1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: your bets. This is me, Joey P joe P Zapia, 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: and today it's time to look ahead to the division 4 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: round weekend of games in the NFL playoffs. Super wild 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: Card weekend was pretty super to be honest, it was 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: very entertaining. I gotta say. You had environmental games in 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: terms of cold, you had games moving because of snow. 8 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: You had the Eagles finally put out of their misery, 9 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: which check the box we got right here on the program. 10 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: But unfortunately I was dead wrong about the Houston Texans, 11 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: that's for sure. But there's two gentlemen here, Sam Hoppin 12 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 1: and Pat fitz Morris who are still on a high 13 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: after Sunday evenings festivities. So Pat fitz Morris, we got 14 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: to start here. Has Jordan Love now finally done enough 15 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: where you feel really confident about Jordan Love being your 16 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 1: guy of the future. 17 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, Joe Maya Kalpa, I was sort of anti Love. 18 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: Hated the draft pick back in twenty twenty, just hated it. 19 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 2: Thought it was terrible, thought we should have done or 20 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 2: in support of Aaron Rodgers who was still under contract 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 2: turn out, I was just dead wrong. Like Love has 22 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: been phenomenal first nine starts, the splits are crazy. He 23 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 2: was like under sixty percent completion and like six point 24 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: seven yards per attempt through his first nine games. Over 25 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: his last nine games, completion percentage over seventy percent, like 26 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: seven point eight yards per completion. He's just become a 27 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 2: new guy. Looks phenomenal. Great group of young pass catchers 28 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: to throw to. The future is very bright. Indeed, I 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: don't know if he's going to have the level of 30 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: the success that Brett Favan Aaron Rodgers had, but pretty 31 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 2: confident that we have an above average starting quarterback going forward. 32 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: Now. The man with a smile on his face before 33 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: the show wider than the Grinch the night before Christmas. 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: Let me tell you, Sam Hoppin, you gotta be loving 35 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: this right here. I mean, even if you had confidence 36 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: in Love in the Packers, would you have shown here 37 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: on the program a lot of times here more than 38 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: FITZI I think sometimes you have to admit that went 39 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: better than you could have possibly imagined. 40 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 3: For sure, And you know Pat's beating himself up for 41 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: not liking the draft picks several years ago. I don't 42 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 3: think there was anyone outside of the Packers organization who 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 3: did like that pick. I mean it it didn't make 44 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 3: sense at the time because of where that the roster 45 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 3: was in the moment. But again, this is the data 46 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 3: scientiists and me is thinking, you know, if you simulate 47 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 3: this journey out a thousand times, like, how many times 48 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 3: has Jordan Love come out as a top ten quarterback? 49 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: Probably less than I mean less than fifty percent for sure. 50 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 3: And you know, I think just seeing some of the 51 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 3: comparisons in terms of the throwing motion and just nuances 52 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: between him and Rogers and far of like it's it's 53 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 3: one of those things that you know, franchises can continue 54 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: to try to have that sort of you know, mentorship 55 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 3: program if you will, trying to draft someone a little 56 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 3: bit later in the first or second round, let them 57 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 3: sit behind someone. But I mean, it's it has gone 58 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 3: way past expectations and fat. 59 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: They hummeled them Fred team at home of the Dallas Cowboys, 60 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: who hadn't lost the game at home all year. I mean, unbelievable. 61 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: And I know people say, well the Cowboys is what 62 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: they do in the playoffs, but still, I think at home, 63 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: all of us thought we'd get a better effort out 64 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: of there in this game. Although you know there were 65 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: times where you know, you know, Dallas give them the credit. 66 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: They're not throwing the towel all that stuff. I know 67 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: we're looking ahead, but you got to look back to 68 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: look ahead and say, hey, maybe the Packers have a 69 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: chance this week to at least cover this number. We'll 70 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: get to that in a whole lot more. Make sure 71 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel. Drop your comments below. We're 72 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: sill giving away a premium upgrades to Betting Pros, the 73 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: best betting tools on the planet. And if you haven't 74 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: downloaded the Betting Pros app, come on already. What do 75 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: you do and it's January, it's the middle of January. 76 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: Get on that. Plus, if you have iOS, you get 77 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: three free days of premium to try it out. It's 78 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: a good time, it's a good weekend to do it 79 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: because you not only is there NFL around, there's also 80 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: NBA with Matt Mody here on the channel every Wednesday 81 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: every Friday, eleven am Eastern. You could check out Matt 82 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: and his picks for the NBA. The guy's red hot 83 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: right now, so go check him out as well. Gentlemen. 84 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: The other team that's red hot is the Houston Texans. 85 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: What a great story they have been so they did 86 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: not fold under the pressure. They rose to the challenge. 87 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: They beat up the Browns. The defense played great. 88 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: C J. 89 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: Stroud is that dude, He is that leader. However, they're 90 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: gonna go to Baltimore here coming off the bye. They 91 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: are nine and a half point underdogs right now on 92 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: VP the number four this game is forty five and 93 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: a half and you get plus three point thirty. Very 94 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: tempting on the money line. If Cinderella can continue to 95 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: ride this pumpkin into this coach into Baltimore, maybe come 96 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 1: out with another victory, which is asking a lot. Ravens 97 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: have been good coming off a bye. Sam, Let's start 98 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: with you on this one here. Baltimore Ravens here, as 99 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: we said, number one seed for a reason. They've won 100 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: some big games on the stretch, including one in San Francisco. 101 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: This is a big number. Do you think Houston can 102 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: cover it or do you think maybe Houston even has 103 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: a shot to go and make another upset here on 104 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: their road to remaking an organization that has been so 105 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:14,239 Speaker 1: bad for so long. 106 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean credit to the Texans organization. I mean, 107 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 3: they've had a phenomenal year obviously with the division win 108 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: or excuse me, a division title to start and now 109 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: you know, taking a home and upset against the Browns. 110 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 3: But if you look back to Week one these two 111 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 3: teams played each other, it was in Baltimore. The Ravens 112 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 3: are favored by nine and a half points, and the 113 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 3: line is currently sitting around nine. You can find some 114 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 3: eight and a half or nine and a half as well. 115 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 3: So it's not to say that none of these or 116 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 3: neither of these teams have changed it all. It's just 117 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 3: kind of weird to see that this gap is still 118 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 3: as wide as it was in one. And I'd argue 119 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:03,799 Speaker 3: that Houston has improved more than Baltimore has now. Baltimore 120 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 3: has the league MVP on their team right now. Their 121 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 3: defensive game plans, I mean you saw a couple of 122 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 3: weeks ago against San Francisco, have been incredible. Mike McDonald 123 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 3: is doing a great job on the defensive side of 124 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 3: the ball. I like taking the Texans with the points 125 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 3: here that CJ. Stroud is just playing incredibly. Bobby Sloweck 126 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: is dialing up some awesome play calls, It hurts for 127 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 3: sure that Noah Brown is going to be out like 128 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 3: he wasn't by any means a Nico Collins level player, 129 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: but he was a nice rotational player for them. That 130 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 3: certainly again hurts a little bit for Houston side of things. 131 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 3: But I do think the Texans have the horses to 132 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 3: keep up with Baltimore in this game and expected to 133 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 3: be quite a bit closer than the spread currently implies. 134 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: You know, one could argue, Pat, that a lot of 135 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: the pressure here is on Baltimore. You know, a team 136 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 1: that has come out flat after buys before in the playoffs, 137 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: which we recall a team that has a lot more 138 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: expectations in the Houston Texans to that team that's just 139 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: playing with house money, and that makes them very dangerous. 140 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: I'm where Sam is. I kind of like the Houston 141 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: side of this game. I think Baltimore wins or at 142 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: the end of the day, Houston I think has enough 143 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: respect for itself. And look, Stroud put up two seventy 144 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: four to three Tudies. You had, uh, Nico Collins look 145 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: great in this game. Singletary had some moments to the 146 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: offense was clicking. What do you think, Pat, are you 147 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: three for three, where you think the Texans can keep 148 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: this one within this nine and a half. 149 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 2: No, I've got to throw up an X here and 150 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: ruin your line of o's in this little tic tac 151 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 2: toe game. And I hate going against you and our 152 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: resident data scientist Joe, but. 153 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: Well you don't have to. You know, you can come 154 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 1: with us and hang out. We got lots of you know, 155 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: we got snacks. You hang out with us a little bit, 156 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: drakes and beers. 157 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: Sam makes an interesting point that the line is similar 158 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: to what we saw in Week one when these two 159 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 2: teams played each other. And obviously we hold the Texans 160 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 2: in much greater esteem than we did back then. But 161 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 2: I do think we hold the or should hold the 162 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 2: Ravens in higher regard than we did back in Week one. 163 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 2: I mean, they have been pounding opponents lately, six straight 164 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 2: wins in their last three games, they beating the Jaguars, 165 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 2: forty nine, Ers, and Dolphins by a combined sixty seven points. 166 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: Blowout wins over those three teams this year, blow out 167 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 2: wins over the Browns, the Seahawks, the Lions. They have 168 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: proven capable of crushing even very good teams. I know 169 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: that the Ravens haven't been totally invincible at home this 170 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 2: season six and three straight up, five and four versus 171 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: the spread, but M and T Bank Stadium has traditionally 172 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 2: been a very tough place for opponents to come in 173 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 2: and win a game. Baltimore's first in defensive DVA fourth 174 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 2: and offensive DVA third and special Teams DVA just a 175 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: complete outfit, and I realize C. D. Strouje has diced 176 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 2: up a very good Browns defense. Maybe he can do 177 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 2: it again. But even if he's able to, the Ravens 178 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 2: offense is good enough to win a track meet. So 179 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,199 Speaker 2: I just as nice as season as this has been 180 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 2: for the Texans and as dangerous as that passing game 181 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 2: is with Stroud, Houston still ranks near the middle of 182 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: the pack in most power ranking systems, whether it's DVA, Massy, Peabody, 183 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 2: Sagarine rankings, and like the power ranking systems that assign 184 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 2: teams in numerical value to help suggest what the points 185 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: spread should be, suggest that this game should be more 186 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,839 Speaker 2: like Ravens by eleven or twelve with the home field advantage. 187 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: So my one concern is the Ravens are only one 188 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 2: and three against the spread when they're favored by seven 189 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 2: points or more. But the one time they cover that 190 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 2: big number it was against the Texans back in Week 191 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 2: one when they won twenty five to nine. So I 192 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,599 Speaker 2: do like the Ravens here to hold serve. I understand 193 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 2: that the Texans are America's darlings now, but I just 194 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 2: think it's gonna be hard to topple the Ravens in 195 00:09:58,480 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: their building. 196 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: They're they're also Texas's team, I believe too, is what 197 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: they're calling themselves, which gotta love that. I gotta love 198 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 1: that dig there by the team. All right, let's get 199 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: as they should be. I mean, they're way more likable too, possibly. 200 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next one here, the 201 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers taking on the San Francisco forty nine ers. 202 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: This one's going to be on Saturday night. Here. Another 203 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 1: big number. Ten is the number here on the San 204 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: France side, minus ten, which again feels right. I mean 205 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: that seems like where it should be. Fifty is the 206 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 1: number you're getting in the consensus beending pros line right now. 207 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: That's gonna fluctuate a little bit, probably as the week 208 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: goes on. Plus three seventy five on the money line 209 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: for the green Bay Packers. Now, Pat the big X factor, 210 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: and I think the big difference of this Packer team, 211 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 1: or the biggest is Aaron Jones in the run game, 212 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: Aaron Jones being healthy, Aaron Jones being fresh. This is 213 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: four straight games of twenty carries and more than one 214 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: hundred yards of war is coming up a three touchdown 215 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: game against the Cowboys defense. It's been very good. It's 216 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: allowed them to run play actions, allowed them to grind 217 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: the defenses down a little bit. You know, this is 218 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: another one where i gotta tell you at a certain point, 219 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: I've got to show a little bit more respect for 220 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: the Texans, and I think a little bit more respect 221 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: for the Packers because although I have concerns about the 222 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: Packers defense, especially as they let Dallas continue to score 223 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: as that game went on, which doesn't make me feel 224 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: warm and fuzzy against Sam fram At the same time, Pat, 225 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,199 Speaker 1: I'm looking at this one and I think I think 226 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: with that run game, you might be able to keep 227 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: this within the margin of ten. What are your thoughts 228 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: here on this again, pretty large double digit number. 229 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't know how long the green Bay 230 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 2: defense can continue to hold up. I mean, we saw 231 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: This defense really struggle at times in December, giving up 232 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 2: almost four hundred yards of passing to Baker Mayfield, then 233 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 2: giving up more than three hundred yards to Bryce Young. 234 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: They've gotten it together the last three games and played 235 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 2: pretty well against the Vikings Bears and then the Cowboys 236 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 2: last week. Dallas did put up over five hundred yards 237 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 2: of offense last week, but most of that was in 238 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 2: garbage time after the game was well out of hand 239 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: for Dallas. But man, going against the forty nine ers, 240 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 2: they can just hit you from every angle offensively. I 241 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 2: don't know how well the Packers are going to be 242 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 2: able to contain this San Francisco offense. So I do 243 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 2: think they're going to be able to score. I mean, 244 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 2: Jordan Love is just on fire right now, and he's 245 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 2: got so many different weapons in the wide receivers, tight ends, 246 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 2: in abundance of pass catching weaponry. The implied total for 247 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: the Packers in this game nineteen points seventy five points. 248 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 2: I think the Packers are going to score more than 249 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 2: twenty points. 250 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 3: I just do. 251 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 2: And I do think this. 252 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: Dallas just out of curious imply total what that number was. Yeah, 253 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 1: I don't know. 254 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 2: Sam would have been in the same ballpark. 255 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: That's see. That was the point I was going to make, Sam, 256 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 1: which is you know, I bet it was kind of 257 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: the same thing. And you know what, basically we threw 258 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: that out the window this past week, Sam, when we're 259 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 1: looking at this game, here is this where the gritch 260 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 1: has to give back the presence? Like, is this the 261 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: point that we're like, Okay, now we're playing the forty 262 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 1: nine ers. Now things are a little bit different again. 263 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: It's one thing to be road warriors against the Cowboys. 264 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: Obviously the Cowboys have had their struggles here. The fort 265 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: nine Ers could be a different set of circumstances, especially 266 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: coming off a bye a little bit better rested. Do 267 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: you think they're going to take the Packers for granted 268 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: or seriously after what just happened in Dallas? 269 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's tough. I mean, Kyle Shanahan versus 270 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 3: Joe Barry is probably one of, if not the biggest 271 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 3: offensive versus defensive coaching mismatches. It was a little different 272 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 3: with Dallas, where you really only had to shut down 273 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 3: Cede Lamb, but now you have Deebo, Samuel Christian McCaffrey, 274 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 3: Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle like Shanahan's going to find 275 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 3: a way to exploit some mismatch, whether it's lining up 276 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 3: kay Walker against Brandon Aiyuk or you know, some of 277 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 3: these other linebackers against any of these players. And the 278 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 3: other big part of it too is that the forty 279 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 3: nine Ers have gotten healthier too. With essentially two weeks 280 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 3: of rest, the Packers defense is banked up a bit 281 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 3: gyra Alexandra left the game early against Dallas. I think 282 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 3: he will play in this game, but Packers edge Kingsley 283 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 3: and Igbari also tore his acl like he was a 284 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: rotational player. So you're just sort of losing depth at 285 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 3: that point. But it's gonna be tough. 286 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: You know. 287 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 3: Pat mentioned the Packers over team total. I was going 288 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 3: to suggest the forty nine Ers team total over, which 289 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 3: in that case you might as well just take the 290 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 3: game total over. I don't know. It feels kind of like, 291 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 3: you know, the end of college game day when they're 292 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 3: they're making the picks and Kirk kurbs Street has to 293 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 3: have stained from making a pick because he's got to 294 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 3: call the game. I feel like I don't want to 295 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: make a pick given where my bias is. 296 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: Over you know, the case, you know, between running the 297 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: football so efficiently that they have Jordan Love being confident 298 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: in red hot right now, as you said, the Packers 299 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: defense still lacking quite a bit. I think maybe if 300 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: you're not comfortable taking a side year, if you don't 301 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: feel great about the forty nine ers covering the double digits, 302 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: which all year has been a problem for a lot 303 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: of big teams in a lot of these big spreads, 304 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: and if you don't feel confident enough for the Packers 305 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: can cover the ten, then the over feels about right 306 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: to me. Regardless of whatever the implied total is here 307 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: for the Green Bay Packers, I think you know they 308 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: have shown you you could throw that out the window 309 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: in some of these weeks. Tampa Bay versus Detroit takes 310 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: us to Sunday afternoon at three pm Eastern. Tampa is 311 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: gonna be six point underdogs heading to Detroit, where they 312 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: won their first playoff game and a very very long time. 313 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 1: Let's just put it that way. Forty eight and a 314 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: half is the number plus two fifteen on the money 315 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: line for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So the Bucks did 316 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: what they had to do. It wasn't the prettiest game, 317 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: especially in the first half of it, Sam, but eventually 318 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: things opened up a little bit. Baker Mayfield continues to you, 319 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: I'll play good enough here to get the Tampa Bay 320 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: Bucks into that playoffs and then next round of the playoffs. 321 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: Here as we are now in round two, Detroit has 322 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: proven that those people are going to show up, They're excited, 323 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: the building's going to be live. So do the good 324 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: feelings continue here for the Lions or for the Bucks? Sam? 325 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 3: I think it continues for Detroit, and Tampa Bay had 326 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 3: a really good game plan against Philadelphia on Monday night. 327 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 3: I've been a little critical of Dave Canalis, especially with 328 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 3: his run pass splits on early downs, but Monday Night 329 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 3: against the Eagles, the Buccaneers had an eleven point nine 330 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 3: percent passed right over expectation. They knew that the Eagles 331 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 3: defensive secondary was a place to exploit and they took 332 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 3: advantage of that. Baker head over three hundred passing yards 333 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 3: in the game, And if he continues with that, I 334 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 3: think Tampa Bay has a better shot because Detroit's defensive 335 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 3: weakness is in the passing game. This season, they rank 336 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 3: twenty seventh in passing EPA per play allowed, while they 337 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 3: rank fifth in rushing EPA per play allowed, but I 338 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 3: don't think that necessarily tells the whole story. This Lion's 339 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 3: defense is thirteenth in defensive DVOA, which is is not terrible. 340 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 3: It's not great. But last year the Chiefs were fourteenth 341 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 3: in defensive DVA and they went on to win the 342 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 3: Super Bowl. And I'm not saying that the Lions will 343 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 3: do that. But their offense is as explosive and as 344 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 3: powerful as as some of the past Chiefs offenses have been. 345 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 3: So I really like Detroit here. I think they're They're 346 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 3: continuing to ride the high of winning their first playoff 347 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 3: game and in thirty years, which is an incredible accomplishment. 348 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 3: Sort of speaks to this team. And I really just 349 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 3: like Detroit in their hole, basically their whole vibe altogether. 350 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 3: So give me Detroit minus the points. 351 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: Okay, so Sam's on the Detroit side, Pat, where do 352 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: you stand between Tampa Bay Detroit? 353 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 2: I want to be with Detroit, but they could not 354 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 2: cover a three point spread at home against the Rams, 355 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 2: and I don't know that the Rams are that much 356 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 2: better than the Buccaneers, So it's tough. Both of these 357 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 2: teams have been two of the better betting investments this season. 358 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 2: I think both of these teams have gone twelve and 359 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 2: six against the number this year, so it's kind of 360 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 2: hard to go against either of these teams. I do 361 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 2: think the Lions are going to win. I'm just not 362 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 2: that confident that they can cover kind of a big number. 363 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 2: Like I don't know if this game is going to 364 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 2: be a cakewalk. Maybe it is, but I'm just not 365 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 2: comfortable laying this many points. I do really like the 366 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 2: over here. You guys two pretty sketchy pass defenses. The 367 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: Buccaneers ranked twenty third in opponent passer rating this season, 368 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 2: the Lions twenty fourth. Both of the run defenses are 369 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 2: pretty good, so I think we're going to get an 370 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 2: aerial show. We have an indoor weather proof venue, and 371 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 2: I'm sure one of the reasons the total is under 372 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 2: fifty is because when these teams played each other back 373 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 2: in October, the Lions won twenty to six. That was 374 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: kind of a weird game. Though the Lions had nearly 375 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 2: four hundred yards of offense, just didn't really cash in 376 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 2: on the scoreboard, and Baker Mayfield had one of his 377 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 2: worst games of the year, nineteen of thirty seven for 378 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: two hundred and six yards, no touchdowns, one interceptions. I 379 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 2: don't think we're gonna get a low scoring affair this time. 380 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 2: I think we're going to see points this week. 381 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: All right. I am looking around and I you know, 382 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: whenever you get these big favorites in certain spots, you 383 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: know one of them is going to go sideways. And 384 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: it's a harder sell for the San Fray and Baltimore 385 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: one than it is to sell me on the Lions 386 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: game going sideways. But Tampa, which I know would shock 387 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: a lot of people. But if there's one here where 388 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 1: you're looking at money lines, you get plus two fifteen. 389 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: It's tempting there. It's tempting that this game goes close, 390 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: that somebody makes one play and something goes not according 391 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 1: to plan, maybe for Detroit, and all of a sudden, 392 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: you know we're in. You know, they were so celebratory 393 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: last week that playoff game, as they should be. It's 394 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 1: been a very long drout. I often wonder about that 395 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: sometimes too, because you really haven't accomplished anything yet. You've 396 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: won a playoff game. That's a big deal. It's important. 397 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: It's a stepping stone for this organization and the path 398 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: that they've been on and they've been laying these bricks 399 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: for a long time, so it's great to be excited 400 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: about it. They were celebrating hard, you know. You see 401 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: the GM in the elevator. It was like they won 402 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Like, Yeah, let's pump the brakes a 403 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: little bit. Let's act like we're supposed to be here, 404 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: even though you haven't been there as much you'd like 405 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: to do in the last oh, i don't know, thirty years, 406 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: last one here. I'm gonna go out on a limit. 407 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say this line is just wrong, and I 408 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 1: think this is the best thing that could happen to 409 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. They're going to Buffalo. They are 410 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: two and a half point underdogs in Buffalo. Forty six 411 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: is the number plus one twenty on the money line 412 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, which I absolutely love. Pat. I think 413 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,959 Speaker 1: nothing could possibly be better timed than for the Kansas City 414 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 1: Chiefs to be an underdog in a road game, because 415 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: I think they need this in the worst way. They 416 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: need a little bit of a kick in the pants. 417 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: They have to have this a little bit. They've been 418 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 1: so much pressure on themselves to be perfect, to be 419 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: this elite team judge now on Super Bowl appearances in 420 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: Super Bowl victories. I think it is the perfect antidote 421 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: for what has been a very awkward year for the 422 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 1: Chiefs to have to go out there, go to Buffalo, 423 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 1: a team that they've had this rivalry out, and go 424 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: out there and be the dog. I think that's a 425 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: perfect situation that makes the Chiefs very dangerous. But what 426 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: do you think about this? I like the Chiefs on 427 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: the money line, Pat, what do you like? 428 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 2: That's an interesting angle, Joe, and I don't disagree with it. 429 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 2: I think this line is pretty spot on. I'm kind 430 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 2: of torn here between paying heed to the Chiefs playoff 431 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 2: pedigree and also being terrified by what that offense has 432 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 2: looked like for most of the last two months. So 433 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 2: those are sort of the two factors that are like 434 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 2: a tug of war with me on which side of 435 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 2: this game I like. And I'm kind of undecided right now. 436 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 2: Don't know if I'm going to bet a side at all, 437 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 2: to be honest with you. And when these two teams 438 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 2: played the last time, I think that was what Week fourteen, 439 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 2: very evenly mad Bills win by three, almost equal in 440 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 2: terms of total yardage, for both teams, game tied until 441 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 2: Tyler Bass kicked a field goal with just under two 442 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 2: minutes left to play. So yeah, I just I can't 443 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 2: pick a side here. I think the line is just 444 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 2: right where it should be at like two and a 445 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 2: half or three. 446 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: Pat does not share my confidence in Kansas City. Sam, 447 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: what do you think about this one? Because I've made 448 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: my argument. I understand where Pat's coming from to you know, 449 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: Buffalo has certainly played better, you know, after making that 450 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: change at OC you look around to but look, Josh 451 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: Allen ran amuck over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I think 452 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: we all thought that that was a mismatch. This is 453 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: a team in the Kansasity Chiefs that we know are 454 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: a match for the Buffalo Bills and have been many 455 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 1: many times. Rice has emerged, but Checko's emerged. I don't 456 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 1: know how much we could judge off of what we 457 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: saw in the freezing conditions on Saturday night, But does 458 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: anything in that confidence in that w work for you 459 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: as they take the show on the road to Buffalo. 460 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:02,679 Speaker 3: Look, the chief have had the Bills number for most 461 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 3: of the last couple of years. Obviously save the game 462 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 3: earlier in the regular season, this year. This game is 463 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 3: going to be on the road. Is the first road 464 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 3: game for Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. The Bills are 465 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 3: just a step away from being in the AFC Championship Game. 466 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 3: They have the narrative on this side. They've been riding 467 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 3: an incredible high. They've been one of the hottest teams 468 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,400 Speaker 3: in the NFL the last two months. But I gotta 469 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 3: go with the Chiefs. I mean, the Bills are extremely 470 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 3: banged up right now. Two of their linebackers, to El 471 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 3: Bernard and Bale Inspector, both left the game earlier. Left 472 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: the game early against Pittsburgh, Christian Benford injured himself. Guard 473 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 3: Connor McGovern was down on the field and exit but 474 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 3: returned pretty quickly. Same with Stefan Diggs. Gave Davis was 475 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 3: unable to go against the Steelers this past week, as 476 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 3: was Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp. Now, they might get 477 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 3: some of those guys back, but I think the big 478 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 3: thing here is and what's going to cost the Bills 479 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 3: is their lack of secondary receiving options. The Chiefs, I think, 480 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 3: with Lagerius Snead, are going to be able to shut 481 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 3: down Stefan Diggs and Obviously, the two tight ends that 482 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 3: Buffalo have have been have played extremely well, especially in 483 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 3: their twelve personnel. But I don't think the Bills are 484 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 3: going to necessarily have an answer on offense. I think 485 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 3: the best way for them to exploit it is running 486 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 3: the ball with James Cook, who's played phenomenally, and the 487 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,919 Speaker 3: rushing game. Excuse me, the rushing defense of the Chiefs 488 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 3: is the area to exploit. But I just think the 489 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:53,120 Speaker 3: Chiefs with two extra days of rest. Now obviously they 490 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 3: played Saturday, and the Bills had their game yesterday on Monday, 491 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 3: all of this just I gotta go with the Chiefs here. 492 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 3: I know they've looked bad on offense, but I think 493 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 3: on one side of things, like if you look at 494 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 3: the randomness of sort of how their drives have ended 495 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 3: over the last couple of games when they've had all 496 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 3: their players starting obviously in the week eighteen, like they're 497 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 3: getting a ton of field goals and so they're getting 498 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 3: into opponent territory. They're just not able to finish these drives. 499 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: I think they're able to do that against the Bills 500 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: this week. I think for that reason too, the you know, 501 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,719 Speaker 3: the defensive side of things and these offenses not necessarily clicking. 502 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 3: I like the under in this game as well, but 503 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 3: I like the Chiefs money line. I just think they 504 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 3: have a slight coaching advantage here and experience advantage. It's 505 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 3: this is going to be a phenomenal way to cap 506 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 3: off divisional week in the NFL. You know, in all 507 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,919 Speaker 3: these games I think are going to be great, but 508 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 3: I gotta go with the Chiefs. It's a little bit 509 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 3: of a gut instinct here, and you know, Chiefs cain 510 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 3: feeling like they're underdogs, you know, going on the road 511 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 3: for the first time. So yeah, it's gonna be fun weekend. 512 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,679 Speaker 1: So Chiefs, it is here for you and interesting the 513 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: under forty six. Usually when these two teams get together, 514 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: it's nothing short of fifty. You're in the under regardless, 515 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: and Pat, I know you're leading that way as well. 516 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 2: I am Joe, And yeah, it's strange too, like the 517 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 2: under on a total in the mid forties with Patrick 518 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,679 Speaker 2: Mahomes versus Josh Allen. But like, I think that's the 519 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 2: way to go. We know, it's mostly about the Chiefs, 520 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 2: I think, and how they have not been themselves offensively 521 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,880 Speaker 2: for quite a while and they've been really good defensively, 522 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: probably the best defense they've had during the Patrick Mahomes era. 523 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 2: The last time we saw more than forty six points 524 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 2: scored in a game involving the Chiefs was Thanksgiving weekend, 525 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 2: So with the line set at forty six and a half, 526 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 2: and I think that's six games and the Bills have 527 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 2: not There have not been more than forty eight points 528 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 2: scored in a Bills game since Thanksgiving Weekend. Average point 529 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 2: total over the Chiefs last six games thirty nine point three. 530 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 2: Average point total over the Bills last six games forty 531 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 2: two point five. Whether or not really expected to be 532 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 2: a big factor here. It's gonna be cold, but not 533 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 2: windy or snowy. Still, I think the under is the 534 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 2: right play. 535 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: All right, there you have it. Everybody we want to 536 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: hear from you. Drop your comments below right here in 537 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. Let us know what your picks are 538 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: for this division round of the NFL playoffs. And don't 539 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,919 Speaker 1: forget to ring that bell for notifications, so you know 540 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: every time a piece of content drops here on the 541 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,119 Speaker 1: Betting Pros channel, that'll do it for us. But the 542 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Pat and Sam. 543 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids enjoy 544 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs. 545 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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