1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: read enough. 3 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 2: For running again, so smoothe so sweet, slipid. 4 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 3: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is 5 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 3: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and. 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet. 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying. 11 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 3: The love is left too, the wide eyed. 12 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 4: Drilled fibus how old earth? 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Helloy one. Welcome back to Wondergool, the 14 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network, presented you by 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: Bet three six five. My name is Michael Leeboff and 16 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: joining me for this our Euro twenty twenty four semi 17 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 1: final preview, j Conneham and Sam Ingram. Together we're gonna 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: go through both matches, Spain versus France on one side 19 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: of the bracket. That's Tuesday three pm Eastern Time, eight 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: pm British summertime, and then Netherlands and England the next 21 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 1: day at three pm on Wednesday, I will start with 22 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: Spain and France. I think both of these matchups are 23 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 1: styles make fights a little oil and vinegar. Both feature 24 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 1: matchups that where one team wants to do something very 25 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: different from the other, and we could get into a 26 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: little bit of an arm wrestle in in that regard. 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: I don't know which one is more drastic of the difference, 28 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: I really don't because whereas like Spain you think of them, 29 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: they they're flair and technical ability, especially in the middle 30 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: of the park, and their youth and their vibrancy against 31 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: this Didder de Champs French team which is all about 32 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: you know, experience and staying in can troll. I mean it, 33 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: it feels a little bit more drastic I think than 34 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: England versus Netherlands and the styles that they'll play. But 35 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: we can get into all that as we break them 36 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: down to qualify for the odds. The odds to qualify 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: for this match, Spain is a slight favorite minus one 38 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: twenty five. France is an even money underdog. In the 39 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: three way line sam is Spain plus one seventy France 40 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: plus two ten. The draw is plus one eighty. Should 41 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: we just expect more of the same from what we 42 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: saw in the quarterfinals, where we saw three three matches 43 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: go into extra time kind of close to the vest 44 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: or are you thinking maybe some fireworks here? 45 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 2: I think more the same With France and England involved 46 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 2: in all honesty. In Spain, Carvajwe, Norman Maratta are out. 47 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 2: I'm missing the semi after celebrating on the bench against Germany, 48 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: which just odds. 49 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 3: To really, Sam, Sam, Sorry, but that got overturned, did it? 50 00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 3: Bl card get overturned? So Marata is gonna play? Oh yeah, and. 51 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: Then just be like, oh, yeah, he's Actually that's too 52 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: In that case, I'm going to go for Spain when I'm. 53 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 4: Sorry I did. 54 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 3: Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you, but you know, 55 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: you know it's still alive. 56 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, still Marata bets are still on, so they're 57 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 2: not all suspended. Lin and Cover how are But Pedri 58 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: is injured to however, for me and I tweeted about it, 59 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: that Pedri injury early in the game, I think it 60 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 2: inadvertently won the game for Spain. In the end, Danny 61 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: Omo came on and he was excellent, really really good, 62 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 2: as was Fabi and Mauiz in the middle, and he's 63 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 2: been one of Spain's best players this tournament. And if 64 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 2: you rewind the clock back five years Louis de la 65 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 2: Fuente Spain actually beat Germany to one in the final 66 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 2: of Euro Under twenty one. Five players on that team 67 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 2: also played against the Germans in the quarter finals. You 68 00:03:54,680 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 2: know Simon, Mikeel Marino, Fabian Luiz, Danny Omo and Mikel Simono, 69 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: Spain's number one altman MAUIs for Spain's best players on 70 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 2: Friday and Moreno came on and score the winning had 71 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 2: a in a stadium, whereas Dad scored a winning goal 72 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: for Spain thirty is previous, which is a great story. 73 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 2: But I only bring this up because it's clear these 74 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 2: players know the manager, they know what he wants from them, 75 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: and they're performing and I think they'll continue to do so, 76 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: and I think they'll provide a real test against France. 77 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 4: In the other co final. 78 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 2: Portugal versus France in the first half especially that made 79 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 2: watching paint dry look like an extreme sport. We had 80 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: zero point zero seven x g that was Portugal and 81 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 2: France had zero point zero eight x G. So that 82 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 2: was the first game at Euro twenty twenty four to 83 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 2: see less than zero point two XG in the first half. 84 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 4: So that was awful. 85 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 2: It kind of livened up a bit in the second 86 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 2: forty five, but yeah, Neil, neil all the way through 87 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 2: to penalties, France win. France reached the semi finals of 88 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 2: Euro twenty twenty four despite failing to score from any 89 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 2: of their eighties non penalty shots. 90 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 4: I'm sure you've heard all the stats pedaled. 91 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 2: Out around that, and looking at this game, looking at 92 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 2: the prices, I can get my head around why some 93 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 2: people would want to bet on Spain. I can understand 94 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 2: why some people would think maybe their favorites in this game, 95 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: going off performances in this tournament alone. 96 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 4: For me, France shouldn't be underdogs. 97 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 2: With Spain's absentees and Frances know how a major tournaments 98 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 2: in recent years. 99 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 4: I'm shocked Spain a favorites. 100 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 2: I have France down as value to win a ninety 101 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: and also to qualify. And I think we've got to 102 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 2: remember what we're betting on here. This isn't a group 103 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: stage match, it's not the nation's league, it's not an 104 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 2: international friendly. This is a major tournament semi final. The 105 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 2: weight of a country is on these players back. It's 106 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 2: the stage of the tournament that France often reaches, often 107 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 2: progresses from so I have France down as value, but 108 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 2: I know they've not been great. I've been watching the games. 109 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 2: I understand that with concerns around France's performances up until 110 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 2: this point and a nod towards their ability to shut 111 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: out teams in terms of clear goal scoring opportunities and 112 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 2: then not exactly firing at the other end, I actually 113 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 2: landed on a draw. I looked at the bet builders 114 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 2: the same game parlay France will draw a double chance 115 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 2: and under two point five goals. 116 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 4: That evens. 117 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 2: I like that, but I wanted a bigger price because 118 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 2: I can also see Spain potentially nicking it in a 119 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 2: low scoring win. So at bigger price you can get 120 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 2: draw and under two point five goals. At three point 121 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: I realized, I'm using decimals, but that draw and under 122 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 2: two point five goals is at plus two two five, 123 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: and that is where I ended up, and that is 124 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 2: what I'll be taking in this first semi final. 125 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, used decimals. It's good to know for our American listeners. 126 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: What does mean. I actually kind of like Spain here 127 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: because I think that in Yeah, if this match stays 128 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: on a path of the path that France wants it 129 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: to go down. It's a coin flip, right, Like it's 130 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: a zero zero or one to one drab game where 131 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: it comes down to extra time or penalties or just 132 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: someone getting lucky or maybe a referee decision all that. 133 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: But if it goes down the path that Spain wants it, 134 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: it gets a little more chaotic. And I would trust 135 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: this Spanish side, even if they aren't as experienced as 136 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: all these you know, really well drilled the Shomps players 137 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: for Labelo, Like, I trust Spain if this thing goes 138 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: off kilt there a bit. So I'm gonna bet Spain here, 139 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: I think the inside ninety two because I that bet 140 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: would correlate to them winning inside ninety I just don't 141 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: see how it would benefit them, you know, getting into 142 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: extra time against the French side that's just so composed 143 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: and knows exactly how to get through these nervy moments. 144 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: So if you think about them past that this this 145 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: match can walk down. I think that if you think 146 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: it's going to go the way that France wants it, 147 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: it turns it into a coin flip. And if you 148 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: think it goes away for Spain wants it, you'd give 149 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: them a pretty significant edge. If there are more chances 150 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: at both sides, that's easier said than done against this 151 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: French side, which you know, we have this argument all 152 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: the time, you know, on this podcast about if there 153 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: is any you know what, what what would you rather say? 154 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: I love these nil nils and these boring matches. They 155 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: crack me up. I think it's it is what it's 156 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: all about like these these tournaments, is they spit out 157 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: these games that are just so terrible. Because if you 158 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: just said, you know that if you change the teams 159 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: from Portugal France to Stoke City versus you know whoever, Wolverhampton, 160 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: nobody would be watching that match, but the entire world 161 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: got to suffer through it. And it's that's beautiful stuff 162 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: to me. BJ So, I like Spain here. I think 163 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: this one gets maybe a little kookier than what we've 164 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: seen with with these French matches so far. 165 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna have to disagree with Michael. I'm with 166 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 3: Sam on this. I like I like France. I think 167 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 3: that it's kind of crazy that they are an underdog 168 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 3: here to Spain because the two suspensions that Spain has 169 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 3: and quite frankly, we have really seen a match at 170 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 3: this tournament where France can play in their best possible state. 171 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 3: And what I mean by that is is France is 172 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 3: so good at just sitting deep and then just killing 173 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 3: you in transition. But pretty much every team in this 174 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 3: tournament outside of maybe Portugal has essentially and even Portugal 175 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 3: for that matter, didn't really commit too many guys forward. 176 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: Is they've basically handled the ball to France and said, hey, 177 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 3: you guys, try to break us down, because we know 178 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: if you get in transition, you're gonna kill us, and 179 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 3: we're gonna do everything possible to make sure that that 180 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 3: doesn't happen. And and bape doesn't hurt us. With France or 181 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 3: excuse me, with Spain, the way that they play and 182 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 3: the way that their most successful playing is by obviously 183 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 3: controlling possession, by also committing a lot of guys for 184 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 3: an attack. You know, they typically build out in a two, three, five, 185 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 3: and they push those three up pretty pretty far, and 186 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 3: they leave those two guys on an island and they'll 187 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 3: just you know, they accept that they might get beaten transition. 188 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 3: So if Spain has two options here, if they can 189 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 3: either play the way they normally do, which is push 190 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,839 Speaker 3: all those guys forward, and also counterpress and try to 191 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 3: win the ball off of France, or they can dial 192 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 3: it back a little bit, they can play a little 193 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 3: bit more passively, and they can play a little bit 194 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 3: more like what we saw after they went ahead against Germany, 195 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: because it was not good defensively from Spain, and you 196 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 3: see that Spain. Yes, they're really good at controlling possession, 197 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 3: but they're a terrible box defending team. They have no 198 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 3: elite guys in there to block shots win aerial duels, 199 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 3: especially against a team like France. So against Germany, France 200 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 3: allowed forty five penalty box touches and two point one 201 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 3: expected goals, and nine crosses were completed in their penalty. 202 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 3: For those out there, two to three crosses completed in 203 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,439 Speaker 3: the penalty is like a good day for most offenses. 204 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: Nine is absurd. So I think Spain is kind of 205 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: stuck in between two different things. I don't think there's 206 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 3: been a team in this tournament that has really punished 207 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 3: them in transition, and I know there's all this made 208 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 3: up about Spain hasn't scored a goal from open play 209 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 3: because they've had a couple owned goals, but they've obviously underperformed. 210 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 3: We've been through that before. But also their defense has 211 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 3: been the best defense in this tournament. Now that England 212 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 3: has let up a couple goals through their five matches, 213 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 3: they've allowed three point seven non penalty expected goals and 214 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: even though they haven't scored a goal from open play, 215 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 3: nobody's scored a goal against them from open play, so 216 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 3: it's kind of pick your poison type of thing. I 217 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 3: do tend to lean more with Sam that this match 218 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 3: does become more nil NILI or maybe one to one. 219 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 3: But even if we're just going on pure underlying numbers, 220 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 3: since September of twenty twenty one, France has a plus 221 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 3: one point three to four expected goal differential per ninety 222 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 3: Spain is at plus one point two four, and I 223 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 3: think it's a fair statement to say that France is 224 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 3: a more talented team than Spain overall collectionally as the squad, 225 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 3: So I like France to advance. You can find a 226 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: plus one ten out there and I and honestly, I 227 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 3: would bet France at plus two seventy five to win 228 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 3: the Euros because I do believe they're going to be 229 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 3: favored over both England or Netherlands whoever gets to the finals. 230 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 3: So France to qualify plus one ten and then also 231 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 3: them to win the Euros at plus two seventy five for. 232 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: Me onto Wednesday, where Sam's England takes on the Netherlands 233 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: and once again to contrasting kind of styles. The way 234 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: these two teams started the tournament was kind of similar, 235 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: but Netherlands has sort of grown into it, albeit against 236 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: Romania and Turkey. So but then again, you know, England's 237 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 1: played Slovenia and espursis gonna be Slovakia and Switzerland in 238 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: their knockout games. But you'd expect this to be a 239 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,439 Speaker 1: matchup like a styles make fights where people would want 240 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:36,719 Speaker 1: would think the Netherlands want to go. They want to 241 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: put the ball on the carpet and knock it around, 242 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: play with a little bit more oomph and press more energy, 243 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: make it forntic, whereas England will want to play, you know, 244 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: as they've been doing this entire tournament, and just kill 245 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: the game as soon as the game starts and get 246 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: it to the deep end of the pool. Nonetheless, England 247 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 1: is a favorite here to advance roughly the same odds 248 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: like very similar odds in both matches on the three 249 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: way line. England's plus one fifty five the Netherlands plus 250 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: two twenty the draw is sitting at a pretty short 251 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: price of plus twenty seven and to qualify England's minus 252 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: one thirty eight, Netherlands a underdog at plus one ten. 253 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if the pressure is still 254 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: on England anymore. Sam, Actually, like, I feel like the 255 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 1: pressure was kind of lifted with that win. We were 256 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 1: talking about how there's you can almost see it when 257 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: they're playing, like you can see the weight of England 258 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: on their shoulders with the way they play too. Maybe 259 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: it's just the style they play makes it look that way. 260 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: I don't know. But then there's all this talk afterwards. 261 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: Everything gets a bruder filmed with England. It's one of 262 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 1: the craziest media markets in all sports. I'm watching I'm reading, 263 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: for some reason a rabbit hole of their new social 264 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: psychology to taking penalties, where each penalty taker also has 265 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: a buddy that walks that particular kicker to the spot. 266 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: And I'm losing my mind a bit here. But that 267 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: is what England is all about with these teams, Like 268 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 1: every moment of every game gets so blown up. But 269 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: I do think that getting to the semi finals, like 270 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: that kind of stuff goes away like it's it's you 271 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: made it to the semi finals. This is a an 272 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: achievement rather than a disappointment. No matter how you got here, 273 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: you got to a semi final. I feel like we're 274 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: going to see them. I'm going to sound crazy for 275 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: saying it, but I feel like it's going to be 276 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: a more loose, reflowing dare I say, you know nineteen 277 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: seventies Netherlands kind of England performance here where the ball's 278 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: gonna be pinged around a bit that makes me go 279 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: to the over. I think plus one sixty on over 280 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: two and a half. With the attacking talent I'm on 281 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: display here and I'm crazy right like this this game 282 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: is just gonna be nil nil. 283 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, you've You've really buttered me up there, Michael, but 284 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 2: I've kind of off to disagree with you. 285 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 4: I think we're again. 286 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 2: I think we're probably gonna get something similar to the 287 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: quarterfinal against Switzerland. Let me quickly read out some numbers. 288 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 2: I want you to tell me where they're from. Zero 289 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 2: point four seven, one point one five, zero point eight, 290 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 2: zero point eight seven and zero point five to two 291 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 2: any takers, I guess. 292 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: That's England's expected goes for from nine penalty in each 293 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: successive match. 294 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 4: Expect it goes spot on. 295 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: So the underlying data and what I'm seeing with these 296 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 2: eyes is telling me that England will not be a 297 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: bigger nation or they will really struggle to which the 298 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 2: Netherlands fits into. Unless it's a one, they'll win and 299 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 2: we hang on for dear life. Failing that, our other 300 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: legitimate route to progress in is via a penalty shootout. 301 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 2: And listen as if we win Euro twenty twenty four 302 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 2: after winning three penalty shotouts on the bounds, that's fine. 303 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 2: I'll still be on some kind of bender next Tuesday, 304 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: and I won't be bothered in the slightest. But it's 305 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 2: not sustainable. That's not how you usually win a major tournament. 306 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: And I know there are exceptions Portugal in twenty sixteen, 307 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: but it is an underwhelmingly dangerous game to England still 308 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 2: haven't shown enough quality for me in their five fixtures 309 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: to this point to suggest that they'll overcome a Spain 310 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: or a France. They might have the beating of the Netherlands, 311 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 2: but I think it's going to be really tight. They're 312 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: lucky to be in the Semis and the draw has 313 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 2: been coming to us again, but they're there, so that 314 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 2: is something to be positive with. And I'll tell you 315 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 2: one thing, and I meant I just mentioned it on 316 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: the Better Expert podcast, so there's a danger of me 317 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: repeating myself here. But the key to England's chances of winning, 318 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 2: I think is Luke Shaw's fitness at left back. We've 319 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 2: missed him so much. There is no hesitation whatsoever for 320 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 2: him to get up and get round the full back 321 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 2: to overlap the left winger and it makes just such 322 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 2: a huge difference. You can see it visually. It's clear 323 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 2: like in terms of balance to this side and forward areas. 324 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 2: If he can start the semi final, then we can 325 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 2: cause Neverlands some real problems on that side. Once he 326 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 2: gets up the pitch automatically, it brings up three four 327 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 2: five bodies to the box and we can get our 328 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 2: midfielders closer to Kane who is really struggling up there 329 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,199 Speaker 2: on his own, whilst Bekylesaka can continue to do what 330 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 2: he's doing over on the right wing. So Luke, sure, 331 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 2: it's just key for me, but he's not one hundred percent, 332 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: so I don't know if he can start. If he's 333 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: lining up at left back on Wednesday Wednesday, Yeah, Wednesday evening, 334 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: Wednesday evening UK time. I think we might win the game. 335 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 2: We might win it in ninety minutes, but we need 336 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 2: him to start. And I also thought I need to 337 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 2: give Cole Palmer a shout out. I thought he was excellent. 338 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 2: His skill set of getting on the ball in whatever 339 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 2: area of the pitch and successfully carrying the ball upfield 340 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 2: gives this team such a lift on the pitch. You 341 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 2: can see it like it's visible. It's infectious. As a fan, 342 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 2: I want everything to run through him when he's on 343 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,880 Speaker 2: the pitch, and the players will be thinking exactly the same. 344 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,199 Speaker 2: Give the ball to Cope Palmer. We can get up 345 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: the pitch as a unit and relieve pressure. So I 346 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 2: want him starting. I think Phil Folden then therefore would 347 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 2: have to be benched. If you're going to start fielding Gareth, 348 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 2: then Cole Palmer has to get on the pitch earlier. 349 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: We need that on the pitch when we're under the cosh. 350 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 2: And we also need him on the pitch to create 351 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 2: opportunities at the right end. And if it's not Cole Palmer, 352 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,679 Speaker 2: it has to be someone else. We are missing that 353 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 2: and we need that main positive from the quarterfinals. It 354 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 2: has to be the penalties. As an Englishman, we're not 355 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 2: used to this kind of efficiency from the penalty spar 356 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 2: I can assure you that Pickford in there obviously has 357 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 2: it Everton found Michael, you'll know really safe power of hands. 358 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 2: I don't want to jinx anything, but England I think 359 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 2: are quite good at penalties now, which yeah, which I 360 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 2: didn't think i'd be saying in my lifetime. I could 361 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 2: go on all day anyway, but I'll bring it back 362 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: to today's bet for the semi final. I've landed on 363 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 2: exactly the same selection that I put forward in the 364 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 2: previous game draw and under two point five goals in 365 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 2: a bet builder that's also plus two to five, meaning 366 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 2: that I'll just need one of these bets to land 367 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 2: for profit in the semis, which I think might be 368 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 2: a good way to approach the final four. If you 369 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 2: think they'll naturally be tight in CAG I wouldn't be 370 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 2: surprised if we only see one or two more goals 371 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 2: in this competition. I can't see a game spiraling into 372 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 2: a two to two or a three two in the 373 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 2: final three games. I could be wrong, but I'm happy 374 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 2: to bet on a low score and draw or win here. 375 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 2: Historically that is how these semi finals go. And lastly, 376 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 2: for me, it's hard to envisage a game going any 377 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 2: other way with this version of the England national side involved. 378 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 2: Southgate's men create low margin fixtures with little to shout 379 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 2: about a neither box. 380 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 4: We shouldn't see three or more goes in this game. 381 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 2: The go line is set at over another two point zero, 382 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 2: so here's hoping for either a no no or a 383 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 2: one one. 384 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I said, I think I was. I like 385 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: the over here bit. I think that we see it 386 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: just even if it's the changes you mentioned right Luke 387 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: Sha and Cole Palmer's starting that that helps my bed. 388 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 1: I think the other bed, I'm a couple other bets 389 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 1: I want to just just throw out there that I'm considering, 390 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: and I think I'm gonna play. Is I like Virgil 391 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: van Dyke as at any time goalscorer at fourteen to one. 392 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: I think that these are the kind of matches where 393 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: he gets up and obviously he's gonna be very dangerous 394 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 1: in the box. And I like the deliveries from set 395 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: pieces from the Netherlands have just been really really dangerous. 396 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 1: So I like Van Dyke at fourteen to one. I 397 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: think he can cause some problems in the mixer, as 398 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: they say. And also a goal in the first ten 399 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 1: minutes of an England match, how about that? Plus four 400 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: fifty I think is also where it's a little bit 401 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: of a sprinkle as well, because I do think that there. 402 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe it's a hunch BJ, but I 403 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: feel like this is the time where England actually puts 404 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: the ball on the floor and maybe plays a little bit, 405 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 1: and it's not just passing Trippier to Stones to gay 406 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: He or concert whoever's in. But I've been wrong plenty 407 00:20:58,080 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: of times. 408 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 3: I think it just depends on how one sets up 409 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 3: right like it, you know, I think teams have shown 410 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 3: throughout this tournament that if you just sit off England 411 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 3: and you deny space through the middle, you can be 412 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 3: pretty successful. So I wouldn't see why Netherlands wouldn't do 413 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 3: the same, although you know, Coleman has surprised me a 414 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 3: few times before. But uh, I generally think that this 415 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 3: Netherlands team is set up so horribly tactically, but they 416 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 3: have a lot of individual quality that makes up for 417 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 3: a lot of it. And uh, how I kind of describe, 418 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 3: you know, Netherlands and how they play is Coman will 419 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 3: have them set up so bad for like the first 420 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 3: thirty five maybe forty five minutes, and then you'll just 421 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,959 Speaker 3: see him make like the weirdest sub ever and you're like, wow, 422 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 3: why did he just take Veermann off and bring on Simons? 423 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 3: And then of course at halftime against Turkey it was 424 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 3: just all right, nothing's working, Let's bring wegghorse on and 425 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 3: hoofballs up to him and let's just hope for the best. 426 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 1: And guess what it works. 427 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 3: So I mean, you can't really fault the guy, right, 428 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 3: But in the end, I mean Netherlands created point seven 429 00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 3: expected goals. The two goals they scored one obviously off 430 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 3: set piece and the other one I mean against England 431 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 3: that ball will never ever get to the back post 432 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 3: because England's gonna be playing a very low line. So 433 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I don't have any value from a 434 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 3: projection standpoint. I have England at plus one fifty three, 435 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 3: Netherlands at plus two thirty three, the draw plus two 436 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 3: twenty nine and the total of two point zero three. 437 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: So and also England to advance at minus one twenty one. 438 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 3: So there's just really no value for me on here. 439 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 3: And I think it really comes down to the Netherlands 440 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 3: because again, individual quality has shined out. They've had a 441 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 3: couple of transition They've basically used their transition moments with 442 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 3: the quality they have to create a lot of these chances. 443 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 3: But you know, this is now gonna be a very 444 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 3: different type of test. And if you look on like 445 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 3: a similar type of match, they played France in the 446 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 3: group stage and they did virtually nothing for the entire match, 447 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 3: and France really should have scored like two or three 448 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 3: times and that was France thout in Bape. In that match, 449 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 3: Netherlands just created point six expecting goals. I was potentially 450 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 3: looking at a first half nil nil here, but that's 451 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 3: like plus one twenty right now, which is really really 452 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 3: low price to pay. I don't really want to pay that. 453 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 3: Although England matches this tournament have featured in the first 454 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 3: half zero point six seven expectacles per forty five minutes, 455 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 3: you know, so it's just been completely dead games all 456 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,439 Speaker 3: tournament long. So instead I'm gonna go to the props 457 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 3: market because we can't have I can't just sit out 458 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 3: a semifinal, right, I got to have something on this, 459 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 3: So two props. I came up with Declan Rice over 460 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 3: two and a half tackles at plus one twenty five. 461 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 3: If the Netherlands is going to be successful, it's mainly 462 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 3: going to be cut be because of transition attacks. And 463 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 3: who is the guy that's stopping most of those for England. 464 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 3: It's Deckland Rice right now, he's gone over two and 465 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 3: a half tackles in all but one of his matches. 466 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 3: The one he had two tackles against Serbia, where was 467 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 3: the ball going for Serbia? It was just going out 468 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 3: wide away from where he was and they were just 469 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 3: sending in crosses. So if you've seen throughout the tournament 470 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 3: as well, the Netherlands is a team that wants to 471 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 3: attack the medal with the Pai Simons. 472 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: That is where a lot of their attacks go. 473 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,199 Speaker 3: And so Rice has been the one that's been mopping 474 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 3: up a lot of those fifteen tackles in five matches 475 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 3: so far this tournament. So I like that price a 476 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 3: plus one twenty five and Rinders midfielder for Netherlands to 477 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 3: have a shot in this match at minus pun seventy five. 478 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 3: I know it's a little bit juicy, but if England's 479 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,719 Speaker 3: to go ahead, or even if England what the typically 480 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 3: how they play out of possession, as we've seen throughout 481 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 3: this tournament is that they will just sit in a 482 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 3: defensive block and they won't really oppress you with too 483 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 3: much onus unless it's you know, in your own final third. Well, 484 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 3: Rinders has been the guy. Now that Shouton is playing 485 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 3: the more defensive holding midfielder type role, Rinders has been 486 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 3: given more freedom to go forward and he's the one 487 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 3: that's taking a lot of those shots kind of from 488 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 3: outside the box there. So if England's gonna play a 489 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 3: low line and they're gonna play very pass very passive defensively, 490 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 3: those shots in and around the box when Netherlands does 491 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 3: get it inside England's final third are going to be 492 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 3: there and Rinders is going to be the one that's 493 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 3: coming out to get a out of those shots. Forty 494 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 3: four percent of the shots that England has conceded so 495 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 3: far this tournament have came from outside the box. They've 496 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,639 Speaker 3: only allowed i think one shot inside the six yard box. 497 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 3: So and England's average shot distance allowed is nineteen point 498 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 3: seven yards. So generally if the shots are going to 499 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 3: be coming from outside the box, the type of area, 500 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 3: I like a box crashing advancing number eight to get 501 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 3: that shot. Rinders has ten shots so far for Netherlands' tournament. 502 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 3: That's third most on the team, and out of the 503 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,640 Speaker 3: eleven matches that he's played throughout Euroqualifiers and in the Euros, 504 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 3: he's gotten a shot in eight of those eleven matches 505 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 3: and the three ones he didn't get a shot against 506 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 3: Turkey he came off after sixty minutes. He didn't get 507 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 3: a shot against their second meeting against France, and then 508 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 3: another one. I can't think it was against Greece or Ireland, 509 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 3: you know, excuse me Ireland. He only played for forty 510 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 3: five minutes. So I generally think the way that this 511 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 3: match sets up and where Netherlands is going to get 512 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 3: most of their chances, Honestly, they're not going to be 513 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,479 Speaker 3: inside the box. It's going to be in and around it. 514 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 3: I like Rinders a minus one seventy five to just 515 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 3: get one shot in this match. 516 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,959 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, as you were going through that, the one 517 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: thing that kind of occurred to me is I feel 518 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: like the Netherlands have played almost every kind of opponent 519 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 1: you can play it at international tournament at this point, 520 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: whereas England's played just like a growing a better version 521 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 1: of the same opponent over and over and over again. 522 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, it's been very strange, but hey, they're here, 523 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: They're in the semi final. Football is too match. 524 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 3: By the way, to France and England in the final. 525 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,160 Speaker 1: Mind, God, that match so bad? 526 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 4: Best final ever? 527 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 1: It will be this Trafalgar part two. All right, let's 528 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: get to best bets before we get into before I 529 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: take this thing truly off the rails into Horatio Nelson stuff. 530 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: Let's we'll start with you BJ. 531 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 3: France to advance at plus one ten against Spain. I 532 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 3: really don't think France should be an underdog in this match. 533 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 3: You know, the way this match sets up for Spain 534 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 3: where they play at their best is pushing a lot 535 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 3: of guys inside the final third and counterpressing when they 536 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 3: lose the ball. While pushing a lot of guys inside 537 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 3: the final third and counter pressing gets a team like France, 538 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 3: who's the best transition team in the world, is a 539 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 3: very very dangerous game to play. So that means the 540 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 3: Spain is probably going to have to play a different 541 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 3: style one you saw against Germany where they're playing more 542 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 3: passively and giving the ball to France and allowing them 543 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 3: to try and break them down. But Spain playing very 544 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 3: defensive is not a good thing. Once they went ahead 545 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,879 Speaker 3: against Germany, he conceded forty five penalty box and touches 546 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,199 Speaker 3: in total for the match. Nine frosses were completed in 547 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 3: their penalty era and then Germany ended up creating over 548 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 3: two expected goals. So even though France hasn't been very 549 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 3: good offensively during this tournament, they still have created over 550 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 3: eight non penalty expected goals. And France is also the 551 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 3: best defensive team left in this tournament, only allowed three 552 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 3: point seven non penalty expected goals in their five matches. 553 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 3: They're incredibly talented and good solid defensive side that's going 554 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 3: to make it very difficult for Spain to score on them. 555 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 3: So I think France should be a favorite here to 556 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 3: get to the finals. So I like them to advance 557 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 3: at plus one ten oa yea, and. 558 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 1: We're going to go over two and a half goals 559 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: in the Netherlands and England. We just haven't seen England 560 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 1: play a team like this yet, a team that has 561 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 1: both individual quality and some kind of tactical new know 562 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 1: how and bravery to put the ball down and try 563 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 1: to engage England. Most teams have sat back and been 564 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,479 Speaker 1: kind of willing combatants and playing these nil nails won 565 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: ones against England. I have a feeling that the Netherlands 566 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: won't do that. I do think we're going to see 567 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 1: a little bit of let your hair down moment from 568 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 1: England here. They reached the semi finals. Had they lost 569 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: to in the quarterfinals of Switzerland, this tournament would have 570 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: been an unmitigated disaster. It's now a success. They make 571 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: it to another major international semi final under Garris Southgates, 572 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: so no matter how they got here, they got here. 573 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to breathe easier. I think 574 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: we've seen some signs from this team with a few 575 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 1: tactical changes, a few personnel changes, that could lead to 576 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: some more gumption going forward. I think this thing is 577 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 1: a little more back and forth than the odds suggests, 578 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: which suggests they suggest it's not going to be back 579 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: and forth at all. So I liked over two and 580 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: a half three goals at plus one sixty two in 581 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: this one. 582 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 4: Sam. 583 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: I know you're going to disagree with me, though, yep. 584 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 2: Standing the same game, I'm going for draw and under 585 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 2: two point five goes up plus to twenty five. Since 586 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety eight, in both the World Cup on the Euros, 587 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 2: ten out of twenty six semifinal matches have been drawn. 588 00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: Applying to one unit state to each of those games 589 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 2: would have seen a twenty five point three percent ROI, 590 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 2: so backing draws in semi finals might be the way 591 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 2: to go. It's another game I think will be really tight. 592 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 2: We went through England's expected goes this tournament, not good. 593 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 2: Four or five matches have fallen below that one point 594 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 2: zero XG line. I expect more of the same. The 595 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 2: Netherlands look decent going forward. I agree with Michael, but 596 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: I'm confident England's backline will rebuff the majority of their advances. 597 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 2: In the end, I'm expecting a low margin game, most 598 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 2: likely nil nil or one one and at plus two 599 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: twenty five it's not too bad. 600 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: Great, So that'll do it for the semi finals. We'll 601 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 1: be back after these two matches to preview the final 602 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 1: and then take a break and get ready for the 603 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: Premier League. But thank you for listening. Thank you to 604 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: our sponsors BET three six y five and a producer 605 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: Noah for bj and Sam and Michael. 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