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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting up to a cash toto.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win. That's incredible, big bank to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combining.

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Speaker 2: And you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are way what's the everybody? Welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and today

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Speaker 1: we're gonna break down how to bet player props and

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Speaker 1: who better to discuss props than the odds maker Sean Turner,

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Speaker 1: the goat projector in the industry.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna cover it all. Sean, what's going on? Excited

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Speaker 2: to talk props?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, There's only one thing I like more than preseason

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Speaker 4: NFL betting and it's player props.

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Speaker 3: So can't wait.

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Speaker 1: Hell yeah, And we're going to cover, you know, all

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Speaker 1: the basic dos and don'ts when it comes to betting

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Speaker 1: player props.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk through our process and give.

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Speaker 1: Some examples and then get a little deeper and discuss

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Speaker 1: some of the specific nuances that we like to incorporate.

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Speaker 2: But to eat it off, I guess we should probably

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Speaker 2: talk about.

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Speaker 1: Why we are qualified to talk about this in the

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Speaker 1: first place, So Sean, I will let you lead it

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Speaker 1: off because you certainly have quite the resume.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I've been betting props now for over

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Speaker 4: two decades. My first prop was like an Albert Pouholz

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Speaker 4: prop in his third season, so that's how long I've

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Speaker 4: been doing this. In our app of a Lifetime ROI

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Speaker 4: have nine point seven percent on over two thousand track props,

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Speaker 4: so it's a big ample size over two hundred thousand followers.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 4: I've won the Fantasy Pros weekly projection accuracy contest for

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Speaker 4: NFL four times now, and a couple of times for

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Speaker 4: like the season long accuracy contests for not just football

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Speaker 4: but baseball. I love, you know, baseball props as well,

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Speaker 4: and then you know, NFL's my top sport. But when

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Speaker 4: it's not NFL season, you'll see me betting on college

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Speaker 4: basketball props, baseball, some NBA not as much as you though,

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Speaker 4: and WNBA among other leagues. But I love just you know,

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Speaker 4: projecting and betting props on whatever sport you know it

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Speaker 4: is in season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, no, you are a monster. It is just

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Speaker 1: an honor to be here with you. And yeah, as

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Speaker 1: for myself, you know, not quite as many props bett

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Speaker 1: as Sean, but I do have well over a thousand

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Speaker 1: props tracked in the Action Network, got well over one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand followers, you know, sixty percent plus NFL props

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Speaker 1: all time, fifty seven percent win rate across all bets,

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Speaker 1: been profitable, and all the four major sports. Top five

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Speaker 1: multiple times in the Fantasy Pros in season accuracy and

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Speaker 1: the season long accuracy over the past three years, top

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Speaker 1: six in that as well.

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Speaker 2: And we'll say, I am.

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Speaker 1: Coming off an NBA Finals that I don't know if

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Speaker 1: I'm ever going to have like a better NBA stretch again,

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Speaker 1: just because I understand how this math works.

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Speaker 2: So I was.

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Speaker 1: I ended up thirty four and six on in game

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Speaker 1: finals props over the duration of the finals. So that

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Speaker 1: that that was pretty fun. But we are on to

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Speaker 1: the next season. We're on to twenty twenty five, and

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Speaker 1: so we'll kind of talk through this in terms of

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Speaker 1: NFL the most, but it will kind of apply it

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Speaker 1: to it'll apply across the board here and we'll kind of,

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Speaker 1: you know, break that down when it doesn't. But you know, Sean,

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Speaker 1: I think the biggest the question we want to start

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Speaker 1: with is, let's say you're a listener out there, you

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Speaker 1: want to become strong at NFL player props. You know,

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Speaker 1: how what is that process actually like to go from zero.

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Speaker 2: To one hundred?

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Speaker 4: Well, I wish it were as simple as you know,

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Speaker 4: just a few sentences, but becoming a good NFL prop

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Speaker 4: better takes time and experience. More importantly, just fine tuning

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Speaker 4: whatever your approach is.

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Speaker 3: I think it's.

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Speaker 4: I just want to say there's no right or wrong

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Speaker 4: way to do it. Whatever you think your approach should be,

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Speaker 4: what you think you're good at, what you think you're

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Speaker 4: knowledgeable at an NFL I think you should start there,

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Speaker 4: and you know, maybe start betting lightly on your model.

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Speaker 4: You want to be tracking as many potential bets as

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Speaker 4: possible and seeing how they're doing. But I wouldn't just

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Speaker 4: go all in right away. But also you know, not

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Speaker 4: getting caught up in results right away. You know, if

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Speaker 4: you're losing a ton, you know you have to kind

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Speaker 4: of refine your approach. But even if you're winning, you

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Speaker 4: kind of want to know what you're getting at and

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Speaker 4: if if you're getting lucky or not. But just understanding

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Speaker 4: how you know results work you and I you just

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Speaker 4: lay through your resume as well phenomenal stuff. There has

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Speaker 4: been one week, two week, a whole month of you know, losing.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, no matter how no matter how good you are,

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Speaker 4: you're gonna go through losing stretches.

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Speaker 3: And the key is you you caught it.

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Speaker 4: Constantly evolve, adapt, and you have to understand am I

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Speaker 4: just getting unlucky? Is there something wrong? But being able

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Speaker 4: to identify what's right and wrong and your your process overall,

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Speaker 4: I think is critical. And just one thing that I'll

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Speaker 4: quickly say that I see a lot of newcomers doing,

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Speaker 4: especially on Twitter, is just game log hunting, where guys

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Speaker 4: cash this prop five times in a row, so you

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Speaker 4: know he's going to cash it a sixth time, right,

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Speaker 4: And I've seen so many people base their.

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Speaker 3: Entire prop on that approach.

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Speaker 4: And if it were that easy, you know, sports books

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Speaker 4: wouldn't exist because that would just be way too easy

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Speaker 4: to just keep, you know, betting on the same thing happening.

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Speaker 4: So I think you just got to understand that. You know,

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Speaker 4: books aren't stupid. They're aware that a guy's cleared their

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Speaker 4: prop five times in a row. But you know, I

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Speaker 4: would say, just coming up with the approach that makes

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Speaker 4: sense for you, and we'll get to it later on.

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Speaker 4: But why unders I think are important to also adapt

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Speaker 4: and learn to love taking unders. I think that's critical,

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Speaker 4: but we'll talk more about that later on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I do think you had on a good point,

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Speaker 1: like there's you should definitely have a healthy distrust of

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Speaker 1: kind of the most accessible information you know which and

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Speaker 1: especially because for example, at a lot of sports books,

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Speaker 1: they will give you the last five stats, like those

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Speaker 1: will be something you could just click right into as

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Speaker 1: you're on the sports book ready to make your bet,

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Speaker 1: and so like, why do you think they do that? Like,

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Speaker 1: you know, they're trying to kind of god you into

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Speaker 1: over you know, overweighting recent performance. Where there are times

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Speaker 1: when a five game sample may be relevant, there are

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Speaker 1: many other times where it's not. And that really is

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Speaker 1: the key. So you know, from a more technical standpoint,

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Speaker 1: I think the first key when you are betting player props,

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Speaker 1: any sport, really any bet you're making, you have to

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Speaker 1: understand how the juice converts to implied probability. So for

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Speaker 1: normal bets, it's usually minus one ten, which makes it easy.

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Speaker 1: That just means you have to bet one hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten to win one hundred, and that equates to you

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Speaker 1: needing to win fifty two and a half percent of

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Speaker 1: your bets to break even. And so the thing about

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Speaker 1: props is there's all these different juices, and I think

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest mistakes I see people starting out

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Speaker 1: make is they shy away from juiced up props. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, you might see a minus one fifty, which

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Speaker 1: equates to a sixty percent likelihood of it happening, and

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Speaker 1: you say, oh, man, like, that's you know, forty points

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Speaker 1: the juice higher than my normal one ten, and so

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Speaker 1: I'm that that must be a bad value. No, they're

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Speaker 1: like the at like, whatever stack that the prop is

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Speaker 1: in the market for, does it necessarily occur at like

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Speaker 1: a fifty to fifty rate to where that prop started out?

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Speaker 1: Or you can assume that that prop started out at

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Speaker 1: minus one ten and got juiced up to minus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: A lot of times no one wants to bet those props,

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Speaker 1: and so there is value on it. So, for example,

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Speaker 1: if you see a minus one fifty, which is again

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Speaker 1: a sixty percent implied probability, and you can find these

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Speaker 1: calculators all over the internet. We have one on the

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Speaker 1: action app if you want to do the conversions. Eventually,

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Speaker 1: the mask kind of makes sense that you can do

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Speaker 1: them in your head if you're a maniac like myself

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Speaker 1: or Sean. But the important thing is to just know

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Speaker 1: what that means and then know what you project as

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Speaker 1: the actual implied probability. And that's where projections come in.

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Speaker 1: That's where you're either going to make your own and

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Speaker 1: that's a lot of times people kind of do it

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Speaker 1: with game blog hunting, and if you're doing it with

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Speaker 1: gamelog hunting, I think the important thing is use a

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Speaker 1: large sample of gamelogs because that even if maybe you're

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Speaker 1: going too far back and it's not completely relevant, you're

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Speaker 1: at least understanding the different ranges of outcomes and understanding

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Speaker 1: how to do it with large sample data. So, like

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Speaker 1: what I mean is, let's say you look at the

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Speaker 1: past twenty games for a quarterback and you see that

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Speaker 1: he's actually cleared this prop seventy percent of the time

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Speaker 1: he's he's cleared it in what would that be, fourteen fourteen,

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Speaker 1: fourteen out of twenty yeah, fourteen out of twenty seventy percent.

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Speaker 1: That's a ten percent edge on that minus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: That's that's a pretty big value.

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Speaker 2: A lot of.

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Speaker 1: Times people aren't looking for those bets, and so those

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Speaker 1: props are the ones that stay unbt and end up

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Speaker 1: giving you the most value. So a lot of times

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Speaker 1: when I come on some of our live shows, a

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Speaker 1: lot of times I'll end up with these, you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one forty, minus one sixty. And you and I

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Speaker 1: know we have that joke sometimes with our guy Friedman,

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Speaker 1: like betted to any juice, you know, So there are

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Speaker 1: some some times where those are going to be the

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Speaker 1: most valuable things. And on the flip side, when you're

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Speaker 1: betting like a long shot, you have to know that

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Speaker 1: a plus one fifty is you know, forty percent likelihood.

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Speaker 1: And so don't just look at juice and say, oh

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Speaker 1: this is juicy. If a quarterback only has like, let's

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Speaker 1: say a thirty percent chance or you think, you know

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Speaker 1: it's roughly in that range a thirty percent chance, then

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Speaker 1: plus one fifty is bad value. And that is how

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Speaker 1: you bet player props. Is that's as simple as I

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Speaker 1: can make it. You're just comparing a projected probability to

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Speaker 1: whatever the juice implies. And there's like you said, Sean,

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Speaker 1: there's really no true wrong, or I should say there's

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Speaker 1: no right way, like you're never gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: prove that what the true implied actual you know, odds are.

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Speaker 1: You just have to kind of make an educated projection,

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Speaker 1: and there there are you know, when we do like

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Speaker 1: our median projections, there are different distributions like that. Essentially

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Speaker 1: you can kind of back into what you know, a

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Speaker 1: certain outcome, what the probability of it would be because

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Speaker 1: there are different percentiles.

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Speaker 2: Think of it.

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Speaker 1: You know, the median would be the fiftieth percentile. And

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Speaker 1: so when we talk about like a ceiling for example,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily saying the absolute highest potential amount of whatever

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Speaker 1: stat we're usually kind of talking about it as in, okay,

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Speaker 1: maybe if it's in the eighty fifth or ninetieth percentile,

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Speaker 1: Like you know, what if you play if you play

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Speaker 1: a season out ten times, what's the what's the highest

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Speaker 1: or second highest?

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Speaker 2: You know, something like that.

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Speaker 1: That's when you hear the same thing with the ten

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Speaker 1: thousand simulations, which a lot of times can be overkilled

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Speaker 1: depending on the stat But the important thing to know

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Speaker 1: just know those know how that juice compares to whatever

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Speaker 1: you're projecting, and then know that there are different stats

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Speaker 1: that are going to be more and less reliable. As

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Speaker 1: in a different amount of sample size. So like Sean,

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Speaker 1: I know you you always talk about how you kind

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Speaker 1: of target certain markets more than.

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Speaker 2: Others because there's either a lot of.

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Speaker 1: Variants and the books can't factor it incorrectly, or because

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Speaker 1: you know it's very consistent and predictable. So it kind

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Speaker 1: of elaborate on that of it looks like think that's

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Speaker 1: a key concept is just you know, how reliable is

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Speaker 1: the data that you're basing your projection on in the

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Speaker 1: first place.

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Speaker 4: So that I mean my personal process is, you know,

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Speaker 4: creating projections for every stat every player every week. So

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Speaker 4: your great recap is, you know, comparing what you know

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Speaker 4: my projections are against the market. So I look at

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Speaker 4: which props I'm showing a big delta on. Usually I'm

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Speaker 4: looking for like over fifty eight percent. So if it's

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Speaker 4: if it's a pick'em type prop where the odds are

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Speaker 4: in the minus one ten range, I need to be

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Speaker 4: showing at least like a fifty eight percent chance that

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Speaker 4: I would cash that. And then from there I look

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Speaker 4: into different factors and possibly see why the market might

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Speaker 4: be over reacting to something or underreacting to something. And

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Speaker 4: there's a ton of stats when it comes to the NFL.

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Speaker 4: But another I think a great one would be like.

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Speaker 3: Like catch percentage.

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Speaker 4: So if a receivers coming off a game where he

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Speaker 4: caught all six of his targets, so he caught one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent of his targets, you know his reception market

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Speaker 4: might be inflated the next week where I'm projecting him

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Speaker 4: to regress towards my expected catch rates, say it's sixty percent,

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Speaker 4: and that the market is kind of like overacting too

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Speaker 4: much to him catching every ball the week before. So

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Speaker 4: that's kind of part of my process is catching guys

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Speaker 4: that exceed expectations and are due for regression. I do

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Speaker 4: this all the time with like defensive player props, like

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Speaker 4: a sack market. If a player is getting a ton

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Speaker 4: of pressure but he's not getting sex, one of the

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Speaker 4: more predictive things for an edgresher to get sex is

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Speaker 4: pressure rates. So things like that I'm looking at. But

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Speaker 4: at the end of the day, even when I see

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Speaker 4: that I'm different than the market on a certain projection,

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Speaker 4: I tend to still dive in and look at why.

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Speaker 4: I just don't assume my projection's right the market's wrong.

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Speaker 4: I look to find out why that's the case and

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Speaker 4: if there's enough underlying factors.

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Speaker 3: To go with it, make it an official play.

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Speaker 4: And I think another important thing is when I make

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Speaker 4: my write ups for every prop, you can see exactly

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Speaker 4: what I'm looking for. And I'm usually talking about the

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Speaker 4: reasons it'll hit, all the underlying factors why it'll hit,

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Speaker 4: But I could also write a whole entire article why

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Speaker 4: I think the prop won't hit. And at the end

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Speaker 4: of the day, I'm weighing the two, like, I think

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Speaker 4: there's more reasons this is gonna hit then it's going

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Speaker 4: to lose. But usually I'm well aware of how the

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Speaker 4: prop itself will lose. And I think that's another important

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Speaker 4: part is you have to be willing to look the

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Speaker 4: other way and you know, think you know there's a

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Speaker 4: chance this loses. Of course, there's the chances loses and

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Speaker 4: why that is. And I think if you're honest with

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Speaker 4: yourself when it comes to that, you're going to be

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Speaker 4: a much much better player prop better.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And there is I think you know, in

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Speaker 1: this day and age, just like so much pseudoscign out

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Speaker 1: there in terms of you know, different mentalities and whatnot.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that you're kind of alluding to

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Speaker 1: something that is important, which is you do have to

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Speaker 1: look at both sides equally. Don't bias yourself as you're

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Speaker 1: kind of doing that analysis, because what you will find

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Speaker 1: is when you can realistically look at both the reasons

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Speaker 1: that a prop you're thinking of betting will hit or miss,

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Speaker 1: it's going to make you a lot more confident to

300
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Speaker 1: move forward and actually bet the props that you feel

301
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Speaker 1: comfortable with the edge and when you know, going back

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Speaker 1: to when you said, you know, if it's minus one ten,

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Speaker 1: you usually for a fifty eight percent. Just to put

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Speaker 1: that into some contexts for the listeners, what you're saying

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Speaker 1: is okay, at minus one ten, you need to be

306
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Speaker 1: about fifty three percent to break even. So you're saying

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Speaker 1: about a five percent edge, you know, delta based on

308
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Speaker 1: whatever the you know, whatever the bet you're looking at is.

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Speaker 2: And there could be a.

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Speaker 1: Like some people, some people, if you're really just trying

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Speaker 1: to go plus ev and you want to make you know,

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Speaker 1: a ton of a ton of bets every day, some

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Speaker 1: some people that that number could be smaller for you

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Speaker 1: than it than it could meet for Sean, who you know,

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Speaker 1: Sean has to kind of watch his time because you're

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Speaker 1: doing so many things that if it's not if you

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Speaker 1: can't get enough down on it, or it's not worth

318
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Speaker 1: your while to to to even bet, you're gonna move

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Speaker 1: on to a different market.

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Speaker 2: So that that edge number is something that.

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Speaker 1: You know, we show with our you know, in our

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Speaker 1: player prop tools on Action Network and uh in the app.

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Speaker 1: But it can be different, and there's you know, as

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Speaker 1: long as you do have a projected edge, uh, then

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Speaker 1: you can it's kind of your call on you know

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Speaker 1: what an edge, what edge is worth it to you?

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Speaker 1: But I do think it's really important to kind of

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Speaker 1: look at both sides because lines move quickly.

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Speaker 2: That is one thing to keep in mind. It's a

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Speaker 2: very sensitive market. If Sean drops a prop on a show,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna move, uh, you know, And that's true of

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Speaker 2: experts across the industry. More so than ever I think

333
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Speaker 2: now is you know, there's just more visibility on sports

334
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Speaker 2: betting and more interest in it. So don't assume that,

335
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Speaker 2: you know, if you do some research on a prop

336
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Speaker 2: and you're kind of on the fence, like it's not

337
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Speaker 2: like an NFL spread or a total where uh you know, Okay,

338
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Speaker 2: I'm thinking of betting this underdog at plus seven and

339
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Speaker 2: a half. Maybe at worst you get you know, you

340
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Speaker 2: lose the hook and it's seven by the time kickoff

341
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Speaker 2: rolls around, or maybe it's six and it's still you know,

342
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: six is still a key number these days, but or

343
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Speaker 2: six and a half. So uh, in props, if the

344
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Speaker 2: book is getting hammered, it's gonna take the prop off

345
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Speaker 2: the board, So you need to have that confidence. I

346
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Speaker 2: think it is an overlooked aspect of prop betting is

347
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Speaker 2: that do the research, be realistic about both sides, and

348
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Speaker 2: that in itself will give you the confidence. And like

349
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Speaker 2: like you said, on track everything, even the bet you

350
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Speaker 2: don't make, I think are some of the most important

351
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Speaker 2: to track because I will run into people a lot

352
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Speaker 2: of the time that say, oh man, I was gonna

353
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Speaker 2: bet this and I didn't, and I kind of regret it.

354
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Speaker 2: If you track those and you see that you would

355
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Speaker 2: have had a track record of success or at least

356
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 2: you're on the right path. That will also make you

357
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 2: more confident, and if not, then it's probably a good thing.

358
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Speaker 2: So uh, I think tracking is very important and kind

359
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 2: of getting into the mentality.

360
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Speaker 1: Where you're willing to pull the trigger quickly because these

361
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 1: lines are These lines do move very quickly. The markets

362
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: are very sensitive, and the lines don't just move, they

363
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 1: will come straight off the board. Like there's been many

364
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: times where Sean, I know, like you and I have

365
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Speaker 1: been getting ready to go on a show and there's

366
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Speaker 1: a prop we wanna we want to talk about live

367
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Speaker 1: and then uh, the butchers take it off the board

368
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Speaker 1: and it's like, oh man, now we gotta come up

369
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Speaker 1: with a whole new Uh, we gotta, we gotta go

370
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 1: back to the slate and we gotta, we gotta come

371
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Speaker 1: up with all new graphs, Like it's just the whole

372
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Speaker 1: thing and so like. But as as somebody that's just

373
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 1: consumed when this content, that's just you know, Uh that

374
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 1: the thing you could take advantage of with us people

375
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: like us, is that we are spending all this time

376
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Speaker 1: on these projections and that that's really the key is

377
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Speaker 1: that when once you find either projections you trust or

378
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 1: process you trust, you have to be confident to just

379
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Speaker 1: you know, go high volume if if you see a number,

380
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 1: because there will be different amount of edges on any

381
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Speaker 1: given slate. And I think, like you meant, like you mentioned, Sean,

382
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Speaker 1: you're you're kind of looking at you're kind of looking

383
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Speaker 1: at it from what what is going to regress to

384
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Speaker 1: the mean, So you recommend that people kind of pick

385
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: a starting point right for each slate, uh any any

386
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Speaker 1: kind of further And I think that's really important. I

387
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: think we should talk about that a little more, like

388
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: how how did you kind of settle on, you know,

389
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 1: going with you know, numbers like receptions that are a

390
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: likely to regress. Is it just because catch right is

391
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 1: like a volatile stat in general, or you know, like

392
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: how did you pick that.

393
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Speaker 2: Starting point?

394
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 4: Like really every stat you can apply this to. But

395
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: I mean you and I were projecting everything at such

396
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 4: a granular level where we're projecting the routes, un rate,

397
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 4: the target rate, the catch rate, you know, and how

398
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 4: far their targets are typically you know, down the field,

399
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 4: so you look at their averaged upth of target. So

400
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 4: every player sort of has this profile, a unique skill set,

401
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 4: so anytime they have like a really good game or

402
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 4: an outlier game, I can kind of identify where they

403
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: got lucky and whatnot. So just working backwards from that,

404
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 4: our projection process kind of helps us specifically sift through

405
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 4: the noise and identify these spots again where the markets

406
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 4: probably overreacting. So at the end of the day, I

407
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 4: am I'm making projections and whatnot, but I'm also thinking

408
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 4: about like what the public is thinking. And I think

409
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 4: that's a critical part of this is the public loves

410
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: to better players that you know, have had success recently.

411
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 4: They also love to bet overs. They want to be rooting.

412
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 4: People tell me they want to be rooting for something Sean.

413
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 4: They don't want to bet an under because they want

414
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 4: to root for things, and I try to remind them

415
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 4: when you bet an under, I lay out all the

416
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 4: things that you know, reasons why you're still rooting for

417
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 4: things to happen when you have an under. So if

418
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 4: I have, you know, Trevor Lawrence under his passing yard prop,

419
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 4: I'm not necessarily saying he's gonna suck all game.

420
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 3: That's not the angle.

421
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 4: When you have a prop like that, you actually want

422
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 4: the Jaguars to score early on. So when Trevor Lawrence

423
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 4: is driving them down the field on the opening drive,

424
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: I'm rooting for successful throws and really good runs, and

425
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 4: when they get near the end zone, we're rooting for

426
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 4: a touchdown. Things like that, or you know, if the

427
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 4: jet if the opponent has the ball with around two

428
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 4: minutes left, rooting for the Jaguars to not get the

429
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 4: ball back by you know, whatever means possible, because we

430
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 4: don't want to get Trevor Lawrence to get in the

431
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 4: two mint offense. So there's so many things that we

432
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 4: haven't under you're actually rooting to happen in the game.

433
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 3: So people need to drop that habit.

434
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 4: But just in general, unders, in theory, they typically have

435
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 4: way more outs because just the distribution of these props

436
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 4: we're talking about. You mentioned it, there's a different distribution

437
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 4: when you're talking about a player's average versus the median,

438
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 4: where the median is always going to be a little

439
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 4: bit lower based on the stat but also there's more

440
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 4: outs for the under to hit. The player can get hurt.

441
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 4: We don't root for injuries, but it happens. It's part

442
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 4: of the game. They can get ejected, they could get benched.

443
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 4: There's a whole host of things that can happen to

444
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 4: help out the unders. So I think just one of

445
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 4: the things I always kind of talk about when I

446
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 4: ride up a prop is all the things that we're

447
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 4: rooting for that need to happen, and it makes it

448
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 4: more enjoyable. That way, where you're not just sitting there

449
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 4: not paying attention to the game, and then when Lawrence

450
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 4: is in, you're just rooting for incomplete passes. That's not

451
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 4: what it's about. You're still rooting for certain things to

452
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 4: happen even when you have the unders. And I think

453
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 4: that's something that everybody needs to get better at, like

454
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 4: understanding that you could bet the under and still be

455
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 4: thoroughly entertained watching the game.

456
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And that's a great point because again, a lot

457
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: of this does. The more I even discuss it now,

458
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: you know, I realized just the kind of mentality that

459
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: it does take. And you you definitely have to have

460
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: kind of a skeptical mentality of the consensus. You have

461
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: to have a skeptical mentality of positive information. For example,

462
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 1: a thing I've noticed especially with the rise of AI

463
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 1: and you know, just all these different you know, the

464
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: more betting sites there are, the more betting analysis sites

465
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 1: there are, what you tend to see is like this

466
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 1: herd mentality where somebody will get on a player prop

467
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: like I think last playoffs, I think an example was

468
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 1: like heading into the Texans playoff game, everyone was on

469
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 1: this Deontay Johnson over I believe it was, and like

470
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 1: you started seeing all these different social posts pop up,

471
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: like Deyontay Johnson, you know, is averaging this many catches

472
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: and he only has to go over one and a

473
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: half or something like that, and it's just everywhere. I'm like, man,

474
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 1: this is this is exactly what you want to fade.

475
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: And but I would think of it a whole different way.

476
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 5: We've seen just how dishonest media can be, you know,

477
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 5: so I would say I would rather people listening to

478
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 5: not even trust us and trust themselves versus trusting everything

479
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 5: that they see, because like I would always think about

480
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 5: it this way, what if all these posts about betting,

481
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 5: these Deontay Johnson overs are just sportsbook spots that are

482
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 5: trying to go to people into this right, Like, I'm

483
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 5: not afraid to say that.

484
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: I think it's a possibility, just given the media landscape

485
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five and what we've seen in a

486
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: lot of different areas of media lately and what's been

487
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 1: exposed and what's not. So you that's how you have

488
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 1: to kind of think about these things, like you have

489
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 1: to really kind of get ruthless and and and that's

490
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: why a lot of times Sean you end up fading,

491
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: uh like stud players like we always joke about, like

492
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: you you end up fading like Travis Kelsey. So I

493
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 1: think like that's that because remember these lines are they're

494
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: supposed to kind of reflect that that uh, that middle

495
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 1: ground where the book can make money both ways. You

496
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: know with the big so uh, just because it's a

497
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: great player doesn't mean he hits more overs. A lot

498
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 1: of times they end up hitting more unders. You know

499
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 1: what the worst unders are the ones that everyone else

500
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: is on. That's like if you if you find that

501
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: everyone's going under with you, that that same thing with

502
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 1: an underdog and just regular betting or total like, that's

503
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 1: probably the time you wanna you wanna you want to

504
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: check yourself correlation. I think we should talk about too,

505
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: because we kind of alluded to it. But uh, Sean Is,

506
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: I think, do you agree that it's important when you're

507
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: picking a starting point, whether you're gonna be someone that

508
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: looks at like a specific stat whether you're gonna be

509
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: someone that looks at like matchups and kind of decides

510
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: that way, or you're just gonna look at pure regression

511
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 1: and market overreactions. I do think one thing that's important

512
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 1: is being aware of correlation and choosing a market where you.

513
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: Are able to wager on both sides.

514
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 1: So I think it's harder to start out in like

515
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: a touchdown market, for example, where books don't usually offer

516
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: no touchdown, like it's only touchdown. Because with receptions and

517
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: receiving yards, for example, a lot of times we'll say, okay,

518
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton has a great matchup, but this is.

519
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: Not a good Davon Velay game.

520
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: But you know it might be a good Little Jordan

521
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: aka boy, little John Humphrey game. So like we'll bet

522
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: overs on two of the receivers, knowing that it's very

523
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: unlikely that, like if one receiver's catching passes, then that

524
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: means four others aren't on any given play, and so

525
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 1: that's why we like unders. The same thing in basketball

526
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 1: with assists, especially in points, it's like a guy can't

527
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: get points and assists on the same pay. Two players can,

528
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: but one player can't. And then there's only so many

529
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: stats that can be accumulated for every offensive possession and

530
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 1: basket unless you have one of those like offensive rebound

531
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: situations where he's just hipping in his own miss which

532
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: are which are great, but you have to be able

533
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 1: to kind of bet like yardage assist things where there's

534
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 1: an over under element so that you can make the

535
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: appropriate fades and not only just be I think that's

536
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: really how you get into betting more unders, is that

537
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: you're able to even if you're somebody that looks at

538
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: like positive matchups and says, Okay, well, this player I

539
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: think is gonna catch a ton of passes, what does

540
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: that mean for the other for the two worst receivers

541
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: or guys in the worst matchups. You have to be

542
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: able to bet that, and just that being available, I

543
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: think is really important. Do you find yourself generally betting

544
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: more of those kind of like over under markets or

545
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: you know, and you what do you kind of say

546
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: to people that are kind of more focused on you know,

547
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: those like higher juice but single outcome markets.

548
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 4: Those those are tricky because usually the books can have

549
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 4: more juice in those markets and you don't even realize it.

550
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 4: So I agree, I tend to focus more on you know,

551
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 4: over under markets or yes, no markets. I know that

552
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 4: you would love if they were to offer no touchdown props.

553
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 4: I feel the same way because I think people just

554
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: don't realize that they're just able to sneak more vigan

555
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 4: to those by not offering the no side of it.

556
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm typically you know, looking at you know,

557
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 4: props that are closer to a coin flip. I don't

558
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 4: know what other way to say it, but where you

559
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 4: can bet on both sides. But I think correlation, that's

560
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 4: a great point. That's kind of how I approach it. Like,

561
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 4: even if I don't directly fade a player like a

562
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: stud player prop, there might be some other angles that

563
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: I can bet on it where I'm not out fading them,

564
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 4: but you know, other player benefit. If Saquon Barkley doesn't

565
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 4: get a ship ton of rushing yards, you know, someone

566
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,959
Speaker 4: like Dallas Goddard might be allowed to catch more passes

567
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 4: if Saquon Barkley doesn't rush for a seven yard touchdown.

568
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 4: So there's things like that, other angles. I think that

569
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 4: those are especially important when it comes to same game parlays.

570
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 4: But I think that's that's kind of how I'm viewing

571
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 4: every game is everything's interconnected, and if I like this

572
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 4: certain angle, it might lead me to you know, liking

573
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 4: a couple other bets based on the same underlying factors.

574
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think I think for people like us

575
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: that you know, really want to make sure, you know,

576
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 1: because we were generally starting out with whatever our preferred

577
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: way to approach a slate is. Like you said, you

578
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: might be looking at receiving, you know, places where receivers

579
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: are due for regression. I tend to kind of look

580
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: at the same thing, you know, in addition to to

581
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: running back carries and you know, guys that may be

582
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: overvalued in that market. So but whatever you're looking at,

583
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: I think it's it's important to kind of again have

584
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: the confidence to pull the trigger on those other bets

585
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: because a lot of times, you know, I'll be hanging

586
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: out at a bar with somebody and we'll kind of

587
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: be talking about what bets we have in the game,

588
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: and they'll they'll have the right handicap, but the one

589
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: bet they chose to kind of exploit.

590
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: That doesn't hit, but all the other ones do.

591
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: So it's like, yeah, if you're betting on somebody to

592
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: go way over his points, or you're really bullish on

593
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: somebody in basketball to go over his points, well there's

594
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: probably going to be one, if not two other guys

595
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: that are in that rotation. If it's not the starting

596
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: lineup or whatever, bench rotation. You know it is with

597
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: that guy that that are going to come in under.

598
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: Like it's very hard for for example, in the NBA,

599
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: all five starters to go over, even four out of

600
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: the five, you know, it's tough. And so just being

601
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: aware of rotations, being aware of who shares the field.

602
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: In the NFL, same thing, you know.

603
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: It's going to be really hard for like a third

604
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: down back and the third wide receiver or you know,

605
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: the earth some I actually would say the early down

606
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: back and the the you know, the third wide receiver

607
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: or the fourth wide receiver to all be going over

608
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: because it's either one game script where the early downback

609
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: is playing more, or it's the other game script where

610
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: it's like a lot more four wide and playing catchups.

611
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: So just knowing those natural correlations will naturally make you

612
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: a better better over time because just being aware of them,

613
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 1: you'll look at and when you don't bet them, it's

614
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: just gonna drive you nuts to the point where you're

615
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: just gonna start betting, and don't bet them in same

616
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: game parlays. Just bet them first. Like that's another thing.

617
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: Bet Just bet all your edges and then you know,

618
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: allocate a little bit to the same game parlay as well,

619
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: because the books profit off you so much more in

620
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: the same game parlays. That's why there's a whole trending

621
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: name for them. Same game Parlay's like you see them everywhere.

622
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: There's like always a category for them on every sports

623
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: but now sometimes sports was a going same game parlays

624
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: and it's just like the normal prop uh you know

625
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: markets where it's like they're really trying to get you

626
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: to bet those. And there's a reason for that because

627
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: you get one wrong and you could be right about

628
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: the other three, four or five things and you don't

629
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: you don't cast so that that that's another important thing,

630
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 1: uh that that we should probably point out.

631
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: But you know what, let's kind of help.

632
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: People establish, like what is the what is the foundation

633
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: you know that that when you're betting NFL props, Like

634
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 1: is it the are we starting out with anything in particular?

635
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: Like I know we kind of talked about where we

636
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: approach a slate from, but I think you know, for

637
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: me anyway, it's it's kind of always being aware of

638
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: those of the projected score for the game overall. Like

639
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: if I'm betting an NFL prop, I want to know

640
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: what what the two teams involved in this prop like

641
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: the offense and the defense, what they're going to score.

642
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: Like let's say I'm betting Broncos receivers.

643
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: I want to know what's to spread in the total,

644
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: So I know Broncos twenty seven, Jets twenty three, and

645
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: then I kind of go from there. Is that how

646
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: you kind of approach it or it's I mean, I

647
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: know it kind of comes up natally, But is that

648
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: you think it's valuable for people to kind of be

649
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 1: aware of those things as well.

650
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 3: No, I think that's a great point. I do that

651
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 3: as well.

652
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 4: And I also think of it in terms of that

653
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 4: team specifically. So a team like the Browns, they're always

654
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 4: going to be underdogs, but if they're only three point underdogs,

655
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 4: that that means, hey, it's going to be more of

656
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 4: a close game script than we're used to with them.

657
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 4: So you know they're early down back. Let's say it's

658
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 4: probably Jerome Ford to start the season, Drome Ford might

659
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 4: get a couple extra carries just based on the expected

660
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 4: game script being closer than normal even though they are underdogs.

661
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 4: So I always think of it in context of, you know,

662
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 4: how the market perceives them, whether it's you know, season

663
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 4: to day or if we're heading in a week one,

664
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 4: just the you're the.

665
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: Season win total and things like that.

666
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 4: But I look at the same exact approach, but I

667
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,760
Speaker 4: also like to compare it to their overall expectations.

668
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And that's going to help you just understand

669
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: how the lines are moving and why they are the

670
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: way they are, and then you could start anticipating line

671
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: moves if you have let's say a different opinion then consensus,

672
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: or you think there might be a scenario that plays

673
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: out that that will create that value. So yeah, that

674
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: is a great point. You want to kind of know

675
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: the team's baseline so that you can have something to

676
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 1: compare it to.

677
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: And I think one other thing we should.

678
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: Talk about with NFL in particular is the interplay between

679
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: game script and certain stats. So one of the things

680
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: that when I was first betting, like it took me

681
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 1: a second. It sounds crazy now, but it took me

682
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: a second to wrap my head around, was that, Okay,

683
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 1: positive game script for a running back is generally going

684
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: to increase his carries and and his yardage, right, but

685
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily decrease seeing passing yardage. It's only decreasing

686
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: passing volume because passing efficiency is gonna go up because

687
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: a team generally needs to accumulate a certain amount of

688
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: passing yardage regardless, just to keep the chains moving. So

689
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: whether that comes on forty attempts against a good defense

690
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: or twenty five attempts against a bad defense, they're still

691
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: probably gonna need to get to there somewhere into their

692
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: baseline passing yardage. Which is why I know you and

693
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: I don't tend to bet a ton of passing yardage

694
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 1: props unless there's like a specifically egregious or different game

695
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 1: script than the baseline, which is what we just kind

696
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: of talked about, Like you know, if it's way off,

697
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: then there can be some value. If like a guy

698
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: has had like ten of the same game scripts in

699
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: like a twelve game season and then all of a

700
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: sudden he's expected to be this big favorite or this

701
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: big underdog or something like that, that might be a

702
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: situation to attack. But generally, like passing yards is going

703
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: to stay a lot more static, and then like completions

704
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 1: could actually go up because efficiency per completion could go down,

705
00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 1: same with attempts.

706
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 2: So like remember you and.

707
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: I used to always kind of laugh at like like

708
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: where are we getting some of these like attempts and

709
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: completion lines? And it's because you're keeping passing yardage a

710
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 1: little bit more static, not completely static, but a lot

711
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: more static than you may think. It's not just simply

712
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: that Okay, rushing yards are gonna increase and passing yard

713
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: is gonna go down. It's just that passing might remain

714
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: the same, just more efficient. So that for NFL, that

715
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 1: is something to keep in mind that I think even

716
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: for some even for me, like it took me a

717
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,319
Speaker 1: while to fully kind of wrap my head around at

718
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: it's like it sounds simple now, but yeah, it was

719
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: one of those things like wait, wait, why is it?

720
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 2: Why is this completion? Like why? Like what what is this? Uh?

721
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, and the same thing for NBA right where

722
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 1: you could have a team expected to do really well

723
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 1: and that could mean fade all their starters because they're

724
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: they're gonna leave the game early.

725
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 4: Uh.

726
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: But then sometimes people take that to the extreme too

727
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: much where they're like, oh man, I don't know how

728
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 1: much Minny minits he's gonna get, so I'm gonna bet

729
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: his unders where it's like no, like if if they

730
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: get to the point where they're leading by thirty and

731
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: can take their starters out. That means that they scored

732
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: like thirty points more than then like you know, the

733
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: average team. So yeah, there's there's those kind of nuances

734
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: that I think only come with experience.

735
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 2: But hopefully we laid some of them.

736
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: I think we're laying out some of the more important ones,

737
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: So hopefully it's a shortcut for people.

738
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 2: But those don't necessarily don't.

739
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 1: There just be whatever sport you're betting, there will be

740
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: those kind of nuances that you should be looking out for.

741
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,959
Speaker 1: And if you're ever questioning, like why is the book

742
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 1: setting a certain line here given what the game projection is,

743
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 1: there might be more to it. So to your point,

744
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: like that's why you want to do some sometimes you

745
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: want to do those those deeper dives and gut check

746
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: gut checks. So what do you think for like you know,

747
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: I just mentioned you know some of like that was

748
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 1: kind of challenging for me at times when I was

749
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: first starting out, Like what what do you what else

750
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: do you think is are some kind of unique challenges

751
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: people face, especially newer prop betters may face when betting

752
00:38:56,840 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: props versus even an experience better in sides and totals,

753
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: you know, Like I got shout to our guy Simon Hunter.

754
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: He always kind of, uh, he actually he's actually a

755
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: lot better than he thinks he is. That a betting prop,

756
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: but he always kind of like, yeah, you know, like

757
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,439
Speaker 1: I'm a side totals guy, and you know, I defer

758
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: to you guys in prost, but he's actually really good

759
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: top better at least one the shows that we're on.

760
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: But what do you what do you think are some

761
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: of the challenges.

762
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I wouldn't even call it a challenge because

763
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 4: I think it's why I love betting on props. But

764
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 4: it's it's much more of a direct outcome, you know,

765
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 4: because you're really projecting one player in one stat. So

766
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 4: it's it's easier for me to be really confident in

767
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 4: my projection or my estimated percent chance he goes over

768
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 4: under that given prop. So it like prop the prop

769
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 4: market itself is pretty soft because it doesn't have as

770
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 4: much money as sides and totals. But I think you

771
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 4: have to be sharp to be successful, whereas like I

772
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 4: don't want to be too general here, but when it

773
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 4: comes to side in totals, those markets are so sharp

774
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 4: that even just a newcomer, you know you're gonna be

775
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: closer to a coin flip just randomly picking sides and totals,

776
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 4: whereas props you could fall in traps, like I was saying,

777
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 4: like people just getting super aggressive looking at you know,

778
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: last five game log, you know you could end up

779
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: losing more going into player props that way. So I

780
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 4: think it's it's a lot more skill based than people

781
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 4: probably give it credit for. But I think that's why

782
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 4: I love it, because again, I'm just really projecting that

783
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 4: player that stat, so I'm much more.

784
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: Confident in it.

785
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 4: The one thing I will say with player props is

786
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 4: you know, especially if you have the over, the player

787
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 4: can get hurt and not coming back in the game,

788
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 4: so you lose the bet. Whereas if you have a side,

789
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 4: like let's say you have the Chiefs on the spread,

790
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 4: if Patrick Maholmes leaves the game, you know your BET's

791
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 4: not looking good, but there's still a chance the Chiefs

792
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 4: can still cover the spread. So it's a little bit

793
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 4: more when you do individuals.

794
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 1: The Chiefs just like, no, don't, don't drive the entire

795
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: field and then kneel down at like the two and

796
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 1: they went through that whole phase that they just never covered,

797
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: Like I just thought.

798
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 3: That was.

799
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 4: Maybe that's a bad example then, But it's like building

800
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 4: the players out of the game, you're you know, you're cooked.

801
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 4: But I think just when it comes to projecting a

802
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 4: player prop and then the result there, it's more of

803
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 4: a direct line, Whereas there's been some times where I

804
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 4: had some angles on the side and I'm watching the

805
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 4: game and all the things that I thought were going

806
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 4: to happen did, but then there's some fluky special teams

807
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 4: plays that it loses, you know, and that can happen

808
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 4: when it comes to player props, but it's you know,

809
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 4: just player props is more of a direct projection and result.

810
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,959
Speaker 4: So that's why I tend to prefer them. Plus every

811
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 4: game there's a million player props, whereas you have one

812
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 4: side when total, so there's a lot more markets to

813
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 4: sift through, which can be challenging for a lot of people,

814
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 4: but it's it's something that again you mentioned, we have

815
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 4: time to do that, so I love it. So I

816
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 4: think all the challenges with player props are actually why

817
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 4: I like them.

818
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I will say that I've seen, you know,

819
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 1: some people I know, personally get very good at betting

820
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 1: player props in those markets. And I think the one

821
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: thing that they do have in common is that generally

822
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: they will outsource that projections process, you know, and find

823
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 1: a source of trusted projections, whether it's ours or somebody else's.

824
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 1: You know that that just takes a lot off the

825
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 1: table because you can still add your own opinion to

826
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,839
Speaker 1: projections that you like, You can tweak ours, you can

827
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 1: tweak you know whatever. But you don't want to be

828
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: starting from a point where you're just using you know,

829
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 1: like you said, just like the last five or some

830
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 1: kind of thing where it's it's not really giving you

831
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 1: the dials in starting baseline value that that you really need,

832
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 1: and it's then it's going to be I think a

833
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: lot more volatile. So that is something that I have seen,

834
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: and that's that's really where you want to kind of

835
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 1: take advantage of the fact that there's there's just not

836
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 1: many you know, projection people that can kind of spend

837
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 1: the kind of time and you're probably not going to

838
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 1: be one of them.

839
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 2: If you are, then hey, welcome, Welcome to the party.

840
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: Man. Yeah, good to good to have some company. But

841
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: we'll get into some more prop betting tips. Just want

842
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: to remind everybody that the NFL season is almost here.

843
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 2: We've got some huge improvements.

844
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: And updates coming on the award winning Action and Network app,

845
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: which we're very excited.

846
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 2: To talk about in the weeks ahead.

847
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: But to get the most out of the app, you

848
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 1: still need to be an Action Pro subscriber. And it's

849
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: only with Action Pro that you get real time pick

850
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: a where it's from myself, Sean Kerner, the entire Action

851
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: Network group of experts.

852
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 2: Plus you can access.

853
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: Our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive

854
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 1: analytics team, plus a ton of other tools and benefits

855
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 1: and features as well. Right now, Action Network podcast listeners,

856
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: you could save twenty dollars of your money all at

857
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 1: the annual price of an Action Pro subscription. All you

858
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 1: got to do go to Action Network dot com slash

859
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: Pro and use code Pod twenty that's PO D two

860
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: zero at Actionnetwork dot Com slash Pro and you could

861
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 1: save twenty dollars off the annual price of an Action

862
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 1: Pro subscription. Speaking the tools, Sean, you know what are

863
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: some of the tools, resources, data points that you use

864
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: every day this season? We already kind of mentioned your

865
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: projections a source of projections that you can kind of

866
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: rely on and won't take too long to kind of

867
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: pull up. That's that's one thing, but what are you

868
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: what else do people need to kind of keep in mind?

869
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 2: What are you using?

870
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I've already mentioned it, but I like PFF

871
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 4: their data. They have you know, good routes run data

872
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 4: man versus zone data. I love you know next gen

873
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 4: stats as well, especially for rushing data.

874
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 3: But let's just save some time and.

875
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 4: Get to the best resource, and that's our Action Network

876
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 4: player prop tool with with our projections that they compare

877
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 4: to you know, the market, and it already does all

878
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 4: the work for you, highlights where all our edges are.

879
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 3: And I think you made a good point.

880
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 4: Even if you're somebody that that has your own process

881
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 4: or use ours, it's a great way to just identify

882
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 4: which props were showing value on and then take some

883
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 4: time to look into that and see what you can find.

884
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 4: But I've always found for me, specifically, to to just

885
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 4: see quickly which which props we're even showing value on,

886
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 4: it's it's easier to do it that way. So, yeah,

887
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,280
Speaker 4: are when it comes to just player prop tools in general,

888
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 4: I would say our tool is the best.

889
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean that it's you're right, because you

890
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 1: know my process during the season, it's like there is

891
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 1: this big update that has to take place after the

892
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: injury reports, which come out on Friday night, so you know,

893
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 1: somewhere between Friday night, Saturday after morning, afternoon, like I'm

894
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: doing all this you know, updating based on you know,

895
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: the final injury reports, and then like I'm exhausted by

896
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: the end of it, and so it's good to just

897
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,439
Speaker 1: be able like that is a lot of times how

898
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: I start the prop my you know, my research for

899
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 1: the slate and what which props.

900
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet is.

901
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: I'll just go and say, okay, wait, which one of

902
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: my projections are showing the most edge? And I'll usually

903
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: pull up yours too and look at the consensus and

904
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: just kind of get all the ones I should be

905
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 1: kind of aware of and all the spots, and then

906
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 1: I kind of go from there because you still got

907
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 1: to allocate your time, and there you can get overwhelmed.

908
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,320
Speaker 1: That's why I kind of recommend sticking to the markets

909
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 1: with you know, an over and an under side, and

910
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: then yeah, I tend to favor receiving first, and then

911
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: I'll go to rushing and look at passing last one.

912
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 1: It's NFL for NBA. I like to look at assists

913
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: turnovers first because I think there are some edges in

914
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 1: those markets that are a little more nuanced. And like,

915
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: for example, you can bet under turnovers and uh, you

916
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: know for teams that you expect to kind of do

917
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: bad poorly just be or guys you don't expect to

918
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: actually get much action and play poorly. You know, maybe

919
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 1: like a Nie Smith is a guy where I was

920
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: bet under his turnovers because he had this habit of

921
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: committing way too many fouls and so he just didn't

922
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 1: have a chance to commit the like whatever, it was

923
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: two free turnovers because he's.

924
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:40,359
Speaker 2: A catch and shoot guy.

925
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 1: So just things like that little nuances you starting to

926
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 1: pick up and develop your process. And I think that

927
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 1: you know some some a tool like that that we

928
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 1: have and it lists, you know, the projections that list

929
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: the edges and you could sort by edge. It just

930
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: saves a lot of time and that in itself is important, and.

931
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 2: As is when we talk about re sources.

932
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 1: If you can multiple accounts, multiple sports book accounts, because

933
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: what you're gonna find is there are different lines on

934
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:14,240
Speaker 1: different books, and you always want to get the best value,

935
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: or if you're having a lot of success, you're gonna

936
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 1: get to the point where props the one the downside

937
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 1: of props compared to sides and totals is that there's

938
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: less lower i should say limits.

939
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 2: So if you're.

940
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 1: Gonna want to get more down than maybe once side

941
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 1: of while So that is that is something that I think,

942
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: uh is a little bit underrated but can can play

943
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: a big factor as you kind of progress.

944
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: All right, what else we got here?

945
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 1: Let's what is what's kind of the ideal prop betting opportunity?

946
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: You know, we've kind of talked a lot about all

947
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 1: the different components, but if you kind of put it together,

948
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: give people an example of just kind of how how

949
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 1: everything could come together for them in once once it's clicking.

950
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 3: Yeah.

951
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 4: So again, every prop I write up, I lay out

952
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 4: all the underlying factors. Every prop's unique different check those

953
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: out for more specifics. But for me personally, again, I'm

954
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 4: finding props that I'm showing at least, you know, a

955
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 4: five percent edge, and then I look into it, and

956
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 4: then if I look into it and I'm just loving

957
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 4: what I see and there's very little to scare me away.

958
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: And then I look on Twitter.

959
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 4: Or X, I like search the prop like you know,

960
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 4: DeAndre Hopkins over and if I see everybody freaking out

961
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 4: about the over your AI book bots, yeah, I love

962
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 4: it even more then I like, I already like the under.

963
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 4: Everybody's on the over, I'm showing an edge. That's my

964
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 4: favorite opportunity. That's just everything's cooking checked every box.

965
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 3: That's my favorite prop.

966
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:56,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

967
00:49:56,920 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 1: I love the ones where it's like Sunday morning, I'm

968
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: looking at like a like a second string running back,

969
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 1: and then it's like I'm already down on them.

970
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,720
Speaker 2: And then I know my projections are like waveable market.

971
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: And then I look at your projection and any like

972
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,240
Speaker 1: you're also like six yards below.

973
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh man, like yes, let's go.

974
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 3: Uh so Yeah.

975
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: Then again that's why I support and to just kind

976
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 1: of have your have your go tos and you know

977
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: kind of I think start out with a couple of

978
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: markets that you can kind of that intuitively kind of

979
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: makes sense for you, and then you can kind of

980
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 1: naturally expand you know, as you grow and you'll you'll

981
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: kind of naturally see other edges and then and I

982
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 1: would say, start out, don't start out looking like hunting

983
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: same game. Parways, I have had much better experience, and

984
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 1: I know people that follow UH probably have had the

985
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: same I know they for a fact they've had the

986
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:49,240
Speaker 1: same experience where I just have the best success parlaying

987
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 1: my best bets for a slate rather than trying to

988
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: hunt correlations. Like sometimes I'm betting multiple spots in a

989
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 1: game because of correlations, but I'm not hunting them. So

990
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 1: it's gonna come naturally, and bet, bet your bets, Bet

991
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 1: bet your best bets and then just parlam and you'd

992
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: be surprised if you're doing well. Those should be hitting

993
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 1: and you're gonna get better prices anyway, because the books

994
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 1: also know what's correlated or what's not, and a lot

995
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 1: of times they'll know inflate the price, and it's harder

996
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: to Again, you're always trying to make sure you're managing

997
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:20,880
Speaker 1: your time, and a lot of times it's harder to

998
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 1: kind of calculate and fully you know, have to vet

999
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 1: every single price increase, and you know think odds will

1000
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: shift at when you're trying to place the.

1001
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 2: Bet and whatnot.

1002
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, bet bet your bet your bets and the

1003
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: books won't know what to do, like, wait, why is

1004
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 1: he betting like these five completely unrelated things, because yeah,

1005
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: he has a good chance of going five and oh

1006
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 1: every you know, every you know enough to make it

1007
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 1: worth awhile, So yeah, I think that's that's that's kind

1008
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 1: of how you want to approach that live betting shut

1009
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: on what's your what are your views on that?

1010
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 2: Any tips?

1011
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 1: How how often do you kind of engage in live

1012
00:51:57,920 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 1: player props?

1013
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 4: First off, you got to tune into are calling Nick

1014
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 4: Giffin's live show about what happens live. I think that's

1015
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 4: the best way to get into it. He talks about

1016
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 4: the model we made where you know, he's he's updating

1017
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,359
Speaker 4: everything in real time. He's saying why you know he's

1018
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 4: showing value. But it all comes down to game flow.

1019
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 4: So if a team's trailing, you know, their passing rate

1020
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 4: will go up as they attempt to come back, and

1021
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 4: vice versa.

1022
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 3: If a team's leading, they're typically going to run the

1023
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 3: ball more.

1024
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 4: But what we found is sometimes the market can overreact

1025
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 4: to that, especially you know, like at halftime, if a

1026
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:38,800
Speaker 4: team's down by seven, the yeah they're down by seven now,

1027
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 4: But if they open up the next half with the

1028
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 4: touchdown drive. Now it's a neutral game script again, so

1029
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 4: people don't realize that the the game flow itself can

1030
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 4: change so fast that you don't you don't apply the

1031
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 4: trailing game script boost the entire game.

1032
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 3: There's ebbs and flows to it. So books know.

1033
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 4: Books know that if a team's winning, people will kind

1034
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 4: of attack the rushing overs and the receiving unders. So

1035
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,399
Speaker 4: you got to be sharp about it, and that Nick

1036
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 4: does a great job on bet what happens live. But

1037
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 4: we again we have a tool for that. Are our

1038
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,800
Speaker 4: player pop tool actually shows where value is in game.

1039
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 4: Sometimes you got to be careful because the guy can

1040
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 4: get hurt and it changes things. But you know, do

1041
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 4: your own research on that. But we do a good

1042
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 4: job of highlighting in game where we're currently showing value

1043
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 4: based on our live model.

1044
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, And one of the ways personally that I kind

1045
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 1: of learned the in and out ins and outs of

1046
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 1: live betting, both size and totals really and player props

1047
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:47,800
Speaker 1: is just picking a game and kind of watching the odds,

1048
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 1: not betting anything, but just kind of watching how the

1049
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: odds change as different things occur. For example, you'll kind

1050
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: of start to see, Like in your example with the

1051
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 1: team down seven, is like, yeah, if that team comes

1052
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 1: out and gets a couple of first downs, like things

1053
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 1: are going to change pretty drastically. But once they get

1054
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 1: if they get into third and long, now you're in

1055
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 1: a whole different situation and you start to understand where

1056
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: the opportunities may lie for you to to kind of

1057
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 1: place a bet.

1058
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 2: And also, I mean, shouldn't you shouldn't have to say

1059
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 2: this in.

1060
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 1: Twenty five, but do remember that most of us are

1061
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: streaming now there could be a delay. Make sure if

1062
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: you're if you're actually watching the game, that you got

1063
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 1: your your your your broadband er whatever you're using your fiber, uh,

1064
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 1: make sure it's it's current and there's not a delay.

1065
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 1: And a lot of times the sportsbooks will also have

1066
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 1: a delay, and I think they I would say they

1067
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: probably use that to their advantage. So don't don't really

1068
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:45,799
Speaker 1: trust the box scores like on the sports books. Have

1069
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 1: your own, you know, whether you using the action app

1070
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 1: or you're using something else, or you're watching, just make

1071
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: sure you're your your current and you know, maybe start out,

1072
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: you know, kind of finding situations where you can bet

1073
00:54:57,719 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 1: during a pause in the action because you don't want

1074
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 1: to get up. You know, two plays behind, you're banging

1075
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:05,000
Speaker 1: on information like even one play behind could just be

1076
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 1: a drastic difference in value or in outlooks.

1077
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's atably something.

1078
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 3: That's a great point.

1079
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 4: I realized I didn't have the delay turned off on

1080
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 4: my YouTube TV. I figured that out, so very important

1081
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 4: to be up to speed. But on one real quick

1082
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,760
Speaker 4: example that I thought was one of my favorite live bets,

1083
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 4: and it's about knowing, you know, play rotations, and I

1084
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 4: had Herbert. I had the over on his rushing prop

1085
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 4: on Thursday Football a couple of years ago, and the

1086
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 4: Bear's backfield is very straightforward. Dave Montgomery would have the

1087
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 4: first two drives and then Herbert would get the third

1088
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 4: drive all to himself. And I noticed during the Bear's

1089
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 4: second drive, I think the game script was still neutral,

1090
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,360
Speaker 4: Herbert's rushing prop had dropped like four or five yards,

1091
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 4: and I noticed that, I'm like, what the hell, I

1092
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 4: wouldn't even expect them to have a carry by now,

1093
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 4: So I actually post I bet has over and posted it,

1094
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 4: so I double triple down, even because I liked to

1095
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 4: Dave mark that point. And then sure enough he came

1096
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 4: in on the third drive and he ripped like a

1097
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 4: sixty yard run. But I think sometimes you can catch

1098
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:16,800
Speaker 4: the market just kind of being lazy in that regard

1099
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 4: at not knowing rotation. So if you know, you know

1100
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 4: a certain backfield rotation like that or something else, you

1101
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,240
Speaker 4: can you find some discrepancies in live market that they

1102
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 4: just don't have the bandwidth to even catch.

1103
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you see. You can see that a lot.

1104
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 1: I would say, both live and even pregame in some

1105
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: of the quarterback rushing props, like there'll be times when

1106
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: like a quarterback is like over under half a yard

1107
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 1: and it's like, like the only way he's going over

1108
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:46,839
Speaker 1: this is if he doesn't kneel down and scrambles both

1109
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 1: like simultaneous, Like both of these like ridiculously like when

1110
00:56:50,840 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 1: you combine them, like it's just a very unlikely thing.

1111
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 1: And and like in game, maybe a quarterback or one

1112
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:58,239
Speaker 1: carry for zero yards and all of a sudden, like

1113
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: his probable up to like a half a yard, it

1114
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 1: should still be at zero.

1115
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 2: And I got a Kirt Cousin's.

1116
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 1: Type of situation, and it's like, okay, you're just gonna

1117
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 1: hammer the under. So like noticing things like that again,

1118
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 1: it just kind of comes with experience. But yeah, there

1119
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 1: are definitely situations where an NBA as well, where there

1120
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 1: just could be like a normal rotation with a guy,

1121
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: you know, he usually goes out, uh for you know,

1122
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 1: with six four to six minutes left in the first quarter,

1123
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 1: and then he'll come in and play the whole second

1124
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 1: and because you know he'll he'll maybe he didn't have

1125
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 1: a great first quarter, and all of a sudden his

1126
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 1: prop will be dropping when he's not even in the game,

1127
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 1: and it's like, but he was he wasn't expected to

1128
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 1: play this part of the quarter anyway, Like his prop

1129
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 1: shouldn't be dropping. So uh, just you know, being aware

1130
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 1: of those situations. Yeah, I think that's a that's a great.

1131
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 2: Great point.

1132
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,439
Speaker 1: Uh, I guess, uh we will let's close it out

1133
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 1: with uh let's see, Yeah, let's close it out with this.

1134
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 1: What would you say is the ultimate thrill? Betting a

1135
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 1: player priority of mine was going to be?

1136
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 2: But what he got? Like you, what's your favorite? What

1137
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 2: gets you the most hype?

1138
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 1: Just betting betting a player brought yours.

1139
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 4: Is also kind of correlated to the point I'm going

1140
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 4: to have, But it's the the rooting for it experience,

1141
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 4: especially in person with you know, people that followed me

1142
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 4: in the app. We were in New Jersey at that

1143
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 4: event and I had I gave out Dalton Schultz under

1144
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 4: whatever it was forty two and a half receiving yards

1145
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 4: on convinced me, and we were at the bar and

1146
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 4: on the very first drive.

1147
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 3: He was wide open.

1148
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 4: It was like an out route for about ten fifteen

1149
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 4: yards and he dropped it and a lot of people

1150
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 4: turned and looked at me. I didn't even know if

1151
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 4: they knew I was there, and I was like, thank god,

1152
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 4: you know.

1153
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 3: Thank god he dropped dropped that.

1154
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 4: And then you know, right before the half ended, he

1155
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 4: caught like a forty yard touchdown and everybody's yeah, everybody's freaking,

1156
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 4: Like when CJ shout threw it deep. I'm like, well,

1157
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 4: thank god, there's no way that's Dalton Schultz under that ball.

1158
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:04,920
Speaker 4: And sure enough it was, so you know, if he

1159
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 4: needs two more yards in the second half, I'm thinking

1160
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 4: it's cooked. And then sure enough, he doesn't catch a

1161
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 4: ball the rest of the way. But it's just the

1162
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 4: ebbs and flows when it comes to sweating player props,

1163
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 4: especially in person, we're around people that have the same bet,

1164
00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 4: you can't beat it in my opinion.

1165
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and especially like when you start getting you know,

1166
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: multiple when you have like multiple bets on a game,

1167
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 1: and it's like, you know, it kind of like all

1168
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you can see your prospects like rapidly improved.

1169
00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: But then a bet you thought you were going to

1170
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 1: cast the whole time suddenly becomes a sweat. Like I

1171
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 1: remember in that same game, I think I was on

1172
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:43,720
Speaker 1: like Houston. I think they probably were the underdog, if

1173
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. In that game, I think I was

1174
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 1: on you know, a bunch of other things that hit,

1175
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 1: and but I also had like what I thought was

1176
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,920
Speaker 1: going to be a gimme, which was Damien Pierce unders

1177
00:59:53,960 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: because I was like, this guy's not even seeing the

1178
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 1: field like they they are completely disinterested in using Damian Pierce.

1179
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, the Texans started blowing him

1180
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 1: out so bad that Damian Pierce short enough comes on

1181
01:00:03,920 --> 01:00:05,440
Speaker 1: the field and I'm like, oh man, it's gonna be

1182
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:07,200
Speaker 1: a sweat. I guess that one's cooked. But then he

1183
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,479
Speaker 1: just got stuck like four or five times. I'm like, well,

1184
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 1: I guess, you know, It's just it is kind of exhilarating.

1185
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, but I mean I cannot beat the under

1186
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 1: half a yard. I always love those. Anytime they pop up,

1187
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 1: you'll see I think the famous one that was the

1188
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: Ray Ray McLeod that we were on in I want

1189
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 1: to say, the playoffs a couple of years ago with

1190
01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 1: the Niners against the Seahawks. But it every so often

1191
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 1: you'll see under half a yard, and that's because books

1192
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 1: aren't journally gonna post a reception prop if it's not

1193
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 1: one and a half or more like, they're not going

1194
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 1: to post half a reception, so they'll post the yards instead.

1195
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 2: And you could still hit that even if he catches

1196
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: the ball.

1197
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 1: Guys could catch the ball for zero yards or in

1198
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 1: a guy like Mcloud's case, I remember thinking, if he

1199
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 1: catches the ball, it's a good chance. It's like a

1200
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:58,240
Speaker 1: bubble screen three yards behind the line of scrimmage. That's

1201
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 1: way too predictable anyway, and we just get so like

1202
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 1: there are situations where I've hit like under half a

1203
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 1: yard where a guy's caught a pass or even sometimes two.

1204
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 1: You can see that with running backs if they just

1205
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 1: get blown up in the backfield, so which is always fun.

1206
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's That's that's why those unders can be fun.

1207
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 1: And uh, you're just rooting for anything else to happen,

1208
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 1: but that it's just it's.

1209
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 2: Just like a very very unique kind of stuff.

1210
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 4: That epic ray Ariy McLeod the third under a half

1211
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:30,840
Speaker 4: receiving yards that kind of like I said, it correlates

1212
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 4: with mine. We were in New York for that and

1213
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 4: I think we were watching part of that game in

1214
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 4: the office and people were shouting when he checked into

1215
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 4: the game. He was only going to play you know,

1216
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 4: a handful of snaps, but you knew when he's in

1217
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 4: the game, everybody's screaming out. And then we're watching him,

1218
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 4: you know, run a wheel route and he doesn't get

1219
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,919
Speaker 4: a target. But yeah, those are exciting, but it's it's

1220
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 4: way more exciting when you're watching it out and about

1221
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 4: and with people that you know are on the same

1222
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 4: bed as you.

1223
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 1: And it's it's I mean, and likewise, I honestly, some

1224
01:01:58,200 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 1: it sounds might sound weird, but I'm of the most

1225
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 1: visceral I guess, like experience I've had are actually losing

1226
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 1: bets that like you thought you were going to win it.

1227
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:09,600
Speaker 1: It's just like such a but He's like it makes

1228
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: me feel alive. Like I remember this one from last

1229
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 1: year where, uh, like I don't think I was having

1230
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: a particularly good day in general, which is always fun

1231
01:02:19,720 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: and uh, but like one bet, I was like, all right,

1232
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 1: I'm definitely catching this.

1233
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 2: Catching this bet.

1234
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 1: Is I had like low Jordan Humphrey under like nine

1235
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 1: and a half or ten and a half receiving yards

1236
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 1: or something like that, or maybe it's even thirteen and

1237
01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 1: a half, like essentially expecting him not to get more

1238
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 1: than one catch, and.

1239
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 2: The Broncos were like blowing out the other team.

1240
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 1: They shouldn't have been passing at all, and for some reason,

1241
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 1: Sean Payton just called like this, like play action drag

1242
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:47,959
Speaker 1: route on four wide.

1243
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 2: With them up like twenty five in the fourth quarter.

1244
01:02:51,040 --> 01:02:52,040
Speaker 2: Sure enough, will.

1245
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 1: Jordan Humphrey catches it wide open and goes like forty

1246
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 1: yards for a touchdown.

1247
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 2: And I'm like, oh my god.

1248
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 3: Like what those are the ones we remember?

1249
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 4: The worst beat of all time was still to this day,

1250
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 4: the one both Stucky and iron.

1251
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 3: We had Jimmy Graham under whatever.

1252
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 4: His prop was, It was probably like fifteen and a

1253
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 4: half yards and he did jack shit for fifty nine

1254
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 4: minutes and fifty seconds. But on the last meaningless play

1255
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 4: of the game, again they were like on the twenty

1256
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 4: yard line, they would he would have to catch a

1257
01:03:26,320 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 4: touchdown for this bet to lose. He just does a

1258
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 4: one handed, nonchalant catching in the back of the end zone,

1259
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:35,120
Speaker 4: just runs the locker room.

1260
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:37,360
Speaker 3: His career is probably over at that point.

1261
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 4: He returned to play another season, but we thought, what

1262
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 4: the like, that was the worst beat of all time

1263
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:46,280
Speaker 4: for me and Stucky at the same time. So, yeah,

1264
01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:48,920
Speaker 4: sometimes you remember the divy losses, the bad beats, I

1265
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 4: should say, then you do the win.

1266
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:53,280
Speaker 1: Sometimes there's gonna be so many ways that you can

1267
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 1: have bad beats. But yeah, it's always fun and this

1268
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:02,360
Speaker 1: was this is fun talking some propser. That'll do it

1269
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 1: for today's episode of The Action Hour podcast.

1270
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 2: Thank you everybody for tuning in. Hopefully we're able to teach.

1271
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 1: You a thing or two, even if you were a

1272
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 1: little bit more experienced in terms of your process. And

1273
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 1: we'd like to teach people how to fish over here,

1274
01:04:17,680 --> 01:04:20,520
Speaker 1: not just you know, give out the picks, because I

1275
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: think that that's always going to be more valuable and

1276
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:24,560
Speaker 1: more rewarding.

1277
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:25,439
Speaker 2: For the long term.

1278
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 1: But of course you can always check out our what

1279
01:04:29,560 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 1: we are on by following us in the Action Network

1280
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 1: at Sean is at the Underscarage Maker. I'm at Chris Raybund.

1281
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 1: We're at those same handles on X don't forget code

1282
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 1: pod to zero.

1283
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 2: For twenty dollars off.

1284
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 1: At actionnetwork dot com slash Pro, you can use code

1285
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 1: pod to zero for twenty dollars off an annual Action

1286
01:04:52,560 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: Pro subscription till next time pickish much. Action Network reminds

1287
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1288
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1289
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler