WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: December 12, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:06.320 Live from the Bloomberg Interacted Brooker Studios. Is his Bloomberg 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:10.000 Daybreak for a Monday, December twelve coming up this hour. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.400 A huge week for central banks, with the Fed, ECB 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.360 and Bank of England all making policy decisions. Treasury Secretary 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:20.200 Janet Yellen says inflation will be much lower by the 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:24.160 end of next year. Am JEN makes its biggest acquisition ever, 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.200 and the January six Committee gets a step closer to 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.560 its final report. I'm Amy Morris. New York subway officials 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:33.239 are looking at hiking fairs, and the area is bracing 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:36.279 for its first major snow event this season. I'm John 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.200 Stash Howard Sports. The Giants got blown out by Philadelphia, 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:44.760 the Jets lost in Buffalo, the Nicks beat Sacramento. That's 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:48.760 all s traded ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three, 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:53.199 on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:57.720 oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, and Francisco Sirius 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.240 x M one nine team and around the world Old 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:03.720 on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.480 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar, and I'm Karen, Moscow and 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.360 US do index futures around the rise this morning six 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.040 on one on Wall Street, and we check the markets 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.880 all day long here at Bloomberg, with SMP futures up 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.279 nine points or a quarter percent, AL futures up sixty 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:24.160 two points or two tents of uppercent, and nasday futures 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.720 are up three tents of uppercent or thirty six points. 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:30.200 The decks in Germany is down about two tents of uppercent. Ten. 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.839 Your treasury of fourteen thirty seconds, you know, three point 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.280 five two percent, and the yield on the two year 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.520 four point three each two percent. Nathan Karen, we begin 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:41.160 with a big week for central bank decisions, both here 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.760 and abroad. We get the preview this morning from Bloomberg 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.600 Smichael McKee. Are you ready for risk? We have a 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:50.240 host of major market moving events this week. Tuesday, usc 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.600 P I will weigh on investors views of what the 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.960 Fed will and has to do. Wednesday, the Fed will 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.560 tell us not just a rate move, but new economic 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.480 forecasts and a new dot plot. How high do they 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.280 think US interest rates have to go? How high will 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.680 they have to go in Europe? Well, Thursday, all eyes 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.720 turned to the ECB which will also be moving rates 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.600 up and offering new forecasts. What kind of recession will 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:17.240 they see? The Bank of England has already forecast contraction, 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.119 but with inflation high, they are expected to raise rates 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:23.440 again on Thursday. The question on thread Needle Street, when 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:27.919 do they stop? Michael McKie, Bluemberg daybreak Right, Mike, thanks well. 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:30.799 So far the juries out on whether central banks are 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:34.200 winning the war on inflation, but Treasury Secretary Jennet Yellen 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.560 is optimistic. She says prices should be much lower by 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:39.560 the end of next year. As long as there aren't 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:43.280 any unexpected shocks to the economy, I believe inflation will 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:47.959 be lower. Um. I am very hopeful that the labor 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:53.800 market will remain quite healthy so that people who feel 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:58.120 good about their finances. In an interview as CBS is 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.800 sixty minutes, Secretary Yellen said ending Russia's war in Ukraine 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.320 would be the single best thing for the global economy. 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:07.959 She says US support for Ukraine will continue, quote as 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:11.280 long as it takes. We're doing everything we can to 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:15.720 bring this war to a conclusion. Of course, we're providing 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:22.400 considerable help um to Ukraine, both military and economic, and 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:25.800 listeners in Washington get here sixty minutes from CBS Sunday 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.919 nights at ten on Bloomberg. Support for Ukraine will be 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.400 high on the agenda, Karin, when Group of seven leaders 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:35.680 meet virtually today. The White House says President Biden spoke 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:39.480 with Ukrainian President vladimir's Lensky last night to underscore his support. 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.440 The US has promised thirty eight billion dollars in military 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.400 aid and delivered thirteen billion in direct aid to Ukraine 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.640 so far. Meantime, Nathan, the US will send a delegation 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.080 at China on the coming days. The move follows up 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.320 on President Biden's meeting with Shandy's President she Jan Paying 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.280 last month to g Tway. The two countries have plenty 0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:00.480 of disagreements, including over Taiwan and US move to limit 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:04.120 China's economic and technological influence. Oh Yeah, moves on Capitol 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:07.080 Hills response to last year's insurrection, Karen. The January six 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.240 Committee has taken another step on its way to producing 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.600 its final report with a new subcommittee meeting, Bloomberg said. 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.760 Baxter reports. The stated purpose of the meeting possible prosecution 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.240 on criminal charges coming out of the insurrection. Congressman Adam 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.520 Schiff on CBS has heard here on Bloomberg. I think 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:24.960 we're all certainly an agreement that there is evidence of 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.960 criminality here shifts as a committee has been able to 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.560 provide very important information to the d o J. But 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:33.640 just as important, I think it makes an important statement, 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.560 not a political one, but a statement about the evidence 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:41.120 of an attack on the institutions for a democracy and 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.960 the peaceful transfer of power. Less than two weeks until 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.159 the curtain comes down in San Francisco, I'm at Baxter 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:50.440 Bloomberg day Break, Thanks and turning to the markets. Now, 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.360 we have a couple of deals to kick off the week, 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.320 including breaking news in the biotech industry. We get the 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.400 latest live with Bloomberg. Steve A. Rappaport. Good morning, Steve, 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.600 Good morning Karen and Nathan. What a difference in our makes. 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.840 It is now a deal. Mgen will buy Horizon Therapeutics 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:07.920 at a hundred sixteen dollars and fifty cents per share cash. 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.040 That is the largest acquisition for the company to date, 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:14.680 and it is almost twenty dollars higher per share than 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:18.599 Horizon Therapeutics closing price on Friday. Once again, it is 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:22.000 now official and Jen will buy Horizon Therapeutics in what 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.800 will be the company's largest acquisition to date. Live in 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.920 New York. I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Steve, 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:31.760 thank you. We also have an acquisition involving Microsoft. That 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:33.599 company has agreed to buy a stake in the London 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:37.080 Stock Exchange Group. The deal gives Microsoft a four equity 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.799 holding as part of a new long term strategic partnership, 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.039 part of a broader ten year agreement to help the 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:45.960 London Stock Exchange owner developed data, analytics and cloud infrastructure 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:49.280 using Microsoft products. Well staying in London, now, Nathan, we 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.640 have a couple of major stories this morning centered on 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.440 the UK economy. There's fresh growth data from the UK 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.640 as the country rapples with widespread strikes, and we go 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:59.800 to London and get the latest live at the Bloomberg's 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:02.600 James to Wilcock, Good Mornings, James, Good morning from a 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.680 frosty UK. Karen. The economy here expanded nor point five 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:08.320 percent in October as business would covered output loft in 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:10.800 public holidays after the death of the Queen, but with 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.479 strikes across the country affecting health, transport and education, the 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.560 outlook is much grimmer. You can already see that in hospitality, 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.240 with pubs and restaurants saying Christmas party bookings are as 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:23.200 bad as they were during COVID as people cancel due 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.719 to rail strikes. The UK government is meeting this morning 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:27.839 to discuss sending in the army to fill in for 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.320 workers walking out in London. James Wilcock bloom Bag daybreak, 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:34.119 All right, James, thank you. And in banking news this morning, 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.520 Reuter's is reporting Morgan Stanley plans to cut investment bankers 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.680 annual bonuses in Asia by as much as fifty percent 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.120 this year. According to the report, the scale of those 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:46.440 cuts in the Asia business could possibly be replicated in 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:50.360 the US and Europe. Sub futures of eight points, Stafle 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.960 futures of fifty two, Nastack futures higher by thirty two points. 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:57.320 Straight ahead, your latest local headlines and a check of sports. 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:04.919 This is Bloomberg Sounds six oh seven on Wall Street. 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.599 One degrees in Central Park, sunny but chilly today. High 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.480 is only near forty degrees getting down to the upper 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:14.640 twenties tonight. And Amy Morris is here now with more 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:16.640 on what's going on in New York and around the 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:20.560 world on this chilly morning, Thank you Nathan. More than 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:23.400 thirty years after the bombing of pan amp Like one 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:27.200 oh three over Lockerbee, Scotland that killed two hundred seventy people, 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:31.120 including thirty eight New Jersey residents, suspect is now in 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:35.360 US custody. Bert Ammerman's brother Tom from New Jersey, says 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:38.480 there is no closure. Two daughters at the time, six 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:42.360 and four, a wife. He was thirty six young. He 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:44.920 didn't get to live his life. The suspect is expected 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.040 to make a court appearance in Washington, d c. On 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:51.160 criminal federal charges. New York subway officials are looking to 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:55.160 avoid a budget disaster. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority says it 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:58.080 could face a budget gap of nearly three billion dollars 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:01.840 by The New York Times reports they are considering raising 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.360 the transit system's base fair a couple of times by 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.920 to just over three dollars. It would be the first 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.680 time they've talked about raising fair since the pandemic begin. 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:15.160 Safety upgrades are coming to railroad crossings in the Hudson Valley. 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:18.520 Senator Chuck Schumer has unveiled new plans to spend more 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.800 than one hundred million dollars on those improvements. Schumer also 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.440 wants to invest money in Newcastle to build a bridge. 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.680 It is the largest oil spill in Keystone pipeline history, 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:32.400 more than five eight thousand gallons of crude. Officials say 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.559 they've got to contain for now. Warren Martin is executive 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.800 director of Kansas Strong, a nonprofit organization that educates people 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:42.559 about the oil and gas industry. This oil spill is 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.640 a little bit different than some of the past pipeline 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:48.080 spills because it involves a body of water, and so 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.520 it's not real certain how the e p A Is 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:53.679 going to respond to that. They have to approve starting 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:57.000 back up the pipeline, and so there's a remediation process 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.000 that takes place to clean up all the oil to 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.720 analyze a pipeline. Industry insiders believe the pipeline will be 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:06.880 up and running again around December twenty NASA's Oriyan spacecraft 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.000 splashed down on the Pacific off the coast of Mexico yesterday, 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.880 bringing a successful end to a twenty five day test 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.800 flight that sent an unscrewed vehicle around the Moon and 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.400 back to Earth. Artemis one helps paved the way for 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.720 NASA's program to return humans to the surface of the Moon. 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:24.599 Global News twenty four hours a day on air, and 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:28.400 Don Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than twenty journalists 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:32.319 and analysts in more than one twenty countries. I'm Amy Morris. 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:40.199 This is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you, Amy. Six o nine 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.480 on Wall Street. Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:44.880 to you by Trice stayed out he Here's John stash Our. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.319 Thanks DAF and everyone knows. Gonna be a tough Sunday 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:49.600 for the Jets and Giants. Showing enough, both teams lost. 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.400 Jets were in it in Buffalo. Their defense again played well, 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.280 but for the second straight week, the offense produced only 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:59.080 one touchdown the Bills on twelve Mike White in defeat 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:02.440 twenty seven of forty four. He took a beating sat 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.120 four times twice he had to leave the game, and 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:08.280 after the game, White went to the hospital with injured ribs, 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.000 a precautionary measure. A Jet bright spot was rookie running 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:13.920 back Zonovan Whitey games seventy one yards scored the Jets 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.480 and only touchdown. As for the Giants, never in it 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.760 at met Live Philadelphia score touchdowns on the first three 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:23.680 possessions of Giants illegal punt didn't help matters. The final 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.400 is forty eight to twenty two, most points. The Eagles 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.920 have scored in a road game with the Giants since 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:31.960 nineteen seventy one, and Philly's already in the playoffs in 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.840 NFL Best twelve and won six and oh on the road. 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.120 Bryan day Boles Giants winless in the last four games 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.880 winning it's when you're losing this humbling. Um Love was 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.920 like this, you own it. It'll make any excuses. They 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:47.240 played well. Um, when we get to you know, have 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.679 an opportunity to get ready and and play a big 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.080 game on on Sunday night. Yeah, that's the game in Washington, 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.760 moved to prime time. The two teams had the same record. 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:57.679 The winner will own the tiebreaker. They're in a battle 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:01.120 with Seattle, three teams buying for two playoff spots. Giants 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.480 got some help yesterday when the Seahawks lost at home 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.360 to Carolina. Next day hot their fourth trade win. They 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:09.920 played great defense in all four at the Garden beat Sacramento. 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:12.480 Who's a good team this year? One twelve ninety nine. 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:14.959 R J Barrett, Julius Randall both with twenty seven points 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.560 all twenty seven for randall come in the first half. 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.679 Third quarter we got ejected, picking up two technicals. Low 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.840 scoring Battle of New Jersey Seaton Hall forty five Rutgers 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.960 forty three. No one scored more than ten points. Both 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.640 teams were six and four. Paul Silas has passed away 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:33.160 at seventy nine, played sixteen seasons for five NBA team. 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:37.319 John Stash Bloomberg Sports. Thanks John, Bloomberg Sports has brought 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:39.400 to you by Audie. Don't let someone else drive off 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:41.640 in the Audi model. You've always wanted to visit your 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.520 local Tri state Audie dealer to get behind the wheel 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.160 of yours today, or visit Outie Offers dot com for 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.760 more information. SMP futures now up ten points, staff futures 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.920 up sixty eight. NAS deck futures are higher by thirty 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.920 eight points ten. Your treasury is up fifteen thirty seconds. 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.640 The yield on the benchmark three point five two percent 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.680 six twelve on Wall Street. This is Bloomberg Daybreak on 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.720 a week that is going to be focused on central 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:12.040 banks here and around the world. It's bringing David Rosenberg 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.880 ahead of all these decisions. The founder in chief economist 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:19.400 and strategists at Rosenberg Research. David, it's good as always 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.839 to speak with you. Give us your expectations on what 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:28.280 we could see first off from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Well, 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:30.920 I think that the Fed is a pretty easy call 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.240 in terms of what they're gonna do on rates. Fifty 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.079 basis points is baked in the cake. I think the 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.560 only issue is going to be the tone of the 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:45.240 press statement, the cadence at the post meeting press conference 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:49.199 by Powell, and of course the markets will be fixated 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.640 on the dot plots. But I'd say that now that 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.400 the futures markets already priced for the terminal rate at 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.560 five percent, which is what the Fed's are already signaled. Uh. 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:00.719 I don't really know what the potential is going to 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:05.280 be for any big surprise. We have heard a pretty 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:10.040 strong drumbeat, particularly from FED Chairman Powell, the latest from 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:13.240 the Brookings Institution speech about the need to keep rates 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.920 higher for longer. Do you think the market has gotten 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:20.199 that message? Well, I guess it's like the debate about 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.760 transitory What does for longer really mean? I think people 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:29.080 tend to think that once the Fed pauses, uh, the 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:32.520 the pivot or the rate cut happens like the next month. 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:37.280 It rarely, if ever, happens that smoothly. Usually the lag 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.840 is about six months, And interestingly enough, the markets are 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.200 priced for the fit to be done at five by May, 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:49.160 and the futures markets pricing in two rate cuts by 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.440 the end of the year, which by and large would 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:55.440 follow the historical script. So I don't think that longer 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:57.160 necessarily has to mean the Fed is going to be 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.800 keeping rates of five percent for twelve or twenty four months. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.920 To be hired for longer will mean getting the five 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.600 percent if they get there, and in keeping it there 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:08.479 for a couple of quarters as they assess how the 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:12.840 economy and the inflation backdrop is performing. Let's just say 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:14.960 one thing, Okay, we heard from Janna Yellen in the 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.280 past few days, not just once, but twice in the 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:19.960 course in sixty minutes, where she's coming out and saying 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.960 that she doesn't expect inflation just be lower. She's saying 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.520 it's going to be much lower. And I don't think that, 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:30.400 you know, she meets with Powell frequently. I don't think 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.520 she'd be going out with comments like this without his 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:36.560 not of approval. So I think that really points towards 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:40.040 a less hawkish bias out of the FED online day 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.440 in my opinion, interesting, do you think the FED has 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.640 gone far enough with the fight against inflation? Do you 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.680 think it's gone too far? Well? I think that the 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.720 truth is always in the yield curve, always the much 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.120 maligned yield curve. You know, it's interesting that all the 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.320 economists of the analysts and strategists never have a problem 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.000 with the yield curve. When the FET is easing into 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.160 a steep yeel curve, of course, that just paves the 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:08.920 way for unrelenting positive economic growth and reflation. But all 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:10.600 of a sudden, you know, when the FETE starts to 0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:12.600 tighten in versus the yel curve, we have this big 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.920 debate about the veracity of the yeld curve. It's used 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:18.080 to only work for most ball Street strategists in one direction. 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.040 But the fat is tightening, has been tightening into an 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.240 inverted yeel curve at the extent that we hadn't seen 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:27.520 since Paul Bulker uh in, and we already know what 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:31.200 happened in two Okay, we had a steep recession, uh 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.920 and we had inflation melt. So I think that's going 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:35.680 to be the prognosis. So you're gonna ask me to 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.800 the FED overdo it. Well, Look, if their goal along 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:43.840 was to cause the conditions for a contraction and aggurate 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.600 demand to cure the inflation battle, well this is exactly 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:49.400 we're going to be getting. So I'm not going to 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:51.440 say that the FETE has overdone it. This is probably 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:55.000 what their goal was, tightened aggressively into an inverted yel curve. 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.840 The ball market hasn't screaming uncle for months now, and 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:02.200 we're going to get the recess and inflation in every recession, 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.640 even in those god awful staturation periods of the nine seventies. 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:10.400 In recessions, demand destruction overtakes. Whatever an elastic supply we 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.880 have an inflation melts. And that's the story for now. 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.440 The other story that we heard from Treasury Secretary Yelling 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.080 in that interview last night was that she doesn't think 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.960 necessarily that there has to be a recession for the 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.320 FED to get the fight done against inflation. Of course, 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.520 the yield curve is as adverted as it's been since 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:35.840 the early eighties. So who's getting it wrong, David, Well, 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:39.240 she didn't say, Well, she actually said that inflace that 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.680 recession is still a risk. But I mean, what do 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.720 you want, really, she's a politician, Uh, she works for 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:48.080 the administration. You really expect her to come out and say, oh, 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.800 we're going to have recession for sure in the coming year. 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.520 To me, actually, the fact that she even said that 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.720 there is a risk that we have recession, that was 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:00.920 what was important. But you can't expect a cabinet remember 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:02.840 to come up and say we're going to have recession 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.720 for sure next year. Who does that? Um? But the 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:10.040 reality is that if we emerge without a recession, given 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:12.879 the message from the bond market, the extent of the 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:15.879 inversion of the bond market, whatever part of the curve 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.240 you want to look at, if we escape lit to recession, 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:20.840 it will be the first time that's ever happened. And 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:24.480 tell me how well the refrain of it will be 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.560 different this time? How well has that worked more investors 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.480 in the past. All right, we're gonna go too. Well, right, Well, 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:32.680 we're going to continue this conversation in the next few 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.560 minutes here with David Rosenberg, founder and chief economist at 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:39.240 Rosenberg Research. Want to get your thoughts, David as well 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.960 on what we could get from the final inflation print 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.760 before that FED decision on Wednesday, and as well as 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.399 the other central banks coming out with policy decisions of 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.479 their own. So stay with us here on Bloomberg day 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.200 Break because we keep the conversation going here with David Rosenberg, 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.199 the founder in chief economist at Rosenberg Research. This is 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:05.119 Bloomberg Markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.520 day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business Outland at 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:17.720 Bloomberg Quick Take. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash, and 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.080 I'm Karen Moscow. This updates brought to you by the 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.840 Jewish Communal Fund. For fifty years, philanthropists at all levels 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:27.160 have turned to JCFS donor advice funds to streamline their 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.840 charitable giving. Visit j c f n Y dot org. 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:33.840 U stock index futures on the rise this morning, and 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.040 we check the markets all day long here at Bloomberg 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:38.360 with SNP Future is up about twelve points or three 0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:40.960 tens of a percent down. Future is up sixty six 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.280 or two tents of up percent, and NASTAG futures up 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.280 thirty nine or a third of uppercent. The tenure Treasury 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.240 up sixteen thirty seconds L three point five one percent 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.120 at a yield on the two year four point three 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:54.119 one percent. Nimex screwed oil is down seven tenths per 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.600 cent or forty seven cents at seventy dollars fifty six 0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:59.160 cents of barrel Comex golled down three tenths per cent 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.639 or found dollars twenty cents at eighteen oh five fifty 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:05.120 announced for watching shares of Horizon Therapeutics this this morning 0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:08.240 at more than fourteen percent in early training. As we've 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:10.520 been reporting, it's being purchased by am Gen and a 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:13.320 cash deal worth almost twenty eight billion dollars. That's a 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.280 Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Amy Morrish with more on 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.879 what's going on around the world. Amy Karen Olivian. Man 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:22.800 suspected in the night eight bombing of pan amp Like 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.280 one oh three over Scotland is in US cost to 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:29.320 the Department of Justice. Spokesman says the alleged operative expected 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.639 to make an initial appearance in the U S. District 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:35.639 Courts Court for the District of Columbia. A US helicopter 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:39.119 rate has killed two Islamic state officials in Syria. U 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:41.399 S Central Command says one of the people killed in 0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:45.040 yesterday's raid was a provincial official in Eastern Syria who 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:48.840 was involved in plotting and carrying out the terrorist groups operations. 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.879 In sports, in the NFL, the Bills beat the Jets, 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:55.280 the Giants lost to the Eagles, Ravens and forty Niners win. 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.520 In hockey, the Caps and Bruins win, And in the NBA, 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.760 the Nicks beat The King's Global News twenty four hours 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:04.080 a day on aeron on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:08.280 more than journalists and analysts in more than one twenty countries. 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:11.640 I'm anymore as and this is Bloomberg. Nathan all right, Amy, 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.399 thank you to six three on Wall Street. I'm Nathan Hagar. 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:16.760 This is Bloomberg day Break, brought to you by ancient 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:19.480 accountants and advisors, the right fit tax and accounting firm 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:21.880 that you need to succeed. Visit the man ancient dot 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:24.520 com slash v i P to learn more. That's ancient 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.879 dot com slash v i P. And we're back with 0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:31.360 David Rosenberg, now founder, chief economist and strategists at Rosenberg Research, 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:33.520 as we look ahead to the FED decision and all 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.359 the other central banks later on this week. Ahead of that, 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:39.520 David of course, we get one last read on inflation 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:43.639 in tomorrow's Consumer Price Index. We had producer prices come 0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:45.920 in a little bit hotter than expected last week, though 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:48.520 still trending lower. Does that inform what we could see 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:53.240 from the consumer data tomorrow, Well, I don't think so. 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:57.200 I know that a lot of shall we say, pundits 0:20:57.240 --> 0:21:02.120 we're pointing to the outsized pp I number on Friday, 0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:07.200 but the entire delta between the actual and the expected 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.560 on the p p I and the core came from 0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:16.000 this bizarre four seasonally adjusted surge in financial sector fees. 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.280 Outside of that, the headline and core pp I word 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:23.680 inline with consensus estimates, the consensus for this week headline 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:28.800 and core plus point three seems uh. Seems right for me. 0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:31.399 But I would say that what's more important is the 0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:35.040 outlook for inflation and the big break we've been seeing 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:39.240 in the past several months. Finally, is the deflation we're 0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:43.199 now seeing in rental rates in real time uh, and 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:47.520 that will morph into a real significant slowing in. It 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:50.760