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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game, do us proud

2
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Speaker 1: red enough?

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Speaker 2: No running again? So smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Slipid sixteen just glorious extecution. Guys, all I'm looking for

5
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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind bog buddy, and.

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Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 3: the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The one is left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drilled bibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hellorie one and welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting

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Speaker 5: podcast from the actual that represented to you by BED

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Speaker 5: three sixty five. My name's Michael Leebuff and joining me

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Speaker 5: as always are bj Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. Together the

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Speaker 5: three of us will break down the upcoming quartet of

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Speaker 5: Champions LEAUE quarter final matches the second legs on Tuesday

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Speaker 5: and Wednesday, and we can touch a little bit on

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Speaker 5: Europa League. But before we do that, thirty seconds each

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Speaker 5: on what we saw today in the Premier League. We'll

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Speaker 5: start with you BJ Arsenal losing to Villa Liverpool losing

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Speaker 5: to Crystal Palace, City on their way to.

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Speaker 2: Second consecutive treble. Unprecedented.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm even I mean the way that people are

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Speaker 1: talking right now, it seems like City has already been

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Speaker 1: crowned champions, right, like the title race is over just

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Speaker 1: because Arsenal dropped a couple of points here and there. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Fortress crumbled today, Michael. That was so stunning to

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Speaker 1: see you call that congratulations a nice call, But no,

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's performance and we'll get into it here in a

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Speaker 1: little bit, but they played really well for the first

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Speaker 1: sixty minutes and then just lost control. And that's one

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Speaker 1: of the few times that I've seen them actually do

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Speaker 1: that this season. I don't think to trend or something

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Speaker 1: that's going to continue to happen, especially once we get

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Speaker 1: to this barn Munich match. But I think everybody as

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Speaker 1: we'll get to as well. But I think your naive

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Speaker 1: to say that City is just going to easily go

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Speaker 1: right to the title. I think this title race is

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Speaker 1: still very very much on.

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Speaker 4: So the updated title odd City minus two twenty five

45
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Speaker 4: went from plus two to two weeks ago to minus

46
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Speaker 4: two twenty five in two weeks. You know, it was

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Speaker 4: so perfect because I was kind of dreading having to

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Speaker 4: come on this pod because I knew what you know,

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Speaker 4: I'd watched the walls of Anfield come tumbling down today

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Speaker 4: Thursday at Atlanta. I think kind of laid the groundwork

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Speaker 4: and exposed the cracks in their defensive fortitude. And it

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, they created over three and a

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Speaker 4: half XG. Nobody can deny that Liverpool is very good

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Speaker 4: at creating chances, but ultimately it is their defense that

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Speaker 4: has kind of done them here. You know, they can

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Speaker 4: see two to United drop points. They only end up

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Speaker 4: giving up one the Palace, but really it should have

58
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Speaker 4: been too. Palace had numerous chances to double the lead there.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I'm sad that the fortress has has crumbled.

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Speaker 4: I know it's been a running thing on the show,

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Speaker 4: and I think when we look at the remaining matches,

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Speaker 4: Taughtenham away is pro and Villa home like what's left

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Speaker 4: on the city schedule here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's taught them away.

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Speaker 2: You could lose, You could lose to anybody.

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Speaker 5: That's Arsenals Villa really much. Yeah, And I mean I

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Speaker 5: think I think my prediction we'll move on right after

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Speaker 5: this because we are betting podcasts is that all three

69
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Speaker 5: teams will still drop points to between now and then,

70
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Speaker 5: and I know that's more likely than that, but I

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Speaker 5: think that's how i'se look at it. Okay, that's in

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Speaker 5: the rear view. Now we look ahead, We look ahead

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Speaker 5: to Tuesday. I will start with Barcelona and PSG. This

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Speaker 5: one in Barcelona camp New the home team. They are

75
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Speaker 5: plus one twenty five favorites, PSG traveling at plus one

76
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Speaker 5: ninety five. The draw here is plus two eighty five

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Speaker 5: at least odds from bet three six five.

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Speaker 2: So are the two.

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Speaker 5: Advanced line, which has Barcelona as a prohibitive minus four

80
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Speaker 5: to twenty five favorite with a three to two lead

81
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Speaker 5: PSG plus three twenty two advanced. Anything interest you here, Anthony?

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Speaker 4: Well, so you know, the first leg, the total took

83
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Speaker 4: a ton of money and I kind of held my

84
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Speaker 4: nose and played the under three.

85
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Speaker 3: And let's just say that was wrong, way wrong.

86
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Speaker 5: But I think there was a lot of that on

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Speaker 5: our on our last podcast, there was a lot of

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Speaker 5: totally totally wrong stuffy hands.

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Speaker 2: We made up for it this weekend.

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Speaker 3: The Champions League was rough.

91
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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Outside of it, God bless them, Yes,

92
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Speaker 4: But job's not done. I will say, if you had

93
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Speaker 4: to pick the match that was going to be the

94
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Speaker 4: most open back and forth, it was very obviously PSG

95
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Speaker 4: and Barca because neither of these teams really have defensive

96
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Speaker 4: midfielders and it just ended up being in the basketball

97
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Speaker 4: match that we, you know, kind of hoped for. It

98
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Speaker 4: was very different than Real Madrid City, even though both

99
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Speaker 4: games had five plus goals, even Arsenal Byron very different

100
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Speaker 4: than that way the PSG BARSA played out. My thing is,

101
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Speaker 4: so Barsta comes home with the lead, are they able

102
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Speaker 4: to slow it down? I really don't think so. I

103
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Speaker 4: don't think the way that this team is built, given

104
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Speaker 4: their lack of midfield ball winning, and it's really been

105
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Speaker 4: a problem since GAVI went out months ago. It's what

106
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Speaker 4: I think ultimately led to their defensive numbers taking such

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Speaker 4: a fall. What is to stop PSG in this match

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Speaker 4: and BARSA for that matter, Because you know the total

109
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Speaker 4: is a little over three now I have it right

110
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Speaker 4: around three, so I'm not like running to the window

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Speaker 4: to bet the over. But to me, I just don't

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Speaker 4: think Barsa is all that capable of playing a style

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Speaker 4: to kill off a game. This is not you know

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Speaker 4: an at Leti where they can put numbers behind the ball.

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Speaker 4: This is not even a good defensive team right now

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Speaker 4: in Barcelona, even though they're now the favorites to make

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Speaker 4: the final. I just don't trust them, and we had

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Speaker 4: it was a very quiet Mbope game in Paris last week.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we don't know.

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Speaker 4: I mean, but there's nothing stopping in Bape in this

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Speaker 4: Barsa team when you look at how they're designed. They

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Speaker 4: I thought it was interesting, right they came out first match,

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Speaker 4: they go up a goal at half. Second half, they

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Speaker 4: actually tried to sit off a little and it was

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Speaker 4: a disaster. They were not able to keep control of

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Speaker 4: the match. PSG hit them bang bang, quick quick, and

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Speaker 4: then Barsa was like, oh that's not going to work.

128
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Speaker 4: We have to go back on the attack and they ultimately,

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Speaker 4: you know, turn the match around.

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Speaker 1: But their complete.

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Speaker 4: Inability to absorb any pressure at all does not bode

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Speaker 4: well for them as a favorite, already holding a lead

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Speaker 4: in the aggregate. So I definitely can't take Barsa here.

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Speaker 4: I have a pretty strong lean to PSG. You know,

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Speaker 4: it's kind of like what we said on last week's pod,

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Speaker 4: where we were like, look, I don't know that there's

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Speaker 4: a huge gap between these two teams as currently constructed.

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Speaker 4: So I'm willing to play BARSA plus a half at PSG,

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Speaker 4: and I'm kind of saying, hey, like PSG plus a

140
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Speaker 4: half at BARSA. It's not quite a half, so it

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Speaker 4: is a little different, more of a quarter. But PSG

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Speaker 4: plus a half at BARSA probably play that too, and

143
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Speaker 4: just say like, this match ends in a draw a

144
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Speaker 4: lot of the time and regardless of where they play it,

145
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Speaker 4: just because of how little both teams can control it.

146
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Speaker 4: That for me it would be PSG or nothing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I tend to agree thinking about maybe you know,

148
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Speaker 1: both teams to score over two and a half something

149
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Speaker 1: like that, because Anthony's right when you walk away from

150
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Speaker 1: that match, or something that I took away from that matches.

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Speaker 1: You know, what Barcelona should do for the next week

152
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Speaker 1: is just practice blocking shots because they are so bad

153
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Speaker 1: at defending in the box and there was so many

154
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Speaker 1: instances where they were just a half second late on

155
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Speaker 1: one of the PSG shots and the shot goes in.

156
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Speaker 1: You know, even the first goal from den Bile, it

157
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Speaker 1: was really a low quality chance, but Barcelona did a

158
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Speaker 1: poor job of closing him down and good finishers will

159
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Speaker 1: tend to finish time and time again. But Anthony's definitely right.

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Speaker 1: Barcelona is not a team that can just sit back.

161
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Speaker 1: But it does kind of favor them a little bit

162
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Speaker 1: in the fact that since PSG has to go for

163
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Speaker 1: this game, and since Barcelona is much better at building

164
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Speaker 1: out of the back now that Deyong and Pedrie are

165
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Speaker 1: both healthy, it's it's a relative back and forth game

166
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Speaker 1: that I think could end with a lot of goals,

167
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Speaker 1: again kind of similar to the first leg, and with

168
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Speaker 1: PSG having to press in Barcelona having that pace to

169
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Speaker 1: get in behind you. Raffinia obviously had two goals in

170
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Speaker 1: a great game in the first leg. That pace between

171
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Speaker 1: him and the end and the other winger is going

172
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Speaker 1: to cost PSG a lot of problems since they are

173
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Speaker 1: the ones that to be aggressive and go for this game.

174
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Speaker 1: So I do like both team to score on over

175
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Speaker 1: two and a half, which is still at a decent

176
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Speaker 1: price right now. But if you want to chase something,

177
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Speaker 1: I think over three and a half at a decent

178
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Speaker 1: plus number I think is worth it because the reality

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Speaker 1: is I think this game probably ends in either a

180
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Speaker 1: stalemate where Barcelona has a good defensive performance or it

181
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Speaker 1: just gets completely off the rails. That's where I'm on

182
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Speaker 1: this one.

183
00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually think that there the way to play

184
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 5: this would be you could do Barcelona to advance then

185
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,400
Speaker 5: start rolling something or if you wanted to bet them

186
00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 5: to win the tournament, I'm sorry not Barcelona PSG to

187
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,640
Speaker 5: do that. At plus three twenty, that's an appealing number.

188
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,240
Speaker 5: I know they're down, they're down a goal, but without

189
00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 5: the away the away goals rule and like you guys say,

190
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,679
Speaker 5: like there should be some chaos in this match if

191
00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:35,440
Speaker 5: it goes one direction plus like, there's no You try

192
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,840
Speaker 5: not to look into like historical narratives, but these there's

193
00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 5: a lot of history with these two teams. It feels

194
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 5: like it has there's gonna be something to this one.

195
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Speaker 5: And if you do believe that, rather than play the

196
00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,640
Speaker 5: the three way line on PSG or something, I would

197
00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:55,319
Speaker 5: bet the the two advance here at plus three twenty.

198
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,640
Speaker 5: I think that that's fine. I also think backing PSG

199
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,440
Speaker 5: to win the Champions leagu because if they do come

200
00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 5: back and win this, obviously the path is there for

201
00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,600
Speaker 5: them to get into the final. As Anthony said, Barcelona

202
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,720
Speaker 5: is a favorite to get into the final right now.

203
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:13,120
Speaker 5: On that side, So why not take a shot with

204
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,800
Speaker 5: PSG at plus four point fifty or if you want

205
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 5: plus fourteen hundred to win the tournament. So that's how

206
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:19,560
Speaker 5: I would look at it.

207
00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is not a new problem for Barcelona either.

208
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:24,800
Speaker 4: I want to kind of point out that this is

209
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 4: something that has plagued them against good competition for the

210
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,719
Speaker 4: most of the Choli hernandez Era, because we go back

211
00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:34,880
Speaker 4: to last year, right, they get the Bayern inter group

212
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,440
Speaker 4: that they failed to get out of. Both teams had

213
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,200
Speaker 4: a ton of success kind of breaking down this Chovy

214
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,120
Speaker 4: team in transition, even when they were better defensively last year,

215
00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,920
Speaker 4: which they were, and then it never translated quite into Europe.

216
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,439
Speaker 4: And then they played Man United back when Man United

217
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,959
Speaker 4: was a competent team, and United really crushed them in

218
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,439
Speaker 4: transition in both legs and ultimately went through. And remember

219
00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,559
Speaker 4: that second leg. I mean both legs were chaotic, but

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Speaker 4: the second leg was a two to one game where

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Speaker 4: neither team could stop the other because United's defense had

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Speaker 4: really already started to fall off by then, and it

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Speaker 4: just happened that United scored the last goal. And I

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Speaker 4: think that this kind of feels like that, And so

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Speaker 4: you know, who scores. I don't know, but even if

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Speaker 4: you look at their La Liiga numbers right now, Barsa

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Speaker 4: looked pretty good in the group this season, but again,

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Speaker 4: like that group was not particularly tough, with Porteo and

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Speaker 4: Shaktar and Royal Antwerp two of the you know five

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Speaker 4: or six worst teams in the whole tournament their tenth

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Speaker 4: in field tilt and Spain twentieth and final third to

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Speaker 4: box entry conversion rate ninth and set piece defense in

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Speaker 4: La Liga. I mean, it's just not a good enough

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Speaker 4: goal prevention unit to trust them here. So I think

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Speaker 4: PSG is far from out of it. Even if they

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Speaker 4: go down a goal. I don't think they're out of it. Like,

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Speaker 4: I just don't really think Barsia is capable of playing

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Speaker 4: without the ball enough to make this work. So sets

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Speaker 4: up for some fun. This one I think will be

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Speaker 4: much more exciting than the other one. But you never

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Speaker 4: know what thrtmand.

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Speaker 3: You never quite know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's let's move on to that one. You

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Speaker 2: never know.

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Speaker 1: You never quite know.

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Speaker 5: With Dortmund, what we do know is that they are

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Speaker 5: down to one heading home at Letty. Dortmund is a

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Speaker 5: plus one twenty five favorite in dismatch on the three

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Speaker 5: way line, at Letty is a plus two to ten underdog.

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Speaker 2: At the jaw here is plus two sixty five.

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Speaker 5: Dortmann plus one ninety five two advance at Letty is

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Speaker 5: minus two forty five. Anthony and myself we were talking

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Speaker 5: about how we liked los Cochonnaros in the first leg.

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Speaker 5: They get the job done. Not perfectly, I would say,

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Speaker 5: but they get it done. Now they head to Dortmund here.

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Speaker 5: I would still lean towards Simeoni's men on the three

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Speaker 5: way line at this price, but I'm happy just to

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Speaker 5: keep riding with our boys here.

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Speaker 2: BJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this this sets up for just a classic Semoni scenario, right,

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Speaker 1: Just let's let's park the bus and let's see this

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Speaker 1: one out. You know, Athletico really did expose a lot

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Speaker 1: of the problems that Doorman has defensively in that first leg.

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Speaker 1: They did in transition they've played through the middle of

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Speaker 1: the pitch with really good success. And you know that's

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Speaker 1: what kind of nothing really worries me about Athletico here.

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Speaker 1: I just really, you know, I love to get them

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Speaker 1: at plus a half, right, but that's just numbers just

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Speaker 1: not there right now. We have to pay you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty minus one fifty five in that range,

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Speaker 1: and you know, I have this projected pretty close surround

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Speaker 1: to where it is right now. We'll see what kind

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Speaker 1: of Dortmund team we get. There's really never been a

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Speaker 1: Dormant performance that I've walked away from being like, man,

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Speaker 1: they completely dominated that team, or they really you know,

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Speaker 1: with their backs against the wall, really came through it,

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Speaker 1: actually got it done. You know, maybe against Bayern Munich

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Speaker 1: when they actually beat them at the Alliance Arena earlier

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Speaker 1: this season, but they got out played for most of

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Speaker 1: that match and just got a couple transition attacks. So

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Speaker 1: those transition attacks are not going to be here. And

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Speaker 1: what attackers do Dormant actually have that can be really

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Speaker 1: good inside the box or really good at breaking down

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Speaker 1: block I don't Outside of the vational error, I don't

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Speaker 1: really see. You know. Demi's obviously a much is a

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Speaker 1: really good transition striker, but all of the guys and

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Speaker 1: the pieces that they have are built to be a

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Speaker 1: good transition offense. Not gonna have that in this scenario.

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Speaker 1: So for me, it's a pass just you know, I

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Speaker 1: know everybody as an athletic coach to advanced ticket just

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Speaker 1: ride that. I probably wouldn't hedge. I would just I

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Speaker 1: would honestly just let it ride. So yeah, for me,

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Speaker 1: it's a pass here. I just don't really see a

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Speaker 1: scenario how Dorman actually breaks them down. I'm gonna stare

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Speaker 1: hard at under three for this entire week, until the matchers,

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Speaker 1: until Tuesday, until it happens. But that's what's the juice

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Speaker 1: on that? What's that?

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Speaker 3: What's the juice on that?

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Speaker 1: It's about minus one twenty right now, So yeah, under

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Speaker 1: three is about minus one twenty, So that's high. For see,

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Speaker 1: it is high. It is very high. We'll see what happens.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, this is just wall of Simeoni. See if

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Speaker 1: we can, you know, stand tall once again.

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Speaker 4: There's kind of two schools of thought to this for me,

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Speaker 4: because look, Dortmund essentially handed at Letti two goals. If

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Speaker 4: you go back and watch the two the actual goals,

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Speaker 4: I mean, they could not have better just given the

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Speaker 4: ball away in really high situations. That came from ed

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Speaker 4: Letti playing at home, knowing they needed to push the

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Speaker 4: issue to create margin and playing with a higher line,

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Speaker 4: pushing up the pitch more than you would normally expect

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Speaker 4: Simeoni to do in a Champions League match. So my

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Speaker 4: question is if they you know, Simoni has two options.

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Speaker 4: The first school of thought is, okay, that really worked.

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Speaker 4: We clearly frazzled them. They're really shitty defensively in possession.

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Speaker 4: They give you the ball a lot, They're gonna give

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Speaker 4: us a chance. We might be able to steal one

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Speaker 4: early and put this to bed. The other school thought

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Speaker 4: is what we traditionally think of Simeoni, which is, hey,

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Speaker 4: we can sit deep and we can kind of absorb pressure.

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Speaker 3: And I really don't trust this Dortmund team.

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Speaker 4: If you watched the last fifteen minutes of the first leg,

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Speaker 4: I'm Simeoni. I don't think you can show up here

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Speaker 4: and park the bus for ninety minutes. I don't think

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Speaker 4: they're good enough defensively. The last fifteen minutes not only

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Speaker 4: did Dortmand score, but they also hit the post and

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Speaker 4: stoppage time came close on a couple other looks like

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Speaker 4: Dortmund I think has enough firepower offensively that if they

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Speaker 4: Letty comes here and tries to play for the nil nil,

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Speaker 4: or even play kind of like we're gonna sit off

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Speaker 4: and not really a pressure at all, I think it's

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Speaker 4: really dangerous because we saw Inter almost do that defensively

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Speaker 4: in the last twenty to thirty minutes against Aletti and

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Speaker 4: let you back in the tie in a match that

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Speaker 4: interred controlled for.

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Speaker 3: The first one hundred and thirty five minutes.

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Speaker 4: Including the first leg. So there's two ways looking at

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Speaker 4: this one. I think live unders are good kind of

339
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Speaker 4: like whichever result happens. So if there's an early goal,

340
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Speaker 4: kind of like the first match where I Letty went

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Speaker 4: up one nil in the first minute, you could have

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Speaker 4: grabbed the undther three and a half. I think if

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Speaker 4: a Letti gets one, you're gonna see first of all Dortmund.

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Speaker 4: I mean clearly, yes, they have to push more, but

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Speaker 4: there's a there's a psychological effect of going down like

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Speaker 4: that and kind of feeling out of it against Simeoni.

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Speaker 4: Down two and you're gonna see Simeoni to say, hey,

348
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Speaker 4: we got a two goal lead, We're really gonna sit

349
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Speaker 4: really deep, put ten guys behind the ball. But three

350
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 4: for me at minus one twenty is high. And I

351
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Speaker 4: know the first leg went over, but again that was

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Speaker 4: with Doormand giving away two goals. I think they're less

353
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Speaker 4: likely to do that at home. So at three I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna beout the under.

355
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Speaker 1: How about how about this dormand under one and a

356
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 1: half is minus one twenty right now, that might be

357
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Speaker 1: the way to go on the snaro because you're, like

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Speaker 1: you said, Anthony, basically any school thought whether Athletico wants

359
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Speaker 1: to press high or if they want to sit in

360
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Speaker 1: their defensive block. I mean, even if they can seede one,

361
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Speaker 1: I can, I almost guarantee you they're just going to

362
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Speaker 1: fall back in their defensive block and just play in

363
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 1: the position.

364
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Speaker 3: So I like that too. Maybe also put it.

365
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, so maybe maybe that's the scenario would go with

366
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: here instead of the doorman gives away two or three

367
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Speaker 1: goals and on the break and just zero in on fading.

368
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Speaker 3: This block master class, loading all.

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Speaker 1: Block master class. That's right.

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00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,119
Speaker 5: Okay, those are the Tuesday games. Let's move on to

371
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 5: the Wednesday once before we do a reminder that wonder

372
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 5: goal is proudly presented by bet three six five Bet

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00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 5: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Okay Wednesday now

388
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 5: Man City buoyant after the fortress crumbled, After Arsenal lost

389
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 5: travel crumbled, ye two fortresses crumbled. We'll see if a

390
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 5: third one does on Monday at Stanford Bridge, but for

391
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 5: now focus will be on City as a minus one

392
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 5: sixty favorite on the three way line against Real Madrid.

393
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 5: Real Madrid is plus four hundred here the draw is

394
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 5: plus three thirty. These two teams arenotted up three to three.

395
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 5: The two advanced line, nonetheless is minus three to ten

396
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 5: for City and plus two thirty five for Real Madrid,

397
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 5: which seems absolutely bonkers.

398
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 2: I agree Real Madrid is really good.

399
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 5: I know City is really good, but Real Madrid is too,

400
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 5: which I guess kind of leads to where I'm going here.

401
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 5: I think you can bet Madrid whatever your favorite way is.

402
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:30,880
Speaker 5: I am not going to give you advice one way

403
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 5: or the other. I think if you want to bet

404
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 5: them to win on the three way line, I think

405
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 5: if you want them to bet them to win to advance,

406
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 5: however you want to do it, you go for it

407
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 5: because I think that the numbers are there for you

408
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 5: to do so.

409
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 2: This looks like a.

410
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 5: Little bit of an overreaction from the events which transpired

411
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 5: over this past weekend. I think there was a very

412
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 5: I think maybe the first time in their history of

413
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 5: our podcast that we looked back and gave our thoughts

414
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 5: on something that happened retrospectively to start off a show.

415
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 5: But I wanted I gave Anthony the blessing to do

416
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 5: so because I think it actually matters in this case

417
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,400
Speaker 5: for projecting out the City and Real Madrid match, which

418
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 5: is it feels like everyone's now thinking that this is

419
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 5: going to be a city walk walk about to three

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00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 5: different titles, and that is bleeding into the market. We

421
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 5: know that Madrid will be they'll be ready to go

422
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 5: here like this isn't We're not talking about Dortmund coming

423
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,199
Speaker 5: in or whoever. Like this is a team that can

424
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 5: absolutely take it to City. That the three to three

425
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,199
Speaker 5: game was insane. It kind of showed you that you

426
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 5: can absolutely you can't. You can you can lose to

427
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 5: Real Madrid in so many different ways, and they were

428
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 5: kind of all on display at various points in that

429
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 5: first leg. So I don't know, I think that this

430
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 5: city line looks way out of whack here and I'd

431
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 5: be happy to take a shot on Real Madrid, Anthony.

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00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 4: So I'm hoping we get more city money because if

433
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 4: this gets to one, I'm going to take Real Madrid.

434
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 4: And I can't believe I'm saying that it's like it

435
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 4: like hurt to take say those words come out of

436
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: my mouth, But I mean the first leg, so Debruno

437
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 4: doesn't play, which I think is kind of the most

438
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 4: important thing we have to consider. You know, he gets sick,

439
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 4: he doesn't start, and did that change what City wanted

440
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 4: to do and how much did that affect their ability

441
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 4: to create chances because really, like I know, they scored

442
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 4: three goals, and it's silly for me to sit here

443
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 4: and say, hey, you know, the team that scored three

444
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 4: goals really didn't.

445
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 3: Play that well. But they really didn't.

446
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 4: And I rewatched large portions of the first half where

447
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 4: you know, City scores from a Silva free kick, and

448
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 4: City scores on a phot in twenty five yard screamer,

449
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 4: and then Gavardiol panic shot and it went into the corner.

450
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: So all of those things happen and City gets three goals,

451
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 4: and we say, oh, what a great job by City.

452
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 4: I thought there were way more opportunities where City's defense

453
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 4: was in peril slash getting stretched, slash being pushed by

454
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 4: Rodrigo Vinicius and Ben Bellingham. Then the other side, I

455
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: thought realbu was defense did really well in limiting cities

456
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 4: kind of deep penetration into the penalty area. The problem, though,

457
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 4: is that too of Many is now out and debrun

458
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 4: is probably back. And that's the two things that scare

459
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 4: me from saying, hey, like Real Madrid is live here.

460
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,719
Speaker 4: That's why I want the full goal protection on Real Madrid,

461
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 4: because I do think City could squeak this win. I

462
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 4: wouldn't shock me if they're rightful favorites. Of course they're

463
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 4: at home, they're the tribal winners. And but this real

464
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 4: Madrid defense is really better. And that was my always

465
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 4: my thing with them in the past.

466
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 1: The past real.

467
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 4: Madrid teams played no defense.

468
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 3: It was yolo ball.

469
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 4: It was courtois is gonna be amazing, We're going to

470
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: out vibes. You and leab Off made put a ton

471
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 4: of money against us, kind of vetting them and winning

472
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 4: on vibes. But this real Madrid team actually defense, and

473
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 4: they actually are giving up. I said this on last

474
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 4: week's pod. They're giving up like point seven to eight

475
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 4: actually pro ninety in Spain the last two months. And

476
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 4: you know, there was a lot made of the struggles

477
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 4: against Leipzig and how they kind of were even with

478
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 4: Leipzig over two legs, and I think that's notable, but.

479
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: It wasn't because the defense struggled.

480
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 4: They only gave up two point two xg over two

481
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: matches to Leipsig.

482
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: It's not bad.

483
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 4: It was because the attack was bad. And remember that

484
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 4: Bellingham didn't play the first leg against Leipzig and the

485
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 4: second leg they didn't play a striker. They kind of

486
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: just sat really deep and it was like a weird performance.

487
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 4: They tactically was kind of off and they were kind

488
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 4: of getting booed in their home ground. But you know,

489
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 4: when they have those three guys and they have a

490
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,160
Speaker 4: really solid defense, it's just a much more solid team

491
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 4: all around to actually have a go at City. And

492
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 4: they did kind of have a go in the first

493
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 4: meeting too. They weren't just sitting really deep encountering. They

494
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 4: actually kind of like forced some mistakes with City in

495
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 4: their possession and turned them over and then ran at them.

496
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 3: And so.

497
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 4: City's defense, they'll let you have the ball, and now

498
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 4: teams that have the ability and the talent like Real

499
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 4: Madrid to exploit it, we're able to find success. I

500
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 4: don't think this City team is going to do what

501
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 4: last year's City team did at home. I know the

502
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 4: first leg ended up in the draw, just like last year,

503
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: but I don't think after watching that first match that

504
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 4: this City team is about to press and smush Real

505
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 4: Madrid in Manchester on Wednesday.

506
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 3: And I think the market kind of thinks that.

507
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: I totally agree. I mean, this is something that we've

508
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: been saying for a while, that City's just not as

509
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: good out of possession as they've been in years past.

510
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: You know, I've read the stats before the Lootontown match

511
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: where they were basically average, and all the pressing stats

512
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: that match in the Premier League. And the problem is

513
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 1: is that you know structurally how City set up this

514
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 1: season as opposed to a season before. You know, last

515
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: season they had Gundagan, a guy who could crash the box,

516
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: gift for it. Rodri could actually sit deep and play

517
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: more of the defensive midfielder role in that ball stopping role,

518
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: whereas now they don't have that box crashing midfielder and

519
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: Rodri has to be the one that does that. And

520
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 1: what we know about Real Madrid is that they are

521
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: best when they can just sit off the ball passively

522
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: and then just counter you. When City is committing that

523
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: many guys forward to try and create an overload, it

524
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: creates three v three situations, and that happened a lot

525
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: in the first leg. And if you're going three v

526
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: three versus Bellingham, Venetias Junior and Rodrigo, I don't care

527
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: who you are, you're screwed. Like that's about as deadly

528
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: as it gets going in transition. And I think the

529
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 1: thing that was very evident in the first leg is

530
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: that Holland got completely neutralized. He had eighteen touches in total,

531
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: four in the penalty box and one shot. Like Real

532
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: Madrid had a really good game plan on how to

533
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: stop him, and like Anthy said, like City hit a

534
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: bunch of screamers and you just kind of have to

535
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: live with that. It went both ways, right, And I.

536
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: Was on Green Dot Daily with Sean Kerner.

537
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 4: We did a live at three right when the game kicked,

538
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: and I had a separate stream up and if you

539
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 4: go back and watch, can see me just shake my

540
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 4: head a couple of times because it was already one

541
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: one by the time I got off the call. At

542
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 4: that time, I'm like, well, under two and a half

543
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: might not make it very much at this point, exactly

544
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: that being said three three again for this one.

545
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 1: I know one last thing I'll say, because I do

546
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: like Real Madrid to advance here, is that you know,

547
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: when you can play passively and play a good defensive

548
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 1: block like Real Madrid can, like they can just sit office,

549
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: they don't have to go for anything early on here.

550
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: And with City taking only twelve shots in the previous meeting,

551
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: with only four of those actually coming inside the penalty area,

552
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: like if they said Real Madrid can repeat that defensive

553
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: performance the exact same way here in this leg and

554
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 1: then have those opportunities in transition. So this number's crazy.

555
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 1: I don't care whatever he said. City is not as

556
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 1: good as they were last year, and I don't care

557
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: if just you know, and obviously de Bruen it does

558
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: make a difference, but I don't think it makes it

559
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 1: that much of a difference to the point, like you said, Anthony,

560
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: where the market thinks they're just going to be as

561
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: good as they were last year, So Real Madrid to

562
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 1: advance for me.

563
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 4: So that's part of the thing that I'm like a

564
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 4: little bit leaning toward the under again. I mean, if

565
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 4: it's three minus one ten, I'm gonna play it again.

566
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 4: The thing about City, right, so they don't press and

567
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 4: they're not as good at it. Some of it is

568
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 4: a choice, like they sit off a more and they're

569
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 4: more conservative, try to protect their back line.

570
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: What is Kyle Walker's.

571
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 4: Status, because I think that's really important here because it

572
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: was very evident to me that they were getting stretched

573
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 4: up the same wing over and over again, and that's

574
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 4: the area where Venetias operates and the area where Kyle

575
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 4: Walker usually operates, but didn't in the first leg, so

576
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 4: I think, you know, the update is that he's probably

577
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 4: not gonna play. So as a result, kind of a

578
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 4: little more hesitant on Cities defense, even if they're gonna

579
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 4: sit off a little more not pressed, like you don't.

580
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 3: Have your best speed demon.

581
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 4: Stopper Venetia's stopper on the one side, But then on

582
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 4: the other side, do they have to attack with as

583
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 4: much if debrun is there, because Dobruna makes up for

584
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 4: so much of like the whole thing where Foden can't

585
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 4: get forward as much when Debruna's not there because Foden

586
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 4: has to do what do Berna does, and then everything

587
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:13,360
Speaker 4: kind of.

588
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 3: Gets weird from there.

589
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 4: So I kind of think City without Walker and with

590
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 4: Dobruna is going to be about as conservative as they

591
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 4: can be to avoid transition and to say, hey, look

592
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 4: like we just trust Debruno to do some magic with

593
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 4: Grealish or with Foden with Holland and say hey, like,

594
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 4: we don't need to attack with anyone else because we're

595
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 4: so deathly afraid. So we're not going to press, We're

596
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 4: not going to attack. We're going to turn this into

597
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 4: a stalemate, which again I think I mean still kind

598
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 4: of favors Real if you think about it playing out

599
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 4: that way. So if you go back and look, City

600
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 4: hit them early. It was an early turnover the led

601
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: to the first goal in the first match and the

602
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 4: second leg last year without it, I think this plays

603
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 4: out under three pretty comfortably, like it really lets you

604
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 4: get the early goal. This game is very stale matey.

605
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and probably no john Stones as well, which is

606
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: also very important for City of how they actually want

607
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: to build out because he is the one that actually

608
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: inverts in the midfield. And with the Kanji being questionable

609
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: as well, it's just it's not good for City.

610
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: I think it starts, it's my prediction mm hmm, because

611
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: I think they need the pace, they need the Yeah,

612
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 4: they need the true full back to try to run

613
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 4: them with the niches.

614
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: Otherwise it's really dangerous.

615
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 4: And I know leab Off is like about to shed

616
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 4: a tear because we're all back in real Madrid here

617
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: for the first time in like pot, I don't think

618
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 4: we've all ever bet Real Madrid.

619
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 5: I would be the only one doing it, and then

620
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 5: you guys would just come on the next week and

621
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 5: be like you know that that was a stupid game.

622
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 2: What ah.

623
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 5: Then they'd win the title and he'd be like, that

624
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 5: was just another stupid We.

625
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: Come on and say, man, that was a stupid game

626
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: and thank god Real Madrid.

627
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, just the tournament.

628
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 5: We're going to talk so much about the Euros and that.

629
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 5: It's really hard to do as someone who when you're

630
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 5: covering betting, but you just have to consider the format

631
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 5: a competition, I think, and there are teams and coaches.

632
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: That just do such a good job at it. Don

633
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 2: Carlo Don Carlo was one.

634
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, look, I don't we don't you know

635
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 4: March Madness. So much of the discussion is like this

636
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 4: coach is ATS forty against spread historically? I mean, if

637
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 4: you did like an ATS historically, I don't know, we

638
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 4: don't have the numbers. If you did ATS Champions League historically,

639
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: Guardiola would probably be who's the Guardiola comp In men's

640
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 4: college basketball?

641
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 3: Is it like uh Rick Barnes, I don't even know.

642
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 4: But like he he would rank pretty poorly because it

643
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 4: feels like City gets these lofty power ratings from dominating

644
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 4: leagues and then they just kind of always always generally

645
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 4: come up short and look there are exceptions, but even

646
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 4: the final last year, I can't tell you how many

647
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 4: people were like, you're crazy for betting Inter they have

648
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: no chance against City, They're going to get their doors

649
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 4: kicked in, and then it was like a first and

650
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 4: even this the Chelsea match, No way, Chelsea can beat

651
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 4: City again three times in one one season, No way.

652
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: And then they I'll played them too. So like we've

653
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 4: seen Guardiola not be the greatest tournament coach.

654
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it makes sense. Bad luck obviously, yeah,

655
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 5: but it makes sense because like when you when you

656
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 5: think about the like the preparation and stuff, so much

657
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 5: is devoted to, like I think rhythms of a of

658
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 5: a season that and when you're in a tournament all

659
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 5: over Europe, it's throws that off.

660
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: So I think there's some credits to that.

661
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 5: All right, let's wrap things up with Arsenal and Bayern

662
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 5: in Germany. Great scenes that in in the Bundesliga today

663
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 5: with bayer Leverkusen win in their first title. I think

664
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 5: I've told you guys this, but I did a little

665
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 5: bit of work for bayer Leverkusen about a decade ago,

666
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 5: so I feel like I deserve a little bit of credit.

667
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 5: Or I get my name on the cup here. So

668
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: congrats to my former employers.

669
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: By never knew that. Yeah, yeahbo.

670
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: Here's the fun fact. Lebov also ran from Mayor.

671
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 2: I did.

672
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, that was a little bit after I ran for

673
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 5: Mayor before I worked for Bayer LEVERKUSA.

674
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:06,959
Speaker 2: But I'm not kidding.

675
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 5: I did anyways of many hats. Yeah, and yet here

676
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 5: I am Byron Is at home and they are plus

677
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 5: one forty favorite.

678
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: It's pretty close here.

679
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 5: It's two two, by the way, on the score line,

680
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 5: I should have mentioned that off the top Arsenal plus

681
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 5: one eighty on the road draw up plus two seventy

682
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 5: five to advance.

683
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: Flip a coin.

684
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 5: Basically between these two, it's essentially a pick them as

685
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:33,959
Speaker 5: close as you can get to a pick them when

686
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 5: you're getting to this stage of the Champions League. Byron

687
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 5: is a nominal favorite at minus one twenty five.

688
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 2: I like Arsenal here, I do too.

689
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 5: It's another situation where I think you can bet them anyway.

690
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 5: You want three way line to advance, go back to

691
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 5: Anthony Special and bet them to win the tournament.

692
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: Again. I think, however you want to do it, you

693
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: can bet them here.

694
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 5: And I know that sounds like a bad time to

695
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 5: get involved, because they've just they've they've had a couple

696
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 5: of wobbles to two matches in a row. But I

697
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 5: think that's why I like it, because I think that

698
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 5: there's some skepticism in the market on fine Arsenal for

699
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 5: the first.

700
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 2: Time in weeks. So we'll save you for the.

701
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 5: End here, BJ Anthony, are you now you're you're off

702
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 5: the bandwagon, You're done, You're you're cashing out your Arsenal futures.

703
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 4: No, no, no, Look, I've I've always back to Arsenal

704
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 4: in this tournament. I've always felt good about them.

705
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 3: BJ scagging as I say that.

706
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: You know they're they're still an elite defensive team. You

707
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 4: know they gave up to Lake Owls today. Sure, my,

708
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 4: you know I say this every week. My questions about

709
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 4: Arsenal have never been the defense, and they still aren't.

710
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 4: I think Byron did some really interesting things in the

711
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 4: first leg. They got sone to cook Kiwi or a

712
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 4: couple of times they really found success. Uh It transitions

713
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 4: that we hadn't really seen a lot of teams do

714
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 4: against Arsenal, which was concerning on one hand, but also

715
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 4: like even the first goal felt like Arsenal just kind

716
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 4: of gave the ball away high on like a random

717
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 4: bad pass that probably doesn't happen again.

718
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: But I also don't think Arsenal created a ton of

719
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: chances in the second half.

720
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 4: I thought the second half, when they were down a

721
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 4: goal and Byron sat off a little more, there wasn't

722
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 4: a lot of chance creation.

723
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 3: So the interesting thing is.

724
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 4: Who has more of the ball in this game, because

725
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 4: we've seen Arsenal be good in the kind of the

726
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: city role where the city match role where they say,

727
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 4: all right, you have the ball, will wait for our

728
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 4: transition moments. We don't really have a striker anyway, so

729
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 4: we'd kind of rather play that style where we get

730
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 4: to play on the break and we have good passers

731
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 4: and we have.

732
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 3: Good runners in behind.

733
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 4: Just Arsenal give possession to Buyern and say, hey, when

734
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 4: you lose the ball, we know we can hit you.

735
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 4: That's where we're gonna win this game. I think that

736
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 4: might be the best way for Arsenal to go about this,

737
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 4: because I think if Arsenal goes to Byron on the

738
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 4: road and tries to replicate last week and then just say,

739
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 4: hopefully we don't screw up a couple times and give

740
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 4: them golden opportunities at our goal on the road at

741
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 4: Byron in this Champions League setting, that feels like we're

742
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 4: sitting here on Saturday saying our next episode, saying Arsenal

743
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 4: choked again. They made those two bad passes, Byron capitalized.

744
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 4: Byron had the experience, they had the you know, the

745
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 4: guts to pull out this close tie, and so I.

746
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 3: Think it's very interesting. I'm like, who has the ball now?

747
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 4: As you anybody who listened to the show, note, we

748
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 4: are very leveraged on Arsenal. I am not adding more

749
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 4: to my position. I'm very comfortable. You know, we had

750
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 4: such a good bet pre flop here that even after

751
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 4: a home draw we're still sitting with basically the same

752
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 4: bet on Arsenal to advance minus one fifteen. They're like

753
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 4: minus one o five now because that market moves so

754
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 4: far towards Arsenal Byron having sign A, Like I didn't

755
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 4: think they'd have him for the first leg, so them

756
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 4: having him was a huge difference. But even still, Arsenal

757
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 4: for most of that match with the better team, and

758
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 4: I think they're still the better team, and I think

759
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 4: the market's probably about right but I still tilt towards

760
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 4: Arsenal because I trust their defense way more.

761
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 3: So that's where I feel about this. I'm not anymore

762
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 3: to it though. We ride.

763
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 4: Please bring us homegunners, because our other tickets are looking

764
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 4: a decent right now.

765
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'll tell you this. It wasn't the greatest

766
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 1: offensive portance for Arsenal in that first leg, but nope,

767
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: they did an outstanding job of controlling the match. You know,

768
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 1: if you look at the stats from it, Arsenal had

769
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: a seventy three percent field till it. They doubled the

770
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: amount of final third touches as Byron did, and like

771
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: Anthony said, what really happened was Byron just capitalized on

772
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 1: the few transition moments they got where Arsenal made mistakes,

773
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: which has been uncharacteristic of Arsenal this season and even

774
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: again today against aston Villa a couple Basically, aston Villa

775
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: did nothing the entire first half and it was just

776
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: one mistake where Gabrielle passed it off his own guy

777
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: and Oli Watkins got a shot that went off the post.

778
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 1: But like other than that, they didn't do anything, and

779
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 1: that's what kind of lands me on this line where

780
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 1: It's like, yes, I know Byron has home field advantage,

781
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 1: but we're kind of rating these teams like they're similar,

782
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 1: which I don't think is true. I think Byron is

783
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: a significantly worse defensive team. Uh. And there's something else

784
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 1: happening with Byron. You know, Tuchel has frozen out Open

785
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: mcconno and kim Minjay and he's gone with an Eric

786
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 1: Dyer Delict center back pairing basically since around the beginning

787
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 1: of February, which if you know anything about Delict and Higher,

788
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: they are mistake prone center backs, especially in possession. And

789
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: since those two have been the center back pairing, Byron

790
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 1: is allowing one point two six spectacles per ninety minutes.

791
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: Before that time, before they were you know, when it

792
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 1: was kim Minjay and Ooper mccanno, they were only allowing

793
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: point eight three. So that's a pretty significant difference in

794
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: terms of just the center back pairing right there. So

795
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,360
Speaker 1: to Anthony's point, like Arsenal, yes, could definitely go to

796
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: the Island's arena and they could sit they could just

797
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: sit off because Arsenal is a elite, whether it be

798
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: a rest defense or in that transition type mode. And

799
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 1: what Arsenal does just so well and so much better

800
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: than everybody else in terms of defensively. Is once they

801
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: lose the ball, they get back and they get numbers

802
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: behind the ball and they make it very, very difficult

803
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: for you to break in transition. So if Byron is

804
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: going to go here with the game plan of like, okay,

805
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 1: you know what that kind of worked in the first leg,

806
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: Like let's give Arsenal a ball and let's try to

807
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 1: break against them. Relying on just a few transition opportunities

808
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: against the defense as good as Arsenal's is not something

809
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 1: that's sustainable. It can you can win with it, Like

810
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: it could definitely pick them off a couple times and

811
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 1: we could be sitting here being like man, just like

812
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: what happened in the first leg. But I think another

813
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: point is pretty substantial in this second leg is that

814
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: Alfonso Davies is suspended and he did a really good

815
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: job against Sokka in one v one situations in that

816
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 1: first leg, and now it's probably gonna be Rafael Guerrero,

817
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: who's a wonderful progressive left back and great at creating chances,

818
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 1: but he's not good in this role of like, let's

819
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: just sit in a defensive block. Let's defend for the entire match.

820
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: So and even the first goal that Socca had, it

821
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 1: came off of Arsenal getting an overload in the wide

822
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: area and it freed up Socca and he made his

823
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 1: nice little cut and he scored. So if Daviess is

824
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: not going to be there and Arsenal is going to

825
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 1: continue to get those overloads like that is a path

826
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 1: where Arsenal can score. And you know, I think Arsenal

827
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: definitely has to start martinelling left. I don't think starting

828
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: trouss Artist is the right move here. They got to

829
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: start Keywar again. I know that he got cooked a

830
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 1: couple of times, but Sinchenko is a horrible replacement in

831
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: that terms from what I've seen the last few matches

832
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: with Sinchinko in there. So I would prefer Arsenal just

833
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: go back to their big game lineup, which is Perverts

834
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 1: up top, Martinelli, Soka, four center backs across the back line.

835
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 1: And I think Arsenal has a great path whether they

836
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: want to control this match or they want to give

837
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 1: Byron possession. I think that they can control this match

838
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 1: either in possession or have possession. And I think they're

839
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 1: a superior team to Byron, so I like them to advance.

840
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: You've already have an Arsenal to advance ticket just right.

841
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: It Like I'm not doubling down here, But if there's

842
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 1: somebody who's coming in here who didn't bet that Arsenal's

843
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 1: even money to advance, and I think that they should

844
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: be closer around to minus one fifteen minus one twenty.

845
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 3: Should be a fun one.

846
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 4: It's the one that I'm most excited for because I

847
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 4: really am most uncertain of how it how it will look.

848
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 4: You know, I kind of have a feeling on the

849
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 4: other like we can kind of generally think the other

850
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 4: three will play out, but this one, I think the

851
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 4: Arsenal has two very different ways of going to Munich

852
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 4: and which one will tell us a lot about our

853
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,479
Speaker 4: TEDI even I think, you know, it's the biggest match

854
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 4: of his career at this point in Arsenal. Because a

855
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 4: loss here and like they.

856
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 5: Don't with the failure litigative failure.

857
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: I'm not I'm I hate failure.

858
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 4: I hate rings culture, I hate trophy culture. I think

859
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 4: it's like really lame. Arsenal had an incredible season regardless

860
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 4: of how this the next five weeks ago, but I'm

861
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 4: not the majority of people.

862
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 3: So there's gonna be a lot said.

863
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 4: If they don't win the league, which they're probably not

864
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,479
Speaker 4: going to, and if they don't win the Champions League,

865
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 4: which they're probably not going to, even though I think

866
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 4: they will, that there's gonna be a lot of discussion,

867
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 4: especially if they lose it as Byron team again, a

868
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 4: Byron team that gets passed regularly in Germany and has

869
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 4: almost fired their manager three times in the last two

870
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 4: months and is already I mean he's essentially coaching fired,

871
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 4: so losing to him would almost be as bad as

872
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,720
Speaker 4: when Tottenham lost to the manager who was in jail. Okay,

873
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 4: forget as long as I'm a soccer fan, you know

874
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 4: that story, b.

875
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 1: Ja I do.

876
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 3: I think I told you a pre podcast.

877
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 2: Wasn't it?

878
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think it was pre podcast.

879
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 4: It was a spring of twenty twenty one. They had

880
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 4: a Europa League tie. I forget who they played, but

881
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 4: it was one of the European It was Dina Mazagra.

882
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 4: The coach got arrested for fraud and the team won

883
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 4: the match against Tottenham.

884
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 3: Like two days later.

885
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:51,879
Speaker 1: That was that.

886
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 4: That is the ultimate interim manager bounce the coach got arrested.

887
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 3: You got to rally around him. Beat Tottenham.

888
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 4: It was Marinho's Tottenham too, if I call correctly, so

889
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 4: that made it even funny.

890
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: By the way, I don't know if you guys saw

891
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: the report. Maurinho could be coming back to the Premier

892
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: League and in London even west Ham. Yeah, perfect, perfect

893
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: for them, That is diabolically good.

894
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 2: That'd be right quickly.

895
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 5: Let's just wrap up anything on the Europa League for

896
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 5: you BJ.

897
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, Roma ac Milan under two and a half. It's

898
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,760
Speaker 1: around minus one o five right now. You know Roma.

899
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: Obviously Mourinho's gone, but there's still some semblances of him

900
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: and the squad and how they play like they're not

901
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,399
Speaker 1: this new age. Let's build out of the back, let's

902
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: press high type of team like they're still going to

903
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: come here in this second leg and play a lower

904
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: defensive block, which is what they did after going up

905
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: early against AC Milan. They essentially just they scored, parked

906
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: the bus and just absorbed a ton of shots. I mean,

907
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 1: Acy Milan had twenty five shots but only created one

908
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: point six expected goals. It was incredibly in a efficient

909
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: there were not really any big chances they created, So

910
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see Roma have the exact same

911
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 1: game plan here being at home and just trying to

912
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: see this one out. So and even you know, the

913
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: Roman matches under de ROSSI have been chaotic to start out,

914
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 1: but they were the matches were vastly outperforming all the

915
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: expected goals that were created, and now you're seeing kind

916
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: of a turn more towards what it should have been.

917
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 1: So I think this total is still a little high.

918
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: Projected around one point nine goals for this match, so

919
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: un or two and half goals minus one.

920
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 5: Five anything for you, Anthony.

921
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know how west Ham defends Leverkusen, but.

922
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: What Leverkusen could be drunk?

923
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 4: They could That's the championship hangover is real. They're holding

924
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 4: a two goal lead, They're going on the road. West

925
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 4: Ham is going to have to open up and they're

926
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 4: not even a good defense when they sit in their

927
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 4: low block. They're even worse when they've opened up. This year,

928
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: Leverkusen has bony face back. Now they have a system

929
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 4: that is well designed to wreck tomes. In transition, I'm

930
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 4: gonna be looking at some levercous and like upset alts

931
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 4: in some way shape or for me, because I really

932
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 4: don't see a path for west Ham getting back into

933
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 4: this even at home without some voodoo magic the dream

934
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 4: spot Leeboff I mentioned it last week on the show.

935
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 4: I said I would love to bet at Alanto plus

936
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 4: three quarters at home against Liverpool, which I think is

937
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 4: what the line is going to be. Well, sure enough

938
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 4: Liverpool's laying three quarters of a goal, but I did

939
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 4: not expect a three goal aggregate lead going back.

940
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 3: To uh Bergamo, So I'm not going to bet it.

941
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 3: I'm going to say that we're going to pass and uh.

942
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 2: For Sandfield.

943
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: Did the first it doesn't count.

944
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 5: It's only there there there are stipulations, jipulations.

945
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 4: Also, Palace doesn't count because the notorious notorious upisode police

946
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 4: say and as they played, so it wasn't.

947
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 1: Really it was basically right.

948
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 4: It's not fair place when they have as A and

949
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 4: Elisa are basically twenty eleven barsa so it doesn't really

950
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 4: that's really.

951
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 2: All right.

952
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 4: I do like lel If you're not invested in the future,

953
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 4: I think their lives to turn that around. Against Villa,

954
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 4: they were the better team in the first leg in

955
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 4: the conference League out created them. Field tit was pretty

956
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 4: pretty even. Now they come home, they're like laying a

957
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 4: little more than even money, Like it's not quite a

958
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 4: pick them, but it's not quite a quarter goal. It's

959
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 4: between the two. I think Leal's going to turn this time.

960
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 4: I think Villa just I mean Villa just got a

961
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 4: huge win themselves, you know, upset against Arsenal. Now they

962
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 4: go to France and I think Leal, like I said

963
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 4: the same thing before the first leg, Leil has the

964
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 4: possession and they have the pacing behind to give problems

965
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 4: to Villa. So I think there are plenty of lives

966
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 4: to turn this around, if you want to add more,

967
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 4: if you're if you're not invested, or if you are. Honestly,

968
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: I'm fine with it too. I think Leo's gonna turn

969
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 4: this and I think we're not too far from from

970
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 4: the three tickets in the semis, so I'm starting to

971
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 4: get a little excited, although I know one of them

972
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 4: is going down this week, so hopefully out of Lonto

973
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 4: and Leo can come through.

974
00:45:58,360 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: And to echo that, I like the over in that

975
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 1: as well, which is over two and a half at

976
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: about minus one twenty five.

977
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 4: I'm excited to see what Liverpool looks like Thursday. This

978
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 4: it's a really weird spot because they're not out of

979
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 4: the title race.

980
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 3: They're only two points back.

981
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 1: And what's the what's the excuse Michael when Liverpool loses

982
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: again from Klopp?

983
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 3: They didn't have any There are no excuses this week.

984
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 1: I know, he said, Well he told to me basically like,

985
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: don't talk to me. I need to digest this after.

986
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I need to figure out what to blame.

987
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 4: Was legitimately shocking defense today. I mean, how many times

988
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 4: are you going to be a point blank range and

989
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 4: kick the ball right at the goalie that would or

990
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 4: miss or hit the post.

991
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 3: I mean that was shocking from Liverpool.

992
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, well at Alanta they went they went straight

993
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 1: manned man.

994
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 3: Everywhere, man man up and they beat them.

995
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 1: It was crazy.

996
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 3: Yeah.

997
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 4: Van Dyke even commented on how it was a system

998
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 4: they weren't, you know, they were.

999
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: Rarely do that nowadays teams don't really go mando man

1000
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 1: like all over. There's usually some type of hybrid system

1001
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 1: and Alta just said, no, we're going straight man to

1002
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 1: man against Liverpool.

1003
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 3: And teams don't ever do that against They.

1004
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 1: Don't because at the Lowtontown Man City FA Cup match

1005
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: Lutontown tried to go Manda Mann and they just Holland

1006
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 1: had five goals in under an hour. Like that's what

1007
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: happens when you try to go Manda Man against really

1008
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,720
Speaker 1: good attacking teams. But credit to at Alonto.

1009
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 3: Jean Pierro Gasparini.

1010
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 1: Shann Kaine.

1011
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 6: Look out for that name because he he's put a

1012
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 6: couple put up a couple of great defensive performances against

1013
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 6: Osaman who they played, Napoli, now against Liverpool and Nunez

1014
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 6: like he plays for sign that Sweden's.

1015
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: Not in the Euros unfortunately, so but yeah, look out

1016
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 1: for him. He might be next fifty million dollar center back.

1017
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 2: Oh right, that'll do it. Uh.

1018
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 5: For this Champions League preview, we will be back, of

1019
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 5: course uh in your feed on Thursday morning to look

1020
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 5: ahead to the upcoming Premier League schedule. But until then,

1021
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 5: thank you for listening. Thank you to anyone who's rated, reviewed.

1022
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 2: It, subscribe to the podcast.

1023
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 5: Thank you to our producer Noah, and of course to

1024
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 5: our sponsor's vettery six.

1025
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 4: Five Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1026
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 4: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1027
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1028
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