Speaker 1: watch Darren Till and you expect him to do something

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Speaker 1: big and then he doesn't really unload. I mean, he

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Speaker 1: has to get to a point where he can let

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Speaker 1: his hands go, and he simply isn't there yet for

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Speaker 1: whatever reason, and so we don't get that decision right,

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Speaker 1: that's our only lost. So a two and one mark

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, So we sorry on Saturday. So we enter

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Speaker 1: Sunday with a six and three mark on the week.

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Speaker 1: So not bad. After a really rough week last week,

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Speaker 1: we've rebounded nicely here, in particular in baseball, where we're

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Speaker 1: gonna try to keep it going here now. Yesterday we

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Speaker 1: had a couple of crazy games. First, it was good

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Speaker 1: to see the Philly offense finally wake up. I was

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Speaker 1: getting really aggravated because the Marlins, I mean, Caleb Smith

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Speaker 1: had six I think it was six walks in two

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Speaker 1: and one thirds innings. They had seven walks on the game,

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Speaker 1: it was like nine or ten walks. The Marlins just

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Speaker 1: kept on putting Philly guys on base, and the Phillies

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Speaker 1: weren't doing anything with it. I was just kind of

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Speaker 1: getting really frustrated, going man, I mean, at some point,

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Speaker 1: all these base runners have got to get put home.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you're just playing with fire here. And finally

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Speaker 1: they erupted late in the game, biginning they win the

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Speaker 1: game going away, they cover the run line for us

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Speaker 1: so well that game correctly, And I was like just

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Speaker 1: kind of pacing around my house, going, come on, man,

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Speaker 1: like this is you look at all the stats here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Marlins are just asking for the Phillies

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Speaker 1: to get going. And what's really wild, there's a trend

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Speaker 1: here that I think we have to recognize and have

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Speaker 1: to watch a little bit. And it's actually gonna kind

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Speaker 1: of influence where I'm gonna bet for today. Strikeouts are ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: all right. It is for whatever reason, and this is

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Speaker 1: where we talked about it Thursday and Friday. I was

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Speaker 1: surprised because I thought the hitters would do well against

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Speaker 1: the pitchers well, whether they're getting tired or better arms

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Speaker 1: are coming out of the bullpen, whatever it might be.

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Speaker 1: But I watched about five games on Saturday, and the

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Speaker 1: strikeout numbers are ridiculous. Every game. I'm talking double digits,

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Speaker 1: you know, every game for both teams, just striking out

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Speaker 1: like crazy. Right now. The power arms are coming in,

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Speaker 1: the bats can't keep up. Maybe it's just like a

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Speaker 1: millisecond too slow because they're tired and they're playing in

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Speaker 1: their first full series here and they're just not ready

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Speaker 1: to go. They're not fully up to speed yet. But

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Speaker 1: right now, I would say pitchers have a better advantage

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Speaker 1: over hitters across the tire. And also, let's be frank here,

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Speaker 1: everyone's trying to hit a home run every time, so

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Speaker 1: it's home runner nothing. For a lot of times it

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Speaker 1: was scoring runs. So that's something to watch here as

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Speaker 1: we go through baseball into the first full week of

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Speaker 1: the season. And the other thing we got to watch

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Speaker 1: is that new overtime rule. So the Braves had no offense,

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Speaker 1: no offense, and it was so frustrating all the way

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Speaker 1: down to the final out in the final strike for

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Speaker 1: the Braves against the Mets. But Edwin Diaz blows the

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Speaker 1: save for the Mets and he laughs about it as

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Speaker 1: Marcelazuna hits an opposite field home run that to tie

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Speaker 1: the game at two in the top of the ninth inning,

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Speaker 1: bottom of the ninth, bottom of the ninth The Braves

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Speaker 1: get out of it and we go to extra innings.

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Speaker 1: Now that puts a runner on second base, and it

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Speaker 1: artificially manufactures offense because the Braves erupted and they put

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Speaker 1: three runs up and it was five to two as

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Speaker 1: we head to the bottom of the tenth. What was crazy, though,

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Speaker 1: Mets get the same situation, run around second base. All

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Mets had bases loaded with nobody out,

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Speaker 1: bases loaded with nobody out, he could have a walk

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Speaker 1: off grand slam. I bring this up because this could

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Speaker 1: be really dangerous for betting unders. I think betting unders

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Speaker 1: this year in baseball in general is gonna be an

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Speaker 1: absolute roller coaster ride and probably something we won't do

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Speaker 1: very much of, in particular because of the extra innings rules,

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Speaker 1: because we could see I mean, in that game alone,

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Speaker 1: there was a run scored in the top of the ninth,

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Speaker 1: and then there were three runs scored in the top

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Speaker 1: of the tenth, and then the break, and then the

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Speaker 1: Mets got one got one run back in the bottom

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Speaker 1: of the bottom of tenth. So like if they had

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Speaker 1: got more clutch hitting, I mean, that could have blown

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Speaker 1: straight through. I mean it happened two nights ago with

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Speaker 1: the A's and the Angels with the walk off grand slam,

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Speaker 1: which was eight and a half grand slam, made it

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Speaker 1: nine seven. It was what seven to three, right, three

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Speaker 1: to three going into the extra innings walk off grand slam,

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Speaker 1: So like this is going to be really crazy. Where

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Speaker 1: you call it right, you have it right. We go

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Speaker 1: to extra innings, unfortunately, and then that artificial offense gets

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Speaker 1: going and it's gonna make it very difficult for under

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Speaker 1: for unders to cash. So I think we all have

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Speaker 1: to be very, very careful. I've told you before we

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Speaker 1: got a tiptoe in with baseball, but we also got

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Speaker 1: a tiptoe in here. Playing anything on the under, like

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Speaker 1: first five, maybe it's a little safer, but getting into

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Speaker 1: the bullpens and extra innings, no, not safe, not at all.

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Speaker 1: So Phillies got the victory, turned out to be an

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Speaker 1: easy victory. We like that. And then we got the

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Speaker 1: win for the Braves against the New York Mets. It

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Speaker 1: was plus money on the run line, so that was good,

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Speaker 1: so got a little plus money on that. We didn't

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Speaker 1: lay heavy juice at all on the Braves with mins

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Speaker 1: one oh seven on the Braves, so our plus money

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Speaker 1: until did not hit unfortunately. But we play one unit

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Speaker 1: bets flat wagering, so not a horrible day for us.

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Speaker 1: We wind up up on the day and we're up

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Speaker 1: on the week. So I'm gonna go back to the

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Speaker 1: well here for the two plays. The two picks coming

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Speaker 1: up for today here on a Sunday, both in baseball.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna pick on bad teams, two bad teams, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna take teams coming off of losses who should

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Speaker 1: be pounding these bad teams. Let's start with the Reds,

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Speaker 1: whose bullpen was horrible yesterday. They had a lead three

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Speaker 1: to one early in that game. Bullpen's come in. It

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Speaker 1: was ugly, not a good game. It turns out to

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Speaker 1: be a six to four victory for the Tigers. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go back to the well here with the Reds

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna take them to win on the run line. Now,

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Speaker 1: the consensus odds here when you look at this number

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Speaker 1: pretty much somewhere around minus to ten for this, depending

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Speaker 1: on where you're looking at it, plus one ninety here

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Speaker 1: coming back, you've got Spencer Turnbull up against Trevor Bauer

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Speaker 1: for the pitching matchup. Now, let's just talk about Turnball

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Speaker 1: for a second. He was horrible at the second half

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Speaker 1: of the year. Wasn't bad during this summer camp though,

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Speaker 1: But he's got a plus average fastball. But this is

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Speaker 1: a fastball hitting team in the Reds. This dude in

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Speaker 1: the second half last year was owen nine with a

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Speaker 1: six point six zero ERA in a one point five

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Speaker 1: eight five whip. Okay, now, he was better in the

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Speaker 1: first half of the year, much better in the first

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Speaker 1: half of the year. They expec because he's been working out,

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Speaker 1: better nutrition. He thinks he's gonna have a big year

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Speaker 1: here for the Tigers. I'm not really gonna buy it here.

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Speaker 1: I think the Reds are the better team. The Reds

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Speaker 1: need to win this series. You can't lose series at home.

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Speaker 1: When it's a sixty game season. Every game is so important.

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Speaker 1: Every game is three games essentially, so you lose a

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Speaker 1: game like you lost yesterday, that stings. Reds are at home.

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Speaker 1: Red's gotta get the comeback here, gotta get a victory

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Speaker 1: and win over a bad team like the Tigers. So

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Speaker 1: because it's so juiced up, I don't love the fact

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Speaker 1: that you gotta lay to ten. Let's just lay one twenty.

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Speaker 1: Let's take it on the run line here, Reds minus

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Speaker 1: one and a half, it's minus one twenty on the

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Speaker 1: run line. Lay the one and a half runs and

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Speaker 1: take Cincinnati to Hammer Turnbull. I don't think he's a

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Speaker 1: good pitcher. I don't think this bullpen's very good. We've

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Speaker 1: seen Joey Vado hit home runs in back to back days.

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Speaker 1: Mike mustak is off to a night start here for

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Speaker 1: this offense, warm day ball should be flying out of

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Speaker 1: the ballpark with a one to ten Eastern time start.

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Speaker 1: Tigers in the Reds were taking the Reds on the

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Speaker 1: run line minus one and a half here against the Tigers.

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Speaker 1: Second pick of the day, We're gonna make a play

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Speaker 1: on my Boston Red Sox for the first time. The

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Speaker 1: Red Sox lost to the Orioles yesterday. The Orioles, who

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Speaker 1: may be the worst team in baseball. Okay, they might be.

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Speaker 1: The Orioles are horrible. Red Sox lose seven to two,

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Speaker 1: seven to two. It was a disgusting start for Martine Perez.

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Speaker 1: The bullpen comes in and they were equally as bad.

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Speaker 1: So bad that Dylan Covey, who was picked up for

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Speaker 1: basically nothing, got option to triple a Okay, bitched so

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Speaker 1: bad two innings, pitched three hits, two earned runs. Really,

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Speaker 1: when the Red Sox were trying to make some noise,

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Speaker 1: the game was hinging a little bit. It was five

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Speaker 1: to nothing. The Red Sox got two runs back. It

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Speaker 1: felt like the game could turn in the Red Sox favor,

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Speaker 1: they could get into that bullpen and hit that bullpen,

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Speaker 1: and then they gave up two runs right away, right

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Speaker 1: back in the thinning, and it was a seven to

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Speaker 1: two final against the Orioles. They'll face Wade LeBlanc, who

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Speaker 1: last year was seven and six with a five point

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Speaker 1: seven to one ERA. Okay, he was a starter in

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Speaker 1: a bullpen guy, but he's not good, not by any means.

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Speaker 1: This Ryan Weber kid for the Red Sox. You don't

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Speaker 1: know much about him, but the Red Sox they think

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Speaker 1: he can be a really solid starter for this team.

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Speaker 1: And he's getting his first start here in a rotation,

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Speaker 1: and the Red Sox believe he has a really nice

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Speaker 1: compliment of pitches and he can be a legitimate fourth

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Speaker 1: or fifth starter. Now, unfortunately he is the third starter

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Speaker 1: in this team because Chris Sail's out and with Edwin

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Speaker 1: Mariguez having COVID nineteen, they need this kid to make

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Speaker 1: a big start. Okay, the Red Sox are heavily favored,

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Speaker 1: as you would expect against a bad team. They're minus

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Speaker 1: two hundred. It's plus one eighty on the comeback. Again, though,

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Speaker 1: let's look at the run line. Red Sox minus one

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Speaker 1: fifteen on the run line, and that's just where we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go here. The Red Sox offense, they're not gonna

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Speaker 1: pitch well, they don't have great pitching. But the lineup

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Speaker 1: for the Baltimore Orioles, I mean, give me a break.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can't get you can't lose these games.

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Speaker 1: The Red Sox on Opening Day blew these guys, blew

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Speaker 1: their doors off. Okay, destroy the Orioles. I think a

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Speaker 1: similar thing is gonna happen here on Sunday. I think

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox bats are going to come to life.

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Speaker 1: And I mean I thought about playing the over, but

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Speaker 1: the total was eleven in this game. Eleven. I just

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Speaker 1: I can't really sit there and say that's a smart

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Speaker 1: move to play a total of that high. Even with

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox scoring thirteen runs in a fifteen run

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Speaker 1: game on opening Day, it was thirteen to two the final,

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Speaker 1: I still can't lay. Eleven's too high for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going near that. I might play the I mean

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Speaker 1: I was gonna be forced to play it, I probably

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Speaker 1: would play. The under. Orioles are a really bad baseball team.

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Speaker 1: I think the Red Sox are gonna come back here.

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Speaker 1: Get a win on a Sunday at Fenway Park, or

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Speaker 1: the ball should be flying out of the ballpark and

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Speaker 1: it should be one of those games where the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox just take care of business and beat up on

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Speaker 1: the Orioles. You can't lose games to the Baltimore bleeping Orioles. Yes,

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Speaker 1: maybe my Red Sox homerism is coming out just a

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Speaker 1: little bit on that. But it's a Sunday game. It's

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Speaker 1: a day game, one thirty five Eastern time start. Normally

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Speaker 1: the balls are flying around here. I just think the

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Speaker 1: Red Sox are gonna hammer le Blanc. They'll hammer that

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Speaker 1: bullpen on the run line. So two plays for us,

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Speaker 1: which guarantees a winning week. Maybe there's some strategic placement

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Speaker 1: in my picks here, but I'm gonna go with two plays,

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Speaker 1: both on the run line, both on a Sunday. We're

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Speaker 1: six and one in baseball. Try to keep our mark

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Speaker 1: rolling here. The regression will come, I promise the regression

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Speaker 1: will come. But Reds on the run line minus one twenty,

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Speaker 1: Red Sox on the run line minus one fifteen. We

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Speaker 1: will lay both of those with one unit as we

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Speaker 1: always do for a Sunday. Hopefully you guys are enjoying

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Hopefully you guys are riding some of these

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Speaker 1: plays here. We're hot in baseball, ice cold with golf,

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Speaker 1: so I'm staying away from golf today. On the three

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Speaker 1: m I was ticked off about it. I didn't like

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Speaker 1: that card last night, and then the fight just wasn't

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Speaker 1: entertaining that I thought it was going to be. But

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Speaker 1: unfortunately the cards don't go our away. When a fight

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Speaker 1: goes the distance and a fight goes into the hands

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Speaker 1: of the judges, you just kind of throw your hands up.

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Speaker 1: You don't really know what's gonna go on with that.

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Speaker 1: So only one play on that UFC card and it lost.

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Speaker 1: So two and one last night. We're back with two

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Speaker 1: plays here today. Remember tomorrow, Matt Holt from US Integrity

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Speaker 1: will be our guest. Now. Matt does a lot of

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Speaker 1: really cool stuff with sportsbooks around the country, and he's

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Speaker 1: been an awesome He's a UFC expert for starters. He's

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Speaker 1: an incredibly smart guy. But really fun conversation coming up

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Speaker 1: with Matt Holt from US Integrity coming up on the

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Speaker 1: long Form podcast on Monday. I know you guys would

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Speaker 1: both really like Nick Kolakas and Dave Shearapan Matt Holt

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Speaker 1: also really really sharp guy, really smart. He'll join us

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Speaker 1: tomorrow on the podcast, so'll definitely be back for that

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Speaker 1: coming up on a Monday morning. Best of luck to

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Speaker 1: us on baseball for this Sunday. My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Long form

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Speaker 1: edition of The Daily Juice on Monday tomorrow morning. We're

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Speaker 1: back then with that coming up on a Monday's Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice off bettingcost dot Com