1
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:03,040
Speaker 1: Good morning.

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

3
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:07,440
Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

4
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:08,960
Speaker 3: We have three.

5
00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,640
Speaker 4: Major policy decisions on tap, including from the Fed. We

6
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,200
Speaker 4: get a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

7
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 5: The Fed has signaled it has at least one more

8
00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,120
Speaker 5: quarter point rate increase to go, and a still tight

9
00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 5: labor market is expected to lead them to go ahead

10
00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 5: on Wednesday. Futures are pricing in a ninety six percent

11
00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,160
Speaker 5: chance of a move For investors, the real question is

12
00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,599
Speaker 5: what next. Fed officials said in June they anticipated two

13
00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,560
Speaker 5: more rate moves. What did they signal after their meeting?

14
00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 5: And let's also think the ECB is close to ending

15
00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 5: its tightening cycle one more move and then on hold.

16
00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 5: European markets are still pricing in cuts and President Christine

17
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,160
Speaker 5: Legard will try to wave those off. In Japan's still

18
00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:50,800
Speaker 5: a long way to get to where they want to be.

19
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 5: Inflation is up but projected to fall, so investors see

20
00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,000
Speaker 5: less than a ten percent chance of a rate move.

21
00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,520
Speaker 5: They may talk about ending yield curve control, but have

22
00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,400
Speaker 5: no plans to do it yet. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Gay

23
00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 5: break All right.

24
00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 2: Mike, Thanks, well, expect moves from all three central banks.

25
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,280
Speaker 2: That's the call from Ahammadalarian, chief economic advisor for Alliance,

26
00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,199
Speaker 2: and a Bloomberg opinion columnist.

27
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,119
Speaker 6: All three are going to hike by twenty five basis points,

28
00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:21,480
Speaker 6: but that's where the communality will end. I think the

29
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,240
Speaker 6: FED will come across as stubvish, the Bank of England

30
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,160
Speaker 6: will still be quite hawkish, and the ECB will be

31
00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,600
Speaker 6: in the middle in terms of the Ford policy.

32
00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 2: Guidance and when it comes to inflation, Bloomberg Opinion columnists

33
00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,280
Speaker 2: Muhammadalarian says the FED will ultimately have to settle on

34
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,760
Speaker 2: a new target rate around three percent and as compared

35
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,120
Speaker 2: to the current two percent inflation target.

36
00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 4: It's also a busy week for earnings, Karen. About a

37
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 4: third of the companies in the S and P five

38
00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 4: hundred roll report this week, and we've already heard from

39
00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 4: oil giant Chevron. Bloomberg's Doug Krisner has the details.

40
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,080
Speaker 7: The results reflect record shale oil output in the Permian

41
00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 7: Basin adjusted EPs, we're three dollars eight cents higher than

42
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 7: the Bloomberg consensus. However, net income fell to six billion dollars.

43
00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 7: It's the fourth straight quarter of lower results for Chevron.

44
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,960
Speaker 7: Net income is fallen to nearly half the level of

45
00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,480
Speaker 7: last year when oil price is surged after Russia's invasion

46
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,680
Speaker 7: of Ukraine. Now Chevron is on a quest for record

47
00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,799
Speaker 7: shareholder returns and the company is waiving the mandatory retirement

48
00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,960
Speaker 7: age for chairman and CEO Mike Worth in New York.

49
00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:26,560
Speaker 7: I'm Doug Chrisner, Bloomberg Day Break.

50
00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,840
Speaker 2: All right, Doug, thanks well, another corporate news. Elon Musk

51
00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,600
Speaker 2: is making another change at Twitter. He's hoping X marks

52
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,960
Speaker 2: the spot of profitability for the social media company, and

53
00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,120
Speaker 2: we get the details from Bloomberg's John Tucker.

54
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,840
Speaker 8: Say goodbye to Twitter's Bloomberg logo. It's being replaced with

55
00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:46,920
Speaker 8: a stylized x X dot com. Now readdirects to Twitter

56
00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,480
Speaker 8: dot com. Elon Musk hans at affinity for x X

57
00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,160
Speaker 8: dot com was the original name for PayPal. It's in

58
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,640
Speaker 8: the SpaceX company name. It's in the name for Tesla's SUV.

59
00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,000
Speaker 8: The abrupt change comes as Twitter faces a steep decline

60
00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,480
Speaker 8: and ad dollars and a new rival, it Meta Platforms

61
00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,360
Speaker 8: Threads x is envisioned is an AI powered global marketplace

62
00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:11,600
Speaker 8: including payments and banking alongside audio, video and messaging. You

63
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:13,640
Speaker 8: knoww York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak.

64
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 9: Thank you, John Well.

65
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 4: It's been a tough summer for Hollywood, between the labor

66
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,440
Speaker 4: strikes and disappointing blockbusters, but an unlikely double feature this

67
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:28,359
Speaker 4: past weekend is giving cinemas something to smile about. Barbie

68
00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 4: earned one hundred and fifty five million dollars in its

69
00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,600
Speaker 4: box office debut, and it came out the same weekend

70
00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,800
Speaker 4: as Oppenheimer, which brought an eighty and a half million.

71
00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 4: About two hundred thousand movie fans bought tickets to both

72
00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:44,200
Speaker 4: films on the same day that Barbenheimer phenomenon helped theaters

73
00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,960
Speaker 4: turn in their best weekend since Marvel's Avengers Endgame in

74
00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:48,920
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.

75
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 2: Lot of more serious know here, Nathan. Let's turn to politics.

76
00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:52,560
Speaker 10: Now.

77
00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,240
Speaker 2: Are US China relations remain largely in focused? Secretary of

78
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 2: st Anthony B. Lincoln says the rest of the world

79
00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,640
Speaker 2: is eager to see ties improve between Washington and Beijing,

80
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 2: and Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story.

81
00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,920
Speaker 11: Blanc and says he's hearing from all over the globe

82
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,320
Speaker 11: concern about how it will be managed to.

83
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 12: Make sure that we sustain these lines of communication, that

84
00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 12: we continue to talk, and that we work on, as

85
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 12: I said, both dealing with the differences and seeing if

86
00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,520
Speaker 12: we can cooperate. That's the way we're approaching it. I

87
00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:23,920
Speaker 12: think it's the responsible thing to do.

88
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 11: Blak And on CNN says both will continue to say

89
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,200
Speaker 11: things the other does not like, but the relationship will

90
00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 11: be based on how it is managed going forward. In

91
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,280
Speaker 11: San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg daybreak.

92
00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:39,320
Speaker 4: Thanks, and we've had a significant and confusing election result.

93
00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 11: In Spain.

94
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,359
Speaker 4: Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has denied his political rivals a

95
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,480
Speaker 4: majority in parliament after his Socialist party performed better than

96
00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 4: expected in yesterday's election. The Conservative People's Party won the

97
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,920
Speaker 4: most seats in Spain's parliament, but the Socialists also saw gains.

98
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,359
Speaker 4: We get more from Bloomberg's Maria TODAYO in Madrid if you.

99
00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,160
Speaker 13: Focus on the winner, and if I see that as

100
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,679
Speaker 13: a conservative party, they won the most votes, but also

101
00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,600
Speaker 13: the most speak The problem that they have is that

102
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 13: that is not enough in Spanish politics. ME and the

103
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,159
Speaker 13: winner will not take you into government if you don't

104
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:16,560
Speaker 13: have a majority. Last night is that there are huge

105
00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,839
Speaker 13: pockets of Spanish voters that will go out of vote

106
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,880
Speaker 13: to prevent what they proceed as the farm Right entering

107
00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:24,640
Speaker 13: a government.

108
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,400
Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Maria Todayo says Pedro Sanchez will remain Prime Minister

109
00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 4: for the time being, but he may have to call

110
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:37,840
Speaker 4: another election later this year. This is Bloomberg. It's time

111
00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:39,240
Speaker 4: now to take a look at some of the other

112
00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,280
Speaker 4: stories making news in New York and around the world

113
00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 4: with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

114
00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 3: Good morning, Nathan. It's not just New Jersey filing a

115
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,799
Speaker 3: lawsuit against New York City's congestion pricing plan. Staten Island

116
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,719
Speaker 3: plans to file a lawsuit as well. Borough president Veto Facila,

117
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,880
Speaker 3: like officials at the Garden State, are pointing to the

118
00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:02,239
Speaker 3: environmental studies saying will cost more for people in Staten

119
00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,360
Speaker 3: Island and hurt the borough's environment.

120
00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,560
Speaker 5: To sit here and then say to the people of

121
00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 5: Staten Island that you're going to pay more and your

122
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,680
Speaker 5: air quality is going to be worse doesn't make any sense.

123
00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,760
Speaker 3: Audio courtesy of ABC seven. Many Staten Islanders can't take

124
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,159
Speaker 3: the ferry and could end up paying even more to

125
00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,880
Speaker 3: get into Manhattan. Below sixtieth Street when the congestion pricing

126
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 3: plan kicks in. In a statement from the MTA, contrary

127
00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 3: to any claim that there was insufficient study, the environmental

128
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:36,680
Speaker 3: assessment actually covered every conceivable pretend potential traffic, air quality,

129
00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 3: and social economic effect. An unsettling discovery reported at the

130
00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,479
Speaker 3: house of the accused Gilgo Beach serial killer Rex Huerman

131
00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 3: on Long Island. According to the New York Post, police

132
00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,039
Speaker 3: told a neighbor that investigators found a sound proof room

133
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,640
Speaker 3: in the basement of the home and believe at least

134
00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,960
Speaker 3: one victim was killed there. Officials have been searching inside

135
00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 3: the home to determine if any of the victims wherever inside.

136
00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 3: Souffolk County Police Commissioner Rodney Harrison says Hewerman's appearance of

137
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,159
Speaker 3: normality was a cover that hit his true nature.

138
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 13: He lived a double life.

139
00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 10: You know.

140
00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,440
Speaker 13: He had a family and a wife and two kids.

141
00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,680
Speaker 5: He had a good job in being an architect, but

142
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,720
Speaker 5: what he did at night, he was a different human

143
00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:20,560
Speaker 5: being and a dangerous individual.

144
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,680
Speaker 3: Suffolk County Police Commissioner Rodney Harrison says that they've been

145
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:29,520
Speaker 3: using cadaver dogs, ground penetrating sonar, and an excavator to

146
00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 3: scour Hureman's backyard. The current heat wave has been setting

147
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,600
Speaker 3: records across the country. Tens of millions of Americans from

148
00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,640
Speaker 3: California to Florida are struggling to cope with scorching heat,

149
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,760
Speaker 3: like this man visiting Palm Springs. It was one hundred

150
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,200
Speaker 3: and twenty yeah, and it's klt like somebody just lit

151
00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,240
Speaker 3: a match in in front of us. Now. The heat

152
00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,560
Speaker 3: wave is forecast to expand into the Midwest and northern plains.

153
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,840
Speaker 3: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin at Yahoo was released from the

154
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 3: hospital today after an emergency heart procedure. It comes ahead

155
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 3: of a key vote in the government's judicial overhaul plan

156
00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,360
Speaker 3: that has divided the country. Global News twenty four hours

157
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,440
Speaker 3: a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

158
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,000
Speaker 3: analyst over one hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barrd. This

159
00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 3: is Bloomberg Nah.

160
00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:19,960
Speaker 4: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update.

161
00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,280
Speaker 4: Good morning, johns Stasho, Good morning Nathan. Two games Subway

162
00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 4: series starting tomorrow and the Bronx. The Yankees come off

163
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,120
Speaker 4: a sweep of the Royals. The Mets off a loss

164
00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 4: last night in Boston. Carlos Carrasco started and got only

165
00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,680
Speaker 4: seven ounce and he was gone, having given up five

166
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:34,760
Speaker 4: runs ten hits.

167
00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 14: His era is near six. The Red Sox went on

168
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,679
Speaker 14: to win six to one, as the Mets got only

169
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,640
Speaker 14: six hits, all singles at the stadium, something that had

170
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 14: not occurred in a very long time.

171
00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,559
Speaker 11: Well, once again, it'll be a three to two from

172
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 11: Lyles to Rizzo swung on head high in.

173
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,200
Speaker 10: The air, to right, all right back to the wall,

174
00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:58,600
Speaker 10: and it is gone. Waters went back as far as

175
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 10: he could go. Anthony Rizzo has not homers is May.

176
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 14: Twentyth on WFA and forty five games without a homer,

177
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 14: so sure enough, Rizzo's teammates gave him the silent treatment

178
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,400
Speaker 14: when he got to the dugout. The homer part of

179
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 14: a four for four day for Rizzou. Yanks beat the Royals,

180
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,680
Speaker 14: who are forty five games under five hundred, eight to five.

181
00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 14: Luis Savarino got just his second win. Perhaps more significant

182
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,720
Speaker 14: than the victory. Before the game, Aaron Judge, facing live

183
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:26,680
Speaker 14: pitching for the first time since the tow injury in

184
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 14: early June, Cooperstown Induction Day and into the Baseball Hall

185
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 14: of Fame goes Scott Rowland and Fred McGriff. Roland made

186
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 14: it despite getting only ten percent of the vote the

187
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 14: first time he was on the ballot. McGriff never voted

188
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,080
Speaker 14: in by the writers, but earned entry through the Veterans Committee.

189
00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,319
Speaker 14: Brian Harmon not exactly a Golf Hall of Famer. He

190
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 14: had only won two tournaments, none since twenty seventeen. The

191
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,400
Speaker 14: odds on him winning the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool

192
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,960
Speaker 14: where one hundred and twenty five to one, but a

193
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,480
Speaker 14: near wire to wire victory. Harmon ended up winning by

194
00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,600
Speaker 14: six shots. Finished thirteen under par, four straight under par

195
00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,640
Speaker 14: rounds four way tie for second. Rriy Ay tie for sixth.

196
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 14: Johns Stashnewer Bloomberg Sports.

197
00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,480
Speaker 9: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

198
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,439
Speaker 9: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam, the Bloomberg

199
00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 9: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

200
00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:21,240
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. It

201
00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 4: is the start of a very busy week for markets.

202
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,880
Speaker 4: We have a Federal Reserve decision coming in two days,

203
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,080
Speaker 4: ECB and Bank of Japan policy decisions as well, and

204
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,520
Speaker 4: a big batch of earnings on the way. Including some

205
00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 4: of the megacap tech names that have driven this year's

206
00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:39,080
Speaker 4: rally in stocks. Let's bring in Lori Calvacina for a

207
00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,040
Speaker 4: look at this market at the start of this week.

208
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 4: Laurie is head of US Equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

209
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:46,840
Speaker 4: Good morning, Laurie. Good to have with you on with

210
00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:48,680
Speaker 4: us as always, what do you think is going to

211
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,960
Speaker 4: be the bigger driver for this market this week? The

212
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:52,440
Speaker 4: central banks or the earnings?

213
00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,319
Speaker 15: Well, thanks for having me as always, Navian, And I

214
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 15: think that's actually a fabulous question to start the week

215
00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 15: off with, because I think it's going to be all

216
00:10:59,240 --> 00:10:59,840
Speaker 15: about earning.

217
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:00,600
Speaker 2: You know.

218
00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 15: One of the things our rate strategy team has talked

219
00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 15: about on the said is they think the FAED narrative

220
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 15: is likely to stay kind of boring for a while.

221
00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,200
Speaker 15: And I think equity investors have already come to that

222
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,760
Speaker 15: conclusion that we're probably going to get one more hype

223
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,280
Speaker 15: that's probably the end of it. We'll have to wait

224
00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:17,920
Speaker 15: and see, of course, that they do want to fight

225
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,959
Speaker 15: on inflation one. So I think that's you know, sort

226
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,960
Speaker 15: of settled in a lot of equity investors' minds. But

227
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 15: I think there's a real questions on this earning season,

228
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,560
Speaker 15: whether or not these big cap tech companies are going

229
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 15: to continue to dominate sort of the excitement and enthusiasm

230
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,480
Speaker 15: around earning, or if it's time for this market to

231
00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,400
Speaker 15: broaden out and see some of the other sectors generate

232
00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 15: through incremental excitement, which I think, if it happens, could

233
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:40,719
Speaker 15: really spark a shift in leadership that a lot of

234
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,199
Speaker 15: people have been hoping and looking for.

235
00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,800
Speaker 4: Grace is a couple of questions. I'll start with the

236
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 4: first one, whether the excitement we've seen around the artificial

237
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,560
Speaker 4: intelligence craze. I mean, anytime a company mentions AI, it

238
00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:55,160
Speaker 4: seems like they get a little bit of a spike

239
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 4: in their stock number. Is this the earning season where

240
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,760
Speaker 4: these companies are going to have to put some meat

241
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,080
Speaker 4: behind some of that frenzy.

242
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,839
Speaker 15: Well, I think that frenzy. I think even a lot

243
00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,120
Speaker 15: of companies who are talking about it, it's something that's

244
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,320
Speaker 15: talked about as you know, sort of a longer term

245
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,600
Speaker 15: kind of driver, at least some of the more legitimate conversations.

246
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,280
Speaker 15: I think that companies do have to be careful there though,

247
00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:19,960
Speaker 15: because one of the things I've heard over the last

248
00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:21,880
Speaker 15: couple of months, and we really did see that AI

249
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,240
Speaker 15: conversation spark in our spike in really May and June,

250
00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,240
Speaker 15: that's when it really came on the scene. There's a

251
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 15: lot of pushback from investors, you know, at least the

252
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,520
Speaker 15: ones I talk to. We're companies who aren't really that involved.

253
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:34,600
Speaker 15: We're trying to make a bigger deal of it than

254
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,280
Speaker 15: it really is. So I think companies want to be really,

255
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 15: really careful not to over hype it because, to be honest,

256
00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,320
Speaker 15: I think it just irritated a lot of portfolio managers.

257
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,840
Speaker 4: Okay, And in terms of the breadth question, are you

258
00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 4: starting to see more breadth get into this market? Do

259
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 4: you think that can last?

260
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,559
Speaker 15: You know, it's funny. We have a bunch of trades

261
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,200
Speaker 15: that we monitor in our weekly which comes out on Mondays,

262
00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,839
Speaker 15: and we look at things like banks versus NESC one hundred,

263
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 15: regional banks versus mess stack one hundred, small versus large,

264
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,599
Speaker 15: all the sector trades, and you're starting to see a

265
00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,600
Speaker 15: lot of stuff shift now, the attempts by the banks

266
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 15: and the small caps to really kind of fight back

267
00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,480
Speaker 15: and show some leadership. It's been kind of simmering under

268
00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,400
Speaker 15: the surface for a while. A lot of these trades

269
00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,559
Speaker 15: had stalled at kind of twenty twenty extremes, so I've

270
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,679
Speaker 15: kind of gotten beaten down as much as they tended

271
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 15: to back then relative to some of these other baskets.

272
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:24,559
Speaker 15: So I think these are you know, sort of lions

273
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 15: that are waiting in the brush to pounce. But so far,

274
00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,559
Speaker 15: you know, we are starting to see it. In July

275
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,200
Speaker 15: at least, we are starting to see some of that

276
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 15: rotation happen. So we'll see if earnings gives it an

277
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,840
Speaker 15: excuse to keep going. That's the big question for me

278
00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 15: these next few weeks.

279
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,200
Speaker 4: How do you think earnings will potentially justify some of

280
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,040
Speaker 4: the valuations that we're seeing in some of these stocks,

281
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,680
Speaker 4: particularly the megacaps.

282
00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,440
Speaker 15: So I think that valuation it's a tough moment in

283
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,080
Speaker 15: time to discuss valuation. Certainly, the growth part of the

284
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,360
Speaker 15: market looks overextended at this point in time, and I

285
00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,160
Speaker 15: think that is one of the things that could to

286
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 15: give give room for this leadership rotation to happen. You know,

287
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:05,600
Speaker 15: I don't think there's a lot of a lot of

288
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,480
Speaker 15: parts of the market that look too cheap, at least

289
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 15: on absolute multiple, but if you look at things like

290
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,320
Speaker 15: growth versus value, you're back to past peak. So I

291
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,760
Speaker 15: think one of the things we tend to see in

292
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 15: these big recovery trades, and I do think this feels

293
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,920
Speaker 15: like a recession recovery trade, even though we didn't have

294
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,440
Speaker 15: a recession last year, I think one got priced in.

295
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 15: But at any rate, we tend to see, you know,

296
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:25,880
Speaker 15: kind of one part of the market dominate, and then

297
00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:27,720
Speaker 15: the second half of the rally will be fueled by

298
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 15: kind of a catch up trade. I've been really intrigued

299
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 15: by what's going on in healthcare because I think you're

300
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,640
Speaker 15: starting to see some signs of a catch up trade there.

301
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,600
Speaker 15: I think financials had really been held back, not just

302
00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,280
Speaker 15: by the banking crisis, but near term recession fears, and

303
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,120
Speaker 15: we're seeing those really ease up. So I think that

304
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 15: gives us some room for some of that catch up,

305
00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 15: which basically will allow certain multiples to rerate a bit.

306
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 4: Got about thirty seconds left here, Laurie. We are seeing

307
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred just about two hundred

308
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 4: and sixty points away from breaking out of the bear

309
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 4: market low from last October. Is is this a new

310
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,800
Speaker 4: bullmarket or are you looking for more choppiness ahead?

311
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,240
Speaker 15: So I don't want those terms bullmarket, bear market rally.

312
00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 13: I know that sounds.

313
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,880
Speaker 15: Strange coming from a strategist, but you know, I think

314
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 15: people got stuck in this bear market rally. Oh, it's

315
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,520
Speaker 15: not real kind of mentality. We were never thinking that way.

316
00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,880
Speaker 15: We've always thought this was a messy post crisis normalization period,

317
00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 15: similar to two o three and twenty ten, twenty eleven

318
00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 15: coming out of the GFC in the tech bubble. If

319
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,960
Speaker 15: that analogy holds, this is about the moment in time

320
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 15: when you should come out of the rut. Basically, those

321
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 15: messy normalization periods last things out a year and a half,

322
00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:33,400
Speaker 15: and that's where we are at this point in the

323
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,360
Speaker 15: timeline to the pandemic.

324
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,320
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on

325
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 1: the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

326
00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,960
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

327
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,680
Speaker 2: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

328
00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 2: get your podcasts.

329
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,760
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

330
00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 1: am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to oho

331
00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

332
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 1: ten Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg

333
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 1: nine sixty in San Francisco.

334
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,560
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

335
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus.

336
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 1: Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, serious

337
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:21,160
Speaker 1: XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg

338
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 1: dot com. I'm Nathan Hager and.

339
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 2: I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

340
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 2: the news you need to start your day, right here

341
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:30,400
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Daybreak