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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. That's when you have

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Speaker 1: fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking for

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Speaker 1: when I was good? Ready, go.

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Speaker 2: In bolder on the baseline Pop, oh yeah, way outside.

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Speaker 1: Possible time. I'm the wiley event said there it is, well, whoa, whoa.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by FanDuel. I'm

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, predictive analyst here at Action Network, and joining

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Speaker 1: me is our director of predictive Analytics, Sean Kerner. Today

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Speaker 1: we have March Madness Sweet sixteen player props for you

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Speaker 1: in rounds one and two. Sean, we combined for a

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Speaker 1: thirty nine and sixteen record plus twenty point units almost

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Speaker 1: twenty one units including Sean five and one on picks

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Speaker 1: from this very podcast last week week. A reminder, every

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Speaker 1: prop we give out is tracked in the Action App. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you are looking for deep dives into every game

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Speaker 1: of the first round, be sure to check out our

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Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast and we'll have extensive breakdowns

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Speaker 1: on actionnetwork dot Com and the Action App as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, let's dive in the player props for

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Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen. It sounds like you're heading to the

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Speaker 1: East region for your first pick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So for my first prop, I'm going Marquise Noel

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Speaker 2: of Kansas State to go under eighteen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: It's at minus one twenty five right now, but he's

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Speaker 2: only cleared this in five of the last fourteen games

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Speaker 2: in Kansas State average seventy two point three points per

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Speaker 2: game over that stretch, and they only have a team

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Speaker 2: total of sixty eight against Michigan State here, so points

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Speaker 2: will likely be harder to come by this. This matchup

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Speaker 2: also doesn't favor do well. He tends to rely on

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Speaker 2: getting to the free throw line to put up points.

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Speaker 2: He's an eighty nine percent free throw shooter, so that

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Speaker 2: makes sense. In the five games he cleared this number

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Speaker 2: over that stretch i mentioned, he averaged nine point two

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Speaker 2: free throw attempts a game. In the nine games he

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Speaker 2: was held under this number, he only averaged three point

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Speaker 2: six free throw attempts a game. In Michigan State sends

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Speaker 2: their opponents to the line less than the league average

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Speaker 2: three point four percent, to be exact, less than the

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Speaker 2: league average, which means this is just a less favorable

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Speaker 2: matchup for Nol. That's why we're projecting him closer to

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Speaker 2: sixteen points here with a sixty five percent chance of

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Speaker 2: staying under eighteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like that. And from another part of

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Speaker 1: our projections there, we also have him over on his

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Speaker 1: assist prop and while we're not taking that, you know,

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Speaker 1: we would love to see him dish out those assists

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Speaker 1: I think for this one. So a nice correlated player,

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Speaker 1: I should say, correlated play take a kickos off for

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Speaker 1: the first pick of the Sweet sixteen. All right, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go to my first player prop, and I I'm

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Speaker 1: also staying in the South region. I'm gonna take Vladislav

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Speaker 1: Golden under nine and a half points in that Florida

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Speaker 1: Atlantic versus Tennessee game. Now, Vladislav Golden for Florida Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: He's averaged ten point six points this year, but that

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Speaker 1: came in seventy seven point eight points per game for

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Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. Now they go up against this very strong

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Speaker 1: Tennessee defense, also a team that does play a little

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Speaker 1: bit slower on pace than the national average. So as

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Speaker 1: a result, Florida Atlantic's team total is just sixty two

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Speaker 1: and a half points, which is a twenty percent reduction

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Speaker 1: in points from the seventy seven point eight they've scored

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Speaker 1: this year. So if you think about it, you know,

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Speaker 1: Golden's had about a ten and a half point per

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Speaker 1: game average, and we reduced that by twenty percent. All

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, we're down to eight and a half

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Speaker 1: just by pure mathematics. Then his projective minutes are down

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Speaker 1: from earlier in the year by about ten percent. He's

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Speaker 1: been right around that nineteen minute mark plus their minus

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Speaker 1: like two minutes in almost every single one of his

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Speaker 1: recent games, so we are projecting him for nineteen minutes there.

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Speaker 1: So we need to reduce that projected point total even

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Speaker 1: further for the minutes reduction, and then that doesn't even

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Speaker 1: get into the matchup Golden. He is a big, big,

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Speaker 1: big guy, seven plus footer, and he only scores from inside. Well,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee allows the fifty second lowest two point attempt to

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Speaker 1: field goal attempt ratios, so they don't let teams shoot inside.

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Speaker 1: They forced teams to shoot from the outside from three pointers,

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Speaker 1: so as a result, you know, he won't have as

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Speaker 1: many field goal opportunities, and when he does get field

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Speaker 1: goal opportunities, Tennessee is eleventh in the nation in field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage allowed. From two pointers, so that bumps his

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Speaker 1: projection down even further. As a result, Sewan, we're projecting

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Speaker 1: him for just seven and a half, so definitely like

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Speaker 1: under nine and a half here, all right, Sean, time

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Speaker 1: to go to pick number two. What do you got

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Speaker 1: for us?

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Speaker 2: So I'm going with Tristan Newton of Yukon to go

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Speaker 2: under four and a half assists. He's he's clear this

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Speaker 2: in four straight games. However, since conference play started, he's

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Speaker 2: only cleared this exactly fifty percent of the time. So

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Speaker 2: this would typically be a good number for him, but

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Speaker 2: this is a terrible matchup for him to rack up assists.

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Speaker 2: You know, Arkansas sends their opponents to the free throw

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Speaker 2: line at one of the highest rates in the country.

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Speaker 2: Can't get assists when you know you're shooting free throws,

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Speaker 2: so that that's reason number one. But also Arkansas is

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Speaker 2: good at, you know, generating turnovers. Again, you can't really

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Speaker 2: get assists when you're turning the ball over, and Arkansas

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Speaker 2: is one of the best teams in the country at

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Speaker 2: preventing three pointers. That's a big reason why their assists

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Speaker 2: rate allowed is around seven percent lower than the Division

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Speaker 2: one average. Plus you know, I've been busted, you know,

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Speaker 2: taking over on assist prop. So I was looking for

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Speaker 2: an assist prop to take the under. I just think

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Speaker 2: with all these games being lower scoring, it's assists have

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Speaker 2: been harder to come by. So I like the fact

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Speaker 2: that we're already showing value on the under here at

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Speaker 2: four point one assists first projection with a sixty one

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Speaker 2: percent chance to stay under four and a half here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like that, Dan, I'm with you pretty much,

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Speaker 1: and there will be an exception, but pretty much. I

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Speaker 1: have been enjoying the assist unders as well, and we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about that one. But you know, I think this

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Speaker 1: is a really good spot for that assist under. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm going to join you, but I'm going

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Speaker 1: to spin this a little different. I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: Tristan Newton under, but I'm gonna do under twenty and

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Speaker 1: a half points plus rebounds plus assists, and you can

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Speaker 1: get that at minus one ten. So, in addition to

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Speaker 1: everything you said about the assist which one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: is right there with you, I really like Newton to

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Speaker 1: go under his points prop as well. So why don't

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Speaker 1: we combine them all together? Now, Tristan Newton. If we

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Speaker 1: just look at field goals, he makes fifty two point

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Speaker 1: eight percent of his points from field goals via the

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Speaker 1: three ball versus a national average of thirty seven point

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Speaker 1: seven percent. So I'm not counting free throws and just

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Speaker 1: looking at field goals fifty two point eight percent versus

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Speaker 1: a thirty seven point seven percent national average, he makes

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Speaker 1: from three Well, Arkansas is just the opposite. They allow

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Speaker 1: just twenty nine point eight percent of field goal points

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Speaker 1: to come via the three ball again, versus that thirty

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Speaker 1: seven point seven percent national average, so like eight percent

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Speaker 1: lower than the national average, and that is good for

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Speaker 1: eighth lowest in the nation. So they are preventing the

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Speaker 1: three ball Arkansas is. Now there is maybe a little

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Speaker 1: bit of an angle here where Newton gets fouled a lot,

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Speaker 1: because Arkansas does foul a lot, and Newton does score

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Speaker 1: a very good chunk of his points from the free

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Speaker 1: throw line. But I think that would come into play

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Speaker 1: most in a close game if connecticuts ahead, especially that

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Speaker 1: last minute or so. But then even often you're not

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Speaker 1: trying to foul their most accurate free throw shooter in

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Speaker 1: Newton certainly has a very high free throw percentage, So

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Speaker 1: there's a chance they try to find other players to

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Speaker 1: fiul as well, so we're not really showing anything on

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Speaker 1: the rebound side. We're right in line with the market there.

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Speaker 1: But since we're showing under on both points and on

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Speaker 1: the assists side, I'm gonna go with the points plus

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Speaker 1: the rebounds plus the assists under twenty and a half

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Speaker 1: for Tristan Newton. All right, So that is our picks

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Speaker 1: for the Thursday games, And Sean, I know you and

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Speaker 1: I both each have a pick for Friday's games as well,

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Speaker 1: So why don't you start us off with your Friday

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Speaker 1: game pick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. For my Friday pick, I have Kishaw Johnson of

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Speaker 2: San Diego State under five and a half rebounds at

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty. And you know, the first thing is

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Speaker 2: San Diego State loves rotate players in and out of

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Speaker 2: the lineup during the game, similar to a hockey team.

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Speaker 2: I swear firmail was a fastbreak and they did a

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Speaker 2: whole line shift. But joking as sad they usually have

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Speaker 2: nine players play between fifteen and twenty five minutes, so

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Speaker 2: Johnson's only average eighteen minutes a game in the tournament

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Speaker 2: as a result, So it's gonna be tougher and to

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Speaker 2: clear this number just if that trend continues. But you know,

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Speaker 2: if he does happen at top twenty minutes here, which

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be too crazy, this is just a tough matchup

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Speaker 2: for him to see extra rebound chances. You know, Alabama

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Speaker 2: is a good shooting team that gets to the line

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Speaker 2: at a very high rate. They also turn the ball

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Speaker 2: over at a higher rate than league average. They also

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Speaker 2: rank top twenty five in offensive rebound rate and have

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Speaker 2: their shots get blocked at a top twenty five rate,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty bizarre. But all of those factors should

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Speaker 2: lead to fewer rebound chances for Johnson, not more so

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Speaker 2: in his limited playing time. He's gonna have to kind

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Speaker 2: of get lucky to see, you know this many rebound chances.

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Speaker 2: So I love getting him under five and a half

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Speaker 2: rebounds right now. So we're projecting this closer to five

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Speaker 2: rebounds with a sixty two percent chance of him staying

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Speaker 2: under five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I really like that that block angle there because

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Speaker 1: a lot of times, you know, there will be while

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Speaker 1: you can get a rebound off of a block, a

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Speaker 1: lot of times it will be swatted out of bounce

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Speaker 1: or something like that, which does create a lower percentage

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Speaker 1: of a chance of a rebound there. So just Sean

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Speaker 1: going the extra mile here to even look at the

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Speaker 1: blocks on this particular prop. Love it. Sean gave his

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Speaker 1: Friday pick. I'm gonna give my Friday pick. And this

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Speaker 1: is where the exception that the assists rule comes into play.

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Speaker 1: I'm going back to the well here because Sergei Bari

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Speaker 1: Rice went over one and a half assists last week,

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Speaker 1: and I'm taking them over one and a half assists

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Speaker 1: again this week in Texas's matchup versus Xavier. When I

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Speaker 1: say we're going back to the well, remember we got

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty for over one and a half assists

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Speaker 1: against Colgate. We're getting plus money here against Xavier. And

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Speaker 1: like Colgate, Xavier doesn't force turnover. Xavier is two hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninety third in the nation in turnover percentage. And

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Speaker 1: Xavier doesn't foul. There's sixty second in the name in

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Speaker 1: foul rate. That means, if you're not forcing turnovers and

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Speaker 1: you're not fouling, more possessions are going to end in

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Speaker 1: field goal attempts. And when you get more possessions ending

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Speaker 1: in field goal attempts, some of those are going to

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Speaker 1: go in, which means some more are going to be assists. Also,

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Speaker 1: Xavier is not great at preventing shots from going in.

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Speaker 1: They're just one hundred and forty ninth in the nation,

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Speaker 1: which is right around national average at effective field goal percentage,

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Speaker 1: which you know, compared to the schedule that Texas has

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Speaker 1: faced this year, is actually worse, you know, than what

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Speaker 1: Texas has faced, So that should help surge Bari grab

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Speaker 1: some assists as well. If you know the teammates he's

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Speaker 1: passed new and they're taking shots, those shots are going

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Speaker 1: in at a higher rate. Also, Xavier, they just don't

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Speaker 1: prevent assists win shots do go in. Their assist rate

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Speaker 1: defensively is two hundred and fifty third in the nation,

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Speaker 1: well above national average. So all the signs here pointing

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Speaker 1: to over on assists very much like we saw with Colgate.

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Speaker 1: Same thing for Xavier. So one other factor about Xavier,

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Speaker 1: they're even more uptempo than Colgate was sech just leads

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Speaker 1: to or overall possessions. So we're projecting right around to

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Speaker 1: assist here. I'm favored to go over Sean, so I

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Speaker 1: like that. Plus money, What do.

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Speaker 2: You think after the first couple of rounds. My rule

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Speaker 2: is just don't take the over on any players. It's

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Speaker 2: just prop unless, of course it's Sir Jabari Rice. To

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Speaker 2: be clear, somebooks posted as Jabbari Rice, right, So.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, lots of naming confusion out there. So those

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Speaker 1: are our six player props. We do have one other

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Speaker 1: loose end to tie up here, and that is the

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Speaker 1: Giffing Guide to March Madness. Remember we were trying to

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Speaker 1: roll over eight teams to get them into the Elite eight.

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Speaker 1: We just wanted one of them to hit, because if

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Speaker 1: one of them does, we will profit. And right now

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Speaker 1: we have two teams out of the eight alive, which

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Speaker 1: is pretty much right around expectation. And since we tend

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Speaker 1: to go with underdogs on these, I think Creighton's actually

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Speaker 1: the only like eight or lower seed, so you know,

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Speaker 1: would be favored in their first game. In terms of

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Speaker 1: just a eating perspective, I think we're doing pretty well

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Speaker 1: by getting two teams. And the two teams remaining, like

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Speaker 1: I said, are Creighton and they will be facing Princeton,

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Speaker 1: and then the other team is Arkansas, and Arkansas is

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Speaker 1: going up against Yukon. So Arkansas getting that big upset

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Speaker 1: of Kansas, they are now underdogs versus Yukon as well,

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Speaker 1: And this is exactly what we talked about. That compounding

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Speaker 1: nature of things means we're getting Arkansas plus one point fifty.

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Speaker 1: We're already at one point one six units, right if

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Speaker 1: we started with a quarter unit on them, we're betting

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Speaker 1: one point one six based off the quarter unit we

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Speaker 1: initially had, what we won from the first game, what

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Speaker 1: we won from the second game. So one point one

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Speaker 1: six times one and a half. That's gonna put us

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Speaker 1: well over the two unit initial investment should they beat Yukon. Similarly,

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Speaker 1: Creighton versus the spread, it's not quite gonna get us

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Speaker 1: there because right now we're at point nine to four units.

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Speaker 1: They ended up, you know, being pretty much even money

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Speaker 1: there with Baylor, so we didn't get to really compound

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Speaker 1: on that. But they are minus ten versus Princeton, so

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Speaker 1: I am taking them on the spread there minus ten

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Speaker 1: as well. I think, Shawn, I believe you have it

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Speaker 1: at minus ten. I actually have it closer to minus

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half. But those are the two games

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Speaker 1: I've got there real quick, Sewna. I'd like to get

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on those two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a shame that, you know, Creighton's such

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Speaker 2: a massive favorite here, but you know, I love these

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Speaker 2: and love the idea. Definitely a redemption from last year,

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Speaker 2: but overall fantastic a job with this this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. That part of that was, you know, hoping Creighton

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Speaker 1: would get to face Arizona, but as we know, Princeton

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Speaker 1: upset Arizona, so that goes by the wayside. But Arkansas Yukon. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: I'll be okay either way personally in that game because

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Speaker 1: we got to roll it up. But then I know

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Speaker 1: you and I both have Yukon to the final four

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Speaker 1: in our brackets. So a little bit of hedge life there,

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Speaker 1: I guess. But that is going to do it for

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Speaker 1: the March Madness Sweet sixteen Player props, GIF and guide

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Speaker 1: episode on the Action Network Podcast. Make sure to find

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Speaker 1: more from Sean Kerner and myself on Action Network's website,

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Speaker 1: and don't forget to download the free award winning Action

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Speaker 1: Network app. While all of our prop picks and other picks,

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Speaker 1: Best of luck with all your bets this weekend and

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