Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.
Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever
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Speaker 1: This has been a week with so much going on
Speaker 1: again with the central bankers, but better to bring in
Speaker 1: I know exactly in the last couple of weeks has
Speaker 1: really been a lot of economic data as well here
Speaker 1: which has been very influential for the Fed. We want
Speaker 1: to bring on our next guest, Claudia Sam, founder and
Speaker 1: independent economist at Some Consulting. Claudia, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us here again, a lot of economic data for
Speaker 1: this market to digest. What for you are you focusing
Speaker 1: on right now?
Speaker 3: Well, obviously the game in town is inflation, the consumer inflation,
Speaker 3: and we really got by getting the consumer inflation and
Speaker 3: the next day the producer inflation.
Speaker 4: You had kind of a signal between the two.
Speaker 3: But we still see a lot of disinflation in the pipeline.
Speaker 4: It's just it's not there yet so.
Speaker 3: And like you said, there was a whole wealth of
Speaker 3: data that came in the last two weeks, and it's
Speaker 3: I think it's caused the FEDS and problems that we've
Speaker 3: seen multiple times, a lot of data come in during
Speaker 3: their blackout period, so you don't have reserve bank presence,
Speaker 3: you don't have chair Powel out there interpreting the data,
Speaker 3: and I think they get a little stuck with where
Speaker 3: the consensus and markets was before they had to go
Speaker 3: dark for a while.
Speaker 5: And I have to point out how Claudia is the
Speaker 5: creator of the Psalm rule, which is that recession indicator
Speaker 5: that is used by the FED. What do you think
Speaker 5: that is telling us at this point amidst all of
Speaker 5: this debate about where the economy is headed right now.
Speaker 3: So we're not in a recession right now. I mean,
Speaker 3: the Sam rule is a recession indicator, it doesn't forecast
Speaker 3: a recession, and I think it's just a way to summarize.
Speaker 4: When you look at all of the labor market data,
Speaker 4: it's really good.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you told us a year ago the
Speaker 3: Fed's going to raise five percentage points and the labor
Speaker 3: market is going to be well below four in unemployment.
Speaker 3: I mean, it just it almost doesn't make sense except
Speaker 3: the labor market is strong, it is able to buffer
Speaker 3: what the Fed is doing to a large extent.
Speaker 1: So cloudy. I mean, A big part of the pushback
Speaker 1: on a recession call, or certainly one that would call
Speaker 1: for a longer, deeper recession call, is that the consumer's
Speaker 1: in pretty good shape. As you mentioned, you know, most
Speaker 1: folks want a job, have a job. Retail sales still
Speaker 1: remain pretty strong. How do you kind of put all
Speaker 1: that together?
Speaker 3: What we knew coming into this this year, late last year,
Speaker 3: the consumer up and down the income distribution, had a
Speaker 3: lot of money on the side, a lot to buffer. Now,
Speaker 3: this money will run out. It's not like it's forever,
Speaker 3: but that's something that US consumers, a big group of families,
Speaker 3: have never gone into a recession with this kind of
Speaker 3: a buffer. So you really watching physical policy versus monetary
Speaker 3: policy play out. And I do think at some point
Speaker 3: the Fed's going to get the upper hand. It's a
Speaker 3: big question if they've done too much. But as of
Speaker 3: right now, things are good, especially for consumers, which are
Speaker 3: seventy percent of the economy.
Speaker 5: Have we gotten to a point where the FED has
Speaker 5: been too aggressive to try to lower inflation, or do
Speaker 5: you think where they are pausing or potential skip the
Speaker 5: debate here, this is the proper point to do it.
Speaker 3: So I think a pause at this point was appropriate.
Speaker 4: Just they've gone really fast and really hard.
Speaker 3: It's an opportunity for the rest of the economy to
Speaker 3: catch up and then assess. What I found very puzzling
Speaker 3: in the statement this last meeting and share pilot the
Speaker 3: press conference is they're like, we're going to pause here,
Speaker 3: but almost all the participants think we're going to have
Speaker 3: to raise later.
Speaker 4: And it's like, if you really.
Speaker 3: Think that, why are you pausing right now?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 4: It didn't quite hang together.
Speaker 3: That was a hawkish pause, but I think they kind
Speaker 3: of pushed it past what was It was kind of
Speaker 3: a confusing hawkish pause.
Speaker 5: When you looked at the dots, dots go also in
Speaker 5: the terminal and to see the wide divergence there between members.
Speaker 5: Was that surprising to you or is that something that
Speaker 5: you typically would see in the midst of when you
Speaker 5: are getting to a point toward rate hiking cycles ending.
Speaker 3: Or it is heartening to see that the FMC participants
Speaker 3: are having a robust debate both externally and particularly internally,
Speaker 3: and these dots, particularly you go out in the out years.
Speaker 4: I mean, if we.
Speaker 3: Didn't see some dispersion, it would be a problem.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 3: They are being very clear that maybe they've done enough,
Speaker 3: maybe they've done too much, maybe they haven't done enough.
Speaker 3: So I the dispersion in the dots, I think, especially
Speaker 3: as you go out over the forecast, makes a lot
Speaker 3: of sense to me. We are going to end up
Speaker 3: higher than five percent this year. Like I said, I
Speaker 3: find that a little bit harder to get how the
Speaker 3: decision and the messaging hang together.
Speaker 1: Hey, Claudia, just for me, I feel like one of
Speaker 1: the limits to my analysis of kind of economic conditions
Speaker 1: is I just spend way too much time in the
Speaker 1: greater New York area. I don't get out much, and
Speaker 1: when I do, I tendify myself on the West Coast.
Speaker 1: So am I really out there seeing what's going on?
Speaker 1: Do you get it? Are you ever concerned that the
Speaker 1: macroeconomic data we get from the government isn't really representing
Speaker 1: kind of what it's like out there day to day
Speaker 1: for the average American?
Speaker 3: Well, in fact, we do have official data that looks
Speaker 3: at states, even looks at counties, through the labor market
Speaker 3: area unemployment statistics. Now, the problem is these come out
Speaker 3: a couple weeks after Jobs Day, you know, and we've
Speaker 3: all moved on and at CPI and for some reason
Speaker 3: analysis from one of my Bloomberg opinion columns, I looked
Speaker 3: at these differences and it was actually inspired by talking
Speaker 3: to a journalist who covers New York and was like,
Speaker 3: the dispairit. He's pretty the right. Racial disparities haven't closed
Speaker 3: in that way in New York.
Speaker 4: As they have in the country.
Speaker 3: And looking at you know, the places you go to visit,
Speaker 3: I mean, California is another one that actually has seen
Speaker 3: their unemployment rate creep up in a way that you know,
Speaker 3: if they were getting the some rule, you know, as
Speaker 3: they were the whole country, really they would be in
Speaker 3: a recession.
Speaker 4: Not to say they are.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of things happening regionally.
Speaker 4: We have to be very careful.
Speaker 3: Often the problems in a regional economy don't spread to
Speaker 3: the rest, but sometimes they do. So it's important, I think,
Speaker 3: to look at those And frankly, it's just because the
Speaker 3: data comes out a little later that I think it
Speaker 3: doesn't get it's due attention.
Speaker 5: We did hear from FED Governor Christopher Waller earlier this morning.
Speaker 5: He's a voting member, as you know, and talking about
Speaker 5: how fears over a few banks shouldn't alter their policy.
Speaker 5: Was bet your Jerome pal forced to have to have
Speaker 5: that hawkish rhetoric after the decision on Wednesday in order
Speaker 5: to keep the FEDS options more flexible in case there
Speaker 5: is so unforeseen issue when it comes to the economy,
Speaker 5: or when it comes to some of these bank stresses
Speaker 5: that we saw earlier this year with the regionals.
Speaker 3: So they hiked twice right after bank failures, and so
Speaker 3: I don't feel like that was playing a big role
Speaker 3: in the pause. They've only got a month between now
Speaker 3: in July in terms of data, so I don't know
Speaker 3: exactly how they think what was appropriate this this month,
Speaker 3: you know, won't be appropriate next month. But we'll see
Speaker 3: when they do those those extra hikes. Yeah, so I
Speaker 3: think that's I guess that's the thing that I would emphasize.
Speaker 1: So, Claudia, as fast forward as a little bit to
Speaker 1: the July meeting, what do you think the FED does here?
Speaker 3: I think it'll lean heavily on what happens in the
Speaker 3: consumer prices. They did in this last data release, they
Speaker 3: got some relief on this super core their you know,
Speaker 3: core services without housing.
Speaker 4: They need to see it.
Speaker 3: Overall in core core has been very sticky.
Speaker 4: It's been very, very.
Speaker 3: Painful to watch it just move along.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 3: They're not going to take one month of good data
Speaker 3: and hang their hat on it. So I think they
Speaker 3: are looking in the banking sector.
Speaker 4: They're looking not.
Speaker 3: To look for another failure, but to look for the
Speaker 3: credit tightening.
Speaker 1: Enough, so all right, Claudia, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Claudi Sam, She's founder and independent economists with some consulting.
Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's live program Bloomberg Markets
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Speaker 5: Paul, I feel like, because we are we had the
Speaker 5: FED meeting earlier this week, we had retail sales yesterday
Speaker 5: coming in stronger than what people were expecting. I feel
Speaker 5: like we have to unpack that with our next guest,
Speaker 5: and who better to do it with than Mari Shore,
Speaker 5: senior equity analyst at Columbia thread Needle Investments, who's going
Speaker 5: to talk to us about that retail sales report. Obviously
Speaker 5: the consumer strength and inflation. Mari, break it down for us.
Speaker 5: What is your take on the latest round of data
Speaker 5: when it's related to the consumer.
Speaker 9: Yes, thanks again for having me.
Speaker 10: The May data was definitely encouraging given the tougher compare,
Speaker 10: and it does reflect the underlying resiliency of the consumer.
Speaker 10: But I also think we did see the benefit from
Speaker 10: warmer weather following a cooler April, and also additional holidays,
Speaker 10: and we know that the consumer is showing up around
Speaker 10: holidays and key events. But as we do look forward,
Speaker 10: I would say the outlook is still more cautious, as
Speaker 10: temperatures are expected to be cooler in the early summer,
Speaker 10: and we continue to see the consumer shifts spending towards
Speaker 10: needs from wants and towards services away from goods.
Speaker 1: So we talk about temperature is supposed to be cooler
Speaker 1: in June and July. Wait a minute, that's not good.
Speaker 1: I'm a beach person. I need to get the side compound. Yeah, exactly, So,
Speaker 1: I mean, Mari, what it's interesting thing when you think
Speaker 1: about spending out there, is it across the board or
Speaker 1: are there pockets of depending upon income levels, stronger weaker
Speaker 1: than the others, or is there just do some of
Speaker 1: these macro trend levels Are they pretty representative across the board?
Speaker 10: Well, we are definitely seeing a broad divergence between categories.
Speaker 10: So I would say the weakest categories remain some of
Speaker 10: the big ticket categories that were strongest during the pandemic,
Speaker 10: like home related items consumer electronics, while the strongest categories
Speaker 10: remain health and wellness, e commerce which has recently picked
Speaker 10: up again, and also eating out, which really plays into
Speaker 10: the strength in experiences. When we think about different income demographics,
Speaker 10: I would say we've really seen a broad slowing across
Speaker 10: the spectrum. We know that the low income consumer is
Speaker 10: still under pressure from higher food inflation, but even at
Speaker 10: the higher income levels we have seen a slowdown, which
Speaker 10: is likely related to the market volatility.
Speaker 9: We've seen the weakness and the.
Speaker 10: Housing market, and also some questions as to the jobs outlook.
Speaker 5: So how does this alter your projections when it comes
Speaker 5: to earnings growth moving forward?
Speaker 9: It doesn't really.
Speaker 10: It really supports I think what I've been saying for
Speaker 10: some time, and that is that the consumer in aggregate
Speaker 10: still looks strong. But again, when you dig a little deeper.
Speaker 10: You continue to see that shift towards goods from service
Speaker 10: I'm sorry, towards services from goods and towards needs from wants,
Speaker 10: and so as we move through the year, especially with
Speaker 10: the rising risk of recession, as I know some of
Speaker 10: your prior guests have discussed, I think it really does
Speaker 10: place risk on the company's guidance for the year, which
Speaker 10: is very much back half weighted, And as we think
Speaker 10: about what the key driver of sales could be going forward,
Speaker 10: it is a little bit more difficult to identify.
Speaker 9: If you think about during the.
Speaker 10: Pandemic, most of the companies drove sales growth through pricing,
Speaker 10: and that is no longer a lever that the retailers
Speaker 10: can pull. And so now you really need to see
Speaker 10: unit demand accelerate to see stronger sales growth. And I
Speaker 10: think it is hard to identify a catalyst for that
Speaker 10: stronger unit demand into the back half the year given
Speaker 10: the macro pressures that we've discussed.
Speaker 5: And to your point, you were talking about those price
Speaker 5: hikes that have gone on for multiple quarters now maybe
Speaker 5: not being able to see that continue. Campbell, super instance,
Speaker 5: signaled that recently that consumers might be less willing to
Speaker 5: put a but those price increases. General Mills actually flagged
Speaker 5: that similarly in an investor day as well. When it
Speaker 5: comes to the margin pain that a lot of household
Speaker 5: products companies, packaged goods, beverage stocks have been under. Is
Speaker 5: most of that pain passed yet or is more to
Speaker 5: come on the margin front.
Speaker 10: It's a great question. There's lots of moving pieces on margin.
Speaker 10: I would say from a input cost standpoint, given the
Speaker 10: disinflation we've seen and a lot of the key commodities,
Speaker 10: they will see less pressure on the margin line from that. However,
Speaker 10: promotions are normalizing normalizing, which will be a headwind. And
Speaker 10: in addition, we've heard retailers talk about issues like shrink
Speaker 10: or theft, which is a huge headwind.
Speaker 9: For them this year.
Speaker 10: And also for retailers like Target and Walmart and the
Speaker 10: warehouse clubs, they are seeing unfavorable category mix.
Speaker 9: Pressure their margins.
Speaker 10: So this year was setting up to be a pretty
Speaker 10: easy year from a margin standpoint, just due to easy comparisons.
Speaker 9: But as it's played.
Speaker 10: Out, I think we've seen that the headwinds are now
Speaker 10: seemingly more than offsetting the tailwinds on the margin line.
Speaker 1: Mario, I know it's only June. But let's start thinking
Speaker 1: a little bit ahead here, first back to school and
Speaker 1: second holiday season. What are the retailers saying at this
Speaker 1: point as to expectations.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think for the retailers this year into holiday,
Speaker 10: given the macro headwinds and the demand normalization in some
Speaker 10: of these discretionary categories, their real focus is just on
Speaker 10: planning conservatively so that they are able to keep inventory
Speaker 10: as closely aligned with sales as possible so they do
Speaker 10: not face the kind of markdown risk that they saw
Speaker 10: last year and last holiday season.
Speaker 9: I think there's.
Speaker 10: Also maybe a couple select opportunities, like, for instance, with
Speaker 10: the bed bath and beyond bankruptcy, you've heard a couple
Speaker 10: retailers talking about going after the home category in a
Speaker 10: bigger way.
Speaker 9: To try to pick up some of that share.
Speaker 10: But I think in general, the retailers are very mindful
Speaker 10: of the more cautious macro backdrop, and they're really just
Speaker 10: trying to plan their business as conservatively as possible so
Speaker 10: that they can try to protect their margin rate even
Speaker 10: if sales come in a little bit slower.
Speaker 5: We only have about forty five seconds left. You mentioned
Speaker 5: theft picking up. Why is that.
Speaker 9: It's a great question.
Speaker 10: You know, some of the retail executives that we've spoken
Speaker 10: about have said that in their decades of experience, they
Speaker 10: have never seen such a broad based pickup in theft. Again,
Speaker 10: that's across the country, across store type, whether.
Speaker 9: It's rural versus urban. I think it.
Speaker 10: Really reflects the macro draft backdrop that we find ourselves
Speaker 10: in and maybe some of the legal changes in terms
Speaker 10: of what it takes to prosecute some of these fats
Speaker 10: as felonies versus maybe more minor charges.
Speaker 9: But you've really heard all.
Speaker 10: Of the retailers talk about it, whether it be a
Speaker 10: grocery store, a target, a home depot, an alta. And
Speaker 10: it's something that they're all really working hard on, but
Speaker 10: they are also trying to prevent theft, theft and not
Speaker 10: sacrifice sales.
Speaker 1: All right, Mari, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Always appreciate speaking with you, getting your perspective on the
Speaker 1: retail space. Maris Share, senior equity analysts at Columbia thread Needle.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the.
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Speaker 5: We're going to switch things up do more of a
Speaker 5: C suite conversation tool, and this is a really important conversation.
Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to our next guest, Daniella Gilboa, the
Speaker 5: co founder and CEO of AIVF, an AI healthcare company.
Speaker 5: She's joining us to discuss healthcare tech and IVF technology
Speaker 5: is an important conversation for many. Danielle, thank you so
Speaker 5: much for joining us. How are you?
Speaker 6: I'm great, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 5: Well, tell us about your company and what you do.
Speaker 6: Sorry I missed that for a second. Can you reput
Speaker 6: the question.
Speaker 5: Tell us about your company and your mission.
Speaker 6: Yeah. So we're here to democratize and optimized if the
Speaker 6: IVF journey and what we do is we developed an
Speaker 6: AI model that understands and analyze embryos better than any
Speaker 6: human being. And the million dollar question of which a
Speaker 6: will become a baby? We have an ancestors, so our
Speaker 6: models analyze the embryos and are able to detect and
Speaker 6: recognize different features, so with different outcomes, and so we
Speaker 6: are uh, this is the way of optimizing IVF.
Speaker 1: So, Gabrielle, I've have some experience with us, and I'm
Speaker 1: a big fan of IVF and thank you Medical College
Speaker 1: of Virginia MCV. How does your technology work? How does
Speaker 1: artificial intelligence which is the buzzword for every industry out there?
Speaker 1: Now I have another one to add to it, which
Speaker 1: is in vitrio fertilization. How does it work? How does
Speaker 1: it work.
Speaker 9: Well?
Speaker 6: Before any AI development? What we we do in IVF
Speaker 6: clinics is we would analyze embryos based on morphology or
Speaker 6: the way that the embryo looks or looks under the microscope.
Speaker 6: So this is very subjective human analysis. This is very guestimation.
Speaker 6: Like what we do with AI is that we train
Speaker 6: the model on huge amounts of data images of embryos
Speaker 6: and videos of embryos and patients backwards. And so the
Speaker 6: AI could again I said before, I detect different features
Speaker 6: that the human eye cannot see and come up with
Speaker 6: a score that's much more accurate than any embryologist or
Speaker 6: physician could realize. And this is really the way of
Speaker 6: democratizing our Yeah, what I mean is that the million
Speaker 6: dollar question of which embryo will become a baby and
Speaker 6: which embryo we select to transfort back to mummy's uterists.
Speaker 6: Instead of having it as a tilent error. Now you
Speaker 6: have an accurate way of doing it. And ai as
Speaker 6: ai sauld you know, because.
Speaker 1: So that Danielle has your tech, has your technology? Has
Speaker 1: your technology been deployed in the marketplace? And if so,
Speaker 1: kind of what's the efficacy here or the success right?
Speaker 9: H Yeah?
Speaker 6: So the technologies is deployed in across Europe and Southeast
Speaker 6: Asia and South America and the US very soon.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 6: And yes we have h and we have reports from
Speaker 6: you know, from clinics uh saying that they have in
Speaker 6: pressed success rates and they're actually changing their pricing model.
Speaker 6: Instead of pricing its pair treatment, they price it pair
Speaker 6: baby because they now have a system that they can
Speaker 6: trust and it's reliable and it's accurate, and it's just
Speaker 6: the impact is so amazing that you know, we're we're
Speaker 6: very honored to be doing it.
Speaker 5: How does the regulation work?
Speaker 6: It's uh, well, you know, ai as ai is something
Speaker 6: that regulatory organizations study. It's not yet uh confirmed, but
Speaker 6: but it's fully regulated. We have the ce Mark and
Speaker 6: the FDA very soon. So it needs to be regulated.
Speaker 6: You know, it's something that.
Speaker 5: We push when you say, you say how soon regulated
Speaker 5: when you say soon, how soon?
Speaker 6: As soon as in a few months, So.
Speaker 1: Talk to us about it. Just kind of the US
Speaker 1: market here, what are what what are the opportunities here
Speaker 1: in the US market relative to or compared with some
Speaker 1: of the existing technologies.
Speaker 6: Well, the US market is an interesting market in terms
Speaker 6: of IVS because fertilities is the global problem. And the
Speaker 6: problem is that you have huge demands for IVF and
Speaker 6: it's growing and very limited capacity. The clinics cannot scale
Speaker 6: so and and the demand is huge because we can
Speaker 6: freeze their eggs and we delay childbirth and you want
Speaker 6: to force the career and then new families and thoreography
Speaker 6: and all of this make IVS be very popular. But
Speaker 6: then the clinics in the US, you only have four
Speaker 6: hundred and eighty clinics that it, so only twenty percent
Speaker 6: of the need is actually being served. So eighty percent
Speaker 6: of people needing IDs, you know, just give up the
Speaker 6: dream of having a baby. And when you apply AI
Speaker 6: technologies in healthcare, and you know, IVF is a very
Speaker 6: good example. You reduce costs, you reduce time to pregnancy,
Speaker 6: you reduce money to pregnancy. You're able to scale the clinics.
Speaker 6: You could build new clinics that are based on AI technologies,
Speaker 6: and you know, much better and much more efficient. And
Speaker 6: you know, this is the way of again democratizing IDs
Speaker 6: and this is our mission.
Speaker 1: Well, it's a fascinating story. We appreciate you taking a
Speaker 1: few minutes, Danielle to kind of share it with us.
Speaker 1: Danielle Gilboa, co founder and CEO of AIVF.
Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg
Speaker 8: Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com,
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Speaker 1: One person that we've been talking to really since the
Speaker 1: beginning of the pandemic about the whole supply chain issue,
Speaker 1: which is something that most of us never even thought of.
Speaker 1: We just click on a button, assume it's gonna be
Speaker 1: at our door. The next day, we walk into a
Speaker 1: store and it's gonna be on the ni you know,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be on the shelf.
Speaker 5: And then the pandemic completely upended it all.
Speaker 1: And then the pandemic updated. Then we had to get
Speaker 1: smart on like, Okay, where does this stuff come from?
Speaker 1: How does it get shipped? How does it get transported? Oh,
Speaker 1: it goes to a dock, and then it's got to
Speaker 1: go nowhere else and then it's got to be put
Speaker 1: on a railroad or a truck. So we had to
Speaker 1: get smart on that. One of the folks that really
Speaker 1: really helped us was Gene Soroka, the CEO of the
Speaker 1: Port of La So he's been a good friend to
Speaker 1: keep us up to date on what's happening. And Gene,
Speaker 1: I know the story is first, I want to start
Speaker 1: with what's going on at your Port of Los Angeles
Speaker 1: because I know there's been a work You guys have
Speaker 1: been in negotiation with a lot of the unions and
Speaker 1: it looks like we have a breakthrough here in a
Speaker 1: last day or two. Give us an update there, Jene, Yeah.
Speaker 7: Good morning, Paul and Jess. You know it's interesting. This
Speaker 7: Wednesday night, it was announced by the Acting Labor Secretary
Speaker 7: Julie Sue that the Pacific Maritime Association, the Employers Group,
Speaker 7: and the International Lawn short Warehouse Union our dock Workers
Speaker 7: reached a tentative agreement on a new six year contract
Speaker 7: after thirteen months of negotiations. So welcome news across the
Speaker 7: board for importers, exporters and those of us who work
Speaker 7: in and follow the US economy so closely.
Speaker 5: And you said tentative, So what are the next steps.
Speaker 7: Yeah, this is a process, Jess, and it does rely
Speaker 7: on the very democratic and great brand of the ILWU.
Speaker 7: They're going to meet together as leadership here next month.
Speaker 7: Month they'll talk through the details of the tentative agreement
Speaker 7: to their delegates who will then go out to the
Speaker 7: twenty nine West coast ports and that they represent and
Speaker 7: socialize this with the membership, and then the rank and
Speaker 7: file will vote following that socialization process. So based on history,
Speaker 7: we're looking at a couple three months to get the
Speaker 7: contract fully ratified. That is a very important process to
Speaker 7: make sure the voices of those who were working on
Speaker 7: the docks every day get heard.
Speaker 1: All right, here's one of the things I learned during
Speaker 1: the pandemic, kind of appreciate people in society and the
Speaker 1: economy that you don't maybe think about often. One of course,
Speaker 1: was healthcare workers and you think about all the stuff
Speaker 1: they do and all the challenges they have to go
Speaker 1: through and how critical they were, and how much challenges
Speaker 1: were put on their shoulders and how much weight was
Speaker 1: put on their shoulders during the pandemic. And of course
Speaker 1: we thank the healthcare workers. But the other one was
Speaker 1: this whole supply chain thing. You don't really think about it,
Speaker 1: but the people on the front lines literally really the
Speaker 1: dock workers and all those people, how important they are
Speaker 1: to everyday daily life for all of.
Speaker 5: Us, so across the world.
Speaker 1: It's all across the world. And again, Jean's been kind
Speaker 1: of have to spend some time and bring it up,
Speaker 1: bring it to our attention here. So Jane talk to
Speaker 1: us about this contract as what it means for the
Speaker 1: workers there that again did just yeoman's work during all
Speaker 1: the time, but particularly during the pandemic.
Speaker 7: Yeah, this this was such an interesting time and with
Speaker 7: the benefit of history on our side. You know, these
Speaker 7: men and women were out there, whether they were truck drivers,
Speaker 7: warehouse folks working in the factories or or here on
Speaker 7: our docks before vaccines, before we know how pervasive COVID
Speaker 7: nineteen was going to be. I lived in China during
Speaker 7: SARS and I thought that was bad, you know, we
Speaker 7: were really hunkered down and we didn't travel, and we
Speaker 7: were watching out for our health and safety. But this
Speaker 7: was one thousand, ten thousand, whatever the experts say, worse
Speaker 7: than what I witnessed during that time in the early
Speaker 7: two thousand and These folks just went out to work,
Speaker 7: and then we saw the American consumer start buying more
Speaker 7: and more goods because we weren't going to ballgames or
Speaker 7: flying to see Grandma. And the amount of cargo that
Speaker 7: came through here was just unbelievable. And they met the
Speaker 7: challenge day in and day out. They averaged six days
Speaker 7: a week on the job here at the Port of
Speaker 7: Los Angeles, and it was just selfless and how they
Speaker 7: kept this American economy moving at a time where all
Speaker 7: of us, you know, we're just looking for answers. It
Speaker 7: was tremendous. So in this contract six years is really great.
Speaker 7: It gives stability to the workers, It gives confidence to
Speaker 7: the companies to bring more cargo back here to Los Angeles,
Speaker 7: and I think we'll talk about that in a moment too.
Speaker 7: But it also is going to make sure that they're
Speaker 7: paid what they're worth. We etioned whether it's the hourly
Speaker 7: wage based on the skills, the attainment, the accreditation to
Speaker 7: the healthcare and benefits that they receive, and a special
Speaker 7: thank you for what they did during the pandemic. I
Speaker 7: think that's going to at least from what I see.
Speaker 7: I just flew in from Tacoma last night. It was
Speaker 7: that the largest agriculture conference that Peter Friedman holds for
Speaker 7: the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, and we announced that night at
Speaker 7: the big dinner with six hundred guests there and everybody
Speaker 7: was so pleased. But I came back last night in
Speaker 7: part to be on your show here this morning and
Speaker 7: my discussions with the rank and file doc workers. I
Speaker 7: saw Melvin McKay, who represents Local ten in Oakland. I
Speaker 7: saw a bunch of guys from Seattle and Tacoma. They're
Speaker 7: just elated, good and they're really appreciative that so many
Speaker 7: of us recognize what they're doing every day.
Speaker 5: We actually had Bori Shore, an equity analyst from Columbia
Speaker 5: Thread Needles, speaking to us earlier when it comes to
Speaker 5: the retail consumer landscape. But when I think about these
Speaker 5: tenative deal when it comes to something like this, especially
Speaker 5: retailers like Walmart, Target that are starting to land this
Speaker 5: different type of merchandise for the critical back to school
Speaker 5: seasons as well as Paul was talking about obviously holidays
Speaker 5: coming up. When it comes to me acturers and automakers
Speaker 5: and food producers, what do you think this deal would
Speaker 5: actually mean when it comes to exporting those types of
Speaker 5: goods who rely on those Pacific ports.
Speaker 7: Well, Jess, this is where the work really begins, and
Speaker 7: we're so thankful again to the Acting Secretary Julie Sue,
Speaker 7: Jim McKenna, the PMA, Willie Adams International President of the
Speaker 7: ISLW for really going all out this week to get
Speaker 7: it done. Julie was on the ground for seventy two
Speaker 7: hours along with her staff, working around the clock trying
Speaker 7: to bring the two sides together, which was successful. What
Speaker 7: it means now is that I'm out on the road
Speaker 7: and I'm going to be crisscrossing the country talking to
Speaker 7: people like Jay Timmins at the Manufacturing Association, John Gold
Speaker 7: and Matt Shay at the National Retail Federation along with
Speaker 7: the importers and exporters to make sure that they understand
Speaker 7: what the ground truth is out here and how much
Speaker 7: we want their cargo back. You know, what's interesting is
Speaker 7: that for every five forty foot containers we moved through
Speaker 7: this port, we create a new job. And that's where
Speaker 7: it all begins, trying to help the American economy, getting
Speaker 7: people to come to work every day, put food on
Speaker 7: the table, put their kids through school. This is really
Speaker 7: the American economy at its finest right now, and I've
Speaker 7: got a big job ahead of me. It's a tall
Speaker 7: mountain to climb. But we need industry to come along
Speaker 7: with us, and I think the AG conference was a
Speaker 7: great start to that this week.
Speaker 1: So Gene, just give us about forty five seconds kind
Speaker 1: of where the Port of Los Angeles is now relative
Speaker 1: to its competition, and kind of where what you're looking
Speaker 1: to do going forward.
Speaker 6: Paul.
Speaker 7: We're running at about seventy percent of capacity right now.
Speaker 7: Half of that thirty percent that's open is cargo that
Speaker 7: shifted to the East and Gulf Coast because folks were
Speaker 7: quite concerned about what was going to happen in this negotiation.
Speaker 7: The other half or fifteen percentage points are really economic related.
Speaker 7: It's still high inventories of retailers, manufacturers, and others, but
Speaker 7: I'm starting to see the cargo coming across. We've got
Speaker 7: fifty eight ships traversing the Pacific right now. That's a
Speaker 7: good number and the highest it's been in sometime. We're
Speaker 7: going to get on a better cadence of calendar items
Speaker 7: back to school, fall, fashion, year end holidays starting here
Speaker 7: in the month of June. I like our chances for
Speaker 7: a good second half of the year.
Speaker 1: All right, Geen, as always, thanks so much for taking
Speaker 1: a few minutes and bringing us up to dat on
Speaker 1: what's happening in the all important supply chain.
Speaker 8: You're listening to the tape Can's our live program Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: You know, Jess. In my time at Bloomberg, I've been
Speaker 1: able to see many, many Bloomberg offices all around the world.
Speaker 1: You have, everyone is more awesome than the next. And
Speaker 1: we're sitting here at Bloomberg Global HQ, here at Midton Manhattan.
Speaker 1: It is an extraordinary office base. Yet there's like nobody here.
Speaker 1: And then I remember, oh, it's a Friday.
Speaker 5: Summer Friday, summer Friday, just new Friday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so go figure. So that brings up the big,
Speaker 1: bigger issue of getting folks back to work. Where do
Speaker 1: we go? I don't know, we're in here every day
Speaker 1: because we're on air, but a lot of folks have
Speaker 1: this flexible thing worked out to a to a t.
Speaker 1: So the question is where do we go from here?
Speaker 1: In a lot of I think boardrooms and c suites
Speaker 1: are trying to get a sense of that as well.
Speaker 1: Our next guest is going to help us think about that.
Speaker 1: Erica Keswin. She's an author and workplace strategists and she
Speaker 1: thinks about this stuff a lot, and she joins us
Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So, Eric, it
Speaker 1: seems like, as a result of the pandemic flex work,
Speaker 1: working three days a week, that seems to be the
Speaker 1: new norm. How do you think about it?
Speaker 11: Well, great to be here. I think about it a lot.
Speaker 11: Kind of keeps me up at night. You know, when
Speaker 11: you look at the data, you know seventy percent, seventeen
Speaker 11: percent of people want to be fully remote all the time.
Speaker 11: I think nineteen percent of the people say they want
Speaker 11: to be in the office all the time, and now
Speaker 11: that leaves most of the people in the middle. And
Speaker 11: so what I'm seeing is we are moving to that
Speaker 11: three day a week seems to be the norm, but
Speaker 11: i am I've spoken to a number of CEOs this
Speaker 11: week that are that are starting to make a shift,
Speaker 11: and they're making it in a couple of ways. Many
Speaker 11: of them have been saying, you know what, you can
Speaker 11: come in two or three days a week and pick
Speaker 11: whatever days you want. I think those days are few
Speaker 11: and far between because what's happening is people come in
Speaker 11: and you're missing each other. There's no energy, and so
Speaker 11: you're not really getting the bank for the buck of
Speaker 11: bringing people in. So I'm seeing a shift too. Let's
Speaker 11: do three days, two days, four days, whatever it is,
Speaker 11: but these are the days because what you want to
Speaker 11: do is to create connection and energy. I mean, I'm
Speaker 11: here in the Bloomberg offices. There are people and there
Speaker 11: are energy, and so that is a big shift that
Speaker 11: I'm seeing.
Speaker 5: And here in the office, I have to point out
Speaker 5: New York City office occupancy breaking fifty percent for the
Speaker 5: first time since the pandemic. How do we get here?
Speaker 11: You know, I think people are realizing that there's been
Speaker 11: this slow erosion of the cold sure of their organization.
Speaker 11: And it's not to say that remote and hybrid companies
Speaker 11: don't have cultures, because they do.
Speaker 5: But it's hard.
Speaker 11: And so if you decide that you're going to be
Speaker 11: not in the office, you've got to put resources and
Speaker 11: energy around building a culture in a remote or hybrid way.
Speaker 11: It's doable, but you have to put a lot of
Speaker 11: energy success.
Speaker 1: Have you seen any success stories there?
Speaker 9: Yes?
Speaker 1: What's working? What's not working?
Speaker 11: So I talk a lot about designing a day in
Speaker 11: the office that's worth the commute, and what you don't want. Again,
Speaker 11: we're in New York City, so we have people coming
Speaker 11: into New York City from Connecticut, from Westchester, from Montclair,
Speaker 11: New Jersey. Right, they're coming in. What we don't want
Speaker 11: and then I'll tell you the success stories and what
Speaker 11: we do want. But what we don't want is people
Speaker 11: coming in and no one from their team is there,
Speaker 11: and they're on zoom all day and they're not seeing anybody,
Speaker 11: and that it creates what I call the recipe for resentment.
Speaker 11: They are mad because they've commuted an hour and a
Speaker 11: half from wherever it is they live. So Instead, we
Speaker 11: need to design days in the office or even moments
Speaker 11: that matter for people where they do feel connection. So
Speaker 11: what do those look like? Some companies build it around
Speaker 11: learning and development. If we don't help our people grow
Speaker 11: and develop, I describe it as up, down and sideways,
Speaker 11: they're going to quit. So you bring people together, have
Speaker 11: a speaker, a lunche and learn, bring people together to
Speaker 11: learn something. Other companies, you know, they align it with
Speaker 11: their values. Some of them might do service work. Let's
Speaker 11: have every you know, the first Wednesday of the month
Speaker 11: when our people come in, maybe Wednesdays our big day
Speaker 11: when everybody commutes in, and we're going to have an
Speaker 11: opportunity to give back to our local community. Maybe it's
Speaker 11: when managers do their one on ones. Maybe it's when
Speaker 11: there's a big strategy meeting. And so it doesn't necessarily
Speaker 11: matter what it is, but it needs to be intentional
Speaker 11: because also what I say, and it's a little cheesy,
Speaker 11: but bear with me, it's left to our own devices.
Speaker 11: We're not connecting.
Speaker 1: That's right, And I think where are we in this
Speaker 1: kind of this whole there's almost a generation, not a generation,
Speaker 1: but certainly three or four years of young workers and
Speaker 1: my oldest twins are part of that crew. They've never
Speaker 1: had that. They've always kind of been remote, and so
Speaker 1: they don't have that cultural bias that, oh this is unusual.
Speaker 1: They're default is why am I coming into the office,
Speaker 1: as opposed to the fault is why are you're working
Speaker 1: at home?
Speaker 11: Well, and there is a big generational thing going on.
Speaker 11: I too have twins.
Speaker 1: My post are twenty.
Speaker 11: But one of the you know, people are living longer
Speaker 11: and they're working longer. So in many companies we have
Speaker 11: five generations of people working under the same roof, and
Speaker 11: the older people are now starting to realize, wow, these
Speaker 11: younger gen z, they don't want to be me right.
Speaker 11: You know, it used to be you'd go to a
Speaker 11: law firm or an investment bank and everybody did. Their
Speaker 11: goal was to become the partner. So things really are shifting.
Speaker 11: The other thing that we're seeing is that some of
Speaker 11: the you know, the gen z, the younger generation, are
Speaker 11: missing some of those soft skills. They don't even know
Speaker 11: how to use the phone. And so it's the bridging
Speaker 11: these generations together, understanding where people are and trying to
Speaker 11: meet them where they are and bring, you know, bring
Speaker 11: together the boat all the most positive sides of each generation.
Speaker 5: When it comes to these occupancy rates, how does this
Speaker 5: vary across different industries?
Speaker 11: You know, like you said, you guys have to be
Speaker 11: in the office, right, so you're here. You know, there
Speaker 11: are huge percentages of people never went home in the pandemic,
Speaker 11: and all these conversations that we're having about everybody being
Speaker 11: at home.
Speaker 9: It's the knowledge.
Speaker 11: Workers and so, not the hospitals, not the restaurants. And
Speaker 11: so when we think across industries, some people are like,
Speaker 11: what are you talking about? We never we never went home.
Speaker 11: So all of these conversations around, you know, the occupancy
Speaker 11: rates really are around, you know, the workers that don't
Speaker 11: technically have to be there, which is why we want
Speaker 11: to design time in the office that that is worth it,
Speaker 11: and to think about the why and not just say
Speaker 11: not you know, let's do three days or four days
Speaker 11: just because generationally it's what we've always done. Let's think
Speaker 11: about the why when we do come together, what are
Speaker 11: we going to be doing and why is it better
Speaker 11: for us to do these five things in person?
Speaker 1: You know, I've seen a lot of I guess survey
Speaker 1: work that says, you know, and this is in London,
Speaker 1: New York everywhere saying if my company makes me come
Speaker 1: in five days, I will definitely think about leaving and
Speaker 1: getting a different job. Now, I wonder when the economy,
Speaker 1: if the economy slows, when the economy slows, when the
Speaker 1: unemployment rate is no longer three point seven percent, it
Speaker 1: gets up to four four and a half five percent,
Speaker 1: are do companies think that then maybe they'll have a
Speaker 1: little bit of leverage.
Speaker 11: They do, but I would disagree, because your top talent
Speaker 11: that you want to keep, they have options. You know,
Speaker 11: even with the economy slowing, even with all the tech layoffs,
Speaker 11: what we're seeing is these people leave and they do
Speaker 11: have another job pretty soon right after. My opinion on
Speaker 11: this is that if you are, if you're a Goldman Saxe,
Speaker 11: if you're some of these companies that are paying at
Speaker 11: a certain percentile, and and people want to work there
Speaker 11: because of the cachet of working there and the experience
Speaker 11: of working at you know, some of certain companies, some
Speaker 11: of the top law firms, you know, the banks, they're
Speaker 11: gonna they're gonna come in five days a week, they are,
Speaker 11: and then they're gonna do it until they're and then
Speaker 11: they're going to leave. But a CEO said to me
Speaker 11: this week, you know, party's over. In those words, he said,
Speaker 11: the party's over. We are bringing our people back, and
Speaker 11: I said, you know, let's kind of see what happened.
Speaker 11: He's doing four and one, so four days in, one
Speaker 11: day out. And they're not those kinds of banks and
Speaker 11: law firms that are going to be able to justify,
Speaker 11: in my opinion, doing it, because I think the minute people,
Speaker 11: the good people get another job, they're going to be out.
Speaker 5: How great is the scope of the danger of trying
Speaker 5: to advance your career if you aren't coming into the office,
Speaker 5: and especially the Paul's point when he's talking about the
Speaker 5: younger generation that's just coming out of college and might
Speaker 5: not be in office every single day.
Speaker 11: So I'm a big believer of coming into the office,
Speaker 11: not coming in for the you know, just the sake
Speaker 11: of being in the office. If you are listening to
Speaker 11: this and you're a leader and you're asking your young
Speaker 11: people to come in, you need to make sure some
Speaker 11: of the older people, some of the more experienced people
Speaker 11: are there, because what's the point. I mean, yes, they'll
Speaker 11: meet the other interns, they'll meet the other young people,
Speaker 11: and there's a real benefit to that. You know, most
Speaker 11: people meet the most important people in their lives at work.
Speaker 11: I mean it's where, you know, the way it's always been.
Speaker 5: It is shifting.
Speaker 11: But if the more senior people aren't there to help
Speaker 11: them develop, and just don't assume because we all happen
Speaker 11: to be under the same roof that the young people
Speaker 11: are going to be mentored. I do worry that proximity
Speaker 11: bias is real, and so flexibility. I think a lot
Speaker 11: about that for the young people. I don't think that
Speaker 11: they're all going to get picked for the best assignments
Speaker 11: if they're never showing up. And I also worry about
Speaker 11: it for women that if you have, you know, a
Speaker 11: husband and a wife, and the husband's like, all right,
Speaker 11: I have flexible work, but I'm I'm going to go
Speaker 11: in and the women aren't. I think it's going to
Speaker 11: take women twenty steps back.
Speaker 1: Erica, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Erica Keswin, author and workplace strategist, author of Bring Your
Speaker 1: Human to Work, Tensurefiaways to design a workplace that's good
Speaker 1: for people, great for business, and just make change the world.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.
Speaker 1: And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio