Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Right Now,
Speaker 1: an important interview and important conversation with a friend of
Speaker 1: this show, David mel Pass, of course, with more than
Speaker 1: a decade of service to what we've done at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance and wisdom and perspective, and now holding court at
Speaker 1: the World Bank as their president. David, I know you
Speaker 1: never thought you would see the challenges of this pandemic.
Speaker 1: I talk of the pandemic partition of say American inequalities.
Speaker 1: Tell us the World Banks pandemic partition. What does it
Speaker 1: look like? Uh, it's it's the same or worse for
Speaker 1: developing countries and for poor countries. That takes to the
Speaker 1: inequality is two kind of different factors. One is poor
Speaker 1: people are a are worst hit by the global recession,
Speaker 1: the shutdowns UH and and the pandemic itself, so they
Speaker 1: feel the brunt of that UH. And then the second
Speaker 1: part is that the advanced economies have been doing stimulus
Speaker 1: programs that cut that concentrate on people that already have assets.
Speaker 1: That's the Central bank purchases, but it's also the fiscal
Speaker 1: stimulus from the from the Treasury Department. David, the focus
Speaker 1: of the World Bank for years has been on what
Speaker 1: I would call a third world, a frontier economy. I
Speaker 1: know those are not correct phrases. In two thousand twenty one,
Speaker 1: one of the great issues we have is accountability of cases,
Speaker 1: deaths and hospitalizations across Africa. Explain the pandemic for Africa
Speaker 1: right now in the veracity of your data at the
Speaker 1: World Bank, Uh, you know, this is a this is
Speaker 1: a cloudy area, Tom. The the death statistics aren't aren't
Speaker 1: that well kept and aren't that current, and so it's
Speaker 1: hard to tell how hard COVID is hitting people in Africa.
Speaker 1: The the original in the in the middle of there
Speaker 1: was the sense that it wasn't hitting as hard. It's
Speaker 1: different country by country. For example, South Africa has been
Speaker 1: hard hit, but other countries seeming to be less so.
Speaker 1: But now our sense is that it's that it's spreading
Speaker 1: and hitting, hitting all countries. What we want to do
Speaker 1: on vaccines, UH, is have vaccines available for everyone, including
Speaker 1: and especially the poor. And so that's that's one of
Speaker 1: the challenges to have systems that can actually deliver enough vaccines.
Speaker 1: That's exactly where I wanted to go, especially given some
Speaker 1: of the delays that we've seen in the developed world.
Speaker 1: How worried are you about the time frame for distributing
Speaker 1: the vaccine in the developing world? High Lisa? What what
Speaker 1: the World Banker has done? We've we passed in October
Speaker 1: twelve billion dollar package through the board UH, and that's
Speaker 1: available and are the first step is to assess countries
Speaker 1: and see what they need in terms of cold chain,
Speaker 1: in terms of identifying the people that need the vaccine
Speaker 1: the most. So that work is underway in a hundred
Speaker 1: countries UH. And then the next step is actual contracts.
Speaker 1: One of the challenges is to have a common contract
Speaker 1: where people can UH, where people can see the the
Speaker 1: UH the same terms and and actually operate on them UH.
Speaker 1: And so we're working on that. And then another another
Speaker 1: immediate problem is in dimnification. FISER has been hesitant to
Speaker 1: go into some of the countries because of the UH
Speaker 1: liability problems or they don't have a liability shield. So
Speaker 1: we work with the countries to try to do that.
Speaker 1: But I think also some of the other vaccine manufacturers
Speaker 1: may be able to go into countries because they're operating
Speaker 1: through subsidiaries. This is all something that we're exploring and
Speaker 1: our goal. My goal is to have vaccines available for
Speaker 1: people throughout the developing world based on what their countries decide.
Speaker 1: We've got financing available, but that the countries need to
Speaker 1: choose systems and then begin buying or or receiving the vaccines.
Speaker 1: We're speaking with David Malpass, World Bank President. David, you
Speaker 1: talk about how the programs that have salvaged the global
Speaker 1: economy have really benefited the wealthiest individuals who have assets,
Speaker 1: not so much people at the bottom, and this has
Speaker 1: to do with the economies as well. How worried are
Speaker 1: you about the overhang of debt in the emerging world
Speaker 1: as we do get this ongoing economic pain without a
Speaker 1: vaccine distribution model that seems to be taking course quickly
Speaker 1: enough for many people's tastes. Uh, It's it's challenging to
Speaker 1: keep private sectors open. What we've tried to do through
Speaker 1: the i f C, the International Finance Corporation, the private
Speaker 1: sector arm of the World Bank is to provide working
Speaker 1: capital and trade finance so that the private sectors that
Speaker 1: do operate in poorer countries can continue to uh to
Speaker 1: to operate. But a challenge in the world in with
Speaker 1: given that interest rates are low for a long period
Speaker 1: of time, and that's being accomplished in part by by
Speaker 1: borrowing short term and having the government's invest long term.
Speaker 1: Think think about that the central banks borrow overnight money
Speaker 1: and put it into long term bonds. That disadvantages the
Speaker 1: small businesses because they need that money. The overnight money
Speaker 1: is what they live on in terms of working capital.
Speaker 1: Uh and so it's not just in the developing world,
Speaker 1: but in the advanced economies. The dichotomy, the inequality that
Speaker 1: comes out of that is a big challenge because you're
Speaker 1: losing the small business sector of the world. David meyle Pass,
Speaker 1: I've got to digress to US politics. You of course
Speaker 1: provided public service to the nation working for President Trump.
Speaker 1: I believe now there's going to be a new relationship
Speaker 1: of your World Bank and President by and of course
Speaker 1: the International Monetary Fund Kittie corner to you there to
Speaker 1: the west of the White House. David meyl Pass, how
Speaker 1: do you adapt adjust or you're oblivious to a new
Speaker 1: US administration. Uh, not oblivious. The US is our biggest shareholders,
Speaker 1: so we're very aware of what their their interests and
Speaker 1: goals are as we are of other countries, the developing
Speaker 1: countries included. You know, we one of the big voices
Speaker 1: within the World Bank is the voice of the developing
Speaker 1: countries through our Board of Directors. So we listen to
Speaker 1: all parties and we've been successful in the past in
Speaker 1: working across the aisle in in in all of the
Speaker 1: major shareholders. So I expect that to continue. One you that, uh,
Speaker 1: that where the US I think will be supportive of
Speaker 1: the of the climate policies of the World Bank. You know,
Speaker 1: the World Bank is the biggest UH international financier of
Speaker 1: of climate change activities. For example, in the poorer nations
Speaker 1: they need to adapt to to climate changes, uh and
Speaker 1: and we we put a lot of funding into that.
Speaker 1: So I think we'll see strong support from the US
Speaker 1: on that kind of agenda as well. So I'm looking
Speaker 1: forward to working with the new with the new administration,
Speaker 1: but we're non political, so uh we we I want
Speaker 1: to see people in developing countries do better. That's the
Speaker 1: that's the goal and the mission. Well, when you talk
Speaker 1: about being a political it still puts you into a
Speaker 1: somewhat sensitive place a lot of the time. And I'm
Speaker 1: thinking of some of your comments about China and how
Speaker 1: they hadn't been aggressive enough in your view with debt
Speaker 1: relief for poor nation and has given their primary role
Speaker 1: over the past few years accepting debt to these countries.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like they have gotten better with debt relief?
Speaker 1: Has have you changed it all over the recent months. Uh? Well,
Speaker 1: they've been changing um and and they're a full participant
Speaker 1: in the G twenty, the Group of twenty major economies,
Speaker 1: and so during I was happy to see, you know,
Speaker 1: I I went forward along with Crystallina at the i
Speaker 1: m F with the idea that there should be a
Speaker 1: moratorium on the payments by the poorest countries to their creditors,
Speaker 1: the official bilateral creditors of which China is the largest,
Speaker 1: and also the private sector creditors. So China subscribe to
Speaker 1: that and and is trying to move in that direction.
Speaker 1: So I don't see that there will be a change
Speaker 1: in that. I think the big countries want to find
Speaker 1: a way to work on this debt overhang. It's it's
Speaker 1: it's Uh, it's very worrisome because it's hard to invest
Speaker 1: into a poor country if that, if so much of
Speaker 1: their resources are having to go to repay past debt.
Speaker 1: David mel Pass folks as one of those famous charts
Speaker 1: in the history of everything I've done, and that is
Speaker 1: golden in terms. We're not going to ask him for
Speaker 1: a market called as President of the World Bank, but
Speaker 1: I am, David gonna link it into your knowledge at
Speaker 1: the World Bank about the commodity nations. Can you call
Speaker 1: a turn for the beleaguered commodity nations? Are they finally
Speaker 1: going to see a bid on their various commodities? Tom
Speaker 1: this is a court. You know. We have our new
Speaker 1: Global Economic Prospects report that just came out yesterday, so
Speaker 1: we addressed the some of the some of the outlook
Speaker 1: or the forecast. But one of the one of the
Speaker 1: unknowns I think is as the central banks have created stimulus,
Speaker 1: what what's the mechanism for that? You know? My view
Speaker 1: is it is not money printing that they're doing. What
Speaker 1: they're doing is buying duration, so they they borrow short
Speaker 1: term and by long term assets that by itself is
Speaker 1: not inflationary. Uh. And the forecast that people have of
Speaker 1: the inflation outlook still don't show that there would be inflation.
Speaker 1: So I'm a concern for commodity producers is they do
Speaker 1: better in a red hot world. You know, where there's
Speaker 1: where there's inflationary pressures. Uh. And right now I'm I'm
Speaker 1: worried about or my I think the bigger challenge is
Speaker 1: to get enough GDP growth meaning nominal nominal supply the
Speaker 1: production side of the global economy up and running and recovering. Yep,
Speaker 1: We're gonna end this interview because I'm gonna asked David
Speaker 1: mel pass for a remand call and he's gonna people that.
Speaker 1: David mel Bess, thank you so much. He is President
Speaker 1: of the World Bank. In this changing world inflation over
Speaker 1: the next ten years. To get one for it in
Speaker 1: your treasury, you're losing money in real terms, Tom, And
Speaker 1: that is the conundrum. The other conundrum is is this
Speaker 1: a head fake the move that we're seeing today both
Speaker 1: in treasury yields and beyond. And Marcabanna has been covering
Speaker 1: all things rates. Bank of America Global Research, Head of
Speaker 1: US Rate Strategy, Mark, I'd love your sense of that.
Speaker 1: In other words, yield a kind of peeked out here
Speaker 1: and could be headed lower as people reassess the enthusiasm
Speaker 1: about faster growth and more stimulus. They could, but what
Speaker 1: we anticipate is that rates will gradually rise to around
Speaker 1: one and a half percent by the end of this year. Now,
Speaker 1: we had assume that even with the base case of
Speaker 1: a divided government, if the Democrats do end up winning
Speaker 1: both of these Georgia seats to us, that raises the
Speaker 1: risks that you see the rate repricing occur a little
Speaker 1: bit faster and potentially higher than we anticipate. Now, there's
Speaker 1: a number of headwinds in the near term. COVID is
Speaker 1: going to restrain economic activity in Q one, but we
Speaker 1: do anticipate that as the vaccine is rolled out and
Speaker 1: as global growth and US growth picks up, you're going
Speaker 1: to see long end rates reprice is higher. And importantly,
Speaker 1: we think that this long end rate repricing will be
Speaker 1: due to quote unquote healthy factors i eat, better growth,
Speaker 1: higher inflation expectations as the economy recovers, and if the
Speaker 1: Democrats when both of these Georgia seats, it naturally means
Speaker 1: more fiscal stimulus and likely higher deficits as well, how
Speaker 1: high can treasury yields go before the Fed steps in.
Speaker 1: So we think that it's less about a level and
Speaker 1: it's more about the set of conditions that's pushing rates higher.
Speaker 1: If you see this again quote unquote healthy rate repricing,
Speaker 1: where you see higher break evens, where you see stable
Speaker 1: to higher risk asset prices, a stable to weaker dollar,
Speaker 1: there's no real level that we think the Fed is
Speaker 1: going to grow uncomfortable with. However, if you see this
Speaker 1: rate move that is in a liquid move, or it's
Speaker 1: due to concerns over too much treasury supply, that's when
Speaker 1: the Fed will step in. And just as you and
Speaker 1: Tom were talking about, we think that it's really all
Speaker 1: about the distribution between break evens and real rates. If
Speaker 1: rates are rising because rate evens are widening, the FED
Speaker 1: is going to see that as a generally healthy move
Speaker 1: and they're not going to step in and offset it. Now,
Speaker 1: if you saw rates really quickly moved to one and
Speaker 1: a half percent, that would probably be a bit more
Speaker 1: than the economy can handle at present, and the Fed
Speaker 1: would need to offset that. But if it's a more
Speaker 1: gradual move, then we think that the Fed will likely
Speaker 1: tolerate and you know, in fact, embrace the move if
Speaker 1: it's driven by better inflation expectations. Although mark as we're
Speaker 1: seeing today in the big tech stocks and other stocks
Speaker 1: that are considered havens or other securities that are riskier
Speaker 1: that have been bit up in large part because of
Speaker 1: how low bond yields are. There is a question of
Speaker 1: whether the Federal respond to a disruption and financial conditions, or,
Speaker 1: if you want to put it more bluntly, a sell
Speaker 1: off in anything and step in, or perhaps you know,
Speaker 1: try to suppress yields quicker than may other be worthwhile
Speaker 1: just to keep everything intact and make it look like
Speaker 1: everyone's happy and still getting gains. Absolutely, so, the Fed
Speaker 1: is looking at financial conditions broadly, and they do not
Speaker 1: want to see a d stave realizing rise in long
Speaker 1: term interest rates that causes financial conditions to tighten materially
Speaker 1: and that causes the economy to slow down. But are
Speaker 1: they concerned about a couple of percentage points sell off
Speaker 1: in tech stocks when they've had such an incredible run. No, not.
Speaker 1: In particular, would they be concerned if that turned into
Speaker 1: a correction, Yes, And would they be concerned if there
Speaker 1: were signs that two high interest rates were beginning to
Speaker 1: in the real economy, I US slowing down the housing market, um,
Speaker 1: things of that nature. That's when the Fed would get concerned.
Speaker 1: But I think that you know, seeing the tenure yield
Speaker 1: just above one percent does not yet seem to be
Speaker 1: a level whereby those long end rates are really beginning
Speaker 1: to bite in terms of the real economy and broader
Speaker 1: financial conditions. Mark grow nerd to the bull market in
Speaker 1: the equity space, whether it's double digit tech returns, even
Speaker 1: what we're beginning to see in small cap recovering so nicely.
Speaker 1: We forget that if I look at Bloomberg Barkley's total return,
Speaker 1: it's been a persistent bullmarket of higher pro a slower
Speaker 1: yield in years space. Have we forgotten what a bond
Speaker 1: bear market is to some extent, Yes, given that you know,
Speaker 1: US interest rates have recently been at historic lows. The
Speaker 1: equity market did incredibly well despite the pandemic, and I
Speaker 1: think that the market is going to have to adjust
Speaker 1: to the notion that long and interest rates will be rising.
Speaker 1: Now again, we think that this rate rise will not
Speaker 1: necessarily constrain the economy in a material way. If it does,
Speaker 1: the federal step in But I think investors are going
Speaker 1: to have to get accustomed to the fact that they
Speaker 1: should expect to see at least the prices of bonds
Speaker 1: go down to some extent as rates ree price in
Speaker 1: growth and inflation does pick up over time. We welcome
Speaker 1: all of you on this historic day in Washington, Mark
Speaker 1: Cabana of the Bank of America with us here on rates.
Speaker 1: And we do this with futures red and green in
Speaker 1: the screen. A little bit better tape than three hours ago. Uh.
Speaker 1: The yield one point zero one percent. Mark Cabanna, I
Speaker 1: want you to talk to savers out there, not the
Speaker 1: fancy guys like you doing fancy hedging strategies and trying
Speaker 1: to manage with a higher price, higher yield, lower price. Uh,
Speaker 1: Mill you, what does the average person do in fixed income?
Speaker 1: If you're telling me higher yield and lesser price. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I think that if you're a saver, what you
Speaker 1: wanna do is that you want to carefully think about
Speaker 1: extending out the curve, trying to pick up some additional
Speaker 1: yield based upon your own risk tolerance and your comfort level.
Speaker 1: Maybe you think about moving into the corporate space more
Speaker 1: than the government space. But you're gonna have to be careful,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna have to recognize that you want to
Speaker 1: leg into this strategy over time, because we do anticipate
Speaker 1: that rates will be slowly rising. Now, if you're an
Speaker 1: institutional investor, what you want to do is that you
Speaker 1: probably want to hew a little bit shorter on your
Speaker 1: overall duration allocation as do re price higher. Now, we
Speaker 1: do think that that it's it's great that we're seeing
Speaker 1: rates move today. I'm given some of the news out
Speaker 1: of Georgia and the implications that it has for Washington,
Speaker 1: But we still think that fundamentally, the big rate repricing
Speaker 1: that we see towards one and a half percent will
Speaker 1: likely take place in Q two or later again, as
Speaker 1: the vaccine has rolled out and as we get confirmation
Speaker 1: the economy is indeed recovering on a price yield basis.
Speaker 1: The fancy guys talk about duration in the second derivative convexity,
Speaker 1: which I'm gonna call acceleration. Guys like you call it gamma.
Speaker 1: I don't MiG And do you know what gamma means?
Speaker 1: I have no idea what gamma means. How about convexity,
Speaker 1: Mark Cabanah, what is going to be the accelerated forces
Speaker 1: as we go through two thousand one. Well, so as
Speaker 1: we go through two twenty one, what we do you
Speaker 1: think that we do think we're going to see again
Speaker 1: is that sell off that will likely really accelerate again
Speaker 1: from Q two onwards. Q one is going to have
Speaker 1: a very significant headwind from COVID. We don't know how
Speaker 1: effective the anybody treatments will be to the new strain
Speaker 1: of the vaccine. We don't know how quickly vaccines will
Speaker 1: be rolled out, but after that is generally behind us.
Speaker 1: We do think that the rate will need to reprice
Speaker 1: to the new reality of strong fiscal fairy tale winds
Speaker 1: and the fact that we're likely going to see the
Speaker 1: economy operate meaningfully above trend from Q two through the
Speaker 1: end of the year, and that we think is going
Speaker 1: to take rates higher. So we do expect to see
Speaker 1: a more accelerated move later in the and today it
Speaker 1: just seems like the market is repricing a bit more
Speaker 1: to the fact that you need to assign higher odds
Speaker 1: to a democratic control of the Senate than you did previously.
Speaker 1: Mark Obanna, thank you so much for the Bank of
Speaker 1: America splipperg surveillance, folks, on radio and television. It runs
Speaker 1: like a Swiss watch, and within that you get lucky
Speaker 1: when you have guests. John Lieber is with US Now
Speaker 1: with your Asia Group, Managing director for the United States,
Speaker 1: but also expert on policy and international policy for America.
Speaker 1: Here is the breaking news. On November twelve, the President
Speaker 1: put out an extensive executive order essentially really saying We're
Speaker 1: not going to do business with China companies because of
Speaker 1: their linkage to China military. To make a long story short,
Speaker 1: everybody reacted, and then Treasury dropped a bombshell Monday evening
Speaker 1: and said no, and I mean literally the sentence, folks,
Speaker 1: was an oh period. Moments ago, the New York Stock
Speaker 1: Exchange announced a suspension date for securities of three issuers
Speaker 1: and proceeds with delisting. John Lieber, it's unfair to catch
Speaker 1: you like this. This is truly breaking news. What are
Speaker 1: the ramifications that you see of a strident policy against
Speaker 1: financial instruments of China in our global and American financial system.
Speaker 1: The threat here is of retaliation that you know, the
Speaker 1: Chinese figure out they don't need American financial markets, and
Speaker 1: that doesn't seem like that would be obvious right now,
Speaker 1: but that over time that could certainly develop, and you know,
Speaker 1: the US are missing out on these listings. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, this policy, some of these companies don't simply
Speaker 1: don't live up to American standards of transparency of um uh,
Speaker 1: you know, on accounting standards. And as a result of that,
Speaker 1: you know, this this policy is need a little bit overdue,
Speaker 1: and I think would be politically popular if the Treasury
Speaker 1: had the will to see it through, if we started
Speaker 1: with this with the Democrats and the Republicans. One of
Speaker 1: the few things are on the same page on which
Speaker 1: isn't more strident approach to President gi and Beijing. If
Speaker 1: that's the reality, do you see you raise your group
Speaker 1: a Biden Trump differential off of the strident executive order
Speaker 1: of President Trump November twelve. Know, what you'll see is
Speaker 1: a little bit more process around the Biden administration, a
Speaker 1: little bit more transparency into the direction they're heading. And
Speaker 1: you know, this rule, this December rule executive order has
Speaker 1: been criticized for being kind slap dash or haphazard and
Speaker 1: a little bit confusing to follow, which I think is
Speaker 1: you're seeing now in its implementation. And so I think
Speaker 1: the Biden people have the opportunity to potentially reframe it
Speaker 1: or perhaps even withdrawn and then issue it in a
Speaker 1: new form. And that's all subjects going to be a
Speaker 1: point of subject to negotiations with the Chinese. And I
Speaker 1: think that's an important point to keep in mind about
Speaker 1: all of everything President Trump has done visa be China.
Speaker 1: This is all leverage and negotiating points that President President
Speaker 1: Biden will be able to use to get concessions out
Speaker 1: of the Chinese. And he starts in a very strong
Speaker 1: stance with pretty restrict things in place with terrorists, and
Speaker 1: that can all be negotiated down over time if the
Speaker 1: Chinese want to do that. And that's really what we
Speaker 1: don't know right now is how desper they to try
Speaker 1: to undo some of the damage that Trump has done
Speaker 1: to the trading relationship. So John, as it relates to
Speaker 1: the U. S. China relationship, and now it appears that
Speaker 1: the president like Biden may have control of the Senate
Speaker 1: as well, how do you expect the Biden administration to
Speaker 1: deal with China easy? The our other allies is it?
Speaker 1: You know, obviously President Trump was kind of America first.
Speaker 1: How do you expect the president like Biden to kind
Speaker 1: of try to re engage with other countries around the
Speaker 1: world as it relates to China. Well, there's an obvious
Speaker 1: opportunity here for an anti China coalition which would probably
Speaker 1: be more effective in isolating them from the global trading order.
Speaker 1: That's sort of the approach of the Obama administration. It
Speaker 1: was the theory behind the Transtacific Partnership, which is probably dead.
Speaker 1: But you know, for issues like technology security, you're trying
Speaker 1: to cut Walway out of networks, You're trying to squeeze
Speaker 1: the Chinese financial sector, You're trying to gain more market
Speaker 1: access and better intellectual and property enforcement. Coordinated measures with
Speaker 1: the European allies and Asian allies is something I think
Speaker 1: the Biden administration is going to be very easier to do,
Speaker 1: given you expected approach on multilateralism. Tell us of your
Speaker 1: top risks of Asia and of Washington, John Lieber, your
Speaker 1: view off of what you and Dr Bremer of it.
Speaker 1: You know, the top risk that we've highlighted in the
Speaker 1: US this year is what we'd called the Astis presidency,
Speaker 1: where you've got Joe Biden, who has been duly elected
Speaker 1: President of the United States yet the legitimacy of that
Speaker 1: presidency is rejected by a large chunk of the seventy
Speaker 1: four million voters that support President Trump. And the reason
Speaker 1: it's rejected is because President Trump's out there spinning conspiracy
Speaker 1: theories and claiming there was fraud in the election, none
Speaker 1: of which has been borne out by the facts. But
Speaker 1: it's not going to stop a large chunk of the
Speaker 1: American population thinking that Biden is not the legitimate president.
Speaker 1: That's going to play out today at certification of the
Speaker 1: Electoral College in Congress, where Republican members of the House
Speaker 1: and Senate are going to object, and all of that's
Speaker 1: going to build to this legitimization of the Biden presidency.
Speaker 1: And this won't be the first time we've seen this.
Speaker 1: We had people who said Bush was not my president,
Speaker 1: who said that Obama was, you know, usurping the presidency
Speaker 1: because he was actually a born in Kenya and whatever
Speaker 1: because our lines they wanted to put out there. And
Speaker 1: we had a lot of Democrats legitimizing President Trump through
Speaker 1: the Russian conspiracy. So this delegitimization of the presidency is
Speaker 1: a function of political polarization in the US, and it's
Speaker 1: going to make it really hard for biding to do
Speaker 1: anything on a bipartisan basis. John Lieber, thank you so much. Greatly.
Speaker 1: We don't even have time to get to his relationship
Speaker 1: with Senator McConnell, his history with a senator from Kentucky.
Speaker 1: A busy day, John Lieber, thank you so much. With
Speaker 1: your Razor group. She is in Atlanta, and yes she's
Speaker 1: watching the political storm, but mostly she is focused on
Speaker 1: the extraordinary pandemic that we are all living. Jody Guest
Speaker 1: is with Emory University, her leadership at Roland School of
Speaker 1: Public Health, not only on the fancy word epidemiology, by
Speaker 1: by getting the word out her teaching awards, speak volumes
Speaker 1: about yell loudly and get this fixed right now. Dr Guests,
Speaker 1: thank you for so much for joining us. Peter Hotez,
Speaker 1: a Baylor Metis Sin was so upset yesterday about the
Speaker 1: slowness of the vaccine. What do we need to do
Speaker 1: to make you and Dr Hotez happier about getting this
Speaker 1: vaccine out there? I think that there are two things
Speaker 1: it's so important to get this vaccine out. First, we
Speaker 1: need to make sure that the American population and everyone
Speaker 1: around the globe trust that this vaccine is the right
Speaker 1: thing to do for them, and so that's one issue.
Speaker 1: And then the other is the logistics of a rollout
Speaker 1: of a vaccine strategy that we've just never seen the
Speaker 1: likes of to try to vaccinate the entire globe almost
Speaker 1: at this exact same time, and so that's logistically a
Speaker 1: massive challenge that we've not yet tackled. My experience of
Speaker 1: the philanthropy and I mentioned Bill and Melinda Gates and
Speaker 1: what they've done for microbiology and virology as well, or
Speaker 1: frankly for public officials, is a rollout of a medical
Speaker 1: solution takes money? Is that all this is about. I
Speaker 1: think it's money. UM. In the audited States, the states
Speaker 1: individually are responsible for vaccine rollout, and they weren't given
Speaker 1: enough money to staff correctly and in the leeway of
Speaker 1: time to plan this was not super long, and so UM,
Speaker 1: while they were trying to test and control the virus
Speaker 1: in the state, they we also needed to be putting
Speaker 1: together a very big infrastructure for rollout of vaccine, and
Speaker 1: so we're behind on that part. I do think that
Speaker 1: once it starts working well, you'll see it exponentially pick
Speaker 1: up in its speed and efficiency and we're all really
Speaker 1: hopeful and waiting for that. Jody, I look at you. Know,
Speaker 1: this is a delicate question, folks, and I say this
Speaker 1: is great respect all the people that have helped us
Speaker 1: un surveillance during this pandemic. Is there an arch medical
Speaker 1: timidity now that we're so worried about risk in the
Speaker 1: secondary and tertiary risk to a process that we're literally
Speaker 1: afraid to roll out a vaccine and put the needle
Speaker 1: in our arms. I think it the science communication about
Speaker 1: this vaccine has not been always positive and has not
Speaker 1: been as straightforward as we needed to have a lot
Speaker 1: of trust consistently across all communities in the United States
Speaker 1: with this vaccine, and I think that that's really where
Speaker 1: we're seeing some timidity, to use your word, coming from,
Speaker 1: and we do need to work on that. Is there
Speaker 1: for a pro like you and you've seen it all.
Speaker 1: Is there is there a tangible shift from a Trump
Speaker 1: administration to the Biden administration or is that just wistful
Speaker 1: thinking by the medical community. I don't think it's wishful thinking.
Speaker 1: I think that so far what we've seen is some
Speaker 1: incredible public health folks being put in place who we
Speaker 1: know and trust and know not only to be wonderful
Speaker 1: public health leaders, but also really incredible science communicators, and
Speaker 1: that is what we need out in front of everyone.
Speaker 1: Are really straightforward, one consistent message about what we're talking
Speaker 1: about with this vaccine and how important it is for
Speaker 1: all of us to have trust in this and to
Speaker 1: make the right decision for us personally, but that it's
Speaker 1: going to take a large percentage of us to want
Speaker 1: to take this vaccine and then get it to get
Speaker 1: back to our our normal life that we all want. Jody,
Speaker 1: you are in Atlanta. I want you to defend right
Speaker 1: now Atlanta three zero three for one, which is the
Speaker 1: c d C. Folks. A million years ago it was
Speaker 1: my fondest hope to possibly get a job someday A's
Speaker 1: c d C. They have had a tough couple of
Speaker 1: years defend the institution, you know, so well, Oh they're
Speaker 1: incredible minds are there. They have not um been um
Speaker 1: as vocal as we would like about this pandemic. But
Speaker 1: that is not because they're not doing good work. That's
Speaker 1: because public health has been made so bipartisan and CDC
Speaker 1: has been caught in the middle of that. There are
Speaker 1: prodible people who have consistently done wonderful work during this
Speaker 1: pandemic at the CDC, and we're hearing from them again
Speaker 1: and we're about to have an incredible leader at the CDC,
Speaker 1: and UM, we're really excited to have them leading us
Speaker 1: again through this pandemic as they should be. Dr Guess,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. My advice is steer clear of politics.
Speaker 1: Today from Atlanta and Emory University, Jody Guests joins us
Speaker 1: this morning. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio