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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Dally Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault at Sports Talk.

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Speaker 2: Matt to follow me across all socials. This podcast being

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Speaker 2: brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot Com. The url

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Speaker 2: is Omaha Steaks dot com slash juice to go and

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Speaker 2: dot com slash juice. All Right, awful night last night.

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Speaker 2: Look NBA not my thing, clearly right now. I avoided it.

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Speaker 2: There was nothing I liked last night. So this is

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Speaker 2: one of those things where, like, you know, down four

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Speaker 2: point five units, I think, I just like I crushed

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Speaker 2: the whole week.

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Speaker 1: I just it's so it's frustrating.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Celtics first half team total missed on the hook,

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Speaker 2: and I knew I was in trouble after that Boston.

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Speaker 2: I had way too much wrapped up in that Celtics game.

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Speaker 2: I got everything wrong. Tatum points wrong, Michael Porter Junior

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Speaker 2: over two and a half threes, wrong, first half, wrong,

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Speaker 2: game wrong, bad, bad bad, and then the Hawks game

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Speaker 2: got both those things wrong as well, Trey Young being

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Speaker 2: out really kind of screwed me. This is why I

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Speaker 2: hate the NBA, because I didn't think Trey Young was

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Speaker 2: going to be out. Trey Young was out. I thought

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Speaker 2: that was good for the for the minus six. I

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Speaker 2: thought it might have been bad for or at least

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Speaker 2: bad for the total. But both ended up. They lost

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Speaker 2: the game outright, Both teams lost. I said last night

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Speaker 2: in the podcast, watch Boston lose their first game outright

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Speaker 2: with me betting on them after they had won twenty

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Speaker 2: consecutive games at home. Whoops, yep, just what happened. Boston

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Speaker 2: scored thirty nine points in the second half. They scored

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Speaker 2: sixty one in the first half and thirty nine in

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Speaker 2: the second half. Bad shooting, bad offense, bad execution, good

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Speaker 2: defense by Denver. Nice win by the Nuggets. But so,

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Speaker 2: I don't know whatever, oh in six whatever that was

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Speaker 2: last night, but down over four units. So the week

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Speaker 2: is still profitable, barely. The month is still profitable easily.

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Speaker 2: We're you know, six plus units up on the week

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Speaker 2: or on the month. Rather so we head towards Saturday,

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Speaker 2: get comfortable. I have got a ton of bets going today.

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Speaker 2: This is one of the most target rich environment days

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Speaker 2: you're ever going to see two playoff games like one

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Speaker 2: hundred college basketball games a hockey slate that's good and

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Speaker 2: UFC two ninety seven. Now, I'm not betting anything official

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Speaker 2: in the UFC. Okay, I will do UFC bets. I'll

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Speaker 2: eventually come back to it to make an official but

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Speaker 2: I've been bad. Last year was if you took out

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Speaker 2: the ten units I lost betting on the UFC. I

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Speaker 2: had a monster year last year. I mean it was

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Speaker 2: much much better. It was, you know what we ended

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Speaker 2: up up. I'm always forgetting what we ended up to

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Speaker 2: be up. I was like nineteen units or something like that.

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Speaker 2: So we've been the closer to thirty units up last week,

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Speaker 2: last month, last year, if it wasn't for UFC. So

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Speaker 2: I'm to just do personal plays with the UFC. If

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Speaker 2: you guys are curious what I'm betting, feel free to

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Speaker 2: ask me in the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat.

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Speaker 2: But before we give you the picks, I got to

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Speaker 2: tell you about something special happening for us. With Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: You can join Chris Welch and Scott Bogman Bogman or

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Speaker 2: Bogman Bagman will be live on the Betting Pros YouTube

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Speaker 2: channel Sunday afternoon two forty five Eastern for the Divisional

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Speaker 2: round matchup between Tip Bay Bucks and the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 2: an interactive experience that puts you right in the heart

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Speaker 2: They have an offer going on right now where you

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Speaker 2: Don't just watch the game, be a part of it

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Speaker 2: with Locker. Download it now with the link at I'll

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Speaker 2: give you the link here in a second for be

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Speaker 2: there for every thrilling play and turn your predictions into profits.

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Speaker 2: With Locker, where fans get off the bench and into

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Speaker 2: the game. You guys can go and compete head to

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Speaker 2: head against Betting Pros top analysts for drive outcomes this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Five thousand dollars up in prizes. You're gonna go to well,

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Speaker 2: let me see what that link is, because they're just

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Speaker 2: give me a smart link.

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Speaker 1: So let me see. I'll post this link in the

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Speaker 1: Discord channel.

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Speaker 2: Somebody who wrote the copy just didn't do this correctly

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Speaker 2: because it's not let me see if I've got a

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Speaker 2: better description of the link.

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Speaker 1: So sorry.

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Speaker 2: I was reading this earlier today and that's smart. It

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Speaker 2: says smart link, which doesn't make sense. So yes, okay,

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Speaker 2: so just go and download Locker and we will walk

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Speaker 2: you through it on the live stream at two forty

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Speaker 2: five Eastern eleven forty five Eastern time for the first

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Speaker 2: half of Tampa Bay in Detroit two forty five live

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Speaker 2: with betting pros experts Chris Walls and Scott Bagman coming

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Speaker 2: up on Sunday during the Lions and the Buccaneers game.

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Speaker 2: Download Locker now and step into the world of live

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Speaker 2: fantasy sports where your predictions could turn into real rewards. Okay, So, uh,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about all these games, because there are so many.

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Speaker 1: Let's start.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you right here, Okay, my personal plays

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Speaker 2: on this are gonna be a little bit different than

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Speaker 2: what I'm giving out officially, because at this point in

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Speaker 2: the regular sea or in the playoffs, the numbers are

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Speaker 2: super sharp, all right. I'm laying the nine and a

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Speaker 2: half with the Ravens. I'm taking the nine and a

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Speaker 2: half with the Packers. But my first play is going

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Speaker 2: to be I'm just gonna do the squares of square

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Speaker 2: plays and do a six and a half point teaser

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Speaker 2: and pull both of them down from from nine and

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Speaker 2: a half down to three and do Ravens minus three,

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Speaker 2: Niners minus three for one point three units minus one

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Speaker 2: thirty DraftKings. Most books will charge you one thirty to

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Speaker 2: do this. Okay, six and a half point teaser minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty both Ravens and the Niners down to three,

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Speaker 2: which is essentially.

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Speaker 1: To win the game. I know they can win the

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Speaker 1: game by one.

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Speaker 2: Or two, but I don't see either the Packers or

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Speaker 2: the Texans winning the game all right now. If you

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Speaker 2: want to take the Texans as a hedge off of

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Speaker 2: the one unit play we have on the Ravens to

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Speaker 2: win the AFC, you can do that. But I'm really confident,

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Speaker 2: and I've been confident, you know, the same way I

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Speaker 2: was confident with Michigan to win the National Championship. I

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Speaker 2: don't think we have to hedge. I don't think the

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Speaker 2: Texans are the team to beat the Ravens. Even with

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Speaker 2: the ravens nasty history, I think they rid themselves of

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Speaker 2: all of this coming up with the Texans on the road,

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Speaker 2: who have been a completely different team on the road

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Speaker 2: than what they have been at home.

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Speaker 1: I'm laying the nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: Personally, I'm taking the nine and a half because I

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Speaker 2: do think the Niners win the game by seven. I

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Speaker 2: think nine and a half points is too much, but

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Speaker 2: just in case, I'm pulling it both down to three

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Speaker 2: six and a half point teaser one point three units,

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Speaker 2: one point three units down on the first play, which

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Speaker 2: is Ravens minus three, Niners minus three.

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Speaker 1: Now what else do we have in these games?

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Speaker 2: Team total for the Ravens twenty six and a half

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Speaker 2: at Fandolid minus one twenty two. In the first matchup,

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Speaker 2: first game of the year, the Ravens scored twenty five points.

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Speaker 1: They won twenty five to nine.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens have averaged over thirty points per game thirty

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Speaker 2: one points per game at home this year. The Texans

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Speaker 2: give up about twenty one points per game on the road.

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Speaker 2: But this is a road team against a arrested Ravens

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Speaker 2: team which may have Mark Andrews available. He's a game

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Speaker 2: time decision. But I don't think the Texans are going

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Speaker 2: to be able to stop Lamar Jackson in company.

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Speaker 1: I'd be really surprised.

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Speaker 2: If they on'll score thirty points here, and the Texans

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Speaker 2: best case, the best chance to cover or win the

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Speaker 2: game is to get into a shootout here, because I

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Speaker 2: don't think a low scoring game is going to benefit them,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not sold people are betting the over. I'm

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Speaker 2: just not sold that we're going to see a lot

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Speaker 2: of points scored by the Texans. And that's why I

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Speaker 2: think you could get you know, a twenty eight point

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Speaker 2: number from the Ravens, and you could get you know,

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Speaker 2: ten points, and it's twenty eight ten, And so I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna lay the nine and a half points here with

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Speaker 2: the Ravens personally, but officially also with the T's team

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Speaker 2: total Ravens over twenty six and a half points. I

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Speaker 2: think they scored twenty seven points. I really do here

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Speaker 2: in this game, and I think Todd Monkin in this offense,

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to have something for the Texans.

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Speaker 2: They're going to be difficult to face because they're at

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Speaker 2: home and they're rested. I know, Rusk could be a

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Speaker 2: factor and maybe they get going, you know, but I

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Speaker 2: think the defense could help out here. I do expect CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud to struggle. Okay, he's a rookie on the road

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Speaker 2: in the divisional round. This doesn't happen. Okay, they beat

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Speaker 2: the number one ranked defense in the NFL. Here's the problem.

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Speaker 2: The Browns stunk on the road. Their defense was garbage.

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Speaker 2: They were great at home. It was total paper tiger stuff.

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Speaker 2: On the road, Browns were not great. I mean, I mean, sorry,

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Speaker 2: the Texans weren't great on the road this year. They were, okay,

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Speaker 2: lots of the Jets. I mean, I mean it's look

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Speaker 2: at the numbers and you're just like, do you really

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Speaker 2: want to go ahead and go to war here and

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Speaker 2: trust this Houston team on the road and be like, yeah, okay,

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Speaker 2: I believe they can do this. They lost thirty to

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Speaker 2: six to the Jets on the road. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: lost fifteen to thirteen to the Carolina Panthers on the road.

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Speaker 2: This is Baltimore now we're talking about again. Twenty five

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Speaker 2: to nine. I would need just you know, one more

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Speaker 2: field goal, twenty eight points out of Baltimore after the

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Speaker 2: you know, the first week, it's funny, but the first

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Speaker 2: week starts the year at Baltimore. Last game of the

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Speaker 2: year at Baltimore. Kind of bookend this year for the

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Speaker 2: Houston Texans, the end where they start team total one

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Speaker 2: point two to two units down Ravens, team total over

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Speaker 2: twenty six and a half points for one point one units.

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Speaker 2: And then I'm going to the second game between the

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Speaker 2: Niners and Green Bay. I'm taking the nine and a

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Speaker 2: half points, all right, I think it's a seven point win.

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Speaker 2: I'm playing it like a seven point win here, but

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Speaker 2: I'm playing the over fifty and a half. Here's why

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Speaker 2: green Bay eight and two on the road to the

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Speaker 2: over this year. Now, Sam fran was five and three

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Speaker 2: to the over. But we saw a lot of crazy games,

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Speaker 2: wild scoring games for the Packers on the road this year.

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Speaker 2: Last week forty eight thirty two, Right Minnesota thirty three

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Speaker 2: to ten, Carolina thirty three to thirty, the Giants twenty

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Speaker 2: four to twenty, Detroit twenty nine to twenty two, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: twenty three to nineteen. Yes, that game went over. The

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Speaker 2: total was thirty eight and a half. As they got

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Speaker 2: going on the road. The only two games on the

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Speaker 2: road that did not go over or against the Raiders

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Speaker 2: and against the Broncos, and those both those games were

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Speaker 2: consecutively bookend around the around their bye week in October.

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Speaker 1: After that they played on the road.

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Speaker 2: It was over over, over over, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh on from the twelfth of November, Pittsburgh over Detroit,

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Speaker 2: over the Giants, over Carolina, over Minnesota, over Dallas, over

219
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Speaker 2: over fifty and a half. I think San Franz scores.

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Speaker 2: I think Green Bay scores as well. I think this

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Speaker 2: could be a really fun, entertaining game, and I think

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Speaker 2: it could be something along the lines, you know, like

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Speaker 2: a thirty one to twenty four type final, somewhere in

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Speaker 2: that range here where they don't cover the nine and

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Speaker 2: a half, but the total comes in the over comes

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Speaker 2: in here. So I'll be very surprised if San Francisco

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Speaker 2: loses this game. I just I think Green Bay is

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Speaker 2: going to put a scare in them. But I think

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Speaker 2: ultimately Rock Party plays well enough. I'm scared about Brock Party.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. Rock Party does scare me, okay,

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Speaker 2: And if anyone's gonna lose, if either team's gonna lose, outright.

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Speaker 2: I think it is San Francisco who could lose the

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Speaker 2: game outright, But I think the running defense for the

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Speaker 2: Panthers is sorry for the for the Packers is just

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Speaker 2: not good enough here to stop this rushing attack. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the numbers are kind of scary when you look at

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Speaker 2: what Sam Franz does on the ground here running the

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Speaker 2: football four point eight yards per rush for San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: Green Bay gives up four point four yards. It's the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the league, twenty eighth in opposing rushing yards

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Speaker 2: per game, one hundred and twenty eight given up per

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Speaker 2: game for the Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 1: That is not good.

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Speaker 2: And we're talking about a team that runs for one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty plus yards per game on the ground,

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Speaker 2: that's third best in the NFL. So a great rushing

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Speaker 2: attack against a crap rush defense. Christian McCaffrey go crazy

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Speaker 2: on the prop bets. We will talk about prop bets

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Speaker 2: coming up here on the Betting Pros live stream, coming

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Speaker 2: at you at noon Eastern time with myself and Andrew.

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Speaker 2: I believe I think it is Ericson. I think it's

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Speaker 2: me and Andrew. It was PAPIs Morris's weeks.

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Speaker 1: I believe. It's me Andrew Erkson.

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Speaker 2: Today at noon on the Betting Pros YouTube channel, we'll

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Speaker 2: break down prop bets and pick some plays. I'll give

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Speaker 2: you a couple of things that I like. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure I'm going to add anything official to the props

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Speaker 2: because I have my cards enormous today, so I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure I'm gonna do anything officially in the prop betting market.

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Speaker 2: I'm not a huge prop better, but I McCaffrey everything.

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Speaker 2: Anytime touchdown McCaffrey, you know everyone's gonna bet it. But

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Speaker 2: I think they're good plays. Is because it's I think

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Speaker 2: the Green Bay Packers are gonna get run all over,

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Speaker 2: so but I think big plays in the run game

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Speaker 2: set up the pass and on the flip side, I

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Speaker 2: think you're gonna see if Jordan Love can have time.

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Speaker 2: I think Jordan Love can find receivers down the field,

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Speaker 2: and I think Jordan Love can put some points up.

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Speaker 1: On the board.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going with the over fifty and a half

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Speaker 2: for one point one units. Okay, So officially today in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, Ravens team total over twenty six and a

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Speaker 2: half teaser six and a half point teaser. Both Ravens

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Speaker 2: Niners minus three in their games, and then over fifteen

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Speaker 2: and a half Packers and the and the Niners for

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Speaker 2: one point one units. All right again, if you want

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Speaker 2: personal Ravens nine and a half, Packers plus nine and

278
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Speaker 2: a half, I'm doing both those bets as well. But

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Speaker 2: you know we'll see those are personal plays. I'm just

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Speaker 2: gonna safer. I'm gonna play it safe officially and then

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Speaker 2: get in the personal plays.

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Speaker 1: There.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk college basketball. We're going back to my trend. Okay,

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Speaker 2: what's the trend. Trend is teams on the road in

285
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Speaker 2: conference play, they lose, they come back home, next game

286
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,960
Speaker 2: at home, they are home dogs in conference play. There

287
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Speaker 2: are three games that fit this that I like. In

288
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Speaker 2: one game that I'm gonna add because I like it

289
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Speaker 2: a lot. Now, I'm not playing Nova plus four against Yukon, Okay,

290
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Speaker 2: I'm scared to fade Yukon. I just did it with

291
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Speaker 2: the Creyton Blue Jays and they killed the Creton Blue Jays.

292
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Speaker 2: This game is at Wells Fargo Center, big building, big crowd,

293
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Speaker 2: big a big excitement for Villanova. They're plus four. I'm

294
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Speaker 2: gonna bet this because that's the trend. Okay, Nova plus

295
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Speaker 2: four but that's a personal play because I'm concerned about

296
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Speaker 2: fading the number one team in the country, Like, just

297
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,800
Speaker 2: how good is Yukon. I'm like, oh no, like this

298
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Speaker 2: would be a game that Nova would win outright. But

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Speaker 2: I'm again, I'm I'm concerned about Nova's scoring ability. I'm

300
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Speaker 2: concerned about Donovan and Clinging coming back. Like, I'm not

301
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Speaker 2: in love with that play. So I'll do it officially personally,

302
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,600
Speaker 2: not officially. What I will play officially though, is we'll

303
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 2: go to talk about Missouri in Florida.

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Speaker 1: Missouri.

305
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 2: Last time out on the road, Missouri lost to Alabama.

306
00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,080
Speaker 2: They are zero to four in the SEC. They are

307
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Speaker 2: desperate and I mean desperate to get a w here.

308
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,120
Speaker 2: Kempom has this as a three point win for Florida

309
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 2: plus three and a half is the numbers. We have

310
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,360
Speaker 2: a half a point there with kempom Missouri coming back.

311
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 2: I mean, my gosh, espn U eight o'clock Eastern. This

312
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 2: is a prideful program. Florida's forty third on Kempom. Missouri

313
00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 2: is one hundred and third, But Missouri's offense isn't awful

314
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 2: seventy eighth inefficiency, one hundred and eighth in effective field

315
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 2: goal percentage. Florida's defense is okay, eighty second and eighty

316
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Speaker 2: first in those categories two point percentage sixty ninth and

317
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,920
Speaker 2: two point percentage sixty third and two point defense. The

318
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 2: flip side, Florida's offense can't shoot from the outside, okay,

319
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,320
Speaker 2: two hundred and sixteen from three, they're one hundred and

320
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 2: twelve from two. They're twenty fourth in efficiency, but they're

321
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty eighth in effective field goal percentage.

322
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,000
Speaker 2: This is a team that gets over half their points

323
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 2: from inside the arc, only twenty six percent from outside

324
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 2: the arc. That is two hundred and eighty second. That

325
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 2: can be a recipe for success if Missouri plays defense tonight, Okay,

326
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,040
Speaker 2: if they can d up and play well and play

327
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: desperate at home because they are in such need of

328
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 2: getting a w here at home, I'm taking the three

329
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 2: and a half points. Missouri plus three and a half

330
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 2: here at home. Florida on the road is two six

331
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,320
Speaker 2: and one ats. By the way, Missouri at home is

332
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 2: two and eight. I'll give it to you, and they're

333
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 2: zero to four in conference. Florida's one in three ats

334
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,240
Speaker 2: in conference. Favorite on the road, give me the home dog.

335
00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 2: Missouri plus three and a half here up against Florida.

336
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:06,440
Speaker 2: Second bet Valpo hosting Illinois Chicago into the Valley, we

337
00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,920
Speaker 2: go Valparaiso in their last game on the road lost

338
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 2: to Evansville seventy eight to seventy five. This is a

339
00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 2: one in six team in the Valley for Valpo five

340
00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 2: and thirteen overall. That is not good. However, Valpo at

341
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 2: home is four and five ATS. Now Illinois Chicago is

342
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 2: six and three ATS, but they're zero to five ATS

343
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 2: over their last five and they haven't covered for seven

344
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:37,359
Speaker 2: straight games. On the flip side, we've seen Valpo cover

345
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 2: for four straight games and they're five and two ATS

346
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,520
Speaker 2: in the Missouri Valley. But here there are three and

347
00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,480
Speaker 2: a half point dogs. At home, they lost to elon

348
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 2: As five point. Dogs lost by four, got killed by

349
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 2: Bradley at home ten and a half point Dogs lost

350
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,400
Speaker 2: by twenty five. When on the road against Illinois Chicago.

351
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,719
Speaker 2: Last time of these Polites these two teams played, it

352
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 2: was at Illinois Chicago twelve and a half point line.

353
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:02,440
Speaker 1: They lost by six.

354
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 2: Southern Illinois covered, Illinois State covered, Evansville covered. Two of

355
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,719
Speaker 2: those three games were on the road. On the flip side.

356
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 2: We haven't seen a cover for Illinois Chicago since the

357
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 2: sixteenth of December against Western Michigan. They laid eleven and

358
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: a half and they won by twenty one. They have

359
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,679
Speaker 2: not covered yet in the Missouri Valley since they started

360
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 2: playing Valley basketball. Give me the three and a half points.

361
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 2: Valparaiso plus three and a half for one point one units. Now,

362
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 2: both those games fit my trend okay that we've been betting,

363
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: we've been cashing. You can sprinkle money line on both

364
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,439
Speaker 2: if you want. Valpol money line, Missouri money line not

365
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:42,879
Speaker 2: a bad idea, Okay on both if you would like.

366
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 2: But it's Yukon versus Nova Nova plus four, Missouri plus

367
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 2: three and a half in valpolplus three and a half.

368
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 2: Those all factor in. Remember it has to be a

369
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,239
Speaker 2: four and a half point number or lower. There are

370
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 2: other games out there that do factor in, but they

371
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 2: have higher, much higher numbers that I'm not going to

372
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 2: go ahead and play with because I think it's a

373
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,640
Speaker 2: difficult thing. So I made the amendment to my own

374
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 2: personal trend that I have discovered. So those three games

375
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 2: factor in. There's one more college game I'm making official.

376
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 2: San Francisco is at home against Saint Mary's here tonight.

377
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 2: This is going to be a wild basketball game. Numbers one. Okay,

378
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,960
Speaker 2: Saint Mary's is four and oh on the road. San

379
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,159
Speaker 2: Francisco is ten and oh. At home, we've seen San

380
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:28,119
Speaker 2: Francisco blow people out. It's been actually pretty impressive to

381
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 2: watch them at home here. I don't really understand the number,

382
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 2: to be quite honest, I'm kind of surprised that San

383
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 2: Francisco is a home dog here.

384
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 1: They do not factor in.

385
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 2: San fran does not factor into this trend that we've

386
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 2: been talking about because San Francisco was at home in

387
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 2: their last game against the loyal Merrimott and they won

388
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: the game. They covered ninety to seventy four. They played Portland,

389
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 2: they won ninety six to sixty nine. Those are the

390
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 2: last two home games. This is the third consecutive home game,

391
00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: and here comes Saint Mary's to San Francisco. Ken Palm

392
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 2: has this number. Let me I can go pull that

393
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: up as to where San fran h. Ken Palm has

394
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 2: this game as a two point win for San Francisco. Okay,

395
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 2: it's a one point dog plus one for San Francisco.

396
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: DraftKings has this tonight Saint Mary's is very good, but

397
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 2: these numbers are really really similar. Defensively, UCF is good

398
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,120
Speaker 2: thirty fifth in efficiency defense, fifty first in effective field

399
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,159
Speaker 2: goal percentage. On the other side, Saint Mary's is twelfth

400
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: in efficiency and fifteenth in effective field goal percentage. But

401
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: UCF is seventeenth in effective field goal percentage. They're tenth

402
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 2: in two point percentage. This is a team that gets

403
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 2: thirty two percent of the points from behind the three

404
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 2: point line, fifty four point five percent inside. On the

405
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 2: flip side, you've got just twenty nine percent of three

406
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 2: point points coming in here. Because Saint mary shoots thirty

407
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 2: one percent, that's two hundred and eighty fourth from behind

408
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 2: the three point line.

409
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 1: That's not good.

410
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: Fifty two percent from inside that's one hundred and twentyeth

411
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 2: for them. And Saint Mary's is not hit their free throws.

412
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 2: They are three hundredth in college basketball at free throw shooting.

413
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 2: On the flip side, twenty ninth for San Francisco. Give

414
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 2: me the Home Dog, San fram plus one one point

415
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,919
Speaker 2: one units. This is on the CBS Sports Network at

416
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: seven pm Pacific time, ten pm Eastern time, late night

417
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 2: game for Saint Mary's in San Francisco taking the dog

418
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 2: San fran at home plus one here on that. And finally,

419
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 2: this is a game in hockey that I'm gonna bet

420
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: for a while.

421
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: If this loses, I don't care. I'm gonna bet it again.

422
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: All right.

423
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 2: This has been an unbelievable trend to watch. With team

424
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 2: total unders up against the Winnipeg Jets, Ottawa is the

425
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 2: team Ottawa two and a half plus one sixteen under

426
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 2: two and a half goals tonight for the Ottawa Senators. Why, well,

427
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: it doesn't really matter who's in net for the Jets,

428
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 2: but it's probably going to be Connor Hellibuok. You know,

429
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 2: bro swasmen pretty good as well. When he's in net.

430
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: He's seven to three and one with a two point

431
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 2: one to eight goals against average. Hellibuck is twenty two,

432
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 2: seven and three with a two point one to nine

433
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: goals against average. The Jets are thirteen to four and

434
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 2: two on the road, Ottawa just twelve and eleven. But

435
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: the more important thing, the more impressive thing, is to

436
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: look and see how many times has the Winnipeg Jets

437
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: defense held their opponents to two goals? Are less just

438
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: gonna rip through it for you guys. Here really fast. Okay,

439
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: this is starting back on January the sixteenth. Two two

440
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: one zero two one one two two two two one

441
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: two three. You have to go back to Montreal. Three

442
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 2: goals scored Montreal. On December the eighteenth, against Montreal at home,

443
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 2: Connor Hellibuck gave up three goals overtime goal, by the way,

444
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 2: two goals in regulation, three goals in total.

445
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: Could he give up an overtime goal? Okay?

446
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 2: Before that it was two two two two two one

447
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: one three Edmonton back on November the thirtieth. Since November thirtieth,

448
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: the Winnipeg Jets have given up three goals in a

449
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 2: game two times, two times, and we get plus money

450
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 2: on this bet. They're playing Autawa on the road, Boston

451
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: on the road, Toronto on the road, and Toronto at home.

452
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: Those are the next four games.

453
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna ride this trend, all right, because we're out

454
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 2: a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve,

455
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: thirteen consecutive cashes in this bet. Even if this misses

456
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: here today, I'll come back and bet it again. It

457
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 2: misses again, I'll bet it again. I'm gonna bet this

458
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 2: until we get a streak of at least three consecutive

459
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 2: losses for this bet, because Winnipeg buys in so much defensively.

460
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: Both goaltenders are really good, and the team plays tight,

461
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 2: low scoring hockey games all the time under Machines two.

462
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: But team total under Winnipeg Jets plus money one unit

463
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: plus one sixteen at Caesars. You can get this one

464
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,439
Speaker 2: unit down under two and a half goals for the

465
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 2: Ottawa Senators here up against the Winnipeg Jets.

466
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 1: All right, big card.

467
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 2: A lot of action, a lot of things going on,

468
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 2: and I didn't even talk about UFC two ninety seven.

469
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: That's for later on.

470
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 2: If we do well today, maybe I'll tell you guys

471
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 2: what I'm betting in the Discord channel. If I fall

472
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 2: on my face today, maybe I won't bet it at

473
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 2: all because I'm not good at combat sports, but I

474
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: love betting combat sports.

475
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: Duplease Sees will beat Strickland. But here we go.

476
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: Official card Ravens team total over twenty six and a

477
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 2: half Teaser minus three san Fran and the Ravens match

478
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 2: one thirty over fifty and a half. Sanfran and the

479
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: Ravens one point one units Missouri plus three and a

480
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 2: half Valpo plus three and a half San Francisco plus

481
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 2: one and under two and a half goals for Ottawa

482
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: at the Winnipeg Jets Official place. Other plays if you

483
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: want it, Ravens last nine and a half, Green Bay

484
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: plus nine and a half, Nova plus four if you

485
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 2: want extra stuff there for a Saturday Big Card live

486
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: stream noon eastern, myself Andrew Ericson joining us here live

487
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 2: on our YouTube channel for betting pros. So much stuff

488
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 2: going on, I'm forgetting what I'm doing noon eastern, nine

489
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: o'clock Pacific time. Will go through picks, plays, props and

490
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:31,439
Speaker 2: everything else for the whole weekend. We're not doing a

491
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: Sunday one, so four games being broken down for divisional

492
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: weekend here, lots of fun.

493
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: Let's have a day. I'm at Perolt.

494
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: Follow me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt every

495
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: single morning the Dale Juice Podcast. I was being brought

496
00:25:45,080 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 2: to you by Olmah Steakes dot com k