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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay, and

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Speaker 2: then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Balance of Power continues Back we go to Washington.

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Speaker 2: Yes they are back, Kaylee lines Joe Matthew and I

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Speaker 2: got to ask Joe Matthew and Kaylee the ride home

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Speaker 2: last night, you guys said it was absolutely uneventful.

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Speaker 4: Well last night early this morning it was more like

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Speaker 4: the wee hours of this morning, Charlie. But I will

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Speaker 4: say we got lucky though, Kaylee. The Milwaukee airport looked

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Speaker 4: like just to see of humanity. When we got there

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Speaker 4: was a lot of confusion. The local news reporters are

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Speaker 4: trying to get, you know, stories from people on waiting line,

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Speaker 4: and they were just hearing about this Microsoft thing that

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Speaker 4: went down.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, this crowd strikeoutage, everything that was going

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Speaker 5: down in the wee hours when Joe and I were

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Speaker 5: awake post Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention, still

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Speaker 5: feeling the ripple effects, and when we.

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Speaker 6: Landed here in Washington, DC.

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Speaker 5: That customer service line for American Airlines basically.

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Speaker 6: Stretched the length of the terminal.

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Speaker 5: Yes, I was glad to be getting off a plane,

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Speaker 5: not trying to.

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Speaker 6: For sure get on one.

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Speaker 4: Wish I could say, Rick and Jenie, you're back with

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Speaker 4: this in the nation's capital. But it depends you're on

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Speaker 4: your carrier and your timing and all that. Either way,

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Speaker 4: it's great to be back. That was quite a romp

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Speaker 4: in Milwaukee for the Republican Party Donald Trump holding forth

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Speaker 4: last night, and our special coverage went real late because

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Speaker 4: it was, in fact, the longest acceptance speech in the

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Speaker 4: history of political conventions. Kaylee, that is saying something. We

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Speaker 4: topped an hour and a half.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, of course the previous record also held by Donald Trump,

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Speaker 5: so he outdid himself in this ninety three minute speech.

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Speaker 5: And here's a little taste. What the former president and

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Speaker 5: now Republican nominee had to.

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Speaker 7: Say is a great people at great risk, I will

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Speaker 7: tell you, and pounced on top of me so that

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Speaker 7: I would be protected. There was blood pouring everywhere, and

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Speaker 7: yet in a certain way, I felt very safe because

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Speaker 7: I had God on my side.

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Speaker 4: Divine intervention is something we heard a lot about, not

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Speaker 4: only in the speech but across the course of the week.

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Speaker 4: And then it was an interesting sort of bifurcated approach

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Speaker 4: from Donald Trump last night. He started on the script,

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Speaker 4: told the story of the attempted assassination, and then it

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Speaker 4: turned into a stemwinder that sounded a lot more like

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Speaker 4: one of his rallies, even invoking the name of Hannibal Lecter.

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Speaker 4: Now still in Milwaukee, with a sense of the lasting

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Speaker 4: message from this four day affair is Bloomberg's and Marie

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Speaker 4: hor Dern, who was on the floor for Donald Trump's

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Speaker 4: address last night at the Pfizer form She's with us

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Speaker 4: right now in Milwaukee. What is the takeaway here? Days

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Speaker 4: of messaging hemory?

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Speaker 8: Why is the takeaway? The Republicans are walking away and

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Speaker 8: feeling like this was a convention that got their message

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Speaker 8: across at the very end when the first thirty minutes,

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Speaker 8: if you just tuned in from that hurt the former

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Speaker 8: president one trying to talk about unifying the country, or

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Speaker 8: that we could talk about the remainder of the speech,

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Speaker 8: which to your point, Joe really sounded like similar tropes

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Speaker 8: in what we hear in his campaign rallies, but also

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Speaker 8: he was living to tell the tale of this bullet

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Speaker 8: he dodged, and he took you behind the scenes. Would

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Speaker 8: have felt like he said, it's such a painful moment

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Speaker 8: that he's only going to tell it once. But for

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Speaker 8: many in the room, they were absolutely gripped, some even

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Speaker 8: into tears. And leading up to that, there was all

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Speaker 8: this momentum. It felt very much Chismo in the room

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Speaker 8: because you had, of course, not just kid Rock, but

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Speaker 8: also whole Colgan calling him a hero and ripping open

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Speaker 8: his shirt. So you had a lot of emotion in

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Speaker 8: the room about this and a lot of things Trump

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Speaker 8: was saying. You heard his supporters say, amen, Now what

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Speaker 8: does this mean and how is it communicated? Writ large

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Speaker 8: across the country, A lot of this will be slice

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Speaker 8: and dice, So you know, if you want to hear

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Speaker 8: about what it was like to potentially dodge a bullet,

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Speaker 8: I think a lot of people are going to be

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Speaker 8: tuning into those first thirty minutes. And in those thirty minutes,

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Speaker 8: he talked about how he wants to be a president

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Speaker 8: for all of America, and then, of course, throughout the speech,

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Speaker 8: though he went off script a lot of times, and

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Speaker 8: you can follow the prompter along with him on some

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Speaker 8: of the big screens, and you can tell when he

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Speaker 8: was off script and he meandered and maybe he was

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Speaker 8: losing people. Then that's the Donald Trump that the public

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Speaker 8: really knows. So you gotta got two sides of him yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And it begs the question, how many people, say

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Speaker 5: on the East Coast were up past midnight to watch

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Speaker 5: the entire speech, or how many dipped out early? We

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Speaker 5: were hearing ahead of the former president's re Mark Anne

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Speaker 5: Marie that he wasn't going to mention President Biden by name,

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Speaker 5: but a Biden.

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Speaker 6: Did slip in there. How should we look at that?

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Speaker 8: I think too Biden slipped in there because they had

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Speaker 8: apologized for saying his name and said he wasn't going

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Speaker 8: to do it again. I think part of this was

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Speaker 8: strategic because look at this split screen we have today

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Speaker 8: NBC reporting that Biden is talking to his family or

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Speaker 8: his family is discussing with him what a graceful exit

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Speaker 8: could potentially look like. He's under immense pressure from prominent

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Speaker 8: Democrats to step aside, and then Donald Trump is embraced

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Speaker 8: in this room after near death experience. You have Mark

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Speaker 8: Zuckerberg saying he doesn't want to get involved in politics,

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Speaker 8: but called that moment, that moment that Frank lun says

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Speaker 8: every voter is going to take into the voting booth

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Speaker 8: with them when he put up his hand and the

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Speaker 8: Secret Service surrounding him with blood across his face. Mark

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Speaker 8: Zuckerberg calling that badass. You have this moment, and they

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Speaker 8: kept talking about under the current administration, under the current administration,

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Speaker 8: And I think that was strategic because if Joe Biden

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Speaker 8: does decide to step aside, one of the most likely candidates,

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Speaker 8: obviously to the top of the ticket is Vice President

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Speaker 8: Kamala Harris. So I think there was a strategic moment

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Speaker 8: for them to potentially message if this were to happen,

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Speaker 8: how the Republicans might message into November.

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Speaker 4: Anne Marie, thank you, Bloomberg's and Marie Hordern with us

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Speaker 4: live from Milwaukee. Great to see you this day after,

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Speaker 4: Anne Marie, as the Trump road Show begins now and

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Speaker 4: we turn our attention back to what we were just discussing,

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Speaker 4: and that's the future of Joe Biden's political career, Anne Marie,

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Speaker 4: referring to I think you might have as well, Kayleie.

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Speaker 4: This story from Jordan Fabian Biden More committed than ever,

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Speaker 4: as allies see exit imminent, it doesn't feel like something

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Speaker 4: is about to happen this weekend, even with additional calls

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Speaker 4: now for him to drop out of the race.

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Speaker 5: Well, especially if you listen to Jen O'Malley Jeno Malle

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Speaker 5: Dylan on Morning Joe earlier today. She's, of course the

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Speaker 5: chairwoman of the campaign, and this is what she had

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Speaker 5: to say about Joe Biden's reelection effort.

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Speaker 9: We are about to head into our convention. We're about

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Speaker 9: to head into the delegates of this party who are

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Speaker 9: there for Joe Biden. Those delegates are going to nominate

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Speaker 9: the president as the candidate moving forward and as our nominee,

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Speaker 9: and they're staying with the president. You have heard from

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Speaker 9: the President directly time and again. He is in this

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Speaker 9: race to win, and he is our nominee, and he's

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Speaker 9: going to be our president for a second term.

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Speaker 5: Of course, not all Democrats are thrilled with that idea,

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Speaker 5: and Joe, we're about to speak with one of them.

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Speaker 4: One of the first actually to call for President Biden

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Speaker 4: to withdraw from the race. Here as a Democratic House

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Speaker 4: candidate in Colorado, Adam Frish Kaylee. This is interesting. He

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Speaker 4: was going to be running against Lauren Bobert until she

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Speaker 4: decided to go to a different district that would be

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Speaker 4: easier for her to win. So now we have these

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Speaker 4: tandem storylines and yet another Democratic House candidate just obviously

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Speaker 4: worried about the down ballot impact.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, of course, this is just one voice in what

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Speaker 5: is a growing course of Democrats now a third Democratic Senator,

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Speaker 5: for other members of the Democratic Caucus in the House,

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Speaker 5: including members of the Hispanic Caucus, the Black Caucus, Progressive Caucus.

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Speaker 5: Today it does feel like perhaps the dam has finally broken.

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Speaker 4: Let's bring him in. Adam Frish, Democratic House candidate from

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Speaker 4: Colorado's third district. Mister Fish, it's great to have you

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Speaker 4: with us here on Bloomberg's TV and radio. This was,

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Speaker 4: I believe, right before the fourth or July that you

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Speaker 4: made your call for Joe Biden to drop out, and

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Speaker 4: that call has grown a lot louder since then. We're

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Speaker 4: hearing from the likes, at least through media leaks of

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Speaker 4: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakim Jeffreys, more voices now from

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Speaker 4: the Senate. But it seems like the more calls are made,

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Speaker 4: the more dug in Joe Biden gets does he need

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Speaker 4: space to make up his mind?

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Speaker 3: Listen, it is great to be here with you, you know.

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Speaker 10: I woke up Friday morning after that disastrous debate, which

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Speaker 10: I certainly don't think and most of the country doesn't think,

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Speaker 10: was a one bad night incident in southwestern Colorado. And

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Speaker 10: for every one person I speak to in DC, I

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Speaker 10: speak to a good four or five hundred people in

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Speaker 10: this district bigger than the state of Pennsylvania. I've driven

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Speaker 10: fifty eight thousand miles in the past couple of years,

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Speaker 10: you know, and I would say the vast majority of

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Speaker 10: people boots on the ground ten dollars donors, Independence, Republicans

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Speaker 10: and Democrats. I speak to everybody in our district, and

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Speaker 10: they saw the writing on the wall back then, and

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Speaker 10: they just didn't think this was good for the country.

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Speaker 10: And so I spent a couple more days driving around

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Speaker 10: our district, which I will make the cases the most

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Speaker 10: beautiful district of the four hundred and thirty five in

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Speaker 10: western and southern Colorado. Had a conversation with a couple

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Speaker 10: of people, and yes, we came out July second, middle

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Speaker 10: of the day on Tuesday, and later on that evening

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Speaker 10: we had an opbed in the Washington Post calling for

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Speaker 10: the president too kind of hand passed the baton, pass

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Speaker 10: the torch.

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Speaker 5: Well, as you compete for this district against Jeff heard,

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Speaker 5: we obviously have asked him to join the program as well, sir.

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Speaker 6: We appreciate you doing so today.

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Speaker 5: It's also worth keeping in mind that it's one thing

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Speaker 5: to call for President Biden to leave the race. It's

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Speaker 5: another to figure out what happens if he does. Are

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Speaker 5: you supportive of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the top

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Speaker 5: of the ticket, or does this need to be an

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Speaker 5: open convention?

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Speaker 10: You know, open convention, I suggested two years ago, I

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Speaker 10: was one of the seventy five percent of the people

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Speaker 10: in the country, regardless of party or an affiliation, that

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Speaker 10: did not want to rematch. A year ago, I again

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Speaker 10: emphasized that we need to figure out how to open

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Speaker 10: up and have listen. I am pro competition, and I

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Speaker 10: think that's really important. And it's certainly disheartening that until

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Speaker 10: a couple months ago there was one party that was

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Speaker 10: being accused of a cult party, but that cult party,

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Speaker 10: so to speak, actually had a competitive multi month spicy

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Speaker 10: and sporty, and I would say good for the country

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Speaker 10: competitive primary, and what did the Democratic machine do? They

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Speaker 10: decided to shut down Florida's primary and a bunch of

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Speaker 10: other states. I'm not sure why they wanted to do that.

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Speaker 10: It wasn't good for the party, but again, it wasn't

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Speaker 10: good for the country, and I'm focused on that. A

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Speaker 10: year ago, I said, let's just see who's on the

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Speaker 10: top of the ticket by the time the convention rolls around.

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Speaker 10: And I got a lot of grief from a lot

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Speaker 10: of people, And you know, I think sometimes the fruition

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Speaker 10: is playing out. You don't always want to be right.

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Speaker 10: But I feel pretty confident that we're going to have

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Speaker 10: someone else in the Chicago convention at the end, whether

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Speaker 10: it's the vice president, whether it's the other five or

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Speaker 10: six senators or governors that you guys are all been bantering.

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Speaker 3: About for the past year.

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Speaker 10: I'm very of the mind that there is a deep

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Speaker 10: and diverse bench, and I think we need to figure

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Speaker 10: out how to pass that torch.

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Speaker 3: I am not for.

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Speaker 10: Just anointing anybody, whether it's the vice president, which would

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Speaker 10: be the most likely candidate, or someone else.

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Speaker 3: I think there's still enough time.

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Speaker 10: I'llah James Carvell and some other people to have some

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Speaker 10: type of things having a conversation leading into Chicago and

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Speaker 10: go on from there. I'm not going to Chicago again.

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Speaker 10: I spend my time talking to the voters in our district. Democrats,

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Speaker 10: Independence and Republican building what I've been calling a pro

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Speaker 10: normal party coalition for a long time.

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Speaker 4: Well, fourteen million people, of course, voted for the Biden

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Speaker 4: Harris ticket in the primaries, and there are a lot

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Speaker 4: of folks in the Democratic Party who say, what are

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Speaker 4: we talking about here? Joe Biden has a vice president

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Speaker 4: for this very reason. Does she not deserve the first

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Speaker 4: writer of refusal on this? As the vice president of

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Speaker 4: the United States? If Joe Biden stepped down now, for instance,

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Speaker 4: she'd have the job.

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Speaker 10: So I think you asked three questions. I'm not asking

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Speaker 10: for the president to resign. I am asking for him

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Speaker 10: to stop his campaign and try to get a competitive

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Speaker 10: albeit short.

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Speaker 3: And understand well. Two.

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Speaker 10: You know, I just think it's beyond incrediblius to say

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Speaker 10: that it's Joe Brian Biden of now was running during

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Speaker 10: when there was supposed to be a real primary, he

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Speaker 10: would not have received fourteen million. He would have come

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Speaker 10: in fourth, or fifth or sixth.

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Speaker 3: I just think that is. I think that's a slap

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Speaker 3: in the face to.

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Speaker 10: The Democratic voters to say that the Joe Biden now

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Speaker 10: where Joe Biden was a year ago, and I just

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Speaker 10: don't buy that. I fully support the vice president deserves

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Speaker 10: the ability to be one of a handful of people.

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Speaker 10: How those other people besides the Vice president get put

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Speaker 10: into some type of competitive conversation that's way above my

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Speaker 10: pay grade.

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Speaker 3: I'm not a political analyst. I'm just a candidate, a father.

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Speaker 10: And a husband, a small businessmanner, trying to do the

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Speaker 10: thing for the country.

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Speaker 5: Well, you are a candidate trying to trip turn what

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Speaker 5: is a red seat Lauren Bobert's seat currently blue? Do

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Speaker 5: you believe that you can do that even if Biden

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Speaker 5: remains at the top of the ticket.

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Speaker 10: Of course, from day one, when I entered this race

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Speaker 10: in February of twenty two, you know, the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 10: the Republican Party, the political policy wants were saying that

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Speaker 10: we were going to lose by forty thousand votes given

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Speaker 10: the registration and what the what the voting map looks like.

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Speaker 10: And instead of losing by forty thousand votes, we lost

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Speaker 10: by fewer than five hundred and fifty we're the closest

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Speaker 10: race in the country. In December, Representative Bobart did some polling,

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Speaker 10: and we know what was asked because we have those questions,

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Speaker 10: we don't know what the results were. Yeah, obviously, I

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Speaker 10: believe the first person in twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Years to pack up.

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Speaker 5: All right, well sir, we'll be watching your race. Thank

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Speaker 5: you for joining us here on Bloomberg. Adam Frisch from Colorado.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can

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Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 2: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 7: That means two things in day one, right, Drill, Baby, Drill,

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Speaker 7: and close our borders.

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Speaker 4: Donald J. Trump, the former president, speaking last night accepting

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Speaker 4: the Republican nomination in Milwaukee. We were there for it

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Speaker 4: and brought it to you, of course, live on our

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Speaker 4: special coverage here on Bloomberg TV and radio. The question

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Speaker 4: is where do we go from here in a race

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Speaker 4: that is still shrouded in uncertainty, Not so much about

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Speaker 4: the Republican side, but of course, what is happening with

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden. I'm alongside Kaylee Lines, Joe Matthew here back

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Speaker 4: in Washington, d C. We're peeking out of one eye

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Speaker 4: and somewhat punched drunk after a very night with very

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Speaker 4: little sleep here, but we're glad we could be here

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Speaker 4: to dissect all of this today. So glad there's nowhere

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Speaker 4: else we would rather be. It's really fascinating to think

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Speaker 4: that a month from now we'll be in Chicago and

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Speaker 4: we don't know who the nominee is going to be.

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Speaker 5: Well, Joe Biden would tell you still it's going to

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Speaker 5: be him, and those close to him, including in his

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Speaker 5: campaign today, are saying that remains the plan. But of

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Speaker 5: course we have this growing list of Democrats, sitting lawmakers,

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Speaker 5: pcuting candidates as well, like Godham for issue. We just

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Speaker 5: spoke with now three senators, former members of the House.

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Speaker 5: And it's only a little afternoon on this Friday, Joe,

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Speaker 5: and the question is whether or not this reelection effort

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Speaker 5: is going to be able to last the weekend.

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Speaker 4: It could be a significant weekend. Obviously, he's still recovering

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Speaker 4: from COVID. Is the matter of recovering if he is

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Speaker 4: going to be exiting the race as the matter of

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Speaker 4: stagecraft to some extent, someone who is obviously trying to

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Speaker 4: preserve a legacy here to write the perfect speech, to

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Speaker 4: have the right moment, choose the venue, talk to the family, Caley,

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Speaker 4: these are all things that could take some time.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, we just got a headline from the President

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Speaker 5: who says he will be returning to the campaign trail

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Speaker 5: next week. Of course returning because he's currently isolating in

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Speaker 5: Delaware to your point, recovering from COVID, but he says

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Speaker 5: he's getting back on the wagon, pushing ahead with this

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Speaker 5: reelection effort.

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Speaker 4: It's part of our conversation with Christopher Smart, the managing

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Speaker 4: partner at Arbroth Group and former Special Assistant to the

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Speaker 4: President for International Economics under the Biden administration, with the

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Speaker 4: idea of a truck trade and how elusive or real

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Speaker 4: that may be. Christopher, it's great to have you on

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Welcome. We talk about even the

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Speaker 4: JD trade. Kaylee, I think it was the first reference

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Speaker 4: I heard from Abigail while we were in Milwaukee. Rising stocks,

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Speaker 4: as you point out in your research, falling treasuries, weeker

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Speaker 4: dollar drill, baby drill. Is this something real that investors

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Speaker 4: can get their arms around or something that will be

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Speaker 4: fleeting this summer.

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Speaker 11: I think it's hard to really get your arms around it.

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Speaker 11: I mean, as you just described, we've lived it's really

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Speaker 11: three weeks now since the presidential debate, and you think

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Speaker 11: of all of the assumptions we had going into that

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Speaker 11: debate and all of the ones that have changed and

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Speaker 11: shifted today as we look through the weekend and into

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Speaker 11: next week, and as you say, a month away from

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Speaker 11: the Democratic Convention, the Trump trade that I think people

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Speaker 11: were talking about coming into view, I guess my thinking

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Speaker 11: is that a lot of that has much more to

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Speaker 11: do with a strong economy, a decent earning season, and

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Speaker 11: a FED that looks likely to be cutting rates maybe

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Speaker 11: at the next meeting and continue to cut through next year.

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Speaker 11: That gives you a big boost to the stock market.

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Speaker 11: It gives you a steeper a steeper treasury curve, and

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Speaker 11: a weaker dollar. A lot of those things you know

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Speaker 11: would be happening with or without rising prospects for President

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Speaker 11: Trump coming back into office. It's a long time between.

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Speaker 3: Now and the election.

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Speaker 12: A lot could change.

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Speaker 11: But I guess even if you believe that he's going

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Speaker 11: to be the next president. There's a lot of uncertainty

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Speaker 11: between the rhetoric we heard last night and the bills

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Speaker 11: he might actually sign once he gets back into the

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Speaker 11: Oval Office.

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Speaker 5: Well, yeah, Christopher, let's talk more about the rhetoric that

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Speaker 5: we heard last night. He says that he is going

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Speaker 5: to cut taxes even further after delivering what he incorationally

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Speaker 5: described as the largest tax cut in the country's history.

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Speaker 5: He talked about immediately getting rid of inflation and lowering

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Speaker 5: interest rates, something that isn't within the power of the presidents,

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Speaker 5: within the power of Federal Reserve. What actually is something

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Speaker 5: that Donald Trump could immediately deliver on just from the

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Speaker 5: Oval Office, assuming that he could take it in January

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Speaker 5: of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 11: Well, I think it's really the clip that you played

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Speaker 11: at the beginning of this segment, you know, where he

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Speaker 11: said on day one, you know, drill, baby, drill, and

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Speaker 11: we're gonna we're going to close the border. That I

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Speaker 11: think a lot of that is within his purview. Although

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Speaker 11: you know you you also know that there's been a

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Speaker 11: lot of increase in oil production in the US in

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Speaker 11: the last few years under the Biden administration.

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Speaker 12: Uh, and there's been a lot of more more restrictions

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Speaker 12: imposed on border crossings.

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Speaker 11: But having said all of that, there are some fundamental

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Speaker 11: contradictions in the things that he is promising. He would

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Speaker 11: like to cut taxes some more, but also talks about,

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Speaker 11: you know, bringing the deficit, the debt under control. Not

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Speaker 11: a lot of talk about that, but he did mention

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Speaker 11: that he keeps talking. He and his advisors keep talking

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Speaker 11: about a weeker dollar, which you know, if you also

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Speaker 11: believe you're going to have a strong economy and strong

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Speaker 11: demand in the US, and that's that's probably not going

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Speaker 11: to happen. And the third part of what he talks

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Speaker 11: about repeatedly is of course higher tariffs, which is likely

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Speaker 11: to lead to higher interest rates or at least a

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Speaker 11: slower fed cutting cycle, which again will make the dollar stronger.

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Speaker 11: So there are a lot of different moving parts in

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Speaker 11: what he's promised that you know, certainly my economics textbooks

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Speaker 11: told me tell me that things work a little bit differently.

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Speaker 12: Well.

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Speaker 4: Points just to crypto, which loves the idea, I guess

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Speaker 4: of a Donald Trump presidency. We've been watching bitcoin enjoy

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Speaker 4: the ride here since the tide seem to have turned

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Speaker 4: after the debate, Donald Trump says he wants to be

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Speaker 4: the crypto president, the first American crypto president. But what

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Speaker 4: does that mean beyond blocking regulations? If anything, it's.

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Speaker 12: A great question.

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Speaker 11: I think it actually interesting if you read the Republican platform,

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Speaker 11: which is mercifully reads like a long tweet from President

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Speaker 11: Trump in terms of capitalization and punctuation.

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Speaker 12: But there are.

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Speaker 11: Three very specific economic priorities, or at least industrial policy elements.

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Speaker 11: One is space, one is artificial intelligence, and one is crypto.

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Speaker 11: You might think Elon Musk has something to do with it,

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Speaker 11: but I don't know if that's true or not. But

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Speaker 11: in any case, it's a very interesting pivot from the

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Speaker 11: President who had said bitcoin is a scam earlier on.

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Speaker 11: It seems like he has embraced that. Having said that,

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Speaker 11: he is also not embracing the idea of a central

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Speaker 11: bank digital currency of the Fed issuing its own digital dollars.

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Speaker 11: So there's a lot of mixed messages going on here.

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Speaker 11: But I know that a lot of the crypto industry

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Speaker 11: is hoping that at least they will be slower or

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Speaker 11: less regulation headed their way under a Republican White House

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Speaker 11: than they currently fear.

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Speaker 12: Right now, with Democrats in charge.

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Speaker 5: Well, as you mentioned the FED when it comes to

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Speaker 5: the response ability to issue a digital dollar CBDC, which

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Speaker 5: of course the Fed maintains they are nowhere close to

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Speaker 5: realistically doing. It also raises the question of how you

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Speaker 5: think Donald Trump will approach the FED. Knowing we just

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Speaker 5: saw Jerome Palell testifying before the House and the Senate

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Speaker 5: were lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, and making

439
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Speaker 5: a big heyday about FED independence.

440
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 6: He told our colleagues in a Bloomberg.

441
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 5: Business Week interview that was published earlier this week that

442
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 5: he would allow Jerome Powell to stay out his term

443
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 5: as FED chair through twenty twenty six. How do you

444
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 5: think he really is likely to approach the central Bank?

445
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 12: Well, it was a very interesting interview.

446
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 11: It was, if anything, a kinder and gentler economic policy.

447
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 11: Then he talks about sometimes to larger crowds. I think,

448
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 11: you know, as long as the Fed is cutting rates,

449
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 11: which it seems likely to do next year, it would

450
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 11: be hard for him to start complaining too much about

451
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 11: Jerome Powell about the direction of the FED. You know,

452
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 11: if you do get a blowback and tariffs lead to inflation,

453
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 11: less immigration leads to inflation and the FED Reversu's course,

454
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 11: then I think you could come into a clash of wills,

455
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 11: and then the president would have to figure out, you know,

456
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 11: what is in it with what is within his legal

457
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 11: rights to do about a sitting FED chair, and then

458
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 11: what that would do to markets and to confidence in

459
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 11: monetary policy. So that would be a big change of things.

460
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 11: I think right now, if your base case is rates

461
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 11: are headed down in any case, then it seems unlikely

462
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 11: he needs to pick this fight and allow J. Powell

463
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 11: to serve out his term through twenty twenty six.

464
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 4: Well, Christopher Smart, when you connect all the dots here,

465
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 4: at least the elements that we have that I guess

466
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 4: we're going to call trump banomics now, from the tariffs

467
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 4: to the making permanent of the Trump tax cuts, increased

468
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 4: defense spending. Will this be the administration that resumes the

469
00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 4: rise in prices? This will be the inflationary president see

470
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 4: of Donald Trump.

471
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 12: You know, I think that's a big question.

472
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 11: I think that's the thing we need to you know,

473
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 11: he has promised obviously to bring down inflation and to

474
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 11: do it by drilling for more oil. Having said that,

475
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 11: as you say, and as I think others have said

476
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 11: a lot of these other elements in terms of tariffs, limiting, immigration, deregulation,

477
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 11: a lot of these things feel a little bit more inflationary.

478
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 11: Maybe not so much in the deregulation front, but a

479
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 11: lot of these things do feel inflationary. That combined with

480
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 11: a lot of these global forces that I think I

481
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,719
Speaker 11: and others believe will keep inflationary pressures running hotter than

482
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 11: they did before. COVID, government spending, defense, supply chain.

483
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 12: Reorganization, a lot of those things.

484
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 11: So I think, you know, markets are going to start

485
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 11: looking at that, and that's why it's unlikely that you're

486
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 11: the long end of the curve is going to come

487
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 11: down very much.

488
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 12: And this steepening trade makes sense.

489
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 11: Frankly, it makes sense regardless of the outcome of the

490
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 11: presidential election.

491
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 5: All right, Well, of course, it'll be another four months

492
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 5: or so before we know that outcome. Christopher Smart, thank

493
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 5: you so much for joining us. Always appreciate your time.

494
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 5: He is managing partner at ab Roath Group and former

495
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 5: Special Assistant to the President for International Economics under the

496
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 5: Obama administration. Of course, when Joe Biden was Vice president.

497
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 5: Interesting to consider how the markets should be looking at

498
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 5: this race, especially looking at the language of saying jd Vance,

499
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 5: who during his acceptance speech talked about not being for

500
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 5: Wall Street or big business, and it makes us question

501
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 5: how Wall Street and big business are watching the Republican ticket.

502
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 4: I feel like those two might need to talk about

503
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 4: some of these things.

504
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: Yes, Indeed, your listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

505
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car

506
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: Play and then broun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.

507
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

508
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

509
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 5: Back We are from Milwaukee, Charlie and lucky we are

510
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: to be so it might be one of the only

511
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 5: flights that got off basically without a hitch this morning

512
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 5: in the aftermass four people.

513
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 4: I hope they got off the ground. Yeah, it was

514
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 4: the same humanity.

515
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 5: The finger's crossed well and it was a sea of

516
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 5: humanity in Milwaukee this week as tens of thousands gathered

517
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 5: for the Republican National Convention, it was quite a show

518
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 5: Republicans really trying to play up unity. Certainly, we saw

519
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 5: a little bit of that in Donald Trump's speech last night.

520
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 5: We saw a lot else in Donald Trump's ninety three

521
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 5: minute long speech as well. There were a few off

522
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 5: teleprompter moments, to say the least. But of course, as

523
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,719
Speaker 5: we were watching Donald Trump on the stage, we were

524
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 5: also all paying attention to Twitter and the newswires to

525
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,880
Speaker 5: see how many more it was going to be. When

526
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 5: we're counting the Democrats who have now called for Joe

527
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 5: Biden to abandon his re election effort, I believe we're

528
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 5: now at nine in a twenty four hour period, and

529
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 5: that's an addition to what the well more than a

530
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 5: dozen leads.

531
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 4: Well sure, and it's not just the numbers too, it's

532
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 4: the names. In this case Zoelofren, we're hearing on the

533
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 4: heels of Adam Schiff. Then there was reporting, of course

534
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 4: about how King Jeffreys, Chuck Schumer and behind it all

535
00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 4: maybe Nancy Pelosi, which is kind of interesting to think

536
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 4: about pulling the strings. Wendy Benjaminson is with us. She's

537
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 4: got a view of all this stuff behind the scenes

538
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 4: as Bloomberg's Washington senior editor. Great to see you, Wendy.

539
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 4: We've got a lot to catch up on after the

540
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 4: Republican National Convention, and I really do want your take

541
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 4: on Donald Trump. Hulk Hogan and Dana White. But this

542
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 4: is breaking before our eyes, and the campaign just issued

543
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 4: a statement saying he's going back on the trail next

544
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 4: week after he recovers from COVID. Is this just a

545
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 4: matter of sounding sure of yourself till you're not.

546
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 13: I think that's exactly what's going on. And one of

547
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 13: my smart colleagues said he didn't say he would be

548
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 13: campaigning for himself next week, that he would be resuming

549
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 13: the campaign trail. I mean, the guy just can't catch

550
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 13: a break this week, right with the COVID. So this

551
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 13: whole time, they were supposed to be counter programming against

552
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 13: this very macho, very full you show from Donald Trump,

553
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 13: as you mentioned with Hulk Cogan and all that. You know,

554
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 13: he's an eighty one year old sick man. Has to

555
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 13: go home, you know, and all that's very sad. So

556
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 13: we'll see, we'll see this weekend. I think there's a

557
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 13: lot of very difficult conversations happening. There's a lot of

558
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 13: family talk happening, and advisors who may still be urging

559
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 13: him to stay In general. Mally Dylan was on MSNBC

560
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 13: this morning saying that you know, she was still fully

561
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 13: confident that he would be reelected, so we'll see.

562
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 5: Well, it really is just a matter of time. Of course,

563
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 5: what may make this so difficult for the president is

564
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 5: the amount of time that he is dedicated in his

565
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 5: life to public service. We're talking decades, frankly half a century.

566
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 5: As Jade Vance pointed out in his acceptance speech at

567
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 5: the RNC this past week, he has been a public

568
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 5: servant for the majority of his life. And that's probably

569
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 5: a hard way to go out as members of your

570
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 5: own party are calling for you to do so. But

571
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 5: there's a clock running, Wendy. We're done with one convention,

572
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 5: another is coming up. Realistically, how much time does Biden

573
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 5: have to make this decision?

574
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 10: Days?

575
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 13: I mean, I think it's really days. The DNC has

576
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 13: already put off its plan to do the virtual nomination

577
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 13: to beat the ballot laws, the ballot deadlines that are

578
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 13: going on across the country where ballots will be printed.

579
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 13: So they've put that off at the behest of members

580
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 13: of Congress who want Biden to step out of the race.

581
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 13: And while it is a very very sad tableau to

582
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 13: think of this guy who has given his entire life

583
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 13: to public service to being pushed off the stage However,

584
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 13: the Biden campaign was showing us for months and months

585
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 13: and months telling us everything was fine, telling us that

586
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 13: it was going to be okay, while they kept him

587
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 13: to very scripted events. And then in the first unscripted event,

588
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 13: the debate, you know, everyone saw what was going on,

589
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 13: and you know, it's a choice that they apparently have made.

590
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 4: It sounds like you see this says very likely, certainly

591
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 4: within the realm, if that's the case, does Joe Biden

592
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: actually have to put the next ticket together? Is that

593
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 4: part of the calculation right now, or is it, Hey,

594
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 4: I'm out, you guys have a good time in Chicago.

595
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: Yeah.

596
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 13: No, I don't think it's going to be like that.

597
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 13: I think he wants to say in it. I think

598
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 13: the reason that we've seen reporting that he's been asking

599
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 13: for polling that shows how Kamala Harris does against Trump

600
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 13: is very telling. On the other hand, on the terminal

601
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 13: now as a story, the top donors are saying, don't

602
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 13: just give it to Kamala Harris. Let's have a real

603
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 13: conversation at the convention about who it could be. And

604
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 13: that would be the first open convention certainly in my lifetime.

605
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 13: And I think we have to go back to the

606
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 13: fifties or even.

607
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 4: Before Chicago, though, come on, movie, no, no one would.

608
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 13: But so I think Biden very much wants to be

609
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 13: the elder statesman who picks his successor whether that's still

610
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 13: in his hands by August nineteenth, I don't know, all.

611
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 5: Right, Wendy Benjaminson here counting down the days potentially.

612
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 4: We never got to hold. Yeah, we'll follow up on that.

613
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 6: Matter, to do that with our political panel next.

614
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 5: Wendy, thank you, senior Washington editor for us here at Bloomberg.

615
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 6: We appreciate the time.

616
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 5: But of course we're having this conversation less than twenty

617
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 5: four hours after Hulk Cogan, Kid Rock White, and Donald

618
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 5: Trump all shared the stage in Milwaukee last night. So

619
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 5: on that note, let's bring in our political panel. Joana

620
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 5: Wartel is with us. She is Democratic strategist and partner

621
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 5: at Art Initiatives. And Lauren Tomlinson, Republican strategist and president

622
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 5: at Claffy Communications. So Lauren, obviously, Donald Trump spoke last night,

623
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 5: and he did so at length. He talked for ninety

624
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 5: three minutes about what he'd like to see in a

625
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 5: second term, his thoughts on Holt Hogan and his.

626
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 6: Shirt ripping that we all saw on the stage.

627
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 5: He had a lot to say, and yet we just

628
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 5: spent the first nine minutes of this hour talking instead

629
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 5: about Joe Biden. Is this capping what was a good

630
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,719
Speaker 5: week for Donald Trump in a negative way in that

631
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 5: he doesn't seem to be making as much noise as

632
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 5: the person that at least is understood now at this

633
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 5: time he's up against in November.

634
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 6: No, I think this is great.

635
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 14: The longer that the media is focused on Joe Biden

636
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 14: and his illness and the calls for Democrats for him

637
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 14: to step down, and his inability for people to serve

638
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 14: and questioning his leadership. I mean, that's that's a campaign ad.

639
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 14: I mean, how can you know? So much free advertising there?

640
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 14: So I think the fear actually was that with all

641
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 14: of this programming coming out of the RNC convention, that

642
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 14: we would lose momentum on that negative news cycle. However,

643
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 14: because of the Democrats, what I think is, you know,

644
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 14: a forced coup is essentially happening right now with all

645
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 14: of the leagues coming out. They decided that they want

646
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 14: him to resign this weekend, and they're going to force

647
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 14: him to resign this weekend. I think that this is

648
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 14: actually a great thing, because we switched right back from

649
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 14: a pretty positive message of unity and everyday Americans from

650
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 14: the RNC all week, and then we go straight back

651
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 14: into the negative aspects of Joe Biden's campaign.

652
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: Janey, I'd love your take on what we saw on

653
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 4: the stage last night in Milwaukee, with questions about unity

654
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 4: and how big the tent is for Republicans. It was

655
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 4: one macho man after another. Tucker Carlson was up there,

656
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 4: Hulk Hogan himself. He ripped off his shirt as everyone's describing,

657
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 4: and crowd went wild. That Dana White, the guy behind

658
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 4: the UFC thing, and he was the one who introduced

659
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 4: Joe Biden to a chant of fight, Fight, Fight, Sorry,

660
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, Thank you, Kayley. I'll sleep at some point

661
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 4: this weekend. I guess the question is, Jenny, what's the

662
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 4: appeal to suburban women who were told will likely choose

663
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 4: the next president of the United States. Was there an

664
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 4: opportunity missed?

665
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 15: Well, certainly, when you think about a big tent, that's

666
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 15: not exactly what you saw in that stage, right You

667
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 15: saw the patriarchy on display, where you saw men who

668
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 15: do not represent the diverse coalition of voters that you're

669
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 15: going to need to win this election on stage and listen,

670
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 15: what we saw on the in former President Trump's speech

671
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 15: was just more of this rhetoric that is empty and

672
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 15: that does not lay out a plan for America. And

673
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 15: so that contrast between what he's laying out as his

674
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 15: as his plan for his you know, for his next

675
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 15: presidency should he be elected, and Donald and Joe Biden

676
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 15: and Vice President Harris's vision for America, there's a clear

677
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 15: contrast there. And so no no place was that more

678
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 15: evident than at the convention and during the President's former

679
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 15: President Trump's very very lengthy speech. And in terms of unifying,

680
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 15: I mean, we can see from former President Trump's track

681
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 15: record on the campaign trail and as president of the

682
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 15: United States in his first term that there is not

683
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 15: he does not have the ability to be a unifying figure.

684
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 15: There is policies, his rhetoric, those he has brought in

685
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 15: as allies to his campaign and to his administration are

686
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 15: not unifying figures. There are folks who sow division. There

687
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 15: are folks whose beliefs and views and policies are tremendously

688
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 15: unpopular with the American people. Suburban women who are who

689
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 15: who are very much concerned, as polls show, with reproductive

690
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 15: freedom and reproductive justice. We saw that former President Trump

691
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 15: and Senator Vance don't have a plan that supports women's

692
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 15: bodily autonomy and ability to make decisions about their bodies.

693
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 15: It does just the opposite.

694
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 5: Well, Janey, it's a great point, and this is a

695
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 5: conversation we were having during our special coverage last night.

696
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 5: The idea that the messaging from this convention, in many

697
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 5: of the figures that spoke didn't as necessarily seemed to

698
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 5: be reaching out to say suburban women or suburban women

699
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 5: rather plural. If you listen to Jade Vance, he kept

700
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 5: talking about the working man. Obviously, as Joe and I

701
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 5: have described, a lot of the people who were on

702
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 5: that stage last night were also men. Lauren, is this

703
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 5: a mistake for the Trump Vance campaign and the Republican

704
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 5: Party as a whole. Are they just abandoning these women

705
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 5: in the suburbs.

706
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 14: I think that there's been a decision to not do

707
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 14: as much outreach to suburban women this time around. I

708
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 14: think that over the past four years, suburban women who

709
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 14: were a huge opportunity in twenty twenty considered swing voters.

710
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 12: You know, were.

711
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 14: Economically conservative but socially liberal on things. They didn't like

712
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 14: the way that Trump spoke. You know, there was a

713
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 14: bunch of pulling that showed that they could still be persuaded.

714
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 14: They have moved more solidly into the Democratic camp over

715
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 14: the past four years. So I think what you're seeing

716
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 14: is a new Republican Party and a new strategy for outreach.

717
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 14: They're not going after college educated suburban women anymore because

718
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 14: they think that those people are basically lost to them.

719
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 14: There's more opportunity with black Americans, Hispanics, working class Americans

720
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 14: than there are in some of the college educated blocks.

721
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 4: Spending time with our great panel on this Friday, after

722
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 4: Donald Trump's acceptance speech in Milwaukee, Jane Wartel, Democratic strategist

723
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 4: and Republican strategist Lauren Tomlinson Janey, It's going to be

724
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 4: an interesting weekend, it seems for Joe Biden and his family.

725
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 4: We've had reporting here just in the last forty eight

726
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 4: hours that in fact, a decision could be made this weekend.

727
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 4: I know now he says that he's going back on

728
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 4: the campaign trail next week. Would there be a world

729
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 4: in which he's on the campaign trail for another candidate

730
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 4: named Kamala Harris. If he does in fact make this decision.

731
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 15: Well, from what we've heard from the campaign publicly there

732
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 15: the President will be back on the campaign trail next week,

733
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 15: talking to voters, engaging that coalition, that broad coalition of

734
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 15: folks who propelled his victory in twenty twenty, him and

735
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,720
Speaker 15: Vice President Harris. And so I think what you'll see

736
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 15: is the campaign continuing to move full steam ahead. And

737
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 15: I think what's important here is again that contrast that

738
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 15: they're going to draw between what we saw during the

739
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 15: RNC and the vision that President Biden and Vice President

740
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 15: Harris have for America. So I think that's what we

741
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 15: can expect in the coming days is more of that

742
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 15: very clear and very sharp contrast between now this newly

743
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 15: minted Republican ticket and Vice President Harrison President Biden.

744
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 4: Well, I'll tell you, Jenny, the news that we got

745
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: today from zoel offbren that does ring a bell, right.

746
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 4: This is Nancy Pelosi, as they say, her allies are

747
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 4: turning on Joe Biden. How significant in the wake of

748
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 4: Adam Shift's call for him to step down. Is this One.

749
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 15: Think that the conversations that have been happening privately and

750
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 15: between the President, Biden and Democratic leaders have been important ones, right.

751
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 15: We want to make sure that the voices and our

752
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 15: party are heard, that folks concerns are addressed. But you know, publicly,

753
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 15: what we've heard from the campaign is that the campaign

754
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 15: moves full steam ahead. And the hope is that for

755
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 15: those who have voiced their opinions their concerns, that they

756
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,240
Speaker 15: are also having these same private conversations with the President

757
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 15: about the future of this campaign, talking about the pact victory,

758
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 15: talking about these very tight poles and battleground states that

759
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 15: show that the landscape is still shifting and is not

760
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 15: you know, fully solidified, but will now with this, with

761
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 15: this ticket now in place on the Republican side, I

762
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 15: think you're going to see a lot of that gap

763
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 15: closing that was previously that that we've seen widen a

764
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 15: bit in the what everyone could agree have been tumultuous

765
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 15: a couple of weeks on the campaign trail on both sides.

766
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 15: I think what's also important to know here is that

767
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 15: you know, the campaign is doing the work on the

768
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 15: ground to make sure that the coalition of voters who

769
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 15: are in fact the most important part of this process

770
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 15: are being reached and are being engaged. And you know,

771
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 15: the campaign and the Democratic circle, certainly the ones that

772
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 15: I run in, we know that there's work to do

773
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 15: to make sure that that coalition of folks who voted

774
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 15: for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in twenty twenty feel

775
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 15: like they have their being heard, that they're being engaged,

776
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 15: that the outreach is happening, and so that's why the

777
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 15: campaign has stay narily focused there today.

778
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 4: It's great to have you back, Lauren too. Our panel today,

779
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 4: Jane Wartel, Democratic Strategist ARC Initiatives, Laura Tomlinson, Republican strategist

780
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 4: Claffee Communications. We're going to have a lot more to

781
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 4: talk about with both of you going forward. I'm Joe

782
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 4: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. Will update the crowd strike situation

783
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 4: next down eleven percent. Following this morning, This is Bloomberg.

784
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: Your listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

785
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

786
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 2: royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

787
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

788
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

789
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 5: Thirty taking a look at how markets are reacting to

790
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 5: the crowd strike outage we saw across the globe this morning,

791
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 5: and we're also keeping track here in Washington of the

792
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 5: government reaction. Congress Foman Nancy Mace from South Carolina, a

793
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 5: member of the House Oversite Committee, has just posted on

794
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 5: x that the committee has requested briefings from both CrowdStrike

795
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 5: and Microsoft, trying to determine the breadth of impact, especially

796
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 5: across the federal government. This is in the Subcommittee on

797
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 5: Oversight for Cybersecurity and Tech. Joe, She says, stay tuned.

798
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 4: But did you reboot? Did you see the supdate? This

799
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 4: is the solution. Apparently all Windows computers affected by the

800
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 4: failure will need to be manual rebooted. Did you try

801
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 4: that before you called it? We've been here before. Maybe

802
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 4: whack it on the side. I don't know. Look, Kayley,

803
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 4: this has turned it off.

804
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 6: Turn it on.

805
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: That's right. It's something that said sweeping effects through Obviously

806
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 4: corporate America travel. We saw a lot of people and

807
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 4: know a few we are still stuck in Milwaukee. I

808
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 4: know number of members of your family are and that

809
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 4: means most Americans probably have some kind of a connection

810
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 4: to this.

811
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 7: Yep.

812
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 5: I've got family members right now stranded in the Virgin

813
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 5: Islands and it's Scotland. Because this really rippled across the world,

814
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 5: started in Australia, and because we were up in the

815
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 5: wee hours, we probably knew about it a bit earlier

816
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 5: than most.

817
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 4: But it is Yeah, I guess I love that you

818
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 4: wake up the headlines of a global internet outage and

819
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 4: you wonder what's happening. But of course we've learned a

820
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 4: lot since then, and it's part of our conversation today.

821
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 4: With a unique voice here in balance of power, that's

822
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 4: why you join us always did. Hey eight rangers European

823
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 4: Commissioner for Justice with an eye on the transatlantic relationship

824
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 4: between these technological powers, including the United States Commissioner. It's

825
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,959
Speaker 4: great to see you here in the nation's capital. Welcome

826
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 4: to Bloomberg.

827
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: Thank you, it's a pleasure to come.

828
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 4: I don't know your thoughts on this or if this

829
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 4: has impacted your life at all today, but this failure

830
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 4: on behalf of CrowdStrike is renewing a conversation about something

831
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 4: that you talk a lot about and that strong trends.

832
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 4: Atlantic regulations would they prevent something.

833
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 3: Like this it's possible.

834
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: The first impact today is the delay of three hours

835
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: to go back to Brussels. I went in Washington be

836
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: for a plane today, so that's a real issue. The

837
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 1: second element that proved that we have an interconnected world

838
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 1: and the World Wide Web, it's not new. It's a

839
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: very clear signal. We are working with the same tools

840
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,720
Speaker 1: and we are working with the same kind of approach

841
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 1: with those tools. So we need to try to implement

842
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 1: more and more the same approach. It's the same rules.

843
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 1: It's the reason why we try to work on common rules.

844
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 1: This morning I had with the Sound Have Commercial Arraymundo

845
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:53,879
Speaker 1: the possiblity to organize the first review after one year

846
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: of a new so called Data Private Privacy framework, so

847
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 1: the exchange of data between the you in the US,

848
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 1: and we need to continue to work on many other

849
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: technological issues to be sure that we have the same approach.

850
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: And that prove again that also as we have a failure,

851
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:10,720
Speaker 1: we need.

852
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 4: To work together well.

853
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 5: I also wonder if this raises a question of whether

854
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 5: there needs to be more competition in the cybersecurity space.

855
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 5: The fact that an outage that emanates from one company

856
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 5: in CrowdStrike could have these kind of global ramifications. Is

857
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 5: that not problematic in and of itself that one company

858
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 5: could be such a lynch plan for so many.

859
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 1: It's also a problem, and you know that we have

860
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 1: a competition policy and you're applying you have in the

861
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 1: US to try to find against that. But we have

862
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 1: tried to do more. We have no new regulations about

863
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: the digital world, and we have the DSA Digital Services

864
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: Act but also a Digital Market Act to open the

865
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 1: market to give an access to more players. It's a

866
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: real challenge to be sure that it's impossible for the

867
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: big text to block the entire system and to reserve

868
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 1: different kinds of activities for them with alto real possible

869
00:44:56,400 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 1: access for mids size or small size companies. You know

870
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 1: when there is a startup, immediately after you will have

871
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: a news in your on your channel that the startup

872
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: is takeover by a big tax. So we try to

873
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: organize a better competition in that, but again we need

874
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 1: to do that in a good cooperation with all the

875
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: actors sharing the same values and the same approaches the

876
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: like minded matters. We are doing that with many partners

877
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: like Canada, like UK, like Japan and soltcare of course,

878
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: between the US and AU and you spoke about the

879
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: transatlantic relation. It's what we try to do. I'm impressed

880
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 1: by the acceleration of the common approach. We're discussing two

881
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 1: years to organize a new process about the data exchanges,

882
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 1: about privacy in fact, what kind of balance between privacy

883
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: and security, individual approach in GI general rights and collective

884
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 1: security and all the time it's a real difficult issue.

885
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: But at the end one year ago it was possible

886
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 1: to conclude the negotiations. And this morning I was looking

887
00:45:55,160 --> 00:46:00,040
Speaker 1: on television to have some information about Milwaukee, and the discussion.

888
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 6: Yesterday can tell you a little bit about that.

889
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 1: But I saw for the first time and advertising about

890
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 1: the iPhone and to say, with suffering you are protecting

891
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 1: your privacy.

892
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's true.

893
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: But what's very interesting to me is to see a

894
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 1: big tech organizing a communication with a reference to the privacy.

895
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 3: It's quite new.

896
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure that there are many citizens in the US,

897
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: many consumers more and more concern about their privacy, like

898
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 1: a sola. You said, more consernerable competition was It's how

899
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 1: it's possible to have such a huge failure at the

900
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: worldwide level with one company.

901
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 4: Well, it's worth noting in this case this was not

902
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 4: an attack. This was born of an update, and I

903
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 4: wonder if from your view that makes it easier or

904
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 4: more difficult to control if there were stronger transatlantic regularly.

905
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 1: No, I'm sure that it's a technical failure, of course

906
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: when you are looking to that, but was it's very

907
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,280
Speaker 1: impressive is to see that with one company at work

908
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 1: in different kinds of sectors. We have so many difficulties

909
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: that we were in the world. So maybe competing will

910
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 1: be a real reaction. But more than that, we need

911
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: to work more together to try to have common rules.

912
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 1: What we have tried to do about privacy and to

913
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 1: protect the personal data is one thing, but we need

914
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 1: a sort of work together to open the market. What

915
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: you said about a sort of monopoly of one company

916
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 1: or a very small number of companies at work in

917
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 1: such a sector of high tech, it's impossible to continue

918
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,720
Speaker 1: with that. We need to open more and more the market,

919
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: and this is what we try to do at the

920
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,479
Speaker 1: open level. It's very recent the new regulations into force

921
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: in some months in fact, and now we try to

922
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: move more and more with a better competition in this

923
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 1: in this field, well.

924
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 5: We, of course just came from Milwaukee. Would you did

925
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 5: a little bit catching up on that. I was there

926
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 5: on the floor when Jade Vance accepted the vice presidential nomination.

927
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 5: He talked about big tech. He's for little tech. He

928
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 5: has a Silicon Valley background. He has had praise in

929
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 5: the past for the chair of the FTC here in

930
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 5: the US, Lena Khan, and efforts around anti trust. So

931
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 5: as you talk about working together, what it be just

932
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 5: as easy for Europe to work with a tru advanced

933
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,479
Speaker 5: administration as this Biden Harris administration. What do you see

934
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 5: changing depending on the outcome of this election.

935
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 1: We've had to do that some years ago. I was

936
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: more at the national level at the time, but we

937
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 1: had many bilateral meetings with the Term administration. So, of

938
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: course it will be a choice of the American voter,

939
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: so we'll work with one of the other administrations. I

940
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 1: know that it will be quite difficult, but to be

941
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 1: concrete what we have tried to organize about the privacy,

942
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 1: I start the discussions with the former administration, the Term

943
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: administration before to go to an agreement with the new one.

944
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 1: It will be difficult, but I'm sure that what will

945
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: be important is to learn more about the Union and Europe.

946
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: I've seen some declarations of a possible vice president. I'm

947
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 1: sure that we will be very happy to receive him

948
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: and to try to explain what is it the open Union?

949
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: What is a single market? A huge market of lots

950
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 1: of faith. You don't think he understands, but is a

951
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 1: question of knowledge about the real situation. We have a

952
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: huge market. You need to understand we have a real

953
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 1: competition on such a market, and we have a huge

954
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: democratic process. Yesterday it was the reelection of the President

955
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: of the up Commission. But to be elected as President

956
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: of the Upan Commission, you need to be proposed by

957
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: the twenty seven member states the government, but then you

958
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: need to reach a majority in European Parliament with seven

959
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty members of the parliament. So it's a

960
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: real democratic process and we need to explain that maybe

961
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 1: more to some leaders or possible leaders in the US.

962
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: But for the moment, we are in discussion with the

963
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: Biden administration and we will continue to do that.

964
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 4: Obviously, to your point, you've already lived through a Trump presidency.

965
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 4: We all did, so there might not be that many surprises.

966
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 4: But does the isolationist bent in this Republican party, which

967
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 4: has evolved a bit since Donald Trump served his first term.

968
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 4: Does that bring different challenges for Europe.

969
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,800
Speaker 1: But we need to continue to work on a strategic

970
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 1: autonomy of the European Union. So we have a very

971
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: strong relationship between the US and the U. But that

972
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that we don't have to invest more in defense,

973
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: in all old security and so on. But then we

974
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 1: need to convince our partners that we have common interest.

975
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 1: If you look to the situation in Ukraine, it's not

976
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: only a war of Russia against Ukraine. It's against our

977
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 1: values or share values democracy, freedom. It's very important to

978
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 1: be concerned by that. And when you look to the

979
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,760
Speaker 1: recent news and that you see that the US journalists

980
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 1: can thend to sixteen years in jail, it's quite important

981
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,720
Speaker 1: to understand that it's not only a war against Ukraine.

982
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: Of course, it's first of all that, but it's a

983
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 1: war against our values in THEU but also in the

984
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: free world, I will say. And if you look to

985
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: the situation and the replication in the US, it's very

986
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,800
Speaker 1: important to continue to support Ukraine. What we are doing

987
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 1: with the huge financial support. You know that from THEAU

988
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 1: and the Member States. It's more than one hundred and

989
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 1: sixty billions dollars that we have provided since the beginning

990
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: of the war for military support, financial support, humanitarian but

991
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 1: also the refugees, and will continue to do that, and

992
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 1: we will continue to see if it's possible one day to

993
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: go to a peace process, but on the base of

994
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: the request of Ukraine, and I'm hoping that it'll be

995
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 1: possible with the next US administration, one of an author

996
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 1: We need to understand that we have the same concerns.

997
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,479
Speaker 1: And again, the coldination of a US journalist is maybe

998
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 1: a good reminder for many US citizens that is not

999
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 1: only AU or Ukrainian situation. It's a situation for a

1000
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: large but last part.

1001
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 4: Of the world.

1002
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,879
Speaker 5: Yes, sir, I'm glad you raised that. Evan girshkch course

1003
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 5: from the Wall Street Journal sentenced to sixteen years in

1004
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 5: prison in Russia today. Thank you so much for stopping

1005
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,240
Speaker 5: by Bloomberg service your timeline.

1006
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 1: I will stay some more orders in Washington. The problem

1007
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:47,720
Speaker 1: is that US company, but it will be a pleasure.

1008
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 5: European Commissioner for Justice, did he a reindeers appreciate your time, sir,

1009
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 5: If you're.

1010
00:51:56,480 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 2: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast five weekdays

1011
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 2: at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Roudoro with the

1012
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

1013
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

1014
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 4: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance and Power. We

1015
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 4: glad you're with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Fresh

1016
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,880
Speaker 4: off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, we're back in

1017
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 4: the Capitol here and we have breaking news on a

1018
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 4: story that we have been talking about Frankly Kayley more

1019
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 4: than the Republican National Convention this week, and that is

1020
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 4: what in the world is going to happen with Joe Biden,

1021
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 4: with increasing calls now for him to drop out of

1022
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 4: the presidential race. We added several more today. The New

1023
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 4: York Times is now reporting that Vice President Kamala Harris

1024
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:45,919
Speaker 4: is set to speak with major Democratic donors. This would

1025
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 4: be an important step if in fact this is the

1026
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 4: decision or the direction that Democrats are going in.

1027
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1028
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 5: The Times citing two people who have been invited to

1029
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 5: this call, which they say is taking place on short

1030
00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 5: notice this afternoon, on this Friday, and the call is

1031
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:02,800
Speaker 5: endorsed in part by Reid Hoffman, who of course is

1032
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 5: one of the biggest donors within the Democratic Party, who,

1033
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 5: in an email that The Times got a look at,

1034
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 5: said we continue to find ourselves in a rapidly evolving

1035
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 5: environment and says with the stakes acide, they are the cycle.

1036
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 5: We have to remain focused on the critical work that

1037
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 5: needs to be done to protect our democracy. And that

1038
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 5: is what we're hearing from so many Democrats, this idea

1039
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 5: that they are growing increasingly concerned that for democracy to

1040
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:28,280
Speaker 5: be protected, Joe Biden cannot lead the Democratic ticket.

1041
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 4: Well, that's right, and if it's not going to be

1042
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,359
Speaker 4: Joe Biden, someone else needs time to get a new

1043
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 4: campaign up and running here and get ready for a

1044
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 4: convention in Chicago, Kayley. That's why this is happening pretty

1045
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 4: quickly here, and there are reports that it could actually

1046
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 4: turn over this weekend. If that is the case, you

1047
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 4: can expect special coverage here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

1048
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 5: Indeed, of course we've heard on TV, radio and elsewhere

1049
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 5: from a lot of voices this week in Milwaukee and

1050
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 5: other places. Now that we're back in Washington, and it's

1051
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 5: worth pointing out that while Joe Biden has been sidelined

1052
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 5: in Delaware recovering from COVID. Vice President Harris has been

1053
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 5: out there. She actually spoke yesterday about Donald Trump specifically,

1054
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 5: and she had this to say, in.

1055
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 16: Part, donald Trump were to win in November, he will

1056
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 16: continue to sell out working families, he will continue to

1057
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 16: attack reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy.

1058
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,439
Speaker 5: The Vice president yesterday. So on this Friday, we add

1059
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 5: another voice to this conversation. Andre Gillspie is here with

1060
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 5: us in Washington. She is associate professor at political science

1061
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 5: at Emory University.

1062
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 6: Andre, what a week. Thank you for joining us.

1063
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 5: As we try to wrap things up, we'll see if

1064
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 5: we're all going to be having a working weekend. We

1065
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,959
Speaker 5: heard Vice President Harris. They're talking in particular about reproductive rates.

1066
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 5: That is one of the issues that she has owned

1067
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 5: as Vice president. Is that an issue that could actually

1068
00:54:57,680 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 5: make her one of the most viable candidates for the

1069
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 5: Democrat Party if Joe Biden does indeed step aside, let

1070
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 5: alone the fact that she is Vice President of the

1071
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 5: United States right now as we speak.

1072
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 3: Well, it's an.

1073
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 17: Issue that Democrats have been honing in on since the

1074
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 17: Dobbs decision because they've noticed that Democratic voters in particular

1075
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 17: have increasingly said that reproductive issues are salient issues to them.

1076
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 17: So they're saying that abortion as an important issue for

1077
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 17: them in the way that pro life voters might have

1078
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 17: said that in the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties, and

1079
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 17: so Democrats have had success with that issue, and so

1080
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 17: they're going to continue to try to find success with it.

1081
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 17: The question is how many single issue pro choice voters

1082
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,520
Speaker 17: are there and what other issues do you need to

1083
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 17: hit on in order to put the type of coalition

1084
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 17: together that can win enough states to win the electoral college.

1085
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 4: Joe Biden's campaign says he's going back on the campaign

1086
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 4: trail next week, and I guess you have to project

1087
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 4: that kind of confidence until you're no longer able to.

1088
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris is of course also hearing calls for an

1089
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:03,360
Speaker 4: open convention or a mini primary or series of town halls.

1090
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 4: This is a lot of this is going to be

1091
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 4: Joe Biden's choice. To what extent can she help to

1092
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 4: affect the outcome? Is it meetings like this with donors.

1093
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:15,319
Speaker 17: Well, you know, we don't know what they're discussing in

1094
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:17,800
Speaker 17: the meeting, so we don't know if Harris is there

1095
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 17: to try to assuage the concerns of these high level

1096
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 17: donors so that they release the money that they're withholding

1097
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 17: right now from the Democrats, because they're not just withholding

1098
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 17: it from Biden, they're threatening to withhold it from down ballot.

1099
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 4: Panada's capital right now, knowing that he could be out

1100
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 4: of the race within days.

1101
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 17: Well, you know, I think she has to project that,

1102
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 17: but she also might have to make people comfortable with

1103
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 17: her if other Democrats are able to convince President Biden

1104
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:44,480
Speaker 17: that he should drop out of the race, she can't

1105
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,399
Speaker 17: be seen, as you know, striking him while he's down,

1106
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 17: especially given the fact that he has COVID. So she

1107
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 17: has to be a loyal team player. She has to

1108
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 17: demonstrate that she can be the leader of the Democratic

1109
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 17: Party to make voters comfortable with her. And then if

1110
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 17: it turns out that Biden does drop out of the race,

1111
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 17: then they're going to have to very quickly settle on

1112
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 17: who the nominee should be. And she's going to have

1113
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 17: to be able to project leadership and strength in a

1114
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 17: way that could help her clear the field if it

1115
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 17: looks like she's the heir apparent.

1116
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 5: Well, of course, where all of the dropout calls are

1117
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 5: coming from are from Democrats who have expressed concern that

1118
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 5: they do not believe Joe Biden is capable of defeating

1119
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 5: Donald Trump in November. The question is whether or not

1120
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 5: there is convincing data out there that shows any other

1121
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 5: Democrat could defeat Donald Trump easily in November. Have you

1122
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 5: seen any figures that have convinced you of that.

1123
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 17: Andre, So, the public figures don't suggest that at all.

1124
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 17: Vice President Harris has pulled in some surveys about at

1125
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:41,880
Speaker 17: the same rate that President Biden has and the other contenders,

1126
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 17: especially right after the debate, we're actually pulling lower than

1127
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 17: President Biden or Vice President Harris. So I think that's

1128
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 17: part of the reason why people are looking at her,

1129
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 17: in addition to the fact that she is Vice president

1130
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 17: of the United States, so she would be the obvious

1131
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 17: first person that you would look at. One of the

1132
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 17: things that I would caution as a professor is I

1133
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 17: would actually want to see this in an experimental matchup

1134
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 17: where you split the sample and you randomly put people

1135
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 17: in different groups and then pose one question. You know,

1136
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 17: is it Biden as the Democratic nominee or Harris or

1137
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 17: Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer, and then we can see

1138
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 17: kind of in the head to head matchup sort of

1139
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 17: how people would make one particular choice. I imagine that

1140
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 17: maybe some of the internal polls have that, but that's

1141
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:21,920
Speaker 17: certainly something that I would want to see in a

1142
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 17: public poll.

1143
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 4: We heard Republicans and Donald Trump testing out nicknames for

1144
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris in Milwaukee. I believe Cacklin co pilot Kamala

1145
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 4: was one that I heard the most. Does that mean

1146
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 4: you're winning when Trump is coining your nickname?

1147
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 17: You know, I don't focus on the winning. I mean,

1148
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 17: first of all, I focus on the maturity of that,

1149
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,360
Speaker 17: and I focus on what that says about the toxicity

1150
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 17: of our culture. When I'm also listening to that, I'm

1151
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:51,480
Speaker 17: listening for race and gendered language in there. And so

1152
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 17: the idea of talking about a woman as cackling referring

1153
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 17: to her laugh is something that is certainly problematic and that,

1154
00:58:57,600 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 17: you know, if Harris is the nominee, she's going to

1155
00:58:59,520 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 17: have to.

1156
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 4: You would face that. Yeah, for the rest of the cycle.

1157
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 5: Well, as we talk about race and gender, A lot

1158
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 5: of conversation we had in Milwaukee is the extent to

1159
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 5: which it does seem that the Republican Party, or at

1160
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,920
Speaker 5: least Trump and Vance, seem to have narrow their focus

1161
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 5: to a very specific type of voter, and it's not

1162
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:20,439
Speaker 5: necessarily a female voter. Let's say that Jdvance talks about

1163
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 5: the working man, it does seem like they're looking at

1164
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 5: the rest belt and male rural voters, especially within it

1165
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 5: has the Republican Party, in your eyes, completely abandoned the

1166
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 5: reach out to suburban women. This is a conversation we've

1167
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 5: had continually in the last few.

1168
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 17: Days, well not exactly, and it's important for us to

1169
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 17: recognize that gender operates differently than race in terms of outreach.

1170
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:45,920
Speaker 17: So in particular, Republican women might actually be impervious to

1171
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 17: perhaps some of these perceived slights, if you will, or

1172
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:51,120
Speaker 17: lack of attention in these issues. I would not expect

1173
00:59:51,200 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 17: Republican women to be defecting to vote for the Democratic

1174
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 17: ticket because you know of the fact that JD. Vance

1175
00:59:57,240 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 17: might be a champion of working men, or because Donald

1176
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,120
Speaker 17: Trump uses masculinus language. And in fact, if we look

1177
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 17: at his vote share amongst women in the twenty twenty

1178
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 17: twenty sixteen elections, he loses college educated white women but

1179
01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 17: working class white women certainly voted for Donald Trump, so

1180
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 17: I wouldn't expect that there would would be a change there.

1181
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 17: I do expect that they are going to reach out

1182
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 17: to women. It doesn't necessarily have to be about abortion,

1183
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 17: and so that's something that I would caution Democrats to

1184
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 17: not make everything solely about abortion. You know, the outreach

1185
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 17: in terms of talking about education and the content of students' education. Right,

1186
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 17: they thanked basically Moms for Liberty without actually directly naming

1187
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,360
Speaker 17: them during the convention, and so there are ways that

1188
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:41,200
Speaker 17: activist women really do see themselves as being sort of,

1189
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 17: you know, front and center and the MAGA movement.

1190
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 4: There's a conventional wisdom out there, and I guess it's

1191
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 4: based on some polling, But the fact of the matter

1192
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 4: is people have not seen Kamala Harris do a heck

1193
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 4: of a lot of campaigning. Let's live in California, paid

1194
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 4: real close attention to the primary race between herself, Joe Biden,

1195
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 4: and others. The conventional wisdom that she is just not

1196
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 4: a gifted campaigner. What do you make of that? Is

1197
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 4: it true?

1198
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 17: Well, I mean, I think that this is something that's

1199
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 17: going to be a liability if Vice President Harris turns

1200
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 17: out to be the Democratic nominee, so we know where

1201
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 17: she's pulling. Now that's a hypothetical situation. Things change when

1202
01:01:17,360 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 17: you are, in fact the real candidate. Because she's run

1203
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 17: before and she is a national figure, you also have

1204
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 17: to consider what her liabilities are. And so some of

1205
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 17: those narratives from the twenty twenty election about poor management

1206
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 17: or about staff turnover in her White House staff are

1207
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 17: certainly going to come up, and she's going to have

1208
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 17: to provide a ready response for that. She's also going

1209
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:38,120
Speaker 17: to bear the weight of all of the criticisms of

1210
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:41,280
Speaker 17: the Biden administration. So one challenge is how to figure

1211
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 17: out how to tout the successes of the Biden administration

1212
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 17: in ways that heretofore this campaign has been unable to do.

1213
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 17: But then also how to inoculate yourself from having to

1214
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,640
Speaker 17: take full responsibility for anything that could be perceived as

1215
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 17: a blunder. And one of the challenges and the risks

1216
01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 17: of somebody like Vice President Harris coming in and filling

1217
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 17: in is that she's tied to the administration. There's no

1218
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 17: way she's going to say that she wasn't a part

1219
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,479
Speaker 17: of some of these things. And so that allows her

1220
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 17: to take credit for the good things, but that also

1221
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 17: means she's got to be ready to respond to the

1222
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 17: bad things.

1223
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 5: Well, of course, she also had a career as a

1224
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 5: prosecutor that we've heard could actually be part of her

1225
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 5: problem with specifically Black voters, a group that we know

1226
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 5: are becoming more disaffected with Joe Biden pivoting to Donald

1227
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 5: Trump in numbers that we haven't really seen in modern

1228
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 5: political history, to say the least. How should we think

1229
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 5: about her appeal within that demographic and whether or not

1230
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 5: she needs to be included in the ticket, either at

1231
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 5: the top or continue on as the vice president in

1232
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,120
Speaker 5: order to keep them within the family.

1233
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 17: Well, I think it's more dangerous to exclude her from

1234
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 17: the ticket. So I don't think there's any discussion at

1235
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 17: all that Democrats are having. African American women in particular,

1236
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 17: are the most Democratic voting bloc in the United States.

1237
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:51,720
Speaker 17: They're voting upwards of ninety percent for Democratic candidates, including

1238
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 17: Joe Biden. To take Kamala Harris off of that ticket

1239
01:02:55,120 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 17: is to risk them not showing up, and that is

1240
01:02:57,320 --> 01:02:59,439
Speaker 17: going to be fatal to a Democratic WAKA any.

1241
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:01,640
Speaker 4: Different if she we're simply not at the top of

1242
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 4: the ticket, though, isn't that an insult to a vice

1243
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 4: president who got fourteen million votes one heartbeat away?

1244
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 17: Well, I mean, yes, I think it will be, which

1245
01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:11,920
Speaker 17: is why I think there is some behind the scenes

1246
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 17: discussion of if it is not Joe Biden, how can

1247
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 17: we get everybody within the Democratic circle to coalesce around

1248
01:03:18,760 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 17: Kamala Harris. So, even if you have to go through

1249
01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:24,440
Speaker 17: having town hall meetings and having debates and having an

1250
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 17: open delegate vote at the floor of the DNC or

1251
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 17: in any virtual votes that would happen ahead of time,

1252
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 17: there has to be some consensus that Kamala Harris has

1253
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 17: to be given the sort of opportunity to decline the seat,

1254
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:39,120
Speaker 17: and it has to be very clear that she's making

1255
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,360
Speaker 17: this decision of her own volition and she's not being

1256
01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 17: coerced into not being a part of any ticket or

1257
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 17: not being at the top of it.

1258
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 5: Well, the convention is getting closer every minute that we speak.

1259
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:51,160
Speaker 5: So finally, Andre and I know it's impossible to predict,

1260
01:03:51,200 --> 01:03:54,120
Speaker 5: but knowing we are working on a deadline here, how

1261
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 5: much longer do you think Joe Biden can go before

1262
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 5: he decides one way or another.

1263
01:03:57,920 --> 01:04:00,320
Speaker 17: I would say probably no more than a week, because

1264
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 17: if he has to drop out, then Democrats have to

1265
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:04,479
Speaker 17: come up with the contingency plan for how to govern

1266
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 17: the replacement and make democratic voters in general feel comfortable

1267
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 17: that this was democratically decided and that it wasn't some

1268
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:11,480
Speaker 17: type of coronation.

1269
01:04:11,560 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 4: If he doesn't decide in a week, then we roll

1270
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 4: into another one talking about this very same story. This

1271
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 4: is quite a remarkable moment in American politics, Undra Gillespie

1272
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 4: or treat to have you in the nation's capital and

1273
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 4: with us today at the table. Thank you so much

1274
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 4: for coming to see us. Thanks for listening to the

1275
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 4: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

1276
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 4: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

1277
01:04:34,960 --> 01:04:37,440
Speaker 4: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

1278
01:04:37,480 --> 01:04:40,560
Speaker 4: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.