WEBVTT - Week 15 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 69) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:13.880 Hit. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:16.599 Everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Bidding Pros 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.120 NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:21.880 is Matt Parole, host of the Daily Juice podcast. You 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:24.320 can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. You 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:26.560 can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty Matt, 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:27.160 what's up? 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:31.000 Well, it's week fifteen, Yeah, and we're trying to close 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:35.080 hard here and two eighty percent over the last two weeks. 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:35.680 Can't beat it. 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.760 So we're hot. Now can we end the year hot? 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:42.120 Is the question that's right, And we've got i'll call 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.440 it an outside chance to finish in the money. We're 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:47.800 probably gonna need another four and one week, maybe even 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:49.720 a five and oher week, but we're in there now. 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:52.040 There are two weeks left in the draft Kings Pro 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.800 Pick Them Championship, and we have to take a bye 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.320 in one of the two weeks and we'll talk about it. 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.200 But man, I hate this late I hate this slate. 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:04.120 I do not have any game that I'm like, I'm 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.960 really going to pick. So maybe you feel strongly about it, 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.080 will see, But in my mind, man, if you can 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:11.560 convince me that this is not the week to take 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.160 a bye, then I will be impressed. But let's get 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:15.600 into it. We're gonna go through every game on the 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.360 slate as we always do, and again Matt said, we 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.160 went four and one. Last week. We hit on the 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.120 Rams laying five and a half to the Patriots. Again, 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.640 that was a Thursday night one. Matt tweeted out, I 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:26.880 hope you were following him again at Sports Talk Matt. 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:30.479 Kudos to Matt who was all over that game last week. 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:32.680 It was like pott it on the table and to 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:37.000 the extent he broke a peraltism, which is never ever 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:39.319 bet on a favorite laying five and a half, but 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:41.280 we did and it worked out. We also hit on 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:42.960 the Bucks slaying six and a half to the Vikings, 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:44.720 the Colts slaying three and a half to the Raiders, 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.360 and the Ravens laying one and a half to the 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:50.240 Browns in a pretty entertaining game. The only loss we 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.880 had was the Steelers getting two and a half from 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:54.920 the Bills, which Matt, I don't know you a minute 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:58.000 left in the first half, I was feeling really good 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.760 about that. Bet. Yeah, I thought that that was gonna 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:02.080 be one that we're gonna walk away with. And then 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.960 the second half man, the Bills just totally adjusted and 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:07.920 the Steelers weren't able to do anything about it. So 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.239 four and one whatever. Again, We've got one bye week 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:13.280 left to go, so we might do it this week, 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:14.840 we may do next week. We'll have to see. But 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:17.480 I don't know, Matt. I want to see what you've got, 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.440 So start us off. Let me know, give me a 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:22.519 pick that you're feeling kind of good about this week. 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:24.840 All right, So you know, one of the benefits of 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:26.600 doing these contests is that I'm in a bunch of 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.760 other contests, so I can bring some of the picks 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:31.480 that I already have locked in or I know that 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.160 we're going to take and those contests and bring it 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.359 to our contest. It's kind of how it's worked out 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:37.560 where my bets and the contest picks have kind of 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:41.360 run similarly. So these are three picks that we're going 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:45.000 to use this week. There's no real particular order for it, 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.840 but we can start with my team because it's my team, 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:53.520 and I think the world is wrong about where the 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:56.639 Dolphins are right now. I think the Dolphins are banged up. 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:58.959 I think it's a rookie quarterback. I'm getting two and 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.160 a half points with the Pageots and a massive bounce 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:04.519 back spot Patriots, I believe will win this game outright. 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:07.000 I'm taking the Patriots plus two and a half. 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.959 You know, I like this game, and it was one 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.880 of the few that was on my list of like, yeah, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:15.520 I kind of feel this way. I mean, if you 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:18.880 anytime you're giving me Bill Belichick versus a rookie quarterback, 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:21.720 I'm always like, yeah, all right, fire that up. The 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.880 Dolphins are just decimated at the end. I mean, mikea 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:26.919 SICKI did return to practice, but I can't imagine he's 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:28.400 gonna play. I don't know what's going on with a 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:30.799 running back situation. I don't think Miles Gaston is gonna 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:33.919 get to play. Devonte Parker is there, He's not at 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.440 one hundred percent. There's no Jaquim Grant. It's just kind 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:40.000 of a mess. You've got the Patriots coming off a 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:45.000 pretty embarrassing loss and a long layoff here where they 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.320 can kind of lick their wounds and get back into it. 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:49.840 Whether or not they're still mathematically alive for a playoff 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:52.160 spot doesn't really matter. I think they're gonna come out. 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.680 But Matt, the one thing is I don't really feel 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:56.400 like I have a great read on this team. I 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:59.320 feel like you have you know when they're gonna play well, 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.280 you know when they're not. Why do you think they're 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.880 gonna play well here? I mean, is it just that 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:07.360 you know, buying lows selling high type of thing or what. 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.320 Well, it's that, but it's won the extra time too. 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:12.560 It's the fact that I think the Patriots defense, much 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.040 like the way that they beat the Chargers, they confuse 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.200 rookie quarterbacks like no end. I mean, they beat the 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.279 Charges forty five nothing two. I don't think two is 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:22.440 the guy. My biggest fear in this game is that 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.640 Ryan Fitzpatrick gets inserted at halftime and the Patriots lose. 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.159 So if two was in the game for all four quarters, 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.720 if Brian Flores is gonna be this is my guy, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.360 I'm riding to it to the end. And I'm not 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:34.280 gonna do what I did in the Denver game where 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.080 Denver totally befuddled him and then they pulled him out. 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.760 I think the same thing happens here. I think he 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:41.840 doesn't have his weapons. If you look at some of 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:45.200 the yarded separations for the receivers, the Dolphins are like 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.680 dead last in separation right now, and that's when they're healthy, 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.800 and they're not healthy at all. You got a good 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.920 second over the Patriots. You got Look, anytime you tell 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.760 the Patriots the year is over, this is where they win. 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:58.160 This is where they rise up. 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:02.479 And they've already beat in the Dolphins once this year, 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:05.359 so I know, historically speaking, everyone's going to use the 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:07.240 stat that I think it's one in four over the 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.520 last five straight up for the Patriots in Miami over 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.599 the last five years, or sorry in December or later, 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:15.520 over the last five meetings. 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:16.320 I get it. 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:18.880 This is a game the Patriots normally lose. But I 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:21.080 just think this is a game where you've got too 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:24.640 many injuries from Miami. They can't move the football on 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:27.279 good defenses, and they rely on their defense to turn 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.360 the football over, but mostly it's with interceptions. As long 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:33.120 as the Patriots don't fumble the football away, I think 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.880 they find creative ways to move the ball on the Dolphins. 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.480 And I think everyone thinks that the Patriots are done 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.200 and plus two and a half give me the Patriots. 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:43.719 Yeah, I mean it's again, it's one of the games 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.200 that I have on my yet. All Right, I kind 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:49.200 of like it. I'm not totally against it, which is 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.839 surprising because sometimes I'm like, oh, you know, this is 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:53.720 one where I could roll with and you're like, nah, man, 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:56.440 I'm on the other side. So that's that's something where 0:05:56.480 --> 0:06:00.640 I think we put in the consensus generally split fifty 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.680 five on Miami, but the contentsus spread is one and 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.440 a half right now, not two and a half. So 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:06.840 you know, I'm fine with it. I think it's a 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.320 good bounce back spot for the Pats. And again I 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:12.800 trust Bill Belichick, although Flores is a fine coach, but here, yeah, 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.880 we don't. We don't love to h we don't, especially 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:17.920 without the weapons. I think it's a decent one. 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.560 I'll start, Oh, wait, so you do have games. 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.120 Oh you just want to go, you can go. 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:27.520 I don't games, So just what games out? 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.039 You go with a couple, then you start with yours, 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:33.440 because it is true like I'm essentially forcing myself to 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.120 pick one or two. But you go ahead with a couple, 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:38.440 and then when you run out, I will throw maybe 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:40.320 a couple of light leans I have if you haven't 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:41.040 covered them already. 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:41.599 No, there's three. 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:46.080 There's three games that the uncomfortable playing. I think this 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:50.440 new found Mitchell Trubitsky's a good quarterback thing is hysterical. 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:55.360 I think this is like fool's gold to the tenth 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:59.480 degree fools gold. So the Houston Texans are trash. They 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:03.000 are they are awful, and everyone's like, oh my gosh, 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:05.960 could Triubitsky have a chance to start? Could he be 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.160 back next year? This isn't the Vikings are gonna kill 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:11.600 the Bears this weekend. This is this is going to be. 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:14.760 I think the Vikings are going to wipe the field 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.520 with Chicago this weekend. And because they got something to 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:19.400 play for, the Bear's got nothing to play for. And 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.240 the second that you give Tribitsky any love or anything 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.480 of a praise, it's when this dude falls on his face, 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.239 laying three and a half. I don't care Vikings minus 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:31.120 three and a half over the Bears. 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.280 Big So I had five games Matt, five games where 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:36.480 I was like, I have a lean on these games. 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:38.680 I don't love these games, but I have a lean 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:42.280 on them. And the rest legitimately fell into these are 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.960 toss ups. If Matt has like a strong feeling on them, 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:47.840 I'll be able to be talked into it. But not 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:50.520 something where I'm definitely going after and you have picked 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:52.800 two of the ones where I've had a lean on 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:54.920 Vikings laying three and a half to the Bears. I 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:58.040 completely agree. I mean it's I feel like Kirk Cousins 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.960 is sort of this this you know, entity that you 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:04.000 can solve, that you can be like, No, this is 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:07.040 a fade Kirk Cousin spot. This is a by Kirk 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.000 Cousins spot. This is more of a fate of the Bears, 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.160 which is what you're saying, which I'm completely fine with. 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:14.680 But I do think that the Vikings are not a 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:16.840 terrible football team. I don't think Kirk Cousins is a 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.440 terrible quarterback. It's just much more of when everybody tries 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:21.520 to buy into him than I'm like no, no, no no, 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:23.640 or when it looks like he's a world beater, then 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:26.080 you're like no, no, no, man, you're done for here. Yeah, 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:28.360 I agree. I have the Vikings winning this game big, 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:30.520 at least I lean that way, So I am good 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:32.920 with that one. This is shocking to me that I 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.959 had five like lean leans and you're just like coming 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.480 and firing on two of them. So go ahead with 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:40.240 your third one. If you hit three out of three. 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:41.480 I don't even know what I'm gonna do, but. 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.200 Go ahead, all right, this is a third and this 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.920 is a numbers play, all right. I don't love this, 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.720 but Dallas Cowboys are catching three and a half points here. 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.240 Dallas is I don't like the Elliott injury, making me 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:59.000 a little skittish, But I think when you have home 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:02.319 dogs late in the year, I think you got to 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:04.080 take a long, hard look at them and kind of 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.240 try to go, Okay, what's the most logical thing that's 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:09.520 gonna happen. And I think Dallas is in a pretty 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.680 good spot here, catching three and a half points at home, 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:17.040 and look, San Francisco can run the football, okay. And 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.240 I know people are saying Nick Mullins, and this is 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.640 a team on the road. Why is Dallas a three 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.120 and a half point dog to anybody at home in 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:27.360 the NFC that's going a losing record like the forty 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.840 nine ers. I'll take the three and a half points 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.000 here and take a three point loss to forty to 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.680 San fran at home and cover on the hook Dallas 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:35.679 plus three and a half. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.160 I have been on both sides of this game, Matt, like, 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.920 I can't get a feel for it. It strikes me 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.719 as Dallas is okay so long as they're playing against 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:48.040 a crappy defense. Right, if they're playing against a decent defense, 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.520 I don't trust that they're able to move the ball. 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:53.880 The line is completely beat up. Andy Dalton is just 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.920 nothing whatsoever. At the same time, San Francisco is nothing 0:09:58.040 --> 0:10:01.080 to write home about, as we saw the What worries 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:03.920 me a little bit is the fact that we've seen 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:07.079 San Francisco look terrible and then come out the following 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.960 week and look pretty decent. Now they've got some injuries here, 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.960 They've got no Deebo Samuel, they may have no Rheem 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:16.000 Mostert here. But I don't know, man, I get it. 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:17.760 This is a week of home dogs, by the way, right, 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:19.360 there are a ton of home dogs this week. 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.840 It's there's only one game in the entire on the 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.880 whole slate with two teams with winning records. Yeah, and 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.000 you've got a lot of short favorites on the road. Yeah, 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:30.040 a lot of home dogs. 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:33.360 Yeah. Well, I don't I'll say this one. I don't 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.680 even have a mild lean on it, So I don't. 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.079 I don't even think I would be tucked into the 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.320 backing Andy Dog. I mean, you know, getting the hook 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:42.720 is fine. The consensus line right now is three. So 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.080 getting the hook certainly is meaningful, especially at home. But 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.280 I don't know, man, I feel like I bet against 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:50.920 the forty nine ers when I shouldn't. So it's something 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:52.520 where i'd put it to the side and like it 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:54.599 would be like, all right, whatever. I don't have a 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.760 strong feeling on it, So if we run out of picks, 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.240 I'd be happy to go with it. But in the meantime, 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.400 I think let's put it to the side for now. 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.520 Let me list the couple of games that you're probably 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.199 gonna hate but that I have mild leans on. Okay, 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:12.120 this one, to me, Matt, seems like the most public 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.600 play to the point where after this past week, the 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.960 line seems like it is begging you, begging you, begging 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.640 you to take the Browns against the Giants four and 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:24.200 a half. The Browns like four and a half to 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.640 the Giants. I get that the Browns are beat up 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.960 on defense. I get the fact that they just play 0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:31.800 the game that they pour their heart and soul into 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.960 and lost, and so they're a little beat up. The Giants, meanwhile, 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:38.160 coming off a terrible loss last week. But again, I 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:40.679 don't know if Daniel Jones is gonna play. If he does, 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.679 it might even be better because he's so limited right 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:47.880 now with the hamstring and the ankle. The Giants defense 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.079 is okay. The Browns have to keep winning though here 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.560 to remain in the playoffs. I mean, they're gonna make 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.319 the playoffs, but to even have a chance at the division. 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.920 With how the Steelers are looking, it just feels like 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.440 the Browns are gonna you know, at four and a half, 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.440 the contentus lines up to six. I don't know. I 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.240 feel like the Browns, but it feels like a public 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:07.559 play to me. So what do you think of that? 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:09.000 Well, it's a public play. 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.160 But I'll tell you the bag men showed up today 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:15.199 in Vegas for the Browns. The Browns number rocketed here 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.000 in Vegas four to six. 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:18.000 Big big movement. 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.760 Why, bag bag bags of money showed up on the 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.440 Cleveland Browns. So if you want to go with the 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.880 professionals as to what they think is going to happen 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.400 where the large wagers are coming in, it's coming in 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.880 on Cleveland. I don't mind this play at all, and 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:37.400 I like that Giants defense up to a point. But 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.920 I think Kevin Stefanski now has got enough weapons that 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:43.880 he has that offense humming against anybody. You take away 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.160 the pass, fine, we'll run down your throat. You want 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:48.559 stack the line, great, Baker's going over the top, and 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.000 he's got guys to pass the football too. I just 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.280 think this team for the Browns is playing really well late. 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.600 I think Stefanski is either the finalist or the coach 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.600 of the Year in the NFL. So I've got no 0:12:58.640 --> 0:12:59.840 problem back in the Browns here. 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.320 Yeah, I've been so impressed with Stefanski and I have 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.040 he was. I have some shares of Coach of the 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.840 Year on him. It was twenty to one. Again, not 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:09.360 coach of the year is kind of a fun bet, 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:10.959 by the way, for futures bet, and maybe we'll talk 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:12.640 about that next year when we get into it about 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.360 the type of things that you can look at. But 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.280 he really has impressed me, even if I wasn't that 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.800 impressed with the higher Another thing here, which I mean 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.720 it's not a huge deal in this type of game 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.240 because the Browns don't have the Odell Beckham junior white 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.480 you know, outside wide receiver at this point. But James 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:32.840 Bradbury is I don't I don't remember if he actually 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:36.160 tested positive or close contact. He's a close conduct, but 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.960 I believe he's been ruled out for this game because 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:40.960 even if you're on the list, you need to test 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:42.960 negative for five days and they're not gonna be an 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.240 effort or something like that. So he's out. So I 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.640 mean that makes it easier probably for Richard Higgins, which 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.120 doesn't really matter, but he's played great, He's had a 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:53.920 great season this year, and losing him on that on 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.680 the defensive backs, that's that's a tough loss for that team. 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.400 So for me at four and a half, it feels public. 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.200 But yeah, I mean I I just sometimes I also 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:04.320 feel like, and again maybe it's not that public given 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.679 what you're saying, but to me, it just also kind 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.440 of feels like it's okay to be public sometimes everything. 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:10.200 Yeah, I think it's a no. 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.160 I think actually the public will sit, will shie away 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.120 from this game simply because I think there's some real 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:15.760 public people that love the Giants. 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:16.360 Really. 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:18.760 Yeah, the Giants have been a pretty popular public play 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:20.840 because I mean, when you watch their defense, I think 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:22.360 a lot of people if you're gonna bet on somebody. 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.400 It's Washington and the New York Giants and the two 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:27.080 best teams you know when you watch them at least 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.560 from week to week, and they've been cashing tickets. I 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:31.440 mean that they won four games in a row and 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:33.360 people were coming in them with home you know, with 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:34.880 with with you know, being. 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:35.880 Plus money dogs. 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:38.240 And so there are some people in the public that 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.320 do like the Giants and Daniel Jones. And it's just 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:41.920 a New York football team too, so you get a 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.080 more high, high profile, bigger market aside to it. So 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:47.520 in Cleveland is kind of people kind of laugh at them, 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.560 right that they expected Baker to fall in his face 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.320 on Monday Night football and they expected, you know that 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.080 the Browns not to rise up into that moment and 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:55.880 they put forty two points up on the on the 0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:59.160 you know, Baltimore Ravens. So I'm I'm fine with back 0:14:59.160 --> 0:14:59.720 in the Browns there. 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.560 Yeah. I really like this team, man, I really do like. 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.200 Their running game is great. I think Baker's playing really 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.760 really at a high level right now. It's They're fun 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:09.280 to watch. So yeah, all right, I'm good with that. 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.560 All right, So there's one I have no idea how 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.680 you're gonna feel about this one, Matt, I really don't, 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:18.240 because you are a noted Bills hater, but you will 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:18.880 back them at the right. 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.080 Well, I've already teased this game, so I'm already invested. 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:22.760 So you're taken the Bills. I'm not gonna hate it. 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.040 I actually wasn't. I was going to take the Broncos 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.280 half boy in Denver. Now I know That's why I 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:30.680 thought you were gonna hate it necessarily. So what if 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:31.920 you teased it to to what I have? 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:32.320 Pick? 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:33.480 Oh, to a pick? 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:39.480 I got it at six, brought the Packers down to two. Okay, 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.960 I do like that Saturday two leg teaser coming down. 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.880 I'm totally ripping this off from from Austin Gale from 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.600 Profile Football Focus, who gave me, who gave me on 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:50.040 the air, who gave me that teaser? And I loved 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:51.640 it and I tailed it, so I can't. I can't 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.040 take it as my own, but I have bet it 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:55.720 that's all right to taking the Bills to a pick 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:57.440 and the and the Packers down to minus two. 0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.520 Yeah, and I do. I do think that the Bills 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.200 are going to win this game. But in Denver, man, 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.200 it is something where six and a half again, I'd 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:08.840 like it, of course if it was at seven. But 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.520 I do feel like, as much as you know, I 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.280 don't like Drew Locke and I don't like Denver, and 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:16.960 they're so injured and the Bills are playing at such 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.200 a high level. Again, the one thing I feel like, 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:23.120 even now, even we could say and you might even 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:25.640 be able to say it in that Pittsburgh game itself, 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.080 is that he's inconsistent and you don't know how it's 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:31.640 gonna come out. John Brown is out for this game, which, again. 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:32.600 You know, I hate Josh Allen. 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.400 Okay, I'm the captain of the Josh Allen. 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.520 I can't stay. So I'm with you and everything you're saying, 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:37.920 I'm with you. 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:38.200 Yeah. 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:40.120 The only thing I'm concerned about is like, what does 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.760 Denver have going for it right now? Maybe what's the motivation? 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:46.600 What's the angle? Who's playing for? 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:46.840 What? 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:48.720 I mean, what are they getting up for? I mean, 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.160 Buffalo is playing for everything right now. 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:53.440 Yeah, No, it's true. I mean, if you want to 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:57.360 look at something, it is a nationally televised primetime game. 0:16:57.440 --> 0:16:59.200 I mean, well I guess not primetime, right, is it 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:01.200 four thirty or what the on the East Coast, but 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.040 it's a nationally televised game that they're going to be 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:06.320 playing a good a very good team at home. Chance 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:08.840 to show something. And again I think you know Buffalo 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.000 is vulnerable. The Steelers couldn't take advantage of it because 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.960 their offensive line can't get any push, but they're very 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.040 vulnerable against the run. And I think you're going to 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.200 see a lot of Melvin Gordon, who is playing well 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.000 and now is not going to be suspended because the 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:22.680