1 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: Tracy, you know, we've spent the last I guess it's 4 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 1: like three years now, maybe even a little. Actually it's 5 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: been longer than three. 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 2: Years now, feels like a long time talking. 7 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: About many aspects of the sort of physical manufactured economy 8 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: that broke or are broken in some way. 9 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think it's because, I mean, obviously, the 10 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 3: pandemic exposed a lot of these fault lines with global 11 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 3: supply chains for physical goods, primarily consumer goods, things like 12 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 3: furniture and food and stuff like that. But on the 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 3: other hand, there was also a lot of disruption to services, 14 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 3: and we haven't really spoken as much about that, right. 15 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: And the other thing that's really striking with services, So 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: actually right now we're in this period where like, for 17 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: the fact, there's a lot of focus on services inflation 18 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: and when is that going to come down, et cetera. 19 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: The other thing with a lot of services, particularly like 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: very crucial services, is that to the extent that we 21 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: talk about certain industries being broken or market failures, which 22 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: I think was like a sort of like recurrent theme 23 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: of our work. Many of the was sort of broken, 24 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 1: it seems in the services space, it just existed long before. 25 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: Like these these problems were actually very evident even prior. 26 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: To COVID no totally. 27 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 3: There was actually a chart I was looking at just 28 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 3: last week that showed the long term inflation trends in 29 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 3: the US broken into sort of components, and if you 30 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 3: look at it, the highest price increases are all in services, 31 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 3: so things like healthcare, childcare, while all the consumer goods, 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 3: the durable stuff, has been going down. So it's much 33 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 3: cheaper to buy a big screen TV than previously, but 34 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 3: it's much more expensive to have a kid and send 35 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: them to college and things like that. 36 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 2: Right, and so these are like these sort of like 37 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: deeper things. 38 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: And so we're thinking about, like, okay, what are the bottlenecks, 39 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: what are the you know, the so called market failures, 40 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: et cetera that cause this, And we look at it 41 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: in the manufactured world, but buy and large you know, 42 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: TVs and refrigerators and air conditioning and cars, and they 43 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: get better and better, it seems like over time, and 44 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: buy and large they do get cheaper, even with the 45 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: recent disruptions. But why are the parts of this economy 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: that I think everyone considers to be crucial and sort 47 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: of things related to childcare, care work, elder care, which 48 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: is going to become a bigger and bigger crisis or 49 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: issue for the economy, is the baby boomer generation. Ages. 50 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: These have been broken for people for a long time, 51 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 1: and there's no like end insight, there's no like, oh, 52 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: it's going to finally normalize because the pre COVID trend 53 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: was so bad. 54 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, are we pivoting from goods to services? Is that 55 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: what's happening? 56 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: I think we are doing a little pivot. All right, well, 57 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: let us uh but yeah, we need to talk about 58 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 1: this more. And so I'm very excited about our guest today. 59 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 1: We're going to be speaking with Nancy Fulbrace. She is 60 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: a Professor Emerit of Economics at UMAs Amhers and director 61 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: of the Program on Gender and Care Work at the 62 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 1: Political Economy Research Institute. Professor Fulbray, thank you so much 63 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: for coming on odd lots. 64 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 4: Thank you. I'm really looking forward to it. 65 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: So let's just start with like the premise of this conversation, 66 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: because I know we discussed it as this is a 67 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: care work and that encompasses multiple things. It feels like 68 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: an area that's been broken into some sense for long 69 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: before the pandemic. But I'm curious, like a do you 70 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: accept that premise that broken is a good way to 71 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: think about it, And how would you characterize the sort 72 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: of you know, is what have we seen for years 73 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: in this sector that feels wrong to people? 74 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 4: You know, I kind of agree with the broken word, 75 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 4: but I think that analyzing it completely in terms of markets, 76 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: even in terms of market failure, is a little bit misleading, 77 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 4: because what's really interesting about care provision is it involves 78 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 4: a lot of paid work, but also a lot of 79 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 4: unpaid work, and also a lot of government provision. And 80 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 4: it's the way that all of those sources of provisioning interact. 81 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 4: I think that give it some very particular characteristics and 82 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 4: in addition to the kind of characteristics of services in 83 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 4: general that make it different from manufacturing. 84 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 3: Well, on that note, maybe talk to us about the 85 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 3: landscape of childcare in the US and what it looks 86 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 3: like now, because my impression is, you know, there is 87 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 3: some government support, some families get subsidies, but for the 88 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 3: most part, you're talking about a sort of network of 89 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 3: primarily very small, independent childcare centers and or people who 90 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 3: are doing this work, you know, for free for their families. 91 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 3: If you have a family member who's maybe looking after 92 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 3: your kid or a friend's kid or whatever, So talk 93 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 3: to us about what it looks like currently well. 94 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 4: Rang out, it's pretty clear that people are having a 95 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 4: hard time finding the childcare that they need outside of 96 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 4: the home, and also that it's become increasingly expensive to 97 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 4: do it. And it's clearly making life difficult for a 98 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 4: lot of families and having some adverse effects on children 99 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 4: as well. I think it's particularly consequential for women, who 100 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 4: are often more constrained by childcare responsibilities than men are. 101 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 4: You know, part of this has to do with just 102 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 4: the nature of services that are different than it's different 103 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 4: than a producing a good, a physical good. It's long 104 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 4: been noted that services are not as susceptible to technical change. 105 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 4: The very nature of care means you've got to have 106 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 4: some face to face, hands on interaction. Maybe technology is 107 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 4: going to improve the quality or change the nature of it, 108 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 4: but it's basically a pretty labor intensive and emotionally intensive 109 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 4: kind of provision. It's one that people really value, that's 110 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 4: really important in terms of their quality of life and 111 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 4: child outcome. But it's not easy to put it together 112 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 4: with a world in which most families have to need 113 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 4: to income earners, so they need some help with childcare 114 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,799 Speaker 4: outside the home. Another thing I think it's worth mentioning 115 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 4: is that it used to be that parents could rely 116 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 4: on a pretty large network of neighbors and ken to 117 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 4: help them out with childcare. That's much less true than 118 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 4: it used to be. College educated workers in particular are 119 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 4: pretty unlikely now to live in the same area as 120 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 4: their parents. A lot of job requirements mean that people 121 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 4: have to be willing to move, so you know, there's 122 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 4: just less available ken nearby compared to what there used 123 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 4: to be, especially in large cities. And you know the 124 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 4: fact that more women are working means that more sort 125 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 4: of potential grandmothers are also working as well, so that's 126 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 4: another constriction. And the kind of supply of informal care, 127 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 4: so that's one of the things that's driving the problem. 128 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: So one of the things that's really striking, and you mentioned, 129 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: you know, particularly say in New York City, there's so 130 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: many people face childcare stress. People are tearing their hairs 131 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: out trying to find someone to watch their baby or 132 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: a young child and we see these charts of the 133 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: price is going crazy and the numbers that people have 134 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: to pay are pretty astronomical. And yet my impression is 135 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: that the actual wages of the people who work in 136 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: daycare centers or childcare centers are low, and so there 137 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: is seems to be you know, I know, you're sort 138 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: of the idea of a market failure is it. Maybe 139 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: perhaps not the best way of framing it, but this 140 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: does feel very intuitively like how people think of a 141 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: market failure. Why are the costs for the end consumer 142 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: surging at the same time the workers do not seem 143 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: to be reaping much of the benefit from it in 144 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: terms of rapid wage games. 145 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 4: You know, one of the most basic market failures that 146 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 4: often gets left out the discussion of market failure is 147 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 4: that people can't participate in a market unless they have 148 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 4: enough money. So what's happened with childcare is as inequality 149 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 4: has increased, the demand for childcare has gone up, and 150 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 4: the price of it has gone up. And what's happened 151 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 4: is a lot of low income families have been just 152 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 4: priced out of the market, so they're unable to buy it. 153 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 4: So it's kind of like the housing market, which tilted 154 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 4: very much towards high end housing and left US with 155 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 4: a huge growing population of homeless people that can't afford 156 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 4: housing because low income housing is so hard to find. 157 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 4: So I think that's one of the factors that's driving 158 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 4: the problem. But another one in New York City in particular, 159 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 4: is that for a long time, the kind of safety 160 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 4: valve was low age immigrants who were willing to work 161 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 4: under the table as nannies or as occasional babysitters or childcare. 162 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 4: We don't have very good statistics on what's happened to 163 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 4: that supply, but it's pretty clear that the combination of 164 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 4: the pandemic and immigration policy and cultural change in the 165 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 4: US has kind of reduced that that informal supply that 166 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 4: was once kind of helping lubricate the market. But you know, 167 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,559 Speaker 4: another factor is that is that the way the labor 168 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 4: market's supposed to work is that when there's a shortage 169 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 4: of labor, wages go up very rapidly. But it's really 170 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 4: hard to raise wages in the childcare industry for a 171 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 4: couple of reasons. One is a lot of it at 172 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 4: the lower end relies on government subsidies and government you know, 173 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 4: regulated rates and also on funding, and so if the 174 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 4: funding stream doesn't increase, those subsidized centers can't pay higher wages. Right. 175 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 4: So that's one kind of sticky point in the whole 176 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 4: you know, in the whole process. But then another one 177 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 4: is the example that I was you know, the point 178 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 4: that I was making is that if you have enough 179 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 4: money and there's a lot of scarcity, you can you 180 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 4: can bid up the prices for kind of individual providers 181 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 4: like nannies, right without really necessarily going through the daycare 182 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 4: center care system. So it's not you know, I guess 183 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 4: maybe a way to think about it is it's not 184 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 4: a homogeneous product. You know, it's coming from all these 185 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 4: different sources. And yeah, the market failure that you're referring 186 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 4: to is kind of a function of a more complex 187 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 4: institutional failure. I guess that's that's aggravating things. 188 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 3: So I definitely want to talk about inequality, inflation or 189 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 3: this idea that you have, you know, more price in 190 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 3: elastic consumers who might be driving up prices for other people. 191 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 3: But just before we do in terms of this idea 192 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 3: of childcare is expensive and you might have someone who's 193 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 3: paying two or three thousand dollars a month in New York. 194 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 2: City or elsewhere. 195 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 3: Where is that money going to If it's not going 196 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 3: to the wages of the workers. And if you know, 197 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 3: we were doing some prep on this before the episode, 198 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 3: if profit margins for a lot of these childcare centers 199 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 3: are relatively low, where does all that money go? 200 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: Yeah? 201 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, it's always a good idea to follow the money, 202 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 4: isn't it. But I guess one of the points I'm 203 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 4: trying to make is that, you know, buying talker services 204 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 4: on the informal market, like paying a nanny, probably those 205 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 4: rates are going up a lot. Those aren't really part 206 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 4: of the establishment you know, Bureer of Labor Statistics, establishment survey. 207 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 4: So what we're seeing with kind of low and stagnant 208 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:56,559 Speaker 4: wages is childcare centers, right, including some that are subsidized 209 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 4: through state and local funding. And you know, and yet 210 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 4: there's this, you know, there's this kind of boutique market 211 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 4: where people are really really paying super high prices and 212 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 4: that's not necessarily reflected in the aggregate statistics. 213 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 1: So so I mean, and you're sort of just putting 214 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: together what you're saying. Part of the problem is to 215 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: even talk about this as a market is there's so 216 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 1: many different markets. So you have some people who work 217 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 1: as nanni's and probably getting paid very well. You have 218 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are not getting paid any 219 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: nominal wage because they're taking care of their child or 220 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: they're taking care of their grandchild or something in the family. 221 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: And then you have daycare or childcare workers. And so 222 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: to even talk about this as like a market or 223 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: to say, well, we know that the average wage of 224 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: a childcare worker it's x is a flaw right from 225 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: the beginning, because there are just so many different types 226 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: of ways with which childcare is provisioned. 227 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's a really good summary. 228 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 2: Thank you. 229 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: I want to go back to the inequality aspect because 230 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: I think I find that really interesting. And do we 231 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: have any sense of like the distribution or the distribution 232 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: like how many workers are moving from say working might 233 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: have been working at a daycare or childcare center and 234 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: now working getting paid much more as a very rich 235 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: families nanny. Like what does the distribution there and that 236 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: flow of workers look like, And how much does the 237 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: sort of extreme wealth of some people in the ability 238 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,719 Speaker 1: to hire a nanny or obviously, in many cases or 239 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: at least some cases, multiple nannies, Like, how much does that, 240 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: in your view, sort of affecting the industry overall. 241 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, it's a really interesting empirical question. 242 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 4: To answer it, you need, basically, you need some administrative 243 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 4: data that follows people longitudinally, and there's often a lag 244 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 4: in our access to that kind of longitudinal data. I 245 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 4: recently worked on a study of human service workers in 246 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 4: the city of Seattle, and we were able to get 247 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 4: some administrative data showing that when people left human service jobs, 248 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 4: including childcare, for another job, they got a really big 249 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 4: pay increase. But that was you know, pre pandemic and 250 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 4: not really very up to date. But you know, another 251 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 4: way to think about it is the issue is that 252 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 4: there's some selection bias. That is, like, when you see 253 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 4: the what's happening to prices and wages, there's a lot 254 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 4: you're you know, you're not seeing the people that cannot 255 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 4: afford to buy childcare anymore, right, So some people are 256 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 4: paying a whole lot more for childcare, but some people 257 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 4: can't buy it at all. So what you're seeing is, yes, 258 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 4: the price is going up because poor people can no 259 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 4: longer afford to buy it. So that's why I think 260 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 4: the analogy to housing is kind of is kind of helpful. 261 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 4: You can actually make you know, affluent families are willing 262 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 4: and able to pay a lot a lot of money 263 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 4: for childcare and for other care services, right, But families 264 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 4: at the bottom are not earning a wage that's sufficiently 265 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 4: high to hire somebody to help them with that work 266 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 4: and still be able to pay their other bills. So 267 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 4: it's really kind of about a selection bias in the 268 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 4: in the in the market. That's why I think the 269 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 4: housing analogy, you know, kind of works. I mean, how 270 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 4: could we how can we have a shortage of housing 271 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 4: in a country where we have actually pretty pretty successful 272 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 4: and efficient housing industry, but it's building homes for the 273 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 4: affluent because the profit mersions hi are there? 274 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 3: Right, And both of these things, I mean, housing and 275 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 3: childcare would be considered essential services or things to have 276 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 3: in order to live a full, normal economic life. 277 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 2: And human life. But talk to us a little bit 278 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 2: about how we got here. 279 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 3: What are the choices that the US specifically made in 280 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 3: order to create a sort of private childcare industry or 281 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 3: I guess informal economy network. 282 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 4: You know, I don't think there were explicit choices. I 283 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 4: think it's kind of the chaotic result of a process 284 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 4: of kind of collective bickering and negotiation over who should 285 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 4: pay the cost of rearing the next generation. That's why 286 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 4: I think it's really important to think about the big picture, 287 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 4: like who should pay those costs. And the economics profession, 288 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 4: like the social sciences in general, has kind of treated 289 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 4: child rearing as though it's sort of a you know, 290 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 4: a luxury good. It's a consumption good. You know, having 291 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 4: a child is like having a pet. It's your pet. 292 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 4: You should take care of it. It's your business. And 293 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 4: now we're beginning to realize that that's a terrible metaphor 294 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 4: because raising children is actually a really important component of 295 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 4: economic sustainability, the future labor force, the people who are 296 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 4: going to pay the taxes that are going to support 297 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 4: us in our old age. So I think it's sort 298 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 4: of coming, you know, I think this is becoming. There's 299 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 4: more realization about this, looking at kind of the future 300 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 4: of medicare and social security, the implications of a below 301 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 4: replacement fertility rate. It's like, oh, gee, you know, it's 302 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 4: going to be a problem if we don't have a 303 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 4: working age population that's big enough to help us meet 304 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 4: our names as we grow older. 305 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: Can you talk through Suppose a family that cannot afford childcare, 306 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 1: either a private NANU or even a sort of a 307 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: more public option by public, I mean, or a sort 308 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: of commercially available option at like a childcare or daycare center. 309 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: What happens? I assume the burden of that in many families, 310 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: you know, overwhelmingly falls on the mother. But what is 311 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: the sort of the cost of that in terms of Okay, 312 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: you have one mother who is able to find childcare, 313 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: another mother who can't find it or can't afford it 314 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: in terms of what is the cost to them in 315 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 1: terms of their life, in terms of earnings and so 316 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: forth from that unequal distribution of available childcare. 317 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, first, one big manifestation of it is 318 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 4: resorting to part time or temporary work, you know, cycling 319 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 4: in and out of the labor force. Like maybe you 320 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 4: have an informal childcare arrangement COB together with a working schedule, 321 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 4: and then your child gets sick. What do you do? 322 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 4: You figure out a way? You know, you basically have 323 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 4: to quit your job. You might hope that you get 324 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 4: unemployment insurance. Then you have to kind of rely on 325 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 4: friends and family, and then you go out and try 326 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 4: and find another job where you can actually combine that 327 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 4: with responsibilities for looking after your kids, or you look 328 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 4: for neighbors or can you're willing to trade or exchange 329 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 4: services for that. That's kind of a stressful and time 330 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 4: consuming process, and you know, it has pretty significant consequences 331 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 4: for lifetime earnings because anybody in the labor market who 332 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 4: doesn't have a sort of consistent record of full time 333 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 4: job tenure, it gets stuck at the bottom and it's 334 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 4: not a real candidate for moving up the patiental ladder. 335 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 4: So I think it really contributes a lot to the 336 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 4: you know, kind of a serious lack of income mobility 337 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:13,439 Speaker 4: for mothers. I mean, the paradox is that there's a 338 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 4: lot of evidence that high earning mothers actually pay a 339 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 4: bigger quote unquote cost for motherhood because when they take 340 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,880 Speaker 4: time out from their careers, the penalty is very high 341 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 4: because their earnings are very high, so they're taking a 342 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 4: bigger hit in terms of earnings. But almost all of 343 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 4: those women are also married to high earners and that 344 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 4: provides a kind of buffer or safety net that reduces 345 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,719 Speaker 4: the impact of the motherhood penalty. Whereas women who are 346 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 4: stuck in very part time kind of secondary labor market 347 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 4: jobs are basically stuck there for life without much opportunity 348 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 4: to you know, once their kids grow up and leave home, 349 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 4: they could look for a better job, but they have 350 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 4: no employment. You know, their employment history and their employment 351 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 4: record kind of condemns them to it. Pretty low trajectory. 352 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 3: So just on this note, you know, Joe and I 353 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 3: started the conversation talking about the supply chain disruptions that 354 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 3: we saw during the pandemic, and of course the pandemic 355 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 3: was also extremely disruptive for the childcare industry and for 356 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 3: anyone who had you know, younger children and suddenly had 357 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 3: to figure out what to do with them while they 358 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 3: were perhaps working from home and. 359 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 2: Things like that. Talk to us about what. 360 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 3: The pandemic showed about this sort of economic trajectory, because 361 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 3: I remember, there's been a lot of high profile research saying, 362 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 3: for instance, that the gender wage gap went up during 363 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 3: the pandemic because a lot of women had to reduce 364 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 3: their hours in order to look after their children and 365 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 3: things like that. 366 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, what we know from Timyus research is that women 367 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 4: increased their hours of childcare and house work significantly. I 368 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 4: mean men did too, partly because of working of you know, 369 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 4: being home work right, but women's the increase in women's 370 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 4: workload was clearly bigger than that of men. I think 371 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 4: there's another finding from time use research. You know, most 372 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 4: of most time use research is based on the American 373 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 4: Time Youse Survey, which is a really interesting representative sample 374 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 4: of the US population that just asks people, you know, 375 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 4: what did you do when you woke up? What did 376 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 4: you do after that? What did you know? What did 377 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 4: you do then? What did you do? So it gives 378 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 4: us a real sense of how much unpaid work was 379 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 4: being performed, both before and after the pandemic. And the 380 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 4: survey asked the question a bunch of questions about active childcare, 381 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:43,239 Speaker 4: like how much time did you spend? Well, it's not 382 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 4: asking these questions directly, but it's taking the responses that 383 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 4: people give to the survey and then it's coding them 384 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 4: into categories like here's the time that people respond reported 385 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 4: feeding their children, Here's the time that people reported on 386 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,919 Speaker 4: average transporting their children. Here's the time that parents were 387 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 4: on average reading aloud to their children. And those active 388 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 4: childcare responsibilities are pretty they're pretty binding, but they're not 389 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 4: really great that they're not really that high in terms 390 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 4: of hours average hours per day. What's really much greater, 391 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 4: for a much greater temporal demand for parents of young 392 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 4: children is what's called supervisory time or in your care time, 393 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,400 Speaker 4: the fact that somebody has to be home and available 394 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 4: or on call with children. And so this difference really 395 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 4: explains a lot. For instance, when parents utilize paid childcare services, 396 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 4: they're not really reducing their active childcare that much. They're 397 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 4: coming home from work and they're engaging with their kids, 398 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 4: they're getting their kids ready to go to school in 399 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 4: the morning. There's still a lot of active care. What 400 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,719 Speaker 4: childcare really reduces out of home childcare really does for 401 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 4: parents is it reduces supervisory constraints. Okay, it's literally against 402 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 4: the law in most states to leave a child under 403 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 4: the age of nine or even under the age of 404 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 4: twelve alone in a house. So during the pandemic, here's 405 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 4: what's interesting, a lot of people were working at home. 406 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 4: What the time you survey shows is that supervisory time 407 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 4: went way up, active childcare actually went down. Why is that, Well, 408 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 4: I think it's because there's kind of a quantity quality 409 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 4: trade off, and if you spend all of your day 410 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 4: with kids around and being available or on call. Right, 411 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 4: a lot of little small interruptions and a lot of interactions. Right, 412 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 4: maybe you feel less need to dedicate two hours to 413 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 4: them in the evening, reading aloud or playing games or 414 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 4: something like that. It's sort of like childcare kind of 415 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 4: spreads out into more diffuse activities. Then, you know, when 416 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 4: they're working parents, the schedule is kind of like this 417 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 4: huege bustle in the morning to get the kids off 418 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 4: and then this pressure to pick them up after school, 419 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 4: which is a pretty big temporal demand on working parents schedules. 420 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 4: But then in the evenings there's this very concentrated peak 421 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 4: of time feeding the child, bathing the child, reading aloud 422 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 4: to the child, and sort of like baking up for 423 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 4: not having seen the child during the day. There's this 424 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 4: very concerted cultivation that takes place. 425 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 1: Definitely relate to everything you just said there. Now I'm curious, though, 426 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 1: the value of unpaid childcare, and I'm curious, like, a, 427 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: how do you go about trying to put a number 428 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 1: on that and be like, how useful in terms of 429 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: your analytical framework is trying to put some sort of 430 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 1: dollar amount on how much of that exists in the economy. 431 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's really important because it kind of 432 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 4: reveals the significance of the care sector of the economy 433 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 4: as a whole, taking reports of the number of hours 434 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 4: spent an activity and multiplying them times a replacement wage cost, 435 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 4: like what you would pay to hire someone to do 436 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 4: that work. But obviously there are a lot of decisions 437 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 4: to make about how to define the time and what 438 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,439 Speaker 4: replacement wage to choose for that calculation. You know, what 439 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 4: you get is not really an accurate estimate, but it's 440 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 4: a kind of a lower bound estimate. It's sort of saying, 441 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 4: at the very least, if parents withdrew their services and 442 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 4: we had to pay somebody to take their place, what 443 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 4: would we have to pay. So I think it's really careful. 444 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's really important not to suggest 445 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 4: that it's you know, you're capturing the value of parenting. No, no, no, 446 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 4: you're just you're capturing some kind of counterfactual question about 447 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 4: what it would cost to replace the time that parents provide, 448 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 4: And it just gives well, one thing that it shows, 449 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 4: I think is that really the market economy is a 450 00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 4: pretty pretty you know, big but not that huge chunk 451 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 4: of the total economy. 452 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: So what do we talk about in terms of numbers 453 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 1: or like sort of like what does it look like? 454 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 4: Well, a lot of the estimates are kind of all 455 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 4: over the place because they're using different wage rates and 456 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 4: different definitions of time. But they it's kind of from 457 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,919 Speaker 4: between twenty five percent and forty percent of GDP is 458 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 4: what a measurement of unpaid work comes to in my work. 459 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 4: I mean, I've actually spent a lot of time working 460 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,439 Speaker 4: with the American Time Youth Survey on exactly this question. 461 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 4: And what I've found is that a lot of estimates 462 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 4: only counted active childcare, and they basically ignored time that 463 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,640 Speaker 4: children were reported as being in my care, the supervisory 464 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 4: constraints and if you include I mean, which doesn't make sense. 465 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 4: That's what do you hire a babysitter for. You don't 466 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 4: hire a babysitter to you know, provide developmental care. And 467 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 4: they're usually sitting there watching TV while or playing the 468 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 4: video games while they're supervising kids. So if you include 469 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 4: that supervisory time, it really increases the total value of 470 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 4: unpaid work. Or here's a really interesting just to step 471 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 4: step back from childcare a minute and just ask the 472 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 4: question of all of the hours that people spend doing 473 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 4: work in the United States today, how much of that 474 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 4: happens in the labor market, how much of it is paid? 475 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 4: And here for this, for this little mental exercise, we're 476 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 4: just going to say, we're going to define work is 477 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 4: anything you could pay somebody else to do for you. 478 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,199 Speaker 4: So it doesn't include leisure. You can't pay somebody to 479 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 4: have a good time for you. It doesn't include sleep, 480 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 4: you know, it doesn't include bathing or a. 481 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 3: Lot of personal curtaining, gardening. 482 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 4: It's cleaning, it's gardening, it's managing, it's shopping. Right, it's 483 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 4: fifty percent of all labor hours in the US. 484 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 2: Wow. 485 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 3: So just on this note, you know, you made the 486 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 3: point earlier that having children is important for both the 487 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 3: economy and humanity. 488 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 2: I believe for a while. But the children are our future? 489 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 2: Is that what they said? 490 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 4: Yes, so supposed to see it. 491 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 3: So I won't subject all of our listeners to me singing. 492 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 3: But just on that note, who should bear the cost 493 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 3: of childcare? I mean, this seems to be the ultimate question. 494 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 4: Yes it is. It is ultimate question, and it's so 495 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 4: seldom that anyone ever asks it outright, So I'm really 496 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 4: glad and I wish I could give you like a 497 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 4: really specific answer, but I think it's sort of a 498 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 4: matter of kind of democratic deliberation. I mean, certainly parents 499 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 4: should pay a very significant share of the cost of 500 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 4: raising children, because they're deriving a lot of satisfaction and 501 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 4: enjoyments and a lot of i think improvement in their 502 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 4: own kind of capabilities as a result of being a parent. Right. 503 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 4: But it's also true that fellow citizens and tax payers 504 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 4: and benefits recipients are also getting some really important benefits 505 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 4: from kids. And there's some really interesting efforts to look 506 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 4: at this what's called a fiscal externality. You know, like, okay, 507 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 4: you're raising a child. We can project what that child 508 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 4: is going to pay in taxes over their lifetime, and 509 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 4: then we could subtract what we think that child is 510 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 4: going to get in benefits over their lifetime. Right, and 511 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 4: that net fiscal benefit in the US is pretty high. So, Joe, 512 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 4: if you're a parent, you're creating probably a fiscal a 513 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 4: fiscal externality that in the sense that your child is 514 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 4: going to grow up to pay more in taxes than 515 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 4: they get in benefits. 516 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 1: Sitting aside parents versus nonparents, or what about you know, like, 517 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: how much of the answer is to put, crudely sitting 518 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 1: aside the specific design higher taxes on the rich to 519 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: fund the provision of public childcare for everyone else, especially 520 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: when talking about the fact that there's a number more 521 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: and more people who are priced out of childcare overwhelmingly. 522 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: You obviously have a growing but small percentage of the 523 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: people that can afford one or multiple nannies. How much 524 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: of that is as simple on some level choice of 525 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 1: like progressive taxation either through income or the consumption of 526 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: childcare services to fund it on a more broad scale basis. 527 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 4: Oh, I think that's you know, a very clear strategy, 528 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 4: and it's one that I completely support and arguing for 529 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 4: more basically more public revision of care services and more 530 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 4: support for unpaid care by increasing progressive taxes. And you know, 531 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 4: I think that was kind of the motivating force behind 532 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 4: the Build Back Better legislation that was the Democrats proposed 533 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 4: in the fall, And I think we can push for 534 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 4: that without you know, having a specific estimate. But there's 535 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 4: also this kind of interesting, I think, philosophical question, which is, well, 536 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 4: just how much should the cost of raising children be socialized? Right, 537 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 4: we've already socialized them to some extent. The problem is 538 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 4: we've we've socialized the benefits of raising children more than 539 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 4: we've socialized the costs. Okay, so the social security system 540 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 4: in Medicare has socialized the benefits. So your children aren't 541 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 4: going to support you in your old age, but the 542 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 4: younger generation as a whole is going to do that. Right, 543 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 4: So it has literally created a redistribution from parents to 544 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 4: non parents. And by non parents, I don't mean, you know, 545 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 4: biologically nonparents. I'm defining parents as people who devote a 546 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 4: lot of money and time and effort to raising kids. 547 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 4: They're you know, they're creating a public, you know, a 548 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 4: fiscal externality, and I think that that provides a kind of, 549 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 4: I think an additional argument for more public support for parenting. 550 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 2: Right just on this notion. 551 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 3: I mean, my my impression of the existing system is 552 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 3: that there are subsidies for low income families for some 553 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 3: childcare services, but there aren't a lot. And again, correct 554 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 3: me if I'm wrong. I don't think there are a 555 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 3: lot of government run childcare centers. And I'm wondering, like 556 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 3: what form should government support for childcare services actually come in, 557 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 3: because again in America, I can imagine, you know, if 558 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 3: you put a proposal on the table saying we're going 559 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 3: to have government daycare centers. I feel like there is 560 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 3: there is a portion of the population who would instinctively 561 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 3: find that dystopian or sinister in some way. 562 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: And if I could just tack onto that question, why 563 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: is it that from your view, we've sort of accepted 564 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 1: this idea of like, we do have government childcare basically 565 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 1: starting at the age five, and so it's like once 566 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 1: you hit kindergarten or whatever, like, there is public school 567 00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: that goes through the end of high school, which yes, 568 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 1: of course there is an educational component, but every parent, no, 569 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: it is a big part of the value is that 570 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: childcare services. So just to tack on, why would it 571 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,959 Speaker 1: be so controversial to say, okay, we're going to have 572 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 1: the equivalent of public school from birth or from three 573 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: months or whatever. 574 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think that's a question kind of 575 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 4: about the political and cultural climate and the divisions that 576 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 4: have emerged, you know, partly as a result of the 577 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 4: very transit inequality that we started out kind of emphasizing. 578 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 4: I think it's pretty clear from international comparisons that integrating 579 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 4: childcare into the public school system is a really good idea. 580 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 4: And if we think that the public school system is 581 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 4: too inflexible or not responsive to the needs of parents, 582 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 4: we should that should be part of our process of 583 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 4: changing the whole thing. I mean, one issue that often 584 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 4: gets left out in this discussion is that, you know, 585 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 4: ending the public school day at three o'clock in the 586 00:33:55,560 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 4: afternoon is a tremendous inefficiency and anachronism as our long 587 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 4: summer vacations. And so I think what we should be 588 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 4: pushing for is kind of a bigger rethink of public 589 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 4: education and childcare that is more kind of in keeping 590 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 4: with the technological and economic changes that have occurred over 591 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 4: the last fifty years. 592 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 3: Or hear me out, we reduce working hours to match 593 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 3: school times. 594 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,360 Speaker 4: Yes, that should be part of it. 595 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 2: And we all have summer vacation. I prefer that solution. 596 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 2: Well we just take off all. 597 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 4: Yeah. 598 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,480 Speaker 1: I like the idea of everyone just getting it. I 599 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 1: grew up with both of my parents were teachers, so 600 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 1: it's like they had summer vacation. 601 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,280 Speaker 2: But yeah, I like this idea. 602 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: It is crazy too, that like this major childcare service 603 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: that the government provides, like we're just gonna take four 604 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 1: months off parents, good luck, deal with it, find a 605 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: camp if you can afford it. It really is crazy. 606 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,799 Speaker 4: And you know, yeah, children need time off, but why 607 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 4: not give them time off in a different way than 608 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:59,399 Speaker 4: you know, three and a half uninterrupted months. I think 609 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 4: there's a lot of hope we're thinking about that. And 610 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,160 Speaker 4: I totally agree with Tracy's point about reducing the paid 611 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 4: work making it easier for people to choose a lower, 612 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 4: lower working hours. And here again, this is why I 613 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 4: think emphasizing the value of unpaid work helps that argument, 614 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 4: because when you reduce pressure for increased hours of employment, 615 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 4: people aren't using that time to goof off or couch surf. 616 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,439 Speaker 4: A lot of times, they're using that time to take 617 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 4: care of their family, to take care of their communities, 618 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 4: to volunteer, and you know, and really for really good 619 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 4: activities and sort of this notion that any reduction in 620 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 4: hours of employment is a kind of quote unquote loss 621 00:35:43,520 --> 00:36:01,320 Speaker 4: of output is just camouflage. 622 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 1: Can ask you mentioned international comparisons about merging the sort 623 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,919 Speaker 1: of childcare and daycare system with the public school. Who 624 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 1: stands out to you when you look around the world, 625 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,920 Speaker 1: where is it being done right or where is it 626 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: being done more equitably. 627 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:20,560 Speaker 4: Well, the Scandinavian countries have a very integrated system, but 628 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,480 Speaker 4: the French system is also very appealing because it includes 629 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,840 Speaker 4: not just a system where preschool teachers earn the same 630 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:32,799 Speaker 4: as regular teachers and universal, it also includes all these 631 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 4: things like summer camp experiences are built into the school system, 632 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,800 Speaker 4: and medical care and health checkups are kind of integrated 633 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 4: with the school system. So it's kind of a particular 634 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 4: triumph of the French system. But you know, there's also 635 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 4: a lot to learn from what's happened in New York 636 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 4: City with Deblasio's expansion of childcare, which has raised a 637 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 4: lot of interesting questions and points a really valuable lesson 638 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,400 Speaker 4: for the rest of the country. I'm not an expert 639 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,359 Speaker 4: on the particular features of it, but I know that 640 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:12,239 Speaker 4: it's contributed significantly to increasing the wages of chalk care 641 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 4: workers in the city, and that there's been sort of 642 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,280 Speaker 4: it's been easier for them because it's now a city 643 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,720 Speaker 4: mandated you know, it's now part of the public sector. 644 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,240 Speaker 4: In a sense, it's made it easier for those daycare 645 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 4: workers to bargain for higher wages. 646 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 3: Interesting this is the universal preschool program. Although I think 647 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 3: there was some criticism of it that it actually ended 648 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 3: up with some preschool businesses closing because it's sort of 649 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 3: sucked away a lot of the older kids that preschools 650 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 3: actually make money on. 651 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's you know, it's not a total success story, 652 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 4: but it is like a really important learning experience. I mean, 653 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,439 Speaker 4: I think they've also had they in some ways seem 654 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 4: to have overestimated the constituency for all day childcare and 655 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 4: so they have a little bit of an idle capacity 656 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,760 Speaker 4: right now. So yeah, but you know, we should be 657 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,920 Speaker 4: you know, talk about a really good theme for a podcast. 658 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,840 Speaker 4: That would be a really great one, right Just what 659 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,680 Speaker 4: what has happened in the city. What have people learned 660 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 4: in the city from this really important experiment. 661 00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 3: So just going back to the premise of this conversation 662 00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 3: and the intro where we were talking about, you know, 663 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,160 Speaker 3: inflation and services versus inflation and consumer goods and things 664 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,839 Speaker 3: like that in wages as well, what do you think 665 00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 3: childcare says about the overall direction of the economy or 666 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,279 Speaker 3: can you sort of draw out some big picture economic 667 00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:43,800 Speaker 3: points based on the childcare example. 668 00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:48,279 Speaker 4: Well, I think we should direct more attention to what 669 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,120 Speaker 4: I would call the care sector, not just childcare. But 670 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,680 Speaker 4: see what childcare and elder care and healthcare all have 671 00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 4: in common and how important they are to the economy. 672 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:05,400 Speaker 4: And all three of those sectors involve collaboration between family 673 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 4: members and paid workers for private businesses and government, and 674 00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,960 Speaker 4: they've all evolved in this very ad hoc way that 675 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 4: often kind of you know, rigidifies into kind of institutional 676 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 4: inertia that makes them very difficult to change. But one 677 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 4: of the things that's been happening, for instance, in the 678 00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:30,279 Speaker 4: in the healthcare industry, is that hospitals and doctors have 679 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,839 Speaker 4: begun paying a lot more attention to who the at 680 00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:38,759 Speaker 4: home caregiver is and when they send somebody home from 681 00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 4: the hospital, who is the person who's going to be 682 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 4: helping with medication, who is the person who's going to 683 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:48,880 Speaker 4: be organizing the you know, uh, post operative care and 684 00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,160 Speaker 4: so forth. They have have really realized that this is 685 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:56,600 Speaker 4: a crucial part of the overall landscape of care provision. 686 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,759 Speaker 4: That you know, you can you can do a really 687 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,080 Speaker 4: great surgery on somebody, and if they go home to 688 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,759 Speaker 4: a situation where there's nobody there to be helping them 689 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,799 Speaker 4: figure out how to take care of themselves and to 690 00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,880 Speaker 4: kind of meet their needs, then they're back in the 691 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 4: hospital the next day. So just there's so many different synergies, right, 692 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,919 Speaker 4: and there's so little, relatively little attention to the care 693 00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:25,120 Speaker 4: sector and what it means. You know, we know that 694 00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 4: there are these really significant changes in mortality in the US, 695 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 4: the so called deaths of despair, deaths from suicide, deaths 696 00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,520 Speaker 4: from drug overdose, deaths from alcoholism, and it's such a 697 00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,840 Speaker 4: it's so indicative of a kind of toxic effects as 698 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:47,239 Speaker 4: something that's going on in the economy, and you know, 699 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 4: it's very consequential. It's not just a huge loss of 700 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,600 Speaker 4: human life, it's also you know, just a tremendous loss 701 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:58,080 Speaker 4: to families and communities. To have this kind of I 702 00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,880 Speaker 4: think I would describe it as a destruction of the 703 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:05,000 Speaker 4: social climate. There's something about the social climate that's just 704 00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:10,680 Speaker 4: creating a lot of stress and mental illness. And I 705 00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:14,560 Speaker 4: think care provision, you know, ineffective care provision is part 706 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,760 Speaker 4: of that. Part of it is that families are less stable. 707 00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,600 Speaker 4: Part of it is that families get less support. Part 708 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,480 Speaker 4: of it is that people are just very much isolated 709 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 4: and you know, disembedded from their families and communities. And 710 00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,279 Speaker 4: so it's so important to see that as an economic 711 00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:34,720 Speaker 4: as well as a social problem. 712 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 1: I just have one last question. You said something interesting 713 00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:44,000 Speaker 1: about workers with public provision of childcare, workers able to 714 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:47,200 Speaker 1: gain more bargaining power. And a theme that we've talked 715 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,239 Speaker 1: about recently is that bargaining power sometimes comes with when 716 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,680 Speaker 1: you have a sort of single purchaser of the labor. 717 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,279 Speaker 1: And so whether it's workers in Amazon warehouses being able 718 00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,400 Speaker 1: to organize the warehouse sector because they can point to Amazon, 719 00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:05,279 Speaker 1: or even tenants being able to organize because of institutional 720 00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:09,320 Speaker 1: landlords on Wall Street, the fact that childcare is so fragmented, 721 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,000 Speaker 1: the fact that many of them are in people's living 722 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:15,080 Speaker 1: rooms or small businesses with five employees or so forth. 723 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,160 Speaker 1: How much does that make it harder for workers to 724 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,680 Speaker 1: organize and sort of whether it's collectively bargain or just 725 00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,920 Speaker 1: push for higher wages into some manner because the because 726 00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,520 Speaker 1: the industry is just so fragmented. 727 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,000 Speaker 4: See, that's a good question. I don't really know exactly 728 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,480 Speaker 4: how to person I mean, I would say first that 729 00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,000 Speaker 4: there is some evidence that public schools are kind of 730 00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,600 Speaker 4: a monopsogy. And then one reason that teachers are so 731 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,879 Speaker 4: poorly paid overall in the US and their pay has 732 00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,560 Speaker 4: declined in relative terms recently. It's partly that, you know, 733 00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,720 Speaker 4: political the political climate has led to cuts and funding 734 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:53,800 Speaker 4: that have made it very difficult for them to bargain, 735 00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,279 Speaker 4: even though they're very effectively unionized, and even though they've 736 00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 4: had a few kind of union successes. So I think, 737 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:03,640 Speaker 4: you know, there's sort of a big question mark about 738 00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:08,400 Speaker 4: the efficacy of public sector unionism if voters and if 739 00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 4: you know, people in general don't, you know, aren't convinced 740 00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,640 Speaker 4: that spending on care provision is going to pay off 741 00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,759 Speaker 4: for them and for the economy as a whole. So 742 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,520 Speaker 4: I think that's why i'm you know, I tend to 743 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,880 Speaker 4: hammer on the look like everybody would benefit, everybody wh 744 00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,120 Speaker 4: would benefit. But I think the biggest for people for 745 00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,759 Speaker 4: workers in small childcare or family daycare centers, I think 746 00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:39,640 Speaker 4: a bigger obstacle for them is that they know that 747 00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,879 Speaker 4: the demand is very elastic. If they know that if 748 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,360 Speaker 4: they ask for wages that the company for higher wages, 749 00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,720 Speaker 4: that the center they're working for is going to lose 750 00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:53,840 Speaker 4: clients or lose customers. And a lot of studies of 751 00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:58,480 Speaker 4: the childcare workforce show that they feel very caught by 752 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,799 Speaker 4: this dilemma like, Gosh, I really need higher wages, but 753 00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,080 Speaker 4: if if they paid us higher wages, these families wouldn't 754 00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,560 Speaker 4: be able to afford to pay to pay for these services. 755 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 4: And I think that's a particular dilemma of providing services 756 00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,080 Speaker 4: for a you know, a load to middle income population. 757 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,759 Speaker 1: Well, Nancy fall Bray, thank you so much for coming 758 00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,680 Speaker 1: on the podcast. Fascinating discussion, huge topic that I'm sure 759 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:28,239 Speaker 1: we will revisit, and yeah, I appreciate you joining us. 760 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:29,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, it was fun to talk. 761 00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:44,640 Speaker 2: Thanks, thank you, Thanks so much, Nancy. That was great, Tracy. 762 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,400 Speaker 1: I thought there were a number of really interesting themes 763 00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,160 Speaker 1: from that. I mean, one is, I think just simply 764 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,520 Speaker 1: this idea of like how hard it is even to 765 00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,680 Speaker 1: talk about like a childcare market or a childcare wage 766 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,600 Speaker 1: or a price that people pay for childcare, just given 767 00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,840 Speaker 1: the plethora of different options available, whether it's nannies, public centers, 768 00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:09,160 Speaker 1: private centers, you know, subsidized centers, family work, et cetera. 769 00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,920 Speaker 1: Just like even just describing what the industry is clearly 770 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:13,799 Speaker 1: a challenge. 771 00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,480 Speaker 3: Totally, And I feel like we actually need to speak 772 00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,719 Speaker 3: to a preschool manager or something because I'm still going. 773 00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,040 Speaker 2: To really yeah, I think we have a guess. 774 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,719 Speaker 3: I'm still confused about where the money is going. You know, 775 00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,799 Speaker 3: people are paying thousands a month, where is that actually going, 776 00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,760 Speaker 3: if not to the wages of the carers. I suspect 777 00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:33,520 Speaker 3: it's going on things like rent and maybe like regulations 778 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,279 Speaker 3: and things like that, but I would love to talk 779 00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,280 Speaker 3: more about it. And then the other thing that stood 780 00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,000 Speaker 3: out to me was this idea of inflation inequality, which 781 00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 3: is something that's been coming up a lot recently. I 782 00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,359 Speaker 3: think the New York Times called it the gentrification of 783 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,960 Speaker 3: the economy. So this idea that you know, businesses are 784 00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:55,360 Speaker 3: increasingly catering to as the wealth gap gets bigger, a 785 00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:59,440 Speaker 3: portion of the population that is more price inelastic and 786 00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 3: that can afford these services. And that kind of gets 787 00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,680 Speaker 3: to Nancy's point as well, about how we're only really 788 00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:08,319 Speaker 3: seeing part of the data set right because people who 789 00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,520 Speaker 3: cannot afford these prices are just not paying for childcare. 790 00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,280 Speaker 1: Nancy brought up the comparison, but the comparison to housing 791 00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,040 Speaker 1: seems really acted. We've done episodes. It's like, no one 792 00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,680 Speaker 1: wants to build this quote starter home unquote because there's 793 00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,840 Speaker 1: just so much more money to build premium houses to 794 00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:28,919 Speaker 1: build you know, premium multi family apartments and so things 795 00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,359 Speaker 1: like that, and so you know, one of the things 796 00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,240 Speaker 1: is that it sort of drives home like inequality is costly. 797 00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:37,839 Speaker 1: It's costly for society, and you know, people like I think, 798 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,480 Speaker 1: you know, in our system, we sort of celebrate getting rich, 799 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:43,799 Speaker 1: et cetera. And probably you know that seems fine, but 800 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,279 Speaker 1: like there is a cost to having so much concentration 801 00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:51,000 Speaker 1: of wealth in certain hands such that it, you know, 802 00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:54,359 Speaker 1: can diminish the pool of available childcare, which then gets 803 00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 1: to Nancy's other key point, which is, like part of 804 00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:59,000 Speaker 1: the reasons is that a market is because there is 805 00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:03,080 Speaker 1: like a social positive externality towards like raising children that, 806 00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,560 Speaker 1: like any everyone benefits from. I think she called it 807 00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:06,600 Speaker 1: a fiscal. 808 00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:07,920 Speaker 2: Surplus, was fiscal externality. 809 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,440 Speaker 1: Fiscal externality that is like just sort of not there 810 00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,600 Speaker 1: in most things that we call like a market. 811 00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,080 Speaker 3: The other thing I wish we'd been able to talk 812 00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,279 Speaker 3: a little bit more about, but the choices that go 813 00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,000 Speaker 3: into the current system. And I totally take Nancy's point 814 00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:24,600 Speaker 3: that probably there wasn't anyone you know, thinking about this 815 00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,120 Speaker 3: specifically over the course of fifty years and coming up 816 00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:31,600 Speaker 3: with the coordinated, holistic approach. But I do also think 817 00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,320 Speaker 3: one of the reasons we got to the current system 818 00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:39,400 Speaker 3: is because of let's say, complicated attitudes towards women actually 819 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,920 Speaker 3: working you know, thirty or forty or fifty or sixty 820 00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:43,359 Speaker 3: years ago. 821 00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's so much just even this question of like, 822 00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:48,960 Speaker 1: well is what con said labor, which I thought was 823 00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,520 Speaker 1: an interesting sort of discussion that I hadn't really thought 824 00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:54,520 Speaker 1: of in terms of like, Okay, there are things that 825 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,960 Speaker 1: we call like active childcare parents, and then there are 826 00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:59,640 Speaker 1: things it's like were you're just there to like sort 827 00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:04,239 Speaker 1: of supervise them, pretty like deep questions that are sort 828 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,839 Speaker 1: of intensely cultural that sort of perhaps inform like how 829 00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,440 Speaker 1: these how the how the system evolved in the way 830 00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:10,759 Speaker 1: it did. 831 00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,359 Speaker 2: Absolutely, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there, 832 00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:13,799 Speaker 2: all right? 833 00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,640 Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the Odd Loots Podcast. 834 00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,279 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at 835 00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:20,120 Speaker 3: Tracy Alloway. 836 00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,720 Speaker 1: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter 837 00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:26,240 Speaker 1: at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Nancy Fulbray. She's at 838 00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:30,759 Speaker 1: en Fulbray. Follow our producers Carman Rodriguez at Carmen Arman 839 00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,640 Speaker 1: and dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot and check out all 840 00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,000 Speaker 1: of our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. 841 00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,000 Speaker 1: And for more odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg dot 842 00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,560 Speaker 1: com slash odd Lots, where we post transcripts, We have 843 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,359 Speaker 1: a blog and a newsletter, and you can even check 844 00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,760 Speaker 1: out our discord where we chat twenty four to seven 845 00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,760 Speaker 1: listeners hanging out. Go to discord dot gg slash odd Lots. 846 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,160 Speaker 1: Really fun conversations there. Thanks for listening 847 00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:00,759 Speaker 4: In