WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2022 Q2 MLB Derivatives Stats Show 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.480 Check it down Man Tuesday morning, July two. It is 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.800 the Beating of the Book podcast, Kill Alexander. Thank you 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:19.439 so much for listening today to the Q two MLB 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:23.919 Derivatives podcast. This is one of these podcasts we do 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:26.440 Q one Q two through uh Q one, Q two, 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:30.720 Q three, I should say derivatives MLBS betting podcast. We've 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:35.000 done them for years, my guest and I for a decade. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:37.120 We've done these, but in the last couple of years 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:39.199 we shifted over from the podcast side of Beating the 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:41.080 Book and just did it on a numbers game on 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:45.240 the radio side. We're back on the podcast format now 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:48.480 with a Q two. You know who I'm talking about, 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:52.000 Mark Borcher, Basse Winner. How you doing Mark? Yo? This 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.080 is so exciting for me. It brings back a memory 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.480 of being the first guests on your show, and I 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.080 really am proud of that. I've because you've gotten so 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:03.800 good and so big in the industry and I can 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.360 always say, well, I was the first guest on gil show. 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:09.199 But it's it's so cool because I remember that show 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:11.280 and like I was on my cell phone and the 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:13.840 audio it was it was popping and and you know, 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:15.880 the phone was cuting in and out, so I think 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:19.560 we'll have better audio this time. That was probably twenty eleven, 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:28.000 mark if I'm if I'm eleven, like legitimately, legitimately before 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.679 most human beings on earth at a podcast, and now 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.000 everybody of course has one. Yeah, it's it's so true. 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:37.280 It's you know, I wonder, like, how how how much 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.840 time do people have to listen to all these podcasts? 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:44.480 We met in a forum, we won't say which. We 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.240 met in a forum, and we were not allowed to 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:52.160 interact in a solicitation kind of way. So I guess 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:55.520 I I liked you so much or all right, you 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.040 resonated with me in your baseball knowledge so much that 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.960 I had the audacity to ask for your phone number 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:03.000 off so we could talk off air, and it was 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.680 quickly reprimanded. I oh yeah, we got scolded. Yes, yes, 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:11.440 that's right, And here we are, more than a decade later. 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:13.520 So here's how this works. It's been great, it's been 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.480 great being I'm just personally, I just wanted to take 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:18.320 this opportunity to say how how excited I am to 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.240 do your show every day. I love being on a 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.239 guest on your show and I love doing the podcast. 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:24.880 So this is exciting for me. Dude. I love having 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:28.400 you man, you have you have been a staple throughout Um. Well, 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:30.680 I'm trying to think what other things. Oh, others have 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.400 blamed me for you trying to hire other people at 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.280 your business because they know we're associated, and of course 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.079 I have nothing to do with any of that. That's 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:42.200 so funny, man. Okay, that's a great story. That's a 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.880 great story. Oh isn't it though? Okay, So for those 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.160 who forgot, this is how we do this. This is 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:53.200 essentially this whole exercise is uh an attempt to see 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:55.760 what in the first half. Since we're Q two and 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.040 I get it, we're a little past the halfway more 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.840 all the better. What what has happened betting wise in 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:04.919 the first half of the season that is predictive for 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.640 us perhaps when betting moving forward. A lot of what 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.800 we're gonna talk about ultimately isn't predictive. It's gonna be 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.840 just a narrative like, oh, look, this has happened, but 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:15.960 there's no rhyme or reason to it, and it's unlikely 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.800 to sustain. But there is gonna be some insights of 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.760 of things that we believe will be predictive and it's 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:24.040 up to you, also, the listener, to determine what is predictive, 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:25.919 but what is narrative. And it's very simple. It's good. 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.640 We're just gonna go through the best money line teams again, 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.000 Bizarro exercise. If you're betting them, to win a unit 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:33.520 as a favorite, if you're risking a unit as a dog, 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.040 home road splits on those run lines. Then we'll do 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.640 starting pitchers, we'll do umpires, will do first five innings, 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.120 and we'll do first innings, which is super proprietary. That's 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.200 the gig. You're ready, Yeah, let's go, all right, let's 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:48.960 do it. Let's start with the most widely available. These 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:51.280 are the money line numbers. You can get them at 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:55.640 sites like covers dot com. Very simple to look these up. 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.280 The number one. Now, Mark and I did a we 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.720 did a radio o version of this last week, and 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.920 so the answers to these questions have somewhat shifted the 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:08.320 number one money line team in baseball this year. Mark, 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.160 if you're betting them again, Bizarro exercise, to win a 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:13.160 unit as a favorite, to risk a unit as a dog. 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:16.040 Let's say you just beat them every single game. I 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.520 get it, it's not reality, but if you did, who 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.520 has been the most profitable team in baseball to this moment, sir, Well, 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:24.400 the numbers I'm looking out of the Yankees there, you 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:26.159 might have it. You might be looking at different numbers. 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.120 So it depends on how you bet them. I've got 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:32.880 the Baltimore Orioles at number one, up fourteen point one 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:37.000 units on the season, forty three and forty four. Now 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.120 the Orioles, I got them at fourteen point one units. 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:42.840 I have the Yankees. And so that's that's the difference 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:45.960 between risk and UH. I think what they do is 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:50.000 to risk, to risk a flat amount to win. And 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:53.360 then I'm looking at stat Fox and stat Fox says, well, 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:55.799 you got you know, the Yankees. You gotta risk whatever 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.279 today minus three hundred, there's a three units to win one. 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:04.239 Just because of that is an interesting aside, UH, covers 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:08.680 does it risk one to win whatever? And right? So 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.520 Covers would do in that case risk one unit to 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:15.719 win point three three units? Right? Exactly? Right? Sure? So 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.200 got it? Yeah, So it shakes out, and I think 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.000 it's in my opinion, it's it's not that big of 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:22.960 a deal either way. But the way I do it 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:24.839 when I send out my plays and stuff is to 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.680 risk because this is a really good point, I think, 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:31.800 because I think it gives you a better return on 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.320 those underdog plays and that bears out. And when we're 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.880 looking at these standings, it's it's sure is sure is true? 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:39.560 And I think that that's hard to something that that 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:43.520 I'd like to try to get a decent return on underdogs, 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:45.800 and it's hard. It's sometimes it's so hard to play 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.279 these underdogs. Gil. You well, you and I were talking earlier, 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:50.880 you on the show today on a numbers game. We 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:54.600 were talking at Visa and we're doing this MLB betting pentathlon, 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.760 right five picks in a spour day span, uh, to 0:05:57.880 --> 0:05:59.880 determine who is the greatest baseball better who's ever walked 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:01.599 the to the earth as as I like to say. 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.120 And yeah, we were we were just sort of talking 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:07.040 about how the today's slate, for instance, Boy, it's tough 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:10.360 to play any of these dogs today. It is so difficult, 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:12.640 especially the big ones. But but getting back to the 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:13.919 to the point on the so you and I have 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:17.160 always done it through this through the years, risking to 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:20.760 win a unit or as a favorite, risking above a 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:22.520 unit to win a unit, risking a unit to win 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.720 more than a unit as a dog. But it's the 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.400 point being with the team's Baltimore, New York, whatever order 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.920 you have them in, just think about again for baseball betters, again, 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.039 just a sort of you know, uh, brief reminder to 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:38.599 those who might be new, you know, the Yankees for 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:42.520 them to be a top two winner to this point 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:46.159 for major League baseball betters, think about how amazing that is. 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.200 The two teams have gotten their completely different ways. Right. 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:51.520 Baltimore has been a dog so many times or a 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:54.599 slight favorite, and it makes sense with their overperforming forty 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:57.240 three and forty four and your standings, how they would 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.960 be either the most profitable or second most profitable to 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.719 be in baseball. But the Yankees have overcome that juice 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:06.600 mark time and time again to get there, which is 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:13.080 just incredible. Right, It's amazing, and and we still I 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:16.200 could find a reason today to not bet on the Yankees. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:18.720 I want to hear the guy who who wants to 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:20.720 who wants to put money on the Reds. I want 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:22.640 to hear that handicap, And I'm not trying to be 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:24.640 smart about it is. Yeah, I'd like to hear the 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:26.960 other side. Yeah, I didn't bet the Yankees, to be clear, 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:28.840 but I couldn't think of a reason why to bet 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.400 on Ashcraft and the reds um and, by the way, 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.600 the Yankees. And this was pointed out by Will Hill, 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:36.600 who works at VISA who also does the New York 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.400 City cast. He has to cover local New York teams, 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.200 and he was talking about the Yankees. And what's even 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.520 more incredible, I think is a great point is they 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.600 have so many holes too that could be improved. Not 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.760 pitching necessarily, but kinder fore left of they roll him 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:53.720 out every days, has been good defensively, he hasn't been 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:57.480 good offensively. Joey Gallo probably shouldn't even be in a lineup. 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:01.280 And yet right like, there's places you could still improve 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:05.120 that team. I think so, oh absolutely Gallo, Gallo and 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.480 and Felife are are two really good examples. So those 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.280 that's those are good points. Gill. Yeah, Mets, by the way, 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.280 third most profitable one inline team Houston fourth. You might 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.240 have those in different orders as well, but those are 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.400 the four teams by far on top of the Major 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:22.440 League Baseball money line standings. Again, Bizarro exercise, you're Bednham 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:24.960 every day, whether it's a favorite or a dog the 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:30.520 biggest hemorrhaging team. Same exercise would be I've got the Angels, guil, Oh, 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:32.200 you do, okay, so I have it. So again, it's 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:36.840 it's really tight between the A's, the Angels, and the Nationals. 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.920 Those are the worst three by far, correct, Yeah, those 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.200 are the worst three by far by The one thing 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:49.560 that's interesting of this group, Gil is the Nationals. I 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.280 think I think that their offense is pretty good. You know, 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.520 if you look at their their play discipline stats their 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.199 fourth in baseball on BB divided by K, which is 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:02.760 an important out offensively to me. The pitching is not 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:06.560 so good, but maybe it's a team to look at 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.640 playing team totals over one of the things. I looked 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:12.800 at these stats the other day, and everybody but one 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:16.000 one player is down on their is so power off 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.640 of the National's offense, and so I think that's that's 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.120 something that's going to regress to the good Gil. Okay, 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.440 So I guess at the bottom, I guess the noteworthy team, right, 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.079 The Nationals stink and the standings thirty eight, as do 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:31.640 the Athletic But I mean, is there a more disappointing team? Obviously, 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.959 the betting market, and what we're talking about reflects that 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:37.840 than the Angels. I mean horrific, right. I have them 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:40.520 down almost eighteen units on the season, thirty eight and 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.280 forty nine, arguably with the two best players in baseball 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.800 and Trout Notani, and they still can't get it together. 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:50.839 Isn't that amazing? Gil? And I was one of the 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.480 guys who was somewhat bullish on the on the Angels. 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:55.679 I kind of liked them outside chance of winning that 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:58.600 a l West. But if you would have told me 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:01.480 that you would have gotten a Tonny with with an 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.600 e r A of two point four four, a base 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:05.439 winner e r a of two point four four, I 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:06.960 would have been like, man, that team is gonna be 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.720 right in the thickest things. They sure are. They sure 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:12.000 are not. By the way, that's another team tonight. Right again, 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.120 we're doing this on a Tuesday, so forgive this part 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.680 won't like sort of stand the test of time. But 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.079 they're a home dog with cinder guard on the hill 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.520 today and not a very big one against the Astros. 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.800 I believe it is. I can't get to play the 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.920 Angels price. I just can't get there. Yeah, Well, the 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.160 only thing is is Alvarez is out of the lineup, 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.520 right that that makes a big difference synder Guard. And 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.040 I will admit because I went on your show and 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.360 I said, we'll watch out for synder Guard. He could 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.440 be an outside chance to win the cy Young. And 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:42.760 he's been terribly. He has not been the Noah synder 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:44.599 Guard of old, that's for sure. But some of his 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:47.200 numbers are okay, he's kind of survived. But I just 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.040 I can't bet him. I can't even bet him with 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.280 with the alvare is out of the lineup. By the way, 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.040 for the podcast audience, Mark is being super humble because 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:56.840 he called Robbie ray And a a hundred to one to 0:10:56.840 --> 0:10:59.560 win the cy Young last year. In July, he had 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.120 the yang Key's way over their season win total this 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.440 year at nine. Just some of his recent calls, um 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.880 so when he's self deprecating, know that there is uh, 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.280 there's genius behind it as well. By the way, I'll 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.080 just I'll just give you the home road splits the 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.560 best home roads, and I'm just curious. I'll just ask 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.720 the simple question, what of this do you think is meaningful? 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:21.400 What is sustainable? What is just random? Baltimore most of 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:25.760 their money when is at home. Close to twelve units 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:30.240 of their winds have been at home at Camden Yards Yankees, 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.360 most of theirs at home. Those are the two best 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:35.520 home money line teams in baseball. Baltimore and the Yankees 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.280 also the two best overall. They're the two best at home, 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:43.040 the two worst at home the Oakland A's, followed by 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:46.160 the Washington Nationals. You know, the White Sox would be 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.200 a distant third at home. That was the one we 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.559 seized upon last time. The White Sox are super bad 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.720 at home for betters, and they're actually up about five 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.400 units on the road. And we were talking about this 0:11:57.400 --> 0:11:59.520 and and I'll just sort of get you to repeat that. 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:03.280 You think that's completely random, right about the White Sox 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.800 home road splits, Yes, Skill, I think that's a random stat. 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.880 If somebody can give me an explanation for for that disparity, 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.080 please tell me, because I'd be dying to find out. 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:15.560 And again, I'm not trying to be smart. I just 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:18.960 can't find an explanation. Yeah, other than just just pure 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:21.600 variants on that gil, I would agree and then away 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.760 in case anyone's interested. The Padres are actually the most 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.040 profitable team on the road. About eight and a half 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:30.199 units if you bet them every single time. Favorite or 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:33.320 dog on the road, Houston I have his number two, 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.160 and I have the Mets is number three. And then 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.200 in terms of that that just road records. And again with 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.040 with San Diego, Houston and the Mets. Part of the 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.920 explanation is they're just good at baseball generally speaking. And 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.240 then the worst teams on the road, the Angels are 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:50.760 by far the world on the road, so at least 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:54.240 half of their loss comes on the road when you 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.480 bet the Angels, and it's pretty evenly split. Actually home 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:58.880 in road, the Angels just stink both places. And then 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.200 after that it's you know, the poopoo platter of the 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:03.400 Reds and the Rockies on the road. The Rockies, of course, 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.320 we I think we should seize on that. The Rockies, 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:10.079 who are you know, down two and a half units 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.520 roughly on the season and the money line exercise up 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:17.240 close to four units at home, down a little more 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:21.120 than six units on the road. That is very Rockies esque, 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:25.720 isn't it. Yeah? And if you look at the Rockies, Uh, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.640 this has been a consistent thing that's happened over the 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:34.160 years since uh two thou nineteen so this is two 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.760 one and this year they're eighty three and one nine 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:41.200 straight up on the road. So you know, that's that's 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.760 pretty amazing. And I think that there's something to it. 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.240 I I just don't think that the hitters can adjust 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.360 from the altitude that I think it takes them a 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:52.440 while to adjust and and it's it's amazing. But every 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.120 year you see that, and then I'm guilty of it. 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.600 I don't see the opportunity to bet against them on 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.080 the road enough in my opinion. That's so that's is 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:01.560 a great point for those of us have been doing 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.760 that for years. Mark, It's such a great point what 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.880 you just said, which is we can describe these things 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.600 in a macro way, right, like we know this Rockies 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.199 thing to be a truism tried in true year after year, 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:18.400 but in our daily assessment of value on individual game lines, 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:21.960 it just never gets there for us. So then we 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:23.920 view it in the rear view and we're like, oh, 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.040 we missed this massive opportunity again, what's wrong with us? 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.000 But sometimes it's just not at clear on a daily basis, 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:33.160 yet incrementally over time it manifests. By the way, just 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.840 in case, and I'll ask you again, is there anything 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:38.480 to this? The biggest discrepancy on the money line, and 0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:40.640 then we'll go to run line, the biggest discrepancy on 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.400 the on the on the money line, home road splits 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.680 the Oakland Athletics we just talked about, we're one of 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.760 the three worst teams period in baseball. Beending on the 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.480 money line makes sense. They suck their twenty nine and 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:56.120 fifty nine, but eighteen and a half of their units 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:01.800 lost ore are at home. They're actually up a half 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:07.680 unit on the road. Do you make anything of that? Now? 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.280 It's it's it's hard to do to make anything and 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.240 that The only thing I can think of on that 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:17.000 is the park is such a cavern there, so maybe 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.680 they don't have you know, maybe they don't have the 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:24.560 real power bats uh to to be successful in that 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.760 big cavern park. But then when they go to more 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.040 of a neutral park, they can get some home runs, uh, 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.920 their their offense can get some more home runs. It's 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.640 an interesting question, being an interesting sort to see how 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:40.080 really powerful teams do when they go to Oakland. Maybe 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.000 there's something there from a handicapping standpoint where if these 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.800 guys have you know, they're hitting the ball, not three 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:47.760 sixty with the home run. They're hitting the ball for 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:51.240 twenty with the home run. How they how they perform? Uh, 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:54.800 and that that ballparks awful. I can hardly wait till 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:57.320 we's see it go. And it's by the way, the 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:01.240 game experience, it's like on the road, the road to 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:04.880 the airport. It's just awful, just horrible. By the way, 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:09.160 there was a cat, a feral cat infestation during the pandemic. 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.360 Did you hear about this? So there's no I didn't 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.560 hear about Oh yeah, no, no, you can't make this up. 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:18.479 Like during the pandemic, the stadium, obviously empty, was overrun 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.440 with feral cats. And because it's the Bay Area, this 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:23.720 is like the most Bay Area story ever. They're like 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.080 looking for people to adopt the cats. They won't do anything, 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.120 they won't do anything bad to the cats. It's phenomenal. 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:34.600 I love it. Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. Alright, maybe they're 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:36.840 going to Vegas. Maybe they're gonna come to come to 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:41.480 your city. Maybe maybe. Indeed, all right, run line, uh 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.880 de facto power sort of ranking who are the best 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.080 teams on the run line. Remember as a favorite, they're 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.040 giving a run and a half as a dog. They're 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:52.320 getting a run and a half. The Baltimore Orioles up 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.560 eighteen units ish on the run line their number one, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:00.720 the Dodgers and Mets right after that, by way, interestingly 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.600 with the Texas Rangers, another strange team that ends up 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:07.120 in the top five in terms of run line. So 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:09.960 again check your one run records. That might have a 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:11.879 lot to do with all of that. And then at 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.040 the bottom some of the usual suspects. Washington is down 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.280 twenty units on the run line. Basically when they get beat, 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:22.000 they get beat bad. Kansas City down fifteen units. Milwaukee's 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.880 actually in there on the run line. Uh, they're They're 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:26.720 in the in the top three in terms of the 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:30.439 worst on the run line, Toronto and Oakland rounding out Toronto, Oakland, 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:32.600 Cincinnati running up the top six. Those are by far 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.639 of the six worst on the run line. Um, what 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.480 what of that is interesting to you? And mainly with Baltimore, 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.320 what I want to ask you is would you bet 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.960 them twenty five to one to make the postseason right 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:48.080 now they're only two games out of a wild card. No, 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:50.880 I wouldn't. I wouldn't beat him. I I have them 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:56.879 at seventy three point two wins, which puts him thirteen 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.920 wins off of Tampa Bay, which I have Tampa Bay. 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:04.239 Adding that interestingly enough that the third wild card, all 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.080 the wild cards, according to my model, are gonna come 0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:09.480 from the A L. East. I call it the A 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.879 L Beast. It's it's quite the quite the division, and 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:17.200 the closest team that's gonna challenge the Rays would be, 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.760 by by my projections, the Seattle Mariners. I have them 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.720 at eighty five point six wins. So I I don't think. 0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:25.800 I mean, Baltimore is a feel good story. They're doing 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:27.919 a lot of good things there, but they've got to 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.119 play in that division. That division is really tough. Yankees, 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.840 Blue Jay's, Red Sox Raise, They're all really good teams, 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:38.080 good pitching, good hitting, and uh, I just think that's 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.119 kind of the downfall. I think if you put Baltimore 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:43.120 in the Central Division, they maybe maybe you gotta play there, 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:44.640 But just the fact that they've got to they gotta 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.680 go mount on a manto against good teams in their division. 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:49.760 That's a tough thing. You know. It's a good point. 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.760 By the way, anything to Milwaukee and Toronto being so 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.360 bad on the run line or is that just kind 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.919 of random? I think it's right. I think it's random. 0:18:57.960 --> 0:18:59.840 I you know, I really like this Brewers team when 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.880 they get back to full health or Woodruff, Peralta and Burns. 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.800 I think that, you know, the key is is is 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:08.840 can they stay healthy? Can the back end of that 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.080 bullpen stay healthy? But I think if they if they do, 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:15.639 I think they'll be Okay, Gil, Okay, let's go to uh. 0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:18.400 This is real quick starting pitcher money. I don't think 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:20.480 there's a whole bunch to this in many cases, but 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.200 we like to just go through it. It's starting pitchers 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.640 when they have taken the hill and you have been 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.399 on the team behind them. What have who have been 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.960 the most profitable starting pitchers in all of baseball this year? 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:37.800 Martin Perez? Mark is our old friend Martin Perez. The 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:43.040 Rangers are thirteen and four final scores right final outcomes 0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.400 in games that he's started. So part of that's gonna 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:47.600 be Perez. Part of it inevitably has nothing to do 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:50.440 with Perez. But the Rangers are thirteen and four. You'd 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.960 be up over nine and a half units betting Rangers 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.800 games blindly when Perez takes the hill. Gilbert for the 0:19:56.840 --> 0:20:01.160 Mariners is second, Joe must Grow for the Padre Raises third, 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:05.920 and then Tonight's starter for the reds Ashcraft. Some houpis 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.960 in the top five. So you never know with these 0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:12.920 things anyway, Yeah, they're they're you know that Perez is 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.919 a feel good story. And I've been critical on the 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.800 past of Martin Perez, but I can say that I 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:21.399 have him better than average right now. He's just a 0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:23.840 little bit better than average, five percent better than average, 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:27.119 but he's better than average. So although he made the 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:29.480