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Speaker 1: Risky business. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It

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Speaker 1: is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia with me today is

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Speaker 1: the Welsh who just turned his hat from backwards and forwards,

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Speaker 1: because one of our friends who we work with here

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, always says, you want the bill your hat

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Speaker 1: facing the direction you want to go in life. That's forward,

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Speaker 1: that's right, that's your UK Winn. That's a shout out

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Speaker 1: to you. And today's show is about the ten risky

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Speaker 1: picks early on that we are just not feeling necessarily

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Speaker 1: or maybe we are and we like the risk. We'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what those names are and what that risk

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Speaker 1: might entail for you and your Fantasy Baseball futures of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. We're also going to talk about some

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Speaker 1: early buzz. Our man the Welsh, is out there in

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Speaker 1: the trenches of spring training giving us some of the

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Speaker 1: early buzz. But we also seen in some of the

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Speaker 1: ADPs some guys starting to rise already with some news

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Speaker 1: and some different situations unfolding early in camps. So we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about the early spring risers. And those

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Speaker 1: that might potentially sink or swim your fantasy team. Before

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Speaker 1: we get into all of them, don't forget everybody. Fantasypros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash draft Wizard. That's the place to run

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Speaker 1: your mock drafts. Get your mock draft on. Start preparing today.

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Speaker 1: It's free, it's free, it's fantastic, it's educational, it's it's

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Speaker 1: the what you need. It's what you need at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day to make sure you go and

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Speaker 1: get all your draft situations proper for all your leagues. Again,

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Speaker 1: download the app its spectacu or go to fantasypros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash draft Wizard. Run them. You can run one

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Speaker 1: hundred mock drafts all weekend. Whatever you want to do

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Speaker 1: to get prepared, So make sure you start that Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with some of the names here on the

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Speaker 1: risky picks. Again, risk is defined as you know, typically

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Speaker 1: a player that may or may not be worth the ADP. Now,

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Speaker 1: some risk we like because we know what the upside is.

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Speaker 1: Some risk we don't. So I want to know what

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Speaker 1: this first guy, what do you think about number one

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Speaker 1: on your list? Is this a risky player that you

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Speaker 1: are into for twenty twenty three or is the risk

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Speaker 1: just too much.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be brutally on it that I go

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Speaker 2: back and forth pretty much every day on this, and

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Speaker 2: the player that I think is literally the riskiest player

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Speaker 2: is Fernando Tatis Junior. When you're talking about this.

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Speaker 1: He's built for this.

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Speaker 2: Why Because he's suspended for the first month it's about

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Speaker 2: April twentieth, he's eligible to come back. He also is

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Speaker 2: coming off of two shoulder surgeries and he's really kind

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Speaker 2: of looked like he's been injury prone. Third, obviously, there

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Speaker 2: is the other substance component of why he was suspended

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Speaker 2: that we can question, like what role did that ultimately

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Speaker 2: take in it? The last thing that gets on it

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Speaker 2: as far as the negative goes. Take all of those

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Speaker 2: things in a bundle and look at the cost you

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Speaker 2: do not get him past the twentieth pick. You are

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Speaker 2: paying full price for a player coming off of shoulder surgery,

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Speaker 2: suspension for a PD or whatever you know, you want

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Speaker 2: to call it ring ringworm medication, and you're taking all

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Speaker 2: of that into consideration, and you're paying a top twenty

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Speaker 2: overall pick. The problem is, in two thousand and twenty one,

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Speaker 2: there wasn't many better fantasy players forty two homers, twenty

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Speaker 2: five stolen bases, and projections in general can't come off

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Speaker 2: of that because of the player that he is. His

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Speaker 2: batting average was great. Bat X has him at two

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Speaker 2: point eighty four, which by the way, is the highest

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Speaker 2: of any projection system. And I want you to understand

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Speaker 2: this first off, the bad X was so critical of

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Speaker 2: Fernando Tatist as a rookie. The bad X also, any

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Speaker 2: of these projections are meant to be lower. You don't

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Speaker 2: see that from this projection system. This is Derek Carties.

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Speaker 2: It was voted as the number one singular projection system

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Speaker 2: atc is like an aggregate. They were the most accurate

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Speaker 2: this year, voted by I believe it was Fantasy pros

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Speaker 2: and Derek Carties was like the second or the most

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Speaker 2: individual one. To see Derek have Fernando Tatis junior system

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Speaker 2: as the number one guy. That is eye opening. So

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Speaker 2: if you get thirty five homers, you get twenty stolen bases,

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Speaker 2: you almost get ninety ninety with a two eighty four

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Speaker 2: batting average. Guess what, You're golden even if it's one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty games. But you have all of those

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Speaker 2: other things that are staring at you. Lastly, if you

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Speaker 2: consider him a shortstop, it's a deep position in baseball. Luckily,

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Speaker 2: he's going to qualified outfield. Looks like he's gonna play

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Speaker 2: right field. That's what I saw him playing in one

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Speaker 2: of the instructional games before spring training started. So you

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Speaker 2: probably end up actually drafting him as an outfielder. But Joe,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you quantify any other player as

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Speaker 2: being as risky as Fernando Tatis Junior. It's the biggest

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Speaker 2: risk reward I think in fantasy this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but probably the biggest reward for the risk. And

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Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, for me,

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Speaker 1: Tatis is worth that. It's funny looking at him on

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Speaker 1: Fantasy pros next to his name, it gives the little

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Speaker 1: abbreviation s US because he's suspended. But you know, my

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Speaker 1: daughters like to use the word sus. You know, that's

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Speaker 1: what a teenager i'd say, And he is a little sus.

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Speaker 1: He's in terms of personality, he's sus in terms of health.

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Speaker 1: At times, there's a lot of suss around Fernando Tattis Junior.

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Speaker 1: But well, the upside is just so much, you know me,

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Speaker 1: it's like I'm ricky, Bobby like I want to be first,

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Speaker 1: or Las like I'll go for it all. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna give him to me in the second

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Speaker 1: if you're giving him to me in the second round,

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Speaker 1: which is where he's going, he is a top five

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Speaker 1: potential talent that's not going to happen again next year

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Speaker 1: if he has the year that he has, So to me,

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Speaker 1: it's the perfect opportunity to go all in. And I agree, like,

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Speaker 1: if Bobby Wit is there, you don't need to take

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Speaker 1: that risk. But once Bobby wits off the board, maybe

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Speaker 1: Pete A. Lowns is off the board, Trouts off the board.

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Speaker 1: You're looking at the guys that you feel good about,

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Speaker 1: that you know they are, and then there's a guy

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Speaker 1: that could change the whole dynamic of your league, and

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Speaker 1: Tatis is that guy. So yeah, he's risky, but I

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Speaker 1: think that's a risk that I'm willing to take. Starling

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Speaker 1: Marte is the guy I want to talk about with you,

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Speaker 1: because that's a guy that again I love the player,

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Speaker 1: love the power speed combination. The guy himself another guy too,

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Speaker 1: not a stranger to Pedis has mentioned in the past

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Speaker 1: as well, kind of like Tattis, but he's already kind

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Speaker 1: of coming off that groin issue. They're working him very slowly.

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Speaker 1: He's a little behind in camp too. That worries me

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Speaker 1: at another year older, worries me. Starling Marte is a

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Speaker 1: fan fantastic player. He is right now going as the

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Speaker 1: seventy first player off the board, and that's still a

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Speaker 1: pretty big investment where you worry about the health. You're

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Speaker 1: worrying about are you going to get one hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty games out of this guy? And that's a tall order.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's the case. If you look,

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Speaker 1: the last time you played one hundred and forty games

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Speaker 1: was twenty eighteen, one forty five. Last two years he

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Speaker 1: played one twenty one eighteen. He's not a player that's

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Speaker 1: just been on the field very much. So in a

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Speaker 1: tough sell, it's a great lineup, it's a good situation.

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Speaker 1: At his peak, he is a twenty twenty kind of threat,

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Speaker 1: and there's not a lot of those guys floating around,

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Speaker 1: So I understand the risk. It's a little bit cheaper

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Speaker 1: than the guys were talking about the start here Fernando Tattis,

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Speaker 1: But is Marte too risky for you, he is right

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Speaker 1: on the border. For me, I think it depends on

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Speaker 1: the If it's a shallow league, a more app to

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Speaker 1: take that risk. But in a deeper league, I think

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Speaker 1: I pass on him for something a little bit less risky.

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Speaker 1: I guess yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean I was gonna mention this with Tatis, like

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Speaker 2: it's worth the risk, and you slam on it in

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Speaker 2: the second round. But the problem is, like in a

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Speaker 2: fifteen team Roto's, it's a little bit tough for the

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Speaker 2: stomach where you're gonna have to take him in the

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Speaker 2: mid second round. A guy like Marte, even in a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a deeper league, he's still coming at

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Speaker 2: a cheaper cost. I'm worried about him. Athleticism declines as

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Speaker 2: ages get older. You've seen games played have decreased. If

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Speaker 2: you don't consider the COVID year four straight years, I

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Speaker 2: mean it has gotten less forced since twenty eighteen one

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Speaker 2: forty five one eighteen. In that same period of time,

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Speaker 2: his strike up percentage has risen from sixteen percent in

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen all the way up to nineteen point two

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Speaker 2: percent for four straight years. That's not good. Those are

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Speaker 2: not good warning signs. Sixteen eighteen was solid last year,

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Speaker 2: but we're getting into this place where we're like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: if Marte could play one forty, he's not. He doesn't,

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Speaker 2: and he's coming into the season injured. That should be

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest warning signs I think for a

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Speaker 2: lot of these players. But I do think where he's

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Speaker 2: going it's not it's not out of the it's not crazy.

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Speaker 2: It's not out of crazy.

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Speaker 1: But you know what, I look ten picks later, Corbyn

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Speaker 1: Carrol and Brian Reynolds are on the board.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but where are you saying he's going right now?

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Speaker 1: He's going at seventy overall, there's those guys going at

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Speaker 1: eighty two and eighty three. I'm just saying that's the

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Speaker 1: consensus right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but like with the injury stuff that has kind

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Speaker 2: of surfaced over the last.

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Speaker 1: Week, or that might change in the next week or so, right.

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Speaker 2: That if he's ninety ninety five, he I think he's okay.

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Speaker 2: But you are taking a player with diminishing skill set

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Speaker 2: declining as his age goes, and it literally is on

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Speaker 2: paper in front of us. So like I'm telling you

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Speaker 2: both stories, like I'm cool to take him in the

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Speaker 2: nineties because stolen bases if you ignored it. I have

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Speaker 2: a draft in tout right now where I really have

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Speaker 2: ignored stolen bases, and that's not great, But I've just

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Speaker 2: had such phenomenal hitters fall to me across the board.

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Speaker 2: Sure that you might have to make it a little

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Speaker 2: bit more of a priority there, but that's not necessarily

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Speaker 2: the spot where you're going to want to jump in

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Speaker 2: and taking, you know, declining at the the declining athleticism

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Speaker 2: of an outfielder just because you're doing it on stolen bases.

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Speaker 2: But it is a Mets, big offensive Mets team. I

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Speaker 2: think you have to ask yourself like you were about

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Speaker 2: to do with like Corman Care, like what are the

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Speaker 2: players that are around him?

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Speaker 1: I think you can make causes later. Look, I'm looking

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Speaker 1: the average ADPs at seventy one, and he's it's a

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Speaker 1: seventies too high in NFBC too. Right now, he's at

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Speaker 1: seventy eight in NFBC, so I mean a little bit

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Speaker 1: closer to some of the other But like you look

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Speaker 1: at some of the other spots, like CBS is all

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Speaker 1: the way up at sixty four. Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: next guy on your list of risky picks, who is it.

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Speaker 2: I've got Dylan Ceese, who I feel like I've talked about.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to mix Cease up here, but Dylan Ceze

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Speaker 2: has just got Volatiley. The strikeouts are phenomenal. We love

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Speaker 2: the strikeouts, but the walk rate is not. And I

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Speaker 2: like having the backdrop of being able to to be

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Speaker 2: able to like I know, I always have two hundred

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Speaker 2: plus strikeouts. I think that makes these guys easier to stomach.

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Speaker 2: But you had a huge ERA and xtip difference to

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Speaker 2: to era a three to five x tip. I really

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Speaker 2: do expect his ERA to jump back up into If

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Speaker 2: it's three fives. I'm not saying it's not good, but

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Speaker 2: where you're taking him, especially this range of picture, I'd

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Speaker 2: almost put these pitcher names around here. I don't really

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Speaker 2: want to jump and invest on a guy that if

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Speaker 2: you're paying for last year's era, that's not going to happen.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to have an under three ERA. He

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Speaker 2: may have the strikeouts in there, but I'm a little

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Speaker 2: bit worried overall about this rotation. The bounce back for

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Speaker 2: me is Lucas Gielito. When you're paying really high for

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Speaker 2: a When I look at this entire rotation outside. I

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Speaker 2: throw copek aside. I would rather invest in Lance Lane

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Speaker 2: and Gielito bouncing back than I would Dylan Ceese being

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Speaker 2: able to repeat what he can do. Nick Pollock was

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Speaker 2: on here when I mentioned him as a bus he agreed,

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Speaker 2: no way, he's I think his quote was, it's a

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Speaker 2: laughable where Dylan Ceese is going. So this is a

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Speaker 2: very risky pick if you jump in and invest in

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Speaker 2: your SPS on this high of a walk rate and

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Speaker 2: a player that's going to be able to repeat what

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Speaker 2: he did last year.

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Speaker 1: I agree. I think the ADP is a little high

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Speaker 1: right now for him, and I like the return you're

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Speaker 1: getting on Gilito and Lance Lane later one percent. Let's

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Speaker 1: the Home of Fantasy Sports, and now back to the action.

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Speaker 1: Next guy on my list is Clayton Kershaw. Back to

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Speaker 1: back seasons of twenty two starts. It's not gonna do

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Speaker 1: it for me, A guy said, chronic back issues, and

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Speaker 1: he's only thirty four. And I say oldly because I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at Verlander and Scherzer and those guys are like

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four and they're still out there,

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Speaker 1: you know, trying to get it done. I mean, Verlander's

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Speaker 1: coming off as I young, and I play in a

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Speaker 1: lot of head to head formats, and I think when

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Speaker 1: you play in the head to heads, you really got

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Speaker 1: to ask yourself this question. If we're already building in

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Speaker 1: twenty two starts, is basically what our expectation is. What

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Speaker 1: if we get a bigger injury? What do we get

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Speaker 1: multiple What if we're in a situation here with Kershaw

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Speaker 1: where it falls off the map, And that's a problem

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Speaker 1: for me at his current ADP, which is at one ten.

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Speaker 1: If you look around the other pictures going there, it's

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Speaker 1: guys we really like Blake Snell, George Kirby, like those

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Speaker 1: are some of the pictures right back to back there

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Speaker 1: where the high upside strikeouts of a guy like Hunter Green.

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Speaker 1: I understand in season long rot O the appeal of

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Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw for you get those twenty something starts, you

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Speaker 1: get some really good whip and ra numbers, you get

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Speaker 1: good strikeout total, everything that you want. But the durability

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Speaker 1: factor for me is a top one hundred player, which

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Speaker 1: is basically where he is, still just a little too high.

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Speaker 1: We'd rather take some of the upside of the Nick

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Speaker 1: Lodolos of the world at this point in their careers

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Speaker 1: because I'm already worried I'm trying to get blood out

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Speaker 1: of a stone with Clayton Kershaw in those twenty two starts,

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Speaker 1: and the more we kind of squeeze and squeeze, I'm

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Speaker 1: just a little worded at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: like we're gonna get tapped at a certain point with

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Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw, and head to head it worries me more

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Speaker 1: than season long Roto. So in season long rot more

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Speaker 1: app for that risk. In head to head it's a

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Speaker 1: risk I just don't want to take.

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Speaker 2: Welsh, did you say you squeeze blood out of a stone.

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Speaker 1: I do don't think my hands are so strong. I

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Speaker 1: have a stone. If I just squeeze it and it bleeds,

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Speaker 1: it bleeds blood and then it says, why did you

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Speaker 1: make me bleed my own blood?

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of risky pictures. Kershaw is a little

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Speaker 2: bit and.

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Speaker 1: Icy to me, like I from a stone is a

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Speaker 1: real thing. By the way, you're the king of mixing expressions.

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Speaker 1: I thought you made it. I thought that was It's

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Speaker 1: not a welshism.

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Speaker 2: That's a real you expect Now are you trying to screw.

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Speaker 1: Which? By the way, I have a follow up on

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Speaker 1: that from Justin Mason for don't let me forget. I

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Speaker 1: have the suggested new stat for next week. But let's

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Speaker 1: let's continue on about Kershaw. Give me your ten seconds

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Speaker 1: on Kershaw and then I want to move on to

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Speaker 1: the next guy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think in general Kershaw is where he's going.

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Speaker 2: You could look at it as risky. I don't quite

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Speaker 2: look at it outside the top one hundred is risky,

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Speaker 2: but you just know what you're getting an innings. They

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Speaker 2: will be good quality innings, but you have to be

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Speaker 2: comfortable with like one hundred and forty innings is what

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Speaker 2: you're going to get out of him, because you're not

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Speaker 2: going to get much more.

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Speaker 1: All right, next guy on your list.

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Speaker 2: Welsh is who So I've got a Dolius Garcia And

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Speaker 2: I think this is funny because this guy lived on

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Speaker 2: this list last year. But there's something that is just

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Speaker 2: standing out to me that I feel like we're being

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Speaker 2: lulled into a sense of comfort. We're all like, well,

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Speaker 2: it's done it for two years now, we're good. His

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Speaker 2: ADP when you look over on Fantasy Pros is eighty

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Speaker 2: five on the consensus, which is a valuable tool. By

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Speaker 2: the way, perusing through Fantasy Pros and looking you can

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Speaker 2: see ECR and you can also look at consensus rank

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Speaker 2: and I find that very valuable. Fifty eight is where

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Speaker 2: he's going. Here's some outfielders that are going behind him,

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Speaker 2: taoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Charlie Martes In. There

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Speaker 2: my point, listen to those three. What's the difference.

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Speaker 1: Why?

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Speaker 2: It's because the stolen bases on adulis people feel I

346
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Speaker 2: feel a lot more comfortable. He lowered a strikeout rate

347
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Speaker 2: last year. He maintained his batting average, which was good

348
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Speaker 2: but they are still high strikeout rates. There is still

349
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Speaker 2: a really low walk rate. I appreciate that he steals bases,

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Speaker 2: projections don't buy the stolen bases continuing. He also looks ginormous,

351
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Speaker 2: by the way, but he always kind of does. He's

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Speaker 2: just bigger than he was last year. He's a big guy.

353
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Speaker 2: But I just saw him and Camp. But beside the point,

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Speaker 2: I feel a lulled sense of comfort that's going on

355
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Speaker 2: with the dolls, and I don't want to fall for it.

356
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Speaker 2: He is a twenty twenty guy. Fully acknowledge that he

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Speaker 2: does it again, He'll break everybody. I just don't think

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Speaker 2: it's the case. And I listed up three outfielders that

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Speaker 2: really I'm going to take over a Doulas Garcia because

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Speaker 2: I don't he has no floor as far as contact

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Speaker 2: goes for me, with the higher strikeout rates in the

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Speaker 2: lower walk rates, and I don't know. I just the

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Speaker 2: two fifty battery average does not feel like that is

364
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Speaker 2: going to maintain. I think it's a really really high

365
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Speaker 2: cost and it's built a lot just about stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: The next guy on my list is one of Welsh's

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Speaker 1: old favorites. Now I'm not sure exactly where he stands

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Speaker 1: on this year. But if you listened to the show

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Speaker 1: last year, a lot of Byron Buxton talk and Byron

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Speaker 1: Buckston reminds me of that that song The Last Dance

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Speaker 1: by Gloria Gaynor, when I'm bad, I'm oh so bad.

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Speaker 1: And he was sometimes sometimes he was great. The April

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Speaker 1: was great to seventy one thousand ops. Then in May

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Speaker 1: of Bucks sixty nine batting average and at sixty ten ops.

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Speaker 1: Then in June to seventy five batting average with a

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Speaker 1: thousand ops. Then in July Buck eighty nine back affag.

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Speaker 1: You see where I'm going here? Yeah, And then of

378
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Speaker 1: course autist hits in September is he is not there

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Speaker 1: and I'm looking at Buxton. And the thing we used

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Speaker 1: always say is, well, at least you get the son

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Speaker 1: basis with Buckston, except last year we didn't. We only

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Speaker 1: got six deals out of him. We got a ton

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Speaker 1: of power, twenty in home runs. Nobody don't they expected

384
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Speaker 1: the power return in the amount of games, twenty in

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Speaker 1: homers in ninety two games. But the thing with Buckston

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Speaker 1: is I just don't know who he is. And the

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Speaker 1: only thing I do know about him is that he's

388
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Speaker 1: just not there enough for me, and that at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, at the pick he's going, which

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Speaker 1: is eighty seven. Overall, I struggle talking about those same

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Speaker 1: guys around that vein, Brian Reynolds, Cormyn Carrol. I like

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Speaker 1: those guys more, Gunner, Henderson's a player. I absolutely love

393
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Speaker 1: Dathaniel Low, William Donalds. There's a lot of guys in

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Speaker 1: this range between eighty and one hundred that I'm really

395
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Speaker 1: high on this year. And Bucks is a player that

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Speaker 1: every year the expectations are there, and every year it's

397
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Speaker 1: a disappointment. Welsh, where are you this year with Byron

398
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Speaker 1: Buckson in twenty three?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a little indifferent. I'm probably still like

400
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,879
Speaker 2: higher than the general sense, but I don't disagree with you.

401
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,479
Speaker 2: When I get into the eighties, it's not quite bust

402
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: in time for me, so I think I've missed out

403
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:40,960
Speaker 2: a lot of opportunities in it. The thing I would

404
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 2: argue is like the batting average did stink, sure, but

405
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,719
Speaker 2: even when the batting average stunk, he had a career

406
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Speaker 2: high in homers and he still stoles still six bases

407
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Speaker 2: in ninety games. If you were just to extrapolate for

408
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 2: a little bit. Even if he continued at his piss

409
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: poor batting average of two twenty four, which by the way,

410
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: was paired with a career a second career low in

411
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 2: babbit only the I think third time overall that esp

412
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Speaker 2: actually the third that he's ever hit under a three

413
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Speaker 2: hundred on his babbit. He is a career three to

414
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Speaker 2: zero five babbit. So this is over sixty points lower

415
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Speaker 2: and his normal babbit. He's still hit twenty eight homers

416
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Speaker 2: with six dolen bases. Extrapolate over in those ninety games

417
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Speaker 2: you're going to add on let's just say some word

418
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Speaker 2: crazy world where he played one hundred and fifty, he

419
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Speaker 2: would have been a forty ten guy last year. That's

420
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Speaker 2: where he would have looked at it. But his strikeout

421
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Speaker 2: rates absurd, his contact went through the roof. I agree,

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Speaker 2: I kind of don't know exactly who he is. The

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Speaker 2: only thing that I wish would stop with Byron Buckston

424
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Speaker 2: is people pretending like he's not incredible, because he is incredible.

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Speaker 2: Look what he did in the short amount of time

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Speaker 2: on a really bad batting average. He is an incredible

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Speaker 2: fantasy player when he's out there, So they don't pretend

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00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 2: like he's not, but he is broken all the time,

429
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 2: and that's what stinks. And I don't blame anybody for

430
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 2: moving off of him because I'm kind of doing the

431
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,439
Speaker 2: same thing. I don't go on it, but if he

432
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 2: plays one hundred and thirty games, all of you are

433
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 2: going to miss out on probably what is going to

434
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 2: be a first round talent. It's just he ain't gonna

435
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,640
Speaker 2: do it. He ain't gonna play one hundred and thirty games.

436
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: My knock on him is always the same thing it

437
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: was when he was I think taking second overall the

438
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 1: year in the draft. I said to me, Byron Buckson

439
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 1: was a better athlete than a baseball player. That was

440
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 1: always my knock on him. And I know he missed

441
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: a lot of developmental time with a lot of injuries.

442
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 1: So it's not like he got to the major leagues

443
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: and the injuries were problems. The injuries were a problem

444
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 1: in the minor leagues. He had minor league injuries. He

445
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: missed time, He missed development time. That was our big

446
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,479
Speaker 1: concern with him, and that is incredible. Raw athleticism has

447
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 1: always carried him. But eventually, now we're getting to a

448
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 1: point where it's just a tough investment for me. I'm

449
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: with you, like, if you get a bud, get a

450
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 1: discount on him. I'm listening, but it's definitely.

451
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 2: RELEGI you're listening. I'm drafting. The problem is fine, would

452
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: you say it was eighty seven?

453
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 1: Eighty seven?

454
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 2: I don't even know if I can pull the trigger

455
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 2: on that. I had to get a discount to do it.

456
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 2: You have to get a discount to consent. And that's

457
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: to make Buckston. He's probably I think like Tatis from

458
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 2: the Hole is kind of like the number one guy.

459
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 2: This is probably number three if we're not counting the

460
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 2: blatantly obvious Jacob de Groz.

461
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: Sure, all right, next guy on your Liz Welsh, is.

462
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 2: Who Tim Anderson? Now, Tim Anderson's skill sets are really

463
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 2: not to be debated, you know. Still thirteen bases last

464
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: year played, had six homers, hit three to zero one.

465
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: That is four straight seasons of a thirty three hundred

466
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 2: batting average or better. He's lowered his strikeout rate. It

467
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 2: was actually the lowest of his career this past year,

468
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: which was awesome. Had fifty runs, but seventy nine games.

469
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 2: Fifty runs in seventy nine games is the problem because

470
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 2: had one hundred and twenty three games a year before that,

471
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 2: forty nine in the COVID year still missed time one

472
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three. He's played one hundred and fifty

473
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 2: games once in his career. So the same thing that

474
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: we penalized Viral Buxton about Tim Anderson is not that

475
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 2: much different. He does maybe he plays a few more games.

476
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,199
Speaker 2: He doesn't play full seasons, he doesn't come close to

477
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 2: playing full seasons, and he doesn't come close to living

478
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 2: up to his expectations. We keep continuously chasing his twenty

479
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 2: twenty season in twenty eighteen. We don't get there because

480
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 2: he doesn't play the games. He has a better underlying

481
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 2: safety net because he doesn't strike out at the same rate,

482
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: But the guy also doesn't walk. So I also kind

483
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 2: of don't want to hear about why Tim Anderson is

484
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 2: such a smashing deal to everybody, and Byron Buckson is

485
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 2: the worst pick you can possibly have because he also

486
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: doesn't play the games. If he did and he was

487
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty guy, he's an insane deal, and I'm

488
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 2: cool with it. I'm cool with taking Tim Anderson under that, guys,

489
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,239
Speaker 2: but you do need to know you're not gonna get

490
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: a full season of games because it never happens. So

491
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 2: he's very risky if you pass up all those incredible

492
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 2: shortstops because you're telling yourself, Oh, I can get Tim Anderson.

493
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 2: He's awesome. Yeah, he is for one hundred and ten games.

494
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: Before I get to the shortstop on my list. I

495
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: want to remind everybody if you're watching on our YouTube channel,

496
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 1: subscribe to fans of ros MLB and if you're listening

497
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: to us on the podcast format, go subscribe to our

498
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Do it. It's fun, it's amazing, and we're

499
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 1: giving away a free upgrade of Fantasy Pros Premium for

500
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: somebody who is a subscriber who clicks a little bel

501
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: until it goes dig for notifications and drops a comment below.

502
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 1: So if you've got risky players you want to talk about,

503
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 1: drop him in the comments and just like that, you

504
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 1: will throw your hat in the ring for a free

505
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Premium upgrade where you get custom mock drafts,

506
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: salary cap draft tools, and in depth analysis of your

507
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 1: fantasy performance. A Fantasy Pros Premium. They've got all the

508
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: tools to help you win and unlock the most powerful

509
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: fantasy tools in the industry, So don't wait for the giveaway.

510
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: Sign up today Fantasypros dot com slash Premium or at

511
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 1: least throw your hat in the ring for the freebe two.

512
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: But again, either way, subscribe to Fantasy Pros m l B.

513
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 1: It's where it's at. Let's get to the short slop

514
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: on my list. It's Carlos Korea. Now, Korea had a

515
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: pretty good season. Talk about a guy who's limited to

516
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty games every year, you kind of

517
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: have that expectation with him, but he was good last year.

518
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: The fact that not one but two organizations bucked at

519
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: giving him a long term contract. Now, look, I understand

520
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: this is redraft we're talking about here. This is not

521
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 1: dynasty or keeper leak scenarios. But what if it's even

522
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 1: worse than we think Welsh Like, what if there's just

523
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 1: something here that to me that these two organizations saw

524
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: what they saw reacted the way they did, It tells

525
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,719
Speaker 1: me there's even more inherent risk in Carl's Korea than

526
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: we might realize. He's going at number one hundred overall,

527
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: still a place where the risk is understandable. You can

528
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: look at it and say, Okay, I'm gonna go ahead

529
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: and take this risk. I'm okay with it. But shortstop

530
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 1: is pretty deep. Shortstop has I think ways you can

531
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: go about it. Carlos Correa is going right after Willia Damas,

532
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 1: He's going right before Jeremy Pania. I'med Rosario, like, there's

533
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: some guys out there you can still kind of get

534
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: along with. I mean, Tim Anderson has fallen into a

535
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: lot of drafts too, I've seen recently. So there's definitely

536
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 1: this risky pile of shortstops, and I'm just a little

537
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: concern that maybe Carlos Korea's long term health might be

538
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: more of a short term risk than we realize, and

539
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: people aren't thinking enough like that. I'm not saying he

540
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 1: can't take him. I'm just saying, if you do, you

541
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: better have a plan. What do you think about Korea?

542
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. The only thing is like he's

543
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: played what is close to three full seasons. He played

544
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty six to six games this past year,

545
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 2: which isn't like a full but it's better than Tim Anderson.

546
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: One hundred and forty eight the year before, no doubt.

547
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 2: Which is still close to a full season, and fifty

548
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 2: eight in the COVID year. I mean that's three straight years.

549
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: His bomb was also a guy pushing for a contract

550
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: in those years. That's not for you, But I don't.

551
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: Think you just you get your money and you're just like,

552
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 2: all right, cool, let's break the ankle. You know it's

553
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 2: gonna lik relegate.

554
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 1: But there's one thing to push through, and then the players,

555
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: when they get the long term guaranteed money, the pushing

556
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: all of a sudden stops. Well.

557
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 2: One of his biggest problem is like pushing through the production.

558
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: He literally has like.

559
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 2: Never lived up to his expectations.

560
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 1: Like he has.

561
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 2: We're always like, oh, hitting, he can't. He hasn't stolen

562
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: a base for three years. That's out the window. The

563
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: run totals he had one year. Funny enough, you could

564
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: take the COVID year and twenty twenty two and it's

565
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: still not the amount of runs he scored in twenty

566
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: twel that was the outlier out there. So like, he

567
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 2: just doesn't live up to expectations. He has this crazy

568
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: lingering ankle thing that we're staring at, that's in our face.

569
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: I do think that makes him risky. But here's my question.

570
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: Ninety one ADP is Tim Anderson one hundred is Carlos Korea.

571
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 2: Do you think Carlos who is riskier to you? Do

572
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 2: you think Carlos Korea is so much safer than Tim

573
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 2: Anderson or risky?

574
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 1: No, I think Korea is risk here. I really do.

575
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 2: I like Anders Why because because but Anderson plays less

576
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 2: games without USh.

577
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 1: He's going to give you the stolen bases, and he's

578
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: gonna give me, I know, the batting average. I'm gonna

579
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: lock it. He gives you those two things that I

580
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: think are a little harder to find, which is batting

581
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: average and solen bases, whereas Korea that you're not getting

582
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: any steals. You know that that's never coming. And I'll

583
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: be the first to admit, like I thought, Carlos Correa

584
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: is going to be a franchise type player and it

585
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: just never materialized. Maybe his injuries, maybe just was overrated.

586
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 1: But I remember the first time I saw him when

587
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: he was like seventeen eighteen years old, and I thought,

588
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: my god, this guy could be the next a Rod

589
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: And he just never never developed in the same way.

590
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: And I don't think he grew the same way either.

591
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: I think he looked at the frame and you thought

592
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: he was going to develop in a different way, and

593
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: he never did, and I think maybe that's also part

594
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: of the equation. But at the end of the day,

595
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 1: it's a player that again the risk for me is

596
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 1: not great.

597
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 2: I think they're as risky as you can get. And

598
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 2: this is such a deep position, and we fall into

599
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: this sometimes that I think it's a crutch where you

600
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 2: know it's so deep, I can get it later, I

601
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 2: can get one of those guys. I think you put

602
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 2: yourself in a massive amount of risk. I think Tim

603
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 2: Anderson is as risky as Carlos Korea for different reasons.

604
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: Anderson has a floor. Maybe statistically, Correa is gonna play

605
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 2: more games. That's just a fact because that's what he does.

606
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: Want to wonder Franco and Andre Semenez a.

607
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: Better short stop, that's my whole point. Take a better

608
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 2: shortstop than all of these losers.

609
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: Please, I agree. I say, let's get to the last

610
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 1: guy on your lovingly it's the lovingly loser kind of situation. Here,

611
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: give me the last guy on your list. Welsh and

612
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: I love this one.

613
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: Tyler O'Neill. Tyler O'Neill, I cannot wrap my head around.

614
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm not going to even try guys projections have wild numbers.

615
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: People love him. He had a wardier last year ninety

616
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: six games, fourteen fourteen homers, fourteen sol base is okay.

617
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 2: He hit two twenty eight. Strikeout rate was better than

618
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: the previous year, but still relatively bad. Babbit was low,

619
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 2: so you could see that kind of bouncing back up,

620
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: but a hard hit tanked. It went to forty three

621
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: percent from fifty two percent. His barrel rate dropped six percent,

622
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: his launch angle went down. I look at all of

623
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 2: that stuff and I go, okay, Like he's a good

624
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 2: fantasy player, but he's becoming this perennial buyback bad X

625
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 2: as him at twenty six homers, fifteen stolen bases, and

626
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 2: I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how

627
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: comfortable people are drafting him, thinking we're just back, We're

628
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: just getting this completely back. And I know it's annoying

629
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: to this point, but I would rather go and take

630
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: my chances with large newbar than this. I think there's

631
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: a lot of strikeout volatility. The batting average worried me.

632
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: In general. He's obviously a physical freak and a monster

633
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: and can absolutely rocket balls out of there. I've just

634
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 2: never been a big Tyler on and it's coming off

635
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 2: of a really bad year. I think he is plenty risky,

636
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 2: though his cost isn't crazy, but it's still one oh two.

637
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 2: It's just after a top one hundred, and that doesn't

638
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: process in my brain why I would take a one

639
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: hundred overall pick for Tyler O'Neill. On the bounce back,

640
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 2: I'd say, it's a big no, thank you. It's amazing

641
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 2: seeing him next to Byron Buxton. I might be crazy.

642
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: I'll take Byron Buxton, Toots, take Tyler O'Neill.

643
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: Please, that's not even close, not even close for me.

644
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. So there we go. We

645
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: found the losers we love. There we go, all right,

646
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: no spoiler alert here. It's you know, same old, same old,

647
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: the twenty sixth player overall, the number five pitcher overall,

648
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: Jacob deGrom. I'm not doing it. He is the riskiest

649
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: pick in Fantasy baseball, and I'm somebody who's fading to

650
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: the top of the board at pitching anyway, because I

651
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: want that offense this year. I want to make sure

652
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: I lock those guys in. And as I've said many

653
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: times on the show, pitchers ten through thirty. There's a

654
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: lot of ace material there and you don't get that

655
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: every so, whether it's some of the guys that are

656
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: a little undervalued because of age, where there guys that

657
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: are just you know, like Joe Musco who performed like

658
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: an age we we talking about Joe Muscove was nlsy

659
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: young for the first four months of the year. Okay,

660
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys out there that you can

661
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: live with in your rotation and get a couple of

662
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: them and kind of pound that ten to thirty range

663
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: and get two or three guys out of there. I'm

664
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 1: not doing it with Jacob de Gram. I'm not doing it.

665
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: And you know what I thought of today? This was

666
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: a new wrinkles, like how can I beat this drum

667
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: a different way? And here it is wels Jacob de Gram. Arguably,

668
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: I think you would agree when he is right, is

669
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: the best picture in baseball.

670
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: Correct, It's without question?

671
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: Why did nobody else want him but the Texas Rangers?

672
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: Well, how do you know that? I mean, the Texas

673
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: Rangers offered a tank a tank of money, So.

674
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: What do you they offered a tank of money? But

675
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: did you hear I didn't hear one buzz about anybody

676
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: else kicking the tires on Jacob de Gram. Significant offers

677
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: being made. The Mets made offer, there's an underwhelming offer.

678
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: It was a market value offer because they know what

679
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: they're getting into with him. But only the Texas Rangers

680
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: who need to overpay in order to get guys there,

681
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: and Jacob de Gram certainly was not going to turn

682
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: that money down. But where were the Yankees, Where were

683
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: the Dodgers? Where were Houston? Where? I mean Houston Astro

684
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: is going to use the starting pitcher with Justin Verlander

685
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: leaving right. None of those teams stepped up to have

686
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: conversations with Jacob de Gram. I think that's a huge

687
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: red flag that people should recognize and realize. It's not

688
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: that he can't be good, it's that that you're asking

689
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: that adp for him to be thirty starts good and

690
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: I can't get there, Welsh, I just can't do it. Yeah,

691
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: I get it.

692
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't like where he is now. The

693
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: camp stuff has bothered me. It really has, because I've

694
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: watched his demeanor, like like walking around and his interactions

695
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: and also him not doing anything. He just like walks around.

696
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: He's never doing anything he threw. I believe it was

697
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 2: on Thursday he threw like thirteen pitches in a full

698
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 2: bullpen session, which I is a positive by the way,

699
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: all fastballs. He had done a couple of light toss

700
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: before that, and then he's expected maybe later next week

701
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: or in to this week, four or five days that

702
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: maybe he's going to start doing like a more intense

703
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 2: bullpen session and then getting into games. I think he's

704
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: gonna kind of buck some of the concerns that have

705
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: been brewing. But I just haven't liked it in general.

706
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: And that's not a picture you pay like the third

707
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: overall sp four, you should pay quite a lower bit

708
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 2: for it. I'm still in Jacob de Gram and I'll

709
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: take I mean, if he's five here, I think it's

710
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: probably closer to eight or nine. That's where it would

711
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 2: really be comfortable. And you are right, you know the

712
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 2: Tatis thing. He's the highest capital risk of any player

713
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: that you have to take. But Jacob de Gram is

714
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: probably the riskiest because if you spend a really really

715
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 2: high piece on him and he gets hurt like he does,

716
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: it's gonna set you back. The problem is is he

717
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: just is the best picture in all the baseball and

718
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: he could literally win you a half of a year

719
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: and he could you know, return your stats in rodo

720
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 2: or he could set you set you off in a

721
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: head to head if he earlies misses time. But you

722
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: just have no idea.

723
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: You have no idea what you do Where you take

724
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: de Grom when he bottoms out, you're missing on offense too,

725
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: and then you're busing on pitching. Also, I mean, like

726
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 1: the like the big pitch completely wrong.

727
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: Then that's like the big pitching argument too. Right now

728
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: is like you have really early high investment in pitching,

729
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: you're just passing up like really elite elite hitters. And

730
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: that's I think really tough to do because of the

731
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: great pitch. And we've talked about like a ton of

732
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 2: the names like the George Kirby's and the Hunter Greens

733
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: and the Musgroves and stuff. You can get those guys later.

734
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: I think it's really hard to palot like why you

735
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 2: would take a guy like Jacob Gram with all the risk.

736
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 2: And I'm acknowledging that and I'm like the Jacob de

737
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: Gram apologist, so I totally get it.

738
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about our early spring training adp risers.

739
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: I figured what we do is look at the consensus

740
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: ADP and then look at some of the guys where

741
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: they're going in NFBC, because the NFBC drafts are very serious,

742
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: and those are good indicators of where trends are going

743
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: because those leagues have a lot of money invested in them.

744
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: So the first one for me is Josh Hater. Fifty

745
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: three is the consensus ADP for him. NFBC is forty one.

746
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: So those closers tend to get bumped up in those formats,

747
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: closers and catchers, and NFBC you'll see a little higher

748
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: ADP two speaking, but the Hater one, obviously people were

749
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: just buying into what they saw when he went to

750
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: San Diego and getting the ship right. Corbyn Carroll one

751
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 1: of our mascots. He might be this year's mascot on

752
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: the show. He might be eighty two in consensus seventy

753
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: in NFBC. So that is a big jump here at

754
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: a twelve spot jump for the NFBC people. They're telling

755
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: you they're being aggressive on this player. That's a good thing.

756
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 1: Now he's a value in early drafts, but that might

757
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: not last very long. So as we get closer and

758
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: closer to your draft days, keep an eye and be

759
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: ready to pay the premium. And then Jonathan India, people

760
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,280
Speaker 1: are starting to get a little forgiveness on Justin Mason

761
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 1: last week in the draft. Hello forgiveness for Jonathan India.

762
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 1: He drafted him. One ninety one is the consensus ADP

763
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: one seventy eight is the NFBC one. So people are

764
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: starting to look at Jonathan India starting to get out

765
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: of the tunnel vision of last year and say, Okay,

766
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 1: this was a player who was a high prospect, had

767
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: a very good rookie campaign last year. Nothing went right

768
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 1: for him, and they're starting to buy back in Now

769
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 1: that's one that I think has risk, ironically, but Corbyn, Carrol,

770
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: Josh Hater, those are two guys you can see the

771
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 1: ADP starting to rise, So get ready to spend because

772
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: that's not going away anytime soon. And then India is

773
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: a player that you have to ask yourself, do I

774
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 1: want to spend on this player when he goes past

775
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: that one to seventy ish range that becomes more of

776
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 1: a risk. Wells, who were three guys that you've seen

777
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: starting to roll up in ADP early on?

778
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are low. These are a little bit lower numerically,

779
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: but there's also been some actually like string training buzz

780
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: that is going to push them up. I sorted this

781
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 2: also by NFBC Draft Champions from February first on. Compared

782
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: to the Fantasy Pros consensus, oneal Cruz has gone up

783
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: a couple spots seventy three on Fantasy Pros, seventy one

784
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 2: on NFBC. I know that doesn't seem like a lot,

785
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: but that church stop position is so deep. Oneal Cruz

786
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 2: simply going out in spring training and talking about not

787
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: only does he want to be a thirty thirty guy,

788
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 2: but he is setting goals to try to be a

789
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 2: forty to forty player, And I think significantly that just

790
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 2: jumps in all of our minds. Him simply saying that

791
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: just makes us go into a frenzy and he will

792
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 2: start going up, and I think it's warranted. I want

793
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,479
Speaker 2: oneo Cruz. I have him higher than this. I would

794
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 2: hate to see him go too crazy. But after Corey

795
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 2: Seger goes off the board, I'm looking on O'nillkruz because

796
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 2: of the insane stats. He has number two Gunner Henderson

797
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: ninety three on Fantasy Pro Since February first, he's jumped

798
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: up to ninety on NFBC. A big reason also with

799
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 2: that is kind of the same Korby Carrol stuff. There's

800
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 2: a lot of rookie excitement in there, but position eligibility.

801
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 2: Almost everybody agrees on this one statement that Gunner Henderson

802
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: ends the tier of comfortable third basement, and that is

803
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: only going to make a player go up, especially as

804
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: he gets into games and starts to roll. So you're

805
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 2: slowly starting.

806
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: To see this.

807
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 2: It will be much bigger soon. And then the final

808
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 2: one is Joe Ryan one forty five on Fantasy pros.

809
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 2: He's jumped up to one forty on NFBC. That's relatively significant,

810
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: and he talked about adding a new pitch. There's a

811
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: couple of good articles out there. I believe Alex Fast

812
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: was covering him. New pitch alert tends to always get

813
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 2: a pitcher moving up, but Joe Ryan is one of

814
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: the few that's at a really low cost and has

815
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 2: a really good floor, and people are jumping on Joe Ryan,

816
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: Gunner Henderson on'el Cruz some spring training adp risers that

817
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 2: are only going to increase, and we're seeing it at

818
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: least from February first on over on NFBC and.

819
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan for me, well, she's one of those guys.

820
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: I've already put draft capital in. I've got it in

821
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: my keeper leagues too, So keep an eye who else

822
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: is right. That cost is not going to stay cheap

823
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: much longer. So those are your risky guys, your early

824
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 1: adp risers. Again, drop your comments below in the YouTube.

825
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: We want to know from you who some of your

826
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: risky picks are that you love and you hate, love it.

827
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 1: You want to call them losers, Go ahead, do it.

828
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: Make sure you subscribe the thing. When you do, that's right,

829
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: lovingly losers, But you got to be a subscriber. First

830
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: click that little beltill it goes ding, and then you

831
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,279
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832
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: your mock draft on at fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard,

833
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: or just download the app. Make it easy on yourself.

834
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 1: I want to thank the sponsor of today's show, and

835
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: that's Fantracks. Head over to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy

836
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: Pros today, start a new league or move your old

837
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,440
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838
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839
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:13,520
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840
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

841
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,879
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll

842
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the

843
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy

844
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 1: Pros MLB, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

845
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,680
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