Speaker 1: Risky business. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody
Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It
Speaker 1: is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia with me today is
Speaker 1: the Welsh who just turned his hat from backwards and forwards,
Speaker 1: because one of our friends who we work with here
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, always says, you want the bill your hat
Speaker 1: facing the direction you want to go in life. That's forward,
Speaker 1: that's right, that's your UK Winn. That's a shout out
Speaker 1: to you. And today's show is about the ten risky
Speaker 1: picks early on that we are just not feeling necessarily
Speaker 1: or maybe we are and we like the risk. We'll
Speaker 1: tell you what those names are and what that risk
Speaker 1: might entail for you and your Fantasy Baseball futures of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. We're also going to talk about some
Speaker 1: early buzz. Our man the Welsh, is out there in
Speaker 1: the trenches of spring training giving us some of the
Speaker 1: early buzz. But we also seen in some of the
Speaker 1: ADPs some guys starting to rise already with some news
Speaker 1: and some different situations unfolding early in camps. So we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about the early spring risers. And those
Speaker 1: that might potentially sink or swim your fantasy team. Before
Speaker 1: we get into all of them, don't forget everybody. Fantasypros
Speaker 1: dot com slash draft Wizard. That's the place to run
Speaker 1: your mock drafts. Get your mock draft on. Start preparing today.
Speaker 1: It's free, it's free, it's fantastic, it's educational, it's it's
Speaker 1: the what you need. It's what you need at the
Speaker 1: end of the day to make sure you go and
Speaker 1: get all your draft situations proper for all your leagues. Again,
Speaker 1: download the app its spectacu or go to fantasypros dot
Speaker 1: com slash draft Wizard. Run them. You can run one
Speaker 1: hundred mock drafts all weekend. Whatever you want to do
Speaker 1: to get prepared, So make sure you start that Welsh.
Speaker 1: Let's start with some of the names here on the
Speaker 1: risky picks. Again, risk is defined as you know, typically
Speaker 1: a player that may or may not be worth the ADP. Now,
Speaker 1: some risk we like because we know what the upside is.
Speaker 1: Some risk we don't. So I want to know what
Speaker 1: this first guy, what do you think about number one
Speaker 1: on your list? Is this a risky player that you
Speaker 1: are into for twenty twenty three or is the risk
Speaker 1: just too much.
Speaker 2: I'm going to be brutally on it that I go
Speaker 2: back and forth pretty much every day on this, and
Speaker 2: the player that I think is literally the riskiest player
Speaker 2: is Fernando Tatis Junior. When you're talking about this.
Speaker 1: He's built for this.
Speaker 2: Why Because he's suspended for the first month it's about
Speaker 2: April twentieth, he's eligible to come back. He also is
Speaker 2: coming off of two shoulder surgeries and he's really kind
Speaker 2: of looked like he's been injury prone. Third, obviously, there
Speaker 2: is the other substance component of why he was suspended
Speaker 2: that we can question, like what role did that ultimately
Speaker 2: take in it? The last thing that gets on it
Speaker 2: as far as the negative goes. Take all of those
Speaker 2: things in a bundle and look at the cost you
Speaker 2: do not get him past the twentieth pick. You are
Speaker 2: paying full price for a player coming off of shoulder surgery,
Speaker 2: suspension for a PD or whatever you know, you want
Speaker 2: to call it ring ringworm medication, and you're taking all
Speaker 2: of that into consideration, and you're paying a top twenty
Speaker 2: overall pick. The problem is, in two thousand and twenty one,
Speaker 2: there wasn't many better fantasy players forty two homers, twenty
Speaker 2: five stolen bases, and projections in general can't come off
Speaker 2: of that because of the player that he is. His
Speaker 2: batting average was great. Bat X has him at two
Speaker 2: point eighty four, which by the way, is the highest
Speaker 2: of any projection system. And I want you to understand
Speaker 2: this first off, the bad X was so critical of
Speaker 2: Fernando Tatist as a rookie. The bad X also, any
Speaker 2: of these projections are meant to be lower. You don't
Speaker 2: see that from this projection system. This is Derek Carties.
Speaker 2: It was voted as the number one singular projection system
Speaker 2: atc is like an aggregate. They were the most accurate
Speaker 2: this year, voted by I believe it was Fantasy pros
Speaker 2: and Derek Carties was like the second or the most
Speaker 2: individual one. To see Derek have Fernando Tatis junior system
Speaker 2: as the number one guy. That is eye opening. So
Speaker 2: if you get thirty five homers, you get twenty stolen bases,
Speaker 2: you almost get ninety ninety with a two eighty four
Speaker 2: batting average. Guess what, You're golden even if it's one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty games. But you have all of those
Speaker 2: other things that are staring at you. Lastly, if you
Speaker 2: consider him a shortstop, it's a deep position in baseball. Luckily,
Speaker 2: he's going to qualified outfield. Looks like he's gonna play
Speaker 2: right field. That's what I saw him playing in one
Speaker 2: of the instructional games before spring training started. So you
Speaker 2: probably end up actually drafting him as an outfielder. But Joe,
Speaker 2: I don't know how you quantify any other player as
Speaker 2: being as risky as Fernando Tatis Junior. It's the biggest
Speaker 2: risk reward I think in fantasy this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but probably the biggest reward for the risk. And
Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, for me,
Speaker 1: Tatis is worth that. It's funny looking at him on
Speaker 1: Fantasy pros next to his name, it gives the little
Speaker 1: abbreviation s US because he's suspended. But you know, my
Speaker 1: daughters like to use the word sus. You know, that's
Speaker 1: what a teenager i'd say, And he is a little sus.
Speaker 1: He's in terms of personality, he's sus in terms of health.
Speaker 1: At times, there's a lot of suss around Fernando Tattis Junior.
Speaker 1: But well, the upside is just so much, you know me,
Speaker 1: it's like I'm ricky, Bobby like I want to be first,
Speaker 1: or Las like I'll go for it all. You know,
Speaker 1: if you're gonna give him to me in the second
Speaker 1: if you're giving him to me in the second round,
Speaker 1: which is where he's going, he is a top five
Speaker 1: potential talent that's not going to happen again next year
Speaker 1: if he has the year that he has, So to me,
Speaker 1: it's the perfect opportunity to go all in. And I agree, like,
Speaker 1: if Bobby Wit is there, you don't need to take
Speaker 1: that risk. But once Bobby wits off the board, maybe
Speaker 1: Pete A. Lowns is off the board, Trouts off the board.
Speaker 1: You're looking at the guys that you feel good about,
Speaker 1: that you know they are, and then there's a guy
Speaker 1: that could change the whole dynamic of your league, and
Speaker 1: Tatis is that guy. So yeah, he's risky, but I
Speaker 1: think that's a risk that I'm willing to take. Starling
Speaker 1: Marte is the guy I want to talk about with you,
Speaker 1: because that's a guy that again I love the player,
Speaker 1: love the power speed combination. The guy himself another guy too,
Speaker 1: not a stranger to Pedis has mentioned in the past
Speaker 1: as well, kind of like Tattis, but he's already kind
Speaker 1: of coming off that groin issue. They're working him very slowly.
Speaker 1: He's a little behind in camp too. That worries me
Speaker 1: at another year older, worries me. Starling Marte is a
Speaker 1: fan fantastic player. He is right now going as the
Speaker 1: seventy first player off the board, and that's still a
Speaker 1: pretty big investment where you worry about the health. You're
Speaker 1: worrying about are you going to get one hundred and
Speaker 1: forty games out of this guy? And that's a tall order.
Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's the case. If you look,
Speaker 1: the last time you played one hundred and forty games
Speaker 1: was twenty eighteen, one forty five. Last two years he
Speaker 1: played one twenty one eighteen. He's not a player that's
Speaker 1: just been on the field very much. So in a
Speaker 1: tough sell, it's a great lineup, it's a good situation.
Speaker 1: At his peak, he is a twenty twenty kind of threat,
Speaker 1: and there's not a lot of those guys floating around,
Speaker 1: So I understand the risk. It's a little bit cheaper
Speaker 1: than the guys were talking about the start here Fernando Tattis,
Speaker 1: But is Marte too risky for you, he is right
Speaker 1: on the border. For me, I think it depends on
Speaker 1: the If it's a shallow league, a more app to
Speaker 1: take that risk. But in a deeper league, I think
Speaker 1: I pass on him for something a little bit less risky.
Speaker 1: I guess yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean I was gonna mention this with Tatis, like
Speaker 2: it's worth the risk, and you slam on it in
Speaker 2: the second round. But the problem is, like in a
Speaker 2: fifteen team Roto's, it's a little bit tough for the
Speaker 2: stomach where you're gonna have to take him in the
Speaker 2: mid second round. A guy like Marte, even in a
Speaker 2: little bit of a deeper league, he's still coming at
Speaker 2: a cheaper cost. I'm worried about him. Athleticism declines as
Speaker 2: ages get older. You've seen games played have decreased. If
Speaker 2: you don't consider the COVID year four straight years, I
Speaker 2: mean it has gotten less forced since twenty eighteen one
Speaker 2: forty five one eighteen. In that same period of time,
Speaker 2: his strike up percentage has risen from sixteen percent in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen all the way up to nineteen point two
Speaker 2: percent for four straight years. That's not good. Those are
Speaker 2: not good warning signs. Sixteen eighteen was solid last year,
Speaker 2: but we're getting into this place where we're like, oh, well,
Speaker 2: if Marte could play one forty, he's not. He doesn't,
Speaker 2: and he's coming into the season injured. That should be
Speaker 2: one of the biggest warning signs I think for a
Speaker 2: lot of these players. But I do think where he's
Speaker 2: going it's not it's not out of the it's not crazy.
Speaker 2: It's not out of crazy.
Speaker 1: But you know what, I look ten picks later, Corbyn
Speaker 1: Carrol and Brian Reynolds are on the board.
Speaker 2: Okay, but where are you saying he's going right now?
Speaker 1: He's going at seventy overall, there's those guys going at
Speaker 1: eighty two and eighty three. I'm just saying that's the
Speaker 1: consensus right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like with the injury stuff that has kind
Speaker 2: of surfaced over the last.
Speaker 1: Week, or that might change in the next week or so, right.
Speaker 2: That if he's ninety ninety five, he I think he's okay.
Speaker 2: But you are taking a player with diminishing skill set
Speaker 2: declining as his age goes, and it literally is on
Speaker 2: paper in front of us. So like I'm telling you
Speaker 2: both stories, like I'm cool to take him in the
Speaker 2: nineties because stolen bases if you ignored it. I have
Speaker 2: a draft in tout right now where I really have
Speaker 2: ignored stolen bases, and that's not great, But I've just
Speaker 2: had such phenomenal hitters fall to me across the board.
Speaker 2: Sure that you might have to make it a little
Speaker 2: bit more of a priority there, but that's not necessarily
Speaker 2: the spot where you're going to want to jump in
Speaker 2: and taking, you know, declining at the the declining athleticism
Speaker 2: of an outfielder just because you're doing it on stolen bases.
Speaker 2: But it is a Mets, big offensive Mets team. I
Speaker 2: think you have to ask yourself like you were about
Speaker 2: to do with like Corman Care, like what are the
Speaker 2: players that are around him?
Speaker 1: I think you can make causes later. Look, I'm looking
Speaker 1: the average ADPs at seventy one, and he's it's a
Speaker 1: seventies too high in NFBC too. Right now, he's at
Speaker 1: seventy eight in NFBC, so I mean a little bit
Speaker 1: closer to some of the other But like you look
Speaker 1: at some of the other spots, like CBS is all
Speaker 1: the way up at sixty four. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: next guy on your list of risky picks, who is it.
Speaker 2: I've got Dylan Ceese, who I feel like I've talked about.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to mix Cease up here, but Dylan Ceze
Speaker 2: has just got Volatiley. The strikeouts are phenomenal. We love
Speaker 2: the strikeouts, but the walk rate is not. And I
Speaker 2: like having the backdrop of being able to to be
Speaker 2: able to like I know, I always have two hundred
Speaker 2: plus strikeouts. I think that makes these guys easier to stomach.
Speaker 2: But you had a huge ERA and xtip difference to
Speaker 2: to era a three to five x tip. I really
Speaker 2: do expect his ERA to jump back up into If
Speaker 2: it's three fives. I'm not saying it's not good, but
Speaker 2: where you're taking him, especially this range of picture, I'd
Speaker 2: almost put these pitcher names around here. I don't really
Speaker 2: want to jump and invest on a guy that if
Speaker 2: you're paying for last year's era, that's not going to happen.
Speaker 2: He's not going to have an under three ERA. He
Speaker 2: may have the strikeouts in there, but I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit worried overall about this rotation. The bounce back for
Speaker 2: me is Lucas Gielito. When you're paying really high for
Speaker 2: a When I look at this entire rotation outside. I
Speaker 2: throw copek aside. I would rather invest in Lance Lane
Speaker 2: and Gielito bouncing back than I would Dylan Ceese being
Speaker 2: able to repeat what he can do. Nick Pollock was
Speaker 2: on here when I mentioned him as a bus he agreed,
Speaker 2: no way, he's I think his quote was, it's a
Speaker 2: laughable where Dylan Ceese is going. So this is a
Speaker 2: very risky pick if you jump in and invest in
Speaker 2: your SPS on this high of a walk rate and
Speaker 2: a player that's going to be able to repeat what
Speaker 2: he did last year.
Speaker 1: I agree. I think the ADP is a little high
Speaker 1: right now for him, and I like the return you're
Speaker 1: getting on Gilito and Lance Lane later one percent. Let's
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Speaker 1: Next guy on my list is Clayton Kershaw. Back to
Speaker 1: back seasons of twenty two starts. It's not gonna do
Speaker 1: it for me, A guy said, chronic back issues, and
Speaker 1: he's only thirty four. And I say oldly because I'm
Speaker 1: looking at Verlander and Scherzer and those guys are like
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four and they're still out there,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to get it done. I mean, Verlander's
Speaker 1: coming off as I young, and I play in a
Speaker 1: lot of head to head formats, and I think when
Speaker 1: you play in the head to heads, you really got
Speaker 1: to ask yourself this question. If we're already building in
Speaker 1: twenty two starts, is basically what our expectation is. What
Speaker 1: if we get a bigger injury? What do we get
Speaker 1: multiple What if we're in a situation here with Kershaw
Speaker 1: where it falls off the map, And that's a problem
Speaker 1: for me at his current ADP, which is at one ten.
Speaker 1: If you look around the other pictures going there, it's
Speaker 1: guys we really like Blake Snell, George Kirby, like those
Speaker 1: are some of the pictures right back to back there
Speaker 1: where the high upside strikeouts of a guy like Hunter Green.
Speaker 1: I understand in season long rot O the appeal of
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw for you get those twenty something starts, you
Speaker 1: get some really good whip and ra numbers, you get
Speaker 1: good strikeout total, everything that you want. But the durability
Speaker 1: factor for me is a top one hundred player, which
Speaker 1: is basically where he is, still just a little too high.
Speaker 1: We'd rather take some of the upside of the Nick
Speaker 1: Lodolos of the world at this point in their careers
Speaker 1: because I'm already worried I'm trying to get blood out
Speaker 1: of a stone with Clayton Kershaw in those twenty two starts,
Speaker 1: and the more we kind of squeeze and squeeze, I'm
Speaker 1: just a little worded at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: like we're gonna get tapped at a certain point with
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw, and head to head it worries me more
Speaker 1: than season long Roto. So in season long rot more
Speaker 1: app for that risk. In head to head it's a
Speaker 1: risk I just don't want to take.
Speaker 2: Welsh, did you say you squeeze blood out of a stone.
Speaker 1: I do don't think my hands are so strong. I
Speaker 1: have a stone. If I just squeeze it and it bleeds,
Speaker 1: it bleeds blood and then it says, why did you
Speaker 1: make me bleed my own blood?
Speaker 2: There's a lot of risky pictures. Kershaw is a little
Speaker 2: bit and.
Speaker 1: Icy to me, like I from a stone is a
Speaker 1: real thing. By the way, you're the king of mixing expressions.
Speaker 1: I thought you made it. I thought that was It's
Speaker 1: not a welshism.
Speaker 2: That's a real you expect Now are you trying to screw.
Speaker 1: Which? By the way, I have a follow up on
Speaker 1: that from Justin Mason for don't let me forget. I
Speaker 1: have the suggested new stat for next week. But let's
Speaker 1: let's continue on about Kershaw. Give me your ten seconds
Speaker 1: on Kershaw and then I want to move on to
Speaker 1: the next guy.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think in general Kershaw is where he's going.
Speaker 2: You could look at it as risky. I don't quite
Speaker 2: look at it outside the top one hundred is risky,
Speaker 2: but you just know what you're getting an innings. They
Speaker 2: will be good quality innings, but you have to be
Speaker 2: comfortable with like one hundred and forty innings is what
Speaker 2: you're going to get out of him, because you're not
Speaker 2: going to get much more.
Speaker 1: All right, next guy on your list.
Speaker 2: Welsh is who So I've got a Dolius Garcia And
Speaker 2: I think this is funny because this guy lived on
Speaker 2: this list last year. But there's something that is just
Speaker 2: standing out to me that I feel like we're being
Speaker 2: lulled into a sense of comfort. We're all like, well,
Speaker 2: it's done it for two years now, we're good. His
Speaker 2: ADP when you look over on Fantasy Pros is eighty
Speaker 2: five on the consensus, which is a valuable tool. By
Speaker 2: the way, perusing through Fantasy Pros and looking you can
Speaker 2: see ECR and you can also look at consensus rank
Speaker 2: and I find that very valuable. Fifty eight is where
Speaker 2: he's going. Here's some outfielders that are going behind him,
Speaker 2: taoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Charlie Martes In. There
Speaker 2: my point, listen to those three. What's the difference.
Speaker 1: Why?
Speaker 2: It's because the stolen bases on adulis people feel I
Speaker 2: feel a lot more comfortable. He lowered a strikeout rate
Speaker 2: last year. He maintained his batting average, which was good
Speaker 2: but they are still high strikeout rates. There is still
Speaker 2: a really low walk rate. I appreciate that he steals bases,
Speaker 2: projections don't buy the stolen bases continuing. He also looks ginormous,
Speaker 2: by the way, but he always kind of does. He's
Speaker 2: just bigger than he was last year. He's a big guy.
Speaker 2: But I just saw him and Camp. But beside the point,
Speaker 2: I feel a lulled sense of comfort that's going on
Speaker 2: with the dolls, and I don't want to fall for it.
Speaker 2: He is a twenty twenty guy. Fully acknowledge that he
Speaker 2: does it again, He'll break everybody. I just don't think
Speaker 2: it's the case. And I listed up three outfielders that
Speaker 2: really I'm going to take over a Doulas Garcia because
Speaker 2: I don't he has no floor as far as contact
Speaker 2: goes for me, with the higher strikeout rates in the
Speaker 2: lower walk rates, and I don't know. I just the
Speaker 2: two fifty battery average does not feel like that is
Speaker 2: going to maintain. I think it's a really really high
Speaker 2: cost and it's built a lot just about stolen bases.
Speaker 1: The next guy on my list is one of Welsh's
Speaker 1: old favorites. Now I'm not sure exactly where he stands
Speaker 1: on this year. But if you listened to the show
Speaker 1: last year, a lot of Byron Buxton talk and Byron
Speaker 1: Buckston reminds me of that that song The Last Dance
Speaker 1: by Gloria Gaynor, when I'm bad, I'm oh so bad.
Speaker 1: And he was sometimes sometimes he was great. The April
Speaker 1: was great to seventy one thousand ops. Then in May
Speaker 1: of Bucks sixty nine batting average and at sixty ten ops.
Speaker 1: Then in June to seventy five batting average with a
Speaker 1: thousand ops. Then in July Buck eighty nine back affag.
Speaker 1: You see where I'm going here? Yeah, And then of
Speaker 1: course autist hits in September is he is not there
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at Buxton. And the thing we used
Speaker 1: always say is, well, at least you get the son
Speaker 1: basis with Buckston, except last year we didn't. We only
Speaker 1: got six deals out of him. We got a ton
Speaker 1: of power, twenty in home runs. Nobody don't they expected
Speaker 1: the power return in the amount of games, twenty in
Speaker 1: homers in ninety two games. But the thing with Buckston
Speaker 1: is I just don't know who he is. And the
Speaker 1: only thing I do know about him is that he's
Speaker 1: just not there enough for me, and that at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, at the pick he's going, which
Speaker 1: is eighty seven. Overall, I struggle talking about those same
Speaker 1: guys around that vein, Brian Reynolds, Cormyn Carrol. I like
Speaker 1: those guys more, Gunner, Henderson's a player. I absolutely love
Speaker 1: Dathaniel Low, William Donalds. There's a lot of guys in
Speaker 1: this range between eighty and one hundred that I'm really
Speaker 1: high on this year. And Bucks is a player that
Speaker 1: every year the expectations are there, and every year it's
Speaker 1: a disappointment. Welsh, where are you this year with Byron
Speaker 1: Buckson in twenty three?
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a little indifferent. I'm probably still like
Speaker 2: higher than the general sense, but I don't disagree with you.
Speaker 2: When I get into the eighties, it's not quite bust
Speaker 2: in time for me, so I think I've missed out
Speaker 2: a lot of opportunities in it. The thing I would
Speaker 2: argue is like the batting average did stink, sure, but
Speaker 2: even when the batting average stunk, he had a career
Speaker 2: high in homers and he still stoles still six bases
Speaker 2: in ninety games. If you were just to extrapolate for
Speaker 2: a little bit. Even if he continued at his piss
Speaker 2: poor batting average of two twenty four, which by the way,
Speaker 2: was paired with a career a second career low in
Speaker 2: babbit only the I think third time overall that esp
Speaker 2: actually the third that he's ever hit under a three
Speaker 2: hundred on his babbit. He is a career three to
Speaker 2: zero five babbit. So this is over sixty points lower
Speaker 2: and his normal babbit. He's still hit twenty eight homers
Speaker 2: with six dolen bases. Extrapolate over in those ninety games
Speaker 2: you're going to add on let's just say some word
Speaker 2: crazy world where he played one hundred and fifty, he
Speaker 2: would have been a forty ten guy last year. That's
Speaker 2: where he would have looked at it. But his strikeout
Speaker 2: rates absurd, his contact went through the roof. I agree,
Speaker 2: I kind of don't know exactly who he is. The
Speaker 2: only thing that I wish would stop with Byron Buckston
Speaker 2: is people pretending like he's not incredible, because he is incredible.
Speaker 2: Look what he did in the short amount of time
Speaker 2: on a really bad batting average. He is an incredible
Speaker 2: fantasy player when he's out there, So they don't pretend
Speaker 2: like he's not, but he is broken all the time,
Speaker 2: and that's what stinks. And I don't blame anybody for
Speaker 2: moving off of him because I'm kind of doing the
Speaker 2: same thing. I don't go on it, but if he
Speaker 2: plays one hundred and thirty games, all of you are
Speaker 2: going to miss out on probably what is going to
Speaker 2: be a first round talent. It's just he ain't gonna
Speaker 2: do it. He ain't gonna play one hundred and thirty games.
Speaker 1: My knock on him is always the same thing it
Speaker 1: was when he was I think taking second overall the
Speaker 1: year in the draft. I said to me, Byron Buckson
Speaker 1: was a better athlete than a baseball player. That was
Speaker 1: always my knock on him. And I know he missed
Speaker 1: a lot of developmental time with a lot of injuries.
Speaker 1: So it's not like he got to the major leagues
Speaker 1: and the injuries were problems. The injuries were a problem
Speaker 1: in the minor leagues. He had minor league injuries. He
Speaker 1: missed time, He missed development time. That was our big
Speaker 1: concern with him, and that is incredible. Raw athleticism has
Speaker 1: always carried him. But eventually, now we're getting to a
Speaker 1: point where it's just a tough investment for me. I'm
Speaker 1: with you, like, if you get a bud, get a
Speaker 1: discount on him. I'm listening, but it's definitely.
Speaker 2: RELEGI you're listening. I'm drafting. The problem is fine, would
Speaker 2: you say it was eighty seven?
Speaker 1: Eighty seven?
Speaker 2: I don't even know if I can pull the trigger
Speaker 2: on that. I had to get a discount to do it.
Speaker 2: You have to get a discount to consent. And that's
Speaker 2: to make Buckston. He's probably I think like Tatis from
Speaker 2: the Hole is kind of like the number one guy.
Speaker 2: This is probably number three if we're not counting the
Speaker 2: blatantly obvious Jacob de Groz.
Speaker 1: Sure, all right, next guy on your Liz Welsh, is.
Speaker 2: Who Tim Anderson? Now, Tim Anderson's skill sets are really
Speaker 2: not to be debated, you know. Still thirteen bases last
Speaker 2: year played, had six homers, hit three to zero one.
Speaker 2: That is four straight seasons of a thirty three hundred
Speaker 2: batting average or better. He's lowered his strikeout rate. It
Speaker 2: was actually the lowest of his career this past year,
Speaker 2: which was awesome. Had fifty runs, but seventy nine games.
Speaker 2: Fifty runs in seventy nine games is the problem because
Speaker 2: had one hundred and twenty three games a year before that,
Speaker 2: forty nine in the COVID year still missed time one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three. He's played one hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: games once in his career. So the same thing that
Speaker 2: we penalized Viral Buxton about Tim Anderson is not that
Speaker 2: much different. He does maybe he plays a few more games.
Speaker 2: He doesn't play full seasons, he doesn't come close to
Speaker 2: playing full seasons, and he doesn't come close to living
Speaker 2: up to his expectations. We keep continuously chasing his twenty
Speaker 2: twenty season in twenty eighteen. We don't get there because
Speaker 2: he doesn't play the games. He has a better underlying
Speaker 2: safety net because he doesn't strike out at the same rate,
Speaker 2: But the guy also doesn't walk. So I also kind
Speaker 2: of don't want to hear about why Tim Anderson is
Speaker 2: such a smashing deal to everybody, and Byron Buckson is
Speaker 2: the worst pick you can possibly have because he also
Speaker 2: doesn't play the games. If he did and he was
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty guy, he's an insane deal, and I'm
Speaker 2: cool with it. I'm cool with taking Tim Anderson under that, guys,
Speaker 2: but you do need to know you're not gonna get
Speaker 2: a full season of games because it never happens. So
Speaker 2: he's very risky if you pass up all those incredible
Speaker 2: shortstops because you're telling yourself, Oh, I can get Tim Anderson.
Speaker 2: He's awesome. Yeah, he is for one hundred and ten games.
Speaker 1: Before I get to the shortstop on my list. I
Speaker 1: want to remind everybody if you're watching on our YouTube channel,
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Speaker 1: It's where it's at. Let's get to the short slop
Speaker 1: on my list. It's Carlos Korea. Now, Korea had a
Speaker 1: pretty good season. Talk about a guy who's limited to
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty games every year, you kind of
Speaker 1: have that expectation with him, but he was good last year.
Speaker 1: The fact that not one but two organizations bucked at
Speaker 1: giving him a long term contract. Now, look, I understand
Speaker 1: this is redraft we're talking about here. This is not
Speaker 1: dynasty or keeper leak scenarios. But what if it's even
Speaker 1: worse than we think Welsh Like, what if there's just
Speaker 1: something here that to me that these two organizations saw
Speaker 1: what they saw reacted the way they did, It tells
Speaker 1: me there's even more inherent risk in Carl's Korea than
Speaker 1: we might realize. He's going at number one hundred overall,
Speaker 1: still a place where the risk is understandable. You can
Speaker 1: look at it and say, Okay, I'm gonna go ahead
Speaker 1: and take this risk. I'm okay with it. But shortstop
Speaker 1: is pretty deep. Shortstop has I think ways you can
Speaker 1: go about it. Carlos Correa is going right after Willia Damas,
Speaker 1: He's going right before Jeremy Pania. I'med Rosario, like, there's
Speaker 1: some guys out there you can still kind of get
Speaker 1: along with. I mean, Tim Anderson has fallen into a
Speaker 1: lot of drafts too, I've seen recently. So there's definitely
Speaker 1: this risky pile of shortstops, and I'm just a little
Speaker 1: concern that maybe Carlos Korea's long term health might be
Speaker 1: more of a short term risk than we realize, and
Speaker 1: people aren't thinking enough like that. I'm not saying he
Speaker 1: can't take him. I'm just saying, if you do, you
Speaker 1: better have a plan. What do you think about Korea?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. The only thing is like he's
Speaker 2: played what is close to three full seasons. He played
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty six to six games this past year,
Speaker 2: which isn't like a full but it's better than Tim Anderson.
Speaker 1: One hundred and forty eight the year before, no doubt.
Speaker 2: Which is still close to a full season, and fifty
Speaker 2: eight in the COVID year. I mean that's three straight years.
Speaker 1: His bomb was also a guy pushing for a contract
Speaker 1: in those years. That's not for you, But I don't.
Speaker 2: Think you just you get your money and you're just like,
Speaker 2: all right, cool, let's break the ankle. You know it's
Speaker 2: gonna lik relegate.
Speaker 1: But there's one thing to push through, and then the players,
Speaker 1: when they get the long term guaranteed money, the pushing
Speaker 1: all of a sudden stops. Well.
Speaker 2: One of his biggest problem is like pushing through the production.
Speaker 1: He literally has like.
Speaker 2: Never lived up to his expectations.
Speaker 1: Like he has.
Speaker 2: We're always like, oh, hitting, he can't. He hasn't stolen
Speaker 2: a base for three years. That's out the window. The
Speaker 2: run totals he had one year. Funny enough, you could
Speaker 2: take the COVID year and twenty twenty two and it's
Speaker 2: still not the amount of runs he scored in twenty
Speaker 2: twel that was the outlier out there. So like, he
Speaker 2: just doesn't live up to expectations. He has this crazy
Speaker 2: lingering ankle thing that we're staring at, that's in our face.
Speaker 2: I do think that makes him risky. But here's my question.
Speaker 2: Ninety one ADP is Tim Anderson one hundred is Carlos Korea.
Speaker 2: Do you think Carlos who is riskier to you? Do
Speaker 2: you think Carlos Korea is so much safer than Tim
Speaker 2: Anderson or risky?
Speaker 1: No, I think Korea is risk here. I really do.
Speaker 2: I like Anders Why because because but Anderson plays less
Speaker 2: games without USh.
Speaker 1: He's going to give you the stolen bases, and he's
Speaker 1: gonna give me, I know, the batting average. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: lock it. He gives you those two things that I
Speaker 1: think are a little harder to find, which is batting
Speaker 1: average and solen bases, whereas Korea that you're not getting
Speaker 1: any steals. You know that that's never coming. And I'll
Speaker 1: be the first to admit, like I thought, Carlos Correa
Speaker 1: is going to be a franchise type player and it
Speaker 1: just never materialized. Maybe his injuries, maybe just was overrated.
Speaker 1: But I remember the first time I saw him when
Speaker 1: he was like seventeen eighteen years old, and I thought,
Speaker 1: my god, this guy could be the next a Rod
Speaker 1: And he just never never developed in the same way.
Speaker 1: And I don't think he grew the same way either.
Speaker 1: I think he looked at the frame and you thought
Speaker 1: he was going to develop in a different way, and
Speaker 1: he never did, and I think maybe that's also part
Speaker 1: of the equation. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: it's a player that again the risk for me is
Speaker 1: not great.
Speaker 2: I think they're as risky as you can get. And
Speaker 2: this is such a deep position, and we fall into
Speaker 2: this sometimes that I think it's a crutch where you
Speaker 2: know it's so deep, I can get it later, I
Speaker 2: can get one of those guys. I think you put
Speaker 2: yourself in a massive amount of risk. I think Tim
Speaker 2: Anderson is as risky as Carlos Korea for different reasons.
Speaker 2: Anderson has a floor. Maybe statistically, Correa is gonna play
Speaker 2: more games. That's just a fact because that's what he does.
Speaker 1: Want to wonder Franco and Andre Semenez a.
Speaker 2: Better short stop, that's my whole point. Take a better
Speaker 2: shortstop than all of these losers.
Speaker 1: Please, I agree. I say, let's get to the last
Speaker 1: guy on your lovingly it's the lovingly loser kind of situation. Here,
Speaker 1: give me the last guy on your list. Welsh and
Speaker 1: I love this one.
Speaker 2: Tyler O'Neill. Tyler O'Neill, I cannot wrap my head around.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to even try guys projections have wild numbers.
Speaker 2: People love him. He had a wardier last year ninety
Speaker 2: six games, fourteen fourteen homers, fourteen sol base is okay.
Speaker 2: He hit two twenty eight. Strikeout rate was better than
Speaker 2: the previous year, but still relatively bad. Babbit was low,
Speaker 2: so you could see that kind of bouncing back up,
Speaker 2: but a hard hit tanked. It went to forty three
Speaker 2: percent from fifty two percent. His barrel rate dropped six percent,
Speaker 2: his launch angle went down. I look at all of
Speaker 2: that stuff and I go, okay, Like he's a good
Speaker 2: fantasy player, but he's becoming this perennial buyback bad X
Speaker 2: as him at twenty six homers, fifteen stolen bases, and
Speaker 2: I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how
Speaker 2: comfortable people are drafting him, thinking we're just back, We're
Speaker 2: just getting this completely back. And I know it's annoying
Speaker 2: to this point, but I would rather go and take
Speaker 2: my chances with large newbar than this. I think there's
Speaker 2: a lot of strikeout volatility. The batting average worried me.
Speaker 2: In general. He's obviously a physical freak and a monster
Speaker 2: and can absolutely rocket balls out of there. I've just
Speaker 2: never been a big Tyler on and it's coming off
Speaker 2: of a really bad year. I think he is plenty risky,
Speaker 2: though his cost isn't crazy, but it's still one oh two.
Speaker 2: It's just after a top one hundred, and that doesn't
Speaker 2: process in my brain why I would take a one
Speaker 2: hundred overall pick for Tyler O'Neill. On the bounce back,
Speaker 2: I'd say, it's a big no, thank you. It's amazing
Speaker 2: seeing him next to Byron Buxton. I might be crazy.
Speaker 2: I'll take Byron Buxton, Toots, take Tyler O'Neill.
Speaker 1: Please, that's not even close, not even close for me.
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. So there we go. We
Speaker 1: found the losers we love. There we go, all right,
Speaker 1: no spoiler alert here. It's you know, same old, same old,
Speaker 1: the twenty sixth player overall, the number five pitcher overall,
Speaker 1: Jacob deGrom. I'm not doing it. He is the riskiest
Speaker 1: pick in Fantasy baseball, and I'm somebody who's fading to
Speaker 1: the top of the board at pitching anyway, because I
Speaker 1: want that offense this year. I want to make sure
Speaker 1: I lock those guys in. And as I've said many
Speaker 1: times on the show, pitchers ten through thirty. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of ace material there and you don't get that
Speaker 1: every so, whether it's some of the guys that are
Speaker 1: a little undervalued because of age, where there guys that
Speaker 1: are just you know, like Joe Musco who performed like
Speaker 1: an age we we talking about Joe Muscove was nlsy
Speaker 1: young for the first four months of the year. Okay,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys out there that you can
Speaker 1: live with in your rotation and get a couple of
Speaker 1: them and kind of pound that ten to thirty range
Speaker 1: and get two or three guys out of there. I'm
Speaker 1: not doing it with Jacob de Gram. I'm not doing it.
Speaker 1: And you know what I thought of today? This was
Speaker 1: a new wrinkles, like how can I beat this drum
Speaker 1: a different way? And here it is wels Jacob de Gram. Arguably,
Speaker 1: I think you would agree when he is right, is
Speaker 1: the best picture in baseball.
Speaker 2: Correct, It's without question?
Speaker 1: Why did nobody else want him but the Texas Rangers?
Speaker 2: Well, how do you know that? I mean, the Texas
Speaker 2: Rangers offered a tank a tank of money, So.
Speaker 1: What do you they offered a tank of money? But
Speaker 1: did you hear I didn't hear one buzz about anybody
Speaker 1: else kicking the tires on Jacob de Gram. Significant offers
Speaker 1: being made. The Mets made offer, there's an underwhelming offer.
Speaker 1: It was a market value offer because they know what
Speaker 1: they're getting into with him. But only the Texas Rangers
Speaker 1: who need to overpay in order to get guys there,
Speaker 1: and Jacob de Gram certainly was not going to turn
Speaker 1: that money down. But where were the Yankees, Where were
Speaker 1: the Dodgers? Where were Houston? Where? I mean Houston Astro
Speaker 1: is going to use the starting pitcher with Justin Verlander
Speaker 1: leaving right. None of those teams stepped up to have
Speaker 1: conversations with Jacob de Gram. I think that's a huge
Speaker 1: red flag that people should recognize and realize. It's not
Speaker 1: that he can't be good, it's that that you're asking
Speaker 1: that adp for him to be thirty starts good and
Speaker 1: I can't get there, Welsh, I just can't do it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't like where he is now. The
Speaker 2: camp stuff has bothered me. It really has, because I've
Speaker 2: watched his demeanor, like like walking around and his interactions
Speaker 2: and also him not doing anything. He just like walks around.
Speaker 2: He's never doing anything he threw. I believe it was
Speaker 2: on Thursday he threw like thirteen pitches in a full
Speaker 2: bullpen session, which I is a positive by the way,
Speaker 2: all fastballs. He had done a couple of light toss
Speaker 2: before that, and then he's expected maybe later next week
Speaker 2: or in to this week, four or five days that
Speaker 2: maybe he's going to start doing like a more intense
Speaker 2: bullpen session and then getting into games. I think he's
Speaker 2: gonna kind of buck some of the concerns that have
Speaker 2: been brewing. But I just haven't liked it in general.
Speaker 2: And that's not a picture you pay like the third
Speaker 2: overall sp four, you should pay quite a lower bit
Speaker 2: for it. I'm still in Jacob de Gram and I'll
Speaker 2: take I mean, if he's five here, I think it's
Speaker 2: probably closer to eight or nine. That's where it would
Speaker 2: really be comfortable. And you are right, you know the
Speaker 2: Tatis thing. He's the highest capital risk of any player
Speaker 2: that you have to take. But Jacob de Gram is
Speaker 2: probably the riskiest because if you spend a really really
Speaker 2: high piece on him and he gets hurt like he does,
Speaker 2: it's gonna set you back. The problem is is he
Speaker 2: just is the best picture in all the baseball and
Speaker 2: he could literally win you a half of a year
Speaker 2: and he could you know, return your stats in rodo
Speaker 2: or he could set you set you off in a
Speaker 2: head to head if he earlies misses time. But you
Speaker 2: just have no idea.
Speaker 1: You have no idea what you do Where you take
Speaker 1: de Grom when he bottoms out, you're missing on offense too,
Speaker 1: and then you're busing on pitching. Also, I mean, like
Speaker 1: the like the big pitch completely wrong.
Speaker 2: Then that's like the big pitching argument too. Right now
Speaker 2: is like you have really early high investment in pitching,
Speaker 2: you're just passing up like really elite elite hitters. And
Speaker 2: that's I think really tough to do because of the
Speaker 2: great pitch. And we've talked about like a ton of
Speaker 2: the names like the George Kirby's and the Hunter Greens
Speaker 2: and the Musgroves and stuff. You can get those guys later.
Speaker 2: I think it's really hard to palot like why you
Speaker 2: would take a guy like Jacob Gram with all the risk.
Speaker 2: And I'm acknowledging that and I'm like the Jacob de
Speaker 2: Gram apologist, so I totally get it.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about our early spring training adp risers.
Speaker 1: I figured what we do is look at the consensus
Speaker 1: ADP and then look at some of the guys where
Speaker 1: they're going in NFBC, because the NFBC drafts are very serious,
Speaker 1: and those are good indicators of where trends are going
Speaker 1: because those leagues have a lot of money invested in them.
Speaker 1: So the first one for me is Josh Hater. Fifty
Speaker 1: three is the consensus ADP for him. NFBC is forty one.
Speaker 1: So those closers tend to get bumped up in those formats,
Speaker 1: closers and catchers, and NFBC you'll see a little higher
Speaker 1: ADP two speaking, but the Hater one, obviously people were
Speaker 1: just buying into what they saw when he went to
Speaker 1: San Diego and getting the ship right. Corbyn Carroll one
Speaker 1: of our mascots. He might be this year's mascot on
Speaker 1: the show. He might be eighty two in consensus seventy
Speaker 1: in NFBC. So that is a big jump here at
Speaker 1: a twelve spot jump for the NFBC people. They're telling
Speaker 1: you they're being aggressive on this player. That's a good thing.
Speaker 1: Now he's a value in early drafts, but that might
Speaker 1: not last very long. So as we get closer and
Speaker 1: closer to your draft days, keep an eye and be
Speaker 1: ready to pay the premium. And then Jonathan India, people
Speaker 1: are starting to get a little forgiveness on Justin Mason
Speaker 1: last week in the draft. Hello forgiveness for Jonathan India.
Speaker 1: He drafted him. One ninety one is the consensus ADP
Speaker 1: one seventy eight is the NFBC one. So people are
Speaker 1: starting to look at Jonathan India starting to get out
Speaker 1: of the tunnel vision of last year and say, Okay,
Speaker 1: this was a player who was a high prospect, had
Speaker 1: a very good rookie campaign last year. Nothing went right
Speaker 1: for him, and they're starting to buy back in Now
Speaker 1: that's one that I think has risk, ironically, but Corbyn, Carrol,
Speaker 1: Josh Hater, those are two guys you can see the
Speaker 1: ADP starting to rise, So get ready to spend because
Speaker 1: that's not going away anytime soon. And then India is
Speaker 1: a player that you have to ask yourself, do I
Speaker 1: want to spend on this player when he goes past
Speaker 1: that one to seventy ish range that becomes more of
Speaker 1: a risk. Wells, who were three guys that you've seen
Speaker 1: starting to roll up in ADP early on?
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are low. These are a little bit lower numerically,
Speaker 2: but there's also been some actually like string training buzz
Speaker 2: that is going to push them up. I sorted this
Speaker 2: also by NFBC Draft Champions from February first on. Compared
Speaker 2: to the Fantasy Pros consensus, oneal Cruz has gone up
Speaker 2: a couple spots seventy three on Fantasy Pros, seventy one
Speaker 2: on NFBC. I know that doesn't seem like a lot,
Speaker 2: but that church stop position is so deep. Oneal Cruz
Speaker 2: simply going out in spring training and talking about not
Speaker 2: only does he want to be a thirty thirty guy,
Speaker 2: but he is setting goals to try to be a
Speaker 2: forty to forty player, And I think significantly that just
Speaker 2: jumps in all of our minds. Him simply saying that
Speaker 2: just makes us go into a frenzy and he will
Speaker 2: start going up, and I think it's warranted. I want
Speaker 2: oneo Cruz. I have him higher than this. I would
Speaker 2: hate to see him go too crazy. But after Corey
Speaker 2: Seger goes off the board, I'm looking on O'nillkruz because
Speaker 2: of the insane stats. He has number two Gunner Henderson
Speaker 2: ninety three on Fantasy Pro Since February first, he's jumped
Speaker 2: up to ninety on NFBC. A big reason also with
Speaker 2: that is kind of the same Korby Carrol stuff. There's
Speaker 2: a lot of rookie excitement in there, but position eligibility.
Speaker 2: Almost everybody agrees on this one statement that Gunner Henderson
Speaker 2: ends the tier of comfortable third basement, and that is
Speaker 2: only going to make a player go up, especially as
Speaker 2: he gets into games and starts to roll. So you're
Speaker 2: slowly starting.
Speaker 1: To see this.
Speaker 2: It will be much bigger soon. And then the final
Speaker 2: one is Joe Ryan one forty five on Fantasy pros.
Speaker 2: He's jumped up to one forty on NFBC. That's relatively significant,
Speaker 2: and he talked about adding a new pitch. There's a
Speaker 2: couple of good articles out there. I believe Alex Fast
Speaker 2: was covering him. New pitch alert tends to always get
Speaker 2: a pitcher moving up, but Joe Ryan is one of
Speaker 2: the few that's at a really low cost and has
Speaker 2: a really good floor, and people are jumping on Joe Ryan,
Speaker 2: Gunner Henderson on'el Cruz some spring training adp risers that
Speaker 2: are only going to increase, and we're seeing it at
Speaker 2: least from February first on over on NFBC and.
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan for me, well, she's one of those guys.
Speaker 1: I've already put draft capital in. I've got it in
Speaker 1: my keeper leagues too, So keep an eye who else
Speaker 1: is right. That cost is not going to stay cheap
Speaker 1: much longer. So those are your risky guys, your early
Speaker 1: adp risers. Again, drop your comments below in the YouTube.
Speaker 1: We want to know from you who some of your
Speaker 1: risky picks are that you love and you hate, love it.
Speaker 1: You want to call them losers, Go ahead, do it.
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Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll
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