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Speaker 1: Hello, friends, and welcome in to Betting pro CFF Week

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Speaker 1: seven Early Line look Ahead. I am Chris Welsch, your

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Speaker 1: host today, joined by Thor Nye Truman you can find

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at thor ku and Eric Froton cef Froton.

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Speaker 1: We are here to break everything down. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of games. They're all weighted into the second half, so

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Speaker 1: you can sleep in, I think just a little bit

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Speaker 1: unless you know, degenerate like us, and you're still going

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Speaker 1: to have to get some action on the front end

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Speaker 1: of the afternoon is going to be all where it's at.

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Speaker 1: But before we do week six, how did it treat you?

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Speaker 2: Thor good on the prop side. Besides, it was my

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Speaker 2: worst week of the year so far. Took a couple

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Speaker 2: of bad beats. We were talking about someone before and

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Speaker 2: the Missouri not covering I had seven from last Sunday

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Speaker 2: not covering that number when they got the ball back

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Speaker 2: at the end down three, you know, ostensibly driving for

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Speaker 2: the tire the win to throw the pick six there

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Speaker 2: in the final minute, so they lose by ted. That

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Speaker 2: was a heartbreaker, But you know, we're going to get

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Speaker 2: back to the grind and hope to turn that around

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Speaker 2: after one down week.

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Speaker 1: The further, we had a lit a bunch of weirdness too,

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Speaker 1: just that USC almost dropping, Notre Dame dropping Colorado game

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Speaker 1: was really close at the end we got with the

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Speaker 1: watch and the funness. It was a pretty weird week. Croton,

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Speaker 1: any anything of note you want to hit before we

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Speaker 1: move on to week seven.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was another incredible props week. Managed to go

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Speaker 3: fourteen and four on Saturday. You know, settled lines, So

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Speaker 3: that's obviously something people want to be aware of. Myself

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Speaker 3: and Thor. If you saw Thor and you follow him

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Speaker 3: on X, you were serenaded to cats in the Creedle

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Speaker 3: in honor of the great Jaden Creedle, running back for

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Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee State, obviously a household name. Now he went

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Speaker 3: under in his rushing yard. Just that whole game was

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Speaker 3: nuclear with the passing yards. And now we have Tuesday

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Speaker 3: games coming up with a Weezyana Tech and Middle Tennessee

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Speaker 3: State again. Like my gosh, guys, this is why we

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Speaker 3: love college football. Tuesday games, Wednesday games all week long.

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Speaker 4: I can't wait to tell.

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Speaker 1: By the way, shout out to Kats in the cradle.

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Speaker 1: Growing up, It's the song my mom sung to me

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Speaker 1: the most. She was a singer and she would sing

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Speaker 1: it to me for at least twelve to thirteen years

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Speaker 1: of my life. I thought that was her song. I

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Speaker 1: thought she wrote that, And when I heard it out

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Speaker 1: in the wild, I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, what's

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Speaker 1: going on with my mom's song here? And then I

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Speaker 1: realized that Steven's ripping off Mama Welsh. I was like,

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Speaker 1: Mama Welsh's got this done. I grew up with that song.

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Speaker 2: I will hear my head for Mother's Day when you

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Speaker 2: sing her my rendition of Cats in the Creedle.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that'd be great.

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Speaker 1: We'll do it all together. We'll do it together. We'll

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Speaker 1: have us there day.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I like it.

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Speaker 1: We'll do that all right. Well, let's jump into it.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, we are very heavily weighted into the

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Speaker 1: afternoon games. There is stuff. There's lots of early football.

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Speaker 1: As everybody knows. We can football every single day going on,

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Speaker 1: but we're going to be focusing on a lot of

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Speaker 1: the big games towards the end. We do have some

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Speaker 1: focal points from both of these guys that you guys

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Speaker 1: wanted to hit on that arn't going to make the

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Speaker 1: big main conversation. The only early game that we're going

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Speaker 1: to be hitting though, is Syracuse. Syracuse is going up

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Speaker 1: against Florida State. Florida State is obviously five and oher

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Speaker 1: Syracuse four and two. They're zero and two in the ACC.

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Speaker 1: So Thor, let's jump over to that game as the

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Speaker 1: first one. I actually I thought I had written the

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Speaker 1: line down here. Let's hear what the line is and

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Speaker 1: what you've got on your adjusted line in this early

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Speaker 1: slate game that we'll actually care about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing eighteen dropping for the opener. My line,

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Speaker 2: Thoise is Florida State minus fourteen point three. So I'm

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Speaker 2: showing a little bit of value on Syracuse here. The

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Speaker 2: tax baked in there right now. It's because of what

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Speaker 2: al we saw yesterday. Ivy like Syracuse got absolutely blasted

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Speaker 2: by a North Carolina team that appeared even a little

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Speaker 2: bit more inspired with tes Walker back. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: like they had the bounce in their step again. Drake

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Speaker 2: May was awesome yesterday. If Drake May keeps playing like that,

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Speaker 2: this UNC team is super duper danger risk. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, as far as this game goes, a Florida

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Speaker 2: State is not gonna have to deal with a Drake

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Speaker 2: May thrower in this game, and we'll see how it

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Speaker 2: ends up going. But I would leand Syracuse early in

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Speaker 2: the week keep an eye on Johnny Wilson on the

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Speaker 2: Florida State side.

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Speaker 5: He's questionable for this game.

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Speaker 2: Syracuse, I think made it out of the last game

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Speaker 2: more or less intact. So you're getting a little value

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Speaker 2: if you can stomach a bet on Syracuse right now.

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Speaker 1: Fronton, do you think that this line? I know the

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Speaker 1: Syracuse is zing too in the a SEC and everything,

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Speaker 1: but do you think like this hardcore of a battle

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Speaker 1: divisional is this is too big of a number or

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Speaker 1: do you think Florida State is just too good that

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Speaker 1: anything under three touchdowns? Because I see it at like

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Speaker 1: seventeen and a half or so, that is around eighteen.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what do you think on this bet?

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Speaker 3: My problem with Syracuse just where's the real signature win

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Speaker 3: When they went out and they beat a team bell

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Speaker 3: to bell, you know, okay, I mean Colegate Western Michigan,

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Speaker 3: you know, army. But we saw the Purdue game that

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Speaker 3: was a fourteen percent expectancy that they managed to pull

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Speaker 3: off only through the shear and competence of the free

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Speaker 3: coaching staff and how they approached the end of that game.

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Speaker 3: These last two games, you know, you look at Clemson,

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Speaker 3: I mean they handled Syracuse and then also North Carolina

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Speaker 3: last last game. You know, this is just not a

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Speaker 3: very effective offense. You know, passing, We're not seeing much

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Speaker 3: out of Garrett Trader test. We've never had that out

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Speaker 3: of him. They're gonna have to play bullyball, and you're

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Speaker 3: gonna do that against Florida State. I'm kind of skeptical

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Speaker 3: that we're going to get a signature performance out of Syracuse.

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Speaker 3: So I gotta lean with Florida State in terms of

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Speaker 3: where it's at.

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Speaker 1: Do you think do you think it's going to move?

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Speaker 1: Did you already said do you think this line is

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Speaker 1: going to move? Could this cross over three touchdowns?

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Speaker 5: Well?

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Speaker 2: With where they put it, it seems like the book

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Speaker 2: is more afraid of getting some of that Florida State money.

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Speaker 5: They you know where they dropped at.

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Speaker 2: They give themselves a little bit of leeway to get

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Speaker 2: up to the next key number. I don't know though,

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Speaker 2: that it will drop. You know, Benie's seventeen the other way.

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Speaker 2: So this is about where you'd expect it right now.

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Speaker 2: It's a ligned to monitor. But it's a tough one

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Speaker 2: to peg because Syracuse looks so.

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Speaker 5: Bad in the last game. They have past defense issues.

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Speaker 2: You know, Froton was sort of hitting on some of

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Speaker 2: that stuff, but like between the Drake made performance, they

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Speaker 2: got lit up, I mean even by Hudson Card and

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Speaker 2: that that game that Froton was alluding to.

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Speaker 5: Hudson Card threw for three.

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Speaker 2: Twenty three in that game, and you know, and some

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Speaker 2: of these other opponents just couldn't throw, like you know, Colegate.

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Speaker 5: Army, Army. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So you know, again, keep an eye on Johnny Wilson

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Speaker 2: and what his status is.

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Speaker 5: You know, you can you know.

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Speaker 2: It makes it a little bit easier that you can

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Speaker 2: focus more coverage resources on Keyon Coleman. Maybe make it

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Speaker 2: a little bit easier to defend Jordan Travis in the

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Speaker 2: aerial game. But that is sort of the thing to

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Speaker 2: keep an eye on there and Syracuse they're gonna need

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Speaker 2: to modulate that offensive strategy a little bit because it

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Speaker 2: is a bit troubling that you only put up seven

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Speaker 2: points against UNC. UNC's offense, of course, is awesome, and

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Speaker 2: I know that their UNC's defense has gotten better this year,

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Speaker 2: but you would expect a Syracuse offense that can at

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Speaker 2: least run the ball or has in these other games

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Speaker 2: that you're gonna put up baymore in seven points against

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Speaker 2: UNC and they were basically hapless in that game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and with Syracuse, you know, they're twenty fifth in pace.

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Speaker 3: They'reripping off a play every twenty four seconds, but they're

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Speaker 3: eightieth in terms of plays per game. That's a discrepancy

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Speaker 3: that shows that there isn't they've won to play quick,

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Speaker 3: they just.

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Speaker 1: Can't well playing quick is the PAC twelve's game plan.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over to again. We're jumping into like into

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Speaker 1: the noon area at least my time in the afternoon.

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Speaker 1: We've got Cal that's going up against Utah. Cal is

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Speaker 1: three and three currently one and two in the PAC twelve.

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Speaker 1: Utah's four and one, one and one in the PAC twelve.

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Speaker 1: And the line is just under two touchdowns at thirteen

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Speaker 1: and a half that I'm seeing, and that is just

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Speaker 1: about where your line is thor so. This is a

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Speaker 1: pretty even locked in game. Is there a bet you

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Speaker 1: want to jump in on? Do you think this could

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Speaker 1: move in a direction that maybe favors cal? I can't

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Speaker 1: imagine betting cal I? Remember Cal at the very beginning

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Speaker 1: of the year. You even were kind of like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I don't think I was giving you guys enough respect.

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Speaker 1: But then I think it's kind of gone the other way.

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Speaker 1: What do you think on here? Is this a Utah bet?

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Speaker 1: Are you waiting for this to cross?

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Speaker 5: For Cal? Yeah? Cal, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: It feels like they're on the precipice of being a

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Speaker 2: solid team, you know, like they flash it every now

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Speaker 2: and again, haven't quite gotten over that threshold yet. And

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Speaker 2: like you mentioned, my line's right around where the Vegas

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Speaker 2: one is half a point of value.

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Speaker 5: Maybe on Utah.

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Speaker 2: The thing to monitor here or if you you know

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Speaker 2: anyone out there whatever is Utah had so many guys

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Speaker 2: missing the last time we saw them. They've had so

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Speaker 2: many guys missing this entire season. I think the last

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Speaker 2: game it was ten guys that contribute. They didn't play.

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Speaker 2: Bring Keithy and Cam Rising have been the two primary

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Speaker 2: ones that we talk about every week, but there's way

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Speaker 2: more of starters and or heavily used backups that have

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Speaker 2: been out. Now Utah comes off of a bye. I

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Speaker 2: know that initially when Utah was sort of conceiving at

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Speaker 2: least of risings timetable, you know, I'm talking like August,

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Speaker 2: this was sort of where you circled it. It's like, man,

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Speaker 2: can we get by through in the bye week? But

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Speaker 2: will Rising come back? Will will we see Keithy all

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Speaker 2: these other dudes that have been out, you had the

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Speaker 2: bye week, We've had this long leeway.

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Speaker 5: If Utah gets you know, I mean, if they get

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Speaker 5: three four of.

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Speaker 2: Those guys back, I think there's value on Utah on

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Speaker 2: this side, and depending which ones, maybe a decent bit

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Speaker 2: of line value on Utah if they If none of

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Speaker 2: them come back and you have to sort of go

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Speaker 2: with the mash unit that you've had, I think it's

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Speaker 2: a more or less fair line at that point, because

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Speaker 2: I think even the mash unit Utah team should be

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Speaker 2: favored by thirteen thirteen that points against a team like

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Speaker 2: Cal when they're getting them at home where Utah is.

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Speaker 2: There's several of these pack twelve teams that are like

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Speaker 2: this Wazoo, Oregon State Utah just off the top of

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Speaker 2: my head, where they're way better at home than they

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Speaker 2: are on the road. Now Cal has to go to Utah,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean, just monitor the health situation on

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Speaker 2: the youth side first time.

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Speaker 1: What do you think do you think that like this

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Speaker 1: open This looked like this opened up like right about

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Speaker 1: on key. We might not have these big, big spread movements,

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Speaker 1: but there's questions, there's questions around it. So is there

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Speaker 1: a bet for you in this game?

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you what's really interesting about these two teams

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Speaker 3: totally different in terms of your polar opposites. What they

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Speaker 3: want to do this spaval Jape'spavaitol, new offensive coordinator for

229
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Speaker 3: Cal has completely changed the complexion of this offense. They

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Speaker 3: had Bill Muskrave there last year.

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Speaker 5: He comes in.

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Speaker 3: They're currently fourth in pace and they want to run

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Speaker 3: it between Jade and not and Iffonse, both of those.

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Speaker 3: They have a two headed backfield there that has been

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Speaker 3: very effective. I mean when it comes to run the

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Speaker 3: wall they're in. I'm sorry, Sam Jackson, you're not quite

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Speaker 3: for real as the.

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Speaker 5: Song would go.

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Speaker 3: Uh you know my name is the no Yes exactly,

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Speaker 3: Sam Jackson. But yeah, I mean the passing game is

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Speaker 3: is withering and it's a one dimensional offense. But I

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Speaker 3: mean they're putting points on the board for the first

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Speaker 3: time with the Wilcox era. Like Justin Wilcox, a head

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Speaker 3: coach is a defensive head coach it's what he does,

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Speaker 3: and he has turned over the keys to Jake Spavotol

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Speaker 3: to try to breathe some life into this team and

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Speaker 3: to give a little bit of an identity to it.

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Speaker 3: Probably is to play in a Utah team where all

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Speaker 3: they want to do is play slow. I mean they

250
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Speaker 3: want to grind you down. One hundred and twenty first

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Speaker 3: in pace, sixty three plays per game, it's ninety fifth,

252
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Speaker 3: but thirty percent success rate on d that's what That's

253
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Speaker 3: what you tought.

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Speaker 5: Pitching.

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Speaker 3: They know that they can't score. With Nate Johnson at

256
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Speaker 3: the helm, it is uncomfortable watching them trying to pass

257
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Speaker 3: the ball. It's pretty much a blanket under. Anytime you

258
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Speaker 3: can get lines on Utah's receivers, you don't see them

259
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Speaker 3: out there in the props market. So like that's something

260
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Speaker 3: to watch out for. I have a real concern. I

261
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Speaker 3: don't know if Utah can score. Like I tend to

262
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Speaker 3: lean a little bit on the side of Cal here

263
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Speaker 3: just for the sheer fact that we haven't seen Utah

264
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Speaker 3: be able to move the ball consistently, and we know

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Speaker 3: that Cal will at least try.

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Speaker 2: To to Froton's point, jumping off of that with jade

267
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Speaker 2: and not. Of course, he is the enormous part of

268
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Speaker 2: that offense. In this specific matchup, Utah's run defense is

269
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Speaker 2: really good number eight success rate. The thing though, that

270
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Speaker 2: you can potentially get on that run defense, it's hitting

271
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Speaker 2: the long ball. Utah's run defense is eighty second and

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Speaker 2: marginal explosiveness. Interestingly, and this is heading into this past

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Speaker 2: weekend because my numbers haven't updated quite yet as far

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Speaker 2: as some of these advanced ones. By CAL heading into

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Speaker 2: this past weekend with seventy first in rushing success rate

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Speaker 2: on offense, but twenty seven in marginal explosiveness, So it

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Speaker 2: does sort of lean into that Jade and not. If

278
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Speaker 2: he can hit a couple of long balls in this

279
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Speaker 2: one rip off a couple exxplosive runs, that's that's how

280
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Speaker 2: Cal is going to stay within this number. But it's

281
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Speaker 2: basically going to come down to that they're going to

282
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Speaker 2: be fishing for those explosive runs if they can't get

283
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Speaker 2: them there. In trouble, Cal, they're heading into last week

284
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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty first passing success rate on offense,

285
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Speaker 2: one hundred and eighth marginal explosiveness. To Froton's point about

286
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Speaker 2: their struggles with the passing game.

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Speaker 1: Is there a it's right in line, just like the

288
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Speaker 1: spread is the total? Is there underplay at forty five

289
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Speaker 1: or is there something we're looking for?

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Speaker 5: I could see that for sure. Yeah.

291
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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, especially under the osposite auspices of

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Speaker 2: the idea that Utah is going to more inform the

293
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Speaker 2: tempo here, they're going to lead the dance because, as

294
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Speaker 2: Froton was mentioning, they're going to try to grind this

295
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Speaker 2: game to a halt and play like a Iowah Hawkeye

296
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Speaker 2: kind of game. And Cal is going to go speed speed, speed, speed, speed,

297
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Speaker 2: the you know again, like the only thing that could

298
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Speaker 2: you know, start to affect that in the same way

299
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Speaker 2: they can affect the side of this one is how

300
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Speaker 2: many explosive runs? Just shade not get that both those

301
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Speaker 2: the handicaps on both sides sort of comes down to

302
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Speaker 2: your read on that.

303
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 5: All right.

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Speaker 1: Keeping in the Pac twelve, this is the big dog.

305
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Speaker 1: We've got Oregon five and zero against Washington five and oh,

306
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 1: Washington is a three point favorite at home. That's practically

307
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Speaker 1: a pick them when you give that three point at

308
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Speaker 1: home favorite. So Thor, let's take a look. Here is

309
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Speaker 1: their value are their plays. What do you want to

310
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Speaker 1: do with this explosive matchup?

311
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Speaker 5: So this game is awesome.

312
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Speaker 2: I mean, like secretary, tell everybody that I'm busy at

313
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Speaker 2: that time.

314
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Speaker 5: I've got to take it costs. I wish this one

315
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Speaker 5: is that night.

316
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Speaker 2: It feels weird that this, like Titanic Pac twalf clash,

317
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Speaker 2: is in the middle of the afternoon. But yeah, we're

318
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Speaker 2: roping up everything to just pay attention to this game

319
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Speaker 2: while it's going. This one is going to be super fun.

320
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Speaker 2: The line out there right now being three for Washington.

321
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Speaker 2: My line is Washington minus one. I think we're closer

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Speaker 2: to a coin flip, and I think that would be

323
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Speaker 2: most people's perception out there.

324
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Speaker 5: I'm not sure.

325
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Speaker 2: I mean, like, potentially this is an early week bet

326
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Speaker 2: on Oregon, maybe you know, with a little bit of that,

327
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Speaker 2: But I'm not going to be betting this wonder day.

328
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Speaker 2: I'm curious to see what the market does with this. Basically,

329
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Speaker 2: I'm waiting to see will it tick up to three

330
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Speaker 2: and a half. If it drops to two and a half.

331
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Speaker 2: If you've waited and you like Oregon, you could always

332
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Speaker 2: put a money line bet on Oregon. But yeah, very

333
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Speaker 2: very interesting match up here.

334
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Speaker 1: Froton, What do you need to lock in a bet

335
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 1: in this game? This is going to have all the firepower,

336
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 1: But what firepower? What ammunition do you need to lock in?

337
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm right there with Thor. I think

338
00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 4: this is a straight coin flip.

339
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Speaker 3: I think you have to take if you're getting that

340
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:40,520
Speaker 3: field goal and it gets that point, heck if it

341
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,240
Speaker 3: gets over it, I mean it's an auto. I want

342
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 3: the points because I kind of look at this as

343
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Speaker 3: you know the Notre Dame, Ohio State game a couple

344
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 3: weeks ago, where I just feel like it was a

345
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 3: coin flip and it comes down to the last play.

346
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Speaker 3: And with these two teams, I mean they're both pretty

347
00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,800
Speaker 3: much unassailable. If you want to try to look at

348
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 3: what they haven't done, well, well you could. I mean

349
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Speaker 3: Oregon defensively, that's usually the thing that we look at, like,

350
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Speaker 3: all right, you know, Oregon has has some wartz. But

351
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 3: year two of Dan Lanning number two rated in terms

352
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:15,120
Speaker 3: of past performance, fifth and EPA per play thirty five

353
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 3: percent success rate. It's just it's up and down the board.

354
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 3: They've been amazing. If there's maybe one thing I could

355
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,600
Speaker 3: look at, uh, you know, it's Washington and you can

356
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 3: have him on the ground a little bit. They do

357
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 3: have a little bit of ben but don't break tendencies.

358
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 3: We saw Arizona be able to come out and with

359
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 3: Noah Fafida, who had another good game. We will be

360
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,840
Speaker 3: talking about how he played against USC. He's he's so small.

361
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 3: He looks like he's like five to nine. You walk

362
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 3: look at him next to the the offensive line, You're.

363
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 4: Like, where is that guy?

364
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 5: Really?

365
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 3: He makes them look exactly and but uh man, the kids,

366
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 3: the kids got moxie. He he made a couple of

367
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,560
Speaker 3: questionable field side throws, like the arm isn't juiced up.

368
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 3: But dude, he was able to move the ball very

369
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 3: effectively against Washington. That's a real concern. You look at

370
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 3: them sixty fifth against the run too, you know. So

371
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 3: there are ways that I think you can beat Washington

372
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 3: that you know, we haven't seen that out of Oregon.

373
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 3: But in their defense, they've had a tougher schedule, you know,

374
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 3: right out of the gate, Boise State, cal Arizona, Michigan State,

375
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,920
Speaker 3: those are all you know, okay teams with Oregon.

376
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 4: The closest comp we have.

377
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 3: Is Colorado, and we saw what Oregon did to Colorado

378
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,880
Speaker 3: and their one dimensional pass only offense. I think Washington

379
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 3: has to establish a little bit of the run because

380
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 3: otherwise they're gonna have Dan Lanningsde pinning back their ears

381
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:43,159
Speaker 3: and coming after him.

382
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,120
Speaker 4: I think that's a bad scene for them.

383
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 5: Oh, just a couple more points.

384
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,119
Speaker 2: Well, First of all the books that I'm looking at,

385
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 2: it has tag all left at three and a half.

386
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 2: So I think I'm gonna be changing my tune on

387
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 2: this one and punching in a bet on Oregon today.

388
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 2: The other thing is, you know, as far as the

389
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 2: on field handicaps to keep an eye on during the week.

390
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 2: You know people are listening to this, you know, Monday,

391
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,920
Speaker 2: later on Tuesday. Is the status of Jalen McMillan for Washington.

392
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: They need Jalen McMillan out there in this game to

393
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 2: take the attention, if nothing else off of a Dunsay.

394
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 2: And by the way, a Dunday was banged up in

395
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,840
Speaker 2: the last game. They've already said that a Duneesay is

396
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 2: gonna play. We'll see if he's one hundred percent. But yeah,

397
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 2: I mean you have a couple of those factors going on.

398
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,160
Speaker 2: Washington needs to win this game through the air. So

399
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:31,120
Speaker 2: if if that receiving core is depreciated with McMillan either

400
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 2: out or less than one hundred percent, and we'll see

401
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 2: on a dunesday as well, that would be sort of

402
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 2: another data point towards Oregon.

403
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 5: Yeah.

404
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 1: The only thing I was going to point out is

405
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: it looks like there's four points of early value on

406
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 1: the over your line compared to what Vegas dropped. Is

407
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 1: that something you'd rather to hit now.

408
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 5: I would go over?

409
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, So maybe that's the thing you're trying to

410
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 1: hit early.

411
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,640
Speaker 4: You take it under this game, you got both. Yeah,

412
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 4: that's a hundred percent.

413
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I totally agree with my system on that one.

414
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not complete defense optional. You know, Washington's

415
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 2: defense gotten a little bit better. Oregon can play a

416
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 2: little bit of defense as well. But yeah, I mean

417
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,120
Speaker 2: these offenses are absolutely ludicrous, and not one of these

418
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 2: teams is going into this game of like, oh, you know,

419
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 2: you know, let's slow it down, let's suppress scoring and

420
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 2: try No, no, no, this is a we're turn this into

421
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 2: a track me. We're going to outscore you. It's gonna

422
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 2: be bang bang, bang bang the entire game. So yeah,

423
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,640
Speaker 2: for for me, it would be the early week plays

424
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 2: would be both the over and then taking those points

425
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 2: with Oregon.

426
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 5: Probably. Uh, wet my beak on.

427
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 2: That money line too, because I can't see that line

428
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: getting higher. Maybe I'll eat my words by the time

429
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: people are listening to this, but I would be very

430
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 2: surprised if that thing got to four. I'm a little

431
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 2: bit surprised that it's already at three and a half.

432
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 2: But to me, the bet right now is on an Oregon.

433
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: The only negative is we're doing a show right now,

434
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 1: so you can't lock it in or can you? Or

435
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 1: can you a couple of Yeah, totally do a couple

436
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,359
Speaker 1: four win SEC teams. The Texas A and m's going

437
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: up against Tennessee both got four wins four and two

438
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 1: for Texas A and four and one for Tennessee. Tennessee

439
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 1: is a three point favorite early on, so thor is

440
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 1: there a play here? I feel like we've been riding

441
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: Texas A and M some bits here in the last

442
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: early weeks, but Tennessee is the favorite. So what do

443
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: you think?

444
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, my line's Tennessee minus one point six, Although you

445
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 2: do have to say A and M coming off that

446
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 2: tough game against Alabama a physical game and Tennessee coming

447
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 2: off of bye right, so I mean, we'll we'll see

448
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 2: how that ends up manifesting.

449
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 5: But I you know, I don't trust that Tennessee. I

450
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 5: gotta be honest.

451
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 2: I don't trust that Tennessee team. And I like A

452
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 2: and M a decent bed. They let me down on Saturday,

453
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 2: but if one or two plays flipped there, they were

454
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 2: going to win that game. So you know, my lean

455
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: would be an M. But the thing to think about

456
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 2: in your handicap is is there any body blow from

457
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 2: A and M both both just physically from having played

458
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 2: that physical Alabama team, but also the emotional letdown? And

459
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 2: then you know it's Tennessee on the other side of it,

460
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 2: where you know you boost them up a little bit

461
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 2: because they're they're coming in on rest.

462
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 5: All right?

463
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: For Aton, is there a play for you in this game?

464
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: Is Texas A and M scaring you off the home

465
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 1: advantage on Tennessee? Is there something and over a total?

466
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: What do you want to hit in this game?

467
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 3: What concerns me is very simply Joe Milton, all right,

468
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: he gets We talked to Okaid McNamara pretty at length,

469
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 3: you know, last week, and he beat out Joe Milton,

470
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: and then Joe Milton goes to Tennessee and then henderon

471
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 3: to Hooker beats out Joe Milton, and then Jim Milton

472
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 3: comes in and he puts up a big old stinker

473
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 3: against Florida. And that's a team that I'm not particularly

474
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 3: concerned about. You know, that's not a team I really

475
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 3: think is a fully formed, you know, SEC contender.

476
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 5: At this point.

477
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 3: And when it comes to Texas, A and M, they

478
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 3: just dropped seven sacks on Alabama last week. Okay, you're

479
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 3: gonna tell me. I haven't seen Joe Milton be able

480
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: to handle a rush yet in his career. He's a

481
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 3: fifty year senior, and we're supposed to just ascribe, you know,

482
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: a a skill set that I don't think he is

483
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 3: really established. And that's unfortunate because we're talking about Tennessee here.

484
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 3: This is Josh Heipel and they're ranked sixty sixth in

485
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 3: yards per past seven point two yards per pass in

486
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 3: the entire country. Like, this is not the Tennessee of

487
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,719
Speaker 3: last year. I'm concerned about it. I would think, you know,

488
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 3: we might even be trending towards an under. And I

489
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: lean Texas in him thor.

490
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: Your system has got the over on this about five

491
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 1: points too. What do you think about that?

492
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I to me, i'd stay away from the total,

493
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:36,959
Speaker 2: like that's what I want to handicap a little bit

494
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 2: more during the week. But yeah, it is notable that

495
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: that's you know what my system's pointing at. I like

496
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 2: Froton's point about the pass rush.

497
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 5: There.

498
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: You look at Jalen milrose rushing game log this year.

499
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: Here's his rushing totals from the five games you played

500
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 2: in forty eight the first one, then forty four, then

501
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 2: twenty eight, then sixty nine. Nice last game. It gets

502
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 2: me in a minus thirty one. I mean they were

503
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 2: penned him in and like Froton was mention getting after

504
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 2: him that that's the part that you liked about it.

505
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 2: The part that you didn't like quite as as much

506
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 2: as Jayaln Milroe arguably had the best throwing game of

507
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 2: his career in that one. So you know, Joe, this

508
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 2: thing's gonna come down to can Joe Milton hit the

509
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: broadside of a barn when there's open windows? That is

510
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: always an open ended question, right, It's like, is it

511
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: gonna be good?

512
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 5: Bazuka? Joe or is it gonna be.

513
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 2: Is it gonna be the other thing where it's like,

514
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 2: you know, bold drum and he's hitting people in the

515
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: stands with some of these throws.

516
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 5: That's what we're gonna have to see.

517
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: But yeah, he's gonna be under durest, which sort of

518
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 2: complicates it a little bit by lots of pressure on

519
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 2: Joe Milton in this game.

520
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: Well Thor mentions as we go on, he says, we

521
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: got to, you know, look into the week. There are

522
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: things We've got a monitor. One great thing is we've

523
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: got a bunch of great shows for you. You guys

524
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,679
Speaker 1: can check out on Wednesdays we're doing the looks for

525
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: the week. On Saturday mornings, we have got your last look.

526
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: We're doing the very early look here. But how else

527
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: can you check in during the week? Betting Pros. Betting

528
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529
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530
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Speaker 1: rated betters and betters on hot streaks and get instant

531
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532
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533
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Speaker 1: a ton more download Betting prosthapp by visiting bettingpros dot com,

535
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: slash app, or just go to your app store, Apple, Android,

536
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 1: wherever it is, get locked in and.

537
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 4: Follow your people today.

538
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: Follow thor so exactly when he says we got to wait,

539
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 1: you know, while the week is going on. Well, you're

540
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 1: gonna see when he hits it. You can get that

541
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: notification and you can follow. Why would you not want

542
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: to do that?

543
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I gotta I gotta break in here the

544
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 2: organ I mean, we do guys. We record this, you know,

545
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 2: live on Sunday afternoon. So you see some crazy line movement.

546
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: Literally in the last five minutes, that Oregon line went

547
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: from three and a half to two and a half.

548
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: Across the bus, some gross out there just smoked the ducks.

549
00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 2: So the thing that we said five minutes ago on

550
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 2: the show is no longer applicable. The smart folks out

551
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: there we were waiting for that three and a half

552
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 2: and they just nailed it. It'll be interesting to see,

553
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 2: I mean, we might even find this out on this recording.

554
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 5: Are other sharp groups that prefer Washington?

555
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 2: Now that the thing is back to two and a half,

556
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: are we going to get this thing volley back to three,

557
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 2: but man moving one point in five minutes on the

558
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 2: clock at every single book. Uh, someone just fired away

559
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 2: and probably multiple groups with that thing at three and

560
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 2: a half.

561
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 5: So I had to mention that.

562
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: We need like the Organ meter, we need the we

563
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 1: need the Organ Washington meter throughout the show.

564
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 5: It's just.

565
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: Is that the orgmeter. Thank you, thank you very all.

566
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: King of Puns. Froton has absolutely got it.

567
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 5: Uh.

568
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: We you want to talk about a matchup of big

569
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: name slash disappointment, how about USC versus Notre Dame, which is,

570
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: you know, one of the biggest games people are chunning

571
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: in every rivalry matchups. But USC almost loses, takes triple

572
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: overtime and Notre Dame does so six and oh usco's

573
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: barely going up against Notre Dame. And I said this

574
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 1: to you before the show though, I was like, how

575
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: the hell is Notre Dame favored in this game? I

576
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: know USC did not play good, but how the hell

577
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 1: are they favored? Your system has almost the same line

578
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 1: we're saying, Notre Dame minus two. I don't get it,

579
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: So make it make sense to me.

580
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah that yeah, my system has Notre Dame minus two

581
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 2: point two, and yeah, I mean Notre Dame let me

582
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 2: down last day or another one that let me down

583
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: against Louisville, and they were probably the biggest one. It

584
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 2: was like we didn't have a shot in that bat,

585
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 2: you know it. It was like walking into an ambush

586
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: and you saw some stuff in there that concerned you.

587
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 5: People watch it.

588
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: So I'm not going to get into that as much

589
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: as the thing that interested me in the post game.

590
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 2: They asked Jeff Brohm about that afterwards. You know, the

591
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: reporter was like, you know, Jeff, you came in here.

592
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: You guys were obviously super aggressive, Like what was the

593
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 2: sort of game plan? And he was super explicit about it.

594
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 2: He was like, we wanted to get heat on Sam

595
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: Hartman and force him to hit downfield shots on a throat.

596
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 2: I think the term he us was throwing over our head.

597
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 2: And he's like when we saw in those first couple

598
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 2: of drives that it was getting to him and he

599
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: was struggling, you know, throwing it under duress essentially down

600
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 2: the field. Because they also had the intermediate area that

601
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: they had that flooded in addition to the blitzing, it

602
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: was just that they were leaving themselves thin on the

603
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: back end. Hartman wasn't able to make those throws, and

604
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: he was also struggling under duress. You saw him make

605
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 2: some wonky decisions there. He saw bad Sam Hartman. We

606
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: I mean, we know this going back several years, right, Like,

607
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 2: there was like one game at Wake for US every

608
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 2: year at least where it was like you got bad

609
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 2: Sam and all of a sudden, the interceptions just started

610
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: piling up. It'll be interesting to see if other teams

611
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: this year sort of adopt that strategy going forward. The

612
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 2: good news for Sam Hartman and Notre Dame in this

613
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 2: game is us he can't play defense, so you know,

614
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 2: can they generate any heat at all? I don't think so.

615
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 2: And their secondary is not great either. We saw that

616
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: against mister Noah Fafita late last night, a game that

617
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 2: I had to stay up watching until like one forty

618
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: five am because I had a prop on Taj Washington's

619
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 2: anytime touchdown and it win in the double overtime didn't

620
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: end up getting there. I'm still mad Atkayleb Williams for

621
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: only throwing for one touchdown the game running for the

622
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 2: rest of them. But the strategy that was used against

623
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 2: you know again, to discombobulate the heck out of that

624
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 2: Notre Dame offense. I don't think it's available to USC here. USC,

625
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: It's going to be the same old thing. How many

626
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: points can we put on the board and can you

627
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 2: outscore US? I think Notre Dame is more viable in

628
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: this game. They better be more locked in. It didn't

629
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 2: seem like they were super prepared for what Louisville is

630
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: going to do. Pretty surprising, and that was a juiced

631
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: up atmosphere obviously in Louisville. Right now you come back home,

632
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: you get USC traveling across the country. I didn't love

633
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: the way I have to say, I didn't love the

634
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: way USC's aerial offense looked against Arizona. You just project

635
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 2: that one on paper and it's like, oh, Caleb Williams

636
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 2: is gonna throw for you know, three fifty plus year

637
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 2: He's going to row for three or four touchdowns, you know,

638
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 2: like he had been he was on the defense isn't greater.

639
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: It hadn't been before that, but they were at least

640
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 2: doing things to sort of hinder and slow down that

641
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 2: aerial offense. Now, USC did make adjustments. Caleb Williams started

642
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: running a bunch more. He looked like Sam Howells last

643
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 2: year at un so. He just tucking and running all

644
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 2: the time. But yeah, for me, I'm leaning Notre Dame

645
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: right now. That's probably where I would lean. And then

646
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: to the point of the over USC, I mean, if

647
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: that's the way this thing goes, their only recourse is

648
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: just a fire bullets on offense, Go go, go, go go.

649
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: Hope the passing offense is ticking better, and it should.

650
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: I mean, they have the best player in the sport.

651
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 2: You figured that last week was just an off week

652
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 2: with that, and that's going to force Notre Dame to

653
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: play a little bit more aggressive on their offense at

654
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: anyone's scores on USC SO estimates should have a big

655
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: game and you would expect to get a bounce back

656
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 2: game from.

657
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: Hardman forretim, what do you think are you on to

658
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: that over? I feel like this is an over that

659
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: has you written on it. But is there also a play?

660
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: Is there also a play on Notre Dame or you?

661
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: I just don't feel comfortable and up with Notre Dame

662
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: regardless of the systems. But USC really played down.

663
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 5: But what say you?

664
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: Are you on the same side of thor or you've

665
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: got something else.

666
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 4: Well, in all, you.

667
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: Know, full disclosure, I am a USC fan, you know,

668
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: being a Southern California boy here my residents, So I

669
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: am a little bit slanted. That being said, you know,

670
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: you can't look at that game down seventeen to nothing

671
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: to Arizona, and if it weren't for Mario Crystal.

672
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: Balls biblical.

673
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: Fumbling of a game, we be talking about what USC

674
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 3: did down the stretch because they had the ball in prime.

675
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 4: Position, they were ready to go.

676
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 3: It was there, the game was theirs to win, and

677
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: they their final three snaps of the regular session was

678
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: an absolute dumpster fire of the highest order. Everything everything.

679
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, fumble snap, almost an interception on

680
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: a quick out to Brendan Rice where he didn't know

681
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 3: what was coming, and you know the quarterback broke on

682
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 3: the ball and had a chance to take it all

683
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 3: the way down end of the field and then on

684
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: the field goal to win the game, no problem, put

685
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 3: it on ice.

686
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 4: They fumbled this.

687
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: A bad snap, it goes high, they don't even get

688
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 3: the kickoff.

689
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 5: It was.

690
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 3: It was uncomfortable to watch leading that into overtime, like

691
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 3: they deserve to lose that game based on the sharing competency,

692
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 3: and you see that in the post game win expected

693
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: I mean that twenty eight percent post game win expectancy.

694
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: They had no business winning that game.

695
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 3: But that being said, you know, you go over to

696
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 3: Notre Dame and as Thor talked about with coach Brahm's

697
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 3: straight strategium, Jeff Jeff Brom is no stranger to Sam Hartman.

698
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: Like everybody you know, we know Sam Hartman is. He

699
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: has as much tape since twenty eighteen. He was a

700
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: starter until Jamie Newman came in and displaced him for

701
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 3: a season. But over the last two seasons, Sam Hartman

702
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 3: threw more downfield twenty plus yard passes than any QB

703
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 3: in the sport by significant margin. He's thrown off one

704
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 3: hundred of them a season, like far and away the most.

705
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 5: The problem is.

706
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 3: This year, look at the receiving core for Notre Dame.

707
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 3: Jayden Thomas was injured, you know for that Pascal games.

708
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 3: He comes back. He's a big sort of you know,

709
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 3: battleship type guy. They don't have the dynamicism of you know,

710
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: Kevin Austen when Claypool was there. They've been searching for

711
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: that outside identity and it hurt him last year because

712
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 3: they had to lean on Michael Mayer, who was great,

713
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: but you know he has proven, at least so far,

714
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: he's not Sam Laporta.

715
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 4: Right, right. I know you believe that Thorpe, but you.

716
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 3: Know there's not that dynamic weapon on the outside that

717
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 3: Sam can throw it to. And and Brom knows that

718
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: he's watching these these games just like we are, and

719
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 3: they're just struggling to move the ball in chunks, you.

720
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:51,479
Speaker 4: Know, in that fashion.

721
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 3: So they have to rely on Mitchell Evans the tight

722
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 3: end who gets pounded with targets because they don't have

723
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 3: the recourse there. That's a real concern for me. And

724
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 3: since since Notre Dame lost that game in Ohio State,

725
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 3: they had a ninety six percent win expectancy and they

726
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 3: lost on the last play that they went and survived Duke.

727
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 3: I mean, they weren't ready for Duke after that game

728
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: that was a clear litdown squat. They barely beat them

729
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 3: fifty six percent win expectancy, and then you saw it

730
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 3: last week two percent win expectancy against Louisville this past week,

731
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 3: they weren't. They were barely even competent in that game.

732
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 3: I just can't support this Notre Dame team where they're

733
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: just reeling.

734
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 4: Post you know, post Ohio State. It's like it affected

735
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 4: them palpably. I don't think they're in a good place.

736
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 4: I can't back them.

737
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: I gotta go to USC all right.

738
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: That's Alex Grinch should have gotten the Kiffin tarmac treatment too,

739
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: the way he coaches a dep straight up, he should

740
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: have gotten.

741
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 4: Fired on the tarmac. But here we are, all right.

742
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: Next game up, We've got Miami going up against North Carolina.

743
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 1: North Carolina you and see is five and oh Miami

744
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: has been a fun team to bet. A lot of

745
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: people in on that four and one. UNC is a

746
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite. Four What do you

747
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: got on this game?

748
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 5: Oh? Man?

749
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 2: Tune in, but you know, like in the lead in

750
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: and then the kickoff and shortly after this is probably

751
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 2: I mean really, it's probably a live betting game, like

752
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: you know, four minutes into this game, just to see

753
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: the disposition of this Miami team off of what we

754
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: just witnessed last night. We were one of the great

755
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 2: coaching travesties. And I'm thinking this in my head, like,

756
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: is you know, is this an exaggeration? It's not one

757
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: of the great coaching travesties of my lifetime watching college football,

758
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 2: where a coach literally took a win away from his team,

759
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: not figuratively, literally took it away and now you've got

760
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: to bounce back the next week. Go on the road

761
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 2: to this North Carolina team where the passing attack was

762
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 2: firing on all cylinders, like we were mentioning before, ended

763
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 2: as teses walker back and Tes, by the way, he

764
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 2: was decent. They targeted him. They wanted to get him

765
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 2: involved in that bonanza where they almost threw for four

766
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 2: un or fifty yards in that game against Syracuse. But

767
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: you know Tes was feeling his way back. So it's

768
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 2: like a couple of the other receivers are the ones

769
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 2: that were truly going ballistic.

770
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 5: You would expect Tes to get better, better, better.

771
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: He was a guy that that everybody thought coming into

772
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 2: the season projected as the wide receiver one. In fact,

773
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: I think mac Brown explicitly stated that's why they went

774
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 2: out and brought him in from from Kent State. So

775
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 2: to be Miami's disposition is going to inform this entire thing.

776
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: If Miami is you know, locked in and motivated to

777
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 2: come back and try to get that win back here

778
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: that's one thing. It's also possible that that it's going

779
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 2: to take them a little bit to get over that,

780
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: and this is not the matchup for that, you know.

781
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: Like they showed some of the kids on the side.

782
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 2: There was one guy in particular, I don't know, he

783
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: had like long hair on the Miami sideline and he

784
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: kept mouthing, this is on the broadcast.

785
00:35:56,320 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 5: He kept mouthing, I'm trying to what the f? What

786
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 5: the F?

787
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 2: Like, you know, it didn't didn't take much lip reading

788
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 2: school to see what he would saying. That team now

789
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 2: has to turn around seven days later, you know. And

790
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 2: by the way, I'm showing a little bit of line

791
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: value on UNC even outside this vacuum right now. UNC

792
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 2: minus four is my line. I would definitely lean with

793
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 2: UNC right now. But this is one you're listening to

794
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,240
Speaker 2: this during the week. The thing to monitor with this game,

795
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 2: even in advance, is just the quotes coming out of Miami.

796
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 2: Are the players discontented about this? Are they sort of

797
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: fixating on this or is all the focus now and

798
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: all the talk you know, we're we've moved beyond that,

799
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: We're only focused on North Carolina. It'll be interesting to

800
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 2: see the quotes too, to try to play a little

801
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: bit of pop psychologist, but just the handicap of it

802
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 2: right now, I would I would lean towards North Carolina.

803
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, fort and also that there's a little bit of

804
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: value on the over, just a tiny but couple points

805
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 1: on thor system on the over, a little bit on

806
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 1: the spread. Is this something you would try to smack

807
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: right now before things? If you know there is a

808
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 1: lot of negative talk out there and the line starts

809
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,439
Speaker 1: to move in the wrong direction either way, what side

810
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: would you want to bet on this one?

811
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 3: Definitely North Carolina. I don't think you can buy You

812
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 3: can't put your hard earned money on Miami after that showing,

813
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 3: and you know what I think, actually, and it's in Miami,

814
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 3: I think that kind of works against them a little bit. Hell,

815
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 3: I'd rather be on the road after that, you know,

816
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 3: if you could, if you could have some sort of

817
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 3: you know, Oh, I'm sorry it's at North caroun I'm sorry,

818
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: I look at the wrong one.

819
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 5: Good, this is good.

820
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 3: They want to be on the road here for this.

821
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 3: But that being said to you know, to illustrate it,

822
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 3: just for to the people watching. They snapped in college

823
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 3: there is a forty second play clock, and as I'm

824
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 3: watching this, I went and looked, and they snapped the ball.

825
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: Miami snapped the ball at thirty four seconds exactly on

826
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 3: a third down, so they have fourth down left where

827
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 3: literally all they had to.

828
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 4: Do was kneel on it.

829
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 3: It's there's thirty four seconds left. If you want to

830
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 3: take us step back and do that little thing and

831
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 3: do it, you don't even have to. There's no nuance

832
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 3: to it. It's just snap it and go down. Victory

833
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 3: formation is called victory formation for a reason. I think,

834
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 3: like maybe subconsciously, the reason why he kind of ran

835
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 3: it is because Don Cheney Junior, who is I mean,

836
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 3: he went through a lot of injury issues, ripped up

837
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 3: his knee last year, comes back. You know his is

838
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: behind Henry Parrish. He took over that role. You know,

839
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 3: he had over twenty carry, He had over one hundred

840
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 3: yards in that game. Was he trying to kind of

841
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 3: get Don Cheney, you know, the confidence and just get

842
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 3: him as many reps as he could for somebody who

843
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 3: you know, was a highly, highly touted prospect come out

844
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 3: of high school, top ten running back two years ago,

845
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 3: and he just wants to get him those game reps

846
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 3: to get him ready for North Carolina. That's the only

847
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: thing I could think that even makes marginal sense. But

848
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: you know, as discussed, these are two of the most

849
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 3: talented teams you know in the ACC, with NC fifteenth

850
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 3: in terms of two forty seven sports Talent comp talent

851
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,959
Speaker 3: rating Miami twelve. So the town is not the issues

852
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 3: are both too excellent teams. But like you said, you

853
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: know the Notre Dame effect we saw after losing a

854
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 3: heartbreaker like that, you know, where you have an eighty

855
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 3: nine percent win expectancy for Miami against a lower rung

856
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 3: team like Georgia Tech who's still trying to you know,

857
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: establish their identity and renew coaching staff. This is a

858
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 3: very troubling spot. Even though the numbers say this is

859
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 3: close to a pick. You know, if you if this

860
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 3: is even the psychological factor of it cannot be underplayed.

861
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 3: I can knot back Miami here.

862
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to Missouri, who I know

863
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: Missouri had some disappointment this week. Missouri, who is five

864
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: and one. They're gonna be going up against Kentucky. Kentucky

865
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite at home,

866
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 1: so we're right in that marker line. All right, thor

867
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: can you back Missouri again? That's really the only question

868
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 1: I can jump in. Can you get back into Missouri.

869
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 2: Never backing Missouri again? You know this, Kansas grad decided

870
00:39:59,040 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 2: to believe in them.

871
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 5: Why again? They should have covered that game.

872
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 2: But I got what I deserved as a Kansas grab

873
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 2: for backing Missouri in that one. I'm sure on the

874
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: line value on Kentucky here, I got Kentucky minus three

875
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: point eight. I feel like the only reason that thing

876
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 2: is under three is because people watch the Missouri LSU game,

877
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 2: where like, Missouri looks pretty good, not realizing that LSU

878
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: has a bottom ten FBS defense at this point, you know,

879
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: and Missouri was just slicing and dicing them as far

880
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 2: as that went.

881
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 5: But then Kentucky obviously looked bad. But Kentucky was playing

882
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 5: the number one.

883
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: Team in my power rankings, So you know, a little

884
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 2: bit difficult to extrapolate two too much off of that game.

885
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 2: Ray Davis and crew and Leary are going to have

886
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 2: far more success here against Missouri defense than against Georgia's

887
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: and Missouri's offense, which had absolutely no problem completing balls

888
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: and as anyone against LGU and then the receivers are

889
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: just you know, they break one tackle attempt the feeble

890
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 2: tackle and then they're just galloping in open space or whatever.

891
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: That is not going to be the same case against Kentucky,

892
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 2: if you know, if you just a race order those

893
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: things you go back. You know, if this was a

894
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 2: week ago and it was a look aheadline, I'm pretty

895
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 2: sure this one would have been sitting more at Kentucky

896
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: minus four and a half minus five, So getting you know,

897
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: two and a half right now, the play for me

898
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: is Kentucky all.

899
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: Right, fronton? Are you on the same front here? Do

900
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 1: you want to lock this in at two and a

901
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: half that's a nice key marker before or are you

902
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: playing the other side?

903
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 3: You know with Missouri, like what's what's the team that

904
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 3: they've beat? Where you go, wow, now there's a dominant

905
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: Missouri performance that I can get behind.

906
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 2: Played South dakostare State right, and then kay State got

907
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 2: smoked by Oklahoma State, who had only beaten I think

908
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: one other FBS team this year. Correct, is exactly where

909
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 2: I was going, my friend and who was piloted by?

910
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 4: Which quarterback?

911
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:45,479
Speaker 5: Oklahoma State?

912
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 4: Who was it again?

913
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 3: British comedy legend Alan Bowman, Allan Bowman.

914
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 5: At the clock to the Cliff Kingsbury days at Texas Tech.

915
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 5: In that one he did he did, I mean he.

916
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 4: Had one hundred and ninety nine yards at halftime.

917
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 3: You know, Chris Cleman makes the adjustments, he ends up

918
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 3: with two thirty five and beats that two thirty three

919
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 3: and a half line and Alan Bowman, which really made

920
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 3: me sad because obviously obviously I had the under Bowman's passing.

921
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 3: But uh yeah, I mean there's no there's no things

922
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 3: you're with like Kansas State that looks that doesn't look

923
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 3: very impressive anymore, you know, and then you got Memphis

924
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: and Vanderbilt leading up to LSU. You know, I will

925
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 3: say this, it needs to be as you mentioned, Brady

926
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 3: Cook's alt line at three twenty five plus passing yards

927
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 3: by DraftKings last week was one of the great alt

928
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 3: lines of all time. Because this is again and you

929
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: heard it from us last week, Thort, We told you

930
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 3: it was gonna happen. LSU's defense is a disgrace in

931
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: every sense of the word. We talk about the tarmac

932
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: treatment Kiffin style. Legitimately we should be talking about that

933
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,320
Speaker 3: with LSU at this point.

934
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:52,959
Speaker 5: But like that.

935
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 3: That was a plus three eighty, you know, four to

936
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 3: one on your money. For Cook to go over three

937
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 3: twenty five plus passing yards you'd done in three previous games.

938
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 3: He's done it four in a row. But now, like

939
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 3: I literally recommended in my show, I said, you need

940
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 3: to spray the board on literally the entire Missouri passing attack.

941
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 3: And they all went over their prop lines four and

942
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 3: oh on the entire Missouri passing attack.

943
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 4: Now you come back around and they're playing Kentucky.

944
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 3: Who again, I mean, this is a top ten d

945
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 3: if you're going and this is even accounting for.

946
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 4: The Georgia thing.

947
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 3: But I mean every other game Kentucky is, you know,

948
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 3: look good, especially against Florida, like they look great against Florida.

949
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 3: You can't run the ball against Kentucky. So at least

950
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 3: Missouri does have an opening where maybe you can throw

951
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 3: because you are to running the ball on this team.

952
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 3: I just feel like Kentucky has too many ways where

953
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 3: they can win this. Whereas Missouri is not going to

954
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 3: be able to Cook to shrader their way down the

955
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 3: field on this Kentucky defense is going to leave them

956
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 3: one dimensional. And with Ray Davis, you know they're going

957
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 3: to be coming after Missouri and the interior of that

958
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 3: defense that is, you know, they're okay against the run,

959
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 3: but in the totality, you know, this is a mediocre defense,

960
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 3: you know, when you're judging by SEC standards, I can't

961
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:12,240
Speaker 3: back Missouri.

962
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: All right, Let's we got two more here on the

963
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 1: main slate, going over to the PAC twelve U c

964
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: l A is going up against Oregon State, both big

965
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: powerhouses in the twelve. Now, I will say Oregon State

966
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: comes in at minus five, maybe even minus five and

967
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 1: a half for the systems down a little bit. We're

968
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 1: back down about a point. I think it was four

969
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: and a half that I just stared at it. So

970
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 1: is this something that you want to wait for some movement?

971
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: Do you want to lock it in now even though

972
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of value, or would you play UCLA?

973
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 1: How are you gonna sparse this one out?

974
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 5: This one is is a wait for me.

975
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: Ucla was one of my better calls last week, you know,

976
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 2: and and look very impressive, the defense, in particular cam Ward,

977
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: who was looking like a world beater before the UCLA's

978
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 2: defense sent them right back to earth. But this is,

979
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,439
Speaker 2: you know, I mean in that in advance of that game.

980
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 2: What I was talking about with regards to Wazoo, it

981
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: was the same thing I alluded to before, where WAZU

982
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 2: is a different team in Pullman than they are away

983
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: from Pulman, and now you had to go into UCLA,

984
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 2: you had to play a really good defense. Now for

985
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: UCLA it becomes the opposite one where now you're in

986
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 2: a bad spot because now you're heading out there to

987
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: court Dallas where Oregon State is awesome and has a

988
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 2: really good cover rate, can play defense for sure, and

989
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: your true freshman quarterback is I mean, that's you gonna

990
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 2: have to play well for you to remain viable in

991
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 2: this game. My system is not really showing much value

992
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 2: on either side. I mean, you know, I do have

993
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 2: the four and a half, it's a five and a

994
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 2: half right now, but you can for sure just bake

995
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: it a point for the fact that it's in core

996
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 2: Dallas and the other team has a true freshman quarterback going,

997
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 2: and it's also not over a key number. So I'm

998
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: comfortable and saying that for me right now, that's a

999
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 2: stay away. But those factors are what you need to

1000
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 2: consider when you're handicapping this game.

1001
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm paying attention to organ State because I took

1002
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 1: Oregon State early in the week in the line. She

1003
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,479
Speaker 1: came back down, but we still covered, so it didn't

1004
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: even have to sweat that too much. For Aton, what

1005
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 1: do you think is there a play for you in

1006
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:07,320
Speaker 1: this game?

1007
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1008
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 3: And great, great call by Philorp because I was I

1009
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 3: was a little skeptical on the UCLA since we hadn't

1010
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 3: seen them play a have a signature win, see him

1011
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 3: play a more balanced team and besides Utah, and Utah

1012
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 3: ran them over, you know, and that's really what they

1013
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 3: don't want to do. They don't want to get into

1014
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 3: a land war, you know, sort of a situation. It

1015
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 3: was a great, great spot against Washington State. Finally we

1016
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 3: saw Carson Steele establish himself as that RB one who

1017
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 3: was him and tore and Harden for you know, the

1018
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 3: early going. But he went and he controlled that game.

1019
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 3: I mean, they were able to just run over the Cougars,

1020
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: but I don't see that happening against the Overgon State.

1021
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 3: Oregon State, you know, is that Utah style play hard,

1022
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 3: d ram the ball down your throat, Jonathan Smith style off.

1023
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 3: You know, you got gotta deal with Damian Martinez gonna

1024
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: deal with the you know, Bishop Fenwick and these guys

1025
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 3: are heavy, two thirty pounds, six foot plus and they

1026
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 3: are coming to lean on you. And I think that's

1027
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 3: not what you know, obviously, UCLA really wants to do.

1028
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, you know, going from Pasadena as

1029
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 3: a southern California guy, lovely game conditions of course last week.

1030
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 3: Now you're going to Corvallis where I'm all, I mean,

1031
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,720
Speaker 3: you have to kind of assume it's going to be raining.

1032
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 3: Dante More originally committed to Oregon, you know, as we

1033
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 3: know or you know, ROOMA two goes to UCLA. I

1034
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 3: like Oregon State here, I am doubling down after you know,

1035
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: being a jilted lover of Wazoo. So I'm going to

1036
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 3: go with the more physical team in my opinion, which

1037
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 3: is Oregon State here.

1038
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 1: In fact, then all right, final one on the big slate,

1039
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 1: acc NC State, who is four and two going up

1040
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:01,959
Speaker 1: against Duke who's four and one. Duke is a three

1041
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: point A lot of these three point you know, just

1042
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: call it. I mean, like I said, I don't want

1043
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: to call them a pick them because it's not but

1044
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,280
Speaker 1: the very standard three point home favorite line we're getting

1045
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 1: We're getting that with Duke, so thor Duke has been

1046
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: playing really, really well. There is a massive, massive, big

1047
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 1: difference in your system versus what is out there. So

1048
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 1: I ask, do we absolutely slam this game early because

1049
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: I'm seeing seven points of value on Duke right now?

1050
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, and in a vacuum there that

1051
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,359
Speaker 2: the problem is the status of mister Riley Leonard, right,

1052
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 2: and that that explains some of that. What's you know,

1053
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,439
Speaker 2: what'll be interesting is you know Leonard out for sure?

1054
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 2: Does it justify that many excess points? And I'm not

1055
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 2: sure that it does. I've seen too much of NC

1056
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: State this year to believe that. And as we know,

1057
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: I mean mister Mike Elco, it's not right Leonard in

1058
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: a vacuum that turned that program around. A bigger part

1059
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 2: of it is their defense, right like they can and

1060
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: by the way, I mean Leonard himself, it's just sort

1061
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 2: of manufacturing stuff. You know, a lot of quick passes

1062
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 2: and you know the ball is going this way, ball's

1063
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 2: going that way. We got the numbers this way, short pass,

1064
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 2: maybe we can get some yak and then you know,

1065
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: scrambles by Riley Leonard. I I'm gonna answer my own

1066
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 2: question here. I don't think that if Leonard is out,

1067
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 2: that's where six and a half points the market's obviously

1068
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: tanya that he is by I would lean Duke Riley

1069
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 2: Leonard or more probably no Riley Leonard.

1070
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 1: All right, Duke NC State, are you going to take

1071
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: that early line a lot of value there. I'm not

1072
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 1: sure what this has moved or what this is going

1073
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: to move, but what's your play?

1074
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1075
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,800
Speaker 3: Sure, as stated, you know, it's the Riley Leonard effect,

1076
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 3: of course, and I don't Having watched a couple of

1077
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 3: games of EVNSI states, I don't feel particularly confident about

1078
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 3: predicting what this team is going to do, especially considering

1079
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 3: they just told Brennan Armstrong to go and hit the

1080
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 3: bricks offensive coordinator.

1081
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 4: You know, they hired Robert and I who.

1082
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,719
Speaker 3: Was at Virginia for a few years, the bronco Menden

1083
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 3: Hall went to Syracuse last year and then comes over

1084
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 3: here and he transfers over Brendan Armstrong from Virginia to

1085
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 3: come and be his QB at NC State, and he

1086
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 3: had wild success with the Cavaliers. However, here with you

1087
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 3: know a similar theme to Sam Hartman, a very inexperienced

1088
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 3: and frankly star starved star star wide receiver corps. You know,

1089
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 3: like who is their signature guy that you know you

1090
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 3: can bank on. Clearly Armstrong didn't have continuity with them

1091
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 3: because they benched him.

1092
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 4: Incomes MJ.

1093
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 3: Morris, you know, former four star who was the starter

1094
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:51,359
Speaker 3: last year before he got hurt, and you're throwing him

1095
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 3: in again.

1096
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 4: They're ranked one twenty.

1097
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 3: Fifth in passing performance NC State with a Robert and

1098
00:50:57,080 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 3: I offense six yards per pass, ranked n EPA per

1099
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 3: play on offense in general, like you can go up

1100
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 3: and down four point eight yards per play. They've never

1101
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 3: been a run oriented team by any means, So like

1102
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 3: what is their offensive identity exactly? There really isn't anything.

1103
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 3: And you know, is their defense been good? Yeah, I

1104
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 3: mean they've been all right, but they're still allowing twenty

1105
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 3: seven a game. Like this is a very flawed NC

1106
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 3: State team. And even if you know Roley Leonard is

1107
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 3: out and you have and and this is the next

1108
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 3: time Henry bellin the fourth he sounds like British Royalty.

1109
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 3: Maybe this red shirt freshman quarterback is able to you know,

1110
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 3: lead the charge here. But I do know one thing

1111
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 3: that the duke defense coach by Mike Elko is no joke.

1112
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 3: Under five yards per pass, that's third in the country,

1113
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:50,959
Speaker 3: one point per drive, fifth, allowing twelve points per game.

1114
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 3: At some point NC State has to move the ball,

1115
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 3: and I just don't think they can. I can't back

1116
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,959
Speaker 3: NSI State in any circumstance against a very well coached team.

1117
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,879
Speaker 1: Final up here, we got a few highlighted thing. We've

1118
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 1: got some adjusted lines and some line movement.

1119
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 4: So let's start.

1120
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 1: We've got two highlighted games that have got some value

1121
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: according to Thor Memphis Tulane, South Carolina and Florida. You

1122
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 1: want to give us a quick little to do about

1123
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:18,399
Speaker 1: both of these games, Thore.

1124
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, my line on the Memphis Tulane game that in

1125
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,799
Speaker 2: Vegas right now, it's two lane minus three. I got

1126
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 2: that thing as a pick them. So I'm showing some

1127
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 2: value there on on Memphis as far as that one

1128
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 2: goes Memphis at home, big game for Memphis and that

1129
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 2: car crowd is going to be charged up. It's a

1130
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: Friday night game. And the other one of South Florida.

1131
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Florida. I think this was a reverse line right.

1132
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,719
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, oh yeah, that's right, that's right.

1133
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well it's funny when we got on this show,

1134
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 2: the lines have been moving all over the place. You know,

1135
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 2: we mentioned in the Washington Oregon one before it toggled

1136
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: back up to three, you know, in past ten minutes.

1137
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 2: This is another Uh, this one's just a slight move,

1138
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 2: but it does zip away or zapp away some of

1139
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 2: that line value that we were talking about when we

1140
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 2: were coming onto the record right now live at South

1141
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 2: Carolina minus two and a half. My line on that

1142
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 2: game is Florida minus one. So so three was the

1143
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,719
Speaker 2: number that I wanted. It's not there right now. We'll

1144
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,399
Speaker 2: see if it gets back to three that that's where

1145
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 2: I would advocate coming in on Florida. But I mean,

1146
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 2: the other thing you can do if it doesn't get

1147
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: back there is maybe take a money line on it,

1148
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: because I think that one's you know, it's more or

1149
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: less a coin flip and maybe even you know, a

1150
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,240
Speaker 2: fifty one and a half percent shot orsel for Florida.

1151
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 1: All right, Forroton, you highlighted some games that have got

1152
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: some big movements, So let us know where the movement

1153
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: is at real quick.

1154
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 3: We'll just domino these through Stanford and Colorado, the look

1155
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 3: ahead line was minus fifteen if you got it before

1156
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 3: games started, and then it opened up at minus ten

1157
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,920
Speaker 3: currently at ten and a half. Then we get to

1158
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 3: West Virginia at Houston opened it plus six and a

1159
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 3: half for Houston all the way down to three and

1160
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 3: a half. Now we might even get I think it

1161
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:08,480
Speaker 3: might even cross that threshold. I really like West Virginia,

1162
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 3: though I don't really subscribe to that. That Houston team's

1163
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 3: interior defense is so pathetic. They got run all over

1164
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 3: by Texas Tech, Fresno State. At Utah State, it's more

1165
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 3: so it isn't the game like but the total my gosh,

1166
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 3: open to fifty two and a half until everybody you

1167
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 3: know basically did a conga line on this. Sixty one

1168
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:32,279
Speaker 3: and a half is where it's hanging at showtime right now.

1169
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 3: That's because we saw Utah State kind of emerge with

1170
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 3: that Gary Anderson offense finally, and Cooper Lagass went nuclear.

1171
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 3: Last game. You're gonna see points in this.

1172
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,840
Speaker 4: Alabama Arkansas opened.

1173
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 3: At seventeen and a half and quickly went right up

1174
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 3: to twenty and a half has already crossed that might

1175
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,839
Speaker 3: even get over that twenty one threshold. Iowa at Wisconsin

1176
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 3: opened up at seven and a half minus seven and

1177
00:54:57,560 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 3: a half. Wisconsin is up to minus nine and a half.

1178
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,399
Speaker 3: I think it probably I keep going. We saw Deacon Hill.

1179
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 3: Anyone who is a Hawkeyes fan has the Deacon blues

1180
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 3: circa the great Steely Dan.

1181
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 5: You want to know who was the starter for a

1182
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 5: ton what.

1183
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 4: He opened three to fourteen?

1184
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 5: I want to know as a starter?

1185
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 4: Oh, okay, fair enough.

1186
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 5: I'm the world till only Deacon Hill fan outside of

1187
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 5: his outside of his family.

1188
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 3: The call all of him and the Crimson Tide call

1189
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 3: him Deacon Hill, as Steely Dan would say. And Boise

1190
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 3: State at Colorado State that opened up at minus nine

1191
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 3: and a half and to Boise State and with a.

1192
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 4: Sixty one and a half total opened at fifty two.

1193
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:43,399
Speaker 2: And a half.

1194
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:44,879
Speaker 4: It's now up to sixty one and a half.

1195
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: So both of those games that we mentioned like a

1196
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,879
Speaker 3: couple of massive mountain west movers, both of them fifty

1197
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 3: two to sixty one, huge moves for each of those

1198
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 3: couple of serious shootouts coming. I can't believe that that

1199
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 3: was a fifty two at Boise State Colorado State.

1200
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: Gentlemen, we had so many games. We've got so much.

1201
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,799
Speaker 1: There's a lot of early betting action you can get

1202
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:07,799
Speaker 1: locked into. If you want to make sure you are

1203
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: in line with everything at least that we are doing.

1204
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 1: Make sure you get the Betting Pros app on your

1205
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 1: app store, go to Fantasypros, Bettingpros dot com, slash app

1206
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 1: or the Betting Pros app there and you can get

1207
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 1: locked into following Thor and everybody to get all the

1208
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 1: customized bets that you could possibly need. And also make

1209
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 1: sure that you are following us here on YouTube, YouTube

1210
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros so you're notified when we

1211
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 1: go live. We've got the Wednesday show, we've got the

1212
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 1: Saturday show at eleven am. Farrell and Thor are going

1213
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 1: to get you with everything that you need right up

1214
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,959
Speaker 1: until the end, so make sure you're locked into those.

1215
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,839
Speaker 1: But if you've got the notifications on bing every time

1216
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 1: we're live, you got it plus this early line show

1217
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: so you can lock in some of those early bets.

1218
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:54,479
Speaker 1: Find them on Twitter at thorku Cffroton. You can find

1219
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 1: me at is it the Welsh and thank you guys

1220
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:57,919
Speaker 1: so much for hanging out with us for the week

1221
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 1: seven Early Line look Ahead. We'll talk to you next

1222
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:02,240
Speaker 1: time right here on Betting Pros.

1223
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

1224
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

1225
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:11,680
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1226
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,200
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