1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's talk a 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: little bit about the markets and the economy with Katie Nixon. 8 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 1: She is chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, 9 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: joining us out of Rye, New York. And let's get 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: first to UM your expectations for the number on Friday 11 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: and how it plays into what we heard from the 12 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: FED at Jackson Hole. Katie, Well, good morning and thanks 13 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: for having me. I mean, I guess would be right 14 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: around the consensus for the Friday number around seven fifty, 15 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: a little bit of a decline from UM from last month. 16 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: But I think the point is this data for the 17 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: next several weeks, I mean maybe months, is going to 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: just be really really noisy. As we're seeing UM some 19 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: of this UH this other data command a bit softer 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: than expected relative to UH pre delta expectations. So I 21 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 1: think we're going to be in this period of sort 22 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: of give and take with the with the macro data, 23 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: which I mean again for for investors. It's very consistent 24 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: with what we heard from the Fed on on Friday, 25 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: from Powell on Friday, that you know, he's keeping his 26 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: options open, all right. Well, I think investors need Katie 27 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 1: to keep their options open as well. I'm looking at 28 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: the tenure here, just stubbornly staying around this one point 29 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: three zero level, seemingly in a trading bound. Tough to 30 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: make a living down there at that kind of rate. 31 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: Where are you kind of as you talk to clients 32 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,759 Speaker 1: here and you and your advisors at Northern Trust, where 33 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: are you telling them to go in terms of asset 34 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: allocation right here? Well, you know, I think this is 35 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: a very very important um discussion to have right now, 36 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: because there is this sort of feeling that we should 37 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: be out of bonds because rates are so low. Um. 38 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: But what we're telling our clients is, you know, fixed 39 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: income plays high quality fixed income plays a really important 40 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: role in your portfolio, even at these levels of yield, 41 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: these low levels of yield, which, by the way, we 42 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 1: expect you're going to stay low for probably even longer 43 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: than the market expects. So get used to these uh 44 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: these low yields are going to be with us for 45 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: a while. But the role of fixed and the portfolio 46 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: is to provide you that diversification. And what would seem 47 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: time and time again is during stressful times in the market, 48 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: risk assets all sort of performed the same UM. So 49 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: we want to make sure that our clients have the 50 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,399 Speaker 1: right amount of fixed in. You don't want too much 51 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: because the yields are so low, but you want to 52 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: have uh an amount of fixed income that's going to 53 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: help you meet your your goals during times of market 54 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: stress and not force you to sell risk assets. But 55 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: beyond that, within our risk asset portfolio, I'll tell you 56 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: one area that we like right now. Obviously we like 57 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: US equities that's worth you know, we've seen very strong growth. 58 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,079 Speaker 1: We continue to think we're gonna see from my to 59 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: me into two and perhaps even beyond from an earnings perspective. 60 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: UM the Feds on hold, so you know, the rate 61 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: environment's going to stay very constructive also for the next 62 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: several years. But we also like high yield and we're seeing, 63 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: you know, the credit worthiness of high yield credits improve 64 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: over this cycle, and we expect are going to continue 65 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: to improve and we can see spreads grinds even tighter 66 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: than they are right now. So US equities high yield, 67 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: that's sort of where we're leaning into from a tactical 68 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: perspective and our risk asset portfolio. What kind of taper 69 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: do you want to see? UM? What kind of taper 70 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: you know is helpful to your investors? Right? Well, we 71 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: are expecting the taper to be very slow and very delivered. 72 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: So six and nine months of tapering UM hopefully will 73 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: be sort of back to the future and watching pink 74 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: dry as I think Janet Allen said uh in the 75 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: previous taper. UM, So we don't think it's going to 76 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: be a meaningful event to the market. UM. We only 77 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: have one data point the last time we went through tapering, 78 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: and you know, after the taper tantrum, which is really 79 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: a communication issue, the market really absorbed the taper very 80 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: very well and then starts to focus on the next move, 81 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: which is when are we going to see rates increase 82 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: in For US, we may see a liftop in twenty three, 83 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: but if we do, it's going to be much slower 84 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: and much lower than the market thinks. So given that backdrop, Katie, 85 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: in terms of the equity side of the business, are 86 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: are you suggesting to your representatives and your clients that 87 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: they focus more on maybe the good strong top line 88 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: growth stories maybe in tech and healthcare or um maybe 89 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: go into that lean into that rotation trade which has 90 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: been working so well, which is more cyclical, uh sectors 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: maybe like you know, banks or or energy. Where where 92 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: are you on that discussion? Yeah, I mean, I think 93 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: it's important to take a diversified approach. I think investors 94 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: have learned this year especially that having both is kind 95 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: of the way you want to go, because we've seen 96 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: this pivot between growth and you for example, I mean, 97 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: you know, we've had we had a value of performance 98 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: and now sort of hear a date, growth is edging 99 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,919 Speaker 1: out value. They've both had very good absolute performance, but 100 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 1: we've seen sort of that pivot between growth and value 101 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: happen a lot of time. So we we advise our 102 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: clients to lean into both and not to have to 103 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: pick a side in this um in this race. One 104 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: of the things that we are looking at though a 105 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: lot right now, is helping the quality of our of 106 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: our equity investment. So really looking at a quality as 107 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: a factor and sort of adding that into the portfolios 108 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: as we as we can. Katie, thanks so much for 109 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: joining us. Great to get your insight on what is 110 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: actually an exciting time, even though you know yields are 111 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: low and it may be UM difficult. Your job might 112 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: be more difficult than normally would be UM. Certainly from 113 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: a journalistic perspective, it is fascinating to follow, even if J. 114 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: Powell's intonation could be a little bit more exciting. Yes, 115 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: exactly when he's reading a speech, I just want to 116 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: go with him and just go through it once or twice, 117 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 1: a little coaching. But I mean I found, you know, 118 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: especially his defense of UM the inflation picture and their 119 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 1: inflation take, I thought was spot on, and I think 120 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: um Katie did too. She's got a great note that 121 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: you can check out on the Northern Trust website and 122 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: highly recommend going to wealth dot Northern Trust dot com 123 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: to check that out. Katie Nixon um joining us the 124 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: c i O of Northern Trust Wealth Management. This is Bloomberg. Now. 125 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: We told you at the top of the show about 126 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: thirty minutes ago that we saw the Consumer Board Consumer sorry, 127 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index coming out at one 128 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: thirteen point eight. We were looking for a reading of 129 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: one three and the prior reading was one twenty nine. 130 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,080 Speaker 1: So it looks a little bit soft here. Let's and 131 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators and Surveys from the 132 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: Conference Board. And Lynn, this actually makes sense considering the 133 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: other high frequency data we've seen. Is just is this 134 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: just an end of summer vacation thing, um, a little 135 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: bit of cloudy vision into the beginning of school year? 136 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: Why is this? I think what we're seeing here is 137 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: rising concerns about the delta variant and to a somewhat 138 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: lesser degree, consumers expressing some concern about rising gas and 139 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: food prices. Uh, so we've seen that not only take 140 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: a bite out of how they assess current economic conditions, 141 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: but also pass somewhat of a cloud over their short 142 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: term prospects. So it's virus and inflation, yes, And I 143 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: mean the good news within this is that the employment 144 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: indicators did not really decline substantially, so you know, we 145 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:59,559 Speaker 1: do expect the economy and the job market to remain strong. Hopefully, um, 146 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: you know, can get a handle around this recent surge 147 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: and that will help sort of alleviate some of consumers concerns, 148 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: but it could pose a little bit of a you know, 149 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: headwind to UH spending, especially in person spending. So Lynn 150 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: talked to us on a FOP a little bit on 151 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: that on that labor issue there, because we still have 152 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of folks that are out of work, 153 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: but there's also a lot of openings out there and 154 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: a lot of companies are raising pay How does the 155 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: kind of the labor outlook factor in. I think the 156 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: labor outlook, especially what we're seeing in our report that 157 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: remained more favorable than the economic outlook, which I think 158 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: is good news, you know, to help support spending. We 159 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: do know that at least in terms of claims and 160 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: other labor data, you know, we're sort of getting back 161 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: to more favorable readings. So we hope that will help 162 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: boost confidence in the coming months. And in fact, if 163 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: we take a look at their spending intentions, um, you 164 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: know here too, we saw a little bit of going 165 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: off endurables and autos and home purchase intentions UH, and 166 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: a shift more towards in person. We saw a little 167 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: bit of a pickup and travel intentions UM. So that 168 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: I think was a sort of good news, there is 169 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: at least some willingness to continue to spend. You know, 170 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: we all um watch LYNN and markets very closely. The 171 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: non farm payrolls number. It's been referred to as the 172 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: Granddaddy of economic indicators. Does the consumer care about this 173 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: kind of data? Well, I think, you know, obviously they do. 174 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: It impacts them. It supports consumer confidence. And we've only 175 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 1: had a slight uptick in the percent of consumers who 176 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 1: were telling us jobs are hard to get right, So 177 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: I think that's somewhat favorable news and their outlook. Even 178 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: though we saw a little bit of a decline in 179 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: their outlook regarding where the labor markets headed, it still 180 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: remains very positive overall. So it could be that this 181 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: is sort of more delta driven than jobs driven and 182 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: LYNN work. Some of the sub elemental unemployment benefits are 183 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 1: set to expire in early September. How do you think 184 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 1: that's going to be reflected in the data. I think 185 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: what we're seeing here is we saw a little bit 186 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: of a decline in the percent of consumers have said 187 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: they expect their incomes to increase over the coming months. 188 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: But we know right now from not only this survey, 189 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: but other surveys UM that you know, most people are 190 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: sort of stashing away the extra money. We saw an 191 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: uptick in the savings rate, so at least consumers are 192 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: somewhat willing and able to spend. I think just what 193 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 1: we're seeing here is a little concern about the delta 194 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: variant and that could likely impact in person services over 195 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: the coming months. Is the vaccine rate at all playing 196 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: into this, the fact that you know, certainly from our 197 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: perspective here in Europe, Americans just aren't getting vaccinated as 198 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: fast as we thought they would or as fast as 199 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: we are. Well, I think if we see an uptick 200 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 1: in vaccination rates which have that may help offset some 201 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: of the concerns about UM, you know, the increase in 202 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: the spread of the delta variant, So that would be 203 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: one way to sort of counter the concern. Heylyn, thanks 204 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Lin Franco, 205 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: director of Economic Indicators and Surveys at the conference board. 206 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Joni right now. He's the 207 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 1: CEO of e Toro joining us on the phone out 208 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: of Israel, and I am very familiar with the TORO. 209 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: I worked with a number of your analysts had them 210 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: on various programs. You so, I get it. But you 211 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 1: say you're the world's leading social investment network. That's the tagline. 212 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 1: What does that mean? Hi, and thank you for having me. 213 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: I'm actually here in New York. Um uh so very 214 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: quickly is the largest social investment network. We have twenty 215 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: two million registered users, mostly outside of the US, who 216 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: registered to our social network where our users can trade 217 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: from and free stock trading as well as cryptocurrencies within 218 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: a social network, So everybody can actually see the most 219 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 1: successful investors performance over time UH, their monthly UH performance 220 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 1: as well as their actual portfolio location and communicate and 221 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: collaborate with one another, and then use our patent technology 222 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: to automatically copy the most successful investors. So if you 223 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: see an investor which generated thirty percent returns every year 224 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: for the past five years on average, you just click 225 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: copy with let's say five thousand dollars in it copies 226 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: his entire portfolio into your portfolio for that five thousand dollars, 227 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: and every time he trades, it trades in your account 228 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: at the same time, the same price and the same proportion. 229 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: So he basically brought in the sharing economy into the 230 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: world of trading and investing. So as you think about 231 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: your customer base, JUNI, I mean obviously a big, big 232 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: increase uh since the pandemic. How permanent is that, how 233 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: sticky is that? How do you think about the growth 234 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: of the folks that you know would be interested in 235 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: your platform? First, First of all, we definitely have seen 236 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: explosive growth over the past eighteen months since that I 237 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: would generally say an inflection point that started the rise 238 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: of millennial investors all over the world. In March, we 239 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: just recently announced our Q two earnings this year. Uh, 240 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,599 Speaker 1: and we grew from Q two last year to Q 241 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: two this year between a hundred and twenty and a 242 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: hundred forty percent on various KPIs from registered users, where 243 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: we added more than two and a half million registered 244 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: users just this quarter in Q two. I think we 245 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: are seeing again a very significant secular trend where there's 246 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: a whole generation people who didn't participate in capital markets before, 247 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: both in the US but also all around the world 248 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,439 Speaker 1: in your up in a Asia, who are simply asking 249 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: what to do with our money, where to invest our money? Uh? 250 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: And maybe it starts with a bigger question, which is 251 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: a very big discussion right now all over the world 252 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: what is the value of my money, which again comes 253 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: from a confluence of circumstances of zero interest rates, a 254 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: very big discussion about inflation, UH, and the fact that 255 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: governments all around the world are printing money and at 256 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: unprecedented rates are leading a whole generation to ask, what 257 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: is the value of my dollars or euros or pounds 258 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: and where can I invest my money so it will 259 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: grow over time. I'm not sure if you saw the 260 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: John Paulson interview UM with David Rubinstein we had on 261 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: the area yesterday, but essentially the investor so famous for 262 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: his big short during the crash of the housing market, 263 00:14:55,800 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: said he doesn't recommend buying crypto at all. He thinks 264 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: it's just worthless UM asset that is speculated on because 265 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: of you know, I think what was the line, paul 266 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: limited availability, limited supply of nothing. UM. Do you think 267 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: it matters to UM young investors today? What the hedge 268 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: fund titans of yesteryear think about crypto? I think not 269 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: everybody has to love every asset in order for that 270 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: asset to be successful over time. Not everybody loves Facebook. 271 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: But Facebook is a successful company and a lot of 272 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: investors in a Facebook stock have a scene appreciation over time. 273 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: I can definitely say the same about Tesla stock and 274 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: Amazon stock, who have had a lot of uh negative 275 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: sort of people talk about it in sort of in 276 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: past years, right when when Amazon in the only two 277 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: thousands in Tesla just three, four or five years ago. 278 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: I think, you know, every investor has his own right 279 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: to analyze and to evaluate different markets. There's no doubt 280 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: that the crypto markets one are super interesting and second 281 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: are a sort of a generational asset class. The majority 282 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: of investors any toro are under forty uh and uh. 283 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: The majority of investors a toro hold both equities, so 284 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: both stock markets as well as crypto assets. So I 285 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: would generally say it's great when we have super smart 286 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: people like Elon Musk, Casey wood and and and Jack 287 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: Dorsey talk about crypto and and believe in in bitcoin 288 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: and support it. But you don't need necessarily every investor 289 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: in the world to believe in bitcoin in order for 290 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: it to be successful over time. So generally you should 291 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: always expect some people naysayers, otherwise the price would already moon. 292 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: So you only I guess probably one of the next 293 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: steps that a lot of people are are looking at 294 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: in terms of the development of the crypto market. Writ 295 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: large is some type of regulation. UH. What is your 296 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: view of regulating the crypto market? How do you think 297 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: it should play out? UM? What are your thoughts there? 298 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:26,120 Speaker 1: So we've we've founded ed Toro before crypto was out there, 299 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: and we are a regulated financial institution. Were regulated in Europe, 300 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: in the UK and Australia here in the US as 301 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 1: well as expanding our our regulatory licenses both in Asia 302 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: and the Middle East. So there's no doubt that when 303 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: you think about consumers, when you think about retail investors, U, 304 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: regulators are there to protect customers interest. That is the 305 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: role and that is why a significant part of retail 306 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: investors will eventually work with regulated financial institutions. I think 307 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: regulators are definitely catching up. They see a lot of 308 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: the benefits of blockchain technology UH and its value actually 309 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: to eventually provide both innovation and protection to customers interests UH. 310 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: And I think what we're seeing now, as we see 311 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 1: in any innovation in any market that's regulated, regulators are 312 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,439 Speaker 1: learning and are putting in the rules in place to 313 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: be able from one hand, to promote innovation and to 314 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: to enable efficient markets and the growth of those markets, 315 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 1: and in the same time protect customer interests. And we 316 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: see that with with regulators all around the world. I 317 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: think as in any market that's growing fast and striving 318 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: on limitless innovation, it's it's very important to balance between 319 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: fantastic joy Thank you so much for joining us. We 320 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: really appreciated getting an update their Yuning I see CEO 321 00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 1: of El Toro. Home price gains set another record, fueled 322 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: by bidding wars. Now for some of us, that's good news, 323 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: for others not so much. Let's get the latest. We 324 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: can do that with Sam Dunlop. He's a Chief Investment 325 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: Officer of Public Strategies at angel O Capital Advisors about 326 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: thirteen billion dollars in assets under management. Joining us on 327 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: the phone from Atlanta, Sam, We're seeing these amazing surges 328 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: in residential real estate. UM My question is is this 329 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: a COVID fueled short term anomaly or is this something different? 330 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: You know, it's definitely got some COVID um effects, clearly, 331 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: but I think the real key, uh, you know, really 332 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: going into the pandemic was that we were dealing with 333 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: a pretty significant supply and demand mismatch of single family housing. UM. 334 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 1: You know, prior to COVID, we were very optimistic on 335 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: the housing market going into COVID. UH. Clearly COVID was 336 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: a huge disruption, but coming out of COVID, UH, it 337 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: really exacerbated the extraordinary supply to mean mismatch that we 338 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: currently have. Just the the rise of the millennial as 339 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: well as just the lack of investment in housing after 340 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: the global financial crisis, you know, coupled with the pandemic 341 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: and all time low mortgage rates just has home prices surging. 342 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: I said, So, those are the two key issues then, Sam, right, 343 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: the UM first one the idea that millennials weren't going 344 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: to buy homes. As a result, I guess, uh, we 345 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: weren't building as many as we should have. And the 346 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 1: second is people weren't investing in homes as UM financial 347 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: as a financial asset as well as a residential you 348 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: know solution. And that changed during during the pandemic. Yeah. Absolutely, 349 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: just just not seeing enough units come online, you know, 350 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: to keep pace with uh, the already extraordinary supply shortage. 351 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: I mean, just to give you some context, the National 352 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: Social Association of Realtors, you know, they recently put out 353 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: the single family supply demand gap was approximately six million 354 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: units currently and when you couple the millennials as they 355 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 1: as they come online in the housing market, there's you know, 356 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: expected to be an additional three million units that will 357 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: need over the next five years potentially to meet that demand. So, uh, 358 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: you know, when you had the housing market really at 359 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: the center of the of the last global financial crisis, 360 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: you just had a lack of construction and lack of 361 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: investment to meet those uh, pretty extraordinary macro conditions. So 362 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: this has been a long time coming, but COVID has 363 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: certainly exaggerated the effects. Especially uh, you know that Powell 364 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 1: has taken us not only to the zero bound, but 365 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: you know, continues to buy agency mortgages and treasuries and earnest. 366 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: So talk to us about the mortgage market here is 367 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: I know, there's you know, back in two thousand eight 368 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: with the financial crisis, you know, a lot of it 369 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: was just very poor credit standards, which led to you know, 370 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: people who were barring that probably should not have been barring, 371 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: and so on and so forth. Give us a sense 372 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: of how you view the mortgage market here. Yeah, it's 373 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: a great question, you know, we really look at and 374 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: and and other market participants do as well. Uh, you know, 375 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 1: shameless plug form Bloomberg. There there's a mortgage credit availability 376 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 1: index that the Mortgage Bankers Association puts out that that 377 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: you view on your terminal there. But uh, you know, 378 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: it's the higher that score, the more available credit is. 379 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,479 Speaker 1: And if you look back to the preglobal financial crisis period, 380 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: that index got as high as, uh the mid eight hundreds. Uh. 381 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: And just to give you some context today, you know 382 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: we're in the low one hundreds area. Uh. And you've 383 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: just seen very little credit expansion uh in the post 384 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 1: global financial crisis period, but you also saw a pretty 385 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: significant amount of tightening uh and residential mortgage credit abilbility 386 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: after the COVID crisis. So uh, that index got as 387 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: high as one eighty pre COVID and now it's collapsed 388 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 1: down to the one twenties today. So uh. You know, 389 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 1: as far as looking at mortgages as an investment for 390 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 1: for healthy credit quality, UH, it's certainly an area we've 391 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: been focused on, just because you haven't seen credit credit 392 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: standards really expand, especially from from some of the peak 393 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: that we saw in the pre global financial crisis period, 394 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 1: Is there any concern that we're looking at a bubble 395 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: that could pop? You know? The good news is, I 396 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 1: would say from a from a bubble perspective, and what 397 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: we've been focused on is not only the credit standards 398 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: that we talked about, but just the reduced amount of 399 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: leverage UH and just the reduced amount of fraud in 400 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,239 Speaker 1: our view that that drove that bubble. And the pre 401 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 1: global financial crisis period. You know, not only have mortgage 402 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: credit standards tightened dramatically, but you've just seen a whole 403 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: host of regulation and focus from the CFPB and the 404 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,120 Speaker 1: and the qualified mortgage rules and guidelines that has really 405 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: improved the integrity of the of the origination process in 406 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: the US. So it's not driven by a leverage per se, 407 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 1: which is very important from a health perspective, and just 408 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 1: looking at those fundamentals you're seeing it really driven by 409 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,640 Speaker 1: this supply and demand mismatch that we're seeing and again 410 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 1: a very accommodative fed that we don't see going away 411 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: anytime soon. Sam, thanks so much for joining us. Sam 412 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: dunlap Is, Chief investment Officer of Public Strategies, angel Oak 413 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: Capital Advisers. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 414 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts 415 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 416 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three and on Fall Sweeney 417 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 418 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio