Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never rest our starters.
Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal.
Speaker 1: I'm here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my
Speaker 1: friend for the last time in the regular season.
Speaker 2: But the first time in twenty twenty five. Thank you, Hi.
Speaker 3: I like the first time better. I'm kind of like
Speaker 3: a fresh starts than a like sacrifice.
Speaker 2: Oh but we're not making fresh starts, Cynthia.
Speaker 1: We're finishing out this season, although I'm bringing you back
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five if we can afford you.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Let's let's look at the records from last week. That's
Speaker 1: why I'm talking about not a fresh star. Cynthia went
Speaker 1: to and one great pick with the Raiders, Cruised loved.
Speaker 1: I love the Raiders. I'm annoyed I didn't take that
Speaker 1: the bucks Man even more. Cruise City they covered by
Speaker 1: about thirty points. You missed on the Rams. So you're
Speaker 1: two and one twenty seven and twenty four on the season.
Speaker 1: You're won back of me. I went one and two.
Speaker 1: I'm now five over on the season. I said before
Speaker 1: last week that I was so confident in my picks
Speaker 1: that if I ended up with a one and two
Speaker 1: I would it would shake my confidence low, but there's
Speaker 1: an aster.
Speaker 2: I'm not shook. I was gonna say, I hope not.
Speaker 1: Even in the slightest because I took two teams in
Speaker 1: the Broncos and the Falcons, that I thought would win
Speaker 1: straight up and were both underdogs three to four points.
Speaker 1: You know what, at the end of sixty minutes they
Speaker 1: were tied. So you lose your money. I get it,
Speaker 1: But you don't feel like if you lost on two
Speaker 1: overtime teams that were underdogs, that you were like on
Speaker 1: the right wrong side. And by the way, my little
Speaker 1: extra pick the Gregstra was the Bills, who covered eight
Speaker 1: and half. I love the Gregtra very easily, so feeling
Speaker 1: good on and this week I'm feeling good too. My
Speaker 1: only problem was I have too many games I like.
Speaker 1: I love Week eighteen. I don't know how you feel
Speaker 1: about it. But when I was actually betting real money
Speaker 1: before I could come here, before you worked here, I
Speaker 1: thought the best weeks of opportunity of the season were
Speaker 1: weeks one.
Speaker 2: Two and eighteen.
Speaker 1: Because there's just the most that I think, there's the
Speaker 1: most uncertainty that you can feel better about.
Speaker 3: I would just say you just have to be disciplined
Speaker 3: because the problem that we have is that we're forced
Speaker 3: to pick all of the.
Speaker 2: Games, yes, and on this show, though not.
Speaker 3: On this show but on Game Day View at other places.
Speaker 3: So I get frustrated and people like you you should
Speaker 3: have known better than on Tuesday when your scores came
Speaker 3: out that blah blah blah. I'm like, didn't you see
Speaker 3: the update after you told Like, yes, for example, you
Speaker 3: know Jim Harbaugh could rest the starters after the results
Speaker 3: of some Saturday games, So again you have to be
Speaker 3: malleable and flexible, like, just don't pick that one as
Speaker 3: one of your confidence ones.
Speaker 1: Yes, So I agree it was a week where things
Speaker 1: could change. That Chargers example is perfect that if the
Speaker 1: Bengals win on Saturday, that will give the Chargers more
Speaker 1: motivation to go for the seed because they're trying to
Speaker 1: pass Steelers. And you got to stay on top of
Speaker 1: all this. I feel like we have a pretty good idea.
Speaker 1: There's some crazy lines out there, like the Titans are
Speaker 1: favored over the Texans, the Eagles in the in the
Speaker 1: Giants are very close, the Bills and the Patriots, and
Speaker 1: this is all because of resting starters.
Speaker 2: I'm curious where you want to go.
Speaker 1: With your first pick, because, like I said, I had
Speaker 1: a hard time narrowing it down. I like about six
Speaker 1: games a lot, and my only struggle is where I'm
Speaker 1: narrowing it down.
Speaker 2: But where you go?
Speaker 3: I think that my first one right now? What are
Speaker 3: you see for Cincinnati?
Speaker 2: Cincinnati? That's a bold one because this is a normal game.
Speaker 1: But that makes sense normal game because there are minus
Speaker 1: two at Pittsburgh, all right.
Speaker 3: I think that Cincinnati wins that wow, and they cover
Speaker 3: the spread on that one. And the reason I'm starting
Speaker 3: with one that's not a crazy, you know, not a
Speaker 3: crazy line, one like the Cleveland and Baltimore line seventeen
Speaker 3: and a half points is I know that Cincinnati they
Speaker 3: need to win in order to stay playoff relevant. I
Speaker 3: know that Joe Burrow has been at least recently, like
Speaker 3: the joint Jamar Chase t. Higgins situation has been so
Speaker 3: fruitful for them that I just think that that's a like,
Speaker 3: if you were gonna give me like a first half line,
Speaker 3: then I would go for, Like, you know, I would
Speaker 3: love like Baltimore to be winning by at least nine
Speaker 3: and a half points, but we're not. Now we're going
Speaker 3: Cincinnati wins by two.
Speaker 2: I kind of forgot about that Baltimore game.
Speaker 1: Is that the number was so big that I didn't
Speaker 1: even look at it and yeticulous, And yet that's not
Speaker 1: a crazy pick. I'm on the opposite side, although I'm
Speaker 1: getting less confident about Pittsburgh not for this show. That's
Speaker 1: my least confident pick of the week. That's just a
Speaker 1: kind flip. I just I just don't have face in
Speaker 1: that Bengals. But I've been on the wrong side of
Speaker 1: the Bengals and you've been on the right side in
Speaker 1: recent weeks, So don't listen to me. I am going
Speaker 1: to the next biggest point spread of the week after
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and that's Bucks. That was actually I wrote
Speaker 1: down seven games I liked, and it was the only
Speaker 1: game that I was ultimately.
Speaker 2: Like, I will sleep Zaki. Yeah, yeah, Now the Bucks.
Speaker 1: They made the number huge to try to get anyone
Speaker 1: to go on the same side.
Speaker 2: It's thirteen and a half, and so that's.
Speaker 3: Aggressive crazy though, because if it was fourteen and a half,
Speaker 3: I would feel very differently. Thirteen and a half is
Speaker 3: two scores, it is and touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Obviously, obviously throughout this week, I'm looking at teams that
Speaker 1: are playing for something and teams that aren't or arresting players.
Speaker 1: This is an extreme example, but there's some numbers to
Speaker 1: it too. Spencer Rattler, if he was eligible, has been
Speaker 1: pressured on more of his dropbacks than any quarterback in
Speaker 1: the entire NFL this season. That's partly because he holds
Speaker 1: the ball. Do you know what team has the highest
Speaker 1: pressure rate since Week eleven in the entire NFL?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I'm guessing that since you asked this
Speaker 3: question specifically about the Bucks, that it's the Buck.
Speaker 2: It's the Bucks.
Speaker 3: It's the Bucks.
Speaker 1: So that's right now, the team that's the best at
Speaker 1: pressuring against the quarterback who faces the most pressure, who's
Speaker 1: a rookie. That's an absolute mismatch. Then you look on
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball. The Bucks offensive line
Speaker 1: protect Baker so well, the Saints so low in pressure rate.
Speaker 1: They are one of the worst teams of all time
Speaker 1: in terms of giving up a yak yardage, something that
Speaker 1: the Bucks specialize in, even in a world where the
Speaker 1: Saints were playing better. I just think the strengths and
Speaker 1: the weaknesses are so dramatically opposed here in terms of
Speaker 1: the line play and the tackling for the Saints that
Speaker 1: I love it. I think they can cover this thing
Speaker 1: by the end of the first half. So whatever the
Speaker 1: first half line is, would I would like that as well.
Speaker 1: They want to go to the playoffs. That is my
Speaker 1: first pick. Give me your second pick.
Speaker 3: Well, let me tell you something about this pick first,
Speaker 3: because that was one that was that I was considering.
Speaker 2: You can jump on board too if we agree hard that.
Speaker 3: I know what I do. Agree hard because in a week,
Speaker 3: you know, my model's pretty conservative, and in a week
Speaker 3: where there's a seventeen and a half point spread, the
Speaker 3: fact that Tampa Bay has a higher win percentage for
Speaker 3: me than Baltimore in the situation were there and it's
Speaker 3: a relative to the spread, like they're ranked higher in that.
Speaker 3: So I mean, I don't know. I think I need
Speaker 3: to jump on board with you in that one.
Speaker 2: We've been good, not perfect. I know we miss one.
Speaker 1: I think we're about two and one or three and
Speaker 1: one when we've been on the same side this year,
Speaker 1: and I think that's fine. The idea here is we're
Speaker 1: trying to get these right for our listeners. We're on
Speaker 1: the same team. We're on the same team here. We're
Speaker 1: on the team of the listeners and I'm jumping it'll
Speaker 1: save It'll make the show shorter. So that's good for
Speaker 1: everyone if you just want to get out and about
Speaker 1: for your day. Okay, my second pick, and like I said,
Speaker 1: I like a lot of them, and so it was
Speaker 1: tough to choose between them. But the longer I looked
Speaker 1: at my Seahawks minus six and a half against the
Speaker 1: resting Rams, the more I thought, this is as if
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are playing for a playoff spot and the
Speaker 1: Rams are resting starters.
Speaker 2: Because the Seahawks really.
Speaker 1: Want to win this game, They're gonna play everyone they
Speaker 1: want to get to ten wins. Mike McDonald talked about
Speaker 1: how there's a lot of players on the team that
Speaker 1: have incentives that he wants to within the framework of
Speaker 1: winning the game, wants to help them out. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be up for it. More importantly, they're playing
Speaker 1: a team that's starting Jimmy Garoppolo, and now, as backup
Speaker 1: quarterbacks go, that's not bad. But when you're sitting Poka
Speaker 1: Nakua and Cooper Cup and you're replacing them with Xavier
Speaker 1: Smith and Jordan Winnington, and you're sitting offensive linemen, and
Speaker 1: I look at this Rams roster as someone who's been
Speaker 1: to a lot of their preseason games. There are stars
Speaker 1: and scrubs type of roster. So if you sit down
Speaker 1: Jared Vers and a couple of their best players, it's
Speaker 1: a big drop off to the undrafted free agents that
Speaker 1: are coming in.
Speaker 2: Of course, they're not really trying to win. The crowd's
Speaker 2: not gonna care.
Speaker 1: Six and a half is a lot, obviously, but I
Speaker 1: kind of was looking forward to this game if the
Speaker 1: Rams had something to play for, and I might just
Speaker 1: have picked the Seahawks to win straight up if the
Speaker 1: starters were playing because of the way the Rams offense
Speaker 1: has really taken on water lately. So do I think
Speaker 1: their backups are suddenly gonna play? Well, No, I'm going
Speaker 1: Seahawks minus six and a half.
Speaker 3: I like that pick a lot. I'm gonna pick another
Speaker 3: one just so or not, But I am hones say
Speaker 3: is that just work there? However, my one fantasy note
Speaker 3: here for like Daily would be a Blake Koram situation.
Speaker 3: I think he could have a fun week. I'm not
Speaker 3: suggesting he's going to be like, you know, a guy,
Speaker 3: if you're playing, if you're in your championships, I'm not late.
Speaker 3: But if you're playing in DFS and you want to
Speaker 3: have some fun, we can't do it. Do it for us.
Speaker 1: Yeah. The reason why I like them is I do
Speaker 1: think they've actually built up something on defense. They haven't
Speaker 1: been perfect, but over all the defense has really made strides.
Speaker 1: But their run defense has been a little up and
Speaker 1: down this year, and I love the way Quorum runs.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now you're making me a little nervous because.
Speaker 3: I'm not worried about the point. I just think it's a.
Speaker 1: Fun I'm a little worried because just because I like
Speaker 1: all these other ones so much that it's it's hard
Speaker 1: to kill one of my babies here. I wish I
Speaker 1: had more than three picks this week. We're going lots
Speaker 1: of greg stras. All right, give me your third and
Speaker 1: final pick.
Speaker 3: My third and final pick for the regular twenty twenty
Speaker 3: four season is the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2: Okay, over the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 3: Uh it's it's I have I have twelve points.
Speaker 1: I have ten here, so I'll give you two free
Speaker 1: points here on DraftKings right now.
Speaker 2: Perfect.
Speaker 3: Well, my point is my model, your model is my
Speaker 3: model has exactly My model has twelve points, which is
Speaker 3: that's considerably. That's a that's a big one for me
Speaker 3: and conservative model or over here. So that's a good
Speaker 3: one in large part because I just think between I
Speaker 3: think they need to figure out how to especially after
Speaker 3: last game. They got to write the ship. And this
Speaker 3: is the situation where with Matt Leiffleur, they're heading into
Speaker 3: the playoffs the Bears. Let's get a little spark going
Speaker 3: against against a Bears team that doesn't have a lot
Speaker 3: to play for, but you know, pride of course. But
Speaker 3: I think I think this is gonna be a good
Speaker 3: one for them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, shout out to the schedule makers.
Speaker 1: That's early, right, the Green Bay game, Yes, that is
Speaker 1: in the early windows, so they're at the same time
Speaker 1: as Washington, and they've both said that they're going to
Speaker 1: play their starters for seeding purposes and just wanting to
Speaker 1: look good. You never know on the Packers side, if
Speaker 1: they scoreboard watched and the Commander's game got out of control,
Speaker 1: but that game is only a four and a half
Speaker 1: point spread, you never know, So it's like a small
Speaker 1: bit of concern. And I do think ultimately that Washington
Speaker 1: game does get out of control, because that's going to
Speaker 1: be my third pick like that, I'm going to Washington
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. I hate not going with
Speaker 1: any underdogs this week. My next three favorite picks are underdogs.
Speaker 1: But here I'm going all favorites. I'm going to Washington
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. When the two it's the
Speaker 1: two division teams thing. When they're uneven teams, there you go,
Speaker 1: they play they play one. Dallas already won this matchup.
Speaker 1: He did, but when you looked at that matchup, they
Speaker 1: gave up four hundred and twelve yards. The Commanders ran
Speaker 1: all over them. The Cowboys have a historically bad run defense.
Speaker 1: They want to win this game. The Cowboys are not
Speaker 1: even the same team as they were four or five
Speaker 1: weeks ago. They don't have CD Lamb in this game.
Speaker 1: They don't Ezekiel Elliott. How could they come back from that? No,
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding.
Speaker 3: I just was looking to see who of their pass catchers.
Speaker 3: There's one that ranks in the top forty for me.
Speaker 3: So it's not a great outlook Brandon.
Speaker 1: Cooks, Oh, I was gonna say, like not Chalingilbert, ye, Ferguson, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not great.
Speaker 3: Ferguson, Oh, obviously he's at the tight end position. He's
Speaker 3: in like the top twenty, but like that's not great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is purely again because I like so many
Speaker 1: of the other picks, this is purely a team that's
Speaker 1: playing for something and is peaking versus a team that's
Speaker 1: ready to go home, and so a matchup that I
Speaker 1: don't think they'll take lightly because they already they already lost.
Speaker 1: And four and a half not quite enough for me. Now,
Speaker 1: that's that was hard for me though, because I don't know,
Speaker 1: like I said, because I'm having I'm going to kill
Speaker 1: some babies that most weeks would be like one of
Speaker 1: my favorite picks.
Speaker 3: What if you had to pick one more?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well I'll give you the Greg.
Speaker 3: Okay, give me my Greg extress.
Speaker 2: Here we go. Chiefs plus ten and a half.
Speaker 1: Love that, agreed. It's it's tricky picking the backups. But
Speaker 1: could the Chiefs win straight up with their backups? I
Speaker 1: think it's possible. So if you think it's possible they
Speaker 1: could win with their backups, to get ten and a
Speaker 1: half points is pretty juicy. I'm not a huge Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz fan specifically, and against that defense, that's what knocks.
Speaker 2: It out of my top three. But I really like it.
Speaker 2: I like the Panthers plus eight two.
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, are we on the same side of everything.
Speaker 2: Right this week?
Speaker 1: That's good that that's an extra one. So let's write
Speaker 1: that down as an extra. You just can't be trusting
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons in the year twenty twenty five to
Speaker 1: be favored by eight points in any.
Speaker 3: That's a ridiculous note, Like have six and a half.
Speaker 3: I think they'd get more action on it.
Speaker 2: I think that's a crazy number. The Panthers have the
Speaker 2: better quarterback.
Speaker 1: I like Michael Pennix, but I've seen enough out of
Speaker 1: Bryce Young that he's playing at a very high level.
Speaker 1: I know they got wax last week and the defense
Speaker 1: is that's why it's eight points. Yeah, And then I
Speaker 1: also like the Giants plus three. I think I'm not
Speaker 1: going to say they have a little something and Drew Locke,
Speaker 1: but I actually think that for Perfemance was kind of coming.
Speaker 1: He was a little better. They have something to play for.
Speaker 1: I think they like their coach. They're playing starters. The
Speaker 1: Eagles are resting their starters. It's not just like you're
Speaker 1: without Jalen Hurts. You're without a lot of key players
Speaker 1: at all these positions.
Speaker 2: So do you.
Speaker 3: Agree with the do you agree with the sitting sequon yes,
Speaker 3: same yes. People will say that, I'm like, They're like,
Speaker 3: he should get to choose if he wants to do it.
Speaker 3: I'm like, yeah, okay, but if he chooses to be
Speaker 3: selfish and not be the team player, then I like,
Speaker 3: and what happens if you get hurt?
Speaker 1: Like, I don't know, it's too much, you can't play.
Speaker 1: He also he also leads the NFL in rushes. This
Speaker 1: guy needs needs a break. Three forty five is a huge,
Speaker 1: huge number, all right, So that is it for my picks.
Speaker 1: Uh to recap, we are both on the Bucks minus
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. Yep, Cynthia has the Bengals minus
Speaker 1: two and the Packers minus ten. Like I said, I'm
Speaker 1: on the Bucks and then I'm also gonna be on
Speaker 1: Washington and Seattle. Seattle is minus six and as app
Speaker 1: as my main picks and my little my little extras
Speaker 1: just for fun, Denver Giants and the Panthers are my
Speaker 1: Greg Strass. I would have thrown in the Titans winning
Speaker 1: as a Greg Strow, but everyone is on my side,
Speaker 1: and that's actually now they're the favorite over the Texans.
Speaker 2: I don't even want to bother.
Speaker 3: I think I have the Texans.
Speaker 2: Forget that, forget that whole.
Speaker 3: I think we have the Texans.
Speaker 2: I have the Texans spinning. That's where we're winning.
Speaker 1: When we're talking about whether, like the Texans backups can
Speaker 1: beat Mason Rudolph, you know what's at the end of
Speaker 1: the season and you know football is back.
Speaker 2: We'll see a Sunday night