1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,599 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 2: The global push into infrastructure, breaking the IPO logjam, in tech. 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: The financial stories that shape. 4 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 2: Our work, cutting inflation without losing jobs. Do we need 5 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 2: rate cuts and if so, how many? Investing in the 6 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 2: time of geopolitical turmoil. 7 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Through the eyes of the most influential voices. 8 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: Ten Rogueff Economists of Harvard, former fdicehead Shiela Bert ge CEO, 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 2: Larry Culp, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily. 10 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 2: Equity markets up, interest rates on their way down, and 12 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: underlying it all, a growing federal deficits and an AI 13 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: tech revolution. This is a special edition of Wall Street Week, 14 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: looking back on the first half of twenty twenty four. 15 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: I'm David Weston. We talked with investors and who those 16 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: investors listened to through the year, and we'll revisit some 17 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: of the most memorable conversations with Mary Daily of the 18 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 2: San Francisco Fed, Mark rowan Apollo, Claire Eprono's Centerview Partners, 19 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: and Neil Ferguson of the Hooper Institution. We start with 20 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 2: former Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin and an issue he's been 21 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 2: working on since he first joined the Clinton administration back 22 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety three. The growing federal debt something that 23 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: hasn't gotten better, and he says has gotten much worse. 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 3: I think that the risks are even greater today because 25 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: our debt GDP ratio is a proximal Sumbio estimates about 26 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 3: one hundred percent right now. It's the highest in the 27 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 3: history of the country except for nineteen forty six and 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,199 Speaker 3: forty seven we were coming back out of World War Two. 29 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: I think the risks are enormous, and some of them 30 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: are materializing already, like higher registrates and effect on inflation 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 3: in part not full, and others haven't materialized yet, but 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: I think they're out there and sooner related will materialize 33 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 3: if we don't correct our our physical trajectory. 34 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: You talked about some of the market indicators and even 35 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: forces that you saw in ninety three that sort of 36 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: pointed you in a direction at present Clinton, in the 37 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 2: direction of really making the death set of special issue. 38 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: Are we seeing those indicators of their forces today in 39 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: the markets. 40 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 3: I think that we are seeing the effects, but it's 41 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 3: unfortunately from a political point of view. David I don't 42 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 3: think they're getting connected in a meaningful way. In a 43 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: meaningful way with deficit reduction, sure interested. I mean the 44 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 3: long the tenure was about I think one and a 45 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 3: half percent, say two years ago, and now it's about 46 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 3: four and a half percent. Now, that's a lot of 47 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 3: factors that go into that, but I think part of 48 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 3: it is our fiscal situation and the effect that's had 49 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 3: on inflation. I think it's been an aggravator of or 50 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 3: if you will, an effect on inflation. And I think 51 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 3: there's a general concern about the imbalance between supplying demand 52 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 3: for savings and the excess demand that's created by our deficits. 53 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 3: But it's not Unfortunately, from political point of view, I 54 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 3: don't think the dots are being connected the way they 55 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 3: were back in ninety two to three when we acted. 56 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 3: Ninety three we acted, but ninety two when Predident Clinton 57 00:02:58,600 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 3: was putting his plans together. 58 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 2: Talk these days, when we talk about the FED about 59 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: the neutral rate and debate about whether it is the 60 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 2: neutroraid higher. And I guess my question is does the 61 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: deficit and the debt normally, all the things being equal, 62 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 2: drive the neutroid higher? 63 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 3: I think over time, But I think you can also 64 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: have a long period of time. And we had a 65 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 3: long period of time, actually a long long period of 66 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: time during which all of this was having little effect, 67 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden, the ten year went, 68 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 3: as I said, a moment ago, from roughly one and 69 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 3: a half to roughly four and a half. And I've 70 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: been around markets, and these policies were for five decades now. 71 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: And there's certainly our periods when you can have a 72 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 3: long time when reality is out of or what's happening 73 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 3: is out of sync with reality. But that doesn't go 74 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 3: on forever, and when it corrects, it can correct savagely. 75 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 3: A good example was the Eurozone, the sovereign Eurostone crisis. 76 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 3: For years, the Greek bonds trated roughly speaking parody with 77 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 3: ghivlier take with German buns, and then all of a 78 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 3: sudden exploded. And I think it's a good example of 79 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 3: how what isn't sensible ultimately doesn't continue. 80 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 2: There's the politics of it, which I want to talk about. 81 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: Before that, let's talk about the approach taken to it. 82 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: Let's talk about, for example, the Biden administration. We can 83 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: talk about the Trump instriction. If you walk with the bidminstration. 84 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 2: When you were there back in the nineties, you came 85 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: from Golden Sachs, you had other people there who knew 86 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,679 Speaker 2: the markets pretty well. There was a healthy dose of 87 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 2: how are the markets reacting this? What does that do 88 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: for us? Do we still have that or is it 89 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 2: more ideologically driven because some people think we've sort of 90 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 2: shifted the orientation, particularly the Democratic Party, more toward protectionism, 91 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 2: more toward populism. 92 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 3: Well, you've asked multiple questions. I'll give you. I'll give 93 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 3: you my view. I've given a lot of thought to this, 94 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 3: and I know the people there pretty well. If you 95 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 3: look at the proposals, but I want to respond to 96 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 3: something you said that it's a little different. Well, i'll 97 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 3: give them that in a second. If you look at 98 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 3: the proposals, the major policy proposals that President Biden made, 99 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: they were all paid for in the proposals. Now, ultimately 100 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 3: they had to go through Congress. When they went through Congress, 101 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 3: they came out some of them paid forwards and some 102 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 3: of them not. I think he's ok. I think he's 103 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 3: actually pretty good on this. I think there are other 104 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 3: issues were I might have a different view than he does, 105 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 3: or maybe I would have a say it an altered 106 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 3: view rather than a different view. But I think on 107 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 3: fiscal stuff, actually he's got a pretty good sense of it. 108 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: I think on the proposals that they had three major 109 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 3: bills I were chips and infrastructure and in the original propose, 110 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: and then of course for that build back better and 111 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 3: all of those. If you look at the and I 112 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: this is correct because I looked at them. All of 113 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 3: those the proposals were fully paid for Dad to go 114 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 3: through Congress, and in Congress they in some cases they 115 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 3: lost the paid for us. You know, you mentioned I 116 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 3: forgot how you put it now before, but did you 117 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 3: say populism or progressive? Yeah, populism. If you look at 118 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 3: at what has been referred to as industrial policy, and 119 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 3: they referred to those industrial policy, it's their label, but 120 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 3: it's not it's not picking winners and losers. Now it 121 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 3: may be in the minds of some of those people, 122 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 3: but if you look at those proposals, and I have 123 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 3: talked to their people, that there's a lot I think 124 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 3: they actually make a lot of sense on a purely 125 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 3: economic basis. Their externalities. They basically dealt with shortfall, with 126 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: insecurities in our system, in our ascuse me in our 127 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 3: economic system with respect to our economic security or economic function, 128 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 3: our geopolitical or national security functioning that markets were not 129 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 3: going to meet and had to be met by government. 130 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: So that I think is not industrial policy in the 131 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: traditional sense, and let's pick winners and losers. It was 132 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 3: let's fill holes that the private sector simply isn't filling, 133 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 3: and those are holes of economic inial security. 134 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 2: So from your perspective, the overall approach, you don't take 135 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 2: much issue with. No, do we end up with where 136 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: we are, where we have increasing deficits in increasing debts. 137 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 3: Oh we a minute, what I talked about with the proposals, No, 138 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 3: I think we're in a terrible place because unfortunately, once 139 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 3: you get to legislating, there isn't the will. There's a 140 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 3: lot of talk, but the talk is always divided politically 141 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 3: between the Republicans who refuse to raise taxes and the 142 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 3: Democrats who won't deal with titlements. How I think there 143 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 3: was a reality to this, and that is I do 144 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 3: think when we eventually get to doing this, or if 145 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 3: we were to do it, you know after the next election, 146 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 3: which the Good Lord would hope we will, but I 147 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 3: wouldn't bet on it about sixty percent or something. Of 148 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 3: the increase in the debt from to twenty twenty two 149 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 3: was because of the tax cuts, So if it hadn't 150 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 3: been for that, the debt, instead of being one hundred 151 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 3: percent CDP, would be about sixty percent. 152 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: That was former Secretary of the Treasury Bob Rubins. Private 153 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 2: equity slowed down a lot in response to over five 154 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 2: hundred basis points added to interest rates and a good 155 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: deal of uncertainty about where the economy is headed. But 156 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: it's starting to pick back up and the much anticipated 157 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: FED cuts expected this fall should only help. When we 158 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 2: talk with Blair Efron as cent of You Partners earlier 159 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 2: in the year, he predicted that when the year is over, 160 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: it will prove to have been a good one for 161 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 2: his core business. 162 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 4: I think private equity will be a very strong driver 163 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four. If you think about the years 164 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 4: a preceding twenty twenty three, with basically forty percent of 165 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 4: the market, there is such a large group of companies 166 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 4: that are looking for liquidity and coming from private equity 167 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 4: that I do think it'll be a very active time. 168 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 4: And again that goes directly to the financing markets as well. 169 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 4: The financing arena will be more liquid than it was 170 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 4: last year, and we're seeing most of the private equity 171 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 4: world think about being more active, and frankly, to their credit, 172 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 4: they slowed down activity at a moment when they should. 173 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 4: You know, it's so last year it was much easier 174 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 4: for corporate to look at something and not think they 175 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 4: had private ecret competition. This year, when we see companies 176 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 4: we're selling, the interest is both corporate. We already saying 177 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 4: it corporate and private equity. 178 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: How much of your business immersion exersition is driven by 179 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 2: essentially the need to reform parts of a sector. I mean, 180 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 2: I'm thinking of one that I come out of media 181 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: right now. There's a lot of pressure right now for 182 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: some of the big media companies to really think about 183 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 2: the cards they've got and how they deal with them, 184 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: how they get rid of some how they pick them up. 185 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 2: How much of em andy is really driven by these 186 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 2: big companies saying, you know, we got a really restructure today. 187 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 4: I think it's most of it. Transformation is happening so 188 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 4: quickly and it's so disruptive that every company is saying, 189 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 4: here's my portfolio to day, but where's it going to 190 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 4: be tomorrow. So even you talk about your world media, 191 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 4: it used to be traditional media with three networks. Now 192 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 4: it's traditional and non traditional players. Apple, Google, Amazon are 193 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: as active as Disney, Comcast, Paramount gaming. What is technology? 194 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 4: It's all becomes one industry. If I go across any industry, 195 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 4: that is what we say. I look at the pharma world. 196 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 4: The fact is life sciences is one of the biggest 197 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 4: areas out there. Why because we have such innovation going 198 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 4: on in this country. So many companies you never heard 199 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 4: of five years ago on internet heard of that have 200 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 4: become really important to five years later. That this becomes 201 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 4: a window when you can about R and D for 202 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 4: a big farmer company, it's interesting in many ways to 203 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 4: buy then build. So I would say that every business 204 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 4: is being challenged in ways it never was before. And 205 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 4: it's causing CEOs, It's causing boards, causing season leaders to 206 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 4: constantly rethink their ideal portfolio, recognizing there is never an 207 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 4: end state portfolio anymore. It is always going to be evolving. 208 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 4: And the good news is we have a as talented 209 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 4: and experienced a group of leaders as ever. So when 210 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 4: a CEO undertakes M and A today, chances are strong 211 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 4: that he or she is going to end up doing 212 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 4: a good job in the right thing to the company, 213 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 4: both strategically and financially. 214 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: All of which supports your view. The twenty twenty four 215 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: looks like it'll be a lot strong in twenty three 216 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 2: y three emergent acquisitions. What does that say for a 217 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 2: cent of you partners? Are you hiring an if they are, 218 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 2: you are hiring? What sorts of people you're hiring? Because 219 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 2: it looks very different than did certainly ten years ago, 220 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 2: maybe five years ago, because of something innovasion, not to 221 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: speaking for example generative AI. 222 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 5: Boy, that's a great question. 223 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 4: First, we are hiring, so anybody has a resume, let 224 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 4: us know. We're always hiring. 225 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 5: The skill set we look for is. 226 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 4: Probably different than you would think. We want people who 227 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 4: can think critically, who can analyze situations, who have judgment, 228 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 4: have an ability to make difficult problems distilled into more 229 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 4: simple problems, and it's less about whether you can make 230 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 4: a great model. I do think when AI over time 231 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 4: will replace some of the skill sets that we see 232 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 4: traditionally done in stem coding. For example, I'm not sure 233 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 4: that burs I'd be advising my kids that learning how 234 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 4: to be great coders is going to matter in ten years. 235 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 4: What will matter is do you have judgment? Do you 236 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 4: have an ability to think critically as I mentioned and 237 00:11:54,200 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 4: ask questions that need to be asked, that you can 238 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 4: see situations? What am I missing? And I think that 239 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 4: that is a skill set that people are going to 240 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 4: find is increasingly important. And also the skill set that 241 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 4: says I'm gonna have three careers. What do I need 242 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 4: to know to have three careers of my professional spend? 243 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 2: That was Blair Ephron of Centerview Partners. Coming up. The 244 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 2: United States is doubling down on chip production. We talked 245 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 2: with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily about how her 246 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 2: district is helping to lead the way and not just 247 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 2: in Silicon Valley. That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 248 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: Seen through the Eyes of Experts gives you a better view. 249 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 2: Stocks just keep moving higher. 250 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: And at Bloomberg, our market vision is twenty twenty. 251 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 5: There's still supply chain issues out there. The inflation debate continues. 252 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Radio. 253 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Business appened Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is 254 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 255 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 2: This is a mid year special additional Wall Street Week 256 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 2: we reviewing some of the best interviews we've done so 257 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 2: far in twenty twenty four. One of the big themes 258 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: of the year has been the United States investment in 259 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: microchip manufacturing, and when we think tech, we tend to 260 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 2: focus on Silicon Valley. But Mary Daily, the FED president 261 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 2: whose district includes northern California, told us that that is 262 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 2: only the beginning of the story. 263 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 6: It is not just Silicon Valley. You can go to Oregon. 264 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 6: That's the home of chip manufacturing and has been for 265 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 6: two decades or more. We have silicon slopes in Salt 266 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 6: Lake City, a burgeoning community even in periods, and people 267 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 6: think of it as northern California, but La has a 268 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 6: considerable amount of tech, and Boise, Idaho is building itself 269 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 6: up as a tech center now. They all do different 270 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 6: kinds of things. But to suggest that Silicon Valley is 271 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 6: the only thing out there is really a misnomer. 272 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 2: So an important contributor to you're part of the economy, 273 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 2: which is a substantial part of the economy. Is tech. 274 00:13:58,280 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 2: Is it growing? 275 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 6: It is growing now. It's interesting because there's been some 276 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 6: layoffs in tech. There's been some rebalancing of companies, and 277 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 6: that makes people afraid that tech is falling. And I 278 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 6: always remind people there's a difference in growing less quickly 279 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 6: than you used to or you might want to, and 280 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 6: the level and tech is still a very good investment. 281 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 6: There's a lot of interest in it. There's a lot 282 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 6: of jobs out there available to it. And with the 283 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 6: AI and generative AI boom of interest, we're seeing a 284 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 6: lot of investments in that space alone. And again it's 285 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 6: not just in the GENAI, it's in autonomous vehicles, it's 286 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 6: in predictive learning models and what that can do for businesses. 287 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 6: So there's just a lot of interest and I think 288 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 6: it's fueling those booms. 289 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 2: So tech has been driving the equity markets for a 290 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 2: while now, and it's very exciting. How do you avoid 291 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 2: a bubble? 292 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 6: So tech goes through times of overvaluation and times of repricing, 293 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 6: and we've seen a variety of those over time, and 294 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 6: I think that's just a sense of the enthusiasm for 295 00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 6: the idea and then the understanding that there's a practice 296 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 6: that has to go with it to make it live right. 297 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 6: So the companies, a lot of companies I lived through 298 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 6: the dot com boom. A lot of companies had great 299 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 6: ideas and high valuations, and then of course only a 300 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 6: handful of those ideas were really lasting. And so I'm 301 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 6: I think there's just a normal amount of run ups 302 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 6: and come downs that go on in tech. But the 303 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 6: fundamental idea of tech is it continues to grow through that. 304 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 2: What is the reason why you have such a concentration 305 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 2: of tech in your district. I mean, we tend to 306 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: think on Silicon Valley as being close to Stanford and 307 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: Berkeley and some universities. Is it the educational system there, 308 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: is it some other factors? Just critical mass. 309 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 6: I think there is a bit of critical mass, and 310 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 6: there's a number of research studies that say, you know, 311 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 6: these network effects are large. So one of the things 312 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 6: we've seen is, and you see this anywhere in the country, 313 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 6: really is that people might start in Silicon Valley, they 314 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 6: might start in Austin, Texas, they might start in Boston, 315 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 6: but then they move, you know, family things take them 316 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 6: other places that we have a lot of lovely states 317 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 6: to live in. So people go other places and then 318 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 6: they build those tech centers around them because they have 319 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 6: the expertise, and you certainly that's what happened in Salt 320 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 6: Lake City. It's a tremendously desirable place to live. People 321 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 6: moved from California oftentimes worked with the population, very well 322 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 6: educated population, very enthusiastic population, and so they took this 323 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 6: up and you see this forming. And I think there's 324 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 6: a natural progression of any kind of an industry. But 325 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 6: there is a great enthusiasm in the West for tech. 326 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 6: And it's not just in California the coastal states. I 327 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 6: always remind people that the twelfth district has the inter 328 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 6: Mountain States, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Arizona. Those states are equally 329 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 6: enthusiastic about tech. I was visiting UNLV University of Nevada, 330 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 6: Las Vegas, and they have a big, vergeoning tech center 331 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 6: and entrepreneurship in tech, and it just reminds us that 332 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 6: so many good ideas are taking place and so many 333 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 6: people want to work in that space, that it can 334 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 6: be anywhere in the United States, not just Silicon Valley or. 335 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: Another area that's really prominent in your district, and that 336 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 2: it is commercial real estate, which has gone through a 337 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 2: bit of a tough time, at least parts of it have, 338 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 2: and part because of the increase in the interest rates 339 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 2: give us your sense about work. Commercial real estate is 340 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 2: in your district today. 341 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 6: So one thing that you learn quickly in the twelfth District, 342 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,479 Speaker 6: and i'd say other places in the country, is that 343 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 6: commercial real estate's a big name for a lot of 344 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 6: different segments. So if you're an industrial and warehousing space, 345 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 6: you're feeling very good about things right now. If you're 346 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 6: in retail space or even multi family housing out in 347 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 6: suburban areas, then you're feeling really good. You're confident. The 348 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 6: place where you're seeing weakness and everybody knows it is 349 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 6: in the urban cores of particularly cities like Seattle, Portland, 350 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 6: San Francisco. LA is doing a little bit better, but 351 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 6: you can find pockets of this in LA and that 352 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 6: has to do with the fact that a lot of 353 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 6: people are still working from home in those communities. Those 354 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 6: big office complexes that were built up for those individuals 355 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 6: to work in, they just aren't They're not filled, and 356 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 6: so there will be a repricing and a resettlement. The 357 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 6: thing is, we've known it's coming for a while, and 358 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 6: I see private equity money, venture money sitting on the 359 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 6: sidelines ready to come in when the price is right. 360 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 6: So there'll be some repricing, there'll be some loss of valuations, 361 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 6: for sure, but it doesn't seem today to be the 362 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 6: kind of disorderly adjustment that you would worry about. It's 363 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 6: something that is more orderly. Even though it might be 364 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 6: certainly going to be painful for those involved, it's as 365 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 6: likely to be as disruptive. So even though I'm saying 366 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 6: all of that, it's something we have to keep our 367 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 6: eyes sharply focused on. So it's a primary area where 368 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 6: I am spend a lot of time talking to people 369 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 6: about it to see how are people feeling. But today 370 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 6: they feel a little more positive than they did back 371 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 6: in November October when the ten year had gone up 372 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 6: close to five. 373 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 2: That was Mary Daily, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve. 374 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 2: We've spent a good part of the year so far 375 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 2: with presidential candidates talking about what to do about too 376 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: many people coming across the border between Mexico and the 377 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 2: United States. But Neil Ferguson says we're overlooking the much 378 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 2: longer and more disturbing trend, the decline in birth rates 379 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 2: through much of the world that threatens economic growth by 380 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 2: giving us too few workers. We talked with them about 381 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 2: how big a problem it is and what could be 382 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 2: done about it. 383 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 7: Well, David, when you and I were young, the world 384 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 7: worried about a population bomb. There was going to be 385 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 7: a Malthusian crisis, named after the great eighteenth century political 386 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 7: economist Thomas Malthus, where overpopulation would lead to famine and disaster. 387 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 7: And it was those ideas back in the sixties and 388 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 7: seventies that led to some pretty drastic population policies, not 389 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 7: least the one child policy in China. Well, fast forward 390 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 7: to the twenty twenties and it turns out that the 391 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 7: law of unintended consequences has struck again, and we now 392 00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 7: are facing significant population declines, not only in Asian countries 393 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 7: that drastically reduced family size, but right across the globe 394 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,400 Speaker 7: except in Africa. And it looks as if, although you 395 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 7: can debate the exact timing, humanity will peak in the 396 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 7: twenty sixties, will get to the maximum population, probably some 397 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 7: way before below the ten billion mark, and after that 398 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 7: population is going to decline and decline pretty steeply. This 399 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 7: is most easy to illustrate with the case of China, 400 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 7: where the population is forecast to decline by half by 401 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 7: fifty percent between now and the end of the century. 402 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 7: But it's not just a Chinese story. Ultimately, it's a 403 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 7: global story. And this is one of these trends that 404 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 7: I think most people haven't fully grasped because that's just 405 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 7: a little bit out of the average person's planning horizon 406 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 7: the twenty sixties. 407 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: So what happened? 408 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 2: Why is it that we have, in fact, the fertility 409 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 2: rate's going down the way they are in so many 410 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: countries around the world. 411 00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 7: Explaining why in all kinds of different contexts, couples have 412 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 7: chosen to reduce the number of children that they have 413 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 7: below the replacement rate. Now, it's typically said that the 414 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 7: average couple has to have two point one children. Yes, 415 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 7: I know, there's no such thing as point one of 416 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 7: a child, but just above two for us to maintain population, 417 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 7: because obviously there are some people who die prematurely, perhaps 418 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 7: even in childhood. So the replacement rates two point one 419 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 7: per couple, But all over the world, couples have taken 420 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 7: that number down below to Indeed, in countries like South Korea, 421 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 7: the frescility rate is below one on average, and so 422 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 7: the one child family has become pretty much the norm 423 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 7: in East Asia, and it's rapidly spreading around the world. 424 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 7: Population in the United States has continued to grow only 425 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 7: because of immigration. It's not because of natural increase, because 426 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 7: in the United States, as in most western countries, the 427 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 7: average fertility rate fell some time ago below two point one. 428 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 7: Now why is that? I mean, there are all kinds 429 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 7: of explanations that you can advance. Maybe the attitudes of 430 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 7: women change to family size because women began to pursue 431 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 7: more ambitious careers in the wake of feminism. Or maybe 432 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 7: it's just that as society has become more economically advanced, 433 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,360 Speaker 7: people decide to spend their resources not on having more children, 434 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 7: but on having more vacations, are acquiring yachts and mansions. 435 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 7: There are a bunch of different explanations at work here. 436 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 7: I was drilling down into the South Korean case, and 437 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 7: the answer that I got from the South Koreans I 438 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 7: talked to was, well, it's just so expensive to raise 439 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 7: kids in soul these days, we spend a fortune on 440 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 7: educating our one kid, we just can't imagine doing it 441 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 7: for two. And you know, you have to ask yourself 442 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 7: what the rationale is for a society that invests so 443 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 7: heavily in education, that the fertility rate falls to below one. 444 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 7: I mean, that's a society that's going to be very 445 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,959 Speaker 7: highly educated until it goes extinct, which happens, you know, 446 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 7: pretty quickly. 447 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 2: If you reduce. 448 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 7: Your fertility rate down to point five or point six. 449 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 2: It begs the question of quite if anything governments, through 450 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 2: their policies can do to affect this. Obviously, we have 451 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:19,919 Speaker 2: the one chart policy in China and they're trying to 452 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 2: change that. Not so easy. 453 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 7: Governments have been trying to do this since nearly one 454 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 7: hundred years ago. Was Mussolini when he was the Italian dictator, 455 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 7: who talks about a battle for births, and all kinds 456 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 7: of incentives were created by the totalitarian regimes of the 457 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 7: mid twentieth century to increase the birth rate. None of 458 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 7: it works. It would seem that once people have got 459 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 7: down to two children, it's extremely hard to get them 460 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 7: back up to three. When they're down to one, it's 461 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 7: hard to get them back up to two. So I 462 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 7: think it's very hard to find any evidence of a 463 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 7: successful economic policy that changes the decision making that couples 464 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 7: make about family size. And this is a big problem. 465 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 7: If you're cgnping and staring at this dramatic decline in population. 466 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 7: It's already begun. I mean, the workforce is already shrinking. 467 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 7: And so the one child policy, which was one of 468 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 7: the more dramatic interventions the Chinese Communist Party did back 469 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 7: in the days of dungsilping, has been replaced by a 470 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 7: three child policy. But I can assure you the number 471 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 7: of Chinese couples I know who are planning to have 472 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 7: three children is tiny, and it's highly unlikely in my view, 473 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 7: that China will be able to increase the fertility rate 474 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 7: back above two. If you assume that the fertility rate 475 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 7: stays where it is in a country like China, then 476 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 7: actually the population will fall even faster than fifty percent 477 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 7: between now and the end of the century. And the 478 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 7: thing that's. 479 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 5: Really striking, David is. 480 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 7: If you look beyond twenty one hundred into the next century, 481 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 7: what's really amazing to me is how quickly global population 482 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 7: could decline. We shot up from two billion back in 483 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 7: the early nineteen twenties to where we are today with 484 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,159 Speaker 7: astonished speed, and indeed the last one hundred years was 485 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 7: one of those periods of population explosion. You can see 486 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 7: why people in the nineteen seventies started to panic about it. 487 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 5: We'll get this. 488 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 7: If you fix that for them so much that fertility 489 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 7: falls well below the replacement rate, then the population of 490 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 7: the world could fall with almost comparable speed. 491 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 2: That was Neil Ferguson of the Hoover Institution. 492 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 1: Coming up. 493 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 2: It's been quite a year for American higher education as 494 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 2: on campus demonstrations turned into a job. 495 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 5: Hazard for college presidents. 496 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 2: We talked with Mark Rowan of Apollo, one of the 497 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 2: outspoken critics of what went on. That's next time, Washtreing 498 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 2: Week on Bloomberg. 499 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Well Street Week with David Weston from 500 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. 501 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 2: This is Washing Week and a special episode looking back 502 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 2: on the year so far. I'm David Weston. American college 503 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 2: camp spent the spring in turmoil as demonstrations against Israel's 504 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 2: war against Hamas turned into encampings and presidents of major 505 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 2: universities were called before Congress to explain what had gone wrong. 506 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 2: Mark Rono Apollo has been a strong supporter of his 507 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 2: alma mater at the University of Pennsylvania, but turned to 508 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,119 Speaker 2: be one of its most vocal critics, and we talked 509 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,399 Speaker 2: with him about what triggered the change. 510 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 8: Look, I think we've actually seen a lot of change 511 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 8: take place over time. So I have a very favorable 512 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 8: memory of my experience at the University of Pennsylvania campus. 513 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 8: But think more broadly, US universities were the where and 514 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 8: are the envy of the world. We can destroy that, 515 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 8: we can lose it. Why are kids there? Why did 516 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 8: we think they were there? Be exposed to different points 517 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 8: of view, learn how to think, critical reasoning, critical thinking, maturation. 518 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 8: Is that what they're getting today? I think in some 519 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 8: places it is what they're getting, and in some classes 520 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 8: it is what they're getting. But what I saw at 521 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 8: the University of Pennsylvania and when I spoke out against, 522 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 8: was a dominant narrative that was taking hold on our campuses. 523 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 8: Call it a post colonial education, call it what you will. 524 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,199 Speaker 8: It gave rise to an institutionalization of a point of view, 525 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 8: that there were favorite groups and disfavored groups, that there 526 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 8: was acceptable speech and non acceptable speech. I'm not sure 527 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 8: that's the job that we all signed up for, or 528 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 8: that's the university that we signed up for. Where we're 529 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,479 Speaker 8: watching today on these campuses is nothing more than the 530 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 8: outgrowth of twenty years of bad management. If you have 531 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,160 Speaker 8: a dominant narrative on campus. Do you have academic freedom? 532 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 8: Do you have freedom of speech? I have seen over 533 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 8: the past few years, as I've really stepped up my involvement, professors, 534 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 8: department chairs who are afraid to speak their mind because 535 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 8: their thoughts, their speech goes against the dominant narrative. What 536 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,120 Speaker 8: we're watching today on campus is we're told are leftists. 537 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 8: We used to think leftists were liberal. This hardly seems liberal. 538 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 8: This actually seems illiberal in the most extreme way. Why 539 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 8: haven't they been cleared out? Wen't listen to Ben Sas 540 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,719 Speaker 8: at the University of Florida. We're all about free speech, 541 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 8: We're all about the right to protest. 542 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 5: But there's a time and. 543 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 8: A place and a way you violate and trespass. There 544 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 8: are consequences. Why would we not deal with them everywhere 545 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 8: and that way. Certainly, protests that were inconsistent with the 546 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 8: narrative that we find on our comm campuses have and 547 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 8: will be dealt with in that manner. Speakers are regularly 548 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 8: shouted down, Professors, euers, the administrators who did not react 549 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 8: in that way without that kind of moral clarity, They 550 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 8: now have encampments. Once you have encampments, you have the 551 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 8: potential for violence. You have other considerations that come into play, 552 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 8: but make no mistake, outside agitators, not mostly students, trespass 553 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 8: danger to our the rest of the students and the 554 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 8: rest of the community. 555 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 5: This is what twenty years of a dominant nonce has done. 556 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 2: These are not corporations, but if they were corporations where 557 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: you distrusted good degree, I would say there's a failure 558 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 2: of management in some I'm not saying necessarily at all, but 559 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 2: in some a fundamental failure management. 560 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 5: Having seen it for the insight, where is the failure? 561 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 8: The failures in multiple places, but I think it starts 562 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 8: with me and with us as trustees. We were asleep 563 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 8: at the wheel for twenty years. Part of our job 564 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 8: was to provide balance. I do not think the popular 565 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 8: frame of a campus today where trustees and alumni are 566 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 8: fighting professors over academic freedom, is actually correct. I actually 567 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 8: think the appropriate frame is university administrators who maintain this 568 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 8: dominant narrative are fighting professors for academic freedom. Trustees and 569 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 8: alumni are here to provide balance. We have been asleep 570 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 8: at the wheel. We have not done what we were 571 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 8: supposed to do. We did not object as these dominant 572 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 8: narratives took hold, and it is our job I believe 573 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 8: to support long term excellence in education, academic research, freedom 574 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 8: of expression, freedom to disagree. That's not what we have 575 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 8: on many of our campuses today. We've got a long 576 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 8: way from academic excellence. 577 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 2: How is that corrected without the trustees overstepping their boundaries? 578 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: I mean, you know what I know. 579 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 2: When you sit on the board, there are certain things 580 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 2: you really need to do. You don't want to run 581 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 2: the thing day to day. You don't have trustees there 582 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 2: to be micromanagers. How do you have the proper role 583 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 2: for the trustees without overstepping boundaries. 584 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 5: There's a question of overstepping. 585 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 8: I think the danger right now is far from trustees 586 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 8: overstepping the bount I think trustees, for the most part 587 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 8: of these big institutions, myself included, have failed to act. 588 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 8: We have not done our job in the most fundamental way. 589 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 8: I don't think we are anywhere close to the line 590 00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 8: of overstepping our boots. Most universities operate in a shared 591 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 8: governance manner. Transparency is often the best disinfectant. I do 592 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 8: not believe at the University of Pennsylvania or many of 593 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 8: these campuses, the vast majority of professor actually believe in 594 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 8: this dominant narrative. We as trustees can assure anonymous polling 595 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 8: representation across the faculty, lots of other things that we 596 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 8: can do in addition to just exercising common sense. But 597 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 8: ultimately the job of a trustees is to pick a 598 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 8: leader and to provide that leader with some notion of 599 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 8: strategic plan. Picking good leaders goes a long way to 600 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 8: developing a strategic plan goes a long way. And as 601 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 8: you said, it is not the job of the trustee 602 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 8: or the alumni for that matter, to run these universities. 603 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 5: This is best left to professional administrators. 604 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 2: This all comes against the backdrop of increasing questioning of 605 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 2: the price of a college education and whether it's worth it, 606 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 2: whether you get to return on investments user as the 607 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 2: value at least in cell of these institutions actually gone 608 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 2: down of the investments, and will there be a market 609 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 2: correction as people start to say, you know what, it's 610 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 2: not worth it to send might kid. I'll pick on 611 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 2: a college right now, Columbia when they can't graduate a commencement. 612 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 8: Very unfortunate situation. I don't want to say value has 613 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 8: gone down. I think value has been dispersed. So if 614 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 8: I look at our industry as a microcosm, we thirty 615 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 8: years ago we hired from a very narrow subset of universities. 616 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 8: You know what, there are fifty great places. There are 617 00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 8: not eight or ten great places. There are fifty great places. 618 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 8: So we're watching the value of an education democratized. We are, 619 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 8: as an employer, and I know our peer group as employers, 620 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 8: increasingly going to places that we had never gone to before. 621 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 5: Why because the end product is exit and it is not. 622 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 8: We do not take for granted that because once someone 623 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 8: went to one of ten schools they actually received an 624 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 8: excellent education. We do not treat people as groups. We 625 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 8: actually treat them as individuals. Imagine the novelty of that. 626 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 2: As you said, Mark, I think BRANDI said that sunlight 627 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 2: is the best disinfected. 628 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 5: It seems to be a lot of sunlight right now. 629 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 2: I college campus is Could this actually redound to the 630 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 2: benefit of our higher education system? Actually, as we really 631 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,239 Speaker 2: are exposed to this, we debated publicly and we make 632 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 2: some reforms. 633 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 8: Look for me, I'm an optimist, but I am incredibly 634 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 8: hopeful that this is a moment as much as our 635 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 8: college presidents and leaders are suffering under congressional inquiry right now. 636 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 8: It's only because what they've done historically can't be defended. 637 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 8: Imagine if they actually got up there and they had 638 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 8: something to say, this is how we run it, this 639 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 8: is our goal, this is our plan, This is how 640 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 8: we make sure the kids are protected and also challenged. 641 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 8: Being called in front of Congress is only a negative 642 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 8: if in fact you. 643 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 5: Have something to hide. 644 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 8: I think in academia we've done a very poor job 645 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 8: in the past twenty years. We've got a lot to 646 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 8: a lot of mistakes to rectify. But I do hope 647 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 8: this is a sunlight disinfecting moment of going forward. 648 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 2: One of the things we've seen actually, as daughters now 649 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 2: say well, we're with whole donations. 650 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 5: Do you think that's having any effect? Can you see 651 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 5: any tangible effect in any of these colleges. 652 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 8: Yes, People generally do not support those things that are 653 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,479 Speaker 8: against their fundamental interest. They may do it for a 654 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 8: small period of time where they actually don't know. I 655 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 8: think what we've seen in the past year, donors are 656 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 8: now on notice as to what their university or college 657 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 8: is or is not doing, and they will elect to 658 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,839 Speaker 8: fund or not fund places in which they believe are 659 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 8: consistent with their values, consistent with their principles. For me, 660 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 8: I'm hopeful that these big institutions are going to change. 661 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 2: That was Mark Rowan, CEO and co founder of Apollo 662 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 2: Global Management. Here's some of what our leaders on Wall 663 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 2: Street Week recommended during the year. 664 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 9: So one day early on in my tenure, the person's 665 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:38,759 Speaker 9: a little late, so I actually go over and look 666 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 9: at the books and it's Tokyo on five dollars a day. 667 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,320 Speaker 5: So it's stuff that you leave, you know, behind. 668 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 9: At a hotel and it said a better breakfast. 669 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 5: It is a mess. And I love libraries. 670 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 9: I do read on a kindlenow, but I love We 671 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 9: have three at our home in Chicago. I just love them, 672 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 9: and I just amy and I decide that's going to 673 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 9: be our project. So I know you find it hard 674 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 9: to believe, but I raised one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. 675 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 5: For this initiative pretty quickly. And there's two things. 676 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,839 Speaker 9: So we redid about four hundred and fifty to five 677 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 9: hundred books all on the presidential history, great American literature, 678 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 9: and poetry, great American events. Then we did a section 679 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:25,359 Speaker 9: on both Japanese history, Japanese authors, literature, etc. And it's 680 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 9: a traditional Americana, beautiful library with gold at the top, 681 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 9: and it's all walnut wood paneling, if you can kind 682 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,720 Speaker 9: of put that in your mind's eye. And the books 683 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 9: are worthy of the library, and the library is worthy 684 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 9: of the books. 685 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 2: Not surprisingly, Ram Emmanuel is quite a reader. One of 686 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,040 Speaker 2: the books he recommends highly is about the Plight of 687 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 2: Males in our Society Today, of Boys and Men by 688 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,759 Speaker 2: Richard Reeves on. 689 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,279 Speaker 9: Kind of sociology. The two things that I do this 690 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 9: one of boys and Men. I think we have a 691 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 9: challenge at home, specifically among boys and men. 692 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 5: And I think I. 693 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 9: Always do one sociological book This year was I Went 694 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 9: Back Bowling Alone. You know what year it came out, 695 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 9: two thousand and When you think about where America is, 696 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 9: you think about the opiate crisis, you think about the 697 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:26,120 Speaker 9: law of community, etc. How one professor looking at data 698 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,759 Speaker 9: three turns ahead, realizes where America is going? 699 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 2: It kind of is Gendoliac of Arnold Venture spends her 700 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:37,239 Speaker 2: life researching and then writing out her results. So she 701 00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,279 Speaker 2: pointed us in the direction of a book about the 702 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 2: difficulties in the creative process and how to overcome roadblocks. 703 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 2: The War of Art by Stephen Pressfield. 704 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 10: So one of my all time favorites is called The 705 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 10: War of Art by Stephen Pressfield. Was a longtime researcher, 706 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 10: which meant my job was mostly writing. Still is in 707 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 10: many ways, and this book is basically all about how 708 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,800 Speaker 10: if you are engaged in any kind of creative pursuit, 709 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 10: you have to just show up and work every day, 710 00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 10: have a routine, show up at your desk, be a professional. 711 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 10: Waiting for inspiration to strike is not the way any 712 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 10: sort of any professional writer or creative is actually going 713 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,080 Speaker 10: to have their big ideas or get things done. 714 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:25,879 Speaker 2: As President and COO of Blackstone, John Gray spends much 715 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 2: of his time dealing with challenging situations, but not half 716 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 2: so difficult as those faced by the survivors of the 717 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 2: eighteenth century shipwreck. Told in the book he recommends The Wager, 718 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,840 Speaker 2: a tale of shipwreck, mutiny and murder. 719 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,080 Speaker 11: More recently, I read The Wager, which was about a 720 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 11: failed British expedition to chase down some Spanish ships in 721 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:50,200 Speaker 11: the seventeen forties, and I'm often interested in these people 722 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 11: who face incredible challenges and when they survive and that perseverance. 723 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 5: Shackleton was like that as well. 724 00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 11: You know, in business and investing oftentimes things go wrong, 725 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 11: not as bad as those books, but you learn a 726 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 11: little bit and you want to be smarter how to 727 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 11: deal with crises and challenges. 728 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:06,759 Speaker 5: That does it. 729 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,719 Speaker 2: For the special end of summer edition of Wall Street Week, 730 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:10,760 Speaker 2: I'm David Weston. 731 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. 732 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 2: See you next week.