1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's a betting pros college football show. 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports. I'm joined as always by Thor. You 4 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: can thorn Icetroam. You can follow him on the Twitter 5 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: at thor KU. Coming off a big Kansas win, Kansas 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: is one double away Thor from meeting their season win total. Already, 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: you've got to be pumped by your Jayhawks right now. 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 2: Right Oh, I was over. I was over the moon. Yeah, 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: especially after earlier in the day my my Hawkeyes where 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 2: I went to grad school at Iowa, undergrad at Kansas, 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 2: My my Hawkeyes. Well well let's just not talk about 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 2: that one. But the Kansas getting that brought me all 13 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: the way back. I had fallen into a depressive stupor. 14 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: And then Kansas goes, you know, into West Virginia and 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 2: upsets them. What was awesome That that program's on the rise, 16 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 2: and I think you're gonna be getting your third win 17 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 2: for everyone who has the over tickets on Kansas. 18 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll come at some point, maybe. 19 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 2: Even this week. Yeah maybe he could. We'll see it. 20 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: Could, We'll see. I know, I like the over in 21 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: that game for sure. But today up on the show, 22 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna course talk about the Friday games. Still no 23 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: Thursday games, Thoor or not. I mean, look, eventually we're 24 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: gonna get a maction and Wednesday and Thursday games and 25 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: all week long. You know, we kind of wish in 26 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: terms of viewing this could all be like twenty twenty 27 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: where those games every single day, but just not the 28 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: way it works early in the season. So we're gonna 29 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: get some Friday games. We're gonna get some games that 30 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: are running real heavy in terms of where the cash is. 31 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 1: We're gonna go over the top five games, and we're 32 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: gonna take a look at some of the games that 33 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: Thor likes the line on. So let's start with the 34 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: Thursday action here, Thor, Louisville on the road or Louisville 35 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: hosting FSU. Excuse me. FSU is a two point favorite 36 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 1: to and a half point favorite over Louisville. The total 37 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: is fifty six and a half. Seems like you like 38 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: Florida State in this game here, Thor. What is it 39 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: about them that makes you be on the seminoles here? 40 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it tucks. We don't have any Thursday games this week, 41 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: but having the two Fridays, you know, and we're getting 42 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: Louisville again. We saw them last Friday, they upset UCF 43 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: coming off of in the first week. Louisville had no 44 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: show at that game against Syracuse, had just gotten drop kicked. 45 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 2: But yeah, last week they do upset UCF in the 46 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 2: bounce house, and you have to give them respect for that. 47 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: But neither of those teams looked very good. UCF had 48 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: a very strange offensive strategy of trying to let John 49 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 2: ree Plumbley throw the ball a whole bunch. When John 50 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 2: Reeves Plumbley at his last stop, they'd converted him to 51 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 2: wide receiver. They didn't want him throwing the ball no more. 52 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 2: And Gus mills On decided that's how he was going 53 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: to try to beat this Louisville team with a better 54 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: offensive strategy coming from Florida State, and Florida State I 55 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: think matches up really well against this Louisville team. For 56 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: reasons we can talk about. I would lean Florida State. 57 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: My line in that game is Florida State by four 58 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 2: point seven, so I'm showing a little over two points 59 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 2: a line value on the seminofs Florida State's a by 60 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: team for me. Louisville is a cell team. So this 61 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 2: is a perfect marriage. I'm going to be on Florida 62 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 2: State in that game. 63 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: The other team or the other game that we have here, 64 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: Wyoming against air Force in Wyoming, air Force a fourteen 65 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Forty six and a half 66 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: is the over here. I know you like air Force. 67 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: I'll say this for Wyoming and maybe you know air Force. 68 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: I believe they're located in Colorado, right, so maybe there's 69 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: a little bit less of an effect for them going 70 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: into Wyoming. But Wyoming one of the best home field 71 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 1: advantages in all of football because they are higher than 72 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: mile high over seven thousand foot elevation at that stadium. 73 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: A lot of teams come in there get run out 74 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: and gassed. So how do you see this game playing? 75 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: Interesting Friday night matchup between Wyoming and air Force. 76 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny. Both my adjusted spread and my adjusted 77 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: total are almost smack dab on on where you know 78 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: Vegas has I'm like, probably void then huh yeah, So 79 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: I have air Force minus fourteen point two lines fifteen 80 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: on the total forty six and a half live, I 81 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: have forty four and a half. But one interesting thing 82 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: to note about the total, I am showing two points under, 83 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 2: you know, a value of two points to the under. 84 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 2: One other thing is there's only let me conquid. There's 85 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 2: only eight games this weekend that have where the forecast 86 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: is calling for wins above fourteen miles an hour. This 87 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: is one of them, and so it's it's actually I'm 88 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 2: sorry the stat I said before was correct, but I 89 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 2: need to take it a little bit further. There's only 90 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: two of the totals, or two games where the projective 91 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 2: win is over twenty miles an hour, and this game 92 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 2: is one of them. 93 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: Have you ever seen a Wyoming win win chime. It's 94 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 1: just a chain, that's what they say in Wyoming, because 95 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: there's so much win there. It's unbelievable. 96 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, you talk about twenty mile per hour win in 97 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 2: a game where my system just in a vacuum, even 98 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 2: if the weather was perfect, was already you know, two 99 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 2: points under what the vegas total is. We know, I 100 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: mean like it the win starts to statistically over the 101 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: data effect offenses once it gets over like twelve basically, 102 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 2: and fourteen is where you know, you start to see 103 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 2: against the spread numbers for the under you know, start 104 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 2: to cash above what you would think statistically, twenty is 105 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 2: where it starts wreaking havoc on everything. Yeah, we're still 106 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 2: several days away, so you know, forecasters change. Oh yeah, exactly. 107 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: I'm learning that moving to Texas store because living in Arizona, 108 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 1: they're just like, hey, it's going to be hot today. 109 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: You know, that's pretty much the forecast in Texas are like, 110 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: it might rain, it may not, maybe it'll be windy. 111 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: We're not sure. Figure it out, you know. So it's 112 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: much harder than it is in Arizona for sure. 113 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: Yeah. You got a pace a play thing here where 114 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 2: both neither of these teams plays. They both like to 115 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 2: play slow, they both want to run the ball. Air 116 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 2: Force only wants to run the ball. Wyoming is heavily 117 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 2: skewed in that direction as well. So you're gonna have 118 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 2: a running clock this entire game, and again enormous amount 119 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,679 Speaker 2: of wins, which should not affect the run games as much, 120 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 2: but it is going to recavoc on the passing games. 121 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 2: Neither of the passing attacks. Air Force again doesn't try 122 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 2: to throw the ball a ton, but Wyoming, I think, 123 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 2: is gonna have a lot of problems trying to do that, 124 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: so I think they're gonna be running the ball even 125 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 2: more for all these different reasons. The play in this game, 126 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 2: for me, it's the under. 127 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're gonna play anything, hit the under on 128 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 1: that game. Let's go to the games with a significant 129 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: amount of cash. Look the over on the s Florida 130 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 1: State at Louisville game fifty six and a half is 131 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: getting hit up pretty big. Michigan laying forty six and 132 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:47,679 Speaker 1: a half against Yukon is getting a decent amount since 133 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: he laying twenty two on the road against Miami, Ohio 134 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: is getting a good chunk. Coastal Carolina minus thirteen and 135 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: a half versus Buffalo and Old Dominion minus nine and 136 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: a half at Uva. I believe they're play ten and 137 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: a half at Uva is a big chunk as well. 138 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: Are there any any of that group, because there's way more. 139 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: I just want to start with those five, though. Are 140 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: there any of those that you like? 141 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 2: So? I don't know that I'll bet the over in 142 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 2: Florida State Louisville, but I would certainly lean that way. 143 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 2: The adjusted total that we have on that game is 144 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 2: sixty and a half, So you're did you say that 145 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 2: was up to So it's fifty six and a half live, 146 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: so I'm sureing basically four points of value on the over. 147 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: I also think at least Florida State, I'm pretty you know, 148 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 2: we talked about that to start. But like, the reason 149 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 2: I'm super confident in Florida State being able to put 150 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: up some real points in this game is because Louisville's 151 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: run defense stinks and the guy that they had signed 152 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: in the transfer portal to try to address that, Jermaine 153 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 2: Loll for Arizona State, He's out for the year. So 154 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: Louisville is gonna they're gonna have all kinds of issues 155 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 2: defending Florida State's awesome rushing attack, which both with their 156 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 2: Florida State's running backs and also course Jordan Travis is 157 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 2: great outside the pockets, super duper athletic. Another point on 158 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 2: that is Florida State's offensive line has gotten significantly better. 159 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: Last year. They were somewhere in the hundreds in PFF 160 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 2: run blocking grade, like one ten or like something like that. 161 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 2: They're up to like twenty six or twenty seven already, 162 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 2: despite the fact they played LSU. LSU has a really 163 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: good front for whatever else you think of them, they 164 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: have a really good defensive front, so Florida State's block 165 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: them really well. I think they're gonna be able to 166 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 2: run the ball that over, though it's probably gonna come 167 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 2: down to Malie Cunningham, you know, and if they can 168 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 2: get anything going through the air. The last game when 169 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 2: they played UCF, where neither of the teams played very well, 170 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 2: Louisville could not throw the ball, which they also couldn't 171 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 2: in the first game, so we have not yet seen 172 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 2: Louisville throw the ball effectively this year. They had lost 173 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 2: Harrol Over, the Tyler Harrell Over the offseason to Alabama, 174 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 2: brought in that that Hudson kid and then what was 175 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 2: either Kat Bruce Wiggins or whatever, the kid with the 176 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 2: hyphenated name. They're still working it out with their receiving 177 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 2: core and Malik cunning him as accuracy issues as is. Yeah, 178 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 2: their offense had devolved in the last game leak Cunningham 179 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 2: scrambling around. So if you're betting the over, you have 180 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 2: to hope that Louisville is going to score enough points. 181 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 2: But if you want to do a parlay in that 182 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: game of Florida State minus two and a half and 183 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 2: then the over. I would not argue. 184 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: Against you any of those other games Michigan, Cincinnati, Coastal 185 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: Carolina or ODU getting points you like any of those 186 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: other ones. 187 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 2: I'm not on any of them. But the one interesting 188 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 2: one was the Coastal Carolina Buffalo one because is that 189 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 2: son of the tickets are coming in on Coastal Carolinas. 190 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: Ash that's cash. 191 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 2: Oh okay, because there have been some steam moves earlier 192 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 2: in the week. 193 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: On but that was as of like late Tuesday night too, 194 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: So like you know, people will understand, the later you 195 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: get in the week, the more cash, the more tickets. 196 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: So these these should change a lot, but early it 197 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: is coastal for sure. 198 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, Bogman, I forgot what which game we were alluding 199 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 2: to in in the discord that we just did, where 200 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: it's classic pros verse. This is Joe's matchup, and it's 201 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: just so apparent when you're looking at the discrepancy between 202 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 2: the money on the teams and then the ticket the 203 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: percentage of tickets bottom ball teams. This is the G 204 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 2: five version of that where the. 205 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: Sharpp Syracuse Purdue on discord. 206 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but the Sharps are very clearly on Buffalo 207 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: in this game, and the public is very clearly heavily 208 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: on Costo Carolina. And like the joke I said on 209 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 2: there is, I want to be on the pro side 210 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 2: of that. You're gonna win more than you lose. I 211 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 2: probably won't to end up betting that one, but I 212 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: do think it's important to note that the sharp betters 213 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 2: are sort of in mass on Buffalo in that game. 214 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: The next group of five games that we have here, 215 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: Minnesota lank twenty seven and a half versus Colorado is 216 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: lok pathetic, very high total on that one. Georgia Tech 217 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: versus All Miss under sixty four and a half has 218 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: got a big chunk, Wake Forest minus sixteen and a 219 00:10:54,960 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: half against Liberty Washington State versus Colorado State under fifty 220 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: three and a half, and Bowling Green versus Marshall under 221 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 1: fifty two has got a pretty big chunk. So anyone 222 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 1: out of any game out of that group that you liked. 223 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 2: There, I can't. I can't bet on that Minnesota Colorado 224 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 2: game because that's a fair line. My line is right 225 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 2: in line with that. 226 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: It's too close. 227 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's too close Colorado. I mean, like nobody was 228 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 2: lower on Colorado than me. Coming into the season. I 229 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 2: said over and over and over again, the Carl Durell 230 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 2: will not make it out of the regular season. He 231 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 2: is Carl Durell has entered his last you know, weeks 232 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 2: on the job, maybe month or whatever. But I do 233 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 2: not believe that he will you know, he'll make the 234 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 2: twelfth game. I think they're gonna win one game this year. 235 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 2: They're certainly not going to beat the Gophers in Minnesota. 236 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 2: But the Gophers, they they're fine just running the ball 237 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: and letting the clock go if they know that they 238 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 2: can control your offense. You saw a little bit of 239 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 2: this when they played New Mexico State, where they knew 240 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 2: they weren't in danger at all and they could just 241 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 2: hold down New Mexico State's offense. They were just you know, 242 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 2: just run, run, run, run run. You're gonna see that 243 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 2: here where the result of this against the spread against 244 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 2: the spread result is gonna be, you know, it's gonna 245 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 2: be dependent on things that are sort of outside of 246 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: your control, both both Minnesota is prerogative, you know, and 247 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 2: then and then just do they break any of those runs, 248 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 2: you know, or is it or is it just you know, uh, 249 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 2: evaporating the clock or whatever. So so that one's a 250 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 2: stay away from me, but you will not see me 251 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 2: purchase a bet on or purchase a ticket on Colorado. 252 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: That's a lie. I I have significant money on the 253 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: under under three wins, but that that was my last 254 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 2: Colorado bet of the of the entire year. I think 255 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 2: I'm gonna cash that one. The Georgia tech Ole miss 256 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: over under that is right around my adjusted total as well, 257 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 2: uh sixty four and a half. I'm somewhere within like 258 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 2: a point of that, so I probably won't be touching 259 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 2: that one. I understand though, why people are leaning the 260 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 2: the under old missus totals are still a bit inflated 261 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: because of people's memory of the past offense with Matt Cruz. 262 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: Cart doesn't look right yet. Yeah, that's that's the big part. 263 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: Of it, right. Yeah, they have questions at quarterback. There's 264 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: been you know, some nagging injuries in the quarterback room already. 265 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,559 Speaker 2: The running back room, it seems like they're still figuring 266 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 2: it out. Zach Evans has has been getting the usage, 267 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 2: but like behind him, it seems like Lane's still trying 268 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 2: to figure out, like how do I use the guys 269 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 2: behind him different stuff like that. I don't love their 270 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 2: receiving core yet. It does have some some flash players, 271 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 2: but we'll have to see how it ends up Coalessing. 272 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 2: But but the offense certainly is a is a bit 273 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 2: down from where it's been the last couple of years, 274 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 2: at least a step backwards. And then on the other 275 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 2: side we see Jorgia Tech's offense enough at this point 276 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 2: now the question isn't so much like how much are 277 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 2: you gonna score as how long does Simms keep his job? 278 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 2: So you might see both these teams doing doing wonky 279 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 2: stuff like that. I probably like, if I had to 280 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 2: bet it, I probably would bet the under. But I 281 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 2: just don't see a ton of value on it. I 282 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 2: do understand it. The wake Forest Liberty game is very 283 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 2: interesting to me. Where you know, last week we had 284 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 2: wake Force opened as a six and a half point 285 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 2: favorite to Vanderbilt. That was before the news of Hartman 286 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 2: came out. Then we got the news that Sam Hartman 287 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 2: was going to come back. It was very unexpected because 288 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 2: we had thought that Hartman was going to be out, 289 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 2: who knows, maybe even for the whole season, maybe half 290 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: the season. Nobody thought it was only going to be 291 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 2: one game because of the way that Wake Force had 292 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 2: presented it to the public. So getting him back that 293 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 2: was sort of shocking. That line had then you know, 294 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 2: toggled way up and you know, twelve and a half. 295 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 2: I think it ended at thirteen and a half, maybe 296 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 2: even fourteen by kick. I'm not sure they look good 297 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 2: against Vanderbilt. So you got sort of a proof of 298 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 2: concept and a Vanderbilt team that they've improved a little bit, 299 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 2: right like they're they're. 300 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: They're better than they have been, They're better. 301 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 2: Than We'll just leave it at that. So it wasn't 302 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 2: like running over Colorado, for instance. But and then on 303 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 2: the liberty side, they're coming off of that upset win 304 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 2: over UAB. You know, one of my favorite plays of 305 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 2: last week where I didn't expect that offense to drop 306 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 2: off at all any between Los Charlie Brewer, their starting quarterback, 307 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: and then the freshman coming in, Uh Salter, because Sulter 308 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 2: was a dual threat whose game evokesmore Malik Willis, whereas 309 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 2: Charlie Brewer is the complete opposite of that. That you 310 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 2: would like if I had my d like, if you 311 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 2: remove the context from all of it, I would probably 312 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 2: lean towards liberty on that one. The issue is is 313 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 2: last week they had that big upset over Ua b 314 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: Ua b a team who's won their conference a bunch 315 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 2: in recent years, has been one of the better G 316 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 2: five teams. You get that upset win. Now you're turning around. Uh, 317 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: is the effort gonna be as good as it was 318 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 2: last week? Or is there gonna be a slight deflation? Uh? Well, 319 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: we'll have to see on that, but that one's probably 320 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 2: a stay away from me. Washington State now coming off 321 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 2: of that that big upset win. 322 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: This one, Yeah, this is one of my favorite bets 323 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: of the week. Thor this under. Washington State has had 324 00:15:54,960 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: nothing so far, but really, uh, it's Colorado State that 325 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: has done nothing. A team in transition moving to a 326 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: heavy pass with a roster that was run heavy. They 327 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: had negative rushing yards last week. It's the sack yards. 328 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: But I did the math and if you take away 329 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: the yards that they've lost for sacks, they go from 330 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty thirtieth to one hundred and twenty 331 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: first in rush yards. They don't they don't take a 332 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: big jump. So I love the under in this game. 333 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: This looks like Patheticsville. 334 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked, you know, generally in sports, but we 335 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: you know, we talked about the wins and losses. The 336 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 2: one that really eggs me even more, eat of me 337 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 2: even more than losses, it's missed opportunities. Last week, I 338 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: was showing a ten point discrepancy between what the Colorado 339 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 2: State middle tennis fee line was and what it actually was. Like, 340 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: my line in that game is like a pick them 341 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 2: and I think, you know, like in real life it 342 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: was like, you know, Colorado State minus ten or whatever. 343 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: Well, the problem with that game is depending on Middle Tennessee, 344 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: they don't want to do that, you know, That's why 345 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: you didn't take right. 346 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 2: I should, you know, I should just held my nose 347 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 2: and jumped, but I didn't. Middle Tennessee ends up drop 348 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 2: kicking Colorado State. The takeaway from that is this Colorado 349 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: State team is really bad. It's quite bad. I mean 350 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee. The reason, like I was having a really 351 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 2: hard time with that was that they had looked so 352 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 2: awful in their first game, and I'd been trying to 353 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 2: sort of talk myself into some of the stuff with 354 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 2: them because they were bringing in an air raid themselves. 355 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 2: They seem to have personnel that it. You know, they 356 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 2: would suit it whatever. But they did not look good 357 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 2: in week one. But Colorado State is so bad that it. 358 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 2: You know, they were able to blow them out on 359 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 2: the road. As far as the over under, yeah, I 360 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 2: don't trust that the Colorado State offense at all. If 361 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 2: I was on the under, the one thing I'd be 362 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 2: concerned about is that Clay Millen kid throwing pick sixes 363 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 2: to Lazoo. We would have to make sure that they 364 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 2: ain't gonna throw any of those. But like you mentioned, 365 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: they can't run the ball. They do have one legitimate 366 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 2: source of offense, but it's only one. It's forcing the 367 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 2: ball to Tory Horton. That kid is really good head. 368 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 2: When he has the ball in his hands, he does damage. 369 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: So if I'm Washington State, you know I've watched the 370 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 2: tape of the first two games. Hits, we're doubling them, 371 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 2: We're bracketing that guy. He you know he's going We're 372 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 2: going to be watching him so close. 373 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: The went in the portal too, didn't he. 374 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: So yeah the other one yeah, exactly, Yeah, in a 375 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 2: weird one where you do it after the first couple 376 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 2: of games. My justin total on the game is fifty two, 377 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 2: so it is one point or whatever below the Vegas one. 378 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,360 Speaker 2: But we've talked about this in some of the past episodes. 379 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,160 Speaker 2: That's also baking in numbers from last year, stuff like that. 380 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 2: This is a reconstituted Colorado State team that was a 381 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 2: bad team that was trying to run the ball outside 382 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 2: of when they were forcing the ball to Trey McBride. 383 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 2: This is a bad team that throws the their throwers 384 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 2: and then they try to force it to Horton. But 385 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 2: they're they're still both aful not gonna be a good 386 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 2: offense this year. And we saw Washington State last week 387 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 2: go into Madison, Wisconsin and they beat Wisconsin sort of 388 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 2: at Wisconsin's old own game. Like you, we thought like 389 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 2: if someone told me before the game, hey, thor guess 390 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 2: what I'm from the future, Wazu was about to upset Wisconsin. 391 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: The first thing I would have done would have been 392 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 2: hugged them and been like, that's awesome, thank you for 393 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 2: telling me. The second thing I would have thought, well, 394 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 2: it's it's gonna Wazuo is gonna have to score a 395 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 2: bunch of points. It's gonna be a weird game where 396 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 2: like gets going and throws for a bunch of stuff 397 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 2: and then you know they're able to. 398 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 1: Open a slog. Yeah exactly, not this slog that it was, 399 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,439 Speaker 1: and how I tell. 400 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 2: You their game and beat them at it it was. 401 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: You know who feels the best about that is Nikiah 402 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 1: Watson transferred from Wisconsin to Washington State, I mean, gets 403 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: to play his old team and get a w. The 404 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: last five that we have here thor Memphis by fourteen 405 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: against Arkansas State, n C State versus Texas Tech over 406 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: fifty five and a half, Tennessee versus Akron under sixty seven, 407 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 1: FAU versus UCF u c F minus nine, and South 408 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: Florida plus the points twenty four and a half on 409 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: the road in the swamp against Florida. I think these 410 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: ones are probably harder overall to put your money on 411 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: than the ones that I had before. Is there one 412 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: that you that stands out above the rest in this group? 413 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 2: The Memphis Arkansas State game. You know, we talked about 414 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 2: this one on the discord to the side of it 415 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 2: at least where I have not bet this game yet, 416 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 2: but I do lean pretty heavily towards Memphis because of 417 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 2: the on field matchup. Sorry, Arkansas State. Going back to 418 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 2: the well the start of the Butch S. Jones era 419 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 2: last year, they have been not only awful in general 420 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 2: on defense, but particularly horrid at allowing explosive plays both 421 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 2: against the run and against the past. On the other 422 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 2: side that the Memphis team. I don't like a lot 423 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 2: about the Memphis team, and I don't like their coach. 424 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 2: He may he may survive in it next year, but 425 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 2: I don't think he's like I don't think he's gonna 426 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 2: have a super duper long head coaching career, the Silverfield fella. 427 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 2: But the one thing that they still do good is 428 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 2: generate explosive plays. You know, that goes back to their Norvel, 429 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 2: the other Norvel and college football. But when when Norvel 430 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 2: was there, you know, it's all the explosive running plays 431 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 2: and stuff like that, and then they would open up 432 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 2: explosive passing plays, you know, like Paxson Lynch you can 433 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 2: think about in your mind, or who's the kid who 434 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: was there for twenty Brady White or whatever, like, they 435 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 2: were able to hit the downfield shots and stuff like that. 436 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 2: This Memphis team can still get generate explosive plays on offense. 437 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,719 Speaker 2: So I think that they're gonna put up a lot 438 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,919 Speaker 2: of points on Arkansas that the referendum on. If that 439 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 2: game gets over, you gotta hope that Arkansas State can 440 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 2: do stuff against Memphis Secondary. Because Arkansas State can't run 441 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 2: the ball. They love to throw it. Though they have 442 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 2: the Florida State transfer in James Blackman. They have a 443 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 2: couple of decent receivers too, So it's just gonna come 444 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 2: down to how well that you know they can they 445 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 2: chip in twenty one to twenty four points to this thing, 446 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 2: then we're probably getting there. If they get held below that, 447 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 2: it's gonna be a problem. But I don't love Memphis defense, 448 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 2: so I probably probably would lean over on that the 449 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: same way that I lean Memphis minus the points. 450 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the top five games of 451 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: the week, the games that every one wants to watch here, 452 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: and we're gonna start out against number twenty four Texas 453 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 1: A and M minus five hosting Miami. The total in 454 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: this game is forty fourth or you know, this is 455 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 1: this is a weird game. Miami looked flat, especially in 456 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 1: the first half last week. Maybe you know, big party 457 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: school early game opponent you don't take seriously. I'm gonna 458 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: I'm gonna add up a couple pieces here and say 459 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: maybe they were tired from the night before. Will be 460 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: nice and say it that way. A M loses it 461 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: home to ap State, pays them a million and a 462 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: half to come into their theirs. They even beat them. 463 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: Best part of the day for me last Saturday, for sure, 464 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: outside of winning some cash. But what do you think 465 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: of this game here at Thorty, You have a lean? 466 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was either is either my that or what 467 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 2: I think that was with Miami was just the first 468 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 2: two games they haven't played, you know, it was the 469 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 2: FCSC and then Southern Miss last week, and Southern Miss 470 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 2: was without their starting quarterback, so Miami knew that all 471 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 2: they had to do is just like the defense could 472 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 2: just basically roll out there. Southern Miss wasn't gonna score 473 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 2: on him, and then Miami could just you know, do 474 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 2: whatever on offense. And Van Dyke made a couple of 475 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 2: bad decisions with the bob, but you know they still 476 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 2: I mean, we're being kind of nippicky because they still won. 477 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 2: What was it like thirty one to seven or thirty 478 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 2: eight to seven or something like that. A and M's 479 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 2: performance obviously was. 480 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: Thirty to seven because thy spread was twenty four and 481 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: a half. That's that's why. 482 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, yeah, yeah, but yeah, as far as coming 483 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 2: into this game, you have the thing with A and 484 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 2: M where you know, of course, last week you lose 485 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 2: to Appalachian State. A and M did have a higher 486 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: win expectancy. They had like a sixty five percent postgame 487 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 2: win expectancy. Doesn't really matter with the results on the field, 488 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 2: but worth noting at least, But beyond the result of 489 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 2: that game, I'm concerned about several things on the A 490 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 2: and M roster. Super concerned about their quarterback play. They 491 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 2: do not appear to have like a legitimate, even you know, 492 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 2: solid P five starting quarterback. Uh, Haines King is is 493 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 2: not it? 494 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: Uh? 495 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 2: Max Johnson? Uh? His former staff did that, didn't really 496 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 2: seem to care that he was leaving. Didn't seem like 497 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 2: Brian Kelly comes in. Doesn't seem like Brian Kelly was 498 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 2: trying to order to keep Max Johnson there. He's one 499 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 2: of the backup options, the only other kid they got. 500 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 2: He is a five star kid, but he's a true 501 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 2: freshman just out of high school. And Connor Weegman, so 502 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 2: they can pull the plug on Haynes King, and they're 503 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 2: thinking about it because Jimbo Fisher refuses to acknowledge so 504 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 2: far who's going to be starting on Saturday. So you 505 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: might see a new guy. But you know, do you 506 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 2: go to Johnson, do you go to the you know, 507 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 2: the the green kid, you know who knows? 508 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, go somewhere else. 509 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 2: I know that, So I wouldn't start Haynes King again. 510 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 2: But that that's just me. The running game. They they 511 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 2: have missed Isaiah Spiller more than I thought they would 512 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 2: because I thought between Odd Chane, you know, Odd Chaan 513 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 2: has been better, was better throughout his career per touch 514 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 2: than Spiller, but of course it was on h less 515 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 2: usage right, and he would come in and then he 516 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 2: would provide explosive plays. You can them all over the place, 517 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 2: and you get them on the perimeter. He'd outrun people. 518 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 2: One of the fastest players in college football. And I 519 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 2: was thinking, without Spiller, yeah, au Chain's gonna have to 520 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 2: assume more of the carries. But then you have all 521 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,360 Speaker 2: these five star running backs coming in, you can basically 522 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 2: piece together as productive a running back rum or maybe 523 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 2: even more. But right now, so far it has not 524 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,679 Speaker 2: been that way. Auchane did have the long kick return 525 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 2: touchdown in the last game, but like as far as 526 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 2: like having to tote the rock and like you know, 527 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,640 Speaker 2: kill the clock and and and you know, in instances 528 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 2: where you need to let the defense rest on the sidelines, 529 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 2: they have struggled with that so far. A and m 530 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,120 Speaker 2: has so that their running game is definitely down, their 531 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 2: passing game is down, and I think their secondary stinks. 532 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 2: They have not been good against two Well I'm not 533 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 2: gonna call Apple Latch and State bad, but your first 534 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 2: two games, you play an FCS team in Apple Aatche 535 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: and State and you've gotten ripped. 536 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 1: You haven't played a P five team yet, Yeah, exactly. 537 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, And so now you know that that secondary which 538 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 2: hasn't looked so good so far, and it has been allowing 539 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 2: a lot of separation to receivers that were you know, 540 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: two star recruits or three low three star recruits or 541 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 2: maybe even no star recruits. Now they're going up against Miami, 542 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 2: who has a lot of athleticism on the perimeter. They 543 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: have an NFL prospect a quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke 544 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 2: who has a big league arm, should be able to 545 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 2: stretch you know, A and M deep down the field. 546 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 2: And stuff like that, and then Miami can run the ball. Now, 547 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 2: Henry Parrish was a great find in the transfer portal. 548 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 2: They sort of pilfered him from Lane Kiffin when Lane 549 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 2: Kiffin was looking out. So we're bringing in a bunch 550 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 2: of running backs. Parishes look great. And you know, the 551 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 2: first few games, I think Miami matches up decently well 552 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 2: against A and M's defense, that that would be the 553 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 2: thing that would normally concern you. And then on the 554 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,919 Speaker 2: other side, if if Miami is you know, is up, 555 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 2: they do get up and and A and M is 556 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,640 Speaker 2: forced into a position of having to throw. Miami's pass 557 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: rush is really good. And you know, you know, I 558 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 2: mentioned that Haines King and all those like we of 559 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 2: course don't believe in them, but especially when those Miami 560 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 2: edge rushers are just allowed to tee off, that is 561 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 2: a bad scenario for A and M. If you're going 562 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 2: to lay this many points on A and M, you 563 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 2: have to be pretty confident that they're going to jump 564 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 2: out to like a double digital lead, and then they 565 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 2: can just do the you know, kill the clock thing. Yeah, 566 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,360 Speaker 2: other game scripts are not good for laying this many points. 567 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 2: My line in this game is only A and M 568 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 2: minus one point three. I definitely like Miami. 569 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm with you on Miami. Don't know if 570 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: I'll take him after they disappointed me last week, but 571 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 1: we'll see. The only other rank on rank that was 572 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: thirteen verse twenty four Miami versus Texas A and M. 573 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 1: The only other rank on rank matchup we have here 574 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: is a number twenty five Oregon, three and a half 575 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 1: point home favorite, second number twelve BYU. The total is 576 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: fifty seven and a half here. What do you think 577 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: of this game? Corp? 578 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,199 Speaker 2: This is man. This is a really hard one to 579 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 2: get your finger on. For a couple of different reasons. 580 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 2: My line, so one of the reasons I was interested 581 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 2: in it was because my line was showing real value 582 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 2: on BYU. I think it was. So I have BYU 583 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 2: minus one point five live it's, you know, Oregon minus 584 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 2: three point five. So you're showing like five points of 585 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 2: line value theoretically on BYU across the threshold there, and 586 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 2: so I am still thinking about betting b YU. I'm 587 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 2: not gonna be betting on Oregon. Oregon who looked terrible 588 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 2: in the opener against Georgia, and then last week they 589 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 2: played an FCS team. So it's like, we still don't 590 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 2: really know what we have because first game, you play 591 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 2: one of the two best teams in the nation. Next 592 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 2: game you don't. You don't play anybody. We'll see what 593 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 2: what we get out of them. Remember, they have the 594 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 2: new coaching staff. Now they're quarterback by bo Knicks, you know, 595 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 2: and stuff like that. So we'll have to see how 596 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 2: that plays out. But again, I would prefer BYU except 597 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 2: for one thing, and this is what has stopped me 598 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 2: from betting on this one so far and the reason 599 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 2: why I'm waiting to monitor the status. Both of their 600 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 2: receivers missed last week's game against Bailey. They're their top 601 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 2: you know, two guys Pakua who not only you give 602 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 2: them a bunch of usage in the passing game, they 603 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: also give them a bunch of the ender rounds and 604 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 2: jet sweep stuff like that. He's a big part of 605 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 2: every offensive game play that. He's a part of that. 606 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 2: And then Gunner Romney. So they are severely compromised at 607 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 2: the receiver position. BYU has not updated their status yet. 608 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: They haven't said one way or the other if they're 609 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 2: going to play in this game, if they're not going 610 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 2: to play in. 611 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: This knowing they don't have to, so they're not gonna 612 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 1: say it. 613 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 2: So exactly. BYU was able to sneak by Baylor without them. 614 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,239 Speaker 2: They needed over time to do it, but they were 615 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,959 Speaker 2: able to alast Baylor. Can they do it again on 616 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 2: the road in Eugene If they don't have either of 617 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 2: those guys, that might be a bridge too far coming 618 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 2: off the win that they just had. But if you 619 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 2: get both those guys back and now all of a sudden, 620 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 2: Jaron Hall has weapons again, I actually like BYU's talent 621 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: more than I like oregon salent. Like, I think this 622 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 2: BYU team is really solid, but you know Oregon's you 623 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 2: know they should be a solid team. So we'll just 624 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 2: have to see about the status of those two guys. 625 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 2: But if I was thinking about betting this game, anyone 626 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: out there, you got to check on the status of 627 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 2: those two BYU receivers first. 628 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: I still think Oregon could be really good. It's just 629 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: Georgia is leaps and bounds better than anybody else by 630 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 1: a wide peruchon in my opinion. The other three games 631 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: that those are the only ranked on rank games. The 632 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 1: other three games that we have that I put on 633 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: the list in terms of top five. I got Washington 634 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: is a three and a half point home favorite against 635 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 1: number eleven Michigan State. The over unders fifty six and 636 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 1: a half on that one. Auburn against Penn State. Penn 637 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: State is a road favorite at number twenty two and 638 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: minus three. Forty six and a half is the over 639 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: in that game, So a low total there, and then 640 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: I get I couldn't really figure out the fifth one. 641 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: I put number one Georgia on the road against South 642 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: Carolina as twenty four point road favorites. Fifty two is 643 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: line in that one. I still like Georgia in that game. 644 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 1: I think out of this group, that's the one I'm 645 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 1: most confident in out of all three of these. Do 646 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: you have you have a good lean on any of 647 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 1: those three games? Store? 648 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 2: Well, the Michigan State Washington one is really interesting because 649 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 2: my line has basically flipped the exact opposite way like 650 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 2: I got Michif. 651 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 1: You've got the ranked team favorite, yeah yeah. 652 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: And not only that, so you know I'm showing value 653 00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 2: on the Spartans, But not only that, it would seem 654 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 2: like the Spartan actually match up pretty decently here. Their 655 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 2: offensive line is really good of course they lost Kenneth Walker, right, 656 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 2: but the offensive line is really good again. In fact, 657 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 2: I'm looking at the PFF metrics right now, right you know, 658 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 2: we're early in the season, so you know, take it 659 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 2: with a grain of salt, but Michigan State is right 660 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 2: now number one in the country in PFF run blocking 661 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 2: grade and they are way up there in the past 662 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 2: blocking to their number thirteen. So they have been able 663 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 2: to do it in the trenches. You have experience coming 664 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 2: back at the quarterback position. They haven't passed the ball 665 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 2: as well early on, but you do sort of trust Thorn. 666 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 2: We've seen them do it. And then Washington, they have 667 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 2: their run defense hasn't looked the you know, best so 668 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 2: far at least, and you know, they haven't been super 669 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 2: duper tested by anyone or whatever. But in comparison to 670 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 2: the opponents that they were playing, I understand the optimism 671 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 2: on Washington for sure. You know, going from Jimmy Lake, 672 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 2: who you know he wouldn't know offensive football if it 673 00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 2: hit him in the face, to now going to Caleb 674 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: de Bor, who wherever he has gone, you know, even 675 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 2: Indiana or like whatever, like he always has the explosive 676 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 2: offensive or Fresno or like whatever. So I definitely get that. 677 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 2: And now you've got Michael Pennix. Whereas before you didn't 678 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 2: trust your quarterback stuff like that, now they can move 679 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:19,200 Speaker 2: the ball. But this line does seem suspiciously juiced in 680 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 2: the favor of Washington, so suspiciously that I have not 681 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 2: touched it yet, even though I do think that Michigan 682 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 2: State matches up well, you know, if you just like 683 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 2: look at like that, and then also I'm showing value 684 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 2: on him. It's one that I'm gonna keep looking candy 685 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 2: capping through the end of the week before I make 686 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 2: a decision one way or the other. But a weird 687 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 2: line for me. Weird line. 688 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to your leans thor We've got 689 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: Indiana minus six against wk You you like the other 690 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: side of that game. Iowa State is laying seventeen and 691 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: a half against Ohio. That might not be enough. You 692 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 1: like Notre Dame and lay the ten against cal wiscon 693 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: Hunson maybe as a huge line against New Mexico State, 694 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 1: but they've gotten nothing. They're minus thirty seven. Tennessee is 695 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 1: minus forty seven versus Akron. Maybe that's too much, and 696 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: pit minus ten at Western Michigan may not be enough 697 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 1: to do you have out of that group of games 698 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 1: that you have good leans on thor do you have 699 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 1: a couple favorites out of there? 700 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 2: For sure? Yeah, Western Kentucky they might. They might be 701 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 2: on the top of the list. My adjustment lines all 702 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 2: the way the other way, you know where I have 703 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 2: Western Kentucky favored, even though you know the line live 704 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 2: is Indiana's. You said six. Last thing I had seen 705 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 2: was six and a half. But whatever it is, I 706 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 2: think in a vacuum, Western Kentucky is probably the better team. 707 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 2: And I also think that they match up really well 708 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,800 Speaker 2: here because Indiana, the thing that they've stunk at early 709 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 2: in the season, it's defending the pass They allowed Tommy 710 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 2: DeVito to rip them up. That you know, that was 711 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 2: like the fourth highest passing output total that Tommy DeVito 712 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 2: had over his entire career, certainly the most that he 713 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 2: has had this year. Last week, Indiana plays Idaho at home. 714 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 2: Idaho a team that is now four and nine in 715 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,840 Speaker 2: the FCS, not FBS FCS since the started the last season. 716 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 2: Idaho is up on them ten, ten and nothing at halftime. 717 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 2: Indiana had to come back to win the game, but 718 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 2: Idaho's quarterback was doing whatever he wanted. Do we average 719 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 2: nine yards per pass through for three touchdowns? You have 720 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,080 Speaker 2: to have serious questions about Indiana's ability to defend the 721 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 2: pass and their secondary in general. That's what Western Kentucky 722 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 2: wants to do is throw the ball and they want 723 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 2: they want to spread you as you know, as wide 724 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 2: as they possibly can and then just attack spaces. Right 725 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 2: Western Kentucky that the quarterbacks down for sure. You know, 726 00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 2: Bailey Zappi gone, of course. Now they have this Austin 727 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 2: Reid kid. First two games up from the D two 728 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 2: level mix beg you know, I mean, he hasn't been 729 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 2: an embarrassment by mixed bag. Western Kentucky did win both 730 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 2: those games. They were both against poor opponents. So this 731 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,399 Speaker 2: is gonna be really interesting seeing him play a big 732 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 2: ten defense and and how he does. But he's you know, 733 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 2: he averaged like two hundred seventy five yards a game 734 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 2: even though they were barely throwing you know what. You 735 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 2: know once it got to like twenty minutes left because 736 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:06,680 Speaker 2: both of them, like I said, were blowing so that 737 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 2: they were running more at the end. But they would 738 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 2: seem to match up well there and especially because Western 739 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 2: Kentucky is a really, really good receiving core, not only 740 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,759 Speaker 2: at the top they're loaded there, but all the way 741 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:17,880 Speaker 2: down they have one of the G five's best receiving cours. 742 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 2: I find it really hard to believe that Indiana is 743 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 2: going to be able to go body to you know, 744 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 2: for body with them across the formation and their secondary 745 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 2: against Western Kentucky's receivers. And then again I'm showing line 746 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 2: value on Western Kentucky as well. The other thing sort 747 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 2: of sneaky. Western Kentucky's coming off of a bye yeah, 748 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 2: So to me, there's a lot of things that are 749 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 2: pointing at Western Kentucky. I would definitely lean towards the 750 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,400 Speaker 2: hill Toppers any other games out of that group that 751 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 2: you like the yeah, just quick hitting them. You know, 752 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,719 Speaker 2: I am showing line value theoretically on Iowa State. My 753 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,920 Speaker 2: line was twenty four point seven that the liveline is 754 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 2: seventeen and a half. But I'm not going to touch 755 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,240 Speaker 2: that one. Iowa State just had that, you know, basically 756 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 2: a barroom brawl of a game him. You know, it's 757 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,440 Speaker 2: just like they were in them and Isla were just 758 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 2: a phone booth, just you know, rock them sock them 759 00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 2: with each other, and I always state ends up pulling 760 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,800 Speaker 2: it out, you know, all their young players and everything 761 00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 2: in Kinnick Stadium. So a huge win for them. And 762 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 2: now you have to turn around and play this Ohio team. 763 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 2: You know, like, are they really going to take Ohio seriously? 764 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:19,839 Speaker 2: Are they Are they really going to have the same 765 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,799 Speaker 2: effort that they did because of the the you know, 766 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,839 Speaker 2: the the deflation theory, you know, coming off that last one, 767 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 2: you have to downgrade. Iowa stayed a bit, so I 768 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 2: can't touch that one. I can also tell you I 769 00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 2: know sharp money's on Ohio in that game, so but 770 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,879 Speaker 2: I don't want any part of Ohio only getting seventeen half. 771 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 2: So so I ain't touching that one. I do like 772 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,239 Speaker 2: Notre Dame minus ten against Cal. I don't care that 773 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 2: Buckner's not playing. Buckner hadn't even gut this year. I'm 774 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,319 Speaker 2: not convinced it's a down This is going like the 775 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,279 Speaker 2: Liberty thing with Brewer Dessalter. I'm not convinced that that 776 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 2: Notre Dame is downgraded a quarterback from from Buckner to Pine. 777 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 2: I realized that Buckner was was the much higher valleyhood 778 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 2: kind of recruit, but Pine is more like, uh he 779 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 2: he he'll evoke Ian Book a little bit more. I think, 780 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 2: you know, he's sort of a Pine sized guy, but 781 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 2: he makes smart decisions. I think he has a three 782 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,800 Speaker 2: to one career td I and T ratio, whereas Buckner 783 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 2: is throwing a decent amount more interception the touchdowns at 784 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 2: this point, I think you don't get that quite the 785 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 2: arm strength or the athleticism of course with with Pine, 786 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 2: but I think he can do a better job of 787 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,239 Speaker 2: just keeping the offense within the rails and hopefully then 788 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 2: the coaching staff can have a more definitive kind of 789 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,400 Speaker 2: game plan heading into those games, because it seemed like 790 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,799 Speaker 2: they wanted Buckner to do way too much too even 791 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 2: though he hadn't proven anything yet, like he was getting 792 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 2: a lot of the rushing usage as well, and YadA YadA. 793 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 2: I didn't love that. So I think, you know, there's 794 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 2: a theory here where Notre Dame is you don't want 795 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,160 Speaker 2: to say better off, but where they're not going to 796 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,520 Speaker 2: drop off like people think they're going to going to. 797 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 2: And I don't like Cal either. Cal's beating an FCS team. 798 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,400 Speaker 2: They only beat UNLV last week by six. Some kind 799 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,800 Speaker 2: of confused that they're getting that much credit. 800 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 1: They bow up and play well, but when they do, 801 00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 1: it's usually against another Pac twelve opponent. It's not you know, 802 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,920 Speaker 1: it ain't gonna be Notre Dame. I think I'm with 803 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,000 Speaker 1: you in this game too. But the or we did it, 804 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 1: I think we're ready for week three. Now. Remember you 805 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,239 Speaker 1: can follow him on the Twitter at thor ku and 806 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,320 Speaker 1: please throor once again remind everyone about the schedule. Lay everyone, 807 00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 1: Lay it out for everybody so I know where to 808 00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: find all your great work on betting pros. 809 00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, check out my show on Sundays with Thomas where 810 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,839 Speaker 2: we go over the lines like right when they come out, 811 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,280 Speaker 2: you know, like the Vegas line against against my numbers 812 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,400 Speaker 2: for the coming week. Gives you buying opportunities there, you know, 813 00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 2: games you can get in on early and then get 814 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 2: you know a big line discount, you know in comparison 815 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,480 Speaker 2: to what it will be on on this Saturday. Of course, 816 00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 2: me and my friend Bogman over here this show and 817 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 2: then also we do a discord immediately before it, which 818 00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,160 Speaker 2: is at five pm Eastern and that's. 819 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 1: Three for anybody. Yeah, Wednesday, just if you can come 820 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 1: and sign up and be a part of the Betting 821 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,600 Speaker 1: Pros Discord and for anybody, you don't have to be 822 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 1: a premium subscriber and you can jump in there and 823 00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: talk to us. We would love to answer your questions, 824 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 1: so please come to us. It's a lot of fun. 825 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 2: We had some great questions today, so yeah, it was 826 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,439 Speaker 2: good stuff, and yeah, people should definitely check that out 827 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 2: because we're there for an hour. We're live, and we 828 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,200 Speaker 2: will answer literally every question that people have, Like if 829 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 2: you put your hand up, we will call you up 830 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,560 Speaker 2: and we will answer your question. So definitely checked out. 831 00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,680 Speaker 2: I have the Kickoff Show with Mike Ferrell on Saturday 832 00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,200 Speaker 2: mornings at ten pm East. I try to put the 833 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,439 Speaker 2: times into Eastern and or ten ten am Eastern, where 834 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,960 Speaker 2: we go for ninety straight minutes, breaking down as many 835 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,239 Speaker 2: games as we possibly can, sides, totals, props, that the 836 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,719 Speaker 2: whole deal, and then coming out later this week. In fact, 837 00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,520 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be submitting it here in the next hour 838 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 2: is my top ten favorite bets for the weekend, So 839 00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:40,800 Speaker 2: check that out on Betting Pros. 840 00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 1: Awesome and you can find me, of course here with 841 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 1: Thor every single Wednesday. Like we talked about on the discord, 842 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,000 Speaker 1: I believe The show comes out on Thursdays as well, 843 00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,839 Speaker 1: so check us out here. And I'm doing IDP with 844 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,440 Speaker 1: Joe pi Zapia right now. That comes out on Thursday 845 00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,400 Speaker 1: as well for Fantasy Pros and I will be on 846 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,600 Speaker 1: there Wednesday night doing stages after dark on the Fantasy 847 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,400 Speaker 1: Pros discord and see if you went again with Nick 848 00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,759 Speaker 1: and Savier talks of college football. Of course, all my 849 00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,160 Speaker 1: fantasy stuff over at in this league as well with 850 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: the Welsh so at Bogman Sports. You can find all 851 00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,319 Speaker 1: the great stuff I'm doing over there. It's a lot 852 00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,560 Speaker 1: of fun, uh and enjoy and we will see you guys. 853 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,759 Speaker 1: Good luck in week three. We will see you next week. 854 00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:28,840 Speaker 1: Take it ease here, everybody,