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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now we start struggling. A really wonderful Friday

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Speaker 2: with Sebastian Page had a global multi asset share of

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Speaker 2: Asset Allocation Steering Committee. Tro Price acclaimed author the best

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Speaker 2: book on diversification I've seen in his new book is

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Speaker 2: out as well, The Psychology of Leadership. I want to

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Speaker 2: go to Jain's Nordvik. Damien came walking and screaming about

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Speaker 2: with exante data and the single sentence from ends into

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Speaker 2: the weekend is strategic shifts are in motion. What's in

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Speaker 2: motions page?

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Speaker 3: You know, the last forty eight hours, it's about the

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Speaker 3: thirty year bond and it's gone up above five percent.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a lot of hoopla about not much.

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Speaker 3: If I look at the long run chart, you know,

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Speaker 3: like Damien, it's a long weekend. I'm actually looking at

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Speaker 3: charts and I'm interested.

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Speaker 2: If look at the.

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Speaker 3: Long run chart of the thirty year yield, it's actually

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Speaker 3: not that far from five percent.

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Speaker 4: Right, Well, I mean look for me, I think Ira

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Speaker 4: Josie said it best our us SO chief rate strategist.

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Speaker 4: He said, you know, the mark to market loss of

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Speaker 4: putting a negative carried position on the thirty year. I mean,

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Speaker 4: if you think thirty years are going to go up

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Speaker 4: on austerity or whatever you're you know, whatever you're thinking.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's just it's not a profitable prese mean,

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Speaker 4: the negative tract.

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Speaker 2: This is great, But the real issue is why is

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Speaker 2: the dollar tanking? You know, on the what does trow

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Speaker 2: price say about a new structural week dollar?

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Speaker 3: So short term on our platform, we're C two on

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Speaker 3: the dollars. C two means we're actually bullish short term

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Speaker 3: on the dollar. But Tom, this is the question of

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Speaker 3: the hour because if you look at April right by

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Speaker 3: the way, the stock market was flat in April, or

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Speaker 3: close to flat, if you can believe it, despite what

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Speaker 3: happened during the month. But if you look at what's

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Speaker 3: been happening with the dollar, it's unusual. Because economic theory

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Speaker 3: will tell you when you put tariffs on the best

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Speaker 3: way for the exporting country to offset them is to

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Speaker 3: devalue their currency, so you cheapen their goods to make

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Speaker 3: up for the tariff that is paid at the quarter.

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Speaker 3: The market work, and for a while it looked like

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Speaker 3: economic theory was working and the dollar should be stronger.

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Speaker 3: But then it's not behaving that way. And second thing

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Speaker 3: is even in the middle of selloffs I think April, third,

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Speaker 3: and fourth and huge market volatility, as Tom would say,

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Speaker 3: you know on the Vick spikes, Well the dollar was

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Speaker 3: not necessarily the safe haven in all this volatility.

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Speaker 4: Well, Tom, I'm disappointed, and I'll tell you why, because

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Speaker 4: Sebastian came in this morning and it didn't bring in

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Speaker 4: LinkedIn sensation daughter Olivia, and you know, I'm disappointed that

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Speaker 4: she's not here, by the way, I know it's early.

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Speaker 4: First sherobably a school, but you know, Sebastian, you're going

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Speaker 4: to probably take Olivia to Europe. And I know one

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Speaker 4: of your trade calls right now is you're bullish on

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Speaker 4: international act I'm sorry, really European equities, let's be clear here,

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Speaker 4: and it's not because of the value component there. It's

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Speaker 4: because of the momentum of the dollar cell off.

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Speaker 2: So talk to us a little bit about that.

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Speaker 4: On a month of a month or quarter of Is

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Speaker 4: there some longevity to the styllar weakness on a quarter

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Speaker 4: of a quarter basis.

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Speaker 3: Here Damien love that question. Love even more of the

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Speaker 3: reference to our financial education video that I've been doing

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Speaker 3: with my daughter. They're all over LinkedIn loving have a look.

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Speaker 3: She's really interested about compound interests. By the way, behind

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Speaker 3: the scenes, she still wants to spend more than she

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Speaker 3: probably should. Look on Europe, we're long European equities. I

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Speaker 3: think this is a shorter term view for US six

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Speaker 3: to twelve months. Longer term. We're not in the camp.

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Speaker 3: I'm not in the camp of this is the end

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Speaker 3: of US exceptionalism. US tech is a force to.

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Speaker 5: Be reckoned with.

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Speaker 3: But right now there's still a valuation advantage for European equities,

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Speaker 3: even if you neutralize the sector effect. You have stimulus,

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Speaker 3: you have dovish central banks. You have a banking sector

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Speaker 3: that's doing pretty well now they've escaped.

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Speaker 2: What kind of European stocks I mean, are we buying

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Speaker 2: Nesle or we buying BMP Perry book.

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Speaker 3: So our stock pickers those that implement our slcation strategy,

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Speaker 3: like industrial healthcare and banks that banks are at one

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Speaker 3: time book one times book value. Before the financial crisis

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Speaker 3: in Europe there were two times book value. They struggled

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Speaker 3: limping out of the financial crisis and with negative interest rates,

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Speaker 3: that's not good for banks. Now we're in a positive

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Speaker 3: interest rate environment, they're still trending around one times book value.

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Speaker 3: So we like those.

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Speaker 4: So, Tom, you see what Impassion's done here. He's taken

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Speaker 4: what is effectively a value call, but he's wrapped it

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Speaker 4: up in a big fat momentum swing here in euro dollargy.

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Speaker 2: I agree that right back to what you were saying,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's a huge gamble about the momentum.

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Speaker 4: I mean it's it's not right now. I mean, look

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Speaker 4: at the euro relative to and by the way, I

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Speaker 4: mean it's on the i of the beholder, right. And

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Speaker 4: if you look at emerging market currencies, for example, nineteen

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Speaker 4: of twenty one of our versus you know, the dollar

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Speaker 4: this year, but only three are up versus the Euro

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Speaker 4: this year, So you're really leaning into the factor, at

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Speaker 4: least you know your your currency strategist are leaning into

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Speaker 4: the fact that you know there may be a little

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Speaker 4: bit of like again, some legs to this euro strength here,

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Speaker 4: just because it's the best of the of the rest.

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Speaker 3: I guess well Themian Bloomberg Surveillance Radio is the only

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Speaker 3: show where I can get a little bit more quantitative

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Speaker 3: and theoretical. That's why Tom is my absolute favorite host

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Speaker 3: and anchor.

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Speaker 2: Are okay you non linear right now?

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Speaker 3: Well, a lot of things are nonlinear in markets. Markets

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Speaker 3: are more nonlinear than they've been historically. If you look

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Speaker 3: at tails on both sides, the left side and the

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Speaker 3: right side, positive and negative. But what it's going to

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Speaker 3: say is valuation and momentum when they align together. Yes,

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Speaker 3: historically that is a much stronger signal than either signal

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Speaker 3: working alone, and that's been studied across markets.

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Speaker 2: We welcome all of you across the nation. Good morning

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Speaker 2: on Serious XM. I was lectured, did an event with Pimco.

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Speaker 2: It's a small startup money on the West coast. Sebastian

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Speaker 2: page of t row Price. How about those orioles that

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Speaker 2: endorsements really working out this year? Anyways, folks, good morning

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Speaker 2: across this Memorial Day nation. Damien Sassar and Time, can

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Speaker 2: we welcome you. I can't say enough on a sleepy

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Speaker 2: Friday as you get into the weekend, the markets are

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Speaker 2: not sleepy the dollar dynamics right now are extraordinary. Berry

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Speaker 2: King Green and Damien Sasa are in the eight o'clock

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Speaker 2: hour that got Ducky bumps over that on YouTube. Subscribe

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for that, just growing each

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Speaker 2: in every day. Damien sas are to Sebastian.

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Speaker 4: Page, well, I just think it's about growth expectations here

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Speaker 4: in the US, right, I mean, they really are falling.

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Speaker 4: I mean, and so you know, the question is how

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Speaker 4: far do they go or how far before the FED

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Speaker 4: catches up and wakes up to this. So I'm just

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Speaker 4: curious to hear what you know. Your great expectations are

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Speaker 4: for the great Fed expectations are sorry through the end

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Speaker 4: of this year, but more importantly in the first half

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Speaker 4: of now next year. It's just how deep do we

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Speaker 4: think the terminal FED funds rate can go?

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Speaker 3: You have to account for the possibility of an upside

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Speaker 3: surprise and inflation when you answer that question. It's not

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Speaker 3: just about growth. That's why it's tough to be the FED.

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Speaker 2: Right now, that's right, I'm going to stop the show, folks.

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Speaker 2: I'm interviewing Damian Sassar and Sebastian Page. Horse and cart

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Speaker 2: does inflation go up as the cart because the horse

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Speaker 2: is the dollar weaker, the debt and the deficit bigger.

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Speaker 2: How's that sequence work to get higher inflation.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'll hit that first, And it really comes down

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Speaker 4: to whether the hard data catches up to the soft

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Speaker 4: data and the resilience of the US economy and whether

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Speaker 4: or not this can all play through. And I don't

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Speaker 4: think we've really gotten a whiff of what a fourteen

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Speaker 4: and a half percent effective tariff rate, because that's what

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Speaker 4: we're talking about exxanthy right if you talk about China

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Speaker 4: forty percent plus the sectoral and that's up.

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Speaker 2: From two and a half percent from three to fourteen, right, right.

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Speaker 4: So I mean like, I don't I don't know what

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Speaker 4: that looks like, and I don't know what this US

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Speaker 4: economy looks like in that environment, and so what the

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Speaker 4: market I guess if I had to get asymmetric on you,

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Speaker 4: I think the asymmetry is to deeper cuts.

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Speaker 5: You know when they do.

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Speaker 2: Come Sebastian, Damian, Sebastian, I'll get they're both the great

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Speaker 2: tie up in Quebec. Sebastian, when when I did Quebec

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Speaker 2: go for Kearney, they sort of did. Didn't that Edmonton?

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Speaker 2: They did? Good morning Prime Minister Kearney Sebastian. Very importantly

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Speaker 2: here do the Americans get more inflation because of what

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Speaker 2: we see now in currencies and with the Build Better

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Speaker 2: America BBB bill and all.

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Speaker 3: It's part of it on imports. So you're today we're

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Speaker 3: running at two point four percent inflation. If you analyze

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Speaker 3: the monthly prints, that's not too bad. The one year

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Speaker 3: swap is looking at three point three. So the expectation

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Speaker 3: is that inflation's coming up. I think there's a risk

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Speaker 3: to the upside because of commodities. Some commodities are trending up,

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Speaker 3: precious metals and soft commodities because of wages.

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Speaker 2: About thirty three dollars.

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Speaker 4: Just the towers alone, right, it's you know, you would

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Speaker 4: know better than I. Just what is the impact of

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Speaker 4: these terror I mean, what is it going to do

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Speaker 4: to inflation? To prices here? I mean Walmart cost conounts,

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Speaker 4: is earnings next week? I mean we're not going to

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Speaker 4: get any look, but they're certainly going to, you know,

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Speaker 4: talk around some of that stuff. And it's just going

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Speaker 4: to be interesting to see you right in the especially

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Speaker 4: the input prices I mean and you know, all that

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Speaker 4: stuff is starting to trend to act.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So Tom, this is like we're having our mini

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Speaker 3: asset allocation committee here, because in our ass location committee

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Speaker 3: we have bulls and bears, and we have debate, and

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Speaker 3: now we're neutral or close to neutral between stocks and bonds.

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Speaker 3: But now Damien is sounding a bit bearish here, so

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Speaker 3: I'm going to give Devil's advocate the other side of it.

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Speaker 3: Earnings growing thirteen percent this quarter relative to the same

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Speaker 3: quarter last year. The FED more interested in cutting than hiking,

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Speaker 3: and growth, yes, is slowing, but most of it is

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Speaker 3: in the soft data. There's been a massive drop in

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Speaker 3: the soft data. But if you want to look at

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Speaker 3: one data point on hard data, I would look at claims,

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Speaker 3: and claims are still in the low two hundreds. People

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Speaker 3: are not getting fired, right.

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Speaker 2: We've heard this this week. I really can't say enough,

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Speaker 2: folks about the anecdote that we see that America is

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Speaker 2: vibrant and busy. At least the upper third of people

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Speaker 2: consuming is they can. There's a wonderful book out now,

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Speaker 2: The Psychology of Leadership by Sebastian Page. This comes after

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Speaker 2: his tour de force on All the Traps and pitfalls

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Speaker 2: of diversification for parents at home falling apart because the

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Speaker 2: Brady kids are getting ready for summer. What is the

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Speaker 2: psychology of leadership for parents to get through this summer

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Speaker 2: with teenagers?

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Speaker 3: You know I have two teenagers, so that question hits home.

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Speaker 2: Tom. I'll say to that question, I'll.

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Speaker 3: Say this, people underestimate how important it is to have

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Speaker 3: long term goals, to think long terms. And I think

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Speaker 3: that applies to the younger.

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Speaker 2: You got to give your kids the gift.

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Speaker 3: Of long term, the long term goal and thinking long

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Speaker 3: term and and guiding your actions day to day based

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Speaker 3: on what you're trying to do long term.

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Speaker 2: Is it okay that the older teenager walks in, says

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Speaker 2: nothing and closes the bedroom door discuss.

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Speaker 4: I mean, for me and my experiences, when you come

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Speaker 4: down to the kitchen and your daughter's they're eating, and

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Speaker 4: I say, oh, hey, what you eat and then she

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Speaker 4: goes stop badgaming me and she just runs out the door.

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Speaker 4: So I understand what you're talking about. And she's beautiful anyway,

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Speaker 4: don't get me started. But we all have our experiences there.

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Speaker 4: I think we have to take this back to the

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Speaker 4: job market, because you make a really, really really good point.

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Speaker 4: What will it takes a bashing page for payrolls to

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Speaker 4: come off here in the US? I mean what I

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Speaker 4: mean what and when? I mean like, when do you

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Speaker 4: if it were going to happen and we had to

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Speaker 4: play that scenario out, what should we be looking for?

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Speaker 5: What are the first indicators there?

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Speaker 3: So of the lagging labor market indicators, the least lagging

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Speaker 3: is the claims. So I would look at claims and

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Speaker 3: right now they're holding in.

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Speaker 2: Do you have a statistic on claims? Was a tip point?

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Speaker 2: Is it two sixty to eighty?

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Speaker 3: Look the long run app riche on claims is three fifty.

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Speaker 3: I know, so they can go higher. They can go higher,

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Speaker 3: But that is potentially the least lagging of the lagging

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Speaker 3: labor marketing. Edvans and oilers bullish on the Oilers, Sebastian

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Speaker 3: page of Quebec and sure book, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: He is the t road price.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Barry King Green at Berkeley Professor Ike and Green, thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. Barry, I've

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Speaker 2: got to go back to you start just staying in France,

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Speaker 2: and you must read for any kid getting into the game.

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Speaker 2: Exorbitant privilege is Donald Trump furtthering away. Our exorbitant privilege.

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Speaker 6: Is I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since

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Speaker 6: Liberation Day. It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly

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Speaker 6: than before. I've long thought that the dollar would have

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Speaker 6: to share the international stage with other currencies. I didn't

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Speaker 6: think that would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year.

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Speaker 2: What is so important here, Barry, is a legacy back

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Speaker 2: to the nineties of the unexpected. I was with you

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Speaker 2: at a G seven meeting in Singapore, hugely historic, a

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Speaker 2: lifetime ago. Then we were worried about the shadows in

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Speaker 2: the unexpected. Now Here in twenty twenty five, what is

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Speaker 2: the unexpected? You're studying at Berkeley. What's the surprise out

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Speaker 2: there that concerns you well?

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Speaker 6: I think that the markets have responded to the ninety

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Speaker 6: day pause in the UK deal by thinking that the

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Speaker 6: period of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you

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Speaker 6: said before, a few minutes ago. Tom, the uncertainty and

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Speaker 6: the spike in the VIX continue. We haven't really seen

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Speaker 6: that spill over into distress in financial markets, but I

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Speaker 6: think that distress could be coming. I think what's happening

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Speaker 6: in the cryptosphere could spill over and to mainstream financial markets.

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Speaker 6: There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized yet.

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Speaker 2: As very King Green looks at the long term, we

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Speaker 2: must consider the data check is Professor Eiching Green states

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Speaker 2: of vix's out now four big figures twenty four point

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Speaker 2: five four, the SPX futures in negative ninety three now

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Speaker 2: futures negative six twenty six, and dollars weaker. Barry a

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Speaker 2: privileged to bring you, Damien SaaS Hour of Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 2: truly expert on the interior dynamics of em currencies, Damien.

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Speaker 4: Professor Eicken Green, you discussed this world of international capital mobility,

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Speaker 4: and you know you talk about US its ability to

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Speaker 4: run trade deficits in order to provide foreign reserves to

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Speaker 4: the rest of the world. You know, just how much

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Speaker 4: longer can it continue to do that? I mean, and

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Speaker 4: what other currency might serve that role if the dollar

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Speaker 4: is no longer you know, as you rightly point out,

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Speaker 4: the world reserve currency.

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Speaker 6: We're accelerating toward the cliff where the appetite for US

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Speaker 6: free use abroad begins to cry up. I think we're

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Speaker 6: already seeing hints of that in financial markets, at which

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Speaker 6: point there will be a reluctance to acquire and hold

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Speaker 6: and use dollars by secral banks and other investors around

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Speaker 6: the world. But the answer to your second question, Damien,

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Speaker 6: who can step up to provide that international liquidity if

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Speaker 6: not the United States? The answer for the moment is

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Speaker 6: no one. That there aren't enough high quality eurosecurities available

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Speaker 6: to the rest of the world. China is still a

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Speaker 6: small player financially, despite all the chatter about it growing role.

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Speaker 6: Non traditional reserve currencies like the Aussie dollar and the

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Speaker 6: Canadian dollar too small to make a difference. So I

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Speaker 6: think we're staring down into the abyss of a global

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Speaker 6: liquidity shortage.

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Speaker 4: Professor I can Green. The dollar bulls would argue that

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Speaker 4: the US military comes into play when you're thinking about

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Speaker 4: the dollars reserve status. Talk to us about you know,

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Speaker 4: the fact that the last seventy five years we've been

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Speaker 4: free of war, there's been global financial security in the

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Speaker 4: form of dollar reserve assets. Talk to us about the

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Speaker 4: case for dollar bulls. Does it still hold up well?

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Speaker 6: For the last seventy five years, our alliance partners have

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Speaker 6: held and used dollars, partly as a show of thanks

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Speaker 6: of goodwill, partly because they believe the US will be

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Speaker 6: a reliable steward of their balances. Those alliances have been

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Speaker 6: called into question. When and whether the US military will

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Speaker 6: be deployed to defend our security partners is now up

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Speaker 6: in the air, so is the appetite for dollars.

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Speaker 2: Agreeing with us at Berkeley here on Global FX, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to turn to the US debt and deficit here

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Speaker 2: in a moment off of his iconic twenty twenty one

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Speaker 2: book on our Public Debt. But Barry, first, I have

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Speaker 2: to ask you, and I'm not going to say what's

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Speaker 2: a question you would ask god Besson. It's far beneath

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Speaker 2: you to act like a journalist. If you were at

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Speaker 2: the White House today or at Treasury, if you were

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Speaker 2: sitting there with a Secretary Treasury, what advice would you

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Speaker 2: give him? Given the president that he serves well.

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Speaker 6: Number one definitively takes some of the more hair brained

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Speaker 6: ideas off the table, taxing foreign holdings of US securities.

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Speaker 6: Number two get more serious about addressing the deficit problem,

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Speaker 6: which is getting worse rather than better. And number three

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Speaker 6: camp down the uncertainty around crede policy.

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Speaker 2: The golden fetters, globalizing cap I love Hall of Mirrors,

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Speaker 2: the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the uses and misuses

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Speaker 2: of history. But the book very I can greed to

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Speaker 2: stop me cold complete tangent. I thought in defense of

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Speaker 2: public debt. Everyone of every political persuasion is apoplectic right now.

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Speaker 2: It's the very log linear growth of our deficit and

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Speaker 2: our debt. Are we becoming japan Like? Are we reaching

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Speaker 2: a tipping point of too much debt, too much interest expense?

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Speaker 6: Yes, the tipping point is coming. That book made the

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Speaker 6: point that public debt can be useful in an emergency,

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Speaker 6: in a financial crisis, in a war, in a pandemic,

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Speaker 6: when you have to mobilize all available resources. But when

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Speaker 6: the emergency passes, you want to restore the government's capacity

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Speaker 6: to borrow in the future. And we did the first part.

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Speaker 6: We did not do the second.

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Speaker 4: Professor I can Green, my chief USA interest rate strategists,

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Speaker 4: Ira Jersey, and we were just talking, and he discusses

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Speaker 4: this new class of bond vigilantes that they're taking the reins,

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Speaker 4: that they're rebuking fiscal large ass that the psychology of

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Speaker 4: global government bond investors has shifted, and rather abruptly at that.

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Speaker 4: What are your thoughts there?

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Speaker 6: I think your interest rate strategists are exactly right. I

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Speaker 6: think the US government has had a lot of leewaight

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Speaker 6: incur debt to run deficits, the backdrop being that it

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Speaker 6: is going to remain financially reliable and prudent in the

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Speaker 6: longer run, and there is no evidence of the latter.

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Speaker 6: There is no strategy for stabilizing the debt to GDP

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Speaker 6: ratio and bringing down the deficits. So I think investors

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Speaker 6: are really looking at treasuries in a very different way

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Speaker 6: than they have in the past.

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Speaker 2: Professor Aiki, We've got to move to the markets of

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Speaker 2: folks who are blowing up the show. Given everything we see,

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Speaker 2: I can grieve driving the vix out to a five

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Speaker 2: handle twenty five point one four, the dowdown six hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty points. Barry Ike and Green and Ken Rogoff

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Speaker 2: mentions you in my book of the Summer our dollar

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Speaker 2: your problem. He mentions Ike and Green, like two thirds

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Speaker 2: of the way through the book, where did our moral

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Speaker 2: compass go, the calvinistic heritage of this nation to at

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Speaker 2: least try to pay our bills in God's name? Barry,

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Speaker 2: Ike and Green, where did that drift to? Well?

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Speaker 6: I think it's drifted into the land of non facts,

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Speaker 6: where everyone can any everyone can assert what they want

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Speaker 6: about the state of the national finances. The Congressional Budget Office,

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Speaker 6: which states the truth or the closest to reality we have,

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Speaker 6: doesn't carry the weight on Capitol Hill or in the

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Speaker 6: White House that it deserves that it should.

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Speaker 2: Verry, I can mean honored to have you today. Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for joining Bloomberg, and we are fortunate

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Speaker 2: to have you on this today of market crisis. Professor

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Speaker 2: Eichingreen at the University of California at Berkeley.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: We try to find a sense of calm with Emily Rowland.

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Speaker 2: She agreed to come on if I wouldn't mention the

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Speaker 2: Boston Red Sox, where thrilled she could join us from

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Speaker 2: the John Hancock Company. This morning, Emily, the panic here

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Speaker 2: over the weekend at kitchens at barbecues is going to

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Speaker 2: be sell US big stocks like Tariff, Layden, Apple. You disagree.

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Speaker 7: You know, when we think about what's going on with

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Speaker 7: markets right now, Tom, investors are really trading on feelings

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Speaker 7: and not facts. This is a sentiment driven market, whether

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Speaker 7: it's sell everything US, whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But

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Speaker 7: when you look underneath the hood at the facts, earnings

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Speaker 7: growth most importantly to US and the US. We just

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Speaker 7: saw Q one earnings come in at fourteen percent. Nine

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Speaker 7: percent is what analysts are penciling in for the year.

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Speaker 7: You look over at Europe, earnings growth this quarter was

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Speaker 7: negative eight percent, and analysts are revising down earnings estimates

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Speaker 7: to around three percent in Europe. You look at the front,

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Speaker 7: the macro backdrop, and the United States growth is holding

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Speaker 7: in the city economic Surprise index is actually perking up.

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Speaker 7: The hard data is coming in positive. We're seeing the

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Speaker 7: opposite happen in Europe as their data is coming in.

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Speaker 7: Weaker growth is struggling overseas. Yet you've seen this massive

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Speaker 7: capital rotation out of the US into Europe. We would

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Speaker 7: fade it and use those proceeds to invest in the

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Speaker 7: United States.

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Speaker 2: It's so opposite. So many of the actually think she

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Speaker 2: actually thinks the reds sucks are going to win ten

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Speaker 2: in a row in August.

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Speaker 4: You know, And I got to ask you, and I

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Speaker 4: just said it before. Two to three cuts are pricing

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Speaker 4: before the end of the year by the Fed. And

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Speaker 4: the Fed's made no secret about its asymmetric view on

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Speaker 4: policy rates and inflation. Is there a possibility that the

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Speaker 4: Fed can move more aggressively before the end of this year.

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Speaker 7: Well, I probably not, especially given some of the fiscal

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Speaker 7: developments that we've seen. I think one reason that the

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Speaker 7: bond market is repriced for fewer rate cuts this year

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Speaker 7: is because now we may have this fiscal thrust coming

435
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 7: through as a result of this big, beautiful bill that's

436
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 7: potentially coming through Washington. So the more fiscal stimulus you

437
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 7: need to do, are that your plan to do the

438
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,479
Speaker 7: less monetary policy stimulus that you need to do. So

439
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 7: we're seeing a big shift on that front, and I

440
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 7: think that probably pushes out the FED to later in.

441
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 2: The year and the big beautiful Bill. Margaret Brennan of

442
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 2: CBS still scheduled to be with us at the top

443
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 2: of the nine o'clock. Our Craig Moffatt on Apple will

444
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 2: be with us. He's been canscious. Mike Green will join us.

445
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 2: Some simplified asset management as well. Damien, please to Emily.

446
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: Rowland, Emily, US GDP growth expectations have fallen off a cliff.

447
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 4: I mean talking looking just at Q four our year

448
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 4: over year, I mean, my goodness, I mean it just

449
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 4: fell off a cliff here. And so I'm just curious

450
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: to hear your thoughts about the dollar. I mean, what

451
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 4: are your thoughts on the dollar here? I mean, what

452
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 4: are you guys seeing on a forward basis? I mean,

453
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 4: is the end of the dollar's hege money at risk here?

454
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 7: No, we don't believe in the death of the US dollar.

455
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 7: That narrative does tend to resurface every few years. The

456
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 7: dollars still the world's reserve currency. We've seen this really

457
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 7: notable dynamic where yields have backed up at the same

458
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 7: time that the dollars weekend. That almost never happens, and

459
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 7: I think it is a result of the sentiment around

460
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 7: sell everything America.

461
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 5: With the US.

462
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 7: I'm not saying we're great, but we're sort of the

463
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 7: cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry. From an economic growth

464
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 7: perspective here, that should actually bring a flood of dollars

465
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 7: onto our shores. Other central banks are cutting the US

466
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 7: is on hold for now. All of those traditional dynamics

467
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 7: that we look at suggest that the dollar should not

468
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 7: be experiencing weakness, and that line.

469
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: That optimism is like what you would hear from Bill Gross,

470
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 2: the founder of PIMCO. He used to love to talk

471
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: about the cleaner shirt. And the other thing I would say,

472
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 2: Emily to your Boston college is one Pte Lynch at

473
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: Fidelity years ago said you have to stay the course,

474
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: explained people petrified or bewildered or confused, how to not

475
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 2: panic and take the four to oh one k to cash.

476
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 7: It's so important. Peter Lynch lives right down the street

477
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 7: from me here, and another great investor, of course, Warren Buffett,

478
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 7: said recently, just don't bet against America. When you think

479
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 7: about the incredible innovation that these companies in the United

480
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 7: States have. We have a massive overweight to high quality companies.

481
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 7: A lot of those are found in the US technology space.

482
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 7: And when we think about what really drives markets over time,

483
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 7: I think one of the most important things to remember

484
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 7: is stock prices follow profit. We are investing in companies,

485
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 7: not countries, and we want to think about where can

486
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 7: you find that earnings growth engine. And as we look

487
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 7: across the world, we're still finding in the US. Yes,

488
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 7: sentiment can be a powerful force over time. Momentum can

489
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 7: be a powerful force over short periods of time. We

490
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 7: do not use momentum and sentiment in our investment process.

491
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 7: We use cycle analysis, we use fundamental analysis, and right

492
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 7: now we want to gravitate to those high quality companies,

493
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 7: most of them are found in the United States.

494
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: Emily Roland, thank you so much.

495
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

496
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Colock Play, and

497
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. You can also

498
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 1: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on

499
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal.

500
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 6: We get a.

501
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: Huge response when Joel Lavorgna joins us. There's just no

502
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 2: other way. Thank you so much for thanking time this morning. Short,

503
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: did you speak to the president last night?

504
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 5: I have not.

505
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 8: No, I haven't, but thank you for having me, and.

506
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 5: We have a lot to talk about.

507
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: We have a lot to talk about. Help me here,

508
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 2: Joe Lavorna, with the presumption of our global Wall Street

509
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 2: listeners worldwide across this nation, that Besson will walk back

510
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: the president's enthusiasms. Is that a strategy.

511
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 8: The president has a negotiating strategy which I would argue

512
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 8: has been largely successful.

513
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 5: We probably will disagree on this.

514
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: Ratings folks not known CNN had this. Thank you CNN.

515
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 2: His ratings have gone up in the last ten days.

516
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 8: Well, I'll actually you know me, well, I will say

517
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 8: something else. If you look at the polling Tom polling

518
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 8: that's been good in sixteen, twenty and twenty four take

519
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 8: Rafts Mussin for example, Pauling as of last night had

520
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 8: the economy moving in the right direction at its highest

521
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 8: reading in sixteen years.

522
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of good stuff here.

523
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 8: So I don't think there's a you cried, Well, this

524
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 8: is a negotiation and the intent and desire is to

525
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 8: read on shore and manufacturing high value out of here,

526
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 8: So that will ultimately be the President's the president's decision,

527
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 8: and Secretary Best will follow that.

528
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: Joe, Damian wants to get inbod I got to follow

529
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: that up as well. So we have a negotiating tactic

530
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 2: the Secretary Treasure with David Weston here in exactly two hours.

531
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 2: And then do you just presume there'll be some make

532
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: nice nice delay where we get a sixty day ninety

533
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 2: day delay.

534
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 8: Maybe, or there'll be a deal tom there'll be a

535
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 8: deal that come on. Well, let me say a framework,

536
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 8: because people talked about the deals.

537
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 5: I got all this pushback to President's not going to pivot.

538
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 5: You can't get a deal done. It's a framework for

539
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 5: a discussion.

540
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 8: I'm optimistic that it will be resolved in the US's advantage.

541
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: Should I define framework for you? A framework is where

542
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: you're in negotiations to get afterthought, to empty the dishwasher.

543
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: That's what a framework is.

544
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 4: Joe, I'd love to get your opinion on the dollar

545
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 4: as the world reserve currency. And the reason I ask

546
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 4: it is this. I actually had long been a proponent

547
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 4: of the thing that you know, the dollar. It's almost

548
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 4: a bad thing for the Fed. It almost makes the

549
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 4: Fed have to make decisions that are not necessarily based

550
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 4: on the US economy alone, but the rest of the

551
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 4: world writ large because of the dollars influenced the world's

552
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 4: reserve currency. Now that it seems to be and again

553
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 4: I'm not calling for the end of king dollar, but

554
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 4: you know, some of the shine seems to be rubbing

555
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 4: off of it. Here do we think does the president

556
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,959
Speaker 4: does the administration think that a weaker dollar is good

557
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 4: for America?

558
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 8: The administration does not want to lose this reserve status,

559
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 8: and certain instances the dollar is artificially high visa these

560
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 8: certain countries, but in general no. I think if strong

561
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 8: dollar is reflective of the fact the US is basically

562
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 8: the strongest industrial economy in the world from a GDP perspective. Perspective, however,

563
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 8: your Bloomberg audience and Tom Kean will love this. The

564
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 8: problem with the FED is this abundant reserve approach to

565
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 8: operating monetary policy.

566
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 5: We've got abundant reserves.

567
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 8: I would move away from that and go back to

568
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 8: the older system with the balance sheets smaller.

569
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 2: Joeli Varna with this with SMBC Nico Securities part of

570
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 2: the Sumatoma Group of Japan, I can talk about Jamands

571
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: here in with this Damien Sasa this morning. Welcome across

572
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: the nation. The doubt negative. My eyes are family, Damon, Yeah,

573
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: I think it's negative three thirty seven.

574
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 4: Right now, DJ, I mean we have to ask you

575
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 4: about Japan, the boj's role in the global financial system,

576
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: the systemic risk of it being the net creditor to

577
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 4: the rest of the world. And you know now what

578
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 4: we're seeing with inflation ticking up in Japan. Do you

579
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 4: think there's any real risk that a lot of that

580
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: those offshore holdings are going to need to be repatriated

581
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 4: on shore now now?

582
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 8: And you don't see I mean, because well we were

583
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 8: worried about Taiwan a few weeks ago. It's a nice

584
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 8: Bloomberg article. I give you guys a plug. And how

585
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 8: long did that last? There was issues last summer, was

586
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 8: on why we had a big move in the nick

587
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 8: I and JG B eials. By the way, j G

588
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 8: B eyals had been leading this recent rise higher, but

589
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 8: it's also been globally, which is also like want to

590
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 8: push back against the narrative that the market's selling off.

591
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 8: By the way, the market's exactly where it was a

592
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 8: week ago before the Moody's downgrade.

593
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 5: The surprise downgrade.

594
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 8: But this isn't about the budget being big and causing

595
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 8: the market to sell off. So again the narrative I

596
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 8: think is incorrect. But no, I'm not worried about systemic issues.

597
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: And why are we worried about the budget then.

598
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 8: Because that's just that's just the easy, low hanging fruit,

599
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 8: simple narrative that people don't really have to think.

600
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 2: Center GDP, I mean we on equivalent debt and deficit.

601
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 8: The well, the thing is the numbers that are coming

602
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 8: from CBO. Moodies apparently use CBO's numbers. Citizens sure it

603
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 8: can be for a responsible budget. They all use the

604
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 8: same numbers. I don't think they're correct. I mentioned this

605
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 8: maybe the last time in that's all.

606
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: The present, that CEO's data is not correct.

607
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 8: That the forecasts are unbelievably pessimistic assuming one point eight

608
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 8: percent GDP growth the next ten years.

609
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: So as Malpass would say, it's the growthiness that's not

610
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: in there. Granted you can't predict the growthiness, but you're

611
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 2: saying we're going to have a sustained growth rate to

612
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 2: get us through.

613
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 8: Well, let's say let's say we had growth at say

614
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 8: two and a half percent. That's I think we could

615
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 8: be three, but let's say two and a half. That's

616
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 8: an extra two trillion revenue to tariffs. They're going to

617
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 8: raise two hundred billion this year. That's going to account

618
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 8: for something over the next handful of years that won't

619
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 8: even be in the numbers because it's not part of

620
00:31:58,240 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 8: the official scoring.

621
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 2: I'm going to say, everybody listening, whatever your political persuasion,

622
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: this is a really, really valid study away from the

623
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: debt gloom. Do you grow your way out of the

624
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: problem that's worked for a few decades to.

625
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 5: Say it worked in the late nineties.

626
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Damien.

627
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 4: Well Joe, I mean I have to ask you about

628
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 4: the disconnect between the alt from the hard data here

629
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 4: in the US and whether or not you think there's

630
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 4: you know, something coming around the next corner. Do you

631
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 4: know what I'm saying there? I mean, I know, this

632
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,239
Speaker 4: US economy has been exceptional, it really has been. I

633
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 4: know it's resilient, it really has been. Earnings have been

634
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 4: super resilient, and I agree with all of it, and

635
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 4: it can continue. But I mean, you know the whispers

636
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 4: that the hard data is going to catch up to

637
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 4: this drop in sentiment. I mean, do you believe in

638
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 4: that or do we have it reversed? I mean it's

639
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: the yeah, so I would say. So what I did

640
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 4: is I went back and looked.

641
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 8: Because the weak data was telling us recession in twenty

642
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 8: two and twenty three, it didn't happen. And then some

643
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 8: of the data recently has suggested the same. I remember that,

644
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 8: so of course, so I what I did is I

645
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 8: went back to look, let's look at some of the harder,

646
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 8: high frequency data. How did that perform in twenty two

647
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 8: and twenty three. What's it look like now? Is saying recession?

648
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 8: No change to our sales are strong, motor vehicle gasoline

649
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 8: demand is strong.

650
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: We've heard this joke.

651
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 5: Yes, you've heard this claim. So no, I don't.

652
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 8: The hard data will turn sorry the week data.

653
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 5: The soft data rather will turn up. Hard data will

654
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 5: stay firm.

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00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: On a Friday for Global Wall Street, a great lineup

656
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: in the back half of our Joelivorna with us with

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00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: SNBC Nico.

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00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

659
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

660
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

661
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

662
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

663
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: With Lisa Mateo.

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00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 9: The newspapers, Okay, let's switch gears.

665
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 8: Totally.

666
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, this one's in the Wall Street Journal. So you guys,

667
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 9: we've heard a lot of stories about college players making

668
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 9: big money playing sports like basketball, football, right, but not

669
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 9: sports like golf, tennis. Softball is a big one.

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00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 6: Okay.

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00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 9: We now have softball's first million dollar pitcher.

672
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 6: Wow getting paid.

673
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: She's getting million?

674
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 5: No, I wish, but it could.

675
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 9: Be the last one. So let me get so. Her

676
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 9: name is Niejerray Kennedy. I hope I'm not mispronouncing that.

677
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 9: I'm sorry if I am. She was pitching for Stanford

678
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 9: but transferred to Texas Tech, who's booster collective paid her

679
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 9: one million dollars.

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00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: I believe.

681
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 9: But here's it could be the last because there's this

682
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 9: new set of rules that could restrict how much boosters

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00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 9: can pay college athletes. It's likely to come in the

684
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 9: coming days, but it's for for low priles profile sports.

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00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business Stores. Damian comment on this, With all the

686
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: work you do with Scarlett.

687
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 4: The average NBA WNBA player gets paid one hundred and

688
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 4: forty seven and fifty dollars a year. That's a w

689
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 4: NBA professional basketball player. And you're telling me this college

690
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 4: wonderful softball.

691
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 2: Tillion dollars just tied into Vanderbilt in Miami. Do you

692
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: see name image like this school like Vanderbilt absolutely everywhere.

693
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 4: I mean, the rumors are Cooper Flagg got paid, you know,

694
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 4: a couple million dollars to play for Duke last year.

695
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 4: You know, we got get Paul Sweeni back in here.

696
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 4: But you know that's that's what you're up, the endorsement kind.

697
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 2: Of we're going to interrupt newspapers right now. Lisa, you're

698
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,479
Speaker 2: living this in real time for our audience across this nation.

699
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: You have a gifted daughter. You're living it. Do you

700
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: think this trickles down from ten famous schools like Texas

701
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: Tech and Stanford to one hundred and two hundred and

702
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 2: three hundred other schools.

703
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 9: I've just seen like the pressure on the young kids,

704
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 9: like all the pressure they have now, like oh, I

705
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 9: have to perform, Like I got to post this on

706
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 9: social media.

707
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 5: I gotta post this.

708
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: You have a batting in your backyard?

709
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 5: I do, yeah, I know, I know.

710
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 9: All the extra coaching sessions.

711
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 8: Yeah, I know, I know.

712
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 9: Okay, happy Hour, It's Friday, right, Okay, memorial.

713
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 2: Were coming up? Continue?

714
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,919
Speaker 9: Okay, So in these stories of people drinking less more,

715
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 9: people ordering mocktails, Okay, that's the hot new thing. But

716
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 9: a lot of those people are starting to go plane.

717
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 9: There's just too much. They're paying fifteen dollars for juice

718
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 9: and soda and sero, and they're saying, what's going on?

719
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 9: And I get it because we go to the bar,

720
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 9: the restaurant and I order a mocktail for my daughter.

721
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 9: I'm paid fifteen dollars for it. My drink costs lesson

722
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 9: and had alcohol in it.

723
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 2: What's going on?

724
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 4: I don't think my wife would like me very much

725
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 4: if I participated and drive you liar sober October? Are

726
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 4: you really doing? I don't think she'd be able to

727
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 4: put up with me.

728
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: Can slip one more? I can?

729
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 5: Okay.

730
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 9: So the Mission Impossible Final Reckoning that comes out today,

731
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 9: too big, you know, movie weekend for the holidays. Tom

732
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 9: Cruise actually really did get an aircraft carrier for the mission.

733
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 9: The Pentagon granted him his crew access to the USS

734
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 9: George H. W.

735
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 5: Bush.

736
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 9: For the movie, they spend like three days on it,

737
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 9: so it's a really incredible.

738
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

739
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

740
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter, and on Bloomberg dot com,

741
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the bloom Business app.

742
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

743
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal