1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. This is the time 7 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: of year when people get a chance to scare everybody 8 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: with potentially negative predictions for the year ahead, or potentially 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: cheer them up with positive predictions. Here with a perhaps 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: a negative one, but but a very important one, is 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: a Gran, a senior software and I T Services analyst 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence Umora. One of your predictions for two 13 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen is that cyber attacks are going to be 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: the biggest threat to the global economy. Can you please elaborate, Thanks, Lisa. So, 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: you know, cyber attacks have been going on for a 16 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: very long period of time and it's nothing new, frankly, 17 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: but what we have seen, at least in the past 18 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: six months, is that both the number of attacks and 19 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: the sophistications of these attacks have actually accelerated. So we are, 20 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: you know, running in terms of you know, new malvery 21 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: discovered every day is growing at a rate we have 22 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: never seen before. So as you look into businesses that 23 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: are unable to protect themselves properly, uh, I mean we 24 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: just saw the big attack on div Ian, which you know, 25 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: paralyzed a lot of the UM Internet infrastructure for a while. UM. 26 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: If you could have those kinds of attacks on critical 27 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: infrastructures of a country, whether it would be you know, transportation, 28 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: logistics utilities, you know, those has the capacity to seriously 29 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: dent the economy of a particular country. Ana, can you 30 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: speak about shadow brokers because I was reading a story 31 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: having to do with a dump of information, aation that 32 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: came supposedly from the NSA, the National Security Agency, and 33 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: these are cyber weapons that are for sale on the internet. 34 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: Is that something that can be stopped or is you 35 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 1: just have to accept that this stuff is always going 36 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: to be there. So we have to accept that there 37 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: is a lot of bad stuff that's coming almost for 38 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: every industry, every vertical, every government. And the problem is 39 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: that no individual, no individual company UM, no matter what 40 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: their sizes, would have a very difficult time to block 41 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: any of these things. Because of the changing nature of 42 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: these attacks, so it is it is going to be, 43 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: you know it truly an extremely collaborative effort that would 44 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: involve both the private sector and the public sector, and 45 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: government's really big involvement in it to come up with 46 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: a system of information sharing for these attacks, just so 47 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: that people are aware, you know, off of what kind 48 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: of new malverda is coming out? Anara, can you walk 49 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: us through how a malware attack could directly lead to 50 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: a substantial slowdown in a specific economy? I mean, think 51 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: about it if in just in the financial services vertical, Um, 52 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: if I get up tomorrow morning and I don't find 53 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: my money into the Schwab account, I mean, what would 54 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: it what would it do? What? What? Think about the 55 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: stock exchanges, think about the airlines, think about you know, 56 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: just the power grids. Um, what would happen is you 57 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: can have malware is going through the network for any 58 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: of these critical infrastructure you know elements, and sometimes these 59 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: infrastructures are provided by third parties, which is you know 60 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: what we saw for example, in the case of Target, 61 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: it was in targets main infrastructure, but it was one 62 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: of the third party vendors. So are you seeing that 63 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: a lot of companies are substantially boosting their expenditures on 64 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: uh software safety. And do you think it's enough? No, 65 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,119 Speaker 1: I mean, they are boosting. There is a blank check 66 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: for most you know, companies, for their security departments as 67 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: to what they go to buy. But frankly, you know, 68 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: in that grand sense, it's not enough, just because, as 69 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: I said, the number and the sophistication of these attacks 70 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: are growing at a much faster rate than we have 71 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: ever seen before. So mathematically it's very difficult for an 72 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: I T department to prevent these numbers from flowing into 73 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: their system. They just have to you know, vision um, 74 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: you know, basically pray that it's it's you know, they 75 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: can detect it much faster than um, you know in 76 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: the previous times. I don't know praying is necessarily going 77 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: to work. But is there a proactive position that companies 78 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 1: can adopt. I mean, as I said, they are spending 79 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: a lot of money to prevent this. So that's the 80 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: first thing that to prevent I'm talking about going out 81 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: and actually combating the cyber attacks. You know, the financial industry, 82 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: for example, is has made an effort to share information 83 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: between banks as to you know, who attacks. Then what 84 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: kind of viruses are there, but you really need this 85 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: in my view, at the at the government level, where um, 86 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: you know, the government gets kind of a database of 87 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: a lot of these viruses coming in and is able 88 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: to quickly, um you know, share that information with the 89 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: rest of the world. One of the things we wrote 90 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: on our on our piece was a large portion of software. 91 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: You know, it's still extremely old in terms of people 92 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: don't update their firmware, either in their hardware or networking equipment, 93 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: even simple stuff like that. Can you know, prevent from 94 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: both consumers as well as companies to uh, you know, 95 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: against attacks and arch You're talking about how the the 96 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: amount and the sophistication of the attacks has increased meaningfully 97 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: this year. Is there a sense of who is behind 98 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: that or whether some of the players imagine it's not 99 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: just one No, I mean, in fact, the you know 100 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: more increasing partners. I mean it used to be state sponsored. 101 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: It is still you know, a portion of that is 102 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: state sponsored, but there is a lot more money to 103 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: be made here. Ransomwarees have become extremely large over the 104 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: last two one and a half two years because they 105 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: can What they can do is they can walk up 106 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: your you know, take control of all your files. They 107 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: put an encryption on it and they will say, well, 108 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: if you need us to decrypt it, just bus ten 109 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: thousand dollars for example, or twenty dollars. The amounts are 110 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: not that large, but the number has become extremely large 111 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: for a small and medium sized business, and that's becoming 112 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: a very lucrative business for a lot of people. Now 113 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: this is in addition to this simple stuff as credit 114 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: card information, you know, healthcare information, your social Security numbers, 115 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: all of those are up for sales that you know, 116 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: anywhere from ten dollars a piece to fifty bucks out there. 117 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: Happy New Year, Thank you so much on our Grana 118 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: Senior Software and I T Services analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. 119 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: We've all been talking about the food deflation trend that 120 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: we've seen growing across the world really but particularly in 121 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: the US with worn wheat and other commodity prices falling. 122 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: But will be a bit of a different year. I 123 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: want to bring in Mike mcloan commodity Strategies for Bloomberg 124 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: Intelligence and Sal Giberti, president and founder of two Creum 125 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: Trading and Agricultural UH commodity Trading firm. So Uh, Mike, 126 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: I want to start with, you are you expecting to 127 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: see some kind of resurgence in the prices for some 128 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: of these uh hallmark commodities. I think that's a high risk, 129 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: most most notably in the grains. And if you look 130 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: at it from a you know, forty thou um feet overview, 131 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: this year is quite significant because the entire agriculture market 132 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: was actually up. Grains were actually up despite the largest 133 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: harvests and history of the world in US basically US harvest. 134 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: If it's not gonna you know, if the market won't 135 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: go down an environment like that, it's probably at risk 136 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: of doing the opposite. And the main reason is demand. 137 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: Demand has just picked up exponentially. We've had thirty year 138 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: highs in the velocity of the increase in demand and 139 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: lone of the grains, So that makes the market more 140 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: susceptible to potential risk of lower production next year. And 141 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: now I'm not predicting the weather, but generally if we 142 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: have you know, agriculture is always about the weather, but 143 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: if we have a weather event, is more likely to 144 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: probably increase more than in history because of this substantial 145 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: shift in increase in demand. Sal do you agree with 146 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: with Mike, And maybe you could then get into some details. 147 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: I want to start with soybeans and Chinese imports. Sure, 148 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 1: I do agree with Mike in that, I mean the 149 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: velocity of demand. That's an interesting statistic. Demand is rising, 150 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: and you know every year in recent memory we have 151 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: had an increase in demand, primarily because global population is increasing. 152 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: So all the grains, you're using more grains because there 153 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: are more people, more animals to feed. People eat the 154 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: animals um soybeans in particular. They're kind of like the 155 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: lost middle child. So the big three graine of coin, corn, soybeans, 156 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: and wheat. Soybeans and corn share acreage, so you either 157 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: plant soybeans or corn in the same dirt. And soybeans 158 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:08,319 Speaker 1: the import pace of China has been beyond people's wildest expectations. 159 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:13,239 Speaker 1: It's primarily feeding, uh, their swine, poultry, and aquaculture industries 160 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: because they are increasing the meat intake and protein and 161 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: take via meats in their diets. It's beyond anything anyone 162 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: could have predicted. I was gonna futures are up in 163 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: Chicago this year. Uh, that's correct. And our you know 164 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: of our funds, we we have the e t F 165 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,599 Speaker 1: out there and corn soybeans and wheat. There each a 166 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 1: different ETF and soybeans the smallest. It's like the lost child, 167 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: you know, that middle child that's ignored, but it's the 168 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: smartest one. They soybeans have really been the best performer 169 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: this year in the AGGS sector, and UM wheat has 170 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: been the worst. And wheat is very interesting as well, 171 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: because you had some winter killed we believe two nights 172 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: ago in the in you know, the prime winter wheat 173 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: growing areas of the United States have less than two 174 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: inches of snow and thirty below temperatures a couple of 175 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: days ago. That's of some concern and only farmers are 176 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: talking about it. So it's very interesting that you have 177 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: increasing demand and you you really do have uncertainty of 178 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: supply in that um. Every five to seven years, if 179 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: you look back statistically, there tends to be a major 180 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: drought in one of these big three crops, and price 181 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 1: history shows us that the prices rise very significantly. I mean, 182 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: when you have increasing demand that does not abate even 183 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: if it doesn't rain somewhere that you know you can 184 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: figure out what's going to happen in the price. So 185 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 1: if there is a weather event Mike like you are 186 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: talking about just how much could the prices of wheat 187 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 1: and corn increase? Well, use the most recent history two 188 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: thousand twelve is the last significant weather event. US is 189 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: basically the flash drought was only one month that you know, 190 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:45,599 Speaker 1: we've basically got no rain in the grain belt in 191 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: July August area, and the price of corn sowing beans 192 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: and we normably corn beings doubled at least double. They 193 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: went about eight bucks in corn currently in corn or 194 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: below four dours. So that's the risk, um, And so 195 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: here we are about about the same prices when we 196 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: started out in two thousand twelve. So that's I guess 197 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: that's the key risk. And then that was a bit 198 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 1: of an extreme event. And I think, um, it's not 199 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: so much a drought we have to worry about. It's 200 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: just as Sale mentioned, that increase usually in production usually 201 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: last in five year increments. Now we're into the fifth year. 202 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: It's just we can't expect this type of production to 203 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: continue increase as records. We expect some normalization. Normalization means 204 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: potentially market should recover. Now were already starting to price 205 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,599 Speaker 1: a little bit in that in soybeans are up in 206 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: the year and we'll see how you know, we're waiting 207 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: for the next month or two to see how production 208 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: comes in South America. That's the first indication. Sal Well, 209 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: I got a thought for a trade going into seventeen 210 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: where you'd like to be positioned right now. Um, you know, 211 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 1: we're not investment advisors, but I think people should speak 212 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: very seriously with their advisors and look at you know, 213 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: it's not necessarily a trade when things turned. Grains are 214 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: definitely in a downsideways market right now because of the supply. 215 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: But again, demand is steady, supply is uncertain every year. 216 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: There are no seeds in the ground in the Northern 217 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: Hemisphere right now, and so I think that what people 218 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: should look at is maybe looking at an allocation and 219 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: talk to their advisor about into directly these grain products, because, 220 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: as Mike said, the upside is actually explosive. And I 221 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 1: know this time of year people look to put you know, 222 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: ex percent of their portfolio and gold and do a 223 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: little rebalancing. I think people should discuss very seriously with 224 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: their advisors. Corn wheat, soybeans, these things are atted near 225 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: their cost of production. They're very low. They're in a 226 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: four year down trend, which is very very rare, and 227 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: they're they're upside is quite significant, I think on a 228 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: risk reward just from a farmer. If you're a farmer, 229 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,319 Speaker 1: you're looking at three fifty corn right now. Could it 230 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: go to three dollars? Of course it can. If we 231 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: have another bumper crop year. Can it go to eight 232 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: dollars where it was a few years ago. Anything's possible. 233 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: With with the demand the way it is, any anything's possible. 234 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: All right, Thanks very much, sal GILBERTI. He is the 235 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: president of the chief investment officer and the co founder 236 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: of two Cream Trade Eating Uh. He's the sponsor of corn, soybean, wheat, cane. 237 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: These are all single commodity agriculture et f s and 238 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: they trade on the New York Stock Exchange. And our 239 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 1: thanks of course to Mike mclogan, commodity strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence. 240 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank. It is the bank of choice for President 241 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: elect Donald Trump, or at least one of them, and 242 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: it has about three hundred million dollars and loans extended 243 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 1: to the Trump organization. With US is Carrie Geiger, Bloomberg 244 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: News reporter who co authored a really interesting story that 245 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: I thought illuminated this issue in sort of some of 246 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: the potential conflicts that could arise. SIT Bank is reportedly, 247 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: according to her reporting, UM, trying to renegotiate some of 248 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: the rewrite some of these contracts. Can you explain what 249 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: they're trying to accomplish, right, So, so Trump it's done 250 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: business with Deutsche Bank for the last couple of decades, 251 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: starting with you know, relatively small lending projects for his 252 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:12,359 Speaker 1: forty Wall Street project back in the nineties, and the relationship, 253 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 1: despite some pretty messy legal battles between the two, has 254 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: stayed and they Deutsche Bank is essentially one of the 255 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: main banks for Donald Trump's business now. To keep him mind, 256 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump does not have a lot of debt compared 257 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: to the size of his overall empire UM, so it's 258 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: not a significant amount of money if you look at 259 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: that UM. But these loans were basically done on a 260 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: recourse level, which means that there are some personal guarantees 261 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: tied to these loans, and these are not an uncommon 262 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: way to do these types of loans. UM. But as 263 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: we've seen in some court documents and other types of 264 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: reporting with some previous loans where he's had recourse if 265 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: you don't pay the full amount of the loan when 266 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: it comes due, then you would personally be have to 267 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: make a subscizable payment that can be in the tents 268 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: and millions of dollars. So you of this extremely unusual, 269 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: probably unprecedented, I think we could say situation where you 270 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: have a president that owes a bank money um, and 271 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: basically how do you manage that relationship going forward. Now, 272 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: it's not Deutsche Bank's fault. They didn't do anything wrong 273 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump got elected president. It's nott Donald Trump's 274 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: fault that he's got a personal um and business loans 275 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: with this bank, um. So the two of them just 276 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 1: kind of have to figure out how to do this. Obviously, 277 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: one of the big big topics with the Trump presidency 278 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: is conflict of interest and how his business empire will 279 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: influence decisions in the White House and vice versa. And 280 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: this is just one of one of many things that 281 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 1: they're looking at for this. Kerry, isn't there an ongoing 282 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: investigation into Deutsche Bank? So this is the other kind 283 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: of interesting, um, kind of ethical question that we're looking at. 284 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: So Deutsche Bank is under investigations for a couple of 285 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: different things. One is for mortgage backed security sales, which 286 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: every bank on Wall Street has has to go through 287 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: with a settlement process with the Department of Justice. It's 288 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: their turn. Now we're likely to see that settlement relatively soon. 289 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: It's going to be in the billions of dollars probably. Um. 290 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: They're also in investigations for the way that they did 291 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: some trading in Russia. Um. That is a criminal investigation 292 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: being done by the Department Justice. So the issue with 293 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: that is if you have a relationship between the standing 294 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: president of the United States and an investment bank that's 295 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: under investigation by the Department of Justice, what is the 296 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: issue if the person overseeing the Department of Justice is 297 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: a presidential appointee of his choice. Does it create I mean, 298 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: is it just bad optics? Does it create a situation 299 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: where Deoytscha Bank could get more favorable terms? I mean, 300 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: we don't really know what this what what the outcome is, 301 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: or what's going to happen. What are the potential conflicts 302 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: of interest? Um, Given the way that these three billion 303 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: dollars and loans currently arranged, you talked about how UH 304 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: as one sort of potential collateral measure they could Deutsche 305 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: Bank could access the President himself or the president elect himself. Uh, 306 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: and require millions of dollars of payments. Uh. Is that 307 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: the main concern or is there something else? I think 308 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 1: for Deutsche Bank, you know, and I can't speak on 309 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: their behalf. They obviously did not comment for the article. 310 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 1: But you know, in talking to people that follow this 311 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: issue quite closely, in the whole conflict of interest issue closely, 312 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: you know, it really is an issue of of awkwardness 313 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 1: for the bank. It's it's it's very low probability that 314 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: these loans will default and they'll ever have to call 315 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: on those personal guarantees. Um. But if they wanted to 316 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 1: restructure the loans to kind of remove that basically to 317 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 1: kind of ease some of those concerns, you know, typically 318 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 1: the way you would do that is you would increase 319 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: the interest rate because you're taking away a guarantee. You 320 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 1: would make the requirements on how the money has spent 321 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 1: a little bit more restrictive. So there's all sorts of 322 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: ways that you can do this, and they're not necessarily 323 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: in favor for the bank or Trump. Thanks very much. 324 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:07,439 Speaker 1: Carry Geiger, financial crimes reporter for Bloomberg News, telling us 325 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: about President elect Donald Trump and his relationship with Deutsche Bank. 326 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: When I think of Carl Icon, I think of the 327 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: history of US business R j R, Nabisco, t w A, Texico, 328 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: Gulf and Western Uni, Royal, Blockbuster, Motorola. Well, now you 329 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: think of Bill Ackman. Indeed, I wonder what Bill Ackman's 330 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: thinking today as Carl Icon has been named as President 331 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: elect Donald Trump's special advisor. Here to tell us more, 332 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: Mike Dorning, Bloomberg's White House correspondent. Mike tell us about 333 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: this selection of Carl Icon as a special advisor. Do 334 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: we know any details about what he'll be advising on. 335 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 1: We know that he'll be focused on reducing regulation, as 336 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: as President Electrump put it on. He'll be a czar 337 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 1: on quote unquote strangling regulations UM and how to remove 338 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: regulations to improve economic growd. Mike, you know this is 339 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 1: not a post that's ever been held before. It's a 340 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: newly created post that has no particular that I know of, 341 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: conflicts of interest, types of laws governing it. UM. What 342 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: will Carl icon steps be, if any. Are we gonna 343 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: get into any indication whether he'll divest himself of any 344 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: of his holdings in some of these companies that would 345 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: most benefit from deregulation in certain industries and thinking specifically 346 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,919 Speaker 1: and energy among others. We haven't gotten any indications on 347 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: what he'll do on that yet. Um Now, Democrats have 348 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 1: already criticized this, saying, you know, this man has huge 349 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 1: interests in oil refineries fornch to which you have an 350 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: interest in the lower costs conclusion regulations. But obviously people 351 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: live around the refiners have an interest in cleaner air 352 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: and stuff like that. And they've gone down the line 353 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: and say a lot of his business investments would benefit 354 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: directly if regulations that helped the public health and public 355 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: safety were reduced. So this issue of a conflict of 356 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: interest is something that will be hearing a lot about politically. 357 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: Is there any kind of disclosure that he will have 358 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: to make prior to attending any meetings with the President elect? 359 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 1: You know, I actually I am not sure what the 360 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: disclosure requirements are if you're not paid. And it's not 361 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 1: clear whether this special advisor role is going to be 362 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 1: something akin to what Paul Volker did, where he was 363 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 1: essentially didn't work for the president, but he was just 364 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: giving him advice and convening a council, or whether he 365 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: will be a paid person on the White House staff um, 366 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: but the issue of what conflicts he has is one 367 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: that will be litigated politically. And as far as confirmation goes, 368 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: since it's a new post that hasn't been had before, 369 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: does he have to be confirmed in any way? No, 370 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: you do not have to be confirmed unless the post 371 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 1: is created by law and requires a Senate confirmation. So 372 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: most of the President's advisors are not confirmed that some 373 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: exceptions are like the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. 374 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: That is a post created by law which has to 375 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: be confirmed. On the other hand, the Director of the 376 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: National Economic Council to post Garry Tone from Golden Sex 377 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: has been appointed to, which is a more powerful position. 378 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 1: Usually there's no confirmation apart on that. The only thing 379 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: is the President relying on you for advice. Would this 380 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: be the same case for Kelly and Conway, former campaign 381 00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,080 Speaker 1: manager and advisor to President Electron. She would have to 382 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: make a disclosure as an employee, but you wouldn't be 383 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: subject to confirmation. And indeed Gary Collen will have to 384 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: make a disclosure to as do other employees of the 385 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: executive branch in high positions. What's been the reaction to 386 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: carl icons appointment to this position from from Washington folks. Well, Um, 387 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 1: the main reaction so far was coming from Democrats and 388 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: Democratic Party organizations, which have said it's a terrible conflict 389 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: of interest. Um, there hasn't been a huge sense of 390 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 1: surprise in Washington because carl Icon was someone who uh 391 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: President Electron repeated when talked about in campaign as a 392 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 1: hype of person whose advice you would like to get. 393 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: The only surprised here in what capacity is being used. 394 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: So there hasn't been huge reaction yet in Washington. Also, 395 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: Congress is, um, you know, not working this week. Well, 396 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: thank you so much. I appreciate you talking about this. 397 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: Mike Dorning, Bloomberg White House correspondent h joining us from Washington. 398 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: So Trump is going to have carl Icon by his side, 399 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: as widely expected throughout the campaign as he figures out 400 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: how to slash regulations. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 401 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: pian L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 402 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 403 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: Pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at Pim Fox. 404 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 405 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 406 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio