Speaker 1: Check it down Man Tuesday morning, July two. It is
Speaker 1: the Beating of the Book podcast, Kill Alexander. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much for listening today to the Q two MLB
Speaker 1: Derivatives podcast. This is one of these podcasts we do
Speaker 1: Q one Q two through uh Q one, Q two,
Speaker 1: Q three, I should say derivatives MLBS betting podcast. We've
Speaker 1: done them for years, my guest and I for a decade.
Speaker 1: We've done these, but in the last couple of years
Speaker 1: we shifted over from the podcast side of Beating the
Speaker 1: Book and just did it on a numbers game on
Speaker 1: the radio side. We're back on the podcast format now
Speaker 1: with a Q two. You know who I'm talking about,
Speaker 1: Mark Borcher, Basse Winner. How you doing Mark? Yo? This
Speaker 1: is so exciting for me. It brings back a memory
Speaker 1: of being the first guests on your show, and I
Speaker 1: really am proud of that. I've because you've gotten so
Speaker 1: good and so big in the industry and I can
Speaker 1: always say, well, I was the first guest on gil show.
Speaker 1: But it's it's so cool because I remember that show
Speaker 1: and like I was on my cell phone and the
Speaker 1: audio it was it was popping and and you know,
Speaker 1: the phone was cuting in and out, so I think
Speaker 1: we'll have better audio this time. That was probably twenty eleven,
Speaker 1: mark if I'm if I'm eleven, like legitimately, legitimately before
Speaker 1: most human beings on earth at a podcast, and now
Speaker 1: everybody of course has one. Yeah, it's it's so true.
Speaker 1: It's you know, I wonder, like, how how how much
Speaker 1: time do people have to listen to all these podcasts?
Speaker 1: We met in a forum, we won't say which. We
Speaker 1: met in a forum, and we were not allowed to
Speaker 1: interact in a solicitation kind of way. So I guess
Speaker 1: I I liked you so much or all right, you
Speaker 1: resonated with me in your baseball knowledge so much that
Speaker 1: I had the audacity to ask for your phone number
Speaker 1: off so we could talk off air, and it was
Speaker 1: quickly reprimanded. I oh yeah, we got scolded. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: that's right, And here we are, more than a decade later.
Speaker 1: So here's how this works. It's been great, it's been
Speaker 1: great being I'm just personally, I just wanted to take
Speaker 1: this opportunity to say how how excited I am to
Speaker 1: do your show every day. I love being on a
Speaker 1: guest on your show and I love doing the podcast.
Speaker 1: So this is exciting for me. Dude. I love having
Speaker 1: you man, you have you have been a staple throughout Um. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think what other things. Oh, others have
Speaker 1: blamed me for you trying to hire other people at
Speaker 1: your business because they know we're associated, and of course
Speaker 1: I have nothing to do with any of that. That's
Speaker 1: so funny, man. Okay, that's a great story. That's a
Speaker 1: great story. Oh isn't it though? Okay, So for those
Speaker 1: who forgot, this is how we do this. This is
Speaker 1: essentially this whole exercise is uh an attempt to see
Speaker 1: what in the first half. Since we're Q two and
Speaker 1: I get it, we're a little past the halfway more
Speaker 1: all the better. What what has happened betting wise in
Speaker 1: the first half of the season that is predictive for
Speaker 1: us perhaps when betting moving forward. A lot of what
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about ultimately isn't predictive. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: just a narrative like, oh, look, this has happened, but
Speaker 1: there's no rhyme or reason to it, and it's unlikely
Speaker 1: to sustain. But there is gonna be some insights of
Speaker 1: of things that we believe will be predictive and it's
Speaker 1: up to you, also, the listener, to determine what is predictive,
Speaker 1: but what is narrative. And it's very simple. It's good.
Speaker 1: We're just gonna go through the best money line teams again,
Speaker 1: Bizarro exercise. If you're betting them, to win a unit
Speaker 1: as a favorite, if you're risking a unit as a dog,
Speaker 1: home road splits on those run lines. Then we'll do
Speaker 1: starting pitchers, we'll do umpires, will do first five innings,
Speaker 1: and we'll do first innings, which is super proprietary. That's
Speaker 1: the gig. You're ready, Yeah, let's go, all right, let's
Speaker 1: do it. Let's start with the most widely available. These
Speaker 1: are the money line numbers. You can get them at
Speaker 1: sites like covers dot com. Very simple to look these up.
Speaker 1: The number one. Now, Mark and I did a we
Speaker 1: did a radio o version of this last week, and
Speaker 1: so the answers to these questions have somewhat shifted the
Speaker 1: number one money line team in baseball this year. Mark,
Speaker 1: if you're betting them again, Bizarro exercise, to win a
Speaker 1: unit as a favorite, to risk a unit as a dog.
Speaker 1: Let's say you just beat them every single game. I
Speaker 1: get it, it's not reality, but if you did, who
Speaker 1: has been the most profitable team in baseball to this moment, sir, Well,
Speaker 1: the numbers I'm looking out of the Yankees there, you
Speaker 1: might have it. You might be looking at different numbers.
Speaker 1: So it depends on how you bet them. I've got
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Orioles at number one, up fourteen point one
Speaker 1: units on the season, forty three and forty four. Now
Speaker 1: the Orioles, I got them at fourteen point one units.
Speaker 1: I have the Yankees. And so that's that's the difference
Speaker 1: between risk and UH. I think what they do is
Speaker 1: to risk, to risk a flat amount to win. And
Speaker 1: then I'm looking at stat Fox and stat Fox says, well,
Speaker 1: you got you know, the Yankees. You gotta risk whatever
Speaker 1: today minus three hundred, there's a three units to win one.
Speaker 1: Just because of that is an interesting aside, UH, covers
Speaker 1: does it risk one to win whatever? And right? So
Speaker 1: Covers would do in that case risk one unit to
Speaker 1: win point three three units? Right? Exactly? Right? Sure? So
Speaker 1: got it? Yeah, So it shakes out, and I think
Speaker 1: it's in my opinion, it's it's not that big of
Speaker 1: a deal either way. But the way I do it
Speaker 1: when I send out my plays and stuff is to
Speaker 1: risk because this is a really good point, I think,
Speaker 1: because I think it gives you a better return on
Speaker 1: those underdog plays and that bears out. And when we're
Speaker 1: looking at these standings, it's it's sure is sure is true?
Speaker 1: And I think that that's hard to something that that
Speaker 1: I'd like to try to get a decent return on underdogs,
Speaker 1: and it's hard. It's sometimes it's so hard to play
Speaker 1: these underdogs. Gil. You well, you and I were talking earlier,
Speaker 1: you on the show today on a numbers game. We
Speaker 1: were talking at Visa and we're doing this MLB betting pentathlon,
Speaker 1: right five picks in a spour day span, uh, to
Speaker 1: determine who is the greatest baseball better who's ever walked
Speaker 1: the to the earth as as I like to say.
Speaker 1: And yeah, we were we were just sort of talking
Speaker 1: about how the today's slate, for instance, Boy, it's tough
Speaker 1: to play any of these dogs today. It is so difficult,
Speaker 1: especially the big ones. But but getting back to the
Speaker 1: to the point on the so you and I have
Speaker 1: always done it through this through the years, risking to
Speaker 1: win a unit or as a favorite, risking above a
Speaker 1: unit to win a unit, risking a unit to win
Speaker 1: more than a unit as a dog. But it's the
Speaker 1: point being with the team's Baltimore, New York, whatever order
Speaker 1: you have them in, just think about again for baseball betters, again,
Speaker 1: just a sort of you know, uh, brief reminder to
Speaker 1: those who might be new, you know, the Yankees for
Speaker 1: them to be a top two winner to this point
Speaker 1: for major League baseball betters, think about how amazing that is.
Speaker 1: The two teams have gotten their completely different ways. Right.
Speaker 1: Baltimore has been a dog so many times or a
Speaker 1: slight favorite, and it makes sense with their overperforming forty
Speaker 1: three and forty four and your standings, how they would
Speaker 1: be either the most profitable or second most profitable to
Speaker 1: be in baseball. But the Yankees have overcome that juice
Speaker 1: mark time and time again to get there, which is
Speaker 1: just incredible. Right, It's amazing, and and we still I
Speaker 1: could find a reason today to not bet on the Yankees.
Speaker 1: I want to hear the guy who who wants to
Speaker 1: who wants to put money on the Reds. I want
Speaker 1: to hear that handicap, And I'm not trying to be
Speaker 1: smart about it is. Yeah, I'd like to hear the
Speaker 1: other side. Yeah, I didn't bet the Yankees, to be clear,
Speaker 1: but I couldn't think of a reason why to bet
Speaker 1: on Ashcraft and the reds um and, by the way,
Speaker 1: the Yankees. And this was pointed out by Will Hill,
Speaker 1: who works at VISA who also does the New York
Speaker 1: City cast. He has to cover local New York teams,
Speaker 1: and he was talking about the Yankees. And what's even
Speaker 1: more incredible, I think is a great point is they
Speaker 1: have so many holes too that could be improved. Not
Speaker 1: pitching necessarily, but kinder fore left of they roll him
Speaker 1: out every days, has been good defensively, he hasn't been
Speaker 1: good offensively. Joey Gallo probably shouldn't even be in a lineup.
Speaker 1: And yet right like, there's places you could still improve
Speaker 1: that team. I think so, oh absolutely Gallo, Gallo and
Speaker 1: and Felife are are two really good examples. So those
Speaker 1: that's those are good points. Gill. Yeah, Mets, by the way,
Speaker 1: third most profitable one inline team Houston fourth. You might
Speaker 1: have those in different orders as well, but those are
Speaker 1: the four teams by far on top of the Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball money line standings. Again, Bizarro exercise, you're Bednham
Speaker 1: every day, whether it's a favorite or a dog the
Speaker 1: biggest hemorrhaging team. Same exercise would be I've got the Angels, guil, Oh,
Speaker 1: you do, okay, so I have it. So again, it's
Speaker 1: it's really tight between the A's, the Angels, and the Nationals.
Speaker 1: Those are the worst three by far, correct, Yeah, those
Speaker 1: are the worst three by far by The one thing
Speaker 1: that's interesting of this group, Gil is the Nationals. I
Speaker 1: think I think that their offense is pretty good. You know,
Speaker 1: if you look at their their play discipline stats their
Speaker 1: fourth in baseball on BB divided by K, which is
Speaker 1: an important out offensively to me. The pitching is not
Speaker 1: so good, but maybe it's a team to look at
Speaker 1: playing team totals over one of the things. I looked
Speaker 1: at these stats the other day, and everybody but one
Speaker 1: one player is down on their is so power off
Speaker 1: of the National's offense, and so I think that's that's
Speaker 1: something that's going to regress to the good Gil. Okay,
Speaker 1: So I guess at the bottom, I guess the noteworthy team, right,
Speaker 1: The Nationals stink and the standings thirty eight, as do
Speaker 1: the Athletic But I mean, is there a more disappointing team? Obviously,
Speaker 1: the betting market, and what we're talking about reflects that
Speaker 1: than the Angels. I mean horrific, right. I have them
Speaker 1: down almost eighteen units on the season, thirty eight and
Speaker 1: forty nine, arguably with the two best players in baseball
Speaker 1: and Trout Notani, and they still can't get it together.
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? Gil? And I was one of the
Speaker 1: guys who was somewhat bullish on the on the Angels.
Speaker 1: I kind of liked them outside chance of winning that
Speaker 1: a l West. But if you would have told me
Speaker 1: that you would have gotten a Tonny with with an
Speaker 1: e r A of two point four four, a base
Speaker 1: winner e r a of two point four four, I
Speaker 1: would have been like, man, that team is gonna be
Speaker 1: right in the thickest things. They sure are. They sure
Speaker 1: are not. By the way, that's another team tonight. Right again,
Speaker 1: we're doing this on a Tuesday, so forgive this part
Speaker 1: won't like sort of stand the test of time. But
Speaker 1: they're a home dog with cinder guard on the hill
Speaker 1: today and not a very big one against the Astros.
Speaker 1: I believe it is. I can't get to play the
Speaker 1: Angels price. I just can't get there. Yeah, Well, the
Speaker 1: only thing is is Alvarez is out of the lineup,
Speaker 1: right that that makes a big difference synder Guard. And
Speaker 1: I will admit because I went on your show and
Speaker 1: I said, we'll watch out for synder Guard. He could
Speaker 1: be an outside chance to win the cy Young. And
Speaker 1: he's been terribly. He has not been the Noah synder
Speaker 1: Guard of old, that's for sure. But some of his
Speaker 1: numbers are okay, he's kind of survived. But I just
Speaker 1: I can't bet him. I can't even bet him with
Speaker 1: with the alvare is out of the lineup. By the way,
Speaker 1: for the podcast audience, Mark is being super humble because
Speaker 1: he called Robbie ray And a a hundred to one to
Speaker 1: win the cy Young last year. In July, he had
Speaker 1: the yang Key's way over their season win total this
Speaker 1: year at nine. Just some of his recent calls, um
Speaker 1: so when he's self deprecating, know that there is uh,
Speaker 1: there's genius behind it as well. By the way, I'll
Speaker 1: just I'll just give you the home road splits the
Speaker 1: best home roads, and I'm just curious. I'll just ask
Speaker 1: the simple question, what of this do you think is meaningful?
Speaker 1: What is sustainable? What is just random? Baltimore most of
Speaker 1: their money when is at home. Close to twelve units
Speaker 1: of their winds have been at home at Camden Yards Yankees,
Speaker 1: most of theirs at home. Those are the two best
Speaker 1: home money line teams in baseball. Baltimore and the Yankees
Speaker 1: also the two best overall. They're the two best at home,
Speaker 1: the two worst at home the Oakland A's, followed by
Speaker 1: the Washington Nationals. You know, the White Sox would be
Speaker 1: a distant third at home. That was the one we
Speaker 1: seized upon last time. The White Sox are super bad
Speaker 1: at home for betters, and they're actually up about five
Speaker 1: units on the road. And we were talking about this
Speaker 1: and and I'll just sort of get you to repeat that.
Speaker 1: You think that's completely random, right about the White Sox
Speaker 1: home road splits, Yes, Skill, I think that's a random stat.
Speaker 1: If somebody can give me an explanation for for that disparity,
Speaker 1: please tell me, because I'd be dying to find out.
Speaker 1: And again, I'm not trying to be smart. I just
Speaker 1: can't find an explanation. Yeah, other than just just pure
Speaker 1: variants on that gil, I would agree and then away
Speaker 1: in case anyone's interested. The Padres are actually the most
Speaker 1: profitable team on the road. About eight and a half
Speaker 1: units if you bet them every single time. Favorite or
Speaker 1: dog on the road, Houston I have his number two,
Speaker 1: and I have the Mets is number three. And then
Speaker 1: in terms of that that just road records. And again with
Speaker 1: with San Diego, Houston and the Mets. Part of the
Speaker 1: explanation is they're just good at baseball generally speaking. And
Speaker 1: then the worst teams on the road, the Angels are
Speaker 1: by far the world on the road, so at least
Speaker 1: half of their loss comes on the road when you
Speaker 1: bet the Angels, and it's pretty evenly split. Actually home
Speaker 1: in road, the Angels just stink both places. And then
Speaker 1: after that it's you know, the poopoo platter of the
Speaker 1: Reds and the Rockies on the road. The Rockies, of course,
Speaker 1: we I think we should seize on that. The Rockies,
Speaker 1: who are you know, down two and a half units
Speaker 1: roughly on the season and the money line exercise up
Speaker 1: close to four units at home, down a little more
Speaker 1: than six units on the road. That is very Rockies esque,
Speaker 1: isn't it. Yeah? And if you look at the Rockies, Uh,
Speaker 1: this has been a consistent thing that's happened over the
Speaker 1: years since uh two thou nineteen so this is two
Speaker 1: one and this year they're eighty three and one nine
Speaker 1: straight up on the road. So you know, that's that's
Speaker 1: pretty amazing. And I think that there's something to it.
Speaker 1: I I just don't think that the hitters can adjust
Speaker 1: from the altitude that I think it takes them a
Speaker 1: while to adjust and and it's it's amazing. But every
Speaker 1: year you see that, and then I'm guilty of it.
Speaker 1: I don't see the opportunity to bet against them on
Speaker 1: the road enough in my opinion. That's so that's is
Speaker 1: a great point for those of us have been doing
Speaker 1: that for years. Mark, It's such a great point what
Speaker 1: you just said, which is we can describe these things
Speaker 1: in a macro way, right, like we know this Rockies
Speaker 1: thing to be a truism tried in true year after year,
Speaker 1: but in our daily assessment of value on individual game lines,
Speaker 1: it just never gets there for us. So then we
Speaker 1: view it in the rear view and we're like, oh,
Speaker 1: we missed this massive opportunity again, what's wrong with us?
Speaker 1: But sometimes it's just not at clear on a daily basis,
Speaker 1: yet incrementally over time it manifests. By the way, just
Speaker 1: in case, and I'll ask you again, is there anything
Speaker 1: to this? The biggest discrepancy on the money line, and
Speaker 1: then we'll go to run line, the biggest discrepancy on
Speaker 1: the on the on the money line, home road splits
Speaker 1: the Oakland Athletics we just talked about, we're one of
Speaker 1: the three worst teams period in baseball. Beending on the
Speaker 1: money line makes sense. They suck their twenty nine and
Speaker 1: fifty nine, but eighteen and a half of their units
Speaker 1: lost ore are at home. They're actually up a half
Speaker 1: unit on the road. Do you make anything of that? Now?
Speaker 1: It's it's it's hard to do to make anything and
Speaker 1: that The only thing I can think of on that
Speaker 1: is the park is such a cavern there, so maybe
Speaker 1: they don't have you know, maybe they don't have the
Speaker 1: real power bats uh to to be successful in that
Speaker 1: big cavern park. But then when they go to more
Speaker 1: of a neutral park, they can get some home runs, uh,
Speaker 1: their their offense can get some more home runs. It's
Speaker 1: an interesting question, being an interesting sort to see how
Speaker 1: really powerful teams do when they go to Oakland. Maybe
Speaker 1: there's something there from a handicapping standpoint where if these
Speaker 1: guys have you know, they're hitting the ball, not three
Speaker 1: sixty with the home run. They're hitting the ball for
Speaker 1: twenty with the home run. How they how they perform? Uh,
Speaker 1: and that that ballparks awful. I can hardly wait till
Speaker 1: we's see it go. And it's by the way, the
Speaker 1: game experience, it's like on the road, the road to
Speaker 1: the airport. It's just awful, just horrible. By the way,
Speaker 1: there was a cat, a feral cat infestation during the pandemic.
Speaker 1: Did you hear about this? So there's no I didn't
Speaker 1: hear about Oh yeah, no, no, you can't make this up.
Speaker 1: Like during the pandemic, the stadium, obviously empty, was overrun
Speaker 1: with feral cats. And because it's the Bay Area, this
Speaker 1: is like the most Bay Area story ever. They're like
Speaker 1: looking for people to adopt the cats. They won't do anything,
Speaker 1: they won't do anything bad to the cats. It's phenomenal.
Speaker 1: I love it. Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. Alright, maybe they're
Speaker 1: going to Vegas. Maybe they're gonna come to come to
Speaker 1: your city. Maybe maybe. Indeed, all right, run line, uh
Speaker 1: de facto power sort of ranking who are the best
Speaker 1: teams on the run line. Remember as a favorite, they're
Speaker 1: giving a run and a half as a dog. They're
Speaker 1: getting a run and a half. The Baltimore Orioles up
Speaker 1: eighteen units ish on the run line their number one,
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and Mets right after that, by way, interestingly
Speaker 1: with the Texas Rangers, another strange team that ends up
Speaker 1: in the top five in terms of run line. So
Speaker 1: again check your one run records. That might have a
Speaker 1: lot to do with all of that. And then at
Speaker 1: the bottom some of the usual suspects. Washington is down
Speaker 1: twenty units on the run line. Basically when they get beat,
Speaker 1: they get beat bad. Kansas City down fifteen units. Milwaukee's
Speaker 1: actually in there on the run line. Uh, they're They're
Speaker 1: in the in the top three in terms of the
Speaker 1: worst on the run line, Toronto and Oakland rounding out Toronto, Oakland,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati running up the top six. Those are by far
Speaker 1: of the six worst on the run line. Um, what
Speaker 1: what of that is interesting to you? And mainly with Baltimore,
Speaker 1: what I want to ask you is would you bet
Speaker 1: them twenty five to one to make the postseason right
Speaker 1: now they're only two games out of a wild card. No,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I wouldn't beat him. I I have them
Speaker 1: at seventy three point two wins, which puts him thirteen
Speaker 1: wins off of Tampa Bay, which I have Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Adding that interestingly enough that the third wild card, all
Speaker 1: the wild cards, according to my model, are gonna come
Speaker 1: from the A L. East. I call it the A
Speaker 1: L Beast. It's it's quite the quite the division, and
Speaker 1: the closest team that's gonna challenge the Rays would be,
Speaker 1: by by my projections, the Seattle Mariners. I have them
Speaker 1: at eighty five point six wins. So I I don't think.
Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore is a feel good story. They're doing
Speaker 1: a lot of good things there, but they've got to
Speaker 1: play in that division. That division is really tough. Yankees,
Speaker 1: Blue Jay's, Red Sox Raise, They're all really good teams,
Speaker 1: good pitching, good hitting, and uh, I just think that's
Speaker 1: kind of the downfall. I think if you put Baltimore
Speaker 1: in the Central Division, they maybe maybe you gotta play there,
Speaker 1: But just the fact that they've got to they gotta
Speaker 1: go mount on a manto against good teams in their division.
Speaker 1: That's a tough thing. You know. It's a good point.
Speaker 1: By the way, anything to Milwaukee and Toronto being so
Speaker 1: bad on the run line or is that just kind
Speaker 1: of random? I think it's right. I think it's random.
Speaker 1: I you know, I really like this Brewers team when
Speaker 1: they get back to full health or Woodruff, Peralta and Burns.
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, the key is is is
Speaker 1: can they stay healthy? Can the back end of that
Speaker 1: bullpen stay healthy? But I think if they if they do,
Speaker 1: I think they'll be Okay, Gil, Okay, let's go to uh.
Speaker 1: This is real quick starting pitcher money. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's a whole bunch to this in many cases, but
Speaker 1: we like to just go through it. It's starting pitchers
Speaker 1: when they have taken the hill and you have been
Speaker 1: on the team behind them. What have who have been
Speaker 1: the most profitable starting pitchers in all of baseball this year?
Speaker 1: Martin Perez? Mark is our old friend Martin Perez. The
Speaker 1: Rangers are thirteen and four final scores right final outcomes
Speaker 1: in games that he's started. So part of that's gonna
Speaker 1: be Perez. Part of it inevitably has nothing to do
Speaker 1: with Perez. But the Rangers are thirteen and four. You'd
Speaker 1: be up over nine and a half units betting Rangers
Speaker 1: games blindly when Perez takes the hill. Gilbert for the
Speaker 1: Mariners is second, Joe must Grow for the Padre Raises third,
Speaker 1: and then Tonight's starter for the reds Ashcraft. Some houpis
Speaker 1: in the top five. So you never know with these
Speaker 1: things anyway, Yeah, they're they're you know that Perez is
Speaker 1: a feel good story. And I've been critical on the
Speaker 1: past of Martin Perez, but I can say that I
Speaker 1: have him better than average right now. He's just a
Speaker 1: little bit better than average, five percent better than average,
Speaker 1: but he's better than average. So although he made the
Speaker 1: All Star Team, and that's to me, the way they
Speaker 1: select the All Star teams kind of not not perfect,
Speaker 1: I guess, but he deserves the All Star Team more
Speaker 1: than Paul Blackburn deserves the All Star degree. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: it's very good. But again, with a lot of these,
Speaker 1: you're like, you know, some of it means something. I
Speaker 1: don't know. There's a bunch to read into here, like
Speaker 1: Tony Gonsolin, for instance, who has an impeccable record with
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, a perfect record. His personal win loss Dodgers
Speaker 1: are thirteen and three. Ultimately, when he's on the hill,
Speaker 1: you'd only be up four point two units. So he's
Speaker 1: eleventh most profitable um by the way at the bottom,
Speaker 1: just in in case anyone's curious, if you go down
Speaker 1: to like the the worst of these, the one eighties
Speaker 1: six and dead last picture. In terms of when he
Speaker 1: has started for his team, whose hemorrhage the most money,
Speaker 1: it's a toss up between Frankie Mantas of the A's
Speaker 1: and Patrick Corbin of the Nationals, both of whom have
Speaker 1: lost you over ten units this year backing their respective
Speaker 1: teams Oakland and Washington three and fourteen in Montas and
Speaker 1: Corbin's respective starts. Now with Corban, that's pretty much expected. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't I have Patrick Corbin about
Speaker 1: average and that's better, That's right. I'm sorry. Yeah, Yeah.
Speaker 1: The one thing that's that's interesting about about Montes is
Speaker 1: Montes is a good picture. So, like, I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe these people have bet that we're electing
Speaker 1: people to the All Star Game, bet on Mantas, and
Speaker 1: they're so pissed that they put Blackburn in instead of Montask.
Speaker 1: He should he should get in as an be four Blackburn, right,
Speaker 1: you know, Look, I would generally I don't know about
Speaker 1: this year, but yeah, I mean, look a lot of
Speaker 1: these when we go through these pictures, much like with
Speaker 1: the teams, we're just talking about these. The the bottom
Speaker 1: of these pictures stats typically, although not this year, really
Speaker 1: will always feature some you know starter that's like minus
Speaker 1: two hundred every night out that just has a bad
Speaker 1: first quarter or half of the season, like Kershaw has
Speaker 1: been at the bottom of this list before. As I
Speaker 1: recall now it's Montas, Corbin, Dunning, Green, I guess Snell
Speaker 1: where the padres were one in eight, you know when
Speaker 1: when he was starting. So anyway, that's just whatever that is.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the umps because this is this is
Speaker 1: something you have historical stats on. So this is really
Speaker 1: good for betters, particularly when you're betting totals. Uh, there
Speaker 1: are certain umpires who tried and true through the years,
Speaker 1: will show a propensity for having a really small strike
Speaker 1: zone which could lead to big totals, or a very
Speaker 1: wide one which could lead logically to very low ones.
Speaker 1: Now I'll give you what the numbers are this year,
Speaker 1: and you'll tell us which of these from an over
Speaker 1: and understand point, Mark is uh sort of jibes with
Speaker 1: your and we'll do it with a minimum number of
Speaker 1: games of five behind home plate. But the but the
Speaker 1: most reliable over umpires in baseball thus far this year,
Speaker 1: Nick Marley five out of five behind home plate over games,
Speaker 1: Hunter Wendel Steat six of seven have gone over when
Speaker 1: he's called balls and strikes. Brian Knight, not Brian McKnight, Mark,
Speaker 1: Brian Knight five of six. I'd saying it wasn't Brian
Speaker 1: McKnight because we'd have to start back at one if
Speaker 1: it was. Hell. You know, I've always questioned the math
Speaker 1: of that song or the puzzle of that song. Let
Speaker 1: me just go through it real quick. Since you bring
Speaker 1: it up, Mark, I don't know if I brought it
Speaker 1: up or you brought up but one? Who was it? Uh? Uh? One?
Speaker 1: You're like a dream come You're like a dream come
Speaker 1: true too. I want to be with you. Three girl,
Speaker 1: like girl. It's playing to see that you're the only
Speaker 1: one for me. Four repeat steps one, two, three, five,
Speaker 1: make you fall in love with me. You never get
Speaker 1: to the five if you repeat three. Mark, that's true.
Speaker 1: You know I never thought about it that deeply, but
Speaker 1: I guess with your background sometimes maybe you have to
Speaker 1: sorry to here's this guy really into hip hop and
Speaker 1: analytical mind Only that would come from you thank you.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna send a strongly worded email to Brian McKnight. Anyway,
Speaker 1: the umpire Brian Knight five of six behind o Blate over,
Speaker 1: Todd Tishner five of six behind home plate over. And
Speaker 1: then you have Chris Guccio and he's seven of nine
Speaker 1: over Jeremy Reacts six of eight over a long with
Speaker 1: Alfonso Marquez and Chris Siegal anyway, we could go on
Speaker 1: and on. There's some five of sevens like Doug Innings
Speaker 1: who have come up in the past. Any Daniel Bellino
Speaker 1: seven of ten, and when Moscoso seven of ten of
Speaker 1: gon over any sort of historical jibing corroborations with what's
Speaker 1: going on this year. Yeah, this one's really good because
Speaker 1: Alfonso Marquez is the number one over umpire based on
Speaker 1: my chart, and he has he's got a run suppression
Speaker 1: or runs a loud number nine percent nine point three
Speaker 1: percent greater than an average umpire. So he's a one
Speaker 1: or nine point three and that's fairly significant. If you
Speaker 1: add ten percent runs to a nine total, you're going
Speaker 1: with ten. And so if you have the game priced
Speaker 1: at nine and Marquez is in there, you can effectively
Speaker 1: one's very significant and I've always looked for him, and
Speaker 1: it's in the model that I that I have these umpires,
Speaker 1: but that that's that's the one that really bears out.
Speaker 1: He's over, and he's over in the chart guild. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so over historically and then six of eight, as we
Speaker 1: mentioned this year, behind home playoff gone over. And it
Speaker 1: is so important, by the way, for those wondering, like
Speaker 1: where can you find umpires? Assignments States sites, States sites
Speaker 1: like stat Fox list which umpires are behind home played
Speaker 1: every day. Obviously the crew rotates on a day to
Speaker 1: day basis, but you can find out who's behind home plate.
Speaker 1: And I'm just taking a game that I bet on yesterday.
Speaker 1: I bet on the under in the Diamondbacks Giants game.
Speaker 1: It was under eight. It ended up four to three
Speaker 1: diamond Backs. Typical typical game mark where it's like I
Speaker 1: had no business losing. Then I had no business winning
Speaker 1: than somehow I won. You know, it's just like you're
Speaker 1: like baseball happened to that bet. But the point was
Speaker 1: is that and I can't remember who was behind home
Speaker 1: plate last night in that game. That strike zone was
Speaker 1: a thimble. It was a thimble. But the one thing
Speaker 1: I gave him credit for was he was super consistent
Speaker 1: with it. He never strayed from it, so he wasn't
Speaker 1: giving any of the pictures any borderline calls. And so
Speaker 1: the fact that we were still able to hit the
Speaker 1: under with that was a was a minor miracle yesterday
Speaker 1: in that game. And I yet, I think you you
Speaker 1: make a really good point um in in that you
Speaker 1: didn't know who the umpire was before the game. And unfortunately,
Speaker 1: like when we're handicapping, you know, I think you do
Speaker 1: it really early in the morning. I do it overnight.
Speaker 1: But that first game in the series, you're kind of
Speaker 1: going in there blind. So you were required to make
Speaker 1: a total in that game, and you played an under.
Speaker 1: It was a good play actually, And UH for me,
Speaker 1: the first game of the series is really hard to
Speaker 1: play the totals on because I don't know who the
Speaker 1: umpire is at least overnight, and that's such a critical
Speaker 1: UH factor component in the game projections. So I've got
Speaker 1: a really lack of total before I play a total
Speaker 1: in the first first game of the series game, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we were. We were was compulsory to do so in
Speaker 1: the in the pentathlon that we were doing so luckily
Speaker 1: got that one home. How about the unders. Let's go
Speaker 1: to under umps before we get off umpires again. These
Speaker 1: are from this year. Mark will tell us if any
Speaker 1: of these correct or any of these match historically. Quinn
Speaker 1: Walcott four or four, we're behind home plate this year.
Speaker 1: I've gone to the under again. We haven't broken this
Speaker 1: down based on ballpark, which is a missing element of this.
Speaker 1: But Brian Blakeney four or four under Andy Fletcher, eight
Speaker 1: of nine under Will Little seven of eight under Ed
Speaker 1: Hitcock's that name has come up before six of seven
Speaker 1: under Oh wait, I'm getting getting another Brian Knight reading.
Speaker 1: Is this a glitch in this? Oh no, throwout what
Speaker 1: we said about Brian Knight, because I don't know which
Speaker 1: is right anyway. Those are the big ones. Nate tomlins
Speaker 1: and six of eight um, Nestor Saha six of eight
Speaker 1: and Junior Valentine nine of twelve have gone under Zaro
Speaker 1: Diaz six of eight under Phil Couzy six of eight
Speaker 1: under Angel Hernandez nine of twelve under. Yeah, there's so
Speaker 1: there's a lot of variants, and that's what we're learning
Speaker 1: when we're going through these umpires. As far as you know,
Speaker 1: over under, because it's not just all about how the
Speaker 1: umpire calls on the zone. That's that's part of the
Speaker 1: part of the handicap though. But as far as my
Speaker 1: I'll just you know, tell you who my thought are
Speaker 1: my top three under umpires are. I've got Eston Brook,
Speaker 1: Miller and Doug Ettings. Those are the three under Yeah,
Speaker 1: those are those are the three umpires that I think
Speaker 1: or if I if if they come up on the
Speaker 1: game and I like the under, I'm gonna jump on that.
Speaker 1: Doug gettings five of seven under. We didn't get to him.
Speaker 1: He's there. Yeah, yeah, he's number two. He's number two
Speaker 1: on the chart. Gil. So from an under standpoint, so
Speaker 1: Doug Gettings to the under, and who do we say
Speaker 1: to the over? Alfonso Marquez? Alfonso Marquez? Yeah, okay, alright,
Speaker 1: so those are all widely available. Let's go to something
Speaker 1: that are they get a little tougher to find, and
Speaker 1: then we'll get to the super proprietary one. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about first five innings. A lot of people like to
Speaker 1: bet first fives obviously these days, and I used to
Speaker 1: keep track of these manually on my own. That was
Speaker 1: a pain in the butt. I don't have any time
Speaker 1: to do that thankfully. These days, thankfully sites like odds
Speaker 1: Shark do so they update these I think once a week.
Speaker 1: These are the best money line records first five, so
Speaker 1: exactly what we did with the money line full game
Speaker 1: moments ago. This is just what terms of the first five,
Speaker 1: and I've updated these of the last five days manually
Speaker 1: based on how these clubs have done since these were
Speaker 1: last updated. But for the best first five money line
Speaker 1: teams in baseball, the New York Metropolitans number one, you'd
Speaker 1: be up over thirteen units betting the Mets blindly on
Speaker 1: the first five this year, and that's without Jacob deGrom.
Speaker 1: Imagine their number one. Number two would be the Houston Astros.
Speaker 1: Houston Astros would have you up about twelve units betting
Speaker 1: first five blindly this year. By the way, these teams
Speaker 1: have continued to be good since the last asked us,
Speaker 1: Since the last odd Shark I'm I'm updating the numbers
Speaker 1: since then. But the Mets three one and one first
Speaker 1: five their last five games, the Astros three and one
Speaker 1: their last four. A new third place team is the Yankees.
Speaker 1: The Yankees have taken over from the Twins, who were
Speaker 1: the number three team. Now it's the Yankees number three,
Speaker 1: because Yankees have gone two oh and two over the
Speaker 1: last four. But the Yankees would have you up about
Speaker 1: eight plus units first five. So Mets Astros, Yankees. Nothing
Speaker 1: surprising there, right, Yeah, No, that that sounds pretty I
Speaker 1: mean that sounds pretty reasonable to me. I guess before
Speaker 1: the season we might have thought the Yankees was a
Speaker 1: little surprising maybe, but now we're so used to it.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Well, I wouldn't have bulls at you, right, No,
Speaker 1: everybody know, certainly not you? Who again it was one
Speaker 1: or no? What was the was the Yankees number? And
Speaker 1: you you had it? And I think more like Mark
Speaker 1: prot I gasped, audible audibly. How cute? Now? Um? Okay,
Speaker 1: worst first five? We have a new worst first five,
Speaker 1: the Colorado Rockies, who have gone oh four and one.
Speaker 1: Remember there can be pushes oh four and one of
Speaker 1: their last five. They are the new worst first five
Speaker 1: team in baseball, nearly costing you twenty units little over
Speaker 1: nineteen units down. If you've been betting the Rockies first
Speaker 1: five all year, and by the way, if you've been
Speaker 1: betting the Rockies first five blindly in every single game,
Speaker 1: you're probably doing something wrong. Uh, Tigers, I want to
Speaker 1: find that guy. Yeah, I really want to bet the
Speaker 1: Rockies first five, especially at home, um or maybe let's
Speaker 1: just say especially on the road when they're beats. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Tigers used to be the worst first five. There
Speaker 1: now the second worst first five because they've gone two
Speaker 1: and three in their last first five. Uh, Tigers are
Speaker 1: the second worst. Gnats are the third worst because the
Speaker 1: Gnats have lost four in a row now their last
Speaker 1: four on the first five, and the Reds are the
Speaker 1: fourth worst. So yeah, not surprising. Any of the first
Speaker 1: fives are not surprising at all. Now, Yeah, you know
Speaker 1: the Reds are somewhat interesting because that's utter green Londolo,
Speaker 1: even Ashcraft to a certain extent. I mean, these you
Speaker 1: don't have just and Castillo of course he was Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: I played the Rais the other day on Friday, and
Speaker 1: man and he he pitched up against McClanahan, and I
Speaker 1: thought Castillo was the better pitcher in that game. So
Speaker 1: you would think that that Reds like they'd win more
Speaker 1: five inning. Best they've got there, they're starting pitching is
Speaker 1: not awful, you know. Yeah, no, I agree, But do
Speaker 1: you do you get the sense? So we just went
Speaker 1: through first five, and earlier we did full game and
Speaker 1: full game. There's obviously much many more surprises bullpens are involved.
Speaker 1: Do you find yourself betting like this has always always
Speaker 1: been the thing the last four years? Like when you
Speaker 1: talk to baseball betters, right, a lot of people very
Speaker 1: casually answered like, oh, that's why I only bet first
Speaker 1: five because you know, it takes the bullpens out of it.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, for me, by the way, the
Speaker 1: straddles bigger. We should point that out. Yeah, yeah, that's
Speaker 1: a great point. Yeah, we should point that out. And
Speaker 1: and also just for me, just anecdotally, I don't bet
Speaker 1: baseball nearly as much as I used to, but it
Speaker 1: never really worked out that way for me despite all
Speaker 1: the bullpens. You know, misshoo Gas does it for you?
Speaker 1: You find yourself betting first five more or just not
Speaker 1: as much or just the same amount as you always
Speaker 1: used to, which is not a lot. I do it infrequently,
Speaker 1: which is more than I used to. I used to
Speaker 1: never do it. I think that like for me, I
Speaker 1: think part of the bullpen handicapping is is interesting to
Speaker 1: me and I love doing it. It's a lot of work,
Speaker 1: but I think that if you can handicap the game
Speaker 1: from the back to the front. And I think that
Speaker 1: for next year, I am getting good enough with bringing
Speaker 1: in data and Python programming that I think I can
Speaker 1: do this. It's just have a separate four innings and
Speaker 1: that's the last part of the game. I know Todd
Speaker 1: does a lot of that, and it's really there. It's
Speaker 1: an interesting listen when I wish and never gets on
Speaker 1: your show and talks about, you know how he plays
Speaker 1: the second half of the game. But I think that
Speaker 1: you have to split it up into into half, so
Speaker 1: the first five and the and the last the last four.
Speaker 1: But I think that you made such a good point.
Speaker 1: It's it's it might be the most important thing on
Speaker 1: why not to bet the five the first five inning
Speaker 1: lines until the Jews starts to come down. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's as good of a bet as as a
Speaker 1: full game, just because of that fact. I mean, over
Speaker 1: the course of it, if you're gonna put out you
Speaker 1: know s games over the course of the season, that
Speaker 1: adds up that that juice. So I think that just
Speaker 1: for for that main reason, it's probably good if you
Speaker 1: if you can handicap the back part of the game.
Speaker 1: To play the full game and then the other thing.
Speaker 1: The other thing too, And I think this is a
Speaker 1: good point, and I'm sorry to jump in, but at quick, um,
Speaker 1: you know when you're when you're doing overnight, when you're
Speaker 1: sending out plays overnight, I try to send him out
Speaker 1: like five pm Pacific time, you don't have five inning lines.
Speaker 1: So by the time it gets to having a five
Speaker 1: inning line, like you look at a game like like
Speaker 1: the Rays, and I put that out. I lost the game,
Speaker 1: but I put it out at minus one thirty eight, right,
Speaker 1: so by the time the morning came, it was up
Speaker 1: to minus one seventy eight, And so like, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: get that like the five inning inning lines a derivative
Speaker 1: of that full game at that point in time, which
Speaker 1: is early in the morning. So I wouldn't get that
Speaker 1: kind of line value overnight on that. So I think
Speaker 1: that's the juice. And then the fact that you can't
Speaker 1: bet the five inning games early at least not yet. Um,
Speaker 1: I think that those are two points to unless you
Speaker 1: have a conviction on a starting pitcher and you hate
Speaker 1: the bullpen. And sometimes I'll do that, like I played
Speaker 1: Nola a couple of times, uh this year because the
Speaker 1: Philadelphia bullpen was such a mess, and uh, I think
Speaker 1: I see her away from him personally. You know, all
Speaker 1: great points. Uh, it ain't as you know, and it
Speaker 1: at is. Let's put it this way. It shouldn't be
Speaker 1: as quick of an answer as some people making. Oh
Speaker 1: I just I just get rid of the bullpens and
Speaker 1: I play five. It's not quite that simple. Um okay,
Speaker 1: I mean there's there's pros and cons to both ways. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: and listen, you know, I also have to just throw
Speaker 1: this in just from a life perspective, because I don't
Speaker 1: think we ever talked about this because you're you're super
Speaker 1: into numbers. I'm super into it. You're you're I mean,
Speaker 1: you're immersed in it on a daily basis as as
Speaker 1: you always have been. We never just take a step
Speaker 1: back and talk about just human being experiences betting some
Speaker 1: of these things in baseball, particularly like with all the
Speaker 1: summers where I just been betting baseball games and I
Speaker 1: just think about, like the game I bet last night, Mark,
Speaker 1: They asked the excuse me, the Diamondbacks and the Giants
Speaker 1: total that game last is a nationally game lasted four hours, right,
Speaker 1: and the biggest part of that of course, was the
Speaker 1: bullpen right, and how many changes are made and how
Speaker 1: long that takes and how long the at bats were?
Speaker 1: And I just thought to myself afterwards, you know, I
Speaker 1: said this on the air this morning. My dad used
Speaker 1: to say this about crossword puzzles, and Sudoku's right used
Speaker 1: to say, it's a crossword puzzles. You learn English right
Speaker 1: when you do them, you you learn vocabulary. Sudoko, He's like,
Speaker 1: it's waste of time. You don't You don't really learn math, right.
Speaker 1: So for some reason I thought about that last night
Speaker 1: when I was watching the baseball game. It's funny how
Speaker 1: your dad like enters your brain with random comments, because
Speaker 1: I was like, okay, I should have I should have
Speaker 1: had no business losing. Then I had no business winning,
Speaker 1: and then somehow I won. And in the end, even
Speaker 1: though I won, I was like, where did those four hours?
Speaker 1: Do I get those back? So from a real life perspective,
Speaker 1: there are some people listening that will actually just be
Speaker 1: in their heads. It will just be like, you know what, dude,
Speaker 1: I just don't want to live through nine innings. I
Speaker 1: just don't want to. I don't want that experience. I
Speaker 1: just want to get out of it. Yeah, that's a
Speaker 1: really good point, and I would I wouldn't disagree with
Speaker 1: them because you know, they get the action and it's
Speaker 1: you know, arguable whether the full game is better or not,
Speaker 1: but there's if there's validity in that five inning game.
Speaker 1: But they definitely get part of their life back. And
Speaker 1: and it's it's weird because you know, we've been doing
Speaker 1: this a long time. We're analytical. We were around a
Speaker 1: lot of analytical guys and they always say, well, you
Speaker 1: shouldn't watch the games because it takes it takes it
Speaker 1: all out of you. And it sure does, but you
Speaker 1: can't not watch the game. It's it's I can't at least,
Speaker 1: you know, Yeah, it's not how I'm wired. It's not
Speaker 1: how you're wired. I was bring up Dr Bob. Dr
Speaker 1: Bob works as as a sort of sign of you know,
Speaker 1: he wears it as a sign of a badge of honor.
Speaker 1: I should say that he doesn't watch, and I think
Speaker 1: he watches more than he lets on. But I'd tell
Speaker 1: him all the time to go, Bob, I'm just not
Speaker 1: wired that way, like a can do a bet and
Speaker 1: just walk away like it doesn't work for me that way.
Speaker 1: So yes, like last night, if you had, you know,
Speaker 1: after the game, the first five would have barely hit
Speaker 1: on the under in the full game, barely hit on
Speaker 1: the under. Would I have rather have spent you know,
Speaker 1: done the first five of courts? Just a waste of time.
Speaker 1: So I get that from some people, And that's that's
Speaker 1: the nature of baseball betting. By the way, the other side, boy,
Speaker 1: or some of the some defense really bad in baseball now,
Speaker 1: like the Giants defense is horrible and there's like no
Speaker 1: arms in the outfield. It's horrible to watch. Um, okay,
Speaker 1: that's some bad You had some bad defense yesterday. That's
Speaker 1: that's really frustrating to watch. That's all right, let's go
Speaker 1: to the final one. This is first innings. This is
Speaker 1: proprietary only hear this on on the Beating of Book
Speaker 1: podcast or or perhaps on on a numbers game. People
Speaker 1: like Mark have databases where they can call it up
Speaker 1: as well. So this is just first thing. Is a
Speaker 1: lot of people like to bet, yes knows will run
Speaker 1: be scored on the first inning. There's all kinds of
Speaker 1: different first inning bets you can make. This is just
Speaker 1: a window into which pictures, which starting pictures have performed
Speaker 1: the best and the worst. Let's say the worst and
Speaker 1: the best first innings this year, just the first frame
Speaker 1: in terms of opponent on base percentage. I just happen
Speaker 1: to use on base percentage, prefer that over say batting average,
Speaker 1: So minimum forty played appearances. Here's who I have, Mark,
Speaker 1: you'll tell me if this is what you got. The
Speaker 1: worst with an opponent five hundred on base percentage, Bryce Wilson,
Speaker 1: followed closely by Usay Cocoches Fight seven opponent on base
Speaker 1: percentage Spencer Watkins for sixty two, Jacob five, Glen Otto Jr.
Speaker 1: Forty two Believe he's on the hill tonight, Chris Bubbage
Speaker 1: for thirty nine. Believe he's on the hill, Chris Booby,
Speaker 1: Mitch Keller for thirty two, and then Kyle Bradish and
Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta maybe a surprising name. Those guys have been
Speaker 1: awful first innings this year. To couch you Watkins auto boo, bitch,
Speaker 1: it's that's how you say it. Actually, you know it is.
Speaker 1: It's okay, it's correct, correct pronunciation of that. How to
Speaker 1: look it up the other day? Yeah, yeah, I don't
Speaker 1: know if he pronounces that the last part. It's just
Speaker 1: like I did. But it's right. It might be boom bite,
Speaker 1: but what you're saying is it is at the y. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And so all those guys, I think that there's something
Speaker 1: to that too, you know. I think that you know,
Speaker 1: maybe it's maybe you need a little larger sample size,
Speaker 1: you know, to to look over the years and stuff.
Speaker 1: But that's I think that's a good way to attack it.
Speaker 1: I guess some guys just like they just can't get
Speaker 1: warmed up. And and you know that first inning is
Speaker 1: always worse. But again it's something like this, The larger
Speaker 1: the sample, the better, absolutely. And and is this how
Speaker 1: I bet first innings? Or have Jason Weinarten best first innings?
Speaker 1: The answer, quite frankly is no, but it is an
Speaker 1: interesting thing to have for some. Let's go to the best.
Speaker 1: Who are the best in the first innings this year? Again?
Speaker 1: Minimum forty played appearances against Sonny Gray number one one
Speaker 1: eight six against Max Freed against These names will sound familiar.
Speaker 1: Shane Bieber two oh three against first innings. Brandon Woodruff
Speaker 1: two oh five on base against Shane McClanahan, a ls
Speaker 1: A young favorite two oh six against first innings. Jose
Speaker 1: Quintana to ten, Maniah to thirteen, Quantrill to seventeen, and
Speaker 1: then Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Anderson, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Zach Gallan.
Speaker 1: Down the list, Justin Steele, Corban Burn smiles michaelis, so
Speaker 1: there you go. I mean, like some of those names
Speaker 1: are are pretty understandable. Yeah. I think Cantana's interesting because
Speaker 1: he's you know, I thought he'd be out in the
Speaker 1: league by now, but he's kind of had a resurgence.
Speaker 1: I have him better than average actually in my ratings,
Speaker 1: which is a big step for for jose Q. And
Speaker 1: so to see him there is is is surprising. But
Speaker 1: sometimes you gotta tip your hat to a guy. He's
Speaker 1: he's been good this year. Gil, how funny does it?
Speaker 1: Does it make you smile or does it or does
Speaker 1: it make you question your life? That you and I
Speaker 1: have have spent so much time that we like we
Speaker 1: still live with Martin Perez and jose Kintana, Like these
Speaker 1: guys have been these guys have been part of our
Speaker 1: lives for longer than we would even want to admit.
Speaker 1: They're still around pitching. We were joking at the end
Speaker 1: of you know, we just one of the funnier things
Speaker 1: that we were that we joke about, is random old
Speaker 1: athletes coming to games. Like when the Diamondbacks late in
Speaker 1: their you know, when they had to get the save
Speaker 1: last night, we needed we needed to shut down inning.
Speaker 1: Were like, is JJ Potts available? You know, is Heath Bell? Yeah?
Speaker 1: So it's baseball players are funny, man. They have their
Speaker 1: heyday and then sometimes as we're seeing with you brought
Speaker 1: up Dallas kikel earlier this morning, they just fall off
Speaker 1: a cliff man. Um, that's basically did well with with
Speaker 1: Derek Low. I mean that was that was just epic,
Speaker 1: an epic run betting against Derek when he was when
Speaker 1: he was finishing off his career. Man. You know, but personally, Gil,
Speaker 1: I smile because I love handicapping baseball. I love living
Speaker 1: kind of like your life is defined somewhere. Because I
Speaker 1: think about Jose Cantana pitching, you know, for the Cubs,
Speaker 1: and I think, well, guys, yeah, and uh, I for one,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm going to start a movement here. I want
Speaker 1: to see start handicapping baseball again. Gil, I loved it
Speaker 1: when you handicapped baseball. I listen, I have I had
Speaker 1: the bandwidth, I probably would, but it's like, well, first
Speaker 1: of all, I was doing two shows for two years.
Speaker 1: There was no chance would I ever get back into
Speaker 1: right I think? So, Like, I mean, we're doing this
Speaker 1: pentathlon again. Nice idea at at Visa to do like
Speaker 1: five games in four days, compulsory right, totally yesterday favorite
Speaker 1: and underdog today? Um what do we have run line
Speaker 1: tomorrow proper on Thursday to round it out? And it's
Speaker 1: just interesting to be forced into that immersion again for
Speaker 1: a week and already after one day, I'm like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: I forgot about this ship, you know, like really, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: The narrowing down process is grueling sometimes, like you're you're
Speaker 1: trying to pick an underdog today like that, I still
Speaker 1: still haven't played take minutes to kind of narrow it down.
Speaker 1: It does? It does. That's a great It's said, that's
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty minutes alone. If you're doing it right, right,
Speaker 1: it's like you gotta think, you gotta think it through,
Speaker 1: like okay, well yes, so first of all, by the way,
Speaker 1: since we're doing a contest, that's an extra layer, like right,
Speaker 1: because you're incentivized to take even bigger dogs, like would
Speaker 1: I bet the Reds at this ridiculous price? You know,
Speaker 1: would I would I take a shot at the Diamondbacks
Speaker 1: against Logan Web at this ridiculous price. Uh No, even
Speaker 1: though contest strategy probably dictates that I should, But it's like, no,
Speaker 1: I can't do that. Then you have to go to
Speaker 1: the shorter dogs, right, and you're like trying to figure out, well,
Speaker 1: you know, the Reds are a nice little price against
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, who Mitch, uh, the Astros don't have your
Speaker 1: don But do I trust the angel? I mean a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of it goes on forever, man goes on forever. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and then and then you you get the remorse if
Speaker 1: you have to narrow it down, you have to you
Speaker 1: narrow it down to the one and the one that
Speaker 1: you didn't play. That's brutal. How many times has that
Speaker 1: happened in your baseball betting career? Good lord, you know exactly, Mark.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Man. Uh, Let's do Q three in
Speaker 1: a couple of months. How about that sounds great? Gal,
Speaker 1: My pleasure as always, Mark Borcherd. Looking before you go
Speaker 1: at base winner base winner dot com. Tell people where
Speaker 1: they can find all your stuff. Yeah, guys at space
Speaker 1: winner dot com. And I send that an overnight chart
Speaker 1: with all of my good numbers, the key numbers for
Speaker 1: the components of each game, and it goes out overnight.
Speaker 1: And then I'm also on a show, the bet U
Speaker 1: s MLB Show that's live at nine Pacific times. So
Speaker 1: what's cool about that show is if you have a
Speaker 1: question on any game, just just ask it in the
Speaker 1: chat room and and I'll answer it for you. So
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed the question and answer part of the
Speaker 1: of that of that show personally, the beautiful thing. Mark,
Speaker 1: We appreciate it, man, and we'll talk soon. Sounds good, Gil,
Speaker 1: thanks a lot, the great Mark forted everybody. It's Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. Q t Q two rather
Speaker 1: MLB derivative show. Hope it informs some winning bets moving forward.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Yeah, check it out now, no doubt. Yeah,