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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Five five dollars. This is a regular lessons of the table.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need sensus to be.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, mist.

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Speaker 3: OPhone, the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless theirs.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the transy Fox podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: In Fantasy Labs, I am your host, Chris Rayvon. It's

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Speaker 3: time for Super Bowl sixty player projections. Momentarily, I'll be

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Speaker 3: joined by one of the most accurate fantasy rankers projectors

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Speaker 3: in the industry, the odds maker Sean Kerner. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: go over our projections for every player. We've got time.

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Speaker 3: We got one game left, so we're gonna dive in deep.

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Speaker 3: But quick reminder, all of our fantasy football content is

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Speaker 3: available right now over at fantasylabs dot com. That goes

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Speaker 3: for our DFS content as well. And Fantasy Labs has

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Speaker 3: a new feature, pick Labs, and it's live. Picklabs lets

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Speaker 3: in seconds. Everything's broken down for you from edges, win rates, value,

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Speaker 3: it's a clean, clean board showing which plays stand out

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Speaker 3: across sports books and sites like Underdog and Prize Picks

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Speaker 3: as well. And when you see something like Picklabs builds

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Speaker 2: It straight to the book of your choice.

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Speaker 3: For a limited time, you could get free access by

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Speaker 3: twenty to get twenty dollars off your first payment. Again,

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Speaker 3: twenty cash all at Fantasy labs dot com slash pricing Kerner.

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Speaker 2: What is up my man? Happy?

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Speaker 3: Uh?

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl sixty.

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Speaker 3: How you feeling heading into the Pro Bowl not being

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Speaker 3: on a Sunday next week?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mean, we finally made it. It is the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: I can't wait. A lot of the prop markets I

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Speaker 4: look for haven't been posted yet, but you know they're

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Speaker 4: gonna have punter props. They're gonna have you know, national

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Speaker 4: Anthem prop. Can't wait for your pick on that. But

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Speaker 4: it feels pretty good heading into it. Eighteen and thirteen

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Speaker 4: now for the playoffs, and two of those losses were

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Speaker 4: the top rung of a ladder, so you know, those

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Speaker 4: were like plus seven hundred and then four of my

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Speaker 4: losses have been by a half. But I did have

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Speaker 4: one luck box play, which is the Pat Bryant under

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Speaker 4: thirty three and a half receiving yards where he almost

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Speaker 4: cleared that on the first drive, and then you know,

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Speaker 4: he was knocked out of the game. Luckily he was

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Speaker 4: able to turn last week. It wasn't a long term thing.

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Speaker 4: But so four brutal beats and one Lockbucks win, hoping,

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Speaker 4: you know, for ten to fifteen props for the Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl as my goal.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, and I.

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Speaker 3: Mean talk about I mean I was just I had,

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Speaker 3: like I guess it was payback for getting the Brandon

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Speaker 3: Cooks under the week before. But I had over thirty

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Speaker 3: one and a half attempts and he was flying over

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Speaker 3: and then this blizzard comes out of nowhere within like

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Speaker 3: two downs of each other, and then Sean Pagman finally

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Speaker 3: runs the ball and then Stidham, if he just doesn't

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Speaker 3: throw that pick, he's going to throw another pass on

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Speaker 3: the next play. If he had just waited one more

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Speaker 3: play to throw right to the other team, he would

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Speaker 3: have gone over. But that should have bet it when

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Speaker 3: we talked about it on the show, because that's the thing.

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Speaker 3: It's hard to like bet as we're recording. And I

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Speaker 3: think you said it was a thirty and a half,

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Speaker 3: So that was just absolutely the difference.

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Speaker 2: But you know, well, we didn't know it was going

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Speaker 2: to be that bad.

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Speaker 4: Our very own Kevin Roff said, look, I'm a meters

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Speaker 4: and I had no clue that was going to happen.

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Speaker 4: It is unpredictable, just like you know sports betting is.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, that kind of caught people by surprise. We

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Speaker 4: didn't expect it to be that kind of a snow

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Speaker 4: out in the second half. But but yeah, that's why

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Speaker 4: the number matters, especially when it comes to something of

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Speaker 4: like pass attempts. But yeah, and I don't think he

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Speaker 4: came close to one hundred and eighty nine yards passing, right?

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Speaker 4: Did he even clear one hundred?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: No? And I mean so I felt good about it

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Speaker 3: because like I went with the attempts, like I felt

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Speaker 3: like that was the correct cap. But that did kind

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Speaker 3: of hurt to lose that one, just because it was

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Speaker 3: so close. And then he also had the overturn on

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Speaker 3: the on the grounding it turned into a backwards pass

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Speaker 3: which is now pass attempt obviously, so yeah it was.

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Speaker 2: That was just a brutal one.

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Speaker 3: But looking forward to this one, you and I both

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Speaker 3: do have bets lock and already all picks that we

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Speaker 3: make throughout these next two weeks will be tracked in

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Speaker 3: the Action Network apps, so be sure to go download

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Speaker 3: that if you have not already.

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Speaker 2: So just jump right in. Two quarterback Drake. Let's start

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Speaker 2: with Drake May, like it's simultaneously.

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Speaker 3: I don't know about you, but my feeling on Drake

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Speaker 3: May is like, on one hand, just like, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: Like this guy is scary, like he could just single

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Speaker 3: handedly win New England the Super Bowl as an underdog,

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Speaker 3: But at the same time, it's like, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: it's scary. The offense has kind of played terribly for

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Speaker 3: most of the postseason, outside of you know, like a

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Speaker 3: stretch against the Texans there. So how are you feeling

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Speaker 3: about May heading into this matchup with Seattle number one defense, Dvoa,

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Speaker 3: Broncos number four, and the Texas number two. So this

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Speaker 3: will be the third straight top four defense that Drake

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Speaker 3: May is facing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think you know with him when you

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Speaker 4: look at his regularly season stats, he was phenomenal. Led

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Speaker 4: the league with eight point nine yards per attempt, led

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Speaker 4: the league with a seventy two percent completion rate, but

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Speaker 4: he was also tied for second for average depth of

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Speaker 4: target downfield nine point yards downfield, So it's pretty incredible.

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Speaker 4: He led the league in completion percentage and he was

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Speaker 4: throwing downfield. Uh, that's just a lethal combo. So that's

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Speaker 4: good for you know, passing yard overs. And the Patriots

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Speaker 4: had the fifth highest pass rate over expected, but they

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Speaker 4: played with the lead sixty two percent of the time,

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Speaker 4: which was a league high. They were fourteen and three,

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Speaker 4: they had the easiest schedule, so this all makes sense.

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Speaker 4: So as rare four and a half, what are they

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Speaker 4: five point dogs by? Now, you know, I'm expecting to

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Speaker 4: play with the lead at a thirty percent lower rate,

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Speaker 4: So that should mean, you know, he's probably gonna drop

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Speaker 4: back at a much higher rate than usual if the

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Speaker 4: spread is correct. But like you said, he's going up

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Speaker 4: against the top ranked defense in DVA versus the pass

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Speaker 4: and the run, so it's not like there a run

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Speaker 4: funnel defense or anything. So I think you know, he's

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Speaker 4: going to drop back a ton with him That doesn't

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Speaker 4: always translate to pass attempts because he does scramble so much.

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Speaker 4: But I think, you know, something like his pass attempts

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Speaker 4: will be much higher here than they typically are. And

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Speaker 4: plus you know, his entire team is sort of due

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Speaker 4: for catch regression. I hit that booty prop last week,

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Speaker 4: you know, couldn't couldn't hit him on five of his targets.

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Speaker 4: So I just think pass attempts similar to Sidham last

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Speaker 4: week is kind of where I would go with me

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Speaker 4: because I don't really know how efficient he's going to

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Speaker 4: be against its defense, and he has been struggling, so

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Speaker 4: that could all kind of lead to more attempts. And

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Speaker 4: apparently he's dealing with some sort of shoulder injuries, so

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Speaker 4: we kind of have to monitor that. I don't know

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Speaker 4: if that means he'll throw less or scramble less, but

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Speaker 4: something to monitor for sure. And Seattle has been prone

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Speaker 4: to you know, quarterback rushing yards, so you know, I

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Speaker 4: think it's a game where he's going to be running

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Speaker 4: a ton. So haven't they found anything, I like specifically

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Speaker 4: when it comes to May's props. But what are your

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Speaker 4: thoughts on kind of like clashing versus you know, the

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Speaker 4: top defense and how he's you know played very poorly

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Speaker 4: in the playoffs so far.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so.

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Speaker 3: I'm targeting his rushing overs because and I guess it's

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Speaker 3: a little bit more risky because you know, if he

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Speaker 3: gets hit hard on a play, he could check out

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Speaker 3: for a few plays, he could get knocked out of

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Speaker 3: the game. Seattle's defense is just they hit hard. So

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Speaker 3: it is risky, but I have Drake May over forty

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Speaker 3: rushing yards in this game. And the reason being is,

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Speaker 3: especially with the Super Bowl, one of the things I

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Speaker 3: really like to kind of dialing on is, uh, you know,

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Speaker 3: like splits, and you know, because things kind of change

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Speaker 3: over the year, especially, you know, everyone's had their buy

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Speaker 3: teams kind of switch it up. They kind of do

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Speaker 3: self scout scouting at the buy you know, and then

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Speaker 3: in the post seasons, obviously you have like your most

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Speaker 3: important game, so it kind of reveals a little bit

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Speaker 3: more about who you are, you know, with recency or

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Speaker 3: splits and things like that.

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Speaker 2: You know, sometimes there's injuries.

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Speaker 3: So with Drake May, he's got some pretty interesting splits.

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Speaker 1: I'll give you a few.

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Speaker 3: First of all, let's just talk about you know, the

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Speaker 3: two young offensive lineman, Will Campbell Jared Wilson, both of

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Speaker 3: them or at least one of them missed a stretch

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Speaker 3: near the end of the year. From week thirteen to

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Speaker 3: week eighteen, Campbell missed four games and Wilson miss three.

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Speaker 2: So in the weeks.

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Speaker 3: That both of those guys were in the lineup, Drake

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Speaker 3: May actually had a higher sack crate ten point seven

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Speaker 3: versus six point eight, and he scrambled at a ten

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Speaker 3: point four percent clip versus a eight point seven percent

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Speaker 3: clip when they were out, So we saw like Campbell

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Speaker 3: just get beat off the ball crazy at one point

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Speaker 3: once in that last week in that conference championship game.

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Speaker 3: So I think Drake May, I think those splits are

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Speaker 3: a little bit telling. I mean, you do adjust a

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Speaker 3: little bit for because you know some of those games

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Speaker 3: are in the postseason, the competition level increases.

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Speaker 2: But I think Drake May's gonna be running for his

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Speaker 2: life here. Uh. And if you.

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Speaker 3: Look at going into they had a light buy, so

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Speaker 3: they were one of the last teams with a buye.

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Speaker 3: We was them in the Giants, right, So they had

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Speaker 3: the week of fourteen by they played seven games. Since

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Speaker 3: if you look at Drake May's rushing splits night and

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Speaker 3: day going into the buy and coming out it's almost

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Speaker 3: like they they said, all right, now it's go time,

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Speaker 3: like maybe they maybe he was trying not to get

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Speaker 3: injured before. But on his scrambles go up before the

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Speaker 3: buye he averaged six point six yards per scramble, and

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Speaker 3: you know, scrambles a lot of times happened on third downs.

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Speaker 2: You know, you have to get to a first down.

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Speaker 3: So it's quarterbacks can still affect that, like you're not

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Speaker 3: always trying to get the most, you're gonna slide and stuff.

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Speaker 3: So six point six yards per scramble going into the

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Speaker 3: buy since to buy ten point.

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Speaker 2: Eight yards per scramble.

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Speaker 3: But it's not just that design runs one point one

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Speaker 3: before the buy attempts two point zero nearly doubled in

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Speaker 3: attempts over these last seven games coming out of the by,

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Speaker 3: and his yards per carry on design runs went from

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Speaker 3: one point four to four point three. So he's like,

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Speaker 3: he's just like doubled and tripled up his rushing production

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Speaker 3: and efficiency and his designed attempts over these last seven

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Speaker 3: games coming out of the by. So I've adjusted for that,

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Speaker 3: and you know, adjusting for that, the market has come up.

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Speaker 3: I think I think Evan said he got Drake May

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Speaker 3: his rushing over at like thirty one and a half

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Speaker 3: when it initially opened.

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Speaker 2: Now it is up to let's see.

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Speaker 1: Took to thirty nine and a half at some books

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing a thirty five and a half.

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Speaker 3: And I'm gonna go bet that right now on the

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Speaker 3: show because if I leave it, I'm probably gonna miss it.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but that's so that's that's my kind of that's

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Speaker 3: my angle, like I if I've tried it, And we'll

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Speaker 3: talk about this more when we get to the pass

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Speaker 3: catchers for New England, but I think it's really hard

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Speaker 3: to see to find I would say a an advantage

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Speaker 3: for New England in terms of their receivers versus the

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Speaker 3: Seattle defense. Now that the Seattle defense is healthy, I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, they don't have like Stefan Diggs is great,

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Speaker 3: but they don't have like a Pook and the Coupa

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Speaker 3: that's just gonna just do ridiculous things every time he's

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Speaker 3: on the field. And Diggs is not running some of

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Speaker 3: those deeper routes like Nikua does, so yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: I think Drake May is gonna have to run quite

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Speaker 3: a bit here. So that's that's kind of my angle

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Speaker 3: as far as May is concerned. Any thoughts on that

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Speaker 3: the splits right that before we get out of here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree. I just say the market kind of

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Speaker 4: already adjusted for that. But it kind of goes with

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Speaker 4: my point where he's probably gonna have to drop back

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Speaker 4: a lot more here in a rare trailing game script,

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Speaker 4: Seattle what a top four pressure rate. I know they're

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Speaker 4: at least top five, but they also don't blitz. And

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Speaker 4: I'm looking right now and he he scrambles almost like

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Speaker 4: twice as much when teams don't blitz. So it just

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Speaker 4: seems like a lot of factors lead to him rushing.

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Speaker 4: But like you said, you know it could lead to

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Speaker 4: an in game injury. He needs to get better at sliding.

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Speaker 4: There was one play I think they thought is what

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Speaker 4: where he hurt his shoulder where he just didn't slide

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Speaker 4: very well and he got rock And like you said,

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Speaker 4: you know, Seattle hits hard.

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Speaker 1: But this is a Super Bowl. I think he's gonna

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Speaker 1: put it on the line here.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I think you know something in terms of

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Speaker 4: just rushing up side, maybe like his longest rush problem.

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Speaker 4: I haven't like dove into that yet, but there might

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Speaker 4: be an angle here where there's still quite a bit value.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like, I like the over on

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Speaker 2: his median as well. You know, it's as long as

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Speaker 2: I mean, I have it just over forty.

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Speaker 3: So as long as you're still getting in the thirties,

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Speaker 3: I'm fine with it, you know it, because I think

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Speaker 3: he does.

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Speaker 2: He also has that, like you said.

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Speaker 3: That long upside where history scrambles last week went for

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Speaker 3: fifty seven yards in that conference championship game against Denver.

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Speaker 3: It would he had I think ten carries on the day.

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Speaker 3: You would think he scrambled more than that. But when

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Speaker 3: he scrambles, he generally is gonna get yardage. And then

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Speaker 3: you saw them they they ran u again.

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Speaker 2: What would you call it?

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Speaker 3: Like an end a round or something like you know

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Speaker 3: that will keeper at the end of the game. So

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Speaker 3: like they have designed you know, play calls for him

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Speaker 3: and in these kind of important games. So I would think,

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Speaker 3: especially given us a shoulder injury, you would still want

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Speaker 3: to use his legs more than the arm, because that's

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Speaker 3: I think that's New England's best offensive advantage in this game,

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Speaker 3: as you know, as it stands. But let's let's talk,

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Speaker 3: let's go flip it over to Donald Donald. Let's see

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Speaker 3: what his passing line right now is too, twenty seven

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Speaker 3: and a half At most spots, it's been consistent. May

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Speaker 3: has come down a little more. He's at around two

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Speaker 3: twenty two, whereas both of them are opened around two

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Speaker 3: thirty ish. But Sam Donald great game in that conference

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Speaker 3: championship against the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Were confident.

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Speaker 3: Looks like Seattle was comfortable leaning into the past game.

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Speaker 3: And my question to you is do you think that

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Speaker 3: continues like and how quickly do you think Seattle would

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Speaker 3: be willing to abandon the run and just put it

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Speaker 3: on Donald, Because, like I've been saying all playoffs, you

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Speaker 3: can't run on e England. So all this Kenneth Walker

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Speaker 3: stuff that's been happening over these last few games, even

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Speaker 3: with Sharvion nay Out, I don't know if they can

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Speaker 3: get that going in this one. It will probably be

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Speaker 3: more like more of the same. So Donald has the

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Speaker 3: upside to have a huge game.

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Speaker 1: In this spot.

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Speaker 3: Would you agree with that or do you think are

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Speaker 3: you kind of, oh yeah, looking at it more conservatively.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, No, definitely, I think this is a good spot

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Speaker 4: for Donald. I think they still need to at least

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Speaker 4: try to establish run because you know he does rely

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Speaker 4: on play action so much, so they probably don't want

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Speaker 4: to get into just like an obvious, you know, drop

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Speaker 4: back every play kind of thing. But similar to the Patriots,

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Speaker 4: I have the Seahawks also expected to trail at a

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Speaker 4: fourteen percent higher rate. That makes sense because you have

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Speaker 4: two teams making the Super Bowl. Both teams have typically

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Speaker 4: been leading every game for the most part, so if

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Speaker 4: one of these teams gets behind, it'll be a rare

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Speaker 4: trailing game script for them. So we could see Donald

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Speaker 4: have to drop back a lot more, and unlike you know, May,

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Speaker 4: he's not gonna scramble nearly as much, although last week

329
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Speaker 4: he did a couple times. But you know, with him

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Speaker 4: the oblique injury injury doesn't seem like a concern. He

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Speaker 4: threw look great three hundred and forty six yards and

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Speaker 4: you know the past defense is more of a pass funnel.

333
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Speaker 4: You know, when did they rank twenty fifth in DVOA

334
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Speaker 4: against the pass. I know they have Christian Gonzalez, but

335
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Speaker 4: they just had a very easy schedule. So Darnold's gonna

336
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Speaker 4: be one of the better quarterbacks they've had to face

337
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,239
Speaker 4: this here, believe it or not. So yeah, his his

338
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 4: props started. I think it was like at two thirty five.

339
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Speaker 4: I think it's dropped seven yards by now.

340
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Speaker 1: I don't know why.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, like do we even know the weather's

342
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Speaker 4: gonna be like for the Super Bowl. You know, Santa

343
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,879
Speaker 4: Clara could be tricky, but I think it's supposed to

344
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,399
Speaker 4: be pretty nice. So you know, his over might be

345
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Speaker 4: something I would consider just based on the fact he

346
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 4: might have to drop back more and like you said,

347
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Speaker 4: it's gonna be tough to run. So that's kind of

348
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Speaker 4: where I'm leaning initially, but you know, not something I'm

349
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Speaker 4: ready to lock in quite yet.

350
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I have it.

351
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Speaker 3: I have him at more close to the original number

352
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Speaker 3: that opened. I haven't met two thirty three, so I

353
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Speaker 3: would lean over now that's down to two twenty seven.

354
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Speaker 3: And I just think that kind of similar to the

355
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Speaker 3: way the Broncos started the game against New England before

356
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Speaker 3: the Blizzard. I think New Englands run defense is so

357
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Speaker 3: good that it's a deterrent in itself. Like usually you know,

358
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Speaker 3: teams aren't really opposing teams aren't really gonna have too

359
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 3: much of an effect on you know, the run pass

360
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 3: rate outside of just the normal how much is you know,

361
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Speaker 3: how much are they gonna affect the point differentially? Like

362
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 3: weeding trailing, But like New England has, you know, for

363
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: much of the postseason just been discouraging teams from running.

364
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 3: I mean remember the Chargers, they I think they got

365
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: what they didn't they get a turnover or something, and

366
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Speaker 3: then got into the red zone and then just didn't

367
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Speaker 3: run the ball with Greg Roman of all people.

368
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Speaker 2: And then I ended up like ten ten runs on

369
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Speaker 2: the game.

370
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Speaker 3: And then the Bronc, the the the Texans just couldn't

371
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 3: get anything going. They tried to run it a little

372
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Speaker 3: more after Stroud puked himself like five times. But you know,

373
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 3: Seattle two weeks to prepare, they've been one of the

374
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,959
Speaker 3: better Uh probably the right there with the Patriots is

375
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 3: the best coach team this year. So I would be

376
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Speaker 3: surprised if they bang their heads into that wall too

377
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 3: many times.

378
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 2: I think they don't want to get into third and long.

379
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,199
Speaker 3: But I think they're gonna say, okay, we have to

380
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,400
Speaker 3: throw on early downs in order to not get into

381
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Speaker 3: third and long. And so I think you're gonna see

382
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 3: a lot of play action because you can't, let you know,

383
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 3: the the fear of running mess up your play action game.

384
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 3: So I think they're probably just gonna come out, you know,

385
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 3: super play Action heavy try and just try to test

386
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 3: the discipline of that Patriot defense so that that could

387
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,719
Speaker 3: lead to some thing about the Seahawks twos. They get

388
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,359
Speaker 3: a lot of explosives. I still think they can generate

389
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 3: some of those. I mean, nobody's covering JSN. They could

390
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: have maybe a Royal plays. I think he would add

391
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 3: a little bit more explosiveness then sober obviously, but I

392
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,440
Speaker 3: don't know it was he seemed like it was almost

393
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 3: like a healthy scratch last week though, because they took

394
00:19:58,760 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 3: him off the injury report.

395
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: I thought when they activated.

396
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 1: Him, Yeah, but I mean, I don't know what's up.

397
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Speaker 4: But we got to talk about that with Barner, But yeah,

398
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 4: I don't I don't know what the dela is there.

399
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 4: Maybe it's just uncomfortable having a rookie play in that environment,

400
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 4: But then seems like he'd be less likely to return

401
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 4: for the Super Bowl or I don't know what's going

402
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 4: on there, but they could use some pop from that

403
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 4: number two tight end.

404
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be shocked if he's active for the

405
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: Super Bowl.

406
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think either way, I'm just if you're looking

407
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: for like an angle that because it's really hard to

408
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 3: outside of I think may rushing, it's really hard to

409
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 3: kind of nail down exactly how the Patriots are gonna

410
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 3: even approach it. And then you know who's gonna have success,

411
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 3: where the ball is gonna go, who's gonna be efficient,

412
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: who's gonna make plays, who's not. Because Seattle's defense is

413
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 3: so good and they can just do so many things

414
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 3: and kind of throw so many wild cards at you,

415
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 3: Like last week they played a lot more man than expected.

416
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 2: But McVeigh is such a.

417
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 3: Genius that he countered with like one two person now

418
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 3: on second and treated second down like third and you know,

419
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 3: playing one three the whole year and now he goes

420
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 3: to one two and it's just it just kind of

421
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 3: threw him for a loop. So but you know, generally

422
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 3: it's gonna be tough to predict New England, but with Seattle,

423
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance that it's a it's

424
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 3: a past focused type move, Yeah.

425
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: Especially after Darner played really well.

426
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think, yeah, when it comes to Darnald,

427
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 4: we're typically just looking as passing prompts. But one of

428
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,199
Speaker 4: the things that I'm probably going to be focusing on

429
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 4: for the Super Bowl, is uh quarter by quarter props. Uh,

430
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 4: there's a lot of players where you know, I'm right

431
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 4: in line with the market. You know, how fun is

432
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 4: that betting on a prop that you're showing like a

433
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 4: yard of value.

434
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: But very cloud would disagree with that, Well, that that's

435
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 3: completely different that I will have bets like that.

436
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 4: But I'm saying, like I'm doing some deep dives on

437
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 4: quarter to quarter and how I expect the game to

438
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 4: play out, and I might have like overs on a

439
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 4: player in one quarter and then under in another, which

440
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 4: is gonna be one hell of a sweat in my opinion.

441
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 4: And so when it comes to Darnald, I was looking

442
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 4: he is yet to run the ball a single time

443
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 4: in the third quarter, which kind of makes sense, but

444
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 4: like the fourth quarter, obviously he's gonna have a ton

445
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 4: of rushing attempts because of kneel downs. Second quarter is

446
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 4: the quarter where he's gonna scramble the most because of

447
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 4: the two minute offense, and you could still have a

448
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 4: kneel down to end the half. So I'm not gonna

449
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,239
Speaker 4: say they're only positive runs. But the market right now

450
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 4: is kind of treating every quarter the same where you

451
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 4: know the under is minus two sixty for him to

452
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 4: even get a yard. So I've been finding some value

453
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 4: kind of in these. Not to give anything away, but

454
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna be attacking these like quarter by quarter bets,

455
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 4: just based on you know, expected game flow what they've

456
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 4: done this season. But Darnald's been kind of fascinating doing

457
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 4: a deep dive in that department.

458
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was always a chance that he is more

459
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 3: involved in the run game, just because of how dominant

460
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: the Patriots have been on the traditional you know, running

461
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: back handoffs, right, it's I mean teams, you know, teams

462
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 3: have gotten nothing, so they might do one of those

463
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: plays where I didn't. I think Stidham did one early

464
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: in the I think it was the first quarter of

465
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 3: the might have been the second drive of the first

466
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 3: quarter in the conference championship where if he faked, they

467
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 3: faked a handoff. So I think it was McLoughlin or

468
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: Harvey who went to the right and stead of just

469
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: kept it and got eight yards. So, I mean, Darnold

470
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 3: is not He's not like the most athletic, but he's

471
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 3: not like he can run a little bit. So I

472
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: could see them kind of bringing out some like a

473
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: weird play call for Darnald, like some called design rushing

474
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 3: attempt that they haven't even showed all year, because again,

475
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: very well coached Seattle team. So yeah, I think that

476
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 3: would make sense with Darnald kind of deviating a little

477
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 3: bit from yep, his his normal numbers. Let's talk about

478
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 3: the run games. Both of these teams very good against

479
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 3: the run. You mentioned Seattle's number one, New England they

480
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 3: what are they number two?

481
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 2: Let's see how I mean make double tack? Yeah, against

482
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 2: the run? What is New England?

483
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 1: I think it was middle of the pack.

484
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 4: The thing with real Patriots is just they've had such

485
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: an easy schedule, so any schedule adjusted is going to

486
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 4: make them look, you know, pretty bad.

487
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: Uh.

488
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're like seventeenth.

489
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 2: In run. That's that's frizing wow.

490
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 4: That's that's regular season right, And again it's really just

491
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 4: downgrading them based on schedule, which you could argue isn't

492
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 4: their fault that they played bad teams. But you know,

493
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 4: certainly they've been excellent in the playoffs, so I I

494
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 4: wouldn't call them middle of the pack. This is something,

495
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 4: you know, this is certainly something I think you can

496
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 4: you don't have to take DVA gospel or anything. But

497
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 4: you know, in the playoffs have been very good.

498
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 3: Oh no, now, okay, no, it makes sense, it makes sense.

499
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 3: It's just so I'm thinking about them because Milton Williams

500
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 3: is back. But remember he missed five games in the

501
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 3: regular season. So yeah, we'll start with this. I guess

502
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 3: New England in the five games Milton Williams missed, who

503
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: he's their defensive tackle that they pay a lot of

504
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 3: money to. In five games he missed one hundred and

505
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 3: forty seven yards on the ground allowed per game, five

506
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 3: yards per carry allowed, and a four point seven percent

507
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 3: rushing touchdown rate allowed. The league average usually round three,

508
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: three and a half with Milton Williams in the lineup

509
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: fifteen games, eighty one yards rushing per game. So from

510
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:53,360
Speaker 3: one forty seven to eighty one, that is a sixty

511
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 3: six yard decrease in a fifteen game sample size.

512
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 2: And then the.

513
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: Yards per carry five point zero to three point six

514
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 3: to five. That's a buck thirty five decrease and again

515
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: a pretty significant sample. We're talking about three hundred and

516
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 3: thirty one carries. You know, in those fifteen games that

517
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 3: Williams has played and then the touchdown rate goes from

518
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 3: four point seven to one point two a quarter.

519
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: It quarters like.

520
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 3: That is absolutely some of the most just dominant splits

521
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: for a player, you know, being in and out that

522
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 3: I've I've seen in recent memory for a defensive player

523
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 3: that is.

524
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 4: Like yeah, yeah, yeah, he's legit. And Robert Splane was

525
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 4: also out for three of those games. Uh, he's excellent

526
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 4: run defense too. He picked up the ankle injury. I

527
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 4: don't think we even know like if he's okay yet,

528
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 4: but I've been monitoring that, like if he's out that

529
00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 4: I think that could hurt the run defense. I don't

530
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: think there's any way he doesn't suit up for this game.

531
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 4: But again, he's a player that got hurt last game,

532
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 4: didn't return and I haven't seen an update. But when

533
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 4: it comes to their run defense, I think he's just

534
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 4: as key as Milton Williams. So like if Williams and

535
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: he are in the lineup, you know this is a

536
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 4: very good run defense.

537
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, I still think Spaine is easier

538
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 3: to report. I mean, it wasn't like at a massive

539
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 3: drop off even when he left that game.

540
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 2: Last week.

541
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 4: I mean, it was it was hard to the conditions

542
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 4: were awful, but I think Gibbons like missed a tackle

543
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 4: on Harvey. I think it was in the passing game.

544
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 4: I don't have to go watch that, but there was

545
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 4: definitely a play where it's like, oh, if Splain was

546
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 4: in there, you know he's down. But just they they

547
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: were without williams end Spalaine for three to four games there,

548
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 4: and I think that's when they're kind of like season

549
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 4: long ranking took a hit, but like I agree, like

550
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: I think overall they're probably like a top ten unit

551
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 4: when healthy. I think they're run. Oh you think they're

552
00:27:59,320 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 4: the best in the league.

553
00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 3: Well that's my my schedule address too, and my number

554
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: still has them as the best in the league with

555
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 3: him in here.

556
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 2: So that's why I was so curious about Dboa.

557
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 3: But it makes sense now because that it has to

558
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: fact and it's recent too, so.

559
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 4: It's even such an easy schedule, it's just like that

560
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 4: there's only so you know, so good they could be

561
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 4: that you know there, it's almost like canceling itself out.

562
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's like they an easy schedule, but

563
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 4: they were still very very good. But I just I

564
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 4: haven't seen anything unsplained. Hopefully, he plays, but I think

565
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 4: he's key to the their run dye as well.

566
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: Man, i've've that's been my go to handicap the entire postseason.

567
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: Well not I should the division a round and the Conferch.

568
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 2: Championship has just been new.

569
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: England's run defense is really good, and I feel like

570
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 3: the markets just doesn't haven't been adjusting. So I'm just

571
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: rolling with that. I've already been a Kenneth balzer. This

572
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 3: is your.

573
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 4: You already have an official Walker prop, so I'm just

574
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 4: you know, a witness to this right now, so I.

575
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: Have nothing to add to that. I agree with it.

576
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 4: I think I think a prop as what five six

577
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 4: yards lower than when you got it in.

578
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: Eighty four and a half, and it's down to seventy three,

579
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 3: and that's a round where I have the median I

580
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: have like a little lower than that. But I could

581
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: see Kennis Walker ending with ten yards on like fifteen carriages.

582
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,719
Speaker 3: Because remember Kenneth Walker goes backwards a lot. That's why

583
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: he wasn't just always the lead back under sharpay. So

584
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: like against the defense like this, if they get a

585
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: couple of tacklics, even on the touchdown run he had

586
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 3: in the who do they play before the Rams the Niners.

587
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 3: The touchdown run one of the touchdown runs he had

588
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: against the Niners, he broke out side I believe it was,

589
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 3: or maybe it was last week, but it was one.

590
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 3: It was a touchdown run he had in the playoffs

591
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: where he broke outside and he ends up getting into

592
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 3: the Enzo on the dive. But that could have easily

593
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,479
Speaker 3: just been a loss against a team like New England,

594
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 3: like a five yard loss. Like so, I don't know

595
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 3: that Kenneth Walker even comes close to getting like his

596
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: rushing probably he's been amazing, and we've been kind of

597
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: on that, you know, talking about that. Uh And I

598
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 3: ended up betting him for any time touchdown last week.

599
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: He paid that off.

600
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 3: But I just think this New England run defense be

601
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 3: cause and I've seen this Rabel's entire career when he

602
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 3: has a guy like Williams, like I do agree, it'splain

603
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 3: you know important too, but it's it's just a great

604
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 3: team defense. And you know, the secondary, the line, everyone

605
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 3: could everyone.

606
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 2: For the most part can can do their job.

607
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: But remember Vrabel in Tennessee, when they would have like

608
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: like their defense, you wouldn't really think their defense is great,

609
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: Like they wouldn't come to mind when you think of

610
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: great defenses, but then they would all of a sudden

611
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 3: you would look at the DVOA or whatever and be

612
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 3: like number two against the run because it was Jeffrey Simmons,

613
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: and then a Rabel scheme like that's what we're seeing

614
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: again in New England.

615
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, I would bet.

616
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 3: I would bet any type of Seattle running back over

617
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: at you know, your own risk, Like I think, I

618
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 3: think this could be a very different kind of game

619
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 3: than Seattle's had most of the year when well, I

620
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 3: guess they they're running struggled earlier a little bit in

621
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: the year, but this, I mean wood you Mark's had

622
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 3: what fourteen carries for seventeen yards in that Houston game.

623
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: Denver was inefficient. I think they ended with like twenty

624
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: four or seventy nine overall. Chargers had ten carries for

625
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: essentially nothing in in the first game, Like you're just

626
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 3: not running on New England, I think.

627
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: So yeah.

628
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 4: The only thing that, yeah, I could say about Walker

629
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 4: is he does run outside a ton and that's kind

630
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 4: of where if there was a place, you know, to

631
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: run the ball against the Pats, that's outside. But yeah,

632
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,959
Speaker 4: like when it comes to as a temp prop like

633
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 4: you'd like to under there or is it just sufficiency

634
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 4: you want to attack?

635
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: I mean I want to attack efficiency first and foremost,

636
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: because he could get I mean, what do you watched that?

637
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 3: What fourteen for seventeen? If Seattle was weeding still eating

638
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 3: the game because let's say, you know, their defense comes

639
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 3: and shows up and Drake May or Drake May makes

640
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: a ton of mistakes or you know, they get an

641
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 3: extra possession. Because Forrashichi, he doesn't return a kick for

642
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 3: a touchdown or something like that, he could get like

643
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 3: nineteen carries for fifty yards.

644
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 2: Like I wouldn't be surprised at all.

645
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's where I mean. His is still like nineteen

646
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 4: and a half and that's last week. I think is

647
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 4: Propa is like twenty and a half, which I was

648
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 4: close to. But he's a player that he needs like

649
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 4: a perfect game script and he got one, and he's

650
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: still finished with nineteen because you know they like to

651
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 4: mix in Halani. Halani still got you know, three carries,

652
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: Shaheed tends to get one or two jet sweeps. Aj

653
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 4: Barner is there like you know, short yardage, tush push back,

654
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 4: so like his you know Russia temp market is also

655
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,479
Speaker 4: kind of like, you know, limited in a sense, so

656
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 4: I haven't touched any Kenneth Walker props yet, but I agree,

657
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 4: I think the way to bat him is probably you know, under.

658
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm hoping is his long carry goes up, because

659
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 3: I think it's let's see, it's at fifteen and a half.

660
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: That's that's getting disy.

661
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: He hasn't actually fourteen and a half at some spots.

662
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 3: Now, yeah, that's that's about where it should be for

663
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 3: the you know, it's I could see him still going

664
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 3: under that.

665
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: You know, he hasn't been as.

666
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 3: Explosive over these last couple of games as the UH

667
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: as the workload has increased, But I think the yardage

668
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: is the one where you could really like he could

669
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 3: come way short because like the last two games, nineteen

670
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 3: carries in each game, and along of fifteen in the

671
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: San Francisco game and along of eleven in the RAM game.

672
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 3: So you know, teams are kind of you know, they're

673
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: they're looking for the run and he hasn't busted one.

674
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 3: That's he's unlikely to do so against New England. But yes,

675
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: you know, still got fifteen and the carries. It's themselves

676
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: make a longer like a long run more likely too,

677
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 3: So it's the long run is dicey, but the rushing

678
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 3: median I think that's one where he could fall well

679
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 3: well sure, and the no touchdown I think last year

680
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 3: one of my posts on convince Me was Saquon not

681
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 3: to score, and Evan and I were talking on the

682
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 3: early preview pod on Tampa. He was saying how that

683
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: was one of the few times where the like the

684
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 3: odds on favorite for any time touchdown hasn't scored.

685
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: I think it's like five out of the last seven.

686
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 3: So Walker, I think I think he actually makes for

687
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 3: a kind of like Barkley like fade in the touchdown

688
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 3: market as well, because, like I said, what his his

689
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 3: outside touchdown run?

690
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: I think I think it was last week. Actually, that wouldn't.

691
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 3: Happen against New England, I don't think, and then it's

692
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 3: gonna be hard to run inside of them, obviously with

693
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 3: Williams still there.

694
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: So uh yeah, this is a bigger would probably get the.

695
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 3: Line yep, anything, Yeah, if it's wait, all of them

696
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 3: have been on third or four, so if yeah, if it's.

697
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: If it gets to if they don't, if Walker doesn't, Walker.

698
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: Would probably he would get first cracked on like first

699
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: and goal from the one is what.

700
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 3: You if they run? If they run? Yeah, because I

701
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 3: was looking that up. That's that's another one. I like

702
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: to do the deep dive and just to kind of

703
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 3: get to carry projections, right, So yeah, Barner, all of

704
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 3: his attempts have been on one yard to go third

705
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 3: or fourth down, so you know he would he would

706
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 3: be that in that kind of situation essentially like short

707
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 3: yardage one yard line. But yeah, and the thing is,

708
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: and we'll get to Shaheed in the receivers. But I

709
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 3: still think there's kind of value on betting like some

710
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: of these like like Shaheed unders and stuff, because the

711
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 3: books I think are just like assuming that Okay, well

712
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 3: now he's gonna rush more because you know, Charbonne is

713
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 3: out or whatnot.

714
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 2: Where it's like last week it was even more.

715
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 3: It was like six and a half for Shaheed and

716
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 3: I was like, oh, whoa, that's that's high for a receiver.

717
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's a lot I think Walker and just

718
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 3: like if you're if you're confident in newing a run defense,

719
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 3: a lot of kind of stuff opens up because then

720
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 3: there's actually some correlation there where it's like, Okay, if

721
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 3: Walker struggles, that means probably better for Donald, better for

722
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 3: the just all the Seattle passing game. You can kind

723
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 3: of bet your MVPs that way because Walker, you know,

724
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: it's a wide open market outside of I mean even

725
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 3: May is you know, I think over to plus two hundred.

726
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 3: Sometimes we see the both quarterbacks under because they juice

727
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 3: it up. But yeah, there's it's kind of wide open

728
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 3: outside of the quarterbacks. So yeah, Walker is my number

729
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 3: He's my number one fade. But I do want to

730
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 3: talk to you about the Patriots. Well for well, first

731
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 3: of all, Holdani, do you think he continues to get

732
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 3: like as much third down, well, like as much passing down,

733
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 3: because ye Walker split passing downs last week like fifty.

734
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 4: Yeah he yeah, he had one more route than Walker three. Yeah,

735
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 4: he had a brutal drop though, So yeah, he's he's

736
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 4: tricky to project. Saw three carriers for four yards. His

737
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 4: rushing prop went up three yards. It was like seven

738
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 4: and a half. It went up to ten and a half.

739
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 1: Are you you're perked out because you want the under?

740
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 3: I want all like I just I just see like

741
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 3: them running into walls.

742
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: Well, okay, his longest rush prop what do you think

743
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: it is?

744
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:23,760
Speaker 2: Uh, it should be four and a half, right, it's.

745
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: Five and a half even money.

746
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 4: Now, the thing the concern there, I remember had I

747
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:34,280
Speaker 4: had this with de Mercado earlier in the season, Yeah,

748
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 4: it's third and eighteen, I'd be very worried about. Like,

749
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 4: hold on, he's just ripping off a ten yard run

750
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 4: where the Pats are totally fine with that. You know,

751
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 4: now it's fourth and eight there you are, congrats, you know,

752
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 4: you move the punt up ten yards. That's my concern

753
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 4: with Holani being in on third down so much and

754
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 4: fading the ten and a half you know, rushing yards.

755
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 4: So I've been kind of cautious pouncing on that. But

756
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 4: it is enticing and we'll see if it like moves

757
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 4: up a little bit more. But like I could imagine

758
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 4: if his longest rush prop gets up to like six

759
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 4: and a half, I'd be pretty interested in, you know,

760
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 4: taking me under there.

761
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would, I would consider the median,

762
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 3: but I would, I would need to, I would kind

763
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,439
Speaker 3: of I'm kind of waiting for it to max out

764
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: because you know it could. I mean, a guy like that,

765
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 3: it could just tick up a little bit. He did

766
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 3: get probably got more snaps than people realized, but most

767
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: of them came in the past game. You know, he

768
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 3: got twenty three snaps, and twenty were in the past game,

769
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 3: and then he got the three carries, so and then

770
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: you know, Walker was in on twenty three run plays.

771
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 3: He had twenty carries, I think one called back, and

772
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 3: then Darnold had you know, three runs as well with

773
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 3: Walker in the game. So they didn't seem interested in

774
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 3: handing Holani the football, but I thought it was I mean,

775
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 3: he really hadn't played much on passing downs all year,

776
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: so I thought it was interesting that they just kind of,

777
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: you know, put him in that high volume pass game

778
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 3: like sharbon Ale immediately.

779
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 2: And they could change that this week too.

780
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 4: And Acres cam Akers played one snap. He was in

781
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 4: to pass block on that Shaheed bomb, but yeah, Akers

782
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 4: played a snap, So I mean there's a chance that

783
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 4: like Acres could get a carry. Still kind of like

784
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 4: volatile how they're handling it. But I'm gonna probably pass

785
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 4: on Halani rushing props, but like his receiving props might

786
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 4: be interesting. They seem about right now. But the more

787
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 4: I dig in that I might find an angle in

788
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 4: that direction. But he was definitely used kind of as

789
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:37,439
Speaker 4: like the passing back.

790
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's just I think with Halani it just

791
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 3: comes down to risk if you've already locked in some

792
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 3: Walker unders, because now you're in a situation where Walker

793
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 3: runs really hard. New England's run defense hits hard like

794
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 3: he could. He's another guy, I think higher risk than

795
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 3: most to come down to, you know, get knocked out

796
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,919
Speaker 3: of a game and he and now he's like max

797
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 3: out his carries and snacks. So yeah, that that's kind

798
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 3: of my concern because it's like with with Walker, you know,

799
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 3: going under like seventy something, he gets knocked out, he

800
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 3: could come way shorter that, whereas like Holani, you know,

801
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 3: he could do nothing. But if any little thing breaks

802
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 3: wrong and he has to get let's say, you know,

803
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 3: seven carries instead of yeah the three were projecting two

804
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: or three were projecting, then you know, you don't you

805
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: don't have that same kind of wiggle room.

806
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that's a great part.

807
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 4: Because Arvione, I know people in fantasy hate him that

808
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 4: have you know, Keneth Walker, but he would take seven

809
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 4: to eight hard.

810
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 1: Hits that Walker didn't have to take.

811
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 4: Right because Charbon is getting those like tough copyard games,

812
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 4: and now he has the full you know, workload to himself,

813
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 4: he is going to be more prone to injury. That's

814
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 4: kind of why they do. And both backs are really good.

815
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 4: Sharbay is a very good back, but having both backs

816
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 4: kind of keeps them both fresh and more efficient. So

817
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: just a bigger workload, you could see Walker's efficiency take

818
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 4: a hit as well.

819
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly, So that in that kind of situation,

820
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: I think you kind of you kind of have to

821
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 3: favor the if you think if you're just trying to

822
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 3: fade like an efficiency like the the starter is generally

823
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 3: going to give you more value there in like dead betting.

824
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 3: But of the two, like you know, like you could

825
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 3: still show value on a whole line under that doesn't mean,

826
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 3: you know, you necessarily want to put the same amount

827
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 3: on it, if anything. But let's let's talk about it.

828
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 3: Let's get to the real fun here. Because I don't

829
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly who the Patriots' second running back

830
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 3: is because I did not see the Patriots take ramondre

831
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 3: Stevenson out of the game last week. I'm joking, obviously,

832
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 3: but rimondre Stevenson played sixty snaps and Trebon Henderson played

833
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 3: four snaps. That has continued a trend of Henderson seeing

834
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 3: a decreased role as the postseason has worn on. Now

835
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 3: I know they're like, he did get banged up at

836
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 3: one point, and he had like a pretty sizable leading

837
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 3: carries in that divisional round game, and then and then

838
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 3: Stevenson got like, I think at one point it was

839
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 3: ten to three Henderson, and then Stevenson got like the

840
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 3: last sixteen backfield carries or something, and then he got

841
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: another what like twenty five, and Henderson got one in

842
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: this game. Yeah, so Stevenson's working with quite the streak

843
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 3: of handoffs.

844
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: You know, over Henderson, what do you.

845
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 3: Project Like just how are you kind of doling out

846
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: the usage with you know, you could go so many ways,

847
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 3: like depending on how much you wait recency, do you

848
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: use just the postseason to use just last game? Do

849
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 3: you go back more over the you know, since to

850
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 3: buy like since you know in the games they were healthy,

851
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 3: Like what how what are you even using as the

852
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,919
Speaker 3: the relevant sample to project the snaps for these two?

853
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 1: Yeah?

854
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, when it comes to this, it's very volatile.

855
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: There's no like right or wrong way.

856
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 4: But I'm definitely you know, bumping Stevenson way up based

857
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 4: on recent usage, and he has been playing well down

858
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 4: the stretch. I think it started what week eighteen against

859
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,919
Speaker 4: the Dolphins, he went off, and then you know, he's

860
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 4: seen his rushing share increase ever since then. I think

861
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 4: last week though, I think that had a lot to

862
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 4: do with the weather, and Rabel just trusted the veteran

863
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 4: to just keep pounding it. They were just playing keep

864
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 4: away at that point, so might as well just keep

865
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 4: Stevenson in there over the rookie. But you know, I

866
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 4: have him coming a little bit back down to earth here,

867
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 4: and Stevenson's rushing yard under was the first bet I

868
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 4: locked in. Okay, at fifty six and a half, he's

869
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 4: down to fifty one and a half, so you know,

870
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 4: got five yards of value. But the reason for that

871
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 4: was kind of what I said earlier with Drake May.

872
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 4: This could be a rare trailing game script for the Patriots.

873
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 4: I haven't projected to trail at a thirty percent higher rate.

874
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 4: That doesn't mean that they're like guaranteed the trail, but

875
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 4: as a four point underdog, I just take the percent

876
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 4: of game four point underdogs trail at and I apply

877
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 4: that to their season long rate, and it's a thirty

878
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 4: percent higher rate here. So my whole point is there's

879
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 4: probably gonna be fewer rush attempts to go around, at

880
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 4: least for the running backs. You know, may might scramble

881
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 4: when he drops back to pass, but those aren't technically

882
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 4: you know, design rush attempts. So I have the overall

883
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 4: pie shrinking quite a bit. Plus, you know, Seattle's is

884
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 4: very good versus the run as well. They ranked first

885
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 4: and DVOA against the run, and I did a deep

886
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 4: dive on Mare's just you know his skill set this year,

887
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 4: and he's been excellent running against stack boxes. He runs

888
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 4: inside at a very high rate, so he's you know,

889
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 4: he's always been kind of a good power back. So

890
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 4: he he led the league with six point nine yards

891
00:44:54,840 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 4: per rush against stack boxes, and Seattle actually used stack

892
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 4: box of the second lowest rate. You know, they have

893
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 4: that secondary where you know, everybody's excellent run support. You know,

894
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 4: they have great linebackers, great defensive lines, so they tend

895
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 4: to use a seven men in the box at one

896
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 4: of the highest rates in the league. And that's when

897
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 4: actually Remandre struggles. He had a three point one yards

898
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 4: per run against seven man boxes, so Seattle will kind

899
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 4: of let him get pass line of scrimmage. We're not

900
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 4: very good at, like you know, initiating contact. But once

901
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 4: they do get first contact, it's really hard to get

902
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 4: yards after the run. So he might pick up quite

903
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 4: a few you know, three to four yard runs grinded out,

904
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 4: but this is a very tough defense to get explosive

905
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 4: runs against. So it's one of those things where he

906
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 4: could be struggling to run the ball where they could

907
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 4: either kind of use them in the passing game more,

908
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 4: which I think they will do, or just you know,

909
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 4: get Trevia on a little bit more work, just try

910
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 4: to get you know, explosive run if Remandre struggling a bit,

911
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,240
Speaker 4: so I could see Trevion having a role in this game.

912
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: But either way, like.

913
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 4: When it comes to Stevenson's passing usage, you know, led

914
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 4: the backfield of the sixty six percent routes are on

915
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 4: rate last week, so it's all like Trevian's oh, you know,

916
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 4: he's not getting many carries, but he's at least factoring

917
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 4: in the pass game. He's not really doing anything because

918
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 4: Madre's dominating the passing down work. So I think Remandre

919
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 4: could have a big game, you know as a pass catcher.

920
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 4: But you know, Ramandre, I think it's clear that he

921
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 4: is the lead back heading of this game.

922
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: But I have him right.

923
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 4: Around fourteen, you know, thirteen and a half carries and

924
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 4: Travion around five and a half. Is that kind of

925
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 4: the split you have? And how are you kind of

926
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 4: handling this kind of extreme shift in usage.

927
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, it kind of goes back to really the buye.

928
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 3: Coming out of the buy, Madre just kind of retook

929
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 3: that lead role and you know, he just outplayed Henderson

930
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 3: and I know maybe you know, I'm sure there'll be

931
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 3: some deep dives on it, and you know, maybe there's

932
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 3: some something more to it that we just don't aren't

933
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 3: privy to yet, but yeah, I have it. I'm just

934
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: kind of using the postseason, uh snap counts, because you

935
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 3: know that's when everything matters, you know. Week seventeen, I know,

936
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 3: they had like a weird game where a lot of

937
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 3: receivers were out and they ended up playing like a

938
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 3: lot of pass naps with both of those guys on

939
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 3: the field. And then obviously Week eighteen, you know they're

940
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 3: playing for the proceeding, but it's still Week eighteen and

941
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 3: Denver ends up getting that one seed. So the postseason

942
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 3: is where you have to say, Okay, like now this

943
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 3: is relevant, and yeah, it's been Stevenson about uh it's

944
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 3: a six about sixty eight percent of the backfield carries

945
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 3: to Henderson's thirty two and then Stevenson getting seventy five

946
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 3: percent of the routes and Henderson seventy five twenty five

947
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 3: split terms of the past plays.

948
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 2: So that's that's really where I have it.

949
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 3: So I have Stevenson at twelve and a half carries

950
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 3: and yeah, Henderson at you know, five and a half,

951
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 3: I little over five and a half, you know, giving

952
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 3: him a little bit of because just I also look

953
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 3: at like the snaps, you know, because like let's say

954
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 3: May runs on a play where Henderson din and Stevenson,

955
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 3: so like he got a little more credit there. But yeah,

956
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 3: it's it's well in favor of Stevenson. I have him

957
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 3: still playing about you know, over two thirds of the snaps,

958
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 3: like a seventy thirty kind of split at this point.

959
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 3: I don't think he can really project less. And I

960
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 3: agree with you on the passing game. I think that

961
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 3: Stevenson could end up being the lead receiver in this game.

962
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 1: Like if if New.

963
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: England struggles, you know, because like the May has shown,

964
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 3: he'll target receivers like his receivers even in tough matchups.

965
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 3: But if those passes aren't completed, it's probably it's probably

966
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 3: gonna come down to one of I think Stevenson or

967
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 3: Henry will have a big will have a big game

968
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 3: at least volume wised, but the fact that Henry is

969
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 3: like kind of like a number two option in the offense.

970
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 3: But you would say behind Diggs, I don't think McDonald's like,

971
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 3: you know, he's not like most defensive coaches that might say, Okay,

972
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 3: you know, they've been kind of targeting Booty more and

973
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 3: we gotta, you know, stop him. And it's like he's

974
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 3: not gonna he's gonna be like, Okay, this New England

975
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 3: offense was struggling and they couldn't get Henry the ball

976
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: the last two weeks in the playoffs, so let's continue

977
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 3: to like treat him and make sure we don't give

978
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 3: him too much. And that that means it's gonna be

979
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 3: like a potential for like an eight catch Stevenson game

980
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 3: where that's really the player those you know, the Seattle

981
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 3: linebackers in the postseason especially, that's where other teams have

982
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 3: been trying to go because there's really no there's no

983
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: weak link in this Seattle secondary or really the lineback

984
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 3: or anywhere in the passing game. So you might as

985
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 3: well just try to get, you know, somebody on a linebacker,

986
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 3: and the most likely player for that would be Stevenson.

987
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 3: And like with the way Will Campbell was kind of

988
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 3: struggling on the you know, at tackle, you might have

989
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 3: to use Henry to chip or use him to pass

990
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: block instead of Stevenson at times, because like Will Campbell

991
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 3: was giving up a lot of quick pressures. I know,

992
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 3: you look at like the quick pressure rate, but he's

993
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 3: in the postseason. I don't have the numbers in front

994
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 3: of me, but just the eye test that he's been

995
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: giving up some quick pressures. So yeah, I think I

996
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,959
Speaker 3: think Stevenson would be that kind of outlet, checkdown guy,

997
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 3: and you know, he'd probably matched up on either Ernest

998
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 3: Jones or Drake Thomas, but I mean that's probably that's

999
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 3: it's like as bad as good as you can do

1000
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 3: against the Seattle defense at this point. You know, I

1001
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 3: just hope Rimandre can break break some tackles, you know,

1002
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 3: make some nifty moves and be efficient in the past game.

1003
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, I could.

1004
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 3: I think he's probably the most likely guy I could

1005
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 3: see like a team game.

1006
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 4: A team specific triple crown for the Pats would be

1007
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 4: Drake Nay obviously leading the team in passing yards, but

1008
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:11,359
Speaker 4: also in rushing yards, and then Remandre leading the team

1009
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 4: in receiving yards. I wonder if we'll see a market

1010
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 4: like that, like just to obviously, you know, jsn would

1011
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 4: probably still outpace Remandre, but I could definitely see that

1012
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 4: happening because again, he's like Ty Johnson but full time

1013
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 4: where he tends to see his targets downfield. He has

1014
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 4: an a out of four point two yards, tends to

1015
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 4: see like deep shots downfield, which is rare for a

1016
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 4: running back. So you know, he can maintain you know,

1017
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 4: very high yards per catch and that's probably one of

1018
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 4: their best ways to kind of move the ball is

1019
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 4: you know, dumping it off to him or throwing to him.

1020
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 4: So could definitely see him, you know, leading the Pats

1021
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 4: and receiving yards.

1022
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and like the whole thing with Henderson too is.

1023
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 3: Kind of It's kind of interesting because I don't know

1024
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 3: if I expected its heading into the year, but Stevenson

1025
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 3: is much more dominant in terms of usage over Henderson.

1026
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 2: In the past game than in the run game.

1027
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 3: Like, if Henderson's gonna get increased snaps, it usually comes

1028
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: because they're given him more carries.

1029
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: In the past game.

1030
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 3: It's been like Stevenson getting you know, sixty percent most

1031
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: of the year, like there was only a couple of outliers.

1032
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 4: Brabel has even said like he wants him in there

1033
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 4: to pass protect, right, that's got to be the reason. So, yeah,

1034
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 4: he's already out there a ton because he's you know,

1035
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 4: pass protecting, you know, being a pass catching back. You

1036
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 4: would think they'd give him some breathers with Travon, But

1037
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 4: I guess last week was such an outlier. You know,

1038
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 4: it hasn't been that extreme, but yeah, last week was

1039
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 4: such an outlier. It's it's really hard to project. But

1040
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:53,879
Speaker 4: either way, I do think Trayvion does close the gap

1041
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 4: a bit more in the run game, but not not

1042
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:57,359
Speaker 4: in the past game.

1043
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's the thing is, it's kind of

1044
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 3: getting hot, like every game is like one, you know,

1045
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 3: it's just one data point. Obviously, you can say the

1046
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 3: postseason games are like more important or whatever not, but

1047
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: It's like we were saying the same thing coming into

1048
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:13,839
Speaker 3: last week. We were like, all right, well, Stevenson got

1049
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 3: like the last you know, like like thirteen to the

1050
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 3: last fifteen backfield carriage or something like that. He played

1051
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 3: a lot more snaps and he was more productive, So

1052
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 3: is that, like, how are we projecting Anderson? And then

1053
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: it went from like Stevenson doing more last week than

1054
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:34,439
Speaker 3: we thought to Henderson getting four snaps in the most

1055
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 3: important game of the year. So I, yeah, I think

1056
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:40,760
Speaker 3: it's it's definitely worrisome. But the way I would attack

1057
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: that number one, I think you could probably parlay like

1058
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 3: like kind of like you were alluding to Stevenson rushing

1059
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 3: unders and passing overs, receiving overs, like that's kind of

1060
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 3: correlated in itself, just gamescare wise. And then Henderson, I

1061
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 3: don't really want any parts of his medians, I don't think,

1062
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 3: because there's just so much uncertainty. But I do think

1063
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 3: to your point, there's a decent chance that he is

1064
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 3: back up to at least you know, like a twenty

1065
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 3: five to thirty five percent usage rate snat ray you know,

1066
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 3: share the carries whatnot, and with that, you know, one

1067
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 3: of the most explosive players that will touch the ball

1068
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 3: in his game, So he could easily, like his rushing

1069
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 3: prop is in the twenty three and a half, he

1070
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 3: could easily go for like seventy or plus even if

1071
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 3: he doesn't get that many carries, if he just breaks one. Now,

1072
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 3: I don't think that's likely against the Seattle defense. I

1073
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 3: think it's more likely against Seattle than it would be

1074
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 3: against New England. But uh, yeah, I think, oh, he's, Oh,

1075
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 3: he's down to he's down to. Yeah, he's down to

1076
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 3: eighteen and a half. I haven't met like twenty in

1077
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 3: the low twenties, but yeah, he's His prop is eighteen

1078
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 3: and a half, seventeen and a half at some books.

1079
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 2: So I don't really want any parts of that, even

1080
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:56,879
Speaker 2: though I.

1081
00:54:56,880 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 3: Do project him a little bit over that, just because

1082
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 3: it's like a wide range of outcome, it's not a

1083
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 3: super thin confidence demand for projection there. All right, let's

1084
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 3: jump a wide receiver and we'll do tight end and

1085
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 3: get out of here. Obviously, we want to spend a

1086
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 3: long time, you know, talking about the running backs, because

1087
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 3: I think that's those are some of the key key

1088
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:23,240
Speaker 3: handicaps in this game. Receiver, we can start with Seattle.

1089
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 3: What's your approach kerner to the Seahawks. For me, it's

1090
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 3: I think it's just like JSN is like plus five

1091
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 3: point fifty to win MVP versus you know, Donald's like

1092
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 3: plus one thirty. I like those odds for JSN a

1093
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 3: lot because Donald's the guy mediums like two thirty five

1094
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 3: to thirty passing. Anyway, Jayson goes over one hundred a

1095
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 3: lot of games, so that that's really all I got there.

1096
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:48,760
Speaker 3: I mean I could see Bobo maybe getting more snaps,

1097
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 3: getting a long touchdown. But any thoughts on the Seattle receivers.

1098
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I haven't even thought about MVP, but I kind

1099
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 4: of like that angle just because JSN is so much

1100
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 4: of a or you know, passing offense, he could easily

1101
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,279
Speaker 4: win it where you know, he and Darnall both have

1102
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 4: a good game, but he catches every touchdown, so they

1103
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 4: just give it to JSN. Be even better if JSN

1104
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 4: like rushes in a touchdown, kind of like t Higgins

1105
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 4: where we've got that, you know, Joe Mixon passed to

1106
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 4: t Higgins to kind of separate him from the quarterback.

1107
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 1: But I like that angle.

1108
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:22,399
Speaker 4: I he could see, you know, some christianan Zolz here,

1109
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 4: but JSN is so good I'm not like downgrading him

1110
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 4: at all here because of that. So I'm expecting a

1111
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,719
Speaker 4: typical JSN game here. Same goes with Cooper Cup, you know,

1112
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 4: kind of a boring projection. He's been pretty solid down

1113
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 4: the stretch, but you know, as a number two target,

1114
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 4: there's only so much work he can see with you know,

1115
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 4: JSN commanding so many targets, So expecting a typical game

1116
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 4: from Cup here. He could see an increase in targets

1117
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 4: if you know, Donald shies away from JSN because Gonzalz

1118
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,359
Speaker 4: is on him. But I'm expecting pretty much sas quo

1119
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 4: for Cup. But the most interesting projection the guy that

1120
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 4: I'm not betting on one where the other of this

1121
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:06,720
Speaker 4: game is Rashid Shaheed because he's the ultimate boombus player

1122
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 4: right now, and he is He's operating basically on his

1123
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 4: floor when it comes to hiss like receiving usage right now.

1124
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 4: And he killed my prop earlier last week. That was

1125
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 4: I was very thankful of that, just catching that fifty

1126
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 4: one yard bomb right away. But again, he's just been

1127
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 4: so little involved in the passing game where you know

1128
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 4: he can make an impact play as a return man

1129
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:36,120
Speaker 4: or you know, as a runner on a design carry

1130
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 4: that he's very tricky to project. He's still the kind

1131
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 4: of guy that similar what you're kind of saying about Henderson.

1132
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 4: I would only be interested in like alt overs at

1133
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 4: this point when it comes to Shiheed, I know you

1134
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 4: like his under for you know, his rushing yards. I

1135
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 4: think that makes sense. But you know, taking like twenty

1136
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 4: plus rushing yards at six to one odds or something

1137
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 4: like that would be interesting as well. But he's a

1138
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 4: player that's almost impossible project right now. He just has

1139
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 4: such a wide range outcomes. But he could have a

1140
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 4: huge impact on this game, and he he could be

1141
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 4: I don't even know what his Super Bowl MVP odds are,

1142
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 4: but here they're egregious.

1143
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 3: Oh he's twenty eight to one. He's like the fifth highest.

1144
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 3: Uh okay, it was like, yeah, he's high than he's

1145
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 3: like twice as short as Diggs, Like Gigs was like

1146
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 3: sixty to one. Shaheed as the number like the number

1147
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 3: three receiver was Yeah, Like.

1148
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 4: I wonder when his odds of like just betting on

1149
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 4: a return touchdown would be. That'd probably be better than

1150
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 4: just taking MVP.

1151
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 2: You have to go two to get it.

1152
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 3: So if you go essentially two touchdowns would be like

1153
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 3: around the similar odds. That's Evan and I were kind

1154
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 3: of looking into that.

1155
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, just one.

1156
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 3: Everything for him is just kind of overprized as it's been,

1157
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 3: you know.

1158
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 4: As it should be. Yeah, yeah, he damn it. Okay,

1159
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 4: if it was like, you know, fifty to one, I

1160
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 4: would consider that. But yeah, if he returns a touchdown,

1161
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:00,439
Speaker 4: he'd probably also need to like catch a touch down,

1162
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 4: and at twenty eight to one, I can't get behind that.

1163
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 4: But again, he's one of those players where if he

1164
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 4: has a huge impact on the game, I won't be shocked.

1165
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 4: If he finishes with zero catches, I won't be shocked either.

1166
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 4: So not a player. There's so many prop markets. I'm

1167
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 4: probably gonna have to pass on him for this one.

1168
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 4: We'll see though, We'll see if I find anything.

1169
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:27,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think with with the which heat it it's

1170
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 3: just a question of, like, I still think he is

1171
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 3: a good bet to kind of coming under his volume

1172
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 3: because the I think the books have been using like

1173
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 3: his full season numbers where once I think you mentioned

1174
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 3: it last week, but once he came to Seattle, his

1175
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,080
Speaker 3: tigre per route almost cut in half. I mean, he

1176
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 3: was up near twenty percent. You know, in New Orleans,

1177
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 3: as you know, they're true number two receiver and here

1178
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 3: he's very you know, it's barely clear and ten percent

1179
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 3: in most of these games. So I actually did end

1180
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 3: up betting a juice up like under two and a

1181
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 3: half last week on his receptions because.

1182
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, that was that was the market to that

1183
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 4: was the market to take him in.

1184
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,439
Speaker 1: It was the receptions I always hate.

1185
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 4: I don't think I've ever faded his receiving yards, but

1186
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 4: I hate fading players like that.

1187
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, his receptions was like minus one ninety to

1188
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: the under.

1189
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 4: They eventually moved it down to one and a half

1190
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 4: and it was like plus one forty the under. If

1191
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 4: they had done that before, that's probably the route I

1192
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 4: would have gone. But you know, still a learning process

1193
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 4: when it comes to that. But I also said that

1194
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 4: I thought Elijah Arroyo's return could eat into his usage,

1195
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,920
Speaker 4: and Arroyo was a scratch. And I also said, you know,

1196
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 4: Bobo's kind of been making some noise. I made a

1197
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 4: side bet on Bobo to score. Told the disc I

1198
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 4: told the Discord about it. But like again, some of

1199
01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 4: these things happened, and it didn't matter because he it

1200
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 4: was wide open on that play right for fifty one yards.

1201
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:05,960
Speaker 4: So it all, you know, goes as shit at that point.

1202
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 4: But all of the underlying usage points to him just

1203
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 4: having a very very low floor in this offense, and

1204
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 4: for good reason, because you know, JSN is commanding so

1205
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:19,520
Speaker 4: many targets that you know he's gonna see just a

1206
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:23,400
Speaker 4: couple of targets typically downfield. Those are very low, you know,

1207
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 4: catch rate type of targets. So again, very wide range

1208
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 4: bout comes kind of guy. But we all know that. Yeah,

1209
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 4: and I'm.

1210
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 3: I'm betting I'm gonna bet Hiss rushing under it. So

1211
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 3: just for some perspectives, I've seen that between four and

1212
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 3: a half and five and a half, I think it

1213
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 3: could continue to go up if people, you know, get

1214
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 3: down on like Walker. But eleven games with the Seahawks

1215
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 3: now for Shaheed, and only in two of those games

1216
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 3: has he had multiple carries. So every other game he's

1217
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:06,920
Speaker 3: had either one or zero carries. So then you look

1218
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 3: at the yardage because remember receivers are more volatile, like

1219
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 3: last week he got to carry and it went for

1220
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 3: zero yards. On the season, he's always been over five

1221
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 3: rushing yards in four of the twenty games that he's

1222
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 3: played with the Seahawks.

1223
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 2: It's four of eleven, so it's a little better, but

1224
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 2: that's still a very low rate compared you know to

1225
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 2: let the markets projecting. And then again, this new England

1226
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 2: defense is still good.

1227
01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 3: Like it's not like they just are gonna miraculously be

1228
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:46,680
Speaker 3: terrible against like a wide receiver. You know, I hand

1229
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 3: out that she head gets so often that they're going

1230
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,440
Speaker 3: to be prepared for essentially, so.

1231
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 2: Like I, yeah, I'm.

1232
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 3: Still gonna fait, I'm gonna be fading him, even though

1233
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 3: kind of that seems to kind of run counter to

1234
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 3: what I said about like Holani, But it's different because

1235
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 3: with this I'm just really banking on like one play,

1236
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 3: like if I can just get his one handoff to

1237
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 3: not go for you know whatever those yard and he

1238
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 3: might not even get a hand. That's the thing because

1239
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 3: again Seattle well coached. They they switch it up when

1240
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 3: you least expect. It came out in a totally different,

1241
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 3: i think, defensive game plan than a lot of people

1242
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 3: thought last week.

1243
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:20,480
Speaker 2: You could easily see them.

1244
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: Maybe JSN has gotten a lotless carries since she joined

1245
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 3: the team.

1246
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 2: Maybe he's the guy that gets that wide receiver.

1247
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:31,440
Speaker 3: Designed uh run this week, So yeah, I'm gonna be

1248
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 3: fading his rushing and uh his his reception proper is

1249
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 3: at one and a half now right, it's not it's

1250
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 3: not two and a half again, or is.

1251
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 2: It because he got targets last week?

1252
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 1: Could see?

1253
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:44,760
Speaker 4: No, No, it's one and a half plus like one

1254
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 4: to the under.

1255
01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:46,919
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1256
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 3: Okay, so if he for some reason, and I don't

1257
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 3: think it would, but he did get five targets, so

1258
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 3: that goes up to two and a half pretty much

1259
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 3: any juice.

1260
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's actually I think there's a two and a

1261
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 2: half minus two hundred out there. I'm sure show value.

1262
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 4: On I'm sure to offer all yeah markets for everybody

1263
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 4: on reception.

1264
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:06,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, So for the for the Patriots, my question

1265
01:04:06,720 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 3: to you is, well, number one, just you know who

1266
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 3: you think they're top, the guy that's you know, the

1267
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 3: best kind of guy to look at in terms of

1268
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 3: the you know overs, And then just like how are

1269
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 3: you're projecting the routes run rates for everyone because gigs

1270
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:25,640
Speaker 3: dropped down It was it was a low pass game,

1271
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,960
Speaker 3: but gigsdropped down to like seventy percent last week. Mac

1272
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 3: Hollins was playing like, you know, kind of like seventy

1273
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 3: seven to eighty, but he was only he was under

1274
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 3: fifty last week in his return. So is that kind

1275
01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 3: of how you're projecting it this week or like, do

1276
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 3: you have Mac increasing or yeah.

1277
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 4: I think when it comes to the Patriots receivers, I

1278
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 4: think from a projection standpoint, it's you know, mac hollins

1279
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 4: return last week, so you know, how does that impact things?

1280
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,360
Speaker 4: And he had a forty eight percent routes run Nate.

1281
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,960
Speaker 4: I think they were easing him back with that rate.

1282
01:04:58,040 --> 01:04:59,720
Speaker 4: I think he is going to be I would say

1283
01:04:59,720 --> 01:05:05,360
Speaker 4: between fifty percent and seventy percent, and I have it

1284
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 4: right at fifty five percent. I think he's going to

1285
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 4: be on the lower end of that because they have

1286
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 4: been playing Digs more in the playoffs.

1287
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: I think that's part of it. And I think the.

1288
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 4: Seventy two percent rate is just they kind of had

1289
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:20,000
Speaker 4: the game in hand, they're running it more.

1290
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 1: He tends to get a lot of rest in the

1291
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, so I think that was part of it.

1292
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 4: But I think Diggs will be right back up in

1293
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 4: that eighty percent range this week or next week, I

1294
01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 4: should say. But the guys that really, and Booty doesn't

1295
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:39,520
Speaker 4: really see an impact with Hollins in the lineup. He

1296
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 4: still had the eighty three percent routes run rates, still

1297
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 4: expecting him to be out there pretty much every dropback

1298
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:48,840
Speaker 4: the mat. kN ding his target shair is kind of

1299
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 4: how he impacts duty. But it's Kyle Williams and Da

1300
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 4: Mario Douglas. Those are the guys that took the biggest

1301
01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:58,280
Speaker 4: hit with Mac being out there because you know, we

1302
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 4: saw both their routes run rate plumb it. And the

1303
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 4: tricky thing is both those guys could make, you know,

1304
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 4: a huge impact play even in limited time, sort of

1305
01:06:07,840 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 4: like Shaheed, where you know, I would probably be more

1306
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 4: interested in fading. You know, Douglas's volume, so his like

1307
01:06:15,720 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 4: reception prop is one and a half, but it's all

1308
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 4: it's juice down to minus two hundred right now. And

1309
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 4: then Kyle Williams. Are they even offering a Kyle Williams

1310
01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 4: market yet not yet?

1311
01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:28,680
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1312
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 4: So, and oh and Fton Chisholm was inactive. So Mac

1313
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:37,520
Speaker 4: Collins return definitely, you know, shifted those three receivers the most.

1314
01:06:38,440 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 4: But Mac Collins specifically he cut two balls on two targets,

1315
01:06:45,080 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 4: so he's a player that you know, I think he's

1316
01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:49,360
Speaker 4: gonna do a lot of damage if and when he

1317
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:52,640
Speaker 4: gets targets and he catches it. But you know, his

1318
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 4: reception market has been something that I've attacked in the past.

1319
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:59,360
Speaker 4: But he could be tricky because you know, he is

1320
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 4: such a you know, high IQ receiver where may a

1321
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:04,280
Speaker 4: big game like this may.

1322
01:07:04,200 --> 01:07:05,320
Speaker 1: Might target him more.

1323
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:10,680
Speaker 4: But have you like, how are you projecting Mac in

1324
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 4: this game in terms of routesting rate and how that

1325
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 4: that impacts everybody?

1326
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, for his season.

1327
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:19,080
Speaker 3: For the season, his mediaan has been fifty round fifty

1328
01:07:19,080 --> 01:07:21,000
Speaker 3: eight percent, So yeah, I have a fifty seven point

1329
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:23,919
Speaker 3: five percent, So I'm right there with you at fifty five.

1330
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 3: And I came to the same conclusion if you look

1331
01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:29,959
Speaker 3: at the games where uh, just Mac is in there

1332
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 3: a lot of times he's just being like the number

1333
01:07:33,720 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 3: one or two receiver and Giggs is getting that that

1334
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 3: rate that Mac Collins would usually get, and so like

1335
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 3: they only could like there there only could be so

1336
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 3: many receivers on the field at any given time. Last week,

1337
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 3: it made sense that he dipped down even further because

1338
01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:49,880
Speaker 3: and digs because it was just a low pass rate game.

1339
01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:52,640
Speaker 3: So there's not gonna be as much separation between like

1340
01:07:52,680 --> 01:07:55,240
Speaker 3: your your starters and like your big guys like uh,

1341
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 3: you know Westover and those guys. But the one thing

1342
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:02,200
Speaker 3: I think is interesting is Douglas I think would probably

1343
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 3: see like last week it was Douglas and Williams like

1344
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 3: pretty much even like thirty percent for Douglas twenty eight

1345
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 3: for Williams. I think in a normal game script, Douglas

1346
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 3: would see about twice as many because like if the

1347
01:08:13,120 --> 01:08:15,520
Speaker 3: Patriots are trailing more, they would go more one to one,

1348
01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 3: and that's when Douglas usually plays. Williams is essentially at

1349
01:08:19,080 --> 01:08:22,160
Speaker 3: this point like the gigs breather guy, uh, and they

1350
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:23,880
Speaker 3: might draw up like one or two maybe like a

1351
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 3: deep shot form, but in general it's like when Diggs needs,

1352
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 3: like to check out of the game, that's generally when

1353
01:08:28,880 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 3: Williams checks into the game.

1354
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:32,880
Speaker 2: But Douglas, he would just have a role in that

1355
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:33,799
Speaker 2: one to one.

1356
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:35,680
Speaker 3: Package, which if they're playing, if they got to like

1357
01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 3: run a bunch of hurry up or whatever, he could

1358
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 3: have a much different game.

1359
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:40,080
Speaker 2: So I agree with you, I wouldn't want to.

1360
01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 1: Bet his.

1361
01:08:42,120 --> 01:08:45,400
Speaker 3: Like medians, maybe I kind of look at like some

1362
01:08:45,560 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 3: extremes one way or the other with Douglas because they've

1363
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 3: been leading the entire playoffs, so it hasn't really even

1364
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,679
Speaker 3: been like a dog like a Douglas type.

1365
01:08:53,479 --> 01:08:54,960
Speaker 2: Of date of script.

1366
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,720
Speaker 3: But that's but he's been like explosive when he's been

1367
01:08:57,760 --> 01:08:59,720
Speaker 3: on the field, So yeah, I could see him making

1368
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,559
Speaker 3: a big play. Williams would have less likely could happen.

1369
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:05,839
Speaker 3: But if Diggs goes up that, I think that negatively

1370
01:09:05,880 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 3: correlates with Williams. So I would just look at Daves

1371
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:10,600
Speaker 3: because teams have been targeting Spoon a lot, and I

1372
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:12,479
Speaker 3: feel like Spoon is going to see a lot of

1373
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 3: digs in this game, like they're going to have those

1374
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:15,840
Speaker 3: two guys match up a ton.

1375
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:20,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, when it comes to the Patriots usage, if

1376
01:09:20,240 --> 01:09:22,479
Speaker 4: you look at Week sixteen against the Ravens, I think,

1377
01:09:22,760 --> 01:09:25,559
Speaker 4: to me, that's like the only game where everybody was healthy.

1378
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 4: Diggs had an eighty percent routes from race. It was

1379
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:30,200
Speaker 4: a game they were trailing at one point, right, So

1380
01:09:31,240 --> 01:09:33,400
Speaker 4: like if you're looking at Booty left that game early,

1381
01:09:33,960 --> 01:09:36,000
Speaker 4: I'm not sure how early he left, but if you

1382
01:09:36,040 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 4: look at that game, I think their usage is going

1383
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:40,559
Speaker 4: to be very very close to that.

1384
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:41,320
Speaker 1: Ravens game.

1385
01:09:42,640 --> 01:09:46,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's not gonna be. It's probably also pretty

1386
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 3: similar to like if you just look at the postseason

1387
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:54,120
Speaker 3: at large, but just bump like put Howinds in that

1388
01:09:54,120 --> 01:09:57,240
Speaker 3: wide receiver three row like like in terms of the routes,

1389
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 3: like it's you know, Howends will be in the fifties,

1390
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:01,639
Speaker 3: Gigs will in the eighties, but will be in the eighties,

1391
01:10:01,760 --> 01:10:05,080
Speaker 3: Dougles will be in the thirties, and Williams just depending

1392
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 3: on the exact game script, will be anywhere from like

1393
01:10:07,520 --> 01:10:10,320
Speaker 3: five to twenty five or something like that. And that's

1394
01:10:10,600 --> 01:10:13,360
Speaker 3: that's how it is. Austin who we could go to

1395
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:17,000
Speaker 3: tight Ends? Uh but yeah, I think like Digs, I

1396
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 3: could still see Digs going over receptions. Wouldn't want to

1397
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 3: beat his yards because I but I do think he'll

1398
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 3: get He'll get a lot of targets and then uh yeah,

1399
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 3: Douglas for like big plays. Uh that that's how it

1400
01:10:28,280 --> 01:10:36,280
Speaker 3: kind of attacked the Patriots. Uh but tight Ends first,

1401
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:40,120
Speaker 3: I guess the major question for the Seahawks is does

1402
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:42,000
Speaker 3: a Royo play, Like do you.

1403
01:10:42,080 --> 01:10:44,160
Speaker 2: Like, what would you do you like? Are you projecting

1404
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 2: a Royal for stats? Right now?

1405
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:46,880
Speaker 1: Uh?

1406
01:10:46,960 --> 01:10:51,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I am, But the hell do I know, And

1407
01:10:51,520 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 4: Robbie Oots was out last game. Looks like he and

1408
01:10:55,160 --> 01:10:57,519
Speaker 4: Brady Russeller are both questionable, So we don't even know

1409
01:10:57,600 --> 01:10:58,760
Speaker 4: what fullback they have.

1410
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:01,799
Speaker 1: That could dictate.

1411
01:11:01,920 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 4: You know, if both those fullbacks are out, maybe they

1412
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 4: want like Sober or Collar up in that role, and

1413
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:10,439
Speaker 4: then then they probably would want Arroyo active, right.

1414
01:11:11,840 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 1: I just don't. Yeah, Like, I don't know why they

1415
01:11:14,680 --> 01:11:15,639
Speaker 1: held him out last week.

1416
01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:18,519
Speaker 4: Maybe he just wasn't fully healthy, but I know he

1417
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:21,080
Speaker 4: had like a full week of practice, but he is

1418
01:11:21,120 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 4: a rookie, so maybe they just didn't want him out there.

1419
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:27,360
Speaker 4: I just I haven't seen any coach speak anything about that.

1420
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:30,919
Speaker 4: But as of now, I'm projecting him to return.

1421
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:35,040
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm not not betting on anything.

1422
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:38,639
Speaker 4: If anything, I'm pretty high on Arroyo as a talent.

1423
01:11:38,800 --> 01:11:41,479
Speaker 4: I probably would just take his re senior yards over

1424
01:11:42,160 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 4: and if he doesn't play, then you know, he's a

1425
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:47,400
Speaker 4: healthy scratch and I get my money back. But hopefully

1426
01:11:47,479 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 4: this is one of those things where hopefully we know

1427
01:11:49,360 --> 01:11:52,040
Speaker 4: by next week what the deal is and we know

1428
01:11:52,080 --> 01:11:54,000
Speaker 4: if he's going to be active or not. But I

1429
01:11:54,080 --> 01:11:55,439
Speaker 4: just haven't seen anything yet.

1430
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the I think Arroyo.

1431
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:03,559
Speaker 3: I think you the touchdown anytime touchdown and any overs

1432
01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:08,400
Speaker 3: if you like Arroyo or just just based on like

1433
01:12:08,439 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 3: if you're just trying to find bets, like I would

1434
01:12:11,120 --> 01:12:15,600
Speaker 3: bet Arroyo overs because when he's every game that he

1435
01:12:15,760 --> 01:12:20,000
Speaker 3: has been active with Sober or just period, really he's

1436
01:12:20,040 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 3: been the number two tight ends. It's just that if

1437
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:27,920
Speaker 3: only like there now we have also a game where okay,

1438
01:12:28,160 --> 01:12:31,280
Speaker 3: like Sober, like you know, Arroyo was it looked like

1439
01:12:31,320 --> 01:12:33,760
Speaker 3: he was healthy and he just didn't play. And but

1440
01:12:33,840 --> 01:12:37,759
Speaker 3: every it's been either or it's never been like Sober

1441
01:12:37,760 --> 01:12:41,800
Speaker 3: and Arroyo are both active, and Sober is playing ahead

1442
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:47,200
Speaker 3: of Arroyo. So what's probably going to happen is if

1443
01:12:47,960 --> 01:12:53,360
Speaker 3: Arroyo is if he does, he's either gonna not play

1444
01:12:53,400 --> 01:12:55,000
Speaker 3: or be the number two tight end. Like there's not

1445
01:12:55,040 --> 01:12:59,120
Speaker 3: really a scenario where I think you're in a situation where, uh,

1446
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:01,200
Speaker 3: you know, he just he's like in the caller up role,

1447
01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:02,880
Speaker 3: because I think that's the whole point. I think they

1448
01:13:03,000 --> 01:13:06,120
Speaker 3: they call her up is like another blocker and all

1449
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:09,200
Speaker 3: he does is block. And then Sobered I guess they

1450
01:13:09,200 --> 01:13:11,479
Speaker 3: feel was maybe a little more balanced. Like I know

1451
01:13:11,560 --> 01:13:13,800
Speaker 3: you know he was known more of his receiving tindan

1452
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:16,360
Speaker 3: early in his career, but uh, looks looks a little

1453
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 3: looks like he put on some weight and got a

1454
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 3: little stronger, so they they probably like him as a

1455
01:13:19,840 --> 01:13:20,360
Speaker 3: blocker more.

1456
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:20,559
Speaker 1: So.

1457
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:22,360
Speaker 2: It could just be something as simple as that.

1458
01:13:23,160 --> 01:13:25,400
Speaker 3: But I would I would think he's active next week

1459
01:13:25,479 --> 01:13:27,640
Speaker 3: just because I think the Seahawks are gonna have to

1460
01:13:27,680 --> 01:13:28,439
Speaker 3: go past every.

1461
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:31,719
Speaker 2: So I like a Royal overs uh Barner.

1462
01:13:32,439 --> 01:13:36,280
Speaker 3: Nothing, nothing really there, you know, because he's actually he

1463
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:39,439
Speaker 3: could get slightly affected by whether it's saw or a

1464
01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:43,320
Speaker 3: Royal because the Royal tends to actually play a little

1465
01:13:43,320 --> 01:13:46,240
Speaker 3: bit more. And then the fullbacks kind of factoring as well,

1466
01:13:46,280 --> 01:13:51,000
Speaker 3: because when there's no fullbacks and no Arroyo like Barner's,

1467
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 3: like snap count is maxed out essentially, but he can

1468
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,160
Speaker 3: get like a few more breathers even on pass plays

1469
01:13:56,160 --> 01:13:57,800
Speaker 3: when so that's just kind of a wait and see

1470
01:13:57,800 --> 01:14:01,400
Speaker 3: for me. But New England, are you are you in line?

1471
01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:05,439
Speaker 3: I know my guy Stucky loves Henry this week. Seattle

1472
01:14:05,479 --> 01:14:07,479
Speaker 3: has been a tight end funnel most of the year.

1473
01:14:08,560 --> 01:14:10,920
Speaker 3: But the only thing that worries me is that McDonald

1474
01:14:11,040 --> 01:14:15,120
Speaker 3: is so smart that they haven't really faced like a

1475
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:17,360
Speaker 3: top tight end in the playoffs yet, so I could

1476
01:14:17,400 --> 01:14:20,000
Speaker 3: see him, like, you know, saying, Okay, we're gonna treat

1477
01:14:20,040 --> 01:14:21,680
Speaker 3: him what we're gonna put like I'm gonna worry on

1478
01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:24,560
Speaker 3: and like they did Kyle Hamilton on Wash Chelsea a

1479
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,920
Speaker 3: couple of years ago in the Conference championships, Like, there's

1480
01:14:26,960 --> 01:14:28,920
Speaker 3: just there's a lot of things that could kind of

1481
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:32,640
Speaker 3: he's a higher risk guy for me. But what are

1482
01:14:32,680 --> 01:14:34,200
Speaker 3: you thinking with Hunter Henry?

1483
01:14:34,800 --> 01:14:39,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the Stucky play, you know, because Henry's

1484
01:14:39,640 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 4: only had what three catches for seventeen yards over the

1485
01:14:42,400 --> 01:14:45,719
Speaker 4: last two games combined, and this is a sneaky matchup

1486
01:14:45,720 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 4: for him because has been fairly vulnerable to tight ends. However,

1487
01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:54,679
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm gonna be betting on his full

1488
01:14:54,720 --> 01:14:58,320
Speaker 4: game prop. I think I'll have some sneaky angles on him,

1489
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:02,679
Speaker 4: So stay tuned for one of our many prop shows

1490
01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:06,519
Speaker 4: coming up. But I do like Stucky's angle. I think

1491
01:15:06,520 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna have like a different path ultimately leading

1492
01:15:09,640 --> 01:15:12,040
Speaker 4: to the same conclusion if that.

1493
01:15:12,200 --> 01:15:14,519
Speaker 1: If that makes sense, Yeah.

1494
01:15:14,360 --> 01:15:16,400
Speaker 2: It's I don't know where I am yet on that.

1495
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:20,600
Speaker 3: Like I could see a scenario where it's like everyone's

1496
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:22,400
Speaker 3: on him and like the market just goes too far

1497
01:15:22,439 --> 01:15:24,840
Speaker 3: too because he is kind of I think him and

1498
01:15:24,880 --> 01:15:27,320
Speaker 3: Stevenson kind of stand out to be just based on

1499
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:30,479
Speaker 3: what I've seen from Seattle, but I think Henry's just

1500
01:15:30,520 --> 01:15:34,840
Speaker 3: more at risk of like McDonald specifically scheming and saying, Okay,

1501
01:15:35,000 --> 01:15:36,920
Speaker 3: he only had like a couple of catches the last

1502
01:15:36,960 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 3: couple of games, but that New England pass offense hasn't

1503
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:42,559
Speaker 3: been great, so let's like keep that up and you

1504
01:15:42,640 --> 01:15:45,479
Speaker 3: have all the yeah, like you're always playing safeties. But

1505
01:15:45,720 --> 01:15:49,040
Speaker 3: one thing to note though, because I think Austin Hooper

1506
01:15:49,080 --> 01:15:53,400
Speaker 3: is kind of sneaky here, like if the Patriots want to, uh,

1507
01:15:53,640 --> 01:15:55,160
Speaker 3: you know, kind of maybe try to shorten the game

1508
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:58,280
Speaker 3: or something, go continue to go heavy. But his his

1509
01:15:58,840 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 3: snap rates have been going way down down since the

1510
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:03,559
Speaker 3: since the buye, so he's kind of been the guy

1511
01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:07,400
Speaker 3: that has been you know, at the expense of like Douglas,

1512
01:16:07,479 --> 01:16:10,960
Speaker 3: Kyle Williams and Jack Westover at fullback. Uh, they've been

1513
01:16:11,080 --> 01:16:14,800
Speaker 3: using less of that second tight end, so you know,

1514
01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:18,600
Speaker 3: Hooper I could see him, you know, potentially be a

1515
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:21,160
Speaker 3: bigger part of the game plan like he was earlier

1516
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:22,880
Speaker 3: in the year. Because like before the buy it was

1517
01:16:22,880 --> 01:16:25,200
Speaker 3: like forty percent routes running then since it's been like

1518
01:16:25,200 --> 01:16:27,320
Speaker 3: twenty seven and a half percent.

1519
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:29,679
Speaker 2: So, uh, you know, volatile guy.

1520
01:16:29,680 --> 01:16:33,600
Speaker 3: But I think he's an interesting like long shot touchdown

1521
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:34,639
Speaker 3: and uh.

1522
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:38,799
Speaker 2: Westover is uh as well, just because.

1523
01:16:38,560 --> 01:16:41,520
Speaker 4: He's been playing all He's gonna say west Over, Yeah,

1524
01:16:42,600 --> 01:16:46,960
Speaker 4: had a twenty four percent routes run rate last week,

1525
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:49,840
Speaker 4: you know, not really out there to catch passes, but

1526
01:16:49,880 --> 01:16:53,320
Speaker 4: he's forty to one in the touchdown market. One of

1527
01:16:53,320 --> 01:16:55,759
Speaker 4: those things where he's probably offering value but he probably

1528
01:16:55,800 --> 01:16:58,720
Speaker 4: won't score situations. But it is a super Bowl, so

1529
01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:02,880
Speaker 4: if you're gonna have some crazy shit, usually coaches like

1530
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:04,840
Speaker 4: to save that for the Super Bowl. So yeah, I

1531
01:17:04,840 --> 01:17:09,439
Speaker 4: think Westover could be sneaky, especially if the Seahawks, you know,

1532
01:17:09,680 --> 01:17:13,519
Speaker 4: vulnerability is sort of against tight ends. He would make

1533
01:17:13,600 --> 01:17:16,360
Speaker 4: sense as well. I'm looking at forty one. Now there

1534
01:17:16,439 --> 01:17:18,000
Speaker 4: might be some books out there that have them like

1535
01:17:18,200 --> 01:17:18,720
Speaker 4: better than that.

1536
01:17:19,640 --> 01:17:22,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I actually have this true rods at

1537
01:17:22,520 --> 01:17:25,599
Speaker 3: forty seven to one. So and that's with like bumping

1538
01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:25,920
Speaker 3: them up.

1539
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:32,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, everybody's fair odds are usually slightly below the

1540
01:17:32,400 --> 01:17:34,479
Speaker 4: worse than the market anyway, that's just kind of how

1541
01:17:34,479 --> 01:17:38,680
Speaker 4: the touchdown market is. But you kind of alluded to

1542
01:17:38,680 --> 01:17:41,240
Speaker 4: this with Walker. This is a game where we should

1543
01:17:41,240 --> 01:17:44,200
Speaker 4: see a ton of not to score a touchdown.

1544
01:17:44,760 --> 01:17:46,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, you're gonna be hitting those.

1545
01:17:47,240 --> 01:17:50,639
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean starting with Walker. But yeah, I think,

1546
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:52,719
Speaker 3: but I do, I might. I might end up bumping

1547
01:17:52,760 --> 01:17:54,639
Speaker 3: west Over up. It's tough to project him too, because

1548
01:17:54,880 --> 01:17:58,320
Speaker 3: he's actually the fullback really like he's been splitting routes

1549
01:17:58,360 --> 01:18:01,360
Speaker 3: between like wide. I think he runs more routes wide

1550
01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:05,760
Speaker 3: and uh from backfield and in line as like a

1551
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:06,280
Speaker 3: tight end.

1552
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:08,840
Speaker 2: So it's like technically he's more like a full back,

1553
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 2: but then he.

1554
01:18:11,720 --> 01:18:12,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

1555
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:16,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, but just because I think that it's hard to

1556
01:18:16,520 --> 01:18:19,639
Speaker 3: find guys on the Patriots that are like great bets,

1557
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:23,760
Speaker 3: like to have a matchup advantage. You could see a

1558
01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:25,960
Speaker 3: guy like him get in the end zone. So yeah,

1559
01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:28,000
Speaker 3: I think I might end up being out of that one.

1560
01:18:28,040 --> 01:18:32,920
Speaker 3: It's just you know, just a little sprinkle. But yeah,

1561
01:18:33,000 --> 01:18:34,719
Speaker 3: this was We.

1562
01:18:34,600 --> 01:18:37,800
Speaker 2: Didn't even get the kicker, but this was. This is good.

1563
01:18:37,880 --> 01:18:41,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go make some more bets, edit some more projections,

1564
01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 3: and hopefully everybody enjoyed it.

1565
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:43,880
Speaker 2: Again. We'll be back.

1566
01:18:43,880 --> 01:18:47,880
Speaker 3: I think we have what like four prop episodes combined

1567
01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 3: coming up over these next couple of weeks here on

1568
01:18:51,560 --> 01:18:55,599
Speaker 3: Action Network, so be sure to check out those. And

1569
01:18:57,000 --> 01:19:01,679
Speaker 3: we were don't forget Fancy Labs Codex twenty for twenty

1570
01:19:01,720 --> 01:19:05,519
Speaker 3: dollars off. First things first, though, we'll be back with

1571
01:19:05,720 --> 01:19:10,599
Speaker 3: Jill to do our favorite touchdown scores next Thursday, and

1572
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:15,120
Speaker 3: then again we'll have props all week, episodes all week.

1573
01:19:15,160 --> 01:19:15,960
Speaker 2: We just were pumped.

1574
01:19:15,960 --> 01:19:18,759
Speaker 3: We're bumping up the we're pumping out the prop content

1575
01:19:18,760 --> 01:19:20,720
Speaker 3: and we know everybody loves props as well. And then

1576
01:19:20,840 --> 01:19:23,280
Speaker 3: you know, stuck you out. We'll have the tampod with

1577
01:19:23,479 --> 01:19:26,280
Speaker 3: our game breakdown as well. Uh, and Sean, I know

1578
01:19:26,320 --> 01:19:27,040
Speaker 3: you'll have a write up.

1579
01:19:27,800 --> 01:19:28,240
Speaker 1: Uh.

1580
01:19:28,760 --> 01:19:31,360
Speaker 3: Shawna's on X at the end scribe maker at Chris Raybaud,

1581
01:19:31,360 --> 01:19:33,880
Speaker 3: we're at those same handles on free.

1582
01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:37,040
Speaker 2: Award winning Action Network app.

1583
01:19:37,920 --> 01:19:46,920
Speaker 3: Go O the Pro Bowl, I'll get us money. Action

1584
01:19:47,080 --> 01:19:51,519
Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1585
01:19:51,560 --> 01:19:54,560
Speaker 3: you care about has a gambling problem. Help is available

1586
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Speaker 3: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler