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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

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Speaker 1: straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 1: July twenty two. The month of July just flying by.

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Speaker 1: We had big, big, big, huge NFL news on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: It happened a break while I was on the Herd

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Speaker 1: with cow Herd, so that's always a plus. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to Kyler Murray shortly. Our guest today is off the Hook.

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Speaker 1: If you like gambling, if you like fantasy, if you

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Speaker 1: like football, which is everybody who listens to this podcast.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Shots is the guy for you, the football outsiders.

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Speaker 1: He comes on. We gloss over some of the teams,

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Speaker 1: the big picture issues. It's lovely. You are gonna love it.

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Speaker 1: Before that, a couple of quick notes. This is what

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Speaker 1: I called nerdy. I told I met a couple of

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Speaker 1: dads for a quick drink on Thursday night. Um, and

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Speaker 1: I said, guys, I'm sorry, I'm a little late. I

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Speaker 1: had to go and gout my opponent for today's tennis match.

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Speaker 1: In this tennis tournamentument again, twenty nine dudes in my

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Speaker 1: three point five is the level of you know tennis,

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Speaker 1: and three of them got buys the defending champ me

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Speaker 1: I made the semifinals last year twice actually, and some

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Speaker 1: other guy who I don't know. So I went to

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Speaker 1: scout who I would be playing. So, you know, I

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Speaker 1: roll up shades glasses and I'm looking at some of

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Speaker 1: the matches. I'm all right, where's this court, you know,

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Speaker 1: I go see the guys. I'm like, let's camp be

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Speaker 1: come on. I mean, it is granny tennis from you know.

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Speaker 1: Two guys were probably like thirty thirty five years old,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, there was some like girl watching.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was like one of the girlfriends or

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Speaker 1: moms or whatever or other not girlfriends or wife. And

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Speaker 1: I was like, so, do you know which guy's which?

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Speaker 1: And she was like, no, I have no idea. I'm

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Speaker 1: here for that other match. And I was like, okay,

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Speaker 1: so I'm watching, and you know, one guy's crushed the

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Speaker 1: other neither has a good serve. The guy who's winning

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Speaker 1: did not hit one backhand in all the points I saw,

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Speaker 1: because he was running around his backhand, and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: oh my gosh. I mean it was just like stand

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Speaker 1: in the middle and hit the ball to each other

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Speaker 1: and who made a mistake first. I was like, oh

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Speaker 1: my goodness, and I text my daughter, Hey, brit if

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Speaker 1: I lose to either of these guys, I might have

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Speaker 1: to retire from tennis. Now. Listen. I regret sending that,

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Speaker 1: because you know that's the kiss of death, thinking you're

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Speaker 1: the man. So I go tell my buddies this. They

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Speaker 1: start laughing and, um, listen, I'm competitive. I thought it

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Speaker 1: was losory and nerdy. They were like, you're competitive, you

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Speaker 1: want to win. I was like, it's a good point.

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Speaker 1: You just made a very valid point, Thank you very much. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And it's funny because it's not just for me. It's

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Speaker 1: for like my my kids as well. My daughter and

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Speaker 1: son playing this summer basketball league. It's mostly for fun locally,

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Speaker 1: and my daughter, for the second year in a row,

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Speaker 1: is on a team with some of her buddies, um

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Speaker 1: from her grade. And of course the dad's I'm friendly

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Speaker 1: with the coaches, you know. And they listened to the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Their kids, well, one of them, big big Bay area fan.

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Speaker 1: He goes to like Warriors games. He went to the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. His name is I'll he. After the game,

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Speaker 1: I was like, Kyle Man, you played great. You're you're

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Speaker 1: leading the league in deflections and floor burns and he's like,

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Speaker 1: you gotta mention me on straight fire, and I was

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Speaker 1: just like, this is awesome, you know, And I'm scouting,

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Speaker 1: not not full on scouting, but I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: opponents are playing just like the other dads and saying

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Speaker 1: for my son. You know, there was a couple of

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Speaker 1: big game Thursday, my son out to buy and I

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Speaker 1: was like, should we stick around and check out that

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Speaker 1: our opponent on Sunday? Who with my son knows well

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be a great game. But um, like

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Speaker 1: I just I guess I'm just competitive like that. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, it's something that's wired in me, whether it's

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Speaker 1: sports debates, chess, tennis, honestly, FIFA, whatever game you want

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Speaker 1: to play, Like, I just I'm kind of competitive at it.

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Speaker 1: Not like off putting lee competitive, but just like I

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Speaker 1: want to win. And you know this dad basketball league

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Speaker 1: were in obviously we're now the uh number one in

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Speaker 1: the league, and you know, all the guys are kind

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Speaker 1: of excited. And I have this really nerdy idea. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to reveal it on this pod, um, but

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Speaker 1: I have this idea of to do for the team

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Speaker 1: that I think would be cool it's extremely nerdied. You

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Speaker 1: guys will mock me when you see it on my

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Speaker 1: Instagram if we if we end up doing it, Um,

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Speaker 1: I think I think it's gonna be awesome. And and

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Speaker 1: I listen, I've said it a lot. You get one life, guys.

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Speaker 1: You gotta enjoy, you gotta live it up. You gotta

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Speaker 1: have the most fun you can. And UM, I'm just

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Speaker 1: trying to do that. You know That's what I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to do. And let's without further ado, let me remind

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Speaker 1: you guys that will be on the Herd again today

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Speaker 1: with Calherd chopping it up. Should be fun. Maybe NBA

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Speaker 1: news will break, who knows, Donovan Mitchell, we'll see. Um.

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Speaker 1: As for Kyler Murray, I'll be brief because you guys

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Speaker 1: know I've been pro Kyler Murray throughout. I love the signing.

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Speaker 1: I personally think he got more money than I thought

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Speaker 1: he would. I'm frankly, I'm a little stunned that he's

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Speaker 1: going to be averaging forty one mill per This is

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Speaker 1: like such a massive, colossal win for Kyler Murray. I

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Speaker 1: don't think people totally get Deshaun Watson, who's accomplished poin

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Speaker 1: than Kyler five years, two hundred and thirty forty six

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Speaker 1: million dollars per year. So what did Kyla Maurie get

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Speaker 1: five years, two d and thirty point five mill forty

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Speaker 1: six one million per year? His agent fought for it

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Speaker 1: and got it. I want what Deshaun Watson got. Now,

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Speaker 1: he did not get the fully guaranteed Obviously that's non negotiable,

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Speaker 1: and it sounds like Watson will be the outlier in

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Speaker 1: that case. But Kyler Maurie got forty six making forty

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Speaker 1: six million dollars. He has zero playoff wins. I know

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Speaker 1: that the contracts are forward looking, and I saw a

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Speaker 1: really funny stat that the Oakland Athletics payroll is like

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Speaker 1: forty two mill and Kyla muri is gonna be making

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Speaker 1: forty six mill himself next year. Um, but it leads

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Speaker 1: to the question like what should Lamar Jackson get? And undeniably,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson has accomplished more than Kyler Murray. He has

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Speaker 1: an m v P, he has more playoff wins. I

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Speaker 1: think he's an overall better quarterback than Kyla Maurie. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's some incendiary take. I just think Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson's overall better quarterback. And I like Kyler Murie a lot,

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Speaker 1: But I think the question becomes like, does that mean

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Speaker 1: Lamar gets forty six point two bill or does he

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Speaker 1: angle more for the fully guaranteed given he's a running

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Speaker 1: quarterback potentially injury prone. To all these people out there

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Speaker 1: who are like, that's crazy, buddy, guys, Bradley Beale is

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Speaker 1: going to be making fifty million dollars in his contract

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Speaker 1: in a few years, guaranteed. Fifty mil. Bradley Beale, who's

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Speaker 1: accomplished less then Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, and he

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Speaker 1: plays on a franchise that's going nowhere, they have no

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Speaker 1: hope to win anything, and he's still making fifty mil.

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Speaker 1: Sports contracts are crazy. Why Because people love sports, People

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Speaker 1: love watching sports, people love talking about sports. Podcasts. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Digital sports are massive business. The TV rights are huge.

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Speaker 1: They're not going any They're not going down anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: Look at the social media feeds. I always joke to

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Speaker 1: guys about this, like, yeah, yeah, I know, I know

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Speaker 1: his quarterbacks are huge, but um, you know, like twenty

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Speaker 1: guys in the NBA have larger Instagram followings than Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers or whoever. And maybe it's more than twenty for

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. But it's it's insane how popular these athletes

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Speaker 1: are in the NBA and NFL. It's really ridiculous. Now again,

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Speaker 1: baseball is another story you go look at, and again

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Speaker 1: that's social media is just one metric and it doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean a whole hell of a lot, but it can

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Speaker 1: translate to jersey sales, all star appearances and so forth.

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Speaker 1: But the popularity of these athletes and the contracts are

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Speaker 1: only going up. So this idea that lamar, oh, he's

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Speaker 1: not worth is anybody really, I mean seriously, Like you

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Speaker 1: could say, Okay, Tom Brady is worth it, he's done

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Speaker 1: a lot. Well, is he going to do a lot

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Speaker 1: in the next three years? Is Aaron Rodgers going to

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Speaker 1: do a lot in the next three years? Was Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins when he was the highest paid quarterback in the league?

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Speaker 1: Was he worth it? No, you're betting on these guys

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Speaker 1: and to keep them away from other teams and to

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Speaker 1: make them happy and to show your franchise and fan

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Speaker 1: base that we are committed to trying our best to win,

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Speaker 1: you gotta pay these guys. So I got no problem

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Speaker 1: with any of these guys making big, big bank none

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Speaker 1: and oh, by the way, the year before Kyler Murie

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Speaker 1: got there, did Josh Rosen her three and thirteen with

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Speaker 1: Steve Wilkes. He was one and done before that, Bruce Arians,

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Speaker 1: they were seven eight and one. They did lose in

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Speaker 1: the NFC Championship. They got obliterated by Cam Newton the

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Speaker 1: year before that. But again, when you don't have a quarterback,

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Speaker 1: you have no chance. And trust me, as a fan

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Speaker 1: of the New York Jets, I am well aware of

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Speaker 1: that fact. All right, without further ado, let's get to

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Speaker 1: our guest, Aaron Shots of the Football Outsiders. Jason likes

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Speaker 1: to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 1: I know what sports fans want, But for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

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Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. A guy. You know.

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Speaker 1: There's a few guys better than him at producing information,

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Speaker 1: gambling nuggets, fantasy nuggets. Aaron Shots, Football Outsiders, how are you, man?

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Speaker 1: I'm good. I've been working, working, working, and now I'm

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Speaker 1: ready for actual football. I'm ready for training camps. I'm

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Speaker 1: ready for rumors to stop and actual play to begin. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we're recording this right after the Kyler Murray news. Uh, Aaron,

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Speaker 1: do you have a Do you have a strong take

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Speaker 1: either way on Kyler Murray signing a massive deal with

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals. Um, you know, they really didn't have many

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Speaker 1: other options. He's getting about the same per year as

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, but he didn't get it all guaranteed. We'll

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Speaker 1: get that out of the way first anything. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: they talk about sort of there's three different kind of quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: Quarterbacks you win because of, quarterbacks you win with, and

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks that you win despite. And I think Kyler Murray

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Speaker 1: is definitely in the quarterbacks you win because of tier. Now,

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Speaker 1: he may be the lowest guy in that tier, but

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Speaker 1: he's in that tier. And when a guy comes up

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Speaker 1: for contract in that tier, you pay him because he

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Speaker 1: can win you games on his own. Okay, I would

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Speaker 1: harde to agree with that. Uh. The Internet Twitter, h

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Speaker 1: what is it? NFL Twitter if that's a thing, really

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Speaker 1: does not seem to like Kyler Murray. I saw Greg

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Speaker 1: Rosenthal taking a shot Kevin Clark. I'm surprised the media

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Speaker 1: doesn't like Murray, but I'm with you, Aaron. I I

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Speaker 1: think you had to pay him the money. I do

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Speaker 1: want to point out at the jump, Aaron said he

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Speaker 1: was working, working, working. I think that's an underplay. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I just got the Football Outsiders Almanac, which is mandatory

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Speaker 1: reading ahead of the NFL season. It's five and thirty

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Speaker 1: nine pages five and thirty nine. It is so dense

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Speaker 1: eron I. I didn't want to start with my Jets

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Speaker 1: because I know people kind of fast forward through the

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Speaker 1: Jets because they hate him. I want to start with

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. But I have to give people. This is

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Speaker 1: the kind of nugget that Aaron produces. The Jets had

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Speaker 1: the lowest safety to cornerback cover ratio in the NFL

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Speaker 1: last season, meaning the coverage was always almost always placed

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Speaker 1: in the hands of the jets extremely young quarterback group. Now,

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Speaker 1: Aaron first question off that is where do you get

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Speaker 1: that lowest safety to cornerback cover a ratio? And can

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Speaker 1: the regular Joe who's listening to this and knows that

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Speaker 1: there's actionable gambling items, can they just find that on

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Speaker 1: the internet or do they have to just go to

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Speaker 1: you guys for it. Well, we get data from our

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Speaker 1: partners at Sports Info Solutions. They do all of the

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Speaker 1: charting data for us, and so one of the things

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Speaker 1: I get at the end of the season is who

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Speaker 1: was in coverage, the main coverage guy on every play.

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Speaker 1: So once I have that data, I add up all

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Speaker 1: the coverage plays that were cornerbacks and all the coverage

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Speaker 1: plays that were safeties. So you can get this data,

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Speaker 1: for example, by going to the Sports Info Solutions data Hub,

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Speaker 1: which I believe is s I S data hub dot com.

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Speaker 1: But you would have to add up every individual cornerback

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Speaker 1: and safety like individually and then compare them by team

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Speaker 1: and all that. So I have a bunch of you know,

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Speaker 1: stuff that just does it for me automatically. Yes, yes,

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Speaker 1: that that That's a great nugget because then the Jets

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Speaker 1: go out in the off season and we know they

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Speaker 1: drafted a superstar at cornerback, Sauce Gardener, but they also

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Speaker 1: picked up the kid from Seattle to be their number

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Speaker 1: two corner And you know, if you think back to

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Speaker 1: Sala in San fran his defenses, he loved Richard Sherman

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Speaker 1: um the press coverage and you let everybody else kind

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Speaker 1: of go crazy. I mean again, I didn't want to

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Speaker 1: start with the Jets and being excited. But Aaron, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little excited, just a little bit. Here's the

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Speaker 1: thing about the Jets, um you can tell the story

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Speaker 1: of how the Jets take a big leap forward in

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Speaker 1: two it's it's we don't project that that's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: We still project them as one of the worst teams

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Speaker 1: in the league. But you can tell the story because

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Speaker 1: of the added talent all over the roster, plus people

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Speaker 1: coming back from injury. You talked about cornerbacks. Don't forget

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Speaker 1: there's also two new safeties. There's white Head from Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay and LaMarcus Joyner who missed all last year with injury. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: there's lots of good There's good wide receivers, they have

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Speaker 1: a reasonable offensive line. Bruce Hall is our favorite running

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Speaker 1: back prospect. Like, there's lots of good stuff happening with

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Speaker 1: the Jets. It's really hard to tell the story, worry

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Speaker 1: of how the Atlanta Falcons surprise and make the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: but it's not hard to tell the story of how

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Speaker 1: it happens for the Jets. The problem for the Jets

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Speaker 1: is that the biggest variable is the quarterback, and he

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Speaker 1: was terrible last year he was. Now Josh Allen came

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Speaker 1: out and was I thought pretty terrible as a rookie

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Speaker 1: and Buffalo fifties percent completions and then he made a leap,

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Speaker 1: and then he made a quantum leap in year three.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying Zach Wilson is going to do that.

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Speaker 1: He does not have Brian Dable working with him. That

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Speaker 1: being said, you know, if you're looking at a year

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Speaker 1: to jump, Aaron, I would be willing to wager a

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Speaker 1: state dinner bet with you that Zach Wilson has a

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Speaker 1: better year than your guy Mac Jones in New England,

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Speaker 1: who will be without Josh McDaniels. And I think the Jets,

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Speaker 1: given their upgrades, how now have a better wide receiver

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Speaker 1: room than your Patriots. Yeah, that's an interesting beat. I

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Speaker 1: think I'll take it. Although, um, I'm also if he

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Speaker 1: on the Patriots offensive coordinate eater situation big time. But

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Speaker 1: I am I'm a Mac Jones believer. Not that he

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Speaker 1: can be one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: because he can't be. But he came in with a

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Speaker 1: high floor and he performed even you know, better than

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Speaker 1: anyone expected. And you're right about Wilson an improvement, Like,

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Speaker 1: you don't write off quarterbacks after one year. The history

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Speaker 1: is filled with quarterbacks who were awful as rookies and

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Speaker 1: were reasonable as sophomores, and by the time they got

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Speaker 1: to the third and fourth year they were stars. Now

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Speaker 1: you know, that doesn't mean they're going to turn things

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Speaker 1: around to quite the extent that Josh Allen did, because

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen is really a black swan because he was

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Speaker 1: such a bad prospect coming into the league. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's certainly possible that Wilson takes a big jump, And

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Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why I say the story

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Speaker 1: of how the Jets turn it around and make the

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Speaker 1: playoffs isn't much easier story to tell, Like Zack Wilson

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Speaker 1: takes a big jump after one year is away more

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Speaker 1: likely story than Daniel Jones takes a big jump after

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Speaker 1: three years. Yeah, yeah, Now do Daniel Jones does have

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Speaker 1: dable at his services? Do you expect him to be

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Speaker 1: a little bit better? And I will give defend Daniel

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Speaker 1: Jones a little bit. All of his weapons were injured

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Speaker 1: last year. I mean, see Kwan is gonna be healthy. Golladay, Um,

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Speaker 1: we'll see how long that yes healthy, I will the

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Speaker 1: Giants are worst projected team in the league or the

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Speaker 1: NFC in the league. What we like their head coach,

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Speaker 1: we like their front office, we like what they're doing

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Speaker 1: for the future. We don't like that roster for this year.

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Speaker 1: Oh geez, um that that's not good to know. I

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Speaker 1: think I bet the Giants to win the NFC East.

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Speaker 1: Small potatoes, But um, let's start with the NFC East. Um,

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Speaker 1: A lot of people like Philly. They added a J. Brown,

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Speaker 1: I think Cowboys regression. All the numbers kind of point

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Speaker 1: to that. And then there's Carson Wentz. I don't it

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Speaker 1: feels like a division that's kind of up for grabs.

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Speaker 1: We know Dallas has struggled to go back to back

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Speaker 1: years of quality. They don't do well when the pressure

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Speaker 1: is on, uh losing Amari Cooper. Your thoughts on who

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Speaker 1: who's the class of the NFC East. We love Philly,

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, I loved it at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: the off season when the Philly number was like eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. Now the Philly number is nine and

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Speaker 1: a half, and uh, you know that's a little harder

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Speaker 1: to bet, But um, we are numbers really like Philly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, look there's still questions about Shalen Hurts,

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Speaker 1: but this is a team that was good last year

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Speaker 1: and then added a lot of stuff. Hassan Reddick, Brandon

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Speaker 1: Graham coming back from injury. Uh, James Bradberry obviously a J.

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Speaker 1: Brown is a huge addition. Like, we really think that

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Speaker 1: they could do good things in Philadelphia. That is our

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Speaker 1: division favorite. We like the Cowboys too. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: see what you're saying about how the Cowboys seemed to

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Speaker 1: wilt under pressure, and I mean they were our number

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Speaker 1: one team last year and then they went into the

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Speaker 1: playoffs and it was terrible. Uh. That being said, I

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Speaker 1: mean there's still a lot of talent there, and there's

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Speaker 1: still plenty of talent on that defense, which took the

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Speaker 1: big leap forward last year. And I think Dallas is

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Speaker 1: going to be a playoff team again. Uh. What Washington

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Speaker 1: weren't out is high on and like I said, we

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Speaker 1: don't like the giant. Fox Sports Radio has the best

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Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

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Speaker 1: shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the

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Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

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Speaker 1: I wrote a piece for Fox Sports where you know,

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Speaker 1: betting Super Bowl futures. I thought the Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 1: in the Minnesota Vikings were two of the best bets

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Speaker 1: in the league. Twofold. Number one is because they're both

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Speaker 1: in the NFC, which I think has an easier path

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Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl than the a f C. And

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Speaker 1: number two, you know, maybe I'm going with the recency

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Speaker 1: bias of Zach Taylor succeeding in Cincinnati. Anybody who had

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Speaker 1: a cup of coffee with McVeigh turned into an awesome coach,

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Speaker 1: and O'Connell now has Kirk Cousins, justin Jefferson, Thilynn Dalvin Cook.

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Speaker 1: Like that offense could really really play well and they

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Speaker 1: might have a Bengals type year. I know the Bengals

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Speaker 1: got a little lucky, but any thoughts on Vikings and

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Speaker 1: Packers who lost a numbers weirdly love the Vikings. They

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Speaker 1: love rebound from last year's decline. Um, they like the

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Speaker 1: talent at it. Maybe we're giving them too much credit

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Speaker 1: for Zadarius Smith since he's coming off an injury. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, but you know he's very good player before

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Speaker 1: last year, and Cousins is consistently good. Like Cousins is

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Speaker 1: so Cousins is so frustrating. I think he's the player

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Speaker 1: in the NFL with the biggest gap between what scouting

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Speaker 1: people think of him and what the stats think of him.

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Speaker 1: But the stats constantly say Cousins like the eighth best

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Speaker 1: quarterback in the league. Like even the Pro Football Focus grades,

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Speaker 1: which are more scouting than they are analytics, they like Cousins.

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Speaker 1: Like everything says Cousins like, I know, he doesn't get

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Speaker 1: anyone excited, and he's no one's idea of the best

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Speaker 1: quarterback in the league. But he's consistently good. So if

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Speaker 1: that defense can turn things around and you've got a

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Speaker 1: quarterback who's consistently good, and I think they've got an

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Speaker 1: easy schedule based on our numbers, that's a dangerous, weirdly

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Speaker 1: dangerous team. Why do you think there's a to gap

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Speaker 1: with Cousins? Is it the funky throwing motion? Is it

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Speaker 1: that he was like a mid round pick who wallowed

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Speaker 1: in Washington and then you know they tagged him twice,

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Speaker 1: Like what is it about Kirk Cousins? He I mean,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't wow you with like plays out of structure. Um,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have the greatest arm in the league. You know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of it he's doing because he's in good

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Speaker 1: systems and and and I'm sure he'll be in a

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Speaker 1: good system. Now it's gonna be a different system, but

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Speaker 1: a good system with O'Connell and the scouting people just

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Speaker 1: feel like the talent is not there. He's Remember I

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Speaker 1: talked about win because of versus win with like he

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Speaker 1: might be the top of the win with guys, but

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Speaker 1: no one sees him as a win because of guy.

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Speaker 1: But the fact is every year he goes out there

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Speaker 1: and it's like the eighth or ninth best quarterback. I

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Speaker 1: also wonder if Zimmer kind of kind of held them back.

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Speaker 1: He's a he's a let's run the football kind of guy.

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Speaker 1: Let's win with defense, and their defense is terribleized fantasy wise,

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Speaker 1: we're expecting Cousins and Jefferson to be even better this

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Speaker 1: year because they're gonna throw the ball more in Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: Oh my, uh, Chicago Bears our worst team in the

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Speaker 1: n f C. We have that offensive line lightly better

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Speaker 1: than conventional wisdom because we see their defense rebounding a bit.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, the chapter goes into, you know, the

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Speaker 1: sort of discrepancy between what we think of the roster

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Speaker 1: and what the numbers say about their defense, possibly rebounding.

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Speaker 1: It's certainly they're a team that I'm like, we might

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Speaker 1: have them a little bit too high when we have

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Speaker 1: them as like the best team in the league instead

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Speaker 1: of like the best team. Uh, the Detroit Lions. And

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Speaker 1: we're not gonna do every single team, but the Detroit

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Speaker 1: Lions go three thirteen and one. They did, I believe

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Speaker 1: lose according to your right up three games at the horn.

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Speaker 1: You know, let's say that it's those are coin flip games.

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Speaker 1: Let's say they win two of those. Now they're a

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Speaker 1: five win team. Uh. They get a lot of guys

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Speaker 1: back on defense, I believe from injury. Some of their

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Speaker 1: skill position players came along. You know Dan Campbell for

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Speaker 1: all his warts and the jokey stuff about him. You know,

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Speaker 1: couldn't they sniff five hundred this year? Yeah, nignly reasonable.

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Speaker 1: And if things break their way and they get lucky

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Speaker 1: in close games and with fumble recoveries and stuff and injuries,

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Speaker 1: they absolutely could be a wild card team. Sure, absolutely, Aaron,

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Speaker 1: come on, good, could be like, you know, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be in the hunt in week twelve thirteen. They're still

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Speaker 1: gonna be in the hunt. We'll see what happens, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna go three and thirteen and

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Speaker 1: one again. So you touched on it close games, So

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Speaker 1: you know, five years ago, not a lot of people

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Speaker 1: knew we're looking at pythag and close games flipping year

423
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: to year and all that stuff that seems to be

424
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: very out there in the mainstream. Now you can't really

425
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 1: look at that and think you're getting any sort of

426
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: edge because it's so the gambling stuff so popular. Is

427
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: there anything new that you can look at besides close

428
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 1: games and pythag that is kind of forward thinking and

429
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: projection as I mean, I would look at a couple

430
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 1: of other luck things. I would look at fumble recovery, right,

431
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: and obviously it depends on the kinds of fumbles, because

432
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 1: you know, aborted snaps are recovered by the offense a

433
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 1: lot more than like if you throw a twenty yard

434
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: pass and the dude fumbles twenty yards down field. But

435
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 1: I look at fumble recovery rates. I would look at

436
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: a field goals against. The Patriots were remarkably lucky last

437
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 1: year when it came to field goals against them being missed,

438
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: which they really have no power over unless you blocked

439
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 1: the thing. Cleveland, on the other hand, the only field

440
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 1: goal missed against them all year was one that they

441
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: blocked against Joey Slive Houston. Every other field goal against

442
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: them went through the uprights. That is absolutely not going

443
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 1: to happen again. Yeah, home, I see. That's a great

444
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: nugget football outsiders, almanact you just deliver. Um Carolin, what

445
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 1: the way you talked about the Detroit Lions. I like

446
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: to think about the Carolina Panthers, given guys coming back

447
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: from injury, assuming McCaffrey's healthy, I actually think Donald wins

448
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 1: the job. But either Donald or Baker, I think this

449
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 1: could be a nine and eight team in that division. Um,

450
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: and and maybe steal a wild card. Your thoughts on

451
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 1: the Panthers. I think a healthy Ker Mayfield is a

452
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 1: lot better than Sam Donald. Thinking with Baker Mayfield as

453
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: their quarterback and that defense and j. C. Hornback, and

454
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: if he plays as well as he did in the

455
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: early part of the season, and Brian Burns is not

456
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: a guy people talk about, but he's very good. Um. Yeah,

457
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: I think that they could sort of like find their

458
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: way to nine and eight. The problem with the Panthers

459
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: is if they find their way to nine and eight

460
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: and then get decimated in the first round of the playoffs,

461
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: like is that a victory? And the long term like

462
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: what are they what are they building there? Really? Well,

463
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: I mean, is it getting to the playoffs? The plan?

464
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: Isn't that good? Yeah? I mean, you know, look, I

465
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 1: mean maybe I am a little bit of the jaded

466
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: New England or where I'm like, I don't want to

467
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 1: make it to the playoffs and just lose in the

468
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: first round. Whereas for some fan bases like Detroit, like

469
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: they have it, they never make it to the playoffs.

470
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: So just to make it to the playoffs is super exciting.

471
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: But if you're talking about building a winning franchise down

472
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: the line that can compete with the Chiefs and the

473
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,959
Speaker 1: Chargers in the next few years, like the Baker Mayfield thing,

474
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 1: doesn't really get you much as far as building for

475
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,199
Speaker 1: the future. I mean, they could build their defense for

476
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 1: the future this year, like J. C. Horne and Brian

477
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: Burns and there's you know, there's talented people there on

478
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: that defense, but uh, you know, it's they're still gonna

479
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: be looking for a quarterback. Now, Okay, is there a

480
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: scenario where you know, the Panthers, like you said, build

481
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: their defense. They've got several new pieces on the offensive line,

482
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: healthy McCaffrey, receivers are good, and they say, you know,

483
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,920
Speaker 1: Baker's okay, but guess what, Jimmy G's out there looking.

484
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: Do we go after Jimmy Garoppolo And all of a

485
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: sudden we're kind of in that maybe I don't know,

486
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 1: upper middle class in the NFC. Tom Brady says, I'm

487
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: I'm done, And next thing you know, you're looking around

488
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: and you're like, cheez. Russell Wilson has gone. Tom Brady's gone.

489
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers says, what one or two more years, you know,

490
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: where the Panthers we can be a perennial wild card

491
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: playoff team in the NFC. I don't think anybody thinks

492
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: Garoppolo is that guy. And I can't imagine that the

493
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: Panthers are gonna even though I think he's better than Mayfield,

494
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: I can't imagine the Panthers are gonna go out and

495
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 1: do another quarterback trade. Interesting, all right, I don't know

496
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: where Garoppolo. I don't honestly know where Garoppolo goes. Like,

497
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: the only things that makes sense are either Seattle or

498
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: Cleveland after the Watson suspension. Yeah, that's yeah. I like

499
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: the Cleveland line. I just it's pretty clear Seattle wants

500
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: to tank, right, anybody who's hyped Drew Lock this much?

501
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: I mean your numbers say Drew Locks were probably one

502
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: of the worst WHAT quarterbacks in the last decade. Yeah

503
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: he's not good. Yeah, um rams repeat. This almost never

504
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: happens in the NFL. And you know Ram's offensive line woes.

505
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 1: They lost a couple of guys. I know people are

506
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: excited about Allen Robinson, but I don't know. I like

507
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 1: the Matt Stafford drive, the McVeigh drive, like they got

508
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. I know that's kind of narrative e,

509
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: but I just I don't see a repeat happening for

510
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: these guys. I mean, it's very unlikely that a repeat

511
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: happens because there's plenty of other good teams. It's not

512
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: like they're the best team in the league by leaps

513
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 1: and bounds still be in the mix. Though. Allen Robinson

514
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 1: thing is really interesting. It's not just that he had

515
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks like last year, he was bad, Like he

516
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: just didn't look good and it's really hard to know.

517
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: Did he lose his step or did he just had

518
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: he just stopped caring about Chicago to such an extent

519
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 1: that he really just wasn't trying. And now that he's

520
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: on a good team, he's like back in business, baby.

521
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what happened with Randy Moss, so maybe

522
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 1: that happens with Alan Robinson. We'll wrap up the NFC

523
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: with the San Francisco forty Niners and Trey Lance. Probably

524
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: the most mysterious team in the NFC, right, I mean,

525
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: I don't know what to expect from Lance. I crunched

526
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: the numbers. I think he's thrown less than four hundred

527
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: passes in football in the last four years. Yea, and

528
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: most of those were Vision one double A. So how

529
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 1: do you how do you guys go about projecting this team?

530
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: Is this like a just to stay away a wait

531
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: and see. I mean, we have them projected slightly above average.

532
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: I mean you're gonna can still project your defense, and

533
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: you can still project like if it's a rookie quarterback,

534
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: but based on what the offense has done over the

535
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: last couple of years, it gives you an idea of

536
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: what the players are like around him. And you know,

537
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: we know the Shanahan system leads to a good offense,

538
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 1: and so you know, you come out with the offense

539
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 1: being like kind of average, even though it's a first

540
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: time starting quarterback, and so you end up with a

541
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: team that's slightly above average overall. But you're right that

542
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: the the range of possibilities is uh wide. Yeah, it's

543
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: a it's a weird one. I'm I'm a Jimmy G guy,

544
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: so I'm I'm not rooting against Lance, but I'm not

545
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: rooting for him. All right, let's go to the a

546
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: f C West, the best division in football. Mahomes Herbert

547
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: car Russell Wilson. I know what the numbers say, Aaron,

548
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: but I know sometimes you you're not a slave to

549
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: the numbers, and you come off of the numbers. The

550
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: Raiders were a ten and seven team last year, but

551
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: had a minus sixty point differential. They are a lock

552
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: for last in the a f C West. Correct. I

553
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: wouldn't say lock, but going into the season, they definitely

554
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: look like the worst of the four teams. They're better

555
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: than last year. They're not a minus sixty team this

556
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: year because of Davante Adams, among other things, Chandler Jones,

557
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: but uh yeah, they're the weakest of the four teams

558
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: in the n f C West. And this love for

559
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: the Chargers in Herbert, I mean, we could do an

560
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: hour on the history of the Chargers failures when expectations

561
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: are there, you know, I can still basically recall the

562
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: entire final game of the season Chargers Raiders. I wanted

563
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: to see Justin Herbert in the playoffs. Is there too

564
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: much being put on on the Chargers given they didn't

565
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 1: even make the playoffs last year? There are still some

566
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: questions about Staley. Where are you on the Chargers? We

567
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 1: have them as one of the top teams in the league.

568
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: I mean, talk about turning around the defense. J C.

569
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: Jackson and Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph Day to help

570
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: with the run defense. I mean, yeah, you know, Jerry

571
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: Tillery will still be on the field some but um,

572
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: you know, we love Staley as a coach. Being analytics people,

573
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: we think he's great. Herbert is a fantastic quarterback. The

574
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: defense should be much better this year. We are absolutely

575
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: riding with the Chargers. Absolutely interesting. I saw a fun

576
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: stat Errand that teams that spend like drunken sailors in

577
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: free agency. I think it's the last five years have

578
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: all increased their wins by like an average of like

579
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: three and a half or something, some kind of ridiculous number.

580
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: Last year, that was the Patriots, your Patriots. This year,

581
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: could it be the Jacksonville Jaguars who also dumped urban

582
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: Meyer and now Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence. Do you see

583
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: Jacksonville making a big leap? I'm gonna go away from

584
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: the numbers now subjectively emotionally, don't we all think that

585
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: urban Meyer might have been the worst coach in the

586
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: history of the NFL. Yeah, going from that to an

587
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: above average head coach, which is what Doug Peterson is,

588
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: shouldn't that have a really big impact on this team?

589
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: And we know how good Lawrence was coming out of college.

590
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: He was the best quarterback prospects since Andrew Luck Like

591
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: he should be much better this year. And so just

592
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: this is not an numbers argument, but if those things

593
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: are true, shouldn't Jacksonville be sniffing five hundred and then

594
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: and maybe even winning a week Division? I mean, we

595
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: have this is a week division. We have the whole

596
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: a f C South projected behind the entire a f

597
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: C West, maybe Jackson wins the thing at nine and eight.

598
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

599
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports

600
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app.

601
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: Search f s R to listen live. You're not in

602
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: on Matt Ryan and the Colts. Um, we we've been

603
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: having internal arguments on Matt Ryan and the Colt's. Like

604
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: Derek Lassen, who's our film guy, thinks Ryan still has

605
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: a lot left and he'll really fit into Frank Frike's offense.

606
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: Some of us feel like he's definitely declining and he's

607
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: not on the Tom Brady aging path. He's on the

608
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 1: more traditional quarterback aging path. So, um, you know, we

609
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: have the Colts defense declining a little bit. Jonathan Taylor

610
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: was oh good last year. He's not gonna be that

611
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 1: good again. There's real questions about the receivers. There's real

612
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: questions at left tackle. Um, I mean, I think the

613
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: Cults are more of a five hundred team. Their number

614
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: in Vegas right now is ten. Like I would really

615
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: go under on that. Really. Okay, So about three years

616
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: in a row, I bet the Titans under and Derrick

617
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: Henry's made me look like a jackass every single year.

618
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: This has to be the year, right there. There's no

619
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: way losing a j Brown, the questions with Tannehill and

620
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: the kid they drafted and Henry coming off the injury,

621
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: there's no way they're a double digit win team, right,

622
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: I mean I would go Titans under two. Yeah, Like

623
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: I said, I mean we've got the whole a FC

624
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: South with an average projection and all, you know, we

625
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: do all these different simulations. The average projection is under

626
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: five hundred for all four teams in the division. So um,

627
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: I would much rather go under ten on the Colts

628
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: than under nine on the Titans. But if you made

629
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: me go over or under on both of them, I'm

630
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: going under on both. Okay, when you hear the phrase,

631
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: um super Bowl hangover and somebody applies it to the Bengals,

632
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 1: do you just involuntary vomit in your mouth or like?

633
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: Is that just something so bad to a number to care?

634
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: But that being said, the Bengals got very lucky last year. However,

635
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: is that they were an average team during the riding season, right,

636
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,479
Speaker 1: I mean that's it's not there's no hangover, it's just

637
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: they weren't as good during the regular season. As they

638
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: were in the playoffs. So will they be better than

639
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: that this year? Probably? Will that mean more wins? Probably not.

640
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: And that's also has to do with the division being

641
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,239
Speaker 1: a lot tougher. I mean the Ravens injuries, Cleveland with

642
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: Watson and like you said, maybe Garoppolo. Yeah, let me

643
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: ask Pittsburgh nine seven and one with a below average

644
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger. I mean, if Trabiskie can be average, assuming

645
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: he wins the job, like Steelers defense is going to

646
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: keep them in the mix, right, that division once again

647
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: remains very tough. Yeah. Absolutely, assuming it's not Jacoby Brissette

648
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: at quarterback for clear one, that division looks very tough. Yeah.

649
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: I mean Baltimore is going to come back with all

650
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: those injuries last year and guys getting healthy and how

651
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: good Baltimore was in like, they're gonna rebound. I like

652
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: them to win that division. It's a strong division. The Yeah,

653
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: it's just looking at the a f C, we didn't

654
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: even mention the top two teams, the Chiefs and the Bills.

655
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 1: This feels like the first time in I guess three

656
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,959
Speaker 1: years that the Chiefs are not number one coming in right,

657
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: Losing Tyrequel has to matter, and and I'm assuming Buffalo.

658
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: You guys have them in the Super Bowl. We have

659
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 1: Buffalo as the Super Bowl favorite. Yeah. Now, I will

660
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: say our simulation always comes out very conservative, and this

661
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: year it came out even more conservative than usual. In

662
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: other words, the teams are clustered closer to five hundred then,

663
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: even more than they usually are for us, which sort

664
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: of suggests that it's like anybody's ball game. But out

665
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: of those teams, even though they're clustered close to five,

666
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: the best one is pretty clearly the Buffalo is. Yeah,

667
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: how do you guys adjust the numbers when you see

668
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: something like Brian Dable was hugely responsible for Josh Allen

669
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: becoming a great quarterback. We can all agree on that,

670
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 1: and now Brian Dable leaves, but you you can talk

671
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 1: about sort of what happens to teams when they have

672
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: new offensive coordinators and new schemes in general. But it's

673
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 1: really hard to do an analytical adjustment for a specific

674
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: coach because we just don't have the history, like how

675
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: many jobs has day Ball had where he ran the

676
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: actually ran the offense to be able to go Okay,

677
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 1: Dable is really good because I'll tell you the jobs

678
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: he's had where he's run the offense. We're not this

679
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: good until the last couple of years. So even if

680
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: we did like a special dable variable, it wouldn't actually

681
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 1: be that good. Yeah, So like, go go back to

682
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: the Vikings and O'Connell. I read somewhere that he's never

683
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 1: called plate, never called plays when he was with the Rams.

684
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: Now I get, I don't know how that, if that's factual,

685
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 1: how that works. But like to expect a guy from

686
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: going not calling plays to being the head coach of

687
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: a Viking team with some expectations Like, again, that's something.

688
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: How do you quantify that? I mean we quant I

689
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,439
Speaker 1: mean the fact is that, in general, all other things

690
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: being equal, teams with new coordinators do take to tend

691
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: tend to take a little step back. Um, we just

692
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 1: happen to like enough other things about the Vikings that

693
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: we like the Vikings overall, But in general, teams with

694
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: new coordinators do tend to take a step back. After that,

695
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: we can't really adjust for the specific coordinators because there's

696
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: no evidence of how good chevinal ConfL So how do

697
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 1: you adjust? I mean, you know, in part that's why

698
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: we write a bunch of words in our book instead

699
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: of just running a bunch of numbers like then, you know,

700
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: we want to talk about these coaches and who we

701
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: think is good and we think it's bad. We put

702
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: that in the paragraphs. So the to wrap up the

703
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: Macro NFL overview the Miami Dolphins, I love to add

704
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 1: Alabama then he had the injury. I have not like

705
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 1: what I've seen in the NFL, but smart teams with

706
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 1: the quarterback on the rookie deal at a star receiver.

707
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: Insert Tyreek Hill in there. In my gosh, it's who

708
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 1: can't find success with Wattle and uh the tight end

709
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 1: and Tyreek Hill, Like there's gonna be major problems there.

710
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: But they also have a new head coach, a guy

711
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: McDaniel from the from the four ninners. That's a lot

712
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: to take in. Our expectations too high erin from Miami,

713
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: I think a little bit, but I mean they could

714
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: match them. I think in general, it's like we have

715
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 1: the Patriots slightly above five hundred and the Dolphins slightly

716
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: below fire but it could definitely be switched. I mean,

717
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: neither of them is winning the division. Unless the Bills

718
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: get racked by injuries. The Bills are winning the division. Yes, clearly. Um,

719
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 1: all right, so now the largely speaking about gambling in futures. Listen,

720
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 1: I don't always advocate guys hey tie up money with

721
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: six months before the season starts, you know, to X

722
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: team to and over unders as well. I am curious

723
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: if any any over unders jumped out at you as man,

724
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: that would be maybe a little more than pizza money

725
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: or a super Bowl futures. Now I can toot my horn.

726
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: I did hit the Rams super Bowl future last year.

727
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 1: I just loved Stafford move. I was bullish on Stafford.

728
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: Is there any super Bowl future or over unders that

729
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: you really really like? I haven't looked at the Super

730
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: Bowl futures. I think the Eagles would probably be the

731
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: Super Bowl future that I would lead boards. I don't

732
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 1: know what the odds are, but given what conventional wisdom

733
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: is on them, I think that that would probably be

734
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 1: the one I would take to get the best odds.

735
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: I mean, the likelihood you're gonna hit it as low,

736
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 1: but it probably has good odds as far as over

737
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 1: unders go. I like under ten on the Colts. Mhm, uh,

738
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 1: I like uh. I actually kind of like under eight

739
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: and eight point five on the Cardinals. Fans is going

740
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 1: to really come back to Yeah, I like over eight

741
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 1: on the Saints. Oh yeah, we didn't talk about the Saints.

742
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 1: Your wide receiver room or went from a bunch of

743
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 1: guys last year to like Michael Um, Michael, Michael Thomas,

744
00:37:55,680 --> 00:38:00,040
Speaker 1: the kid, Yeah, and Jarvis Landry. But they have the

745
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: number one projected defense in our projections. So if they

746
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: manage to have an average offense with a top defense,

747
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: that is a good team. Good enough to beat Tampa Bay.

748
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: Probably not good enough to beat eight nine, I absolutely

749
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: think so, Aaron, is this a bit of a reach?

750
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: Should we be correlating unders to the rugged, brutal nf

751
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: a f C and more likely to bet overs in

752
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: the NFC where there's really only a handful of good teams. Oh,

753
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: I mean that's probably priced into the overs and unders. Vegas, Um,

754
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: what about NF NFC West and a f C West

755
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: play one another. So did that factor into your Cardinals

756
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 1: under eight and a half? I mean they have. They

757
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: have I believe, the second hardest schedule in the league

758
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: by our numbers, and it's the hardest schedule in the league.

759
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: If Watson is not suspended. Oh geez, Now, I do

760
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: need to ask about that when you see Kyler Murray

761
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: getting a massive contract. They just made the playoffs, but

762
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 1: you're looking at the under and second heart of schedule.

763
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 1: This is setting up for some internal issues, shall we say,

764
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 1: in Arizona going forward? Yeah, I mean, I I absolutely think, Um,

765
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: this is the year we're gonna find out if Cliff

766
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: Kingsbury can coach the second half of the season, because

767
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 1: with Hopkins coming back at mid season, they have all

768
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: the reason in the world to not go in the

769
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 1: tank in the second half the way that click Kingsbury's

770
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: teams have done going all the way back to Texas Tech.

771
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:38,959
Speaker 1: But no, you're absolutely right. If our projections are born out,

772
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:40,839
Speaker 1: and you know, they don't all come true, but if

773
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: the Arizona one does, there's gonna be a lot of

774
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 1: people sniping at each other in Arizona. By the way,

775
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: Arizona opens with Kansas City, then at the Raiders, then

776
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: versus the Rams, so three playoff teams from last year,

777
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 1: then at the Panthers cross country trip versus the Eagles,

778
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: and see same. The end of their schedule is really hard.

779
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: They have three straight road games that are usually against

780
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 1: good teams. Yeah, it is not a favorable schedule. You're right, man,

781
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: that is brutal. Um. All right, Aaron, any other thoughts

782
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: you have on the league? Um, you know, any fantasy

783
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: thoughts other than the Kirk cousins justin Jefferson Love. Are

784
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: we gonna see Burrow step back a little bit? You think? No,

785
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: I think Burrow will step forward. I think Burrow will

786
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: take fewer sacks and don't I mean, you know, his

787
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: numbers per attempt may not be quite as good as

788
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 1: last year, but I think he'll probably have more attempts

789
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: because the offense will be on the field more because

790
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 1: they'll take fewer sacks. Yeah, they got three new starting

791
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: offensive lineman. You guys historically don't have anything on when

792
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 1: a team adds two or three new starters on the

793
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 1: offensive line. Not anything that's at the tip of my tongue. No, yeah, yeah,

794
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: that that's the kind of thing that I have concerns with,

795
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: Like that doesn't happen overnight. Right, There's no question that,

796
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 1: you know, all of the things being equal, it's good

797
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: to have continuity on the offensive line, but when you're

798
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: as bad as they were last year, you don't want continuity.

799
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: You want new And lastly, Aaron Um, all we heard

800
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 1: last year was man, Denver's got such a great roster.

801
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 1: The defense is loaded, the receivers. Uh, Denver just needs

802
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Well they have one now. Um. Unfortunately, schedule

803
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,760
Speaker 1: is very tough. But where are you on the Broncos?

804
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 1: Is this if they made the Super Bowl? Would you

805
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: be stunned? No? I wouldn't be stunned. But you have

806
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: to read the Denver chapter to get the full story.

807
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna give a quick version right here. People

808
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 1: do not understand last year's Broncos at all. Because of

809
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: the way they played at a very slow pace and

810
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: the way their special teams were and the way the

811
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 1: offense didn't turn the ball over very much. Their defense

812
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 1: had the like the best average starting line of scrimmage

813
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 1: of any defense. So when you look at yards per

814
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: play and yards per drive rather than points allowed, Denver

815
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: was a slightly below average defense last year. Like the

816
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: fact that they were third in the league in points

817
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: allowed is a complete like statistical distortion. They were better

818
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: on offense than you think and worse on defense. So

819
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: I don't think that Denver defense is going to be

820
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 1: good this year. Yes, I know, Patrick certain not disson

821
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: on Patrick. Certain, I know Gregory and Chub. Let's see

822
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: if Gregory and Hub can stay healthy. But overall, the

823
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 1: numbers suggest it's not a really good defense. Their offense,

824
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: on the other hand, does have weapons and a good

825
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 1: offensive line and now Russell Wilson, so we like their

826
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: offense this year. But the idea that you're adding Russell

827
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: Wilson to this great defense is a statistical distortion. So

828
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: how does that happen with the with the average starting position?

829
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 1: Is that a big pro Their special teams was just incredible. Uh,

830
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: it's not that their special teams was good. It was

831
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: that they play in Denver, and so you've got the

832
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: high altitude leading to longer kickoffs and longer punts, and

833
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: their offense just didn't turn the ball over much and

834
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: they just played very slowly. So they one reason that

835
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: Denver allowed so few points is they faced fewer drives

836
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 1: than any other defense because their offense played so slowly. Geezy,

837
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,760
Speaker 1: that's the kind of stuff that you're not just gonna

838
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: get reading regular stories. Football Outsiders Almanac Almanac. Aaron shots Eron,

839
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 1: I love bringing you on and chopping this up will

840
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: definitely have you on during the season. Thank you. For

841
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: this stuff and um five nine pages. Man, how you

842
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: spent your summer vacation? Everybody's thankful. Yeah. The the online

843
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 1: version of the Football Outsiders Almanac. Reading it online and

844
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 1: downloading a PDF. You need to be an FO plus subscriber,

845
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 1: so go to our site Football Outsiders dot com slash subscribe.

846
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: There's actually a twent off sale until the end of

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00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 1: July on FO Plus subscriptions. Or you can get the physical,

848
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 1: big gigantic it kills mosquitoes when you smash them version

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00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: of the book at Amazon. Just search for Football Outsiders

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00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: Almanac two. Yeah, holy cow, great stuff. All right, man,

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Speaker 1: thanks a lot, and uh, I would say good luck

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00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: to your patriots, but you know I'm a jet sky

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00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: still all right, Aaron, Let's let's all avoid the bills.