1 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Hello, Stephanomics. Here the podcast that brings you the global economy. 2 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:09,959 Speaker 1: And if you think about the things that are well 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: functioning modern economy is supposed to deliver, food would have 4 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: to come pretty high on the list. If you're not 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: living in poverty worried about where your next meal is 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 1: going to come from, you might well take it for granted. 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: But not only more, or at least not for many 8 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: families in Europe. In the UK, last mark, food price 9 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: inflation hit a forty five year high, with prices nineteen 10 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: percent higher than a year ago, and across the channel, 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: food price inflation has also been close to twenty percent 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: for several months. If you're sitting in the US, you 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: probably remember food prices did jump sharply last spring in 14 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. But there the spike 15 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: proved temporary. That's not been the case in Europe, and 16 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: people are not happy about it. In a minute, we'll 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: discuss the devil stating implications for the traditional English breakfast 18 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: and ask a former chief economist from the US Department 19 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: of Agriculture why it's taking so long for food prices 20 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: to ease off. Also whether the experience of the past 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 1: year should change the way we think about the global 22 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: food chain. But first, Rome based economy reporter Alessandra Miliaccio 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: explains how soaring prices have even put the basic human 24 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: right to a pizza at risk. 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 2: Inflation rates may be slowing across Europe, but you wouldn't 26 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: know it looking at someone's grocery bill. Food prices are 27 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: still rising at an alarming pace, and there's only so 28 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 2: much that governments can do to help people cope. Let's 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 2: start at La Mansune, a small, family run restaurant nestled 30 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: in the picture perfect town of Core, located in the 31 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: Sailer Valley in southwest France. A few tables, a cozy 32 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 2: room with a view, and a set menu with local 33 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 2: specialties allow owner Alin Falgier to stay afloat the titles. 34 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: He's kept most items on the menu between sixteen and 35 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 2: nineteen euros. But it's a struggle because well we. 36 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 3: Other prices are hard, from bread to cereals and animal feeds, 37 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 3: and from that you have price increases on meat like beef, 38 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 3: lamb poultry, and the same for the fresh fruits and 39 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 3: vegetables everything, and for fruits it's even worse. The biggest 40 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: increase since last year. It's not easy today, Profact. 41 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg has been tracking custom food and this is across France, Spain, 42 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: and Italy throughout Europe's worst cost of living crisis in 43 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 2: forty years. To calculate them, we figured out how much 44 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 2: it would cost to make a traditional dish in each country, 45 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: from classic cocoven to pizza margarita. To make cocoven, you 46 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: need to start with chicken, and those prices jumped about 47 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 2: eighteen percent in the year through March. Wine is another 48 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 2: major ingredient, which costs eight point four percent more than 49 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 2: it did a year ago. You can also add carrots, 50 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 2: but it'll cost. 51 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 4: You more than thirty three percent now compared to last March. Meanwhile, 52 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 4: overall inflation in France is running at six point seven percent, 53 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 4: still historically high, but pretty low by comparison. Much the 54 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 4: same is happening in Italy, where the price of enjoying 55 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: a classic pizza margharita made with cheese, tomato and basil 56 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 4: has been at least twenty percent higher than a year 57 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 4: ago for eight consecutive months. That's more than double the 58 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 4: nation's headline inflation rate, and even with over ninety billion 59 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 4: euros of government aid spent to subsidize energy and gas 60 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 4: bills and tax cuts for fuel prices as the pump well, 61 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 4: there's just so much politicians can do when prices go up. 62 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 4: The government managed to reduce the impact of the first 63 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 4: wave of inflation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but as 64 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 4: prices rise across a wider range of goods, including food, 65 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 4: it's becoming too expensive to intervene. Dominic Co Lombardi leads 66 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 4: the Policy Observatory at the Lewis University School of Government 67 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 4: in Rome. He says governments can't keep trying to protect 68 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 4: everyone from inflation. 69 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 5: The inflictionary outlook has evolved. Headline inflation is falling. However, 70 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 5: core inflation shows to be more persistent than expected, and 71 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 5: this comes heavy government support that has further narrow the 72 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 5: physical space. Let's not forget the pandemic, the shot course, 73 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 5: but the pandemic and then of course the energyender GYO 74 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 5: political crisis. So moving forward, the only physical support that 75 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 5: looks feasible is more targeted surgical interventions in favor of 76 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 5: those most affected. 77 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: That's not easy for ruling politicians like Italian Premier Georgia 78 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 2: Maloney who promised her people they wouldn't be left alone 79 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,359 Speaker 2: to face inflation, but she has to balance that with 80 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 2: keeping the country's fragile finances in check. The opposition has 81 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: blasted her for canceling a form of citizens income to 82 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: save money, and the government is now setting other solutions 83 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: like lower taxes on salaries to help increase purchasing power. 84 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 2: In France, retailers have agreed to prolong efforts to charge 85 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: the lowest possible amount for some essential food items. The 86 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 2: three month campaign was announced in early March and set 87 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 2: to end on June fifteenth, until the Finance ministry recently 88 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 2: announced an extension. Supermarket chains are expected to take a 89 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 2: hit to their margins amounting to several hundred million euros, 90 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 2: and the European Central Bank has increasingly highlighted the role 91 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 2: of corporate profits in the Eurozone's inflation crisis. Here's French 92 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 2: President Emmanuel Macron talking about the deal with retailers at 93 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 2: the Paris Agriculture Fair earlier this year. 94 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 6: Our farmers are paying more for energy, more to produce, 95 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 6: and they need to maintain their revenue. They have revenues 96 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 6: that are still very weak, so they're not the ones 97 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 6: who need to make an effort to reduce food prices. 98 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 6: Our food industries have made considerable efforts these last few years, 99 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 6: many small businesses and them. It is our distributors who 100 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 6: have to make an effort now. 101 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has announced several aid packages 102 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 2: to help households cope with inflation ever since Russia's invasion 103 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 2: of Ukraine last year. He decided to cut the so 104 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 2: called value added tacks on a basket of essentials like 105 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: bread and olive oil. But Spaniards are still paying more 106 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 2: to make their prize pay addish, especially after devastating droughts 107 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 2: last year wrecked crops like olives and rice. Olive oil, 108 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: which Spain is the world's largest producer of, costs thirty 109 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 2: two percent more in March compared to a year ago, 110 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: and rice is an extra twenty two percent. But back 111 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 2: in the valley of the salea river restaurant owner Folgier 112 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: tries to make the best of it. 113 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 3: It won't keep going up. Some prices will go down 114 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 3: at some point. A lot depends on global wheat prices 115 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 3: and costs of animal foods. Meanwhile, you just have to 116 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 3: go locally. That's what I do. Go directly to the farmers, which, 117 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 3: as me, spent maybe twenty percent less that Arrows has 118 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 3: to keep prices table and have the same profit, emmins 119 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: clients can keep going to the restaurant. 120 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News in Rome. I'm Alisandro Miyacchu. 121 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,239 Speaker 1: So not quite as good for your heart as olive oil, 122 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: but an equally potemic part of Britain's national cuisine is 123 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: the traditional English breakfast, So we thought we should monitor 124 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: what was happening to that before we go on to 125 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: discuss the broader global forces at work in these rising 126 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: food prices in Europe. And Bloomberg Reporter Arena Angel has 127 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: more on that arena. Thank you very much for telling 128 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: us about the Bloomberg Breakfast Index. I guess you should 129 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: first tell us what exactly if you were eating and English, 130 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: traditionally English breakfast, what would you be in for? 131 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 7: Let's see, so I think it's sausages, bacon, eggs, bread, butter, tomatoes. 132 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: Mushrooms, fried bread as well, fried bread, yeah, yes, but 133 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: taste and probably tea. Okay, So what if we found 134 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: out what is the English Breakfast Index telling us at 135 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: the moment? 136 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 7: So you know, the English Breakfast Index sort of puts 137 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 7: inflation in the frying pan. So we, as you mentioned, 138 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 7: each month, we use it to track the cost of 139 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 7: the ten products or the product you mentioned plus coffee 140 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 7: in case. I mean I personally prefer coffee over tea, 141 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 7: and we use data from the UK Office for National Statistics. 142 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 7: So the latest Breakfast Index showed that the average cost 143 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 7: of ingredients increased almost twenty three percent from last year, 144 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 7: and it's the sharpest jump since we started tracking the numbers. 145 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 7: In June, eggs, bread and milk saw the biggest price. Right, 146 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,359 Speaker 7: So Stephanie, if you and I go to the supermarket, 147 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 7: we're going to pay around thirty five pounds fifty for 148 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 7: all the ten products to make a full fry up, 149 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,359 Speaker 7: which is almost six pounds more than last March. 150 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: Thirty five pounds. I mean, I guess it depends on 151 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: what the exchange rate is doing, but that's you know, 152 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: at least forty five dollars. And of course that's not 153 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: just for one person. I guess you'd be buying slightly more, 154 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: would probably be for a few people, but that's yeah. 155 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 7: Exactly, Yeah, yeah, that is a lot of money. That's 156 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 7: as you mentioned, Yeah, that's using the product sizes that 157 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 7: the os provides provides a dozen eggs or a pint 158 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 7: of milk, but it's it's a lot of money for 159 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 7: a typical family. 160 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: And how does that compare to some of these other 161 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: sort of classic meals around the world that we've been 162 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 1: talking about. 163 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 7: Well, national dishes are becoming a luxury everywhere around the world, 164 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 7: sort of bloomberg. We saw it at the in South Africa. 165 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 7: The cost of making a traditional barbecue, which sounds delicious 166 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 7: by the way, with ingredients like beef, carrots, onions and corn. 167 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 7: So the price for that increased twenty percent, mainly driven 168 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 7: by fresh products like pepper and tomatoes. Back in Europe, 169 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 7: well you know, surging olive oil prices are behind the 170 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 7: jump in Spain SPAIA index and they are making pizza 171 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 7: malgaita more expensive in Italy. In France also the price 172 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 7: of preparing cocovaine ROAs by fifteen percent because of more 173 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 7: expensive carrots and chicken. 174 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: So frice getting out of the out of reach in 175 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 1: South Africa would definitely strike fear into the hearts. And 176 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: when those numbers came out, I was in the UK 177 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 1: and there was a sort of collective sigh because of 178 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: course we've been expecting inflation to slow down, and we've 179 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: seen in large parts of Europe inflation coming down quite sharply, 180 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: the headline inflation rate. Why are food prices still rising 181 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: in the UK. 182 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a that's a great question, and that's all 183 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 7: the facts as you mentioned this, and plus the fact 184 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 7: that global commodity prices have also been declining for a 185 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 7: while now. So part of the explanation could be that 186 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 7: big food producers in the UK are still tied to 187 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 7: long term commodity contracts that they signed back when prices 188 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 7: were sky high, so we have to wait for them 189 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 7: to renew these contracts until we see the price falls. 190 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 7: To feed through and manufacturers, it looks like they keep 191 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 7: passing on costs through the supply chain to consumers to 192 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 7: protect their margins. However, there are some science inflation is 193 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 7: easy in some categories. Some supermarkets including Tesco, as the Sainsbury, Aal, 194 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 7: the Little Orcado all lower their price of milk. Tesco 195 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 7: is also seeing some deflation for oils and grains and 196 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 7: that could mean lower prices for big goods like croissants 197 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 7: and all that. 198 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 1: So do looking down the road if we decide to 199 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: pass on the English Breakfast right now because it's too expensive. 200 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: Is there any chance it's going to come back into 201 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: reach in the next few months. 202 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 7: The good news is even now, on a monthly basis, 203 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 7: inflation in the Breakfast index looks like it's looked like, 204 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 7: I mean, it's might be already slowing. The price of eggs, 205 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 7: mushrooms and tea all fell in March actually from last month, 206 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 7: and the butter, milk and bread were unchanged. And we're 207 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 7: also entering the UK growing season and that might also 208 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 7: slow down food inflation. However, if you ask analysts, they 209 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 7: always say that absolute pricing rarely falls, so when we 210 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,119 Speaker 7: finally see inflation slowing down, we might get more promotional 211 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 7: discounts rather than cheaper full price tags. So this all 212 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 7: means that the English Breakfast is probably going to stay 213 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 7: indulgent in every sense of the word. 214 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: Well exactly, it's pretty indulgent. Maybe it's better, maybe for 215 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: the better for the British heart if we have fear 216 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: of them, I do. I had heard quite a lot 217 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: of discussion around the fact that the structure of Britain's 218 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: supermarkets was actually means that when prices are low, more 219 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: of that is passed on to the consumer. People often say, 220 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: you know, they go into the supermarkets in general, and 221 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:02,319 Speaker 1: more expensive in continental Europe. But the cost of that, 222 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: the cost of sort of squeezing the last penny out 223 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: of suppliers, is that times like this you just get shortages. 224 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: I guess the final question, Arena, can we blame brexit 225 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: for this soaring cost of the English breakfast? 226 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 7: I mean, one role that Brexit good play is that 227 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 7: there's labor shortages in the food industry more broadly, and 228 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 7: we've been speaking to lots of businesses who mentioned brexitters 229 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 7: their top problem that it can't find enough workers. 230 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: Well, I suspect this is going to continue to be 231 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: a debate, but Arena Angiel, thank you so much. 232 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 7: Thank you. 233 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: So we're going to broaden this out. We've heard about 234 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: a lot of hard pressed European consumers in this episode, 235 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: and we're going to carry on worrying about them, but 236 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: we're also going to think about the rest of the 237 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: world and the potential implications of all these ups and 238 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: downs of food prices. In the last year. With Joe Glaubert, 239 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 1: who is a senior research fellow at the National Food 240 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: Policy Research Institute, he also used to be Chief Economist 241 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: of the US Department of Agriculture. Joe, thank you very 242 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: much for coming on Stephanomics. I'm always conscious when I 243 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: am hearing about the soaring prices for things like wheat 244 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: or olive oil that you know, as an economist, demand 245 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: and supply, I mean, high prices are also a way 246 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: of deciding who gets none. It's a rationing mechanism when 247 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: there's a shortage of something. You know, who has got 248 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: much less food over the last year, and how bad 249 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: has it been relative to the expectations we might have 250 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: had when a year ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. 251 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 8: You know, I think actually the world's adjusted pretty well 252 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 8: to the invasion. You know, no question, the Black Sea 253 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 8: was a big producer of wheat and maize and f 254 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 8: oils like sunflower oil, and once particularly the a few 255 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 8: months after the war started, we saw this big rise 256 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 8: in prices. And you know, but by about June or 257 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 8: so of the of last year, prices had started to 258 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 8: come down again, and in fact, by about the fall 259 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 8: they were back to pre war levels. That hasn't been 260 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 8: the case for food price inflation. And I think that's 261 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 8: a very important distinction to make between commodity prices and 262 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 8: actually retail food prices, which is, you know what consumers 263 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 8: are facing. And then the develop developed economies like the 264 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 8: UK or the US or member states of the European Union, 265 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 8: the commodity value is such a small share of the 266 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 8: overall food costs, right So if you go to look 267 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 8: at a loaf of bread, you know that's five to 268 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 8: ten percent of that value of bread that you're purchasing 269 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 8: in a grocery store is actually the price of whek. 270 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 8: So we can go up a lot, but the price 271 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 8: of bread not so much. But by the same token, 272 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 8: all of those other post farm gate costs get built 273 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 8: into the price of food. So what we're seeing in 274 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 8: a lot of economies right now is overall very very 275 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 8: high rates of inflation. So that's affecting energy prices, it's 276 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 8: affecting processing costs, it's affecting wage rates. All of these 277 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 8: things have built into very high food prices. That's one. 278 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 8: Some of that is less the case in developing countries 279 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 8: where maybe that post farmgate share of the overall food 280 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 8: cost is smaller that the price of the underlying commodity 281 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 8: means more. But there unfortunately those countries haven't seen quite 282 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 8: the price decline as we've seen on global markets. Why 283 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 8: because the dollar has remained so high and is actually 284 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 8: appreciated against some of those commodities. So if you go 285 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 8: to say Egypt, and look at the price of wheat 286 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 8: that you know is used bread as a huge staple 287 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 8: in a country like Egypt, those prices have increased substantially, 288 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 8: and you know, right after the war began, But they 289 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 8: haven't declined nearly as much as they have on global markets. 290 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 8: Why because the Egyptian pound has has lost value relative 291 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 8: to the dollar, and because commodities are most commodities are 292 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 8: denominated in dollars, that means in local currency, so those 293 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 8: prices haven't fallen nearly as much. 294 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: You've actually highlighted a good point. I mean, we have 295 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: looked at some of the causes of Eurozone inflation over 296 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: the last year, the increase in the inflation rate, and interestingly, 297 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: our economists found that a big chunk of the increase, 298 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: not just in the food sector, but across the board 299 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: was from European companies expanding their profit margining margins, which 300 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: I guess some people would call price gouging. So there's 301 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 1: definitely a lot of things going into that higher price 302 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: in the shop in the shops. But you know, we 303 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: tend to blame one way or another the Ukraine invasion 304 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:05,199 Speaker 1: by Russia with these issues. But I feel like I 305 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: was hearing about serious problems with fertilizer prices and some 306 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: commodity markets long before Russia's invasion. 307 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 3: Is that right? 308 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 8: Yeah? No, absolutely, And if you were to look at 309 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 8: commodity prices generally, and that's certainly the case for wheat, 310 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 8: in maize, in vegetable oils, they were all rising prior 311 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 8: to the invasion. I mean, this was the big concern, 312 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 8: even prior to Russia invadeing Ukraine, as we were looking 313 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 8: back in January twenty twenty two at very tight global 314 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 8: stocks and we're looking at fairly high prices now. The 315 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 8: expectation was that farmers would respond and by the end 316 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 8: of the year we would have rebuilding the stocks that 317 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 8: didn't happen because of the war, And I think that 318 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,439 Speaker 8: is the war has had definitely an impact there. But 319 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 8: when we talked about those commodity prices down to pre 320 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 8: invasion level, they are still running very much above levels 321 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 8: of say two years ago or back to twenty twenty. 322 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:12,880 Speaker 8: Even in the case of energy prices or fertilizer prices. 323 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 8: They're down eighty percent from there from the peaks that 324 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 8: we saw in the spring of twenty twenty two, but 325 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 8: still one hundred percent above where they were in January 326 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 8: compared to January twenty twenty. So, yes, prices are high. 327 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,400 Speaker 8: They have come down a lot, but they're still high 328 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 8: relative to historical levels. 329 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 1: And I guess when we think about higher energy prices, 330 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: we often forget that that feeds that has also affected 331 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: fertilizer prices, which then affects future crops of countries years 332 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: into the future. 333 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 8: Right, And don't forget that energy costs are very much 334 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:51,239 Speaker 8: embodied in food. Food costs ultimately, I mean transportation, all 335 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 8: the transformation, depending on and even at the farm level, 336 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 8: some crops are very very energy intensive, you say, particularly 337 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 8: when you factor in fertilizer and other products. 338 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: COVID was another sort of force on making us think 339 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: about this that people realized when we had these supply 340 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: chain issues globally, that dependence on just one or two 341 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 1: suppliers for anything, whether it's you know, widgets or grain, 342 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 1: is not necessarily a healthy thing. Do you think do 343 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: you see efforts by countries by agricultural businesses to broaden 344 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: their sources of supply. Is that one lesson that comes 345 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: out of all of these experiences COVID, Ukraine invasion and 346 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: other things. 347 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 8: Yeah, I know, there's no question. I think the market 348 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 8: actually has responded pretty well, particularly bulk trade. Weak corned 349 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 8: countries were able to source alternative sources for their products. 350 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 8: There wasn't a case where we just ran out of wheat. 351 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 8: People were able to find wheat around the world. I 352 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 8: think the longer run, as we look forward, I think 353 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 8: the real key is flexibility to be able to pivot 354 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 8: and seek alternative sources. I'm not sure that you necessarily 355 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 8: would diversify just for the sake of diversification. It's a 356 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 8: strategy and it's much like an insurance product. You have 357 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 8: to look at what the cost of diversification is. So 358 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 8: if I'm Egypt and I'm looking across the Mediterranean at 359 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 8: a very black sea area looking at very cheap source 360 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 8: of wheat, if I were to say, well, I'm not 361 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 8: going to import from them because I want to diversify 362 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 8: to a much more higher cost supplier, that's the cost 363 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 8: you have to pay. And so I think the if 364 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 8: you look at what Egypt was able to do by contrast, 365 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 8: is they were able to pivot import from India, import 366 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 8: from the EU, and so I think having that flexibility 367 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 8: is was really important. And that does mean having the 368 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 8: ability to tap alternative sources. So I'm not saying that 369 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 8: diversifications the wrong strategy. I'm just saying that you don't 370 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 8: diversify just for the sake of diversification, that you need 371 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 8: to be able to be flexible to pivot to other areas, 372 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 8: to find sources when there are disruptions, and the obvious 373 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 8: disruptions that we're seeing right now, and I think unfortunately 374 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 8: the long run disruptions because of the continued low prices 375 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 8: in Ukraine and we're seeing you know how that's affected 376 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 8: plannings in the fall last year, they are now affecting 377 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 8: supplies this year. The ongoing war, the fact that it's very, 378 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 8: very costly to ship product out of Ukraine right now, 379 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 8: all that has longer term significance for the region. 380 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: I guess the final question is whether any of this 381 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: has accelerated or changed the attitude to some of these 382 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 1: exciting technological break throughs that we hear about in other 383 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 1: parts of the economy, whether it's robotics or AI or 384 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 1: genetic engineering. Is there is the debate around deploying that 385 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: in agriculture and having a second or are we at 386 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: this point a third or a fourth green revolution. Has 387 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: that debate changed in the space of the last few years. 388 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 8: Well, I think two thousand and seven, eight, twenty ten, 389 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 8: eleven they were real wake up calls because we're under 390 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 8: invested in agricultural productivity for so many years. That's and 391 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 8: now seeing this over the last year, particularly with starting 392 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 8: actually with COVID and now seeing the problems in the 393 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 8: Black Sea. Yes, you're right. I think that there's increasing 394 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,640 Speaker 8: calls now to increase productivity in areas like sub Saharan Africa, 395 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 8: areas where we see big gaps between yield potential and 396 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 8: actual potential and then our actual production. And then the 397 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 8: other issue is fertilizer. You know, unlike where you know, 398 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 8: wheat has grown in a lot of areas around the world, 399 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 8: you know, something like potash, you're talking about just a 400 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 8: handful of countries that are major producers. And so I think, 401 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 8: you know, interest in things like green fertilizers and other 402 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 8: sorts of technologies which are still a ways off. I 403 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 8: think there's renewed interest in putting more research dollars into 404 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 8: that area to again, in this case, you know, look 405 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 8: at more sustainable ways of increasing improving productivity. 406 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 1: So that's Deephonomics for you folks. We have one week 407 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 1: we had grand financiers in la and the next week 408 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 1: we're talking about potash. Joe Glaba, thank you so much 409 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 1: for helping us out with this. 410 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,880 Speaker 8: Glad I could be of help. 411 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 1: Well that's it for this food focused episode of Stephonomics. 412 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: We will be back next week. In the meantime, you 413 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 1: can get a lot more economic insight and news from 414 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal website or app. This episode was produced 415 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: by Mangus Henrikson, Yang Yang and Summer Sadi, with special 416 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: thanks to Alessandra Milaccio, Irina Angel and Joe Glauber. The 417 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: executive producer of Stephanomics is Molly Smith and the head 418 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcasts is Sage Bowmen.