1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorite, the podcast part of the Action Network, 2 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: proudly presented by Bett three six five. I am Chad Milman, 3 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined 4 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my BFF, my companion, 5 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon hunter HEADO. 6 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 2: Soymon, Hello, lot Shot. How are you doing? Brother? 7 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: Dude? Look at us, Look at us. We are live 8 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: on AMP right now. We are live on YouTube right now. 9 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: We will be live on both of those channels for 10 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: every single show from now until the end of time. 11 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 1: You and I together in our white Favorites hoodies, which 12 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: I know Matt Mitchell is wearing as well. I think 13 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: it's cute that we decided to all wear our hoodies 14 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: today for our first live show on the YouTube. We 15 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: don't mean planning. 16 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're slowly making a cult jet, slowly making a cold. 17 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: It just takes three and right now. Yeah, that's what 18 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: we have. Listen, We're going to get deep, deep, eat deep, 19 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: deep into the draft. There is some serious betting chaos 20 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: going on. Aaron Rodgers to the Jets happened yesterday? How 21 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: was that impacting the draft? How is it impacting futures? 22 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: I want to talk about that the draft is proving 23 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: to be through Will Levice, the greatest epitome of the 24 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: chaos that is betting the draft, the rumor mill that 25 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: is the draft, how technology and communications and social media 26 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: influence the Draft. We're going to get to all of it. 27 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by 28 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign 29 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 1: up with promo code action to get BET three six 30 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: y five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on 31 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus. Bets 32 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older. Offer is available in Colorado, 33 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Gambling problem call or text 34 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler. Also, before we get to the convo, 35 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: you guys have heard us talk about game Time so 36 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: much on this podcast. They're the fastest growing ticketing app 37 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: in the US. I love game Time, honestly, I use 38 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 1: it all the time. And if you're looking to get 39 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: out to a pro or college game this week, even 40 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: a concert, game Time has a main last minute deals 41 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 1: on tickets to all of these. I'm actually going to 42 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: open game Time right now from my house here in Connecticut. 43 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: What am I going to find? Let's see Teta. Oh 44 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: look at this tonight, I can go see the New 45 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: York Mets. Get in price Simon, Simon, what do you 46 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: think they get in prices for the New York Mets tonight? 47 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: Very good baseball team depends how's pitching, Simon, Just give 48 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: me an answer. 49 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: I'd say thirty dollars seven dollars. 50 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: I can get in to see the New York Mets. 51 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: Great baseball going fast because of the pitching clock for 52 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: seven dollars. No matter where you live, download the game 53 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: Time app, get out and have some fun this week. 54 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: You deserve it, and you can redeem code favorites for 55 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just 56 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: download the app and undercode favorites for twenty dollars off. 57 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: So download Game Time today. Last minute tickets lows price guaranteed. 58 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 2: Dude. 59 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: Let's start with Aaron Rodger. Okay, trade finally goes through yesterday. 60 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: Nominal impact on everything you know, it's been expected. So 61 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: whatever Aaron Rodgers' value to the Jets was gonna be 62 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: is built into whatever price that's been going around already. 63 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: What are your initial thoughts on Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. 64 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: Now that it's officially happened, I. 65 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 2: Guess from the fans that I'm really happy for Jets fans. 66 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 2: I don't mean this is probably the best quarterback they've 67 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 2: ever had. I mean this is exciting for Jets fans. 68 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 2: This is their super Bowl, right, they finally got the guy. 69 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: It's gonna take them over the hump. But from the 70 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: betting perspective, it's nothing. It's a shit number, the team 71 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: that's overrated. Maybe next year I'll get some down on 72 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 2: the Jets, or you know, if they start one to three, 73 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: I'll take a position on the Jets. But they feel 74 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,840 Speaker 2: like Denver last year. It's just it's gonna be all 75 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 2: hype and no subsistence. I feel like Miami's the bet. 76 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 2: I mean you talked about that earlier. Yeah, that's gonna 77 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 2: be the play. You know, the Bills expecting me better 78 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 2: than they were last year, just because I think Josh 79 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 2: Allen will be healthy, you won't to have that arm issue, 80 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 2: and you know he's got a fire under his ass. 81 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 2: That's a motivated man right now. So in that division, 82 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 2: I love it for Jets fans and it's exciting because 83 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 2: you actually have a chance now, where before you really 84 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 2: did it with Zach Wilson or Joe flaccol Right, that 85 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 2: was just yeah, that was fun. They're winning some games 86 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 2: around the year, but me and you never really took 87 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 2: them serious as an actual contender for Super Bowl. Now. Shit, 88 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: if they start three to one, shed the rodds will 89 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 2: probably go down to ten to one, nine to one, 90 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 2: I mean, they'll be an all hype teams. 91 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 1: So they're about twelve to one right now at bet 92 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 1: three sixty five. 93 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, So to me, Jets fans is exciting because usually 94 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 2: you guys just have nothing to look forward to. It's 95 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 2: all hope and gluster and that's over by week two. 96 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: This year, it's gonna be a little different. So exciting 97 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 2: for them, but as a better nothing to do here, 98 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: no bets to make on this team. 99 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: So the other thing I'll note is bet three sixty 100 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: five has a boost for Aaron Rodgers to win MVP 101 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: from plus sixteen hundred to plus eighteen hundred. I was 102 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: reading Bill Barnwell this morning on ESPN dot com. I 103 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 1: love Barnwell, He's super smart, and he had an interesting 104 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: take on the Jets because look, The reason why everyone 105 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: is so excited about them for next year is because 106 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: their defense was so dominant. Right, they got Garrett Wilson, 107 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 1: that's great. They'll get the running back from Tennessee or 108 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: from Iowa State who injured his knee, and was Bryce 109 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: Hall who was on the path to sort of have 110 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: a Rookie of the Year kind of year. So he 111 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: does have pieces around him on offense, but it's really 112 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: about the defense. And I feel like the market is 113 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: so exuberant about the Jets because it's the Jets, because 114 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: it's Aaron Rodgers, that it's kind of not taking into 115 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: account the fact that there's always regression in these situations. 116 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: So let me give you a little stat that I 117 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 1: stole from Barnwell. Last year, the Jets jumped from thirty 118 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: second to fifth in defensive DVOA. Teams that make those 119 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: kinds of leaps typically drop back the following season. This 120 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: is from Barnwell again. Recent example is the Commanders, who 121 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: jumped from twenty seventh to third in DVA in twenty twenty, 122 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: falling back to twenty seventh the following season. One other 123 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: thing to consider, the Jets benefited from playing second and 124 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: third Street quarterbacks, And we talk about that all the 125 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: time when we're betting on teams during the season. During 126 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: their seven and four start, they played five games against 127 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: quarterbacks who weren't the team's preferred starter if everybody was 128 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: healthy and available. So we're talking about Brett Rippon, Trevor Simeon, 129 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky, Jacobe Brissett, Skyler Thompson. So I don't know, man, 130 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: can I interest you in a Jets under nine and 131 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 1: a half wins at plus one hundred. 132 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep waiting because I'm just gonna hope Jet 133 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 2: fans beted up like they did last year. Like last 134 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 2: year they got really lucky, like those couple of coin 135 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: flip games. I mean that Browns game really sticks out right. 136 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: That game they're down thirteen points with a minute to go, 137 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 2: Joe Flack will pulled out a win. Those are kind 138 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: of things that they totally flip over under. So to me, 139 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 2: I don't hate it, chat if you grab it now 140 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 2: nine and a half, I'll just keep waiting hopefully get 141 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 2: a ten. I can't see it dropping below nine and 142 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: tell you that much. 143 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: So I kind of feel like they've sussed out a 144 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: little bit of an opportunity here. Oh so, because everyone 145 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: is going to be thinking about the Jets are set. 146 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: The Jets last year fourth one of the league's healthiest defenses, 147 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: one year after being the fourth most injured defense. Again, like, 148 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: there's going to be some regression on the Jets defense. 149 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: And also when you go after you've given up the 150 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: draft picks that you've given up, there's going to be 151 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: some sort of residual impact on the roster and how 152 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: you can build depth on defense. So last year we 153 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: were anti Jets and we bet the under and it 154 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: bit us. I think we're gonna do it again. 155 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: I know it's gonna be tough though, where even if 156 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 2: Rogers isn't what he used to be, isn't the MVP level, 157 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 2: he is going to be so much better than anything 158 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: they've had in the last ten, ten, twelve years, I 159 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 2: mean not since Sanchez that they had a guy that 160 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 2: you actually can think, Okay, this guy can actually win 161 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 2: a game. So you know, I still think a lot 162 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: of last year was Rodgers being hurt and having no weapons. 163 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 2: This team has tons of weapons Jets. So that's my 164 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: only hesitation here is just like this guy is stepping 165 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,079 Speaker 2: into the same situation Brady stepped into which is a 166 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 2: really really good offensive weapons with a pretty good defense. 167 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 2: Like you know, as much I want to shoot on 168 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 2: the Jets, Sauce is probably on the best winners I've 169 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 2: seen since Revis. I mean, he really is that next level. 170 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: You almost not that he almost got it, but he 171 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: was at the point where people are talking to him 172 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 2: for Defensive Player of the Year. So pretty special team. 173 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 2: But you're right, Chad, if it gets to ten, how 174 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 2: do I not take that under in that division? It's 175 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 2: just that's too high a number for them. 176 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: Listen, if you're listening live on AMP, if you're watching 177 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: live on YouTube, do not forget. You can send us 178 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: questions in the chat for either either one of those things. 179 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, who's also wearing his favorite hootie, paying attention 180 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: to all of it. He's a man on a keyboard 181 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: sending us notes and slack. He's producing. He's producing as 182 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: much as he possibly can right now. So we've been 183 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 1: talking a lot about the draft. Where is your head 184 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: right now? How are you feeling? You've been a roller 185 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: coaster of emotions the past couple of weeks. As the 186 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: Bryce Young chatter has gotten louder, and that's that's against 187 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: what you need to happen to a significant degree. 188 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all no sleep, Like I just have not 189 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: slept at all. It's one of those where, I mean, 190 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 2: you've had kids, so when your wife's pregnant, the baby's 191 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 2: doing any minute. I think most men wake up every 192 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 2: hour or two and just either check on their wife, 193 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 2: get up and pace for a little bit, then laid 194 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 2: back down. It's like that never ending feeling of just anxiety, 195 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 2: like you know what's coming and you got you just 196 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 2: know you like you can't really help what's coming. That's 197 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,719 Speaker 2: how I feel with the diraft, where it's like I 198 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 2: might sleep an hour here or too. I can't stop 199 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 2: checking my phone, can't stop calling guys, can't stop listening 200 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 2: to rumors. It's it's like a fun week, but it sucks, 201 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 2: Like you know, when you don't sleep and you just 202 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 2: feel gross. That's how I feel right now, Like I 203 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 2: just feel gross, like everything tastes gross. Uh, it's it's 204 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 2: the worst. Humans need sleep, so you start going a 205 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 2: little crazy, and you know when the will Levis stuff 206 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: starts happening, because obviously. 207 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, hold on, like we gotta got 208 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: touch into that. 209 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: So like say, I was good, sound asleep. I had 210 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 2: to get up at whatever. We had a meeting at 211 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 2: five am, Hawaii time, so I was like, all right, 212 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 2: I'll set my alarm clock, get up at whatever it 213 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: is four four thirty for our meeting. I literally touched 214 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: my pillow. I fell like at ten o'clock and my 215 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 2: eyes were open at midnight to just never any amount 216 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 2: of calls and text So just been up all night. 217 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 2: It's just one of those where when the market moves, 218 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: people go crazy. I think you know that being in 219 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: the sports media industry, it's just a week of hearsay. 220 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 2: It's never any amount of your say. So it is. 221 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 2: It's a bit much, Chad, but I love it. It's 222 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 2: just a fun week. 223 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: All right. Couple things here. Number one, you've got a 224 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: strange sense of what it means when your wife is pregnant. 225 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 1: I don't remember doing any of that, but I do 226 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: remember being up every hour last night because I ate 227 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: too much and drank too much and went to bed 228 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: too late. So that's the feeling when I'm mostly am 229 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: uncomfortable at night. 230 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 2: Well, Chad, you're a scientologist. You're kids grown in a laboratory, 231 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 2: so you didn't meet your kidn't tell you? Was like, 232 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 2: so that makes sense. I laughed through the pain. 233 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: I'm a real person. Let's talk about this Will level 234 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: stuff because we have to frame it. And and Luke 235 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: swayin Vegas refund who has just been crushing his draft 236 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: coverage and sort of the on the on the Action 237 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: Network podcast which everyone should be listening to. Uh, and 238 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: obviously he did it with Nick Carrisco UH a couple 239 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: of weeks ago, but actually was yesterday. He's been tracking 240 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 1: all this. So the Will lets story is at some 241 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: point today a someone in Reddit posted that Will Levis 242 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: is going number one, that he's been telling people around 243 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: him that Charlotte is taking number one, taking them number one. 244 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: Shortly thereafter, his odds to go number one moved from 245 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: forty to one to seven to one. And remember, over 246 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: the past couple weeks he was not even considered to 247 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: be like top two on anyone's board, right, so this 248 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: post goes viral. The reporting of the odds move causes 249 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: the line to drop even further. People look into the 250 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: reddit user, it's shown that he is likely a troll. 251 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: So the question is right now, Levis odds are currently 252 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: anywhere from plus two fifty to plus eight hundred, obviously 253 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: a massive gap. But Bryce Young, who has had his 254 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: odds go as high as minus three thousand, we've talked 255 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 1: about over the past couple of weeks, are now down 256 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: to minus seven hundred. What are we doing here, Simon? 257 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: Why would anyone want to bet this market? Explain this 258 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: to people. 259 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 2: I've been trying to tell people though, this is this 260 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 2: is the whole point of why we bet. What the 261 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 2: public doesn't thing is going to happen. It's like, no 262 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 2: one really knows they can move the odds all they want. 263 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 2: In the end, they really don't know until the GM 264 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: or the owner of Carolina Panthers tell them exactly what 265 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 2: they're doing. They don't know they're letting the money in 266 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 2: the market dictated. So how does the money in the 267 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 2: market dictate these picks? Chat? We've seen it all the time. 268 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 2: If a well known name puts out a mock, it 269 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 2: moves the market, and you know, you can say what 270 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 2: you want about this Reddi kid. Pros have been taking 271 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 2: a position on this Levis guy, Like I've talked to 272 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 2: multiple pros who keep saying this guy's going to Houston. 273 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: This guy's going to be a top five pick. This 274 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 2: guy's going to be a top four pick. I don't 275 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 2: see it. I get I've graded the kid. I watch 276 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 2: all his film. Man, it's just a weird time. This 277 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 2: draft is really weird, Chat, and we keep talking about this. 278 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 2: If there is no consensus number one guy, it's gonna 279 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 2: be chaos. And it felts like we kept talking about 280 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 2: the Baker draft, and that's what this draft feels like. 281 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 2: It's like, I mean, Sam Darnold all months, for multiple months, 282 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 2: was talking about being the number one pick. He got 283 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: up to a minus one thousand at one point, and 284 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: then we talked about that Baker Mayfield news came out, 285 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: and then by Thursday morning, Baker Mayfield was a favorite 286 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: to go to the Brown. So me and Chat I 287 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 2: both have opinions on this draft. To me, the Levis 288 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 2: thing is just crazy, Like I mean, Matt Mitchell's losing 289 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 2: his mind about it. He doesn't get it at all. 290 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 2: He was talking about him being a bum months ago, 291 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 2: so it cracks me up thinking about what he's thinking. 292 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 2: But from the betting perspective, I love it because it 293 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 2: just I had my doubts about the Bryce Young thing. 294 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 2: I kept telling you. I even when I was up 295 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: to minus twenty five hundred, I was like, I guess 296 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 2: he's the pick, but I don't believe it until I 297 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 2: hear his name called and see it actually happen. I 298 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 2: just can't believe a guy who's five ten one eight 299 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 2: is going to be a number one pick. So I 300 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 2: talked to a bunch of pros over the night. They're 301 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 2: happy about it. They love the public movie this number. 302 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 2: So the way they we all talked about it goes 303 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: okay on Reddit. There's millions of people on Reddit. They're 304 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 2: gonna see this post, right, So say just twenty thousand 305 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,880 Speaker 2: of these people each bet one hundred dollars, Right, that's 306 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 2: how much you're limited to on this Levis bet. That's 307 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 2: a lot of money being portant to the market at 308 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 2: really weird hours. Right. You said it got posted either 309 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 2: in the morning or last night, whenever it was. The 310 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 2: book makers. They're gonna wake up. The big time guys 311 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: are gonna be like, okay, we need to move this number. 312 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 2: So we saw a big overreaction. The market is starting 313 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: to settle a little bit, right, like you talked about. 314 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 2: So to me, the Levis thing gives me hope in 315 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 2: the sense it won't be I need anyone with Bryce Young. 316 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 2: You've been in one pick. Literally anybody but Bryce Young 317 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 2: will be amazing for me. I will I need desperately 318 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 2: to If it's well Levis, I'd be amazing. But I'd 319 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 2: be pulling my hair out if I was a Carolina 320 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 2: Panthers fan. I mean, I'm sure you as a as 321 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:51,959 Speaker 2: a Bears fan, you lose your mind too if you're 322 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 2: a drafting this kid. So yeah, chat, this is as 323 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 2: someone that loves betting the draft. This is as as 324 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 2: it gets. It's nobody knows any people are gonna do 325 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 2: all their little mocks. They're gonna make all their predictions. 326 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 2: No one knows. It's all based off of their own information. 327 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 2: They're hearing from different people. So that's why it's the best. 328 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: We spend our entire existence as people in the betting space. 329 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: You at the very high end, me, you know, just 330 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 1: below you at the at the next level, a very 331 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: high end. I don't know why you're laughing. And all 332 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: of our time is spent looking for an edge. Our 333 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: entire lives, everything we do, it's spent looking for some 334 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,239 Speaker 1: edge in some way. That's how you win. That's how 335 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: you get by right. And so you've talked about this. 336 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: Luke has talked about this, framing it as it's the 337 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 1: only test where you know the answers. We don't know 338 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: any fucking answers. This feels like misery to me. Why 339 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,959 Speaker 1: is this a Why is this something you want to 340 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: invest six figures in when it feels like there is 341 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 1: so much unpredictability you can't find any edge. 342 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 2: Because when I hit, I hit big. And that's what's 343 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 2: so much fun about I mean, we tall all the time, 344 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 2: but that Trey Lance that was that's gonna be one 345 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 2: of my biggest ones ever and like it's funny thing 346 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 2: back that I'll ever forget. You wanted me to do 347 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 2: a live hit with you about Trey Lance being the 348 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 2: third pick, And I was driving down to AC and 349 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 2: I pulled over and say it was just I don't know, 350 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 2: say it was thirty minutes. I mean, you're setting up 351 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 2: doing a little quick hit. And then I got down there, 352 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: the number moved from plus six hundred to plus three hundred, 353 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 2: and so this was even before we even posted anything. 354 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 2: And then once we posted, it dropped all way down 355 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 2: to I think whatever, plus one hundred by the time 356 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 2: the draft even came around. So it's one of those 357 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 2: where there is good info Like that's why I try 358 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 2: to be very patient about it, because good info does 359 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,679 Speaker 2: eventually come out, But some years you're not gonna get 360 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 2: the right stuff because you don't know the right people 361 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 2: that know the right gms, don't know the right owners. 362 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: Like that's why this year, I mean, it's truly I 363 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 2: had tip to the Panthers. They've been really smart about 364 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: everything they've done. Like every week they're saying the right 365 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 2: things to try to not just throw people off the scent. 366 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 2: But they knew what we talked about Bryce Young Houston. 367 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 2: The Texans won in Bryce Young, so they talked all 368 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 2: week about how great he was without ever saying, no, 369 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 2: he's gonna be our pick. You know, people are like, well, 370 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 2: the NFL doesn't want them to leak that stuff. I 371 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 2: think we knew Turl Larrence and I'm gonna pick chat 372 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 2: what like two months before he was actually the numer 373 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 2: one pick by the Jaguars. The NFL doesn't really care 374 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: that much. Right, people are going to tune in. It's 375 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 2: a spectacle. It's it is what it is. So to me, 376 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 2: it's it's interesting that nothing has been leaked, because stuff 377 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 2: gets leaked this week. But if Will Levis is really 378 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 2: the leak, I mean some pros you can say you want, 379 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 2: the public got on that, but someone was on it 380 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 2: because that numbers moved a lot, like you just talked about, 381 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 2: it went from sixty to one just twelve hours ago 382 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 2: to what it's down to now, which is like plus 383 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 2: two fifty at some books. So I think that's why 384 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 2: I love betting. It is because of that, where it's like, 385 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,199 Speaker 2: if you get the right info and if you hit 386 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 2: it right, you can make a ton of money on 387 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 2: the draft. It really is like a thief to these 388 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 2: books because there's no system they can build to stop it. 389 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 2: They're just going off rumors and what they're hearing. So 390 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 2: it is one of my favorite things to bet, but 391 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: it's also, like you just said, it's very dangerous. You 392 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: can lose a lot of money on it if you're 393 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: listening to the wrong people. 394 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: Will Levis right now bet three sixty five plus five hundred, 395 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 1: Bryce Young minus nine hundred. Again, a week ago, Bryce 396 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: Young was probably minus three thousand. Will Levis was nowhere 397 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,959 Speaker 1: close to plus five hundred. He was closer. He was 398 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 1: lower than Will Anderson I think at that time, and 399 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: Will Anderson now is like two hundred to one. I 400 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: know now to go number one. And Evan Abrams, our 401 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: director of research, has said this, if you've got four quarterbacks, 402 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,479 Speaker 1: you've got no quarterbacks. And I think that's what is 403 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: making this draft so interesting. 404 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, so. 405 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 1: The next question becomes, we are forty eight, you know, 406 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: fifty hours from fifty four hours from the draft. Let's 407 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: say we don't really know who's gonna go where what 408 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: bets are making us the most comfortable right now? I've 409 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: got ideas, but but like when you look at this, 410 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: where are you feeling? Okay? This is the one where 411 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: I do think I know what's going to happen. 412 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: I'm on the few that I've just stuck to that. 413 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 2: I do think the quarterbacks will be the ones to 414 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 2: go up top. Like I know that Will Anderson to 415 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 2: you know, they're suposed to Arizona and all these rumors 416 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 2: boy him going to the Cardinals at pick three. I've 417 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 2: been saying it feels like for two months the Cardinals 418 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 2: aren't going to make that pick unless their GM is 419 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 2: a total idiot. There is no way they should be 420 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,640 Speaker 2: making that pick. Of number three. They have to trade down. 421 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 2: They just they need so many more assets, and they're 422 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 2: in a division where, yeah, the forty nine ers are 423 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 2: really good, the Seahawks are really good, but you need 424 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 2: to start building around caller Murray're giving the guy all 425 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 2: this money. You just can't make a pick there. I mean, 426 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: there's no one player fixed to this team. So to me, 427 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 2: I still think there'll be one ghost quarterback, two goes quarterback, 428 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 2: three ghost quarterback, and four ghost quarterback. And it just 429 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 2: lines up where I either think it's gonna be Tennessee 430 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 2: or Vegas that trades into that little three spot and 431 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: makes the pick there. It just makes sense these teams 432 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 2: that want a quarterback of the future, that's a nice 433 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: spot to move into. Both of them have a quarterback 434 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 2: Tennessee as Tannehill, Vegas still as Jimmy Garoppolo. So those 435 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 2: are both teams where you can draft the guy and 436 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,400 Speaker 2: let him sit for a year or so. Will Anderson 437 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 2: over three and a half, I couldn't bet enough on that, 438 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 2: I really couldn't. I mean it was one of those 439 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 2: bets Ip making over the weekend, and we've seen it 440 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 2: now that if they do stay there, if the Cardinals 441 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 2: do stay there. It seems like they're gonna take this 442 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 2: offensive tackle from Ohio State. So to me, you know, 443 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 2: it's one of those where I'm making this bet off 444 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 2: a lot of knocks, But then it's also based off 445 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 2: of what teams are saying, and it seems like a 446 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 2: lot of the scouts, especially the ones in Arizona, they 447 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 2: didn't they weren't all in on will Anderson. It seemed 448 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 2: like there was other guys in the mix. So you 449 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 2: can still get his over, but it might be juiced 450 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 2: up down over minus two hundred and minus two fifty 451 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 2: just because people have been betting it. But I still 452 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 2: like that at over three and a half. I just 453 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 2: I don't see Arizona taking them. I don't see Tech 454 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 2: the Texans taking them either. I just people keep saying 455 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 2: that Texas will take a quarterback at twelve. I don't 456 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: see any of these guys making it at the top ten. 457 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 2: It's just it just seems like every team at different 458 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 2: grades on these quarterbacks, and each team is gonna be 459 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,399 Speaker 2: willing to trade up to get one of these guys. 460 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: This could go down as the greatest draft in history 461 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: or the biggest bust draft in history. I don't think 462 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 1: they're the middle ground for this draft, because if you're 463 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 1: saying people are not sold on Will Anderson, they're not 464 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: sold on Bryce Young, they're not sold on Will Levis, 465 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: They're not sold on Anthony Richardson. Like there's no surefire consensus, 466 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 1: which the last couple of years we have felt like 467 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: we've had some surefires, right Like Sauce Gardner came in 468 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 1: and people thought sauce Gardner would immediately be what he was. 469 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence got drafted, people thought he would turn into 470 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 1: what he turned into this year. It only took longer 471 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,240 Speaker 1: because he had such an epic imbecile as a coach 472 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,719 Speaker 1: in his rookie year and was surrounded by so much incompetence. 473 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 1: So there's no surefire in this draft unless unless unless 474 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:55,680 Speaker 1: it's Jalen Carter. 475 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 2: Well, again, he's got a lot of question marks too, 476 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 2: But I think Chad, it's honestly, I'm just I'm one 477 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 2: of those people where I try to keep it as 478 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 2: real as I can because everyone's in the mindset of 479 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 2: this is like we talk about this is like before 480 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 2: week one, where your team doesn't suck yet it's all happiness, 481 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 2: It's all hype, and that's what this draft is like. 482 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: Everyone's like, oh, well, my team's drafted this guy. There's 483 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 2: no way he's gonna be a bus and that's just 484 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 2: not the truth. And when we talk all the time 485 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 2: first round quarterbacks, I think it's over sixty percent now 486 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 2: end up being nothing's right, it's a very small number. 487 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 2: So you know that draft of Mac Jones, Trey Lance, 488 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence. I said it on this show, 489 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 2: if you're lucky, there'll be one All Pro out of 490 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 2: this draft and maybe two Pro Bowlers. So right now, 491 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 2: what it's looking like, Chad, you're feeling pretty good. You 492 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 2: got justin Fields. He looks like he's gonna be a 493 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 2: Pro bowler. Trevor Lawrence looks like he's gonna be a 494 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 2: Pro bowler. Zach Wilson's on his way out of the league. 495 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 2: I mean he's already been replaced. Trey Lances apparently on 496 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 2: the trading block. So I mean Mac Jones as well, 497 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 2: could be out of town. Like it's one of those 498 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,239 Speaker 2: where it's getting weird now with the Patriots. So I 499 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,479 Speaker 2: hate being that guy because I know exciting all this 500 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 2: is for teams, but it's just realistic. So that's why 501 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 2: the Anthony Richardson I've been pounding the table for him 502 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 2: for so long. It's just he has the most upside 503 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,439 Speaker 2: if he goes to the right team. The kid's twenty. 504 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 2: He turns twenty one and may twenty second, so you 505 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 2: put him on the right team. This kid, when he 506 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 2: signs his new contract in five years, he'll be twenty 507 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 2: six heading into his prime. There's other guys on this list. 508 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 2: This Will Levis will be twenty nine when he signs 509 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 2: his next contract. So that's something that I weigh into 510 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 2: all this where it's like, Okay, I want to take 511 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 2: the young athlete with a ton of upside that I 512 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 2: can mold into why I want him to be, rather 513 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: than the guy that's already is what he is, Like 514 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 2: Bryce Young. Yes, this kid has an incredible amount of talent. 515 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 2: I think he is what he is. I just can't 516 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 2: see him building that much off off of it. Like 517 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 2: his body, he doesn't have the shoulders for it, Like 518 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 2: there's not much of a body frame to build on, 519 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 2: and there's only so much you can build on with 520 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 2: his body, Like he's five ten one e. How much 521 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 2: arm trains do you think you can put into this 522 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 2: kid's body. It's just not possible. So a lot of 523 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 2: that goes into when I when I build out and 524 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 2: model these quarterbacks. And that's why I like I like Anderson. 525 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 2: I think Anderson's a really good player. But I would 526 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 2: like you just talked about Carter. I know Carter's issues 527 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 2: off the field, I would still take the kick because 528 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 2: I just think his his floor is so low. Like 529 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 2: this guy, you draft him, you're just gonna make him 530 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 2: your nose tackle or whatever, your detackle, and he's just 531 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 2: gonna change the whole the whole vibe of your whole 532 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 2: team will be changed with this guy and that defensive 533 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 2: line because he's gonna eat up two linemen every time. 534 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: Like that's a big deal. So it's just the way 535 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 2: it is, Chadwick. At this time of year, you're just 536 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 2: gonna hear so much negatives about guys because of we 537 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 2: talk all the time. It's like, who has the best 538 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 2: agent right now? In my opinion, the best agent is 539 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 2: Well Levis, Like, holy shit, is this guy's age? You 540 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 2: really taking this to another level? I mean, hop on 541 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 2: Twitter today you never will not see this guy's name 542 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: and his biggest night of his life is in two days, 543 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 2: so it's just a big, big week for agents and owners. 544 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 2: Tell him lies, all right. 545 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: There's also a big conversation happening right now at running 546 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: back Jean Bijon, Dijon Robinson and Jamiir Gibbs from Alabama, 547 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 1: and Bijeon has been the guy. We talked about him 548 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: a lot last week. Everyone has talked about is potentially 549 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: being the best overall player in this draft, but all 550 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: of a sudden there's conversation that Gibbs could overtake him 551 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: as the first running back taken. So here's my question 552 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: for you. 553 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 2: Do you bet? 554 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: Do you bet over one and a half total running 555 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: backs to be taken in the first round of the draft? 556 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 2: I bet it, I'll be honest. I'm one of those people. 557 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 2: I did just because of Peter King's mock draft, Like 558 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 2: he put it out there and I was like, okay, 559 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 2: this has because I like the kid. But we talked 560 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 2: about time teams just don't take these running backs in 561 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: the first round. Now, when you break it down like 562 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 2: he didn't make sense, like the Eagle is Detroit, there's 563 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 2: a bunch of teams I want a running back at 564 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 2: the end of that first round that they don't get 565 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 2: Robinson in the top ten, why not take him in 566 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 2: the back end. The guy can plast block and catch 567 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 2: up on the backfield. I mean, we talk all the 568 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: time these bam are running backs. They do eventually break down, 569 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 2: like all running backs too, but for the first five 570 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 2: years they're pretty damn good. I mean, Derek Henry's first 571 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 2: five years were pretty incredible. So the whole notion that 572 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 2: a team would trade back into the first round and 573 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 2: take a running back that seems a bit far stretch. 574 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 2: But there are teams at the back end of this 575 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 2: draft I could say to see taking a running back there. 576 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 2: So I like a chat over one and a half 577 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 2: running backs taking their first round. I think it was 578 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 2: plus one ten Peter King put out as mock. I 579 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 2: think a dropped down on minus one fifteen minus one 580 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 2: twenty in most books. Now, I'd still take that number 581 00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 2: at bet three six y five, But it's it's tough 582 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 2: where you know that's just gonna be the public play, right, 583 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 2: the public gloves betting overs. We've seen the QB market 584 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 2: move the over four and a half has just been 585 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 2: absolutely pounded, So same thing with the running back. I 586 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 2: can see it get up to minus one thirty, minus 587 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 2: one forty by the time this draft starts on Thursday. 588 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 2: It's just a lot a lot of people talking about 589 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 2: two running backs in the first round. 590 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: Now, all right, so I follow you in the app. 591 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: I want you to break down right now the picks 592 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: you've posted in the app for the draft, so people 593 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: can know exactly what you're betting. 594 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 2: I mean, I can tell you that off the top 595 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 2: of my head. I know for a fact I bet 596 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 2: the z Flowers under we talked last year. I just 597 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 2: love that. Bet the sky is a five nine, five 598 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 2: to ten speed stair that plays on the outside. There's 599 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 2: so many different ways you're gonna be able to use 600 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 2: this kid. So you know, I didn't know where he 601 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 2: was going to go. Now, talking to Evan, it felt 602 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: like it made sense that when he said he would 603 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 2: go to the Seahawks A picked twenty, that just makes 604 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 2: sense to me. You can still get it a plus 605 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 2: number two, just because there's just so many teams that 606 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 2: not that this is a bad wide receiver class, but 607 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 2: this is this is a dawn wide receiver class. Like, 608 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 2: let's be honest, this isn't that great of a group. 609 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 2: So it's one of those where it's making sense. Its 610 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 2: plus no, it's plus money. But I think it's one 611 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 2: of those that when he gets drafted, i'd say the 612 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 2: Seahawks do take him where a team does around there, 613 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 2: like you know Green Bay now might be a team 614 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 2: that might take this kid. Like there's a bunch of 615 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 2: different teams that need a wide receiver. It would just 616 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 2: make sense for a team to reach and take this 617 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 2: kid because there's not that many good receivers in this draft. 618 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 2: So that was definitely when I made her away. Robinson 619 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 2: be a top ten pick. Chat, I love it. I 620 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 2: love this pick so much. 621 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 1: He's just do you think it'll be Howie? 622 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 2: I don't know, because I have someone I really really 623 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 2: am well connected with on the Eagles, and I thought 624 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 2: all week it was going to be him, and I 625 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 2: would say two weeks ago, this kid this he honestly 626 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 2: made it seem like it was definitely gonna be Robinson, 627 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 2: Like if he was there, I picked ten for the Eagles. 628 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 2: It was either Ham or Carter was the guy that 629 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 2: really wanted a ten. Carter seems like that's gone. We've 630 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 2: seen his over under drop from seven and a half 631 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 2: down to six and a half after he met with Detroit. 632 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 2: Apparently Campbell absolutely loved him, So that makes sense, right, 633 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,320 Speaker 2: that Campbell loves the kid. Detroit would take Carter now. 634 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 2: It wouldn't shocked if the Eagles did take an old alignment, 635 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 2: but it just doesn't make sense for an Eagles team 636 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 2: that's to win now mode. It's just the Robinson pick 637 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 2: makes so much sense for this team. It's literally, you know, 638 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 2: not that this kid's gonna be j Peterson, but that's 639 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 2: the upside you have here, like the Saquon upside. Like 640 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 2: it's just I hate taking running backs as high. But 641 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 2: when you're a team like the Eagles, where you already 642 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 2: have the old line, you have an aging defense, like 643 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 2: our D line is pretty damn old like a lot 644 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 2: of these guys, this is it for them, right, So 645 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 2: you know, I argue with a bunch of people about it. 646 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 2: But the skuy I talked to, he seems like the 647 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 2: Eagles are gonna go D line just because they're line 648 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 2: is getting older. So if you want to make that 649 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 2: a bet, I understand it. But to me, I'm in 650 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 2: on Robinson. Do you think the Eagles are going to 651 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 2: take them? I still think the Seahawks are outside chance 652 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 2: to take them at pick five. We talked about that 653 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 2: sixty six to one to be a top five pick. 654 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy people, but the Seahawks think 655 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 2: Gino's legit. They paid them. I've talked to a couple 656 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 2: of different scouts for them, and they love Robinson like 657 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 2: they can't go to how good this kid is. So 658 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,440 Speaker 2: they're from a point of view of, well, we'll do 659 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 2: the Hurts move. We'll take a quarterback there. If one 660 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,479 Speaker 2: of these guys we like slips the five, they're gonna 661 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,320 Speaker 2: take a quarterback to Seahawks. I talked to multiple people 662 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,760 Speaker 2: within that organization that like a quarterback of that spot. 663 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,720 Speaker 2: If not, they like Robinson, and if Anderson's still there, 664 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 2: they're gonna take them apparently. So the Seahawks are in 665 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 2: a great spot, dude. They're going to trade out right, 666 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 2: get a good bounty on in trade back, or they're 667 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 2: gonna take a really high level player at that pick five. 668 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 2: So the Robinson pick just makes sense. We saw the 669 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 2: the number move too. We did our show. I think 670 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,799 Speaker 2: this was plus one twenty five. Now he's minus you 671 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 2: know one twenty minus one thirty be the top ten pick. 672 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,240 Speaker 2: It just seems like it's either gonna be those teams 673 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 2: up there, Detroit at picked six to take them, or Atlanta. 674 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 2: We've heard a lot of chatter about Atlanta take them 675 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,760 Speaker 2: at pick eight. So again, just a lot of teams 676 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,240 Speaker 2: on the board that would take them. The only team 677 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 2: that would shock me would be your Chicago Bears to 678 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:15,359 Speaker 2: that that would shock me if they took them there, 679 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 2: just because you know, you guys have a lot of 680 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 2: a lot of holes. You still need to fill an 681 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 2: offensive line and defensive line. So I could see that's 682 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 2: that's gonna play for the Bears. So that's the one 683 00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 2: team I'm pretty sure will not be taking Robinson. 684 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,480 Speaker 1: But the other teams, it makes no sense for the 685 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,400 Speaker 1: Bears to take a running back. As we've been saying, 686 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: the theme in the way rosters are constructed right now 687 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: is very much running backs are worth taking in the 688 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 1: first round if you are one running back away from 689 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,719 Speaker 1: having a roster that is ready to make a run. 690 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 1: The Bears are not one running back away from making 691 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,760 Speaker 1: a run. They are many. No, no, don't give me that, No, no, no. 692 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 2: No, no. I got high hopes. 693 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: The Bear don't have anyone in the front seven that 694 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 1: scares anybody. 695 00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,399 Speaker 2: Say with me though, ding Dong, the Witch is dead, 696 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:13,359 Speaker 2: Rogers is gone, brother, Yeah, but wide open spaces. 697 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 1: For a running back to run all over the field, that. 698 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,320 Speaker 2: Would just be fun. To have Robinson with justin fields. 699 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 2: That'd be an insane combination. It would. 700 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,359 Speaker 1: I feel like the Bears have built up a lot 701 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 1: of good will during acquisition season with the way they've 702 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:33,360 Speaker 1: managed the cap, the way they've managed their draft assets. Yeah, 703 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:37,760 Speaker 1: to not draft Jalen Carter or to not draft somebody 704 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:41,440 Speaker 1: who can play left tackle would send the fan base 705 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:48,759 Speaker 1: into such a tizzy. People would lose their minds. If 706 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 1: you drafted a running back top ten, they would absolutely 707 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 1: lose their minds. That's what I think about the Bears now. 708 00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 2: It's all the staff from Matt Mitchell. It's make me 709 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,800 Speaker 2: feel pretty good. Good. Since nineteen two or more running 710 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 2: backs have gone in the first round thirty five out 711 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 2: of forty three drafts. So that's that's pretty pretty insane people. 712 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 2: If you think about betting those odds, feels like it's 713 00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,000 Speaker 2: it's pretty good bet. The bet two runningbacks going in 714 00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 2: the first round. 715 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 1: Current odds for bijon team Atlanta plus two fifty Houston 716 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 1: six p fifty Philly seven fifty, Washington eight point fifty, 717 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 1: New England, Dallas plus twelve hundred, Tennessee, Detroit plus fourteen, 718 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 1: Chicago fifteen to one, Chargers eighteen, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Seattle not 719 00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 1: on that list. That's interesting. Here's the question from and 720 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,120 Speaker 1: by the way, Jamiir Gibbs, he's currently being mocked. The 721 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 1: average pick is thirty two point three. 722 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,880 Speaker 2: So only thirty one picks in the first round? Though, 723 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:48,680 Speaker 2: is Miami last? 724 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,800 Speaker 1: I know, it's just outside the first round. That's awesome. 725 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: Right now, we've been talking about Will Anderson. Tyree Wilson 726 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 1: has been making a lot of noise moving up. Yeah, 727 00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,759 Speaker 1: and so the truth is, while we've talked about Will Anderson, 728 00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 1: the first defensive player drafted, Tyree Wilson right now minus 729 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 1: one twenty five at bet three six five, Will Anderson 730 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 1: plus one hundred. 731 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,200 Speaker 2: Again the shot out to Vegas Refrunt. He was on 732 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 2: this a month ago, was talking about this guy could 733 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:21,399 Speaker 2: move up a draft ward to think he gave him 734 00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 2: out in our slack group at nine to one. I 735 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 2: didn't agree with it because I just couldn't see it happening. Now, 736 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,399 Speaker 2: everything you hear it seems like Houston loves this guy, 737 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:35,919 Speaker 2: and same with Arizona, so you know I could see 738 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,359 Speaker 2: it happen for sure. I just again, I just see 739 00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 2: it going quarterback quarterback, and that's where the Seahawks fall 740 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 2: into us. I think they're gonna be their first team 741 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:48,239 Speaker 2: to decide who gets defensive player drafted. That's why I 742 00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,080 Speaker 2: know it sounds crazy, but still I still have a 743 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,360 Speaker 2: little bit of money on Jalen Carter to be the 744 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 2: first defensive player take and just in just in case 745 00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 2: the Seahawks don't take a defensive player, there they go 746 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 2: offense that I picked six, Detroit will be the first 747 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,200 Speaker 2: team to take a defensive player. I think they just 748 00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,279 Speaker 2: love Carter. So I've seen a couple of books having 749 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 2: that fifty to one for Carter to be their first 750 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:13,440 Speaker 2: defensive player just because he's just had terrible press this 751 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:19,399 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. Yeah to me, Chad, it might 752 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,520 Speaker 2: be seven teams. Now I have to check my notes again, 753 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,200 Speaker 2: but I literally talked to seven different teams that they 754 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,439 Speaker 2: have him off their board. So I means they would 755 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 2: even take Carter if he fell out of the first round. 756 00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 2: That's how bad they think his personality is, his worth, ethic, everything, 757 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,239 Speaker 2: so just something to keep in mind with people that 758 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:38,880 Speaker 2: you know, I might be alling on Carter, there are 759 00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,800 Speaker 2: a lot of teams that are not. And that's definitely 760 00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,200 Speaker 2: a scary scary thing. You're talking about teams giving these 761 00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:45,920 Speaker 2: guys and millions and millions of dollars in a five 762 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 2: year contract. 763 00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,239 Speaker 1: It's a lot currently sixteen to one at BET three 764 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: six five to be the first defensive player taken is 765 00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 1: Jalen Carter? All right, I think it's one thing you 766 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,560 Speaker 1: said about Za Flowers. Wouldn't it be funny if the 767 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:09,560 Speaker 1: Packers decided they're taking a wide receiver in the first round. 768 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,360 Speaker 1: Didn't Evan go over it with us a couple of 769 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:16,240 Speaker 1: weeks ago where he noted how they have basically spent 770 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:20,040 Speaker 1: every first round draft pick on an offensive lineman, a 771 00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:25,400 Speaker 1: defensive lineman, or a linebacker during Aaron Rodgers' career, and 772 00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,800 Speaker 1: then the second he leaves, they take a wide receiver 773 00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:29,560 Speaker 1: to help his bet his replacement. 774 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,240 Speaker 2: I know, but I was one of the few people 775 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 2: that I think it's smart. Like I thought what they 776 00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 2: did all those years was smart, which was if you 777 00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,560 Speaker 2: have an all pro, all world QB, you can find 778 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 2: really good receivers in the second third rounds, which is 779 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,759 Speaker 2: what they did. Like they found a Jordan Nelson, they 780 00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,239 Speaker 2: found a DeVante Adams, like they found these guys in 781 00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:51,399 Speaker 2: the second third rounds that turned into all pros because 782 00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,919 Speaker 2: they had Rogers. So I got where people are coming 783 00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,759 Speaker 2: from that they never supported him, but it's like, holy shit, people, 784 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,040 Speaker 2: didn't he go to four NFC Championship games and then 785 00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,839 Speaker 2: he lost them, three of them at home. I don't know. 786 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,400 Speaker 2: I think that. I think that Green Bay did it 787 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:09,919 Speaker 2: pretty well. Again, I'm all in on the Bears, but 788 00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,600 Speaker 2: the Jordan Love stuff is exciting, like I think all 789 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,720 Speaker 2: of us. I mean, it sounds fucked up, but Packer 790 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,680 Speaker 2: fans we all want you guys have a shitty quarterback. 791 00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,560 Speaker 2: You literally went from Bev far to Aaron Rodgers, Like 792 00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,319 Speaker 2: no one should be so lucky. So if Jordan Love 793 00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:25,920 Speaker 2: is the truth, it's gonna hurt. But they got a 794 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:27,960 Speaker 2: decision to make. I think they have a week left 795 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:29,600 Speaker 2: and they have to pick up the fifth year option. 796 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,040 Speaker 2: I think it's twenty million dollars for Jordan Love. So 797 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,440 Speaker 2: at times they are changing green Bay. I mean, you 798 00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 2: look at that team on paper chat. They are bad 799 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,520 Speaker 2: at so I would agree for the first time in 800 00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,320 Speaker 2: a long time. They probably should take a wide receiver 801 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 2: with that first pick in the first round. 802 00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:49,120 Speaker 1: The last time Brett Farvar Aaron Rodgers weren't playing quarterback 803 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:56,399 Speaker 1: regularly for the green Bay Packers. I was watching Dan 804 00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:02,560 Speaker 1: magic Kowski in my college dorm room. 805 00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,399 Speaker 2: What is that like? Ninety ninety three? 806 00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:05,919 Speaker 1: I think it's ninety one. 807 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,520 Speaker 2: Holy shit. Yeah, green Bay has been spoiled. 808 00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:14,520 Speaker 1: Honest to god, Damn, that is insane. One more staff 809 00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:20,600 Speaker 1: from Crack researcher Evan Abrams before we get out here, 810 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,040 Speaker 1: get out of here. We were talking about the New 811 00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,839 Speaker 1: York Jets season win totals earlier. It's currently at nine 812 00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:27,799 Speaker 1: and a half. Sitting at nine and a half, you're 813 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,120 Speaker 1: hoping it will go up a little bit. The last 814 00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 1: time since twenty twenty so the past twenty three years 815 00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:39,360 Speaker 1: that the Jets have had preseason double digit wins since 816 00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:44,479 Speaker 1: two thousand, twenty eleven, and that year they finished eight 817 00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,600 Speaker 1: and eight. I'm starting to like that. Jets under nine 818 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 1: and a half. Last year we bet Jets under I 819 00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:51,040 Speaker 1: think six and a half. 820 00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,399 Speaker 2: Six and a half. Yeah, And Rogers in his career 821 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,120 Speaker 2: is a double digit win total. He is three and 822 00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,759 Speaker 2: five to the under when it's greater than ten. So 823 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,040 Speaker 2: that's another stat that benefits off as if it's ten. 824 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:06,160 Speaker 2: Once again, if it's ten, that's just gonna be automatic underslam. 825 00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:10,240 Speaker 1: We're finding ear lean reminder. The Favorites Podcast is proudly 826 00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. 827 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,439 Speaker 1: Sign Up with promo code action to get BET three 828 00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,960 Speaker 1: six fives exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on 829 00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,279 Speaker 1: any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus. Bets 830 00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,600 Speaker 1: must be twenty one hour older. Offer is available in Colorado, 831 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,440 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Gambling problem call or text 832 00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:36,600 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. Also Matt Mitchell reminding us Green 833 00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:41,480 Speaker 1: Bay hasn't gone running back, wide receiver or tight end 834 00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:45,440 Speaker 1: in the first round since did you look at his 835 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,040 Speaker 1: slack yet, Simon? Because if not, I will, oh two 836 00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,560 Speaker 1: thousand and two, twenty one years. 837 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,520 Speaker 2: How you about how many championship games they've been to 838 00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,520 Speaker 2: compared to these other franchises'. I get where people are 839 00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,000 Speaker 2: coming from, but it clearly works. 840 00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,520 Speaker 1: Any bet you make right now based on where you 841 00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:08,040 Speaker 1: see the market moving before Thursday, I got I got one. 842 00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,480 Speaker 1: I'm just thinking about. 843 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,360 Speaker 2: I can't stop doing what I keep doing. But I 844 00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,799 Speaker 2: keep betting more money on CJ. Stroud to be a 845 00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,960 Speaker 2: top three, top two, top one pick, and I keep 846 00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:20,319 Speaker 2: betting money and INTHI you, we're just going to be 847 00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,880 Speaker 2: a top two, top three, top four pick. So I 848 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,239 Speaker 2: still it's gonna hurt Chad. I still don't think Bryce 849 00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,160 Speaker 2: Young's number one pick. I still think it's gonna be 850 00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,360 Speaker 2: someone else. So uh yeah, well we'll know even more Thursday, 851 00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,839 Speaker 2: our pregame show before the actual draft. I can't wait 852 00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:35,839 Speaker 2: for our Thursday show. 853 00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,320 Speaker 1: I would bet over four and a half quarterbacks in 854 00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:40,319 Speaker 1: the first round right now. 855 00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:42,720 Speaker 2: How dare you're going to get to Matt and Mitchell? 856 00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,320 Speaker 1: Though I don't care about Matt Mitchell. 857 00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably it's probably the right bet. I can't 858 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,880 Speaker 2: fucking do it, man. The hooker thing I keep, I keep, 859 00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:54,920 Speaker 2: I keep, and a bunch of pros are on that 860 00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,920 Speaker 2: bet with you, Chad, A lot of pros. I know 861 00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:59,600 Speaker 2: we're on that bet. They've really moved that number. Can't 862 00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,920 Speaker 2: do it that. You're telling me a kid who just 863 00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,480 Speaker 2: comeing off a major knee injuries twenty five years old 864 00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:06,200 Speaker 2: is going to be a first round pick. I really 865 00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:07,359 Speaker 2: can't wrap my head around it. 866 00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:12,440 Speaker 1: Five years from now, are we talking about Hendon Hooker? 867 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,880 Speaker 1: Are we more likely to be talking about Hendon Hooker 868 00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,560 Speaker 1: as a great quarterback who has led his team to 869 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,000 Speaker 1: three consecutive playoff runs? Or Will Levis? 870 00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,240 Speaker 2: I would say Will Levis because I just I hate 871 00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,800 Speaker 2: that guy more. I hate him even more than the Hooker, honestly, 872 00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,600 Speaker 2: So that's I will not be shocked if he has 873 00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,919 Speaker 2: a great career, just because I'm so down on him. 874 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:41,040 Speaker 1: All right. This has been the Favorites podcast from the 875 00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:46,120 Speaker 1: Action Network, probably presented by Bett three six five. We 876 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,960 Speaker 1: are back eleven a m. Eastern Time on Thursday with 877 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,279 Speaker 1: our final live show before the draft. Thank you for 878 00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,279 Speaker 1: joining us live on YouTube. Thank you for joining us 879 00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,200 Speaker 1: live on AMP. I am Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter, 880 00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:04,280 Speaker 1: producer extraordinary Matt also extra extra producer extraordinary. Charlie desterco 881 00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:09,400 Speaker 1: handling us live on YouTube today. We will be back 882 00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:14,400 Speaker 1: on Thursday. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, wherever 883 00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,880 Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, do not forget 884 00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:21,600 Speaker 1: to subscribe directly. The Favorites feed leave us five stars, 885 00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,440 Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time. 886 00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:35,359 Speaker 1: Love You Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If 887 00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,000 Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 888 00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,920 Speaker 1: help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight 889 00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:41,800 Speaker 1: hundred gambler