WEBVTT - What Happened in Houston 0:00:02.840 --> 0:00:07.600 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:12.120 and six since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.760 main story the city of Houston is staring down the 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:20.000 barrel of an exponential increasing cases over the next few weeks, 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:24.440 and its hospital system is on the verge of being overwhelmed. 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:34.120 But first, here's what happened in virus news today. In 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:37.600 the United States, the pandemic is tearing through the heartland. 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.159 The U saw one of its highest ever increases in 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:46.280 cases yesterday, more than thirty four thousand, five hundred new infections, 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.800 close to the peak in April. New modeling predicts the 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:55.400 virus will kill a hundred and eighty thousand Americans by October. 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.560 It's causing some states that were previously lays a fair 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:03.840 about IRIS restrictions to take more stringent measures like face 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:09.399 mask orders and internal quarantines. The virus is now ravaging 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.800 some states that hadn't been hit as hard in previous months, 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.959 states that were slow to enforce lockdowns or quick to 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:21.880 lift them. One of those states is Texas. Cases and 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:26.960 hospitalizations there are surging as a result. Texas Governor Greg 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.840 Abbott announced and in an executive order today that it 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:34.480 was putting the brakes on its phase reopening. While businesses 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.120 that were already permitted to open can stay open, the 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:42.800 next phases of reopening have been put on hold. The 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:47.120 situation is most dire in Houston, where some experts expect 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:51.640 the virus outbreak to swamp the city's medical infrastructure by 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:59.120 July four, and Houston is the subject of our main 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:03.240 story today. Bloomberg reporters and the Court and Joe Carroll 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:06.639 report that if cases keep rising at their current pace 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:11.080 in Harris County, which includes Houston, they will triple or 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:15.960 quadruple by mid July. I spoke with Emma and Joe 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:19.840 today about how the city's hospital system expects to manage 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:30.360 the crisis. How did we get to Texas being the 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:34.040 new hot spot of COVID? You know, Texas shut down. 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.040 The governor was reluctant to shut anything down back in 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.240 back in March and April, as we saw COVID erupting 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.480 in places like New York and Chicago. Eventually did did 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:49.040 did order a lockdown of sorts um you know, and 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.280 it seemed like it was it was working. The case 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:56.000 load stayed low, relative to what were hot spots at 0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:59.760 that time. Hospitals were fine. And after after a few 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:05.080 weeks so they reopened surgeries to you know, reopened doctor's 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:08.000 offices and and and then at the beginning of May 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.520 just began reopening the entire state. It was phased, you know, 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:12.519 you know, if you were owned a restaurant, maybe you 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.760 could go to your occupancy. You know, it wasn't a 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.679 full on reopening, but but the numbers stayed low and 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.080 and things really didn't sort of explode here until right 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:25.200 around Memorial Day, late May, the cases started to really 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.080 take off positivity rate with through the roof, and that 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:31.920 has continued and we we get to where we are now. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.920 We're in the Houston area. Anyways, the intensive care units 0:03:34.960 --> 0:03:38.440 are all used up. They're going to have to convert 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.160 some other beds over to to make some space, and 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:44.000 the projections are of the case load world, we'll just 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:48.600 continue higher. You know, what has been the response of 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.880 of health workers, of physicians, of hospital workers to this development. 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:58.880 We've heard a lot of understandably concerned from medical providers, um, 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.120 you know, saying we don't really know what the coming 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.320 days and weeks will bring, and you know, in particular 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.760 for them, you know, as for I think everyone. You know, 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.120 the example of New York City and what happened to 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:13.560 our hospitals. You know, that example really looms large and 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:16.839 cast kind of a dark cloud over you know, medical 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.040 providers all around the country. You know, they don't want 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:22.280 to see the same thing happening in their own emergency departments, 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:24.880 in their intensive care units. And and yet you know, 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:29.599 as these intensive care unit beds fell up, hospitals can 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:32.799 of course expand their capacity, right um, But the concern 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.520 here is really you know, once you start exceeding those 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:38.640 traditional I see you beds, you know how much further 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:41.760 can you expand capacity? Right? So I spoke with the 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.960 head of the Texas Medical Center, which you know describes 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.440 itself as the largest medical city in the world. It's 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.040 based in Houston, and Bill McKeon said to me, do 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:53.240 we think that we can care for those patients and 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:55.960 provide them a bed and provide them and do we 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:59.400 have the proper amount of personal protection equipment? Do we 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.880 have the proper amount of ventilators? Yes? On all accounts, 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.960 So in that sense we feel but remember, capacity is 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:11.839 like a giant bathtub that at sooner or later if 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.800 water goes unchecked and the faucets are filling, then at 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.800 some point any place, even the biggest medical city in 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:22.000 the world, will overflow. And Joe, you know, what is 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.599 the the sense on the ground in Texas? Are people 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.640 wearing masks? Are people getting a sense that, you know, 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:33.040 this pandemic is not over yet? What what is the 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:37.359 feeling in say Houston? For many weeks there was a 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.359 sort of an undercurrent that a lot of the precautions 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.280 that have been taken, we're overkilled, that masks were silly, 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.520 um and and and there's also there is a deep 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.440 strain of of you know, this this las fair approach 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.360 where the government doesn't get to tell me what to do. 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:54.320 That's very, very ingrained here, even in the metropolitan areas. 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.360 Over the last couple of days, that has taken quite 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.080 a hit because the numbers coming out of the medical 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.320 center in other places of and so alarming. There seems 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:03.359 to be a little more acceptance there. There's there's a 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:05.359 lot of fear when you when you know, when you 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:07.240 hear that that the all the I c U ben 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:09.479 are are taken up, or most of them are taken up. 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.760 I mean it frightens people, and so the community is 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.720 pretty divided. There are still folks who saying, look, mask 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.360 won't help, you know, who sort of sneer at the 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.679 formal recommendations, and then of course their neighbors are angry 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:23.640 with them because they'd really like to see you wearing 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.839 a mask. This morning, the governor surprised everybody when he 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:29.000 came out and he said, the reopening is on hold. 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:33.080 You know, it had been set to be a phase reopening, 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:35.160 and so we're you know, depending on the line of 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.640 business you were in, you were open to maybe fifty capacity, 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.680 you're uh, and then on a certain date in the 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.400 next few weeks you were going to be allowed to 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:46.000 go to seventy some to that. So he froze all 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:49.360 of that, which nobody saw coming. Is there any sense 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.920 from from the medical community that perhaps with the new 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:56.239 drugs and the new therapies that have started to become available, 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.640 like from desevere and whatnot, that even though there is 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.320 a high or case count, that perhaps you know, the 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:06.320 death rate will not correspondingly rise as well in safe 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.719 places like Texas if you think about it, like in 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:10.920 the start of this pandemic, we were talking a lot 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:14.440 about building, you know, creating more ventilators. You know, we're 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:17.720 still kind of talking about, you know, producing more testing supplies, 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.800 things like that. So we've had some time to prepare, 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.000 and a lot of the hospitals I spoke to in 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.000 Texas as well as in Arizona, where there's also you know, 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.880 a rising hospitalizations, have said we are better prepared than 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:33.360 we were before. We have personal protective equipment, Whereas at 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:35.160 the start of this pandemic, I mean, there were some 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:38.520 really horrifying reports coming out about what, you know, frontline 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.200 medical providers were wearing to go to work at this 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.240 with this really highly infectious disease on the loose. But 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:47.480 you know, across the board, preparation is better. But I 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.720 think what's important to note, and I spoke with a 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:53.520 really wonderful doctor and professor in New York UM who said, 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:55.720 you know, there's a lot of things you can do 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:58.960 to prepare UM now that we have all this information 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.320 about the virus, but until you're in it, it can 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:03.920 be hard to know if you're really prepared. And I 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.560 think we've heard that also from you know, hospitals in 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:11.240 Texas and Arizona saying we think we're prepared, but reasonably, 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.920 there's only so much stuff we have, right There's a 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.400 limit to how many doctors we have. You can't stockpile 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.840 respiratory therapists the way you can, you know, mask, So 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.240 this is just something to keep in mind. You know, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.920 there we have a lot of medical infrastructure in this country, 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.040 and we have the ability to to bring in volunteers 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.520 or even travel providers from other parts of the country, 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:33.800 but there are going to be some serious limits. And 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:35.880 I think it's worth pointing out that in some of 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.960 the parts of the country where we're seeing these cases 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:42.200 take off, it's also extremely hot outside. I'm not a 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.600 field hospital expert, but I think what we did in 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.319 New York when putting a field hospital in Central Park 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.959 kind of most iconically. I don't know how feasible that's 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:51.960 going to be in other parts of the country where 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:55.960 it's just so hot outside. What are either some lessons 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.319 perhaps Texas can take from some of the former hotspots 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.160 like New York in kind of charting a path forward, 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:07.040 or alternatively, what are some new factors that people are 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:10.199 going to have to take into account, like the heat 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:13.880 in Texas in the summer that is going to necessarily 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.439 mean a new roadmap that people are going to have 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:18.520 to start writing a new guide book of how to 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.720 deal with a COVID outbreak In a state like Texas, 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.240 the heat has been a real challenge and and and 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:27.000 there's there's no blueprint for for how to deal with it. 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.280 I mean, it's it's it's in the nineties fahrenheit here 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.559 every day now, it's especially in South Texas, and it's 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:35.120 extremely humid, and that strives everybody indoors. Everybody's got an 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.080 air conditioning running. And the question, the unanswered question, is 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:40.400 that actually contributing to the to the sort of the 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.960 bloom and cases we're seeing because indoors it's transmitted more 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.640 easily and you just don't stay outside all afternoon like 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:50.120 like you might if you were, you know, in Chicago 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:52.960 or Detroit or someplace. And it's sort of counterintuitive because 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.240 when you think about a quarantine, certainly don't think about 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.440 you need to get outside in the sunshine. Um when 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:00.679 they set up a field hospital here, they did set 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:03.120 up one for Harris County. That's the third wild third 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:04.760 largest county in the in the country, and it's where 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.120 Houston is. It was at a at the pro football 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.080 stadium turned out not to need it because we just 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.640 didn't have the caseload then. So we spoke with county 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:15.640 officials yesterday and they are getting ready to re establish 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.120 it within forty eight hours when they see sort of 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.880 the overflow. I see you beds that we talked about, 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:22.920 If they'll start to fill up, then they're gonna they're 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:25.080 gonna go open this field house and it is it 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:27.360 is air conditioned. You said you could not do it 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.679 outside and at this climate. Something we're also hearing out 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:33.560 of Texas has been this tendency towards you know, the 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:37.320 cases that are new are a lot in younger age groups. 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:41.679 Are young people inadvertently spreading the virus in the community, 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.120 you know, thinking that they're young and healthy, not taking 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:47.880 precautions because they don't think that they're at risk. Folks 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.120 were starved of of of of a social life for 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.360 more than a month, and so when when clubs and 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:59.199 taverns and restaurants started to reopen, especially here in Houston, 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:04.240 in places like Austin, Dallas, uh, young people predictably flocked 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:06.400 to them. The medical authorities do think that played a 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.120 big role in our surge here as much as the 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.880 younger folks aren't tend not to be fragile. They're also 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.520 really hard to scare. And so you could talk about 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:17.120 this virus being out there and there there is a 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.720 certain segment of community that thinks, well, that's you know, 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.240 I get the flu every year and I'm not I'm 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.040 not eighty years old. I don't need to worry about it. 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:27.440 And so it seems that the folks trying to trying 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:30.439 to convince everybody to mask up have a challenge on 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.679 their hands. I mean, what would you say, is is 0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:36.240 something that can be done or should be done on 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.600 the ground in these states right now? I think going 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.520 forward in the in the next two weeks, maybe three weeks, 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.880 what we that will determine the path States like Texas 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.720 take what they're gonna watch. You know, we are seeing 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:52.200 the sort of expected rise in in case in caseloads, 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.640 you know, due to so many weeks after after the 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:58.280 state reopened. Question is is COVID nineteen is lethal this 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.400 time around, as say it was when it when it 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.080 ravaged New York. We don't know that it's not yet. 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.760 We're not seeing those kind of fatality numbers, and I 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.800 really think that will drive what what the politicians do 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:13.760 if we see that sort of tragedy, I think that 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:16.160 they will rethink how how hard they want to go 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:20.199 on businesses and on residents. Frankly, with the next when 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.400 we have our next pandemic, if it is not as lethal, 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.640 I I don't think there'll be the political will to 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:36.040 change things. That was Ema Court in New York and 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:40.320 Joe Carroll in Texas, And that's our show today. For 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.200 coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:48.720 the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.360 you like the show, please leave us a review and 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:55.520 a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 0:12:55.520 --> 0:13:00.080 way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:04.559 Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gaspore, 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:10.080 Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:14.240 recorded by Emma Cort and Joe Carroll. Original music by 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:18.560 Leo Sidron. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:24.000 Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.