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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast pot All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen hondy twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the.

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Speaker 3: Kick as block the college football world standard.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he stumbled, and football the lateral turn,

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Speaker 1: the counter on.

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Speaker 3: The inside, don't you the lad I'm not table up

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Speaker 3: the fail to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the all.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: Week nine college football betting preview. I'm stucky Enjoining me

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Speaker 2: as always is Colin Wilson. Looking a little more optimistic

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Speaker 2: than usual. I think that's because you can avoid pain.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas on a bye.

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Speaker 1: Not gonna lose anybody this week. Arkansas is on a bye.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how the makeshift offensive plan comes together next week.

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Speaker 1: But as for this podcast of week nine, I have

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Speaker 1: a feeling in the air there's gonna be some upsets

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Speaker 1: happening that we're not expecting.

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Speaker 2: All right, we will get to as always, are were

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Speaker 2: three marquee matchups this week. We'll get to do a

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Speaker 2: quick rundown twenty minutes or so of five or six

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Speaker 2: other games. That's some five or six trash as always,

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Speaker 2: and then we'll go three and out talk a little

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Speaker 2: Friday Night lights, favorite overdogs, underdogs. But let's start with

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Speaker 2: some look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 1: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: One of the bigger games next week Washington against usc

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Speaker 2: Washington will try to remain undefeated and keep their PAC

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Speaker 2: twelve College Wall playoff and national title hopes intact. Before that, though,

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Speaker 2: Washington will travel to Stanford. Washington is just coming off

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Speaker 2: of a lost win where they did not score an

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Speaker 2: offensive touchdown. They barely got out of dodge in that

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Speaker 2: game against Arizona State. Now they will play a really

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Speaker 2: bad Stanford team that has looked really bad every week

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Speaker 2: except the second half against Colorado. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: Pennis is one hundred percent healthy, but if there was

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Speaker 2: ever a game to get right get back in to

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Speaker 2: that hot I mean, he's the second I think he's

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Speaker 2: a second favorite in the Heisman race now, but to

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Speaker 2: put up some good numbers, this would be the game.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, it's not not a number. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: to lay game. I'm looking to bet you see anything

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Speaker 2: there in Washington at Stanford.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do. You kind of mentioned the attitude that

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Speaker 1: Washington should have, like this should be a get healthy game,

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Speaker 1: and considering they have USC on deck, I would think

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Speaker 1: that the get healthy portion should happen in the first half,

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Speaker 1: and I don't expect a ton of overlook. Like when

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Speaker 1: you struggle against Arizona State, you need to have a

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Speaker 1: good couple of possessions on offense. There's nothing Stanford can

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Speaker 1: do defensively to stop washing. And they're dead last and

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Speaker 1: havoc finishing drives, passing down success right pressure allowed. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're terrible across the board. I took an over thirty

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Speaker 1: one in the first half. Assuming Washington's going to try

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Speaker 1: to get right here, the question is, do you think

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Speaker 1: Stanford's rushing attack can produce a couple of quality drives.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna make a bet that Washington scores twenty four

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Speaker 1: in the first half. I'll say yes, So I'll take

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Speaker 1: the over thirty one here.

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Speaker 2: All right, moving on to we'll talk two games here

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Speaker 2: Texas Kansas State next week. That's a big one in

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Speaker 2: the big twelve as it stands right now, Oklahoma is

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Speaker 2: four and oh in the Big twelve. We'll talk Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: Kansas later in the show. And then you have a

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Speaker 2: four way tie for second with Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State,

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Speaker 2: and Kansas State. Kansas State has really come on here

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Speaker 2: of late with a dual quarterback system. Your boys been

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Speaker 2: really explosive and they've really turned their season round. So

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Speaker 2: it was Oklahoma State. We'll talk about them later in

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Speaker 2: Iowa State has been better than advertised. But let's start

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Speaker 2: with Houston at Kansas State. Can Kansas State avoid a

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Speaker 2: potential look ahead here? How do they match up with Houston?

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Speaker 2: What do you see here?

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Speaker 1: This almost became my overdog for a consecutive week. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Kansas State's on fire right now. I think the question

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Speaker 1: is is can Dana Holerson get Houston back on track

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Speaker 1: from an emotional loss against Texas. This is three consecutive

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Speaker 1: emotional games in a row. Texas Tech, which everybody says

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Speaker 1: is the new rival for Houston. I mean, with the

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Speaker 1: Mike Leech ties and all of the ties that Dana has.

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech. That was a big game. Then they played

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Speaker 1: West Virginia, Dana's old place of employment. That's a big game.

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Speaker 1: Then Texas the premier measuring stick for all schools in

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Speaker 1: the state of Texas. I mean, how much do you

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Speaker 1: have left in the tank? And now Kansas State comes

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Speaker 1: in with this inside zone, power pole, lead man counter

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Speaker 1: concepts Houston is one hundred and eleventh and defensive stuff rate.

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Speaker 1: Kansas State is going to dominate the line of scrimmage here.

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Speaker 1: They run a ton of inside zone and counter avery.

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Speaker 1: Johnson didn't have any touchdowns run in last week. He

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Speaker 1: had four explosive runs. He had four five tds against

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech, but none of them last week. He did

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Speaker 1: have two big time throws, recorded his first TV pass.

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Speaker 1: That's only half the equation with Will Howard doing his thing.

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Speaker 1: Houston's one hundred nineteenth in defensive pass EPA or one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty ninth and passing down success rate. This

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Speaker 1: is bad. All of this is bad. Even if they

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Speaker 1: can shove Kansas State behind the chains, they're gonna get

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna get run. The only worry that

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Speaker 1: I have with a number this big for Kansas State

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Speaker 1: is the fact that they run like thirty one seconds

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Speaker 1: per play, Like they're so slow to me, it's Kansas

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Speaker 1: State versus the clock to cover this number.

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Speaker 2: You can throw on Houston. The Houston secondary is terrible.

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Speaker 2: They lost a couple guys to the NFL. I will

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Speaker 2: say that their rush defense numbers are artificially bad because

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Speaker 2: they had some really they had a lot of injuries

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Speaker 2: up front, but they got in Alongku Callman back up front,

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Speaker 2: and over the last two games their run defense is

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Speaker 2: really held up against Texas and West Virginia is a

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Speaker 2: really good rushing attack. So my only question would be,

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Speaker 2: is Kansas State with Texas on deck, are they gonna,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's a slow, methodical team, are they going

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Speaker 2: to actually want to pass enough to cover this number?

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Speaker 2: You know? So I actually in this spot with the

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Speaker 2: improvement Houston's run defense now that they got healthier up front.

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Speaker 2: So nothing there for me, but I actually would lean

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Speaker 2: Houston at over seventeen. The other part of that equation

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Speaker 2: similar spread BYU at Texas. Texas will not have quin

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Speaker 2: Yours at starting quarterback. Instead, they'll go with Malik Murphy.

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Speaker 2: This this BYU team is terrible, I mean just atrocious.

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Speaker 2: They they you know, you go back. They got some luck.

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Speaker 2: They were lucky against Arkansas they were lucky against Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: and it's and by the way, both those teams are

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Speaker 2: what on five game losing streaks. So the first question

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Speaker 2: is what is the drop off to the quarterback?

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: It's it's a couple of points at least. But Milike

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Speaker 2: Murphy's a really talented kid. We just saw BYU on

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Speaker 2: the road, you know, get lose by thirty three to

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Speaker 2: TCUs backup quarterback. So you know this is an audition

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Speaker 2: from Milik Murphy. He's auditioning for next year in the

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Speaker 2: transfer portal. So after that scare last week, I know

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Speaker 2: they have Kansas State on deck, but I cannot get

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Speaker 2: behind b Yu. I think you did. You played some

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Speaker 2: BYU early. I can't get there. This is Texas or

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Speaker 2: nothing for me.

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Speaker 1: I mean I played BYU the second that the ac

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Speaker 1: joint spring came out for yours and I said, you know,

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Speaker 1: is this gets down, I might come back and cover

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Speaker 1: it up because I think it'll close less than seventeen,

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Speaker 1: which I'm happy. Some meatballs that read our app doesn't

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Speaker 1: know that I put in minus seven. I meant minus seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Good job reading, you know. And the thing is I

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Speaker 1: knew that I would come back. Because I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: how much I believe in Malik Murphy. I'm gonna have

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Speaker 1: to do a deep dive on him. There's just not

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Speaker 1: much to go on. I think he's had eight passing

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Speaker 1: attempts this season, and so when you listen to the

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Speaker 1: quotes from Xavier Worthy or some of the other people

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Speaker 1: around the team, it's that yours has the touch. Malik

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Speaker 1: Murphy has the fastball. And that's a problem because when

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Speaker 1: you go and look at his throws last week, like

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Speaker 1: he's drilling guys eight yards away, Like he throws he

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Speaker 1: should be a shortstop in Major League baseball. Guy's got

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Speaker 1: a cannon, but he doesn't have any touch. He can

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Speaker 1: throw it that fast when the receivers the target's maybe

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Speaker 1: five yards away. So you know, if you watch the

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Speaker 1: tape of him against Rice or in relief against Houston,

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Speaker 1: he's above their heads. He's behind the targets. Inaccuracy was

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Speaker 1: a really big problem, and I'm pretty sure that's why

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Speaker 1: Quinny was probably won the job over him during the summer. So,

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Speaker 1: but you're right about BYU. They don't create any havoc,

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Speaker 1: they don't have any tackling. It's a really tough bet

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Speaker 1: to make. I think the numbers too high too. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I make it fourteen and a half. So I'm still

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Speaker 1: kind of twined in about what I'm gonna do with

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Speaker 1: this game.

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Speaker 2: I had no interest in back in the Mormons now

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Speaker 2: or probably for the rest of the year. All right,

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Speaker 2: but let's before let's get to the marque matchups. But

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Speaker 2: before we do, as a reminder, the BBOC podcast cent

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Speaker 2: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, High Wall, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusett's, Michigan,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 2: Terms of conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem called winning hundred gambler. All right, let's get

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Speaker 2: to the marque matchups of the weekend. It's another fabulous

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Speaker 2: weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups

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Speaker 2: we'll all end up betting for week nine. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's start. Let's go to the SCC here. It's just

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Speaker 2: me boy. It's not a ton of great marquee matchups

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Speaker 2: this weekend. Fortunately for us better as that doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: because we'll be spraying the board and sweating all day.

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Speaker 2: But this is definitely one of them. The World's Largest

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Speaker 2: cocktail Party three thirty Eastern on CBS in Jacksonville between

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Speaker 2: Georgia and Florida. This line is Georgia minus fourteen and

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Speaker 2: a half. I think is consensus. We've seen it touched

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Speaker 2: fourteen at times. Over under is come down. I think

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Speaker 2: it's sitting at around forty eight and a half. I

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Speaker 2: like Florida here. Anything over two touchdowns is fine. I

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Speaker 2: make it right around smidge less than two touchdowns before

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Speaker 2: the Bowers injury. Bowers is definitely worth I think a

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Speaker 2: couple points. They have a really good backup tight end

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Speaker 2: in Oscar delt Obviously, I mean, it's Georgia, you're gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to but he's not Rock Bowers and Brock

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Speaker 2: Bowers not only had what a quarter of the receptions

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Speaker 2: for the team this year, he's had I think close

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Speaker 2: to thirty percent of the touchdowns. The attention that he draws,

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Speaker 2: I think is massive, and it just opens up so

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Speaker 2: many other things for Georgia's offense. Both teams coming off

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Speaker 2: of bye, So what does that mean? All right, Well,

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Speaker 2: George's gonna make some adjustments on offense. We'll see if

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Speaker 2: they get healthier along the offensive line. We'll see if

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Speaker 2: Mims can play. Their starting right tackle has been banged up,

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Speaker 2: and we'll see if he can go one hundred percent

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Speaker 2: of snaps and if he's healthy. But what I you know,

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Speaker 2: you'll see some adjustments from this Georgia offense. But I

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Speaker 2: also think you're going to see some adjustments from this

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Speaker 2: Florida defense. I have a ton of respect for Austin Armstrong.

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Speaker 2: What is his M His M is being super aggressive.

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Speaker 2: He wants to like at Southern Mess And look, we've

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Speaker 2: seen the drop off in the Southern Miss defense. He

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Speaker 2: was at one of the highest blitz rates in all

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Speaker 2: of college football. They're an aggressive defense this year, which

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Speaker 2: is why they allow a ton of explosive plays. But

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna come out here and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: run a lot of blitzes, a lot of simulated pressures,

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Speaker 2: and they're gonna try to confuse Carson Beckis don't gonna

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Speaker 2: pick in three straight games. If you look at Carson

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Speaker 2: Beck when he's not blitzed, he hasn't been sacked all year,

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Speaker 2: but when he has been blitzed, his pressure to sack

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Speaker 2: rate is close to I think twenty eight percent. You

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Speaker 2: have to bring pressure, and you're gonna have to live

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Speaker 2: with some of the explosive plays they're gonna have. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna do that anyway. So I think Armstrong is gonna

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Speaker 2: be super aggressive. He's gonna force back into a mistake

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Speaker 2: or two. But it's it's really the other side of

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Speaker 2: the ball is that I think Florida. Look, Florida's offense

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Speaker 2: has been much better than I had projected them, think

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Speaker 2: anyone has projected. I mean, Graham Mertz is completing close

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Speaker 2: to three quarters of his passes, he only has two interceptions,

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Speaker 2: twelve touchdowns. He's been super efficient. I think that this

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Speaker 2: offense has found something of late. And what I think

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Speaker 2: that they're gonna do here, and that's part of what

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Speaker 2: you want to project is I think they're gonna go

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Speaker 2: heavy twelve personnel. It's been their best package from a

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Speaker 2: success rate by far, and I think that they're gonna

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Speaker 2: You're gonna give Etn the ball a lot and there's

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Speaker 2: been just look, if you look at this Georgia defense

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Speaker 2: and their offense, their metrics are all elite. Obviously they're

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Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the country, but they've

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Speaker 2: played a laughable schedule. I had their schedule ranked outside

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Speaker 2: the top one hundred. Florida's best shot at moving the

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Speaker 2: ball is twelve personnel, go heavy, get extra blockers in there,

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Speaker 2: while you have still have all of your best skill

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Speaker 2: position players in That would be etn Ricky Pearsll, your

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Speaker 2: best receiver, Arles Boardingham, You're a pass catching tight end

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Speaker 2: who's a stud. He's going to be a player. And

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Speaker 2: then freshman wide receiver Eugene Wilson, who's really come on

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Speaker 2: of late. They've shown it a bit using him in

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Speaker 2: the running game a little bit with end arounds. I

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Speaker 2: think that they're going to get a little exotic with

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Speaker 2: how they use him and then merks his legs like

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Speaker 2: he can use his legs a little bit. He's not

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Speaker 2: the most moment, neither was Peyton Thorn. Georgia struggled with

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Speaker 2: any quarterback that can just move extending drives. I think

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Speaker 2: that there's a path here for Florida. This game will

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Speaker 2: also be played at a sales pace, So like trying

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Speaker 2: to cover to you know, fourteen and a half, asking

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Speaker 2: Georgia to win by Martin. They've really only done that once.

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Speaker 2: They've covered one game all year. Why part of that

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Speaker 2: is this team comes out sleepy every week except for

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Speaker 2: the time that I everyone assumed that they were fired

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Speaker 2: between the hedges against Kentucky after an embarrassing performance against Auburn.

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Speaker 2: Other than that, there are other games this year twenty

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Speaker 2: four to twenty four. At the end of the first quarter,

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Speaker 2: they've scored twenty four points. Their opponents have scored twenty

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Speaker 2: four points. We are talking you t Martin, Ball State,

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Speaker 2: South Carolina, UAB, Auburn, and Vandy. I think they stayed

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Speaker 2: within two touchdown here. I think they can even give

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Speaker 2: him a scare. And your boy, Billy Napier, he's the

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Speaker 2: dog God scared money, don't make money.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: He is nineteen and six against the spread as an underdog,

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Speaker 2: seventy six percent, covering by over a touchdown per game,

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Speaker 2: three to zero against the spread as an underdog against

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Speaker 2: ranked SEC fos during a short time in Gainesville. One

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Speaker 2: of the reasons for that, as you know all too well,

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Speaker 2: he won't stop scoring, and he'll keep trying to score

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Speaker 2: at the end, So you better believe they're down seventeen

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. Wait, old Billy, Oh, sumb up Billy.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna still be trying to go for that touchdown

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Speaker 2: to get in the back door to keep this within

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns. What's say you?

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Speaker 1: No one's cost me more money over the years than

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Speaker 1: the head coach of Florida. But I like everything you said.

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Speaker 1: I agree with everything you said, except I'm focused more

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Speaker 1: on the total. I love the over as one of

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Speaker 1: the first plays I made. Forty eight is an extremely

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Speaker 1: key number. I would try to get that at forty eight.

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Speaker 1: I see it's about split half and half in the

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Speaker 1: market as we're recording this, forty eight and a halves

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Speaker 1: and forty eight. So and I'll echo a couple of

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Speaker 1: other things you said. The loss of bron Bauers paves

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Speaker 1: the way for Dominic love it. You know the transfer

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Speaker 1: slot that came in from Missouri last year. I think

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Speaker 1: he's really kind of been a forgotten man in this offense.

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Speaker 1: But he has thirty catches in one TV and he

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Speaker 1: has one point eight yards per route run. Well, two

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Speaker 1: is really where you need to be the measurement if

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Speaker 1: you're an explosive target or not. People forget that. For Missouri,

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Speaker 1: he was two point nine yards per route run last year.

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Speaker 1: He's an extremely explosive slot target, and I think he

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Speaker 1: picks up a lot of the things, a lot of

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Speaker 1: the routes that Bowers had, especially when they move from

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Speaker 1: twelve down to eleven formation. The Gators have been fantastic

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Speaker 1: against the rush, their top ten success rate in EPA.

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Speaker 2: And you know Florida's not really running the ball because

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Speaker 2: they have injuries that the offensive line running back. Their

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Speaker 2: running game has been underwhelming against against the laughable schedule too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's why you know, to tag

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Speaker 1: onto what you said. The defensive cordingont Austin Armstrong. He's

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Speaker 1: going to be running heavy blitz multiple personnel. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they line up in so many different personnels, you know,

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Speaker 1: nickel dime packages depending on down and distance that I

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Speaker 1: believe it's going to lead to a lot of Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck passing. Florida runs a Cover three. Carson Beck has

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Speaker 1: had one hundred and forty one snaps against that, above

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Speaker 1: average numbers and success rate and explosives against Cover three

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Speaker 1: Beck also in deep passing, passing attempts over twenty yards

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Speaker 1: nine to one ratio, and big time throws versus turnover

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Speaker 1: worthy plays. Now you flip the other side and you

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Speaker 1: mentioned this Florida offense and you have to really the

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Speaker 1: first stat that got me kind of hooked onto them

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Speaker 1: that I think they can or points is that they're

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Speaker 1: twelfth in the nation and on target rate, on target

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Speaker 1: being does your target, your wide receiver, whatever, do they

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Speaker 1: break stride do? They absolutely not have to do anything

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Speaker 1: when the pass is thrown to them, so accurately they

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Speaker 1: just keep going. Graham Martz is twelfth in the nation,

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Speaker 1: but also he's the shortest passer in the nation, like

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Speaker 1: is the lowest average depth of target. That plays perfectly

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Speaker 1: against the Georgia defense because they play a ton of

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Speaker 1: quarters where it's essentially like man disguised as zone but

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Speaker 1: it's back off the line of scrimmage against the Georgia

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Speaker 1: defense that only sends three to try to get a

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Speaker 1: creative pass rush. That's why their pass rush number is

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Speaker 1: so low because they which is.

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Speaker 2: Huge because Florida's offensive line in pass blocking hasn't been great.

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Speaker 1: Florida, there's an avenue for Florida to move the ball.

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Speaker 1: There's an avenue for Florida to score points. And if

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Speaker 1: Georgia's sleeping, then they're gonna get theirs. And I think

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Speaker 1: Georgia is gonna at some point turn it on. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna be more explosive, more vertical in eleven, not twelve.

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Speaker 1: So I like the over here, but forty eight is

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Speaker 1: definitely the number.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the only thing I'd be worried about with the

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Speaker 2: over is just the pace. But I do there are

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Speaker 2: some avenues for both offenses to hit some explosives, and

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Speaker 2: that's really what you want. Florida's defense has given up

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Speaker 2: a ton of explosives, and that's really what you want

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Speaker 2: when you're betting it over, especially at a key number

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Speaker 2: of forty eight. Chomp, chump. Let's go Gators and let's

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Speaker 2: win outright for some chaos for my Georgia win total

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Speaker 2: under and to set up a banger on the post

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Speaker 2: dan Enos Hogs next week in swamp. Wouldn't that be nice?

365
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Speaker 2: We're betting it no matter what the spot of all spots.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our second marquee matchup

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Speaker 2: of the day. Let's talk a little pac twelve Oregon

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Speaker 2: at Utah. You tells a six and a half point

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Speaker 2: home dog over under forty seven and a half. This

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Speaker 2: game obviously has massive implications that pack tweve. Both teams

371
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Speaker 2: are sitting at six and one on the season with

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Speaker 2: their one loss coming in conference. This is also an elimination.

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Speaker 2: This is basically an elimination game for the Pac twelve title.

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Speaker 2: This is death finitely in an elimination game for the

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Speaker 2: college football playoffs. And I look, when I look at

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Speaker 2: this game, it's it's hard for me to project what

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Speaker 2: the Utah offense is going to be because it was

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Speaker 2: so anemic and they haven't gotten Cam rising back or

379
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Speaker 2: Koothi their tight end. But the last two games have

380
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Speaker 2: been really good. But it was against Cal and USC.

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Speaker 2: I know put Vaki, who's been amazing moving him from

382
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Speaker 2: safety to running back. He's provided some juice to the offense.

383
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Speaker 2: But this is a big step up in class against

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Speaker 2: Oregon's defense. But I just at this number. I can't

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Speaker 2: get to this number. And what did I tell you

386
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Speaker 2: three weeks ago? I said, when you took you bet,

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Speaker 2: UCLA said, just don't don't bet, you don't fade U

388
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Speaker 2: taught home. It's just not or whitting him as a dog,

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Speaker 2: and I did that last week. But you taught home

390
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Speaker 2: there is so much voodoo in this stadium. And then

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Speaker 2: you have these two horses that are gonna meet. Now,

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Speaker 2: he's been better this year, but he's still rode Bo

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Speaker 2: Nicks Road Bow Knicks meets Rice Ecles Voodoo. What's gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: Let's say you.

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Speaker 1: Utah is gonna cover this game. And I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: this number is way too high. I thought it should

397
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Speaker 1: be three. It opened three, it got blasted up to six,

398
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Speaker 1: six and a half, and I get it. I get

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Speaker 1: the reason.

400
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Speaker 2: Touch seven.

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00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it touched seven. I grabbed it at seven. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna promote everybody go ohut and get that

403
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 1: because it's not there anymore. But when it once it

404
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 1: hits seven, I'm like, come on, this is rice Ecles.

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Speaker 1: This is a team that's having a you know, a

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Speaker 1: cocoon butterfly type metamorphosis into a different offense. And that's

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Speaker 1: why you can't really cite any of the stats that

408
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Speaker 1: Utah has put up for the season. I mean their

409
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Speaker 1: offense is completely changing. With the pig farmer Brice Carts. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I guess I'll start with Orgon first. I

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Speaker 1: mean bo Nix has a nineteen to one TD to

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Speaker 1: iron T ratio. He trails Michael Pennix by about four

413
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Speaker 1: hundred passing yard, So this is really his shot to

414
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Speaker 1: get backack end of the Heisman if he wins this.

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Speaker 1: I was vocal about this on the New BCS, and

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Speaker 1: I'll continue to be vocal about it. If Oregon gets

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Speaker 1: through this game, they should be in the PACTLD Championship

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Speaker 1: and they should be contending for a national title. That

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Speaker 1: schedule is conducive to them sweeping out. So we'll see

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Speaker 1: both Bucky Irving and Jordan James average at least seven

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Speaker 1: point five per carry. And you know, the only place

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Speaker 1: to attack the Morgan Scalley four two five defense is

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Speaker 1: with the pass. I don't think Irving and James are

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Speaker 1: going to be that big of a factor in this

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Speaker 1: game because Utah is so good against the run, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to go up against this pass. It gives

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Speaker 1: up explosives. They are one hundred and third defensive pass

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Speaker 1: epa best overall defensive success rate in passing downs, but

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Speaker 1: there's sixty ninth and limiting explosives. So if Bo Nix

430
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 1: gets behind the chains, he's gonna be able to throw

431
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: for some chunk yards here. Utah runs a Cover one

432
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 1: and a Cover three. Talked about that exclusively against Caleb

433
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: Williams and it showed. But Nix hits a ton of

434
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 1: explosives against Cover one, moderate success rate against those, but

435
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: explosives come against Cover one, So I expect to see that,

436
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: and I think Oregon's gonna get stuffed with the line

437
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: of scrimmage, so that's when you'll see it. Organ is

438
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 1: the top overall offense and on target rate. I mentioned

439
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,360
Speaker 1: on target before with Graham Martz, but he throws behind

440
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, so much of course you're gonna

441
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: have a high on target rate. That's not the same

442
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 1: for bo Nicks. So bo Nicks has been extremely accurate

443
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: this year. Now, Utah runs a heavy amount of inside

444
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: zone on their offense, but their twelve personnel they love

445
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: to just get you in that phone booth and just

446
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: box you around. And I mentioned Brian Bryson Barnes, the

447
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: Pig Farmer quarterback. I the fact that I was mentioned

448
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: in the same sense as the Heisman Trophy winner is

449
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,199
Speaker 1: still the quote of the year. And then defensive back

450
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: Seoni Baki. You mentioned, you know, he he's catching balls,

451
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: he's running balls, He's still playing like we don't know

452
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 1: if he's more value. He's the true Travis Hunter, right.

453
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: All the talk coming into the year is Travis Unter.

454
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: It's really Cooni Baki and you know running back Jaquindin

455
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 1: Jackson and Utah their top thirty and stuff rate and lineyards.

456
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 1: I think they're going to have some success running the

457
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: ball here. Oregon really has issues tackling in space. They're

458
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: one hundred and tenth and broken tackles allowed. That means

459
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: once they get a guy right up, they seem to

460
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 1: let them go. So to me, this is a grind

461
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: of a game. To me, this is a This is

462
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: a coin flip pick them where I think Utah wins

463
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: by a field goal or some crazy two point conversion

464
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 1: or a field goal at the last second to win

465
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 1: by two. I think this game is dead even there's

466
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 1: way too many points involved in this game. If Oregon

467
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: wins this, they are in line for the Pactuel Championship

468
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: and a potential shot at the Playoff.

469
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 2: Bow next season.

470
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,400
Speaker 1: Then full effect.

471
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 2: Should be interesting to see how Roadbow knicks performs in

472
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 2: right deacles. I can't wait to watch that one. Let's

473
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 2: talk one final marquee matchup in the ACC Duke after

474
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: that Florida State loss, I mean, they're packed, they're ACC hopes,

475
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: they still have hopes of winning the ACC. They sit

476
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 2: at five and two in the season. They will take

477
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: on Louisville, who also is in that discussion, at six

478
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: and one. From a spot perspective, this is a pretty

479
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: decent spot for Louisville. They're getting Duke, you know, second

480
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: straight road game after Florida State, a game that Duke

481
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: actually led twenty to seventeen before Riley Leonard went out

482
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: with an injury. Louisvill's at two weeks to kind of

483
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 2: stew over that pit loss. But I just didn't think

484
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 2: Louislle was any good. They were kind of fraudulent all season.

485
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: This game is and look, if you look at Louisvie's

486
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 2: advanced matters, one thing that jumps off the pages their explosiveness,

487
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: Like they're passing explosiveness, but you're not really going to

488
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 2: get a passing exposiveness against the Mike Elco defense. And

489
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 2: that's once again the case this year with Duke. Their

490
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: secondary has been excellent. You can run on them a bit,

491
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: But Duar Jordan, his status is uncertain. Louis's running back.

492
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 2: This game is just hard for me to bet because

493
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: I don't know the status of Riley Leonard, and even

494
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 2: if I did, I don't know how healthy he'll be,

495
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 2: and his legs are so critical to everything Duke wants

496
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: to do. Given that uncertainty, given that, I think this

497
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: line is too high. Based on my projections, Duke's definitely

498
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 2: gonna make it into the round robin and they're a

499
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 2: good money line underdog shot because of that uncertainty, And

500
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: I think this game should be more like a coin

501
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: flip if everyone was healthy. What do you see here

502
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 2: in a Top twenty matchup between Duke and Louisville.

503
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: Well, let me speak to a bet that we're involved

504
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 1: with that's on a larger scale. All we could talk

505
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: about in the offseason was Louisville's schedule was a joke,

506
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: and we knew that there's a new coach with an

507
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: old quarterback and they're going to try to make this

508
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: offense work. But the schedule was so soft. There's no

509
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: way that this team can't do X, Y and Z.

510
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: So Colin went off and took like a flyer on

511
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,719
Speaker 1: undefeated season. Listen, the big bet that all of us

512
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 1: got before the season started was Louisville on the win total.

513
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't matter if you got seven and

514
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: a half eight, It doesn't matter where that number fell.

515
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: I think everybody who's listening probably got a piece of

516
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 1: the Louisville over This game is paramount to that number.

517
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: And depending on how much you laid on it, this

518
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: is an extremely important game. And Stuck's right, I make

519
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: this game Louisville minus one. That four that you see

520
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: out in the market, that's reflective of Riley Leonard being doubtful.

521
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: It's going to move based on what his final status

522
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 1: is going to be, you can tell, like I mean it.

523
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 2: And also but also, as I said before, even if

524
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 2: he does play, the part of the line is that,

525
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: like he might not be able finished skin, he also

526
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 2: might not be one hundred percent mobile, So like that's

527
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 2: that's influencing the line as well.

528
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 1: Duke had Florida stayed up against the wall and until

529
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 1: Riley Leonard got hurt and he just could not you know,

530
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: even move. I mean I think he was going to

531
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: stay on there as long as he had a pulse,

532
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: he was going to be out there. That's when Florida

533
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 1: State made their roaring comeback and covered the spread. In

534
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: this game, you have to ask, well Jack Plumber have

535
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: success throwing against the Duke secondary that's top ten and

536
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: coverage Elko runs a Cover three and Cover one on

537
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 1: sixty percent. Plumber's over fifty percent success rate against both

538
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: of those. He's got a little bit of explosiveness against

539
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: Cover three. So I'm not really worried about those coverage numbers.

540
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: But offensive finishing drives has been an issue for Louisville

541
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 1: all season. They're eighty fourth in the nation. They average

542
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: three point six points on forty drives that have crossed

543
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: the opponent forty ard line. That's just not good enough.

544
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: All of these numbers inside Louisville make me a little uncomfortable.

545
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: The fact that they're one hundred and twenty ninth and

546
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: passing downs on defense, defending explosives, that's a little scary

547
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 1: no matter who we get at quarterback for Duke. So

548
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Stuck, this is a round robin

549
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: play regardless of Riley Leonard plays. If he doesn't play,

550
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: I still think it belongs in there. You will definitely

551
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: see a play come through the app as a hedge

552
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: to the Louisville win total on the season because they

553
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: have to have this one if they're going to get

554
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: over that number.

555
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, big game in the ACNC Florida State. Since it's

556
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: five to zero, you would assume that they end up

557
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: in the ACC Championship top two teams. Go. All right,

558
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 2: let's get to a little rapid fire hit some of

559
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: these other interesting games. But before we do, reminder that

560
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 2: the NBA season has officially tipped off. So if you

561
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 2: like betting the NBA, be sure to check out Buckets

562
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: Action Networks basketball betting podcasts with new episodes every single

563
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 2: weekday this NBA season. And again is Buckets available wherever

564
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 2: you like to listen every day of the season. The

565
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,719
Speaker 2: season is like ten months, so yeah, listen, give our

566
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 2: make it worth it for our producers. That's a lot

567
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 2: of work. All right, let's get to some rapid fire.

568
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 2: Rapid fire, all right, let's talk. Let's go back to

569
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: the big twelve. Let's talk about Oklahoma. Kansas. Oklahoma is

570
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: sitting around the ten point favorite. It's starting to come

571
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: down a little bit and at in Lawrence for homecoming.

572
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 2: I love Kansas here. I think that this Oklahoma team

573
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: is still overvalued in the market. They're getting too much

574
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: credit for that Texas win. Remember three to zero turnovers,

575
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: they had a goal line stand. Texas has the game

576
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 2: won if they knew how to manage a clock, then

577
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 2: they played prevent defense. So Golhoma team's also been extremely

578
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: fortunate when it comes to turnovers and got plus ten

579
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: turnover margin. What would coach Venables say about this?

580
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 3: To me, it's not like, oh, everything's great. No, everything

581
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: ain't great, but you know what, that's good. That's a

582
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: good thing. Okay, good, good, that's good.

583
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 2: The rushing attack is broken. They can't run the ball.

584
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: There's issues on the offensive line. That's Their passing game

585
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 2: has been great. The schedule has been pretty easy. There's

586
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 2: some misleading scores like the Texas game. The CINCI game,

587
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,959
Speaker 2: it was like dead even statistically the SMU game. It's

588
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: a coin flip, but tend to go. So I think

589
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 2: this team is overrided in the market. They're also miss

590
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: Andrew Anthony. They're leading receiver who's out for the year.

591
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: You saw that last week against ucf As.

592
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: I've told the team several times. I've been on my

593
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: knees plenty in this profession.

594
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: I don't think Jalen Daniel is going to play. Maybe

595
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 2: it's a Troy Calhoun situation. Maybe he does play. This

596
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 2: is just playing around with Oklahoma and Brett Benables. By

597
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: the way, Oklahoma' special teams are a disaster. I have

598
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: them rated outside the top one hundred on the season.

599
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: And guess what Lancelet Bleipold has done in Lawrence fixed

600
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: the special teams. Remember how disastrous the Kansas special teams

601
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 2: used to be, Like I would bet them and then

602
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: they would have They would give up like three punt

603
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 2: returns for touchdown, they would have a punt blocked, missed

604
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 2: seven field goals and lose by I have their special

605
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: teams top ten in the country this year. He's done

606
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: a tremendous job there. But it is a great spot

607
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: for Kansas. Look, they had to buy Oklahoma Oklahoma State

608
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 2: on deck. There's certain teams that I value buys for

609
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: more than others, and Kansas has won because I love

610
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 2: their staff so much. I love their head coach, I

611
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 2: love their offensive coordinator. Two weeks to prepare and assuming

612
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: Daniels doesn't go Bean who's played Oklahoma each of the

613
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: past years, and they put up forty two. They lost

614
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 2: fifty two to forty two. Less Er in Norman with

615
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 2: being starting two weeks to get him used to the

616
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 2: offense right, he started one game where he learned he

617
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 2: was starting that Saturday morning. What does that mean? You're

618
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: not running with the ones. The game plan's not built

619
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: for you all week, So you have two weeks to

620
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 2: prepare here, there's a guy who's won in the past.

621
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: You have to attack Oklahoma through the air. Their run

622
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: defense numbers are legit, and I think that's how Kansas

623
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: will attack here, a lot of motion. There's a tough

624
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 2: team to prepare for, especially with two weeks prepared, so

625
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 2: you can expect some new looks. I think they jump

626
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: out early on Oklahoma, make this a fight till the end.

627
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 2: Oklahoma's going to score. The Kansas defense is bad like that.

628
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 2: I'm not going to sit here and tout the Kansas defense,

629
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 2: but I think Kansas can keep up. I think they're

630
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: going to build a lead early and then they'll be

631
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: able to keep up, similar to last year in a

632
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 2: game that had about ninety four total points. So I

633
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 2: like Kansas here get that ten or better. But let's

634
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 2: go rock chalk. What do you got here? Do you

635
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:24,719
Speaker 2: agree or disagree?

636
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: I hate to say I'm flipping from what I said

637
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: on the New BCS, Like if Jalen Daniels was playing

638
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: for Kansas, I'd feel much more comfortable laying them. But

639
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 1: the fact that it's Jason being You're right, he's playing

640
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: with the ones now. But it's just it's less explosives,

641
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: it's less of a thread on the ground, it's less

642
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: it's less of everything that Jalen Daniels does.

643
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 2: Now.

644
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: Jason Bean doesn't make a whole bunch of mistakes. He's

645
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: pretty even on big time throws, a turnover, worthy plays.

646
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: But there's just some stats on Kansas and I cannot

647
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: get over it. And you know, can they upset them?

648
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: Oklahoma has won eighteen straight. They generally dominate this Bliphold's

649
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: had some issues. You know, there's a ton of points

650
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: scored last year, but that could never depo you from

651
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,719
Speaker 1: gaining available yards. And I think that's what this game is.

652
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: It's an available yards bonanza. That's good if you don't

653
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: know what available yards is, like, if you line up

654
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: on the twenty, you have eighty possible available yards. I

655
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: think both these offenses are going to go up and

656
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: down the field, collecting as many available yards as possible.

657
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: But KU's four two to five defense that runs quarters

658
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: in cover three, it's been horrific. KU's defense has been obliterated.

659
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: When opponents are in scoring position. They're one hundred and

660
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: twenty fourth defensively and finishing drives. They're dead last in

661
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: red zone efficiency. So I was there this week until

662
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: I found out that all twenty seven red zone trips

663
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: by Kansas opponents have ended up being a score. It's inevitable.

664
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: Like you get into the red zone, you're getting points.

665
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: I'm switching a little bit just because of the red

666
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: zone numbers and the finishing drives numbers for Kansas's defense

667
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: are abominal.

668
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 3: That's a good thing.

669
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 2: I disagree, and I would make the argument that Kansas

670
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: is do so look for a Gabriel red zone pick

671
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: and then more missed field goals from their struggling kicker.

672
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Kentucky, Tennessee in the SEC.

673
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: This game we played seven Eastern in my backyard. Kentucky

674
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: three and a half win underdog at home in my backyard.

675
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 2: I have some people coming into town staying with me,

676
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: will be out for this game. It'll be fun. I

677
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: love Kentucky here. I think this number one. This is

678
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 2: a phenomenal spot. They're coming off of a bye I

679
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 2: mentioned why that's even more important than a bit, while

680
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: Tennessee is coming off Texas a and m emotional win

681
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 2: at Alabama, playing for your season, keeping all the hopes alive,

682
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: physical game, you're up at the half and you get

683
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: demolished in the second half. Now you're playing second straight

684
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: road game, third straight SEC game. From a rest perspective,

685
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 2: From a health perspective, Tennessee's top corners questionable. Kentucky's going

686
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: to get a couple starting defenders back, and so the

687
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: edge of Kentucky here from a spot perspective. Also, over

688
00:33:57,800 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: these two weeks, I know a lot of people close

689
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: to so I get reports and they're always honest. Like

690
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 2: sometimes it's like this is a disaster. Everything is looking

691
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: a lot better, most importantly well one with the offensive

692
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: line getting healthier, but with Leary's mechanical issue and his

693
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: post injured. Apparently like the time off has done a

694
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: lot of good. So we'll see if you can be

695
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 2: more accurate. We'll see if they can stop the drops.

696
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 2: Because when you know, when I look at this matchup,

697
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 2: pretty similar teams, right, they both are really good running

698
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 2: the ball, they both can stop the run, and neither

699
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: of them can really pass. You have Joe Milton the pumpkin,

700
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: you have Devin Leary. You can't hit the broad side

701
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 2: of the barn. I had a friend as a photographer.

702
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 2: You got hit in the head with a ball that

703
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: Leary misfired. So you know, these are really similar profile teams.

704
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: I make this closer to a pick. I love the

705
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 2: spot for Kentucky. I'm hearing really good reports about the

706
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: offensive line, Leary, some of the things they've been working

707
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 2: on over the past two weeks. So and look, Tennessee.

708
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: While their run defense has been good, they're outside the

709
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 2: top one hundred and rush explosiveness. What does that mean?

710
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 2: Ray Davis is probably gonna hit one or two big

711
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: throws here. And how do you move the ball against Kentucky?

712
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: You you can throw it on them, right, their defense

713
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 2: has been great all year. And then what did Missouri do?

714
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: They threw all over them. Georgia threw all over them.

715
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: I don't trust Joe Milton to methodically move the ball

716
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: down the field. He's had one good half all year.

717
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 2: He is not accurate enough to do that, and they're

718
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: not in Kentucky doesn't allow explosives still, that's just a

719
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 2: staple of their defense. So and look, the Tennessee rushing

720
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 2: offense with right Small and Samson has been really good.

721
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: They're averaging six yards per carry over two hundred tens.

722
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: But they're only two road games against two other strong

723
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: rundees forty six rushes one hundred and seventy two yards.

724
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 2: That's three point seven yards per carry. Their overall season

725
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: average top five that in those two games would be

726
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred. So I really like this matchup.

727
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: I really like some of the I'm hearing about Kentucky.

728
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: I think this offense is going to have some more juice,

729
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: and especially early on, you can expect some new wrinkles.

730
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 2: And with the spot and matchup, I have to take

731
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 2: over a field goal here for what it's worth. Mark

732
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: Stuke's twenty eleven and one against the spread against ranked opponents,

733
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 2: including eight and one as a favored or underdog of

734
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: a touchdown or less, give me the Cats here to

735
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 2: get back on track against Tennessee team that I haven't

736
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 2: believed in all year, and Jimmy Kentucky here, you and.

737
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 1: I are gonna go at it this weekend.

738
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 2: Wish that.

739
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: Tennessee.

740
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: You're on Tennessee.

741
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: I like Tennessee in this game. And again, I haven't

742
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: made a bet. I want three, I'm not going to

743
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 1: get three. Looks like it's either gonna stick a three

744
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: and a half org go the other way. O. God,

745
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 1: I know I know.

746
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: Tennessee, that you're back in Tennessee and Oklahoma, these two

747
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: teams that we have been fading in said are fadeable.

748
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: I know. Well, I mean the Tennessee fans should be happy, right,

749
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 1: I mean, after all that summer stuff about how I

750
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 1: don't know how the hell you get over your win total,

751
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 1: they'll be happy that I'm going to I think I'm

752
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: prettyure I'm gonna play me here. I just don't know

753
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: how I'm going to play them. So listen, we're not

754
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: a trends podcast. As a competitive podcast that they they

755
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,959
Speaker 1: make all their bets on trends. It's ridiculous. But one

756
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: that really popped into my mind was what stoops is

757
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: off of buy because it just feels like that's stuck

758
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 1: in my head. So I went and looked it up.

759
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: He's covered five of seventeen games after a buye since

760
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen. It just there are some coaches that utilize

761
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: buys differently, whether it's relaxed or structured, Andy Reid, Mark

762
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: Stoops whatever. Right, Kentucky's not been good after a bye

763
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: week since twenty fifteen. That's I mean, that's been going

764
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: on forever. And so when I think about that, you know,

765
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 1: I'm not going to dive into what Kentucky's doing in

766
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: their free time. But when I look at the x's

767
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 1: and o's in this, can the Tennessee defense contain Kentucky's

768
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: one big thing that they do on offense, which is

769
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: ground explosives with Ray Davis, I think the answer is yes.

770
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: I mean the volunteers are six, then rush EPA allowed

771
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: top thirty five and stuff right their eleventh in line yards,

772
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: doesn't I mean their strength of schedule is twenty second,

773
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 1: is top twenty five? I mean that would make me

774
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 1: think that they're gonna be able to stop the one

775
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: thing that the offense can do. Now if Devin Larry

776
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: just pops up and it's like the best version of him.

777
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 1: I can't handicap that I haven't seen it all year,

778
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 1: been really bad reports about the torn peck and all

779
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: that good stuff. So I mean, if that happens, fine

780
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: take my money because I haven't seen it all year.

781
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 1: But the question that I also have because I'm not

782
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: a Joe Milton fan, never have been scared the shit

783
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: out of me in the first half against Alabama to

784
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: threatens some of those throws and running. When did Ji

785
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 1: Joe Milton become a runner. But the question is can

786
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: you have success throwing against the Kentucky defense. Kentucky's defense

787
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 1: is seventieth and defending pass explosives they're fifty eighth. Then

788
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: coverage so nothing spectacular here in Kentucky's strength of schedule

789
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 1: is sixtieth, much lower than Tennessee's. Kentucky plays exclusively in

790
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 1: cover three. Milton has had a career average success or

791
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: an EPA against cover three. He really thrives and cover one,

792
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: but he's not gonna get it here. He's gonna get

793
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: cover three. So Tennessee covering the three and a half,

794
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for a three. But more important, I think

795
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: this is going to be a first half bet like

796
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 1: a first half money line bet for me a little

797
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: bit juiced. If Kentucky can't get it together after a

798
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: bye week, which historically they can't, and Tennessee is going

799
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: to show up because of what happened against Alabama, first

800
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 1: half is the way to play. So I haven't made

801
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:18,879
Speaker 1: a decision yet where I'm going. If I get a three,

802
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 1: I'll play the full game. If not, I'm gonna go

803
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 1: first half.

804
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 2: I will be ready to fire Milton pictures to you

805
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 2: in Kentucky.

806
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: My Twitter will be ready for you if I when

807
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: I make the bet and put the money that I'll

808
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: be ready for you.

809
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 2: Let's go to the big ten Ohio State at Wisconsin.

810
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: I don't really have a strong feel here. Basically, it

811
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 2: comes down to how many times can Coyle McCord stare

812
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 2: at and hit Marvin Harrison basically, which is the Ohio

813
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 2: State offense. They can't really run the ball, but their

814
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 2: defense should shut down Wisconsin. Fourteen and a half point

815
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 2: favorite here over under forty five and a half. Maybe

816
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 2: a little Ohio State hangover after that Penn State win.

817
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 2: I don't really have any interest here. I think I

818
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 2: saw you bet Wisconsin. I think I saw that come

819
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 2: through in the app. What's your case here, I.

820
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: Make it twelve. I think fourteen and a half is

821
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: too high. I mean, there's a lot of optimism with

822
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 1: Ohio State for Trevion Henderson, like Buca, Denzel Burk's going

823
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 1: to be back on defense. But you know, one of

824
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: the places that Ohio State struggles is in the red zone,

825
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: and Devin Brown is out, it takes away some of

826
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: the red zone packages, so I don't have to find

827
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 1: a way to score points when they get closer to

828
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: the goal line. The numbers are pretty similar from a

829
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 1: rushing perspective with these two teams. When Ohio State's running

830
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: the ball with lineyard stuff rate, success rate, they have

831
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: the same strength to schedule, same metrics. So I'm not

832
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 1: sure Ohio State's going to have a lot of success

833
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 1: running the ball here. At least the numbers say that

834
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: they won't. Ohio States they run outside zone twice as

835
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 1: much as they do inside zone. Wisconsin is national average

836
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: and really good at defending inside zone and outside zone

837
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: success rate from an EPA level. So Kyle mcord is

838
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: going to have to take the air here because I

839
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: don't think Ohio State is going to be able to

840
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,879
Speaker 1: generate enough of a rush to get them a lot

841
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: of first downs. That's where the Wisconsin defense thrives. They

842
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: run a ton of Cover one and they're better in

843
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 1: secondary coverage than they are against the rush. And McCord's

844
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: average success rate in the low EPA against Cover one

845
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: this season, So that's an advantage for Wisconsin on that

846
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,919
Speaker 1: side of the ball. When you go to the other side,

847
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,399
Speaker 1: you know the Braidon Locke, I mean Braidon Lock kid

848
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: is a little bit tough diagnosed. He's had four turnover

849
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: worthy plays and an i INT against Iowa, two tds

850
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: against Illinois last week, and Illinois runs exclusively Cover one.

851
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: That's what Ohio State runs. So Braidon Lock had a

852
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 1: lot of success against the Illinois secondary running the same

853
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 1: coverage that Ohio State runs. But with Denzel Burke back,

854
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: it's a pretty huge git. Neither of these teams, and

855
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,879
Speaker 1: I think this is why I got on Wisconsin. Neither

856
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: of these teams have the explosiveness to blow out the other.

857
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: They just Ohio State's offense hasn't shown it. Wisconsin definitely

858
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: doesn't have it. Both of the defenses have the edge

859
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 1: and quality and finishing drives, so that leads me to

860
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 1: believe this game is going to be more of a

861
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: grind And yeah, I'm going to take fourteen and a

862
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: half points in a game like that. So hopefully it's

863
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: scary and Ohio State trips up and all the things

864
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: that we predicted about them happens. But there's just not

865
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: enough explosiveness from Ohio stayed for me to believe that

866
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: they can blow Wisconsin out on the road.

867
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if I had a bet, I would

868
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: be Wisconsin or nothing.

869
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: We're proud to be from Ohio, and it's always met

870
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: Ohio against the world. It'll continue to be Ohio against

871
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:12,760
Speaker 1: the world.

872
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 2: Moving on to the segments show Everyone's waiting for the

873
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: free money, Colin fade of his bet on the UCLA

874
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: game Ucla seventeen and a half points favorite at home

875
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 2: against Colorado coming off of a bye over under sixty

876
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: two and a half quarterback on certainty for UCLA. I

877
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: know you like the back you say when Dante Moore

878
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: starts when they don't cover, and then fade them when

879
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: Dante Moore doesn't start when they do cover. So what

880
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:42,959
Speaker 2: do you see here?

881
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you're not gonna get anything out of

882
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,280
Speaker 1: Chip Kelly about who's playing here. He just Colin Slee's healthy.

883
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean he's gonna play. Ethan Garber's who don't know?

884
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just you're never gonna be able to

885
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 1: figure out who's playing quarterback here. This is such a

886
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: huge mismatch here. I mean, the Colorado offensive line is

887
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 1: allowing is allowed one hundred and twenty two pressures. This

888
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: the Murphy Twins and Latu Latu lining up on the

889
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: UCLA defensive line, It's gonna be bad. Shadara Sanders is

890
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 1: gonna be on the run. That doesn't mean that he

891
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: can't make plays, but he's gonna be flushed out of

892
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: the pocket on every single run. Colorado can't run the ball,

893
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:15,919
Speaker 1: so look for that there on that side of the ball.

894
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 1: But with Dante Moore, is he gonna throw another pick? Six?

895
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 1: Has cost me so much money this year. He's got

896
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 1: four i iNTS and clean dropbacks. He's got three i

897
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: iNTS and pressured pockets. It doesn't matter if he's pressured

898
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 1: or not. He's just throwing these interceptions like crazy. So

899
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: More has struggled with Cover three, and Colorado plays Cover three,

900
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: but they have very low marks and success or an EPA.

901
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 1: They're not good in coverage at all. So with Colorado

902
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: and UCLA running like twenty two to twenty three seconds

903
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,919
Speaker 1: per play, a healthy amount of possessions here, I don't

904
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 1: want to touch the seventeen because it's got back door

905
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: written all over. So what I played was UCLA over

906
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 1: forty and a half on their team total. Because every

907
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: game Colorado is in is a shootout, and you're gonna

908
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: give me two offenses that run twenty three seconds per

909
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: play or less, and at Colorado defense that can't defend explosives.

910
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 1: I'll take Ucla to get the forty one points.

911
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: Santa and I have time.

912
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: He got to deliver the gifts King at time to

913
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 1: enjoy his cookies.

914
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 2: Let's stay in the Pac twelve for the last rapid fire.

915
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 2: Maybe you disagree with me again here because I'm going

916
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 2: against my boys in Oregon State. This line just hit

917
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 2: three everywhere. I think it's going to keep going down.

918
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 2: Arizona is good. I don't know why the market doesn't

919
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 2: understand it. This team should be six and one. They

920
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: lost a usc and quadruple overtime. They lost to Mississippi

921
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 2: State due to turnover luck in overtime and their other

922
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 2: loss team by seven points against Washington. Noah Fafida is

923
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: the truth. He is. Look at his numbers. He's started

924
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 2: three games against top twenty opponents. He's twelve in QBR,

925
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 2: He's completing over seventy five percent of his passes, and

926
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: he just has a better command of the offense, makes

927
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: fewer turnover worthy throws than DeLaura. I hope that it's Fefida.

928
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: I hope that it's Fiefida moving forward. And this Oregon

929
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: State team just not the same. Away from Corvallis, they

930
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 2: played what two pack twelve road games, they go up

931
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: forty to thirty eight. They've also played what three straight

932
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: freshman quarterbacks like making their first start. It's it's not

933
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 2: been that aren't. They'ren't even the starting quarterbacks anymore. I

934
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 2: mean they face Noah Johnson in Utah, they face the

935
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 2: freshman and I mean it's been a very easy schedule

936
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 2: for Oregon State. And this Arizona offense, I mean they

937
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 2: have great receivers. The FETA is playing well, but it's

938
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 2: very balanced offense, and they can run the ball as well.

939
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 2: Oregon State not only are they vulnerable in the secondary,

940
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,320
Speaker 2: I mean they're bottom fifteen and rushed success rate allowed.

941
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 2: This is a deep rushing attack for Arizona. Arizona's gonna

942
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: move the ball well here. And an other side, the

943
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: Arizona defense is underrated, Like Arizona defense is better than

944
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,959
Speaker 2: the Oregon State defense, and they've been decent against the run,

945
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: which is what Oregon State wants to do. I mean, look,

946
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: this is this Arizona's winning this game. I'm sorry. It's

947
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 2: gonna hurt my Oregon State futures, but at least it's

948
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 2: gonna be really close. I think it comes down to

949
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: a field goal at the end. But I like Arizona.

950
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: I haven't been trying to get in front of Arizona

951
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: all year. I mean they've been hot. Jedfish I think

952
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 1: is not long for the job at Arizona because I

953
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 1: think an SEC team can come in and scoop him up.

954
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: I mean he I really hadn't spent any time, you know,

955
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 1: listening to jet Fish until I got to pack Twill

956
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: Media days, cash your tickets and he commands a room.

957
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 1: So it's just amazing to me what he's done with

958
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 1: this program. Now, the key stat in this game, because

959
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 1: I was really debating at like two and a half

960
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 1: of my buying Oregon State, Arizona is top ten and

961
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 1: defensive stuff rate what yeah, I mean against yeah what thirteenth?

962
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 1: And defensive line yards and by the way, stuck mentions

963
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 1: like Oregon State schedules e ninety third strike the schedule,

964
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: Arizona fifty third so and to.

965
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 2: Oregon State, some of those teams, like they faced quarterbacks

966
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 2: were no longer starting, yeah, like they faced Utah two.

967
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 1: There's two other stats that come out of Sports Info

968
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 1: solutions that like really favorite Arizona here. One of them is,

969
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 1: I've talked about it almost with every game is on

970
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 1: target rate? How good are you throwing the ball? No

971
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: matter who the quarterback has been, Arizona has been top

972
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:12,439
Speaker 1: ten and on target rate, Oregon State is eighty ninth,

973
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 1: And defensively and on target rate, they're not very good

974
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 1: in coverage. The one stat that really caught my eye

975
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: is that Arizona's fifth in the nation and broken tackles.

976
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: They create a lot of broken tackles and Oregon State

977
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 1: is horrible one hundred and thirty first and broken tackles

978
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: allowed on defense. I agree with you here. I haven't

979
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 1: put any money on it. I was kind of thinking

980
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,439
Speaker 1: maybe it gets too little to take Oregon State. But man,

981
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: you put these numbers up against each other, Wildcats are

982
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 1: They're on fire. Jetfish is going to be in the

983
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:42,760
Speaker 1: SEC or he's going to be in a high profile

984
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: job coming up soon.

985
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 2: Beare down that they only won that USCA. They went

986
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 2: for two, and then they should have been Misippi State.

987
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 2: They'd be in the mix for getting to the PAC

988
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: World Championship. His team is good people, poor against some trash.

989
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: Quick reminder, make sure you check out the group of

990
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 2: five guys Mike Calabresee and Mike i Andel Mike and Mike,

991
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 2: the group of five deep dive every Wednesday morning here

992
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: on BBOC talking all things. A group of five. I

993
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 2: think they like some San Jose State and New Mexico

994
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,879
Speaker 2: this week. They crushed it last week. Hopefully they can

995
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 2: keep it rolling. But they always do a good job

996
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: getting ready for the Group of five. All right, let's

997
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 2: move on to some trash.

998
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 1: The trash man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

999
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1000
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable. It that's it. You've been told on

1001
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 2: how do you like that good. It's not the most

1002
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,839
Speaker 2: if some people probably are going to exhale. I don't

1003
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 2: have a ton of the worst possible trash here. I

1004
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 2: think I will next week looking at the schedule based

1005
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 2: on some of my projections. But we'll see. We'll see

1006
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 2: what next week brings us. But let's start with let's

1007
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 2: go to Cincy. This line has gotten too high. This

1008
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 2: is your Bilo cell high spot of the week now

1009
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 2: that it hits seven above seven. Look, Oklahoma State's won

1010
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 2: three straight all is underdogs and Cincinnati's lost five straight.

1011
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 2: So and I think this represents the bottom the market

1012
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 2: on sincey the top of Oklahoma State, Okama hit also

1013
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 2: has Oklahoma next week. This is a potential sleepy look

1014
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: at spot. But let's dig into what's happened with Oklahoma

1015
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 2: State after the buye. They did stick with one quarterback,

1016
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 2: they changed their running scheme, and they're feeding Ali Gordon,

1017
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: who's ran it. He's averaged seven point three yards per

1018
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 2: carry over the last four games. Over the first three games,

1019
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 2: they only gave it to him nineteen times. Total offense

1020
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 2: is a lot better. Defense is still bad. I mean,

1021
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 2: during their winning streak, they're averaging like for eighty three yards.

1022
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 2: They're given up four to fifty over during their winning streak.

1023
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 2: Their three game winning streak, they've gotten extremely lucky. You know,

1024
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 2: their opponents have gone one to eight on fourth down,

1025
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 2: set up a lot of short fields. They've had a

1026
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 2: plus four turnover margin, including a huge pick six. The

1027
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 2: opposite's true for Sincey. There's been some struggles for Sincey,

1028
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,760
Speaker 2: but it hasn't been bad as it looks. They were

1029
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 2: definitely out played by Iowa State, but look at their

1030
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 2: other four losses. How game YU by two h and

1031
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 2: fifty yards and an eight point loss due to a

1032
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 2: pick six outgained Biom of Ohio by over two hundred

1033
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 2: yards lost in overtime, Oklahoma only had fifty more yards

1034
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 2: In a fourteen point loss. They outgained Baylor four fifty

1035
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 2: to three ninety six three point loss. There was a

1036
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 2: fumbled kickoff for a touchdown by Baylor. So during their

1037
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 2: five game losing streak they've only forced three turnovers. They

1038
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 2: gave it away nine times, negative six margin. They've had

1039
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 2: two massive games swinging defensive touchdowns allowed, and they just

1040
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 2: shoot themselves in the foot in the red zone. So

1041
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 2: this is a good by low spot on Sincy. From

1042
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 2: a matchup perspective, both defenses allowed a ton of explosiveness,

1043
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 2: so this could turn into a bit of a shootout.

1044
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 2: But Oklahoma State's passing attack is bottom five in passing exploseness.

1045
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 2: That's probably that's welcome news for since he's secondary that's

1046
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 2: allowing way too many explosives. And since he's run, he's

1047
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 2: been really good. That's been the strength of the team.

1048
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 2: That's huge against Gordon. So I will say, if you

1049
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 2: want to want a trend to back this up, the

1050
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 2: week after winning outright as an underdog, teams on a

1051
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 2: three game winning and covering streak six and twenty two

1052
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,839
Speaker 2: against the spread when they're favored by a touchdown or

1053
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 2: more over the past twenty years twenty one percent. That

1054
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: just signifies, you know, you get data, mind all you want.

1055
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 2: But basically what that's saying is team that is just

1056
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 2: one of the outright as an underdog, they've covered in

1057
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 2: one three straight, pretty good chance they're probably going to

1058
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 2: be at the top of the market. And I think

1059
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 2: in this case you also have another team at the

1060
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,399
Speaker 2: bottom of the market that you're buying low on. It's

1061
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,919
Speaker 2: too many points here. Oklahoma State. Love's gone too far.

1062
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: Since you hate has gone too far as well, So

1063
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 2: give me the Bearcats.

1064
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 1: Agree or disagree, I'm going to watch from afar and support.

1065
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 2: You.

1066
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 1: Probably be jealous if you cash his ticket. I mean,

1067
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati has great rush defense numbers, fifteenth in line yards,

1068
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 1: twenty second rushing success rate on the defensive side. This

1069
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 1: team scares the shit. I mean, I've lost so much

1070
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 1: money on since this year because of these mental mistakes,

1071
00:51:57,640 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 1: the penalties and the turnovers that happen, and the most

1072
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: parts of the game. I think it's a Scott saderfield

1073
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 1: trade of the teams that he coaches. I mean, I'm

1074
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: with you on behind you. There's no way I would

1075
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 1: bet Oklahoma State here. But at the same time, if

1076
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,880
Speaker 1: your rolling was sense, man, boy, the mistakes have just

1077
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: been killer this year.

1078
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 2: Next trash, We're gonna go with Purdue Boiler up two

1079
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: and five Perdue. You might look on the surface and say, oh,

1080
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 2: four and three. Nebraska is only laying under a field

1081
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 2: goal at home against Purdue. This is my favorite bet

1082
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,479
Speaker 2: of the weekend. I've been waiting on the three to come.

1083
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 2: I'll still play it to an I'll play money line.

1084
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 2: They'll be in my round Robin Yes produced two and five.

1085
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: They've had some misleading box scores. They've been a bit

1086
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 2: unlucky in the number of areas, but they've also played

1087
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: one of the top ten most difficult schedules in the

1088
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 2: country this year. BWAN Nebraska is right around national average.

1089
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 2: The Purdus played a ridiculous schedule. They're also coming off

1090
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 2: of by here. I really like their staff, But most importantly,

1091
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 2: this Nebraska team is done. They had no players left

1092
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: last last They've already lost two of the receivers in

1093
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 2: Constanada and Mark Squashing earlier the season. They lost their

1094
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 2: two running backs, and Irvin Junior and Romir Johnson just

1095
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,399
Speaker 2: season ending injuries. Last week, they lost their top three

1096
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: offensive lineman who will not play this week, who had

1097
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: a combined seventy eight career starts. And they lost their

1098
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:16,879
Speaker 2: leading receiver Billy Kent, who's now out again. They got

1099
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 2: they have nothing left on offense. Matt Rules said he's

1100
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 2: never seen an injury situation worse than this. From a

1101
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 2: matchup perspective, too, Nebraska can't throw the ball if one

1102
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 2: of the nation's least official passing jack so you can't

1103
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 2: take advantage of Purdue secondary pretty can just load the

1104
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: box here, take away the run, take advantage of an

1105
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 2: offensive line that's and by the way, because of all

1106
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 2: these injuries, they're gonna have true freshmen in there that

1107
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 2: offensive line. They don't want to burn red shirts like

1108
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:42,399
Speaker 2: it's a mess. This Nebraska offense is a mess. And

1109
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 2: the Cornoskers defense been so good against the run, a

1110
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 2: little worse against the pass. But your run defense is

1111
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,439
Speaker 2: meaningless here against Perdue just wants to throw the ball

1112
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 2: with Hudson card. So yeah, this is all Purdue all

1113
00:53:55,120 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 2: the time. Nebraska is decimated by injuries. I think Purdue

1114
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: should be favored here, Boiler.

1115
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not going to play this with you because

1116
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 1: I have a Nebraska under six win total. Here, I

1117
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 1: did four wins. I desperately need a loss, so I'm

1118
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: going to back you here. These Nebraska numbers are horrid

1119
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 1: future now. They have injuries, and they've played a soft

1120
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 1: strength of schedule when you compare it to Purdue. So

1121
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: I am with you all the way here. I need

1122
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 1: a victory out of Purdue for a season long win

1123
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:22,959
Speaker 1: to a little bet.

1124
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 2: And let's go back to the great state of Arizona,

1125
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 2: the Copper State. I think that is We're going to

1126
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 2: Arizona State here against Washington State. I don't care anything

1127
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: over a field goal, but I think it's sitting at

1128
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 2: six five and a half. Maybe it's coming down as

1129
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 2: it should. It's not broken, don't fix it. We're going

1130
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 2: back this Arizona State team and riding them all packed

1131
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 2: twelve by. They've covered every game. This team is so

1132
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 2: undervalued in the market because the first three games of

1133
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 2: the year they were disaster because they had so many injuries.

1134
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 2: They also have been the unluckiest team in the nation

1135
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 2: and turnovers, unluckiest in field position, and unluckiest in injuries.

1136
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 2: Now they're healthy, This defense is balling out. And look

1137
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 2: who's the defensive coordinator, Brian Ward. Where do you come from?

1138
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 2: Washington State? He knows cam Ward as well as anyone.

1139
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: It's gonna bring a ton of pressure, and that's how

1140
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 2: you fluster cam Ward. He had this the familiar film.

1141
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 2: Familiarity excuse me here, favors Arizona State. They have so

1142
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:21,280
Speaker 2: much positive aggression coming their way as well. This Arizona

1143
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 2: State team, I think is the most underrated team in

1144
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 2: the country and it remains so even They should have

1145
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 2: beat Washington outright in Seattle, a team that was just

1146
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 2: scoring it will against the Oregon This defense ranks in

1147
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 2: the top ten nationally in EPA for pass and overall

1148
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 2: explosiveness allowed. What does Washington do? They only throw the ball,

1149
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 2: They only want to push the ball downfield. Their thirtieth,

1150
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 2: top thirty in explosiveness. They're going up to the Sun

1151
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 2: Devil's defense. Their secondary is bawling out and healthy. They're

1152
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: gonna bring a ton of pressure. Ward's gonna make some

1153
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 2: mistakes here. And on the other side of the ball,

1154
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 2: Arizona State they finally found their quarterback and we're get

1155
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 2: but they're gonna have success running the ball here. Scattergo.

1156
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 2: It's going to run wild against this Washington State defense

1157
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 2: that has no linebackers. Their linebacker they lost them all

1158
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 2: during the offseason. Outside the top one hundred and rushed

1159
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 2: success rate. This is a great matchup. Brian Ward's familiarity

1160
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 2: will play large. It's the Desert Baby sun Devils forty

1161
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:17,919
Speaker 2: six thirty one and three against the spread at home

1162
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 2: in league games since two thousand and five, sixty percent

1163
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 2: Sun Devils forks up. Baby.

1164
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 1: We're going right back to the well, yeah, I mean

1165
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: the Washington State team was a bit of a mirage

1166
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: the first half of the season because I was asking

1167
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 1: how the hell did cam Ward all of a sudden

1168
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: decide to stop turning over the ball?

1169
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:34,879
Speaker 2: Right?

1170
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: I mean he was good for four turnovers and six

1171
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays through all of his games, through his

1172
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 1: entire career, even in carn word. So then you focus

1173
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:46,279
Speaker 1: on this game. Let me ask you a question. Well,

1174
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 1: in the handicap here, what rank do you think Arizona

1175
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 1: State is and pressures created on defense? Eight third? Take

1176
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: Arizona State.

1177
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 2: Sun Devil's forks up, baby, that's my squad.

1178
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 1: I should be the helmet, right yeah, people watch that.

1179
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 2: I say it. I say it.

1180
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 1: Got to get you have. The fork is like the

1181
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 1: most beautiful thing you've ever seen. That is it.

1182
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm gonna get that. I'm gonna get one

1183
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 2: if they cover this week. I'm buying one, all right. Uh,

1184
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: cal Usc, I'm not gonna go too deep into this.

1185
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 2: I'm betting Cal, I'm fading Usc. I don't. This team's

1186
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: a fraud. They shouldn't be favored against anybody. Uh laying

1187
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:36,120
Speaker 2: double digits. I don't.

1188
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 1: I don't.

1189
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 2: The defense sucks. Cal score enough someone I don't care

1190
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 2: as a quarterback, I don't know where USC is mentally.

1191
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 2: They could be completely checked out. Wouldn't be surprised at

1192
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 2: Colwn's game. I'm taking the points. I could go into

1193
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 2: more of a breakdown, but I'm fading USC.

1194
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:53,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, how would you know? Lincoln Rally doesn't

1195
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 1: let anybody talk to the press. I don't know. This

1196
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 1: is a nut check game for USC. Are you still

1197
00:57:58,240 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: in this season? Technically?

1198
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 2: What were they playing?

1199
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 1: They were?

1200
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: Why now they have nothing to play for?

1201
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 1: I mean I was blowing out of a fucking bullhorn

1202
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: last week saying they're checked out, and that was when

1203
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:09,439
Speaker 1: they were undefeated in conference, So I guess I don't

1204
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: know why that would change now. So yeah, all right

1205
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 1: with the I haven't put any money on this game,

1206
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 1: but I said USC was checked out last week. There

1207
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: should be really checked out now.

1208
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 2: Last one, just quick. I haven't bet this one thinking

1209
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 2: about it. Georgia Tech plus eleven against UNC. Talk about

1210
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 2: a team that might not show up here in UNC

1211
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 2: after that devastating loss. You have Campbell on deck. I

1212
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 2: could see them being sleepy. Georgia Tech has responded well

1213
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: in recent years. The bad losses. They had one of

1214
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 2: their own last week against pc UNC's defense. Should they

1215
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 2: really be laying eleven and a half? He the last

1216
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 2: two years, Georgia Tech's been like twenty and eighteen point

1217
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 2: dogs in one outright against UNC. I think it is

1218
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 2: Rambole and rock or nothing air. You U and C

1219
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 2: could be super fragile.

1220
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 1: This was going to be the underdog entry for our parlay.

1221
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 2: It was that.

1222
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: Is this or the one that I was going to

1223
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 1: take down Low? I mean they're both. I had a

1224
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: real hard time finding an underdog underneath a TD, But

1225
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 1: I really like this one a lot. And when you

1226
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 1: go and look at North Carolina, when they lose games,

1227
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 1: they lose them in bunches. Last year they lost four

1228
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 1: straight to end the season. One of those losses was

1229
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: the Georgia Tech. So you know, this is just it's

1230
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 1: the nature of this game. But when you go into

1231
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 1: the coverages, Drake May struggles with the coverage that Georgia

1232
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 1: Tech plays. I like the yellow Jackets here with you.

1233
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, they'll be in my round robin yeh. I agree,

1234
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: They're a good round robin piece. All right. That'll do

1235
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 2: it for trash Georgia Tech. Ramblin ratt cal fuck USC,

1236
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 2: Arizona State forks up Purdue. Too many Nebraska injuries, and

1237
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 2: we're buying low on Sincy. All right, Uh no as

1238
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 2: tech overs or unders. You've been hot on those, but

1239
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,479
Speaker 2: they have a buye and no colin on Arkansas because

1240
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 2: they have a buyeh. So light work for you this week.

1241
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 2: Let's get to three and out. All right, before we

1242
00:59:58,240 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 2: get out of here, let's go three and out.

1243
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1244
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 2: Let's start with some Friday night lights.

1245
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 3: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1246
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: Let's go play some football. Gross, we need midwek Bax

1247
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 2: goes back next week. By the way, my mid my

1248
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 2: Mac manifesto will be out early next week. We need

1249
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 2: it because these games. Why did I guess because there's

1250
01:00:21,360 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 2: World Series. They watched the World Series. But Florida Atlantic

1251
01:00:24,000 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 2: at Charlotte.

1252
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 1: Gross, you can win that game.

1253
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you give you back in Charlotte.

1254
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta put money down on it. I K

1255
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 1: I was gonna put money on Biff when they turn

1256
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 1: the corner. They finally turned the corner. I mean, be

1257
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:37,560
Speaker 1: it what it is a victory over East Carolina. But

1258
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 1: you know, I mean Florida Atlantic hasn't. I mean, they

1259
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:41,439
Speaker 1: haven't done anything special either.

1260
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 2: So all right, riding with Biff on Friday night lights,

1261
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 2: I tell people that I'm coming to Charlotte.

1262
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 1: I bet ninety percent of the guys in football land

1263
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 1: say that is a gold line.

1264
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,480
Speaker 2: Let's got a second down. Our favorite overdog.

1265
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:58,400
Speaker 1: It's called the overdog parlay.

1266
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 2: It's our favorite favorite. I'll kick things off. I'm gonna

1267
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 2: go Boise State here. Anything under six is fine. Know

1268
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 2: some people close to the program getting good reports about

1269
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 2: what's going on there after they're really bad loss And

1270
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 2: if you talk about a team that's responded well to

1271
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 2: bad losses in recent years, Boise State has done that.

1272
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,520
Speaker 2: So I will give them credit in that aspect. But

1273
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 2: they're getting healthier. That's the biggest thing here. Look, they're

1274
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:24,080
Speaker 2: gonna have their full offensive line together for the first

1275
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,919
Speaker 2: time full camp. You're gonna get George hallane back, who's

1276
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 2: just going to be a nice little counter to Ashton Genty,

1277
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 2: who's arguing with the best running back in the country.

1278
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 2: And they just don't have any depth there. They just

1279
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 2: have a guy who, like you know, it's like me

1280
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:38,240
Speaker 2: in high school. You just try to hold on the

1281
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 2: ball and move forward for a yard. They have no

1282
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 2: no debt with Hailani and genty now back and this

1283
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 2: Wyoming team. I mean, look, they they beat New Mexico

1284
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 2: and Portland State by nine to fourteen. Their three other

1285
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 2: victories came by a combined ten points with the help

1286
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 2: of turnovers, special teams, touchdowns, and opposing quarterback injuries. They've

1287
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 2: not been that great. So I'm buying low on Boise

1288
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 2: State here. They're getting healthier on both sides of the ball.

1289
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 2: The biggest weakness on Boys is their secondary. They can't

1290
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 2: cover anyone. Wyoming's not going to really exploit that. Boys

1291
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 2: also do a few bounces. I mean they're the complete

1292
01:02:12,560 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 2: opposite end of the spectrum of Wyoming. They you have

1293
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: a very similar schedule difficulty Broncos negative five, turnover margin

1294
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 2: Fokes plus five, and some of the Boise losses. I mean,

1295
01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 2: they lost in a last second field goal, they lost

1296
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 2: in a last second Hill Mary, they lost on a

1297
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 2: blocked field goal touchdown against Memphis by three. So this

1298
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 2: is Boise here. I think this is a great spot

1299
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:40,320
Speaker 2: to back the favorite and fade the Pokes away from Laradie.

1300
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 1: What do you got breaks my heart. I got some

1301
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 1: wyoming futures. Thirteen to one. That's a must win game,

1302
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 1: and they're gonna lose it, and it's gonna break my heart.

1303
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go two lane on my overdog. I think

1304
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 1: minus ten and a half minus ten is out there

1305
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 1: right now going up against Rice, And really this is

1306
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 1: two different offenses, two lane being ground based, Rice being

1307
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 1: pass and you just have to handicap which defense is

1308
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:04,640
Speaker 1: going to have better success, and two lane is going

1309
01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 1: to have much more success thrown down some coverage unit

1310
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:10,600
Speaker 1: against JT. Daniels, They're going to be able to limit him.

1311
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 1: In the cover one that they play JT. Daniels, he's

1312
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: average success rate, average and explosives, but he has a

1313
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,280
Speaker 1: large negative play rate when going up against Cover one.

1314
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 1: Two Lane's going to be able to implement that and

1315
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 1: kind of stifle them a little bit. But really the

1316
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:29,520
Speaker 1: handicap comes down to what two lane does on the

1317
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:33,880
Speaker 1: ground inside zone, outside zone, man concepts, counter. They do

1318
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 1: so much pre snap and during it, and it's just

1319
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 1: really hard to keep track of. And Rice has been

1320
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:45,640
Speaker 1: absolutely horrific against inside outside zone and even worse against counter.

1321
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 1: So this is a thing where Rice does not have

1322
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 1: it in the front seven to stop what TWU lane

1323
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:53,520
Speaker 1: does with so many you know, twelve formations and motion

1324
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 1: and tight ends and with the running of Malachi Malki

1325
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 1: Hughes and Michael Pratt. So I expect them to eat

1326
01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:03,160
Speaker 1: a bunch of clock, to have tons of explosive games

1327
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 1: on the ground covering that ten and a half.

1328
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there, So Boise and Tulane as

1329
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 2: our favorite overdogs. One final task before we get out

1330
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: of your third down, our favorite money on underdogs.

1331
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1332
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. I'll be quick,

1333
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 2: I'll give a reasonable take. I'm gonna go with Purdue.

1334
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:33,960
Speaker 2: I already talked about this game earlier. Injuries for Nebraska

1335
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 2: devastating lost the three top offensive line last week, ast

1336
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 2: the leading receiver. They already lost two receivers into running

1337
01:04:38,000 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 2: backs or in the season rules sets. The worst has

1338
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 2: ever been p due off of the bye, great matchup

1339
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball. Nebraska can't take advantage

1340
01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 2: of produce secondary Produe can load the box here. I

1341
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:48,800
Speaker 2: just I don't see if Nebraska's biggest strength is to

1342
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 2: run defense on d prdu doesnt run the ball. This

1343
01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 2: is a great matchup, great spot. Too many injuries for

1344
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 2: Nebraska for due gets it done. Now, I'm gonna get

1345
01:04:56,080 --> 01:04:58,640
Speaker 2: out of the way for your money on Underdog. It

1346
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:00,440
Speaker 2: turns out this is the trash segment, by the way,

1347
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:00,919
Speaker 2: right now.

1348
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I said, this isn't really the trash. This

1349
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:05,640
Speaker 1: is more of the city dump, right. I think we're

1350
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 1: just completely bypassing the bin that's next to your desk.

1351
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 1: We're going to the city dump. What. I love garbage,

1352
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:12,120
Speaker 1: And I'm not going to sit here and make a

1353
01:05:12,120 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 1: bunch of reasons why I think Southern Miss is good, right,

1354
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 1: Southern Miss? Will Hall. I think Will Hall's probably done.

1355
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 1: His time is done. He's still coaching like he's going

1356
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 1: to be there. They are what you and I call

1357
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,520
Speaker 1: a corpse. Their season is pretty much over one and six.

1358
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 1: They don't have an FBS win, they've beaten al Corn State.

1359
01:05:26,600 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 1: But they do have one redeeming quality. They run the

1360
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,960
Speaker 1: ball with Frank Gore. They actually do have some semblance

1361
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,160
Speaker 1: of a ground game. They have a tougher strength of schedule.

1362
01:05:34,520 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 1: They've played, you know, well on the ground running the

1363
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 1: ball Frank Gore, Like I said, still there but really

1364
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 1: the handicap is app State. They have been horrendous for

1365
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 1: a month. They've lost three of their last four. The

1366
01:05:47,760 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 1: one game that they did win was against Ulm on

1367
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 1: a last second fifty five yard field goal. They were

1368
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,560
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites. They needed a fifty five yard field

1369
01:05:56,600 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 1: goal to win that game against Ulm. They lost to

1370
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 1: Old Dominion last week. They are horrific. They're terrible, and

1371
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 1: more importantly, they're terrible against the run. And so you

1372
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:10,480
Speaker 1: know Ulm they average more than five yards per carry.

1373
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 1: That's really bad for app State. I don't know what

1374
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 1: has happened to them. Against the run, they're one hundred

1375
01:06:15,240 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 1: and twenty ninth and tackling they're just everything from rushing

1376
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,960
Speaker 1: success lineyards EPA. They're one hundred and nineteenth and allowing

1377
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 1: rush explosives. Can Southern mist take advantage of this? I mean,

1378
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:27,200
Speaker 1: they're forty fifth and rush explosives. It's really the only

1379
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:28,920
Speaker 1: thing that they kind of have to live on. But

1380
01:06:29,000 --> 01:06:31,760
Speaker 1: I can't even talk about how far app State has

1381
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,960
Speaker 1: fallen off the track of who they used to be.

1382
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,160
Speaker 1: And so Frank Gore, you know, he's created twenty seven

1383
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 1: missed tackles. Southern Miss is twenty third nationally and creating

1384
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:46,600
Speaker 1: broken tackles on the ground. I mean, listen, the numbers

1385
01:06:46,640 --> 01:06:49,440
Speaker 1: should be like nine, It shouldn't be seventeen. Why am

1386
01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:51,880
Speaker 1: I bringing to the table here because app States lose

1387
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:54,000
Speaker 1: into Old Dominion and they needed a fifty five yard

1388
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 1: field goal to beat Ulm. It can happen. It can happen.

1389
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 2: Bringing the trash here this week. Look, I will say

1390
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 2: you want some variants with these big dogs. Will Hall

1391
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 2: said he's reevaluating everything everything, so you could see some

1392
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:14,080
Speaker 2: new playing quarterback. Yeah, bring back the wildcat that's been

1393
01:07:14,120 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 2: when Southern Miss has been the best. So you gotta

1394
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 2: hope for uh Frank Wor to go wild. I mean,

1395
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,560
Speaker 2: that's a seventeen point dog. It's not my least favorite one.

1396
01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:25,000
Speaker 1: If it goes. I mean there were others on the board,

1397
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 1: you know, I mean like I did, like Georgia.

1398
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 2: Tech, stick with it, don't don't go to your backups.

1399
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 1: All right, but then mess Lit's say it's Southern Miss.

1400
01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:36,840
Speaker 1: I promise this. I promise this. If it if it doesn't,

1401
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: if it doesn't cover, if it doesn't win, We'll be

1402
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 1: right back with something really short next week, and I'll

1403
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 1: let you take the TD ten point type underdog here.

1404
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 1: I wanted to really go out on the line here.

1405
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 2: All right, that's fitting way to end. My trash wasn't

1406
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 2: as trashy as usual, so we had to get some

1407
01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:54,760
Speaker 2: trash from real trash in there. But thanks as always

1408
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,680
Speaker 2: the Colin for joining me, Thanks of course to our

1409
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:00,920
Speaker 2: producer Matt Mitchell on the back an thanks to our

1410
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:03,720
Speaker 2: video team and social as well, but most importantly thanks

1411
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:05,360
Speaker 2: to all of you for tuning in. We're up over

1412
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 2: three hundred episodes. Now make sure you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe,

1413
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 2: le review, tell a friend, Tell an enemy, five star review.

1414
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 2: They really help us out. We'll do some more giveaways

1415
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 2: on Sunday. Don't forget aout the voicemail nine to five

1416
01:08:15,120 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 2: nine Bad Beat. It's always in my ex or Twitter profile,

1417
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,120
Speaker 2: Call in, bitch, crime, own whatever you need to get

1418
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 2: off your chest. It's therapeutic and we'll play the best

1419
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:27,680
Speaker 2: ones on our recap show, which we'll be out on

1420
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 2: by Monday morning with a quick look at it next week.

1421
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:33,040
Speaker 2: One final re minder, make sure you check out the

1422
01:08:33,040 --> 01:08:34,599
Speaker 2: group of five guys and then we'll be back ten

1423
01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:38,640
Speaker 2: thirty am Eastern Live for BBOC Live Saturday morning. I'll

1424
01:08:38,680 --> 01:08:40,559
Speaker 2: swoot out that link. That'll be in the award winning

1425
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 2: Action Ever gap and on YouTube as well. Good luck

1426
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 2: on all your wages. Let's have another big weekend. Keep

1427
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 2: it rolling here. We'll catch you all on Saturday. Cheers.

1428
01:08:50,680 --> 01:09:06,800
Speaker 1: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1429
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1430
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:12,719
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1431
01:09:12,800 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 1: gambler