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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunt.

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Speaker 2: Hello, so I am in Hello chat. How are we doing? Brother?

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Speaker 1: I'm ready, I'm ready. I think there are some really ugly,

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Speaker 1: ugly games. I don't know about you. You said on

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Speaker 1: Tuesday you were feeling good about this week. It took

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Speaker 1: me until about two pm yesterday to find real clarity

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Speaker 1: and start to get comfortable with some of these games

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Speaker 1: because they are so ugly. We had a long chat

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Speaker 1: about the chip Is Big Favorites over the Panthers this week,

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Speaker 1: and I just wanted to put some stuff in context.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk more about that game.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned that double digit Phaves are five to oh

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Speaker 1: this season against the spread. Evan confirmed that in his

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Speaker 1: excellent Excellent Trends piece this week. Double digit Phase five

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Speaker 1: to oh this year the first time they have been undefeated,

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Speaker 1: not just against the spread, undefeated as winners this late

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Speaker 1: in the year. In twenty seasons and only the second

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Speaker 1: time in the past forty seasons. But if you want

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Speaker 1: to know how extraordinary it is that the double digit

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Speaker 1: favorites are undefeated against the spread, you have to go

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Speaker 1: back to nineteen fifty. That is the last time double

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Speaker 1: digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through Week eleven.

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Speaker 1: If you need some context for this, I thought you'd

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Speaker 1: appreciate this as a professional better and a connoisseur of

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Speaker 1: history all things betting. In nineteen fifty, Simon, the points

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Speaker 1: spread was less than a decade old.

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Speaker 3: It was invented in the early.

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Speaker 1: Nineteen forties via math genius and trader in Chicago named

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Speaker 1: Charles McNeil. Because all the stuff that makes people happiest

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Speaker 1: comes from Chicago, Deep dish pizza, Chicago style hot dogs,

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Speaker 1: and the points spread.

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Speaker 3: That's the list.

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Speaker 2: I thought you're gonna do the Darren revl and be

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Speaker 2: like the number one movie and the number one song

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Speaker 2: played when this happened.

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week twelve Best Bets episode. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I are going to narrow down are five picks

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Speaker 1: in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them Contest presented by Bet three six five. Go ahead,

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Speaker 1: sign up now you can still win the weekly prize

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Speaker 1: as Favorites that Action Network dot Com.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna get to the foxhole.

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Speaker 1: We're going to give out our Tommy John big Ball's

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Speaker 1: bet of the Week which won last week.

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Speaker 3: By the way.

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Speaker 1: We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets or boosted money line,

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Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Ron Robin, and so much more, bets,

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Speaker 1: rolling in lines or moving decisions need to be made.

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Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard.

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Speaker 3: Likes to say there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

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Speaker 1: futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as

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Speaker 1: always Thursdays in the season. We're gonna hear how the

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Speaker 1: wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversations. We are

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Speaker 1: moving lines, my good friend Simon Hunter, that's why they

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Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on our decisions. So Simon,

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Speaker 1: let's get to it.

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Speaker 3: Chuck calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 3: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start with a Thursday night. As fans of

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Speaker 2: this show, no, we were felt like we had to

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Speaker 2: take the browns and we kind of felt like we

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Speaker 2: were following the professionals here. Nothing's changed, right, It's been

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Speaker 2: really professional heavy pros verse shows. It's really heavy for

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Speaker 2: the public on the Pittsburgh side. Professionals have come in.

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Speaker 2: Even when this number is ticked up, the plus four

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Speaker 2: you've seen to come crashing right back down at plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half. So the books, the professionals, they've

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Speaker 2: kind of draw a line the sand here, and they

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Speaker 2: do think this is an upset. And then Evan's article

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Speaker 2: came out and you saw what I saw chat all

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Speaker 2: that info about Tomlin on these Thursday night games against

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Speaker 2: divisional opponents, So I didn't really understand where they're coming from.

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Speaker 2: Now starts to make sense. Then you add in that

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Speaker 2: we have some bad weather coming in. So yeah, this

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Speaker 2: went from being everyone thinking it's gonna be a boring

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh blowing this team out kind of game to is

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Speaker 2: Cleveland had actually a shot to win this game out right,

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Speaker 2: So that's a really fun game. Let's get into the

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Speaker 2: big dogs. Professionals, they love the Colts this week, they

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Speaker 2: love the Panthers, and a couple of guys shockingly like

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Speaker 2: the Titans. Now, the Titans is the smallest one, I

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Speaker 2: would say the other ones. Guys are bet more confident.

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Speaker 2: Guys are kind of playing playing this Titan spot because

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Speaker 2: of the number and the fact that this team is

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Speaker 2: one to nine against the spread. Right, Like, eventually the

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Speaker 2: book is going to catch up to a give you

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Speaker 2: extra points. Sam goes to that Houston team, right, if

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Speaker 2: the that's the view of it. CJ is a different

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Speaker 2: guy as a big favorite. We've seen him be you know,

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Speaker 2: so much better and consistent as an underdog. So that's

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Speaker 2: Those are a couple of interesting games that we're gonna

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Speaker 2: dive into. Uh for games we love the pros love

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Speaker 2: with us rams. That's one. Will spend a bunch of

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Speaker 2: time on Chargers. Not that shocking. Uh, they love your

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Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals pick. We've seen that number flip flopping, right,

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Speaker 2: We've seen that get up. They've got up to one

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Speaker 2: minus one and a half of a couple of books Arizona,

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Speaker 2: so that that line's been moving like crazy. Now this

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Speaker 2: is a game. Mean, you really haven't touched on Denver.

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Speaker 2: Like I've talked to a lot of really sharp groups

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Speaker 2: that love this Denver number, and they've taken this number

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Speaker 2: from hoping of three all the way up to six

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Speaker 2: and now chat. So that's a game that like, if

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Speaker 2: we're going to force in a favorite, maybe I could

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Speaker 2: convince you on that Denver team because it's a good

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Speaker 2: matchup for them defensively, offensively. I get where they're coming from,

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Speaker 2: and I agree that at five and a half, if

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Speaker 2: you can still get in contest or in your pickpool.

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Speaker 2: I take that value. That's a really good number on

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Speaker 2: that Denver team, and then a game that means you

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Speaker 2: spend a little time on that much though was the

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers green Bay. Our whole issue was, Okay,

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Speaker 2: brock Pertty is missing practices. This is a big deal

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Speaker 2: that that to me would make me want to take

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Speaker 2: Green Bay if they're obviously gonna play back up pretty practice,

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Speaker 2: no problem. Yesterday Apparently Sam goes with Kittle, who we

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Speaker 2: talked about how important he is to that offense. So

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Speaker 2: we've seen the money come in now on that fort

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Speaker 2: nine ers team. Now it's down to one and a half.

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Speaker 2: So you know, a couple of guys I talked to

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Speaker 2: that are pretty smart, they're ahead of it. They got

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Speaker 2: to two and a half. I was gonna be on

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Speaker 2: the other side, but Chad knows on something that I

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Speaker 2: wanted to be on the forty nine ers, So I'm

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Speaker 2: happy to come back on this fort Niners teams. That's

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Speaker 2: a position I wanted to be on. It was all

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Speaker 2: about if Perdy was gonna play. He seems like he's

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Speaker 2: good to go. This seems like a really nice spot

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Speaker 2: to back this fort nine ers team. So yeah, the professionals, Chad,

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Speaker 2: they're beting big on the dogs this week, and I

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Speaker 2: think this is kind of the spot. Either the public's

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Speaker 2: gonna be I have a ton of money in their

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Speaker 2: pocket head into Thanksgiving, or they're gonna be chasing pretty

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Speaker 2: hard come that Thanksgiving three day games Slate.

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Speaker 1: Look, I'm glad to hear all this because obviously I'm

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Speaker 1: having different conversations than you, and a lot of my

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Speaker 1: work between Tuesday and Thursday is hungry down researching, looking

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Speaker 1: at advanced analytics. See that if I can find an

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Speaker 1: edge across any of the things that we look at,

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Speaker 1: from success rate to EPA, et cetera. And I was

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Speaker 1: starting to feel so much better about some of these teams.

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Speaker 1: The Niners are an interesting one, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: sort of a tipping point game for us.

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Speaker 3: I'm excited to get to that. We're going to dig

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Speaker 3: into all of it before we do.

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Speaker 1: Reminder, our latest free Free Favorites podcast Watch Party is

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Speaker 1: happening in a few weeks December twelfth. That is a Thursday,

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Speaker 1: December twelfth, in Simon Hunter's hometown of Philadelphia, right there

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Speaker 1: in Center City, Folks. We're going to the Wicked Wolf.

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Speaker 1: I heard it's a banging spot. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: have said to me, oh, I love that play. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna have free drinks. It's gonna be a live Q

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Speaker 1: and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna

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Speaker 1: be there too. We're all gonna hang out. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: sweat and bet and enjoy the Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: I wonder what Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna go into tag mode. We will not go gently.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna unleash hell here in December because we have to,

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Speaker 2: because that's what's required.

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Speaker 1: You've must RSVP space will be limited to RSVP. Check

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Speaker 1: out the link in the podcast description page or the

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Speaker 1: YouTube episode description. Simon and I will tweet it out

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Speaker 1: as well. RSVPs are coming in. Do not delay. I've

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Speaker 1: gotten a lot of requests from people to start putting

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Speaker 1: more stuff on threads. I joined threads last night. Milman

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Speaker 1: C go ahead and follow me. I posted a link

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Speaker 1: to the rs VP in my threads feed.

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Speaker 3: I'll do I'll do the episode. I'll do the rs

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Speaker 3: VP there as well.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 3: I'm not abandoning X.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying I'm adding threads, getting a lot of

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Speaker 1: requests for threads content, so we're going to put it

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Speaker 1: all in there again. RSVP joined me, Simon Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 2: Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be

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Speaker 2: all in.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get rolling, Simon. Right now, we're starting

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Speaker 1: with Kansas City at Carolina. We have assiduously That's right.

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Speaker 1: I said it assiduously, big word. Avoided the Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 1: since they basically turned our podcast audience against us after

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Speaker 1: about three weeks. We have avoided them all season long.

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Speaker 1: They are eleven point underdogs. I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: go higher. I wanted to put this on the list

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Speaker 1: just so we could officially dismiss it and so I

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Speaker 1: can refer to Evan's double digit stats off the top.

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Speaker 3: I think it's time to fade those stats. And I'm

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Speaker 3: not afraid of the Panthers here.

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Speaker 2: It's fair and I don't want to move on too quick.

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Speaker 2: Did you say banging? Is that in your vocabulary? You

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Speaker 2: said that they had banging food at the bar we're

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Speaker 2: going to.

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Speaker 3: I said, it's a banging spot.

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Speaker 2: I don't even know what just happened. I can't believe

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Speaker 2: that's that's part of your nineties lingo. I love it.

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Speaker 3: Check dude, do you know how I am so hip banging?

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Speaker 3: I'm banging?

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Speaker 2: I just let you just said it. It just kept moving.

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Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, I can't let this

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Speaker 2: keep going. Yeah, Panthers are banging this week? How do we?

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Speaker 1: I don't know how you see me, but the way

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Speaker 1: I see myself very hip to the trance.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about that.

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Speaker 3: I only had to look.

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Speaker 1: Up pink tote lid moment once today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this Panthers team, it's it's what you're just talking about.

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Speaker 2: We're just playing the number, right, trying not to overthink it.

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Speaker 2: I talked about I have this at eight eight and

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Speaker 2: a half. We're getting a ton of value here. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't feel good, Chad. I think you're in the same

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Speaker 2: boat as me where it's like it's I think we

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Speaker 2: have PtD from betting this Carolina team. But it's really

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Speaker 2: all about playing this number. We've seen it before with Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: The public drives these numbers up. And that's why he

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Speaker 2: is three and one as a ten point favorite of

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Speaker 2: More And it's because the public drives the number up.

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Speaker 2: The books have no issue pushing it to its limit

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Speaker 2: because they know that this is going to be the

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Speaker 2: number one t's game, on the number one money line

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Speaker 2: parlay game, all of that. So you're right, I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to think it will take the value at ten and

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Speaker 2: a half, I was already committed. Now it's up to eleven. Again,

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Speaker 2: eleven and a half. How do we not take that chat?

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Speaker 2: So to me, it's really about the number, the matchup

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Speaker 2: to this Panthers team. You know, as bad as they've been,

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Speaker 2: we've seen these last couple of weeks that Bryce Shunk's

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Speaker 2: found a little bit of confidence and he's pushing the

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Speaker 2: ball downfield, and that you know, as great as this

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Speaker 2: Kansas City team is going to is against the run,

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Speaker 2: we know that the Panthers they'll find a way to

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Speaker 2: run the ball. That's just what they've done all season.

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Speaker 2: So I was hoping we would avoid this one, But

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Speaker 2: now that we sit here on Thursday, it feels like

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our five. It's just

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Speaker 2: too good of a number, too good of a spot

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Speaker 2: to pass on this Panthers team.

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Speaker 3: Well, here's our challenge. And by the way, we're in

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Speaker 3: the foxhole.

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Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a

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Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

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Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

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Speaker 1: And we're not in the foxhole against the professional betters here.

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Speaker 1: We're in the foxhole against our listeners. I hate to

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Speaker 1: say it, so we are because I can feel the revolt.

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Speaker 1: I can feel my threads feed just blowing up with

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Speaker 1: feedback about the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, this is this is just how.

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Speaker 1: We play the game. And look, there's three fewer games

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Speaker 1: this week, right, so there's not as many options, and

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Speaker 1: all of these games, like there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: ugly dogs, and there aren't the obvious favorite spots like

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Speaker 1: we've had in the past. The numbers say you got

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Speaker 1: to take the Panthers here. So if we're gonna play,

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Speaker 1: let's play like we're supposed to. We're taking the Panther.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be in the contest. I

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Speaker 1: hate doing it to people, But if you want to

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Speaker 1: be with us, if you want to jump in the

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Speaker 1: foxhole with me and Simon, look we're gonna buy you

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Speaker 1: free drinks in Philly.

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Speaker 3: So if it doesn't work out, at least you're.

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Speaker 1: Getting that from US Minnesota at Chicago Bears are three

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Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. This has been a weird game,

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Speaker 1: Like it says play the home dog with a defense

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Speaker 1: whose strengths match up to the fading QB's weaknesses. The

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Speaker 1: trends say fade the road favorite with a win percentage

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent or more. It's forty three percent.

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Speaker 3: The past decade.

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Speaker 1: I just can't get there, Like I think, I think

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams going against Brian Flores for the first time

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Speaker 1: is a real X factor here that is not being

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Speaker 1: considered in all sort of bet the number blind metrics

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Speaker 1: that we see. And I know Sam Donald is fading.

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Speaker 1: Like I'm not a fan of Sam Donald. We've been

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Speaker 1: looking for ways to fade him the last few weeks.

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Speaker 1: But I got huge, huge concerns and numbers to back

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Speaker 1: it up with Brian Floores against Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the coward, right. I mean, I'm still

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Speaker 2: taking the plus three and a half, but I definitely

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Speaker 2: feel more confident taken on the under in this game,

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Speaker 2: Like I'd rather take that than you can take this number,

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Speaker 2: especially because we talked about this is this numbers moved

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Speaker 2: a ton at four and a half. I honestly would

300
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Speaker 2: feel pretty good taking this number, just because I do

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Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a low scoring, really close game.

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Speaker 2: And as much you want to knock this Barry's team,

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Speaker 2: with Kayleb Williams all of his games, for the most part,

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Speaker 2: he plays pretty close. Like it feels like they're always

305
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Speaker 2: in these games, and they're in these tight games. And

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Speaker 2: you know, as as much you want to bash this

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Speaker 2: Bary's team, it's the defense that's kept them in a

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Speaker 2: lot of these games as well, Like they've kept them

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Speaker 2: in a really close matchup. So I like both defenses

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Speaker 2: in this game, like both them matchup well. For the

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Speaker 2: offense on the other side, your hesitation is warranted, Like

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Speaker 2: we know the deal. You guys can't block anyone of

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Speaker 2: the Bears, and now you have a team that can

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Speaker 2: just throw a ton of different looks and blitz back.

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Speaker 2: It's not ideal for Kayleb Williams. So I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: I coming into this week, I really was loving this spot.

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Speaker 2: Now is week going along, It's like I still like it.

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Speaker 2: I just prefer the under more. So I'm happy to

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Speaker 2: passing this one. I'm making one of our five.

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Speaker 1: You know what's interesting and I'm glad to hear you

321
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Speaker 1: sort of found a different perspective. I was afraid you

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Speaker 1: were going to try to bully me into taking the Bears,

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Speaker 1: and I just didn't get the love. I got the

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Speaker 1: love for the Bears at five and four and a half,

325
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Speaker 1: but still hearing about it at three and a half

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Speaker 1: is confusing to me. We got a one game sample

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Speaker 1: size of the Bears, you know, with a new offensive

328
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Speaker 1: coordinator and trying to be a little more vertical, and

329
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Speaker 1: most importantly, Caleb getting rid of the ball and two seconds,

330
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Speaker 1: you know, two and a half seconds instead of holding

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Speaker 1: onto it forever.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 1: The Packers are just not the same defense as the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: And here's a stat I stole from Evan and his

335
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Speaker 1: excellent piece about the trends and betting this week. When

336
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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams faces defense with the sack percentage of two

337
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Speaker 1: percent or higher, and that's basically when the opponent's percentage

338
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Speaker 1: of plays that end as a sack while on defense,

339
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Speaker 1: that's how you calculate sack percentage. He's one and six

340
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Speaker 1: straight up, scoring less than twenty points in six of

341
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Speaker 1: the seven games. The Viking sacks percentage sacks sack percentage

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Speaker 1: five and a half percent. Like, I just feel like

343
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Speaker 1: they're going to do so many things that confuse him,

344
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Speaker 1: to fuddle him, make him hold the ball. They'll drop

345
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Speaker 1: back into coverage and still get pressure. I don't like it.

346
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Speaker 1: I don't like it a little bit. I want you

347
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Speaker 1: to talk me off a game New England at Miami.

348
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Speaker 1: Sharp money has moved this from seven and a half

349
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Speaker 1: to seven, so you've lost the hook. But this feels

350
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 1: like a classic eye test versus in numbers game to me. Like,

351
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 1: we watch a lot of Patriots games because we're either

352
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Speaker 1: betting on them or betting against them the past few weeks,

353
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Speaker 1: and we've watched the past couple of games with Tua

354
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Speaker 1: and the Dolphins, And when I look at these games

355
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Speaker 1: with two especially, I think the Rams beat themselves against Tua.

356
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 1: The Raiders game, this was a five point game with

357
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 1: three and a half minutes left, okay, and the Raiders

358
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:26,920
Speaker 1: were a defensive pass interference away from getting the ball

359
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 1: back and having a chance to win that game. They

360
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 1: get a bad call, the game sort of gets blown

361
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: open with a couple of freakish plays, but they were

362
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 1: five points out of that game with three and a

363
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: half minutes left, and I think the Pats are gamers.

364
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 1: I think Drake May is a gamer. I think their

365
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 1: biggest detriment is they have a coach who's just way

366
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 1: too conservative and like puts them in bad spots where

367
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 1: you don't get the opportunity to cover as much. But

368
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Pats.

369
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another game that we're basically just trusting the number.

370
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 2: You know. I haven't put a penny or anything on

371
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 2: this money line of this Patriots team. I thought by

372
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 2: this point I would just because he just nailed it. Like,

373
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 2: I don't really trust Miami team, but I really think

374
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 2: about it, this Miami team is gonna be able to

375
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 2: score points in this Patriots defense, especially at home and

376
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 2: that kind of spot that just we've seen two. He's

377
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 2: a different player at home and especially against Yeah, but

378
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 2: it's all about the number. Brother. If it was seven

379
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 2: and a half, I'd be more confident putting this in

380
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 2: the contest. I look where he came on. It was

381
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 2: six and a half. So it's all exactly. There's no

382
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 2: point if you can waste our time because we're not

383
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 2: gonna take it. So if you want to bet it

384
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 2: with us, it's not one of my five or six

385
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 2: bigger bets. But it's really it's really about the number,

386
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 2: like seven and a half Drake made against this Miami team.

387
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 2: I feel like me and you have an opportunity for

388
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 2: a back door at six and a half. Obviously there's

389
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:50,680
Speaker 2: no value there. I just I don't want to force

390
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 2: that number in those So you know, we just talked

391
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 2: about an ugly dog. I'd rather have been there, Carolina,

392
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,479
Speaker 2: because it's still a better number than this is. So

393
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 2: that's what it's gonna come down to. People are gonna

394
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:01,679
Speaker 2: be why don't you guys end up having this one?

395
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 2: It's just a bad number. So I'm with you. I

396
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: like this number, like the spot Drake May. We've seen

397
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 2: him be a difference maker for that offense, right. I

398
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 2: don't know if it was you or someone else talked about,

399
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 2: but like you know, they have one of the worst

400
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 2: pass pass blocking offenses in all football, the Patriots. That's

401
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,120
Speaker 2: been good for Drake because it makes him get outside

402
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 2: the pocket. We've seen him really excel when either runs

403
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: a ball or pushes the ball downfield like that seems

404
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 2: to be what he's so great at is getting out

405
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: and making the defense kind of move around unorthodox and

406
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: throw the ball downfield. So you know me and you

407
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 2: aren't scared of this Miami defense in any way. We

408
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 2: know they have a couple of guys who can rush

409
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: the passer, but overall they're just not that very good

410
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 2: of a defense. So it's seven and a half too

411
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 2: many points. I would still take that number if you

412
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: can find it.

413
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 3: What do you mean? You don't know if it was

414
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: me or somebody else? Who else are you listening to?

415
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 3: Why would it like? What would not be me?

416
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 2: Because I talked to like hundreds of people every week.

417
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if it was you that said that's

418
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 2: that thing or someone else. It all melts together, Simon.

419
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: I don't forget anything you say to me. I catalog it,

420
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 1: I make a note, I put it in the script.

421
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: I remember almost every encounter because they're all that special.

422
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 1: And I feel like you're discounting what I'm saying in

423
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: our relationship.

424
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: So that does that mean you did say it?

425
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 3: It's possible.

426
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 1: Listen, I'm so old that you're surprised when I'm using

427
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 1: the word banging. How can I remember what I'm saying

428
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: about Drake May on a Tuesday? Yeah, Drake May is

429
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 1: banging Tennessee at Houston. All right, I there's a couple

430
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 1: of games on this board this in San Francisco that

431
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: I feel like are gonna sneak their way in and

432
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 1: or could potentially as like scary bets. Like this list

433
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 1: line has moved all over since we discussed it. It

434
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: was at eight, it got to eight and a half,

435
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,959
Speaker 1: then it get down to eight in some spots. Now

436
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 1: it's down to seven and a half. You were adamant

437
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 1: that Texans were the side we discussed it the other day.

438
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: They are a massive, massive public play, very chalky. Eighty

439
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 1: percent plus of the tickets on the techan Texans, And

440
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 1: I would say in any other year, it's a no brainer.

441
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: We're betting the Titans. We're like, not even hesitating. We're in,

442
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: We're excited, we're optimistic. We feel like we got a

443
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: sort of a bead on the on the right line here.

444
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 1: But man, Will Levis, you know, and Evan's got some

445
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: crazy stats. You just mentioned one of them. But you know,

446
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: give me your take here. What are we thinking?

447
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's fair like professionals are betting Tennessee because

448
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 2: they're not that bad of a team. Something you talked

449
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 2: about every week. It's like they have a pretty good defense,

450
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: they can run the ball pretty well. It's just they

451
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: thought Will Lobson Mason Rudolph at the quarterback position this season.

452
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 2: There's a reason. That's that's why they're one to nine.

453
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 2: So I don't disagree with the people. It's like I

454
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: want to be on Tennessee. Who doesn't. They're you're getting

455
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 2: a bunch of free points because they're the only people

456
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: betting them as professional betters. But I can't get there.

457
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: I got no faith in this team, especially the Texans.

458
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 2: We've seen it. They're what ivan ten and one or

459
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 2: nine on one first half against the spread, Like, yeah,

460
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: they come out, they come out fast. Jad. This Texans team,

461
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: you know, there's a reason they have ten covers in

462
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: the first half. Like they don't mess around. They're just

463
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: a really well coached team, not only offensively, we've seen

464
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 2: defensively they just have they have some real gamers. So

465
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 2: I know I wanted to be on Tennessee. I want

466
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 2: to get there, but I can't do it. Like to me,

467
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 2: it's just it's still not enough points. But the professionals

468
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: betting this makes makes sense. Jad, Like I'm I'm someone

469
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 2: that's been betting Tennessee, I feel like for the last

470
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 2: two three weeks and it's just never getting there. And

471
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 2: even though I'm getting a ton of points, they somehow

472
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,360
Speaker 2: always forgot a way to shoot themselves on the foot.

473
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 2: It's mainly because of the quarterbacks. They're just the turnovers

474
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 2: are such killer, especially on their own end of the field.

475
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'd rather lose money this week on the

476
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 2: Panthers than Tennessee, I tell.

477
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 3: You that much. I totally agree with you.

478
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: I can't decide if with the Panthers, I mean with

479
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,479
Speaker 1: the Titans. You make a great point about the Texans

480
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: in the first half. If this game goes to form

481
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: and the Texans are great in the first half, the

482
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: Titans have been awful against the spread in the second half,

483
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: essentially for the entirety of the Will Levis Ere the

484
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: past two calendar years seven to twenty six and one

485
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: against the spread in the second half. This year one

486
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: to nine against the spread overall, the second time that's

487
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 1: happened through eleven weeks in thirty thirty years. This is

488
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 1: why you want to at least not bet on the Titans.

489
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: Forget about betting the Texans. The one thing I will

490
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: say about the Titans, and this is reflected in the

491
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: luck rankings, and we're gonna have some luck rankings games

492
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: in here. This is a big luck rankings under for

493
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: anyone who's interested. They have been incredibly unlucky. And if

494
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: you look even at the game last week right where

495
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 1: the Vikings covered and we thought that, you know, we

496
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: were anxious about cover there. It's one of the reasons

497
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 1: we didn't put in the contest. The Titans easily could

498
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: have covered that game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.

499
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: I'm sure you remember Simon cataloging everything have ever said.

500
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold was kind of terrible in that game. Got

501
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: most of his yardage from three plays. Bad handoff led

502
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: to a fumble, he fumbled, they recovered, The Vikings recovered,

503
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 1: but the Titans had like multiple penalties that called back

504
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: game changing plays.

505
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 3: Is that luck? Is that bad coaching? Were they bad calls?

506
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 3: I just feel like they're incredibly unlucky. Is that enough

507
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 3: to want to bet them put them in the contest.

508
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 3: I don't think so.

509
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: But they're like they're barely on the outside looking in.

510
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: It could be time for that trend to reverse. You

511
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: know what I'm saying, Simon, Yes, sir, are you ready?

512
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: Four hour Big Balls Better the Week.

513
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

514
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: John has the support. I know it because I'm where

515
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: my Tommy John's right now. Great games start with great underwear.

516
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest. Last week, we did something

517
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: we've never done. We took the Detroit Lions as huge, huge,

518
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 1: double digit favorites as our big Balls Better the Week,

519
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: and it paid off, paid off better than investing in

520
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 1: a pair of Tommy John underwear.

521
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: This week, we're fading.

522
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions is seven and a half point road

523
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.

524
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 3: We talked about it on Tuesday. We got to choose

525
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 3: between our babies. That's all this is.

526
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: We've been betting the lines, we've been betting the Colts.

527
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: We're going with the Colts.

528
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you have one ass, cheek and

529
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 2: three toes, I will beat your rass.

530
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: What's in your mind about this?

531
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: Because we just talked about it right before we came out,

532
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: so we didn't get to, you know, dig deep on it.

533
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: We've heard from sharp calls that they are on the Colts,

534
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: have you because on Tuesday I felt like we were

535
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: still fifty to fifty.

536
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a classic case of me getting bullied

537
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 2: into a pick. I liked it, but it feels like

538
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 2: every pro I know is just like you guys are

539
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 2: suckers if you don't take the Colts here. And you

540
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: liked it, I can tell I kind of liked it,

541
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 2: and then I read Evans article and it's like, Okay,

542
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: now it's all coming together. I when the trends back

543
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 2: up with the professionals like and you can see how

544
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: there is a gainscript. There is a way for this

545
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: to be that type of game where we talked about

546
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: Detroit Dada Hudginson thing has not really bit them. This

547
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 2: is the type of game it does right, and a

548
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 2: game where you know, they don't have that guy that

549
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: can contain the outside. They don't have that athletic freak

550
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 2: on the outside who's gonna be able to match the

551
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: speed of this Colts offense. Because we've seen Anthony Richardson.

552
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 2: You know, sure, you can say it's a small sample,

553
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: but they talked to him. They said to him, Okay,

554
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 2: you need to use your body more. We were no

555
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 2: longer protecting you. You need to run the ball more

556
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: and that's that's when we're at our best. And you

557
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: know last week in that game, he really did put

558
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: it all on himself. I mean that was an incredible

559
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: drive end of the game to lead his team down

560
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 2: the field and score that touchdown. And you know, how

561
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: how do they keep building off of that? We don't know,

562
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: but it's seven and a half. I'm willing to pay

563
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 2: for that insurance. It feels like we're getting a really

564
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: good number here against the Detroit team that we joked.

565
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: I don't know when the peak Valley's gonna be on

566
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: this trade team, but this is getting pretty close to it.

567
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 2: Like we know that they beat up on bad teams.

568
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: They have done so this year. Me and you both

569
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 2: love this Colts team. They're not a bad team, and

570
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 2: we've seen them just be different at home. I think

571
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 2: I'm almost positive covered. It feels like every game at

572
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 2: home this season like we've just been betting them at home.

573
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: And you know, Anthony Richardson, as much as people have

574
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: doubted him this year, he's one of the best covering

575
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all of football. Like he's great to bet on.

576
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: He just he finds a way to cover. And you know,

577
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 2: even though me and Chat had been on the been

578
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: on his side for a lot this season, we feel

579
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 2: like we've got lucky. I mean, especially that Week one,

580
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: while we remember that cover against Houston with a two

581
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: and a half. He's just been a covering machine. It's

582
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 2: kind of just the way the public is doubting him.

583
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: So the key number year seven and a half. I've

584
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: seen a couple of books already touch seven, shop around,

585
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: get that seven and a half. I'm starting to really

586
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: love this matchup, not just because of this offensive line,

587
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 2: how they match up this Detroit team, but not not

588
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: that we have major questions about this Detroit offense, but

589
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 2: it kind of feels like they are due for some regression, right.

590
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 2: It just they can't keep being this high powered offense

591
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: every week. There's gonna be teams that aren't going to

592
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 2: give them problems. And you know, I don't know if

593
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: Gus Bradley's the guy defensively that's going to figure out

594
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: how to shut down Jared Golf totally on this offense,

595
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: but I think he won out ways to keep this close.

596
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 2: He's a veteran DC. He knows how to go against

597
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: veteran quarterbacks. So yeah, Chat, I really had a tough

598
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 2: time with this one talking to people reading Evans article.

599
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, I feel a little bit more confident

600
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: now putting this one in, just because I know the

601
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 2: numbers do back up taking the seven and a half.

602
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 3: So look, matchup point of view and number wise, this

603
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 3: hits our ven diagram.

604
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: We love.

605
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: We have talked about it all year. It's why we've

606
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: been back in the Colts. We like their ability to

607
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: run the ball for two reasons. One, it allows them

608
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: to control the clock, lower the scoring, keep games closer,

609
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: but also it's a way for them to wear down

610
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: the opposing defense and able to work on the play action.

611
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: And Anthony Richardson he was really good last week. Like

612
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: you know, he completed a high percentage of his passes.

613
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: He didn't make the same mistake. It was impressive and

614
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: it's not like the Lions get pressure, so he shouldn't

615
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: feel like he's going to be forced into making bad

616
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: decisions as long as he sticks to the game plan

617
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: that Shane Steichen is putting in front of him.

618
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 3: So we like that.

619
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: Matchup wise, we also like Jared Goff playing against his

620
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: zone where he's just his numbers are significantly lower than

621
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: when he's playing against Man, when he's nearly perfect and

622
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: the Colts play more zone than anybody else you've wrenched

623
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: you've referenced Evans numbers Since twenty fifteen, teams after winning

624
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: by thirty five points twenty three, thirty four and one

625
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: against the spread. When they are favored by more than

626
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: four points, that number goes down twenty three thirty seven

627
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: against the spreads. In two thousand and three, teams who

628
00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 1: are road favorites after being a double digit fi in

629
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: any location road or away, a road or home have

630
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: had struggles against the spread over the past decade, just

631
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: forty three percent against the spread the following week the

632
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: past decade, last one from Evan.

633
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: In November or later.

634
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: Since two thousand and three, there have been forty games

635
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 1: where a team is averaging thirty three plus points per

636
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: game with a ninety plus win percentage. Those teams are

637
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: thirty two percent against the spread in their next game,

638
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: including four sixteen and one twenty five percent coming off

639
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: of a double digit win. So, all of a sudden,

640
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: we've got matchup ban trends that are making us feel

641
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: a lot better about the Indianapolis Colts.

642
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we have good reason to be scared of

643
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: Detroit team, right, so does everyone else that's betting this number.

644
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 2: But it's really all about what you just said, trusting

645
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 2: the number, trusting the mats, and then trusting the true runs.

646
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: It's like, this is an unusual spot where you kind

647
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: of need to back it. And I feel bad for

648
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 2: your Bear's team up next week for that Thanksgiving game

649
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: because it feels like we're gonna to probably throw this

650
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: one the money line around Robin. We're hoping for the

651
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: upset if they do. Man, are they going to take

652
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 2: it all out on that Bears team on Thanksgiving?

653
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: Listen.

654
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: I got to drive to Staten Island on Thanksgiving Day

655
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: to help my mother in law pack up a house

656
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: she's lived in for fifty six years because she's moving.

657
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: I am looking for That's how much I don't want

658
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: to watch the Bears Lions game is I will spend

659
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: the majority of that game going through boxes in a

660
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: garage that have not been touched in fifty six years.

661
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: That's what I'm choosing to do.

662
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: Oh man, what a terrible day.

663
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 3: Simon.

664
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: The NFL regular season stretch run is here. This year,

665
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: give a gift that helps your loved ones stretch and rot.

666
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: The Gift of Tommy John. Black Friday is next week.

667
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 1: We need to start thinking about the people on our

668
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: holiday gift lists, the men and women we love, those

669
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: who deserve the perfect gift and the confidence that comes

670
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 1: only when you're fully supported. I feel fully supported under

671
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: two circumstances, when I'm with you, Simon, and when I'm

672
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: wearing my Tommy John underwear. Simon, My brother, why will

673
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 1: you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season?

674
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: Pretty simple, chat, It's a gift that last.

675
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: You nailed it, brother. This Black Friday sales has begun,

676
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: so if you're looking to score your gifts early, go

677
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: to Tommy John dot com slash favorites for thirty percent

678
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: off right now, save thirty percent site wide for Black

679
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 1: Friday at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's thirty

680
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: percent off for a limited time at Tommy John dot

681
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: com slash favorites. Okay, we touched on San Francisco at

682
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: Green Bay. I'm still seeing twos out there. It has

683
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: ticked down a bit from two and a half to two,

684
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 1: and I think they started moving in the Niners direction

685
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: yesterday after practice. It got down to one and a

686
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 1: half at some of the more public books, but I

687
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: am seeing twos. I think we're both feeling a lot

688
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 1: better about San Francisco right now.

689
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: Yeah. I thought pretty was really hurt because, like I said,

690
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 2: he's just such a tough guy. I just he never

691
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: misses practices. And I was like, okay, if he's if

692
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: he's going to miss a practice, this has to be

693
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: a really serious shoulder injury. He was back out there

694
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 2: last week, I mean yesterday, and he was passing like that.

695
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 2: I know it said online it so it was limited.

696
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,760
Speaker 2: But the fact that he's throwing and it's it's that shoulder,

697
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 2: that's a big deal. Like it clearly there might be

698
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: some discomfort there, but at least he's out there. And

699
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 2: then we saw the big news that Kittle guaranteed pretty

700
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 2: much that he'll be back for this game. We know

701
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: how Porty is to that offense, not just as a

702
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 2: rum blocker, for everything else that brings to that team.

703
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is I feel like we both agree

704
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 2: on them. We just think the forty nine ers, as

705
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: bad as they've been, I still trust them more right

706
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: now than this Green Bay team, Like there's just something

707
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: off with this Green Bay team. And at the end

708
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 2: of the day, it's like we were gonna bet Green

709
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 2: Bay just because there's gonna be no party. Now that

710
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 2: we know will be back, it's like, Okay, this is

711
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 2: a good matchup for a really desperate team from the

712
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. And on the flip side, everything just

713
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 2: feels a little off with this Green Bay team this season,

714
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 2: right even their defense, they've been heavy reliant on turnovers.

715
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: Without turnovers, they're just not that good of a defense.

716
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: We've kind of seen a play out this season. So

717
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 2: Shanahan Evan had a great stat about him after losses

718
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 2: in these kind of spots, like he tends to bounce back.

719
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: You know, this is really about the number as well,

720
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 2: Like you just said, you're still able to get two

721
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 2: maybe for luck at our contest, we can get two

722
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 2: and a half. That's such a great number in this

723
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 2: matchup that just feels like it's gonna be really close,

724
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: down to the wire type of games. So the public,

725
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: they're coming in heavy on this forty nine Ers team,

726
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 2: which is not shocking. I think most I think in

727
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: the same way as me. So you know, we got

728
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: away with the last week been the public dog, maybe

729
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: we'll get away with it this week.

730
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: Yeah.

731
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: Look, we have had a hard time finding significant edges

732
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: in this game because both teams have sort of not

733
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 1: been able to be consistent and finished in the way

734
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: we think they should finish, right, Obviously, we think the

735
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: Niners should have blown out the Seahawks last week. They

736
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: should have blown the doors off the place in Tampa.

737
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 1: And in both games they've really struggled. They've had a

738
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 1: hard time all season long. They've had weird quirkiness. The

739
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: losing their kicker. I think it was against the Cardinals

740
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: that kept them from kicking field goals and that led

741
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: to a fumble that lost them that game. It's just

742
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: a lot of injury, bad luck. This is the biggest

743
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: luck rankings game of the week. This is a really

744
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: no bigger difference between luck factors than the Niners, who

745
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: are basically at the bottom of their ens and the Packers,

746
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: who were at the top. So when I saw that

747
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: come out yesterday from Doctor Nick, I felt a lot

748
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 1: more comfortable about about taking the Niners.

749
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 3: So that sort of put it over the edge for me.

750
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a rare opportunity this is the first

751
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 2: game I think in perty's a regular season career. I

752
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 2: can remember him being an underdog. I know when he

753
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 2: played the Eagles, he was underdog in the playoffs when

754
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: he got hurt, but Purdy, the books ever respected him

755
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 2: his whole career. I mean, I'll never forget when he

756
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 2: first came in me and Chad. I had to beg

757
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 2: Chad to take him against Arizona. I think he was

758
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: a minus four and a half favorite and we were

759
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: just like I get with Chad's covery. He's like, I'm

760
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 2: unsure about It's like, no, we just played this spot.

761
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: I think they rolled him in that first game, and

762
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: then it's just been on the roll since then. So

763
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: big deal. The fact that the books had made this

764
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 2: dog and Chad knows. I viewed this that this was

765
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 2: gonna flip just because of that, Like I thought the

766
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: pub would come in, the books would respect it, and

767
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 2: they would move it to being him being a favorite

768
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: by Sunday. Still could happen. So it's another thing where

769
00:38:57,800 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: it's like I want to play some number because I

770
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 2: could still see this flipping once we know all the

771
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 2: guys are healthy for this forty nine ers team. So yeah, chat.

772
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. If you can grab the

773
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 2: two right now, I'd grab it.

774
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 3: This is a little bit of foreshadowing. I just wonder

775
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 3: if it's worth playing the money line, Like.

776
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: If it's already down to it by the time we

777
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 1: get off the show, which is live, and these numbers

778
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: move fast when we're talking. If it's at one and

779
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 1: a half or one, I might just play the Niners

780
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: on the money line. That's fair Arizona. At Seattle, this

781
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 1: game has gone crazy like a kid at a bouncy house.

782
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: Cars plus one, cars minus one. Cars plus one now

783
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 1: is minus one again. You mentioned it in sharp calls.

784
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the

785
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: Cardinals a plus one and a half. You said you

786
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: saw it at two some places. This was my exac decision.

787
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 1: I believe you like it too.

788
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 3: Do we like it enough to make it when of

789
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 3: our final five?

790
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I thought I would break on this one, Chat,

791
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 2: I really did. I thought I would make it so

792
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: we wouldn't take this one. Evan had something amazing in

793
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: his article that I know you had to have seen it.

794
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: So Gino Smith we talked about his struggles this year,

795
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 2: especially at home in his career. So since the beginning

796
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 2: of last season, Gino Smith is three ten ats at home,

797
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: the worst mark of any quarterback in football. Did you

798
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 2: see who his three covers were against? It was against

799
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: Skyler Thompson, Josh Dobbs and Andy Dalton. Yeah, what are

800
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: we doing here? Can we not overthink this one for

801
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: once in our lives? No, we're just there. I know,

802
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 2: we got to live with the consequences. It sucks because

803
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: we both have a little weird feeling about this Arizona

804
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 2: when it feels too easy, a little little trappish.

805
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, once I saw that, It's just like when

806
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: we were got in Cleveland as a dog. They end

807
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: up as the favorite and we still take them because

808
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 1: we feel like we're getting, you know, a good number

809
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: at plus half a point. That's honestly, that's what's in

810
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 1: the back of my head right now. And they were

811
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 1: coming off a bye.

812
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 3: Are you kidding me? I know.

813
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: So it's just it really is to me about this

814
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 2: Arizona team's been a cent They've been playing so well.

815
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 2: It would burn us right if they had a let

816
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: down game here. But I think Gino is gonna make

817
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 2: it so we're not gonna have a letdown game. He's

818
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: just been horrible at home. He just does not live

819
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 2: up to the moments at home, and that's reflective of

820
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 2: this season. They're one to five against the spread at

821
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 2: home this season. Like, that's not the Seahawks we're used to,

822
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 2: I mean the last twenty years. Yeah, you could always

823
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 2: count on them, as bad as they would go through

824
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 2: their up and downs, You could always count on them

825
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,399
Speaker 2: at home. Those days are long gone. So yeah, chah,

826
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 2: maybe we're walking into it. Maybe there's other games you

827
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 2: like more. This won't be one of our five. But

828
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: as we city here right now, it's like, if we

829
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 2: have to force one in, I'm okay with us putting Ariazon,

830
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: even though it is a little fishy here. It's just like, man,

831
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: you can't deny that this guy struggled against good quarterbacks.

832
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 2: And as much as people want to deny it, Kyler

833
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 2: Murray is playing like a top five, top six quarterback

834
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 2: right now, like he has been balling out. So yeah,

835
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,760
Speaker 2: just feels like a nice number in a nice spot.

836
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: Well, look, we have five games on the list right now,

837
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: and I know we don't want to put the Titans

838
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: on there, but we like the Panthers, Titans, Colts, San Francisco.

839
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 3: Arizona the last game.

840
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: We have two more games to discuss and the Philadelphia

841
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: at the Rams. The Rams are three point dogs. This

842
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: has been bouncing around. I love the Eagles here and

843
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 1: you love the Rams and this was your Simon says,

844
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 1: and I just don't get it. Like this Eagles defense

845
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: is legit. They've gone from twenty seventh in the league

846
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:37,359
Speaker 1: in EPA allowed to number one the past since Week five,

847
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 1: like they have a really good defensive secondary. The Rams

848
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: have been entirely inconsistent. We have been on the Rams

849
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 1: the past three weeks. I feel like we've gotten away

850
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 1: with it. Last week we got burned the week before.

851
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: They make too many mistakes. Something is inconsistent about the

852
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: way they're playing this offense. I don't think they'll be

853
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: able to run the ball as effectively as they had

854
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: been able to do.

855
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 3: That opens up their passing game.

856
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 1: I I just don't get. I don't get why the

857
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: Eagles aren't to play here. I'm surprised that you're not

858
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: with me on this.

859
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: Been around the block, Chad, been around a long time

860
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: to know better than the step into this trap. This

861
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 2: is a fishy game with a fishy line. I just

862
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 2: think people are undervaluing this Rams team while they're overvaluing

863
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 2: this Eagles team. Now, Chad says that this tam has

864
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: turned it around. Okay, let's start from the top. They

865
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: lost sixteen to thirty three to Tampa, this Eagles team.

866
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 2: Then they went on a bye a week and we

867
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 2: all agree, whatever happened with fangs in that defense, all

868
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,479
Speaker 2: these young guys, they've they've been better since that bye week.

869
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 2: They came out, they beat Cleveland twenty to sixteen. They

870
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 2: didn't cover. You know, that was a game they easually

871
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 2: could have lost. Next week, they blow out the Giants, Okay,

872
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 2: earn that win. Next week they dominate that Cincinnati team.

873
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 2: That's another game we respect. They deserve that win. Then

874
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 2: they had that weird game with the Jaguars, which they

875
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 2: almost lost once again. That's what I'm trying to make

876
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 2: a point here of like they're up and down. They're

877
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: inconsistent this team this season. And then Dallas once again

878
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: they blew them out. And then Washington that was kind

879
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 2: of a felt like a lucky game to them, right.

880
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels, he just was not himself in that game.

881
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 2: Was not hitting throws that guys were open, Like he

882
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 2: had guys open. He just was not making the throws

883
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: against that Eagles team. So as good as this Eagles

884
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 2: team has been, I don't think they're not the lines

885
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: Like this is not some juggernaut team that doesn't have

886
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 2: some major issues like this to me is a team

887
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: that has been fortunate, a little bit unlucky, and just

888
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 2: overrated right now, like this should be a pick. This

889
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,359
Speaker 2: is the numbers just moved too much to me. That's

890
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 2: why I don't like it. Where Sunday night, I was

891
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 2: blind to it because I kind of had the same

892
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 2: thought of you of, like this Eagles team is way better,

893
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 2: Like they're better in this RAMS team. They are consistent offensively,

894
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 2: they actually have guys that can get stops defensively. But

895
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 2: then when you really look at it, it's like, you

896
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: know what, this RAMS team is not that bad, Like

897
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 2: they're just in my mind they're just like this Eagles team.

898
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 2: I mean you could say they don't have the big

899
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 2: names on defense, They've drafted really well, like these last

900
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 2: couple of drafts have been great for this Rams. Yeah,

901
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 2: that D line is actually pretty good, and you know

902
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 2: this matchup to me, is gonna come down to the quarterbacks.

903
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 2: And I don't trust Hurts right now, Chad. I'll be honest.

904
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: I just there's just something a little off about him

905
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 2: right now. So with me, this rams teme in this moment,

906
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: I looked at Evans trends didn't make me too confident.

907
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 2: Like I've seen Stafford has actually struggled as an underdog,

908
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: especially since he's been in LA. But I don't know

909
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 2: if you saw how bad Hurts has been in night

910
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 2: games on the road. He has not been good in

911
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 2: his career on the road in these night games. So

912
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 2: this is really about me trust the numbers, trusting the

913
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 2: sports book, and this is why they're all these tall

914
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 2: buildings build in Las Vegas, Chad, Like, this is the

915
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:52,760
Speaker 2: definition of a trap game on something that's.

916
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 3: The worst fucking cliche.

917
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 1: That's like what they say, that's what old people like

918
00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,919
Speaker 1: me say. That's not a bang in frame.

919
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 2: I've thirty times this week about this game. It's the truth.

920
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 3: It gives me confidence.

921
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna be coming in with their grandma trying to

922
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 2: get fat and rich off this Eagles team on Sunday night,

923
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 2: and they're gonna lose. This is such a bad chase

924
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:13,280
Speaker 2: spot for the general public.

925
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 1: All right, look, I owe you one because we put

926
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: Cleveland in last week and you wanted to put the

927
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: Chargers and that was the difference between three and two

928
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: and four and one for us. So if you're going

929
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,800
Speaker 1: to feel strongly about it, I have already bet the

930
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 1: Eagles aggressively here. And so if I'm going to have

931
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: to eat one and you feel a lot better about

932
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: the Rams than any other games, then we're probably gonna

933
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 1: have to put it in because that might be the

934
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 1: last option because the only other one on the list

935
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: that you know is playable is Tennessee.

936
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 3: Of the games that like.

937
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 2: Another not you love Tennessee. I'm not That's what I'm saying.

938
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: I was just, dude, I was just going to say

939
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 3: the only other game that like, I know you.

940
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 2: Keep saying their name, though, stop saying to see.

941
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 3: What is it like? Not Marvin Harris like that. We

942
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 3: quasi agree on that.

943
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 1: I that like, if there were no other options you

944
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 1: would be comfortable going with is Tennessee, which means you

945
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 1: like the Rams, which means our five are gonna end

946
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 1: up being the Panthers, the Colts, the Niners, the Cardinals,

947
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: and the Rams, and I'm gonna have to bet against

948
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: myself because I've already aggressively bet with real.

949
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,479
Speaker 3: Dollars on the E which is fine.

950
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I'm.

951
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,240
Speaker 3: Willing to eat it. I'm gonna eat it. It's fine.

952
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 3: Do we want to say anything about the Chargers and

953
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 3: the Ravens. I feel like I could go either way

954
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 3: on this. I kind of like the Chargers.

955
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: I wanted to be at three and a half, but

956
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 1: I don't know that I like the Chargers better than Panthers, Colts,

957
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: Niners are Cardinals, and I definitely don't think you like

958
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 1: the Chargers better than you like the Rams.

959
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 2: No, it sucks. I wanted to be on the Charger

960
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: as well, but at two and a half, it's like,

961
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 2: I feel like that's where the is in the Ravens

962
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:07,239
Speaker 2: with the general public. But yeah, this is this feels

963
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: like a game that maybe there's something I'm missing here

964
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 2: because it's It's also like I don't really understand the

965
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 2: movement here. I don't know why this numbers come down

966
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 2: so which I get why the professionals are on the

967
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 2: Chargers at plus three. I just don't know why the

968
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: books have moved off the plus three. It's just been

969
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 2: all Ravens money. So maybe I'll just stay away from it,

970
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 2: or maybe ill end up betting the Chargers once once

971
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: it comes Monday night of the plus three. But yeah,

972
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's this is just a weird week

973
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 2: where like I love all the primetime dogs and that's

974
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 2: that's really works out for me. So, uh, this is

975
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 2: either going to be a really really bad week for

976
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 2: the general public orm actually I'm gonna get absolutely slaughtered.

977
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 3: No, it's not.

978
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 1: You know why because the first thing you said on

979
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: Sunday again, I remember everything you ever say. You said

980
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: this upcoming week is going to be a bad week

981
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: for the public. You said you love the lines.

982
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 2: It feels that way, you love the games.

983
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 1: I was having a hard time. You gave me some confidence.

984
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: By the time I got to Wednesday afternoon again, like

985
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: two or three in the afternoon, I'm like, you know what,

986
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 1: some ugly numbers here, But that's an opportunity for us.

987
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: We are we are sussing out the opportunity.

988
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 2: Now we need a favorite. Chad. What's what's going on

989
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: with the Broncos? How do you feel about the Broncos

990
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 2: five and a half?

991
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 1: It feels that feels trappy to me. Like, I know

992
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: you're saying wise guys like it, but it's a vision game.

993
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,399
Speaker 1: The Raiders keep finding ways to stick around and then

994
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: blow it. But what if there's a week where they

995
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: don't blow it? Right?

996
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 2: And so that's a big what if? Yeah, I and

997
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 2: I just you know, I just you love dogs like

998
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 2: you're also scared of Timy DeVito. Something's wrong in your

999
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 2: brain where you're like, I think Timy Vito might be

1000
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 2: better for the Giants, And what fucking world is Timmy

1001
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 2: DeVito better.

1002
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 3: For the I want to I want to hammer the

1003
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 3: Giants and plus.

1004
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 4: I just do.

1005
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 3: I mean, we have a favorite, we have the Cardinals.

1006
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: Depends on your shock and that is true because there's

1007
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 2: still a bunch of plus ones out there.

1008
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 4: Right.

1009
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna do. Let's put the Broncos

1010
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: on there. You and I will have to sort of

1011
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: narrow it down, and it might it might end up

1012
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 1: being on Sunday. We want to move things around. I

1013
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 1: don't think the Broncos are in our final five right now.

1014
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 1: I think the final five is probably Panthers, Colts, Niners, Cards.

1015
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 3: And rams.

1016
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 2: A What a five? What a five?

1017
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 1: Unbelievable. Our big balls is the Colts. Our foxhole is

1018
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Are boosted money line underdog parlay. Each week

1019
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 1: we give out a two team money line dog parlay.

1020
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 1: Bet three six five is gonna boost those odds and

1021
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.

1022
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 3: Remember, both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early.

1023
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: Payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as

1024
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:55,879
Speaker 1: a win if either team takes a seventeen point lead,

1025
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 1: even if they lose. If you want to bet this

1026
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: bet at bet three six five, the boost did parlay

1027
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,240
Speaker 1: forty nine ers in RAMS feel like I'm getting bullied.

1028
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 2: He just undressed him all the way around. Look at that.

1029
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 2: He just got it handed too.

1030
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 1: It forty nine Ers and Rams find the Boost under

1031
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: either the forty nine Ers or RAMS game pages. I'm

1032
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 1: bet three six five. A reminder quick programming note. Next

1033
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: week is Thanksgiving. We do not do a thanks a

1034
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 1: Thursday episode on Thanksgiving. Obviously, I won't be around because

1035
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 1: I'll be packing up my mother in law's house in

1036
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: Staten Island. We will not have our normal Thursday episode.

1037
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 1: As this tradition, Simon and I will pack everything all

1038
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 1: of our picks, all of our segments, the one Mega

1039
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: spectacular episode on Tuesday.

1040
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 3: At our normal time, Simon, what is our money line?

1041
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 3: Underdog round Robin.

1042
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 2: Well, come up payday, halleluya. Wanta pay day. I will

1043
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 2: come up payday some day. Some day I will come

1044
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 2: up pay day, Yo, payday. I will come up payday

1045
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: some day.

1046
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 3: Here were my suggestions? Are you ready?

1047
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1048
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 1: Uh?

1049
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 3: San Francisco, the Colts love it? Chicago?

1050
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 2: What else you got?

1051
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 3: Rams love it? New England love it?

1052
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 1: Oh?

1053
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 2: No way, yeah, why not? I love I love them.

1054
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 2: They're big numbers like that, all right, Well, I just

1055
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 2: gave you four, So give me one plus three ten

1056
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 2: paired with the Colts plus three twenty. It's those hit.

1057
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 2: That's a great that's it.

1058
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 3: That's a Thanksgiving miracle right there. So give me one.

1059
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 2: Then I got damn Cardinals are minus one o eight.

1060
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:52,359
Speaker 2: So I guess we can't do Cardono.

1061
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: Yes, New England, San Francisco, Indy so far, and I.

1062
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 2: Mean, unfortunately, I guess we can't do Browns because it's

1063
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 2: too not enough listeners will hear it? Yeah, because that

1064
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 2: would definitely be a nice I go, I'm gonna personally

1065
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 2: throw that one in. I mean, the only other one

1066
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 2: I can think of for us is the Chargers. They're

1067
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen. I guess we kind of have to.

1068
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 2: It's a tough week right now for the Dogs. So yeah,

1069
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 2: I'll take that number.

1070
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: How about your biggest bets early here?

1071
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 2: Definitely Rams plus three, Chargers plus three, you know for

1072
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: these big dogs getting pretty heavy at this point on

1073
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: this Colts team, this Panthers team. So I would say

1074
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, my biggest bet is

1075
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 2: definitely that Rams in the forty nine ers, where if

1076
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 2: you can get to two to me, that's a big

1077
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 2: deal of this forty nine Ers team. I just I've

1078
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 2: been hitting this number just because I do think it's

1079
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 2: gonna flip. You know, that's not to my biggest year,

1080
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 2: that four hours one. So yeah, the Colts one comes Sunday.

1081
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: That or the Rams. Why not be my biggest bet

1082
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 2: when all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

1083
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 2: Let's play Scots Roulette.

1084
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:00,399
Speaker 3: Simon, guess who won Scoot roulettel week?

1085
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 2: Did you?

1086
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 1: He's got two thumbs and he says, banging, I took Detroit,

1087
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 1: you took Kansas City. I'm going with the indieplis quotes

1088
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 1: and Scoot Roulett.

1089
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 2: I'll go the Rams just because Chad likes the Eagles

1090
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 2: so much.

1091
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 1: I was gonna take the Eagles, and like, I just

1092
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 1: couldn't do it to myself to have him in the

1093
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,880
Speaker 1: contest and have to reform for Scooch Roulett and have

1094
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 1: bet on him. All Right, before we get out of here,

1095
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 1: let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams, the

1096
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: man we reference. So we should start setting a line

1097
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 1: on how often we reference Evan Abrams in our show.

1098
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 1: Maybe Matt Mitchell can set that. Take it away, Evan

1099
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:41,760
Speaker 1: the last word. With Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

1100
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a really good segue to this. So

1101
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 4: let's head into this. Things can only go so right

1102
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 4: for so long. Teams to score twenty four plus points

1103
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 4: in five straight games and are listed as a favorite

1104
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 4: are just forty five percent against the spread since two

1105
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 4: thousand and three, when they've also won all five of

1106
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 4: those games, it's down to forty two. Yes that includes Detroit,

1107
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 4: who is forty one and fifteen against the sprint over

1108
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 4: the last three years. And yes that also includes Philadelphia,

1109
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,319
Speaker 4: who is seven to oh straight up with aj Brown,

1110
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,799
Speaker 4: this year scoring thirty points per game, you could say

1111
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,719
Speaker 4: Detroit and Philly are pretty much banging right now going

1112
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 4: into the next one here Carolina, and I know you

1113
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 4: guys are all over this, so I had to kind

1114
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 4: of split this up and give you a different angle

1115
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 4: on it. So Patrick Mahomes has started forty four games

1116
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 4: as a road favorite in his career. When the home

1117
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 4: team scores less than twenty, he's eleven zho and two

1118
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 4: against the spread. As a road favorite, when they score

1119
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 4: twenty or more, he is just nine and twenty two

1120
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 4: against the spread. This bet is just about how many

1121
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 4: points can Bryce YOUWNG get on the board depending on

1122
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 4: the entire game. If he scores you know, one touchdown,

1123
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 4: two touchdown, Mahome's going to cover the game. So you

1124
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 4: might want to look into the team total in Carolina.

1125
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 4: That's another angle to kind of play there. And Chad,

1126
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 4: you had mentioned the Caleb Williams sack stats. Well, I

1127
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 4: found a little bit more of a simpler one. It

1128
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 4: kind of says the same story. So at this point,

1129
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:06,959
Speaker 4: a bet on Chicago is a bet on their offensive line.

1130
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 4: It's just as simple as that. When Caleb gets sacked

1131
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 4: four plus times, they are zero to four straight up,

1132
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 4: scoring forty one points in four total games three or

1133
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 4: less sacks. They're four and two straight up. More importantly,

1134
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 4: they're averaging twenty six point two points per game and

1135
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 4: scoring twenty plus and five of those six games Ibra

1136
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 4: Fluss face to Flores defense twice. Chicago has scored twenty

1137
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 4: five total points in those games, eight combined sacks. So

1138
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 4: it just depends on how Caleb can do in this one.

1139
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 4: But it's all about the sacks. That is a great stat.

1140
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: If there maybe we should be betting a sacks prop

1141
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 1: in that game and avoiding avoiding the number altogether. Thank you,

1142
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. I think you're spot on when you reference

1143
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: the Detroit trends. I think you're pretty often you're reference

1144
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:57,080
Speaker 1: in the contexts of Philadelphia. As a reminder, The Favorite

1145
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three six y five and

1146
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:02,440
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1147
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1148
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1151
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Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

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00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five

1153
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1154
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1155
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1156
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

1157
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Don't forget RSVP two hour free drinks watch

1158
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 1: party Q and A with Me and Simon in December twelfth,

1159
00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 1: Wicked Wolf in Philly. Come join us sweat the Thursday

1160
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: night football game. RSVP is in the episode description for

1161
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 1: the podcast and on the utuoube page. Simon and I

1162
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 1: will return where with our next episode of the Favorites

1163
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night, seven thirty

1164
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 1: pm Eastern to recap week twelve. Downloads some Spotify Apple

1165
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe, We

1166
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 1: was five stars.

1167
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 3: Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,

1168
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 3: Love you, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1169
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1170
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1171
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 1: hundred gambler