Speaker 1: The volume. Hey hoops fans, don't just watch all the
Speaker 1: NBA playoffs action, be a part of it. With fan Duel,
Speaker 1: an official partner of the NBA. Right now, all new
Speaker 1: customers get a risk free bet up to a thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: Just place any bet on the NBA Playoffs and if
Speaker 1: you don't win, you'll get up to a thousand bucks
Speaker 1: back in site credit. The app is easy and safe
Speaker 1: to use, you get your winnings fast, and there's tons
Speaker 1: of betting options. My favorite bet from the first round is,
Speaker 1: I think the Sixers are going to lose to the
Speaker 1: Toronto Raptors. I think it's gonna get ugly for James
Speaker 1: Harden in particular. Download fan Duel, America's number one sports
Speaker 1: book app today using promo code Jason T and place
Speaker 1: your risk free first bet for a chance to take
Speaker 1: home a w on basketball's biggest stage. Remember to use
Speaker 1: promo code Jason T for this amazing offer twenty plus
Speaker 1: in presidents some like states only first on like Real
Speaker 1: when you wait your own doll your first required issue
Speaker 1: is non with probab site credit that expires fourteen days.
Speaker 1: Receive restriction supplied Sepulton. That sports book maintel dot com
Speaker 1: gambling problem called one hunter Tabler, faint dole dot com
Speaker 1: slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and
Speaker 1: winoit Virginia. Und next step or text next step to
Speaker 1: five three three four two in Arizona seven eight nine
Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ slash
Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut. Die one hundred nine with it in
Speaker 1: Indiana dial one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop.
Speaker 1: In Louisiana dial one eight seven seven eight Hope and
Speaker 1: why or text hope and why to four six seven,
Speaker 1: three six nine in New York, Tennessee. Red line is
Speaker 1: one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in
Speaker 1: one hundred five to four seven zer zo or is
Speaker 1: it w WPP dot one hundred tiler dot in West Virginia.
Speaker 1: All right, Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fandel Here
Speaker 1: at the volume, I'm Jason Timp Happy Tuesday, everybody. I
Speaker 1: hope you're all having a great start to your week.
Speaker 1: The playoffs are officially started. I guess the play in tournament,
Speaker 1: which is basically the playoffs. This is gonna be one
Speaker 1: of the most interesting playoff runs of our lifetimes. I
Speaker 1: think there's just an unbelievably loaded field with a ton
Speaker 1: of talent. I personally can't wait. We are going to
Speaker 1: break down that Calves Nets game, which went about exactly
Speaker 1: as I expected, and then we're gonna spend the second
Speaker 1: half of the show focusing on a breakdown of what
Speaker 1: I think is going to be the most interesting series
Speaker 1: in the first round, which is Brooklyn versus Boston. As
Speaker 1: a result of tonight's playing game, I'm not gonna tell
Speaker 1: you guys who I'm picking until the end of the video,
Speaker 1: but I do think that series is going seven games.
Speaker 1: That's how close those teams are. We're gonna get into
Speaker 1: the weeds of what that series is going to look like.
Speaker 1: And then for those of you guys listening on the podcast,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tack on a couple of breakdowns I did
Speaker 1: earlier having to do with the Bucks Bowls series and
Speaker 1: the Sixers Raptors series. I made predictions for both of
Speaker 1: those series. Stick around at the end, and you guys
Speaker 1: will hear those as well. So let's get into this
Speaker 1: game tonight between the Calves and the Nets. So in
Speaker 1: my playing breakdown, my preview that I did, I picked Brooklyn,
Speaker 1: which is to be expected. They're the better team, But
Speaker 1: the big reason why I picked Brooklyn is because of
Speaker 1: the fact that Brooklyn's perimeter initiators are so much better
Speaker 1: than Cleveland's, which goes without saying. How However, Cleveland lost
Speaker 1: their biggest advantage in that matchup With Jared Allen on
Speaker 1: the floor, the front court of the Cavaliers would be
Speaker 1: so imposing as to allow the Calves some margin for
Speaker 1: air with their stars, because obviously Derris Garland, Darius Garland
Speaker 1: and Carris Lavert can't go punch for punch with Kyrie
Speaker 1: Irving and Kevin Duray. That's an absurd thing to expect
Speaker 1: to happen, So you have to have advantages elsewhere on
Speaker 1: the floor in order to make up for that. I
Speaker 1: talked about this a lot in my breakdown of the
Speaker 1: Bucks Bulls series, which you guys will hear later. So
Speaker 1: if I'm trying to over I'll play Janice with DeMar
Speaker 1: Dea Rosen. That's not gonna work. But the Bucks are
Speaker 1: really bad at guarding the three point line. So if
Speaker 1: you're a good three point shooting team that generates a
Speaker 1: ton of three point shots, you might be able to
Speaker 1: make up some of that gap. Problem is the Bulls
Speaker 1: don't generate any three point shots. They literally generate the
Speaker 1: fewest three point shots per game in the entire NBA,
Speaker 1: so their ability to attack the book Bucks greatest weakness
Speaker 1: is not there, and so it's gonna be a battle
Speaker 1: of the stars, and the Bucks just have better stars.
Speaker 1: And that's what happened to the Calves tonight losing Jared Allen.
Speaker 1: They lost their interior advantage, which is something that they
Speaker 1: would have been able to use in that type of
Speaker 1: game to try to make up for some of that
Speaker 1: talent disparity, and they didn't have that. So it was
Speaker 1: gonna come down to Kris LeVert and Darius Garland trying
Speaker 1: to go punch for punch with Kyrie Riving and Kevin Durant,
Speaker 1: and that went about exactly as you expected. It was
Speaker 1: forty to twenty after the first quarter. In that first quarter,
Speaker 1: Katie and Kyrie combined for nineteen points. In tennisis Caris
Speaker 1: LeVert and Darius Garland only managed ten points and two assists,
Speaker 1: and they looked kind of out of sorts, forcing things.
Speaker 1: Both of those guys seemed intent to just drive into
Speaker 1: Brooklyn's rim protection to Brooklyn. We're gonna get into their
Speaker 1: defense here in a little bit when we're talking about
Speaker 1: the Celtics series. But Brooklyn has a lot of interior
Speaker 1: rim protection. Andre Drummonds a good rim protector, rim protector,
Speaker 1: Nick Claxton's a good rim protector. And Kevin Durant, who
Speaker 1: you saw hit the gas on the defensive end tonight
Speaker 1: also when he's dialed, and is a very very effective
Speaker 1: rim protector. So when you are playing a team like
Speaker 1: that that has guys camping around the rim, you can't
Speaker 1: drive into them and try to finish that's playing directly
Speaker 1: into their into their strengths. You have to pass out
Speaker 1: of that and try to get open shots away from them,
Speaker 1: or start stop short and go to your floater or
Speaker 1: your pull up fifteen foot or your pull up ten foot,
Speaker 1: or anything other than driving right into the super tall
Speaker 1: guy that's going to block your shot, or you're gonna
Speaker 1: have to distort your shot so much that there's almost
Speaker 1: no chance of it going in. And so that went
Speaker 1: about exactly as I expected. Now, over the course of
Speaker 1: the game, Brooklyn let up a little bit and the
Speaker 1: Calves got back into it. But then here we are
Speaker 1: Calves back within six. Late in the fourth quarter, Katie
Speaker 1: goes down and makes a jump shot of what his
Speaker 1: patented one dribble pull up to the right. Here comes
Speaker 1: Carris Lavert, works into his into the lane, drives into
Speaker 1: a bunch of traffic and trips and falls. He ends
Speaker 1: up kicking it out to Evan mobile and it gets
Speaker 1: worked around. But your perimeter initiator tripped and fell in
Speaker 1: the lane. They go down the other way. Kevin Durant
Speaker 1: makes another to dribble pull up, going along the right side,
Speaker 1: and here comes Darius Scarland gets into the lane, but
Speaker 1: he panics because here comes the ring protector and he
Speaker 1: throws up a jan Kee left handed layup and shoots
Speaker 1: it all the way over the rim. So even when
Speaker 1: things got close at the end of the game, it
Speaker 1: came down to we have Kevin Durant, you have Carass Laverton,
Speaker 1: Darius Scarland. I like our chances, and that's how it went.
Speaker 1: And so in this particular matchup, there's just too much
Speaker 1: star power for them to be for the Calves to
Speaker 1: be able to overcome. That's why it went the way
Speaker 1: that it went. So let's get into this series between
Speaker 1: the nets and the Celtics, which I think is going
Speaker 1: to be an incredibly interesting matchup. So we're gonna break
Speaker 1: this into three sections. We're gonna take a look at
Speaker 1: what the series looks like with the Nets on offense,
Speaker 1: then we'll look at it with the Celtics on offense,
Speaker 1: and then I want to look at the Tatum versus
Speaker 1: Durant matchup, which is how the public is going to
Speaker 1: view it as the although basketball is always a whole
Speaker 1: lot more complicated than that. So let's start with the
Speaker 1: Nets on offense. First of all, the Nets have a
Speaker 1: one point eight offensive rating with k D and Kyrie
Speaker 1: on the floor, which is absolutely amazing. The Celtics with
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brown on
Speaker 1: the floor had to take Robert Williams out of that
Speaker 1: obviously because he's hurt, but with those four guys on
Speaker 1: the floor, they have a defensive rating of nine point eight,
Speaker 1: which is absolutely amazing. So this is the side of
Speaker 1: the floor where you're gonna have one of the best
Speaker 1: offenses that you could possibly have in a playoff series
Speaker 1: versus one of the best defenses that you can possibly
Speaker 1: have in a playoff series. The other thing that's gonna
Speaker 1: be really interesting is I expect the Celtics to switch everything,
Speaker 1: which is what they've been doing all season, but with
Speaker 1: Kab and Kyrie in particular, it's going to test Boston's
Speaker 1: willingness to avoid double teaming. This is something that I
Speaker 1: talked about all season. There's switching defenses all over the league,
Speaker 1: but there's different variations of it. You have teams like
Speaker 1: Boston that don't send a ton of help and leave
Speaker 1: guys on an island and hope to stagnate you. And
Speaker 1: then you have teams like Dallas that send a ton
Speaker 1: of help and a ton of the Toronto is another
Speaker 1: team like this, ton of help, ton of doubling, tons
Speaker 1: of stunting, lots of gimmicky stuff, and there usually is
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunity to swing the ball around the
Speaker 1: perimeter to try to get open shots on the back line.
Speaker 1: But when you're playing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure you can get away with staying in in
Speaker 1: single coverage. You're probably going to have to start sending
Speaker 1: multiple bodies, especially on screen and roll actions to both
Speaker 1: of those guys. This is where the Rob Williams loss
Speaker 1: can be really concerning because this is the it's the
Speaker 1: concept of back line help. So when you send two
Speaker 1: defenders to a screen and roll, Let's say that Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant brings the ball to the floor and he wants
Speaker 1: to work against Marcus Smart, So you come instet a
Speaker 1: ball screen and Tatum and Smart both go with Kevin Durant. Well,
Speaker 1: chances are you're gonna have someone rolling to the basket
Speaker 1: into that short roll area right around the free throw line,
Speaker 1: probably gonna be Bruce Brown or someone like that. In
Speaker 1: that position when you dump the ball there, you're playing
Speaker 1: four on three on the back end, and that's where
Speaker 1: having that back line defender, the guy that steps over
Speaker 1: from the weak side to try to disrupt that action
Speaker 1: becomes so important. And Robert rob Williams has been one
Speaker 1: of the best back line defenders in the league this year.
Speaker 1: Him being out of the picture turns that into yeah,
Speaker 1: Al Horford is gonna be there a lot, but it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of Daniel Tye or maybe they'll
Speaker 1: have to go small. Sometimes it changes that whole dynamic
Speaker 1: on the back line. Bruce Brown played really well tonight,
Speaker 1: but he has at stretches over the course of the season,
Speaker 1: struggled in that type of situation catching the ball in
Speaker 1: the short roll because he doesn't have a great floater,
Speaker 1: he's a little bit under size. He struggles around shop blocking.
Speaker 1: So it's an interesting dynamic there. How the Celtics are
Speaker 1: going to manage when they decide to double team and
Speaker 1: send help at Kyrie and Katie and when they do,
Speaker 1: will they have the athleticism on the back line to
Speaker 1: be able to compensate for that. This is where the
Speaker 1: question becomes, where do you go this year? For the
Speaker 1: most part, the Celtics have been going with Al Horford
Speaker 1: at the four and Robert Williams at the five. Especially
Speaker 1: in pivotal moments, they go huge because Al Horford and
Speaker 1: Robert Williams can both switch onto perimeter players. So with
Speaker 1: Rob Williams out of the picture, you have a decision
Speaker 1: to make. Do you prioritize a guy like Daniel Tye,
Speaker 1: another big who's nowhere near as good as Robert Williams,
Speaker 1: or do you go small and go with someone like
Speaker 1: Derek White, stick with your switching and essentially bank on
Speaker 1: that your athleticism and your effort to compensate with that
Speaker 1: dip in size. I would go with Derek White, but
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a lot of both, But
Speaker 1: it would be interesting to see as the series progresses
Speaker 1: which direction they decide to go. The question becomes which
Speaker 1: matchups do you attack? If you're Brooklyn, So when you
Speaker 1: play switching basketball, usually it's it's kind of it's it's
Speaker 1: a waste of effort to attack the guy you're originally guarding.
Speaker 1: So if Kevin Durit brings the ball off the floor
Speaker 1: and he's going against Jayson Tatum, yeah he can create
Speaker 1: shots against Jason Tatum. But if you know the Boston
Speaker 1: Celtics are switching every screen, why would you waste your
Speaker 1: energy going against Boston's best perimeter defender. You're better off
Speaker 1: trying to find someone else, someone you have an advantage against.
Speaker 1: Was whether that Smarcus Smart or someone like Derek White
Speaker 1: or someone like Daniel Tys or if you like your
Speaker 1: chances against Al Horford. So the interesting dynamic in this series,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna get to this when we get to
Speaker 1: the Celtics on offense, is which matchups are the Nets
Speaker 1: going to attack most frequently? And this is where the
Speaker 1: Rob Williams injury becomes another issue. Whenever you're thirty something
Speaker 1: minutes out of rob Williams is gonna be dispersed among
Speaker 1: a mix of perimeter players like Derek White and you know,
Speaker 1: Peyton Pritchard, guys like that, and a big guy someone
Speaker 1: like Daniel Tye. Right, that just opens up thirty four
Speaker 1: extra minutes where there's a better matchup for a guy
Speaker 1: like Kevin Durant to attack. That's an interesting wrinkle in
Speaker 1: this series I would have picked. To be clear, I
Speaker 1: would have picked the Celtics to win this series in
Speaker 1: five if Robert Williams is healthy. That's how good the
Speaker 1: Celtics were. But Robert Williams was that perfect fifth guy
Speaker 1: to put alongside Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown and Jayson
Speaker 1: Tatum and Al Horford, and taking him out of that
Speaker 1: picture just decreases the Celtics margin for error. That's why
Speaker 1: I think the series is going to be pushed longer
Speaker 1: and probably the seven games. So nets on offense is
Speaker 1: gonna be the most interesting dynamic to this series. One
Speaker 1: of the best defenses that I've seen in recent NBA
Speaker 1: history versus one of the best offenses that I've seen
Speaker 1: in recent NBA history. Those two going against each other
Speaker 1: is going to be really interesting and it's gonna be
Speaker 1: really close and competitive. Let's move to the Celtics on offense.
Speaker 1: So this year, first of all, everybody who's been watching
Speaker 1: the Nets needs to reconsider the way that they evaluate
Speaker 1: their defense. So from the top down looking, you think, oh,
Speaker 1: the Nets are terrible defensive team. They finished your twentie
Speaker 1: and defensive rating. You see all these games where Charlotte
Speaker 1: comes into Brooklyn and Katie and Kyrie are playing and
Speaker 1: they hang like a hundred and thirty three points on
Speaker 1: them and they lose, and you're like, oh, the Nets
Speaker 1: don't play any defense, they don't have a chance. Well,
Speaker 1: we need to throw that out because the reality of
Speaker 1: the situation is with Kevin Durant on the floor of
Speaker 1: the season, they've actually been a pretty good defense. With
Speaker 1: Katie on the floor, they have a one o nine
Speaker 1: point seven defensive rating. It's one fourteen point four with
Speaker 1: him off, and Kevin Durant has been out so long
Speaker 1: this season that that one four teen point four number
Speaker 1: is poisoning the overall metric for the season. So the
Speaker 1: twentie in defense on the season, but they're actually a
Speaker 1: top ten number with Kevin Durant on the floor. That's
Speaker 1: not a perfect logic because every team has bad lineups
Speaker 1: mixing up with their data. But the bottom line is
Speaker 1: is the Nets are actually a pretty decent defense with
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant on the floor. The Celtics on that end
Speaker 1: of the floor have been good, not great. That same
Speaker 1: four man grouping that I told you about, Marcus Smart,
Speaker 1: Al Horford, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown was scoring about
Speaker 1: a hundred and fifteen points per one Hunter possessions with
Speaker 1: that four on the floor. That's an okay number. So
Speaker 1: this side of the floor is gonna be a little
Speaker 1: more interesting on the with the a little bit different.
Speaker 1: The Nets on offense, it's an amazing offense versus an
Speaker 1: amazing defense. With the Celtics on offense, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: a pretty good offense versus a pretty good defense, a
Speaker 1: totally different type of of dynamic. I expect the Nets
Speaker 1: to double Tatum as the series progresses. In their last matchup,
Speaker 1: when the Celtics went into Brooklyn and won that game,
Speaker 1: they left Tatum on an island for the most part,
Speaker 1: and he killed the Nets because he was able to
Speaker 1: attack specific matchups. We were talking earlier about which matchups
Speaker 1: would Brooklyn attack, Who would Kyrie and Katie attack. It's
Speaker 1: gonna have to be someone like Daniel Tyson the minutes
Speaker 1: that he's on the floor, someone like Derek White, maybe
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart if you think you can shoot over the top,
Speaker 1: those are the kinds of guys that they'll be attacking.
Speaker 1: Boston's gonna have better matchups to attack. You're always gonna
Speaker 1: have someone like Seth Curry on the floor. You're gonna
Speaker 1: have moments where you can attack Patty Mills, Kyrie Irving.
Speaker 1: He's an okay defensive player in in certain matchups, but
Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to shoot over the top of him.
Speaker 1: So Boston's gonna have better matchups to attack. That gives
Speaker 1: Tatum a margin for air, which will get into a
Speaker 1: little bit when we talk about the Tatum Durant matchup.
Speaker 1: But I think as the series progresses, the Nets are
Speaker 1: gonna end up having to send multiple bodies at Jayson Tatum,
Speaker 1: which is something that he's been seeing a ton as
Speaker 1: the season has come to an end, especially over the
Speaker 1: course of the last few months. This is where it
Speaker 1: gets interesting because the Nets have a great back line.
Speaker 1: You've got Nick Laxton. You've got Andre Drummond, you got
Speaker 1: Kevin Duran. We talked about that earlier, how dominant they
Speaker 1: were against the Calves tonight. They have a ton of
Speaker 1: size right around the basket, So I expect the Nets
Speaker 1: to overplay the paint in double team Tatum. So it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of Tatum coming off of screen
Speaker 1: and rolls or being doubled in the open floor and
Speaker 1: is making decisions out of the short roll guys like
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart. This is where corner three point shooting is
Speaker 1: is gonna become really, really important. The Celtics are gonna
Speaker 1: get a lot of wide open corner three's against this
Speaker 1: Nets defensive scheme this year, and the Celtics are only
Speaker 1: okay shooting out there. Derek White has been a really
Speaker 1: bad three point shooters since he came to the Celtics,
Speaker 1: but strangely enough, he's actually okay in the corner. He's
Speaker 1: been shooting from the corner since he's been a Celtic.
Speaker 1: Al Horford is right around Marcus Smart's like thirty seven
Speaker 1: percent in the corner. Jalen Brown is like thirty four
Speaker 1: percent in the corner of the corner. Three is one
Speaker 1: of the weirdest shots in basketball. For a lot of shooters.
Speaker 1: It's a shorter distance, but the optics of it are
Speaker 1: very different, and you're usually stationary, which is difficult to
Speaker 1: adjust to in the up and down flow of the game.
Speaker 1: So big part of the series is gonna be will
Speaker 1: the Celtics be able to make corner three's when the
Speaker 1: Nets double Jayson Tatum on the perimeter and they make
Speaker 1: decisions out of the short roll and the Nets overplay
Speaker 1: the paint with their size. That's gonna be an interesting aspect.
Speaker 1: Whether or not the Celtics make those threes could go
Speaker 1: a long way to determining this series. So let's look
Speaker 1: at the Tatum verse Durant matchup. Tatum has ascended in
Speaker 1: my book this season. I call him a bona fide superstar.
Speaker 1: He it's hard to say where he places in the league.
Speaker 1: I put him with John Moran Devin Booker as guys
Speaker 1: who are kind of fighting in that nine ten eleven
Speaker 1: range of players in the n B A like firmly
Speaker 1: beneath the guys above them, but firmly above the rest.
Speaker 1: And they call it like the third tier of players
Speaker 1: in the NBA. That's a compliment to Jayson Tatum. Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant's the best player in the world in my opinion.
Speaker 1: So on the surface, you look at that, like, can
Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum out played Kevin Durrant. That's a lot to ask.
Speaker 1: But this is where those matchups become such an important detail.
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant is going to be going against the best
Speaker 1: defense in basketball and j Jayson Tatum is gonna be
Speaker 1: going against an okay defense. Now, if the Nets double
Speaker 1: him all series long, that takes that decision out of
Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum's hands. I trust Jayson Tatum to make the
Speaker 1: right plate, get the ball to the short roll, make
Speaker 1: the right reads, and give the Celtics a chance to
Speaker 1: make plays on the back end. But in single coverage situations,
Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum simply has a better selection of players to attack.
Speaker 1: He's going to be able to pick on Patty Mills.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be able to pick on Kyrie Riving. He's
Speaker 1: gonna be able to pick on Seth Curry. He's gonna
Speaker 1: be able to pick on slow footed bigs like Andre
Speaker 1: Drummond on the perimeter. If he gets a chance, Duran's
Speaker 1: gonna have lesser He's gonna have greater defensive players that
Speaker 1: he has to choose from who's gonna attack. You saw
Speaker 1: that specifically take place the last time the Celtics played
Speaker 1: the Nets and beat them up in Barclays Center. At
Speaker 1: the end of the game, Kevin Durant was coming down
Speaker 1: the floor shooting pull up jump shots over Jayson Tatum
Speaker 1: and Robert Williams and Al Horford, and he was still
Speaker 1: making some shots, but they were tougher shots. And meanwhile,
Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum was getting down the floor and attacking Seth
Speaker 1: Curry out of the high post and getting to his
Speaker 1: jump shot and knocking stuff down the Celtic. The Nets
Speaker 1: ended up having to double team him in the open
Speaker 1: floor when he would get Seth Curry in those isolation situations,
Speaker 1: and they were getting wide open looks out of it.
Speaker 1: So again, Durant is the better player. Tatum has an advantage,
Speaker 1: He has more margin for error because his defense is better,
Speaker 1: and Kevin Durant doesn't have the same thing behind him,
Speaker 1: So that would be the interesting dynamic. This is why
Speaker 1: I don't like it when people say, like, if Boston
Speaker 1: wins a series, I wouldn't say Tatum beat Durant. Tatum
Speaker 1: is better than Durant. No, no, no, it's a team sport,
Speaker 1: but I think Durant is a significantly better player. Tatum
Speaker 1: has more margin for error that gives him an opportunity
Speaker 1: to win. So this is as close to a fifty
Speaker 1: fift series as I could possibly imagine. Home court plays
Speaker 1: a big role. Boston's a really, really difficult place to play.
Speaker 1: But Kevin Durant is impervious to that sort of thing,
Speaker 1: as you've seen so many times over the years, including
Speaker 1: his Game five in Game seven in Milwaukee last year.
Speaker 1: In a series this close that is split by the
Speaker 1: thinnest of margins, I have to go to the better player.
Speaker 1: So I'm picking Kevin Durant in the Nets to beat
Speaker 1: the Celtics in seven games based purely on the fact
Speaker 1: that Kevin Durant's the best player in the series. Everything else,
Speaker 1: to me is so split evenly down the middle. Both
Speaker 1: teams have advantages. Both teams, I think will have moments
Speaker 1: in the series where it feels like they're in control.
Speaker 1: Home court will play a role. I think Kevin Durant
Speaker 1: overcomes that. NETS and seven. All right, let's move on
Speaker 1: to the Sixers and the Raptors. This is one of
Speaker 1: the most interesting series in the first round a couple
Speaker 1: of wrinkles. Matisse Tyble is not allowed to play in
Speaker 1: Toronto because he's unvaccinated. I'm not as concerned about this
Speaker 1: because Toronto is a massive help team. They do a
Speaker 1: ton of help, digging, doubling things along those lines. They
Speaker 1: are very disruptive defense. So I think shooting is gonna
Speaker 1: be a very very important factor for the Sixers. And
Speaker 1: I've talked about a lot on the show about the
Speaker 1: difference between using Georgias Kneeing and Matisse Thyble and their
Speaker 1: pros and cons Matisse Tybles this incredibly disruptive defensive player,
Speaker 1: but he's not a great shooter. And Georgia Kneeing is
Speaker 1: at three point shooter at decent volume of guns. He's
Speaker 1: not scared to take any shot, but he's not a
Speaker 1: great defensive player in that trade off. Because of the
Speaker 1: way Toronto plays as an over help, over, double, over,
Speaker 1: overdig over crowd type of team, you need guys that
Speaker 1: can make you pay on the back end, so I
Speaker 1: think Georgia Sneeing might actually be a better option than them.
Speaker 1: So I don't really look at the matissetybel The thing
Speaker 1: is that much of a problem. I think the Raptors
Speaker 1: are gonna win the series in six games. The reason
Speaker 1: why comes down to the fact that this particular Toronto
Speaker 1: team and the style that they play directly is going
Speaker 1: to affect the two best players on the Sixers, and
Speaker 1: we're gonna let's let let's just get Let's just get
Speaker 1: into the weeds a little bit here. So first of all,
Speaker 1: Joe l embat So, the Raptors have won three of
Speaker 1: their four matchups with the Sixers this year in large
Speaker 1: part because of their ability to disrupt Joe l Embiad,
Speaker 1: particularly double teaming. So as Joel, Joe Embiad has talked
Speaker 1: about this a lot. He talked about this in his
Speaker 1: appearance on the JJ Reddick Podcast, but he credit to
Speaker 1: Toronto is one of the best teams guarding him because
Speaker 1: of their ability to just stunt and double and all
Speaker 1: those things that I've been talking about. Here's the issue.
Speaker 1: In those three games, Joel Embiads only played in three
Speaker 1: of the four matchups. In those three games, Joel embiad
Speaker 1: Is only managed eight assists against all of that double
Speaker 1: teaming and all of that overhelping. And this is an
Speaker 1: issue that I've talked about a lot with Joe el Embide.
Speaker 1: It's very similar to an issue that Anthony Davis has.
Speaker 1: He doesn't see help very well. He's not good at
Speaker 1: attracting double teams and making that killer pass. There's always
Speaker 1: passes out of a double team that are easier, but
Speaker 1: that a band in the advantage, like a quick uh
Speaker 1: like Anthony Davis does this all time. Catching the post
Speaker 1: and a double team will common He'll kind of just
Speaker 1: dribble away from the double out to the perimeter and
Speaker 1: just find the first outlet pass to the wing as
Speaker 1: a you know, as a guard does like a V
Speaker 1: cut to try to get open on the perimeter. But
Speaker 1: once that pass has made, the advantage is gone. Now
Speaker 1: you have a guard with the ball thirty from the
Speaker 1: basket and you accomplish nothing. Joel Embiid does a lot
Speaker 1: of that as well. The best post pastors in the league,
Speaker 1: the two in my opinion, are Nicola Yokich and Lebron James.
Speaker 1: What they do is as the double comes, they get
Speaker 1: stronger with the basketball and advance ground and almost and
Speaker 1: and and keep their head up the whole time and
Speaker 1: look for the killer pass the past that compromises the
Speaker 1: defense for you making that double, it's usually to the
Speaker 1: weeks side corner, because good double teams will always take
Speaker 1: away the easy reads and make the longest pass the
Speaker 1: only available pass because if they can make you throw
Speaker 1: a looping skip pass, that gives you more time to
Speaker 1: recover back. But guys like Yo Kitchen Lebron, they're hitting
Speaker 1: that week's side cornerman in the pocket for three every
Speaker 1: single time against these doubles, and if you just stunt
Speaker 1: at that and try to take away the corner three,
Speaker 1: they'll hit a cutter or they'll They're just they're very
Speaker 1: very adept at taking advantage of those types of coverages.
Speaker 1: And Joel Embiad is not for him to only get
Speaker 1: eight assists, and by the way, he had eight turnovers
Speaker 1: as well, so eight his eight turnovers in three games
Speaker 1: against that Toronto aggressive help defense. That doesn't spell well
Speaker 1: for himbiads ability to solve the chess match that will
Speaker 1: be this playoff series. Then we go to James Harden.
Speaker 1: In the two matchups against Toronto as a seventies sixer,
Speaker 1: he's eight for twenty four from the field. He was
Speaker 1: three for twelve in their last matchup, one for eight
Speaker 1: from three three assists but nine turnovers to go with it.
Speaker 1: This just comes down to James Harden's overall decline, which
Speaker 1: is something that I've chronicled in depth on the show.
Speaker 1: We're not gonna get too much into it, but the
Speaker 1: gist of it is James Harden is not athletic enough
Speaker 1: anymore to consistently beat people off the dribble, and everything
Speaker 1: about his game is predicated on rim pressure because when
Speaker 1: he's beating people off the dribble, the defender plays further
Speaker 1: off of him and on his heels, which allows James
Speaker 1: Harden to get quality looks out of his step back,
Speaker 1: which then opens everything else up. But when he's not
Speaker 1: driving to the basketball, defenders are on their toes. They're
Speaker 1: in an advancing position guarding James hard and leaning onto
Speaker 1: that step back. So now the step backs James Harden
Speaker 1: is taking are contested and usually low percentage. He's just
Speaker 1: trying to draw fouls at that point, and he's not
Speaker 1: generating that rim pressure when he's getting to the basket.
Speaker 1: That's when he opens up his ability as a playmaker
Speaker 1: as well. Bottom line, if James Harden can't create quality
Speaker 1: looks against this Raptors defense, the way he used to
Speaker 1: when he was you know, four or five years ago.
Speaker 1: I don't know that they're gonna be able to create
Speaker 1: enough advantages here. The other thing too, the Toronto Toronto
Speaker 1: has had a lot of success against the Sixers with
Speaker 1: a lot of guys out with injury. You've had Fred
Speaker 1: VanVleet dealing with a knee issue that's held held him
Speaker 1: out a lot. They've beat the Sixers a couple of
Speaker 1: times without Fred VanVleet, O g and and Noby has
Speaker 1: just returned. You're going to see a more offensively talented
Speaker 1: version of this Raptors team in this postseason run. There's
Speaker 1: a group in particular that I'm excited to see Fred
Speaker 1: VanVleet with Gary Trent Jr. Then O G. Pascal and
Speaker 1: Scotty Barnes in the front court. That team is. That
Speaker 1: lineup has only played three forty five. It's this year
Speaker 1: that that allows the Raptors to play a lot of
Speaker 1: the same style they've been playing with the younger athletes,
Speaker 1: but with a ton more offensive firepower. This team is
Speaker 1: going to be a huge pain in the butt to
Speaker 1: beat this year, and they have specifically had success against
Speaker 1: the Sixers because of their inability to create advantages against
Speaker 1: the defense like this. And then, last, but not least,
Speaker 1: the Sixers have a similar issue that the Bulls are
Speaker 1: gonna have in their first round series with the Bucks.
Speaker 1: The Raptors give up a ton of three point shots,
Speaker 1: just like Milwaukee does because of their overhelp defense. So
Speaker 1: it's very important for you to be able to generate
Speaker 1: a lot of three point shots in your offense. And
Speaker 1: the Sixers are seven in the NBA and three pointers
Speaker 1: attempted per game, so similar to Chicago, there's a gaping
Speaker 1: issue there with their ability to exploit the raptors very
Speaker 1: specific defensive weakness. So I expect the Raptors to win
Speaker 1: in six games in Canada in front of their home crowd.
Speaker 1: This season, the Bulls lost all four matchups with the Bucks.
Speaker 1: I will be predicting the Bucks to sweep the Bulls.
Speaker 1: I'm not even sure that they have enough advantages to
Speaker 1: take one game off of Milwaukee. I want to start
Speaker 1: by throwing out a couple of stats for you and
Speaker 1: we'll get a little bit into the weeds. And first
Speaker 1: of all, the Bulls are twenty four and paint points
Speaker 1: allowed per one hun possession. It's not a big shock.
Speaker 1: They don't have a great front line, they don't have
Speaker 1: a ton of size and athleticism, and they've struggled defending
Speaker 1: on the perimeter this year ever since Alex Crusoe Alonzo
Speaker 1: ball went down twenty four and pain points allowed allowed
Speaker 1: is a big concern when you're going up against Janice.
Speaker 1: They they are very good at defending the three point line,
Speaker 1: which is interesting dynamic there because the Bucks are one
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the league at generating good
Speaker 1: quality three point shots. The Bulls only give up fourteen
Speaker 1: point three wide open threes per game, which is second
Speaker 1: best in the NBA. The Bucks generate twenty point one
Speaker 1: wide open threes per game, which is second best in
Speaker 1: the NBA. So there's an interesting little clash there. The
Speaker 1: issue is is that as I've always told you guys,
Speaker 1: the but the Bucks have a catastrophic flaw and their
Speaker 1: defense and that they allow a ton of threes there.
Speaker 1: They're sell out to protect the paint and they're bad
Speaker 1: at rotating on the back end to take away three
Speaker 1: point shots. But the problem is is the Bulls only
Speaker 1: attempt point eight threes per game, which is dead last
Speaker 1: in the NBA. So the Bulls are not set up
Speaker 1: to attack the Bucks very specific weakness. So if you
Speaker 1: can't match the top end talent, if you can't handle
Speaker 1: Janice and Chris Middleton, which obviously they can't, the the
Speaker 1: star power of the Bucks is better. You better have
Speaker 1: some advantage out there that you plan on unleashing on them,
Speaker 1: something that they would struggle with. So, for instance, if
Speaker 1: the Bulls were an excellent three point shooting team that
Speaker 1: generated a ton of three point shots, I would say, hey, yes,
Speaker 1: you can't stop your honest, but the Bucks are bad
Speaker 1: at guarding the three point line. You're great at generating
Speaker 1: wide open threes. That's your opportunity to gain an advantage.
Speaker 1: But the Bulls don't have that advantage, which makes me
Speaker 1: feel like this is going to end quickly and it's
Speaker 1: going to end ugly. To look at the matchups the
Speaker 1: way they were guarding each other. In their last matchup,
Speaker 1: they put Alex Crusoe on Chris Middleton. Chris Middleton can
Speaker 1: shoot over the top. I love Alex Caruso, excellent defensive player.
Speaker 1: I would have him on an All Defense team this
Speaker 1: year if he had played enough games, But it's he's
Speaker 1: constantly had a problem with this type of matchup. Not
Speaker 1: not his, not by any of anything that's his fault.
Speaker 1: It's just that shorter defensive players, even if they're very
Speaker 1: very good at what they do, very tall offensive players
Speaker 1: can shoot over the top. You guys all probably remember
Speaker 1: last year a game in Philly where Tobias Harris made
Speaker 1: a game winner over the top of Alex Cruso. It's
Speaker 1: just what happens when a six nine or six eight
Speaker 1: guy goes up against a six five or six six
Speaker 1: guy and has that ability to shoot over the top.
Speaker 1: They put um uh janice. They guarded with Patrick Williams,
Speaker 1: which is to be expected. Patrick Williams is thin, very athletic,
Speaker 1: very good defensive player, but he's thin, not as tall
Speaker 1: as your honest. He's giving up a lot of ground there.
Speaker 1: The Bulls made up for that by doing a ton
Speaker 1: of stunting and crowding and doubling like uh In their
Speaker 1: last matchup, they held you Honest to just thirteen shots. Uh.
Speaker 1: J Honest was content to make the right play, kind
Speaker 1: of just draw in that attention and let his teammates
Speaker 1: go to work. I like that matchup in the sense
Speaker 1: that I think he can hold his own well enough
Speaker 1: with them crowding. I just think the Bucks are gonna
Speaker 1: have tons of success scoring around him. It looks like
Speaker 1: zactly didn't play in their last matchup, but I think
Speaker 1: that's gonna be Drew Holiday there, and then Vosovic is
Speaker 1: gonna be guarding brook Lopez. The only interesting dynamic there
Speaker 1: is brook Lopez is a drop coverage big. When he's
Speaker 1: in the lineup, they run a very traditional drop coverage,
Speaker 1: and Nikola Vusovich is a pickin pop guy. A pick
Speaker 1: and pop is a classic counter to a drop coverage
Speaker 1: because any drop coverage, the big has to to fall
Speaker 1: back to contain the ball handler and the guard has
Speaker 1: to chase over the top. So if the biggest dropping
Speaker 1: back and the guard is chasing over the top and
Speaker 1: the screener pops to the three point line, he's probably
Speaker 1: going to be completely unguarded. They did get a lot
Speaker 1: of wide open looks for Vosovic out of those sorts
Speaker 1: of action, so that's something that you'll see a lot
Speaker 1: in that particular matchup. And then the last matchup you'll
Speaker 1: see is they're gonna put Wesley Matthews on Demarta Rosen Um.
Speaker 1: Demarta Rosen has been the best player on the Bulls
Speaker 1: this year. He's having a fantastic season. Wesley Matthews is
Speaker 1: arguably the perfect type of defender to put on Demard
Speaker 1: Rose And I've talked about this a lot on my
Speaker 1: on my twitter feed. If you guys ever see the
Speaker 1: stuff that I do with basketball videos and skill development,
Speaker 1: like the fade away jump shot, which is what Demarda
Speaker 1: Rosen uses as his bread and butter, it's impossible to
Speaker 1: guard up top. That's the whole point of the fade away.
Speaker 1: You're turning and fading and you're usually initiating initiating contact before,
Speaker 1: so you don't see a ton of blocked fade aways.
Speaker 1: So you're not going to disrupt a guy up top.
Speaker 1: But what you're supposed to do defensively on a guy
Speaker 1: who's taking fade aways is trying to disrupt the base
Speaker 1: as much as you can. Anytime you're bumping bodies and
Speaker 1: post up situations, the refs due allow a good amount
Speaker 1: of contact to go without calling fouls, and if you
Speaker 1: can disrupt the base of the fade away, you can
Speaker 1: affect the lift and those fade aways I always call him,
Speaker 1: they're like dunks. In order to make a fade away,
Speaker 1: you have to get a ton of lift in order
Speaker 1: to get that separation so that it feels like an
Speaker 1: open shot at the top of the shot. So Wesley
Speaker 1: Matthews is an interesting matchup there because he is one
Speaker 1: of the best undersized wing defenders in the league because
Speaker 1: of his the way he disrupts the base. He keeps
Speaker 1: his feet sliding, he sits really low, he is a
Speaker 1: low center of gravity, and he just pushes on your
Speaker 1: base to keep you off balance all the time. That's
Speaker 1: why he's had success in the past against a lot
Speaker 1: of the bigger scoring forwards that we have in the league.
Speaker 1: So I like the way that the Milwaukee can guard Chicago.
Speaker 1: Chicago's uh, Milwaukee's greatest defensive weakness also happens to be
Speaker 1: Chicago's greatest offensive weakness, so I don't think they have
Speaker 1: an advantage there. And the Bulls don't defend the paint
Speaker 1: well and Janice is just an absolute monster in the paint,
Speaker 1: especially in the postseason. As we know, I think this
Speaker 1: is going to be a sweep. I would be shocked
Speaker 1: if the Bulls even took one game off of them.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, that's all I have for tonight. As always,
Speaker 1: I appreciate your support and I'll see you guys in
Speaker 1: a couple of days.