1 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:08,159 Speaker 1: Welcome to another edition of Fair Territory. Happy to be 2 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: joining you on this Monday in the middle of December. 3 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: Hopefully you are good wherever you are. And we've got 4 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: one principal topic to talk about this morning. It's not 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: the topic we've been talking about for weeks, Shoho Tani. 6 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: It is another Japanese player, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the free agent 7 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: right hander, the twenty five year old who is the 8 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: literal bell of the ball in free agency right now. 9 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: It is likely, though not certain, that his decision will 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: come this week, and there are a number of teams interested. 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: You heard over the weekend that he met for a 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: second time with both the Mets and Yankees. But let's 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: look at all of the teams that are in the 14 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: mix years, some obviously to a greater degree than others. 15 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: It's the Mets, It's the Yankees, It's the Dodgers again. Yes, 16 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: the Blue Jays kind of on the periphery here. Giants 17 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: reportedly have made a big big as have the Red 18 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: Sox and the Phillies too, sort of on the periphery 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: they're in, but this is more in their efforts to 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: get a foothold in Japan. Kind of show that they're 21 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: serious about Japanese players. So Yamamoto, because of all this interest, 22 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: because of his age, because of his accomplishment, has a chance, 23 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: a chance to become the highest paid pitcher of all time. 24 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 1: Garrett Cole currently holds that record both in AAV thirty 25 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: six million and total value three hundred and twenty four million. 26 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: I'm talking here about total value. I don't think Yamamoto's 27 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: beating Cole's AAV. Could he get above three hundred and 28 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: twenty four that would seem unlikely. But again, let's look 29 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: at who this guy is, because he is a special 30 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: cat when it comes to free agency, really more than anything, 31 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: because of what you see right there, the age, but 32 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: also the three straight Pacific League MVPs, the three straight 33 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: Salamura Awards. Those are the japan these versions of the 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: cy young and his numbers the last three seasons combined. 35 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: All right, I know people don't care about win loss, 36 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: but he's fifty to sixteen. That kind of is pretty 37 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: good and more important than one point four to two era, 38 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 1: and even more important than that not on the screen here, 39 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: but you know, sarahs of The Athletic wrote about this recently. 40 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: His pitch characteristics, his pitch shapes, all of that, all 41 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: of the things that can be measured objectively today, well 42 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: he grades out really well on almost all of those 43 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: as well. So here we go. Now here's the thing 44 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: to remember with Yamamoto as well. We can talk about 45 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: a three hundred million dollar contract, a three hundred and 46 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: fifty million dollar contract, but the team that gets him 47 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: is also going to have to pay his Japanese team 48 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: York's Buffalo's a posting fee, and the posting fee is 49 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: going to be quite substantial as well as, of course 50 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: the guarantee, because the higher the guarantee, the higher the 51 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 1: posting fee. And here's how the system works. If you 52 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: look at it, it's broken down by basically how many 53 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,399 Speaker 1: millions he earns. Twenty percent on the first twenty five 54 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: million will go to the posting fee. That's five million dollars, 55 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: seventeen point five percent on the next twenty five million, 56 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: and then fifteen percent on the total exceeding fifty million. 57 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: I wrote this last week. If Yamamoto gets three hundred million, 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: that's going to put the total posting fee at about 59 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: forty six point nine million total price, almost three hundred 60 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: and fifty million So this guy is going to cost 61 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: a ton of money, but teams obviously believe just by 62 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: their interest alone that he is worth it. Obviously, when 63 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: any picture comes over from Japan, any player comes over 64 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: from Asia or any place in the world, you don't 65 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: know how they will translate to the Major League quality environment. 66 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: But there's going to be a big bet made on 67 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: yr Huinobu Yamamoto. I don't know who's going to get him, really, 68 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: no one knows, but the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers would 69 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: seem to be the favorites year and. 70 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: Understandably so they've got the money and they've got the 71 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: wherewithal to do this. 72 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: Each of those teams is kind of hell bent on 73 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: making this happen for different reasons. The Dodgers because they 74 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: still need starting pitching with Otani out for the coming year, 75 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: and even after getting Tyler Glass now the Yankees also 76 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: need starting pitching, and the Mets, yes, they need starting 77 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: pitching two but they see Yamamoto as a piece that 78 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: will get them where they need to be as they 79 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: try to compete, not so much in twenty four but 80 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: in twenty five and beyond. So that's where we are 81 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: with Yamamoto should resolve this week, at least hopefully resolves 82 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: this week, and then we will go forward with the 83 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: rest of free agency. Also in the news this week 84 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: the Tyler Glass Now trade and extension. This was a 85 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: big deal for the Dodgers. And clearly, knowing Otani cannot 86 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: pitch in twenty four and even though he is supposedly 87 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: going to be back in twenty five, you don't know 88 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: what you're getting, then they need to bolster what they have. 89 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 1: The Tyler Glass Now trade should do that. Let's look 90 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: at their rotation now that glass Now is in the mix. 91 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: It's starting to look better. 92 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: It would look even better if you added Yamamoto to 93 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 2: this list of names. 94 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: It's glass Now, it's Bueller, it's Ryan Yarborough, Bobby Miller, 95 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 1: who had a great debut last year, and it's Emmit Shean. 96 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: Of course Ryan Peppio was supposed to be in that rotation, 97 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: but he went back to the Rays in this trade now. 98 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: In addition to the trade, of course glass Now as 99 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: a condition of the trade. Actually, the Dodgers would not 100 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: have done this unless it happened. He signed an extension 101 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: five years, one hundred and thirty six point five million 102 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: dollars for Tyler Glass. Now, that to me seems like 103 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: a fair deal. He is one of the most talented 104 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: pictures in the game when he is on the mound. 105 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: Problem is, he's not always on the mound, so he's 106 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: not going to be a thirty million dollar guy just 107 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: at this stage of his career. But the Dodgers figure 108 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: that he will be someone who can contribute more than say, 109 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: Rich Hill did, but they'll be counting on him for 110 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 1: maybe fewer innings than they would from a Clayton Kershaw 111 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 1: in his prime. For example. I don't know that you're 112 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: getting one hundred and eighty innings from Tyler Glass now, 113 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: but you still should be in good position to build 114 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: your rotation around him and one more. They're going to 115 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: need one more at least, and if it's not Yamamoto, 116 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: maybe they make a trade for Dylan Ceese or someone 117 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: like that, but clearly they still need to upgrade the rotation. 118 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: The good news for the Dodgers, in part because of 119 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: the Otani massive deferrals, is their position with regard to 120 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: the luxury tax threshold. Now they're over the first threshold 121 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: to be expected. 122 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: But really where they are is kind of enviable for 123 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 3: a team with their resources because compared to the highest threshold, 124 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 3: they've got a lot of room. 125 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: And let's take a look at where they stand in 126 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: the luxury tax threshold situation. All right, there are the 127 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: thresholds for twenty twenty four, two hundred and thirty seven, 128 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty seven, two hundred and seventy seven, 129 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: and two hundred and ninety seven million the Dodgers right 130 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 1: now per fangraphs, and this is an estimate, but it's 131 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: a pretty accurate one usually from fangraphs, they're at two 132 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five point seven million, so they're below 133 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: the second threshold. And most importantly, they're about forty million 134 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: dollars below the top threshold. And that's the one team's 135 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: want to avoid. That's the Steve Coen tax, the one 136 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: that forces you to move your draft pick, your first 137 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: draft pick in the first round back ten spots. Dodgers, 138 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: like any team, would want to avoid that. 139 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: And even if they signed Yamamoto, it seems to me 140 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: that they're gonna be in pretty good position to do 141 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 2: just that, even while adding perhaps a few other secondary pieces. 142 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: So Yamamoto the big focus glass now trade complete. Once 143 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: Yamamoto goes down, we're gonna see a lot of other 144 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: things happen, and we'll be talking about that and the 145 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: pace of this free agency in the inside dish. 146 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 2: This is the part of the show where I go 147 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 2: inside one of the stories I've written recently, inside a 148 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 2: trend in the game. 149 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: Inside whatever we decide is the inside dish for that week. 150 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: This week, I want to talk about the pace of 151 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: the market, because, let's face it, it hasn't exactly been 152 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: breakneck speed here with the way free agency has proceeded. 153 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic compiled a 154 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: list of the top forty free agents at the start 155 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: of free agency, top forty people that they thought would 156 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: be the most attractive to teams, and so far, of 157 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: those top forty, only thirteen have signed. Thirteen out of 158 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: forty free agents, the top forty are under contract or 159 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: in agreement with new teams. And that's with Lord Discuriel 160 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: Junior agreeing with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. That's pretty 161 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: low number. And people ask all the time, and why 162 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: doesn't baseball go faster? Why can't baseball be like the 163 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: NBA and the NHL and the NBA, and I've touched 164 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: on this on foul territory. I've touched on it in 165 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: fair territory as well. Baseball is different because it is 166 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: not a salary cap league and there's not space running 167 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: out and teams don't need to necessarily rush to get 168 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 1: players under contract. The Union has historically opposed a salary 169 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: cap and opposed any restrictions on a free market system. 170 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: So while we can talk about deadlines in baseball, the 171 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: Union considers that a restriction. Now you can argue, and 172 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: I have argued, and people on the club side have 173 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: argued that if you put some deadlines in effect, it 174 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: might not be such a bad thing. If you go 175 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: back to the lockout free agency. Remember that a couple 176 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: of years ago when there was a deadline of December 177 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: first for the lockout. The lockout was coming on that date. 178 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: There was a frenzy in the week before those The 179 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: Secret and Semion deals took place. Then the five hundred 180 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: million dollars combined, the Rangers spent, mac Scherzer got his 181 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: record AAV from the Mets. There was a lot happening. 182 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: But again, the people on the players side, the union, 183 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: the agents, all of those folks. They see a deadline 184 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: as a problem, and I've talked about maybe a trade 185 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: deadline at the end of the winter meetings. I don't 186 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: know that that would work either right now. The way 187 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: things go, once in a while, we're going to have 188 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: a winter like this. Last year was a better pace, 189 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: certainly twenty one it was a different pace with a lockout. 190 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: But this year, because of Otani, because of Yamamoto, those 191 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: free agencies have slowed things down. And people in baseball 192 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: sometimes complain when there's a guy out there like a 193 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: Yamamoto or an Otani. Hey, these guys are holding up 194 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: the market. It's not right they're holding up the market. 195 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 2: Uh. 196 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,719 Speaker 1: Sorry. These guys are under no deadlines. They don't have 197 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: to sign by a certain date. Actually, Yamamoto does have 198 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: to sign by a certain date January fourth, So his 199 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: pace is clearly moving at a pretty good speed considering 200 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: he has a full forty five days. But generally speaking, 201 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: we saw it with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Players 202 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: can take as long as they like, and they can't 203 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: be worried about the rest of the market. 204 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 2: They have to worry about themselves first, and the rest 205 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: of the market will figure itself out. 206 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: My certain players get hurt the longer this goes, yes, 207 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 1: because they could get squeezed as teams say, there's only 208 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: a few of you left, it's getting late. You take 209 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: this deal, or you're not one of us. That could happen. 210 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: But again, only thirteen out of forty players signed, Otani 211 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: being the biggest among them Aaron Nolas, Sonny Gray and 212 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: Water Rodriguez. The big starting pitchers, Heimer Condellerio junghu Lei 213 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: signed with the Giants last week. He's their first big 214 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: pickup of the offseason. Michael Waka and Seth Lugo go 215 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: to the Royals. Guriel I mentioned Flaherty to the Tigers, 216 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: My Aida to the Tigers as well, Craig Kimberl to 217 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: the Orioles, and Jason Hayward back to the Dodgers. Those 218 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: are the Lucky thirteen and also some of the teams 219 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: in Anyamamoto, The Yankees, for example, are going to continue 220 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: to do things. If they do indeed sign him, Yankees 221 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 1: would probably try to supplement their bullpen a little bit, 222 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: maybe add yet another their starter, not an expensive type, 223 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: someone who could eat innings. But the Yamamoto signing will 224 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: signal the next phase of free agency. It also will 225 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: or should open up the trade market. And we've got 226 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: some pitchers still out there who are available in trade 227 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: or at least have been discussed as possible trade candidates. 228 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: Who am I talking about? Well, this list right here, 229 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: Dylan sees he's going to go. I'm convinced of that. 230 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: But to some extent, the White Sox are waiting for 231 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 1: the Yamamoto situation to resolve, when they will have their 232 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: suitors on tilt, more desperate, more urgent. They're gonna want 233 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: to hold off till then. They've sent that message throughout 234 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: the industry pretty clearly. Corbyn burns it depends on which 235 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: day you kind of ask to see whether he actually 236 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: is really going to be traded. The latest I'm hearing 237 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: is no. But I've heard yes, I've heard no. I've 238 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: heard in all different ways the entire offseason from er 239 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: Valdez is a guy that the Astros are not listening 240 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: on seem right now, but other teams are wondering if 241 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: they might. The Astros are right above the first luxury 242 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: tax threshold. Only once under owner Jim Crane have they 243 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: gone above the threshold that was in twenty twenty, and 244 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: as it turned out, because of the pandemic, there weren't 245 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: even penalties assessed that year, so he could go. But 246 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 1: right now it doesn't seem like there's any real activity there, 247 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: and Shane Bieber was the last pitcher on that list. 248 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: We'll have to. 249 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 2: See what the guardians decide, whether they can get enough 250 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 2: for Biaber, whose reputation in the industry has kind of 251 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 2: regressed since his twenty twenty American League scy Young award. 252 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: His velos down as results aren't quite what they were. 253 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: Teams don't see him in the same light. But what 254 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: I'm trying to say here, the way I will wrap 255 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 1: it up, is that free agency is going to happen. 256 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: Trades are going to happen. It's just taken longer than usual. 257 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: Each off season is different. Each off season has its 258 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: unique characteristics. This one had a unicorn at the top 259 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: and a very unusual posting situation with the Japanese pitcher 260 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: right in the middle. Where we are right now, So 261 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: we'll get there. It's just going to take a little 262 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: bit more time. Time now for the dude and dork 263 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: of the Week. The dude of the week, I'm going 264 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: to give it to the Dodger's front office. Now, from 265 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: what we've heard, the Otani deferrals were not the Dodger's idea. 266 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: They were Otani's idea. In fact, Andrew Friedman, president of 267 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: Baseball Operations for the Dodgers, said he wouldn't have had 268 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: the guts to ask for deferrals that massive. Well, not 269 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: only do they get the deferrals, which makes this deal 270 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: almost a sweetheart deal for them, depending on how you 271 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: value it. The present day is somewhere in the forty 272 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: three to forty six million dollar range. There were different 273 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: valuations based on different interest rates. We don't need to 274 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: get into all that, but the luxury tax charge is 275 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: going to be forty six million. That's pretty good for 276 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: Shoe Otani considering that his guarantee is seven hundred and 277 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: the other part of the Dodgers' contractual situation with Otani 278 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: with their agreement, and this is why they're also Dudes 279 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: of the Week their front office and ownership. Andrew Friedman 280 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: gets more security perhaps than any general manager type in 281 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: Major League history has ever had because of that clause 282 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: in the contract that allows Otani to opt out in 283 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:28,479 Speaker 1: any year in which Andrew Friedman as President baseball Operations 284 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: or Mark Walter as the owner of the team decides 285 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: to depart the organization. So if one of those guys leaves, 286 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: Otani can be out that year. Now, I don't know 287 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: that Andrew Friedman, after eighteen years as a lead front 288 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: office executive, wants to work ten more years. But if 289 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: he wants to in this president capacity, he certainly has 290 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: a lot of leverage because I don't imagine the Dodgers 291 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: are going to want Otani to opt out. So Dodgers' ownership, Dodgers' 292 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: front office, dudes of the week, they get the sweetheart deal, 293 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: as sweethearted deal as you can imagine for seven hundred million, 294 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: and they get these unbelievable protections because Otani wants continuity 295 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: in the organization. Now, dork of the week, or I 296 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: guess I should say dork's of the week the Red 297 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: Sox front office and ownership. Now the off season is 298 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: not over, and this is kind of a pending dork 299 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: over the week because they've done some things Craig Breslow 300 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: as a new chief baseball officer that have been pretty 301 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: good things on the margins. They swapped out essentially Alex 302 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: Berdugo for Tyler O'Neill made some other lesser moves. So far, 303 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: so good. The problem is that at the start of 304 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: the offseason, when the Red Sox named Breslow to his 305 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: new position, Tom Warner, the chairman of the team, promised 306 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: that the Red Sox would go full throttle to improve 307 00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: the roster. What we've seen so far, like I said, 308 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: some nice moves, but of the lesser variety. This is 309 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: not full throttle. Now signing Yamamoto, yes, that would certainly 310 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: qualify as full throttle. If they don't get Yamamoto, would 311 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 1: Blake Smell qualify, Would Jordan Montgomery qualify? Not so short, 312 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: they would help, They would be closer to that description. 313 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: But with the Red Sox it's put up a shut 314 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: up because they fired Im Bloom basically because they felt 315 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: he could not take them to the next level, he 316 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 1: could not make the kinds of bold acquisitions that need 317 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: to be made. Well, here we are. Bold acquisitions still 318 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: need to be made pending Dorks of the Week the 319 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: Red Sox Front office and ownership tyn Alfod, Brilli and Ken. 320 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: This is the segment of the show where I answer 321 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: your questions, and the first one this week I believe 322 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: is on the Cubbies. Let's go to the questions. This 323 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: one comes from Bill Bernardoni. Bill asks, what is the 324 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 1: latest with the Cubs? I know the Cubs were always 325 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: work in silence, but are you hearing anything trade with Cleveland, Miami, Seattle? 326 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: What are the chances Morell gets dealth given the focus 327 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: on defense and his complete lack of defensive ability, Bill, 328 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: you're being a little bit harsh on Morel. 329 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 2: I wouldn't call it a complete lack of defensive ability, 330 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 2: not necessarily a strength, but I don't know. 331 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: If I go that far. Patrick Mooney the Athletic wrote 332 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: about the Cubs a couple of days ago, and he 333 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 1: put it really well. They're in an interesting spot. They 334 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: have a lot of prospects coming, a lot of kids 335 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: that they want to take a look at and make 336 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: sure that they get opportunities. And yet they obviously want 337 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: to compete this season. They hired cred Council so they 338 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 1: could better compete in the National League Central, So they 339 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 1: clearly want to do some things, but the kinds of 340 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 1: things they do maybe will be a little bit more 341 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: restrained than fans might like. The number one thing for 342 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 1: me is Cody Balinger or a left handed hitter to 343 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: replace Cody Ballinger right handed. I know there's been some 344 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: talk of Matt Chapman there, and he would fit. He's 345 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 1: a premier defender light Ballinger, but at the same time, 346 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: he's another right handed guy, and to me, they have 347 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: to get stronger from the left side. 348 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 2: They also need a frontline starter to replace Marcus Stroman. 349 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to be able to 350 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 2: get one, but ideally that's something they would look at, 351 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 2: and they're getting interest in some of their younger pitchers, 352 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 2: guys like Ben Brown and Hayden Wiznsky. 353 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if they could trade, package a deal 354 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: and put something together to get one of the available starters, 355 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 1: but it's something they certainly can consider. Again, there is 356 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: this kind of difficult balance that they're trying to strike. 357 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: But if I'm a Cubs fan, like a Red Sox fan, I'd. 358 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 2: Be expecting this team to do some bigger things in 359 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 2: the weeks ahead. 360 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 1: All right. The next question, it comes from Champa Bay Beast. 361 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: Champa Bay Beast asks, do you see the Rays trading 362 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,239 Speaker 1: a Rosa Rain is still barring an insane offer? There 363 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: are other ways to shed salary if needed. Tampa Baby's 364 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: I asked this question of a raised person just in 365 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: the last couple of days after the Glass Now Margot 366 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: trade and was told no, the intention is not to 367 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: trade a Rosarana. They feel now that they can carry 368 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 1: his projected nine million dollars salary in arbitration. The Rays 369 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: in the Glass Now Margot trade saved about thirty three 370 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: million dollars. They cut their payroll from about one twenty 371 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: five to ninety five. Now ninety five million for the 372 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: Rays would still be a franchise record, So it's possible 373 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 1: they might trade another hitter Harold Ramirez at about four 374 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: point four million, or Ezac Paradis at about three point 375 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 1: three million, if they get the deal they want. But 376 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 1: I don't know that they can pare off more offense here. 377 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: They already are facing the possible loss of Wander Franco 378 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 1: for goodness knows how long because of the investigation going 379 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: on in the Dominican Republic, and they're going to try 380 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 1: to field as competitive a team as possible. So I 381 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 1: would expect the Rays to do what the Rays always do, 382 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: be opportunistic. If something comes along that they like, they'll 383 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: grab it, and people have asked also about their rotation, 384 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: and the rotation without class now has a different look. 385 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,199 Speaker 1: It's going to be Efflyn Savali, Pepio coming over in 386 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: the trade, Taj Bradley, and maybe Zach Lettel or maybe 387 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: Shane bos coming off Tommy John surgery. So they probably 388 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 1: could use one more starter to add to that mix. 389 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: But the Rays are the Rays, and we'll just see 390 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: what they come up with. It's always something a little 391 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: bit different, all right. Final question it comes from Chris Saunders. 392 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: Chris asked, do you think the Mariners will do anything now? 393 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: A lot of Mariners fans are asking these questions or 394 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: kinds of questions, and a lot of Mariners fans are 395 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 1: frustrated and clearly this team is operating under budgetary restrictions. 396 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: Why because Exfinity, the largest cable operator in the Pacific Northwest, 397 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: is going to charge more for root sports the Mariners 398 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: regional network this year. They're raising the price that people 399 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: have to pay to get the Mariners games in their 400 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: local package. Mariner's officials, rightly or wrongly, are concerned that 401 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 1: this is going to cut into the number of people 402 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: watching their games, the amount of money coming in and 403 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 1: that is why they are taking the course that they are. 404 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: It's not the front officer's choice, it's ownership's choice. What 405 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,919 Speaker 1: have they done. They've traded Aohanu Suarez, They've declined to 406 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: make ta Oscar Hernandez a qualifying offer, and they've also 407 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: made a deal with Jared Kellening, so they're essentially down 408 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: three position players, two middle of the order bats. Now. 409 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: I don't know how Jerry Depoto, the president Baseball Operations, 410 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,479 Speaker 1: and Justin Holland at a GM, is going to come 411 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: out of this. They want to retain their younger starters 412 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: two reasons. They're affordable one and starting pitching is the 413 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: strength of the team. But clearly they're going to need 414 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: to be creative in the weeks ahead, and it's to 415 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: be really interesting to see what the Mariners try to do. 416 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 1: I want to thank everyone for their questions, everyone for watching, 417 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 1: for listening. You know where to find us YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Like, subscribe, 418 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: whatever the case might be. We will be back with 419 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 1: another show between Christmas and New Year's I don't know 420 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: exactly which day yet, but we'll kid you post it. 421 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: Thanks guys. 422 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 4: Hey get in on the action with the ft fam 423 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 4: at BETMGM New customers use the bonus code foul foul 424 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 4: for a fifteen hundred dollars first bet offer. Download the 425 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 4: BETMGM Sportsbook aap on iOS or Android, or visit betmgm 426 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 4: dot com. Sign up and deposit at least ten dollars 427 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 4: into your betmgm sportsbook account. 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