Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number four thirty six of the Marine
Speaker 1: Layer Podcast. It's a mailbag episode, so we'll open it
Speaker 1: up and answer your best listener questions. Will also react
Speaker 1: to the Mariners losing two of three to the Dodgers.
Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys, just before we start this episode,
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Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this
Speaker 1: episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just
Speaker 1: Baseball podcast Network, recording here on Thursday evening, July thirtieth.
Speaker 1: While the season's over.
Speaker 2: We're way overdue for one. And honestly, I don't like
Speaker 2: your delivery on that. That was pretty blam. That was flat.
Speaker 2: I thought you were gonna bring it in and say,
Speaker 2: like recording here on Thursday evening, July thirtieth, and the
Speaker 2: season's over.
Speaker 1: I was just blunting to the point, do the people
Speaker 1: need me to dress up the fact that the Mariners
Speaker 1: season does in fact seem trending towards over.
Speaker 2: I mean like, I don't know what we have to
Speaker 2: keep continuing to say. I don't know what we can
Speaker 2: keep continuing to say until something changes. I think that's
Speaker 2: the over overarching storyline here is they have got to
Speaker 2: shake something up. Man. Through four months, it is clear
Speaker 2: as day that this is not working. None of it
Speaker 2: is working. Brian Wu is uncompetitive in every road start,
Speaker 2: offense is bad, Cal's still not hitting, Naylor's still not hitting.
Speaker 2: Julio had hit his hot streak and he's still hovering
Speaker 2: around a barely above league average hitter. Like, I don't
Speaker 2: know what we have to keep saying, Like.
Speaker 1: The last wrote, sorry, no Eten finished well, And I.
Speaker 2: Was just gonna say, And obviously that Dodger series was
Speaker 2: as about as predictable as you can get. Credit to
Speaker 2: them for winning the one game, but I've said it
Speaker 2: a couple times now. This week they had to play
Speaker 2: their one hundredth percentile outcome game as an offense to
Speaker 2: win by ninety feet in one game against the best
Speaker 2: team in baseball, in a game that almost was blown,
Speaker 2: and again in a game that the Dodgers very easily
Speaker 2: could have won. It took the absolute maximum effort out
Speaker 2: of the Mariners offense to win that game, and then
Speaker 2: the next two they were uncompetitive, so pretty predictable.
Speaker 1: Adam Jude wrote a great story postgame here on Thursday
Speaker 1: and highlighted it in his lead that the Mariners were
Speaker 1: eight outs away from playing this Dodgers team in that stadium.
Speaker 1: And to think of how much has changed in eight
Speaker 1: months between these two franch is that were eight outs
Speaker 1: for matching up in the World Series, and then watching
Speaker 1: what we watched this week, just two different leagues of baseball.
Speaker 1: Team Like we said this going into the series, and
Speaker 1: we'll say it again. The Dodger said Kyle Tucker batting
Speaker 1: seventh and taoscar Hernandez batting eighth, that that's just a
Speaker 1: different league of baseball roster. The Mariners, on the other side,
Speaker 1: had those two spots reserved for Rob Refsnyder, Slash, Luke
Speaker 1: Rayley and Weston Wilson. Massive difference TA Oscar Hernandez hit
Speaker 1: clean up for the Mariners.
Speaker 2: Are we in the trust tree here? We usually are
Speaker 2: gonna I'm gonna get vulnerable for a second here on
Speaker 2: the pod. I'm mad enough to admit this to our fans.
Speaker 2: I was rooting for Kyle Tucker to homer against the
Speaker 2: Mariners in this series. It didn't happen, but I was
Speaker 2: rooting for it.
Speaker 1: But as our Dodger friends call him, Kyle Sucker didn't
Speaker 1: really do that much.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Dodger fans have not been fans of my
Speaker 2: guy through the first year of the contract. It has
Speaker 2: been a tough go. I would still take it on
Speaker 2: the Mariners in a heartbeat.
Speaker 1: But oh, it's just what the Mariner's kneed. Dog another
Speaker 1: underperforming left handed hitter making too much money.
Speaker 2: I want them, I still want them. Okay. I was
Speaker 2: rooting for him to homer against the Mariners anyway, Yes,
Speaker 2: that is what I said on Tuesday night, even when
Speaker 2: the Mariners won. And look, I get it. We never
Speaker 2: tell people how to fan. We say that all the time.
Speaker 2: People were excited and they were fired up after the
Speaker 2: Mariners beat the Dodgers on Tuesday, and they were calling
Speaker 2: it the win of the year, and maybe it was,
Speaker 2: and they were obviously hoping it was gonna spark something.
Speaker 2: I'm sitting there and saying, my biggest takeaway from that
Speaker 2: game is, look at how much effort it took the
Speaker 2: Mariners to win that one game and doing so barely,
Speaker 2: like by the skin of their teeth. These two teams
Speaker 2: are not even in the same stratosphere in terms of talent.
Speaker 2: They like, they don't even line up, they don't compare.
Speaker 2: So for the two teams that had the highest World
Speaker 2: Series odds in Baseball going into the season, it's just
Speaker 2: night and day. Man, that wasn't the Dodgers' best game
Speaker 2: of the year. That wasn't even the best Dodgers team
Speaker 2: you could put out there. They didn't have Will Smith,
Speaker 2: the Mariners didn't have to face Yamamoto in this series.
Speaker 2: Blake Snell and Tyler Glass now are still hurt, and
Speaker 2: the Mariners just barely hung on to win that game
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, and then Wednesday and Thursday they're uncompetitive and
Speaker 2: even without show Hey on Thursday, they basically got run
Speaker 2: out of the building. It's just not even the same
Speaker 2: stratosphere of talent.
Speaker 1: And what we said after the two wins on this
Speaker 1: Mariners road chap where we wanted to see something else
Speaker 1: after that, to show that it's not a total one off,
Speaker 1: And the Mariners just proved us right so much that
Speaker 1: right after they had these huge swings, which when I
Speaker 1: say they had these huge swings, dom Kinzone won the
Speaker 1: Mariners two games on this road trip. Dom Canzone's the
Speaker 1: reason the Mariners aren't heading back to Seattle in a
Speaker 1: true five alarm fun as bad as you think it is,
Speaker 1: if they had gotten swept in Texas and swept in
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, there would be like a like a five
Speaker 1: legit five alarm fire heading back to Seattle. Right now,
Speaker 1: dom Canzone made sure that didn't really happen. We wanted
Speaker 1: to see after those games. Okay, can you show like
Speaker 1: something right after this, like make this translate from one
Speaker 1: game to the next. And the Mariners in each of
Speaker 1: the two games following those wins put out the most
Speaker 1: lifeless offensive performances you could possibly think of, and then
Speaker 1: they end up losing those games, and they end up
Speaker 1: losing five of the seven games on this road trip.
Speaker 1: You also mention this in your reaction to the Mariners
Speaker 1: are no longer flip flopping series. They're just straight up
Speaker 1: now losing a bunch of series. Five out of the
Speaker 1: last six series they've lost.
Speaker 2: It's not competitive. It's no longer the conversation of just
Speaker 2: hovering around five hundred of win the series, lose the
Speaker 2: next win a series, lose the next. Maybe they win
Speaker 2: two series and they lose two series. No, they've lost
Speaker 2: the series two, the Marlins, the Rays, they beat the
Speaker 2: Giants barely, barely, thank you, Cole Young, lost to the Reds,
Speaker 2: lost to the Rangers. Now lost to the Dodgers, and
Speaker 2: you know what's coming in August in terms of their schedule.
Speaker 2: How in the world do they dig themselves out of.
Speaker 1: This drastic change? But is that drastic change gonna come?
Speaker 1: I don't know as of right now, I don't think so.
Speaker 1: There's no trade that's gonna make a drastic change. Like
Speaker 1: the drastic change is either gonna come via subtraction from
Speaker 1: something on the major league roster, something in this organization,
Speaker 1: or it's gonna be drastic change with the players turning
Speaker 1: it around. But neither of those things have been given
Speaker 1: any indication that that's actually gonna happen. So I don't know,
Speaker 1: an I have no clue. Here's a fun fact. Do
Speaker 1: you want to guess the last road series the Mariners
Speaker 1: want person perspective?
Speaker 2: Okay, I can do this. The last road series the
Speaker 2: Mariners won. I mean, they obviously lost the two series
Speaker 2: in Florida. They've lost the two series on this road trip.
Speaker 2: I'm going all the way back to the start of
Speaker 2: the month. They beat the Blue Jays in a series
Speaker 2: that was at home. Before that, they were where Anaheim maybe.
Speaker 1: No way farther back.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Okay, why don't you just tell me.
Speaker 1: That A's series that started the eight game win streak
Speaker 1: was the last road series they won. No, no, it
Speaker 1: was no, yeah, that's that was the last one. They
Speaker 1: swept the Ace the first three wins of an eight
Speaker 1: game win streak. That was the last time they beat
Speaker 1: a team in a series on the road. They have
Speaker 1: one split in that stretch. Besides that, they've lost every
Speaker 1: single series.
Speaker 2: That just can't be real. I mean, brother, that was
Speaker 2: like mid to late May.
Speaker 1: That was two months ago, over two months ago.
Speaker 2: Now, good lord, I'm looking at it right now. I mean,
Speaker 2: you're a right, yeah. How is that possible?
Speaker 1: Because the Mariners over that two month stretch have the
Speaker 1: worst offense in baseball, and this rotation is pitched significantly
Speaker 1: worse on the road.
Speaker 2: Oh oh wait, No, I was about to say you
Speaker 2: were wrong. No, I was gonna say they won the
Speaker 2: Oriole Series. No, they split it, You're right, split it.
Speaker 1: Nope.
Speaker 2: Anyways, keep going, they had a chance to win that series. No,
Speaker 2: keep going, nope.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the rotation has been terrible on the road.
Speaker 1: It's not even bad they've been They've been terrible on
Speaker 1: the road.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Oh man, And we should be sitting here four
Speaker 2: days ahead of the trade deadline just talking about how
Speaker 2: do you take this team over the top, how do
Speaker 2: you go from good to great? How do you make
Speaker 2: yourselves even more of a World Series contender? Instead? Right now,
Speaker 2: I don't have any clue what they're gonna do. And
Speaker 2: that's not just the market being bad, but it's how
Speaker 2: much does this team truly go off? I know Adam
Speaker 2: Jude on Wednesday with Us said they're gonna try to
Speaker 2: be all in. And if you haven't listened to Wednesday's
Speaker 2: episode with Adam you should. It's a really good episode
Speaker 2: and he provides some great insight as always. But I
Speaker 2: don't know, man, I just can't sit here and see
Speaker 2: them being ultra aggressive at the deadline for a team
Speaker 2: that's just not showing you much life.
Speaker 1: Lucky for them, though, there's not really gonna be the
Speaker 1: opportunity to be ultra aggressive. Who who qualifies on this
Speaker 1: deadline of being as being ultra aggressive?
Speaker 2: I mean, there's one guy, and he's about to be
Speaker 2: a Dodger. It's Trek Schoole, Arrek Schooble.
Speaker 1: The only team that's gonna trade the packet, that kind
Speaker 1: of package for Terrek School is gonna be the Dodgers
Speaker 1: because everyone else knows they can't re sign him, but
Speaker 1: the Dodgers do so they're like, all right, we'll give
Speaker 1: you good prospects for him, sure, right. The other team,
Speaker 1: the Rays and the Brewers, like sorry, man, like, we
Speaker 1: can't mortgage our future for someone who's gonna be here
Speaker 1: two months. And it would be the same thing with
Speaker 1: the Mariners. They wouldn't.
Speaker 2: They wouldn't, right, No, I mean, is there anything else
Speaker 2: to even say from this series? It's just the same
Speaker 2: old story other than that.
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, there is. There's something that gets brought
Speaker 1: to light at the end of today, where like this
Speaker 1: is such a damning stat of like where the Mariners
Speaker 1: are this season. It kind of makes sense why the
Speaker 1: Mariners are in this spot. There's clearly a number of factors.
Speaker 1: But entering this season, I mean there's a cal Rawley
Speaker 1: was clearly the best player on the Mariners and Brian
Speaker 1: Wu was the Mariner's best pitcher. This year, Brian was
Speaker 1: now fifty seventh out of sixty two qualified starting pitchers
Speaker 1: in e RA. Do I need to say that again?
Speaker 1: Fifty seventh out of sixty two. Cal Rawley by WRC
Speaker 1: plus is currently one hundred and seventy third out of
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy six among players with three hundred
Speaker 1: played appearances by WRC plus. So your best pitch sure
Speaker 1: is fifty seventh out of sixty two. Your best hitter
Speaker 1: is one hundred and seventy third out of one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy six. How is it possible to do anything?
Speaker 1: It's not?
Speaker 2: Again, what have I said or what have we said
Speaker 2: for weeks? Now? If Cal doesn't turn this around, they're
Speaker 2: not going to the playoffs. Now, I mean this hinges
Speaker 2: on him and Julio and Naylor, but certainly Cal and
Speaker 2: if he doesn't turn it around, they're just not going anywhere.
Speaker 2: By the way, this is I should just say shout
Speaker 2: out to our friend Jage for tweeting that out and
Speaker 2: because that's him that dug that out, So I just
Speaker 2: wanted to make sure like we say shout out to
Speaker 2: him for that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just want to say this. I think We've
Speaker 1: reached the point of the season where I'm just waiting
Speaker 1: for the Mariners to prove us wrong, because the collective
Speaker 1: sentiment around the fan bases is that this team is
Speaker 1: going to miss the playoffs now, and this team is
Speaker 1: going to go down as one of the most disappointing,
Speaker 1: if not the most disappointing team in Mariners franchise history.
Speaker 1: I would really really love for them to prove us
Speaker 1: wrong because we just unfortunately have no evidence right now
Speaker 1: to suggest otherwise. You could. You could come to me
Speaker 1: and say, TJ, like sometimes baseball happens, you just turn
Speaker 1: it around. That's totally right, But there's just no evidence
Speaker 1: that that's gonna happen right now. Given the performance we've
Speaker 1: seen from the Mariners. There's no there's little evidence this
Speaker 1: season that Brian wu is gonna drastically turn it around
Speaker 1: on the road enough to be not like the worst
Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball on the road. There's unfortunately not much
Speaker 1: evidence this season that cal Rally's gonna go from being
Speaker 1: one of the worst hitters in baseball to one of
Speaker 1: the best hitters in baseball. Again, there's no evidence that
Speaker 1: Dan Wilson's decision making is going to improve and help
Speaker 1: this team actively win games.
Speaker 2: Now what am I missing here?
Speaker 1: I'm just like, at some point, I just I wish
Speaker 1: they would prove us wrong in some aspect, and I
Speaker 1: just cannot find a way that they're actually gonna do that.
Speaker 1: And it is really frustrating that we have all this
Speaker 1: hype as Mariners fans. We finally we finally get a
Speaker 1: Game seven of the ALCS. We go into this next season,
Speaker 1: we have the second best World Series odds, everything's lined up,
Speaker 1: you bring back Naylor, you have a sixty home run catcher.
Speaker 1: Everything is supposed to be right, and then they just
Speaker 1: shit on it.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 2: It's I mean, dude, it makes you rip your hair out.
Speaker 2: By the way, speaking of Dan Wilson, we'll weave it
Speaker 2: into the mailbag questions because I think it fits in
Speaker 2: with one or two of them. Jeff Passen did not
Speaker 2: hold back when he was talking about Dan Wilson this
Speaker 2: week when he was on with Brocken Salk. I have
Speaker 2: a little bit of the audio. I'll play a little
Speaker 2: small bit of it when it gets weaved into the mailbag.
Speaker 2: But it's just again, same old stories. Man, talk about
Speaker 2: Dan all the time, We talk about the offense all
Speaker 2: the time, We talk about the lack of consistency with
Speaker 2: runners in scoring position all the time. I mean, against
Speaker 2: the issues against lefties all the time. I guess credit
Speaker 2: to them for adding to Robleski a bit, who who
Speaker 2: was an All Star this year on Tuesday. Then they
Speaker 2: turn around against Eric Lawer and do nothing. They have
Speaker 2: one hit against Eric Lawer.
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Just prove us wrong, man, because otherwise people have their mindset,
Speaker 1: the fan base has their mindset that you're going to
Speaker 1: miss the playoffs. Yeah, and you're gonna be disappointing across
Speaker 1: the board, correct, Like that's that's that's just how it
Speaker 1: is right now. And I'm I'm really frustrated. I'm really
Speaker 1: frustrated watching this team. And man, like we said at
Speaker 1: the beginning of this road trip, it's like, can you please,
Speaker 1: can you please? Just knowing where you are that you've
Speaker 1: lost first place, you understand what's in front of you.
Speaker 1: Just show something, right, just show something, And they couldn't
Speaker 1: even do that. It just went exactly how we expect it.
Speaker 1: The only difference is they they won two games. They
Speaker 1: went two and five on the road trip instead of
Speaker 1: going oh and seven, big whoop.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that terrible road trip. It was an awful road trip.
Speaker 2: Just because they won two games doesn't make it any
Speaker 2: some sort of salvageable road trip. It wasn't. And by
Speaker 2: the way, before we get to the mailbag, let me
Speaker 2: get out of this. Let me get out ahead of this.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: The Twins and the Tigers are no world beaters of
Speaker 2: baseball teams. They've been borderline better than the Mariners. The
Speaker 2: Twins have been by record, but neither of these teams
Speaker 2: are world beaters. So let me get out ahead of
Speaker 2: this in advance and say this. If the Mariners go
Speaker 2: four and two in their next six games, I am
Speaker 2: buying it. Like I am buying it. It'll be a start.
Speaker 2: And I'm not very convinced they're going to go four
Speaker 2: and two in their next six games. But going and
Speaker 2: beating those two teams, now, not with everything you got
Speaker 2: coming up on your schedule, you got to go prove
Speaker 2: something against the teams that actually have playoff aspirations and
Speaker 2: like world series aspirations to get me to say, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: this team's really figured something out, winning series at home
Speaker 2: against the Twins and the Times ain't gonna cut it
Speaker 2: for me.
Speaker 1: I'll take it. It's a start, But then we're gonna
Speaker 1: need six more of those.
Speaker 2: Yeah again, Rays, Astros, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs like you
Speaker 2: have all those teams in August. So let me say
Speaker 2: that again. I agree with you that it is a
Speaker 2: start if they go four and two, and again I'm
Speaker 2: not really convinced they will, but if they do, it
Speaker 2: is a mere start. It is not a spark plug.
Speaker 2: It is not a jump start like it is a
Speaker 2: mer like. Okay, now the engine's been very slightly repped up.
Speaker 2: What are you gonna do against all the actual good teams?
Speaker 1: Let me throw this note out here before we get
Speaker 1: into the mailbag. A lot of really good mailbag questions
Speaker 1: highlighting what will be on Monday. So here's the recording
Speaker 1: schedule for this weekend. We are not gonna have an
Speaker 1: episode out Monday morning, unless, of course, there's a trade
Speaker 1: Sunday night in which case there will be an episode
Speaker 1: out Monday morning. Law and I are gonna wait to
Speaker 1: lease our Monday podcast until the afternoon after the deadline,
Speaker 1: So we'll tape as soon as the deadline is over
Speaker 1: and to give our reaction, and then we'll put it
Speaker 1: out right after that. So just if you're driving to
Speaker 1: work on Monday and you don't see a podcast, we're
Speaker 1: still here. We st are still doing the podcast, but
Speaker 1: it just won't be that morning. It will still be
Speaker 1: after the deadline. But if there's a big trade for
Speaker 1: the Mariners, we're gonna be right here and taping just
Speaker 1: for you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll put out a reminder on social media on
Speaker 2: Sunday too about it. But the thought process is there's
Speaker 2: just not much of a point for us to put
Speaker 2: out an episode Monday morning when Monday's obviously and often
Speaker 2: the biggest day of the trade deadline with trades going
Speaker 2: left and right, when the Mariners could make more moves.
Speaker 2: So I think the easiest thing to do is, as
Speaker 2: TJ said, unless there is a very very marquee trade,
Speaker 2: the easiest thing to do here is just record when
Speaker 2: it's all over, put it out late Monday afternoon or
Speaker 2: Monday evening for you guys, and that will be the
Speaker 2: Monday episode, just a few hours delayed so we can
Speaker 2: cap everything.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we got a great mailbag to get to.
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Speaker 1: And a reminder to you guys before we get into
Speaker 1: these mailbag questions, the place to go if you want
Speaker 1: mailbag priority is our Patreon that's patreon dot com slash
Speaker 1: Marine Layer Pod. That mailbag Priority you get access to
Speaker 1: ad free episodes in a monthly video call with Laloni.
Speaker 1: So if that sounds like something that's interesting to you,
Speaker 1: the place to go is patreon dot com slash Marine
Speaker 1: Layer pod. Christian starts us off on Patreon and he asks,
Speaker 1: do both of you guys feel like as of now,
Speaker 1: can Zone deserves a spot in the lineup every single
Speaker 1: day lefties or righty's?
Speaker 2: Absolutely, yes. I don't even think this is a question.
Speaker 2: I know it's still a somewhat small sample for cam
Speaker 2: Zone against lefties, but in that sample he is now
Speaker 2: opsing ten sixty against left handed pitching. He's got four bombs.
Speaker 2: He is absolutely mashing. You saw it against the Dodgers
Speaker 2: here and on Tuesday, you saw it in Texas. You've
Speaker 2: seen it over the weeks. Now, yes, absolutely, he should
Speaker 2: be in there every day.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's not only the best hitter in his
Speaker 1: forty something played appearances against lefties on this Mariners roster.
Speaker 1: Against lefties by far, he has a one ninety eight
Speaker 1: WORC plus and first on this roster Julio's the next
Speaker 1: best at one thirty nine. That's a fifty nine point
Speaker 1: gap between first and second against lefties. You know how
Speaker 1: we all think like Randy Roserain is the guy who's
Speaker 1: like he stays in the lineup every day, he's gonna
Speaker 1: hit lefties. Yeah, Yeah, can Zone by WORC plus is
Speaker 1: ninety eight points in front of Randy this year agains.
Speaker 2: Celebrities ninety eight percent. That's crazy. Now ninety eight percent
Speaker 2: ahead of Randy.
Speaker 1: He's almost twice as good as Randy rose Rain against
Speaker 1: lefties this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, small sample, but he's crushing it. Man. Yes, I
Speaker 2: don't even think this is much of a question that
Speaker 2: he's got to be in there every day at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean again, her will answer this again later in
Speaker 1: this mail bag because someone asked us this. But can
Speaker 1: Zone is inking himself a permanent spawn in this Mariners
Speaker 1: lineup in the future, like going forward, this is your
Speaker 1: DH He's going to be in there every single day,
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, going forward.
Speaker 2: I mean unless this doesn't sustain for whatever reason and
Speaker 2: come next year something changes and drops off, or in
Speaker 2: two years something drops off. Yes, absolutely, he'll be in
Speaker 2: there every day.
Speaker 1: But I mean, going into this season, the thought was,
Speaker 1: all right, I mean, dom Canzone crushes righty fastballs, is
Speaker 1: going to be able to evolve from that and hit
Speaker 1: lefties and righty's and hit break pitches and walk a
Speaker 1: little bit more. And he's done literally all of that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and he's become the best hitter on this team.
Speaker 2: Greed.
Speaker 1: Josh's next on the mail bag. Josh's question is, if
Speaker 1: Dan gets fired, do you think Jerry and Justin should
Speaker 1: go with him?
Speaker 2: No, because I think they ended up buying themselves some
Speaker 2: time with what happened last year and getting all the
Speaker 2: way to Game seven of the ALCS and everything they've
Speaker 2: done with the farm. Look, no front office is perfect.
Speaker 2: They are certainly not perfect. They have mightily, mightily struggled
Speaker 2: for a decade to put together a quality big league
Speaker 2: offense and it's still very clearly a problem this year.
Speaker 2: But between their ability to develop big league pitching and
Speaker 2: their ability to develop a really good farm system and
Speaker 2: again getting all the way to the seventh game of
Speaker 2: the ALCS last year, I don't think they end up
Speaker 2: going with them. Now you can get into who's decision
Speaker 2: it was to hire Dan in the first place, and
Speaker 2: maybe we'll get into that here in a minute, but
Speaker 2: just their overall resume, I don't see them totally cleaning house.
Speaker 1: It would make some fans feel better if if that happened.
Speaker 1: I think some fans at this point want a fresh start,
Speaker 1: and I get the idea, But if you just like
Speaker 1: itemize it, like what Jerry and Justin's job is and
Speaker 1: how well they do at it. It's kind of hard
Speaker 1: to poke holes. Besides the fact they don't have a
Speaker 1: World Series title, a lot of the other processes are
Speaker 1: pretty good sans hiring a manager, uh, developing pictures. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're organizationally pretty great at that young hitters. They've done
Speaker 1: a decent job they now have. They have Julio and Center,
Speaker 1: they have col behind the plate. Both of those guys
Speaker 1: have been extended. Colt said short. I mean, I guess
Speaker 1: the book's still out on him, but Signs are promising
Speaker 1: very highly rated prospect and they handed him one hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars. That means they must be pretty confident in him.
Speaker 1: Cole Young, it's pretty good, right, dom can zone. We
Speaker 1: can now put him in that bucket of a young hitter.
Speaker 1: They've molded into a solid everyday player, if not better
Speaker 1: than solid, So that checks off. I mean, oh, you
Speaker 1: could put JB. Crawford in there too, maybe not always
Speaker 1: with the bat, but he has definitely brought value to
Speaker 1: this team with his on base skills. So yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: so there's the hitters that this group has brought in
Speaker 1: and developed. I feel like the only nitpick. Oh trades
Speaker 1: trades great, They're usually pretty good at trades, drafting, very
Speaker 1: good international signing. Their international signings have been pretty solid
Speaker 1: when they've been in charge. The only thing I can
Speaker 1: poke at them is they stink at bringing in platoon bats.
Speaker 1: They're platoon bats. They're not just bad, they're awful well.
Speaker 2: And the free agent signings haven't gone great so far either,
Speaker 2: between Garb and Naylor, ref Snyder, Pollock, I mean, and
Speaker 2: that ties in with the platoons Pollock and Refsnyder. But
Speaker 2: the free agent signings, yeah, have not been perfect. I mean,
Speaker 2: how do you evaluate the trades they've made for big
Speaker 2: league offense. I mean it's been i'd say hit or
Speaker 2: miss so.
Speaker 1: Ta Oscar right, that was that was a wash probably okay,
Speaker 1: because I mean you gave up the primary piece was
Speaker 1: Eric Swanson, and Swanson had a good year and change
Speaker 1: and then it was out of the big leagues.
Speaker 2: Right and then although that's one good year and one
Speaker 2: bad year when they traded for him.
Speaker 1: M hmm. The one good year was free agency, not
Speaker 1: even a trade.
Speaker 2: Oh true?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Uh, Cole Wong was a disaster.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know there's been some Jesse Winker, but
Speaker 2: then I guess I gets balanced out with Gino, so.
Speaker 1: That part's been hit or mess. But they've had some
Speaker 1: really good trades. Josh Neeler was a good trade. Gino
Speaker 1: was a good trade. Luis Castill was a good trade. Yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure. How are we judging the Edwin Diez trade?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if they were gonna tear down, they
Speaker 2: had to try to get prospects back for a closer.
Speaker 2: You weren't gonna keep Edwin Diaz on a rebuilding team.
Speaker 2: That wouldn't have made any sense. But yeah, like, look,
Speaker 2: they got what looked to be a really hefty return
Speaker 2: for him, and then it just didn't work out with Jared.
Speaker 2: So yeah, look, you can you are more than in
Speaker 2: your right to evaluate in your own opinion on how
Speaker 2: they've done with trades. You can look at it in
Speaker 2: the positive lens. You can look at it in a
Speaker 2: negative lens. I think that's totally fair. But I just
Speaker 2: think what they've done with again farm system, with big
Speaker 2: league pitching, and again the fact they got as far
Speaker 2: as they did last year is probably gonna buy him
Speaker 2: some more time. I wish they'd made the playoffs more
Speaker 2: times than their tenure, that's for sure. But I think
Speaker 2: the other part of Josh's question we should get into
Speaker 2: here a little bit, because he does specify more. He
Speaker 2: said should they go because they made the decision to
Speaker 2: hire him without any managerial experience and with no interview process.
Speaker 2: So we've mentioned this a bit on previous episodes. Will
Speaker 2: men again, we don't have any confirmation on the following,
Speaker 2: But just to tell you guys, what we've heard and
Speaker 2: the things that we've picked up through the echo chambers
Speaker 2: and just through some conversations, is we've heard both stories.
Speaker 2: And this isn't just conversations with random drunk fans in
Speaker 2: the pen. This is like, you know, these are these
Speaker 2: are These are conversations with people that we trust that
Speaker 2: we have heard both stories. We have heard it was
Speaker 2: a Jerry decision, and we have also heard that bringing
Speaker 2: Dan on in the way they did without interviewing anybody
Speaker 2: else was an ownership decision, and they told Jerry this
Speaker 2: is who they had to hire. So I don't know
Speaker 2: which one of those is true. If it truly was
Speaker 2: Jerry on his own and the front office on their own,
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's a terrible process I mean, and
Speaker 2: I mean beyond terrible, and we've seen how that Dan
Speaker 2: Wilson era's gone, but there are still other things that
Speaker 2: balance it out.
Speaker 1: The other thing I can note from this based on
Speaker 1: that specific do you think the mayors cut corners on
Speaker 1: other parts of their process? Like organization? Do they cut corners? Drafting?
Speaker 1: Do they cut corners? Developing? Do they cut corners with
Speaker 1: their No, I guess the free agents kind of, but
Speaker 1: some of their other homegrown players. Do they do that?
Speaker 2: No? Not really. Again, the front office certainly doesn't seem
Speaker 2: to cut corners. The free agency thing is is again
Speaker 2: owners that goes that goes higher than the front office.
Speaker 2: That is the owners deciding to cut corners because again
Speaker 2: they're often pretty cheap and don't like to spend.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, they whoever hired Dan Wilson cut corners hiring
Speaker 1: him so that the results are what the results are
Speaker 1: when you cut corners, is.
Speaker 2: That this feels like a pretty decent time to weave
Speaker 2: in this passing thing, right, because I mean, we're on
Speaker 2: the well, we're on the topic of Dan. I said
Speaker 2: we were gonna mention passing. Wow, so passing was on
Speaker 2: brocken Salt. This week as he usually is doing his
Speaker 2: regular radio hit and let's let me just play you
Speaker 2: a couple seconds or like a few seconds of two
Speaker 2: different clips when he's talking about the state of the
Speaker 2: Mariners and what's gone wrong and why they are where
Speaker 2: they are, and he starts to go into answer this
Speaker 2: is number one, talking about when things go this badly
Speaker 2: and you're at the point you're at. He thought it
Speaker 2: points to something deeper. And then he talks about that
Speaker 2: they need to make a change, and he kind of
Speaker 2: says this here, I'll try to cue it up for
Speaker 2: the right spot, but here, let's let's give it a shot.
Speaker 2: I'll just put my mic up or phone up to
Speaker 2: the mic, change up the.
Speaker 3: Mix in there. And I almost wonder if it's a
Speaker 3: matter of changing up the mix, because I'm not sure
Speaker 3: that they're going to change up the thing that they
Speaker 3: really should, which is the manager.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that's number one where you just heard the
Speaker 2: premiere voice in baseball media essentially say Dan Wilson should
Speaker 2: no longer have a job.
Speaker 1: Correct. They're unwilling to, he said, they're unwilling to make
Speaker 1: the change. They or he's unsure they're going to make
Speaker 1: the change. They actually need to change.
Speaker 2: Which is the manager, which is Jeff Passen saying again,
Speaker 2: Dan Wilson shouldn't be managing anymore, right.
Speaker 1: Which teas up the second one, which is even more damning.
Speaker 2: Right, and why and this is and this is point
Speaker 2: number two. I think it's very simple.
Speaker 3: If Dan Wilson weren't one of the best players in
Speaker 3: franchise history, he would.
Speaker 2: Not be manager anymore. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think it's simple as that. There's politics that are
Speaker 3: going on here.
Speaker 1: Yes, yep.
Speaker 2: Again, you guys know good and well how we feel
Speaker 2: about Dan as a manager, but don't take it from us.
Speaker 2: That is again the premiere voice in baseball media saying
Speaker 2: he doesn't think Dan should have a job anymore. And
Speaker 2: he's also saying that if Dan wasn't in the team
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame, he would have been gone. All right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, here's a note to anybody if in our listening
Speaker 1: audience who eventually wants to to run a baseball team,
Speaker 1: If you you want like a nice, smooth operation with
Speaker 1: no politics, as Jeff Passon says, if you're hiring a manager,
Speaker 1: let's make sure like the manager or the GM or
Speaker 1: the president. Because the giants are running into the situation
Speaker 1: too with Buster Posey. The person can have no association
Speaker 1: with your organization prior no players.
Speaker 2: I mean if they had played one year in the
Speaker 2: organization or something like that where they didn't have true ties. Okay,
Speaker 2: Ryan Sandberg managed the Phillies. It's not like he was
Speaker 2: some Phillies legend. He was obviously a Hall of Famer
Speaker 2: as a Cub. But then manage the Phillies.
Speaker 1: You get what I'm saying. No, no ten tenure player
Speaker 1: for X franchise gets to should gets hired to come
Speaker 1: back and run run said franchise, either in the dugout
Speaker 1: or in the front office. As you can see, like
Speaker 1: the two examples we currently have in Major League Baseball,
Speaker 1: it puts teams in really difficult situations, more difficult than
Speaker 1: it should be. Where if Dan Wilson had no associate
Speaker 1: with the Mariners, the Mariners would not have a preconceived
Speaker 1: bias from twenty five years ago to prevent them from
Speaker 1: making decision that could potentially make them better this year.
Speaker 2: Correct. And by the way, let me just add one
Speaker 2: more note to what pass And said before we get
Speaker 2: to our next question. When Passing talks about stuff like this,
Speaker 2: he's not really ripping off takes. If you listen to
Speaker 2: Jeff talk about what he just said, that does not
Speaker 2: sound like he's ripping off some take. That sounds to
Speaker 2: me like he has got intel and has had conversations
Speaker 2: with people inside that building that also feel that way.
Speaker 2: I can't know that for sure. It's not like we've
Speaker 2: asked Passon about it. It's just what it sounds like
Speaker 2: listening to those answers. And if that's true, if what
Speaker 2: we are saying is true, then that backs up what
Speaker 2: TJ and I have been saying for months, which is
Speaker 2: we think this front office, despite some of the flaws
Speaker 2: it has, are just too smart a baseball people to
Speaker 2: be watching what's going down day by day, game by game,
Speaker 2: especially when trying to make decisions and saying, yeah, we
Speaker 2: love the way these games are getting managed. They can't
Speaker 2: say it publicly, but there's just no way, there's just
Speaker 2: no way that their philosophy lines up with what is
Speaker 2: going down on that field on a day to day basis.
Speaker 1: I can't say I'm that surprised, can't.
Speaker 2: No, No, we can't say that for sure. Again, like
Speaker 2: we're not us believing that isn't like it's not sourced
Speaker 2: but it's sure as hell feels that way, and it's
Speaker 2: sure as hell sounds that way. Listen in to pass
Speaker 2: and talk about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, before we get to our next mailbag question, Lole,
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Speaker 1: on Patreon asks, can you compare what the actual packages
Speaker 1: might be for Kirby versus Hancock in your opinion?
Speaker 2: Man, it's hard. I mean, let me turn this back
Speaker 2: to you. First, do you think these guys have similar
Speaker 2: to equal value? Because Kirby is the better pitcher with
Speaker 2: two and a half years of control, but Emerson has
Speaker 2: proven to be a really good big league starter this
Speaker 2: year with four and a half years of control.
Speaker 1: That's one hundred percent what I think. I think the
Speaker 1: package is essentially the same. And also consider this, if
Speaker 1: the Mariners are trying to buy this with these moves,
Speaker 1: they're trying to buy and make themselves better. There's a
Speaker 1: cap that a team is gonna is gonna set when
Speaker 1: they're trading players that the Mariners deem by worthy. Because
Speaker 1: if you're buying, you're trading for big leaguers and most
Speaker 1: likely the team you're trading with needs a starting pitcher
Speaker 1: so they can compete in the playoffs. So how much
Speaker 1: are you really gonna get back? Right?
Speaker 2: I mean, it's impossible to put together an exact package
Speaker 2: for you because you got to pick the team. You
Speaker 2: gotta go through the player, you gotta go through the prospects,
Speaker 2: and there's so many different options if you want a
Speaker 2: general return and what it could look like, it feels
Speaker 2: like it would be one can controllable big league player
Speaker 2: and then one solid prospect to good prospect.
Speaker 1: Mm hmm. Yeah, it can be like the Connolly Early
Speaker 1: for Curtis Mead trade. Well, that was straight up so yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that was a straight up trade. Every team
Speaker 1: trades and values differently, but that's a pretty solid, a
Speaker 1: pretty solid framework that the Nationals and Red Sox laid
Speaker 1: out for the Mariners if they're going to trade one
Speaker 1: of these guys. Emerson doesn't have as much control as
Speaker 1: Connolly Early, but he's also more proven in the big leagues.
Speaker 1: He's pitched for longer, and on the other side, Curtis
Speaker 1: Mead might be better than any better and younger than
Speaker 1: any player the Mariners could get back in a trade.
Speaker 1: Curtis Mead has had a really good year of fortunate
Speaker 1: he's hurt now, broke his wrist. That's a bummer, really
Speaker 1: bad luck. But he's like a thirty percent over league
Speaker 1: average as a hitter this year, and that's a one
Speaker 1: for one swap for a big leaguer. The Mariners I
Speaker 1: think at this point would take that in a heartbeat.
Speaker 1: But I don't think that option's out there. I don't
Speaker 1: really think so. So I'm with you. I'm thinking it's
Speaker 1: a it's a solid big league player and it's a prospect.
Speaker 1: But even still, there's where you'd be making too much
Speaker 1: of your trying to find a difference in value between
Speaker 1: those two guys.
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, I agreed in.
Speaker 1: The middle of the season especially that adds so much.
Speaker 1: Off season trades are much different in season trades. I mean,
Speaker 1: everyone's trying to win, right, Yeah. Next question comes from
Speaker 1: I think I'm saying your name your name right? I
Speaker 1: think Jatin, I know we've we've met in person, and
Speaker 1: I forget how to pronounce it, So I apologize. Let
Speaker 1: me know in the comments that I pronounced that correctly.
Speaker 1: His question is what if the Mariner's trade for Lane
Speaker 1: Thomas from the Royals.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess they need a right handed bat,
Speaker 2: but it doesn't feel like a very inspiring trade. They
Speaker 2: could do it, but Lane Thomas is a free agent
Speaker 2: at the end of the year. He is hitting lefties
Speaker 2: pretty well this year, but still for the Sea as
Speaker 2: a whole, he's barely been an above average hitter. He's
Speaker 2: an okay defender at best. At this point. It's just
Speaker 2: like like it would essentially like be replacing Rob Refsnyder
Speaker 2: if you went and got Lane Thomas, that would be
Speaker 2: the role he'd fill. But that's not really putting you
Speaker 2: over the top.
Speaker 1: This is not a move to put you over the top.
Speaker 1: I think if you move on from Victor Roeblists and
Speaker 1: replace it with him with Lane Thomas, I think I'd
Speaker 1: be fine with that.
Speaker 2: Oh, I guess Roboys could be the other option here.
Speaker 2: Is that who Thomas replaces? Again, Sure, but you got
Speaker 2: to do a lot more than that.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's not just him. But if if this
Speaker 1: option is available, I think I would do it.
Speaker 2: Sure.
Speaker 1: I think I think your team would be slightly better
Speaker 1: with that. I think that would be better. You can't
Speaker 1: bet put him in the lineup against righties. He's terrible
Speaker 1: against righty's, but he's been good against lefties this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So you put him out in the corner, in a
Speaker 1: corner outfield spot, I think he'll be better. The Royals
Speaker 1: have played him out in center a ton he's been
Speaker 1: terrible out there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I was gonna say, maybe that's why his
Speaker 2: defense has been so brutal this year. Now, the guy
Speaker 2: has a good arm, he just has not played good defense.
Speaker 1: No, but you put him in a corner outfield spot,
Speaker 1: put him in right field, and he could be your
Speaker 1: guy to be in the lineup against lefties. I do
Speaker 1: think that would be a plus.
Speaker 2: Sure. I mean again, like, it's fine. I'm not saying
Speaker 2: it's a bad move. It's just I don't think that's
Speaker 2: exactly riling up the fan base in a positive way.
Speaker 2: If that makes sense, I think people would say, okay,
Speaker 2: like sure.
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Alex on Patreon. Alex's question is
Speaker 1: During the broadcast to the second game against the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: Dave Valley and Aaron Goldsmith discussed how long it took
Speaker 1: for Edgar Martinez to become an everyday major league player.
Speaker 1: Reminded me a bit of Canzone. What do you think
Speaker 1: are the chances that Canzone becomes the Mariners full time
Speaker 1: DH for the foreseeable future, And what would you say
Speaker 1: is his one hundredth percentile outcome?
Speaker 2: Well, I can't say his one hundred percentile outcome is
Speaker 2: going to be Edgar because that's just not fair to
Speaker 2: say he's going to be a Hall of Fame hitter.
Speaker 2: But one hundred percentile outcome, I mean, the guy makes
Speaker 2: a couple All Star Games as a Mariner over the
Speaker 2: next few seasons, and he's a thirty home run guy
Speaker 2: moving forward, and he puts up similar ops to what
Speaker 2: he's putting up now, or is you know, consistently an
Speaker 2: eight thirty to eight sixty ops guy. Feels like one
Speaker 2: hundred percentile outcome. If you get an eight to fifty
Speaker 2: ops in Dom can Zone for the next three to
Speaker 2: four years and he makes two All Star Games, that's
Speaker 2: a pretty good outcome.
Speaker 1: To answer the first question, yes, I think he will
Speaker 1: be at the Mariner's DH going forward at the very
Speaker 1: least next season, and hard to as long as the
Speaker 1: production remains well above average, he's going to have it
Speaker 1: for seasons going forward. One hundred percentile, I'd just say
Speaker 1: Mariners Hall of Fame with roughly the same offensive output
Speaker 1: as Kyle Seger over his career for one hundred percent
Speaker 1: of Kyle Sieger at two hundred and forty two home runs.
Speaker 1: At Dom's current rate, he'll probably have maybe slightly better
Speaker 1: rate stats than Kyle Seger, but overall, maybe the power
Speaker 1: production will be close to that two forty two mark,
Speaker 1: and that'd be a really really good career for Dom Canzone.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you hit two hundred and fifty big league home runs.
Speaker 2: That's a great career. Not a Hall of Fame career,
Speaker 2: but I don't think anybody's expecting that. It's a really
Speaker 2: good career if he does that. Yeah, he'll get paid
Speaker 2: in free agency if he does that, that's for.
Speaker 1: Sure, definitely, or the Mariners extend him. He could probably
Speaker 1: be an extension candidate, given he's a DH and his age.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they would take him a while to hit free agency.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so he's got what three years?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe he's a free agent after twenty twenty
Speaker 2: nine if I have that right.
Speaker 1: Oh, so he's got three more years.
Speaker 2: Offt Yeah, Yeah, he is a free agent in twenty thirty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so yeah, he's got three years left. So
Speaker 1: the Mariners are in no rush for that, but he's
Speaker 1: definitely an extension candidate, a little shorter extension because he'll
Speaker 1: be thirty one. Thirty two sounds right by the time
Speaker 1: he hits free agency.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Alex on Patreon. Alex's question is
Speaker 1: what gets us Mason Miller and are the Mariners willing
Speaker 1: to pay it at this point?
Speaker 2: I mean, we've talked about this. We said the thing
Speaker 2: that would put it over the top is trading George
Speaker 2: Kirby for him, because I don't know how the Padres
Speaker 2: would get much of a better return package than a
Speaker 2: bona fide big league starting pitcher who's been an All
Speaker 2: Star and throws strikes at the rate that Kirby does.
Speaker 2: But if you want to look to something other than
Speaker 2: just a starting pitcher, because we've talked about that, I mean,
Speaker 2: if you want to know what for sure would land him,
Speaker 2: I mean trading Kate Anderson and Ryan Sloan would land him.
Speaker 2: But the Mariners aren't gonna do that. So, you know,
Speaker 2: trading Felnen, cell us In and somebody else that's high
Speaker 2: up in your prospects doesn't like if you're gonna trade
Speaker 2: Felnin and Las Montes. Could that get you Mason Miller, Probably,
Speaker 2: but the Mariners may not want to do that either.
Speaker 1: For a guarantee, it's gonna have to be George Kirby,
Speaker 1: Ryan Sloan or Kate Anderson. Yeah, everything else comes with
Speaker 1: a little bit of a question given how good Mason
Speaker 1: Miller is. Mason Miller's better now than he was at
Speaker 1: this point last year, like as a trade asset, Like
Speaker 1: Mason Miller was very stuffy and still very very very
Speaker 1: effective with the A's, but he's better now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was agreed.
Speaker 1: I think the profile of Mason Miller is significantly higher
Speaker 1: now and.
Speaker 2: He is he is trending toward Cooper's town.
Speaker 1: With Yeah, I mean he is one of the greatest
Speaker 1: relievers that has ever played Major League baseball. That that's
Speaker 1: pretty certain, and just on a rate basis.
Speaker 2: On a rate basis, I was going to say, the
Speaker 2: counting stats still have a long way to go, but yes,
Speaker 2: for sure.
Speaker 1: But he pitches in Major League baseball for a while,
Speaker 1: then those counting statues will catch up. Next question comes
Speaker 1: from Xander on Patreon. Xander's wondering with the Mariner's home
Speaker 1: run derby coming up, if we were to put all
Speaker 1: the Mariner's content creators in the lineup, who would win?
Speaker 2: Man, So, if you had asked me this a year ago,
Speaker 2: even a few months ago, maybe there's a chance I'd
Speaker 2: pump my own like ego up and say myself, but
Speaker 2: I think it's our buddy Andrew. I think it'd be
Speaker 2: our buddy West Coast Willie, who I'm sure some of
Speaker 2: you guys know that would have the best shot. I mean,
Speaker 2: he played Division one baseball. Now, he was a pitcher,
Speaker 2: but him and I have known each other a long time,
Speaker 2: and like we grew up playing against each other in
Speaker 2: All Stars in Little League, and you know, had a
Speaker 2: bunch of mutual friends all through high school. And like
Speaker 2: he was a really really good high school player as
Speaker 2: a hitter and a pitcher. And I think if you
Speaker 2: were gonna put some content creators out there, he'd probably
Speaker 2: be the best one. I was gonna vote for you.
Speaker 2: Oh you were, Oh that's Yeahue. Well, again, if you
Speaker 2: had asked me a few months ago, I might have
Speaker 2: said me. But again, I didn't play Division one baseball.
Speaker 2: So but you get hit a ball really far, all right,
Speaker 2: So I mean, look like I think I could hold
Speaker 2: my own like, I think I got a shot to like,
Speaker 2: like send some baseball's a long way, but but I
Speaker 2: don't know if I could put myself in the top.
Speaker 1: I mean, you and Andrew hit about the same amount
Speaker 1: with the Division one level.
Speaker 2: I guess that's fair. But he was always a better
Speaker 2: player than I was growing up and through high school,
Speaker 2: which is why I'll put more. I'll put more chips
Speaker 2: in his basket. I mean, if you guys want to
Speaker 2: find out for yourself, If you guys aren't doing anything
Speaker 2: on Saturday, I'll just give a little plug here. TJ
Speaker 2: and I and our buddy Andrew, who's West Coast Willie
Speaker 2: on social media, are all playing in a celebrity softball
Speaker 2: game in Kirkland. It's called the Cats and Dogs Celebrity
Speaker 2: Softball Game. It's it's to help support and honor the
Speaker 2: Junior Softball World Series that takes place in Kirkland every year.
Speaker 2: But it's gonna be in Kirkland at three pm on
Speaker 2: Saturday at Lee Johnson Field, and all three of us
Speaker 2: are playing in the game. We're all on the same team,
Speaker 2: so I don't know. We'll see who shows out in
Speaker 2: that game. Maybe I'll help win or lose some points
Speaker 2: for some people.
Speaker 1: If you want to watch me come swing and miss,
Speaker 1: then that's yeah, show up.
Speaker 2: See you can tell the swing a bat? Can you
Speaker 2: tell the difference in priorities here? I mean TJ is
Speaker 2: sitting here saying, I just hope I don't look absolutely
Speaker 2: stupid and I may be the worst player out. There
Speaker 2: was this message to me earlier in the in the week.
Speaker 2: Yet West Coast Willie and I are sitting here saying,
Speaker 2: can I like connect to hit a ball out of
Speaker 2: Lee Johnson? That is our mindset going into this.
Speaker 1: I will I'll take a ball out of the infield.
Speaker 1: If maybe if I had some time to actually take
Speaker 1: some swings, i'd feel a little bit better about myself.
Speaker 1: But I don't know what I'm enough time to take swings. Oh,
Speaker 1: we're just we're just gonna We're just gonna show up
Speaker 1: on Saturday, Lyle, and we're gonna hope the baseball gods
Speaker 1: are on our side.
Speaker 2: Oh. I actually took some swings here on Thursday night
Speaker 2: tonight when the game got out of hand after Dalton
Speaker 2: Rushing hit the home run. My brother's in town briefly,
Speaker 2: so we went out to uh one of our local
Speaker 2: baseball fields, and I was actually taking some swings, so
Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, okay, give myself a shot to
Speaker 2: try to connect with one on Saturday. Why not?
Speaker 1: If you're leave your prediction down in the comments below.
Speaker 1: Whether or not Wile actually clears the fence at Lee
Speaker 1: Johnson Field, it's it's not likely.
Speaker 2: It's a hard part. Honestly, for those who know the field,
Speaker 2: it favors lefties much more than it does righties. If
Speaker 2: you want to hit one out of there, as a writing,
Speaker 2: you kind of got to hit it right down the line,
Speaker 2: like right down the line. But it'll be fun. I'm
Speaker 2: really looking forward to playing in the game in all seriousness.
Speaker 2: If you want one other name of a Mariner's content creator,
Speaker 2: So we've had it was a while back, but we've
Speaker 2: had our friend Ben Ranieri on the podcast before once
Speaker 2: and he played Division three college baseball, I believe, so
Speaker 2: he'd probably be another one that has a shot.
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Alex on Patreon. Alex's question is
Speaker 1: looking back at your preseason expectations, who's exceeded the more
Speaker 1: Cole Young or dom can Zone.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's interesting. I think both have obviously exceeded,
Speaker 2: But if I have to pick one. I think it's
Speaker 2: got to be Cole Young because I don't think we
Speaker 2: expected Cole Young to play this type of defense after
Speaker 2: what he showed in his rookie year. Because his rookie
Speaker 2: year there was some real bumps in the road with
Speaker 2: his second base defense. Now all of a sudden, you
Speaker 2: turn around and he's been awesome over there. So I
Speaker 2: think we all believe there was a world that can
Speaker 2: Zone could have a good season at the played offensively
Speaker 2: after the spurt that he showed in the second half
Speaker 2: of last year. But to see what Cole Young's done
Speaker 2: on defense after what he displayed in his rookie season,
Speaker 2: paired with the fact that he's actually got a chance
Speaker 2: to be a twenty home run second baseman, I'd say,
Speaker 2: Cole Young, this is tough.
Speaker 1: I kind of lean the other direction here.
Speaker 2: Hold up, maybe I haven't looked in a while. What
Speaker 2: happened to Cole's defense is about where it was. It's
Speaker 2: way down is oas in the eighteenth percentile now.
Speaker 1: Was DRS has stayed about the same sense about.
Speaker 2: May Well, that's good. Honestly, Sometimes defensive run saved is
Speaker 2: a better metric for infielders and OA is the better
Speaker 2: metric for outfielders, So I guess that's a good sign
Speaker 2: if he's If he's still putting up good numbers by drs, the.
Speaker 1: Defense I think is like stabilized a little bit. It hasn't.
Speaker 1: He's not entering like an Andrelton Simmons level of like
Speaker 1: plus thirty drs.
Speaker 2: That's fair. But yeah, he's still been good.
Speaker 1: He's had a very good overall season.
Speaker 2: Young has actually, yeah, so by defensive run saved, he's
Speaker 2: still got twelve of them for the year, which is
Speaker 2: very good.
Speaker 1: Okay, so like well, but he did have like eleven
Speaker 1: of them by May. Sure, yeah, but you know what,
Speaker 1: some further content, but you know what.
Speaker 2: Man by Baseball Reference, he might end the season as
Speaker 2: a legit four win player. And I don't think most
Speaker 2: people had that on their Bengo card for Cole Young
Speaker 2: in year two as a twenty two year old.
Speaker 1: No, but I do remember we weren't totally bought in
Speaker 1: on dom can zone at the start of his season, right,
Speaker 1: And he's far and away been or maybe not far
Speaker 1: and away, but he's been the Mariners' most consistent hitter
Speaker 1: this season, and he has I think really shown us
Speaker 1: what he could do at the plate, Like, listen to
Speaker 1: this consistency. By month, April he had a one forty
Speaker 1: four WRC, plus May he had a one twenty four,
Speaker 1: Junie had a one ninety one, and July he had
Speaker 1: a one twenty one. Yeah, that's way better than what
Speaker 1: I would have thought. There's no valleys, like the difference
Speaker 1: between him and Luke Rayley are staggering when it comes
Speaker 1: to consistency. Yeah, I think I think that shows a
Speaker 1: lot for Dom. I think I'm gonna I think I'm
Speaker 1: gonna lean down with this answer.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make one more one more point for Cole
Speaker 2: because speaking of consistency, I don't think you can talk
Speaker 2: about Cole Young without mentioning this. He's played every game.
Speaker 2: He's been in every game this year. Remember how last
Speaker 2: September he ran out of gas and the Mariners basically
Speaker 2: stopped playing him, and then he wasn't on the postseason roster.
Speaker 2: He's turned that around and he has been so durable
Speaker 2: that he's played every single day. I mean that means something.
Speaker 1: It definitely does. Cameron I Patreon asks, do you guys
Speaker 1: think we will see Michael Arroyo called up? Or when
Speaker 1: will we'll think Michael Royal could be called up.
Speaker 2: I mean, if they don't go get a right handed
Speaker 2: bat at the deadline, don't you feel like it's got
Speaker 2: a chance to be pretty soon. I know you can't
Speaker 2: take everything you see in Tacoma that seriously, because it's
Speaker 2: such a bambox of a league and a hitter's park.
Speaker 2: But Michael Royo is crushing the baseball down in Tacoma
Speaker 2: to the point where it makes you think, yeah, he
Speaker 2: might need a new challenge here soon, even though he
Speaker 2: hasn't played that many games in Triple A. I think
Speaker 2: there's becoming a much, much more real possibility that we're
Speaker 2: gonna see Royal before the end of the season. So
Speaker 2: maybe on September first, maybe when rosters expand.
Speaker 1: I think if they don't trade for a bat at
Speaker 1: the deadline, he's up next week.
Speaker 2: Oh wow, okay, get do you want drastic change? I
Speaker 2: mean it might spark plug something. It's gotta try.
Speaker 1: It's time to start throwing stuff at the wall. If
Speaker 1: they don't, if they can't find a deal they like
Speaker 1: by Monday, yeah, you're starting to throw shit at the wall.
Speaker 1: And you're saying, all right, like clearly, Michael you can
Speaker 1: hit in triple A, so can everyone else. Let's let's
Speaker 1: show you what Let's see what you can do at
Speaker 1: the big league level and hopefully you can help us. Yeah,
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Speaker 1: marine Layer. Ralph on Patreon asks is there any way
Speaker 1: and he said he was looking and he couldn't find one.
Speaker 1: Is there any way to quantify Dan Wilson's impact on
Speaker 1: wins and losses within a season? Is there a number
Speaker 1: out there that shows that kind of impact.
Speaker 2: I don't think so, because there's just not manager war.
Speaker 2: I wish there was. Now, there was a pretty interesting
Speaker 2: data point that a Tiger's analytics Twitter account posted a
Speaker 2: couple months ago or maybe a month ago, showing the
Speaker 2: success rate of endgame decisions by managers and Dan Wilson
Speaker 2: Shocker ranked in the bottom third of the league. It
Speaker 2: was not good. So that's the closest thing we've had
Speaker 2: to something that's quantitative. But I don't think there's anything
Speaker 2: definitive you can find.
Speaker 1: Hmmm, I'm I'm I think the best thing I could
Speaker 1: find is like one run game win loss record, Like
Speaker 1: that's it's close, but even still, Dan doesn't have total
Speaker 1: control of the Mariners performance in one run games, so
Speaker 1: it's it's tough, Like honestly, this is an old school
Speaker 1: eye test and like a yes no? Or was a
Speaker 1: was a bullpen decision? Successful? Like does it? Does that
Speaker 1: check out? That's why a lot of this for managers
Speaker 1: comes down to process over results, Like is is a
Speaker 1: manager's process good? Does he think about the game the
Speaker 1: right way? Is he thinking about his matchups within a
Speaker 1: baseball game and the decision he decisions he's gonna make
Speaker 1: make and how he operates his club? Else? Is the
Speaker 1: process of that good? And the answer to that for
Speaker 1: Dan Wilson is we don't really know what it is
Speaker 1: because he just doesn't say it, doesn't really say what
Speaker 1: it is how he manages his players besides the fact
Speaker 1: he's hands off, and we don't know his process for
Speaker 1: making decisions besides like yeah it worked or didn't?
Speaker 2: Oh no, his process is not good. In fact, I
Speaker 2: say it's bad because while he doesn't explain it, we've
Speaker 2: seen it play out on the field and it blows
Speaker 2: up in their face half the time.
Speaker 1: Well more or less, Yeah it's bad. And we also
Speaker 1: don't know what it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both are true.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So to answer your question, Ralph, no, there's not.
Speaker 1: I think eventually someone will find something something the maybe
Speaker 1: on Baseball Savant will find they'll cook up cook up
Speaker 1: a stat for managers. But as of right now, I
Speaker 1: don't think we have one. Nick on Patreon asks to
Speaker 1: follow up to Ralph's question, saying he wants to piggy
Speaker 1: act on that question, what is a run handicap that
Speaker 1: the Mariners, simply due to Dan's decision making, would have
Speaker 1: in a seven game series? So, for example, the Mariners
Speaker 1: would have a negative two run handicap and a seven
Speaker 1: game series based on dance decisions.
Speaker 2: Well, if it was negative too, they still would have
Speaker 2: lost in Game seven, wouldn't they Because it's a three
Speaker 2: run homer that Springer hit.
Speaker 1: But they were they were up to Blue Jays, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: they ended up up to so it was it would
Speaker 1: have been net even they would have tired. They would
Speaker 1: have gone extras.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: I mean two runs sounds right? Two runs is a
Speaker 1: single Kerry Carpenter home run with a runner on.
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: Sure this is both those, both the big decisions and
Speaker 1: the or I guess the two biggest decisions of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Both were like NET two in some way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they were Okay, two.
Speaker 1: Run sounds right once you get into bigger runs. I mean,
Speaker 1: if it's if your manager is costing you four runs
Speaker 1: in a series, like that's that's really bad. I don't
Speaker 1: even think Dan's cost them four runs in a series.
Speaker 1: I don't think has he.
Speaker 2: I don't think off the top of my head, but
Speaker 2: I won't say yes for sure. Go back to the
Speaker 2: monitor and we check, yeah for sure.
Speaker 1: Okay. Caate on Patreon asks what are your thoughts on
Speaker 1: trading Emerson Hancock to the White Sox for Braden Montgomery?
Speaker 2: So I tweeted this idea out because shout out to
Speaker 2: this question. I mean, honestly, Caden brings a really good
Speaker 2: question to the table. This is the name I had
Speaker 2: not thought about. If I thought about it, I think
Speaker 2: it would have been a good one to bring up
Speaker 2: to Adam Jude. I would be intrigued by the return
Speaker 2: on this because this is the type of player where
Speaker 2: you could stomach trading away one of your starting pitchers.
Speaker 2: Because Braidon Montgomery is not perfect. He hasn't hit for
Speaker 2: a ton of power in the minor leagues. His Savan
Speaker 2: Page is a rookie, is not perfect offensively by any stretch,
Speaker 2: but he is a switch hitting outfielder whose service clock
Speaker 2: just started because this is his first season in the
Speaker 2: big leagues. He is a very good defender. He has
Speaker 2: a strong arm, he's got speed, he's a good athlete.
Speaker 2: He's a former first round pick. This feels like the
Speaker 2: type of guy that could turn into an everyday player
Speaker 2: for you, that has the chance to be a player
Speaker 2: of some impact. So look, I like the idea. I
Speaker 2: don't know if the White Sox would go for this,
Speaker 2: because I think they view Bradon Montgomery as a potential
Speaker 2: All Star outfielder one day, but I would be intrigued.
Speaker 2: I would stomach that return, okay, if that's what they
Speaker 2: got back for a starter.
Speaker 1: I like the idea. So we checked in with our
Speaker 1: friend Elijah Evans, who also works at Just Baseball. He's
Speaker 1: a big White Sox fan covers the White Sox, so
Speaker 1: we pitched this idea to him. He said, unlikely, but
Speaker 1: not impossible, which kind of makes me think, like, how
Speaker 1: much would you have to overpay for Braid Montgomery. So
Speaker 1: his pitch was that the White Sox don't have enough
Speaker 1: depth in their outfield, in their farm system to justify
Speaker 1: trading someone like Braid Montgomery. So I'm like, all right,
Speaker 1: if you have to make it worth it to them,
Speaker 1: like an overpay to make the White Sox clearly say yes,
Speaker 1: it is trading Emerson Hancock and lazarro Montes for Braid Montgomery.
Speaker 1: But I know that's never gonna happen. Why would you
Speaker 1: trade Why would you trade that kind of capital for
Speaker 1: a guy who is still a prospect. I couldn't justify that.
Speaker 1: It would be some teams would think it's an overpay
Speaker 1: if you traded Emerson Hancock straight up for Braiden Montgomery.
Speaker 1: But that's like the best the Mariners could offer. And
Speaker 1: if the White Sox wouldn't say yes to that, then
Speaker 1: I don't know if there was something they would say
Speaker 1: yes to.
Speaker 2: Right again, I think Braid Montgomery had some really nice
Speaker 2: upside and like does he have the chance to be
Speaker 2: an All star outfielder? Yeah, But that also might be
Speaker 2: why the White Sox don't want to give them up.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think they feel like he, you know,
Speaker 2: isn't going to be a guy that strikes out a ton.
Speaker 2: He's already not striking out a ton in the big leagues.
Speaker 2: It's about a twenty percent rate as a rookie, which
Speaker 2: is a pretty good sign. So there are Again, they
Speaker 2: are nice tools to Brad Montgomery's game, and I would
Speaker 2: be pretty happy with that return if that's what they got.
Speaker 2: But it would probably be hard to get the White
Speaker 2: Sox to say yes to giving them away, especially because
Speaker 2: the White Sox farm system isn't loaded with outfielders. I
Speaker 2: think they liked the idea of having Montgomery and Antonachi
Speaker 2: and a couple of those other guys form up their
Speaker 2: outfield for a long time.
Speaker 1: From the trade values we've seen so far at this deadline,
Speaker 1: is Braidon Montgomery more valuable than Curtis Mead? Do you think?
Speaker 2: Current moment?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: But it's more of a long term outlook.
Speaker 1: Right, But the teams factor it in when they're trading
Speaker 1: for a player like that. I mean I would argue, yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean even though Curtis Mead was a prospect for
Speaker 1: the for the for the Rays like he used to
Speaker 1: keep a currently not quite as much, but he still
Speaker 1: netted you a whole pitcher, right, Brad Montgomery's more valuable
Speaker 1: than Curtis meat Is and it's like, Okay, then maybe
Speaker 1: it does lean towards Emerson in a prospect for him,
Speaker 1: But I you know at that point, like, again, you're
Speaker 1: giving up a lot of capital for a guy who
Speaker 1: still is unproven in the big leagues.
Speaker 2: Right, it's a risk.
Speaker 1: It'd certainly be a risk, but maybe the murders have
Speaker 1: to take a risk at this point.
Speaker 2: Right, And again, he could end up hitting for some power.
Speaker 2: He's certainly hit for power in college, Like could Montgomery
Speaker 2: be a twenty twenty guy at some point? Possible, but
Speaker 2: it would be a hard one to pull off. But
Speaker 2: I really like the question, Kad, because I think it's
Speaker 2: a very interesting player that I like and a lot
Speaker 2: of people like. And I don't think a lot of
Speaker 2: people have thrown out that name. So it's a unique
Speaker 2: idea and I'm glad we're having some more names being
Speaker 2: thrown out there that are kind of outside the box
Speaker 2: thinking in a good way.
Speaker 1: David wraps us up on Patreon and asks, how about
Speaker 1: Pete Fairbanks potent being acquired?
Speaker 2: If you had asked me a couple of years ago,
Speaker 2: I would have said, awesome, It's just Pete Fairbanks has
Speaker 2: really really had a tough go of it. It can't
Speaker 2: be your move for a reliever if that's what you're doing, like,
Speaker 2: you got to go get a leverage reliever and him,
Speaker 2: because he is sitting with an era that's approaching seven
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: He could pitch in your Carlos Vargas role. Yeah, for
Speaker 1: Ben Carlos Vargas from coming back onto the roster right again.
Speaker 2: Pete Fairbanks is a big name once upon a time,
Speaker 2: pitching some big games, and he was a leverage reliever
Speaker 2: for the Rays in a lot of those years where
Speaker 2: they were a dominant team. But it I just don't
Speaker 2: think he's the same guy anymore.
Speaker 1: He's still really good against left, uh not left, he's
Speaker 1: against right. He's he's allowing a sub six hundred ops there,
Speaker 1: but against lefties it's like a lost cause over a
Speaker 1: thousand ops. They're destroying him. Almost all of the damage
Speaker 1: done against peer Pete Fairbanks this year is when he
Speaker 1: has to face a left handed hitter. That's not for
Speaker 1: a reliever. I mean, as a reliever, especially a writer reliever,
Speaker 1: you should be able to get both out and if
Speaker 1: you can't, it's it's tough. It's a really tough sell
Speaker 1: to a team to be a reliable guy. But if
Speaker 1: if Pete Fairbanks comes to the Mariners to pitch in
Speaker 1: the sixth inning, like, I'm fine with that, which is
Speaker 1: what he is at this point. He's a sixth thinning
Speaker 1: reliever until proven otherwise.
Speaker 2: But again, is Zra is sitting at like seven this year?
Speaker 1: Do you want him pitching in the sixth I mean,
Speaker 1: I'd rather him than Michael Rucker.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, but if you get Fairbanks, you got to
Speaker 2: go get somebody else too.
Speaker 1: Yes, one hundred percent. No, No, to be Pete Fairbanks
Speaker 1: is in no way your only option.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so we're we're on the same page there now. Well,
Speaker 2: as always, you guys really bring it with the creativity
Speaker 2: of these questions, because as we approach the trade deadline,
Speaker 2: there's a lot to talk about. There's certainly a lot
Speaker 2: to talk about with the team right now, not all
Speaker 2: in the best of ways, But you guys always come
Speaker 2: prepared with questions, and that's what we love. And if
Speaker 2: you guys are out there and we haven't answered a
Speaker 2: question of yours and you want us to answer a
Speaker 2: question of yours, go sign up for our Patreon and
Speaker 2: you get guaranteed mailbag questions answered every single week when
Speaker 2: you send them. With that, that just about wraps up
Speaker 2: this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know
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Speaker 2: marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle As always be
Speaker 2: thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.
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