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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's

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Speaker 1: bringing out guest of this morning, Rebecca Pattison Bridge. What

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Speaker 1: a director of investment research. Rebecca. Fantastic to start the

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Speaker 1: show with you today, so thank you for joining us.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with that one little line from Chairman Powell,

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Speaker 1: the run up in Bonnio to statement of confidence. Do

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Speaker 1: you agree with that for now? Absolutely? Yes. I mean

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Speaker 1: you're having a huge fiscal stimulus, huge monetary stimulus. Um.

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Speaker 1: It's not surprising given the issuance coming and the recovery coming,

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Speaker 1: that bond yields are going to be higher and we're

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Speaker 1: going to see the curve steeper. Rebecca, your colleague Bob

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Speaker 1: Prince has talked about the chair lenges of working at

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Speaker 1: the zero bound. I think we're creeping away from zero bound.

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Speaker 1: How urgent is it for the investment community to get

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Speaker 1: back to normal? Well, we can actually calculate a real

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Speaker 1: sharp ratio. I mean, can we sustain this artificiality we're in,

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Speaker 1: or does Ray Dalio, Bob Prince and Rebecca Petterson have

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Speaker 1: to get back to something different. Well, we like to

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Speaker 1: think that we can find opportunities regardless of the economic

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Speaker 1: environment we're in, so we don't need to get back

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Speaker 1: to something different. But certainly a lot of investors would

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Speaker 1: be thrilled to have bond yields that could give them

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Speaker 1: some income and return and diversification the way it did

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Speaker 1: decades ago. I don't think we're going to get to

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Speaker 1: that place anytime soon. Um. You know, as you all

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Speaker 1: talked about at the top of the hour, Chairman Pale

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Speaker 1: is being very clear that he's not unhappy with rising

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Speaker 1: bond yields for now. He is very happy to see

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Speaker 1: inflation coming back. And I think that's the big thing

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Speaker 1: we want to be watching this year is do we

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Speaker 1: get an inflation surprise us on the upside thanks to

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Speaker 1: everything we're seeing, the recovering economy, the fiscal and monetary stimulus,

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Speaker 1: the new FED framework, and as you just mentioned, and

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Speaker 1: this is a secondary factor but still really important, what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing with global supply chains. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: a longer background factor, but it's definitely an inflationary one.

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Speaker 1: All right, we'll get to that in one second. I

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Speaker 1: do want to ask you about Ray Dalio, your colleague,

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Speaker 1: speaking earlier this week in a LinkedIn post, saying that

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Speaker 1: about five percent of the top one tho SMP stocks.

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Speaker 1: Uh what top with thousand stocks in the United States,

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Speaker 1: I should say, are in bubble territory. How does this end?

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Speaker 1: Do these continue to climb upward or can they sort

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Speaker 1: of be deflated without a broader correction? Well, agreed. We

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Speaker 1: we try to look for bubbles all the time across

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Speaker 1: every asset class, and as Ray said, we see maybe

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Speaker 1: as much as ten or fifteen percent actually of total

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Speaker 1: US stocks in what we define as bubble territory. These

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Speaker 1: are mainly smaller emerging technology companies, often that have not

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Speaker 1: had sustained profits yet, um a lot of leverage money

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Speaker 1: going into these things. You know, bubbles can keep going

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Speaker 1: up in the short term, but when you see all

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Speaker 1: these indicators aligning, it tells you that their days are numbered.

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Speaker 1: While a takedown the broader market, given how small this is,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't need to, but it's definitely something we're keeping

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Speaker 1: an eye on overall, the total SMP does not appear

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Speaker 1: to be in a bubble in our view, you know, Rebecca,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest here, Rydal you can pontificate about bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: but he and I are. Knowledge on currency equivalences is

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Speaker 1: about zero. And I'm going to suggest Mr Dale, you

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Speaker 1: probably got a brief from the adult in the rum,

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Speaker 1: Rebecca Patterson on currency equivalency? How can bitcoin be a currency?

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Speaker 1: What is it? I wouldn't call bitcoin an alternative currency.

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Speaker 1: I think if anything, it's an alternative to gold or

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Speaker 1: a digital gold. I think that would be the better comparison. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, you do have the same or similar supply constraints,

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Speaker 1: and it is something that investors have been looking to

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Speaker 1: as they worry about fiat currencies being devalued by all

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Speaker 1: this central bank printing. But bitcoin, you know, look, it's

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Speaker 1: if you're speculating on it. A lot of people out

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Speaker 1: there have made a lot of money on it. UM

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Speaker 1: As an institutional investor, I think we don't know yet

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Speaker 1: if it's going to be digital gold it Maybe it

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Speaker 1: may be over time, but I don't think we can

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Speaker 1: say that with confidence yet, And that affects our view

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Speaker 1: on whether or not we think our clients should own

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Speaker 1: it all right, so going forward will be the trigger

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Speaker 1: that will signify that this is digital gold, and we'll

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Speaker 1: give a green light to Bridgewater to start investing client

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Speaker 1: money in it. Well, I don't think there's one green

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Speaker 1: light that would have Bridgewater invest in it, but I

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Speaker 1: think there are a couple of things we'd definitely be

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Speaker 1: watching carefully. First, we wanted to see lower volatility. I mean,

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Speaker 1: right now, bitcoin can move ten percent on a tweet.

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Speaker 1: That's not exactly a storehold of wealth for most institutional investors.

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Speaker 1: So the volatility of bitcoin is about ten times that

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Speaker 1: of your dollar, it's still double that of the Venezuelan bolivar.

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Speaker 1: So that gives you an idea. You want to see

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Speaker 1: a lower volatility, more stable asset if you want to

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Speaker 1: consider it as a store old of wealth, of diversifier.

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Speaker 1: I think. Secondly, and these are related, you want to

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Speaker 1: see greater liquidity, and I think, and that takes me

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Speaker 1: the third thing, which is regulatory certainty. The more you

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Speaker 1: get a real regulatory ecosystem developing around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,

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Speaker 1: the more other types of investors are going to be

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Speaker 1: comfortable coming in. That's going to bring the liquidity, that's

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Speaker 1: going to reduce the volatility. So I guess if there

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Speaker 1: were one thing I were watching first, it would be

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Speaker 1: seeing more regulatory certainty, and I'm not sure when that's

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Speaker 1: going to come in the US. Really important comments Rebect,

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Speaker 1: We're always great to catch you out with you. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Rebettica Pacis, and that Rich Water, director of Investment Research.

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Speaker 1: Right now. Of the politics at the moment, it's a

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Speaker 1: very important to speak to a politician who actually had

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Speaker 1: a payroll of meat and worked in a company. It

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Speaker 1: is Charter any X Films of Milton, Wisconsin. Brian Style

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Speaker 1: knows it well. A Republican from Wisconsin. Think Paul Ryan's

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Speaker 1: old district Conection Style. What does business need from Washington?

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Speaker 1: Now we've got to find a middle ground. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get a stimulus, you're not in power. What does business

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Speaker 1: need from Washington? I think number one, we need to

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Speaker 1: see our schools reopened. I talked to employers across the country.

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Speaker 1: One of their largest struggles is finding workers. Our labor

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Speaker 1: participation rate in the United States just over six is

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Speaker 1: about the lowest since the Carter administration. The number of things,

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Speaker 1: number one thing we can do to free up the

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Speaker 1: labor market is to get our children back in school.

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Speaker 1: Allow a lot of these parents with young children to

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Speaker 1: return to the workforce. The vaccination program is clearly succeeding.

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Speaker 1: Where do you perceive your district, the southern part of Wisconsin.

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Speaker 1: Where do you perceive at the end of this summer?

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we keep making progress. More and more folks sixty

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Speaker 1: five years and older are getting their vaccines. My mom

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Speaker 1: and dad got their first vaccine in line. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a positive sign. We're also seeing the numbers

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Speaker 1: of total COVID P sittivity come down. That's positive. If

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Speaker 1: we continue to see this, we're moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: And again, I think this is further evidence that we

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Speaker 1: need to get our children back in school, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's the number one thing we can do for

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Speaker 1: our economy across the country. As a parent of two

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Speaker 1: boys who are school age, I agree with you. It

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Speaker 1: has definitely been a devastating year to have them out

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Speaker 1: of school. In order to get the economy backup and running,

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Speaker 1: pretty much across the board, people agree that there needs

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Speaker 1: to be some sort of assistance. How do you feel

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Speaker 1: about this? One point nine trillion dollar plan, given your position,

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Speaker 1: your history with the manufacturing industry, and your expectation and

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Speaker 1: hope of further edification of these areas later on in

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Speaker 1: the year, potentially, I'm very concerned that there's a mismatch

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Speaker 1: with the fiscal policy here in Washington, d c. Against

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Speaker 1: the needs that are needed in our country. We need

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Speaker 1: to make sure that we're driving forward with the vaccine.

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Speaker 1: But what we don't need to do is overstimulate the

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Speaker 1: economy with excessive spending that's not relative to the actual coronavirus.

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Speaker 1: For example, in this bill, out of the billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars being put towards education, only five per cent of

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Speaker 1: the fun from this bill will be spent in one

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Speaker 1: We need to reopen our schools. Today, what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: as a one point nine trillion dollar liberal wish list

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Speaker 1: rather than a targeted in direct But I don't mean

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Speaker 1: to interrupt here, but Coxon, this is really really important.

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Speaker 1: Do you support the Democrats in the allocation to small

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Speaker 1: business and individual income replacement, income substitution, in rent substitution.

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Speaker 1: Right now, what we're seeing is rather than a targeted approach,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing abroad brushstrokes, so individuals will receive checks where

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Speaker 1: maybe the couple together will be making over two hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. That's far in excess of what's actually needed.

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Speaker 1: We needed to have this targeted to those people who

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Speaker 1: have been negatively impacted. Congressman, a lot of people are saying, though, look,

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Speaker 1: borrowing costs are so low. Yes, they're rising, there's still

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Speaker 1: historically low for the United States. Why not borrow now?

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Speaker 1: Get our economy running hot and generate the economic growth

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Speaker 1: that can pay down all this step more easily and

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Speaker 1: not potentially risk people staying out of work for longer.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how much do you rely on that type

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Speaker 1: of argument? I think these are the questions that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to have for Chairman Powell and Committee today.

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Speaker 1: The question is are we going to overheat the economy again?

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Speaker 1: We got to remember that over the past twelve months,

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Speaker 1: Congress has allocated over four trillion dollars related to coronavirus.

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Speaker 1: Of that, three trillion has been spent, one trillion has

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Speaker 1: yet to be spent. Adding another one point nine trillion

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Speaker 1: on top of that begins to leverage the future of

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Speaker 1: our children and grandchildren will ultimately be held to pay

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Speaker 1: for this debt. What do you think constraints further spending? Congressman,

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Speaker 1: what do you think it is? Do you think it

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Speaker 1: is the bond market rates? Do you think it is inflation?

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Speaker 1: What do you think ultimately should constrain spending down in Washington?

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Speaker 1: I think you need to have a needs based approach

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Speaker 1: as we're looking at funds to reopen our schools. I'm

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Speaker 1: supportive of getting the fund to reopen our schools today,

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Speaker 1: but in a bill like this, we're looking at only

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Speaker 1: five percent of those funds for education being spent this year.

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Speaker 1: So that's a broad brush stroke approach rather than targeting

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Speaker 1: the need of today making sure we're rolling out the vaccine,

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Speaker 1: reopening our economy safely. So it's it fair to say

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Speaker 1: it would be ideological. It would be political and not financial.

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Speaker 1: The constraints around what you think we should and should

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Speaker 1: not do well. I think what we've seen before is

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Speaker 1: an approach to a needs based approach. So when you

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Speaker 1: saw congress past five coronavirus relief bills, all in a

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Speaker 1: bipartisan fashion, it was driven by the needs of the country.

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Speaker 1: This bill that we're looking at, one point nine trillion

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Speaker 1: dollar bill that by all indications, will be a party

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Speaker 1: line vote here in Washington, d C. Is not focused

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Speaker 1: on the needs of the country. It's focused on political

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Speaker 1: priorities of the Democrats that they're trying to advance under

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Speaker 1: the guise of coronavirus relief. Do you feel penerless to

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Speaker 1: stop it. We're having conversations trying to win the hearts

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Speaker 1: and minds of individuals and have them call their elected representatives.

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Speaker 1: This is not a done deal until it passes. We

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Speaker 1: need to make sure everyone understands what's in this bill

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Speaker 1: so that they can call their representatives and see if

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Speaker 1: we can put a stop to this trying. The problem

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Speaker 1: you've got, Congressman, forgive me, sir, is that the electorate

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Speaker 1: like kit done. They looking at the poll link. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's one thing to to to like free money. I

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Speaker 1: don't have a problem with and understand it's not hard

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Speaker 1: to understand that people like receiving a check from the

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Speaker 1: federal government. But at sometime we have to have an

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Speaker 1: adult conversation that that check eventually comes back and do

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Speaker 1: I'm very concerned about what our debt situation here is

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Speaker 1: in the United States America approaching thirty trillion dollars and

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Speaker 1: if we enter an inflationary period, payments on that debt

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Speaker 1: will begin to squeeze important domestic spending. Congressman to come

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Speaker 1: as you need to continue, Thank you, sir, fat time

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Speaker 1: bron style that of Wisconsin. We've got a thirty year

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Speaker 1: buying out six basis points. It's a huge move two

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Speaker 1: point to four percent rounded up. David Leebos is very

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Speaker 1: aware of that at JP Morgan Asset Manager. David, Let's

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Speaker 1: go right there where the data is moving. What is

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Speaker 1: the signal of the long end of the curve, far

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Speaker 1: out the curb moving to a higher yield and reduced prices.

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Speaker 1: So I think what you're seeing is as we get

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Speaker 1: more and more evidence that the reflation trade is taking

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Speaker 1: hold and the economy is really reopening here and then

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Speaker 1: should continue to reopen over the course of the coming months,

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Speaker 1: you're you're seeing assets begin to reprice and you know,

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Speaker 1: frankly below one percent on the tenure where the thirty

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Speaker 1: year has been trading. Those rates were reflecting a world

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Speaker 1: where we were still in lockdown. And I think what

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Speaker 1: you're seeing is that investors are finally beginning to wake

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Speaker 1: up to the fact is going to be a year

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Speaker 1: where the global economy booms were We're getting more stimulus

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Speaker 1: here in the United States. It sounds like policy makers

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Speaker 1: around the world are going to remain accommodative over the

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Speaker 1: course of the next twelve months. And I think again,

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Speaker 1: you know, fixed income was was too rich for that

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Speaker 1: type of environment, and so again, very healthy repricing and

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Speaker 1: a pretty positive story when you take a step back

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Speaker 1: and think about what's really going on here, and sometimes

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Speaker 1: talking to clients it's like therapy. You've got to keep

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Speaker 1: them in the market, tell them why they've got to

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Speaker 1: stay in the market. What's the conversation light right now?

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Speaker 1: So you make a great point about the wall of worry,

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Speaker 1: and and many have fallen off that wall when when

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Speaker 1: trying to climate um, the conversation right now is really

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Speaker 1: about inflation and how the FED is going to respond.

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Speaker 1: I think the FED obviously was was spectacular in what

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Speaker 1: they did in in terms of opening the credit facilities

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Speaker 1: and re engaging with with fairly significant q E. But

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Speaker 1: when we think about that that shift in their framework

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Speaker 1: to an approach characterized by average inflation targeting, nobody really

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Speaker 1: knows what that's going to look like. It's very difficult

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Speaker 1: to build expectations around how the FED is going to respond,

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Speaker 1: and so the biggest concern right now is effectively the

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Speaker 1: inverse of what we talked about for the better part

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Speaker 1: of the prior cycle. I mean, how many times did

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Speaker 1: did we have the conversation of the FED wants to

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Speaker 1: raise rates and the market says no way. Um, we're

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Speaker 1: beginning to see the opposite, right the market is beginning

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Speaker 1: to say how long will the FED stand? Pat are

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Speaker 1: there forecasts realistic? That's really what's being called into question

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Speaker 1: and dominating client conversations right now. So dominating the conversations

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Speaker 1: we had, oh yeah coming into twenty one. In fact,

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Speaker 1: for most of the back half was about the bomb

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Speaker 1: how strategy having a second growth on one side, having

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Speaker 1: a signal county on the other, as that whiting as

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Speaker 1: that till that emphasis shifted divide. You know, we we

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Speaker 1: are increasingly adding more cyclical assets to portfolios. But the

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Speaker 1: one thing we do recognize is that big bursts in

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Speaker 1: in cyclicality and big bursts and value tend to be

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Speaker 1: relatively short lived. If you go back to really the

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Speaker 1: only sustained period of value out performance was what we

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Speaker 1: saw in the early two thousands. The rest of the

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Speaker 1: time it tends to be you know, here today and

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Speaker 1: gone tomorrow, so taking a bit more exposure on the

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Speaker 1: cyclical side. We do think that those assets remain attractive

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Speaker 1: on a relative valuation basis and should do pretty well

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Speaker 1: given our expectations for the economy this year. But importantly

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Speaker 1: not running away from growth, if anything, rethinking the composition

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Speaker 1: of our growth exposure. We still like tech for the

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Speaker 1: long run, We still like healthcare for the long run.

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Speaker 1: We just don't want to own those super growthy mega

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Speaker 1: cap names that obviously performed so well in We think

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Speaker 1: that those might tread water here, David, we were talking

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Speaker 1: about Cathy Wood earlier, the poster child for some of

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Speaker 1: these high flyers, particularly in the text space, and in

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Speaker 1: her interview yesterday with Bloomberg, she said, the strongest bull

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Speaker 1: markets I've been in are built on walls of worry.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree? Do we have enough of a wall

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Speaker 1: of worry to keep this bullvarket going? Absolutely? I think

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Speaker 1: you know. When when I was on a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: one of the things we talked about was the fact

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Speaker 1: that a pullback was becoming consensus. Right. People are very

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Speaker 1: skeptical about the durability of what's happening in markets, and

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Speaker 1: to me that that's always, you know, a pretty positive signal.

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Speaker 1: So I think as long as people are asking the questions,

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Speaker 1: how is the FED going to respond, what is inflation

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Speaker 1: going to look like, what's the outlook for fiscal policy?

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Speaker 1: Are we going to overheat? I mean, these are very

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Speaker 1: relevant questions for investors to be asking at the current juncture.

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Speaker 1: And I think at the end of the day, again,

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Speaker 1: as long as we're viewing this rally with it with

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Speaker 1: a healthy amount of skepticism, that suggests to me that

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Speaker 1: it continues to have legs. We are not necessarily seeing

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Speaker 1: outside of certain pockets in the market, really that that

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Speaker 1: amount of it, or that that exuberance that makes us uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: We think everybody's still pretty measured, and again that makes

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Speaker 1: us pretty positive on risk assets as we look across

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Speaker 1: the next twelve eighteen months. David, thank you. I love

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Speaker 1: how committed David Lebovitz is the JP Morgan Blue Wolves.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't that just work just right? It's Jamie's so proud, David,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, David Levitz there JP Morgan as in management.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. I know we this time that we will

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Speaker 1: create also the Office of the National Director of Food

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Speaker 1: and Nutrition at the White House, almost with a seat

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Speaker 1: on the National Security Council next to the President, and

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Speaker 1: making sure that we bring the resources of every single department.

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Speaker 1: Food is more than the U, S the A. We

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Speaker 1: have all learned from the pandemic and we will never

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Speaker 1: be the same after this pandemic is over. Jose Andres

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Speaker 1: their World Central Kitchen. Of course. David Rubinstein show Peer

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Speaker 1: to Peer Conversation tonight nine pm and Mr Rubinstein joins

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Speaker 1: us right now. David, thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 1: us interview because Lisa and I have viscerally seen the

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Speaker 1: hunger on the streets of New York. How are we

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Speaker 1: different in this pandemic? How are we different after this pandemic?

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Speaker 1: According to Mr andreas Well, his view is that is

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Speaker 1: amazing that in a country as wealthy as ours, we

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Speaker 1: don't really distribute food very well in a situation like this.

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Speaker 1: Who would have thought you'd have gigantic food lines in

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Speaker 1: Dallas or Los Angeles with people who are middle class

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Speaker 1: not having enough food. So he's worried about it, and

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Speaker 1: what he'd like to do is to have a White

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Speaker 1: House advisor on food near the President who can really

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Speaker 1: focus on on the food distribution and make sure that

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Speaker 1: people have appropriate types of food. Um. As you know,

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Speaker 1: he's a great chef, a world class chef, but he's

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Speaker 1: spending most of his time now on humanitarian types efforts,

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Speaker 1: including feeding people around the world when there are tragedies

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Speaker 1: in their countries. We have obesity in America because food

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Speaker 1: is so darn cheap. If I go to asle five

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Speaker 1: of my fancy whole foods, there's fourteen choices of rice.

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Speaker 1: Thirteen choice is a mustard. How do we translate that

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Speaker 1: to an empoverished world. Well, that's the problem in whole foods,

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Speaker 1: which I think is great is uh is terrific for

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Speaker 1: people that can afford it, But many people in this

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Speaker 1: country and around the world really can't afford something like that.

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Speaker 1: And it's a sad situation where when you have, even

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Speaker 1: in this country, a crisis like the pandemic, you have

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Speaker 1: to feed people who normally have food and access to food.

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Speaker 1: We don't really have a very good distribution system for

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Speaker 1: a pandemic like this. Well, David, it goes beyond just

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Speaker 1: the pandemic. I mean, I'm thinking about food deserts, and

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Speaker 1: that was definitely raised as an issue is people can't

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Speaker 1: necessarily even buy easily some of the fresh foods that

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Speaker 1: you're talking about. You said appropriate foods, right, it's not

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Speaker 1: just anything to eat, it's something that will actually be healthy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what is Joss Andres proposing about what to

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Speaker 1: do with those food desserts that we're seeing in many

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Speaker 1: areas around the country. Well, there's no one simple answer.

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Speaker 1: One of the things he points out is that there

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Speaker 1: hasn't been a food conference or nutrition conference in the

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Speaker 1: White House for fifty years, and he thinks it would

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Speaker 1: be a good idea. He thinks the Department of aggriga

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Speaker 1: Ulture shouldn't be the only people worrying about food, and

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Speaker 1: he wants to make certain that people eat healthy food.

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Speaker 1: Even if you have people who are not wealthy and

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Speaker 1: they get enough food to eat, that's not the same

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Speaker 1: as eating healthy food which enable them to live longer.

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Speaker 1: At the moment, upper income people are focused more on

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Speaker 1: healthy food than people who are at the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the economic structure. There's also a question about the inflation

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Speaker 1: that we've seen in food prices and some measures up

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Speaker 1: to the highest levels since two thousand and thirteen. How

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Speaker 1: does this affect the discussion. Well, there's no doubt that

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Speaker 1: it makes it more difficult for people at the bottom

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Speaker 1: to eat adequately. In the end, what everybody wants to

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Speaker 1: do is to live a healthy and happy life, and

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Speaker 1: one of the best ways of doing that is eating

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Speaker 1: well and and eating healthy. And he's focused on that.

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Speaker 1: It's an interesting phenomenon that he could make a lot

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Speaker 1: of money as a restaurant tour He has about fifty restaurants.

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Speaker 1: He's closed many of them because of the pandemic. But

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Speaker 1: he's focused on his World's Central Kitchen, which goes to

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Speaker 1: any place in the world that has a starvation problem

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Speaker 1: and tries to feed these people without really a lot

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Speaker 1: of government assistance. David Mr Solomon Goldman Sex is speaking

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Speaker 1: right now at the credits WE conference, and he touches

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Speaker 1: upon something that is immediate with your years of perspective.

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Speaker 1: With the hundreds and hundreds of companies at Carlisle Group

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Speaker 1: has advised where are you on this shift to work

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Speaker 1: from home? HSBC says they will trim their office square footage.

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Speaker 1: Mr Solomon says remote work is not a new normal.

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Speaker 1: Just in ambiration your thoughts, please, I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: likely that we're gonna go back in the next five

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Speaker 1: years or so, or even ten years to the work

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Speaker 1: pattern we've had before. It's amazing that in one year

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Speaker 1: we've learned that we can work at home and work remotely.

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Speaker 1: So I think most employers will probably be happy to

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Speaker 1: have their employees work remotely for some time. I think

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Speaker 1: there is a value of going to the office seeing

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Speaker 1: your colleagues, particularly for younger people who need mentorship. But

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Speaker 1: I think we've changed the way we've worked dramatically and

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Speaker 1: probably forever as a result of the pandemic. David, congratulations

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Speaker 1: on getting your first shot this week for the vaccination.

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Speaker 1: I know Tom Keene has had both of his, and

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Speaker 1: it's a very exciting time, sort of seeing the light

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Speaker 1: potentially of a normal world emerging. When do you hope

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Speaker 1: to get back to the office to see your employees

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Speaker 1: there with a bit more normalcy. I think it's unlikely

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Speaker 1: that employees at financial service firms and and and office

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Speaker 1: firms on the kind of that I work at, are

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Speaker 1: probably going to go back in any real measurable way

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Speaker 1: until the fall, and it may not even be until

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Speaker 1: next year. Nobody knows for certain, but I don't think

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Speaker 1: anybody is thinking they're gonna go back five days a

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Speaker 1: week the way they did before, or like me, travel

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Speaker 1: as much as we did before. You can do so

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Speaker 1: much with this kind of technology, So I think the

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Speaker 1: days of my traveling two forty days a year around

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Speaker 1: the world are probably over. David rubin Sein, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much to healthy and we appreciate your guidance. Carlisle Group,

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Speaker 1: co founder and co chair Peer to Peer Conversations, Always

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Speaker 1: Enlightening on Bloomberg Television tonight at nine pm in New York.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays from seven to ten a m. Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from

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Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg