WEBVTT - Biden's Framework for Taxing Multinational Corporations

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We had many headlines today.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about states and cities around the US having

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<v Speaker 1>a growing surplus of COVID nineteen vaccines, and then you

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<v Speaker 1>had that headline coming out of CNBC, specifically the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of Fieser saying what we might need a third vaccine. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right, the CEO saying, with any year potentially need

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<v Speaker 1>a third vaccine. It's something that we've talked a lot

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<v Speaker 1>and asked a lot of our guests about what are

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<v Speaker 1>the chances that this is something we are going to

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<v Speaker 1>have to continue to inoculate ourselves against Yeah, exactly part

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<v Speaker 1>of kind of our annual taking care of ourselves. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>don't forget that late yesterday afternoon you had US Public

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<v Speaker 1>Health Advisors concluding a meeting on J and J's COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen vaccine without a vote no vote, effectively extending that

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<v Speaker 1>pause on its use while they seek more data on

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<v Speaker 1>a rare clotting side effects. So let's get our daily

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<v Speaker 1>check on COVID and the vaccine rollout. Dr Anna durban

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<v Speaker 1>is Professor of International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She's on the phone in Maryland.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Durbin, nice to have you here with us. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you And when you look out at the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>and vaccine rollout horizon, how does it look to you? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for having me today. I think

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<v Speaker 1>we can look at the vaccine rollout really from the

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<v Speaker 1>point of the United States and then globally, because I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're in two very different circumstances, particularly with the

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<v Speaker 1>pause on the J and J vaccine and then the

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<v Speaker 1>restrictions on news that Europe has put in place for

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<v Speaker 1>the Astra's NFA vaccine, so so so go ahead divide

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<v Speaker 1>it for us. The US, I'm assuming you're saying, doing

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good and the rest of the world not so good. Exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>In the US were very, very lucky to have options.

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<v Speaker 1>We have the madinal vaccine, we have the Visor vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>we have J and J which has been UM given

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<v Speaker 1>EAY but is currently on pause. And then we have

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of other vaccines that are going to go

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<v Speaker 1>before the FDA in the Nazi distant future, one of

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<v Speaker 1>which is Astra Zeneca. But the rest of the world

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<v Speaker 1>has really um has really depended heavily on different vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>on the astro Zenica vaccine, and then UM of course

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<v Speaker 1>there's the vaccine Sputnik five from Russian and some inactivated

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines that have been made in different countries. UM And

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<v Speaker 1>with the concerns about the clotting, although I will and

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to emphasize that it's a very rare

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<v Speaker 1>um event, but it can be devastating, which is why

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's appropriate that CDC and the Advisory committees

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<v Speaker 1>are sort of taking a pause and getting more information

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<v Speaker 1>to help us better understand what's going on, but that

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<v Speaker 1>has made less vaccine available, um here in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>but also I think globally. Hey, Dr Derby, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to we have a lot to cover here and I

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<v Speaker 1>really want to hit on this idea of when those

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<v Speaker 1>who don't qualify for a vaccine will be able to

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<v Speaker 1>get vaccinated, specifically children, because we learned today, uh from

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<v Speaker 1>the Mercury News out in California, that Stanford is starting

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<v Speaker 1>to test visors vaccine and babies and young children. Does

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<v Speaker 1>this look promising to you? It looks very promising. And

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<v Speaker 1>I want to say also Maderna has those pediatric childs

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<v Speaker 1>planned and has started as well, not quite as young

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<v Speaker 1>as Visor, but still in children, and I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>very promising. I think our expectations are that we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to start to see children being vaccinated probably late summer,

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<v Speaker 1>early fall. Young six months is what they're testing. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>they probably won't start in six months. Um well yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead. Well I'm just wondering how you know non

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic vaccine trials go for children as young as six months.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is the type of thing that needs

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<v Speaker 1>they need to be followed for a long period of

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<v Speaker 1>time to make sure there aren't effects that that come

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<v Speaker 1>after years, right right, Well, you know it's interesting this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know we this, uh, the way we've been testing

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<v Speaker 1>these vaccines and children is the way we've been testing

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines in children all along. So we always with children,

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<v Speaker 1>were very very careful and start testing in adults first

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<v Speaker 1>for safety, and then go down in age, gradually looking

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<v Speaker 1>at safety and then of course immunogenicity. So this process

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<v Speaker 1>is really not any different for the COVID vaccines. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what's interesting is of course that we're starting

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<v Speaker 1>vaccination in adults as opposed to children. Most vaccines were

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<v Speaker 1>used to being given to children. UM. And we will

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<v Speaker 1>proceed carefully, so the rollout will be for instance, in

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<v Speaker 1>adolescents and then going down to younger children, for instance

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<v Speaker 1>five to twelve years of age, and then going down.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not going to start in the sixth month. Dr Durvin.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me ask you. We've got about a minute and

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna do some news and we'll come back and

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<v Speaker 1>continue with you. But I can't help but feel there

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<v Speaker 1>are people coming up to you, maybe in other's and

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<v Speaker 1>just saying, see, I told you we did this too fast.

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<v Speaker 1>Look at what's going on with the J and J vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you say to them and just got about

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<v Speaker 1>a minute. Oh, I say this this is showing us

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<v Speaker 1>that our safety surveillance system works. So this is a

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<v Speaker 1>very very rare event, you know, one in a million,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not going to be picked up in clinical trials.

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<v Speaker 1>But what we do have is what we call post

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<v Speaker 1>life or post use surveillance for safety. And it was

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<v Speaker 1>picked up very quickly, you know, within a month of

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<v Speaker 1>the eu A being given. So I think what this

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<v Speaker 1>shows this is that our safety surveillance works were able

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<v Speaker 1>to pick up a very very rare event. We've you know,

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<v Speaker 1>looked at it. Safety experts have said, okay, let's take

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<v Speaker 1>a step back, let's pause, let's get more information, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll proceed from there. So I say, it shows that

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<v Speaker 1>the system is working, that we picked it up, we're

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with it, we're going to see what's happening, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll proceed from there. Let's get right back to Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Anna Durbin, Professor of International Health at the Johns Hopkins

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg School of Public Health, joins us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from Baltimore. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

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<v Speaker 1>is supported by Michael or Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Durbin, I want to talk a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about data and numbers. We did just here

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<v Speaker 1>from Charlie from Dr Amish Adulga, one of your colleagues

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<v Speaker 1>at the Bloomberg School of Public Health. He comes on

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<v Speaker 1>quick Take each week, and one thing that he's talked

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<v Speaker 1>about is that we shouldn't necessarily judge things by the

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<v Speaker 1>way that, uh, the cases are going up still, because

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<v Speaker 1>it's not necessarily the right metric anymore because so many

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<v Speaker 1>vulnerable populations have been inoculated. So even though we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a rising cases, we're actually not seeing a rise in

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<v Speaker 1>deaths and potentially a fourth wave here. Um, what do

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<v Speaker 1>you make of the fact that cases are going up

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<v Speaker 1>but but deaths are going down. Well, I think he's

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<v Speaker 1>exactly right, and I think there's a couple of things

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<v Speaker 1>that we look at to sort of explain why the

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<v Speaker 1>numbers of cases are going up. We've been in this

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic a year. The vaccine rollout has started, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think people are are becoming more optimistic and sort of

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<v Speaker 1>seeing light at the end of the tunnel and going

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<v Speaker 1>out doing more UM, maybe wearing masks a little bit less.

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<v Speaker 1>And then we also have the emergence, of course of

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<v Speaker 1>the B one one seven variant, particularly in Michigan UM,

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<v Speaker 1>which we know is more transmissible. The good news is

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<v Speaker 1>that most of the vulnerable population, or a great deal

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<v Speaker 1>of the vulnerable population, has been vaccinated. So we are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing fewer deaths, fewer hospitalizations, which is very very good news.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that also always brings me back to

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<v Speaker 1>when we talk about vaccine efficacy, and you know, people

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<v Speaker 1>try to compare numbers, and I think what gets lost

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<v Speaker 1>in some of that discussion is that what we're really

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<v Speaker 1>trying to prevent is diseased. We're trying to prevent severe disease,

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<v Speaker 1>prevent hospitalization, prevent death. And I think as all adults

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<v Speaker 1>moved towards being vaccinated, we're really going to see that

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<v Speaker 1>take effect. It does also feel like Dr Durbin at

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<v Speaker 1>the we're getting to a point where we have this

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<v Speaker 1>toolkit of things to deal with the virus. UH, We've

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<v Speaker 1>got several vaccines right preventing people from getting the worst

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID cases and keeping them out of the hospitals.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we've really come a long way in thirteen months.

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<v Speaker 1>We have come a tremendous way in in thirteen months.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's really unprecedented, and I think we've learned

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<v Speaker 1>a lot. We've learned a lot about, um, what to

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<v Speaker 1>do in a pandemic, what we've done right, what we've

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<v Speaker 1>done wrong. I think how important leadership and messaging is

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<v Speaker 1>around different public health practices. And it's interesting because they

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<v Speaker 1>have a lot of colleagues and friends who say, even

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<v Speaker 1>when the pandemic is over, they're going to wear a

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<v Speaker 1>mask when they go to the grocery store because they

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<v Speaker 1>saw the effect on influences and other things. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've come a long way, and um, it's it's we

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<v Speaker 1>still have a ways to go, but I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're going to get there, and I think the

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<v Speaker 1>summer's going to look a lot better for everyone. There's

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<v Speaker 1>this exclusive story that we talked about a little earlier

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<v Speaker 1>by our own Anna Edney and Drew Armstrong talking about

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<v Speaker 1>unused vaccines piling up across the US as some regions resist.

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<v Speaker 1>How do we get that last portion of Americans, those

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<v Speaker 1>ones who are hesitant to get the vaccine and what

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<v Speaker 1>happens if we don't. Let's start with what happens if

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<v Speaker 1>we don't like what happens here? So I think what

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<v Speaker 1>happens if we don't As we continue to see transmission, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we may see more variants arise, and I think what

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to do is lead to UM requiring or

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<v Speaker 1>or having to be vaccinated. UM again, get a third shot, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>or even you know, a year from now, get another shot,

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<v Speaker 1>because as long as we have ongoing transmission, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to keep vaccinating those people who are willing

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<v Speaker 1>to get vaccinated. And I think, you know, that's where

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<v Speaker 1>we get to the global picture, the worldwide picture. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the rest of the world is not going

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<v Speaker 1>to be vaccinated for quite a while. And that's why

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<v Speaker 1>I think we are going to need a third shot,

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<v Speaker 1>a booster shot, if you will, because as long as

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world is not vaccinated, or as

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<v Speaker 1>long as we have ongoing transmission, we're going to need vaccination.

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<v Speaker 1>And probably though also every year just got thirty seconds here, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>well every year for a while and control this pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll see there may be emergence of other coronaviruses.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think you're right, we'll be vaccinated for at

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<v Speaker 1>least the next year or two. All right, great day,

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<v Speaker 1>get some time with you. Thank you so much. I

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<v Speaker 1>know you guys are all busy. Dr Anna Durbin. She's

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<v Speaker 1>Professor of International Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

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<v Speaker 1>Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ALP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. On the phone from Maryland.

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<v Speaker 1>I like the idea of, you know, thinking about this

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<v Speaker 1>from the perspective of we don't have to get a

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<v Speaker 1>booster every year for the rest of our lives, and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe this is something well we have to do for

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of years or even a year. Yeah, until

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<v Speaker 1>the next virus. Oh, come on, Carl, I was gonna

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<v Speaker 1>end on a good note a little. Yeah, you you

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<v Speaker 1>think a lot about that next pandemic. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. Well. President Biden is among the

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<v Speaker 1>latest to ignite or reignite the global effort to create

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<v Speaker 1>a united front to prevent multinational corporations from playing one

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<v Speaker 1>country off against another million. It's all about Tim dodging taxes. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>they're big question is, how do you do this in

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<v Speaker 1>a way that every gets everyone around the world to

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<v Speaker 1>work together and avoid what's been happening really since the

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighties. Combine moment is what we need. Hey, this

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<v Speaker 1>is a story in the magazine this week. Let's get

0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 1>more on it. Bloomberg business Week Economics editor Peter coy

0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.440
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New Jersey, along with Bloomberg Business

0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Week editor Joel Webber on the access line in Brooklyn. Joel,

0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:46.400
<v Speaker 1>we love our tax stories here at Bloomberg. Yeah, and

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:48.679
<v Speaker 1>we love it so much. Business Week made this the

0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:53.520
<v Speaker 1>International UH cover because I thought it was really an

0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 1>interesting insight into sort of a pretty significant change in

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 1>the zeitgeist around corporate taxes and UM. What we've been

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:06.679
<v Speaker 1>seeing UM is sort of an unfrustated moment where rich

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:10.440
<v Speaker 1>nations and poor nations are are sort of getting on

0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:14.720
<v Speaker 1>a similar page, which is we need to raise corporate

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:19.360
<v Speaker 1>taxes and UH sort of end up penalizing those countries,

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the the Irelands of the world that attempts to sort

0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.480
<v Speaker 1>of like set a lower bar. So so Peter talked

0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:29.280
<v Speaker 1>to us more about this, this race against UH, the

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.400
<v Speaker 1>UH taxes going to zero right, sort of the race

0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 1>against the race to the bottom. Yeah, exactly, there you go.

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:40.600
<v Speaker 1>There's a natural tendency for countries to seek advantage by

0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:45.400
<v Speaker 1>cutting rates because then companies will shift their profits to

0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.680
<v Speaker 1>your jurisdiction and you'll be able to get something out

0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:50.199
<v Speaker 1>of it. It might be a low rate, but it's

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 1>better than you would have gotten if it's probably weren't

0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:55.800
<v Speaker 1>there at all. Sometimes it's real operations, factory and the

0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>song which is semi legit. But sometimes it's purely really

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.559
<v Speaker 1>hoarded profits. It'll be like you'll you'll say, all your

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.200
<v Speaker 1>patents are in the Cayman Islands because of the zero

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 1>corporate income tax rate. And these games have been going

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:13.599
<v Speaker 1>on for years. Governments have been trying to plug the holes,

0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 1>but the corporations have smart tax lawyers, and every time

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.959
<v Speaker 1>one hole gets plugged, another one gets opened. So we've

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 1>had this, as we say, race to the bottom going

0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 1>on for a long time, and corporate income tax from

0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 1>it affects domestic tax rates as well, because you can't

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 1>tax your own companies very highly if they're well aware

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.200
<v Speaker 1>that they can escape it by going abroad. So there's

0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 1>an impact on the sovereign government. Yeah, you call it

0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:44.199
<v Speaker 1>a game of cat and mouse. Also, I'm wondering about incentives, though, Peter,

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.600
<v Speaker 1>because there is this incentive for for one country to

0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 1>attract a business, of course, So how do you align

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.840
<v Speaker 1>incentives in a way that prevents companies or countries excuse me,

0:13:55.520 --> 0:14:01.080
<v Speaker 1>from creating policies that undercut some sort of international ena. Well,

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:04.080
<v Speaker 1>first of all, there's no rule that says you can't

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:08.560
<v Speaker 1>have a low tax rate the But what it does

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:12.360
<v Speaker 1>say is that they're called it the guilty rule, which

0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>I love. It's spelled g I L T I, but

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.240
<v Speaker 1>it's pronounced guilty as in caught you cut, you cheating

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 1>that if it's uh, it's intangible income such as from patents, trademarks,

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 1>so on that, and it's in a low tax jurisdiction.

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 1>The the U S or any other higher tax jurisdiction

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 1>can tax it up to a certain level above what

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.120
<v Speaker 1>the local jurisdiction chooses to tax. And once you have

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 1>that in place, it's sorty moves the incentive to move

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 1>to the low tax jurisdiction because the taxes are going

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 1>to follow you wherever you go. So, Peter, the one

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>big change here, obviously is the Biden administration, And I'm

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>want to talk about that, and why don't we use

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 1>Kimberly classing as a way to talk about that? Who

0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 1>is she Kimberly Classing? I interviewed her for an article

0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 1>in seventeen kind of about this theme, but at the

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 1>time there wasn't a lot of progress, and she was

0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 1>sort of a voice crying in the wilderness. Shosa economics

0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.160
<v Speaker 1>professor Read College in Portland. She's said, you know, well,

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 1>I believe Joel uh And and Read is also you know,

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the left of left. Yeah, it is. It's a kind

0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>of a lefty school. Since then, she moved to u

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 1>c l A Law school in January. This January, five

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>days after she arrived there, she got the call from

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>the White House, or not the White House yet, but

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:37.320
<v Speaker 1>the incoming administration saying we want you on our team

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 1>at Treasury. So suddenly, this this person who was kind

0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:45.040
<v Speaker 1>of as josh as on the outside looking in, is

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 1>very much on the inside looking out and helping make policy,

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 1>testifying before Congress, and and helping wholly the Biden administration,

0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 1>which under Trump had been sort of resisting some of

0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 1>the efforts by the O E. C. D in the

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 1>Group of is now very much in concert with those

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 1>other countries and with the poor countries as well. There's

0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.800
<v Speaker 1>a hundred thirty nine rich and poor countries together trying

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 1>to come up with a joint policy. So and how

0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 1>has the Biden approach been received abroad? It's it's it's

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>been received well because there are a lot of countries that,

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, they may be engaged to the race to

0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:25.800
<v Speaker 1>the in the race to the bottom, but they don't

0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>like it. They'd much rather have a race to the top,

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.600
<v Speaker 1>or at least some kind of stability. So, for example,

0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:38.280
<v Speaker 1>the Finance Minister of France, Bruno lemaire Um, has basically said,

0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is looking like it could be a

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>revolution attacks revolution, that's what he called it. So yeah,

0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:51.200
<v Speaker 1>the overall they don't agree with everything the Biden administration

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.720
<v Speaker 1>wants to do, but they sense tonally that they're they're

0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>more in sync than they have been in a long time. Well,

0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I kidded coming into this, Peter, that kind of a

0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:04.520
<v Speaker 1>Kumbaya moment when it comes to taxes globally, I feel

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:06.760
<v Speaker 1>like we're just this time where it's just hard to

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.679
<v Speaker 1>get anything done and get everybody to cooperate on something.

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:13.600
<v Speaker 1>So likely that we do ultimately get something done and

0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.240
<v Speaker 1>how quickly if we do. I do believe that it's

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.360
<v Speaker 1>likely something is going to happen here. There have been

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 1>previous efforts. So there was another effort that was concluded

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:26.400
<v Speaker 1>in that went some of the way towards what we're

0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.639
<v Speaker 1>getting at now, but they felt it wasn't enough, so

0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.520
<v Speaker 1>they went back to the drawing board and they had

0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the second effort, which is more comprehensive, more countries involved.

0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:39.600
<v Speaker 1>So there was a great quote from Pascal's sentim with

0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.440
<v Speaker 1>a director of OAS Center for Tax Policy and Administration

0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>who said, you know, there's no plan B if the

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:50.640
<v Speaker 1>project fails, but there's a plan C chaos. So Peter,

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.240
<v Speaker 1>if if something does happen very briefly, we only have

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:55.960
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds left. Um, what does it mean for the

0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 1>bottom line of for U S companies and global companies.

0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Are they going to see higher taxes or they're going

0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.200
<v Speaker 1>to have to have these lawyers come in and find loopholes.

0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 1>Bottom line is that it won't be quite so easy

0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:13.120
<v Speaker 1>to find loopholes, so taxes will go up modestly, But

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:17.320
<v Speaker 1>but the US companies will not be affected. US headquarter

0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:19.200
<v Speaker 1>mostly net will be less affected because they have a

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>harder higher tax race to start with, it's the companies

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:27.320
<v Speaker 1>that have been most effectively escaping taxation who will fule

0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:29.840
<v Speaker 1>at the most, which does include some of us companies. Well,

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 1>it's a great read and something that's certainly has caught

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.479
<v Speaker 1>everybody's attention. Anything with taxes. Um, Peter, thank you, Thank you.

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:39.080
<v Speaker 1>Peter Koy, Economics editor, the international cover a Bloomberg Business

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:41.480
<v Speaker 1>Week this week, and Joe Weber are thanks to you

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 1>as well. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:50.200
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.560
<v Speaker 1>we did have another IPO today this year also, it's

0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.640
<v Speaker 1>been a busy ipo. Calendar mobile apps company app leven

0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 1>and existing shareholder kk are pricing an initial public off

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 1>ferring at the midpoint of a marketed range, raising two

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.440
<v Speaker 1>billion eighty dollars of share. Stock began trading day a

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit of a delayed open, and they did open

0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>trading below their offering price. Right now, the stock at

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 1>sixty fifty a share down. About let's get into the

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.000
<v Speaker 1>business and what's ahead for app Love and the CEO

0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.040
<v Speaker 1>and co founder Adam Ferrugi joins us. Now he's on

0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 1>the phone from the nastac Adam. Nice to have you

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.040
<v Speaker 1>here with us. How are you. Thanks, thanks for having

0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:29.879
<v Speaker 1>me doing well well. Tell us a bit about your company,

0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:32.880
<v Speaker 1>and you guys didn't go the traditional route of kind

0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:35.720
<v Speaker 1>of tapping VC money and venture funds. You went the

0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.160
<v Speaker 1>leverage loan market. Just tell us about your your whole

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 1>approach to bringing this company and building out this startup. Yeah,

0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:45.960
<v Speaker 1>for sure. We we built a technology platform to help

0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:49.800
<v Speaker 1>app developers get their apps discovered, and we started in

0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 1>two thousand twelve in market. We've been profitable ever since

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 1>and the business today drives our partners over three billion

0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>app installs. To customer is the consumer, and we have

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:04.600
<v Speaker 1>software in the middle that does matching make sure the

0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:08.800
<v Speaker 1>consumer discovers the best content. So wait, do me a

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 1>favorite break it down, because I think somebody's listening and like,

0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't know this world that he said, explain it.

0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 1>So have you worked with a client, Pick a client

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.959
<v Speaker 1>if you can, or just be generic, but what you

0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:21.200
<v Speaker 1>might do for them. Let's say you built an app,

0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:24.119
<v Speaker 1>and you built this cool new game and you needed

0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:27.080
<v Speaker 1>to find users for it. When we started, we built

0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:28.640
<v Speaker 1>an app and we put it on an app store

0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:31.119
<v Speaker 1>and couldn't get it discovered. So we built this platform

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:34.480
<v Speaker 1>to let you go onto our platform, market your app

0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>to consumers, and then get them to understand what you're

0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>promoting and download the app and engage with it. We

0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>now see over four million daily active users on our platform,

0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 1>and we're matching them up with apps from our partners

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:54.000
<v Speaker 1>three billion times a year plus. How do consumers interact

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:57.560
<v Speaker 1>with the apps that your service recommends on a long

0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 1>term basis? Right? It's one thing. My phone is full

0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:02.720
<v Speaker 1>of apps that I just do not use anymore that

0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:04.880
<v Speaker 1>I've downloaded once. What are the metrics that you have?

0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:10.800
<v Speaker 1>It's the consumer sees the app through a commercial, typically

0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:13.880
<v Speaker 1>anywhere from five to thirty seconds, think like a television commercial,

0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:17.480
<v Speaker 1>highlighting what the app has to offer. Our software in

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:19.840
<v Speaker 1>the middle is matching up consumers that are going to

0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 1>become customers of that app developer. We do a great

0:21:23.160 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 1>job of predicting what the consumers are actually going to

0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:29.520
<v Speaker 1>be interested in, and we deliver performance to our advertisers.

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:32.639
<v Speaker 1>How do you do that in a way that uses

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.439
<v Speaker 1>data so that what I would see recommended to me

0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:38.080
<v Speaker 1>might be different. What than what Carol C. Is recommended

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 1>to her. What's the data that you're using? Yeah, what's

0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 1>interesting is in two thousand eighteen, we expanded our platform

0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.919
<v Speaker 1>by launching our own content. We published and and have

0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:50.919
<v Speaker 1>bought over two hundred games. The games are played by

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.640
<v Speaker 1>over two hundred million people every single month. And then

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.199
<v Speaker 1>so that gives us great audience insights. We know what

0:21:57.280 --> 0:22:00.600
<v Speaker 1>our customer is interested in. That data, which is our

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:04.840
<v Speaker 1>own and engagement data through the customer accessing our games,

0:22:05.160 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 1>feeds into our machine learning recommendation engine we call acts

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:13.520
<v Speaker 1>on and that does the matchmaking. How does games tell

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:17.439
<v Speaker 1>you a lot about me? Or tim? What tells us

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:21.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot? Or when someone transacts in one of our games?

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:23.800
<v Speaker 1>You're just playing a game does not tell us a

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:25.960
<v Speaker 1>whole lot. But if you go and spend ten dollars

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.520
<v Speaker 1>on a game. Let's say one of our popular games

0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 1>is a game called Project Makeover excuse heavily female, If

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:34.719
<v Speaker 1>you spend ten dollars in that game, our systems can

0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 1>figure out what other types of apps you're going to

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:39.960
<v Speaker 1>be likely to engage with. We can probably guess that

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.440
<v Speaker 1>you're going to also be interested in e commerce shopping app.

0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:45.399
<v Speaker 1>What does what does innovation look like in this space

0:22:45.480 --> 0:22:47.880
<v Speaker 1>and in terms of gaming, focusing out on that rather

0:22:47.920 --> 0:22:50.280
<v Speaker 1>than like an e commerce shopping app, because we have

0:22:50.359 --> 0:22:52.600
<v Speaker 1>seen the rise of in app purchases within games. But

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, what makes what makes a game stick? And

0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:57.680
<v Speaker 1>then how do you continue to build on that? These

0:22:57.680 --> 0:23:01.440
<v Speaker 1>games are great access points to the will app ecosystem

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 1>has given us the most affordable and accessible form of entertainment,

0:23:04.920 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 1>which is this mobile gaming ecosystem. It's a billion dollar

0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:13.080
<v Speaker 1>market still growing ten per cent plus year over year,

0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>and these games continue to be live updated. So so

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:20.760
<v Speaker 1>if if you play Project make Over every two weeks,

0:23:20.760 --> 0:23:23.720
<v Speaker 1>our developer adds content to it for you to engage with,

0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>just like a favorite TV show would add an episode

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:29.480
<v Speaker 1>every week. And so we see people engaging with our

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 1>games for years. All Right, I know you're not the CFO.

0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:35.199
<v Speaker 1>I know you're not the financial guy. But are you

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 1>a little disappointed that the stock is below the offering

0:23:39.320 --> 0:23:41.760
<v Speaker 1>price today? You're a smart guy. You know that this

0:23:41.840 --> 0:23:46.200
<v Speaker 1>is not what you kind of hope for in a debut. Uh, Like,

0:23:46.359 --> 0:23:49.560
<v Speaker 1>we built a great company. We raised two billion dollars successfully.

0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:52.240
<v Speaker 1>We're much more long term focused. Some of the best

0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 1>technology platform companies have had rough starts to the market

0:23:55.640 --> 0:23:58.720
<v Speaker 1>as people start understanding why a platform is so powerful.

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:01.959
<v Speaker 1>We've got a business. We have four daily active users

0:24:02.359 --> 0:24:04.960
<v Speaker 1>on our platform, and then we have our own content

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:08.679
<v Speaker 1>being engaged with by two million of them, and just

0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:11.120
<v Speaker 1>you put these pieces together, you can create a lot

0:24:11.160 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 1>of growth into the future. We're excited about our prospects.

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:16.639
<v Speaker 1>We're coming off for best growth year and best growth

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:19.679
<v Speaker 1>quarter of all time, and we're thinking about this business

0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:21.639
<v Speaker 1>three five years from now. Where is it stock going

0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:24.000
<v Speaker 1>to be? Not today? Okay, Adam, Once and for all,

0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:26.720
<v Speaker 1>we have thirty seconds left answer the question the origins

0:24:26.720 --> 0:24:28.919
<v Speaker 1>of the company's name. Is it from the movie super

0:24:28.960 --> 0:24:33.480
<v Speaker 1>Bad and mclovin or not? Maybe subconsciously it's a good movie,

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:35.720
<v Speaker 1>but it's an eight dollar domain name. It did lead

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.000
<v Speaker 1>us to a great ticker app. We've been talking about

0:24:39.040 --> 0:24:41.080
<v Speaker 1>this in the newsroom. Um, listen, come back and let

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 1>us know the growth metrics as you guys move forward,

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:45.400
<v Speaker 1>because we'd love to hear a little bit more about it.

0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:48.879
<v Speaker 1>We've been talking with Adam Ferugie. He is the CEO

0:24:48.880 --> 0:24:51.400
<v Speaker 1>co founder of Apple Love and making its debut today

0:24:51.920 --> 0:24:54.720
<v Speaker 1>uh Stock. As I mentioned about here in its first

0:24:54.760 --> 0:24:58.560
<v Speaker 1>day of being a publicly held company at sixty four

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:01.720
<v Speaker 1>thirty four a air. Just a quick check. Let's see

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:04.440
<v Speaker 1>if we've got a market cap number a thirteen point

0:25:04.440 --> 0:25:12.920
<v Speaker 1>five billion in that fewsday. I'm bro mac journal. Yeah,

0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:15.560
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive? No, no, no, who's going

0:25:15.640 --> 0:25:20.360
<v Speaker 1>to drug home? Please? I'll do the right gravel. Let's

0:25:20.760 --> 0:25:29.680
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive, Just drive, baby, the questions drying.

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:39.640
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe coming. Thanks, we'll

0:25:39.720 --> 0:25:43.639
<v Speaker 1>drying us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, it

0:25:43.720 --> 0:25:45.879
<v Speaker 1>is time for the drive to the close. Just a

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 1>little more than nine minutes left in today's trading day.

0:25:48.960 --> 0:25:51.239
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it with Kelsey Barrow, fixed in come

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:55.000
<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager focusing on US rates and inflation sectors at

0:25:55.040 --> 0:25:58.679
<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan Asset Management, on the phone from Hoboken, New Jersey. Kelsey,

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here with him and myself. When

0:26:01.600 --> 0:26:03.040
<v Speaker 1>you look at today's market, I thought it was an

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 1>interesting one. We saw stocks up, and we saw bonds

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:10.119
<v Speaker 1>up and yields backing off. Explain that to me, especially

0:26:10.200 --> 0:26:14.440
<v Speaker 1>especially when it comes to the fixed income trade. Yeah. Absolutely,

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:17.359
<v Speaker 1>this is a really interesting day to be on with you,

0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 1>So thank you for having me Carol and Tim, so

0:26:20.400 --> 0:26:23.399
<v Speaker 1>I would say it was a data tsunami. We started

0:26:23.400 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 1>out with record strong marked retail sales, and one thing

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:29.119
<v Speaker 1>that set out to me with the retail sales report

0:26:29.240 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 1>is actually now every sector, every category within the report

0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:37.480
<v Speaker 1>is above pre COVID levels except for restaurants. So of course,

0:26:37.640 --> 0:26:40.200
<v Speaker 1>looking at that data and then looking at these thirty

0:26:40.240 --> 0:26:42.919
<v Speaker 1>year treasury yields, which is down eight basis points on

0:26:42.920 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 1>the day, you think it'd be a disconnect. But for us,

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:50.560
<v Speaker 1>we see this as as somewhat not surprising, particularly because

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:54.600
<v Speaker 1>if you think about last quarters which US treasury yields,

0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:57.080
<v Speaker 1>it was the worst quarter for government bonds since the

0:26:57.160 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighties. So this is a bit of a validation

0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:05.080
<v Speaker 1>trade here. The data is confirming the strong recovery, and

0:27:05.119 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 1>now that we've gone past the volatility inducing events the

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:12.000
<v Speaker 1>retail sales report, this pp I report, to our power

0:27:12.119 --> 0:27:14.880
<v Speaker 1>speaking earlier in the week, people are dipping their toes

0:27:14.920 --> 0:27:17.879
<v Speaker 1>into the fixing home markets again. So how much higher

0:27:17.920 --> 0:27:23.240
<v Speaker 1>do interest rates go this year? So after this consolidation phase,

0:27:23.280 --> 0:27:26.000
<v Speaker 1>we do think that yields are going to be higher

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:28.840
<v Speaker 1>over the balance of the year. Uh, we think that

0:27:28.920 --> 0:27:32.480
<v Speaker 1>two on the tenure is a reasonable stopping point to

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:36.480
<v Speaker 1>expect over over a period of time once we see

0:27:36.480 --> 0:27:40.679
<v Speaker 1>how the recovery continues through the summer. Wait, let me

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:43.159
<v Speaker 1>go back to this. So you're saying that maybe we

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:47.199
<v Speaker 1>overreacted in terms of the fixed income market, the treasury market,

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:51.399
<v Speaker 1>uh last quarter, and that's obviously was playing out in

0:27:51.440 --> 0:27:53.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of the performance when we start rates move up

0:27:53.119 --> 0:27:55.080
<v Speaker 1>so much and then now we're just kind of calming

0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:58.520
<v Speaker 1>down and understanding, yeah, the economy is getting back on track.

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:01.679
<v Speaker 1>This is what we expected, and that was already priced

0:28:01.680 --> 0:28:05.359
<v Speaker 1>into the fixed income market. Yeah. So I think that

0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:08.879
<v Speaker 1>when I look back at the move in guilt, it

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:12.639
<v Speaker 1>was historic about a ad basis point rise last quarter,

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:17.280
<v Speaker 1>and there is an opportunity for foreign investors, particularly to

0:28:17.440 --> 0:28:19.680
<v Speaker 1>look at our market and say things have gotten more

0:28:19.680 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 1>attractive here from evaluation perspective, and maybe it's time that

0:28:23.600 --> 0:28:26.320
<v Speaker 1>we put a few chips on the table. But it

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:28.080
<v Speaker 1>is really well wait, wait, I want to just jump in.

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:30.719
<v Speaker 1>Is it a case that things have calmed down and

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:34.880
<v Speaker 1>this real worry about rates moving you know, well above

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:38.680
<v Speaker 1>two percent, inflation getting out of control, that's not happening.

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 1>So I think you hit the nail on the head

0:28:42.400 --> 0:28:46.040
<v Speaker 1>with the inflation conversation. So I think that we have

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:50.760
<v Speaker 1>been concerned about what what inflation would bring over the

0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:54.240
<v Speaker 1>next few prints. And while the CPI report was strong,

0:28:55.080 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 1>I look at the six months run rate on core

0:28:57.280 --> 0:28:59.640
<v Speaker 1>c p I at one and a half percent, and

0:28:59.720 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 1>that's not runaway inflation at least for now. I've been

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:06.560
<v Speaker 1>wondering about the role of fixed income in portfolios and

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:11.160
<v Speaker 1>if there is still that traditional need for it for

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:15.080
<v Speaker 1>many of your clients, given what interest rates have done,

0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:20.520
<v Speaker 1>what they're doing now, and where they're expected to go. Absolutely,

0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:22.920
<v Speaker 1>and I think we all lived with fields are a

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 1>little bit higher in this environment. But we do still

0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 1>see this as a positive environment for the fixed income markets,

0:29:30.480 --> 0:29:34.560
<v Speaker 1>particularly when the FED is still a good backdrop and

0:29:34.800 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 1>default are falling, which is a good good backdrop for

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:40.360
<v Speaker 1>credit spread. So where do you want to be along

0:29:40.400 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>the curve here? So when I think about the treasury curve,

0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 1>it has steepened a fair bit already, but it could

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:52.920
<v Speaker 1>continue to steep in as the economy recovers. So where

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:55.520
<v Speaker 1>you're going to get the most protection is in the

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:57.840
<v Speaker 1>front end, the front ends, So you want to do

0:29:57.880 --> 0:30:02.240
<v Speaker 1>the shorter end here, Yeah, because eventually we do see

0:30:02.280 --> 0:30:05.200
<v Speaker 1>YOUELD continuing to rise. Uh, and that's where you're going

0:30:05.240 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>to get the protection. What is the time frame there?

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:10.240
<v Speaker 1>You say, eventually? But but but what are you forecasting?

0:30:11.760 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 1>So we see two percent on the tenure for a

0:30:14.440 --> 0:30:18.920
<v Speaker 1>year end um and after a period of consolidation, which

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:22.160
<v Speaker 1>is essentially what we think we're experiencing right now, that

0:30:22.240 --> 0:30:25.720
<v Speaker 1>that is going to start talking about papering. They set

0:30:25.720 --> 0:30:29.600
<v Speaker 1>the bar quite high to discuss papering. We are all

0:30:29.640 --> 0:30:33.960
<v Speaker 1>wondering what substantial progress actually means. We think it's going

0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:37.000
<v Speaker 1>to mean a number of months of job growth. So

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the one million print we got last months, that's great.

0:30:40.760 --> 0:30:42.920
<v Speaker 1>We're going to have to get a string more of those,

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>and then they're going to start considering, uh, where we're

0:30:46.360 --> 0:30:49.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be on the past normalization? Well, I mean,

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 1>in general, do you feel like, um kelsey, things are

0:30:52.680 --> 0:30:56.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of going maybe as we hoped. I mean, obviously

0:30:56.040 --> 0:30:58.160
<v Speaker 1>there's been a lot of stimulus pumped into the economy,

0:30:58.360 --> 0:31:00.920
<v Speaker 1>whether it's from fiscal poll to see, whether it's through

0:31:00.960 --> 0:31:04.720
<v Speaker 1>the Fed uh and easy money moving around here. But listen,

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 1>this is what we wanted, right. We didn't want the

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>economy to stay down for too long, because then it's

0:31:09.320 --> 0:31:11.320
<v Speaker 1>much more difficult to get up. Is it kind of

0:31:11.360 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 1>recovering in a productive and uh kind of normal and

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:20.000
<v Speaker 1>organized way, so that we don't have to be worried

0:31:20.040 --> 0:31:24.400
<v Speaker 1>necessarily about inflation getting out of control. Absolutely, Fiscal policy

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:28.160
<v Speaker 1>and monetary policy makers have done a great job. They

0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:31.040
<v Speaker 1>have responded quickly. Um. In fact, when I look at

0:31:31.040 --> 0:31:34.520
<v Speaker 1>the coal in g d P during the depth of

0:31:34.560 --> 0:31:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the crisis, it was around two trillions. The fiscal response

0:31:38.120 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>has been more than double that whole. With infrastructure it

0:31:41.400 --> 0:31:45.360
<v Speaker 1>could be easily three times the original whole. So we

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:50.120
<v Speaker 1>are there to experience the recovery. It is coming through

0:31:50.320 --> 0:31:53.360
<v Speaker 1>as we expected. Um. And at the same time, I

0:31:53.400 --> 0:31:58.160
<v Speaker 1>think structurally inflation can remain contained. So what do you

0:31:58.200 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 1>say to a client who comes at you and says,

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:02.400
<v Speaker 1>I want to go all equities because I just don't

0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 1>see any opportunity and fixed income and we only about

0:32:04.400 --> 0:32:09.760
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds. Absolutely well, as I said before, I think

0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:12.960
<v Speaker 1>we all wish yields are were higher, but there's still

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:16.080
<v Speaker 1>a diversification benefit from being in fixed income on the

0:32:16.200 --> 0:32:19.200
<v Speaker 1>days where things are not going well, which would be

0:32:19.480 --> 0:32:22.560
<v Speaker 1>not like today, but on a day when as these

0:32:22.640 --> 0:32:27.120
<v Speaker 1>are struggling. We still see value, hedging value and having

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:30.880
<v Speaker 1>some fixed income in a portfolio. Just quickly fifteen twenty seconds,

0:32:30.920 --> 0:32:35.240
<v Speaker 1>corporates any what's your position there. So we are very

0:32:35.280 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 1>comfortable with credit spreads at this time, particularly because we

0:32:38.560 --> 0:32:41.960
<v Speaker 1>see default rates falling this year. In fact, when I

0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:44.920
<v Speaker 1>look at the amount of defaults we've seen so far

0:32:45.000 --> 0:32:47.680
<v Speaker 1>in the high yield market, it's about two point three billions.

0:32:47.720 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 1>That's an annualized rate of just point six percent, so

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:54.000
<v Speaker 1>significantly lower than we experienced lash year. Right, we just

0:32:54.040 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>had a headline JP Morgan itself setting a bond sale

0:32:56.440 --> 0:32:59.160
<v Speaker 1>at thirteen billion, the biggest ever for a bank. So

0:32:59.800 --> 0:33:04.120
<v Speaker 1>you're own company certainly out there in the credit market, Kelsey,

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, klcy Barrow. She's fixed income portfolio manager,

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:11.520
<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan Asset Management, on the phone from Hoboken, New Jersey.

0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Thanks week. Brisdoomberg is bliss. This massive, Carol We Brisdoomberg

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>is bliss. This