1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: This has been a week with so much going on 8 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: again with the central bankers, but better to bring in 9 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: I know exactly in the last couple of weeks has 10 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: really been a lot of economic data as well here 11 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: which has been very influential for the Fed. We want 12 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,559 Speaker 1: to bring on our next guest, Claudia Sam, founder and 13 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: independent economist at Some Consulting. Claudia, thanks so much for 14 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: joining us here again, a lot of economic data for 15 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: this market to digest. What for you are you focusing 16 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 1: on right now? 17 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: Well, obviously the game in town is inflation, the consumer inflation, 18 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: and we really got by getting the consumer inflation and 19 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 3: the next day the producer inflation. 20 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 4: You had kind of a signal between the two. 21 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 3: But we still see a lot of disinflation in the pipeline. 22 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 4: It's just it's not there yet so. 23 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: And like you said, there was a whole wealth of 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 3: data that came in the last two weeks, and it's 25 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,559 Speaker 3: I think it's caused the FEDS and problems that we've 26 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 3: seen multiple times, a lot of data come in during 27 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 3: their blackout period, so you don't have reserve bank presence, 28 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 3: you don't have chair Powel out there interpreting the data, 29 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 3: and I think they get a little stuck with where 30 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 3: the consensus and markets was before they had to go 31 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 3: dark for a while. 32 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 5: And I have to point out how Claudia is the 33 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 5: creator of the Psalm rule, which is that recession indicator 34 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 5: that is used by the FED. What do you think 35 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 5: that is telling us at this point amidst all of 36 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 5: this debate about where the economy is headed right now. 37 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: So we're not in a recession right now. I mean, 38 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 3: the Sam rule is a recession indicator, it doesn't forecast 39 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: a recession, and I think it's just a way to summarize. 40 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 4: When you look at all of the labor market data, 41 00:01:58,680 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 4: it's really good. 42 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 3: I mean, if you told us a year ago the 43 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 3: Fed's going to raise five percentage points and the labor 44 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: market is going to be well below four in unemployment. 45 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 3: I mean, it just it almost doesn't make sense except 46 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: the labor market is strong, it is able to buffer 47 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 3: what the Fed is doing to a large extent. 48 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: So cloudy. I mean, A big part of the pushback 49 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: on a recession call, or certainly one that would call 50 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: for a longer, deeper recession call, is that the consumer's 51 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: in pretty good shape. As you mentioned, you know, most 52 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: folks want a job, have a job. Retail sales still 53 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: remain pretty strong. How do you kind of put all 54 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: that together? 55 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 3: What we knew coming into this this year, late last year, 56 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 3: the consumer up and down the income distribution, had a 57 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: lot of money on the side, a lot to buffer. Now, 58 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 3: this money will run out. It's not like it's forever, 59 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 3: but that's something that US consumers, a big group of families, 60 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 3: have never gone into a recession with this kind of 61 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 3: a buffer. So you really watching physical policy versus monetary 62 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 3: policy play out. And I do think at some point 63 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: the Fed's going to get the upper hand. It's a 64 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: big question if they've done too much. But as of 65 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 3: right now, things are good, especially for consumers, which are 66 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 3: seventy percent of the economy. 67 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:20,839 Speaker 5: Have we gotten to a point where the FED has 68 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 5: been too aggressive to try to lower inflation, or do 69 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 5: you think where they are pausing or potential skip the 70 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 5: debate here, this is the proper point to do it. 71 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 3: So I think a pause at this point was appropriate. 72 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 4: Just they've gone really fast and really hard. 73 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 3: It's an opportunity for the rest of the economy to 74 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 3: catch up and then assess. What I found very puzzling 75 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 3: in the statement this last meeting and share pilot the 76 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 3: press conference is they're like, we're going to pause here, 77 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 3: but almost all the participants think we're going to have 78 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 3: to raise later. 79 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: And it's like, if you really. 80 00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: Think that, why are you pausing right now? 81 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 6: Right? 82 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 4: It didn't quite hang together. 83 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 3: That was a hawkish pause, but I think they kind 84 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 3: of pushed it past what was It was kind of 85 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 3: a confusing hawkish pause. 86 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 5: When you looked at the dots, dots go also in 87 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 5: the terminal and to see the wide divergence there between members. 88 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 5: Was that surprising to you or is that something that 89 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 5: you typically would see in the midst of when you 90 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 5: are getting to a point toward rate hiking cycles ending. 91 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 3: Or it is heartening to see that the FMC participants 92 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 3: are having a robust debate both externally and particularly internally, 93 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 3: and these dots, particularly you go out in the out years. 94 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 4: I mean, if we. 95 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 3: Didn't see some dispersion, it would be a problem. 96 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 7: Right. 97 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 3: They are being very clear that maybe they've done enough, 98 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 3: maybe they've done too much, maybe they haven't done enough. 99 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 3: So I the dispersion in the dots, I think, especially 100 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 3: as you go out over the forecast, makes a lot 101 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: of sense to me. We are going to end up 102 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 3: higher than five percent this year. Like I said, I 103 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 3: find that a little bit harder to get how the 104 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 3: decision and the messaging hang together. 105 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: Hey, Claudia, just for me, I feel like one of 106 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: the limits to my analysis of kind of economic conditions 107 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: is I just spend way too much time in the 108 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,359 Speaker 1: greater New York area. I don't get out much, and 109 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: when I do, I tendify myself on the West Coast. 110 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: So am I really out there seeing what's going on? 111 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: Do you get it? Are you ever concerned that the 112 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: macroeconomic data we get from the government isn't really representing 113 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: kind of what it's like out there day to day 114 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 1: for the average American? 115 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 3: Well, in fact, we do have official data that looks 116 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: at states, even looks at counties, through the labor market 117 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 3: area unemployment statistics. Now, the problem is these come out 118 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 3: a couple weeks after Jobs Day, you know, and we've 119 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 3: all moved on and at CPI and for some reason 120 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 3: analysis from one of my Bloomberg opinion columns, I looked 121 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 3: at these differences and it was actually inspired by talking 122 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,359 Speaker 3: to a journalist who covers New York and was like, 123 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 3: the dispairit. He's pretty the right. Racial disparities haven't closed 124 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 3: in that way in New York. 125 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 4: As they have in the country. 126 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 3: And looking at you know, the places you go to visit, 127 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 3: I mean, California is another one that actually has seen 128 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 3: their unemployment rate creep up in a way that you know, 129 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 3: if they were getting the some rule, you know, as 130 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: they were the whole country, really they would be in 131 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 3: a recession. 132 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 4: Not to say they are. 133 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 3: There's a lot of things happening regionally. 134 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 4: We have to be very careful. 135 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 3: Often the problems in a regional economy don't spread to 136 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 3: the rest, but sometimes they do. So it's important, I think, 137 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 3: to look at those And frankly, it's just because the 138 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 3: data comes out a little later that I think it 139 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 3: doesn't get it's due attention. 140 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 5: We did hear from FED Governor Christopher Waller earlier this morning. 141 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 5: He's a voting member, as you know, and talking about 142 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 5: how fears over a few banks shouldn't alter their policy. 143 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 5: Was bet your Jerome pal forced to have to have 144 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 5: that hawkish rhetoric after the decision on Wednesday in order 145 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 5: to keep the FEDS options more flexible in case there 146 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 5: is so unforeseen issue when it comes to the economy, 147 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 5: or when it comes to some of these bank stresses 148 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 5: that we saw earlier this year with the regionals. 149 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 3: So they hiked twice right after bank failures, and so 150 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 3: I don't feel like that was playing a big role 151 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: in the pause. They've only got a month between now 152 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 3: in July in terms of data, so I don't know 153 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 3: exactly how they think what was appropriate this this month, 154 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: you know, won't be appropriate next month. But we'll see 155 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 3: when they do those those extra hikes. Yeah, so I 156 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 3: think that's I guess that's the thing that I would emphasize. 157 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: So, Claudia, as fast forward as a little bit to 158 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: the July meeting, what do you think the FED does here? 159 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 3: I think it'll lean heavily on what happens in the 160 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 3: consumer prices. They did in this last data release, they 161 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 3: got some relief on this super core their you know, 162 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 3: core services without housing. 163 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 4: They need to see it. 164 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 3: Overall in core core has been very sticky. 165 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 4: It's been very, very. 166 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: Painful to watch it just move along. 167 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 7: Now. 168 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 3: They're not going to take one month of good data 169 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 3: and hang their hat on it. So I think they 170 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 3: are looking in the banking sector. 171 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 4: They're looking not. 172 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 3: To look for another failure, but to look for the 173 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: credit tightening. 174 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: Enough, so all right, Claudia, thanks so much for joining us. 175 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: Claudi Sam, She's founder and independent economists with some consulting. 176 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,239 Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's live program Bloomberg Markets 177 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 8: weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com, the 178 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 8: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 179 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 8: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 180 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 5: Paul, I feel like, because we are we had the 181 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 5: FED meeting earlier this week, we had retail sales yesterday 182 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 5: coming in stronger than what people were expecting. I feel 183 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 5: like we have to unpack that with our next guest, 184 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 5: and who better to do it with than Mari Shore, 185 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 5: senior equity analyst at Columbia thread Needle Investments, who's going 186 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 5: to talk to us about that retail sales report. Obviously 187 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 5: the consumer strength and inflation. Mari, break it down for us. 188 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 5: What is your take on the latest round of data 189 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 5: when it's related to the consumer. 190 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 9: Yes, thanks again for having me. 191 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 10: The May data was definitely encouraging given the tougher compare, 192 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 10: and it does reflect the underlying resiliency of the consumer. 193 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 10: But I also think we did see the benefit from 194 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 10: warmer weather following a cooler April, and also additional holidays, 195 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 10: and we know that the consumer is showing up around 196 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 10: holidays and key events. But as we do look forward, 197 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 10: I would say the outlook is still more cautious, as 198 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 10: temperatures are expected to be cooler in the early summer, 199 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 10: and we continue to see the consumer shifts spending towards 200 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 10: needs from wants and towards services away from goods. 201 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: So we talk about temperature is supposed to be cooler 202 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: in June and July. Wait a minute, that's not good. 203 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: I'm a beach person. I need to get the side compound. Yeah, exactly, So, 204 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: I mean, Mari, what it's interesting thing when you think 205 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: about spending out there, is it across the board or 206 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: are there pockets of depending upon income levels, stronger weaker 207 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: than the others, or is there just do some of 208 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 1: these macro trend levels Are they pretty representative across the board? 209 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 10: Well, we are definitely seeing a broad divergence between categories. 210 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 10: So I would say the weakest categories remain some of 211 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 10: the big ticket categories that were strongest during the pandemic, 212 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 10: like home related items consumer electronics, while the strongest categories 213 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 10: remain health and wellness, e commerce which has recently picked 214 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 10: up again, and also eating out, which really plays into 215 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 10: the strength in experiences. When we think about different income demographics, 216 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 10: I would say we've really seen a broad slowing across 217 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 10: the spectrum. We know that the low income consumer is 218 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 10: still under pressure from higher food inflation, but even at 219 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 10: the higher income levels we have seen a slowdown, which 220 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 10: is likely related to the market volatility. 221 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 9: We've seen the weakness and the. 222 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 10: Housing market, and also some questions as to the jobs outlook. 223 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 5: So how does this alter your projections when it comes 224 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 5: to earnings growth moving forward? 225 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 9: It doesn't really. 226 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 10: It really supports I think what I've been saying for 227 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 10: some time, and that is that the consumer in aggregate 228 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 10: still looks strong. But again, when you dig a little deeper. 229 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 10: You continue to see that shift towards goods from service 230 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 10: I'm sorry, towards services from goods and towards needs from wants, 231 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 10: and so as we move through the year, especially with 232 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 10: the rising risk of recession, as I know some of 233 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 10: your prior guests have discussed, I think it really does 234 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 10: place risk on the company's guidance for the year, which 235 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 10: is very much back half weighted, And as we think 236 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 10: about what the key driver of sales could be going forward, 237 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,439 Speaker 10: it is a little bit more difficult to identify. 238 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 9: If you think about during the. 239 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 10: Pandemic, most of the companies drove sales growth through pricing, 240 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 10: and that is no longer a lever that the retailers 241 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 10: can pull. And so now you really need to see 242 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 10: unit demand accelerate to see stronger sales growth. And I 243 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 10: think it is hard to identify a catalyst for that 244 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 10: stronger unit demand into the back half the year given 245 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 10: the macro pressures that we've discussed. 246 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 5: And to your point, you were talking about those price 247 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 5: hikes that have gone on for multiple quarters now maybe 248 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 5: not being able to see that continue. Campbell, super instance, 249 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 5: signaled that recently that consumers might be less willing to 250 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 5: put a but those price increases. General Mills actually flagged 251 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 5: that similarly in an investor day as well. When it 252 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 5: comes to the margin pain that a lot of household 253 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 5: products companies, packaged goods, beverage stocks have been under. Is 254 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 5: most of that pain passed yet or is more to 255 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 5: come on the margin front. 256 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 10: It's a great question. There's lots of moving pieces on margin. 257 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 10: I would say from a input cost standpoint, given the 258 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 10: disinflation we've seen and a lot of the key commodities, 259 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 10: they will see less pressure on the margin line from that. However, 260 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 10: promotions are normalizing normalizing, which will be a headwind. And 261 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 10: in addition, we've heard retailers talk about issues like shrink 262 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 10: or theft, which is a huge headwind. 263 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 9: For them this year. 264 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 10: And also for retailers like Target and Walmart and the 265 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 10: warehouse clubs, they are seeing unfavorable category mix. 266 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 9: Pressure their margins. 267 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 10: So this year was setting up to be a pretty 268 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 10: easy year from a margin standpoint, just due to easy comparisons. 269 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 9: But as it's played. 270 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 10: Out, I think we've seen that the headwinds are now 271 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 10: seemingly more than offsetting the tailwinds on the margin line. 272 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: Mario, I know it's only June. But let's start thinking 273 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: a little bit ahead here, first back to school and 274 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: second holiday season. What are the retailers saying at this 275 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: point as to expectations. 276 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think for the retailers this year into holiday, 277 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 10: given the macro headwinds and the demand normalization in some 278 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 10: of these discretionary categories, their real focus is just on 279 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 10: planning conservatively so that they are able to keep inventory 280 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 10: as closely aligned with sales as possible so they do 281 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 10: not face the kind of markdown risk that they saw 282 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 10: last year and last holiday season. 283 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 9: I think there's. 284 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 10: Also maybe a couple select opportunities, like, for instance, with 285 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 10: the bed bath and beyond bankruptcy, you've heard a couple 286 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 10: retailers talking about going after the home category in a 287 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 10: bigger way. 288 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 9: To try to pick up some of that share. 289 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 10: But I think in general, the retailers are very mindful 290 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 10: of the more cautious macro backdrop, and they're really just 291 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 10: trying to plan their business as conservatively as possible so 292 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 10: that they can try to protect their margin rate even 293 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 10: if sales come in a little bit slower. 294 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 5: We only have about forty five seconds left. You mentioned 295 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 5: theft picking up. Why is that. 296 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 9: It's a great question. 297 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 10: You know, some of the retail executives that we've spoken 298 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 10: about have said that in their decades of experience, they 299 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 10: have never seen such a broad based pickup in theft. Again, 300 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 10: that's across the country, across store type, whether. 301 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 9: It's rural versus urban. I think it. 302 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 10: Really reflects the macro draft backdrop that we find ourselves 303 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 10: in and maybe some of the legal changes in terms 304 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 10: of what it takes to prosecute some of these fats 305 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 10: as felonies versus maybe more minor charges. 306 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 9: But you've really heard all. 307 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 10: Of the retailers talk about it, whether it be a 308 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 10: grocery store, a target, a home depot, an alta. And 309 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 10: it's something that they're all really working hard on, but 310 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 10: they are also trying to prevent theft, theft and not 311 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 10: sacrifice sales. 312 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: All right, Mari, thank you so much for joining us. 313 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: Always appreciate speaking with you, getting your perspective on the 314 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: retail space. Maris Share, senior equity analysts at Columbia thread Needle. 315 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the. 316 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 8: Tape cans Are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten 317 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 8: am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The tune in app Bloomberg 318 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 8: dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 319 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 8: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 320 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,479 Speaker 8: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 321 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 5: We're going to switch things up do more of a 322 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 5: C suite conversation tool, and this is a really important conversation. 323 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to our next guest, Daniella Gilboa, the 324 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 5: co founder and CEO of AIVF, an AI healthcare company. 325 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 5: She's joining us to discuss healthcare tech and IVF technology 326 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 5: is an important conversation for many. Danielle, thank you so 327 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 5: much for joining us. How are you? 328 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 6: I'm great, Thank you for having me. 329 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 5: Well, tell us about your company and what you do. 330 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 6: Sorry I missed that for a second. Can you reput 331 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 6: the question. 332 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 5: Tell us about your company and your mission. 333 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 6: Yeah. So we're here to democratize and optimized if the 334 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 6: IVF journey and what we do is we developed an 335 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:55,400 Speaker 6: AI model that understands and analyze embryos better than any 336 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 6: human being. And the million dollar question of which a 337 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 6: will become a baby? We have an ancestors, so our 338 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 6: models analyze the embryos and are able to detect and 339 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 6: recognize different features, so with different outcomes, and so we 340 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 6: are uh, this is the way of optimizing IVF. 341 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: So, Gabrielle, I've have some experience with us, and I'm 342 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 1: a big fan of IVF and thank you Medical College 343 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: of Virginia MCV. How does your technology work? How does 344 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence which is the buzzword for every industry out there? 345 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: Now I have another one to add to it, which 346 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: is in vitrio fertilization. How does it work? How does 347 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: it work. 348 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 9: Well? 349 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 6: Before any AI development? What we we do in IVF 350 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 6: clinics is we would analyze embryos based on morphology or 351 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 6: the way that the embryo looks or looks under the microscope. 352 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 6: So this is very subjective human analysis. This is very guestimation. 353 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 6: Like what we do with AI is that we train 354 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 6: the model on huge amounts of data images of embryos 355 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 6: and videos of embryos and patients backwards. And so the 356 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 6: AI could again I said before, I detect different features 357 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 6: that the human eye cannot see and come up with 358 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 6: a score that's much more accurate than any embryologist or 359 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 6: physician could realize. And this is really the way of 360 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 6: democratizing our Yeah, what I mean is that the million 361 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 6: dollar question of which embryo will become a baby and 362 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 6: which embryo we select to transfort back to mummy's uterists. 363 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 6: Instead of having it as a tilent error. Now you 364 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 6: have an accurate way of doing it. And ai as 365 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 6: ai sauld you know, because. 366 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: So that Danielle has your tech, has your technology? Has 367 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: your technology been deployed in the marketplace? And if so, 368 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: kind of what's the efficacy here or the success right? 369 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 9: H Yeah? 370 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 6: So the technologies is deployed in across Europe and Southeast 371 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 6: Asia and South America and the US very soon. 372 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 5: Uh. 373 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 6: And yes we have h and we have reports from 374 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 6: you know, from clinics uh saying that they have in 375 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:25,959 Speaker 6: pressed success rates and they're actually changing their pricing model. 376 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 6: Instead of pricing its pair treatment, they price it pair 377 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 6: baby because they now have a system that they can 378 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 6: trust and it's reliable and it's accurate, and it's just 379 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 6: the impact is so amazing that you know, we're we're 380 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 6: very honored to be doing it. 381 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 5: How does the regulation work? 382 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 6: It's uh, well, you know, ai as ai is something 383 00:20:54,960 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 6: that regulatory organizations study. It's not yet uh confirmed, but 384 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 6: but it's fully regulated. We have the ce Mark and 385 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 6: the FDA very soon. So it needs to be regulated. 386 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 6: You know, it's something that. 387 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 5: We push when you say, you say how soon regulated 388 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 5: when you say soon, how soon? 389 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 6: As soon as in a few months, So. 390 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 1: Talk to us about it. Just kind of the US 391 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: market here, what are what what are the opportunities here 392 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: in the US market relative to or compared with some 393 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: of the existing technologies. 394 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 6: Well, the US market is an interesting market in terms 395 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 6: of IVS because fertilities is the global problem. And the 396 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 6: problem is that you have huge demands for IVF and 397 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 6: it's growing and very limited capacity. The clinics cannot scale 398 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 6: so and and the demand is huge because we can 399 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 6: freeze their eggs and we delay childbirth and you want 400 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 6: to force the career and then new families and thoreography 401 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 6: and all of this make IVS be very popular. But 402 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 6: then the clinics in the US, you only have four 403 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 6: hundred and eighty clinics that it, so only twenty percent 404 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 6: of the need is actually being served. So eighty percent 405 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 6: of people needing IDs, you know, just give up the 406 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 6: dream of having a baby. And when you apply AI 407 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 6: technologies in healthcare, and you know, IVF is a very 408 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 6: good example. You reduce costs, you reduce time to pregnancy, 409 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 6: you reduce money to pregnancy. You're able to scale the clinics. 410 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 6: You could build new clinics that are based on AI technologies, 411 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 6: and you know, much better and much more efficient. And 412 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 6: you know, this is the way of again democratizing IDs 413 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 6: and this is our mission. 414 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: Well, it's a fascinating story. We appreciate you taking a 415 00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: few minutes, Danielle to kind of share it with us. 416 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: Danielle Gilboa, co founder and CEO of AIVF. 417 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 418 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 8: Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, 419 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 8: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 420 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 8: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 421 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 1: One person that we've been talking to really since the 422 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: beginning of the pandemic about the whole supply chain issue, 423 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: which is something that most of us never even thought of. 424 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: We just click on a button, assume it's gonna be 425 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: at our door. The next day, we walk into a 426 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: store and it's gonna be on the ni you know, 427 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:33,719 Speaker 1: it's gonna be on the shelf. 428 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 5: And then the pandemic completely upended it all. 429 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 1: And then the pandemic updated. Then we had to get 430 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: smart on like, Okay, where does this stuff come from? 431 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 1: How does it get shipped? How does it get transported? Oh, 432 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: it goes to a dock, and then it's got to 433 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: go nowhere else and then it's got to be put 434 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: on a railroad or a truck. So we had to 435 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: get smart on that. One of the folks that really 436 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: really helped us was Gene Soroka, the CEO of the 437 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: Port of La So he's been a good friend to 438 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: keep us up to date on what's happening. And Gene, 439 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: I know the story is first, I want to start 440 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: with what's going on at your Port of Los Angeles 441 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: because I know there's been a work You guys have 442 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: been in negotiation with a lot of the unions and 443 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: it looks like we have a breakthrough here in a 444 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: last day or two. Give us an update there, Jene, Yeah. 445 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 7: Good morning, Paul and Jess. You know it's interesting. This 446 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 7: Wednesday night, it was announced by the Acting Labor Secretary 447 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 7: Julie Sue that the Pacific Maritime Association, the Employers Group, 448 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 7: and the International Lawn short Warehouse Union our dock Workers 449 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 7: reached a tentative agreement on a new six year contract 450 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 7: after thirteen months of negotiations. So welcome news across the 451 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 7: board for importers, exporters and those of us who work 452 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 7: in and follow the US economy so closely. 453 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 5: And you said tentative, So what are the next steps. 454 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 7: Yeah, this is a process, Jess, and it does rely 455 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 7: on the very democratic and great brand of the ILWU. 456 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 7: They're going to meet together as leadership here next month. 457 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 7: Month they'll talk through the details of the tentative agreement 458 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 7: to their delegates who will then go out to the 459 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 7: twenty nine West coast ports and that they represent and 460 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 7: socialize this with the membership, and then the rank and 461 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 7: file will vote following that socialization process. So based on history, 462 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 7: we're looking at a couple three months to get the 463 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 7: contract fully ratified. That is a very important process to 464 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 7: make sure the voices of those who were working on 465 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 7: the docks every day get heard. 466 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: All right, here's one of the things I learned during 467 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: the pandemic, kind of appreciate people in society and the 468 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: economy that you don't maybe think about often. One of course, 469 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 1: was healthcare workers and you think about all the stuff 470 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: they do and all the challenges they have to go 471 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: through and how critical they were, and how much challenges 472 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: were put on their shoulders and how much weight was 473 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: put on their shoulders during the pandemic. And of course 474 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: we thank the healthcare workers. But the other one was 475 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: this whole supply chain thing. You don't really think about it, 476 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 1: but the people on the front lines literally really the 477 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: dock workers and all those people, how important they are 478 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: to everyday daily life for all of. 479 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 5: Us, so across the world. 480 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 1: It's all across the world. And again, Jean's been kind 481 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 1: of have to spend some time and bring it up, 482 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 1: bring it to our attention here. So Jane talk to 483 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,399 Speaker 1: us about this contract as what it means for the 484 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: workers there that again did just yeoman's work during all 485 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 1: the time, but particularly during the pandemic. 486 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, this this was such an interesting time and with 487 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 7: the benefit of history on our side. You know, these 488 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 7: men and women were out there, whether they were truck drivers, 489 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 7: warehouse folks working in the factories or or here on 490 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 7: our docks before vaccines, before we know how pervasive COVID 491 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 7: nineteen was going to be. I lived in China during 492 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 7: SARS and I thought that was bad, you know, we 493 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,959 Speaker 7: were really hunkered down and we didn't travel, and we 494 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 7: were watching out for our health and safety. But this 495 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 7: was one thousand, ten thousand, whatever the experts say, worse 496 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 7: than what I witnessed during that time in the early 497 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 7: two thousand and These folks just went out to work, 498 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 7: and then we saw the American consumer start buying more 499 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 7: and more goods because we weren't going to ballgames or 500 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 7: flying to see Grandma. And the amount of cargo that 501 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 7: came through here was just unbelievable. And they met the 502 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 7: challenge day in and day out. They averaged six days 503 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,199 Speaker 7: a week on the job here at the Port of 504 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 7: Los Angeles, and it was just selfless and how they 505 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 7: kept this American economy moving at a time where all 506 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 7: of us, you know, we're just looking for answers. It 507 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 7: was tremendous. So in this contract six years is really great. 508 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 7: It gives stability to the workers, It gives confidence to 509 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 7: the companies to bring more cargo back here to Los Angeles, 510 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 7: and I think we'll talk about that in a moment too. 511 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 7: But it also is going to make sure that they're 512 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,479 Speaker 7: paid what they're worth. We etioned whether it's the hourly 513 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 7: wage based on the skills, the attainment, the accreditation to 514 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 7: the healthcare and benefits that they receive, and a special 515 00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 7: thank you for what they did during the pandemic. I 516 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 7: think that's going to at least from what I see. 517 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 7: I just flew in from Tacoma last night. It was 518 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 7: that the largest agriculture conference that Peter Friedman holds for 519 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:12,959 Speaker 7: the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, and we announced that night at 520 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 7: the big dinner with six hundred guests there and everybody 521 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 7: was so pleased. But I came back last night in 522 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 7: part to be on your show here this morning and 523 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 7: my discussions with the rank and file doc workers. I 524 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,480 Speaker 7: saw Melvin McKay, who represents Local ten in Oakland. I 525 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 7: saw a bunch of guys from Seattle and Tacoma. They're 526 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 7: just elated, good and they're really appreciative that so many 527 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 7: of us recognize what they're doing every day. 528 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 5: We actually had Bori Shore, an equity analyst from Columbia 529 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 5: Thread Needles, speaking to us earlier when it comes to 530 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 5: the retail consumer landscape. But when I think about these 531 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 5: tenative deal when it comes to something like this, especially 532 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 5: retailers like Walmart, Target that are starting to land this 533 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 5: different type of merchandise for the critical back to school 534 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 5: seasons as well as Paul was talking about obviously holidays 535 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 5: coming up. When it comes to me acturers and automakers 536 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 5: and food producers, what do you think this deal would 537 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 5: actually mean when it comes to exporting those types of 538 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 5: goods who rely on those Pacific ports. 539 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,959 Speaker 7: Well, Jess, this is where the work really begins, and 540 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 7: we're so thankful again to the Acting Secretary Julie Sue, 541 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 7: Jim McKenna, the PMA, Willie Adams International President of the 542 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 7: ISLW for really going all out this week to get 543 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 7: it done. Julie was on the ground for seventy two 544 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 7: hours along with her staff, working around the clock trying 545 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 7: to bring the two sides together, which was successful. What 546 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 7: it means now is that I'm out on the road 547 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 7: and I'm going to be crisscrossing the country talking to 548 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 7: people like Jay Timmins at the Manufacturing Association, John Gold 549 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 7: and Matt Shay at the National Retail Federation along with 550 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 7: the importers and exporters to make sure that they understand 551 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 7: what the ground truth is out here and how much 552 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 7: we want their cargo back. You know, what's interesting is 553 00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 7: that for every five forty foot containers we moved through 554 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 7: this port, we create a new job. And that's where 555 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 7: it all begins, trying to help the American economy, getting 556 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,720 Speaker 7: people to come to work every day, put food on 557 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 7: the table, put their kids through school. This is really 558 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 7: the American economy at its finest right now, and I've 559 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 7: got a big job ahead of me. It's a tall 560 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 7: mountain to climb. But we need industry to come along 561 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,720 Speaker 7: with us, and I think the AG conference was a 562 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 7: great start to that this week. 563 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: So Gene, just give us about forty five seconds kind 564 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: of where the Port of Los Angeles is now relative 565 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 1: to its competition, and kind of where what you're looking 566 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: to do going forward. 567 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 6: Paul. 568 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 7: We're running at about seventy percent of capacity right now. 569 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 7: Half of that thirty percent that's open is cargo that 570 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 7: shifted to the East and Gulf Coast because folks were 571 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 7: quite concerned about what was going to happen in this negotiation. 572 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 7: The other half or fifteen percentage points are really economic related. 573 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 7: It's still high inventories of retailers, manufacturers, and others, but 574 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 7: I'm starting to see the cargo coming across. We've got 575 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 7: fifty eight ships traversing the Pacific right now. That's a 576 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 7: good number and the highest it's been in sometime. We're 577 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 7: going to get on a better cadence of calendar items 578 00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 7: back to school, fall, fashion, year end holidays starting here 579 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 7: in the month of June. I like our chances for 580 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 7: a good second half of the year. 581 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 1: All right, Geen, as always, thanks so much for taking 582 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: a few minutes and bringing us up to dat on 583 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 1: what's happening in the all important supply chain. 584 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 8: You're listening to the tape Can's our live program Bloomberg 585 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 8: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 586 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 8: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 587 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,959 Speaker 8: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 588 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 8: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 589 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 1: You know, Jess. In my time at Bloomberg, I've been 590 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,600 Speaker 1: able to see many, many Bloomberg offices all around the world. 591 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: You have, everyone is more awesome than the next. And 592 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 1: we're sitting here at Bloomberg Global HQ, here at Midton Manhattan. 593 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 1: It is an extraordinary office base. Yet there's like nobody here. 594 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: And then I remember, oh, it's a Friday. 595 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 5: Summer Friday, summer Friday, just new Friday. 596 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, so go figure. So that brings up the big, 597 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 1: bigger issue of getting folks back to work. Where do 598 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 1: we go? I don't know, we're in here every day 599 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 1: because we're on air, but a lot of folks have 600 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 1: this flexible thing worked out to a to a t. 601 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: So the question is where do we go from here? 602 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 1: In a lot of I think boardrooms and c suites 603 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 1: are trying to get a sense of that as well. 604 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: Our next guest is going to help us think about that. 605 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 1: Erica Keswin. She's an author and workplace strategists and she 606 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 1: thinks about this stuff a lot, and she joins us 607 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So, Eric, it 608 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 1: seems like, as a result of the pandemic flex work, 609 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 1: working three days a week, that seems to be the 610 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 1: new norm. How do you think about it? 611 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,080 Speaker 11: Well, great to be here. I think about it a lot. 612 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 11: Kind of keeps me up at night. You know, when 613 00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 11: you look at the data, you know seventy percent, seventeen 614 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 11: percent of people want to be fully remote all the time. 615 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 11: I think nineteen percent of the people say they want 616 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 11: to be in the office all the time, and now 617 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 11: that leaves most of the people in the middle. And 618 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 11: so what I'm seeing is we are moving to that 619 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 11: three day a week seems to be the norm, but 620 00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 11: i am I've spoken to a number of CEOs this 621 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 11: week that are that are starting to make a shift, 622 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 11: and they're making it in a couple of ways. Many 623 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 11: of them have been saying, you know what, you can 624 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 11: come in two or three days a week and pick 625 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 11: whatever days you want. I think those days are few 626 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 11: and far between because what's happening is people come in 627 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 11: and you're missing each other. There's no energy, and so 628 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 11: you're not really getting the bank for the buck of 629 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 11: bringing people in. So I'm seeing a shift too. Let's 630 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 11: do three days, two days, four days, whatever it is, 631 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 11: but these are the days because what you want to 632 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 11: do is to create connection and energy. I mean, I'm 633 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 11: here in the Bloomberg offices. There are people and there 634 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 11: are energy, and so that is a big shift that 635 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 11: I'm seeing. 636 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 5: And here in the office, I have to point out 637 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 5: New York City office occupancy breaking fifty percent for the 638 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 5: first time since the pandemic. How do we get here? 639 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 11: You know, I think people are realizing that there's been 640 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 11: this slow erosion of the cold sure of their organization. 641 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 11: And it's not to say that remote and hybrid companies 642 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 11: don't have cultures, because they do. 643 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 5: But it's hard. 644 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,360 Speaker 11: And so if you decide that you're going to be 645 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,759 Speaker 11: not in the office, you've got to put resources and 646 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,760 Speaker 11: energy around building a culture in a remote or hybrid way. 647 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 11: It's doable, but you have to put a lot of 648 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 11: energy success. 649 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: Have you seen any success stories there? 650 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 9: Yes? 651 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: What's working? What's not working? 652 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,480 Speaker 11: So I talk a lot about designing a day in 653 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:31,439 Speaker 11: the office that's worth the commute, and what you don't want. Again, 654 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 11: we're in New York City, so we have people coming 655 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 11: into New York City from Connecticut, from Westchester, from Montclair, 656 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 11: New Jersey. Right, they're coming in. What we don't want 657 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 11: and then I'll tell you the success stories and what 658 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 11: we do want. But what we don't want is people 659 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 11: coming in and no one from their team is there, 660 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 11: and they're on zoom all day and they're not seeing anybody, 661 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 11: and that it creates what I call the recipe for resentment. 662 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 11: They are mad because they've commuted an hour and a 663 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 11: half from wherever it is they live. So Instead, we 664 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 11: need to design days in the office or even moments 665 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 11: that matter for people where they do feel connection. So 666 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,240 Speaker 11: what do those look like? Some companies build it around 667 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,720 Speaker 11: learning and development. If we don't help our people grow 668 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,880 Speaker 11: and develop, I describe it as up, down and sideways, 669 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,319 Speaker 11: they're going to quit. So you bring people together, have 670 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 11: a speaker, a lunche and learn, bring people together to 671 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,880 Speaker 11: learn something. Other companies, you know, they align it with 672 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 11: their values. Some of them might do service work. Let's 673 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,959 Speaker 11: have every you know, the first Wednesday of the month 674 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 11: when our people come in, maybe Wednesdays our big day 675 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 11: when everybody commutes in, and we're going to have an 676 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 11: opportunity to give back to our local community. Maybe it's 677 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 11: when managers do their one on ones. Maybe it's when 678 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,720 Speaker 11: there's a big strategy meeting. And so it doesn't necessarily 679 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 11: matter what it is, but it needs to be intentional 680 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,120 Speaker 11: because also what I say, and it's a little cheesy, 681 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 11: but bear with me, it's left to our own devices. 682 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:53,280 Speaker 11: We're not connecting. 683 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: That's right, And I think where are we in this 684 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 1: kind of this whole there's almost a generation, not a generation, 685 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,839 Speaker 1: but certainly three or four years of young workers and 686 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: my oldest twins are part of that crew. They've never 687 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 1: had that. They've always kind of been remote, and so 688 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 1: they don't have that cultural bias that, oh this is unusual. 689 00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,479 Speaker 1: They're default is why am I coming into the office, 690 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,080 Speaker 1: as opposed to the fault is why are you're working 691 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:19,480 Speaker 1: at home? 692 00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 11: Well, and there is a big generational thing going on. 693 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 11: I too have twins. 694 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: My post are twenty. 695 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 11: But one of the you know, people are living longer 696 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,800 Speaker 11: and they're working longer. So in many companies we have 697 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:34,239 Speaker 11: five generations of people working under the same roof, and 698 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 11: the older people are now starting to realize, wow, these 699 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,440 Speaker 11: younger gen z, they don't want to be me right. 700 00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 11: You know, it used to be you'd go to a 701 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,799 Speaker 11: law firm or an investment bank and everybody did. Their 702 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 11: goal was to become the partner. So things really are shifting. 703 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 11: The other thing that we're seeing is that some of 704 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 11: the you know, the gen z, the younger generation, are 705 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,279 Speaker 11: missing some of those soft skills. They don't even know 706 00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 11: how to use the phone. And so it's the bridging 707 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:04,480 Speaker 11: these generations together, understanding where people are and trying to 708 00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 11: meet them where they are and bring, you know, bring 709 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 11: together the boat all the most positive sides of each generation. 710 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 5: When it comes to these occupancy rates, how does this 711 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 5: vary across different industries? 712 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 11: You know, like you said, you guys have to be 713 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,799 Speaker 11: in the office, right, so you're here. You know, there 714 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 11: are huge percentages of people never went home in the pandemic, 715 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,399 Speaker 11: and all these conversations that we're having about everybody being 716 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:29,799 Speaker 11: at home. 717 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:31,399 Speaker 9: It's the knowledge. 718 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 11: Workers and so, not the hospitals, not the restaurants. And 719 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 11: so when we think across industries, some people are like, 720 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,279 Speaker 11: what are you talking about? We never we never went home. 721 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 11: So all of these conversations around, you know, the occupancy 722 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,000 Speaker 11: rates really are around, you know, the workers that don't 723 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,279 Speaker 11: technically have to be there, which is why we want 724 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 11: to design time in the office that that is worth it, 725 00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 11: and to think about the why and not just say 726 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 11: not you know, let's do three days or four days 727 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 11: just because generationally it's what we've always done. Let's think 728 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 11: about the why when we do come together, what are 729 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 11: we going to be doing and why is it better 730 00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,200 Speaker 11: for us to do these five things in person? 731 00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 1: You know, I've seen a lot of I guess survey 732 00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,320 Speaker 1: work that says, you know, and this is in London, 733 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,680 Speaker 1: New York everywhere saying if my company makes me come 734 00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 1: in five days, I will definitely think about leaving and 735 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:27,480 Speaker 1: getting a different job. Now, I wonder when the economy, 736 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,080 Speaker 1: if the economy slows, when the economy slows, when the 737 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,360 Speaker 1: unemployment rate is no longer three point seven percent, it 738 00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 1: gets up to four four and a half five percent, 739 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 1: are do companies think that then maybe they'll have a 740 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: little bit of leverage. 741 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:47,080 Speaker 11: They do, but I would disagree, because your top talent 742 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 11: that you want to keep, they have options. You know, 743 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,880 Speaker 11: even with the economy slowing, even with all the tech layoffs, 744 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 11: what we're seeing is these people leave and they do 745 00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:00,200 Speaker 11: have another job pretty soon right after. My opinion on 746 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,000 Speaker 11: this is that if you are, if you're a Goldman Saxe, 747 00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,319 Speaker 11: if you're some of these companies that are paying at 748 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,960 Speaker 11: a certain percentile, and and people want to work there 749 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,800 Speaker 11: because of the cachet of working there and the experience 750 00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 11: of working at you know, some of certain companies, some 751 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,560 Speaker 11: of the top law firms, you know, the banks, they're 752 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,759 Speaker 11: gonna they're gonna come in five days a week, they are, 753 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 11: and then they're gonna do it until they're and then 754 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 11: they're going to leave. But a CEO said to me 755 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 11: this week, you know, party's over. In those words, he said, 756 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,239 Speaker 11: the party's over. We are bringing our people back, and 757 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,320 Speaker 11: I said, you know, let's kind of see what happened. 758 00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 11: He's doing four and one, so four days in, one 759 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 11: day out. And they're not those kinds of banks and 760 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 11: law firms that are going to be able to justify, 761 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 11: in my opinion, doing it, because I think the minute people, 762 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 11: the good people get another job, they're going to be out. 763 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 5: How great is the scope of the danger of trying 764 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,279 Speaker 5: to advance your career if you aren't coming into the office, 765 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 5: and especially the Paul's point when he's talking about the 766 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,640 Speaker 5: younger generation that's just coming out of college and might 767 00:39:58,719 --> 00:39:59,960 Speaker 5: not be in office every single day. 768 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,040 Speaker 11: So I'm a big believer of coming into the office, 769 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,959 Speaker 11: not coming in for the you know, just the sake 770 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 11: of being in the office. If you are listening to 771 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 11: this and you're a leader and you're asking your young 772 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,239 Speaker 11: people to come in, you need to make sure some 773 00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,879 Speaker 11: of the older people, some of the more experienced people 774 00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,399 Speaker 11: are there, because what's the point. I mean, yes, they'll 775 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,719 Speaker 11: meet the other interns, they'll meet the other young people, 776 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 11: and there's a real benefit to that. You know, most 777 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,759 Speaker 11: people meet the most important people in their lives at work. 778 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 11: I mean it's where, you know, the way it's always been. 779 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:30,880 Speaker 5: It is shifting. 780 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 11: But if the more senior people aren't there to help 781 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,360 Speaker 11: them develop, and just don't assume because we all happen 782 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,279 Speaker 11: to be under the same roof that the young people 783 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:42,640 Speaker 11: are going to be mentored. I do worry that proximity 784 00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:46,040 Speaker 11: bias is real, and so flexibility. I think a lot 785 00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,320 Speaker 11: about that for the young people. I don't think that 786 00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,240 Speaker 11: they're all going to get picked for the best assignments 787 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,640 Speaker 11: if they're never showing up. And I also worry about 788 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 11: it for women that if you have, you know, a 789 00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 11: husband and a wife, and the husband's like, all right, 790 00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:00,360 Speaker 11: I have flexible work, but I'm I'm going to go 791 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 11: in and the women aren't. I think it's going to 792 00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 11: take women twenty steps back. 793 00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:06,920 Speaker 1: Erica, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. 794 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:11,040 Speaker 1: Erica Keswin, author and workplace strategist, author of Bring Your 795 00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,640 Speaker 1: Human to Work, Tensurefiaways to design a workplace that's good 796 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,080 Speaker 1: for people, great for business, and just make change the world. 797 00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can 798 00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,320 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 799 00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 800 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,279 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 801 00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,120 Speaker 1: And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 802 00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,920 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 803 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:37,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio