WEBVTT - 10 Fantasy Gambles + Early Spring Training ADP Risers (Ep. 623) 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:04.720 Risky business. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:07.600 to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.680 is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia with me today is 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:14.120 the Welsh who just turned his hat from backwards and forwards, 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:16.880 because one of our friends who we work with here 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:19.040 Fantasy Pros, always says, you want the bill your hat 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:22.160 facing the direction you want to go in life. That's forward, 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:24.400 that's right, that's your UK Winn. That's a shout out 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.440 to you. And today's show is about the ten risky 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.680 picks early on that we are just not feeling necessarily 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.279 or maybe we are and we like the risk. We'll 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.559 tell you what those names are and what that risk 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:37.920 might entail for you and your Fantasy Baseball futures of 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.559 twenty twenty three. We're also going to talk about some 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.640 early buzz. Our man the Welsh, is out there in 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:46.320 the trenches of spring training giving us some of the 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:48.760 early buzz. But we also seen in some of the 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.720 ADPs some guys starting to rise already with some news 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.000 and some different situations unfolding early in camps. So we're 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:58.440 going to talk about the early spring risers. And those 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:03.000 that might potentially sink or swim your fantasy team. Before 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.840 we get into all of them, don't forget everybody. Fantasypros 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:08.839 dot com slash draft Wizard. That's the place to run 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.080 your mock drafts. Get your mock draft on. Start preparing today. 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:16.360 It's free, it's free, it's fantastic, it's educational, it's it's 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:17.760 the what you need. It's what you need at the 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:19.200 end of the day to make sure you go and 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.760 get all your draft situations proper for all your leagues. Again, 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:25.760 download the app its spectacu or go to fantasypros dot 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:27.880 com slash draft Wizard. Run them. You can run one 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.360 hundred mock drafts all weekend. Whatever you want to do 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.120 to get prepared, So make sure you start that Welsh. 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.400 Let's start with some of the names here on the 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:39.840 risky picks. Again, risk is defined as you know, typically 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:43.680 a player that may or may not be worth the ADP. Now, 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.800 some risk we like because we know what the upside is. 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:49.400 Some risk we don't. So I want to know what 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.880 this first guy, what do you think about number one 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:53.920 on your list? Is this a risky player that you 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.560 are into for twenty twenty three or is the risk 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:57.320 just too much. 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.960 I'm going to be brutally on it that I go 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.400 back and forth pretty much every day on this, and 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:08.160 the player that I think is literally the riskiest player 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.359 is Fernando Tatis Junior. When you're talking about this. 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:12.160 He's built for this. 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:16.680 Why Because he's suspended for the first month it's about 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:20.280 April twentieth, he's eligible to come back. He also is 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.919 coming off of two shoulder surgeries and he's really kind 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:25.880 of looked like he's been injury prone. Third, obviously, there 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.440 is the other substance component of why he was suspended 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.480 that we can question, like what role did that ultimately 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:35.000 take in it? The last thing that gets on it 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.119 as far as the negative goes. Take all of those 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.600 things in a bundle and look at the cost you 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.840 do not get him past the twentieth pick. You are 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:45.680 paying full price for a player coming off of shoulder surgery, 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:50.119 suspension for a PD or whatever you know, you want 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:54.080 to call it ring ringworm medication, and you're taking all 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:56.480 of that into consideration, and you're paying a top twenty 0:02:56.840 --> 0:03:00.840 overall pick. The problem is, in two thousand and twenty one, 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.560 there wasn't many better fantasy players forty two homers, twenty 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.920 five stolen bases, and projections in general can't come off 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:10.960 of that because of the player that he is. His 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.880 batting average was great. Bat X has him at two 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.359 point eighty four, which by the way, is the highest 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.639 of any projection system. And I want you to understand 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.680 this first off, the bad X was so critical of 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:24.480 Fernando Tatist as a rookie. The bad X also, any 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:26.840 of these projections are meant to be lower. You don't 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.160 see that from this projection system. This is Derek Carties. 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.960 It was voted as the number one singular projection system 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.640 atc is like an aggregate. They were the most accurate 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:37.880 this year, voted by I believe it was Fantasy pros 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:42.760 and Derek Carties was like the second or the most 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:48.400 individual one. To see Derek have Fernando Tatis junior system 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.520 as the number one guy. That is eye opening. So 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:54.240 if you get thirty five homers, you get twenty stolen bases, 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.240 you almost get ninety ninety with a two eighty four 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.080 batting average. Guess what, You're golden even if it's one 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:01.160 hundred and twenty games. But you have all of those 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:04.120 other things that are staring at you. Lastly, if you 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.920 consider him a shortstop, it's a deep position in baseball. Luckily, 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:08.880 he's going to qualified outfield. Looks like he's gonna play 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:10.920 right field. That's what I saw him playing in one 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.960 of the instructional games before spring training started. So you 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.120 probably end up actually drafting him as an outfielder. But Joe, 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.680 I don't know how you quantify any other player as 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.000 being as risky as Fernando Tatis Junior. It's the biggest 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.440 risk reward I think in fantasy this year. 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:28.960 Yeah, but probably the biggest reward for the risk. And 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.320 I think at the end of the day, for me, 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:34.440 Tatis is worth that. It's funny looking at him on 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:37.200 Fantasy pros next to his name, it gives the little 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:40.599 abbreviation s US because he's suspended. But you know, my 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.239 daughters like to use the word sus. You know, that's 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:45.679 what a teenager i'd say, And he is a little sus. 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:50.159 He's in terms of personality, he's sus in terms of health. 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:54.159 At times, there's a lot of suss around Fernando Tattis Junior. 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.080 But well, the upside is just so much, you know me, 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.599 it's like I'm ricky, Bobby like I want to be first, 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:01.800 or Las like I'll go for it all. You know, 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:03.279 if you're gonna give him to me in the second 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:04.960 if you're giving him to me in the second round, 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:07.680 which is where he's going, he is a top five 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.360 potential talent that's not going to happen again next year 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:12.200 if he has the year that he has, So to me, 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:17.280 it's the perfect opportunity to go all in. And I agree, like, 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.320 if Bobby Wit is there, you don't need to take 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.760 that risk. But once Bobby wits off the board, maybe 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:23.919 Pete A. Lowns is off the board, Trouts off the board. 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:26.760 You're looking at the guys that you feel good about, 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:28.520 that you know they are, and then there's a guy 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:31.320 that could change the whole dynamic of your league, and 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.960 Tatis is that guy. So yeah, he's risky, but I 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:35.680 think that's a risk that I'm willing to take. Starling 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:37.240 Marte is the guy I want to talk about with you, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:41.120 because that's a guy that again I love the player, 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:45.000 love the power speed combination. The guy himself another guy too, 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.679 not a stranger to Pedis has mentioned in the past 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.560 as well, kind of like Tattis, but he's already kind 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.679 of coming off that groin issue. They're working him very slowly. 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.200 He's a little behind in camp too. That worries me 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:59.800 at another year older, worries me. Starling Marte is a 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.320 fan fantastic player. He is right now going as the 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.279 seventy first player off the board, and that's still a 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.159 pretty big investment where you worry about the health. You're 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:11.080 worrying about are you going to get one hundred and 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:14.080 forty games out of this guy? And that's a tall order. 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.440 I just don't know if that's the case. If you look, 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:19.760 the last time you played one hundred and forty games 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:23.599 was twenty eighteen, one forty five. Last two years he 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:25.760 played one twenty one eighteen. He's not a player that's 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.719 just been on the field very much. So in a 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:30.880 tough sell, it's a great lineup, it's a good situation. 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:35.240 At his peak, he is a twenty twenty kind of threat, 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.120 and there's not a lot of those guys floating around, 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.359 So I understand the risk. It's a little bit cheaper 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.680 than the guys were talking about the start here Fernando Tattis, 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.599 But is Marte too risky for you, he is right 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:46.479 on the border. For me, I think it depends on 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.960 the If it's a shallow league, a more app to 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:51.160 take that risk. But in a deeper league, I think 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:55.120 I pass on him for something a little bit less risky. 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:56.680 I guess yeah. 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.200 I mean I was gonna mention this with Tatis, like 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:01.680 it's worth the risk, and you slam on it in 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:03.680 the second round. But the problem is, like in a 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.320 fifteen team Roto's, it's a little bit tough for the 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:08.400 stomach where you're gonna have to take him in the 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:12.120 mid second round. A guy like Marte, even in a 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.000 little bit of a deeper league, he's still coming at 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:18.400 a cheaper cost. I'm worried about him. Athleticism declines as 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:22.640 ages get older. You've seen games played have decreased. If 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.960 you don't consider the COVID year four straight years, I 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:28.280 mean it has gotten less forced since twenty eighteen one 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.480 forty five one eighteen. In that same period of time, 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:36.200 his strike up percentage has risen from sixteen percent in 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.600 twenty nineteen all the way up to nineteen point two 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.280 percent for four straight years. That's not good. Those are 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:44.280 not good warning signs. Sixteen eighteen was solid last year, 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:46.480 but we're getting into this place where we're like, oh, well, 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.720 if Marte could play one forty, he's not. He doesn't, 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.080 and he's coming into the season injured. That should be 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:53.680 one of the biggest warning signs I think for a 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:57.000 lot of these players. But I do think where he's 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:01.080 going it's not it's not out of the it's not crazy. 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:02.520 It's not out of crazy. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:04.560 But you know what, I look ten picks later, Corbyn 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:06.040 Carrol and Brian Reynolds are on the board. 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:07.880 Okay, but where are you saying he's going right now? 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.560 He's going at seventy overall, there's those guys going at 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:13.720 eighty two and eighty three. I'm just saying that's the 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:14.880 consensus right now. 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.080 Yeah, but like with the injury stuff that has kind 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:19.360 of surfaced over the last. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.800 Week, or that might change in the next week or so, right. 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:25.840 That if he's ninety ninety five, he I think he's okay. 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:29.120 But you are taking a player with diminishing skill set 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:31.960 declining as his age goes, and it literally is on 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.480 paper in front of us. So like I'm telling you 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.640 both stories, like I'm cool to take him in the 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.400 nineties because stolen bases if you ignored it. I have 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.920 a draft in tout right now where I really have 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:44.439 ignored stolen bases, and that's not great, But I've just 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.640 had such phenomenal hitters fall to me across the board. 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:49.680 Sure that you might have to make it a little 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.800 bit more of a priority there, but that's not necessarily 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:54.679 the spot where you're going to want to jump in 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.960 and taking, you know, declining at the the declining athleticism 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.760 of an outfielder just because you're doing it on stolen bases. 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:04.400 But it is a Mets, big offensive Mets team. I 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:06.040 think you have to ask yourself like you were about 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:07.640 to do with like Corman Care, like what are the 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:08.880 players that are around him? 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.760 I think you can make causes later. Look, I'm looking 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.400 the average ADPs at seventy one, and he's it's a 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:17.719 seventies too high in NFBC too. Right now, he's at 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.480 seventy eight in NFBC, so I mean a little bit 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:23.160 closer to some of the other But like you look 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:24.880 at some of the other spots, like CBS is all 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:26.839 the way up at sixty four. Let's go to the 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.080 next guy on your list of risky picks, who is it. 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.800 I've got Dylan Ceese, who I feel like I've talked about. 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:34.760 I'm trying to mix Cease up here, but Dylan Ceze 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:38.240 has just got Volatiley. The strikeouts are phenomenal. We love 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:42.880 the strikeouts, but the walk rate is not. And I 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.640 like having the backdrop of being able to to be 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.840 able to like I know, I always have two hundred 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:52.120 plus strikeouts. I think that makes these guys easier to stomach. 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.080 But you had a huge ERA and xtip difference to 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:58.280 to era a three to five x tip. I really 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:01.440 do expect his ERA to jump back up into If 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:03.560 it's three fives. I'm not saying it's not good, but 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:06.720 where you're taking him, especially this range of picture, I'd 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.959 almost put these pitcher names around here. I don't really 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:13.319 want to jump and invest on a guy that if 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.320 you're paying for last year's era, that's not going to happen. 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.120 He's not going to have an under three ERA. He 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.480 may have the strikeouts in there, but I'm a little 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:24.120 bit worried overall about this rotation. The bounce back for 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.480 me is Lucas Gielito. When you're paying really high for 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:30.480 a When I look at this entire rotation outside. I 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.719 throw copek aside. I would rather invest in Lance Lane 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.520 and Gielito bouncing back than I would Dylan Ceese being 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.240 able to repeat what he can do. Nick Pollock was 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.480 on here when I mentioned him as a bus he agreed, 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:43.599 no way, he's I think his quote was, it's a 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.480 laughable where Dylan Ceese is going. So this is a 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.440 very risky pick if you jump in and invest in 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.240 your SPS on this high of a walk rate and 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:53.800 a player that's going to be able to repeat what 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:54.600 he did last year. 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.559 I agree. I think the ADP is a little high 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.520 right now for him, and I like the return you're 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.520 getting on Gilito and Lance Lane later one percent. 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It's not gonna do 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:46.320 it for me, A guy said, chronic back issues, and 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.400 he's only thirty four. And I say oldly because I'm 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:50.319 looking at Verlander and Scherzer and those guys are like 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.520 one hundred and thirty four and they're still out there, 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:54.320 you know, trying to get it done. I mean, Verlander's 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:56.319 coming off as I young, and I play in a 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:57.800 lot of head to head formats, and I think when 0:12:57.840 --> 0:12:59.240 you play in the head to heads, you really got 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.439 to ask yourself this question. If we're already building in 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.920 twenty two starts, is basically what our expectation is. What 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:05.920 if we get a bigger injury? What do we get 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.320 multiple What if we're in a situation here with Kershaw 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:10.720 where it falls off the map, And that's a problem 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.360 for me at his current ADP, which is at one ten. 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.240 If you look around the other pictures going there, it's 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.640 guys we really like Blake Snell, George Kirby, like those 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:22.520 are some of the pictures right back to back there 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.800 where the high upside strikeouts of a guy like Hunter Green. 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:28.800 I understand in season long rot O the appeal of 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:32.319 Clayton Kershaw for you get those twenty something starts, you 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.800 get some really good whip and ra numbers, you get 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:38.160 good strikeout total, everything that you want. But the durability 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.160 factor for me is a top one hundred player, which 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.280 is basically where he is, still just a little too high. 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.760 We'd rather take some of the upside of the Nick 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:47.760 Lodolos of the world at this point in their careers 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.640 because I'm already worried I'm trying to get blood out 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:52.920 of a stone with Clayton Kershaw in those twenty two starts, 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.880 and the more we kind of squeeze and squeeze, I'm 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:57.160 just a little worded at the end of the day, 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.080 like we're gonna get tapped at a certain point with 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.000 Clayton Kershaw, and head to head it worries me more 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.800 than season long Roto. So in season long rot more 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.880 app for that risk. In head to head it's a 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:08.040 risk I just don't want to take. 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.480 Welsh, did you say you squeeze blood out of a stone. 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.280 I do don't think my hands are so strong. I 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.760 have a stone. If I just squeeze it and it bleeds, 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.160 it bleeds blood and then it says, why did you 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:20.480 make me bleed my own blood? 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.640 There's a lot of risky pictures. Kershaw is a little 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:25.840 bit and. 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.400 Icy to me, like I from a stone is a 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.880 real thing. By the way, you're the king of mixing expressions. 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.720 I thought you made it. I thought that was It's 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:36.600 not a welshism. 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.479 That's a real you expect Now are you trying to screw. 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:42.280 Which? By the way, I have a follow up on 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.000 that from Justin Mason for don't let me forget. I 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.680 have the suggested new stat for next week. But let's 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.200 let's continue on about Kershaw. Give me your ten seconds 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:52.600 on Kershaw and then I want to move on to 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:53.120 the next guy. 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.920 Yeah. I think in general Kershaw is where he's going. 0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:58.880 You could look at it as risky. I don't quite 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.720 look at it outside the top one hundred is risky, 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:02.520 but you just know what you're getting an innings. They 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.240 will be good quality innings, but you have to be 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:07.680 comfortable with like one hundred and forty innings is what 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:08.960 you're going to get out of him, because you're not 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:09.760 going to get much more. 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.120 All right, next guy on your list. 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:15.240 Welsh is who So I've got a Dolius Garcia And 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.680 I think this is funny because this guy lived on 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.840 this list last year. But there's something that is just 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.160 standing out to me that I feel like we're being 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.560 lulled into a sense of comfort. We're all like, well, 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.000 it's done it for two years now, we're good. His 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.400 ADP when you look over on Fantasy Pros is eighty 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:34.840 five on the consensus, which is a valuable tool. By 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:38.040 the way, perusing through Fantasy Pros and looking you can 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.480 see ECR and you can also look at consensus rank 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.560 and I find that very valuable. Fifty eight is where 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:47.240 he's going. Here's some outfielders that are going behind him, 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:53.440 taoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Charlie Martes In. There 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.400 my point, listen to those three. What's the difference. 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:56.720 Why? 0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.040 It's because the stolen bases on adulis people feel I 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.240 feel a lot more comfortable. He lowered a strikeout rate 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:05.400 last year. He maintained his batting average, which was good 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.400 but they are still high strikeout rates. There is still 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.440 a really low walk rate. I appreciate that he steals bases, 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.960 projections don't buy the stolen bases continuing. He also looks ginormous, 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.960 by the way, but he always kind of does. He's 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.440 just bigger than he was last year. He's a big guy. 0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:23.440 But I just saw him and Camp. But beside the point, 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.640 I feel a lulled sense of comfort that's going on 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.240 with the dolls, and I don't want to fall for it. 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.080 He is a twenty twenty guy. Fully acknowledge that he 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:34.040 does it again, He'll break everybody. I just don't think 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.400 it's the case. And I listed up three outfielders that 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.040 really I'm going to take over a Doulas Garcia because 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.360 I don't he has no floor as far as contact 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.680 goes for me, with the higher strikeout rates in the 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.320 lower walk rates, and I don't know. I just the 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.160 two fifty battery average does not feel like that is 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.560 going to maintain. I think it's a really really high 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.200 cost and it's built a lot just about stolen bases. 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.240 The next guy on my list is one of Welsh's 0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:59.880 old favorites. Now I'm not sure exactly where he stands 0:16:59.880 --> 0:17:01.360 on this year. But if you listened to the show 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.280 last year, a lot of Byron Buxton talk and Byron 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.200 Buckston reminds me of that that song The Last Dance 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:11.119 by Gloria Gaynor, when I'm bad, I'm oh so bad. 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:15.120 And he was sometimes sometimes he was great. The April 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:19.280 was great to seventy one thousand ops. Then in May 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.280 of Bucks sixty nine batting average and at sixty ten ops. 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.440 Then in June to seventy five batting average with a 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:30.280 thousand ops. Then in July Buck eighty nine back affag. 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.560 You see where I'm going here? Yeah, And then of 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:36.240 course autist hits in September is he is not there 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:40.080 and I'm looking at Buxton. And the thing we used 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:42.400 always say is, well, at least you get the son 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.560 basis with Buckston, except last year we didn't. We only 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.120 got six deals out of him. We got a ton 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.800 of power, twenty in home runs. Nobody don't they expected 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:51.320 the power return in the amount of games, twenty in 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.240 homers in ninety two games. But the thing with Buckston 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.320 is I just don't know who he is. And the 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.200 only thing I do know about him is that he's 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.520 just not there enough for me, and that at the 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.320 end of the day, at the pick he's going, which 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:08.200 is eighty seven. Overall, I struggle talking about those same 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.119 guys around that vein, Brian Reynolds, Cormyn Carrol. I like 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:13.680 those guys more, Gunner, Henderson's a player. I absolutely love 0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:16.520 Dathaniel Low, William Donalds. There's a lot of guys in 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.640 this range between eighty and one hundred that I'm really 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:21.560 high on this year. And Bucks is a player that 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:24.440 every year the expectations are there, and every year it's 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.479 a disappointment. Welsh, where are you this year with Byron 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:28.480 Buckson in twenty three? 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:31.359 I mean, I'm a little indifferent. I'm probably still like 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:33.879 higher than the general sense, but I don't disagree with you. 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:36.479