WEBVTT - Surveillance: Impeachable Offenses With Newman 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:12.960 Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.720 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg for me, 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:30.040 front and center. How do you handicap so many of 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:32.960 these big political issues? The headline coming from the team 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:35.320 over at black Rock and Russ Coast Trick, as follows, 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.239 The biggest risks are the hardest to quantify, trade friction, Brexit, 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:44.520 and US twenty elections. Black Rocks, Russ Coast Rick joining 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:46.920 me around the table right now, can monitor RUSS Good morning. 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:48.960 What do you do with that? That's your line? What 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.720 on earth do you do with it? I think all 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:53.560 you can do is try to think about the link 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:55.840 from the policy to what it may mean in the 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:57.720 real account. I mean, and some of these is too 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:01.200 far out. We can't really handicap that thousand twenty election. 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:03.400 The trade we're dealing with in real time, and what 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:07.040 we do know is that you've probably put the manufacturing 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:10.440 sector in a mode recession. Thankfully, so far, that has 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.119 not leaked over to the households sector, which is why 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.959 I think the economy is in decent shape. CNBC reporting 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:17.959 in the last twenty four hours those talks will commence, 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.920 I believe October tenth, going into October eleventh. Rus. How 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:24.600 hopeful are you the president talking up the prospect of 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.759 a deal. It's getting closer, forever closer. I think at 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.400 this point, you know, most investors will be happy with 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.720 a true snodded deal. You know. The reality is a 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:37.400 lot of these issues, particularly around technology, intellectual property, state sponsorship, 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.559 These go to the core of the Chinese financial model. 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.000 I don't think many people expect a long lasting deal. 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.000 What people would like to see is a d escalation 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:49.800 of the tension, perhaps a rollback of some of the 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:52.440 recent tariffs, and that this just goes to simmer for 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:54.720 a while and it is off of the boil. Another 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:56.480 company that would love to see that, and it's micro 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.840 On the chip maker, releasing garnings and the forecast for 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.919 profit really not good at all. The forecast for profit 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.320 damaged by the trade tension. That the stock down by 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.440 five point eight six percent in early trade in this morning. 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.440 The damage is being done. Whether you look at the 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:13.560 Micron profit forecast whether you look at the economic confidence 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:15.440 in Europe this morning for the euro Zone a four 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.080 year low. Is that what you just continue to see 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.640 as well rust in the not too distant future, just 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.880 a drip feed of more negative economic data. Jean, I 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:26.880 think you you expressed exactly in the right way. Some 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.000 damage has already been down. And even if you you 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:31.920 get a temporary truce, you know, if you're a CEO, 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.760 you're a CFO, you're thinking about your next large cap 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:36.840 on investment, You're think about where to build a factory. 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:39.920 Even if you have a temporary cessation of the friction, 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:42.640 it is very hard to have a lot of confidence 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.960 about that next decision, which means a lot of this 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:46.960 is getting put off. We've had a lot of volatility 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.200 in between, but to your point, stocks have done nothing 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.720 for eighteen months for us to have a high conviction 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:54.080 call at the moment in this market, I think the 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.000 high conviction call is there are segments of the market, 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:59.959 and I think technology has been one the US household set. 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.840 There's another where you've seen companies be able to generate, 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.639 you know, phenomenal cash flow growth, maintain very high margins 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.200 despite all the uncertainty. So we're looking for those fast rivers. 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:13.840 We've been raising our weighting technology, We've been raising our 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.960 way to US consumer names because we do think up 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.440 that we're not going to see a recession and these 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.720 names can continue to grow even with the uncertainty. What 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.320 do you hear from people. One of the great affinities 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.440 of US costUS your first rate academics, and you actually 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:30.639 go out and talk to a lot of people as well. 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:35.280 If we're very rangebone right now, what's the mood on 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.160 which way we range is, particularly in the equity markets. 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.840 Is it just an assumption that we're waiting for news 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:44.520 and then we break higher. I think most people probably, 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:46.760 you know, when you speak to individual investors, you speak 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.520 to advisors, they're nervous, and if anything, I think the 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.640 break higher would be the surprise. People were worried about trade, 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.840 they're worried about Briggs, that they're worried about US politics again, 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:59.119 all these things that are very hard to quantify, and 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:01.680 everyone still has a very fresh memory of not only 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.480 two thousand and eight, of last December. You know that 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:08.720 very sharp, abrupt, near near bear market in stocks has 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:12.920 left people nervous about these quick flash crashes that can 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.640 take stocks down and rust an economy that's at still 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.400 speed are caught up with pincome. In the last twenty 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:20.719 four hours, you just put out that cyclical outlook going 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.440 into they're looking for one percent GDP growth in the 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:28.280 United States. In are we prepared for one percent GDP 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.400 growth in America? I think we would be a bit 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:32.839 more constructive if you have one percent growth, and I 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.400 do think you're going to have some more volatility in 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:38.920 stocks because the earnings estimates for two thousand, twenty ten 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.800 percent growth are gonna be very hard to hit. Any 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:44.800 one percent real GDP environment, we'd be a bit more constructive. 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.600 I think you're decelerating towards trend, maybe a bit below, 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.599 but to my mind, that's still closer to two than 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:54.080 to one percent. Link your world with nominal GDP. If 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.719 we get a dampening or stability but sub pardominal GDP, 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.040 how does it fold into revenues then down the statement 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:04.680 to earnings. It means that your revenue growth the aggregate 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.000 is constrained. And this goes back to my point about 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.520 fast rivers a cash flow. I think it does mean 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:24.600 that investors like that just account who you know, this 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.680 is what the the the dynamic has been really for 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.760 the whole post crisis environment. You don't have that tailwind 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:35.039 a faster nominal GDP growth. So the question is which 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.880 companies are in segments of the market that can generate 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.640 top line growth in raise margins, and those are the 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:43.839 companies that can command that premium on their multiple Where 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.160 do you find them? What's sancta I'd say you find 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:49.040 them in technology. You find them in software, you find 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:52.360 them in segments of the consumer. You know, segment. We're 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:53.920 talking about a lot of gloom and doom. One thing 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.400 it's worth bringing up is that a household sector is 0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:00.000 in decent shape. You've got healthy growth and disposable income. 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.800 You've got healthy growth and disposable income among parts of 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.640 the household sector that have the greatest propensity to spend, 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:11.280 savings is up. Disposable income relative to dead is up. 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.679 You know, if you don't have something blow up on trade. 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.000 Our view as the household sector is in good shape 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.200 right now. Jonathan Golobert Credit Swaste has got a decent 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.520 take on this as well. The culprit at the moment 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.440 that everyone is blaming for decelerating GDP is quite clearly 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.640 the trade tension, and this is a quote that came 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:30.360 from the team at Credit Swiss yesterday. By contrast, the 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:34.400 data shows that eighteen stimulus driven above trend economy is 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:38.520 now mean reverting, weaken non recessionary economic should limit stock 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.560 returns until the data shows sign to bottoming. So I 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:43.839 guess that the one trillion dollar question is when do 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.800 we start to see signs of bottoming in this decellaring, 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.880 de sturating data worldwide. Rus So, I actually think there 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:51.600 is an answer to that, and my guess is that 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:54.040 you will start to see some stabilization in early two 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:56.920 thousand twenty. And the reason I say that is one 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.159 thing that has gone right and why stocks have had 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:01.760 you know, what has still a relatively good year is 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:05.080 that central banks pivoted early in the year. And when 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:08.080 you think about that lag between monetary accommodation of the 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:10.760 real economy, it's six to nine months. So that tells 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:12.160 me as we get to the end of the year, 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.200 we should start to see some signs of stabilization. Very 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:19.040 good Risk Coasters, Thank you so much. Thanks briefing as well. 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:37.200 Always interesting as we talked to Global Wall Street. When 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:40.360 a major bank makes major changes, it has been a 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.800 train wrecord well as far ago. There's no other way 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:46.280 to put it. And within all that is the history 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:50.080 of the bank John Farrell Crocker National, first Interstate Bank 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:54.800 of North America, first Security, meeting with Northwest, and finally 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.840 pulling in from the Deep South, the venerable Wacovia Bank. 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.080 And you distill it all into what John Stump rod. 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:04.920 I was on stage with Mr Stump days weeks before 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.600 he was shown the door, and it has been basically, 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.920 I'm going to say what four years of chaos? Three 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:15.120 years of chaos him slam was the follow up act 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.280 when you went over to Wells Fargo. Did you sit 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.360 in the stage coach over in third Avenue? I haven't 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.160 seen the stitch coach. Is that how you get to 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.000 work in the morning? That's how they used to get 0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:26.600 to work. It is a venerable name. Boy, is it troubled? 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:29.600 Glimpo finance reporter Shanali Bassett dropping by the studio to 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.080 catch out with us. Wells Farco does indeed have a 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:33.800 new CEO? Talked to me about the new man at 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:36.480 the top, Shinale. It's crazy. Charlie Sharp has only been 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.200 at the top of Bank of New York Melon for 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.000 about two years, and now he's making his next big 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:45.280 move to Wells Fargo. Much harder story to clean up. Uh, 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.800 you know a point that we had made earlier. Interestingly, 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.240 he's had a lot of experience with the regulators also, 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:51.800 I mean, he was one of the bank CEOs that 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:55.080 was down in Washington earlier this year. Um, and so 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:57.200 he's going to be a very interesting choice to see 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:58.800 how he how he deals with the rest of the 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.120 regulatory issues. To clean a pact, it's a long list. 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:05.040 What's it the top? Well, my goodness. Well, first of all, 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:09.480 maybe the Fed's asset cap Wells Fargo cannot grow because 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:12.400 the Feds said it cannot after so many issues that 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:16.040 it had in terms of the fake account scandal. So 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.360 told me about what he has to do that they 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.400 can get that lifted, to get that lifted, to make sure. 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:24.040 So remember Wells Fargo, this is an outsider for the 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.880 first time running the bank, John Stump, Tim Sloan. We 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.280 had people who and even Alan Parker, the General Council, 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.080 who was a lawyer by training, but still you know, 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:32.880 seen as part of the inside of the bank. To 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.840 clean up a culture is a difficult thing to prove 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:39.680 that you can do. And so Charles Sharf may bring 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.400 in more people, right, that's one big thing he might do. 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:44.840 And then he also has to show that he can 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.440 turn around how fundamentally the bank behaves and how it 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.199 treats customers. The legacy of this and this goes back 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.480 to Sandy Wells. Saw him on with Marie the other day. 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.080 Is good to see Mr wild out And about is 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.600 James Diamond was thrown out to bank one off of 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.320 commercial credit. He had a assistance and one of them 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:03.959 was the young young intern who is now going to 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.160 take over Wells Fargo. And along the way this guy 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.280 ran am I correct, he ran retail for James Diamond 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:13.400 a chase and I think they did pretty well. Is 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:17.720 he gonna JP morganize Wells Fargo? I mean that's certainly 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.280 a thing to think, right, Well, well, what's the board think? 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.360 What's the board think? Well? Remember Wells Fargo on like 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:27.360 JP Morgan, Wells Fargo is primarily a consumer bank. So 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:29.400 when you say JP Morgan, you also think about sales 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.719 and trading and invest in banking and all of these 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.120 other things. I think, and it's Wells Fargo does have 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.600 all of that, but primarily cleaning up the consumer businesses 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:41.360 is what he's going to have to do. So JP 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:45.400 morganized JP Morgan is the new financial supermarket, right, it's 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.760 the it's it's everything to everybody. So making it that 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:52.200 is not really the game here, it's cleaning it up psychologically. 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:55.320 Where is the center of wells Fargo? I mean we 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:57.680 you know, the heritage of this John is a pony 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.720 Express in the stage courch which they rand with going 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.960 from St. Louis West, you know, chased by Indians. I mean, 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:08.320 you know, it's part of the fabric of our history 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.680 as well as Fargo is a huge deal, the Pony Express. Yeah, 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:13.840 but you know, some of its mythology and some of 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:19.040 it's actually accurate. But but Shannale, we're psychologically I mean 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:23.719 JP Morgan New York Park Avenue, Yeah, you're asking. Well. 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.160 Well as Fargo is based in San Francisco, right, so 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.720 it's a San Francisco bank, remember after Wacovia. Also they 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:31.839 have deep roots in the South as well, and so 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.800 again not like JP Morgan, which has this huge global 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:38.760 expansion plan, this is America's bank, right, and what he 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.760 has to deal with is mortgages. To Americans across the country. Right, 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.000 that's a very different thing from where he was just 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:47.840 at Bank of New York, Melon, which is it's it's custody, 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.600 it's clearing services. It's really much more plumbing of the 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.599 financial system. Let's go bank to the beginning of this conversation, 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:56.680 the cap on their ability to grow, their ability to 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.920 remove that cap and then grow. Let's pretend the captadn't exists. 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.960 How easy would it be to get this company grunning again? Well, 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:10.320 I mean it's really it's not easy, right, not easy. 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.640 It's definitely a catch up game. Here. You have the 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:17.080 biggest growing faster, JP Morgan, Goldman Sacks, Goldman Sacks getting 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.800 into Wells Fargo's businesses with the consumer, and so how 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:21.240 do you catch up to that when you do have 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:24.240 all these regulatory problems? I'm not sure. Does he clean house? 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:29.600 You know, I know it's really possible twenty or thirty people? 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:31.960 Does he bring him from B and Y Melon? Or 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.400 does he what's he doing? Or can I tell you something? 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:37.680 Let alone by Melon? What about JP Morgan? Is he 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.880 going to go back to his old shop and say, hey, 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.360 I need you guys to help me here. Shelly bassk. 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:46.080 Thank you so much, correspondent John, that's a bit of 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.960 news doesn't shake. So she goes she's breaking and just 0:12:49.040 --> 0:13:04.680 scrunning around the news room. Yeah, all that. Lindsay Newman 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.640 is in London with Chatham House US and America's Program 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.440 Senior Research Fellow. When she was at Yale a few 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:15.720 years ago there was partisan divide of the nineteenth century. 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.440 Where were doing it right now? And she brilliantly captures 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.080 it this morning in a note on all we've observed 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.240 in Washington as well. I lead with that Lindsay an 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:26.960 hour and a half ago with our Kevin Siilli and 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:31.800 that I'm fascinated how the Senate Republicans, led by McConnell 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:38.199 of Kentucky, how they actually adapt to fact an opinion, 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:42.840 given this modern partisan did divide, What will you look 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.679 for from Senator McConnell. Well, first of all, thank you 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.000 for having me on. And it's very kind of you 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:49.280 to say it was just a few years ago I 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:52.320 was at Yale, But thank you, thank you very much. Um. So, 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:56.560 you know, right now we've seen the whist Whistleblow report 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:58.760 as well as the TRANSPAP. We're getting a more complete 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.960 picture of sort of the background of what will likely 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.840 form the basis of this formal impeachment inquiry that Pelosi 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:08.080 has authorized as of Tuesday. UM. Interesting the overnight a 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.360 lot of Senate Republicans were saying they hadn't had yet 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.640 had time to read the repair the whistleblower report. UM. 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.480 But what we're looking for is and you know, so 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.040 far they're all just saying at most that it's troubling. UM. 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.600 But as sort of we've seen pulling around public appetite 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.840 shifting perhaps up about to the highest levels UM during 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:34.360 the presidency towards impeachment. Will this prospect of an impeachment 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.280 inquiry going forward not just through the House but to 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.640 the Senate UM, and all the details that are propped 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:44.600 going to come out right before election? UM? In fact, 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.600 will that push them to have a more tempered view 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.680 and pull back some of that unmitigated support that they 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:55.240 continued to give trumpet this I was thunderstruck yesterday by 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.760 the difference between Lieutenant Mueller, who served heroically in the 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.520 his leadership was acclaimed as a frontline lieutenant in Vietnam, 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.760 and the way he was treated by Republicans versus the 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.960 Vice Admiral Yesterday you know, with his leadership across any 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:17.840 number of duties, with the Seals, where the Republicans are 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.080 almost at the point where they can't posture the postures 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.920 of the last three years. Have they run out of 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:27.360 gas with this impeachment process or do you look for 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:33.320 them to coalesce and defend their president. You know, it's 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:35.360 certainly going to be a bit of mix of both. Um, 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.000 there will certainly be those who continue to support President Trump. 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:42.080 But right now the information that's come out, between the 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:46.480 Whistleblow Report and the transcript there everybody is sort of 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:50.200 trying to digest this information. Um, what's what's what is 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.120 you know, troubling to take the Republican word here? Is 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.000 that the whistle Blow report, you know you're hearing, are 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:57.800 we going to find a smoking gun? And and this 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.520 is all just living linguistics and language. But what it 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:04.680 does provide, first and foremost is a roadmap. And in particular, 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.160 it's a roadmap that includes details that are already corroborated 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.640 by the transcript, not the least of which is information 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.680 around you know, encouraging further investigation into crowds, right, encouraging 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:19.160 this further investigation into Biden encouraging working with Giuliani and 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:22.320 and the Attorney General bar all of which we we 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:24.640 saw in in fact, in the transcript of the White 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.920 House ultimately released. Lindsay, are we dealing with any legal 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:33.200 issues here or purely political issues? Question? Really? Smart? Well, 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.520 that that is an excellent question. And when we when 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.080 we talk about impeachment, you know, we all have to 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:42.320 remember impeachable offenses are treason, bribery, and the high crimes 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.800 and misdemeanors. And President Gerald Ford so family famously said 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:47.960 high crimes and misdemeanors are just really whatever the House 0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:50.440 of Representatives of the day thinks that they are. But 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.480 what we we're talking about with high crimes and misdemeanors, 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:56.520 and I think that's where um, the Democrats House Democrats 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.520 are going to be focusing their attention as we're talking 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.960 about a abuse of trust, abuse of office, unbecoming conduct 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:08.280 um And there's that's quite a large bucket. The founding 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:10.560 fathers of the Constitution intended it to be quite a 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:15.200 large bucket that official presidential and particular behavior could could 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:18.120 be captured by Lindsay, these are actually reactions, of course, 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.960 that the Democrats have been throwing at the president since 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.760 really since day one, there is a concern among money 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.040 that they've spent so much political capital in doing so 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.159 that they're going to struggle to bring the public along 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:30.520 this time around. How do you think that's going to 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.000 play out? So they're two key stories. The first is 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:35.760 the public sentiment one, which is the one that you're 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.600 alluding to and I mentioned earlier, which we're starting to 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.360 see is very very prepliminary. But polling that's been done 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:44.679 since Pelose you meet her announcement has suggested that public 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:48.080 sentiment is inching towards impeachment. Now there does seem to 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:50.520 be the second part of the story still partisan divide. Right, 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.199 it's still very low amongst Republicans, something you know in 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.600 the just single high single digits into the low double 0:17:56.640 --> 0:18:00.000 digits um. But the partisan divide issue is key because 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.760 Democrats want to move quickly on this, because they don't 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:07.040 want this dragging through taking up all of the attention 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.760 um because ultimately, you know, some of the potential um 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.320 individuals who are gonna lose us from this, or anybody 0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:16.200 whose name is not Biden and Warren who are front 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.120 running the Democratic side right now, because the attention moves 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:22.600 away from healthcare, it moves away from uh, immigration and 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:24.760 gun control and all these issues that the you know, 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.159 the vibrant Democratic field is dealing is you know, is 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:31.160 raising and just get focused on impeachment. Obviously Biden um 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:33.960 is coming out very strongly to address these issues. And 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:36.159 then Warren, who's you know, who's surging in the polls. 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.600 Let me be republican for a moment. Is a constructive 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.760 plan here to just delay in a collegial way. I mean, 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:46.600 it takes a process and is the best not weapon, 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:52.080 but best strategy of the president's supporters to just stress 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.320 things out by a day here, a week here, a 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.640 weekend there. It's a good question, Tom, but I don't 0:18:57.680 --> 0:18:59.800 know how they do that. If Democrats seem to think 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:02.120 they already have a majority in the House and that's 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:03.960 what they need to pass this along to the Senate. 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.920 So they'll just need a majority um one day once 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.480 they dropped the article of impeachment, and so that will 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:14.720 so Republican delay tactics, Um, whatever it may be, it's 0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:19.560 still going to land in the Senate. Well, no, I'm sorry, 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:23.040 I mean Lindsey, Tom does this. He stamps all out 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:26.040 with the guests, and then they don't completely Thank you 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:27.879 so much. We look forward to seeing you in London 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:30.760 with shadow House. Uh this morning, I'm looking at the 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.680 it might have been a vital conclusion. It was. I'm sorry, 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.400 it's Friday, give me a break. I'm focused on arsenal 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:55.320 menu Monday. Why don't you bring in the woman who 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:59.240 writes beautifully terst notes for Rabbo Bank. She has fantastic 0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:01.560 to read. Name is Jane Foley, Rubber Bank ahead of 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:03.800 foreign exchange strategy. Do you wanting to us out of London? Jane, 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:05.320 great to have you with us. Let's just talk about 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:07.600 Michael Saunders, shall we the hawk at the Bank of 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:12.200 England turning very dovish your thoughts well, indeed he used 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.359 to be a hawk and this is why perhaps his 0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:18.159 case comments are really even more devish tone than if 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:19.960 any any of the other members of the Bank of 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:22.240 England were to say this now of course what he 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:25.960 is or what the Bank of England official guidance have said. 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.520 And and this has printed even just a few weeks ago. 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:32.479 In the last policy meeting, was even on a on 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.920 a on a smooth brexit, even if a deal was done, well, 0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:38.320 we could see an interest rate hike, and that would 0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:41.479 be because there would be an unleashing of demand. And 0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:45.760 what Saunders this saying is that global growth or softwa 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:49.080 global growth is actually opening up, but he says a 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:52.480 modest amount of spare capacity, So he is basically saying 0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:56.159 that the headwinds to growth probably mean that even on 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.119 a smooth and Brexit now we would probably see an 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:01.200 interest rate cut. Another money market, of course, had already 0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:05.080 been pricing that in, but his comments did reinforce that move, 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:07.439 so the market began to think, well, perhaps we will 0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:10.000 see the interest rate cut by maybe the middle of 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:12.600 next year. Jane, what are your thoughts on that economic 0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:14.919 argument that we had a supply side problem for the 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:17.679 last three years. That was the basic argument of the 0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:20.800 Bank of England that the rate of acceleration, the rate 0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:23.280 of where we limit out in the United Kingdom, has 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:25.560 come lower, and therefore you don't need much demand to 0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:28.919 bump up against supply constraints. Therefore rates need to go 0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:30.880 up a little bit. That used to be the argument, Jane, 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:35.119 what's changed. What's changed is of course really Germany and 0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:37.439