1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Time checking out with Bloomberg 7 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: Opinion or joined by opinion columnists. But oh so much 8 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: more than that. His name is Stephen Roach and you 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: will know him from his time as former chairman of 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley Asia. Also, of course he's senior fellow at 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 1: Yale University. Stephen want to talk to you about your 12 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: call on the Dollar, but for us to have to 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: ask you about this explosive book from John Bolton, all 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: of the allegations that he didn't make when he had 15 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: the chance to give testimony, but is now making in 16 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: a book. You know the Chinese administration, possibly as well 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: as anybody in the administration, probably much much more so. 18 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: Do you believe the allegation that President and Tom pleaded 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: with Mr she to help him win reelection by buying 20 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: American agricultural products which would help President Trump in farm States. 21 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 1: You know, Bunny, I I do not know you know 22 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: the veracity of he said, she said, allegations, Um, in 23 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 1: any of this political intrigue from you know, the Ukraine 24 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: to UM Beijing. You you hear an awful lot. And 25 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: you know it's it's clear that Um, you know, we 26 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: we have a president who has pushed the envelope in 27 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: his use of political leverage to achieve um, not just 28 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: electoral results, but but economic results. And whether or not 29 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: he did as um former National Scarity advisor of Bolton indicated, 30 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: utilize that those tactics in addressing the China conflict for 31 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: political purposes in the US, it remains to be seen. 32 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: I mean, Trump will deny it, and Bolton has got 33 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: another point of view. And UM, you know, I have 34 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: no idea as to whether or not Bolton is right 35 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: or as Trump's as he's lying. Um, the president has 36 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 1: a inclination to stretch the truth a little bit as 37 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: well as we have gathered from his eighteen thousand plus 38 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: lies that have been fact chuffed by the Washington Post 39 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: since he's been president. But you know, I I just 40 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: I don't know. So Stephen, let's switch gears to your 41 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: column here. Every time we have an f X strategist on, 42 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: my first question is always give me the bear case 43 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: for the U. S. Dollar. And I rarely get a 44 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: good answer, or any answer at all, But I think 45 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: you've got one force. What's your call on the U. S. Dollar. Well, unfortunately, 46 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: I'm not an epic strategist, Paul, so I don't have 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: to do this for a living, because you know, currency 48 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 1: calls are some of the toughest calls to do. But look, 49 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: I worry about an unsustainable dynamic that is now emerging 50 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: between domestic saving, or the lack of they are of 51 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: in the US and our chronic current account problem, which 52 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: requires US to borrow surplus foreign savings from abroad. We 53 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 1: entered COVID with a historically low domestic savings rate of 54 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: only one point four percent of national income in early 55 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: forty five year averages seven. So we're we we have 56 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: very inadequate saving UH and reflecting these explosive budget deficit 57 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: trajectory that we're on right now. Um, as you know 58 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: the Congress and the Administration addresses precipitous decline in economic activity, 59 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: our saving is going to go into negative territory. Did 60 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: that once before? In the global financial crisis, the average 61 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: was a negative one um uh, you know over the 62 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: uh two thousand nine to two thousand eleven period. But 63 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: it's gonna go sharply negative, I think into the minus 64 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: five area. And that's going to blow our current account 65 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: deficit to a new record in excess of six and 66 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: a half percent of GDP. The dollar serves the purpose 67 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: of setting the equilibrium between savings and and you know, 68 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: the current account, and so I'm looking for at client 69 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: in the dollar over the next five years to address that. Yeah, 70 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: it's a stunning call thirty five decline in the value 71 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: of the dollar. That would change the US economy irreptably, 72 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: I imagine. Now you do say it's couched in terms 73 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: of the comparison between the US the currencies of road 74 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: basket of America's trading partners. Would that include the yuan? 75 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: Will China be a trading partner in the future, Stephen, Yeah, Vonnie, 76 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I mean it's a big number, 77 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: but you know, if you look at the dollar, you 78 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: know it's moved over the you know, the last um 79 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: forty five years, we we had to we had two 80 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: drops of in the seventies and again in the mid eighties, 81 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: we had a drop of UM in the early two thousands. UM. 82 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: These are against you know, broad trade weighted baskets of 83 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: all of our trading partners. So this is not outside 84 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: the realm of the dollar declines we've seen in the past. 85 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 1: And it would you know, the dollar would fall against 86 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: UM I think the Chinese room and b. Yes, surprisingly 87 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: against the euro, which is the most unloved major currency 88 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: in the world, but also against you know, the the 89 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: Canadian dollar in the Mexican pay so, and probably even 90 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: against gold and cryptocurrencies like the bitcoin. So I mean, 91 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: this is a broad based decline reflecting some serious macroeconomic 92 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 1: and balances that we're have long been evident in the 93 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: US that are going from bad to worse as we speak, Stephen, 94 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: very briefly, we only have just a couple of seconds. 95 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: But good China really give the US dollar a run 96 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: for reserve currency, not on an air term basis. I 97 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: think UM. China's got a long way to go to 98 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: liberalize its financial system, to make its currency fully convertible, 99 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 1: open up its capital account, and China's got issues of 100 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: its own. But our reserve position has come down over 101 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: the last twenty years, and it's likely to go further 102 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 1: down with the dollar coming under the pressure that I envisioned. Stephen, 103 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: it is always a pleasure to speak with you, never 104 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,119 Speaker 1: enough time, but we thank you for joining us. Steven 105 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 1: Roach is Senior Fellow at Yale Universe City, former chairman 106 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: of Morganstown, the Asia and Bloomberg opinion columnists. Did you 107 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: check out his latest column, how the coming crash and 108 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: the Dollar will Unfold for more details on our conversation. 109 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: Just then, looking at the market here again, let's think 110 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: to step back a little bit. You think back to 111 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: mid March when this all began, the market sank about 112 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: thirty four thirty five pc. It since retraced a lot 113 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: of that move coming off the bottom, driven in large 114 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: part by a federal reserve that has really been aggressive 115 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: and in putting liquidity into the market. The question now 116 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: for a lot of investors is what's the next step 117 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: to help us answer that question. Lisa Schalett, chief investment 118 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: Officer Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley. They have about almost 119 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: two and a half a trillion dollars of client assets. 120 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: She joins us on the phone. Lisa, thanks so much 121 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: for joining us once again, What are you hearing from 122 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: great to have you? What are you hearing from your 123 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: clients right now? Are they do they feel like, oh 124 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: g I missed out on this rally, or I don't 125 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: believe it is rally. What are you hearing most office, 126 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: most often from the Morgan Stanley clients. Yeah, I think 127 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: from our clients, and I think it's quite typical of 128 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: many private wealth clients. Is a continued level of skepticism, uh, 129 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: skepticism that that the country is quote unquote in the 130 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: clear with regard to the virus, skepticism that uh, you know, 131 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: the market is reflecting the economic reality that they see 132 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: on the ground. Uh. And and really skeptical about the 133 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: longer uh term. I mean, don't forget our typical client 134 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: is uh you know someone uh that that's probably over 135 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: fifty five over sixty uh And they have, you know, 136 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: some historic perspective, and so they're asking us a lot 137 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: of questions about what are the implications longer term of 138 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: this rapid money growth by the FED, of the exploding 139 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: deficits and debt. Uh. And so I think that there 140 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: is a large amount of cash on the sidelines, which 141 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: is certainly a constructive element for this market. But our clients, 142 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: for the most part, are are holding back, and I 143 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: think that they're waiting for a little bit more evidence 144 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: that things are truly improving, uh, and that you know, 145 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: profits are catching up to the to this market which 146 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 1: has anticipated a lot of recovery already, Lisa, are they 147 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: not then embracing the V shaped recovery narrative? And in 148 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 1: that situation, did the FED chair and give them all 149 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: the more ammunition to not embrace that? Yeah? So you know, 150 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: we definitely, you know, we're writing about this. So look, uh, 151 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: you know, my my team and the folks on the 152 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: Global Investment Committee at Morgan Stanley have been trying to 153 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 1: to lay out that narrative and explain to folks and 154 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: our clients that, you know, the way markets work is, uh, 155 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: it's not about the level. It's all about rates of change, 156 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 1: and it's all about upside surprises. And if you get 157 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: positive rates of change and upside surprises, market tend to 158 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: go up and climb the wall of worry. Um. That 159 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: having been said, you know, when you have a FED 160 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: that comes out and says, hey, you know, we don't 161 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: think that, uh, that the economy is going to be 162 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: back to where it was in January until the end 163 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: of two I mean, my goodness, that's two and a 164 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: half years from now. Uh. That's a pretty sobering statement, 165 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: uh from the Fed. And I think, uh, you know, 166 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: for folks who are more conservative who've sat in the 167 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 1: bond market, uh, you know, trying to take shelter, probably 168 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: heard those messages and said, you know, holy gosh, you know, 169 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 1: he the FED doesn't think we're going to get out 170 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 1: of this anytime soon. So where what are you suggesting 171 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 1: to your clients that they as as they think about 172 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 1: perhaps even allocating some new capital. Is it a typical 173 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: sixty forty allocation or you perhaps be a little bit 174 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: more cautious now. So we're on the other side of that. 175 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: So again, you know, we're trying to encourage folks and 176 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: race through the what we have learned through uh, you know, 177 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: our history of of investing in markets, and that is 178 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: uh that you know, uh bull markets, bear markets sent 179 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: to end when recessions begin. The recession began uh in February. Uh, 180 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: and we believe we're in the process of, you know, 181 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: forming a bottom in this recession, and the market is 182 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: setting up uh for a new bowl market. Uh. And 183 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: that ball market UH is probably going to behave the 184 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: way others have coming out of a recession, which is 185 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: a preference for early cyclicals things like financial industrials, materials, 186 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: transport to energy UH. And those are the types of 187 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: areas that are not excessively overvalued today, but where we 188 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: do think that there's upside surprise that could come. And 189 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: so you know, we are encouraging folks UH to take 190 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: some risk here and balance those conservative portfolios, many of 191 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 1: which on the stock side have been loaded up with 192 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: the usual names and you all know what they are, 193 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: the right tech stocks. Very basicly though, Lisa, if it's 194 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: not your typical recession, then will the market perform in 195 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: the typical pollst recession away after this? Uh? So, I 196 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: guess my response to that is there's never a typical recession. 197 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: And so while the economic composition of every every single 198 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: recession is different, and where the excess is and where 199 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: the stress points are and where the victims are UH 200 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: is always different, the market playbook UH tends to be 201 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 1: very very very similar. UH. And that's what we're trying 202 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: to tell clients is, yes, you know, maybe in the 203 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: last recession we were worried about financials and housing. In 204 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: the one before that, we were worried about the tech wreck. Uh, 205 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: you know, perhaps this one we're worried about, you know, 206 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: parts of consumer discretionary in retail that are structurally impaired. 207 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: But never the last. We are going to have an 208 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: economic recovery and the markets probably very similar way. Lisa, 209 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us this morning. That's Lisa's Challotte see 210 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: io of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley. Of course, client assets, 211 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: they're totally nearly two and a half trillion dollars, so 212 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: a lot of money to put to work. Now. I 213 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: want to bring in our next guest for a fascinating 214 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: discussion on a certain book that has come to the 215 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: attention of publishers all over the world. It's it's coming out. 216 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: Apparently pre orders are through the roof, and there's also 217 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: a movement asking people not to buy the book. Of course, 218 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: talking about the book that John Bolton has written about 219 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: his time in the administration seventeen months as a National 220 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: security adviser. Let's bring in somebody who can talk to 221 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:51,319 Speaker 1: this for us. Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director Andy Brown. Andy, 222 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: thanks for joining. Good be with you. How much heft 223 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: does John Bolton have as a critic of President Trump. 224 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: I mean, he's always been a man of a little 225 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: bit of bluster from time to time, partial to some 226 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: dramatic moments, you could say, will it have an impact 227 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: on concrete things like pulling like voters? Um. I think 228 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: this is why the book is so sensational, UM, and 229 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: why people are taking these allegations so seriously that you know, 230 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: Bolton um has enormous credibility as a hawk. Um. He 231 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: is an uber hook on China, on North Korea, on Iran, UM. 232 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: You know, when he has a record of administer of 233 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: being in successive Republican administrations. I mean this, this is 234 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: not some liberal tossing accusations that at Trump. This is 235 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: somebody who was by his side as his National Security 236 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: director for seventeen months, and he was privy to all 237 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: of the conversations or many of the conversations that he 238 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: had with heads of state all over the world, including 239 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: China's Ji Jimping. Let's go there, Andy. You know, they're 240 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: interesting excerpts I've read about President Trump, you know, effectively 241 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: begging for China to buy farm products US farm products 242 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: to improve Presidents Trump's chances with those farm states in 243 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: the election. What are some of your takeaways on the 244 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: aspects of the book that have been reported as it 245 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: relates to China. It's it's it's absolutely devastating. I mean, 246 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: if if what Bolton is saying is true, it is 247 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: absolutely devastating for Donald Trump. I mean, a major plank 248 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: in his re election campaign was supposed to be tough 249 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: on China in contrast to Joe Biden, who is supposed 250 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: to be feckless and weak. And in fact, the account 251 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: of John Balton shows a US president who is a 252 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: pushover in almost every on almost every issue, uh, in 253 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: the U S. China relationship that matters, whether that national security, 254 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: whether that's trade, whether that's human rights, whether that's Hong 255 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: Kong Um. He comes across as as you say, is 256 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: an absolute supplicant begging Jim paying to buy you as 257 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: agricultural products so that he could win the next election. 258 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: If John Bolden felt so strongly about this though, and 259 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: felt that these revelations were so explosive as to really 260 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: dent the president's credibility, why didn't he testify in the 261 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: impeachment proceedings? Yeah, exactly, I mean that's a good point, 262 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: and and and clearly that that that's that's where he's weak, 263 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: and that's why the Democrats are hopping mad so, I mean, 264 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: his his his accusation against the Democrats is that they 265 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: focused their impeachment to narrowly on Ukraine. And if only 266 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: they had known about the that the breadth of this, um, 267 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: you know, effort to basically sell American interest in in 268 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: return for private political favor that you know, this might 269 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: have got the president impeached. Um so, I mean if 270 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: he had all this, why didn't he dish earlier during 271 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: the impeachment process and instead of waiting for his lucrative 272 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: book contract two million bucks with Simon and Schusters. So 273 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: it does, it does to an extent undermine the the 274 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: his central accusations. So Andy, as it relates to China, here, 275 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: what do you think the Chinese are rooting for in 276 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: the November presidential election? Did they want former years of 277 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump? I think they'd be very happy to 278 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: have another four years of Donald Trump. I mean, you 279 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: know this is this is they had pegged him right 280 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: from the start as as as a leader who would 281 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: be susceptible to inducements, uh, to flattery. Um he was 282 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: a businessman. He was transactional, and according to Bolton's account, 283 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: that is precisely the way things have have turned out. 284 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: And look, it's not just my opinion. We have some 285 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 1: very good reporting out of out of our Beijing bureau 286 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: um uh, you know. Um Pete Martin wrote a story 287 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 1: he had interviewed a whole bunch of senior, current and 288 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: retired Chinese government officials. They said, we want Trump uh. 289 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: And the reason they cited is that Trump under minds 290 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: US alliances and that is the one thing that the 291 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: Chinese fear that is their biggest to them, their biggest threat. 292 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 1: It is the US alliance instruction. And of course, I 293 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: mean it is true what Bolton says, this sort of 294 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: transactional nature. Putting everything on the table, including Huawei, including Zte, 295 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: including the wig, is just tossing it all into the 296 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: into the into into the part subsuming everything to getting 297 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: a trade deal, in trading relations with um you know, 298 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 1: with with with China. This is deeply corrosive of the 299 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: trust that underpins US alliances all around the world, including 300 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: in Asia. Maybe I'll be a little cynical, but it 301 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: doesn't make it more likely that we will actually get 302 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: a trade deal with China now, because both sides will 303 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: be sort of falling over themselves to prove that there 304 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: was there was no back room dealings and therefore you 305 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: know that the two countries can get on well in public. Again, 306 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,199 Speaker 1: it's it's it's really hard to read. I mean, just 307 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: had this meeting in Hawaii between um, you know, Segre 308 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 1: State Pompeo and Young Jetro, China's top diplomat. UM. You know, 309 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: trade would have trade, trade would have been on the table. 310 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: We don't really know what the outcome of those talks was, 311 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: although it doesn't appear to have to have it achieved 312 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 1: anything that looks like a breakthrough, at least nothing that 313 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 1: that that either side have announced. UM. It's also notable 314 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: by the way that Robert Lightheiser, the chief US trade negotiator, 315 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: has denied UM some of the more explosive claims that 316 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: John Bolton made in his book. Yeah, and those China 317 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: claims were just the beginning of it. And our thanks 318 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: to you Andy Brown, editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy, 319 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: for joining us there. Bolton saying Trump not fit for 320 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,919 Speaker 1: office and and lacks the competence to service president in 321 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: part because he's solely focused on his political fortunes. I 322 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: don't know many presidents for him, that's not a priority 323 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: either though. Also, we've been reporting this morning a historic 324 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: day from the Supreme Court on the immigration issue. A 325 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: divided US Supreme Court stopped President Donald Trump from ending 326 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: the Obama era program that shields young undocumented immigrants from 327 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: deportation and lets them seek jobs. To take down deep 328 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: into this, we're very fortunate to have our good friend 329 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: June Grasso joined us June as a legal analyst and 330 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: host of Bloomberg Law. You can hear that weekdays at 331 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 1: ten pm Wall Street Time. June, thanks so much for 332 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 1: joining us here. Give us your quick thoughts on this 333 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: five four decision out of the Supreme Court. Well, this 334 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 1: is the second time this week that the Court has 335 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: ruled against the Trump administration. And this is a case 336 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: where Justice Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the four 337 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 1: liberals in the court. So it's a five to four decision, 338 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: and he basically said that no one's arguing that the 339 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: Trump administration could terminate the DOCTA program. Everyone agrees it can, 340 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: but they went about it in the wrong way. They 341 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: didn't provide a reasoned explanation for why they were doing this. 342 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 1: The way they acted was arbitrary and capricious. This is 343 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: a decision that we have been waiting for. It's the 344 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: it's the decision that we've been waiting for the longest. 345 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: It was argued early in the term, so you see, 346 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 1: it took a long time because there are so many 347 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:24,159 Speaker 1: different opinions. There's not only the decent and the majority opinion. 348 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,359 Speaker 1: There are concurrences, concurrencies in part, the scents in part. 349 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: It's really complicated. So the line that I took from 350 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: a tune was the appropriate recourse is therefore to remand 351 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: to DHS so that it may consider the problem and 352 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: new Does this mean that the Department of Holman Security 353 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 1: will actually consider it, make better arguments and the Supreme 354 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: Warrant won't have any objection at that point. Well, they 355 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: could do that. This is what the chief said. You 356 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: can take it back again and you can redo it. 357 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 1: But the thing is that would take a long time 358 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: because they'd have to come up with some reasoned explanation. 359 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: They have to follow the rules, so it's unlocked. They 360 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: could do that within the end of the Trump term, 361 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: if he's elected to a second term. They can try 362 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 1: to do that and come up with better explanations that 363 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: will satisfy the Court that they've really thought this through. 364 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: But this sort of reminds you of the Census case 365 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 1: where the Supreme Court's kicking it down the road, saying, okay, 366 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: you guys, take it back. Now, we're done with this 367 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: and we'll see what you do next. So cho and 368 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: for legal analysts like yourself, a Supreme Court watchers, how surprising, 369 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: if at all, is it that how Justice Robert's voted here? Well, 370 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 1: I thought it was surprising. This was a case that 371 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: we didn't really have an inkling of how it was 372 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 1: going to go. In other words, the case earlier this 373 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: week on LGBT rights, that was a case where during 374 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: the oral arguments you could sort of tell that justice 375 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: course which might be leaning in the direction of um 376 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: gay rights. However, with this case, it was very hard 377 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: to tell what was going on. So I was very surprised. 378 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people we're very surprised. And 379 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 1: also it's always surprising when you see the Chief Justice 380 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: John Roberts is now the swing vote that Anthony Kennedy was, 381 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: and in the two cases this week he sided with 382 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: the three liberals. Yeah, I mean, there's a whole range 383 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 1: of things to be surprised at, not least that this 384 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: was a five four decision as well. June remind us 385 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 1: exactly how many people and who were talking about these 386 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 1: are the Dreamers, almost seven thousand kids that were born 387 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: here that would have had to leave if this wasn't upheld. Right, 388 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: and President Barack Obama started this program that allows them 389 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: to continue to work and find a way towards citizenship. 390 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: President Trump said that it was not within his legal authority, 391 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,719 Speaker 1: president Obama's legal authority to have this program, so he 392 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: ended it. So right now, the Dreamers have been in 393 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 1: this sort of no man's land for so many months, 394 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: and right now they can go on with the program, 395 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: they can re up for more of the program. They 396 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 1: can feel comfortable that they're not going to be deported, 397 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: and that's the big thing. There was this question of 398 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 1: whether if the Supreme Court had said that this DOCTA 399 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: decision was absolutely right and the Trump could go ahead, 400 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: then the question was would these six hundred and seventies 401 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: seven hundred thousand young immigrants be deported And some of them, remember, 402 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 1: don't even speak another language. They've been here so long 403 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 1: they are American citizens, most of them are well employed, 404 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 1: so it's it would be really it would be a 405 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 1: torturous debate and it would really be controversial thing that 406 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: would again cause you know, disruptions in the country. And 407 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: I guess if if if it had gone the other way, 408 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 1: then the potential was there for literally seven hundred thousand, 409 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: you know, all but American and name kids to be deported, 410 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: Uh you know a S A P. Just as Karence Thomas, 411 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: Samuel Alito, Neil Gorza, gen Bred Kavanaugh all dissented. Yes, 412 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 1: now Clarence Thomas. Justice Thomas said that this was an 413 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: effort to avoid a politically controversial but legally correct decision. 414 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,199 Speaker 1: So he said, this would find future administrations to what 415 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 1: prior presidents doing executive order. So think about all the 416 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: executive orders that President Trump has written and issued. Should 417 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 1: the next president be bound by those? But of course, 418 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 1: you know that's that's the legal issue. But Chief Justice 419 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: Roberts said that that's not really the case because it's 420 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 1: just a question of how they did it. And this 421 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,919 Speaker 1: happens all the time to the Trump administration in the 422 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: courts on environmental issues. They don't follow the rules when 423 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: they do these things. June, we have to give you go, 424 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: but thank you do so. Legal analyst and host of 425 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Local. Thanks for listening to Boomberg Markets podcast. You 426 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or 427 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on 428 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: Twitter at Bonny Quinn. And Paul Sweeney I'm on Twitter 429 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always catch 430 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio m