1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros MLB. This is Fantasy 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: Baseball Draft Court, and court is in session with me, 3 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: Judge Joey, I am here today with the sleeper and 4 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: the bust. I brought them both in on charges that 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about right now, but we 6 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: might save for a later day. Perhaps they will get 7 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 1: thrown out of this court depending on how things go today. 8 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: Justin Mason is here, Paul spor is here, and we 9 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: are going to debate some guys that they are higher 10 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: on and lower on than each other, and it could 11 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: get ugly here in the court room. We have some 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: security ready to go to pull one of them out 13 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: in case somebody starts throwing haymakers all over the place, 14 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: and we just might do that. So this is a 15 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: show you can't miss. And this is why you tune 16 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: in here to Fantasy pros MLB. 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Gentlemen, 36 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: and of course I use that term lucy with the 37 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: two of you. Does it make you upset, justin Mason, 38 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: to see me with hair considering I am one of 39 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: our bald brothers. 40 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how to feel about this right now. 41 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: This is very unsettling, that is for sure. It doesn't 42 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: look right, it feels wrong, and yeah, I don't know 43 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: how to I don't know how to react right now. 44 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: See Spor knows what to do. You kiss the judges ass, 45 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: you get better rolling See right off the bad Spor 46 00:01:58,760 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: is already good. 47 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, sorry, but this is America where we fight 48 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 2: for truth and justice, and the truth of the matter 49 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 2: is that's weird. 50 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 3: Objection. 51 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well you know, objection sustained pastor. All right, 52 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: let's go. I've got my gavel, I've got my wig, 53 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: I've got my robes here what I'm wearing under it 54 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: is my business, not yours. And we're going to talk 55 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: about some players here. The first one is a big 56 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: deal because Nolan McClain is a guy you put some 57 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: pretty hefty draft stock in right now. We will be 58 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: watching him more in the WBC. I believe this evening too, 59 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,359 Speaker 1: unless something's changed it I don't know about. So we 60 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: have Nolan McLain's That first outing in WBC wasn't so hot, 61 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: but it doesn't matter because the guy came up last 62 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,119 Speaker 1: year gave eight tremendous starts. Everybody was super excited about 63 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: Nolan McLain's future this year, but it feels like somebody 64 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: might be a little less excited about Nolan McClain at 65 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: his current adyp So let's start here with Justin Mason. 66 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: Justin Mason, what side of the Nolan McClain argument would 67 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: you like to take here in twenty two, twenty six 68 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: before the court today. 69 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: Your honor. I am pro Nolan McLean. This is a 70 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: young stud I love everything that he does. He has 71 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 2: a completely full arsenal, can throw six pitches, showed great 72 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: command to control last year, a huge strikeout upside. There's 73 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 2: really no reason to be down on Nolan Clean, and 74 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 2: anybody who says otherwise is not just wrong, but isn't 75 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 2: very smart. So I objection you Conclean should be considered 76 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 2: an SP two with SP one upside, Your honor. 77 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: I will hold that objection for a moment here because 78 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: I want to cross examined for a moment Justin Mason. 79 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: Justin Mason, looking at these current projections one hundred and 80 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: forty five strikeouts, three A two e R, a ten 81 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: and nine record, it's not great. He is being drafted 82 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: right at the twenty fourth pitcher overall in the consensus 83 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: rankings at Fantasy Pros, which you can find at fantasypros 84 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: dot com slash rankings. So go check it out, and 85 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: then you look, he's a top one hundred player, just 86 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: barely at ninety five. But I gotta say these projections 87 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: are not great. Why these projections so low on Nolan 88 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: McClain after he was so incredible last year down the 89 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: stretch and before his call up from tripa A. 90 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 2: Here's the thing, you know, you when you're arguing in 91 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 2: the court case, Let's look at the evidence. And the 92 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: evidence is that projections are lower on rookies and younger 93 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 2: players because they don't have the track record MLB track 94 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: record to go back through. I this is why, like 95 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 2: the bat always says like, hey, I'm lower on rookies 96 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 2: or I'm lower on young guys. They don't have this 97 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 2: MLB track record to kind of pull from. So I 98 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 2: wouldn't worry as much about the projections. I think the 99 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 2: projections are missing on McClain. What he does is he 100 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: strikes guys out. He has amazing stuff. All six of 101 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 2: his pitches have a stuff plus greater than one hundred 102 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 2: one hundred being league average. As long as the control 103 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 2: is in check, I have no reason to believe that 104 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 2: Nolan McLean won't turn to a stud this year. 105 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: All right, So we'll sit the defense down now. Actually, 106 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: Mason sitting already because it's a podcast. Nobody really stands 107 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: on podcasts anymore. Paul Sport, you are going to take 108 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: the other side of this one. So let's get your 109 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: take on why perhaps, all right, Nolan mclan is a 110 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: little overrated this year. 111 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 3: That last line was essentially, if he's good, he'll be good. 112 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 3: If his command and controller there, he'll be good. Of 113 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,039 Speaker 3: course that's true, but we did not actually see that 114 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 3: from Nolan McLain in his sample. In fact, that kind 115 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 3: of stood out like a sore thumb. A nine percent 116 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 3: walk rate isn't that sharp, and ninety five percent location 117 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: plus isn't that sharp. And despite that beautiful one seventeen 118 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 3: stuff plus, he does have remarkably nasty stuff. I would 119 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 3: say that he kind of underachieved in the strikeouts, and 120 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 3: that's a little bit concerning. On the one hand, you 121 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 3: could say maybe there's upside there because he only had 122 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,480 Speaker 3: a thirty percent k rate and eleven percent swinging strike rate. 123 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 3: First off, that sort of swinging strike rate doesn't usually 124 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 3: sustain a thirty percent krate, so he needs to get 125 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 3: the extra swing and miss. This is not some sort 126 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 3: of bonus that you're buying of, like, oh, he could 127 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 3: even strike out more. I need Nolan McLain to get 128 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: more swings than miss misses and improve his command. In 129 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 3: his first full year, dude has fewer than fifty innings, 130 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 3: and Joe, you read the conservative fantasy pros ADPs on him. 131 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 3: If you're over at the NFBC putting in that main 132 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: event money, you're paying pick seventy nine for Nolan McClain. 133 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 3: What are we doing here? I do understand that projections 134 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 3: are light on prospects because they don't have a deeper record, 135 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: but they're also a sobering look at what we're doing 136 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 3: here and making sure that we're not chasing too much 137 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 3: my former colleague here, And we'll see how far this goes, 138 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 3: because I'm really disgusted with his behavior in this court today. 139 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 3: If I may say so myself, you're on her. But anyway, 140 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 3: my one time here often often recommends folks not wish 141 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 3: cast and you know what, that's great advice. I just 142 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:54,799 Speaker 3: wish he'd take his own advice. 143 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: The defense, whooh, that's a solid argument. I'm going to 144 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: ask the prosecution to a follow up question here because 145 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: I want to get a little bit more insight you 146 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: look at last year. Of course, I don't think any 147 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 1: of us think that the two six cra is something 148 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: is going to carry over and sustainable. However, when you 149 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: look at the FIP and the x FIP, they're both 150 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: under three. So to Mason's point about wish casting, it's 151 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: it's a small sample size, but over eight starts it 152 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: certainly looked as though Nolan McClain was showing you that 153 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: there is some sustainability in here. How much do you 154 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: think the league will adjust to Nolan McClain too, considering 155 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 1: how incredible when you dig into some of the bigger 156 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: nerd stats of McLain, the ball movement is one of 157 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: the most electric in baseball, right. I mean you can 158 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: see it with your own eyes. So there's a lot 159 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: of that and one thing, but it's always say, you know, 160 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: when a guy has a ball that moves as much 161 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: as Nolan McLain, that is really tough to square up 162 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: consistently and hit. So the fact that the expected ERA 163 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: obviously was a little bit higher, but the FIP and 164 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: the XIP we're still not quite in line with the 165 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: two era, because that's ridiculous, but not far away from 166 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: it either. Do you see no path for Nolan McClain 167 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: to possibly be a. 168 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: Year I see a path. I see a clear path. 169 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 3: The problem is you're already paying full freight for it. 170 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 3: And I'm not necessarily against paying betting on the come 171 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 3: with guys in today's fantasy world. You have to do that. 172 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 3: You're not gonna get a super thick track record on 173 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 3: everyone you get, but fewer than fifty innings of a 174 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 3: good but not completely pristine sample is simply not enough 175 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: for me to pay a top eighty pick. You talk 176 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: about the nastiness of that stuff and how it can 177 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: be difficult to square up. That is absolutely true. You 178 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 3: know what else is difficult to do is constantly put 179 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 3: it in the zone. And if and if batters start 180 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 3: relenting on swinging and they don't give into McLean's stuff, 181 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 3: what if all of a sudden that walk right is 182 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 3: back at the eleven percent that we saw in the 183 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 3: miners last year, that's a totally different story. At that point. 184 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 3: I just think that we're not really baking in the 185 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 3: potential rookie struggles that we see from so many guys, 186 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 3: and instead you're having to pay full freight on McLean, 187 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 3: and it's just a risk that I'm not as comfortable taking. 188 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 3: I know if he shows out tonight, that price is 189 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 3: going to go up even higher too, which is the 190 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 3: crazy part. 191 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: If he bombs again. Okay, I'm just nation go ahead, 192 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: all right, sustained. I want you to go ahead and 193 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: make your closing argument here on McClain just. 194 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: Said it's difficult for him to keep it in the zone. 195 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 2: He had a fifty two and a half percent zone 196 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 2: percentage last year. 197 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 3: I didn't I didn't say what it was, just basics 198 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 3: turned to speak. 199 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 2: It would have been the highest zone rate of any 200 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 2: picture in Major League Baseball, and not particularly close above Scooble, 201 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 2: above Brian wu who were the top two. 202 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: Mister will hold you a contempt. We haven't anyway. 203 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 2: Now he's gonna get better strikes. I think Nolan McLain 204 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 2: is being slept on. And the fact you would slander 205 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 2: a New York met in front of mister piece of Pia, 206 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 2: the honorable mister piece of Pia, is. 207 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 3: Just to. 208 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: Allow it. I will allow the pandering. I just want 209 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: you to know the pandering is allowed here in the 210 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: court room. 211 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 3: What what is believable about that fifty three percent zone rate. 212 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 3: It doesn't match up with anything else he's done, whether 213 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 3: in the miners at forty nine percent or forty seven 214 00:09:58,040 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 3: percent in the forty. 215 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 2: Guys get different coaching when they get to the major leagues. 216 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 3: We shall see, we shall see if he will change 217 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 3: why he still only have a nine percent walkway though. 218 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: All right, gentlemen, we will now go to the decision here. 219 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: I have to say going into this, I was still 220 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: very excited about Nolan McLain and I actually got a 221 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 1: piece of evidence here that came in a little late 222 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: that I'm going to read off here that's on my desk, 223 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: that's been presented to me right here, and it says 224 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: the other thing you have to take an account with 225 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: Nolan McLain is the fact, as Justin pointed out, he 226 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: is a Met and typically things don't go well for 227 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: us as Met fans. We're not allowed to have nice things. 228 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: It's pretty difficult. But I will say, as excited I 229 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: am as about Nol McLain, I do think the one 230 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: point that kind of sticks with me and drives home 231 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 1: is the fact that Paul Sporer said, you're paying for 232 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: him to be great already, and that is a high payment. 233 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 1: I'm going to rule in favor right now of Paul 234 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: Sport and I will say we are going to avoid 235 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: Nol McClain and as a a DP, but not avoid 236 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: him all together. The judgment is sound, man, that don't 237 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: hurt I really you got to go on another podcast 238 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: though this is the only one we got today. 239 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: You can't appeal to Joe today and Joe and Eric 240 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 3: on our podcast today. 241 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so you can go. Look, and this is 242 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: the problem is, I'm excited about Nolan McLain, and I 243 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: know Mason's excited. Look, I think we're all excited about 244 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: the prospect of Marl McLain, but he's right next to 245 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: Ury Perez. And I feel way better about Euri Perez 246 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: this year than I do about Nolan McLain. And it's 247 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: also has also been a picture's old career too. Loan 248 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: McClain hasn't been a full time pitcher until recent memory. 249 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: You know, he's another convert. 250 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 3: Make guy that makes his stuff that more much more impressive. 251 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 3: I will say that he was making stuff more impressive 252 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 3: at Oklahoma State. And yeah, he has barely been a 253 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 3: picture now, he's barely. 254 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: Been a picture. And the gramin was one of those 255 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: guys too. But I also think it's it gives us 256 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: at all. Well, maybe he's going to be more durble, 257 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: you know, he's got a little you know, less wear 258 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: and tear on that arm. Maybe that's true, but it's 259 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 1: also a matter of it's also new to him and 260 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: trying to make thirty starts this year, so there's some 261 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: around thirty, I'd feel better about it. 262 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: This is also of you know, where he can finally 263 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 2: concentrate on just one right, And we saw like guys 264 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 2: like you know, Lorenzo Caine, have you know a later 265 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 2: peak because he came to baseball later, right. 266 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 3: And yeah, I had him picked up a bat, you know. 267 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 2: Like I, I think mclan is one of the guys 268 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 2: we're just scratching the surface on. Totally understand the price argument, 269 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 2: and it is a good argument against the Olan McLean. 270 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 2: I'm just I'm here for. 271 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,599 Speaker 1: It, all right. We're gonna move on to our next defendant. 272 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: Here a picture that the Welsh loves. I love. It 273 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: was so great to see him back last year and 274 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: I was pissed too because I missed out. I'm picking 275 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: him up in my league too, by like a couple 276 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: Bucks so annoyed Emmitt Sheehan of the Los Angeles Dodgers. 277 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: Will it be a six man rotation? Maybe if he 278 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: can get six healthy stars at one time for the Dodgers. 279 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 1: I don't think that's a possibility. I don't think that's 280 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: a world any of us live in. But Emma Shehn, 281 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: you look at the projections here, nine and six, A three, 282 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: A two, era, A one point one six whip one 283 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: point excuse me, one hundred and fifty six strikeouts here. 284 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: The strikeout potential is there. We flash it in the 285 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: minor leagues. A couple of years ago. He was leading 286 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: the minor leagues in strikeouts, and then we have the 287 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: injury and things fell apart. But he's pitching for one 288 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: of the best teams in baseball, if not the best 289 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: team in baseball. Uh, we will take the prosecution here 290 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: on this. Give me the anti Emmits Shehan argument. Who 291 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: wants to step up to the plate here? 292 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 2: It's me and I just gotta say, like, I don't 293 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 2: know how Paul can defend or defend emits let me go. Yeah, 294 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 2: when Nolan McLain's you know he's going after Nolan McLay. 295 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 2: Emits she Hens price in the main event right now 296 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 2: is pick eighty five. Now, obviously in your ESPN you 297 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 2: got eighty five. It is, it is. 298 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 3: I was literally, I was literally going, if you're gonna 299 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 3: let me go first, I was gonna say, during the 300 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 3: process of discovery, some information has come to my attention 301 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 3: that I have to recuse my self because yeah, like 302 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,719 Speaker 3: jokes aside, this is a price point that when Justin 303 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:06,679 Speaker 3: and I disagreed on him, he was about twenty five 304 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 3: thirty picks. 305 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: Chief. Well, well, hold on a second, let's hold the phone, 306 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: because most people don't play in NFBC who listened to 307 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: the show. Most people are playing Fantasy baseball, playing. 308 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 3: With still one nine on Fantasy Pros, And that's still how. 309 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: Sensus ADP right now is at one forty. I'm looking 310 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: at he's pitcher going overall in the ADP rankings right now. 311 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: That's where he is, oh ap on the draft So 312 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: in the ADP. Yeah, draft ranking is one thing in 313 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: the overall ADP. Right now, you're looking at imach hand 314 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: and it's it's tolerable, right. 315 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 3: I'm over back on your back, like I can. I 316 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 3: can explain one forty easily. Justin might actually be going 317 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 3: the other way then, because he might actually be on 318 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 3: at one forty, because again our pain point was around 319 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 3: the one. 320 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: Well, if you guys want to come to a range. 321 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 3: Where are you on the one forty price point? 322 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: Justin would you like me to offer you arbitration here today? 323 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 3: We could have an arbitration situation here. 324 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 1: All right, Mason, I'm talking to me about ma she 325 00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: Han's pitfalls this year. 326 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: I think one of the pitfalls is innings. We have 327 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 2: no idea what kind of inningscount they're going to give 328 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 2: him in LA. We also know that the Dodgers love 329 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 2: the six man rotations to kind of protect Otawani and 330 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 2: their other pictures who were constantly injured, already injured, right, 331 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 2: Blake's now going to start the year on the I 332 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 2: l uh. They also have a ton of depth, right, 333 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 2: They've got a ton of guys who are gonna come 334 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 2: in and out. I just think that at pick one, 335 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: you're asking him to take a step forward that we 336 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 2: haven't yet seen at the major league level, and you're 337 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: passing up on really really good starting pictures that I'm 338 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 2: I'm not really ready to pass up on. Around that spot, 339 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 2: I'm trying to find the the Adpa. 340 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: You go ahead, Go ahead, Joe, we'll rattle off the 341 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: names for you. After one. You have Louis Castillo, Gavin Williams, 342 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: Mackenzie Gore, big strikeout potential there, Williams obviously second half 343 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: very good, Sandy al Kantar, who you know, say, young winner, 344 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: let's even get back to form, Trevor Rodgers, and then 345 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: Drew Rasmus in his next So you've got a list 346 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: of about eight guys here, and then of course there's 347 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: the Bubba Chandlers and the mis and some guys are 348 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: a little bit more unknown, but there's definitely a list 349 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: there of at least six guys that you could say, hmm, 350 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: I've seen a little bit more of sheehan. If indeed 351 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: you'd like to go with something you know as opposed 352 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: to the unknown entity Mason. 353 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean give me Samuel Chandra, give me Trevor Rodgers, 354 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 2: give me Drew Rasmussen. If you want a youth guy, 355 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 2: you want a young guy, give me Bubba Chandler, who 356 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 2: is the top pitching prospect in all the baseball coming 357 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 2: up in last year. If you let me finish my 358 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 2: talking points, sir, show some decorum in this court, room. 359 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: Mister, I like the cut of your jim. You complimented 360 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: me before the show, but again I will hold you 361 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: in contempt. You must let mister Mason at least get 362 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: out sorry one or two points, then you can hammer 363 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: him after all. 364 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 2: Right, I appreciate you holding him in contempt because I 365 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: hold by every day. I just I don't know that. 366 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 2: I feel very confident now on Paul's to Paul's credit, right, 367 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: Shean is a guy who came up last year through 368 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 2: seventy three wonderful innings you know two eighty two era, Uh, 369 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 2: you know, great strikeout rate, showed a pretty good command 370 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 2: to control. I worry about the health. This is a 371 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 2: guy who's missed time in the minor leagues. I worry 372 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 2: about the Dodgers and the dodger itis. Will he get 373 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: enough volume? 374 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 3: Like? 375 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 2: The one thing I don't worry about with McClean that 376 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 2: I do worry about with she is the volume question. 377 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 2: Will the Dodgers allow him to get that volume? Can 378 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 2: he hold up physically to that volume? I understand it's 379 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 2: a huge upside pick. I just don't love the price point, 380 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 2: especially run to the other guys is going around. 381 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: Paul Sport I'll let you take the defense here because 382 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 1: I love the talent of Machigan. But there is a 383 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: good point here by Mason, which is the guy's going 384 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: around him certainly have a little bit more of a 385 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: body of work, at least some of them do. Sure 386 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: some of them might be on. You know, Lewis Castillo 387 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: might not be in the greatest realm of his career 388 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 1: at this change of the game. We still have to 389 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 1: question with what we saw from Trevor Rodgers or Gavin 390 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 1: Williams is what we're gonna see again. But em we've 391 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: seen the less of although it is very exciting and 392 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: he is a Dodger. So talk to me about Mmachian 393 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: and why people should draft him in the razia right now. 394 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 3: I gotta be honest, I think a lot of those 395 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 3: talking points that Justin Hughes would have worked well if 396 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 3: we had stuck with the with the NFBC ADP. And 397 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 3: it really would have been really difficult for me to 398 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 3: argue that because he is not that far behind Nolan 399 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 3: McLain right now over at the NFBC at pick eighty two, 400 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 3: and we said Nolan McLain was at what like seventy eight, 401 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 3: So they're right by each other, and so I would 402 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 3: have been sunk. But since we're using this fantasy pros, 403 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 3: which is what the bulk of people are gonna be playing, 404 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 3: is the Yahoo, CBS, ESPN, and Emmachian comes down to 405 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 3: one forty, I think this is a cake walk at 406 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 3: that point. How can you possibly support McLain up at 407 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 3: seventy eight and not sheh hand down at one forty. 408 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: Sure there are some other good guys, but some of 409 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 3: these factors that you mentioned against him, I'm not sure 410 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 3: that they're not positive. First off, whose innings can we 411 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 3: really be certain on? We have ideas of who's going 412 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 3: to pitch, and we try to map out, you know, 413 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 3: who's gonna be in the rotation all year. They can't 414 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,919 Speaker 3: give nobody triple digits though, right, three guys got triple 415 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 3: digits last year. Two years ago it was Gavin Stone 416 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 3: who actually led the team with a buck forty, which 417 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 3: gives me a real Emmitt shen vibe, meaning they don't 418 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 3: always make their best guy the innings leader. It was 419 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 3: Yamamoto last year, which you know that track that's their 420 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 3: best guy. He had the most innings. But we know 421 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 3: that they're not afraid to let somebody like an EMT. 422 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 3: She Han possibly be their best guy. With seventy three 423 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 3: already in the majors, I don't see why he has 424 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 3: to be babied in particular, and in today's game, even 425 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 3: a buck twenty add fifty to what he did last 426 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 3: year is enough. Notice I've said nothing about the skill, 427 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 3: because the skill is above reproach. I don't think there's 428 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 3: really anything that you can get into with regards to 429 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 3: the skills at pick one forty five that would hold 430 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 3: a lot of merit against his contemporaries. What doesn't he 431 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 3: do that these guys can do. He can have this 432 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 3: swing and miss. You mentioned Bumba Chandler. If you're going 433 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 3: to go for a young guy on team alone, I 434 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 3: can't do that, let alone. The fact that Bubba Chandler 435 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 3: isn't entirely sure of where the home plate. 436 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: Is, I agree with that. 437 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 3: I do like Bubba Chandler. I'm this is not an 438 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 3: anti Chandler, but I'm Shehn all the way at one 439 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 3: extra round. If it was two, three, four rounds, you 440 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 3: can start talking. But we're talking pick one fifty four 441 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 3: versus pick one thirty eight. That's Sheahan all day. Still, 442 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 3: I still have great win probability on this team. So 443 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 3: while I might get some innings shaved off or have 444 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 3: some difficult management like justin mentions with Dodger, rightis I 445 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 3: will I will accept that I'm still going to get 446 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 3: a better per inning pitcher on the best team in 447 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 3: the universe, and I'm gonna take my chances that he 448 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 3: can get up to one hundred and thirty innings because 449 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 3: that's all I really need to cash in big. I 450 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 3: think another seventy a repeat of last year, Let's say 451 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 3: seventy three innings with a three and a quarter eer 452 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 3: and a one to fifteen whip, that would be worth 453 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 3: my one forty five pick let alone if he does 454 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 3: more than that. So I think she Hen is just 455 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 3: completely set up for success this year, even if you 456 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: keep the innings somewhere capped around one forty because of 457 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 3: the Dodgers, I have. 458 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 2: I have a question, if it would please the court 459 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 2: for mister Sporer. 460 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: I will allow it. 461 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: If Emmit she was pitching on the on the Pirates 462 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 2: and Bubba Chandler was pitching on the Dodgers, you would 463 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 2: take over Bubba Chandler, because that's what it sounds like 464 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 2: to me. 465 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 3: Let me before I answered, let me ask you kind 466 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 3: of question with the question, why would. 467 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 1: You say no, no, no, no answer questions questions? But 468 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: I said. 469 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 3: All the team aspect was so valuable, So why what? 470 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 2: Maybe I'm just well because you you said that Emitan's 471 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 2: skills are above reproach, and I don't believe. I don't 472 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: believe that's the case. Bubba Chandler, especially if we're comparing 473 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 2: the to Bubba Chandler has much better stuff better location. 474 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 2: Uh you know, like I I in a better. 475 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 3: For these next level stats. But location plus don't mean 476 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 3: anything if you're not if you're not not, if you're 477 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 3: walking guys, if you're walking guys, still. 478 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 2: Does right, and Emitien only has one pitch over one 479 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 2: hundred stuff plus is the change if he only throws 480 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 2: it seventeen percent of the time. Unless there's a pitch 481 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 2: mix change, I don't see how he maintains what he 482 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 2: did last season or even takes another step forward, right, 483 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 2: So I'm. 484 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,959 Speaker 3: Why I would a thirty one percent strike out right 485 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 3: be questionable with sixteen percent swinging strike though, I. 486 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 2: Just think it's a little bit of small sample. 487 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: Would like to uh, reckon back for a moment, if 488 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: we could to the exact question, and Paul Sport will 489 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: answer that question directly, because I think it's a hot question. 490 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: If Emma she Han was a pirate and Bubba Chandler 491 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: was a Dodger, would that ADP be reversed. 492 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 3: And would just be the ADP would be completely reversed 493 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 3: the ADP. 494 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: Would you be in on that player in that ADP? 495 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: Would you prefer Bubba Chandler bumba Dodgers as opposed to 496 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: Emmitch Han where he is? 497 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 3: Would we I want to do another's quite a really 498 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 3: annoying person because my my, my contention, judge, My contention, judge, 499 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 3: is that if Bubba Chandlill where a Dodger has ADP 500 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 3: would be pick one hundred. This hypothetical is I don't 501 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 3: think you could just switch them and say I'll live 502 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 3: with your hypothetical. If if Bubba Chanlill answer she was 503 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 3: a pirate at one fifty four, who would I take? 504 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: I would still take the Dodger. I don't think that's 505 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,479 Speaker 3: inconsistent to what I said though, because I used the 506 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 3: Dodger for she Han as a big talking point. So 507 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 3: what have you proven by getting me to say that 508 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 3: I would take Chandler there. 509 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: All right, deliberation is done, We've heard the arguments, and 510 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: I have to say, this is another surprising one for me. 511 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,479 Speaker 1: I will say this, I offer everybody the concept of it. 512 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: If he's going and what you said the eightieth player 513 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 1: overall in n FBC right now, maybe. 514 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, that's absurd. 515 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: Helium has been simpl that is completely absurd. So we 516 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 1: will say at that eightyp specifically, we're absolutely avoiding him, no. 517 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 3: Way, and I am too. I'm on board of avoiding 518 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 3: him in NFBC now and. 519 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 1: Now one of them, I will say, wait, wait, the court, 520 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: the judge is still speaking, Judge Joey still. 521 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 3: Has they can I absolutely need. 522 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: Well, we know that, and I've held you for quite 523 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: some time. We've been friends for two decades, and it's 524 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: two decades too many decades, I will I will say 525 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: this too. The uh, the the way that you avoided 526 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: the direct question that I forget him on camera. You've 527 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: avoided the question twice. I gave you a second chance 528 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: to answer it there. And when people answer questions with 529 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 1: more questions, that means they don't have an answer that 530 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 1: they believe in Therefore I will rule in favor of 531 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 1: Justin Mason in this one, which is shocking to me 532 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: because I thought this was a layup. But you know what, 533 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: there's a couple other names around that same grouping there 534 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: that I feel like showing you a little bit more 535 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: or a little safer. There's great helium, there's great upside, Demachi, 536 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: and so I'm gonna say even at one, we're also 537 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,360 Speaker 1: going to avoid him. Unless the caveat is you've built 538 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 1: such a fantastic starting pitching group that they're so solid. 539 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: You got the school ball, you've got another two or 540 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: three guys you feel so good about in that rotation 541 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: that you know, you got a logan Web, a guy 542 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: who's just a dog in there. Then you can get 543 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: fancy with them, Achihn. But now, I think far too 544 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: often people don't do that. So it's a little contextual. 545 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: But we'll work that out. We'll send it to a lower. 546 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 3: Context okay for you, not for me? Fair enough, judge, 547 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 3: fair enough. 548 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 1: That's right. This is my court, Sonny. 549 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 3: Boy court partially absolutely, and. 550 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,640 Speaker 1: The fact that I let you wear a hat into 551 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: my courtroom too. All right, let's get to the third 552 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: player on our list. Before we do. Don't forget. If 553 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: you're running your fantasy leagues this year, why not try 554 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: fan Tracks. They have year round engagement, offseason trades, real 555 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: time updates, and seamless player transactions to keep the excitement 556 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 1: a live three sixty five. That's right, baby. You can 557 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: do multi team trades and also you can trade draft 558 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: picks as well for players. So no matter what your 559 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: league is you want to dream up, whether it be 560 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: dynasty or redraft, fan Tracks can make it a reality 561 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: and you can bring your league over to fan Tracks 562 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 1: today for fantasy Baseball for an unbeatable user experience, sign 563 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: up today at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's 564 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: fan tracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. Now, what both 565 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: of you should have done before this show is obviously 566 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 1: brought me some sort of envelope with money in it 567 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 1: if he really wanted me to decide a certain way. 568 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: I'm just saying, you have the opportunities you both have 569 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: my venmo, I'm disappointed in both of you. 570 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 2: Would you take a Mountain Mike's gift card or. 571 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 1: There is no Mountain Mike's near me on the East Coast, 572 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 1: I would accept Cole's cash also very valuable. 573 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 2: Beyond the auto body. 574 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 1: No again, not here, be beyond one or that is intriguing. 575 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: I do have two teenage daughters in the house and 576 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 1: there's a lot of locals and soaps and things that 577 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: they am. Yeah, so that I would accept. Also, we 578 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: have to move on Joe Adell. Last year, after years 579 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: and years of waiting for a big season from him, 580 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: it kind of came out of nowhere. You saw the 581 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 1: power from Jo Adell last season, and now it's a 582 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 1: matter of can he find a way to peat and 583 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 1: copy and paste. Jo Adell has bounced back and forth 584 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: time and time again from the minor leagues to the 585 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: major leagues. From the major leagues of the minor leagues 586 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: has gone back and forth. Right now, currently he's the 587 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty fourth player off the board, the 588 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: thirty fourth outfielder, which feels like a bit of a value. 589 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 1: Last year thirty seven home runs that nobody saw coming. 590 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: He drove in ninety eight runs too. I think for 591 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: all of us with Joe Adell, he's twenty six years old. Now, 592 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 1: this has been a long time coming. Batting average is 593 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: never there. I don't think it's ever going to be there, 594 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 1: but I think we'll trade that off if we get 595 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: thirty plus bombs. Again, the question is to the deeper 596 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: stats allow us to go that route. Who would like 597 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: to take the defense of Joe Adell's ADP first between 598 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 1: the two of. 599 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 2: You, Well, I would like to take the defense of 600 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 2: him because I think when you say, like the batting 601 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 2: average will never be there, you're thinking about the old 602 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 2: Jo Adellan. This is a new Joe Adellan. It's been 603 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 2: a Joe Adell in in that progressing year after year. 604 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 2: You look at his zone contact when he first kind 605 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 2: of came into the league, it was terrible twenty twenty 606 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 2: sixty eight percent, twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two, you're 607 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 2: talking about a guy under eighty percent. But the last 608 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 2: the last two seasons he has really started to improve 609 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 2: that hit tool eighty one percent in twenty twenty four, 610 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 2: eighty five percent, which is league average zone contact in 611 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,199 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. We know he's got power, we know 612 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 2: he's got speed, and the only thing that's held him 613 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 2: back is that ability to make consistent contact within the zone. 614 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 2: And he's shown progression year after year with that without 615 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 2: giving up that power right. Sometimes guys will go like, oh, 616 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 2: I'm going to make more contact, but in order to 617 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 2: do that, they got to swing a little bit slower. 618 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 2: Not Joe Adell. Joe Adell is still crushing the ball 619 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 2: but making league average zone contact. I think this is 620 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 2: a great price for Joe Adell. I think he's going 621 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 2: to continue to get better. Remember, this was one of 622 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 2: the top prospects and all of baseball based on tools alone. Yeah, 623 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 2: but he's only like twenty six, Like you say it 624 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 2: thirty years ago. But he's twenty six years old, going 625 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 2: to be twenty seven here at the beginning of the season. Hey, 626 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 2: those of you were aged twenty seven, truthers, this is 627 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 2: the year. But seriously, I think Joe Adell is turning 628 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:16,720 Speaker 2: into the player we thought he could be. 629 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: Nothing makes this judge go six to midnight more than 630 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: the words league average. Also, let it be noted in 631 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 1: the in the court's official statements here that Joe Adele 632 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 1: does not spell his name with an E at the 633 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: end of Joe, which I also find is concerning at times. 634 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: Paul Sport. Let's take a look at the prosecution of 635 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 1: Joe Adele here on the negative side of him. 636 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 3: Look it seems to make maybe the sky's falling for 637 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 3: some folks when they see, you know this twenty six 638 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 3: percent krate, six percent walk, and they think it's worth 639 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 3: getting this guy. I think you should just set fire 640 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 3: to your entry at that point, because what are you 641 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 3: trying to say hello to this guy for. You don't 642 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 3: want someone like Joe Adell, You want someone who can 643 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 3: actually hit. The simple fact is this is empty What 644 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 3: is empty power? You say power not usually associated as 645 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 3: empty in the fantasy space. We usually say that for 646 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 3: batting average. What I mean by empty power is that 647 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 3: you get the homers. He did get ninety eight rabies. 648 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 3: I'll give him credit there, but you get a bad 649 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 3: batting average and you get weak runs, and I don't 650 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 3: really see where the upside comes. He has legitimately bad 651 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 3: plate skills with the twenty six percent k rate, six 652 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 3: percent walk. Where are those improving? He still swings and 653 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 3: misses a ton with a fourteen percent swinging strike rate. 654 00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 3: He ran a twenty two percent homer to fly ball rate. 655 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 3: Did Joe Adell to get those homers, which he could 656 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 3: maybe do again? But a seventeen percent barrel rate is 657 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 3: a five point uptick? Is he going to keep that. 658 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,479 Speaker 3: I don't know. Do I really want to bet on it. 659 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 3: Another thing that happens when you strike out so much 660 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 3: is that the times that you do make contact, you 661 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 3: have to do your damage. So if you aren't putting 662 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 3: the ball out at a twenty two percent clip on 663 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 3: homers to flyball, are we getting even thirty homers, let 664 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 3: alone another thirty seven. I don't see where the growth is. 665 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 3: I could maybe squint and see a repeat, but I 666 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 3: think that's if everything breaks right. I really think you 667 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 3: have a great chance to come back closer to something 668 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 3: like twenty twenty four, and I'll even give him the 669 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 3: speed for that, but that was twenty fifteen with a 670 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 3: two O seven and a ninety one WRC plus. I 671 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 3: just don't see where I want to be picking up 672 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 3: this guy. I don't think he's the remedy to your team, 673 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 3: and I think you're chasing pavements with Joe Adell Mason. 674 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: The fact that he only stole five bags last year 675 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 1: to a little upsetting. The year before, he had fifteen 676 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 1: steals in one hundred and thirty games. Last year just five 677 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: stolen bases. He's a very athletic, speedy guy. The rules 678 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 1: have really opened up for stolen bases. If you were 679 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: telling me Joe Adell this year, I mean, the projections 680 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 1: are telling us nine stolen bases. If he told me 681 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: he was going to be a thirty to fifteen guy, 682 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 1: maybe I can get on board and take the batting average, 683 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 1: a lot of the league average stuff that you talked about. 684 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: But how do you defend against the idea that right 685 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 1: after him maybe a round or two Andy Pajas is there, 686 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: Lawrence Butler, a guy who's got a similar profile to Adell, 687 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: but a little bit cheaper, and you know, frankly still 688 00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 1: you know, certainly a year younger too, noev Vye Marte, 689 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: a boring guy like Ian Happ who was just putting 690 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 1: up stats every year, or Alec Burlson. And then even 691 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: a little further down, if you want a guy with 692 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: raw power and upside, you could wait three or four 693 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,960 Speaker 1: more rounds and take Jack cagleone. So how do you 694 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: justify Adele considering the actual remaining guys in that general 695 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 1: vicinity and the outfield. And by the way, Paul spor 696 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: just for the record too, I did enjoy your Adele 697 00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: song reference to quite good. The chasing pavements, I just 698 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: want to give you a hello. It's me. I hear you, 699 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: all right, Mason, back to you. 700 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 2: There, Listen. I don't have a problem with a lot 701 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 2: of those guys that you mentioned, so I'm not gonna 702 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 2: be smirch, you know, mister Kaganne, who I absolutely love. 703 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 3: You Know. 704 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 2: What I will say is the reason that a guy 705 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 2: like Lawrence Butler is going later is because Lawrence Butler's hurt, right, 706 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 2: And if Lawrence Butler is healthy coming into the last 707 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 2: weekend of drafts, I bet you Lawrence Butler kind of 708 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 2: jumps up there. I think Andy pa Has is a 709 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: really interesting guy. He's gotten this uh this you know, 710 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 2: hype around him being an affordable Dodger, which for some 711 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 2: reason this year is the year of the affordable Dodgers 712 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: coming off of a two P on going for a 713 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 2: three P and I've never seen a team so dominant 714 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 2: quote unquote like have these guys go later? But I 715 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 2: think pa is what we saw last year as a 716 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 2: ceiling on a guy like that. We haven't seen the 717 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 2: ceiling on Joe Adell. If he continues these underlying metrics 718 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 2: of improvement which we've seen year in year out from 719 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,959 Speaker 2: still a fairly young guy like I could see a 720 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 2: world in which we have like a forty to fifteen 721 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 2: kind of season. Yes, the stolen bases did go down 722 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 2: last year, but you know what, sometimes it's hard to 723 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 2: steal first base when you're or steal second base when 724 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 2: you're jogging around the bases because you just hit a bomb. 725 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 2: And that's what happened with Joe Adell last year is 726 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: he just he was on got so many extra base hits. 727 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 2: He didn't have as many opportunities as opportunities as did 728 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. I mean, yes, I understand there 729 00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 2: are some pitfalls, but the idea that he is empty 730 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 2: power seems ridiculous to me when he can do all 731 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 2: sorts of things, include stealing bases. And we see in 732 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 2: these projections right here that we've got that Fantasy pros 733 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,879 Speaker 2: hasn't projected for nine. I could see that get back 734 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 2: up closer to that fifteen, be that thirty five to 735 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 2: fifteen guy with a better batting aver. The XBA last 736 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,319 Speaker 2: year was two sixty, So I think there's room for 737 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 2: that batting average to grow. 738 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,359 Speaker 3: Break for the XBA leagues, and. 739 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 2: It will be and you should play in some XBA 740 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:30,280 Speaker 2: leagues Paul. 741 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 1: And some X plug leagues as well. Love the x 742 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 1: plugs here around there. Closing statement from you, Paul Sport, 743 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 1: real quick, and if you do give me another Adell 744 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 1: song title somewhere in that argument, it won't be overlooked. 745 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: Don't go rolling in the deep though I started with 746 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 2: that one. 747 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 3: Listen. The remedy here is to simply take Trent Grisham 748 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,720 Speaker 3: one hundred and ten picks later. He did the exact 749 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,360 Speaker 3: same stuff last year with far better plate skills twenty 750 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,360 Speaker 3: four percent k R, fourteen percent walk rate, eight percent 751 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 3: swinging strike. Great. He It's just take Trent Grisham. 752 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 2: And you can do that too, right like this, and 753 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 2: picks higher for the same We have five outfielders we 754 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 2: have to fill in. 755 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 3: The league, and that's all. That's all right. 756 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 1: The court, the court has made his decision, everybody has 757 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 1: weighed in, and I do believe at this point in 758 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,640 Speaker 1: time the arguments on the Paul Sports side of this 759 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:31,879 Speaker 1: one to avoid is correct. Joe Adele just I've seen 760 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,879 Speaker 1: too much bad, Joe Adele. I don't want to fall 761 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,239 Speaker 1: into a trap there. And to the point too, if 762 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,359 Speaker 1: you're looking for just cheap power, you can find it later, 763 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,359 Speaker 1: and there's some guys getting float around there in those 764 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 1: rounds in the outfield that you could take a little 765 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,279 Speaker 1: bit of a chance on, or take the boring guys 766 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 1: like the Ian halfs of the world, or take guys 767 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 1: like Pearlson. Boy. I hope we draft somebody today. This 768 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 1: is three in a row. Anybody, this is I got 769 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: to tell you you have to look. I think I 770 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 1: think the idea is that you know, especially the first 771 00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 1: two guys, there's no doubt that there's a lot of 772 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 1: excitement when it comes to those two pitchers. But at 773 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: the same time, you have to know what kind of 774 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 1: roster you're building and also what you're getting yourself into. 775 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,800 Speaker 1: At the current ADPs, the one forty is still tenable. 776 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,960 Speaker 1: I feel like form she had eighty five is observed. 777 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: I mean, that's just agreed. That's higher. What's McClain going 778 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,840 Speaker 1: at If he's at eighty, what's McLean? 779 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 3: Basically, she had just caught up to mcquan. He's four 780 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 3: or five the same thing. 781 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, she eighty five, and I want to say 782 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 2: McClean is eighty. 783 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 3: He just jumped up to him. Mcclean's been there all 784 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 3: year and she hadn't just got brought up to his level. 785 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 1: All right, So we've got three players in the tag. 786 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: We got two more to go. The next one here, 787 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,080 Speaker 1: Oh my god, another met How could you guys do 788 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,040 Speaker 1: this to me? It's Louis Robert, everybody. A couple of 789 00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,320 Speaker 1: years ago, he flashed what looked like all star MVP 790 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 1: level productivity. He's a great defender, can steal bases, but injuries, 791 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 1: lack of hustle, lack of I don't know anything, maybe 792 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 1: a team around him. Louise Robert's really fallen out of 793 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 1: favor the last couple of years, but now there's room 794 00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 1: for excitement. I know, just per personally speaking, Whenever Andrew 795 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,400 Speaker 1: Vaughan got traded to the White Sox, I was watching 796 00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,799 Speaker 1: very carefully to see if the change of scenery would 797 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 1: do him good in Milwaukee, and it did. And I 798 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 1: know one person in this room besides me, Justin Mason, 799 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,400 Speaker 1: likes him a lot this year. So could Louise Robert 800 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,880 Speaker 1: be that guy again here? With a contract looming as well? 801 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 1: Playing in an environment where you've got leadership with guys 802 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:27,000 Speaker 1: like Lindor, with Soto, in spot where games matter, who 803 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 1: would like to come to the defense of drafting Louis 804 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 1: Robert here, it'll be Paul Spor to take the stand first. 805 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 1: GoF Art Spor tell me why we should be drafting 806 00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 1: Louis Robert at his current ADP. 807 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:38,759 Speaker 3: Well, your honor, you hit on something that I am 808 00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:40,600 Speaker 3: a big fan of, which is the change of scenery. 809 00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 3: I do think that there is a lot of merit 810 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:43,680 Speaker 3: to that. It doesn't mean that every guy that leaves 811 00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,840 Speaker 3: a bad situation gets instantly better, but not everyone that 812 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,240 Speaker 3: leaves a bad situation has the talent profile of Louis Robert. 813 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,719 Speaker 3: And the beauty of Robert is that even in the 814 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:56,200 Speaker 3: last two seasons, which were undeniably wretched from a slash 815 00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,640 Speaker 3: line standpoint, let's call it a WRC point WRC plus standpoint, 816 00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 3: which kind of summarizes it into one number eighty four. 817 00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 3: That means he was sixteen percent below league average. That's bad. 818 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna sit here and deny that. But he 819 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 3: went fourteen to twenty three and fourteen thirty three in 820 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 3: those two seasons in one hundred and one hundred and 821 00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,719 Speaker 3: ten games. That is pure fantasy juice. Even with the 822 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,879 Speaker 3: bad batting average in the two twenty four to two 823 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 3: twenty three batting averages. I'm not going to sit here 824 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,560 Speaker 3: and pretend that they don't sting you. But in today's 825 00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 3: fantasy climate, they don't kill you the way they used to. 826 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,399 Speaker 3: So you can get that speed there, and so there 827 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 3: is still a floor to Robert that doesn't completely kill you. Obviously, 828 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,399 Speaker 3: I don't want this this year fourteen and twenty five 829 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,840 Speaker 3: to thirty steals with a two to twenty something average. 830 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,640 Speaker 3: That's not what we're paying for. We're paying for something 831 00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 3: much closer to the return of that big twenty twenty 832 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,440 Speaker 3: three season, not a full return to thirty eight twenty. 833 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,319 Speaker 3: I don't think we're gonna get that, but I think 834 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,000 Speaker 3: with health, which is the biggest caveat here, it's an unknown, 835 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 3: but it is something that you're gonna bet on with 836 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,640 Speaker 3: with somebody like Robert, that we're gonna get back into 837 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,640 Speaker 3: the twenties with the homers and thirty plus steals pretty 838 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 3: easily with a two forty two fifth type average on 839 00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,239 Speaker 3: a good team. You cited Andrew Vaughan, another guy I 840 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,080 Speaker 3: was absolutely keyed in on like you were when he 841 00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,799 Speaker 3: went to the Brewers. Is this going to help? It 842 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,840 Speaker 3: did instantly. I don't know that it's going to be 843 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 3: an instant flip for Robert. But if he stays healthy, 844 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:14,879 Speaker 3: he is going to be a good fantasy player. Some 845 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 3: guys have fantasy juice that even in their down seasons, 846 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 3: it's there. Even if Robert just hits projections, which are 847 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,360 Speaker 3: twenty twenty pretty much across the board, that will be 848 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 3: good enough to take him. He is more expensive than Adele, 849 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 3: but you're actually getting the steals, you're getting the fantasy 850 00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,040 Speaker 3: juice to go with it. So I'll buy back in 851 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:31,919 Speaker 3: on Robert this year. 852 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,760 Speaker 1: All right, let the prosecution step up here, justin Mason, 853 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,360 Speaker 1: you have the floor washing. People be avoiding Louise Robert Jr. 854 00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,080 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six drafts. 855 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,960 Speaker 2: All right, we have to start by just picking apart 856 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 2: Paul's argument right here, because he made the best point 857 00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 2: and tried to use that as a positive for him. 858 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,240 Speaker 2: But it's the if Louise Roberts stays healthy, Louise Robert 859 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,560 Speaker 2: never stays healthy. Like that's just that is the point. 860 00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 2: He has one season where he's gotten that. 861 00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,120 Speaker 3: Oh that is the guy that was talking of Joe 862 00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 3: and Deell talking about health. Okay, no problem. I was 863 00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,640 Speaker 3: just making sure I was making sure Adele. 864 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 2: Adele has played in fewer seasons and has more five 865 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:21,360 Speaker 2: under played appearent seasons than Luise Robert. That isn't okay, 866 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:27,120 Speaker 2: Well whoa whoa? Am I allowed to speak here? Is this? 867 00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:31,120 Speaker 2: Is this Paul Spores time? Yeah new your microphone? 868 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:31,719 Speaker 3: Uh? 869 00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,839 Speaker 2: Louise Robert, all he does is get hurt. And as 870 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 2: much as I love the guy and I honestly I 871 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,160 Speaker 2: hope you're right, I do I I hope you. I 872 00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,279 Speaker 2: hope he puts together his first ever six hundred played 873 00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:45,520 Speaker 2: appearent season and absolutely crushes it. I just don't have 874 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,919 Speaker 2: any belief he will, and I also don't have any 875 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,520 Speaker 2: belief that it would even be good. Yes, you would 876 00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,440 Speaker 2: get power and speed, but I think like, even like 877 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,280 Speaker 2: a full season of plate appearances from Louise Robert Jr. 878 00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,360 Speaker 2: Is going to look very very similar to O'Neal cruise 879 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,280 Speaker 2: and crush that batting average. 880 00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,200 Speaker 3: Anywhere near that two ZHO nine level. He's never been, 881 00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:07,520 Speaker 3: but I think he could. 882 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,799 Speaker 2: The problem is with and I think part of the 883 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 2: issues with all these injuries for Louis Robert is what 884 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,760 Speaker 2: we're seeing is a degiestation in kills. 885 00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,920 Speaker 1: Mister s all you making some good arguments. Please let 886 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,720 Speaker 1: Justin Mason finish his argument. Please. 887 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 2: You know, we were talking about like, hey, like, oh, 888 00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 2: you know, with a Dell. You don't like the fact 889 00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:30,120 Speaker 2: that his zone contact is at league average. The last 890 00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,800 Speaker 2: time Luise Roberts zone contact was at league average was 891 00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,960 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two. It's been eighty percent pretty much 892 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,400 Speaker 2: the last three years. He also swingers outside of the 893 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,840 Speaker 2: zone way too much. We're talking thirty three to forty 894 00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,880 Speaker 2: percent over the course of the last three years, which 895 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,799 Speaker 2: means that walk rate we saw last year was pretty fraudulent. 896 00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,800 Speaker 2: He got very, very lucky to post a nine percent 897 00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:56,719 Speaker 2: walk rate. It's gonna be much closer to that six 898 00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,440 Speaker 2: percent career mark. He you don't like the strikeouts from 899 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,359 Speaker 2: jo Adell? Why do you like the strikeouts for the least? 900 00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,279 Speaker 2: Don't Robert? I mean, I just I think this is 901 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,640 Speaker 2: a really, really risky profile. Honestly, there isn't that much 902 00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,799 Speaker 2: difference between Adele and Louis Robert. It's ever a Dell 903 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:13,360 Speaker 2: can stay on the field. 904 00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,440 Speaker 1: All right, let me ask you this, Justin Mason, because 905 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,480 Speaker 1: we're talking about the ADP being pretty similar. Now he 906 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,799 Speaker 1: is twenty eight years old, Okay, so only two years 907 00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:23,759 Speaker 1: older than Joe Adell, and he's basically back to back. 908 00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,560 Speaker 1: It's a one twenty one outfielder, oh, excuse one twenty 909 00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,160 Speaker 1: one overall, one twenty four overall thirty. Third outfielders Robert thirty. 910 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,160 Speaker 1: Fourth outfielder is Adele, So they are back to back. 911 00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 1: So really it's a question of these guys are on 912 00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,799 Speaker 1: the board, which one do you take? And I have 913 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,560 Speaker 1: to ask you this question because you mentioned about the 914 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:41,200 Speaker 1: swing and miss, and let you mentioned about some of 915 00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 1: the strikeouts going up last year and some of the 916 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:47,920 Speaker 1: issues recently. How much also does lineup protection matter because 917 00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:49,560 Speaker 1: if you look, it was or should I say it 918 00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:51,560 Speaker 1: wasn't around in the last couple of years with the 919 00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,560 Speaker 1: White Sox. Man, it's really difficult to be the only 920 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,480 Speaker 1: guy standing there because you know they're not going to 921 00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,080 Speaker 1: pitch to you there. They have no reason to throw 922 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,160 Speaker 1: you strikes, especially if you have a breakout season in 923 00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,400 Speaker 1: twenty three. I understand he only paid barely one hundred 924 00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,800 Speaker 1: games in one hundred and ten games the last two years, 925 00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,759 Speaker 1: but despite all that, everything came crashing down along with 926 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,160 Speaker 1: the White Sox. So is it just a matter of 927 00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 1: taking a player with a lot of talent putting in 928 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,600 Speaker 1: a better situation. Does that possibly just fix a lot 929 00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 1: of the ills for a guy who there's just no 930 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 1: reason for opposing pitchers to even throw anything near him. 931 00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 2: Hey, I mean, I think for the most part, lineup 932 00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:29,640 Speaker 2: protection is a myth, right except for when you have 933 00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:33,359 Speaker 2: a generational talent around you, and hey, yeah, on the 934 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,319 Speaker 2: Mets there is a generational talent. You could argue there 935 00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,719 Speaker 2: might be a couple of generational talents, which, in spite 936 00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,640 Speaker 2: of Mike Trout previously being a generational talent, I don't 937 00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,480 Speaker 2: think you're gonna say that he is currently that type 938 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,760 Speaker 2: of player that people are gonna pitch around. The problem 939 00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,320 Speaker 2: is Louise Robert is protected hit eighths in this lineup. 940 00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,239 Speaker 2: I don't think Carson Bench is a generational talent that 941 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:57,239 Speaker 2: you've got to pitch around Louise Robert for, you know, 942 00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,960 Speaker 2: or pitch straight to Louise Robert to get a Carson Bench. 943 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,560 Speaker 2: The fact that he's hitting eighth in this lineup doesn't 944 00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:04,920 Speaker 2: make me feel very rosy. 945 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,160 Speaker 3: Protection comes from the front, not the back. That the 946 00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,520 Speaker 3: myth of the protection piece is the idea that is 947 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,719 Speaker 3: that the better directly behind you is who protects you. 948 00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,520 Speaker 3: That's what's been broken down and shown to not really 949 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 3: exist in the stats. But where protection comes from is 950 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 3: a strong lineup altogether, which I think you were hitting 951 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 3: on your honor. And the depth of lineup for the 952 00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,360 Speaker 3: Mets is obviously far deeper than it was for the 953 00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 3: White Sox. So it's the fact that guys are going 954 00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,000 Speaker 3: to be on base when he bats. That is a 955 00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,440 Speaker 3: bigger deal than Carson Benje being behind right now. To 956 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,120 Speaker 3: Justin's point, bench is not necessarily going to strike fear 957 00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,319 Speaker 3: in the hearts of the opponent. If Robert comes up 958 00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:43,240 Speaker 3: with two men on and two out, they might walk him. Okay, 959 00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,120 Speaker 3: then he'll take his walk still, so then the walk 960 00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,680 Speaker 3: grate won't drop at that point. I still think that 961 00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,719 Speaker 3: being in this lineup is exponentially better for him. I 962 00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,640 Speaker 3: realize this all hinges on health, but everyone's case does, right, 963 00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:56,719 Speaker 3: so I think harping on that too much. We have 964 00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:58,960 Speaker 3: to focus on the talent, and the talent here the 965 00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,279 Speaker 3: set with the steels. Robert Gibbs, he's just a far 966 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,360 Speaker 3: better investment than Adele, who has not shown a proclivity 967 00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 3: to run outside of eight to ten. 968 00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,439 Speaker 1: All right, Look, there's some good comments there. I don't 969 00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:14,759 Speaker 1: like the the strays that are going Carson Benge's way 970 00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,600 Speaker 1: after that four for four night yesterday too. I just 971 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,920 Speaker 1: want to look I feel like I feel I don't 972 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,200 Speaker 1: feel like anybody loves Carson Benjax at me. To me, 973 00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,080 Speaker 1: he's like the next coming to Sean Green. That's what 974 00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,560 Speaker 1: I think Carson Benge is. Oh right, that's my promp 975 00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,080 Speaker 1: for him in terms of if you watch the finish 976 00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,319 Speaker 1: on the swing and put him side by side, it 977 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:38,160 Speaker 1: looks an awful Oh if you if you recall when 978 00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,719 Speaker 1: Sean Green came up, that was the same question Sean Green. 979 00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,120 Speaker 1: It was like, Wow, Sean Green's a nice player, but 980 00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:46,000 Speaker 1: he's a big, strong kid. But does he have the pop? 981 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:47,319 Speaker 1: And then and then you have like think we had 982 00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:54,279 Speaker 1: seas he did Carson Benge's path necessarily. But to the 983 00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,080 Speaker 1: point about the line of production, when you go from 984 00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,719 Speaker 1: having the guys that you have around you on the 985 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,160 Speaker 1: White Sox are having three All Stars potentially hitting in 986 00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 1: front of you, that is pretty spectacular. And then I 987 00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,359 Speaker 1: know that this this means that you know, Robert might 988 00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:07,719 Speaker 1: have to move up in the order at some point 989 00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,360 Speaker 1: and he's gonna have to help himself out there and 990 00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,360 Speaker 1: then have a good spring and go ahead and finish 991 00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,360 Speaker 1: strong here and get off to a good start in April. 992 00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,320 Speaker 1: I think that goes a long way because there's. 993 00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:19,120 Speaker 2: That's a lot of ifs. There's so many ifs right there. 994 00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:24,000 Speaker 1: I wouldn't argue with the Judge Mason. Justin Mason, Judge 995 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,120 Speaker 1: Joey is speaking. When Judge Joey is speaking, you sit down. 996 00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 1: Otherwise I'm going to take in the back there and uh, 997 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:31,719 Speaker 1: you know, and they hold you in contempt. They put 998 00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:33,319 Speaker 1: you in that cell. You know what kind of you 999 00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,960 Speaker 1: know what kind of toilets in that cell right you're 1000 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:41,400 Speaker 1: sitting there on I thought it was it was when 1001 00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,879 Speaker 1: we started. It's no longer that so Louis Robert again, 1002 00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,360 Speaker 1: when we're getting down to this point here the power 1003 00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:50,719 Speaker 1: of the speed combination this late in the draft. But 1004 00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:54,000 Speaker 1: the biggest point too is the fact that there's money 1005 00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:56,680 Speaker 1: on the line and when these guys show up, we 1006 00:46:56,800 --> 00:47:00,040 Speaker 1: all know how it is. It's about cashing in, and 1007 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,600 Speaker 1: this is Louise Roberts. Let's face it, last chance to 1008 00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,080 Speaker 1: do that. It's now or never, and at this ADP, 1009 00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,560 Speaker 1: I'll take the now or never twenty eight guy, then 1010 00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,000 Speaker 1: the guy in Joe Adell, who's basically been kind of 1011 00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:12,840 Speaker 1: floating around there. So I will say the court rules, 1012 00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,560 Speaker 1: we will be drafting Louise Robert. Finally we're gonna draft 1013 00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,120 Speaker 1: somebody off. But so happy because we made this graphic 1014 00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,400 Speaker 1: and we haven't gotten to use it yet. And Seth, 1015 00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,760 Speaker 1: our wonderful producer here did such great work on these graphics. 1016 00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,879 Speaker 1: Set us up with Michael Cally that I'd feel bad 1017 00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,880 Speaker 1: if we never drafted anybody. That brings us to the 1018 00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,880 Speaker 1: last player that we're gonna speak about today. It's a pitcher, 1019 00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,279 Speaker 1: a guy who also sort of popped a little bit. 1020 00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:37,759 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of people, I mean, some 1021 00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,640 Speaker 1: people were on the Nick Pavetta wagon in recent years 1022 00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,600 Speaker 1: and some people were not. It's taken Nick Povetta a 1023 00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:45,880 Speaker 1: long ride, bounced around a little bit, started with the Phillies, 1024 00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:47,399 Speaker 1: A lot of people liked and went to the Red Sox. 1025 00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:49,759 Speaker 1: Kind of just bouncing around here for years and years, 1026 00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,000 Speaker 1: and then last year thirty one starts, one hundred and 1027 00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,120 Speaker 1: eighty one innings, one hundred and ninety strikeouts, just fifty walks, 1028 00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,560 Speaker 1: a two eight seventy ra a point nine to nine whip. 1029 00:47:57,800 --> 00:47:59,960 Speaker 1: Things look pretty good for Nick Pavett at age thirty three, 1030 00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,520 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a late bloomer. Okay, perhaps 1031 00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,640 Speaker 1: that could be the case. But I want somebody to 1032 00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,480 Speaker 1: defend the ADP of Nick Pavetta because currently we are 1033 00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:12,400 Speaker 1: looking at him as the expert consensus eighty nine overall 1034 00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,680 Speaker 1: ninety one in terms of the number of pitchers as 1035 00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,280 Speaker 1: well going off the board. Here when it comes to Paveda, 1036 00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,399 Speaker 1: we are talking about a guy as the twenty third 1037 00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,520 Speaker 1: pitcher off the board, ironically, right ahead of Nolan mclan 1038 00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,439 Speaker 1: and my favorite human being Uri Perez. So who would 1039 00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,520 Speaker 1: like to defend the honor and the ADP of one 1040 00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:35,480 Speaker 1: Nick Pavetta, do sport honor, you may approach the bench. 1041 00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:36,720 Speaker 1: I was a late. 1042 00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,360 Speaker 3: Convert to Nick Pavetta last year. Throughout draft season, I 1043 00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:41,200 Speaker 3: was like, listen, you know, the marine layer is not 1044 00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,239 Speaker 3: just going to miraculously fix his homers. We need to 1045 00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,680 Speaker 3: be careful of this guy. Watch out. But I was 1046 00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,120 Speaker 3: breaking one of my own tenants your honor, which is 1047 00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,800 Speaker 3: to not undervalue the guy who's a great whip asset 1048 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:53,200 Speaker 3: despite being a little bit of an era problem. And 1049 00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,480 Speaker 3: that was Paveda in twenty three, twenty four, in fact 1050 00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,120 Speaker 3: quite impressively. So he had a four h nine er, 1051 00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,719 Speaker 3: which is not that great for fantasy, even in your 1052 00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,440 Speaker 3: deeper formats, but a one to twelve whip that's good everywhere. 1053 00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:06,200 Speaker 3: There's no format where a one to twelve whip doesn't play, 1054 00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:07,640 Speaker 3: and he was able to do that with a thirty 1055 00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:09,799 Speaker 3: percent k rate. So that was the foundation that he 1056 00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,080 Speaker 3: was taking to San Diego. But a one to six 1057 00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:13,759 Speaker 3: homer nine and that's what I kept harping on, and 1058 00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,840 Speaker 3: I think rightfully. So I was saying, we have to 1059 00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 3: be mindful of that. If he cannot fix that, then 1060 00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,320 Speaker 3: it's going to be difficult for him to be a stud. 1061 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,239 Speaker 3: But the price was just good enough last year to 1062 00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,399 Speaker 3: take the chance, so I got sold on him by 1063 00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,560 Speaker 3: some friends, jumped in, and obviously the results were wonderful. 1064 00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 3: He did bring the homers down to one point one. 1065 00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,600 Speaker 3: It was with a ten percent homer to fly ball rate, 1066 00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:36,360 Speaker 3: which is easily a career best. I could understand projecting 1067 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,520 Speaker 3: regression there if not for a move to Petco with 1068 00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,880 Speaker 3: a ninety one home run park factor nine percent below 1069 00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,319 Speaker 3: league average, so he's in the right environment. I mentioned 1070 00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 3: the marine layer as well two stifle homers, which are 1071 00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,759 Speaker 3: really the only problem that Pavetta has. I know only 1072 00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,680 Speaker 3: pitched one hundred and forty five and one hundred and 1073 00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:55,680 Speaker 3: forty three innings the two years before that. That was 1074 00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,400 Speaker 3: not because of health, that was because of crappiness. He 1075 00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,880 Speaker 3: got taken out of the rotation one year and he 1076 00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,120 Speaker 3: was a hybrid pitcher. The other year he had relief 1077 00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,279 Speaker 3: and starting. So he's actually been a bit of a 1078 00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,160 Speaker 3: workhorse these last five years, with at least one hundred 1079 00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:11,279 Speaker 3: and forty innings in all five of them, and would 1080 00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:12,759 Speaker 3: have been able to go thirty plus starts if he 1081 00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,160 Speaker 3: had been pitching well. Finally had the breakout season at 1082 00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:17,680 Speaker 3: age thirty two, is on an organization that I think 1083 00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,480 Speaker 3: sustains pitching development very well, a high quality team. I 1084 00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,759 Speaker 3: don't see why he can't do something very similar to 1085 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,640 Speaker 3: last year with an elevated era. I'm going to put 1086 00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:28,880 Speaker 3: in the home and regression, bring the ERA up to 1087 00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,319 Speaker 3: like three point thirty, but still get a grid one 1088 00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:33,960 Speaker 3: ten to one fifteen, whip a boatload of k's and 1089 00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,279 Speaker 3: a ton of win opportunity. I have no problem with 1090 00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,839 Speaker 3: where Nick Pavetta is going. He's as good as any 1091 00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:40,400 Speaker 3: of the guys around him and a few of the 1092 00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:41,640 Speaker 3: guys going ahead of him. 1093 00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:43,719 Speaker 1: Does the bad Spring wear you at all? 1094 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:48,040 Speaker 3: Not really, let me see the makeup of that, not. 1095 00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,920 Speaker 2: Especially exactly what you don't want to see. It's a 1096 00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:52,920 Speaker 2: lack of strikeouts and a ton of lofts. 1097 00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just all bad. But the velo is the same. 1098 00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,719 Speaker 3: I don't know what he's working on, and absent that, 1099 00:50:57,920 --> 00:50:59,920 Speaker 3: I'm just not going to make any judgment on it. 1100 00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,520 Speaker 3: If the Villo was down, I would go investigate. But 1101 00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,880 Speaker 3: it's awful. There's nothing good about these eight innings except 1102 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,400 Speaker 3: for the fact that Paveda's vielo is okay, and I 1103 00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,880 Speaker 3: haven't seen anything. I'm actually, after this call, going to 1104 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,240 Speaker 3: be doing a sweet top to bottom Arizona to Washington 1105 00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,919 Speaker 3: of every picture for my last picture update. I'll see 1106 00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,400 Speaker 3: what's up with Vivetta Spring, but I haven't heard anything 1107 00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:19,240 Speaker 3: to make me concerned. 1108 00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,320 Speaker 1: Right now, before we get to the defenses, excuse me, 1109 00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:27,680 Speaker 1: the prosecution, prosecution. This is what happens with the wig 1110 00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,920 Speaker 1: stays on too long, start to lose your brain a 1111 00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,640 Speaker 1: little bit before we get to the prosecution. Let me 1112 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,520 Speaker 1: remind everybody too, to rise for our sponsor, and that 1113 00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:39,600 Speaker 1: is hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. It's turney time and 1114 00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:40,960 Speaker 1: of course my favorite thing to do this time of 1115 00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:42,640 Speaker 1: year is fill out the bracket. 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In Indiana, 1144 00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,160 Speaker 1: if you are someone you know as a gambling problem, 1145 00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,440 Speaker 1: laws help called one eight hundred and nine with it 1146 00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:05,120 Speaker 1: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, 1147 00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,520 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Justin Mason, you are always 1148 00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:10,640 Speaker 1: a party, as I mentioned earlier, So let's talk about 1149 00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,000 Speaker 1: the prosecution here of Nick Pavetta and why people might 1150 00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:15,800 Speaker 1: want to stay away from him at the current ADP. 1151 00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:20,960 Speaker 2: It's an insane ADP. It's just so it pretty much 1152 00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,239 Speaker 2: says he's going to repeat what he did last year, 1153 00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:26,880 Speaker 2: and I just don't see that being a possibility. Like 1154 00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:30,279 Speaker 2: Paul said, that home run rate is going to regress. 1155 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:34,160 Speaker 2: I mean, he had a home run to fly ball 1156 00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,799 Speaker 2: rate of under ten percent. He's a career fifteen percent guy. 1157 00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,880 Speaker 2: Even if you want to say, like hey, you know, 1158 00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,280 Speaker 2: being in San Diego, he can keep it like twelve 1159 00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,920 Speaker 2: thirty percent. He's gonna give up more home runs. I 1160 00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:51,120 Speaker 2: just don't understand why people are paying this kind of 1161 00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,799 Speaker 2: a price. I mean, both guys we already talked about, right, 1162 00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,840 Speaker 2: even if you want to use the fantasy pros ADP. 1163 00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:59,520 Speaker 2: We talked about Nolan McLain, who I love. We talked 1164 00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,520 Speaker 2: about Emmett she and who Paul loves. Nick Pavetta's going 1165 00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:04,879 Speaker 2: ahead of all of them. 1166 00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,400 Speaker 3: I also don't know how good Oh. 1167 00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:13,000 Speaker 2: Really in the nf that's kind of insane. Tells you 1168 00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:18,040 Speaker 2: what NFBC really is doing with yes, Yes, doing the 1169 00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,200 Speaker 2: young pictures. I just think that you look at the 1170 00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:23,040 Speaker 2: projections for Nick Pavetta, and look on the ones that 1171 00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,080 Speaker 2: are on the screen right now. I won't even go 1172 00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:29,080 Speaker 2: over to fan Grass and pull up their projections. You know, 1173 00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,600 Speaker 2: they all pretty much have him as a high threes 1174 00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,000 Speaker 2: e R A picture. Yeah what fifteen whip is good. 1175 00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:39,000 Speaker 2: It's not amazing, but it's who whoa whoa? What is 1176 00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:40,240 Speaker 2: wrong with you today? 1177 00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,799 Speaker 3: A lot? But it is amazing. If you say something wrong, 1178 00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:43,600 Speaker 3: I'm gonna fix it. 1179 00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:47,719 Speaker 2: Keep your mouth shut while I speak, sir, No, I 1180 00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:49,759 Speaker 2: can't do that. I know you can't. That's why I 1181 00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:53,400 Speaker 2: love you. But uh yeah, three ninety e R. You 1182 00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,920 Speaker 2: just usually can't take him this high with those kind 1183 00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,680 Speaker 2: of projections unless you feel like he's going to massively Obviously, 1184 00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:06,080 Speaker 2: Paul does. I have much greater concerns that it's going 1185 00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:09,920 Speaker 2: to regress in San Diego this year. I'm not as 1186 00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:12,799 Speaker 2: worried as I was about the innings. I think Paul, uh, 1187 00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:16,120 Speaker 2: you know, outlined the reasons why he did move between 1188 00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:18,799 Speaker 2: like the bullpen. He you know, he also dealt with 1189 00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:20,759 Speaker 2: some injury, a little bit of injury I believe in 1190 00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:24,759 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, but nothing major. We saw health last year, 1191 00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:27,279 Speaker 2: so I'm less worried about the innings concern and more 1192 00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:31,000 Speaker 2: worried about a massive regression back to being like a 1193 00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,760 Speaker 2: four e RA guy, which is what he was pretty 1194 00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:36,200 Speaker 2: much every year of his career until last season. Last 1195 00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:40,000 Speaker 2: season two eighty seven ERA, but a three ninety seven 1196 00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:43,839 Speaker 2: X cra a three eighty five X fit. I think 1197 00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,560 Speaker 2: that era regresses and you lose a lot of that value. 1198 00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,480 Speaker 2: He's just going way too high. 1199 00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:51,080 Speaker 3: If he fits this. If he goes to this projection 1200 00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:54,480 Speaker 3: for pavena three ninety ERA one fifteen whip one hundred 1201 00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,520 Speaker 3: and eighty four k's where do you think that puts 1202 00:55:57,560 --> 00:56:03,600 Speaker 3: him as a pitcher? Just eyeball like generally thinking twenty seventh. Well, 1203 00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,200 Speaker 3: if you think that that would be twenty seventh, why 1204 00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:06,320 Speaker 3: wouldn't you draft them outage? 1205 00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:11,840 Speaker 2: Okay, you have eighteen and you're starting pitcher. Rakes is 1206 00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:13,239 Speaker 2: what we're talking about, right. 1207 00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:15,239 Speaker 3: I'm just saying you went too high there. You kind 1208 00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:16,879 Speaker 3: of made my case, But no, it's it's not quite 1209 00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,400 Speaker 3: that high. If he reaches those projections, it's more in 1210 00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:21,640 Speaker 3: the forties. To give you, the best comp I could 1211 00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:23,640 Speaker 3: find from last year was Robbie Ray one hundred and 1212 00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:27,839 Speaker 3: eighty two innings, eleven wins, three sixty five. Hang on, 1213 00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:32,640 Speaker 3: if you would shut the absolute hell le So the 1214 00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,960 Speaker 3: one twenty one whip that Ray had, obviously you're getting 1215 00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:38,040 Speaker 3: seven points better, and so it's not one to one 1216 00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,880 Speaker 3: and Ray was forty first. That's Pavetta's projection. That's just 1217 00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,680 Speaker 3: you know, that's kind of your median. If I'm paying 1218 00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,719 Speaker 3: a top twenty starter price for somebody that I think 1219 00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,120 Speaker 3: their their median projection is going to put them at 1220 00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:53,960 Speaker 3: like Pitcher thirty five, I don't have a problem with that, right, 1221 00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:56,960 Speaker 3: because you're not paying for the exact price that you're getting. Otherwise, 1222 00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,080 Speaker 3: why the hell would you pay for mcquin because you 1223 00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,000 Speaker 3: have no sir, anywhere you're knee or certainty that he's 1224 00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:03,120 Speaker 3: going to be a top thirty. 1225 00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:04,879 Speaker 2: Pitch and you're going to get profit. I just don't 1226 00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:06,080 Speaker 2: know where the profit is. 1227 00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:07,879 Speaker 3: I don't think you are almost paying to get prop 1228 00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:09,440 Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying, is that your. 1229 00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:11,160 Speaker 1: Right, gentlemen, and gentlemen, gentlemen, gentlemen. 1230 00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,600 Speaker 3: Profit versus certain I don't think profit is always the 1231 00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,960 Speaker 3: reason to take somebody the certainty of his projection. Oh 1232 00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:21,120 Speaker 3: my god, the gavel broke the gavel rejection is why 1233 00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:24,320 Speaker 3: you're paying that premium. The Whip is bankable, Yes, the 1234 00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,400 Speaker 3: era is a risk. I will grant that, but I 1235 00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,040 Speaker 3: still think he's draftable over sea or playing for sure. 1236 00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:31,920 Speaker 1: Let's get some order here now, there's no statute of limitations. 1237 00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:33,520 Speaker 1: I'm going back and look at stats. So I decided 1238 00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:35,240 Speaker 1: to pull some stuff up here a little bit too, 1239 00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:38,000 Speaker 1: just to see, just out of morbid curiosity, what Nick 1240 00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:40,720 Speaker 1: Pavetta's twenty twenty five spring looked like before we got 1241 00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:42,840 Speaker 1: into such good stuff going on with Nick Povetta, and 1242 00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,800 Speaker 1: it was much better. Four stars thirteen innings spring doesn't 1243 00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:47,720 Speaker 1: matter except he was strucking out seventeen guys in the 1244 00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,560 Speaker 1: thirteen innings and just seven walks there point nine to 1245 00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:52,960 Speaker 1: eight whip there a three point three eight era, so 1246 00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:54,600 Speaker 1: he was sharp right from the beginning last year. I'm 1247 00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:56,840 Speaker 1: wondering if maybe the wear and tear of that season 1248 00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,040 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit taking its toll on a guy 1249 00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:00,680 Speaker 1: that isn't used to just be a starter out of 1250 00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:02,400 Speaker 1: the gate all the time. I a little bit of 1251 00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:05,880 Speaker 1: concern with that. I do like the ballpark factor. That 1252 00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:08,360 Speaker 1: is a positive. As he continue to weigh all the 1253 00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,000 Speaker 1: pros and cons here, I got to ask you this question, 1254 00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:13,080 Speaker 1: and I think it's gonna hang here. You know you 1255 00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,920 Speaker 1: mentioned about bringing in innings and how you think he's 1256 00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,960 Speaker 1: gonna bring an There's a guy, Kevin Gosman going a 1257 00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:22,200 Speaker 1: little bit later than him, who just basically gives you 1258 00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,040 Speaker 1: thirty starts every single year since twenty twenty one, thirty one, 1259 00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:27,320 Speaker 1: thirty one, thirty one, thirty one, and thirty two last year. 1260 00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:29,320 Speaker 1: He bitches on a great team. Why would I want 1261 00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:30,960 Speaker 1: to go ahead and take Nick Pavetta when I could 1262 00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:32,880 Speaker 1: just wait around or two and take Kevin Gospin? Can 1263 00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,480 Speaker 1: you can you tell me? Sell me on that or 1264 00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,320 Speaker 1: or with the upside of a guy like my dude 1265 00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:40,800 Speaker 1: Uri Perez, who also is going after Nick Pavetta in 1266 00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:42,960 Speaker 1: that same realm. Those are two guys that I think 1267 00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:45,600 Speaker 1: I would be targeting if I wanted somebody just you 1268 00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,560 Speaker 1: know that I could rely on, versus somebody that I 1269 00:58:47,600 --> 00:58:50,000 Speaker 1: think is huge upside, as opposed to Poveda, who had 1270 00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,320 Speaker 1: a very good season but not a lot to back 1271 00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:56,080 Speaker 1: it up in terms of his history. Sell me on that, 1272 00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:57,760 Speaker 1: pause sport before I make my final decision. 1273 00:58:57,760 --> 00:58:59,600 Speaker 3: I mean, I think his history does back it up, though, 1274 00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,160 Speaker 3: more from the whip perspective the era. This is what 1275 00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:04,560 Speaker 3: I'm saying about overvaluing the guy, undervalue the guys that 1276 00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:07,560 Speaker 3: have great whip but bad era. It is an era risk, 1277 00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:09,480 Speaker 3: but that's the same thing that you're drafting with Gosman. 1278 00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:11,600 Speaker 3: He's been at three eighty three and three fifty nine 1279 00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:13,600 Speaker 3: the last years. There's some risk there with his era 1280 00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:16,760 Speaker 3: to not be so fantasy relevant, but he's also thirty 1281 00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,280 Speaker 3: five versus thirty two, so give me the three years. 1282 00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,920 Speaker 3: I'd call the teams a wash. Toronto and San Diego 1283 00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:23,760 Speaker 3: both great teams, going to put you in position to win, 1284 00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:27,680 Speaker 3: but the albast is probably more difficult than the NL West. Yes, 1285 00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,200 Speaker 3: the Dodgers are there, but it's every team in the Albast. 1286 00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:32,760 Speaker 3: You at least get some reprieve out in the West, 1287 00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:34,760 Speaker 3: especially against the Giants who would root for them. Lame. 1288 00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,160 Speaker 3: But anyway, with Gosman, it's just the older guy that 1289 00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:40,120 Speaker 3: I have some concerns with, and that splitter has been 1290 00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:41,520 Speaker 3: a bit in and out look at sort of the 1291 00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,080 Speaker 3: babbage that he put up when he first started over there. 1292 00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:46,760 Speaker 3: I don't mind Gosman. I think that's a fair pivot 1293 00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:48,520 Speaker 3: if you didn't want to pay the premium a Paveda. 1294 00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:49,960 Speaker 3: But I think they are kind of one and the 1295 00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:51,800 Speaker 3: same there, and I'll just take the guy who's three 1296 00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:52,800 Speaker 3: years younger. 1297 00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,720 Speaker 1: All right, Looking at the numbers as Paul Spores asked 1298 00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,760 Speaker 1: me to do to spite all those whips that were 1299 00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,919 Speaker 1: so good, the one one two six one two one, 1300 01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,400 Speaker 1: they also are accompanied by eras, both over four. Therefore, 1301 01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,000 Speaker 1: this court is going to rule in favor of Justin 1302 01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:10,640 Speaker 1: Mason on this. When we were going to avoid Nick 1303 01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:15,400 Speaker 1: Pavetta at his current age, this wasn't enough. There too 1304 01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:18,280 Speaker 1: many other sexy pitchers like Nola McLain and Urie Perez, 1305 01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:20,120 Speaker 1: and then of course some boring guys. I mean, heck, 1306 01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:22,680 Speaker 1: even Sunday Gray every year strikes out, like I can I. 1307 01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:25,680 Speaker 3: Say one thing against against myself, your honor with Pavetta. 1308 01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,160 Speaker 3: He is part of one of the worst picture classes 1309 01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:31,680 Speaker 3: to buy, which is the guy off the breakout. 1310 01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:35,000 Speaker 1: Ye, like, that's a big part of it too. And 1311 01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:37,880 Speaker 1: he's not young. Had he been twenty eight not thirty three. 1312 01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:41,600 Speaker 1: I feel much differently in practice about Trevor Rodgers than 1313 01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:43,080 Speaker 1: I do about Nick Pavett in terms of what I 1314 01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:43,680 Speaker 1: see last. 1315 01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:45,880 Speaker 2: If he was going where he was going last year, 1316 01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:47,880 Speaker 2: which was like pick one eight, I'd be all in. 1317 01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:49,520 Speaker 3: I was all, yeah, he wouldn't do. 1318 01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:53,479 Speaker 1: I mean the difference. I think that's like. 1319 01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,000 Speaker 3: Yeah something, how much. 1320 01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:00,960 Speaker 2: Right? Like you a good whip too? 1321 01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,880 Speaker 3: That counterpoint, why. 1322 01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:06,840 Speaker 2: Not probably later? 1323 01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,920 Speaker 3: That is the counter to uh. I totally agree with that. 1324 01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:14,120 Speaker 1: Excellent work, gentlemen. As always expect nothing less than the 1325 01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,480 Speaker 1: sleeper and the bus boys. And of course, if you 1326 01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:18,520 Speaker 1: want more debates on these, or you got opinions, you 1327 01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:20,800 Speaker 1: could always drop them in the comments below. Who are 1328 01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:23,320 Speaker 1: you drafting? Who are you avoiding? I like we do 1329 01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:25,560 Speaker 1: these deep dives. We did an hour on five players 1330 01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:27,880 Speaker 1: and it went by like that, and I love that 1331 01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:31,280 Speaker 1: because it's some great debate and some good old fashioned 1332 01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:33,360 Speaker 1: arguing back and forth. And as an Italian, there's nothing 1333 01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,560 Speaker 1: I like to do more than argue and listen to 1334 01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:37,880 Speaker 1: other people argue. It's a beautiful thing. Although I'm still 1335 01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:39,840 Speaker 1: in morning after Italy lost. 1336 01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,040 Speaker 3: Yesterday rematching tonight how. 1337 01:01:44,200 --> 01:01:45,520 Speaker 1: It was a hell of a run boys. 1338 01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,280 Speaker 3: He I went to Houston, I saw your boys on 1339 01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:50,440 Speaker 3: Saturday against why. 1340 01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:52,000 Speaker 1: Electric And let it be known to this is what 1341 01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:54,800 Speaker 1: happens when you also have tickets that are moderately priced. 1342 01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:57,000 Speaker 1: You get everybody in the ballpark who's super excited to 1343 01:01:57,000 --> 01:02:00,560 Speaker 1: be there to the Gils now tonight. I believe it's 1344 01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:02,440 Speaker 1: like three hundred dollars a ticket to get to the finals. 1345 01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:03,520 Speaker 3: So of course, still I. 1346 01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:07,120 Speaker 1: Change a little bit. I would still go, but let 1347 01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:09,800 Speaker 1: that be a lesson. Major League Baseball's working them ticket 1348 01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:11,440 Speaker 1: prices a little bit in the playoffs. Let's get these 1349 01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,360 Speaker 1: places back rocking and rolling, because you want to get 1350 01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,640 Speaker 1: the real fans in there, who got the real passion for. 1351 01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:18,360 Speaker 3: They might have a twenty dollars ticket, but they're still 1352 01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:21,920 Speaker 3: going to buy the freaking twenty five dollars hot dog, right. 1353 01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:22,920 Speaker 1: They'll buy three hot dogs. 1354 01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:26,520 Speaker 3: Have more money in their pockets exactly, especially the team's. 1355 01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:29,560 Speaker 1: Losing, they'll buy more beers hot dogs and just bury 1356 01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:33,200 Speaker 1: their sorrows. Gentlemen, excellent work. I think both of you 1357 01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:37,840 Speaker 1: should continue to practice law. Perhaps maybe even you know, 1358 01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:40,320 Speaker 1: do a little h you know, maybe past the bar 1359 01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:42,240 Speaker 1: in some of your respective states. We'll see if you 1360 01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:44,560 Speaker 1: can do that, and it'll backup job. Maybe the office. 1361 01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:46,360 Speaker 3: I'd be in contempt way too often. 1362 01:02:46,400 --> 01:02:46,880 Speaker 1: I don't know. 1363 01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:47,320 Speaker 3: When the show. 1364 01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:49,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be a bit problem, but we're very 1365 01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:52,520 Speaker 1: grateful for you guys joining us today once again, don't 1366 01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:54,840 Speaker 1: forget subscribe to the channel. Drop your comments below. You 1367 01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,800 Speaker 1: could win the big Belt. We love having Mason and 1368 01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,120 Speaker 1: Spore here, and go check out their show too. I 1369 01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:01,560 Speaker 1: know they just came off with the big tout Wars 1370 01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:03,440 Speaker 1: drafts this weekend. A lot going on, so they got 1371 01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,280 Speaker 1: great content. Go listen to their shows. Go watch their 1372 01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:08,320 Speaker 1: shows too so you can get ready for all of 1373 01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:10,080 Speaker 1: your drafts over the next two weeks. That'll do it 1374 01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,040 Speaker 1: for us, But the story of the game goes on 1375 01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:14,720 Speaker 1: from Maazing and Paul Sports, I'm Judge, Joey. We'll see 1376 01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:19,000 Speaker 1: you next time. Coork is a journed. That's it. We're done, 1377 01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:23,520 Speaker 1: We're out of here. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy 1378 01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:26,520 Speaker 1: Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the 1379 01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,280 Speaker 1: best free way to support us is by leaving. 1380 01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:32,560 Speaker 3: A positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, 1381 01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:34,480 Speaker 3: slash review, or on Spotify. 1382 01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:38,400 Speaker 1: Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, 1383 01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:39,360 Speaker 1: and subscribe to our 1384 01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:42,120 Speaker 3: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros