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Speaker 1: Welcome to Daily Variety, your daily dose of news and

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Speaker 1: analysis for entertainment industry insiders. It's Tuesday, October twenty first,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm your host, Cynthia Lyttleton. I am

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Speaker 1: co editor in chief of Variety alongside Ramin Setuda. I'm

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Speaker 1: in LA. He's in New York, and Righty has reporters

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Speaker 1: around the world covering the business of entertainment. In today's episode,

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Speaker 1: in our box Office segment, we'll speak with Rebecca Rubin

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Speaker 1: about the weekend at the Turnstiles and why this has

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Speaker 1: been such a big year for horror. And we'll get

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Speaker 1: ready for third quarter earning season with Business editor Todd

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Speaker 1: Spangler running through some of the news that we can

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Speaker 1: expect from Hollywood's biggest players, starting with Netflix's report coming

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Speaker 1: later today. But before we get to that, here are

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Speaker 1: a few headlines just in this morning that you need

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Speaker 1: to know. It's on. Warner Brothers Discovery has officially confirmed

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Speaker 1: that it has received multiple offers to buy all or

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Speaker 1: part of the company. There's been enough activity that w

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Speaker 1: b D was forced to acknowledge it all in an

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Speaker 1: SEC filing. The company said that for now it will

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Speaker 1: proceed with the planned split of its cable networks from

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Speaker 1: HBO and Warner Brothers Studios, but at this point who

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Speaker 1: knows what will happen. The only certainty is that Variety

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Speaker 1: will cover it all in real time on Variety dot Com.

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Speaker 1: The annual New York Game Awards will expand to a

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Speaker 1: two day event for the first time next year. They'll

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Speaker 1: be held at the SVA Theater on January seventeenth and eighteenth,

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Speaker 1: and all proceeds benefit the industry nonprofit Playing With Purpose.

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Speaker 1: My colleague Jennifer mos has the scoop. Disney has unveiled

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Speaker 1: an expansive plan to celebrate the nation's two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fiftieth birthday. The Disney Celebrates America effort begins on Veterans

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Speaker 1: Day next month and will extend through July fourth weekend

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Speaker 1: in Uoing a twenty four hour multi platform broadcast anchored

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Speaker 1: by David Muir, It will air across Disney Plus, Hulu, ABC, ESPN, Freeform, FX,

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Speaker 1: and National Geographic. Netflix is turning the board game Catan

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Speaker 1: into a TV show, It's Really Fun to Play With

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Speaker 1: the group. Roy Lee of Vertigo Entertainment is shepherding the

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Speaker 1: project along with creatives at the Board Games publisher. All

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Speaker 1: of these stories and so much more can be found

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Speaker 1: on Variety dot com Right now, now we turn to

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Speaker 1: conversations with Variety journalists about news and trends in show business.

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Speaker 1: The production of Daily Variety was derailed Monday morning by

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Speaker 1: the massive outage at Amazon Web Services, so full disclosure,

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Speaker 1: both of today's segments were intended to run on Monday.

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Speaker 1: By the time our podcast publishing platform was back up

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Speaker 1: and running mid afternoon, LA time, it just seemed like

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Speaker 1: a better idea to start fresh today on Tuesday. The

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Speaker 1: insights and analysis offered up by Rebecca and Todd are

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Speaker 1: worth the weight. So now it's time to talk box

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Speaker 1: office with Rebecca Rubin, our senior film and media reporter.

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Speaker 1: This weekend, moviegoers answered the call of Black Phone two

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Speaker 1: from the prolific Blumhouse genre label and Universal.

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Speaker 2: Rebecca Rubin, thanks for joining me, Thanks for having me

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Speaker 2: so here we are in late October, and no surprise

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Speaker 2: that a horror film is topping the box office. Rebecca,

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Speaker 2: were you surprised by the performance of Black Phone two?

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't say I was surprised. The opening was fairly

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Speaker 2: in line with industry expectations. It ended up opening to

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Speaker 2: twenty six point five million, and that was just ahead

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Speaker 2: of the original Black Phone, which launched with about twenty

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Speaker 2: three million dollars in twenty twenty two. And what's interesting

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Speaker 2: to me there is the these films opened in very

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Speaker 2: different box office landscapes. Because the original film opened as

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Speaker 2: theaters were still recovering from COVID. I wouldn't say a

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Speaker 2: movie going was at full strength with that twenty three

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Speaker 2: million dollars start. It opened in summer, and it came

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Speaker 2: in fourth place behind Elvis, Top Gun, Maverick, and Jurassic

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Speaker 2: World Dominion, so just after you the competition at that time.

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Speaker 2: This film, in contrast, were in October, the height of

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Speaker 2: spooky season, when you'd expect the scary movie to come out,

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Speaker 2: and twenty six point five million, just a few million

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Speaker 2: more was enough to land in first place. So this

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Speaker 2: movie didn't have a lot of competition. It's been a.

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Speaker 3: Pretty slow October. And so while I think that any

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Speaker 3: sequel that improves upon the last is usually counted as

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Speaker 3: a win, it didn't have as much competition as the

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Speaker 3: first film, and so I think it's it's a modest hit.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the Blumhouse of it all. This is

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Speaker 1: a happy result after a couple of underperformers at the

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Speaker 1: box office for this label that has had a strong

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Speaker 1: streak for many years.

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Speaker 3: Blumhouse is best known for making these massive horror franchises

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Speaker 3: at pretty low budgets, and so they ended up being

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Speaker 3: hugely profitable. They're behind Paranormal Activity, the Purge, the Halloween remakes,

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Speaker 3: and they've been known as pretty consistent hit makers. This

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Speaker 3: year though, they've struggled a bit and they've had a

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Speaker 3: lot of movies come out. One was Wolfman that came

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Speaker 3: out in January. Megan two point zero, which was a

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Speaker 3: sequel to the breakout hit Megan, came out in June,

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Speaker 3: and both of those films and a few others were

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Speaker 3: pretty rejected by moviegoers.

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Speaker 1: Well, nobody bats a thousand. Their prolificness is definitely part

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Speaker 1: of their brand. And of course, Jason Blum was just

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Speaker 1: honored last week. He was so gracious and he was

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Speaker 1: our first ever Master of Horror Award winner. We had

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Speaker 1: a good time celebrating the world of horror, and so

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Speaker 1: this is a good timing for him. But let me

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Speaker 1: ask you about horror in general. I mean, twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five has been a big box office year for horror.

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Speaker 3: Jason Blum was recently on the cover of Variety, and

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Speaker 3: to his credit, he will own a miss. He is

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Speaker 3: not want to shy away from admitting that a movie

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Speaker 3: didn't do well, and he'll dissect why it might not

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Speaker 3: have connected with audiences. And he noted that actually Blumhouse

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Speaker 3: aside has been a really strong year for horror, a

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Speaker 3: lot of original horror, and Warner Brothers has been responsible

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Speaker 3: for movies like Weapons and Sinners that have just become

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Speaker 3: breakout hits. And com Score reported this morning that horror

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Speaker 3: films at this point in twenty twenty five had generated

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Speaker 3: one point two billion dollars and that is a record

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Speaker 3: for the genre. It broke a record that was set

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Speaker 3: back in twenty seventeen with one point one six billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: And so so it's really showing what strength this genre

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Speaker 3: has theatrically and why people really when they are choosing

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Speaker 3: to go to theaters, they like to be in a

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Speaker 3: communal setting to watch this kind of film.

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Speaker 1: If something about getting scared together, Rebecca, what proportion does

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Speaker 1: horror account for in the overall year to date box office? Tallly?

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Speaker 3: So, right now, the year to date box office taally

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Speaker 3: is about six point eight billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: It does horror do well on the premium format screens

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Speaker 1: that we've been talking about so much this year.

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Speaker 3: It depends on the film. The movies that really do

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Speaker 3: well in the premium large formats are the action epics,

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Speaker 3: big visual spectacles, and so a movie like tron Ares

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Speaker 3: that Disney released last weekend had a big number of

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Speaker 3: the premium large formats. Even so, the movie did have

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Speaker 3: a pretty significant sixty six percent decline. It made about

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Speaker 3: eleven million dollars in its second weekend, and so it's

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Speaker 3: struggling a bit against it's one hundred and eighty million

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Speaker 3: dollar budget, but it is over indexing on those premium formats.

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Speaker 1: Like you mentioned, what else rounded out the top five

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Speaker 1: or so the box office.

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Speaker 3: It's been a pretty weak October at the box office

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Speaker 3: right now. The month is down eleven percent from the

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Speaker 3: same point in twenty twenty four. So not the strongest weekend,

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Speaker 3: not the strongest month. But the other significant new release

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Speaker 3: was Good Fortune, and that is a comedy that was

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Speaker 3: directed by A. Z's and Sorry, in which he also

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Speaker 3: stars alongside Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogan. Lionsgate released the

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Speaker 3: movie It's a comedy, and it opened to six point

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Speaker 3: two million dollars. It's in line with expectations. It's not

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Speaker 3: a great result for a movie that costs thirty million dollars.

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Speaker 3: But at the same time, comedy is just a genre

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Speaker 3: that really has struggled theatrically against the rise of streaming.

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Speaker 3: And it's not even that this movie was poorly received.

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Speaker 3: It actually has pretty good reviews in audio and scores.

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Speaker 3: It's just that not enough people were incentivized to buy

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Speaker 3: a ticket, and so speaks to the struggles right now

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Speaker 3: that comedy is facing more than it is the quality of.

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Speaker 1: The film anything else about the box office, So the

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Speaker 1: performance of any films that stands out to you, Rebecca,

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Speaker 1: this weekend, After The Hunt, which is the film by

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Speaker 1: Luca Guadaninho stars Julia Roberts, Iowa Debris and Andrew Garfield,

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Speaker 1: expanded from limited release to nationwide theaters. It didn't really

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Speaker 1: sustain a lot.

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Speaker 3: Of traction while doing that. It opened in seventh place

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Speaker 3: and it earned about one point five million dollars from

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Speaker 3: a little over one thousand theaters. And so it's not

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Speaker 3: a great result given the cast of this movie, the

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Speaker 3: pedigree of a director like Luca Guadaninho. I think Amazon MGM,

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Speaker 3: which is releasing the film, had a lot of expectations

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Speaker 3: for this being an Awards play. It's just not really

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Speaker 3: getting the traction among moviegoers.

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Speaker 1: It's a surprise for Julia Roberts picture, especially one that's

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Speaker 1: been talked about. And of course, as we slide into

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Speaker 1: award season, a lot of FYC hopes writing on a

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Speaker 1: lot of these fall releases. Rebecca, as ever, thank you

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Speaker 1: for talking us through.

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Speaker 3: This all, Thanks for having me, and now we'll get.

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Speaker 1: The lowdown from Variety Business editor Todd Spangler on Q

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Speaker 1: three earnings season, which kicks off today with Netflix. It'll

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Speaker 1: surely be a newsy cycle as there is so much

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Speaker 1: activity in the air from Disney's succession plans to David

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Speaker 1: Ellison's first conference call outing with Wall Street as the

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Speaker 1: CEO of Paramount's guidance Comcast will no doubt talk about

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Speaker 1: the NBA and the Versant spinoff. Then there's the swirl

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Speaker 1: around Paramount and Warner Brothers, Discovery and potentially more consolidation.

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Speaker 1: You need a scorecard to follow it all, and we

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Speaker 1: can help with that. Go to Variety dot com and

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Speaker 1: sign up for our free weekly strictly business newsletter that

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Speaker 1: always has a calendar of every earnings call and aggregates

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Speaker 1: all of our earning coverage in one handy place and

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Speaker 1: it comes out on Friday. Check it out. Now, here's

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Speaker 1: Todd Dodd Spangler. Thanks for joining me. Hello, Well, here

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Speaker 1: we are Todd on the cusp of another earning season.

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Speaker 1: What to expect from Netflix this time around? What do

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Speaker 1: you think they'll be talking about?

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Speaker 4: So they no longer disclose subscriber numbers, which had really

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Speaker 4: been the number that people focused on is as a

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Speaker 4: general indicator of their help, their growth, their trajectory over time.

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Speaker 4: So now it's really about the revenue metrics and what

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Speaker 4: people are going to be looking at is engagement. Executives

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Speaker 4: can really provide some color about how engagement is doing

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Speaker 4: for Netflix because you can look at it and say, Okay, well,

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Speaker 4: they're stopping reporting the subscriber numbers because they're starting to

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Speaker 4: plateau on that, and so they want people to focus

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Speaker 4: on other things, other levers that are growing. You know,

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Speaker 4: the top line bottom line for forecasting seventeen percent growth

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Speaker 4: on the top line and an operating margin of thirty

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Speaker 4: one percent.

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Speaker 1: Pretty damn enviable, but the.

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Speaker 4: Things that people are going to be looking for are

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Speaker 4: how is the ad business taking off for them? It's

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Speaker 4: kind of been a slow burn for They've not really

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Speaker 4: talked a whole lot about how much of a difference

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Speaker 4: it's making. So we'll be looking for signs about advertising

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Speaker 4: for sure.

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Speaker 1: I will confess that I really thought Netflix was going

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Speaker 1: to make the biggest swing for UFC to make it

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Speaker 1: that natural companion with the WWE. So up next on

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Speaker 1: October thirtieth is Comcast. Comcast right now is presumably in

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Speaker 1: the final innings of the Versant spinoff of all the

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Speaker 1: cable networks not named Bravo in the group, and I'm

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Speaker 1: sure that's going to be some discussion, But what else

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Speaker 1: do you think will be in the mix for Comcasts.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to be happily talking about the

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Speaker 4: progress that they've made with Peacock. I think they feel

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Speaker 4: that they finally hit critical mass where Peacock can really

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Speaker 4: hold its own against HBO Max and the Disney plus

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Speaker 4: Hulu bundle. I'm not totally sure that that's true, but

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Speaker 4: you know, they felt that they were in a strong

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Speaker 4: position that they went to Apple and did a bundle deal,

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Speaker 4: which is unusual.

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Speaker 1: Also, I'm guessing there will be a lot of questions

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Speaker 1: about the NBA economics. They also have a lot of

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Speaker 1: billions tied up in that for NBC and for Peacock. Okay, Todd.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to Paramount, which is on November tenth,

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Speaker 1: and we talked about, of course, David Ellison I think

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Speaker 1: is going to be pressed on his UFC economics. It's

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Speaker 1: so new. The company has still just come together in August.

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Speaker 1: As we covered in depth, what do you think the

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Speaker 1: initial focus of the analyst community is going to be

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Speaker 1: for Ellison and Company when they host their first call

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Speaker 1: as the owners of the publicly traded Paramount's guidance.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to look for a baseline from

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Speaker 4: which to measure the company's progress going forward, what the

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Speaker 4: company's constructure looks like. Now the Paramount is getting ready

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Speaker 4: to lay off. We understand about two thousand people domestically.

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Speaker 4: This is the company and the leadership trying to show

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Speaker 4: that they can do more with less and really make

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Speaker 4: this machine a more efficient operation. So they're going to

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Speaker 4: explain what they've done and what they plan to do next.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Disney. There is a lot going on

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Speaker 1: at the mousehouse in this quarter and next what are

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Speaker 1: you most interested to hear?

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Speaker 4: So again we're talking about how Netflix is no longer

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Speaker 4: reporting subscriber numbers. This will be the last time they

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Speaker 4: talk about numbers for Disney Plus and Hulus, so we're

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Speaker 4: going to have to focus on something else to figure

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Speaker 4: out how well they did during the quarter. Also, Disney

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Speaker 4: this quarter introduced the standalone ESPN products, so expect to

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Speaker 4: hear them talk more about that, and it's going to

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Speaker 4: be early days of first to be able for them

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Speaker 4: to talk about in detail, but they're gonna they have

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Speaker 4: a big picture here for the company. They've already talked

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Speaker 4: about how they're essentially gonna fold Hulu into Disney Plus.

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Speaker 4: They're still going to sell them as separate products or

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Speaker 4: they'll be available that way. Some people might look at

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Speaker 4: it and say it's the reinstantiation of cable GV bundle

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Speaker 4: on the streaming side of it, but the proof is

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Speaker 4: in the numbers that they do get better results when

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Speaker 4: they bundle these things together.

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Speaker 1: As you put it out, the significance of the Peacock

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Speaker 1: Apple TV deal is there does seem to be a

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Speaker 1: coalescing understanding that bundled is in many cases better all right, Todd.

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Speaker 1: The last of the biggies is Warner Brothers Discovery and

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Speaker 1: once again no shortage of swirl going on around them.

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Speaker 1: What are you most interested to hear from David Zasloald

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Speaker 1: and Co.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be stuff he's not going to talk about,

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Speaker 4: which is are they really going to move to seriously

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Speaker 4: negotiate with Paramount and paramount financial partners or are they

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Speaker 4: going to buy their time here, go forward with a

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Speaker 4: plan split and extract.

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Speaker 3: More value that way.

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Speaker 4: So we'll see where the sign hoome's lining up right now.

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Speaker 4: And David Zamsel, of course has been one of the

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Speaker 4: biggest proponents of industry consolidation.

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Speaker 1: There's no shortage of activity and interesting things to watch

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Speaker 1: for in these big companies that we cover. I think

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Speaker 1: it will be telling to hear kind of the general

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Speaker 1: macro commentary about the economy, the impact of tariffs, the

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Speaker 1: impact of the big AI boom that we're hearing more about.

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Speaker 1: But we're also seeing some real strong currents of skepticism

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Speaker 1: about it all. Certainly we will learn some stuff, probably

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Speaker 1: not everything we want to know, but some stuff. Todd,

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Speaker 1: Thank you as ever.

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Speaker 4: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: As we close out today's episode, here's a few things

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Speaker 1: we're watching for. I cannot wait to watch the documentary

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Speaker 1: Stiller and Mira Nothing Is Lost, which bows October twenty

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Speaker 1: fourth on Apple TV. It's the story of influential comedy

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Speaker 1: duo Jerry Stiller and Anne Mira, as told by their

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Speaker 1: son Ben Stiller. Alan Cumming is set to host the

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Speaker 1: AARP's Movies for Grown Up Awards in Beverly Hills on

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Speaker 1: January tenth. That should be so fun. Also, don't miss

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Speaker 1: my colleague Jazz Tonkey's great story on the making of

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Speaker 1: the new animated short Versa by longtime Disney animator malcn Pierce.

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Speaker 1: It's very touching and a reminder that art can help

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Speaker 1: us heal before we go. Congrats to Christina Wiltshire. She's

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Speaker 1: been promoted to VP of A and R for Warner

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Speaker 1: Chapel Music Nashville. She's been with the music publishing giant

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Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen. Thanks for listening. This episode was written

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Speaker 1: and reported by me Cynthia Littleton, with contributions from Rebecca

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Speaker 1: Rubin and Todd Spangler. Stick Snicks hick Picks. Please leave

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Speaker 1: us a review at the podcast platform of your choice,

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Speaker 1: and please tune in tomorrow for another episode of Daily Variety.