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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Lee. We bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance and Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg Terminent. Chris

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Speaker 1: bah Hobby, head of ecty strategy at Wealth Fothered Securities,

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Speaker 1: joining us now. Chris. Great to see you, Um and Uh.

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Speaker 1: I hope that that you continue in your successful negative

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Speaker 1: run into Christmas. I think everybody is focusing on that

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Speaker 1: right now. Um, talk to me about where we are

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Speaker 1: with this cycle. A lot of people are starting to

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Speaker 1: tell me that we're late cycle. Do you believe that?

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Speaker 1: Is that true? And if so, what does it mean

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Speaker 1: in terms of portfolio structure. I think we are a

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Speaker 1: late SI cycle. At the very least, we're late mid cycle,

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Speaker 1: but I think we're early late cycle. If you look

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Speaker 1: at credit spreads, credit spreads are tight. If you look

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Speaker 1: at growth, growth is decelerating, You're you're starting to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of speculation in the marketplace. And at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, we've had an incredible run and

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Speaker 1: and what we're looking at is we're looking at a

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Speaker 1: more um hawkish FED. These are all classic late cycle signs,

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Speaker 1: So I think we are late cycle at this juncture

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Speaker 1: in the market. You think we're at late cycle, and

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Speaker 1: you also think we're close to an inflection point when

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Speaker 1: it comes to risk appetite. What's the trigger? What flips

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Speaker 1: the switch on that? So so one of the things

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Speaker 1: that we've looked at in the past, and the second

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Speaker 1: year of the recovery typically you see multiple compression. So

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Speaker 1: why should we see multiple compression next year? We should

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Speaker 1: see multiple compression next year. First, for some of the

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Speaker 1: reasons we're talking about. Right, you've squeezed a lot of

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Speaker 1: the juice out of this trade. You're going to decelerate.

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Speaker 1: The FED is going to be more aggressive. We've had

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Speaker 1: in Croyd. I've never seen the kind of pricing power

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Speaker 1: corporations have, and my career spans over two decades. We're

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Speaker 1: probably going to see pete pricing. What means we're will

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Speaker 1: likely see peak margins and peak multiples. That all tells

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Speaker 1: you it's time to re risk. That's time it's time

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Speaker 1: to start thinking about the risk side of the equation. First,

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Speaker 1: and the return. Second, and there's a ton of speculation

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Speaker 1: out in the marketplace no matter where you look. So Chris,

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Speaker 1: as you talk about de risking, how do you do

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Speaker 1: that in your equity portfolio? You talk do you move

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Speaker 1: into low ball securities, do you move into sort of

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Speaker 1: more sustainable margin, low earnings variability? What's what's the factor

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Speaker 1: that defines for you moving low risk in this climate?

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Speaker 1: Ga that that's a great question, and and we do

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Speaker 1: like low val but really what we're pushing, what we

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Speaker 1: think the best risk reward is is to move up

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Speaker 1: in quality. And there's three reasons to move up in quality.

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Speaker 1: You're not paying much of a premium, especially as you

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Speaker 1: go down the capitalization. The second thing is, as we've

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Speaker 1: talked about, it's late cycle. Usually quality does much better

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Speaker 1: when growth is decelerating, It does better when credit spreads

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Speaker 1: are tighter widening, and it does it does better in

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Speaker 1: a lower risk environment. And the last thing I would

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Speaker 1: say is what quality does. It gives you a certain

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Speaker 1: return distribution, and that return distribution is very attractive to us.

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Speaker 1: It allows you to participate to the upside, but really

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Speaker 1: protect to the downside so you can stay in the game.

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Speaker 1: But really you've just shifted around the risk of your portfolio.

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Speaker 1: So we like higher quality a lot next year, and

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Speaker 1: we've been recommending that to all our clients. Define higher

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Speaker 1: quality for us, Chris, how do you define quality? I

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Speaker 1: find that investors are very frustrated with this term quality,

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Speaker 1: as every shop defines quality securities quite differently. For you

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Speaker 1: at whilst Fargo, what defines quality? So, Gina, you're right,

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Speaker 1: whether you want to talk about quality, you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about value. You ask ten different people, you get

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Speaker 1: ten different answers. For for us, there's a very large

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Speaker 1: emphasis on balance sheet. We want really attractive balance sheets,

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Speaker 1: balance sheets that have cash on hands. So we're looking

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Speaker 1: at factors like net debt to EBITDA. The second thing

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Speaker 1: we're looking at we're looking for good stewards of capital,

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Speaker 1: good management teams, and you find that with higher r

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Speaker 1: o I C and r o EAS. And the last

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Speaker 1: thing that we look for is we want to stay

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Speaker 1: away from there secular stories, so we're looking for higher

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Speaker 1: net profit margins. So those are the three factors that

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Speaker 1: that we look at. Is Big Tech quality? Is Microsoft quality?

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Speaker 1: Is is Alphabet quality? That's the question that I hear

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Speaker 1: a lot of the moment, and that I find really

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Speaker 1: hard to deal with that guy. Um. So we put

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Speaker 1: together we have a quantimental quality portfolio, and in that

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Speaker 1: portfolio we do have Microsoft. Microsoft does have a very

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Speaker 1: good balance sheet, It does have some very good metrics,

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Speaker 1: so it does fit there. But but that's not the

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Speaker 1: only type of names you get in there. What we

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Speaker 1: find typically our companies that have really good balance sheets

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Speaker 1: often cash on hand. They can use that during times

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Speaker 1: of stress, either in buy backs or acquisitions. They also

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Speaker 1: have good management teams. They know how to um use

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Speaker 1: their product, they know how to get the most out

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Speaker 1: of it. So they typically have high r o I

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Speaker 1: c s and r o E s, and they're often

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Speaker 1: in very good secular stories which sometimes put you into tech.

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Speaker 1: But you can find that consumer discretionary. You can find

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Speaker 1: that in industrials, and you can find that in attack.

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Speaker 1: All right, Chris Harvey of Wells Fargo Securities, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. We're so lucky now to be joined by

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Speaker 1: Republican Congressman Brian Style of Wisconsin. He's also the head

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Speaker 1: of the Select Committee on the Economy. Brian, and Congressman,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. You put out

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Speaker 1: a statement after Joe Mansion said he was a no

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Speaker 1: on this plan. You said, common sense has prevailed. This

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Speaker 1: bill has been stopped for now that it's far too costly,

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Speaker 1: pushes policies that won't help the economy. But the bill

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Speaker 1: ultimately is a sum of different parts. Are there any

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Speaker 1: parts within this legislation if taken separately, would find your support.

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Speaker 1: I think there's topics in the bill that Republicans could

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Speaker 1: come to the table and work on. But this bill

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Speaker 1: was drafted in a partisan manner. Uh In now a

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Speaker 1: majority of the United States Senate approved disapproves a bit.

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Speaker 1: Mansion just being the sole Democrat that's realized how transformative

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Speaker 1: this bill is. But I think there's key challenges that

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Speaker 1: our country is facing. We could look at childcare. It's

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Speaker 1: a problem for so many families. It's incredibly expensive. We

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Speaker 1: should be able to come together and address the fact

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Speaker 1: that we need to improve quality. We need to make

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Speaker 1: sure it's accessible, that it's affordable. But if you actually

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Speaker 1: look at the underlying provisions in this bill as it

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Speaker 1: relates to childcare, it moves us in the wrong direction.

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Speaker 1: It makes it less affordable, it makes it less available

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Speaker 1: by putting federal mandates on it. And it drops quality

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Speaker 1: because there's mandates that will ultimately make individuals who are

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Speaker 1: currently providing childcare to lose their jobs. And so what

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Speaker 1: we need to do is move away from the partisan

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Speaker 1: approach that this administration has taken since day one, and

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Speaker 1: then there are areas where we could come together to

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Speaker 1: truly address the challenges this country space. Well. In congressmen,

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Speaker 1: you have worked across the aisle on the issue of childcare.

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Speaker 1: You worked with Democratic Cologies colleagues on legislation UH to

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Speaker 1: provide new parents with a five thousand dollar advanced through

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Speaker 1: the Child Tax Credit. Is an extension of that child

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Speaker 1: tax credit, a continuation of those payments, something that you

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Speaker 1: would like to see happen. The bill that I support

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Speaker 1: is a reformulation of how the child tax Credit is provided.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't raise taxes, it doesn't cost revenue. It just

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Speaker 1: allows parents the option to pull that forward to the

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Speaker 1: days after the birth of a child, where many parents

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Speaker 1: need to have the ability to stay home with their child.

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Speaker 1: What we need to do is have common sense approaches

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Speaker 1: under the Democratic provisions. What it is is a child allowance.

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Speaker 1: It's money from the federal government, not tied to work

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Speaker 1: and not shot tied to the early days of a

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Speaker 1: child after birth. And so I think what we need

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Speaker 1: to do is scrap Build Back Better all together and

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Speaker 1: then get on with the work of providing proposal proposals

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Speaker 1: that actually address the challenges Americans are facing. Um, Congressmen,

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Speaker 1: it's Guy Johnson in London. Let me ask you a

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Speaker 1: kind of high level question. Will the Republicans do better

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Speaker 1: in the midterms if the Democrats pass Build Bank Better

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Speaker 1: or don't pass Bill bak Better? Because I can see

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Speaker 1: it both ways. I can see that there is the

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Speaker 1: inflation reconcerned. There is a concern about an overheating economy.

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Speaker 1: That may work in your favor, but if they don't

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Speaker 1: pass it, maybe there's a lot of people in your

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Speaker 1: district and elsewhere who are going to feel that they've

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Speaker 1: been let down. Can you walk me through kind of

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Speaker 1: actually from your political point of view, with a political

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Speaker 1: kind of lens, what you see happening here. Well, I'll

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Speaker 1: never cheer against the United States of America for political purposes.

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Speaker 1: And so the concern is we need to stop Build

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Speaker 1: Back Better in its tracks today. As of now, we

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Speaker 1: got this thing on hold with Center Mansion. We need

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Speaker 1: to continue to prevent it from moving forward. If it

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Speaker 1: does move forward, it would be disastrous for the United

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Speaker 1: States economy. Americans are already feeling the inflationary pressures every

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Speaker 1: day when they go to fill up their car at

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Speaker 1: the gas station, when they go to the grocery store,

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Speaker 1: right when they're going Christmas shopping here in the final

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Speaker 1: days before Christmas. Build back better, it would simply drive

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Speaker 1: costs higher. It will clover Americans in the pocketbooks. Again,

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Speaker 1: going back to childcare, many economists predict that it would

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Speaker 1: increase cost of childcare by thirteen thousand dollars. Talk about inflation,

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Speaker 1: and so if this bill passes, I think it will

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Speaker 1: be as unpopular with the American people as we predict

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Speaker 1: it will, which is why we need to stop it

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Speaker 1: in the first place. I think the American people are

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Speaker 1: waking up is to how far left the policies are

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Speaker 1: they're coming out of the Biden administration, how partisan they are,

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Speaker 1: And I think there's gonna be repercussions of that in

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Speaker 1: November either way, in terms of the inflation we impact

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Speaker 1: you think it's gonna have. Can you get a little

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Speaker 1: outside of child care? Can you be a little bit

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Speaker 1: more specific in terms of why you think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a negative for the US economy. Take

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Speaker 1: take the take the child allowance to shift away from

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Speaker 1: the actual childcare provisions and go into the tax portion

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Speaker 1: of this bill that continues to provide Americans funds that

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Speaker 1: is not tied to work. And so right now we

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Speaker 1: have a labor crisis here playing out not only in

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Speaker 1: cities like James or I'm sitting today, but across the country.

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Speaker 1: We need to get workers back to work. The provision

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Speaker 1: is in this bill do nothing to get workers back

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Speaker 1: to work. And as we continue to see the labor

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Speaker 1: shortage in the United States play out, we continue to

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Speaker 1: see rising prices. As a result, you also see stores

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Speaker 1: that are closed. You can pretty much drive anywhere you

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Speaker 1: want in southeast Wisconsin or across the country. We have

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Speaker 1: restaurants that are closing on certain days because they don't

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Speaker 1: have workers. And that's true not just in the restaurant industry,

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Speaker 1: that's true across the board. And so the provisions and

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Speaker 1: build back better discourage workers from getting back to work

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Speaker 1: and as a result will have a big impact, I

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Speaker 1: believe on rising prices. Congressman, it strikes me that the

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Speaker 1: market is starting to get nervous about the removal of

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Speaker 1: the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy supports that we're enacted

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Speaker 1: throughout and early. Do you see a past by which

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Speaker 1: the fiscal policymakers can start to remove and normalize rationalized

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Speaker 1: spending without creating detrimental impacts on the economy? Is J.

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Speaker 1: Powell Chairman. Powell has testified in front of the House

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Speaker 1: find Services Committee, where I sit now for over a year.

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Speaker 1: I have brought up my concerns with the mismatch between

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Speaker 1: United States fiscal and monetary policy at a time where

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Speaker 1: we're spending, on the side of Congress well beyond our means,

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Speaker 1: spending trillions of dollars more than we're taking in. At

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Speaker 1: the same time that's occurring, the Federal Reserve has been

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Speaker 1: pumping in and dramatically increasing its balance sheet. That gives

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Speaker 1: me great concern for the inflation that we're seeing today.

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Speaker 1: Other people disagree with that, but I believe that the

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Speaker 1: monetary policy, in the fiscal policy we've seen now for

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Speaker 1: over a year, is detrimental. I think it's positive that

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is finally recognizing that the rising prices,

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Speaker 1: that the inflation is not transitory, and that we need

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Speaker 1: to alter the policies coming out of Washington to get

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Speaker 1: prices under control. I supported Powell's move that we need

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Speaker 1: to actually taper down the balance sheet. I would like

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Speaker 1: to see this balance sheet come down quicker than he

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Speaker 1: will ultimately do it. He's planning to hold many of

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Speaker 1: these securities until maturity understood. But what we need to

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Speaker 1: do is shift policies quickly because we continue to see

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Speaker 1: rising prices and it's just clabbering people, average everyday workers

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Speaker 1: all across this country. It's clabbering them in the pocketbook

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Speaker 1: as we head into Christmas. All right, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for giving us some of your time this morning.

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Speaker 1: That is Congressman Brian Style, Republican from Wisconsin. We appreciate

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Speaker 1: it is the US a couple of weeks behind the

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Speaker 1: UK as well. That's the question I want to answer

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Speaker 1: to To help us answer our questions were joined now

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Speaker 1: by Dr Bati Hansatti, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at

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Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins University. Dr Hansatti, we we also heard from

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration yesterday not talking about lockdowns or restrictive measures,

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Speaker 1: focusing instead on therapies, on testing, on shoring up hospitals.

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Speaker 1: They also reportedly are looking at shortening the quarantine period

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Speaker 1: for people who test positive but are fully vaccinated and boosted.

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Speaker 1: Is that something that would be an appropriate policy response

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Speaker 1: given what we know? Absolutely? So, we you know, the

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Speaker 1: party day quarantine was when we were unvaccinated. It was

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Speaker 1: with the alpha variant UM. Those transition dynamics have evolved

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Speaker 1: with every single variant has come hence off to UM.

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Speaker 1: We think that once if you're vaccinated, you test positively,

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Speaker 1: you're asymptomatic, your risk of transmitting to another individual is

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Speaker 1: significantly decreased past seven days, and so attend day reduction

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Speaker 1: for quarantine that seems appropriate. Okay, so that may be

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Speaker 1: good news for some people who want to travel during

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Speaker 1: the holidays, but for travelers who are fully vaccinated boosted

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Speaker 1: wants to go see their families that we've also seen

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Speaker 1: that being fully vaccinated and boosted doesn't necessarily prevent you

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Speaker 1: from a positive case. And we are hearing from advisors

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Speaker 1: to airlines, a medical advisor to AATA saying that you're

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Speaker 1: twice to three times as likely to get COVID nineteen

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Speaker 1: on an airplane with a macron as you were with

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Speaker 1: previous previous waves of the virus and previous variants. Would

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Speaker 1: you feel comfortable vaccinated and boosted traveling this holiday season?

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Speaker 1: So this holiday season I take a post, so I

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Speaker 1: v actually council patrol our plants. However, I just returned

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Speaker 1: for an international trip, so you will say, if you're

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Speaker 1: going to travel, think about shorter distances, distances where you

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Speaker 1: can remain masked for the whole time. UM. Do think

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Speaker 1: about getting tested the day of travel. That way you know,

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Speaker 1: like what your risk is to transmitting to others once

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Speaker 1: you arrive at your destination. UM. Also think about traveling

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Speaker 1: at times when the airport is likely to be less busy. UM.

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Speaker 1: And ensure that once you travel that you decrease the

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Speaker 1: number of STOPOVERSUM because each stopover you're again likely town

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Speaker 1: mask have something to eat or drink. And it is

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Speaker 1: those periods when you're unmasked when the risk of transmission

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Speaker 1: is the highest. So traveling as safe as possible is

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Speaker 1: going to be my recommendation. If travel is avoidable, or

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Speaker 1: if someone in your party is unvaccinated, has a medical illness,

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Speaker 1: is elderly or immuno compromised, then definitely rethink travel. It

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Speaker 1: tooks a hand. Still think good morning. Is in that

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Speaker 1: same piece that Kaylee was just referring to. There, I

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Speaker 1: was hearing more and more about airlines staggering meal times

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Speaker 1: just to avoid the situation where the whole plane removes

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Speaker 1: their masks at the same time we would seem to

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Speaker 1: defeat the objects. Let me ask you about our ability

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Speaker 1: to treat COVID nineteen right now, in any of its forms,

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Speaker 1: any of its variants. How much better are we at

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Speaker 1: treating a COVID nineteen now? How much less fatal is

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Speaker 1: it is if you go into hospital with COVID now

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Speaker 1: versus where we were at the start of the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Because with these anti virals, we see announcements from the

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Speaker 1: US governments and the UK government today about big purchases

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Speaker 1: of anti virals to to take us through this next phase.

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Speaker 1: So at the start of the pandemic we're in a

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Speaker 1: very different spot. Many of those who were sick and

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Speaker 1: dyeing were people who had covibilities and were elderly. A

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Speaker 1: large proportion of that population, those who are the highest

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Speaker 1: numbers of com mobility, terminal illnesses and or elderly, have

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Speaker 1: been vaccinated and successfully boosted, So the page of population

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Speaker 1: is different in addition to that, we also have some

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Speaker 1: new therapies that about to come on the market to

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Speaker 1: paxil molu paranavire a, two oral therapies that are available

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Speaker 1: to individuals at the time of onset of symptoms that

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Speaker 1: decrease hospitalizations. We've also have steroids and monoclonal antibodies which

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Speaker 1: were improved to be effective in certain populations. So together

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Speaker 1: these four tools would decrease the number of those mean

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Speaker 1: to be hospitalized. It doesn't mean people will not end

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Speaker 1: up in the IC, but once you do end up

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Speaker 1: in the I see you acknowledge is better how to

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Speaker 1: make you stable and how to get you transition back

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Speaker 1: to home. Dr HANSTI, I'd love to talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the symptoms of a macron specifically, because anecdotally

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Speaker 1: it seems like prior variants were really focused on upper

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Speaker 1: respiratory symptoms, sinus symptoms, and now I'm hearing more about

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Speaker 1: gastro intestinal stomach symptoms. With respect to a macron. Is

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Speaker 1: there a difference in the symptoms for this particular variant

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Speaker 1: versus others, just in terms of us looking out for

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Speaker 1: potential infections, I would say that every single variant that

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Speaker 1: we've had has presented slightly differently. However, we don't have

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Speaker 1: quantitative data to tell us if it's mockular different with

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Speaker 1: a macron. Vus is a previous. So in the medical

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Speaker 1: like community, we use influenza like illness symptoms, which includes

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Speaker 1: a gambit of things, so still fever, headaches, shortness of breath, fatigue, diarrhea, um.

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Speaker 1: Those are the symptoms that we would say, like, please,

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Speaker 1: you know, consider being contested for COVID. Consider reaching out

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Speaker 1: to your primary cacrovida. All right, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for providing us some answers as we have so many questions.

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Speaker 1: Dr Bati Hansatti of Johns Hopkins. We also need to

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Speaker 1: talk about travel and how that may be looking different

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Speaker 1: this holiday season in the face of omicron. Brian Kelly,

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Speaker 1: founder and CEO of The Points Guy, joins us. Now, Brian,

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Speaker 1: from your view of the world, has demand been sapped

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Speaker 1: substantially this holiday season? You know it hasn't. We've been

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Speaker 1: clocking nearly two million or over a million passengers a day,

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Speaker 1: uh through the t s A. Most of that's domestic travel,

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Speaker 1: you know, international travel is still highly depressed, especially to Asia.

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Speaker 1: We had high hopes that Japan was going to open

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Speaker 1: up for tourism and Bali and Thailand, and you know,

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Speaker 1: all of those have been extended, but domestic Caribbean travel

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Speaker 1: is still at you know, really strong levels. And even

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Speaker 1: yesterday we had almost the same amount of t s

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Speaker 1: A passengers sprained as two years ago pre pandemic. Didn't

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Speaker 1: that might change over the next few days. Brian was

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Speaker 1: starting to see reports that because of the transmissibility of

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Speaker 1: a macron and that number being significantly higher than delta

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Speaker 1: and previous variants. But actually even on a plane which

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Speaker 1: has medical grade affiltration, you are significantly more at risk,

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Speaker 1: particularly in coach. Yeah. I did see that report today

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Speaker 1: actually on Bloomberg, and uh, you know, I think there

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Speaker 1: still needs to be some more data. But certainly I've

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Speaker 1: always recommended us as frequent flyer miles for business class.

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Speaker 1: You know, some airlines during the pandemic even allowed you

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Speaker 1: to take your mask off if you were flying in

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Speaker 1: business or first class, because in a lot of those

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Speaker 1: cabins you're completely separated from other people. So where possible,

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Speaker 1: I highly recommend use those points and upgrade um. But

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I think there is fatigue amongst amongst travelers.

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Speaker 1: I think people are still waiting to see Okay, oh

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Speaker 1: macron is more transmissible. But if you're vaccinated, which many

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Speaker 1: travelers are, what is the actual threat? But I think

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Speaker 1: the biggest thing for internationals rebound is just people maybe

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Speaker 1: aren't afraid of going to the hospital with with COVID,

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Speaker 1: but getting stuck abroad and having to incur those costs

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Speaker 1: or you know, go to a government quarantine facility in

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Speaker 1: some countries. So I think as long as there's still

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Speaker 1: that cloud of uncertainty, you know, we're not going to

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Speaker 1: see that full rebound and travel. But the airlines are

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Speaker 1: certainly banking on it. They've added tons of new routes

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Speaker 1: for summer. Two. Well, let's talk about two. I've been

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Speaker 1: really surprised how well the airline stocks have held up

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Speaker 1: over the last few days. They'd been bounded batted, of

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Speaker 1: course over the last few months, but they needs to

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Speaker 1: be holding up now. And the expectation, as you say,

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Speaker 1: is that there's going to be a huge rebound in

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Speaker 1: demand for the summer. My question to you is, though,

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Speaker 1: when are we going to know how strong that that rebound?

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Speaker 1: Is a dootally, and I see it in the data

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Speaker 1: when I talk to the airlines as well, and they

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Speaker 1: obviously have real time revenue models that are giving this

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Speaker 1: giving us this information that people are booking super close

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Speaker 1: to the point of departure. So when are we actually

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Speaker 1: going to start understanding what summer bookings really look like?

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Speaker 1: You know, it's gonna be in the until the spring.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a dark winner in terms of just uncertainty. But

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Speaker 1: as we see COVID pills are going to be coming

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Speaker 1: out that will hopefully cut you know, the impact of

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Speaker 1: COVID infections and you know, really take down that ten

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Speaker 1: day quarrantine window, which is a big obstacle to most travelers,

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Speaker 1: you know, who simply can't afford to extend a trip

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Speaker 1: by ten days when they travel. So I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of breakthroughs that are gonna happen. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: learn more about this virus and and really learn how

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Speaker 1: much protection the vaccine and boosters give us. So I

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Speaker 1: don't anticipate until April time frame, but I know the

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Speaker 1: airlines are bullish. Delta turn to profit this passporter which

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Speaker 1: almost you know, a fraction of their international travel, which

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Speaker 1: historically has been their bread and butter. So, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: barring any curveballs, which we've seen time and time again

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Speaker 1: this pandemic, I do think summer two is going to

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Speaker 1: be the year that people really get back out there,

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Speaker 1: take two week long trips and and spend some of

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Speaker 1: that cash that they've been stockpiling. And those three complier

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Speaker 1: Miles Bran, I'd like to talk a little bit about

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Speaker 1: how the travel companies are utilizing points and loyalty programs

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Speaker 1: to try to incentivize travel um and activity. Look, what

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Speaker 1: are some of the more creative changes that you've seen

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Speaker 1: two points programs over the course of the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years, and are they starting to work? Yeah? I

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Speaker 1: mean so the airline's basically survived this huge downturn by

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Speaker 1: selling and mortgaging their loyalty programs for cheap cash. And

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Speaker 1: you know they've done that in the past. So these

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Speaker 1: loyalty programs in many cases are worth more than the

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Speaker 1: plane as themselves. At the airlines are brilliant marketing schemes.

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Speaker 1: You know, the airlines have been very flexible. It's even

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Speaker 1: more flexible to use your points to book a trip,

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Speaker 1: you can cancel and get them all back. In most

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Speaker 1: cases with airlines, you know, the airlines tried to do

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Speaker 1: that with paid tickets, but you know, if you book

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Speaker 1: basic economy, you're gonna get a voucher that you may

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Speaker 1: not be able to use that might expire. So points

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Speaker 1: have actually become even more valuable in my opinion because

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Speaker 1: they give extra flexibility. You know, we've seen most of

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Speaker 1: the airlines extend elite status now for a second year

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Speaker 1: as to not you know, disenfranchise those you know X

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Speaker 1: business travelers who used to bring them tons of cash

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00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: and probably will again soon. They didn't want to just

432
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: completely uh you know, uh say no to them and

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00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: drop them to the lowest levels. And there's just been

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00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,719
Speaker 1: lots of promotions whether about you know, for people who

435
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 1: aren't traveling to to go shopping online, huge credit card

436
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 1: sign up bonuses. So I don't think the days of

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00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 1: points and miles being valuable or over anytime soon. Well,

438
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: and Iran, I'm looking at a ski trip out West

439
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: in a couple of months and I can I check

440
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: flights literally every day and they're so expensive. Thank god

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00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: for points, because I don't think I'd be able to

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00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 1: afford it otherwise. When can we expect prices to come down?

443
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: You know? It just depends by the market. It's it's

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00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: all supplying demand with airlines. Um. You know, you can

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00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: still get screaming cheap international deals. Even booking now for

446
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: Europe next summer. We've seen you know, business last Europe

447
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: be four or five, six, seven thousand dollars. You can

448
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 1: all last summer I was flying for. You can easily

449
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: find round trip business class to Europe. So wow, okay,

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00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: So Brian, on that note, I know Tom Keene is

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00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 1: somewhere out there watching or listening to this. Where where

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00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 1: should he buy his ticket next? What's cheap? Well, I

453
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: mean Europe's cheap, and I think Europe next summer, you know,

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00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 1: and not even in the summer. I love Europe in

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00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: the shoulder season April May or September, October, UM. But

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00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 1: you know, it really depends. I do recommend people wait

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00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 1: because you can, you know, unless you like the process

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00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: of planning a trip, which I do believe is good

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00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: for mental health, even just having something booked if you're

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00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: not even gonna take it. But you know, things change

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00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: so rapidly that you know, when you're buying tickets, I

462
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 1: would wait and see what the situation is, you know.

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00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: Sixty ninety days out from your trip. It's really just

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00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: a point. I hope Tom keene heard that, not just

465
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 1: waiting for an entry point point in the market, waiting

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00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: for an entry point into the travel space. Thank you

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00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: so much to Brian Kelly, the Points Guy, founder and CEO.

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00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join

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00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on

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00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six

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00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene in. This is Bloomberg