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Speaker 1: This is the l with your host JJ Zacher. JJ Zacher,

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Speaker 1: what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eleven

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Speaker 1: nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: tuning in. The Late Round Draft Guide is officially done.

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Speaker 1: It's out there. If you're pre ordered, you should have

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Speaker 1: it in your email inbox. If you haven't, you can

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Speaker 1: still order right now to get some game theory, breakdowns,

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Speaker 1: wives the spot, breakouts and busts, rankings and tiers and

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Speaker 1: so much more. Those rankings and tiers and my players

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Speaker 1: to target my players to avoid the Late Round darts list.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be updated every single week up until the

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Speaker 1: final Friday before the start of the season, so check

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Speaker 1: it all out over on lateround dot com. It's a

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Speaker 1: mailbag week, though. I've got some good questions answer, so

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Speaker 1: let's get to it. The first questions speak is from

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Speaker 1: at true zero six five to four. It says, what

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on Ashton genty this season? He was

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Speaker 1: an amazing prospect and a terrible environment last season. Is

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Speaker 1: it improved enough to be worth his ADP this year?

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Speaker 1: So my overall stance is that I'm higher than the

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Speaker 1: market on gent but there's some detail that we need

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Speaker 1: to talk about here. First off, one of the things

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Speaker 1: that people have come to me about with gent and

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Speaker 1: Bowers too is the stuff that I talked about on

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Speaker 1: this very show about the impact of rookie quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: the impact they have in the personnel on their team.

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Speaker 1: I've done episodes on this in the past, where rookie

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks tend to result in players underperforming in fantasy football

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Speaker 1: players on their team. But I think it's important to

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Speaker 1: be clear why we see what we see. It's because

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Speaker 1: the offensive environments of rookie quarterbacks are usually pretty poor.

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Speaker 1: It's just shorthand for basically saying that that we as

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Speaker 1: a market are often too bullish on what first year

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks are going to do for their offenses. This is

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Speaker 1: not a full proof thing. Not every player who plays

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Speaker 1: with a rookie quarterback ends up underperforming. Essentially, it's like

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Speaker 1: a proxy for understanding which offenses might not be that good.

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Speaker 1: But if a player is in a bad offense or

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Speaker 1: an underperforming offense, what's the way they can still be

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Speaker 1: useful in fantasy football? It's volume right. This is why

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Speaker 1: I actually can get behind both Genti and Bowers this

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Speaker 1: year chances are, if you were to pull a thousand

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Speaker 1: fantasy football players, I'd be more pessimistic than optimistic about

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Speaker 1: this Raiders offense. I see the upside, I see the intrigue.

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Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak is there now. They signed Tyler Linderbaum, they

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Speaker 1: got Colton Miller back at tackle, and they probably are

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Speaker 1: gonna have a hard time being worse in the passing

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Speaker 1: game than they were last year. But chances are this

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Speaker 1: is not going to be a studley offense. But there's studs.

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Speaker 1: They're probably gonna see just an insane amount of volume.

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Speaker 1: People pay way too much attention to efficiency metrics at

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Speaker 1: running back or previous season rushing production. I legitimately don't

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Speaker 1: care about Ashton Gent's three point seven yards per carry

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Speaker 1: rate from last year. There is zero predictive power to

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Speaker 1: that singular number. It doesn't mean that he's going to

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Speaker 1: be great. It just means that that specific reasoning for

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Speaker 1: his demise is completely overblown, especially when Genty was second

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Speaker 1: worst in yards before contact per attempt. The Raiders offensive

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Speaker 1: line ranked thirtieth according to PFF's run blocking grades last year.

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Speaker 1: Genty's coming off a rookie season where he saw an

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Speaker 1: eighty seven percent running back rush share, and all Vegas

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Speaker 1: did with their running back room was at an athletic

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Speaker 1: specimen with an average at best age adjusted college production

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Speaker 1: profile in Mike Washington. Meanwhile, their number one wide receiver

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Speaker 1: is who Trey Tucker Jalen Naylor. That can and it

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Speaker 1: will have an impact on Gent's target share. I'm not

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Speaker 1: a believer in straight up vacated targets the way that

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Speaker 1: others are, because targets are earned and situation changes from

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Speaker 1: one year to the next. But target share is always

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Speaker 1: a one hundred percent pie for every team. If players

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Speaker 1: are incapable of commanding high target shairs, then that provides

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Speaker 1: a higher target share ceiling for the guys who are capable.

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Speaker 1: There's only been one other rookie running back since twenty

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Speaker 1: eleven to hit an eighty percent running back rush air

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Speaker 1: in a target share as high as Genti's last year,

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Speaker 1: and that running back was Sakwon Barkley. Volume dictates future volume,

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Speaker 1: and there's such a lack of competition on this Raiders

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Speaker 1: team it only seems reasonable to project genty with a

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Speaker 1: really high workload, and even in a mediocre to bad offense,

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Speaker 1: that can be fine. But what if the offense surprises.

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Speaker 1: What if they exceed expectation. That's where the ceiling outcome

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Speaker 1: can really come into play. I think Genty belongs in

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Speaker 1: the tier after Christian McCaffrey Right now. Now, I'm lower

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Speaker 1: than the market on Jonathan Taylor, So I have genty

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Speaker 1: and a tier with him and James Cook. That alone

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Speaker 1: means not more in than out. This next one's from

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Speaker 1: Paul via the Late Round Members Hub. It says, what

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Speaker 1: does it actually mean to read the draft room? I

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Speaker 1: know I'm supposed to be doing it, but it feels

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Speaker 1: like in my brain that becomes overly simplified down to,

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Speaker 1: oh crap, everyone is grabbing running backs. I guess I

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Speaker 1: should too. Yeah, I think this is a really fair

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Speaker 1: question in reaction, and I think it's an important topic

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Speaker 1: to talk about. I've actually never broken this down before

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Speaker 1: on the show, But to me, reading the room is

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Speaker 1: seeing the direction that your league mates are going in

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Speaker 1: the draft. See what positions they seem to be drafting.

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Speaker 1: A lot of most of you are going to go

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Speaker 1: into a draft with some plan. You have some idea

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Speaker 1: as to how things are going to go down, but

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Speaker 1: you don't know if it's actually going to go down

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Speaker 1: that way until the draft is actually over right. So

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Speaker 1: let's just say that you go into it, you think

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Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be valuing running backs really highly, and then

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Speaker 1: they just keep drafting wide receivers. You need to react

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Speaker 1: to the way that the draft board is falling and

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Speaker 1: read the room, read the fact that they're drafting these wideouts. Now,

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Speaker 1: how do you do that? Well, you should know what

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Speaker 1: you can get now and what you can get later,

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Speaker 1: and the easiest way to grasp that is through tears.

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Speaker 1: Like I think a lot of analysts will tell you

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Speaker 1: to not fall victim to a draft run, which is

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Speaker 1: what you're alluding to in the question. Here, everyone's drafting

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Speaker 1: running backs and you say, oh man, I really need

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Speaker 1: a running back. I'm gonna get one too. But that

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Speaker 1: can actually be okay sometimes because there's a chance that

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Speaker 1: those running backs are all in the same tier, and

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Speaker 1: you see that tier is running out soon, so you

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Speaker 1: get the running back who's also in that tier of players.

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Speaker 1: What you shouldn't do is just blindly take that position

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Speaker 1: because everyone else is. You potentially devalue that pick. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say, as an example, someone takes Josh Allen in

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Speaker 1: your league twentieth overall. Lamar Jackson goes twenty first overall,

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Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow they go twenty second and

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Speaker 1: twenty third overall. You shouldn't sit there at twenty fourth

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Speaker 1: overall and say, oh, man, I gotta get a quarterback

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Speaker 1: because all these quarterbacks are flying off the board because

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Speaker 1: you know there are plenty of good options later at

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Speaker 1: the position and there's a huge opportunity cost in taking

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Speaker 1: one that early. The only way you should consider a

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Speaker 1: quarterback is if you know that ninety percent of the

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Speaker 1: picks from that two to three turn until your next

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Speaker 1: pick is going to be a quarterback. That's highly unlikely though,

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Speaker 1: in the single quarterback league, even in a superflex league.

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Speaker 1: So you're reading the room by seeing who they're picking

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Speaker 1: and evaluating if you need to be doing the same

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Speaker 1: thing or if you can find that kind of value later.

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Speaker 1: Reading the room is also about understanding what your league

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Speaker 1: mates are doing to see if you can extract value.

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Speaker 1: I did a Best Ball draft the other day on

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Speaker 1: the YouTube channel where I was in the one to

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Speaker 1: eleven spot. The person in the twelfth spot took Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson and Joe Burrow at the five to six turn,

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Speaker 1: I didn't take Lamar because I have a lot of

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Speaker 1: him and it didn't fit my bill as well. But

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Speaker 1: knowing that team had Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson meant

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Speaker 1: that I could squeeze out more value when it was

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Speaker 1: my turn to pick. So round seven came along, and

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Speaker 1: I wanted Justin Herbert because I had AMRII and Hampton

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Speaker 1: and Lad McConkey on this team, but Jalen Warren had fallen,

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Speaker 1: so I got Warren, knowing that the team with Burrow

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Speaker 1: and Jackson likely wasn't going to take a quarterback, and

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Speaker 1: they didn't, so I got both players that I wanted.

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Speaker 1: I got both Jalen Warren and Justin Herbert. Reading the

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Speaker 1: room is about understanding tiers and where there might be

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Speaker 1: drop offs, and then playing the value extraction game based

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Speaker 1: on other people's rosters. This has questions from Twitter. It's

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Speaker 1: from at can You Ticket? It says Bucky Irving, how

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Speaker 1: concerned are you after last season and being banged up

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Speaker 1: this offseason? Look, I'm pretty concerned. In Bestball, his ADP

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Speaker 1: is kind of reasonable, but that Bestball ADP is not

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Speaker 1: where you're going to see in season long drafts this year.

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Speaker 1: And what you see on various platforms, you'll often get

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Speaker 1: Bucky Irving after pick sixty over on draftings. So into

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Speaker 1: round six, consensus ADP across multiple big platforms like ESPN

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Speaker 1: and Yahoo have him as a top fifty player, and

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Speaker 1: that kind of cost is where I'm out because I'd

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Speaker 1: rather be taking someone like DeAndre Swift over him. I

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Speaker 1: like a lot of the upside for the year two

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Speaker 1: backs in that range. He did average thirteen point nine

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Speaker 1: PPR points per game last year, but he also finished

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Speaker 1: last and rushing yards over expected per attempt, which isn't everything,

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Speaker 1: but when it's at the extremes, I'll pay a little

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Speaker 1: bit more attention. And going back to what I talked

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Speaker 1: about earlier, some rushing metrics are going to be better

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Speaker 1: than others, but that's not really the crux of the

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Speaker 1: argument for me. It's more so that his expected touchdowns

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Speaker 1: were just two last year and he saw zero goal

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Speaker 1: line attempts. Sean Tucker played that role down the stretch

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Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay, and then you look at the receiving

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Speaker 1: workload and look, he's actually been pretty good per route

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Speaker 1: run throughout his career. Irving should probably be used more there,

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Speaker 1: but they added Kenneth Gainwell this offseason. That's sort of

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Speaker 1: his specialty. So my fear with Irving is that he's

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Speaker 1: seen as somewhat of an interchangeable piece with Kenneth Gainwell,

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Speaker 1: and then he's more of like a between the twenties

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Speaker 1: player rather than someone who gets a lot of work

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Speaker 1: at the goal line and then gets a lot of

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Speaker 1: work through the air. And I don't think the goal

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Speaker 1: mine stuff is really going to change given these injuries,

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Speaker 1: given his health, it's just a tough sell overall. This

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Speaker 1: next question is from Jamie via the Members Hub. It says, Hey, JJ,

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Speaker 1: apologies in advance for the long question. Everybody seems to

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Speaker 1: always be looking for true X receivers as the most

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Speaker 1: likely to become difference makers. Obviously, the ability to play

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Speaker 1: outside is important, but with the trend in recent years

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Speaker 1: across the league of using two high looks often, it

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Speaker 1: feels like the success of vertical routes has been limited.

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Speaker 1: Some of the studs over the past few years have

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Speaker 1: differentiated themselves through having the X receiver build but thriving

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Speaker 1: in slot usage. Drake London, CD Lamb, even Jamar Chase

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Speaker 1: and Jamison Williams using their yak ability Is there something

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Speaker 1: to be said for finding difference making receivers by identifying

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Speaker 1: a certain build with high slot usage, or is it

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Speaker 1: as simple as bigger route tree equals bigger talent indicator.

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Speaker 1: I mean, yet, we want versatility with our elite wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: I did that episode in the Death of the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football Wide Receiver two to start this offseason, but I

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Speaker 1: also didn't email newsletter follow up where I talked about

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Speaker 1: the death of specifically the slot receiver. In recent years,

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Speaker 1: we've seen fewer pure slot receivers across the league. Last year,

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Speaker 1: there were only three who had a seventy percent slot

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Speaker 1: rate while running at least three hundred routes. It's according

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Speaker 1: to PFF data, that was by far the lowest that

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Speaker 1: we've seen since twenty eleven, and it wasn't even close.

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Speaker 1: We also saw the lowest number of fifty percent or

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Speaker 1: more and sixty percent or more rates. So the pure

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Speaker 1: slot guy is kind of disappearing, and my theory is

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Speaker 1: that teams are using more tight ends to replace those

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Speaker 1: types of looks. If you look at the share of

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Speaker 1: slot targets that have gone to wide receivers, so overall

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Speaker 1: slot targets to wide receivers and tight ends and the

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Speaker 1: proportion of that that's going to wide receivers. If you

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Speaker 1: look at that, there's been a consistent downward trend since

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. So pure slot players, they're kind of disappearing.

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Speaker 1: The Khalil Shakirs of the world are not very common,

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Speaker 1: but slot work is still what we're after. According to

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Speaker 1: True Media data, the typical slot target has generated more

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Speaker 1: fantasy points per target than a typical perimeter target, and

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Speaker 1: that's based on pre snap alignment, and it's not by

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Speaker 1: a significant amount. But think about the types of players

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Speaker 1: that are seeing those slot looks historically, because this is

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Speaker 1: over the last ten years, there's a bias to this data.

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Speaker 1: Better players are the ones who are playing on the

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Speaker 1: perimeter more frequently, so you're still getting more points per

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Speaker 1: target out of the slot despite those better players generally

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Speaker 1: playing on the perimeter. So yes, having versatile playmakers who

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Speaker 1: can play inside out is always the goal. But taking

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Speaker 1: this a step further, I think it's also part of

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Speaker 1: the goal here because it shows intent, it shows creativity.

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Speaker 1: If an offensive coordinator is moving his best wide receiver

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Speaker 1: all around the field, then that's probably a coordinator worth

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Speaker 1: caring about for fantasy football purposes, a bigger route tree

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Speaker 1: is important because you want these guys to be on

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Speaker 1: the field for every single dropback. You want the ability

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Speaker 1: to play inside out. You don't want a guy who

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Speaker 1: can only play in the slot that can cap his upside,

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Speaker 1: as we've seen with Josh Downs and Jaden Reed historically,

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Speaker 1: but hopefully that changes this year. We're gonna end today's

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Speaker 1: show with a question from at only Andrew you know

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Speaker 1: on Twitter. It says love the pod. Thanks. We'd love

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Speaker 1: to hear your thirty second bowl case and bearcase for

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Speaker 1: the late first slash early second round running backs, as

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Speaker 1: I'm having difficulty ranking them. To me, that's Jonathan Taylor,

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Speaker 1: Ashton Genty, Sakuon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Amarian Hampton, Devon a Chan,

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Speaker 1: James Cook, and Chase Brown. They all seem clustered together. Thanks.

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Speaker 1: So I love that you asked for both the bowl

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Speaker 1: and the bearcase here because I think looking at all

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Speaker 1: angles is really important and then you guys can kind

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Speaker 1: of decide. But here's a very quick bowl case in

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Speaker 1: bear case for each of those guys. Some I like

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Speaker 1: more than others, which you can CMI rankings, which are

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Speaker 1: both in the Draft guide and on Late Round dot

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Speaker 1: Com for members, though I do think that most of

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Speaker 1: these guys just fall into one giant tier. So Jonathan

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Speaker 1: Taylor the Bowl case. He was averaging over twenty seven

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Speaker 1: points per game through Week ten last year, and even

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Speaker 1: through the next few weeks before Daniel Jones tore his achilles,

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Speaker 1: he was averaging almost twenty five PPR points per game.

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Speaker 1: The bear case. Taylor's yet to see an eleven percent

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Speaker 1: target share in a season, and he outperformed touchdown expectation

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Speaker 1: by four or five touchdowns last year. Ashton Genty the

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Speaker 1: Bowl case. He's an elite prospect who saw a rookie

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Speaker 1: season workload that's really only been seen by Saquon Barkley

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Speaker 1: since twenty eleven. As I talked about earlier, the bear case,

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Speaker 1: last year's woes were partially his issue, and the offense

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Speaker 1: doesn't take a step forward at all this year. Sakuon

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Speaker 1: Barkley the Bowl case. Kevin Botulo is an awful offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 1: and it led Saquon Barkley to seeing by far his

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Speaker 1: lowest rate of twenty plus yard runs of his career.

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Speaker 1: The bear case. Barkley's twenty twenty five was just the

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Speaker 1: start of him being on the wrong side of the AJPEX,

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Speaker 1: and Philadelphia's offense doesn't see any improvement without aj Brown.

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Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker the Bowl case, he sees a true bellcow

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Speaker 1: workload and dominates in the red zone with one of

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Speaker 1: the best offensive minds of this era as his head coach.

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Speaker 1: The bear case, he's reached an eight percent target chair

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Speaker 1: just once in his career, and he doesn't take on

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Speaker 1: a big enough receiving workload to pay off this price tag.

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Speaker 1: Amrion Hampton the Bowl case. The Chargers offensive line is

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Speaker 1: one of the best in football and Mike McDaniel helps

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Speaker 1: LA become a top three offense, allowing Amrion Hampton to

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Speaker 1: lead the NFL in touchdowns. The bear case, it's a

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Speaker 1: three headed backfield and Hampton doesn't see enough touches to

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Speaker 1: warn his ADP James Cook. The Bowl case, he takes

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Speaker 1: on a larger receiving workload and completely dominates because he

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Speaker 1: find has a true bell cow workload. The bear case,

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Speaker 1: touchdown regression hits hard, and he's still not able to

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Speaker 1: hit a ten percent target chair, something he's yet to

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Speaker 1: do in his NFL career. Devon A Chan the bowl case,

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense is better than expected with a Chan

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Speaker 1: as the focal point where he does hit that twenty

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Speaker 1: percent target chair. The bear case, Malik Willis is a disaster.

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Speaker 1: The Dolphins offense is bottom five in the league and

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Speaker 1: Willis's mobility caps eight Chan's receiving ceiling. And then finally

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Speaker 1: there's Chase Brown. The bowl case, he's the bell cow

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Speaker 1: and one of the best offenses in the league, continuing

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Speaker 1: to dominate receiving work after hitting a fourteen and a

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Speaker 1: half percent target share last season. The bear case, not

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Speaker 1: only does samaj p Ryan continue digging into his rush share,

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Speaker 1: but Brown sees a serious decline in receiving work too.

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Speaker 1: So there you go. Not overly scientific necessarily, but I

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Speaker 1: think you can make bear cases for most of these

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Speaker 1: guys pretty easily despite where they're being. It doesn't make

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Speaker 1: them bad picks. It's just recognizing the volatility of this game.

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Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of

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Speaker 1: you for listening. If you subscribe to the Late Round

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are restarching for it

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Speaker 1: pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late round QB.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually taking a family vacation next week, so you

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Speaker 1: won't have a completely normal schedule for this podcast. You'll

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Speaker 1: get an episode on Tuesday as usual, and then we

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Speaker 1: have a special becoming a best ball bro for you too.

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Speaker 1: But that's it for next week. But I'll be back

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Speaker 1: and i'll be refreshed the week after, and that's when

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Speaker 1: things really get going. Take care of everyone,