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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud read.

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Speaker 2: Enough there were running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid

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Speaker 2: sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 2: shot with that shop with mind and buddy, and that's

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Speaker 2: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 4: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The wall. It's left too the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled bibus how old earth?

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Speaker 3: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Helloy one, Welcome back to Wonderful the Soccer Betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba, and

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Speaker 1: joining me in justin moment are my co hosts and colleagues,

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Speaker 1: my friends, and my betting role models Anthony Dbundo and

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Speaker 1: bj Cunningham. And together the three of us are going

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Speaker 1: to go on a little handicapping adventure through the upcoming

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Speaker 1: match week in the Premier League. We'll touch on Bundesliga,

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Speaker 1: La Liga, l Classico this weekend Lego Siria Ah. Then

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Speaker 1: we'll give out our three leg underdog parlay just north

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Speaker 1: of fifty to one this week and no it doesn't

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Speaker 1: include Sheffield United yet. Maybe maybe I could be convinced

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Speaker 1: and then our best bets in the Premier League four

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Speaker 1: this weekend. But before we do all that, a reminder

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Speaker 1: that wonder goal is presented by Bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 1: and Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes

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Speaker 1: that every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game,

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Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that are legendary

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Speaker 1: to the ones that fly under the radar. See for

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Speaker 1: yourself when you sign up today with Code Action, and

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Speaker 1: you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus

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Speaker 1: bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport,

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Speaker 1: whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: you must be twenty one or older, and you also

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Speaker 1: must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and Virginia. If you or somebody you know has gambling,

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Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, and wants help, please call one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and

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Speaker 1: Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms

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Speaker 1: and conditions apply. All right, we'll start this weekend in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League Anthony and BJ. Anthony's licking his wounds

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Speaker 1: from the Phillies exit in the Major League Baseball playoffs.

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Speaker 1: But what better way to make to lift your spirits

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Speaker 1: then a whole host is soccer to bet on and

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Speaker 1: a fun weekend here that the matches are all spread

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Speaker 1: out through the weekend. We got five on Sunday, four Saturday,

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Speaker 1: and one on Friday. But we'll start with the last

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Speaker 1: kickoff of the weekend eleven thirty am Eastern Time. Manchester

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Speaker 1: United hosting their man Cunian rivals, man City United plus

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Speaker 1: four to fifty at home. City traveling at minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty three in the draw is plus three hundred. Anthony

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Speaker 1: Cities coming off of a decent showing in the Champions

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Speaker 1: League they beat Brighton? Are they back on track? Do

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Speaker 1: they have value as a odds on favorite on the

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Speaker 1: road here?

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Speaker 2: I actually don't think so. I didn't think the game

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Speaker 2: against Brighton was all that good. Like they ended a

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Speaker 2: game with you know, point eight expected goals. It is

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Speaker 2: the third consecutive league match they've finished with less than

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Speaker 2: one expected goal. We don't even have XG data to

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Speaker 2: go back far enough to figure out the last time

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Speaker 2: that happened. The last time they had two straight matches

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Speaker 2: where they failed to create one expected goal. You have

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Speaker 2: to go all the way back to the Premier League

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Speaker 2: restart in twenty twenty, so it's been a while. And

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Speaker 2: those matches also were like end of season, season is

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Speaker 2: over kind of matches. So on one hand, yes, they

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Speaker 2: dominated young boys today, created over four expected goals, no

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Speaker 2: real concerns Doku in the lineup. I think makes them

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Speaker 2: better right now. But I think it is real that

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Speaker 2: City has struggled to consistently create shots, and it's been

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Speaker 2: the shots that have disappeared. Not necessarily you know the

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Speaker 2: XTU she's gone down as a result, of course that's

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Speaker 2: heavily correlated, but the shot totals have been kind of

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Speaker 2: alarmingly low. And so look, we've seen this before with

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Speaker 2: City where they go through these little lulls early in

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Speaker 2: the season maybe you know, first third, and we maybe

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Speaker 2: overconclude things about them based off of those stretches. But

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Speaker 2: the defense remains very elite, and at some point you

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Speaker 2: are what your XG and what your underlying data says

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Speaker 2: you are, and we have to stop. Not that our

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Speaker 2: podcast has ever really been one to do that, but

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Speaker 2: we should probably stop giving Men United the benefit of

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Speaker 2: the doubt here. I mean, if if Scott mcdonminy doesn't

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Speaker 2: score that late goal against Brentford, or if are not

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Speaker 2: it doesn't save that penalty on Tuesday against Copenhagen in

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Speaker 2: the Champions League in which they were pretty solidly outplayed

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Speaker 2: relatively even does still have a job? Yeah, Like I

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Speaker 2: think that's that's a real question. And should he still

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Speaker 2: have a job?

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Speaker 3: That's a good question.

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Speaker 2: I don't know because right now, you know, you look

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Speaker 2: at this team. They're tenth in next G four, they're

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Speaker 2: eleventh in x G against. If you even take out

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Speaker 2: you know, some of the variants from the numbers, you

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Speaker 2: take out some of the extreme stuff. If you just

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Speaker 2: say eleven on eleven in close games there are two

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Speaker 2: goals within two goals on either side, you take out penalties,

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Speaker 2: they are twelfth and expected goals for and ninth and

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Speaker 2: expected goals against. And look, they've played a decent schedule,

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Speaker 2: but it's not like they've run the entire top of

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Speaker 2: the league. They haven't played Newcastle, haven't played Liverpool, haven't

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Speaker 2: played City, so they haven't played you know what, you

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Speaker 2: could argue is the three best teams in the league.

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Speaker 2: So like, these numbers are not like inflated. I mean

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Speaker 2: they where's the convincing performance pull up their entire season.

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Speaker 2: There's never been one, not even one where you could

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Speaker 2: be like, well, that was kind of good. The best

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Speaker 2: performance of the season by expected goals was a game

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Speaker 2: they were down two nil inside five minutes, and so

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Speaker 2: that kind of dramatically skews the single game XG that

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Speaker 2: was against Forrest. They came back to win three to two,

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Speaker 2: scored late. You know, they go to Burnley and get

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Speaker 2: outplayed there, even with Sheffield, even with Brentford, even with Pallace,

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Speaker 2: even with Copenhagen outplayed by Galatasarai. Like, this is just

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Speaker 2: not a team worth my money right now at this number,

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Speaker 2: what would c be lying at Brentford? Probably like, because

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Speaker 2: I have United ahead of Brentford and I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: that I.

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Speaker 4: Should honest one sixty minus one seventy five somewhere in

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Speaker 4: that area, and.

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Speaker 2: That's higher than it is here. So I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: I think that this United team is any good and

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Speaker 2: so really I'm not going to bet them. I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to bet them. This is crazy. I mean they

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Speaker 2: have not had a good performance all year. I think

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Speaker 2: we were all in agreement on that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, yeah, I know, it's it's you know,

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Speaker 4: the cop andag match during the champions I think it

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Speaker 4: was very evident of what the actual problem is with

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Speaker 4: Manchester United is ten Hog doesn't know what he wants

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Speaker 4: to do tactically. So again, what happened against Copenhagen a

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Speaker 4: lot is he switched the build up shape to a

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Speaker 4: three to one six, which you know, obviously you're playing

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Speaker 4: one of the minno sides, you're trying to overload the

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Speaker 4: last line of defense. But really what he was trying

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Speaker 4: to do was just get the ball up to the

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Speaker 4: front line. He wasn't trying to connect anything. But what's

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Speaker 4: been happening is is teams like Crystal Palace and Sheffield

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Speaker 4: United realize that United is terrible in build up play

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Speaker 4: because they don't have Losandra Martinez, they don't have Luke Shaw,

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Speaker 4: they don't have anybody on the back line who can

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Speaker 4: really build out back. So they're just sitting off and

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Speaker 4: they're just saying, okay, well, we know you're just gonna

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Speaker 4: send long balls up, so we're just gonna try to

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Speaker 4: win those and We're just gonna dare you to try

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Speaker 4: to break us down, and they can't do it because

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Speaker 4: that right now, especially against Copenhagen, what happens time and

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Speaker 4: time again is Scott mctomeny is not somebody who drops

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Speaker 4: him the last line of defense, grabs the ball and

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Speaker 4: connects the play between the mid field in the first line.

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Speaker 4: He's not that neither is quite frankly, there was Eric

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Speaker 4: center bent. Fernandz was trying to come back and do it,

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Speaker 4: but that's just not his role. So there were often

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Speaker 4: times where the billup shape became a three zero seven

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Speaker 4: and there was just nobody in the middle of the

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Speaker 4: pitch that connect the ball to So you know they're

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Speaker 4: gonna have to do what they did when they beat

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Speaker 4: City last year at Old Trafford, which is just stay

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Speaker 4: incredibly compact defensively, don't even try and press City, and

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Speaker 4: just make sure that nothing goes through the middle, and

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Speaker 4: just hope that Pep doesn't become obsessed with you know,

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Speaker 4: A hope that he excuse me, I hope that he

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Speaker 4: does become obsessed with playing through the middle. But now

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Speaker 4: the fact that City does have somebody like Doku who

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Speaker 4: can get in a one on one situations. I think

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Speaker 4: he'll City try to see City try to overload the

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Speaker 4: middle of the pitch. They can isolate Doku and Grealish

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Speaker 4: now that he's healthy. But City, I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: it's pretty evident that they are just way worse without

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Speaker 4: Kevin de Bruyne. I have a trivia question for you guys.

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Speaker 4: So last year, Kevin de Bruyna averaged three and a

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Speaker 4: half passes in the penalty area per ninety minutes. This season,

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Speaker 4: two guys lead City through nine matches with just twelve

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Speaker 4: passes into the penalty area. One of them is Bernardo Silva.

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Speaker 4: Can you name the other one?

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Speaker 2: No, I don't think Stones's played enough to be on

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Speaker 2: that list, right, So uh Cavardi ol.

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Speaker 4: Kyle Walker twelve from the right from right back position.

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Speaker 4: So that's kind of where City is at. They do

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Speaker 4: not have that creative guy in the middle of the pitch.

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Speaker 4: I thought it would have been like somebody like Llian

185
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Speaker 4: Alvarez or Phil Foden, or maybe even Rodery for that matter,

186
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Speaker 4: because he's getting forward more. But that just hasn't been

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Speaker 4: the case. So City is struggling to get the ball

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Speaker 4: inside the box. I mean, they have the lowest final

189
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Speaker 4: third of box entry converged rate just around twenty percent

190
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Speaker 4: of the time they get the ball into the final third,

191
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Speaker 4: they're getting into the penalty area.

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Speaker 3: That is kind of concerning.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at through some of their performances,

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Speaker 4: especially go look at the ones against Nottingham Forest and Fulham.

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Speaker 4: I mean they took a total of fourteen shots combined

196
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Speaker 4: in those two matches. Like, that's really concerning if you

197
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Speaker 4: can't outplay and really dominate those teams and get a

198
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Speaker 4: lot of chances.

199
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Speaker 3: So I am passing on this match.

200
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Speaker 4: I want, I do believe City is a tattle were valued,

201
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,240
Speaker 4: but there is no way I want to touch this

202
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Speaker 4: United team with all the injuries.

203
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Speaker 3: That they have right now and how bad they've been.

204
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Speaker 4: So it sucks to sit out the biggest match of

205
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Speaker 4: the weekend, but I just don't think there's really any

206
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Speaker 4: value anywhere in this match.

207
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Speaker 1: I actually think City makes a decent parlay piece here.

208
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Speaker 1: There's a couple other favorites that on the slate that

209
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,160
Speaker 1: I think that you could pair them with. I don't

210
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Speaker 1: see how, and I know I've said that I've been

211
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Speaker 1: I would probably look to play United when they're playing

212
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Speaker 1: the other top six teams speaking of like the projected

213
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Speaker 1: top six before the season according to the odds, But

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Speaker 1: like Anthony said, like they haven't shown to be in

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Speaker 1: that conversation at all. So it's not even like if

216
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Speaker 1: you put there, if you put I think the point

217
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Speaker 1: you made about Brentford right, like if you took their

218
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 1: statistical portfolio United and you just slapped aston Villa's name

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Speaker 1: on top of it, on top of that portfolio, and

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Speaker 1: what would you like, what would they make? What would

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Speaker 1: market make City here much bigger price? So I don't know, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it'd be much bigger. Yeah, So I think that I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I think it would be one way traffic.

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Speaker 1: I don't We're talking about City like as they're struggling,

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Speaker 1: and we had this conversation last year. It's a little different.

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Speaker 1: Obviously there's some nuance with Kevin de Bruyna, but they're

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Speaker 1: in second place in the league, playing poorly by their standards.

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Speaker 1: So when they do click at a gear, it's it'll be

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Speaker 1: scary if they click in a gear, but I'd say

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Speaker 1: it's more likely than not. So I think City actually

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Speaker 1: as a as a parlay piecer are interesting. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to lay a spread with them just because I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they have the like Anthony and BJ

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Speaker 1: you guys have been saying like that, the hacking numbers

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Speaker 1: aren't good enough to trust them to get separation on

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Speaker 1: a spread. But that's how it look to play this one.

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Speaker 2: If anything, Yeah, real quick, Aaron Wambasaka is questionable here.

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Speaker 2: He would be a big if they get him back.

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Speaker 2: That would help defensively because he's excellent and one on ones.

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Speaker 2: That's the key here because right now, Doku already has

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Speaker 2: twenty eight carries into the penalty are, which is third

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Speaker 2: in the Premier League in four and a half nineties.

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Speaker 2: That is only just seven behind Koulasowski, two behind Sterling.

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Speaker 2: He's averaging six six point two carries into the penalty

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Speaker 2: area per match, which is insane. And that is the

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Speaker 2: I think that is the solution. I don't think there's

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Speaker 2: a passing solution. I think it's just get the ball

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Speaker 2: of Doku and then he will bring it into the.

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Speaker 4: Overload to isolate get those guys in one on ones.

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Speaker 4: Let him invade the box.

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Speaker 1: United so United City, I would say, in terms of

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Speaker 1: just betting perspective, not all that thrilling, but the Friday

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Speaker 1: night Lights kickoff. Man, Oh my gosh, this one's gonna

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Speaker 1: be great. I can't wait for this one. Palace eight

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Speaker 1: plus three thirty three underdog hosting Tottenham Hot Spur top

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Speaker 1: of the table, Tottenham uh Spurs odds on minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five and the Joeys plus two seventy five. Spent

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Speaker 1: the entire summer trying to convince Anthony that this Spurs

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Speaker 1: team was on its way to big things. He didn't

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Speaker 1: believe it, and he still doesn't believe it. When when

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Speaker 1: some big stats accounts start, uh yeah, start saying that

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Speaker 1: Spurs her Spurs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: When when when Mark, when Mark's Stats tweets out a

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Speaker 4: couple graphics of how good Tottenham is, He'll buy in exactly.

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Speaker 1: He's waiting for it. If you can't enjoy your team

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Speaker 1: at the top of the table, what am I even doing?

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Speaker 1: Like I've been I've been waiting my entire life to

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Speaker 1: see Everden go on a run like this, and Antony

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Speaker 1: just talking about how Tottenham's a fraud in our in

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Speaker 1: our group chats. It's I know, we look at the

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Speaker 1: underlying data to make it for embtting decisions, but what

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Speaker 1: counts in terms of being a fan. Antony is the

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Speaker 1: actual results, so you can enjoy the results.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Monday was beautiful. I had the under I'm

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Speaker 2: a Spurs fan. We won, we went under, we took

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Speaker 2: some and Kane Madison off and didn't do anything for

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Speaker 2: the last twenty minutes. I mean it was it was perfect.

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Speaker 1: I like Palafana and I think this is a great

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Speaker 1: spot to finally catch Spurs. Palace at plus three thirty

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Speaker 1: three at home, find bigger numbers out there. There's a

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Speaker 1: couple of things right. One, we know that Sellhurst Park

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Speaker 1: is a legitimate home field advantage. Palace have been relatively

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Speaker 1: impressive this season, could when you consider the turnover they've had,

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Speaker 1: the fact that the injuries they've had. They do have

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Speaker 1: the best manager in the world in their dugouts, so

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Speaker 1: maybe that helps things. But defensively, still a sound team,

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Speaker 1: still doing Crystal Palace things. The forum is fine. I think.

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Speaker 1: I know they just got pasted by Newcastle, but they're

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Speaker 1: running rampant right now. And a win, a drawing, a

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Speaker 1: loss in a three game stretch against United Forest and

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Speaker 1: United Forest and Fulham or excuse me, yeah, United Forest

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Speaker 1: and Newcastle is not terrible for Palace either, So I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I think that we've been talking about how

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Speaker 1: Tottenham is eventually going to be priced out here, and

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Speaker 1: I think this is the spot. I think this Palace

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Speaker 1: team always punches up well, and especially against teams that

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Speaker 1: want to just go and be all action and Palace

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Speaker 1: can just sit back, they can have some tea and

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Speaker 1: some sandwiches. Well, Tottenham's moving the ball around and then

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Speaker 1: go catch them BJ.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So when I originally sat down to look to this slate,

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Speaker 4: I said, yes, I do like Palace, and then I

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Speaker 4: went back and to watch their match against the first

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Speaker 4: half against Newcastle. They were really bad, like really bad

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Speaker 4: trying to defend in that little block. And I know

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Speaker 4: Newcast is great and everything like that, but I worry

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Speaker 4: to do a slow burn too. I agree, and I

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Speaker 4: agree to a certain extent, and the Palace really needs

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Speaker 4: to because honestly, I thought that Fulham wasn't that terrible

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Speaker 4: in their low block for large stretches of the match

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Speaker 4: against Totenham. Really what happened is that they made two

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Speaker 4: really dumb mistakes trying to build out of the back,

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Speaker 4: and Toddenham punished him for it, and exactly he'll just

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Speaker 4: send the ball along. But the problem I have here

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Speaker 4: with Crystal Palace, Michael is if they fall behind. That's

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Speaker 4: I think it's all she wrote because without as they,

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Speaker 4: without as they right now they are lacking any type

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Speaker 4: of creative aspect going forward in attack. So yeah, I

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Speaker 4: mean they're they're they're getting the ball on average into

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Speaker 4: the final third forty times and only turning that into

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Speaker 4: ten box entries. That's it's very very clear that they

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Speaker 4: have nobody who can really progress the ball forward. And

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Speaker 4: really what what I noticed against Fulham. Obviously this has

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Speaker 4: been happening quite a bit, but Tottenham system is obviously

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Speaker 4: very fluid. Since Fulham was playing very compact Udogi and

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Speaker 4: Pedro Poroaks just constantly kept inverting and trying to get

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Speaker 4: forward an attack which left a ton of space out

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Speaker 4: wide if teams wanted to exploit it. Fulham was playing

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Speaker 4: two compacts, they didn't really have a chance to exploit that.

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Speaker 4: If Palace had as an Elisa in this match and

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Speaker 4: they could exploit those wide areas, I would be right

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Speaker 4: here and be like, yes, that's how Palace wins this match.

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Speaker 4: But with Mateta, I mean Edward will be up top

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Speaker 4: but with Mateta and Jordanaiu, I just don't see how

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Speaker 4: Palace really threatens them in attack. So it's really hard

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Speaker 4: for me to get behind Palace plus a half. But

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Speaker 4: if you're gonna bet this match, Palace is the right

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Speaker 4: side because Tottenham is attad inflated on the road here,

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Speaker 4: So I'm passing unfortunately Monday Friday like this is.

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Speaker 3: I know, I know it's injury.

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Speaker 2: Injury concern starting to pop up a little bit here

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Speaker 2: for Tomorra as well, and.

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Speaker 4: There definitely is, But I just I don't see it

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Speaker 4: right now with Palace. I mean, just the way they

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Speaker 4: got destroyed by Newcastle, I mean the same thing can

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Speaker 4: happen here against Tottenham.

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Speaker 2: Sure, kid, it's only one match. Yeah, here's what I'll say. Look,

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Speaker 2: I get the Tottenham or top of the league, and

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Speaker 2: I get it. We're playing great, we have we get

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Speaker 2: to lose under Pasta Coglo in the league. But like

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Speaker 2: they've played a very easy schedule where they have not

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Speaker 2: you know, the only the toughest match of the season,

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Speaker 2: at least the toughest opponent they've played at Arsenal's a

356
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Speaker 2: little tougher than home to Liverpool, but they get up

357
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Speaker 2: a man up two men for nine for the majority

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Speaker 2: of the ninety minutes. The they've run really well and

359
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Speaker 2: expected goals allowed compared to actual goals allowed, and they

360
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Speaker 2: have not. You know, they scored late, a bunch of

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Speaker 2: a bunch of late goals to steal extra points and like,

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Speaker 2: that's fine, and that's cool and as a fan I

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Speaker 2: appreciate that, But as a better it's like, how sustainable

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Speaker 2: was this Tottenham? You know, what does the market think

365
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Speaker 2: of Tottenham? Well, they played Chelsea in a week and

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Speaker 2: a half. We're gonna talk about that game next week.

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Speaker 2: They are barely favored at home. What and then that

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Speaker 2: kind of gets to the point, right, Tottenham is plus

369
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Speaker 2: one twenty in that game at home against Chelsea. Chelsea's

370
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Speaker 2: plus two to ten. I thought we were going to

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Speaker 2: get like an all time Chelsea plus a half winner

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Speaker 2: draw spot on the road. The market does not believe

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Speaker 2: in Spurs right now, even after upgrading them, because if

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Speaker 2: you remember, one of the first few games of the season,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham went to Bournemouth and then they went to Burnley

376
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Speaker 2: and back to back weeks and they were minus one

377
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Speaker 2: ten against teams that are teetering on relegation. Now they're

378
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen against a team who is nowhere near relegation,

379
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Speaker 2: who is a pretty solid mid table defensive side overall.

380
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,679
Speaker 2: So I think that you're finally getting a little bit

381
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Speaker 2: of attacks on Spurs, but the market still isn't that

382
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Speaker 2: much of a believer in them. The market still thinks

383
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Speaker 2: that they're not a top four team, and quite frankly

384
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Speaker 2: I agree. I think there are very clearly on paper

385
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Speaker 2: four teams better than Tottenham at this point in this season.

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Speaker 2: The question is, you know, can they keep out running

387
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 2: this Sar and Udoghi are questionable for this match now,

388
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 2: neither are particularly serious injuries, but drop off to their

389
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: backups I think with with Hoybier and not you know,

390
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 2: getting forward like Sarda's with Basuma coming back from suspension,

391
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: it's a little bit more defensive if they have to

392
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Speaker 2: play the Basuma Hoybier double pivot. Uh, the doggy drop

393
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 2: off to the backup is significant. He's playing at an elite,

394
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 2: elite level. He's been probably the most underrated player this season.

395
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Speaker 2: So there are reasons to love what Tottenham is doing,

396
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 2: but this is like near the peak of the market

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Speaker 2: on them. I think on the road here as a favorite.

398
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Speaker 2: So I cannot believe we're not going to get a

399
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: better number to fade them next week against Chelsea.

400
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 1: Well maybe the Pace Palace and but I don't think so.

401
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot for Palace.

402
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 4: And maybe just maybe the next match we're going to

403
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 4: talk about will go one way and then we can

404
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 4: get Chelsea had a good number.

405
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Speaker 2: Anthony, Yeah, I mean a essay is so important, and

406
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Speaker 2: we talked about this before the season. We were all like,

407
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Speaker 2: where's Palace going to get goals and chances from? And

408
00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 2: then as they just like Pops and we're like, oh,

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Speaker 2: as a makes sense. We could have seen that coming.

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Speaker 2: And then now he's out. So yeah, it's in the

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Speaker 2: midfield pairing against Will They Yeah, you're not getting a

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Speaker 2: lot of forward passing out of Will Hughes. They got

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Speaker 2: three shots from Jordan Iyu last week, which is a

414
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Speaker 2: lot for him. They got no athleticism from Matata from like,

415
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: you know, lateral quickness at all. So it's tough to

416
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 2: envision it. But Spurs on the road is a road

417
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 2: favorite at Palace has traditionally not gone well.

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Speaker 1: Will Hughes in the Palace red and white kit with

419
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: the black boots and the blonde hair just one of

420
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 1: the best looks in all of soccer. Dumb. All right,

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00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: let's talk about that game Bjay alluded to. That's Chelsea

422
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: at home as a big favorite minus one sixty three

423
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: hosting Brentford plus four hundred and the draw is plus

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00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: three twenty. Some bigger numbers on Brentford out there as well.

425
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Speaker 1: And no shock here. I think Fees are worth a

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Speaker 1: bet going up against a Chelsea team that maybe they've stabilized. Maybe,

427
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 1: but when you're this big a favorite like you gotta

428
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,239
Speaker 1: trust this team to be able to score. M hm,

429
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: I don't know if you do, you trust them to score?

430
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Speaker 3: No?

431
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 4: Here's Here's so Chelsea's had a couple of good results lately.

432
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 4: They obviously they beat Fulham, they beat Burnley pretty handily,

433
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 4: and then they got the draw against Arsenal.

434
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 3: But if you really.

435
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: Think about how those chances came in the matches, you know,

436
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 4: the Fulham the second goal against Fulham came off of

437
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 4: a you know, basically kind of a deflection. Burnley is

438
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 4: a high pressing team, so they left a lot of

439
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 4: open space for Chelsea who pretty much destroyed them.

440
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 3: And then against Arsenal.

441
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 4: They got a goal off a penalty and Muderick tries

442
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: a cross and it just goes in the back of

443
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 4: the net and that's how they scored. And really the

444
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 4: only other chances they can created in it were mistakes

445
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 4: when Arsenal was trying to build out of the back.

446
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 4: Other than that, they really didn't do much for the

447
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 4: entire match. What has been happening with them is similar.

448
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:15,239
Speaker 4: They similar to Manchester United. They are Poachtino wants a

449
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 4: fluid three to one six build up. He wants to

450
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 4: overload the last line of defense. He wants to get

451
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 4: overload the cumptral parts of the pitch. He wants to

452
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 4: get Sterling and Mudriick isolated in one v one situations.

453
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 4: That's all well and good, but it's all It gets

454
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 4: very disjointed once we get to the final third, and

455
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 4: that is where Chelsea has been struggling. You know, Cole

456
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 4: Palmer has has popped and been better as of late,

457
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 4: but again, some of the teams that they've been playing

458
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 4: are either not good in low blocks, they press high,

459
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 4: or they were playing off the ball for most of

460
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 4: the match, like against Arsenal. Now they're going to have

461
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 4: to try to break down one of the most solid

462
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 4: defensive units in the Premier League. So Brentford, I mean,

463
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: this is just perfect. This match sets up perfectly for them,

464
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 4: especially against teams who just rugg going in the final third.

465
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 4: They can play their five to three to two out

466
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 4: of possession, clog up the middle of the pitch, keep

467
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 4: teams out of the penalty air where they do so

468
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 4: much success against the Big Six. They did this very

469
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 4: very well against Chelsea last season. In both meetings combined

470
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 4: they won the xtual Bett two point four to two

471
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 4: point one. They did that holding under thirty five percent

472
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 4: possession in both matches. They are the Kings of low

473
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 4: possession wins. And now the worry here for Brentford is

474
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 4: you know, Rico Henry's obviously out for the season. Aaron

475
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 4: Hickey has a suspension, So there goes your two best

476
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 4: you know, wide defenders that will drop back in the

477
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 4: five to three to two to defend in those wide areas.

478
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 4: But again, a team like Chelsea, who is ninth in

479
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 4: expected goals twelfth and big scoring chances, playing one of

480
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 4: the easier schedules in the Premier League up until this point,

481
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 4: don't I don't really see a scenario where Chelsea's gonna

482
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 4: get margin here against a really, really good defensive team.

483
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 4: And if we just want to look at pure expecting

484
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 4: goal differential going back to the start of last season,

485
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 4: Brentford plus twelve point seven Chelsea plus four point too, Like,

486
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 4: there is really no reason why Chelsea should be this

487
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 4: big of a favorite unless the market is just baking

488
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 4: in well, which is what they've been doing a lot,

489
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 4: is baking in this talent level for Chelsea because they

490
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 4: spend so much money, because they have all these talented players,

491
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 4: but it's all just continues to be really disjointed and

492
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 4: not there's no cohesiveness, connectivity. It just feels like when

493
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 4: they play, so Brentford plus one minus one twenty seven

494
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 4: projected Chelsea at minus one sixteen. Really just don't see

495
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 4: a scenario why Chelsea or how Chelsea's going to get

496
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: margin here.

497
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and A mean, we say it all the time

498
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: when we talk about Brentford. It's like they're just a

499
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: bear to deal with for these upper echelon clubs, and

500
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: I expect that to continue here. The underlying data is

501
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: just Brentford has two wins on the season. They've been

502
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: pretty poor in a couple of matches, and even with

503
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: those performances, the data is between these two teams like

504
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 1: they're expected go differential is almost neglible. And Brentford played

505
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,959
Speaker 1: a relatively tough schedule, right They played Spurs already, they

506
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: played Newcastle, they played Arsenal, played Everton, played United, Like,

507
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: I don't know this. This Brentford team is is just

508
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: solid again, Anthony, Yeah, underrated.

509
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 2: I think we all missed it last week at home

510
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 2: against Burnley. I thought we all probably should have laid

511
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 2: it there. You did, Yeah, I should have laid it then.

512
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: That was a mistake. But you know, yeah, they had

513
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 2: a bad run of form where they didn't win a

514
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: lot of matches, but like you said, the unin performances

515
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: in those matches were totally fine. They had what I

516
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 2: thought was one really bad game against Everton. Otherwise I

517
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: thought it was pretty typical Brentford, like they were, you know,

518
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: struggled as a favorite, trying to get margin from from

519
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 2: Forrest and Bournemouth. But that Newcastle match was highly competitive.

520
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 2: They conceded one penalty. They were they were better than

521
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: Arsenal in the League Cup. Granted Arsenal did rotate uh

522
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: and they were better than United for large stretches and

523
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 2: then you know, kind of capitulated with the back keeper

524
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 2: making a mistaken over an extra time. So yeah, I

525
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 2: don't really think there's anything in their numbers that would

526
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: suggest you should downgrade Brentford at this point in the

527
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 2: season beyond just like looking at their numbers of the

528
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 2: results and getting biased by them. So I think Brentford's

529
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 2: the same. I think Chelsea's better than we thought. I

530
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: don't know how much better though, because if you look

531
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: at Chelsea's underlying numbers this season, they are third in

532
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 2: box entries, fifth and final third entries, which sounds really good.

533
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: They've been pretty good on set pieces, but the expected

534
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: threat is just sixth, the shots per ninety or eleventh,

535
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: the offense is ninth and x G per ninety and

536
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: they've created the twelve most big scoring chances, so they're

537
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 2: still not getting the same level of striker production. I

538
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 2: thought it was interesting that they you know, the one

539
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 2: player that I'm excited about is Palmer. I thought Palmer

540
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 2: played really well against Arsenal. I thought he played really

541
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: well in the match prior to that as well, and

542
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 2: he's really made a difference in getting the ball into

543
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 2: the box more and getting some shots. But you know,

544
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 2: Nico Jackson comes off the bench against our Arsenal, which

545
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 2: I thought was really interesting. So you know, I think

546
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: they're not really playing a striker out and out at

547
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 2: the moment necessarily, and that's a problem against Brentford because

548
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: Brentford's going to condense the space. You need somebody who

549
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: can operate in those tight spaces and create chances and

550
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 2: finish them, and I just don't know that Chelsea has

551
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 2: that right now. So while I still think Chelsea's a buy,

552
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 2: and really I thought they really messed up Arsenal last weekend,

553
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: like they dominated that match and they were unlucky to

554
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 2: only get a point. Yes, of course the goal was fortunate,

555
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: the second goal, but they were clearly the better side

556
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 2: in that match. So you know, the fact that they

557
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: just beat Arsenal up pretty bad, it's worth something to me.

558
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: And so I'm not necessarily like playing against Chelsea here.

559
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: I'm just playing against this number and thinking that the

560
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: market just doesn't like Brentford enough.

561
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: As always as always.

562
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: But I'm excited about Palmer. I'm gonna be watching Palmer.

563
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: I think that was interesting that Cidy let him get

564
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: away because he has been really impressive thus far. Yeah,

565
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: and that's look that don't underrate that because they've had

566
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 2: problems with that in the in the recent past. But yeah,

567
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 2: you know he got three shots against Arsenal, two shots

568
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 2: against Burnley, two against Fulham, so you know, some encouraging

569
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: signs Arsenal.

570
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: Now, I mean we could be pretty quick with this one.

571
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: There minus nine hundred. Sheffield United's traveling at twenty two

572
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: to one.

573
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: They're not Newton's not the worst team in the league

574
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: or not.

575
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: They've never been the worst team in the league.

576
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's always been chefon.

577
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, well it's because they're actually not even has

578
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: not been able to play. He's been hurt, So what's

579
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: the On's they get Tom Davis back in the line

580
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:37,239
Speaker 1: of thing.

581
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 2: I got a lot of injuries too.

582
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty two to one. It's kind of obligatory at

583
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: this point that I'll be on it. BJ.

584
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 2: I think we got a review that's just like they

585
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 2: just take the underdog every game, and that's I don't

586
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 2: think that's true, but we certainly have a bias toward

587
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 2: them because you know, let's have some fun, baby Arsenal.

588
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 2: It's over value.

589
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,239
Speaker 4: This is an insane Honestly, I don't think a lot

590
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 4: of guys are going to play in this match like

591
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 4: I think they might be.

592
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 2: So how are we not grab a lot of people here?

593
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 4: It's been a really condensed schedule for our small A

594
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 4: lot of guys are really banged up, like soccer should

595
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 4: sit rights should probably rest like, well they don't.

596
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 2: They don't do that though I don't rest soccer. They

597
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 2: have never rested them, and it's crazy. You should just.

598
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 4: Play Trossard or Tie or Hevertz or somebody other than

599
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 4: him and just give him a break. They got a

600
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,719
Speaker 4: League Cup match coming up in the week, give him

601
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 4: another rest there and we'll get back to it in

602
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 4: the weekend. But again, here's the thing with Chef with United,

603
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 4: I mean, this is the spot to bet them, like

604
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 4: very clearly, like if you want to take them what

605
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 4: they plus two and a half?

606
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: Right, the trash the trash play at least the.

607
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 4: Trash player of the week. I'll say this about them.

608
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 4: They suck. They try to defend the low block, they

609
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 4: can't do it. Teams just consistently break them down time

610
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 4: and time again. That's not compact. They're not. They are

611
00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 4: not compact, not not compact. You know, if we were

612
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 4: doing I gotta make some compact ratings coming up here,

613
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: that'd be good. Yeah, not compact, really bad defensively, There's

614
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 4: just really not much else to say at this point, like.

615
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 3: They're just they're hors. But why hasn't their manager have

616
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 3: been fired yet?

617
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 2: He is, Yeah, he's currently he's currently unemployed.

618
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 3: Oh so he can come back.

619
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 4: Also at Cheffield United's best center backs hurt, so that

620
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 4: also makes.

621
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: Me Yeah, no, it's not good.

622
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: So it's just it's all around not good. It's just

623
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 4: everything's not good.

624
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 3: Just move on. We'll watch Arsenal win for nothing and

625
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: we'll move on to better matches.

626
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: This is a look Arteta prior. Arsenal has not scored

627
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: yet in the first fifteen minutes of games this season,

628
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: and it has changed things. And I think that's you know,

629
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: when we look at you know, what causes teams to

630
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:51,479
Speaker 2: play differently, play worse. Arsenal was so good last year

631
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: at being up one no inside fifteen minutes. They so

632
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: often their first shot went in. And what happens when

633
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: that happens is you get to play more expansive because

634
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: teams have to come out and play you more, and

635
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: that let Arsenal do that. Now that they haven't had

636
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 2: that luxury, they've struggled to break down these more compact,

637
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: for lack of a better word, teams. You saw Jaesus though.

638
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: The difference he makes is massive for Arsenal in the

639
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 2: severe match, Congrats to bj on winning a head to

640
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: head against me. Yeah good, it was the right side,

641
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 2: but it was Jaesus. I mean he plays the ball

642
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: into Martinelle to get him in and then he scores

643
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: the goal to put the game quote unquote away. Just

644
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: need a side a halftime. So his absence is a

645
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: notable one because the replacements just not a good passer.

646
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: Saet ain't catch it, gets some decent shot numbers, but

647
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 2: he's not great. Arteta knows it too. So the reality

648
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,479
Speaker 2: is that if he's in, I'm gonna take some Arsenal

649
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: team total under two and a half at plus one thirty,

650
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: and I think that this is just like a two

651
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 2: nil cruiser and I'm gonna have to sweat out the

652
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: last thirty minutes and it's gonna suck, but it like

653
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: plus one thirty. Without jay Zus, I cannot get to

654
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 2: Arsenal being over you know too point eight goals essentially

655
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: what they would need to be. I just can't get

656
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: there with this Arsenal team. They've they have not been

657
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 2: good enough in attack to warrant that price.

658
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, that definitely is enough. On the trash

659
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: play of the week, uh born with and Burnley now

660
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: relegation six pointer?

661
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: Oh this is this is the like the most disgusting match.

662
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: I think that we're gonna see all weekends like.

663
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 4: It's just gonna be like, can we bet on mistakes

664
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 4: being happened? It's all over mistakes, Like it's just gonna

665
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: be so stupid.

666
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: It's either gonna be yeah, it's it's it's it's either

667
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: gonna be seven five or another game where you want

668
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: to back the nil nil. It's just weird.

669
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 3: How many more matches to your IOLA have? How many more?

670
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: Because I already this week they were talking about side.

671
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: Yeah he's he's living and dying very it's very upsetting.

672
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's living and dying by his hybrid press and

673
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 4: it's not working and he won't change. And they built

674
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 4: this entire squad around his system.

675
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: So you got to stick to the plan. They'll stay up.

676
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 2: The result are coming well let's maybe maybe.

677
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 4: Never Let's say, I mean, what's their what's their schedule

678
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 4: coming up?

679
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: Here?

680
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: The schedule lightened up. They got to play Wolves at home.

681
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: Now they didn't win Everdent they got.

682
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 4: The scheduled cook headbutted Hawang and that was all she wrote.

683
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 2: And now he's out too, He's out Phil.

684
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 3: It gets a lot easier after Burn. They got Liverpool

685
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 3: City Newcastle.

686
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 2: I swear they've only played the good teams. Wait, how

687
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: are they playing Liverpool?

688
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 1: Cut bad uh born with plus one ten here at home?

689
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 3: This is the easiest passing.

690
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: I do think that you can play some wild correct

691
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: scores or something here, like have some fun with this one.

692
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 4: Over over over three and a half, over four and

693
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 4: a half. Both these teams are exactly the same. They

694
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 4: try to build out of the back, spider Man, they

695
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 4: can't do a soccer match. Both them try to press

696
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 4: high and they can't do it. So it's either going

697
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 4: to be teams trade. He tries to build out the

698
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 4: back and just makes a billion mistakes, or they just

699
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,479
Speaker 4: get played right through. So either way it's probably gonna

700
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 4: lead to a lot of goals.

701
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 2: I was pretty high on Bourneuth coming into the season.

702
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 2: I still am, but I'm done at this point. At

703
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,479
Speaker 2: this point, it's more of sunk cost than anything else.

704
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: Like I know, BJ just wants every little team in

705
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 2: the league to sit deep and put twelve dudes in

706
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: the Bible just possession and be compacts. Well, you know what,

707
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: I respect and Donny Ariola because he went after it

708
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 2: and for like three minutes against Liverpool they had the lead.

709
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,240
Speaker 2: In match week two after getting a solid home result

710
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: against West Ham and I was a believer in that moment.

711
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: I tweeted Eiola ball. I put the cherry emoji in

712
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: the tweet and I was like, you know what, this

713
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: team is real. He would have been okay if he

714
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: didn't have all of his players heard at the same

715
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: time to start the season. I think that's that hurt them.

716
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: Tyler Adams would have been nice if he ever plays,

717
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,879
Speaker 2: but he never plays, so we kind of check aroun

718
00:35:54,520 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 2: February now Yeah and uh tragic. Yeah none.

719
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: Wolverhampton plus three twenty hosting red hot Newcastle minus one.

720
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: I guess they're not red hot anymore. They lest the

721
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: Dortmund today. Yeah, Newcastle's minus one thirty four and the

722
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 1: draw is three to one. Newcastle. I think would be

723
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: the other team that I like most if I was

724
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: building a square parlay with City. We'll talk about another

725
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,760
Speaker 1: one later in the show. But uh, this Wolves team, man.

726
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: Maybe Borma should have kept the man that's managing this

727
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 4: Wolves team right now to twelfth place.

728
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Gary O'Neill renaissance into Wolves, I mean, how

729
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: about how good did that feel for Gary O'Neil last week?

730
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 3: I felt great?

731
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I just think that this it's gonna end

732
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 1: up being one way traffic for Newcastle here. What do

733
00:36:59,000 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: you think? BJ?

734
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 4: I agree, I'm lanning you with Newcastle. I think the

735
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 4: price is way too short. We've now seen both Liverpool

736
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 4: and City go play Wolves. Now, those two matches, Wolves

737
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 4: played very valiantly. They played pretty well I thought against

738
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 4: Liverpool and obviously beat City. But Liverpool closed at minus

739
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 4: one fifty City closed at minus two to fifty on

740
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 4: the road. Here is Newcastle worse than Liverpool right now?

741
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think they're pretty close and

742
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 3: let a lot.

743
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 4: I mean, Newcastle's leading the Premier League and expect a

744
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 4: golden French hole right now.

745
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 3: I think that they.

746
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 4: Especially in a situation like this where they just absolutely

747
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 4: obliterate teams in the bottom half of the table. And Wolves,

748
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 4: I mean they are not just this total transitional team

749
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 4: that will just try to evade Newcastle's press. They're still

750
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 4: trying to pull it out of the back. They're still

751
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,879
Speaker 4: trying to get past the first line of defense, get

752
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 4: the ball out wide to netto and really create that

753
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 4: transitional type opportunity. It's been working like they've been pretty

754
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 4: good at doing that. But I worry here if they

755
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 4: can't get past that first line of the pressure, what happens.

756
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 4: And I think once Newcastle goes ahead, it's gonna be

757
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 4: one way traffic just keep going one way and the

758
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 4: ball is going to keep going in the back of

759
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:09,760
Speaker 4: the net.

760
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: Over and over and over again.

761
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 4: I mean, wolves offensive numbers for the season still hasn't

762
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 4: been that impressive. I mean they're, you know, twelfth and

763
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 4: expected goals, they're seventeenth and expected threat Like there's still

764
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 4: not this jug er not offense, just because Pedro Nato

765
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 4: just keeps going off.

766
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 3: So we'll see.

767
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: I mean, maybe I'll be wrong and they'll put in

768
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 4: another great performance like they did against Liverpool and City,

769
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 4: but I just don't see them if they're trying to

770
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 4: build out of the back if the hell they're going

771
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 4: to play through them. So I'm laying with Newcastle protect

772
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 4: them over minus two hundred here, so Newcastle minus one thirty.

773
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 2: I wonder Wolve's over five and four this year.

774
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 3: True.

775
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 1: Right before I hand it over to you, Anthony, I

776
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: do want to say, like, maybe this, uh, this Wolves team,

777
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: we should give them a little bit of of credit

778
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: as a as a team that can can punch up

779
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: pretty well. Like City the City win. They played well against.

780
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:13,959
Speaker 4: Villa United Britain bright match the season they match.

781
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: They were even on XG with with Brighton, although that

782
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: game was all over the place, so it's hard to

783
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,280
Speaker 1: even look into that. But last year too with O'Neill

784
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 1: and born with like they they punched up all right too,

785
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: So it could just be one of his hidden talents. Anthony,

786
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on on Wolves at Newcastle?

787
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 2: Well, I thought it was very interesting that Dortmund didn't

788
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 2: really try to have possession today and it was effective.

789
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 2: I watched that match. I was most intrigued tactically by

790
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: that match, so I had it on the main screen

791
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 2: and I thought that, uh, Dortmund really just gave Newcastle

792
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 2: the ball and said, go ahead, try to beat us,

793
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: and they couldn't. Newcastle's only had fifty four percent of

794
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,439
Speaker 2: the possession this year, which is eighth in the league.

795
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: Get as much lower than you'd expect for a team

796
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: who is a top three, clearly power rated team in

797
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 2: the league. So the question is, you know, does Wolves

798
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 2: want to have more possession here? Because Wolves as a

799
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: team are you know, right around league average and possession

800
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 2: as well. So they, like you said, they're not just transitioned.

801
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 2: They do like to have some of the ball, but

802
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 2: I don't think that's the optimal way to play against Newcastle.

803
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 2: So from a matchup perspective, you know, the attach for Wolves,

804
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 2: like you said, it's not great. It's just Pedro Nato

805
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: being Pedro Nato and very good at being Pedro and Nato.

806
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 2: But there are some injury concerns popping for Newcastle now

807
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: that need to be monitored. Esoch went off with an

808
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: injury today. His absence is a pretty solid one for them.

809
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 2: If he's not able to go this weekend, I would

810
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: not be able to lay this price with Newcastle, So

811
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 2: no bet for me at the moment, but monitoring ESAK

812
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 2: lean toward them, But do think that like at some

813
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: point we have to be at the top of the

814
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: market on them, right maybe like like no no Botman

815
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: and no Esac potentially this weekend. I mean, I don't

816
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 2: know this price like best underlying numbers in the prem

817
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 2: is insane to think about given.

818
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 3: And they feel special.

819
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 2: That's that's my other They played one of the six

820
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 2: toughest and we have not. We came in and we

821
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 2: were like not really buying the regression angle. The people that,

822
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 2: you know, others thought I wasn't. I have a top

823
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: four ticket on them that I feel very good about,

824
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 2: but like they're not. I didn't think they'd be better.

825
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 3: They've been better. They've been better.

826
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: That's crazy.

827
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 4: Also, one more thing I want to mention, uh since

828
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 4: I wrote this up a couple of weeks ago, but

829
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 4: since the start of last seas last season, Newcastle against

830
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 4: teams in the bottom half of the table plus one

831
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 4: point two seven actually differential per ninety minutes, they obliterate

832
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 4: the bottom half of the table. So you know, this

833
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 4: could be another situation where you know that they obviously

834
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 4: gave away a late one to west Ham game, they

835
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 4: had pretty good control, but and you know, Newcastle on

836
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 4: the road is my different than at home. But again,

837
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 4: if we truly believe that they're on the level with

838
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 4: Liverpool and you know even not not not on the

839
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 4: level of City, but somewhere close to it, like they

840
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 4: should be priced higher here on the road given what

841
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 4: those two teams were priced against.

842
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 1: Wolves, west Ham and Everton.

843
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 3: Now this is the best match the weekend.

844
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, it always is, no surprise who we're

845
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: all on.

846
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 3: I could be Moy's west Ham block.

847
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: Who's who's better Everton or Manchester United, Everton if Everton.

848
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 2: If if United went to Everton and was a Pickham,

849
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 2: would you bet Everton.

850
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: If they went?

851
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 3: I would probably.

852
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they played tomorrow at Everton. See the game is

853
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 2: lined as a toss up.

854
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 3: You see what I'd make that match?

855
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 2: You who do you bet?

856
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 3: I'm gonna tell you what I mean.

857
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: I don't make I was curious earlier, so I just

858
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 2: put it into I made United a favorite, but I

859
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 2: would still bet Everton a toss That's how much I

860
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: think they're They're playing at a at a high level right.

861
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 4: Now at United plus one fifteen, so but they'd make

862
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 4: United like minus one twenty on the road. So yeah, yeah, no,

863
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 4: I mean Everton's awesome. They're great, Michael. They're gonna get

864
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 4: a twelve point deduction. We're all gonna bet them to

865
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 4: stay up, and it's gonna be great. It's gonna be

866
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 4: one of the best betting opportunities they get Everton.

867
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 2: Everton finally having a good enough team to stay up

868
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 2: and then getting a penalty to get put back in

869
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 2: the relegation race is very Everton. Yeah, I should say.

870
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: That they can't give it if that comes with a

871
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: point deduction with Chairman Bill ken Wright's passing over the week,

872
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: so it's no.

873
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: Tragedy bet.

874
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

875
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 4: It's also it's very funny that what how many charges

876
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 4: of city up to at this point and now they're

877
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 4: gonna go after.

878
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 2: Everything they're they're facing a one hundred and sixty eight

879
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 2: point I.

880
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 3: Saw it on Twitter somebody. It's like, it's really unfortunate.

881
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 4: Everton's lawyers aren't rich like like cities ours, so they're

882
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:58,399
Speaker 4: they're facing this trouble now.

883
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: In terms of this match, though, I do, I think

884
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear. It's great who the right side is

885
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 1: west Ham?

886
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:06,720
Speaker 3: What planet?

887
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 4: What planet is west Ham? A favorite home here?

888
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: Like what planet?

889
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: I think they're bad even teams would I would agree.

890
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 3: I think West Ham sucks quite frankly.

891
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,839
Speaker 2: I mean they do. Their defense is really bad.

892
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: The effort and attack we've talked about how it's yeah,

893
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 1: pretty good. It's it's right up there in terms of

894
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 1: expected goals with it's better than United, it's not too

895
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: far off of Arsenal, it's not too far off of City.

896
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: At last, before last week they had more expected goals

897
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 1: created than City. A schedule has toppened up a bit

898
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: and they've been all right. Like they played that game

899
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 1: against Liverpool, I thought they played really well until I

900
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 1: mean they caught that they got a bad whistle. Even

901
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 1: the first time I've ever heard Rgen klop Not, you know,

902
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: complain about his own team when when when the reporters,

903
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: you know Everdon kind of got screwed there and he's like, yeah,

904
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: they weren't lucky. I almost fell out of my chair.

905
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: But it was crazy that they that if you're going

906
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: to send off Ashley Young, that that Kunante wasn't sent off,

907
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: and the fact that Klapp took him off the pitch

908
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 1: as soon as they they didn't give him the second yellow,

909
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: it tells you everything. It's one of those matches where

910
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: like because there was a red card and things kind

911
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 1: of got out of hand for like the last forty

912
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,720
Speaker 1: minutes or so, the numbers might look a little skewed,

913
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 1: but eye test wise, that first half Everdon was right

914
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: there and I see them giving this west Ham defense

915
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: quite a bit of trouble. So yeah, put on my

916
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:48,240
Speaker 1: blue nose, Anthony.

917
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, at the risk of being redundant. I mean, look

918
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 2: at the lineup that Everton played last week and compare

919
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: it to the lineup that Everton put out on opening Day,

920
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: and it's you know, a night and day. Huge difference

921
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 2: is that.

922
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 1: They don't have Neil Malpai anymore.

923
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: Hm hmm.

924
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 2: That's true. But you know James Garner plays more centrally

925
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 2: instead of Neil Mapai. It's dominic cavert Lewin instead of

926
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 2: a Woebee out wide you're getting You're getting Jack Harrison,

927
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,720
Speaker 2: Like there's some real upgrades here in this team. Dan Juma,

928
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: you know being available as well. Like this is a

929
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,399
Speaker 2: good attack period. I don't care what the actually said

930
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 2: against Liverpool, they were they're a good attacking side. So

931
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 2: now they play a west Ham team. If you just

932
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 2: sort the table and you take out effects for game

933
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: state and man advantages disadvantages, so even game like I said,

934
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 2: even game state or minus one minus two plus one

935
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 2: plus two so within reason non blowouts. Eleven on eleven minutes,

936
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 2: no penalties. West Ham this season has a minus point

937
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 2: three to seven expected goal difference per ninety in those minutes.

938
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 2: They have conceded one point eighty six expected goals per

939
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: ninety in those minutes, which is the fifth worst in

940
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 2: the league, ahead of the three newly promoted teams and Bournemouth.

941
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 2: That's where we're at here. And if you just you know,

942
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 2: grind it down and you say, well, this is what

943
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,839
Speaker 2: David Moyes does when they have the lead. They play

944
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 2: very conservatively and thus they can see more chances. Even still,

945
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 2: they're expected goals allowed is middle of the pack. Defensively,

946
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,240
Speaker 2: they are twelve, so it is not just Moy's ball

947
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 2: park the bus ball. This is not a great defensive

948
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 2: team anymore. And you compare this to Everton, who in

949
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 2: those same original game states has the third most expected

950
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: goals created, behind only Liverpool and Newcastle. And look, the

951
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 2: defense is not great, but guess what, it's better than

952
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: west Ham's, so you know, expect a goal difference for

953
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 2: them plus point six per ninety. I don't think that's

954
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: you know, quite what Everton is. But it gets to

955
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 2: the point, which is that west Ham has been considerably

956
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 2: worse than Everton in every way this year and we're

957
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 2: getting a half a goal on Everton on the d.

958
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 2: That is a bet for me.

959
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the defense like getting Jared Branthwaite and over

960
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: Michael Keane. He's a beast, He's great. Bj Yeah. You

961
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 1: guys kind of look like you could be related.

962
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 3: What uh, what do you think I'll take that? Yeah? No,

963
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 3: Everton and over two and a half.

964
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:24,359
Speaker 4: Here. This is something I mentioned last week. So now

965
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 4: we're at last five Premier League matches, west Ham has

966
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 4: conceded twelve goals, half of eleven point six expected. So basically,

967
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 4: all these goals they're allowing in they are deserved. They

968
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 4: are not overperforming or underforming. They are pretty much right

969
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 4: around where they should be. And what's been happening is

970
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 4: they are just tiring out when they are defending without

971
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,240
Speaker 4: the ball for sixty to seventy percent of the match.

972
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 4: Sixty percent of their expected goals allowed this season are

973
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 4: coming in the second half of matches. The other thing

974
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 4: about this match is west Ham. You know David wass Ball,

975
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:56,919
Speaker 4: what does he want to do. He wants to clog

976
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 4: the middle of the pitch, force the ball out wide

977
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 4: and dare you to beat the crosses. West Ham's opponents

978
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 4: have attempted two and twenty three crosses in nine matches

979
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,919
Speaker 4: this season, so it's not a shock they're dead last

980
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 4: and crosses completed into their penalty area. Crossing is the

981
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 4: main way that Everton creates most of their chances. Second

982
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 4: most attempting crosses in the Premier League behind only Looton

983
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 4: Town and they have the sixth most completed into their

984
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 4: penalty area. And you know, offensively, if you think about

985
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 4: what west Ham is, what do they purely rely on.

986
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 4: It's just transitional moments and set pieces, you know, sixth

987
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 4: and final third to box entry conversion rate, seventh most

988
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 4: big scoring chances and second and xt cheaper set piece.

989
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 4: But Everton has been a good set piece defense. And

990
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 4: the only worry that you could have here with Everton

991
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 4: is if west Ham decides to just evade their front

992
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:54,399
Speaker 4: line press and just go and try to win fifty

993
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 4: to fifty balls and get you know, transitional opportunities that way,

994
00:49:57,960 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 4: that they do have a lot of dangerous players like

995
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 4: Pikettel Jared Bowen who can really give Everton a lot

996
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 4: of problems. So that's why I kind of like the

997
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 4: over two and a half here. Also, West Am has

998
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 4: the travel de Grease take on Olympiacos in the Europa

999
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 4: League on Thursday. They also just played on Sunday, so

1000
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 4: Everton will have another day rest and we'll have played

1001
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 4: one less match.

1002
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 3: Going on the road here against west Ham.

1003
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 4: So Everton plus a half minus one twenty seven and

1004
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 4: over two and a half at minus one twenty five.

1005
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: All right, let's get through these last ones pretty quickly

1006
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: because we are going pretty deep. Villa and Lutontown. It's

1007
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 1: a big.

1008
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 2: What a win for Loutontown against that.

1009
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 3: Was amazing, What a moment, What a moment.

1010
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 2: There were some there was some shade being thrown in

1011
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 2: the Action Network Soccer discord and those people can shut

1012
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: it yeah like you.

1013
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, me, Yeah, I'm just gonna take a break this

1014
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 4: weekend for Lootontown. There is value on them again, like

1015
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 4: there is every but as these the time matches of

1016
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 4: ra Aston Villa just pumps these teams like it just

1017
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 4: has happened. So many times that I'm just gonna you know,

1018
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 4: I've got my win against Nonam Forrest, a very lucky one.

1019
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 4: I'm just going to sit back. I'm gonna watch Aston

1020
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 4: Villa win five nothing and I'll come back next week

1021
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 4: to watch Lowtontown. I don't know who they play, but uh,

1022
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 4: I'm sure i'll be on them.

1023
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 2: I'm excited for Thursday's matchup Azy Alkamar Liverpool Luton.

1024
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,439
Speaker 4: Liverpool Atton Liverpool traveling to Luton Town to play.

1025
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 3: We'll get some Louton plus two in there.

1026
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,760
Speaker 1: All right, let's just move on Brighton before I Before

1027
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:42,839
Speaker 1: I commits myself, bright as an odds on favorite against Fulham. Now,

1028
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,439
Speaker 1: Brighton's mine is one eighty eight, Bulham plus four seventy five,

1029
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 1: the Dry is plus three thirty three. I'm saying that

1030
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 1: I think there's another team that would bear well in

1031
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 1: a in a square parlay with City or Newcastle. I

1032
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: think that would be Brighton. I can't see this Fulham defense,

1033
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 1: although like they were okay, I guess Spurs on Monday. Uh,

1034
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: It's hard to trust them to be able to shut

1035
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:18,240
Speaker 1: down an attack that is just buzzing at all times.

1036
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 1: And I know Brighton plays with fire. But I just

1037
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: think that this is one of those matches where we

1038
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: you're kind of kicking yourself when it's three nothing Brighton

1039
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 1: at halftime if you sit it out, so I will

1040
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:35,520
Speaker 1: be on the Seagulls, City and Newcastle probably in like

1041
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: some sort of two out of those three in a parlay.

1042
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 1: I checked it in the Action app as.

1043
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:45,760
Speaker 2: We get closer to kick off, leave off playing favorites

1044
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 2: like I'm trying to it's freaky shit.

1045
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:50,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, this late kind of calls for it, if you like.

1046
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: I think stylistically like between in those three matchups, like

1047
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 1: and BJ argued it with the Newcastle game, like minus

1048
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 1: went thirty when you look at Spur Spurs is minus

1049
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: one twenty five at Palace and Newcastle was minus one

1050
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 1: thirty at Wolves. I feel like Newcastle might be a

1051
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 1: little cheap there. But yeah, I think I think Brighton

1052
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 1: this is just one way traffic and a great matchup

1053
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 1: for them.

1054
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: I agree.

1055
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 4: I'm I'm taking Brighton minus one minus one twenty.

1056
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 3: I don't know Fulham like it's trying.

1057
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 4: To do offensively, Like I'm kind of lost in what

1058
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 4: Marco Silva's like plan is like because sometimes I'll watch

1059
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 4: them and they're going to try to build out of

1060
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 4: the back and the other times they just send it

1061
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 4: a long and try to play transitionally. I thought the

1062
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,280
Speaker 4: match against Tottham was very evident that they were trying

1063
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 4: at times to build out of the back and just

1064
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 4: succumb to Tottenham's pressure as the match went along.

1065
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:48,839
Speaker 3: And I think that's what's going to happen again here.

1066
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: Of course there's the.

1067
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 4: Angle where they could just evade Brighton's press and really

1068
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 4: really beat them in some few transitional opportunities. But I mean,

1069
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,760
Speaker 4: who in this act for Fulham is going to threaten

1070
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 4: like the back line. I know Fulham created one big

1071
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 4: scoring chance against Tottam late when the match was already

1072
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 4: out a hand, but outside of that, before that, they

1073
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 4: did nothing for pretty much the entire first sixty minutes

1074
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 4: of the match.

1075
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 3: And what I know what deserved he's going to do.

1076
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 4: He's going to do exactly kind of what Tottenham did.

1077
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 4: He's going to overload the central parts of the pitch,

1078
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 4: force Fulham to play very, very compact, and he's gonna

1079
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 4: get Matoma and I think March is out and whoever's

1080
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 4: on the whoever's going to be playing on the right side,

1081
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,800
Speaker 4: whether Jaques pedro Fati, whoever it is, He's going to

1082
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:37,799
Speaker 4: get them in one on one situations and they're just

1083
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:41,720
Speaker 4: going to repeatedly cook the Fulham wing backs and evade

1084
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 4: the box and just play crosses right into the middle

1085
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 4: of time and time again. So projected Brighton of minu

1086
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 4: around mines to forty. So I think there's some value

1087
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 4: in our Seagulls against Fulham.

1088
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, nodding of force in Liverpool to close

1089
00:54:56,040 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 1: out our discussion here, Uh Liverpool, it is three point

1090
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 1: fifty Forest traveling at nine to one on the three

1091
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 1: way line and the draws plus four seventy five. Anthony

1092
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 1: convinced me on Noddingham forrest because you know, I love

1093
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 1: myself a bet against Liverpool when they're this big.

1094
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think Liverpool is starting to figure some things out.

1095
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 2: Gravin Burke and McAllister in kind of a double pivot

1096
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 2: role seemed to be effective for them in the match

1097
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 2: against Everton in terms of a defensive perspective. I thought

1098
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 2: they were much better defensively in that match and that

1099
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 2: is encouraging. Okay, starting well, I think that's more just

1100
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 2: like macro on, like Liverpool I think that they're an

1101
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 2: encouraging team here. But I'm also encouraged by Nottingham Forrest,

1102
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 2: who are playing the lowest event soccer in the league.

1103
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 2: And I think that's notable because they're kind of zagging right.

1104
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: Like we've talked all year about every team in this

1105
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 2: league going and just turning the dial toward attack. Burnley, Bourne, Myth, Brighton,

1106
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:03,720
Speaker 2: Newcastle Spurs, even West Ham are playing higher event matches.

1107
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:07,240
Speaker 2: There are very few teams left who we are embracing defense.

1108
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 2: And look, that was not Nodingham Forrest last season. This

1109
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 2: season it is and they've been They've been a good

1110
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 2: defensive side and I think that's meaningful in this season

1111
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 2: given their general counter attacking talent that they have on

1112
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: display now from an expected goal is allowed perspective, I

1113
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 2: am Forrest top half of the league. They have not

1114
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 2: created a ton as a result of that, but their

1115
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 2: attack has still been just generically bad, not you know,

1116
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 2: at the level of like a Burnley, Sheffield or Bormouth.

1117
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 2: So they're still getting enough out of the attack to

1118
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:41,279
Speaker 2: make it work. And the defense is what I'm really

1119
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: encouraged by and why I think that they're generally undervalued

1120
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 2: and I've gone back and forth on them. You know,

1121
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 2: I famously never write about this team. It looks like

1122
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 2: Tywoll might be back. That's one thing to watch here.

1123
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:57,879
Speaker 2: Last week it was he's progressing, he's going to return

1124
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 2: to training. We don't know yet, we're waiting to see.

1125
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to probably bet them if he's in. I'm

1126
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 2: going to bet them if he's in, and I still

1127
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 2: may bet them if he's out plus one and a half,

1128
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen. I have this just under one and

1129
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:14,879
Speaker 2: a half. So I think that forrest. You know, they're

1130
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 2: the team that I bumped the most from preseason to now,

1131
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 2: actually because I think that there's their numbers are more real.

1132
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 2: Like last year they stayed up, but it wasn't real,

1133
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 2: And this year they have backed up their numbers to

1134
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 2: the point where I can respect them and buy into

1135
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: the fact that they are playing differently. And I think

1136
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 2: it's a fun, fun dichotomy that Steve Cooper has become

1137
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 2: more pragmatic to help this team stay up. But yeah,

1138
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 2: I mean, they're not allowing a lot of big scoring chances,

1139
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 2: and they're keeping teams out of the penalty are at

1140
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 2: a decent rate.

1141
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 3: So the Steve Cooper, guy Michael.

1142
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:52,400
Speaker 2: He might be us. It's major zag energy. He's still

1143
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what to make it. This guy,

1144
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 2: I never had no idea.

1145
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: You didn't know what to make about and told you

1146
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: he was good. He's good.

1147
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1148
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:10,439
Speaker 1: For Sean Ditshould Everden like Okay, so much to learn, Anthony,

1149
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 1: before we get into the rest of the leagues in Europe,

1150
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,320
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1160
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1161
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Speaker 2: Boon is dat. I feel like we were all on

1179
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:54,439
Speaker 2: the time.

1180
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: Why not right back to you, Anthony will be pretty

1181
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:57,440
Speaker 1: quick here.

1182
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 2: So I've actually got nothing. This is easy for me.

1183
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 2: I love the Bundesliga. It's a league that I watch

1184
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 2: every Saturday, not one bet popped on my numbers, and

1185
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 2: so in last weekend market movement, I'm gonna have to

1186
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:11,439
Speaker 2: sit out the weekend, which is probably better because last

1187
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 2: weekend's two bad beats were horrendous. Well, Leverkusen undefeated. The

1188
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: one thing to watch is Stuttgart. No Jerassi this week.

1189
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 2: He's out. They're only minus one twenty at home against Hoffenheim,

1190
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 2: which when I went to look at was like, that

1191
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: can't be right, and then I remembered that, yes, Jirase

1192
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 2: went off injured, so the best striker in the world

1193
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: will not be playing unfortunately this weekend, and I'll be passing.

1194
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 1: Wow, all right, bjuh Glodbach Heidenheim over three and a

1195
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:46,560
Speaker 1: half goals plus one thirty.

1196
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 4: I wanted to come on here and do some like,

1197
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 4: you know, I'll retire if this goal, if this match

1198
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 4: remains zero zero, but Chris Russo already already kind of

1199
01:00:56,960 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 4: took that seam away from everybody, so I don't really

1200
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 4: want to do that.

1201
01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 3: I'll just let's just say I'll before Oh, come on,

1202
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 3: it's funny.

1203
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 4: I really don't see how this match doesn't isn't like

1204
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 4: a four to four, just like really chaotic, like hide Inheim.

1205
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 4: They might be the worst defensive team I've ever seen

1206
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 4: come up to any one of these any one of

1207
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 4: these leagues. I mean, so far this season they have

1208
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,439
Speaker 4: conceded twenty one expected goals in eight matches, like they

1209
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,479
Speaker 4: are just conceding chances for fun.

1210
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 3: They are the most direct team of anybody in the Bundesliga.

1211
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 4: They're just just built in all these transitional attacks. They

1212
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 4: leave themselves wide open. Gladbach is gonna be without Kone.

1213
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 4: He got a red card over the over the weekend,

1214
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 4: so he's not going to be available. He's their best

1215
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 4: ball stopper in the middle of the pitch. So when

1216
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:48,840
Speaker 4: you're playing a primarily transitional team, I think this match

1217
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 4: is just open.

1218
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 3: Right back and forth written all over it. I mean, Glodboch.

1219
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 4: Anthony will tell you that their defense is not great

1220
01:01:56,640 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 4: at the moment. So Coffenheim over three and a half

1221
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 4: plus one thirty. I will not retire if it en

1222
01:02:05,480 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 4: zero zero, but I will be floored all right.

1223
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 1: El Classico La Liga Barcelona dealing with a seemingly host

1224
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 1: of injuries here, what do your thoughts? BJ?

1225
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, right now, Lewandowski, diong Pedri, Rafina are all

1226
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 4: questionable to.

1227
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 3: Play in this match.

1228
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 4: If they all play, I love Barcelona pick minus one

1229
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 4: twenty five. I don't I think they should be a

1230
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 4: round an even money favorite at home if they all

1231
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 4: follow those guys play. If they don't and we see

1232
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 4: some type of lineup that we saw against Shocktar today,

1233
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 4: there's no way I'm touching this at all. You know,

1234
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:47,520
Speaker 4: Barcelona the last time that they played Real Madrid, they

1235
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 4: beat them. You know, they played a really good match

1236
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 4: against them, one on XG won the match two to

1237
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 4: one and one of those El classicals.

1238
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 3: But yeah, just from a price.

1239
01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:58,440
Speaker 4: Point, I mean, we came into the season, you know

1240
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 4: when me and Anthony did the La Liga preview, where like,

1241
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 4: why is Barcelona underdogged Real Madrid? And now what this

1242
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 4: line is implying is that Real Madrid would be a

1243
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 4: favorite on a neutral field, which I don't agree is

1244
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 4: the case again, if Barcelona is fully healthy. If they're not,

1245
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:15,640
Speaker 4: then I'm not touching this. But I made Barcelona and

1246
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 4: even money favorite here. So if all of those guys

1247
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 4: play in Barcelona, you know, has deon to be able

1248
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 4: to break down Real Madrid, which it will be very

1249
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 4: interesting because the last time Real Madrid press them pretty

1250
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 4: high to try to stop them from just you know,

1251
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:34,480
Speaker 4: having time and space on the ball and trying to

1252
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 4: make line breaking passes. Yeah, if Barcelona doesn't have Deong

1253
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:42,960
Speaker 4: or Lewandowski, then it's hard for me to see how

1254
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 4: you can play them in this match.

1255
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 2: Agree entirely. I mean, we're pretty much in line with

1256
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:51,040
Speaker 2: what we think about Barcelona and Real Madrid. Bellingham will

1257
01:03:51,040 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 2: score probably three goals, but only if I don't bet Madrid,

1258
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 2: so only if I do against Madrid.

1259
01:03:58,600 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 3: Rather not show it in the Champions League two.

1260
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 2: No, they were poor against Braga and I don't rate

1261
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:08,880
Speaker 2: Braga very highly. So this team is just not that great.

1262
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 2: They're good, not that great. We said that every year.

1263
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 1: So uh, Anthony, you gonna try to beat Atlet it

1264
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:16,120
Speaker 1: go Madrid again.

1265
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 2: Now I'm gonna take.

1266
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 3: A you're walking, dude, You're walking into fire here.

1267
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 2: I'm going up against I mean, this is like a

1268
01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 2: cell high of cell highs. I mean, Girona sells Tati

1269
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 2: and it just doesn't matter. Like they're playing at an

1270
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 2: unreal level and they have dominated La Liga to this

1271
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 2: point in the season, and there's not that much air

1272
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 2: in the numbers. I just am skeptical that they'll keep

1273
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 2: doing this. Uh, they have put up the fifth best

1274
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:49,800
Speaker 2: expected goal differential in the league. They have they have

1275
01:04:50,560 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 2: not conceded anything like that. This is a weird situation

1276
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 2: where like Girona has the third most expected goals created.

1277
01:04:57,200 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 2: But again you have to start looking, okay, where what

1278
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 2: could be some call of this. It's not the schedule.

1279
01:05:03,120 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 2: I mean, they've played Sosia Dodd, they got to play Sociadad,

1280
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 2: a weakened version of them. They played Via Real, they

1281
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:11,880
Speaker 2: played Real Madrid. So I just think it's like running

1282
01:05:11,880 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 2: really good for a little while, scoring a bunch of

1283
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:16,760
Speaker 2: goals and that's fine. But Vigo is the most underrated

1284
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:21,480
Speaker 2: team in Spain right now. They were dominating Atletico Madrid

1285
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 2: prior to that red card on Saturday. They took seven

1286
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:29,000
Speaker 2: of the first eight shots. They dominated Gaitafe in a draw.

1287
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 2: They out played Las Palmas in a last second loss.

1288
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:35,920
Speaker 2: In that match, they were better than Barsa for more

1289
01:05:35,960 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 2: than an hour. Like they have put up performance at

1290
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 2: the performance and not gotten results in any of the matches.

1291
01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 2: This is the time to builo on Vigo and sell

1292
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 2: high on Girona, who at the beginning of the season

1293
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 2: I would have told you Vigo's the better team. They

1294
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:51,920
Speaker 2: have not been to this point, but I think they

1295
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:57,320
Speaker 2: will be going forward. So Vigo plus a half Syria.

1296
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 1: Ah, now, Anthony on your boys.

1297
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Fiorentina does it again. They just keep putting on

1298
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 2: those performances that we love. And here's the thing about Latzio, right,

1299
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,440
Speaker 2: there are some schedule effects. They've played a tougher than

1300
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 2: an average schedule. But you know, we've talked about that

1301
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:18,959
Speaker 2: about nauseam in the show. In twenty twenty one, twenty

1302
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 2: twenty two, they had a plus point two expected gold

1303
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 2: differential per ninety minutes, which is a seventh ish best

1304
01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:25,960
Speaker 2: team on normal averages, and that's where the market had

1305
01:06:26,000 --> 01:06:29,120
Speaker 2: them priced. They finished really hot and got to a

1306
01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 2: top five finish even though they didn't deserve it. Last season,

1307
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:34,600
Speaker 2: they finished second in the league despite a plus point

1308
01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 2: twenty six x G per ninety. Basically were the same

1309
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 2: team ran really good again this year and Mobile has

1310
01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 2: been out of the lineup. They have a negative expected

1311
01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 2: gold difference in Syria minus point oh three per ninety.

1312
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 2: Like I said, the schedule is a little tougher, so

1313
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:51,720
Speaker 2: you can maybe schedule just a little bit but here's

1314
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:54,720
Speaker 2: the concern, and I thought this was really interesting. They

1315
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 2: started Chiero mobile A into Kaipe at Finnhord today and

1316
01:06:58,640 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 2: I don't think he's the best striker on the team.

1317
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 2: So the fact that when he came back they brought

1318
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 2: him in over Castellanos, who put up good numbers at

1319
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 2: Gerona last year and has now put up zero point

1320
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 2: four to nine XTG per ninety in his first three

1321
01:07:10,880 --> 01:07:12,800
Speaker 2: point three nineties for the club. The fact they went

1322
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 2: with a mobile A now fit over him, I think

1323
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:16,760
Speaker 2: might be a minus TV decision. I think it might

1324
01:07:16,800 --> 01:07:19,920
Speaker 2: make Latzio worse. Fiorentina has the much better ball progression numbers.

1325
01:07:19,920 --> 01:07:24,440
Speaker 2: They should dominate the exchanges in this match. Their question

1326
01:07:24,720 --> 01:07:27,760
Speaker 2: is always coming down to goal scoring and do they

1327
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:30,640
Speaker 2: have enough firepower. But I'm gonna take them plus two

1328
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:34,919
Speaker 2: to ten on the money line and ride with Italiano ball.

1329
01:07:36,040 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 4: I have a wonderfully boring match. Leche to Reno. Both

1330
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:43,040
Speaker 4: teams to score No. Minus one thirty. These are two

1331
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 4: of the better defensive teams I know a Lecha hasn't

1332
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 4: put up great defensive numbers so far this season.

1333
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 3: They just had a bad showing.

1334
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:49,160
Speaker 1: It.

1335
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 3: As an essay this past weekend.

1336
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 4: But against some of the lower level teams like Genoa,

1337
01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 4: like Manza for example, where they had a red card,

1338
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:00,600
Speaker 4: they have been better. And their face seeing a Torino

1339
01:08:00,680 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 4: team that might be the worst offensive team in Europe's

1340
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 4: top five league six point four expected goals created so

1341
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 4: far this season. The only team they've created over one

1342
01:08:10,400 --> 01:08:13,200
Speaker 4: expected goal against the Salernitana, who's the worst defensive team

1343
01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:18,200
Speaker 4: in the history of soccer. And I just don't really

1344
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 4: see a scenario how this match ends. Very high event

1345
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:24,599
Speaker 4: projected this north of minus two hundred, so both team

1346
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 4: to score no and Torino and Leche.

1347
01:08:26,760 --> 01:08:31,600
Speaker 1: Okay uh onto U league where Anthony passed and the

1348
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:33,599
Speaker 1: boon this league of BJ's passing on league.

1349
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,599
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, but you've got it's bizarro.

1350
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 1: I'm playing favorites. You've got uh you've got the floor. Yeah.

1351
01:08:41,280 --> 01:08:43,800
Speaker 2: Lelio Lander Fonseka is a really interesting case, right. So

1352
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:46,799
Speaker 2: they've had a good number of injuries to start the season.

1353
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:49,560
Speaker 2: They are finally starting to get healthy, they're starting to

1354
01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:51,960
Speaker 2: play better, and they're they're into that top four in France,

1355
01:08:52,000 --> 01:08:54,120
Speaker 2: and the French top four is very interesting at the

1356
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 2: moment because there's no team uh beyond PSG and Monaco.

1357
01:08:59,120 --> 01:09:01,599
Speaker 2: That's really been consistent. Everybody's been so up and down.

1358
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,960
Speaker 2: Of course, Leon and Lens are along at the bottom

1359
01:09:03,960 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 2: of the table, and so it's opened the door for

1360
01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:10,639
Speaker 2: these teams to kind of make a run like lele

1361
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 2: like nice, but I think Leo is really turning the

1362
01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 2: corner here. Like I said, they had a bad start

1363
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:19,720
Speaker 2: and they have been dominant ever since. And so they

1364
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:23,559
Speaker 2: have now, you know, good win against Breast at home.

1365
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:26,880
Speaker 2: They are the better team than Monico. I know Monico

1366
01:09:26,920 --> 01:09:29,320
Speaker 2: has been the best team thus far by points, but

1367
01:09:29,360 --> 01:09:31,479
Speaker 2: I think there's some regression in their numbers. Their defense

1368
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 2: is extremely overvalued. They've scored twenty three goals from fifteen

1369
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:38,960
Speaker 2: expected goals to start the season. Major regression indicator there.

1370
01:09:39,280 --> 01:09:41,000
Speaker 2: So I think this team's run really well to get

1371
01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,639
Speaker 2: to where they are. They're overvalued. LEOL plus one thirty

1372
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:44,240
Speaker 2: at home.

1373
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:50,599
Speaker 1: Okay, underdogs three legs. It'll spit out at a pretty

1374
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:54,840
Speaker 1: big number this time. You know, we've had some some

1375
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:57,960
Speaker 1: whoppers this season, so this one feels a little a

1376
01:09:58,040 --> 01:10:02,559
Speaker 1: little short. At a fifty two to one BJ you

1377
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:03,240
Speaker 1: can go first.

1378
01:10:03,840 --> 01:10:07,320
Speaker 4: Frosti Nun plus two five against Cagliari on the island.

1379
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 4: Do not understand why Cagliari is a home favorite here.

1380
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:15,479
Speaker 4: They have won the expected goal battle once in all

1381
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 4: of their matches this season. They've been one of the

1382
01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:22,720
Speaker 4: worst defensive teams in Syria. And Frosty Nun DeFrancisco took

1383
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:24,320
Speaker 4: over them, you know. He He's managed a lot of

1384
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:27,320
Speaker 4: top clubs throughout Italy Roma for a two year period.

1385
01:10:27,640 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 4: He's switched them over to a four to three three.

1386
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:32,879
Speaker 4: He's got them more playing, more attacking, more high pressing

1387
01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:35,559
Speaker 4: football and it's working. They have a positive expected goal

1388
01:10:35,600 --> 01:10:39,280
Speaker 4: differential through nine matches, like things are actually steering in

1389
01:10:39,320 --> 01:10:41,840
Speaker 4: the right direction. They're playing really well against the lower

1390
01:10:41,880 --> 01:10:44,519
Speaker 4: half the table competition, and I just don't understand why

1391
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:48,519
Speaker 4: Cagliari is a favorite here. So Frosti Nun plus two

1392
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:51,920
Speaker 4: oh five on the road on the island at Kagiliari.

1393
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:55,559
Speaker 2: As an Italian, I am absolutely shuddering at some of

1394
01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 2: those pronunciations, but we will let.

1395
01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 3: It's like, well, which which one did I get wrong?

1396
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:04,920
Speaker 2: Cagulary hold the g a little bit.

1397
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:11,880
Speaker 1: The way to pronounce Italian teams. BJ's when you think

1398
01:11:11,880 --> 01:11:14,439
Speaker 1: you're offending someone by not by being too dramatic and

1399
01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:17,120
Speaker 1: playing into it too much. You're not, like, that's just

1400
01:11:17,200 --> 01:11:21,040
Speaker 1: how to say it. Yeah, it's okay. I will never

1401
01:11:21,040 --> 01:11:25,960
Speaker 1: get mad at anybody for mispronouncing some of these team names.

1402
01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 3: It's well, that's what people tune into.

1403
01:11:27,439 --> 01:11:30,120
Speaker 4: Wonder goal for is to listen to me mispronounced name

1404
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:31,120
Speaker 4: after name after name.

1405
01:11:31,760 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 1: Bj bj is from Iowa. Yeah, it's he's pretty far

1406
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:41,920
Speaker 1: away from Hretty, far away.

1407
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:42,439
Speaker 3: From mid h.

1408
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:48,559
Speaker 1: For me. Easy one to pronounce, easy one to play

1409
01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 1: one of our favorite teams on the planet, Brentford there

1410
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:57,760
Speaker 1: plus four p forty taking on Chelsea. You just look

1411
01:11:57,760 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 1: at the two teams statistical portfolio and there's not that

1412
01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:03,759
Speaker 1: much of a difference here. We all know about Chelsea's

1413
01:12:03,760 --> 01:12:06,719
Speaker 1: woes in front of goals, Santy said. Maybe Cole Palmer

1414
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 1: helps to sort some of those out, But against this

1415
01:12:11,160 --> 01:12:15,439
Speaker 1: Brentford team, one that has punched up so well in

1416
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:18,320
Speaker 1: their first two plus seasons in the Premier League under

1417
01:12:18,439 --> 01:12:23,080
Speaker 1: Thomas Frank, this number is just way too wide. So

1418
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:28,040
Speaker 1: the Trusty Bees probably the clubhouse leader by quite a

1419
01:12:28,120 --> 01:12:31,120
Speaker 1: large margin. For being featured in this section of the show,

1420
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:33,720
Speaker 1: and we're back. We'll go right back to them here

1421
01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 1: Anthony your favorite dog.

1422
01:12:37,840 --> 01:12:40,320
Speaker 2: We were joking off air that it has more validity

1423
01:12:40,360 --> 01:12:43,880
Speaker 2: when I pick Everton or BJ picks Everton compared to

1424
01:12:43,920 --> 01:12:45,719
Speaker 2: when Leeboff does it because he does it every week.

1425
01:12:45,760 --> 01:12:48,160
Speaker 2: And so Everton plus two fifty.

1426
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:50,400
Speaker 1: Nice and easy. All right, out to our best bets

1427
01:12:50,439 --> 01:12:53,880
Speaker 1: for the Premier League. You can go first, Anthony Noddiam.

1428
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:57,120
Speaker 2: Forrest plus one and a half plus one fifteen at Liverpool.

1429
01:12:57,160 --> 01:12:58,960
Speaker 2: We talked about this game and how they're playing a

1430
01:12:59,000 --> 01:13:01,639
Speaker 2: different style, more low event. I think tyw Awani might

1431
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 2: be back here. That's a major upgrade for them, But

1432
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:07,559
Speaker 2: really it's just the zag energy from from this This

1433
01:13:07,680 --> 01:13:09,920
Speaker 2: team being very effective at keeping teams out of their

1434
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:15,320
Speaker 2: penalty area, conceding space in possession but not conceding dangerous possession,

1435
01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:17,800
Speaker 2: and being a league average defense as a result of

1436
01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:20,320
Speaker 2: that makes them a live dog here. So Forest plus

1437
01:13:20,360 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 2: one and a half.

1438
01:13:20,960 --> 01:13:24,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Brighton team total over two and

1439
01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:28,040
Speaker 1: a half at plus one thirty five. I think that stylistically,

1440
01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:32,160
Speaker 1: this matchup against Fulham is exactly what they like. They

1441
01:13:32,240 --> 01:13:35,760
Speaker 1: like these defenses that they can pick apart. I don't

1442
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:39,599
Speaker 1: think Fulham offers too much danger going the other way,

1443
01:13:40,080 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 1: but I'm still a little nervous with the Brighton defense,

1444
01:13:42,320 --> 01:13:46,160
Speaker 1: so I'd rather just isolate the attack with playing the

1445
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:48,840
Speaker 1: team total at plus numbers of team total over two

1446
01:13:48,840 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 1: and a half at plus thirty one thirty five BJ

1447
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:55,520
Speaker 1: take us home ever.

1448
01:13:55,439 --> 01:13:58,639
Speaker 3: Ten plus a half, so at twenty seven.

1449
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:02,160
Speaker 4: Like we've talked about many times already, west Ham really

1450
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:04,760
Speaker 4: should not be a home favorite here given how their

1451
01:14:04,840 --> 01:14:07,160
Speaker 4: defense is played. I mean, twelve goals allowed off eleven

1452
01:14:07,160 --> 01:14:10,920
Speaker 4: point six expected in their last five matches. They are

1453
01:14:10,960 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 4: conceding a lot of space outside. They're trying to be

1454
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:15,479
Speaker 4: very compact centrally, but they're also allowing a ton of

1455
01:14:15,479 --> 01:14:19,160
Speaker 4: crosses and that is how Everton creates most of their chances.

1456
01:14:19,200 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 4: You know, Everton has attempted the second most crosses of

1457
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:25,000
Speaker 4: anybody in the Premier League so far, completed the six most.

1458
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:27,439
Speaker 4: So Everton should have time and space on the ball

1459
01:14:27,479 --> 01:14:30,040
Speaker 4: to pick out those crosses, try to get guys inside

1460
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:31,640
Speaker 4: the box. And west Ham, as we've seen time and

1461
01:14:31,640 --> 01:14:35,200
Speaker 4: time again, continually tires out as matches go along when

1462
01:14:35,240 --> 01:14:37,639
Speaker 4: they have to defend without the ball for sixty seventy

1463
01:14:37,680 --> 01:14:40,679
Speaker 4: percent of the match. So west Ham's overvalid here projected

1464
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:42,679
Speaker 4: this match close to a pick them, so like Everton

1465
01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:44,639
Speaker 4: plus a half a minus one twenty five.

1466
01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:49,680
Speaker 1: Awesome. That wraps up this episode of Wonder Goal. For

1467
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:53,000
Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo and b J Cunningham and our sponsors Bet

1468
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:55,320
Speaker 1: three six five, we wish you all the best of

1469
01:14:55,400 --> 01:14:58,559
Speaker 1: luck with all your bets this weekend. Hopefully we will

1470
01:14:58,920 --> 01:15:02,080
Speaker 1: be celebrating nice three leg underdog win for the first

1471
01:15:02,080 --> 01:15:04,880
Speaker 1: time this season. We're getting towards the one year anniversary

1472
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:07,640
Speaker 1: of our last one, so hopefully.

1473
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:09,960
Speaker 3: Still still in the black too.

1474
01:15:09,960 --> 01:15:11,040
Speaker 1: We're still in the black, baby.

1475
01:15:11,160 --> 01:15:13,280
Speaker 2: Five years from now, we're going to be like, well,

1476
01:15:13,320 --> 01:15:15,160
Speaker 2: remember that one time we hit the two hundred.

1477
01:15:15,000 --> 01:15:18,800
Speaker 1: Will finally be in the red again on it Best

1478
01:15:18,880 --> 01:15:19,479
Speaker 1: luck to tell Your.

1479
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:31,559
Speaker 2: Best Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1480
01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:34,559
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1481
01:15:34,680 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1482
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:37,879
Speaker 2: Gambler