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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pop All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the kick as block the college football were stundar.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he stumbled, and football the latter of

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Speaker 2: turn a counter on the inside.

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Speaker 1: Don't you believe I'm not.

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Speaker 2: Gonna table off the field to night. It's not the

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Speaker 2: size of the dog in the fighting, it's the size

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Speaker 2: of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast. This is the Week thirteen college football

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm stucky in joining me as a my

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Speaker 1: fellow BBOC co host Colin Wilson. Colin is just looking

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Speaker 1: over your card some of the marquee games, including the

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Speaker 1: first two that we're going to cover here. I think

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Speaker 1: we're going to be head to head in a couple

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Speaker 1: Oh my god. We haven't been in the past couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, so I'm excited to get in to these games.

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Speaker 1: We'll hit I don't know, twenty twenty five games in

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Speaker 1: total as always, But before we get started here, got

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Speaker 1: a couple questions on Twitter about this. Today we will

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Speaker 1: roll out our regular college hoops episodes in the weeks

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Speaker 1: ahead with our old friends at the Three Man Weave.

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Speaker 1: They'll start beginning in December, and then I'll be getting

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Speaker 1: involved as always starting in early January. But for those

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Speaker 1: looking to bet on the big Thanksgiving Week tournaments next

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Speaker 1: week Malley Invitational and all of the other games during

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Speaker 1: Feast week, we'll have a very quick special bonus episode

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Speaker 1: releasing on Sunday with Mike Calabrese and the one and

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Speaker 1: only Tanne McGrath covering those games. Basketball coverage right around

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Speaker 1: the corner, But we have a lot of college football

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Speaker 1: still to get to, so let's jump right into it.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for Week thirteen.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Indiana at Ohio State. Ohio State, Oh,

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Speaker 1: this slumber really got popped down to spending. Where your

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Speaker 1: bet eleven and a half twelve and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: I dug into this game for a very long time.

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Speaker 1: I'm trusting Signetti. I'm one of the Hoosiers.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, Kurt Signettietti. Nothing gets people excided like winning.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty simple. I win google me. It's a tough

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Speaker 1: game to handicap because Indiana hasn't played anybody, but you

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Speaker 1: can adjust for opponent. Look what they've done. They've dominated

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Speaker 1: almost everyone they've played. People are pointing at one half

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Speaker 1: against Michigan in the second half, I've done that. I

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Speaker 1: think I went back and watched that they had a

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Speaker 1: fumble thrown tents right out of two drops. I think

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Speaker 1: they just got really conservative. The offensive line is what

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Speaker 1: I'm worried about here, and their left guard is out

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Speaker 1: for the year, and their offense line has been really

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Speaker 1: good all year. The left guard's out, they had a

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Speaker 1: multi year jame you starter slid in and you know,

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Speaker 1: he allowed a couple more pressures than the original starter

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Speaker 1: had allowed all year. I'll be watching that offensive line

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Speaker 1: closely early on. But Indiana coming off of bye Signetti gon.

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Speaker 1: I love their coordinators. I love Signetti. They're gonna have

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Speaker 1: a really good game plan here, and they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: playing Signet's gonna playing the disrespect card for two weeks.

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Speaker 1: National media trashing Indiana and their schedule. And what really

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Speaker 1: put me over the hump here is after diving deep

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Speaker 1: into the Indiana defense and the Ohio State offense, particularly

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Speaker 1: their offensive line. I already lost their left tackle now

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Speaker 1: at practice this week. You lose your starting center to

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Speaker 1: a torn achilles, probably gonna slide your guard over to

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Speaker 1: center and then bring in a reserve of guard who

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Speaker 1: I don't think is very good. Ohio State is one

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Speaker 1: of the best rosters, if not the best, in college football.

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Speaker 1: The one position they couldn't really afford injuries was along

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Speaker 1: the offensive line. They don't have great depth there. And

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Speaker 1: even further than that, the two positions were left tackle

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Speaker 1: and center. So now you're gonna be reshuffling your offensive

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Speaker 1: line again, multiple new guys. That's a problem against this

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Speaker 1: Indian Camara and this Indiana defensive line that can get

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Speaker 1: into the backfield. They just cause a lot of issues

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Speaker 1: for opposing offensive lines. So I don't think Ohio States

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Speaker 1: can be able to run the ball here. And then

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Speaker 1: I think Indiana's able to get pressure on Howard, and

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Speaker 1: Howard is not great under pressure. Also, something to keep

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Speaker 1: in mind, there could be a little weather here. Ohio

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Speaker 1: State's a snail. They're so slug it's very bizarre. They're

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Speaker 1: so slow under Kelly a possession or two. And then

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Speaker 1: on top of all that, Indiana knows the margin matters.

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Speaker 1: So even if they're getting blown out here, if they're

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Speaker 1: down seventeen, if they're down twenty late, they're gonna keep pushing.

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Speaker 1: It's not like a regular doll. Oh we're down and

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Speaker 1: Ohio State doesn't care about margin here. They have Michigan

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Speaker 1: on deck. They win. You know they're gonna play at

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Speaker 1: Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. I think Indiana's legit.

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Speaker 1: I'm trusting in Signetti. I think the Ohio State offensive

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Speaker 1: line is going to be a major problem here. Give

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Speaker 1: me the who who hoosiers and the points. I think

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Speaker 1: we're going head to head here. Yeah, you like to

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Speaker 1: go down state.

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Speaker 2: It depends on how many points you're getting. I think

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Speaker 2: we got a market a I was gonna. I was happy.

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Speaker 2: I got my eleven and a half, got up to thirteen.

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Speaker 2: Now we're back down to eleven and a half and

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Speaker 2: a couple of Sharper books.

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Speaker 1: So that's create it at I have thirteen, but you

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Speaker 1: have eleven and a half. Yeah, so what about a twelve?

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Speaker 2: I had to add it twelve, the key number of twelve. Sure,

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Speaker 2: put it on the board against each other. I think

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Speaker 2: you know I wrote this up for action, so everybody

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Speaker 2: can go read like every the data dump that I

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Speaker 2: did on these two teams, and the more I kept digging,

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Speaker 2: the more I was led to Ohio State, Which is

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Speaker 2: weird because I think I've been the biggest Ohio State

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Speaker 2: hater this entire season. I think what you need to

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Speaker 2: know is that both of these offense are really heavy

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Speaker 2: on rush attempts. With chip Kelly Signettes's offense, both offenses

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Speaker 2: use a heavy amount of inside zone. Curtis Rourke, fully

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Speaker 2: healthy after the fingernail surgery, should be a factor in

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Speaker 2: the run game. They kind of protected him from running.

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to be full go here. With

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Speaker 2: Tyson Latt and Justice Ellison, they both have nine t

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Speaker 2: d's a piece on the ground. Ellison's been more elusive

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Speaker 2: three point eight yards after first contact. But when you

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Speaker 2: look at Jim noles Nickel defense shut down Penn State's

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Speaker 2: rushing attack that used a wide variety of run concepts,

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Speaker 2: you know there's some things about the rush de you

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Speaker 2: kind of question, But when you look and see what

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Speaker 2: Indiana does from an inside zone perspective, you know that

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Speaker 2: Ohio State can defend that. They are much better against

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Speaker 2: outside zone sixty percent success, but there's still fifty three

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Speaker 2: percent success rate against inside zones, so I do expect

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Speaker 2: there to be advantages for Ohio State here. There's a

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Speaker 2: heavy amount of man coverage for Rourke here. Jim Knowles

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Speaker 2: is forty percent of coverage snaps running man here. He

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Speaker 2: will mix in a little Cover one, Cover three. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit different than what Roorke has

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Speaker 2: seen in the past and third down attempts and known

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Speaker 2: passing downs from a coverage look that he's going to

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Speaker 2: see here. Really what made it on this side of

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Speaker 2: the ball for me stuck that box score for Indiana

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Speaker 2: against Michigan, particularly in the second half, really shed some

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Speaker 2: light on the strength of this Indiana defense. Three yards

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Speaker 2: per carry in twenty four attempts. The Wolverine stuffed forty

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Speaker 2: six percent of rushing attempts by Indiana. That Michigan defense

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Speaker 2: had their way with that Indiana offensive line passing downs

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Speaker 2: only a twenty nine percent success rate in twenty one attempts.

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Speaker 2: They were behind schedule against Michigan. Indiana failed to create

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Speaker 2: a methodical drive against Michigan's defense. They didn't have a

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Speaker 2: single drive with ten or more plays and Here's what

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Speaker 2: really solidified it for me. For Ohiose on this side

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Speaker 2: of the ball, Michigan is subpar in defending inside zone.

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Speaker 2: They are only forty seven percent of success right on

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Speaker 2: the year. They shut down Indiana's rushing attack. When I

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Speaker 2: go to the other side of the ball, I've got

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Speaker 2: problems with this secondary. I think Will Howard could have

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Speaker 2: a big day here. He's had two consecutive games without

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Speaker 2: a turnover worthy play, his biggest rushing attempts of coming

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Speaker 2: against Oregony at nine against Penn Stateia at eleven. I

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Speaker 2: think his wheels are going to be a factor. One

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Speaker 2: stat bothers me about Indiana outside the top fifty in

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Speaker 2: creating a contested catch. I think that's going to be

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Speaker 2: a huge problem here against Ohio State. When they do

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Speaker 2: elect to pass Indiana's fortieth and defensive finishing drives, that

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Speaker 2: scares me. One thing that you can count on for

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Speaker 2: Indiana is they are going to score, and I think

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Speaker 2: they're going to have chances to score. I think there's

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Speaker 2: over potential here, particularly because Ryan Dave mentioned and as

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Speaker 2: presser that we're worried about broken tackles. Well, if you

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Speaker 2: look at Ohio State they're eighty ninth. Then broken tackles allowed.

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Speaker 2: If you look at Indiana all their skill positions, they're

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Speaker 2: thirty third and creating broken tackles. So I do think

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Speaker 2: there could be a busted player too that gets Indiana

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Speaker 2: on the board. But there's just way too much. I'm

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Speaker 2: taking Ohio State here. Nobody flinched.

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Speaker 1: I'm against you in every way. I actually le Neander too.

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Speaker 1: I think this would be a really slow paced game.

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Speaker 1: But I look look, I know Indiana schedule iss bad,

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Speaker 1: but look at the common opponents. Ohio State should have

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Speaker 1: lost in Nebraska at home. Indiana beat them fifty six

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Speaker 1: to seven. Northwestern at home Ohio State. Well, I was

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Speaker 1: in Wrigley. Ohio State won thirty one seven. They got

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Speaker 1: a one yard touchdown drive. Northwestern zero for three in

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Speaker 1: the red zone like no points. Indiana on the road

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Speaker 1: forty one twenty four in that game and Michigan State.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State won thirty eight to seven. Indiana won forty

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Speaker 1: seven to ten. Ohio State red zone aggression is coming

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Speaker 1: head to head on the first game, I'm riding with signetti.

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Speaker 2: Oh downie boy.

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Speaker 1: The pipes slap pipe sock from Landswood LONDWN the Mountains,

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Speaker 1: Army Notre Dame in primetime, neutral site in Yankee Stadium.

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Speaker 1: Pretty while we have two undefeated teams at this point

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Speaker 1: in the season that are catching double digits off of

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Speaker 1: a bye Notre Dame fourteen and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: I'm riding with Army. Thought I was going to be

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Speaker 1: on Notre Dame, but I dug in and I like Army.

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Speaker 1: Number one simple handicap catching over two touchdowns. I always

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Speaker 1: talk about that's the key number with the Service Academy,

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Speaker 1: get me over two touchdowns. Service game is catching over

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns since two thousand and five, forty four, twenty

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Speaker 1: six and two against the spread sixty three percent, covering

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Speaker 1: by five points per game. Army in particular sixty six percent.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, you could say, look Nate Notre Dame blew

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Speaker 1: out Navy earlier this season, which is true, maybe had

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Speaker 1: six turnovers and Navy's quarterback got hurt in that game

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Speaker 1: or got hurt his thumb. I don't think that's gonna

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Speaker 1: happen here. This game is gonna be super slow paced.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Army is the slowest team in the country.

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Speaker 1: Notreed is super slow and I have Army Power raided

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Speaker 1: better than Navy, and I couldn't get over two touchdowns

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Speaker 1: with Navy against Notre Dame. And I look at this

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame team. Yes, they've been just blowing out everybody,

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Speaker 1: but who have they played? I mean, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about Army schedule. Armies played nobody since losing

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Speaker 1: the Northern Illinois and by the way, Northern Northern Illinois

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Speaker 1: Army are very similar. Here's who Notre Dame's played, Perdue, Miama, Ohio, Louisville.

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Speaker 1: They should have lost that game. They're outplayed in that

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Speaker 1: game at home Stanford with a backup quarterback. I believe

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Speaker 1: Georgia Tech with a backup quarterback, and that game was

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Speaker 1: closer than the final score indicated. Navy with six turnovers,

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Speaker 1: the Corps of Florida State, and then Virginia where they

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Speaker 1: get twenty eight points in the first half off of

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Speaker 1: five Virginia turnovers. A lot of those who can't run

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Speaker 1: the ball at all, and Notre Dame's run defensive metrics

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Speaker 1: a little shaky. I think Army can control the ball

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Speaker 1: here short in this game, there's going to be I think,

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Speaker 1: just in a school amount of possessions Army off of

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Speaker 1: the buy. I like them here. I think I think

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Speaker 1: there's noted ame teams at the peak of its market.

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Speaker 1: And you might say that's the case with Army two.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted over two touchdowns. Give me Army to

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Speaker 1: stay within the number here.

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Speaker 3: I'm multi two little song, I wrote, deo, have many Army?

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Speaker 1: How many armymy me? I mean imy ony, imy, imy homy,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna go ahead to head, we go on ahead

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Speaker 1: to edd here, I'll you can call it at fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm looking at one of the Sharper books

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Speaker 2: right now that's laying minus fourteen and a half minus

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Speaker 2: one oh four, so you should be able to get

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Speaker 2: fourteen and one to twenty or better. I think it's

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Speaker 2: going to be an absolute bludgety. Army strength of schedules

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty third the toughest defenses they've gone

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Speaker 2: up against. Who here Rice ECU Air Force. When you

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Speaker 2: look at Army's offense, they're no longer really a triple

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Speaker 2: option offense. They run the same rate of man and

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Speaker 2: outside zone run concepts than they do out of the

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Speaker 2: triple so they've they've morphed a little bit and Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame is just elite against defending outside zone sixty one

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Speaker 2: percent success, So you know, and then you go to

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Speaker 2: the secondary, you have to say, well, defensive courtner Al Golden,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be working on not just getting that defensive

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Speaker 2: front of Notre Dame to stay disciplined, but he's got

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Speaker 2: to keep them watching for that play action pass that

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Speaker 2: is coming. Notre Dame was extremely disciplined against Navy. They

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Speaker 2: did not leak anywhere, not at the edge position, not

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Speaker 2: against play action pass. If you look at Navy, they

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Speaker 2: posted success rate of rushing below national average. Against Notre Dame.

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Speaker 2: They only had two runs that went over twelve yards.

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Speaker 2: They had six play action attempts, only three of them

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Speaker 2: were catches, for an eight out of thirteen point two yards.

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Speaker 2: No scores, there no damages to the Notre Dame defense.

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Speaker 2: So Notre Dame played exceptionally well against the Navy triple

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Speaker 2: and their attempts at running play action well.

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Speaker 1: Horvath was also hurt. Yeah, he still ran for one

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Speaker 1: thirty and by the way, Notre Dame's going to be

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Speaker 1: probably without one of their best defensive linemen in this game.

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Speaker 1: But that game slipped away from Navy Nada can't come

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Speaker 1: back once Abay turned it over five times, and then

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Speaker 1: if that happens to Army, Notreame is going to blow

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Speaker 1: them on.

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Speaker 2: The other side of the ball. There was no answer

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Speaker 2: for Notre Dames Allen, and I don't think there's going

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Speaker 2: to be any answer for Notre Dame's offense here from

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Speaker 2: Army either. I know Armies d you look at it.

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Speaker 2: The top five quality drives, finishing drives. I only I

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Speaker 2: mean strength to schedule one hundred and thirty third right,

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Speaker 2: Army is just inside the top fifty and broken tackles allowed.

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Speaker 2: That is not going to work against Riley Leonard, Jeremiah Love,

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Speaker 2: Jendarian Price, all efficient, all explosive. Their offensive line is

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Speaker 2: top thirty in lineyards stuff rate. They should absolutely manhandle

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Speaker 2: this Army front. So I just could not believe how

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Speaker 2: bad Army has been against certain run concepts. Forty one

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Speaker 2: percent success rate against inside zone. That's what Notre Dame

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Speaker 2: is going to run straight at him with that number

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Speaker 2: drops when the personnel gets even heavier. When the Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame decides to throw a twelve out there with two

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Speaker 2: tight ends blocking, Notre Dame should be flying through these

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Speaker 2: holes and gashing Armies defense consistently, not like once per drive,

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Speaker 2: like every snap. So Notre Dame is a beauty pageant team.

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Speaker 2: They need every point they can get. Handicap of the

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Speaker 2: game for me, Notre Dame's defense does not fall for

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Speaker 2: play action and Notre dames offense is not going to

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Speaker 2: get stopped by this Army front running inside zone. As

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Speaker 2: matter of back, they should just absolutely manhandle Army's defensive line.

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Speaker 1: All right. Two head to heads to start off the show.

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Speaker 2: Not on this one, though, I think I think we're

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Speaker 2: aligning on the next marquee.

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Speaker 1: Colorado Kansas Kansas three point underdog at Harrowhead. I'm on Kansas.

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Speaker 1: I've been riding Kansas. By the way, this will be

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Speaker 1: if you look at the current top twenty five of

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Speaker 1: the College Ball playoff rankings, this will be the sixth

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Speaker 1: team that Kansas plays that's ranked inside the top twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Do you know how many Colorado has played previously? Zero?

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Speaker 3: I love every minute of this is unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: I love it Colorado. How many wins ranked teams that

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Speaker 1: they beat so far this year zero? Kansas two in

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Speaker 1: the past two weeks. I mean, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the just who Colorado has played their wins in the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve. There's six six teams they beat up a

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Speaker 1: combined sixteen and twenty six league record, and if you

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Speaker 1: include their home loss to Kansas State twenty and twenty

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Speaker 1: nine forty percent, I mean Kansas State, excuse me, Kansas,

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Speaker 1: they're Big twelve on it's thirty one and eighteen sixty

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Speaker 1: three percent. So and if you even dig in a

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Speaker 1: little bit more, Colorado has received some breaks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they beat Baylor on ahil Mary Utah. The week after that,

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Speaker 1: Utah lost to BYU and their roster was decimated by

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Speaker 1: injury UCF before UCF made the quarterback change. Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: also a lot of injuries. The week after they upset

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Speaker 1: Iowa State, Colorado coming off of a bye, they won

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Speaker 1: the schedule lottery, And I like this matchup as well.

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Speaker 1: Kansas can't stop the run well. Colorado doesn't really run

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Speaker 1: it run a well, and they don't really run it.

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Speaker 1: They're one of the five most pass happy teams in

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Speaker 1: all of college football. Whereas Kansas's strength on defense, it's

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Speaker 1: their corners, It's Dotson and Bryant, and I mean they're

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Speaker 1: they're probably gonna give up some explosives here. That's Colorado's

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Speaker 1: gonna get explosives. They're really talented. Also, like Marvion Grant's

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Speaker 1: coming along in the slot as well. For against he has.

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Speaker 1: The safeties aren't that great, but not many teams have

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Speaker 1: two really good corners in the big twelve that can

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Speaker 1: match up with these receivers. Kansas doesn't get a lot

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Speaker 1: of pressure. So yeah, look shoudroor Sanders, he's really good.

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Speaker 1: The receivers are really good. They're gonna make some plays here.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's a decent matchup for the Kansas defense.

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Speaker 1: And even if Colorado is scoring, I think Kansas can

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Speaker 1: keep up. This Colorada defense is improved. I mean Livingston

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Speaker 1: the defense coordinator, I talked about it a lot. His

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Speaker 1: adjustments by the way, Cincinnati the Bengals, he came from

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Speaker 1: the Bengals, they haven't been making is good of adjustments

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Speaker 1: to year. How much was he responsible for some of

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Speaker 1: that that happened in Cincinnati. But Colorado their defense is improved,

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Speaker 1: But I think Kansas can move the ball here. Colorado's

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Speaker 1: defense is still not elite. Jalen Daniels fully healthy, his

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Speaker 1: legs in particular, I think can give Colorado an issue,

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Speaker 1: and I think at their peak the ceiling of beat.

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Speaker 1: Both of these offenses are similar, right in the same ballpark.

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Speaker 1: They're probably the highest in the Big Twelve. But I

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Speaker 1: think Kansas has the edge and that they can run,

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Speaker 1: en pass and here are the here are the other

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Speaker 1: reasons why I like Kansas finishing drives. I like Kansas.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you're gonna talk about this, but Kansas, I think

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Speaker 1: is better when you in the field condenses because they're

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Speaker 1: a better running team. Also, I have the better coach,

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Speaker 1: just from an in game perspective, better head coach, better

350
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Speaker 1: special teams. Kansas special teams aren't lead to the Cardo. Special

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Speaker 1: teams are so bad. Also, the more disciplined team look

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Speaker 1: at penalties. So all these in which would be a

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Speaker 1: close game, all of these ancillary factors, I think I

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Speaker 1: give a nod to Kansas. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: coin foot game for what it's where Flans Leopold plants.

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Speaker 1: I hold seventeen to seven and one against the spread

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Speaker 1: as a home underdog seventy point eight percent, covering over

358
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Speaker 1: six points per game. Rock chalk back back to it.

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Speaker 1: I really do hope they win nothing against Colorado. I

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Speaker 1: just want to keep that in Kansas, and I want

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Speaker 1: to bet them in a bowl and obviously they need

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Speaker 1: to win out to do so, Rock.

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Speaker 2: Chalk put it on a board. We're together on this one.

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Speaker 2: I think that you know, when I started studying this game,

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Speaker 2: you want to know when regression is coming, and it

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Speaker 2: has come for Kansas hardcore. They have four wins on

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Speaker 2: the season. If you go and look at their post

368
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Speaker 2: game win expectancy right now, they should be at five

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Speaker 2: point six wins. They're closer to six and four than

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Speaker 2: they are to four and six. And if you look

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Speaker 2: at they've just toasted some of the best teams in

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Speaker 2: the conference over the last month. So you know, if

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Speaker 2: you look at what Kansas is doing on offense, they've

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Speaker 2: just been electric on the ground. Their defense was the

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Speaker 2: driver behind beating Pete b Yu. Got to love that

376
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Speaker 2: pooch punt from Jalen Daniels hopping on that, setting up

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Speaker 2: field position for the touchdown to get that win. Get

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Speaker 2: b Yu out out of our grills. But really it's

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Speaker 2: the rush attack that's been done all the damage here

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Speaker 2: with Jalen Daniels and Devin Neil their eleventh in efficiency

381
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Speaker 2: Top ten and stuff right third and average distance before contact.

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Speaker 2: That's that's something Kansas runners do not get touched for

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Speaker 2: quite a while when they're rushing the ball. That's Daniels

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Speaker 2: and 'neil on the offensive line. But the transformation for

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Speaker 2: Colorado has come on the defensive side, and they are

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Speaker 2: much better with Robert Livingston as their defensive coordinator. Their

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Speaker 2: top twenty five and havoc and coverage. But you know,

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Speaker 2: as I point out these things that Colorado's great at,

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Speaker 2: it's against the pass. They have a trio of edge

390
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Speaker 2: rushers and bj Green, Samuel Oklanlola Arden Walker. They have

391
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Speaker 2: seventy four pressures combined, but that's against the pass. And

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Speaker 2: you know Travis Hunter, he saved a game at corner

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Speaker 2: earlier this season, but he got beat for his first touchdown,

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Speaker 2: you know, last week. So it's something definitely to keep

395
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Speaker 2: an eye on. But I think this elite rushing attack

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Speaker 2: for Kansas right now would give a lot of teams trouble,

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Speaker 2: even SEC defenses when you go to the other side

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Speaker 2: of the ball. I do see a couple of reasons

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Speaker 2: why Shaeduur might have some drives that come up a

400
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Speaker 2: little bit premature. You know, he is exclusively gone to

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Speaker 2: Travis Hunter. Ninety targets this season, seventy four catches Shaduur

402
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Speaker 2: right now is seventh in the nation and catchable ball rate.

403
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Speaker 2: He is extremely accurate. You cannot you put a kink

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Speaker 2: in any of his numbers. With Western Hunter, they always

405
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Speaker 2: get open here. Rushing attack came alive against UCF, but

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Speaker 2: it's still really kind of a second option in the

407
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Speaker 2: play calling on offense. It's really more of the Chaduur

408
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Speaker 2: show right now with Travis Hunter, and Shadur has dominated

409
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Speaker 2: Cover three, He's not going to see Cover three. He

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Speaker 2: has very tepid mid FBS success rate numbers against Cover one,

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Speaker 2: which is what DC Brian Borland loves. So I think

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Speaker 2: Chadur is going to get a little bit different look

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Speaker 2: with a single high safety, and I think it might

414
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Speaker 2: throw him off just enough to promote what is a

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Speaker 2: horrible offensive momentum killer rate. For me, the reason why

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Speaker 2: I took Kansas in this game came down to one reason.

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Speaker 2: Offensive momentum killer. That is something that looks at interceptions, fumbles,

418
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Speaker 2: miss field goal sacks, penalties. What does an offense do

419
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Speaker 2: to shoot themselves in the foot? Colorado's outside the top

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Speaker 2: one hundred, Kansas is fiftheh They hum like a machine.

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Speaker 2: Kansas is the side. The biggest reason is one of

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Speaker 2: these offenses much more clean than the other.

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Speaker 3: I don't have time to enjoy the moment, Santa and

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Speaker 3: don't have time. He got to deliver the gifts. King

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Speaker 3: had time to enjoy his cookies. I gotta keep it going.

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Speaker 3: I gotta keep this machine going.

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Speaker 1: It'd be amazing if in back to back back weeks,

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Speaker 1: Kansas knocks off Iowa State BYU and then Colorado from

429
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: a team that was two and six in large part

430
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: two to some of the worst luck at the end

431
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: of games in the entire country, staying in the big twelve.

432
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: Arizona State BYU Arizona State, F you'll go favorite here.

433
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: Where are we sitting out across the board right now?

434
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 2: Ah boy, it's a mix of three and three and

435
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 2: a half when I.

436
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's pretty much where it's been. I was

437
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: impressed with the BYU run defense, which has been a problem,

438
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 1: but I think that's I think that's ultimately what's probably

439
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: going to be the difference here. Scataboo. Even Sam Levitt

440
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: and his legs and I mean, I have to give

441
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 1: Levitt credit, he's come along as a passer and Tyson

442
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: has just been amazing at receiver. But the Arizona State

443
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 1: offensive line should get a push here. BYU struggled mobile quarterbacks,

444
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: struggled just against the run in general. So I think

445
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 1: that just Arizona State is going to have an easier

446
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: time sustaining drives than BYU, which I don't think is

447
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 1: going to find it. It's as easy to run the ball,

448
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: They're going to find themselves in more difficult third down situations.

449
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: But we've probably reached like the top of the market

450
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: on Arizona State. I think three is like the perfect number.

451
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: So I got nothing there? Do you have anything there?

452
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? I won't BYU, but I think this number is

453
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 2: going to move, and I think it's going to move

454
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 2: in the way of Arizona State. What you mentioned from

455
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 2: a market perspective, we're about getting to Arizona State's peak

456
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: with what Kenney Dillingham has done, which a couple of

457
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: games have been smoking mirrors, right, I mean they.

458
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: Should have lost to uc yeah two weeks ago. Well,

459
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: this is like a similar price range against UCF with

460
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: the backup quarterback, and they should have lost.

461
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: So you're getting the one loss BYU team off of

462
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 2: a loss where they should be uber focused. And I

463
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 2: think the one thing that I liked in BYU's numbers

464
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 2: is that Arizona State has zero pass rush. There are

465
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty third. I mean there's only one

466
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: team Morrison generating a pass rush in Arizona State. Listen,

467
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: we don't like Jake Retzloft, we haven't liked him all

468
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 2: season because of an accuracy, but he's going to get

469
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: to take a nap and fix a sandwich in this pocket.

470
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: The sun Devils are mid fbs and coverage and contested

471
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: catch rate. We know the rets Loft, even in a

472
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 2: clean pocket isn't very accurate, but he's going to have

473
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 2: all day to throw here. Arizona State's heavy rush offense,

474
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 2: they could have success their sixteenth in quality drives, but

475
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 2: scoring has been a real issue when they get close

476
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: to the end zone. And BYU's top twenty five and

477
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 2: defensive pass EPA j Hill just that secondary does not

478
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: let anything get behind them for the kuge. So also

479
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 2: if you look, there is a mo their advantage here

480
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 2: is stuck in special teams and penalties that favor BYU. Here.

481
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: I want.

482
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: I want BYU. If three and a half is not

483
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: widely available, I'd like it to be widely available for

484
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 2: everybody else. And if this thing is going to steam,

485
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: I'd be more than happy to take the last BYU number.

486
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 1: I think the line, the cruck line is three, So

487
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: once it starts creeping over three, I don't mind the look.

488
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 2: Because BYU's peak in the market was two weeks ago

489
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 2: against Utah. Arizona State's the team right now that's getting

490
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 2: the peak market that it's time to fade yep.

491
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,479
Speaker 1: And then finally, Texas A and M Auburn obviously an

492
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: important game for Texas A and M keep their college

493
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: ball playoff hopes, LEF keep their SEC championship hopes alive.

494
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: Auburn needs to win out to get to a bowl. Yeah,

495
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: Texam two and a half point favored here on the

496
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: road coming off the buy, and they stay focused. Mike

497
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: Elco asked, are you looking ahead to Texas? He said,

498
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: and I quote.

499
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 2: I think our focus is single handedly on Texas.

500
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: I'm in on Auburn right now and locked in on

501
00:25:59,160 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: what we got to get done.

502
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 2: He said. He said that out loud.

503
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: It's I think it was just a slip of the dunk,

504
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: which is just funny, Like, is he really just thinking

505
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: about Texas? So Auburn's defense has been elite all year,

506
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: one of the more underrated units in all of college football.

507
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: I think Texas A and M is and look, I've

508
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: invested in them. I think that they're pretty overrated. Like

509
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: if you look at just their body of work and

510
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 1: how they were able to catch teams with the surprise quarterbacks,

511
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: and what's their best win? Their best win is Missouri?

512
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: Is that their best win? Yeah? So but here's my problem.

513
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: It's like I wanted to back Auburn here I needed

514
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: I won in three And I also don't see how

515
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: this game goes over. I think it'll be super low scoring.

516
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: I think Texas A and M might play a little

517
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: tight Auburn just and by the way, Hugh Freezes oh

518
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 1: in ten against teams in his career at Auburn oh

519
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: in ten straight up against team that finished with above

520
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: five hundred record. So what I'm worried about is Auburn

521
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 1: all year just loses dumb games because they're dumb and

522
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: they can't convert yards into points, and they have bad

523
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: turnovers and they have awful special teams. That's something I'm

524
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 1: really ware they're A and M elite special teams. This

525
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 1: should be a close game, low scoring game they have.

526
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: I'm a Blue Groza and Ray Guy Ward voter. I

527
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: think Texas A and M's punter and kicker were both

528
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: on both semifinals lists. You know it wasn't on either

529
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: the kicker for Auburn. Their kickers hurt. They went to

530
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: their backup who's so bad, So now they have a

531
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: walk on who they went to. He made his field

532
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: goals last week, but they were like twenty yarders. He

533
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: was at a D three school. It closed and then

534
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 1: he was like gonna take night classes. I think at

535
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: Auburn that's their kicker now, so like they just do

536
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 1: dumb stuff like that's my fear here. But I do

537
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: think Auburn, who's just been super unlucky, but their defense

538
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: is legitally but I think they're going to come out here,

539
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: rely on Hunter, rely on their washing attack. I think

540
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 1: Texas A and M is going to try to do

541
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: the same, but their backfield is banged up, their offensive

542
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: line isn't fully healthy. I think this game is going

543
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: to be like a slog. Eileen Auburn. I want three.

544
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: My fear is just all those little things and the

545
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: coaching and the special teams and the turnovers and all

546
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: that in A and M is going to find a way.

547
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here?

548
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 2: No one comes into Jordan Hare in November and pushes

549
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 2: Auburn around unless your name is Diego Pavilla, So listen.

550
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be a really tough environment.

551
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 2: The overlook is real for Texas A and M. I

552
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: did buy Auburn at three, but I had to pay

553
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 2: minus one twenty six for it, so it wasn't one

554
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: of the larger bets that I've made. Hate paying juice,

555
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: but and the team SEC team at home. I project

556
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: this game Texas A and M minus one. You're right,

557
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: lackadaisical or loose loss of focus is there in the

558
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: tackling numbers for some reason. Mike Elco's team is outside

559
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 2: the top one hundred and tackling for some reason. They're

560
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 2: you know, there are just certain gaps that they have

561
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: in here in their numbers because they're stellar on the

562
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: defensive line. I think you're gonna see Jarqui's Hunter and

563
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: Peyton Thorn run a lot of outside zone away from

564
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: Nick Gorton. That's really their run concept that they like

565
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: to do. But you know, when you go to the

566
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, like Le'Veon Moss was out

567
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: last night and that last night's sec availability report, Ruben

568
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: Owens doubtful. I mean, who's running the ball for them?

569
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: Amari Daniels. You know I'm not healing at five carries

570
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: against the Mexico State last week. Y, yeah, it's not. Yeah, right,

571
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: So what kind of offense are they going to turn into?

572
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: Because if it's a passing offense, that's something Texas A

573
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: and M's really kind of struggled with, especially when you

574
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: look at their on target rate one hundred and twenty

575
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 2: eighth in combination of Wigman and Marcel Reid throwing this year.

576
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 2: You know, Jarquois Hunter and Peyton Thorne, they run every

577
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: single run concept here. And I think it's going to

578
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: be a lot for Texasan and I think it's a

579
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: hostile environment. I make the game text A and minus one,

580
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: so I wouldn't blame anyone for taking Auburn plus two

581
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: and a half. And if you get feeling a little

582
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: weird about it in the middle game, you want to

583
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: buy out of it and try to get field goal.

584
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: On the other side, I probably will be in that

585
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: same boat, but just cannot ignore the overlook Jordan Hare

586
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: and the fact that TEXA, A and M does have

587
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 2: gaffs of the tackling numbers that are just kind of

588
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: surprising to me when I look at their sheet.

589
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I need three, but I like, I think my

590
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: favorite bet in the game is the under if I

591
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: can't get three. Before we move on, quick announcement for

592
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: you guys, Action Network is running back our annual Black

593
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: Friday sale, offering our best price of the year on

594
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,880
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595
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:35,280
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596
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597
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598
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: projections from myself, Colin Calibres, and our whole Action Network team.

599
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: That's Actionnetwork dot Com Slash Black Friday for the best

600
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: price of the year on Action Pro. All right, let's

601
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: get to the rundown. BC. We're going back to our

602
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: BC boys at home. Anything three or better against North Carolina.

603
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: Look credit to Mac Brown UNC turned around at season.

604
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they lost four straight, some of it was unlucky.

605
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: After losing that embarrassing game against JMU, had a bye week,

606
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: have won three straight. They're gone to a bowl credit

607
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: to Mac Brown. A lot of people wrote them off,

608
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: but they beat Virginia who was completely their offensive line

609
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: was third string center. They were completely injury ravaged wake

610
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: Forest and it really wasn't that impressive and the corpse

611
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: of Florida State? Am I that impressed? Not really? What's

612
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: changed for North Carolina not much. They got Rocker back.

613
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: Brooker's been a menace. He had like eighteen pressures in

614
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: six sacks over the best three games. So their defense

615
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: has more juice and they cleaned up some things on

616
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: that end. But I think I like the spot for BC.

617
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: I like a big fan of what O'Brien's doing. I

618
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: don't think there's a drop off between Castianis and James.

619
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: I actually think James is an upgrade because he's a

620
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: better fit for this offense. What can BC do on defense?

621
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: They can stop their run, that's their strength, and they

622
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: might even get cam Arnold, their leader of their defensive

623
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: linebacker back they're dealing with. But that's the strength and

624
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: you have to stop Lamar and Hampton. That's what North

625
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: Carolina wants to do. Feed Him's one of the best

626
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: backs in country. Would be getting more attention if there

627
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: was a nashtaling genty and BC secondary very dicey. Couple

628
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: injuries might be starting a true freshman who've actually been

629
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 1: impressed with Kid McShane. But North kount is not going

630
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: to kill you through the air. Chris Well, by the way,

631
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: has some major regression coming if you look at his

632
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: twelve touchdowns, three interceptions, seven big time throws, eleven turnover

633
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: where he plays. They also lost their tight end for

634
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: the year. I think BC will be able to run it.

635
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: They have an identity now, they have the right running

636
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: back rotation, set up some play action, use some misdirection

637
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: against this UNC defense that can be had in that department.

638
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: I like BC desperate team, need to win out to

639
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: get to a Bowl. Both games at home and North Carolina.

640
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: Maybe the buy kind of killed their momentum, but they're

641
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: already they're already Bowl eligible. How motivated are they for

642
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: a noon kick here? I don't I have some questions there.

643
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: Mac Brownford, it's worth five and eleven against spread as

644
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:09,719
Speaker 1: a road favorite in league play. I like BC plus three.

645
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: I like BC two took them today, five and five forward. Yeah,

646
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 2: we're on put it on a board. We're we just

647
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: need one win here to get BC into Bowl. It's

648
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: a heavy rush offense going to take advantage of a

649
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: Carolina defense. It's one hundred and sixteenth in line yards.

650
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 2: That's not good. That means the offensive line for BC

651
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: is going to be able to push around North Carolina

652
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: all day. And then when you go to the other

653
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: side of the ball, BC's rush defense is top thirty

654
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 2: five in efficiency and lineyards, So the trenches are going

655
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 2: to belong to Boston College here. Generally, that's enough for

656
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 2: me to make a bet. But when you go a

657
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 2: little bit farther into North Carolina's numbers, they just don't

658
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: create broken or miss tackles or one hundred and twenty

659
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: fourth nationally and BC is twenty ninth and tackling, I

660
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 2: just don't see a lot of I don't expect North

661
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: Carolina's offense to have efficiency, success and moving the chains

662
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: of methodicals, and I certainly don't see them creating broken

663
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 2: or miss tackles ranking one hundred and twenty fourth against

664
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: what is a very discipline BC defense. So give me

665
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: the give me the Eagles here.

666
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: Let's go Minnesota Penn State. My hot takes. I'm gonna

667
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 1: hedge my hot takes, but one of SMU or Penn

668
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 1: State is going down this weekend. I've had this spot

669
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: circle for Minnesota off the by Penn State second straight

670
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: road game. I love this Minnesota defense. I have this

671
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: Minnesota defense rated in the top twenty, naturally pushing top fifteen.

672
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: They are legit under Corey Edman, and this Penn State

673
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: offense still continues to underwhelm me. I think they have

674
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: some guys to throw at Tyler Warren. They can man

675
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: up on the outside and load the box here like

676
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: they can man up against de Penn State wide receivers.

677
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: Also the other side of the ball. We'll see if

678
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota gets back. Let me see if there's been an update.

679
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: They might get their left guard back, who's missed the

680
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 1: past two games. I had to shuffle the whole offensive line.

681
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: It's amazing with this Minnesota offense is under Max Brosners,

682
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: just in proving every week they've gone from they're kind

683
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: of like a mini air raid. I mean, they were

684
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: like sixty percent rush last year. Now they're forty five percent.

685
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: They went from thirteenth in the country and rush rate

686
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: to hunt.

687
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 2: They're like a snack size air raid.

688
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's you know that it's a lot of

689
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 1: short passes, like as an extension of the run game.

690
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: But I think that's the way to attack this Penn

691
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 1: State defense still have questions about their coverage, like we

692
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 1: saw them against like USC at Ohio State. We're able

693
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: to move the ball, you can't really run on them consistently.

694
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: Minnesota's not really trying to do that. I think this

695
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: game is gonna be super low scoring. I think that

696
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,720
Speaker 1: Minnesota can have some success sustaining drives to slow paced teams.

697
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: Penn State really lacks explosive It's hard for them to

698
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: build margin against legit defenses. I think they have a shot.

699
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 1: Minnesota is a shot here Black eleven and five against

700
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: the spread with ten or more days of prep, and

701
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: that only includes the regular season. He's also won all

702
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: five bowl games he's appeared in with Minnesota. Give me

703
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: the Gophers. I never win Penn State bets, but actually

704
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: have this year. Got the monkey off my back. I

705
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 1: like Minnesota.

706
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 3: You know what, trailblazers do they plays trails for other

707
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 3: people to be coming late.

708
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 2: Nothing on the side here For me, I make the

709
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: side exactly what the number is. I felt like the under,

710
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 2: and you pointed out a lot of things why you

711
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: would like the under here. Not only are these teams

712
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 2: both thirty seconds per play on offense, I just there's

713
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 2: no scenario where either team is getting gashed. You know,

714
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 2: we got temps below forty degrees. We got a number

715
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: of forty five, and I'm not expecting Brosmer to light

716
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: up this Penn State d because Brosmer is a short

717
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 2: passer and Penn State's great at tackling in space. I

718
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: do think the under is the play. Say take the

719
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: points here. I think it's gonna be close enough. But

720
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 2: I wasn't there. I was more in the under.

721
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 1: Ole Miss at Florida. A lot of people have been

722
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: asking me about this game. Look, Florida is playing really well,

723
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 1: but they're so beat up ole Miss. They're coming off

724
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 1: that big yet, you know, like ole Miss is coming

725
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: off Georgia game, but they'll buy It's like, I think

726
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 1: this is actually a decent spot for ole Miss, and

727
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: I worry about the Florida defense with their injuries against

728
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 1: this Ole Miss offense, yep Ole Miss with their I

729
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: mean you look at like the best of the best

730
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: offenses of the Florida has played, and you know, you

731
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: even go back to the Texas game, they might just

732
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 1: get roasted here and it's almost just going to be

733
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 1: able to overwhelm Lagway with pressure, almost also getting healthier

734
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 1: on offense. He could see Miss sitting ten and a half.

735
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 1: I I like Ole Miss here. I think this ends

736
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: up being a blowout.

737
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 2: Put it on the board. I have Game of the

738
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 2: Year minus six and a half.

739
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: Haven't met it yet, so I won't put it on

740
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: the board, but I think we both agree.

741
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. I've already so I had

742
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 2: a Game of the Year minus six and a half

743
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 2: because I knew this was a terrible scheduling spot for

744
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 2: Florida coming off what they've done the last four games.

745
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just horrific scheduling. But you know, there's

746
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 2: a lot of things playing in Ole missus factor here

747
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 2: Beauty pageant contest rules that I talk out Seeds five

748
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 2: through eleven. Looking to impress Old Miss is really under

749
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 2: the gun, right because they're listed as the fourth best

750
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 2: SEC team according to the selection committee Texas Bama Georgia.

751
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 2: Then Ole Miss falls one spot ahead of Tennessee. This

752
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: game is one hour before Tennessee kicks off. Don't think

753
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 2: that Lane's not thinking like I have to have a

754
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 2: better looking score than what Tennessee has over the next

755
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 2: two weeks. This is a JP Jefferson pilot kickoff time.

756
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: I think Old Miss right now is peaking on both

757
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: sides of the ball. Offensively, Jackson Dart their top five

758
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 2: in quality drives. Half of the possessions against Georgia had

759
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 2: two plus first downs. That's impressive to me. Dart has

760
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 2: eight tds to one interception over the last three weeks

761
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 2: since the bye week. His pass efficiency is skyrocketed since

762
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 2: the Arkansas game when he hit Jordan Watkins for five touchdowns.

763
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 2: And guess who's back this week Trey Harris. So that's

764
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 2: a huge problem for Florida, who had their SEC availability

765
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 2: report come out on Wednesday night. And guess who's still

766
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 2: on their corners. Devin Moore and Justin Marshall are listed

767
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 2: as out at corner. That means Dejon Johnson is going

768
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 2: to have to play it again. He was picked on

769
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 2: by LSU. He was targeted eight times, allowed six to

770
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 2: be caught some very poor coverage grades. Now you've got

771
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: Jackson Dart and Trey Harris coming at you. Not a

772
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: good look on that side of the ball, but the

773
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: other side of the balls where I mean, it's just

774
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 2: so easy to make a case for all Missus defense.

775
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: Prince Lely Yuman, Amelan sou Trey Perkins two of the

776
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: top six players in all of FBS in PFF for

777
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:29,280
Speaker 2: past rush productivity. That's sick. Two of the top six

778
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: pass rushers of all the PFF individual players. Secondary is

779
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: thirty first in coverage. I guess if you're looking for

780
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: a gap and Pete Golding's defense, I guess the secondary

781
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: is not as good as the rush defense or from

782
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 2: a havoc perspective, so you say, can floor to do

783
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 2: some damage. Montreal Johnson had a couple carries last week.

784
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 2: Should be full strength here. Elijah Badger a huge addition

785
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 2: for DJ Lagway. But the problem is is the Gators

786
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,479
Speaker 2: are not going to be able to stay in standard downs.

787
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 2: They're not going to be able to run the ball.

788
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 2: Ole miss is going to shut that down. They're going

789
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 2: to put a lagway into known passing situations is where

790
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 2: I think you should still play ten and a half.

791
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 2: The Ole Miss d leads the nation an average third

792
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:11,879
Speaker 2: down distance eight point six yards. Florida's offense is ninety

793
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 2: ninth and third downs Florida will be in third downs

794
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 2: often they will be at nine yards or more and

795
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: they only converted at the ninety ninth best rate. We've

796
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 2: been playing Florida. But we got to get these corners

797
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 2: back right. First of all, we're gonna get the corners back,

798
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: and right now, Ole Miss peaking. You put a bed

799
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: in on the app. Everybody can consider it. I guess

800
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 2: on the board, but I think all miss roles.

801
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: Here, Kentucky and Texas. Why is Kentucky? Yeah it is.

802
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play Kentucky. I want twenty one.

803
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna go there.

804
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: Kentucky is healthy on defense. Now they're only going to

805
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: be missing their outside linebacker. They get the corners back,

806
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: get Walker back. They had so many injuries on defense.

807
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 1: When healthy, this is like a top twenty unit. They're

808
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: gonna take away explosives. And what is the Texas offense

809
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 1: done to impress you? Except against all the Florida backups

810
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: when they just went nuclear.

811
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: They just throw dumps.

812
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Michigan. Everyone's like that was a great offensive performance,

813
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: forty percent success rate, five and a half yards per play,

814
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: removing garbage time. Even against Vandy, Arkansas Georgia was a

815
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: twenty five percent success rate. Even Oklahoma was not overwhelming

816
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 1: their offense, just it's not firing on all cylinders. Stoops

817
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: is going to call this game as like he's like

818
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: he bet on Kentucky plus three touchdowns, slow it up,

819
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 1: just like he did against the Ole Miss. You know, Texas.

820
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 1: I don't think Texas needs a margin. They need to

821
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: win and then beat Texas A and m yep, and

822
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: then they're getting in. So I don't think this is

823
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: necessarily a beauty pageant for them. And we saw that

824
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,399
Speaker 1: with Sark last week, so I didn't want to run

825
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: it up for you. So yeah, I think it's too

826
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: high with Kentucky healthy.

827
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: I like, the Cats had to hear you, good, big

828
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: dog had to hear you. Take a couple of victory

829
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 2: laps on Arkansas this week before he'll be like, eh,

830
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 2: Sark decided to take his foot off the gas there.

831
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 2: I think that's I think that's what's going to happen here, Stuck.

832
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: I mean Texas with maybe the biggest game for their

833
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 2: fans and the sark Era coming next week, I think

834
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: from a fan base perspective, So there's massive overlook for

835
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 2: Texas here too. Kentucky, you're right, student's going to play

836
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 2: like his job is online. They have four wins, they

837
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 2: have to win out and I think if you get

838
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 2: this margin twenty four twenty seven points, that back door

839
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 2: is wide open in the second half for Kentucky to

840
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 2: come in there and cover this number. I think this

841
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 2: number should be seventeen. It's catching resistance at twenty and

842
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 2: a half. I'll join you right now if you want.

843
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 2: I don't mind taking twenty and a half. I think

844
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: it should be lower, and I think it's going to

845
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 2: go lower in the market. But Kentucky had a four

846
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: game losing streak to Vandy, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee. They went

847
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 2: into a buy, they thrashed Murray State, and now they're healthy.

848
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,879
Speaker 2: You know this to me, this is this is Texas

849
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 2: throwing it into cruise control in the second half on

850
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 2: a backdoor cover. And plus you're right about the Texas offense.

851
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 2: They have been taking advantage of weak corners the last

852
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 2: couple of weeks, a lot of flare outs, a lot

853
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: of dumps into the flats and allowing blockers and wide

854
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 2: receiver screens to get bond loose and whoever else, golden,

855
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 2: whoever's out there. So I don't think it's that scary

856
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 2: because Texas is just not a Texas is not that

857
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 2: physical of a team where it scares me. They should

858
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: be scared next week against Texas A and.

859
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: M and Andy D LSU. I mean like LSU where

860
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 1: they are mentally they're not good against mobile quarterbacks. But man,

861
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: you're you're selling low on LSU. Diego been unbelievable as

862
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: an underdog this year. I'd lean that way, But I

863
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: have a weird feeling about this game. So I have

864
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 1: an eerie feeling that LSU is go to cover.

865
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot for LSU.

866
00:43:58,440 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm staying away.

867
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 2: I think the number is good. It lines up with

868
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 2: what our projections are total. Also, I just to me,

869
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 2: this is a bounce back game for LSU, and I

870
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 2: think the bottom of the market on ellis And the

871
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 2: other thing too, is there's this narrative out there that

872
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: LSU can't handle mobile quarterbacks, so they can't. I mean

873
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 2: it's true, but Diego is more of an in between

874
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 2: the tackles mobile quarterback than he is outside scatback, right.

875
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 2: I mean, he's not Jaylen Milroe, he's not Marcel reed like,

876
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 2: he's not Lagway like. He's inside the tackles kind of

877
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: a full back dive kind of quarterback. So it's a

878
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 2: different mobile quarterback that we're talking about here, and I

879
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 2: think that plays into LSU's advantage.

880
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: You do you like USC?

881
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: I do like USC. Looks like the market disagrees with me.

882
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 2: I took the open four and a half I think

883
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 2: six before it kind of came back down to four

884
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 2: and a half again. And Jade may have a you know,

885
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: he got USC to the window of twenty eight twenty

886
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 2: win last week over Nebraska. There's still our offense is

887
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: still top twenty five and passing success rate, and USC

888
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: just struggles on d in numerous areas. I mean they're

889
00:44:56,680 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: bottom fifteen and quality drives, finishing drives. But the thing

890
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 2: about Mava is, you know, he's prone to mistakes.

891
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 1: He did at.

892
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 2: UNLV, he had a couple of mistakes last week and

893
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays, but UCLA is one hundred and twenty

894
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 2: ninth then forcing contested catches. That's not good here. And

895
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 2: there's no pass rush one hundred and twenty fourth pass

896
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 2: rush rank for UCLA.

897
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 1: Here.

898
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 2: Jade and Mayve is going to be able to sit

899
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 2: back in that pocket and just pick them off. And

900
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 2: UCLA's offense is terrible in scoring position three points per

901
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 2: trip when crossing into the extended red zone. USC's d

902
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: has been better in passing downs than they have against

903
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 2: the rush, top thirte in efficiency and allowing explosives. So

904
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 2: I think the advantages is all rely on the Trojans here.

905
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 1: Last one Rundown. I like Maryland too. They've been bad

906
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: their secondary, it's horrendous. They keep rotating guys in every week.

907
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: It's different guys, but it's Iowa. Iowa can't throw the ball.

908
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 1: In order to stop Iowa, you have to stop Gale Johnson.

909
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 1: Maryland's run defense is good. I think they'll show up

910
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: here last home game. Need to win out for Bowl eligibility.

911
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 1: The offense has been ugly. Their offensive line is so

912
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: badly since he's taken our play calling and it's not

913
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: got any better. Edwards has had a rough few games,

914
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: but they still have playmakers on the outside. The Highway

915
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 1: defense is not the same, and especially on the road.

916
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 1: They've already given up more explosive plays in ten games

917
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,959
Speaker 1: and they did in fourteen last year. And who's gonna

918
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 1: be the quarterback for Iowa? I don't know. Vernon Sullivan

919
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: out for the year. The rumors of macmahar leaving the team,

920
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 1: You're gonna be down to Stratton. Who's practice. They moved

921
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 1: them to a scout team linebacker. I can't say too

922
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: much about him. They're saying, oh, we love this kid,

923
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: but they moved them to the linebacker a few weeks ago.

924
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 1: I like the turfs at home.

925
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 2: Crapas footboy, that's what Maryland does.

926
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:37,439
Speaker 1: All right, it's time four some trash, the trash man

927
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 1: pick of the week.

928
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 2: I'm the trash man. Just throw me in the trash,

929
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: your garbage, and you know it, totally unreliable, undependable it

930
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 2: that's it.

931
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: You've been told off.

932
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 2: How do you like that?

933
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:48,479
Speaker 3: Good?

934
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 1: All right? Trash trash fifteen to five on the air.

935
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: You're one on one, unfortunately thanks to kennessall State in overtime.

936
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 1: Arn I agree, By the way, we're twenty seven and

937
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 1: sixteen sixty two point seven percent, and that's even with

938
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: San Jose State and two awful North Texas beats, so

939
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: hopefully we can keep it up. We'll summarize the board

940
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 1: as always at the end. Let's get to some trash.

941
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 1: Oh baby, I'm starting off with the corpse Oklahoma State

942
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: plus three and a half at home against Texas Tech. No, No,

943
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: I've avoided Oklahoma State fortunately like the plague all year,

944
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 1: except for one time bet when they went to BYU

945
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 1: off the bye. They should have won that game. I'm

946
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: banking on them showing up here one last time off

947
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 1: their second by. And by the way, Gundy twenty eight

948
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 1: eighteen against the spread twenty eight and eighteen sixty one

949
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 1: percent with extra time to prepare, this is a team

950
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 1: they look TODs Brooks could just run wild here. But

951
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: I don't see why Oklahoma State can't keep up. Texas

952
00:47:58,080 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: Tech defense is beat up and they're bad. I had

953
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: these teams close to like ninetieth in defense, so this

954
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: could easily turn into a shootout. But you have all

955
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 1: these seniors, last home game off the by. I think

956
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: Gundy gets them ready. Texas Tech, for what it's worth,

957
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: under Joey MacGuire, owen three against the spread as a

958
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 1: road favorite of a field goal or more, failing to

959
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: cover by fifteen points per game. They've lost all three

960
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: out right. I think the Pokes show off here. I

961
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 1: think this line. I have a two point eight, so

962
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: anything over a field goal. And I don't know where

963
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: Texas Tech is at mentally, Like, I know they're mathematically alive,

964
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: but basically they're out of the Big twelve Twitter race.

965
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 1: They're already in a bowl. They are They really going

966
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: to be up for this game at Oklahoma State. And

967
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: by the way, this is the first time when they're

968
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: gunny since two thousand and five they could play a

969
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,439
Speaker 1: meaningless game like they're out of postseason contention. Pretty wild.

970
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: I think they show up. Give me the Pokes.

971
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,399
Speaker 2: I was banned by my spouse for betting on teams

972
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 2: in the state of Oklahoma, but she's working this weekend

973
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 2: and Shade, listen to this right now, So we're bet

974
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 2: in Oklahoma State.

975
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 3: Yeah.

976
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: I actually put money down as you were talking, and

977
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 2: I'm about to send it in on the app right now.

978
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 2: This Texas Tech defensive numbers are horrific in every way

979
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,919
Speaker 2: from tackling to quality drives to coverage coverage one hundred

980
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 2: and twenty eighth. If Alan Bowman can't throw against his old.

981
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 1: Team, Allum Bowman Revenge game.

982
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 2: Dallan Bowman Revenge Game. I cannot believe that just got

983
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:29,760
Speaker 2: set on this podcast. No, there are advantages as horrific

984
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: as w how Oklahoma State's numbers are, there are still

985
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 2: advantages against his Texas Tech defense. So I'm with you.

986
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 1: I mean, now, Alan Bowman feels like he was a

987
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 1: Texas Tech I don't know, ten years ago, right after

988
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: Pata James. Yeah, you're not going to agree with this one.

989
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 2: Nope.

990
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:47,240
Speaker 1: Virginia against SMU.

991
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 2: Hey, ain't nobody trying to hear that bullshit?

992
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 1: I think Virgini's gonna shot to win this game out.

993
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,720
Speaker 1: They're gonna start Calandra. He's been bad, he's been good.

994
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 1: Who knows what you need to throw downfield against the

995
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 1: SESSAMU team, He's gonna have a short leash if he's

996
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 1: throwing turnovers and over his past few games it hasn't

997
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: been pretty, but the offensive line's actually in a better spot.

998
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: I'm just not I think that this is the peak

999
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 1: of the market on SMU I'm not fully sold on

1000
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 1: this Mustangs team. Yes, they turned it around since going

1001
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: to Jennings after the buye. Who would they beat TCU

1002
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 1: by twenty four? They're out gained. They had a plus

1003
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 1: four turnover margin, very fluky result. The corpse of Florida State.

1004
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 1: Louisville was an impressive win, but it's a coin flip

1005
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: game statistically, and it's not like Louisville has been great.

1006
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 1: Stanford with a freshman quarterback making its first career start

1007
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,279
Speaker 1: Duke in overtime, I know they had a minus six

1008
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 1: turnover margin Pitt, who I think is a fraud, and

1009
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 1: then BC was in the game last week got SMU.

1010
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 1: I'm not impressed. And even if you include the minus

1011
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 1: six turn of a margin against Duke, they're plus eight.

1012
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 1: And there are other six wins after the bye. Those

1013
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: teams eleven of twenty five on fourth down. They've just

1014
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: been a bit fortunate, not only with the schedule but

1015
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 1: just in other areas. They don't really efficiently run the ball,

1016
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: and I love for Shard Smith, but they don't really

1017
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 1: run block well. That's Virginia's biggest weakness. Virginia will have

1018
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 1: a starting safety out. They did get a bit banged

1019
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: up last week in Saturday, which is a bit of

1020
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 1: a concern. But I've said for months, s Who's losing

1021
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:23,720
Speaker 1: this game? Tony Elliott thirteen and three against the spread

1022
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 1: as an underdog and acc play eight no when catching

1023
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 1: over a touchdown, give me the Who's plus ten?

1024
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 2: No, I'm not joining. I mean it is a bad spot, listen.

1025
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 2: I mean the biggest bet that I had preseason was

1026
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 2: the wind total with a small you know couple Benjamin

1027
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 2: Franklin's down on a twenty to one for them to

1028
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 2: win the conference, which I don't I have less faith

1029
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 2: in all the time. But truthfully, I'm just crossing my

1030
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 2: fingers and hope that SMU gets out alive. But I

1031
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 2: am not partaking in this spread.

1032
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: Northwestern catching double digits sat michiganam I gotta say, I'm

1033
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 1: a little ashamed of you.

1034
00:51:58,719 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 2: How much is enough?

1035
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Michigan with laying double digits, Michigan stinks people.

1036
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 1: I think they're all in three against the spread laying

1037
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 1: double digits this year. Have they won a game by

1038
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,240
Speaker 1: more than ten? I think the first game against Fresno

1039
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 1: game that was like a six point game of five

1040
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 1: to go. Since then, him being anyone by double digits.

1041
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 1: Northwestern's going to ugly this game up. It's going to

1042
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:20,799
Speaker 1: be slow. They need to win for their bowl hopes,

1043
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 1: as Michigan really care about going to bowl the year

1044
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 1: after a shitty bowl, the year they win in the

1045
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 1: National Tital. They have a Hito of State on DECT

1046
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 1: that's their super Bowl next week. But Northwestern d top

1047
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: twenty five in the country. Can't run on them. You

1048
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 1: can efficiently pass on them. They don't give up explosives

1049
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 1: either with their shell and they're going to get their

1050
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: two best defenders back this week. They're get their best corner.

1051
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,439
Speaker 1: He didn't play last week against Ohio State. They still

1052
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: did a really good job that. They played Ohio State

1053
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: really well. They don't punt blocked at the one and

1054
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,840
Speaker 1: didn't score three times in the red zone. Their defense

1055
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:53,279
Speaker 1: can keep them in this game. How is Northwestern going

1056
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: to score? I don't know. I mean, they got Kurts

1057
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 1: back last week. That helps. Like I trust Northwestern's receivers

1058
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: more than Michigan's. But I mean this game could be

1059
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: I like the underto this game could end up like

1060
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 1: thirteen to seven. Right, It's gonna be slow. It's gonna

1061
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: be low scoring. Give me the double digits here, Road

1062
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 1: Conference underdogs at low totals less than forty five fifty

1063
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,240
Speaker 1: six percent over like a six hundred game sample size

1064
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 1: one nine, one, thirteen and seven fifteen and a half

1065
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 1: percent when catching double digits. I like the Cats. They

1066
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 1: keep this close.

1067
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,359
Speaker 2: I'm not going to do the league game. Yeah, I'm

1068
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 2: not going to join you here in the trash, but

1069
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: I am probably gonna put it under in here after

1070
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 2: the pot. I project this at thirty five.

1071
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 1: I mean, if you take this, I'm under thirty five,

1072
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 1: so I don't mind the under.

1073
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 2: If you take this total, will you expect the final

1074
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 2: score to be Michigan twenty three Northwestern fourteen? Like? Can

1075
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 2: either of those offenses do that? I don't think so,

1076
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 2: so not s.

1077
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 1: There's turnovers like that's the only issue. But that gets

1078
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 1: the scary thing about going under such a low total.

1079
00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 1: This is like I think it's gonna be like seventeen

1080
00:53:58,200 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 1: to ten, twenty to ten.

1081
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 2: Teams are one hundred and fifteenth and one hundred and eighteenth.

1082
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 2: The offensive quality drives how many three and outs you

1083
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 2: want to set the We'll say there's seventeen possessions in

1084
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 2: this game, I would I would go over under one

1085
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 2: and a half quality drives in this game.

1086
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: Last one the scariest one. It's only gonna be a

1087
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 1: small bath for me. U Mass plus forty two and

1088
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 1: a half. Oh, here's a chance being a man taking

1089
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:30,879
Speaker 1: my hand on a stand. I don't want no man

1090
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 1: and man. I don't want no man and man. I've

1091
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 1: seen over and over again that Kirby Smart doesn't give

1092
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: a shit about these games. Do we hear something crazy?

1093
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 1: As a favorite of twenty eight or more? Kirby Smart

1094
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 1: is six and twenty against the spread as a favorite

1095
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 1: of thirty eight or more. Oh and twelve, oh and twelve?

1096
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm talking you go back a couple years

1097
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 1: of the National They beat Samford like just thirty and nothing.

1098
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 1: They're a great staff. They prepare for other things, not

1099
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 1: little sisters of the poor. They also don't want to

1100
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 1: get anyone hurt and they just shut it down. So

1101
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 1: this is just a bat on that. I mean, if

1102
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 1: they care, they could blow out you Mass. But U

1103
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 1: Mass has been feisty on the road this year, Georgia.

1104
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 1: I just don't think cares. I don't think Gerbie Smart cares.

1105
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 1: I doubt they spend any time prepping. This is just

1106
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 1: get a lead, shut it down, you mass back to

1107
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: the well. Hopefully they mentally recover. They should have beat Liberty.

1108
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 2: I think I disagree with you here. Georgia was highly

1109
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 2: successful with an uptempo passing offense last week. I think

1110
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 2: if you want to keep any other wrinkles off tape,

1111
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 2: you're probably just going to go with what you had

1112
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 2: last week. It doesn't give anybody else that's scouting you

1113
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 2: anything new. I think you run the exact same place.

1114
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 2: Can you mass stop those plays? They've been your second

1115
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 2: all the and Dope and all the other tight ends

1116
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 2: ran No. I think that they essentially have a scrimmage

1117
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 2: practice game and try to get them many points on

1118
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 2: the board as possible. Why they need to get as

1119
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 2: many points on the board and have continuity in their

1120
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: offense because Georgia Tech can score points fast, and you

1121
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 2: better believe they're coming out they Elejacks are coming out

1122
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 2: swinging next week. I don't think that you want to

1123
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 2: put a stall in this offense when they just had

1124
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 2: their maybe their best offensive game of the season.

1125
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:18,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you also don't want to have injuries. They've

1126
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 1: already dealt with so many injuries. Okay, I speak that

1127
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:21,960
Speaker 1: their offense is going to come out and do well.

1128
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 2: Trust me, listen, you played.

1129
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 1: I think they're going to go up twenty eight nothing

1130
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: and then that's it. Shut it down second half nothing.

1131
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, maybe I should be playing Georgia first half

1132
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 2: instead of that. But and plus, I don't know where

1133
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 2: you mass his head's at with Don Brown being dismissed.

1134
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 2: But I don't know if that's even a factor. But

1135
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,760
Speaker 2: think about this, stuck. What gets players hurt on offense.

1136
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: It's run blocking and running backs running through holes. Like

1137
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,800
Speaker 2: if you just set an offensive lineman back and pass blocking,

1138
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 2: it's generally not a physical injury issue for them. And

1139
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 2: if you can burn corners of you masks and why

1140
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 2: not do it? I just you know, I don't know

1141
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 2: for me. I think the offensive continuity that you've been

1142
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: struggling to find for this Bobo offense the entire season,

1143
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 2: you finally got it. I don't think you're letting your

1144
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,319
Speaker 2: foot off the gas a week before you're gonna get

1145
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 2: a Georgia Tech team that's got plenty of ways to

1146
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:11,240
Speaker 2: score and get down the field.

1147
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: Oh, in twelve against the sprint. That's all I'm saying.

1148
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 1: Thirty eight plus those were teams I'll go in.

1149
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 2: I'll probably put first half in the app but I'll

1150
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 2: go against you here.

1151
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: By the way, speaking of fired coaches, Charlotte Fau, what

1152
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: a game this week between matchup of interim coaches Rip Biff,

1153
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 1: one of our producers, all time favorites that Charlotte is gone,

1154
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: and our jobs.

1155
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 2: I told the players yesterday my job, my number one job,

1156
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 2: is to love them.

1157
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 1: Kyle, do you do have a trash I do pick

1158
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 1: this week? I don't even I don't know. I wouldn't

1159
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: even actually consider the trash game, but we'll put it here.

1160
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:49,479
Speaker 1: Sam Houston State at Jacksonville State. By the way, listen

1161
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: to our new BCS episode if you want all of

1162
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 1: the scenarios for all of the conferences. This one is

1163
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 1: pretty wild. Everyone still has a chance because everyone plays

1164
00:57:58,440 --> 00:57:59,439
Speaker 1: each other. Who do you like here?

1165
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: The team aren't trash, the conference is trash, but we're

1166
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 2: gonna take Jacksonville State here. For all of us that

1167
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 2: have Sam Houston twenty or better to one to win

1168
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 2: Conference USA, I think you got to get out of

1169
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 2: it here. Find a way to get a Jacksonville money line.

1170
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 2: Find a way to parlay it with something else, but

1171
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 2: just find a way to get the value of your

1172
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 2: Sam Houston State ticket that you put on futures and

1173
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,320
Speaker 2: get it into here. Both these teams are built exactly

1174
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: the same, stuck on offense like mobile quarterbacks that run

1175
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 2: inside zone and Sam Houston's gonna run Hunter Watson, Jay

1176
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 2: Ducker fifty six percent success right, eleven percent big play rate.

1177
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 2: They've been great on the ground, they move the ball

1178
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 2: very well using inside zone, and Jacksonville State is very

1179
00:58:34,480 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 2: poor and rush defense. But the problem for the Bearcats

1180
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 2: is in scoring territory one hundred and twenty ninth in

1181
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: offensive finishing drives. They cannot convert red zone into points.

1182
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 2: It's been horrible. Jacksonville State exact same set up with

1183
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 2: quarterback Tyler Huff and running back Tray Stewart equally damaging

1184
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 2: on the ground using inside zone Sam, they should have

1185
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 2: plenty of explosives against Sam Houston's defense. Here's the difference

1186
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 2: in this game. Jacksonville's State offensively fifth and finishing drives

1187
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 2: sixteenth in red zone touchdown efficiency. To me, that's the

1188
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:08,960
Speaker 2: difference between these two teams. I'd played Jacksonville State on

1189
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 2: the spread, I'd play the money line to get out

1190
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 2: of your Sam Houston future ticket.

1191
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff there. Before we get to some

1192
00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 1: Arkansas football, let's go nowhere fast.

1193
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 3: You are about to enter a world unlike any you've

1194
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 3: ever seen.

1195
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 2: Before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the brave all meat.

1196
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: All right, we have San Diego State at Utah State

1197
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 1: gross gross gross gross. Utah State's four and a half

1198
00:59:58,200 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 1: point favorite total sixty one and a half.

1199
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 2: That numbers too high. We've only lost one of these

1200
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 2: this year, but I'm gonna say under I project this

1201
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 2: at fifty five. San Diego State's a much better pass

1202
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 2: defense than a rush defense. That's all they're going to

1203
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 2: see from Utah State. And when you look at Utah State,

1204
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 2: they're only one hundred and twenty eight and pass explosives,

1205
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 2: which kind of shocked me for what they used to

1206
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 2: be under Blake Anderson.

1207
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:18,760
Speaker 1: Santo State's offense they lost royals too, which is a

1208
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 1: big loss.

1209
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, huge loss. San Diego State's offense is all explosives.

1210
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 2: Probably could get a score here, but offensive momentum killer rate,

1211
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 2: which we talked about before. Do you shoot yourselves in

1212
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 2: the foot on offense. Both these teams are outside the

1213
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 2: top one hundred. They cannot stop hurting themselves. Specifically in

1214
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: one area. These teams are one hundred and twenty second

1215
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: and one hundred and thirty three, one hundred and thirty

1216
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 2: third and penalties. I mean, this is just gonna be

1217
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 2: a flag fest. There could be twenty five of them,

1218
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 2: So give me the under in this game. The explosiveness

1219
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 2: that each offense possesses is just is not going to

1220
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 2: be enough here.

1221
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 1: It's top for Colin to talk some Arkansas football. Arkansas

1222
01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 1: twenty one and a half point favor total, forty nine

1223
01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:59,919
Speaker 1: and a half. Louisiana Tacks still fighting for bow eligibility.

1224
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:05,440
Speaker 1: Surprisingly after they held Western Kentucky to seven points at

1225
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: home and an upset win. Crazy and one of the

1226
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: more shocking results of the year. Not that they I

1227
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 1: mean it was shocking that they one hour, but they

1228
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: held Western Kentucky to seven points. Arkansas needs to win

1229
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:18,400
Speaker 1: one of its final two games to get to Bowl eligibility.

1230
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:25,439
Speaker 1: This one is obviously the more likely outcome. Missouri on deck.

1231
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: It's a weird game. I have a sneaking you knowing

1232
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 1: a lot of text going to cover, but I'm close

1233
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 1: to the number. What do you see here? Whoo pick

1234
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 1: suy absolute dumpster five dumps for fire.

1235
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 2: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1236
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 2: of the year, just blowing program up. Give us a

1237
01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 2: death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. They could cover, but

1238
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 2: we're going to Arkansas first quarter. Remember the rules that

1239
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 2: we threw out back when Arkansas played Pine Bluff. But

1240
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 2: Trino has a history of scoring an ungodly amount of

1241
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 2: points in the first half in these non conference easy

1242
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 2: games and then shutting it down in the second half.

1243
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:03,400
Speaker 2: It happens all the time. And Arkansas's full strength right

1244
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: now at every position to Quinnin Jackson, ready to roll

1245
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 2: the offensive line, all the health problems, They're ready to roll.

1246
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 2: Pittman mentioned the nickel base defense for La Tech. He

1247
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 2: was calling out Rover Colby Fields as the player to

1248
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 2: focus on. Arkansas is going to have a pretty big

1249
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 2: advantage running the ball against this LA Tech defense. Strength

1250
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 2: to schedule one hundred and thirty second. You know, there's

1251
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 2: a lot of advantages here for Arkansas running the ball,

1252
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 2: but you know La Tech bottom twenty and pass rush

1253
01:02:28,080 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 2: on defense, Taylor Green is going to have ample time,

1254
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 2: and that's been Taylor Green's biggest problem this year is

1255
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 2: that he makes the wrong decisions an RPO, especially when

1256
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:38,440
Speaker 2: he's pressured. Lawtech doesn't have any kind of pass rush whatsoever. Now,

1257
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,120
Speaker 2: if you want to go a little bit deeper, defensive

1258
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 2: coordinator for LA Tech is Jeremiah Johnson. Before that he

1259
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 2: was at Northern Iowa. Patrino's offense at Missouri State played

1260
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,800
Speaker 2: them twice in the span of a year. Remember when

1261
01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 2: FCS had games in March of twenty twenty one because

1262
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 2: of the pandemic. Well, Patrino beat Northern Iowa with thirteen

1263
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 2: to six, then faced him like seven months later. Missouri

1264
01:02:58,360 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 2: State played Northern Iowa again in the regular season and

1265
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 2: put up thirty four points. So Patrino learned his lesson,

1266
01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 2: won the game with only thirteen points, went and played

1267
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 2: them Jeremiah Johnson again the DC's at LA Tech and

1268
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 2: put up thirty four points. I think he's going to

1269
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 2: be able to figure out how to attack this law

1270
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 2: Tech defense. Now here's the key point why you're gonna

1271
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:20,160
Speaker 2: bet Arkansas first quarter. LA Tech has scored a touchdown

1272
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:22,439
Speaker 2: in the first quarter, and only two of their nine

1273
01:03:22,520 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 2: FBS games this year, they have a negative scoring differential

1274
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 2: in the first quarter. They have been horrible in the

1275
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:32,800
Speaker 2: scripted portion of the games. Arkansas the complete worst. I believe,

1276
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 2: top thirty in scoring differential in the first quarter. And

1277
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,080
Speaker 2: this follows that non conference slate where Petrino's just gonna

1278
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 2: slam you and then you're not going to see anything

1279
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 2: in the second half. So Arkansas first quarter minus six

1280
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:43,400
Speaker 2: and a half is out there.

1281
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 3: All right for you.

1282
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 1: Get out of here. Let's go three.

1283
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 2: Now, let's make it a quick three and out.

1284
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 1: All right, first down, Friday night lights, Let's go through

1285
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 1: these quickly.

1286
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 2: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, fullhearts.

1287
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 1: Hey, let's go play some football. Temple at UTSA stands

1288
01:04:03,480 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: Wray and wins a game in overtime and then gets

1289
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 1: fired interim for Temple, Temple might shut down their program.

1290
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 1: To be honest soon. No, I got nothing here, Temple,

1291
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:15,920
Speaker 1: UTSA anything for you.

1292
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 2: Under. I don't see Temple getting any points on the

1293
01:04:19,720 --> 01:04:22,760
Speaker 2: board here whatsoever. UTA's defense is a very good at

1294
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 2: havoc lineyards pass rush. If you lose Under fifty five

1295
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:29,200
Speaker 2: and a half because UTSA scores fifty six, fine, But

1296
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 2: I think Under is the play Purdue.

1297
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 1: That's SPARTI Michigan State thirteen and that point favor total

1298
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. Michigan State needs to win

1299
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 1: out to get to a voyage. But I think it's

1300
01:04:42,120 --> 01:04:45,200
Speaker 1: like important for Jonathan Smith. They got Rutgers at home

1301
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 1: next week. Produce sitting at one and nine, what does

1302
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 1: his team have left? I don't know. I lean I

1303
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:55,880
Speaker 1: think sparty first half on the script. Yeah, I can

1304
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 1: get yelled out by the way smell callers again.

1305
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sparty first quarter or first half is the play.

1306
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:02,320
Speaker 2: I think the number is exactly where it should be.

1307
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 2: I think the under should also be a have a

1308
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 2: look because if Michigan State gets any kind of lead,

1309
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 2: I don't expect them to just route Purdue out, although

1310
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 2: Purdue is allowing people to route them out. Purdue has

1311
01:05:11,280 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 2: scored thirty total points in the last four games. Thirty

1312
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 2: total points. So I think you got to look at

1313
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:19,959
Speaker 2: the under or maybe a Purdue team total under because

1314
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 2: it's just not happening on offense.

1315
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 1: UNLV at San Jose State. You know who we're going with,

1316
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:29,120
Speaker 1: right Nick Nash, Baby, Yeah, yeah, San Jose State plus

1317
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 1: to put it on the board, put.

1318
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 2: It on the board. Listen, you U and LV can't

1319
01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 2: stop Nicknash. They give up a ton of explosives one

1320
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty. They can stop the run. Santai State

1321
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 2: doesn't run it, can't run it. You can hit explosives

1322
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 2: on this UNLV defense. And on the other side of

1323
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:47,800
Speaker 2: the ball. The strength of the San Jose State defense

1324
01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 2: is their run defense. That's the strength of unlv it's offense.

1325
01:05:52,760 --> 01:05:56,040
Speaker 2: And yeah, I think San Jose State can keep up

1326
01:05:56,040 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 2: here also backdoor if needed Nicknash Santaes State osis for

1327
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 2: last week too, and San Jose State actually does create

1328
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 2: contested catches and that's that that is going to be

1329
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:07,880
Speaker 2: needed against Ricky White. So I just when you put

1330
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 2: Nick Nash versus Ricky White, there are better numbers for

1331
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 2: San Jose State.

1332
01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 1: All right, moving on to second down. Our favorite overdog, aka,

1333
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 1: our favorite favorite.

1334
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 2: It's called the overdogs parlay.

1335
01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:20,960
Speaker 1: Sorry to do this too for your Colorado State rams,

1336
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,680
Speaker 1: I'm called a Fresno State. Look, Colorida State has been great,

1337
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:27,880
Speaker 1: but let's look at their league schedule that that didn't

1338
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:30,800
Speaker 1: it doesn't include boys or UNLV. First, there are two

1339
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 1: non conference games that they won, were against Northern Colorado

1340
01:06:33,640 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 1: and Utah. Here are their Mountain West wins. San Jose

1341
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:42,479
Speaker 1: State by seven dead even game air Force by eight

1342
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 1: thousands have since bench their starting quarterback New Mexico by

1343
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 1: eleven Mexico four fifty three to three thirty four net

1344
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:55,400
Speaker 1: yard at advantage minus four turnovers. Now Thata by seventeen

1345
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 1: aout a four forty one to three twenty seven net

1346
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:03,160
Speaker 1: yard to Jedge. And then they dominated Wyoming even if

1347
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 1: you include Wyoming. The Wyoming in Wyoming was without their

1348
01:07:06,720 --> 01:07:08,919
Speaker 1: best weapon on offense, they out gained by two hundred yards.

1349
01:07:08,920 --> 01:07:12,240
Speaker 1: Even if include that Rams who were undefeated in conference play,

1350
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 1: plus forty one total net yards. That's it now so

1351
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,680
Speaker 1: plus seven turnover margin, favorable matchups when they played certain teams,

1352
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 1: and they played a bunch of teams that can't defend

1353
01:07:22,920 --> 01:07:28,200
Speaker 1: their run with key injuries. I think that the opposite

1354
01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:30,880
Speaker 1: is true now for Colorida State because they have injuries,

1355
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:34,280
Speaker 1: their top corner, their whole backfield all got hurt last week.

1356
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 1: Fresno State coming off of bye, and the key thing

1357
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 1: with Fresno State is they recently got their left tackle

1358
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 1: back last year when he went out. When Spoemer went out,

1359
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 1: their offense crumbled down the stretch got them back two

1360
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 1: games ago. The protection has been better. I think Mikey

1361
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:54,959
Speaker 1: King can take advantage of this. Colorida State secondary. Dean

1362
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:58,840
Speaker 1: Clark should come back as well at safety. So yeah,

1363
01:08:00,600 --> 01:08:03,360
Speaker 1: and Colorado State strength is their runde. Fresno can't run it.

1364
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 1: They're just gonna come out here. They're gonna throw, and

1365
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:06,920
Speaker 1: I think they'll have success doing it against a vulnerable

1366
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:10,280
Speaker 1: secondary that could be shorthanded. You know, one of their studs,

1367
01:08:10,280 --> 01:08:11,880
Speaker 1: safety has been out the past couple games as well,

1368
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:15,160
Speaker 1: was in a boot. So yeah, I mean against the

1369
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 1: slightly tougher schedule, Fresno State almost a half yard net

1370
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:23,639
Speaker 1: better yard per play margin if to you exclude garbage time.

1371
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 1: I Fresno State on like unlike colors So the President

1372
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 1: State has been pretty unlucky. Like you look at their losses.

1373
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 1: They lost in the final seconds in a couple of games.

1374
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, I like presdo here. That's my favorite favorite.

1375
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, completely agree. And for those of who listen to

1376
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 2: the new BCS and have Colorado State tickets, get your

1377
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 2: investment back. My overdog is gonna go against Stucky's pick.

1378
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Notre Dame as my overdog. I just

1379
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:50,400
Speaker 2: don't see any resistance to this rushing attack right here. Remember,

1380
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,760
Speaker 2: Army strength of schedule is one hundred and thirty third

1381
01:08:52,760 --> 01:08:56,760
Speaker 2: in the nation. This is Notre Dame running wild.

1382
01:08:57,000 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 1: Disagree obviously, all right? Third Down are underdog Mondayline partly

1383
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 1: our favorite underdogs turning good weekends in two great weekends.

1384
01:09:09,920 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line.

1385
01:09:11,960 --> 01:09:15,120
Speaker 2: Parlay Rock Chalk.

1386
01:09:15,200 --> 01:09:16,799
Speaker 1: Kansas covered it already.

1387
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:19,800
Speaker 2: Where you going, Well, look at us putting together, getting

1388
01:09:19,840 --> 01:09:21,120
Speaker 2: everybody ready for college basketball.

1389
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:23,479
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Duke. Yeah.

1390
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, I don't know what's going on. I mean

1391
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:27,640
Speaker 2: Touton and Drones are still listed as questionable on the

1392
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:31,080
Speaker 2: injury report. That Virginia Tech's coming off of a bye.

1393
01:09:31,560 --> 01:09:33,840
Speaker 2: I mean, are they Are they gonna hold Touton and

1394
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:36,960
Speaker 2: Drones out here and save them for Virginia next week

1395
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:38,479
Speaker 2: to get six wins and go to a bowl. I mean,

1396
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:40,720
Speaker 2: I don't know why you would do that, but I

1397
01:09:40,720 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 2: mean both of them played against Clemson and they were

1398
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,080
Speaker 2: completely ineffective, just not a factor in that game. So

1399
01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:48,559
Speaker 2: we'll see where Virginia Tech is offensively. Huge HAVOC concerns

1400
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:51,200
Speaker 2: here for the Virginia Tech offense, Duke is second and

1401
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 2: the nation and Havoc only behind Old Miss Virginia Tech's

1402
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 2: offense one hundred and eleventh and Havoc allowed and Malik

1403
01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:59,360
Speaker 2: Murphy on offense for Duke is going to be very

1404
01:09:59,360 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 2: well protected. Top twenty five pass rush for that offensive

1405
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:04,960
Speaker 2: line for Manny dia is his team, and you're gonna

1406
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:07,160
Speaker 2: need that because Virginia Tech's only strength on defense is

1407
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:09,559
Speaker 2: the fact that they have a pass rush. So again,

1408
01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:13,000
Speaker 2: huge third down defense advantage for Manny Diaz tenth nationally,

1409
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,280
Speaker 2: way better than what Virginia Tech has going on. So

1410
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 2: give me the blue doubles.

1411
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,400
Speaker 1: All right, and then we'll get out of air. Forth

1412
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:20,960
Speaker 1: down go Ford board recap.

1413
01:10:21,720 --> 01:10:24,080
Speaker 2: Hot damn, this is fun.

1414
01:10:24,360 --> 01:10:26,080
Speaker 1: Are we putting Kentucky and Fresno on here?

1415
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:28,880
Speaker 2: I want twenty one in Kentucky too, but I'll do

1416
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 2: twenty and a half on the board if if you.

1417
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:33,240
Speaker 1: Will, okay, put it on, all right, I'm gonna have

1418
01:10:33,280 --> 01:10:33,759
Speaker 1: a Fresno.

1419
01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:37,320
Speaker 2: Oh, I agree with you completely, all right?

1420
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 1: So agree we have twenty seven to sixteen on the

1421
01:10:42,160 --> 01:10:47,799
Speaker 1: air Kansas BC Oak State. Brett's gonna be laughing somewhere

1422
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 1: when he's listening to this San Jose State, Nicknash Friday Night,

1423
01:10:53,040 --> 01:10:57,880
Speaker 1: Fresno State, Late night Saturday in Kentucky. What we're gonna

1424
01:10:58,439 --> 01:11:02,519
Speaker 1: wait to see if there's twenty one head to heads.

1425
01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:03,840
Speaker 1: I'm three and two on the air and we got

1426
01:11:03,880 --> 01:11:07,599
Speaker 1: three this week. I'm on Indiana and Army. I'm riding

1427
01:11:07,640 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 1: with the public dogs here. I think they might be.

1428
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 1: Well that a name Armie probably won't be Indiana, I

1429
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 1: think we'll be.

1430
01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:16,160
Speaker 2: And then U Mass, I'm gonna have energy shot before

1431
01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:17,760
Speaker 2: games kick because you and I are gonna be going

1432
01:11:17,800 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 2: back and forth on Twitter with each other.

1433
01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Trash fifteen and five on the air, Oak State, Virginia,

1434
01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 1: Northwestern and UMass Colin ads in Jack State. That'll do

1435
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:33,599
Speaker 1: it for us. Thanks to Colin for joining me. As always,

1436
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 1: thanks to our producer Mat Mitchell on the back end.

1437
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 1: Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.

1438
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:39,920
Speaker 1: We'll be back Saturday with our live show. Make sure

1439
01:11:39,960 --> 01:11:41,519
Speaker 1: you check out the group of five guys if you haven't,

1440
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:43,599
Speaker 1: they always do a great job. Don't forget the college

1441
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:46,280
Speaker 1: Basket episodes are coming soon. Recap episode will be out

1442
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:49,799
Speaker 1: Monday nine to five nine Bad Beat and as always,

1443
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:53,519
Speaker 1: NFL and college podcast I'm just gonna be up for

1444
01:11:53,680 --> 01:11:56,559
Speaker 1: three days straight and solo others. We make sure we

1445
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:59,920
Speaker 1: will get them to you for the week fourteenth State.

1446
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:05,360
Speaker 1: By Wednesday morning, all that'll be out, So got to

1447
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:07,280
Speaker 1: make sure you. Got to make sure everyone gets it

1448
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:11,240
Speaker 1: day before Thanksgiving. So happy to do so. Make sure

1449
01:12:11,280 --> 01:12:13,280
Speaker 1: you subscribe on Subscribe Subscribe tel friend toe ony it

1450
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel BBOC. Hit the subscribe button there and

1451
01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:18,920
Speaker 1: follow all of our bets on the award winning Action

1452
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:21,240
Speaker 1: Network AP. Don't forget about the new Parlay Express as well.

1453
01:12:21,280 --> 01:12:24,400
Speaker 1: If you're into some longer shot debts. Good luck on

1454
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 1: all of your wages. Thanks for tuning in. As always,

1455
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 1: let's close the year strong and stay hot. Cheers, peace out.

1456
01:12:29,439 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 1: Full Army Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1457
01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1458
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1459
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:49,959
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