WEBVTT - 'Hey, nice sea wall': Finding trillions for adaptation 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:01.800 Welcome to zero. 0:00:02.000 --> 0:00:21.200 I am Akshatrati today funding flooding and floating. Three years 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:24.439 after the Paris Agreement was signed, then United Nations chief 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:28.440 Banky Moon saw there was progress on commitments to cut emissions, 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:33.440 but almost none on adapting to climate impacts. Today, close 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.320 to four billion people live in environments that are highly 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:41.120 vulnerable to climate change, and so Banky Moon, alongside other 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:45.280 world leaders, created the Global Commission on Adaptation to promote 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:49.320 solutions and figure out how much it might cost. The 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:55.320 answer is around two trillion dollars by twenty thirty. It's 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.240 hard to move that kind of money without a big plan. 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:02.320 So after they had figure Banky Moon and his colleagues 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:06.760 created another initiative, the Global Center for Adaptation, to act 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.280 as a solutions broker and to figure out how to 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:14.600 finance adaptation projects. Now I've said the word adaptation a lot, 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:16.040 but what does it mean? 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.600 If you talk about climate adaptation, people really get very tired, 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.960 very quickly because it's very abstract. But it's also it's 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:26.199 about people. It's about a small hall of farmer using 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.759 drought tolowant crops. It is about a mother in let's 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:32.920 say Bangnades taking a family to a cyclone shelter. It's 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.039 very concrete, tough. 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.840 This is Patrick Ferqueen, the head of the Global Center 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:43.440 for Adaptation and my guest today. While climate adaptation might 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:48.360 seem vague, it is easy to visualize flood defenses, cooling shelters, 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.280 heat resilient crops. The problem is the financial system we 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:55.760 have today is not funding it all. That might start 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.360 to change, especially if negotiators at COP twenty eight agree 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.160 on a global goal for adaptation. The hope is it 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.600 would specify the kinds of investments needed to be prioritized, 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.440 giving a strong signal to the financial industry to finally 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:13.919 start to fund them. I spoke with Patrick at COUP 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.040 twenty eight about how he is trying to close that 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.640 funding gap, how that money is being used, and the 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:34.079 future of climate migration. Patrick, welcome to the show, Thank 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:36.240 you so much. When it comes to climate change, there 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:39.119 are many many issues to try and tackle. The biggest 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:42.120 and the one that most people talk about is reducing 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:45.680 emissions because that will allow warming to stop eventually and 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:48.560 maybe if he pulls he or two back from the air, 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:53.480 even reverse it. But in the intervening period we're already 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:56.600 at one point three degrees celsius of warming, and there's 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:58.799 a bunch of warming that we've kind of baked in, 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:03.600 which means climate impacts are already worse and they will 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:07.040 continue to get worse. So a second pillar of trying 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:10.320 to tackle climate change is to actually adapt to the 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:15.680 warming that we've already put into the atmosphere. But we 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:19.240 don't talk about adaptation as much on a global stage 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:20.200 as we need to. 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:24.959 Why is that that's exactly right because adaptation was positioned 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.480 in the Pairs Agreement in twenty fifteen as the second 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.400 pillar as part of the climate agreement. We have to 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:33.840 adapt already today, and we are adapting already today, but 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:37.880 unfortunately that adaptation in action is not at a scale 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:40.280 which is required, is also at the speak which is required. 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:44.120 That is why five years ago Bunky Moon, Bill Gates, 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.120 and Crystallina Yogeva, the head of the IMF, they came together. 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.920 They said, well, we have to elevate the political heat 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.600 on their climate adaptation and they launched a so called 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.240 Global Commission on Adaptation. They said, well, if the world 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:04.640 were to invest in five key areas early warning systems, climate, 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:11.000 small agriculture, resilient infrastructure, mangrove restoration, sustainable water management. If 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.480 the world were to invest in these five critical areas 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:18.640 and would mobilize one point seven trillion dollars between twenty 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:22.839 eighteen and twenty thirty, the net economic benefits would be 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.479 in the order of seven trillion dollars. So what these 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.240 leaders try to do is basically change the narrative. Because 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:31.600 you asked why is adaptation not front and center? Because 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:35.240 it's seen as a sonk cost and not as an investment, 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:39.080 and that's wrong. By not investing in adaptation, we are 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.200 missing economic opportunities at scale. 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.560 How are we doing with the one point seven trillion 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.680 dollar climate adaptation goal by twenty thirty. 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.480 We are moving forward, but not fast enough another at 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:54.760 the scale required. Basically, what we see compared to twenty 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:58.240 eighteen is that the adaptation finance gap is growing. So 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.640 if I would give it a scorecard, I would say 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.000 is a failing scorecut. That is the backdrop of this 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.200 Dubai Climate Summit, and it has to be addressed, and 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:08.080 it has to be addressed. 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:13.599 Now, can you talk through specific examples of where projects 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:17.800 in places that require adaptation are being deployed and what 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:18.520 they look like. 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.920 Yeah, So, take early warning systems. We know the facts 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:25.000 is that half of the developing world does not have 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:28.760 proper functioning early warning systems. We also know if you're 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.720 living in the global South, the risk of your dying 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.599 of a climate disaster is fifteen times higher than in 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.880 the global North. So one of the solutions to that 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.240 sort of imbalance is to have early warning systems. Which 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:45.520 country has been pioneering this, well, actually that's Banglades Take 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.640 nineteen seventy. In nineteen seventy, most of your listeners may 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:54.760 notice a massive cyclone hits Banglades in India. Five hundred 0:05:54.839 --> 0:06:00.000 thousand people alone diet in Bangladesh because of this incoming cyclone. 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:04.640 What did they do since then, they had mangrove restoration, 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:08.880 they had earlier warning systems, they built cyclone shelters. So 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:14.479 fast forward twenty nineteen, a similar type of cyclone came 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.719 into Bangladesh. How many people died in the order of 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:22.440 twenty So if a country like Bangladesh can move forward 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.920 on adaptation, certainly the rest of the world can. I 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.920 was recently myself in Bangladesh where I met with Prime 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:33.200 Minister Shai Casina as he said, well, we're investing out 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:38.039 of our own taxpayers money two billion dollars of financing 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:42.320 into climate adaptation, but our investment needs on adaptation is 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:45.080 not two billion dollars which we pay ourselves, it's eight 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.679 billion dollars per year. So there is this massive gap 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.680 of financing to flow into adaptation. And one of the 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:55.719 reasons why the international community is basically coming here to 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.320 Dubai is to find a way around who will pay 0:06:59.400 --> 0:06:59.680 for what. 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:04.960 One thing that helps keep the pressure on reducing emissions 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:10.200 very clear and persistent is because we have clear targets. 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.560 Right the one point five goal has been translated into 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.360 reaching net zero CO two emissions by twenty to fifty globally. 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:21.960 That means every entity can contribute towards reducing those emissions. 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.520 There is a way to align all the people's work 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:29.239 towards one target now adaptation. As we've just talked through, 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.960 there are many many different things that need to be 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.400 done because there's going to be more rain or less rain, 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.040 there's going to be rising sea levels, or there's going 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.320 to be too much heat, or there's going to be 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.560 melting of permafrosts like that, all kinds of climate impacts 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.240 that happen, all of which we need to try and 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.840 figure out how to adapt to So is there a 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:51.920 way in which you could come up with a goal 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:56.000 for adaptation that would be clarifying, that would allow all 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:58.880 these minds to align, just like net zero has done 0:07:59.120 --> 0:07:59.880 for mitigation. 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:04.400 And that's precisely the homework global leaders are wrestling with 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.920 here in Dubai during the Climate summit, because what is 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.840 expected from them is that they agree on a global 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:15.320 goal on adaptation. So and what will these global goal 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.440 on adaptations say? Will it be something simple as it 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:22.480 is on mitigation, i e. A ton of CO two reduced. No, 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:28.760 it's not because adaptation is inherently local and it's multifaceted. 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.920 So different proposals are on the table. One sort of 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:38.240 overarging approach is it's not one goal, it's a framework, right, 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:41.599 and negotiators from the Global SEUTH came forward with a 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.480 very concrete proposal. I said, Wow, should we not agree 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:49.800 that X billion people in the world would become climate resilient? 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:52.720 But that's at the global level. Others would say, well, 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:56.040 actually that's too abstract. Should we not break it down 0:08:56.280 --> 0:09:00.000 sector as sector? We just spoke about the early warning example. 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.480 Should we not have a goal that say, by twenty 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.599 twenty seven, all countries in the world should have a 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.600 functioning early warning system. It's concrete, it's measurable, and it 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:14.320 is very sort of impact oriented. Others would say, well, actually, 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:16.640 should we also not have a goal of specific target 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:21.319 on finance? Two years ago in Glasgow, the world agree 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:25.319 to double adaptation finance from the base level twenty billion 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:29.320 dollars to forty billion dollars by twenty twenty five. But 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.840 we know, of course that that number forty billion is 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:37.360 quite frankly a tokenistic number because the needs, the investment 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:41.240 needs on adaptation in the global South alone is close 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.599 to four hundred billion dollars a year. So there is 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:48.280 all things to play for during this summit. This global 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:53.080 goal on adaptation will help us to make the world accountable. 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:57.400 Just in your own understanding of where things stand right now, 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:01.120 where do you think we will end up with the 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:06.120 global goal on adaptation? So global goals on adaptations. 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.720 So I would say there will be a global framework 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.920 on adaptation, So I'm optimistic about that there will be 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:17.199 a common understanding of where the world needs to head towards, 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:20.959 so that let's say, the annual reporting can and also 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:25.319 be sort of accountable against a particular agreed framework. 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:29.600 But I would think even more important than a framework, 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:33.240 or in addition to the framework, the world and particularly 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:37.760 countries need concrete plans. They need to see these are 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:41.360 my priority investments. This is what the fundancing which I 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.600 will put on the table. This is what I need 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:45.839 from the private sector, this is what I need from 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:49.400 the International finance Institution. It is very important that we 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:54.600 move forward with concrete initiatives where financing is flowing. Why 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:56.959 because at the end of the day, that's the only 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.560 growth story of the twenty first century, particularly for Africa. 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.880 One reason why adaptation does not get talked about as 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:07.480 much as well is because the warmer the planet gets, 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.559 the need for adaptation changes. So what you're doing right 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.040 now for certain things at one point two one point 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.719 four degree celsius may be not good enough when you're 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.079 at one point five or one point seven degrees celsius. 0:11:21.679 --> 0:11:24.920 So what do you do to deal with that problem 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:27.960 where you've invested a bunch of money in an adaptation 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.440 solution that seems to be working for now and for 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.880 the near future, but then we go past a warming threshold. 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.280 Yeah, So I think that's a very very important example, indeed, 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.840 because lots of infrastructure in the world still is yet 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.520 to be built, so I think it's important to take 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:47.000 into consideration which climate reality are we actually building against. 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:50.360 So that's why we as an organization, we're working with 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.400 the African Development Bank, with the Weld Bank, Asian Development Bank, 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:58.120 with the IMF when they sort of operationalize infrastructure investments 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:03.040 to make sure that climate risks are mainstreamed into their design. 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:08.640 Different models are taken into a place. How high should 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.400 this highway be in a one point two degree world, 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:13.760 What will be the sort of the extra high you 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.679 need to build in a one point five degree world? 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:19.040 What are the sort of the nature based solutions which 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:23.400 you can put into place to address these additional climate risks. 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.520 That's quite complex modeling obviously, which needs to take into 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.960 a place. But the fact is many developments today are 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:34.400 not taking into account these sort of these variations of 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:39.439 climate risk. And that's exactly why climate adaptation is essentially 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:45.439 about doing development differently by mainstreaming climate risk. And that's 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.559 a very mundane and easy way to say, but in reality, 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:53.640 lots of development finance is not taking this into account. 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:54.960 That's a missed opportunity. 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.080 So in a way, there's just a lot of low 0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.959 hanging fruit giving people don't even think about adaptation that 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:05.280 could be used and enable more climate resilient infrastructure being 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:06.040 built right now. 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:08.920 And if I may want to add this, the World 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.000 Bank recently came out of with report it so actually, 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.560 if we build an infrastructure traditional infrastructure, it cost x, 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.319 but if we were to build in resilient infrastructure right 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.200 to use in terms of defending against these climate risk 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:27.360 additional costs indeed three percent with three percent more expensive. 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:31.000 But what is the economic return on that extra dollar 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:34.360 pound or euro invested? Is a racial one to four. 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:39.320 It's smart economics. So what I find quite intriguing is 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.440 that it's also about narrative. Right, if you talk about 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:46.280 climate adaptation, people really get very tired very quickly because 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.199 it's very abstract. But it's about people. It's about a 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.200 small hall of farmer using drought tolerant crops. It is 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.880 about a mother in let's say Banglades taking a family 0:13:55.920 --> 0:14:00.040 to a cyclone shelter. It's very concrete touff and I 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:04.720 think that people's centered focus gets lost also, a point 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.679 which I think is important. What you see now particularly 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.240 in Europe. Is this sort of the swing to the 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:12.599 right right. I mean, you see the election results in 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.840 the Netherlands, resort before in Sweden, and you see it 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:19.040 in Italy. What will it do to the climate debate 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:21.720 written large in particularly what would it do to the 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.560 poor cousin of the climate debate climate adaptation? Would it 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.200 be expected that a country like the Netherlands, which is 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:33.320 built on climate adaptation, suddenly drop its investments, say in Africa, 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.800 say in South Asia, say in the Caribbean. That will 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:41.440 be very unwise because the issues and the challenges in 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:44.320 Africa on climate change will not stay. If you want 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:47.720 to address migration in Europe, you can invest a lot 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.400 of walls around Europe, but it's also a very important 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.840 investment to address in the drivers of this migration. Obviously 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.920 not everything is climate induced, but it is one of 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:01.680 the factors. So that's my calls to the right wing 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:06.160 movements which are basically mushrooming in large parts of the world, and. 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:07.800 So a lot of those solutions that need to be 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:09.880 deployed in the global cuth to be able to deal 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:13.440 with those problems require money, and let's talk about money. 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.960 According to your latest climate Finance report, only five percent 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:21.080 of global climate finance was invested in adaptation in twenty 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.520 one to twenty two. That's about sixty three billion dollars. 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:29.480 Your latest report says the funding gap is between one 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.960 hundred and thirty and four hundred billion dollars by twenty 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:35.080 thirty per year per year. 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:36.800 What do you see. 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.120 As the best way to try and increase the money 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.000 that goes towards adaptation. 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:45.800 Yeah, So, taking into account the reality in Ukraine, development 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.440 finance going down, the cost of living crisis in the 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:50.240 West going up. In the rest of the world as well, 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.520 given the exchange rate depreciation, particularly in the global South, 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.360 given a depth crisis, sixty percent of developing nations are 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:02.080 in depth distress. Against that backround, it's not realistic to 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:07.280 assume that international public finance will be the solf of bullets. 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.360 So where is that money needs to come from? While 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.840 there was a host of sort of sources, first and foremost, 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:17.400 I would think it's also the public expenditure in the 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.640 home country itself. I just gave the example of bundandess 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:24.000 it's investing two billion dollars of their own tech spased money. 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.200 We need to make sure that that two billion dollars 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:32.040 is spent wisely on the top priorities in that particular country. Secondly, 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:36.040 what is also vital is where is the private sector 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.960 in all of this? But they're largely absent in the 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:45.359 adaptation space because the return on investment is not always straightforwards. 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.720 If you build a dyke, it has clear sort of 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:51.640 livelihood benefits, but the financial returns is not always there. 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.960 On the other hand, there are opportunities in the adaptation space. 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.200 Writt and Launch say I'm a seat company, and if 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:02.720 I were to bring to the market drought tolerant seats, 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.280 there is a market to be gained there. Let's go 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.400 back to Africa, because it is the most vulnerable continent. 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:13.000 How much finance is flowing from the global north to 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.440 Africa to date, it's eleven billion dollars a year. How 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.000 much is needed on an annual basis if you just 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.080 look at the national determined contribution, the national adaptationment, if 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:24.520 you just add everything up, how much is that fifty 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.879 one billion dollars? So already for Africa alone, it's a 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:30.959 forty billion dollar gap per year. And we will think, well, 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.479 actually that is a lot, and it is a lot, 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.560 But think about the economic benefits which we don't capture 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:41.120 by investing in this. Think about the migration impacts which 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.639 will result from this if we don't invest in this, 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:48.120 So that cost of action visa vis the cost of inaction. 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:51.280 I think that is why it's so important that we 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:57.399 don't leave the climate adaptation debate and agenda to environment 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.199 ministers alone. They're good people, nothing wrong with them, but 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:07.720 the finance community needs to come around this agenda. 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.800 After the break we hear more about local solutions and 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:25.560 the people's adaptation plan. So one way in which we've 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.679 been trying to understand climate finance is if you just 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:32.080 split it into three types of money. One where if 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.800 you invest, you can make profits, and so it is 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:37.399 where the private sector should be taking the lead, should 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.119 be jumping up and down to try and make that money. 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:43.520 But then there's the middle bucket, which is where it's 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.119 not yet clear whether you can make a profit from it. 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:49.800 But from a government perspective, it's absolutely clear that there 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:52.600 is an economic benefit like building a dike, like building 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:56.639 a flood barrier. For that, governments should be able to 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.320 borrow money in the form of barns or debt or 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.399 some instrument and invest now so that they don't have 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:04.520 to then end up paying a lot more money to 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:08.680 deal with the impacts in the future. That requires governments 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.119 to have the ability to borrow money, which, as you 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.919 talked about, is a problem right now because the world's 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:19.600 going through a dead crisis, especially in emerging economies developing countries. 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.879 Are there specific ways in which that gap can be 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:28.000 addressed where developing countries can be allowed to borrow for 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:29.399 adaptation finance. 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:33.560 So there are these very interesting sort of innovative mechanisms 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:39.440 which are basically coming up right now. Take Senegal, West Africa. 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:45.640 President Makisal put forward a deal with IMF right around 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:50.600 the so called RSF another acronym resilient sustainability facility. So 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:54.240 the IMF said, well, we know that your economy, Senegal, 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.960 is vulnerable to climate shocks, and that vulnerability of your 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:02.400 economy will eventually translate into financial risk. So what if 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:08.000 we IMF support you, Senegal in mainstreaming climate risk into 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:13.080 your economic planning. With other words, if you invest your 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:17.560 public expenditures on particular sectors, what is transport with the agriculture, 0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:21.920 take climate risk into account. At the same time, In return, 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.639 Senegal said, well, that's good. So they received three hundred 0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.560 million dollars in terms of credit from the IMF to 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:33.040 mainstream climate risk into their public expenditure process, which is great. 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.680 But separately President Marquiselos said, well, we want to do more. 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:41.000 We have lots of debt and our debt is increasing. 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:46.520 What if we were to find an agreement with say 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:52.240 bilateral creditors Germany, France, China, we say, you know what, 0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:57.639 you cancel our debt and in return of their debt cancelation, 0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:01.600 we invest that in climate adaptation efforts. This sort of 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:05.680 debt for climate swaps. So that's an arena, let's say, 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:10.200 a frontier area where the world should enter into. It's 0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:14.200 not just about oh, tax payers in the global north 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.640 need to pay for climate adaptation in the global south. 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:19.920 That's a way too simplistic. Way. There are different ways of, 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:23.640 let's say, structuring these financial flows. And at the same time, 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:28.600 it's not just about money, it's also about sound policies. 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:33.240 You do need to have building codes which take into 0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:36.440 account the climate shocks not just off today but also 0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:39.000 off tomorrow, so that you don't build in a sort 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:42.080 of a flop prone area and without being protected. 0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:46.400 Now, one of the leaders who was crucial in enabling 0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.600 the Global Center on Adaptation to be formed was Crystallina 0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:53.800 Georgieva at the IMF. Now, IMF has something called the 0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:57.879 Special Drawing Rights. These are just basically money in a 0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:03.640 way that global economies have access to. The larger the economy, 0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:06.080 the more money access they have through the IMF, and 0:22:06.080 --> 0:22:10.280 there's an idea where they can lend that on, lend 0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:13.800 that right to a developing country, and so that developing 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.320 country then is able to borrow and lend money. Is 0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:20.200 that being used for adaptation at all? Is the IMF 0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:23.760 interested in having SDRs drawn into the adaptation debate? 0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:27.120 Yes, so the SDR, the Special Drawing Rise is sort 0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:32.480 of this mechanism indeed to mobilize additional financing the effactor 0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:36.640 on the international capital markets. And indeed Africa needs much 0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:39.440 more SDRs and have now. So we have been very 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:43.720 focal to get more of the SDRs recycled on lended 0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:46.840 by the global north. In a nutshell, so the IMF 0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:51.040 particularly also, I would dare to say, because of Crystallinagorgava, 0:22:51.160 --> 0:22:54.760 because of our development background from the World Bank before, 0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:59.080 from the European Commission, humanitarian work before brought into the 0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:03.639 IMF work adaptation at the center. And that's why this 0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:07.679 SDR recycling is so important. It is being used as 0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:12.040 being now even transferred through institutions such as the African 0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:14.280 Development Bank. I mean the African Development Bank is I 0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:17.280 would say, setting the goal standard because they said, well, 0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:22.680 out of our overall climate finance portfolio, sixty five percent 0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:25.960 is going to climate adaptation. So there are sort of 0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:31.000 ways in where current funding Africa to Asia to the 0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:34.000 current being can be channels in a different way. It's 0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:38.880 not just new money, it's also using existing financial flows. 0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:41.840 Wisely, one other idea has been to try and put 0:23:41.840 --> 0:23:46.600 a levee on fossil fuel profits or on financial transactions, 0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:49.880 a very small levy that would end up with billions 0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:53.199 of dollars that would be available for climate finance. Is 0:23:53.200 --> 0:23:56.760 that something being talked about for adaptation specifically. 0:23:57.480 --> 0:24:01.000 So it's interesting you say, is let's say carbon pricing, 0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:03.920 putting a price on pollution is out there for I 0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:06.920 would say since the early nineties. Obviously it's currently being 0:24:06.960 --> 0:24:10.080 discussed here in Dubai around well, we need to put 0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:12.840 indeed a levee on the oil and gas industry because 0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:15.600 that can then fund loss and damage, right, I mean, 0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:20.320 but surprisingly enough again here this sort of rechanneling of 0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:25.159 finance extracted from basically a levy or tax on carbon 0:24:25.160 --> 0:24:30.359 pollution to fund adaptation specifically is a missed opportunity. But 0:24:30.800 --> 0:24:33.520 there is space also in this. I mean, it's just basically, 0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:38.480 how do you utilize their revenues collected from different sources. 0:24:38.720 --> 0:24:41.040 We should talk about the Global Center and Adaptation, and 0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:44.040 I think the best way to try and understand what 0:24:44.080 --> 0:24:46.919 you're doing is to recognize that your office in the 0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:53.080 Netherlands is the world's largest floating office. Very fitting for 0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:55.719