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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the showing.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. When do

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Speaker 2: we have crystal?

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do lots of things happening here in this

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Speaker 1: town this week. We've got a little Meet the Candidate

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Speaker 1: segment for you, all of the individuals who are vying.

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Speaker 4: To be the next Speaker of the House. Not that

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Speaker 4: I know why you would.

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Speaker 1: Want that job in particular, but some people do, so

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Speaker 1: we'll tell you about that. We also have an interesting

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Speaker 1: situation where a number of Republicans are very mad at

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Speaker 1: Democrats for failing to bail out Kevin McCarthy. And there

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Speaker 1: was also some retribution enacted on Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer.

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Speaker 1: They're kicked out at their little special offices in the Capitol,

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Speaker 1: so all of the fallout here, we'll get into that.

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Speaker 1: We've also got a really bad jobs report that just

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Speaker 1: came out. There's another one that's coming out on Friday.

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Speaker 1: We'll see if that confirms the bad news, so we'll

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Speaker 1: get into that as well. New numbers with regard to

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Speaker 1: how much Americans would like to see a party other

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Speaker 1: than the Democrats and Republicans succeed, and it's actually surprising

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Speaker 1: who is most interested in moving in third party direction,

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Speaker 1: which could have some implications for the RFK Junior.

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Speaker 4: Impending independent run. So we'll get into that.

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Speaker 1: And Michael lewis once again under fire, this time for

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Speaker 1: what appears to be a very sympathetic portrait of Sam

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Speaker 1: Bankmin Freed.

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Speaker 4: As he faces chial this week.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to be joined by a United Auto

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Speaker 1: worker who is on strike currently to give us an

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Speaker 1: update from the ground about what is going on and what.

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Speaker 4: They are hoping to achieve through their strikes.

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Speaker 2: So a lot to get into, that's right, and I

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Speaker 2: just want to say once again thank you to all

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Speaker 2: the prem subscribers.

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Speaker 3: We've got the upcoming focus group in Atlanta.

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Speaker 2: You guys will be interested in that specifically, about what

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Speaker 2: we're going to be talking about with third parties. We're

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Speaker 2: going to talk to Democratic voter this time about how

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Speaker 2: they feel about Biden. And also thank you all the

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Speaker 2: Premum subs helping us support Jordan Sheridan other on the

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Speaker 2: ground reporting efforts as we bring more of an effort

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Speaker 2: in all of these cases.

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Speaker 3: You know, we're having a UAW worker on.

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Speaker 2: It's better to not hear from us, it's better to

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Speaker 2: hear from them, and so that is what you are helping.

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Speaker 2: Support Breakingpoints dot com if you are able, let's get

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Speaker 2: to the speakers race. Just some shocking turn of develop

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Speaker 2: I feel like Chris I have lived several lifetimes in

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, just from Diane Feinstein's death onwards.

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Speaker 2: It just feels like things keep on and rolls. Now

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Speaker 2: we've lost the speaker. Counterpoints did a great job yesterday

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Speaker 2: summarizing Kevin McCarthy and how he's decided to go right

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Speaker 2: off into the sunset.

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Speaker 3: I actually support that. I support people.

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Speaker 2: Losing a vote and then having the dignity to be like,

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Speaker 2: you know what, I'm out now though absolute chaos. The

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Speaker 2: calls are everywhere here in Washington. We now two official

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Speaker 2: bids for speaker, both of which are actually quite formidable.

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Speaker 2: I could see both succeeding. Let's start with Congressman Steve Scalis.

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Speaker 2: Let's go and put this up there on the screen,

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Speaker 2: he announced yesterday in a letter to his colleagues. Quote

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Speaker 2: it is with that sense of responsibility and purpose I

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Speaker 2: am seeking the conference's nomination for Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 2: You know my leadership style. I have displayed this as

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Speaker 2: your majority leader and whip. I have approven track record

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Speaker 2: of bringing together diverse array of viewpoints within our conference

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Speaker 2: to build consensus where others thought it impossible. The other

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Speaker 2: one is also a very different style of speaker bid.

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Speaker 2: Congressman Jim Jordan. Let's go and put this up there

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Speaker 2: on the screen, he announces. Quote, we agreed at the

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Speaker 2: beginning of the Congress there are free fundamental things the

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Speaker 2: House must do. Pass the bills that need to be passed,

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Speaker 2: do the oversight and reign in the spending. Working with

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Speaker 2: Chairman Green in our leadership, I helped to deliver the

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Speaker 2: most significant legislative accomplishment this Congress, the strongest immigration and

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Speaker 2: border enforcement bill ever. With other committee chairs and members

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Speaker 2: of the Judiciary Committee, I am doing the oversight and

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Speaker 2: holding this administration accountable. I have been amongst the leaders

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Speaker 2: pushing for fiscal discipline with my career, and then at

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Speaker 2: the end he says, we must do it together as

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Speaker 2: a conference. I respectfully ask for your support as Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House of Representatives. Both of these are critical

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Speaker 2: actual bids and really have two diverging viewpoints. But I

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Speaker 2: would be remiss if I did not mention the dark

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Speaker 2: horse candidate who has been now nominated by Marjorie Taylor

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Speaker 2: Green and by Congressman Troy Nilles. President Donald Trump, former

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Speaker 2: President of the United States. As you remember, you do

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Speaker 2: not have to be a actual sitting member of Congress

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Speaker 2: to be the speaker, even though it has never happened.

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Speaker 2: The rules don't say that Trump himself actually weighed in

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Speaker 2: on that bid. Here's what you have to say.

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Speaker 5: A lot of people of the big ally speaker. All

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Speaker 5: I can say is, Wilton, whatever.

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Speaker 6: It's best floral the country of the Republican by you.

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Speaker 7: Just hi.

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Speaker 8: People say we have some.

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Speaker 6: Great, great people. You just take a job.

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Speaker 5: A lot of people have asked me about it. I'm

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Speaker 5: focused leading, I don't know you. I'm shooting oo much.

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Speaker 5: Thanks fifty the president. So my focus is totally under

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Speaker 5: that if I can help them do it in the process,

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Speaker 5: I would do. There's some great people in the Republican

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Speaker 5: Party that could do.

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Speaker 6: A great job at Street.

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Speaker 2: Trump also posted this on truth Social yesterday. Let's put

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Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. What do we see? Oh,

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Speaker 2: it's Trump in the photoshops into the Speaker's galley, wearing

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Speaker 2: with the gavel, wearing his mate America grating a hat. Chris,

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Speaker 2: I was telling you before the show, I should note

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Speaker 2: that would actually be against the dress growths of which

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Speaker 2: I support. By the way, I do not believe that

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Speaker 2: hat should be worn on the floor, and especially not

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Speaker 2: by the Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 3: But there we have it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think one of the ways we can

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Speaker 2: summarize it and look at it for everyone is that

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Speaker 2: Steve Scalise is probably the more establishment type of Republican.

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Speaker 2: This is the former leader. He has been now in

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Speaker 2: the position for almost a decade twenty fourteen, he was

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Speaker 2: the whip. He has good relationships with others. He has

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Speaker 2: a very different style actually than Kevin McCarthy, and behind

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Speaker 2: the scenes of retentions between the two. But he would

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Speaker 2: buy no by he buy all estimations would be the

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Speaker 2: quote unquote establishment choice. The thing is, and I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm shocked that his scalise is running. I didn't even

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Speaker 2: think he would be a viable candidate just because, as

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Speaker 2: we raise, I mean, this is a man who's been

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Speaker 2: put through the ringer. He survived that horrible mass shooting

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Speaker 2: in twenty seventeen against Congressman.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Then you know, he currently has been diagnosed with an

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Speaker 2: aggressive form of blood cancer and is currently undergoing chemo therapy.

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Speaker 4: I I believe he was just diagnosed, Like we just

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Speaker 4: learned about it last month.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, so, I mean, who knows how long it's been

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Speaker 2: going on. But at the very least he has to

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Speaker 2: wear like a KA ninety five mask, because, like infection

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Speaker 2: is that.

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Speaker 3: Much of a threat.

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Speaker 2: Not to mention when you were speaker, it's not just

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Speaker 2: the job here. You got to fly your ass all

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Speaker 2: over this country raising.

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Speaker 4: Money money, So that's part of the job.

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Speaker 3: One thing.

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Speaker 2: Jim Jordan also actually, you know, if you'll recall, I

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Speaker 2: always said I thought he was a dark horse candidate

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Speaker 2: just because this is a man with incredible amount of

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Speaker 2: he has an incredible amount of credibility with the Freedom Caucus.

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Speaker 2: He has made multiple stands against Speaker Bainner and against

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Speaker 2: Speaker Ryan, but he voted for Kevin McCarthy this time around. Critically,

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Speaker 2: you know, Matt Gates and that wing. All of them

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Speaker 2: have said, oh yeah, I would like Speaker Jordan, I

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Speaker 2: would like Speaker Skilly.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see where they line up.

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Speaker 2: People like Thomas Massey, who also voted for Kevin McCarthy,

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Speaker 2: but still, you know, more of a hardliner Republican. He

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Speaker 2: came out and he supported Jordan. So I'm curious what

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Speaker 2: you think. You know, these are probably our top two candidates.

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Speaker 2: The Speaker could be one of those two. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we should also remember that chaos.

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Speaker 3: Who the hell knows.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, both these guys could fall, and three weeks from

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Speaker 2: now we could have a totally different Speaker whose name

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Speaker 2: I didn't even just mention.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you could end up very easily with the

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Speaker 1: situation where since you have these two individuals in the

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Speaker 1: race and they're splitting the votes and you can't come

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Speaker 1: to that majority consensus, that some other dark horse emerges

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Speaker 1: as sort of like a consensus pick who's able to

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Speaker 1: get across the finish line.

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Speaker 4: There's just no way of.

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Speaker 1: Saying, you know, in terms of their ideological differences, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure it matters that much because as we saw

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Speaker 1: with McCarthy and as we've seen with previous Republican speakers,

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Speaker 1: it's less about what they really want to do and

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Speaker 1: more about what their caucus is going to permit them

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Speaker 1: to do. Good point, and so you know, even we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about Ukraine AID. I think part of

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Speaker 1: why McCarthy basically had to step down there were no

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Speaker 1: real moves left for him on the chessboard because if

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Speaker 1: he made some deal with Democrats to stay in office,

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Speaker 1: and I think if he had offered them much of anything, certainly,

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Speaker 1: if he had offered them like okay, I'll bring up

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Speaker 1: the Ukraine AID, they would have backed him. They would

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Speaker 1: have kept him in office. Then he's screwed with regard

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Speaker 1: to fundraising. He screwed with regard to the like his

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Speaker 1: never ending nightmare with the caucus and with the Matt

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Speaker 1: Gates wing and the caucuss would just be beginning. So that

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Speaker 1: was like not a good and viable option. And then

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Speaker 1: on the other side, it didn't look like there was

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Speaker 1: really anything he could do to placate this group of

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Speaker 1: holdouts because he'd already given the store away to the

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Speaker 1: like what much left was there for him to give them?

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Speaker 1: So it was a completely untenable situation. And whoever is

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Speaker 1: able to succeed and end up as the next speaker,

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Speaker 1: which could take some time to resolve, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is going to be subject to the exact same identical

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Speaker 1: set of pressures. So again, I mean, I guess my

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Speaker 1: biggest analysis is I'm perplexed why anyone would want this job.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of self delusion here in

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Speaker 1: Washington that like, oh, well, I'm the guy, and I'll

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Speaker 1: be different and they'll respect me, and I'll be able

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Speaker 1: to put Probably the only one who actually would be

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Speaker 1: able to pull it off and pull them together is

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But I don't think anyone's really even He

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem like he's really taking any of that particularly seriously.

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Speaker 2: Privately, I believe I think Trump would be the best speaker.

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Speaker 2: You know, why you can't cross him. It's like, what

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Speaker 2: are going to are going to vote against Trump? And

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Speaker 2: Trump is going to primary alphas. You can't speak out

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Speaker 2: against this man. I mean, he could negotiate with confidence.

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Speaker 2: He could basically do whatever he wanted. You want evidence

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Speaker 2: for that, Look at whenever he was president, all the

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Speaker 2: people who even the people who voted against him, they

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Speaker 2: did it very quietly and they never made it into

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Speaker 2: a thing. They certainly never would have pulled any of

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Speaker 2: the Shenan against that they did against Kevin McCarthy.

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Speaker 3: And that's the other one.

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Speaker 2: If you want to keep Matt Gates in line, who

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Speaker 2: does make Matt Gates answer to Trump, mar to Retaylor

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Speaker 2: Green and everybody else who is in the party. You

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Speaker 2: would just have to hold your nose and you would

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Speaker 2: have to make do so. I actually think Trump would

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Speaker 2: be a very strong candidate. Now I do not believe

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Speaker 2: he actually would be the person who. I don't believe

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Speaker 2: he ultimately will end up in that position because there's

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Speaker 2: a whole logistically and all kinds of things, but you

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Speaker 2: know it's out there. Let's also, though, talk about the

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Speaker 2: race for number two, Steve Scalise, if he were to

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Speaker 2: get the job, what that would look like. Let's put

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Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. There's actually a lot

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Speaker 2: of jockeying going on behind the scenes right now. So

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Speaker 2: in terms of who would be the Republican Majority leader. Remember,

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Speaker 2: the leader is actually the number two position because the

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Speaker 2: number one is the speaker. Whenever you have the majority,

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Speaker 2: Steve Scalise vying for the speaker, which means that Tom Emmer,

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Speaker 2: who is currently the number three the majority whip, is

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Speaker 2: currently leading for a majority leader and also has been

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Speaker 2: racking up a decent amount of endorsements. However, at least

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Speaker 2: Stephonic appears from making a big move for the number

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Speaker 2: two slot in the party. Remember, she got a lot

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Speaker 2: of credibility during the impeachment fight, especially the second impeachment

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Speaker 2: where she stood up and I believe he spoke on

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Speaker 2: behalf of Trump. Trump has always admired her. He spoke

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Speaker 2: on behalf r He said, this is the potential vice

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Speaker 2: president here. I mean, she has a lot of credibility

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Speaker 2: I think with Trump at the very least, which of

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Speaker 2: course would matter. Representative Jim Banks, who's one of those

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Speaker 2: maga ish type Republicans, came out an endorseder just yesterday,

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Speaker 2: so that also would be a very big fight. But

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Speaker 2: all of this depends on Scalise not getting the speakership.

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Speaker 2: We don't know what the whipcount is right now, so

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Speaker 2: in terms of the vote, the vote is supposed to

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Speaker 2: be next Wednesday. Tuesday, the House will come back in session.

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Speaker 2: Everybody will fly. They'll have a caucus meeting on Tuesday

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Speaker 2: where they cast the initial round of ballots. Wednesday is

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Speaker 2: supposed to be actual vote on the floor of the

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Speaker 2: House of Representatives. Nobody expects, at least as of right now,

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Speaker 2: that there will be a prevailing vote for speaker on

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Speaker 2: that ballot, although I think one scenario where that might

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Speaker 2: be possible is that the Republicans say, we're not leaving

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Speaker 2: this room on to Tuesday night till we figure this out,

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Speaker 2: and then we go when you vote to eighteen on

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Speaker 2: the day of the election on Wednesday, they could just

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Speaker 2: say we're going to figure this out in here, whoever

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Speaker 2: ends up winning, and we can all agree.

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Speaker 3: For the entire caucus. Not a single person can.

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Speaker 2: Vote no, or if they do, you know, maybe they'll

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Speaker 2: just not show up that day sometimes, you know, some

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Speaker 2: sort of absence thing in order to rig the vote

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Speaker 2: if they can't stomach it. I could see that playing out,

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Speaker 2: just because they're like, we're sick of the headlines, we're

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Speaker 2: sick of the chaos. Wednesday, We're coming together and we're

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Speaker 2: going to vote for a speaker. But as of today,

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Speaker 2: not a single informed person, including the Congressmen themselves, believe

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Speaker 2: that anything like that is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and remember, nothing can be done in the House

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Speaker 1: until this is taken care of. Yeah, and they just

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Speaker 1: passed that forty five day continuing resolution, So you have

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Speaker 1: that clock ticking in terms of when that expires. Your

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Speaker 1: face another government shutdown situation. So you know, it's not

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Speaker 1: like there aren't things that they need to do, but

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Speaker 1: you cannot move forward on anything until.

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Speaker 4: You have a Speaker of the House. You know, I

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Speaker 4: don't think.

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Speaker 1: That this situation really gets resolved until the next election

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Speaker 1: because and I'm not saying there won't be a there

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Speaker 1: will be some Speaker of the House. They'll figure something out,

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Speaker 1: someone will end up in the position. But in terms

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Speaker 1: of the level of chaos and the dissidence and the

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Speaker 1: way that this is all going down, I really don't

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Speaker 1: think that there is any resolution until either Republicans have

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Speaker 1: a good showing and they increase their margin because all

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Speaker 1: of this political leverage in the hands of the Matt

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Speaker 1: Gates wing of the party comes from the fact that

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Speaker 1: they have a three vote majority. That's where that comes from.

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Speaker 1: And you now have some members of the Republican Caucus,

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Speaker 1: Mike Lawler in particular, very vocal that they want to

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Speaker 1: have a vote to expel Matt Gates.

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Speaker 4: That would then further decrease your margin.

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Speaker 1: You know, so George Santos, who's under multiple federal indictment.

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Speaker 1: So the margin is as narrow as it could possibly be.

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Speaker 1: So you either have a result where they expand their

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Speaker 1: margin and whoever is the next speaker House has a

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Speaker 1: little bit more wiggle room to work with, or they

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Speaker 1: lose their majority, which is very possible, and you know,

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Speaker 1: you end up with a Democratic House and you end

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Speaker 1: up going in that direction. So I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to continue to see this type of brinksmanship and you know,

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Speaker 1: unsettled nature of the Republican Caucus, just given the nature

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Speaker 1: of their narrow margin, given the fact that you have

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Speaker 1: a handful of people who are willing to do you know,

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Speaker 1: willing to cause chaos, willing to.

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Speaker 4: You know, go against whoever. Their leaders are unafraid of

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Speaker 4: any of that.

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Speaker 1: So you're going to continue to have that dynamic until

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Speaker 1: you end up with a different, a different situation, a

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Speaker 1: different either caucus leading the House or a larger margin

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Speaker 1: for the Republican.

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Speaker 2: You are exactly right, and that fits very much with

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Speaker 2: the topic of the day, which is Ukraine. Ukraine money

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Speaker 2: is very much in doubt right now. Jim Jordan will

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Speaker 2: bring you a little bit of what he had to

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Speaker 2: say on the subject. But the White House is absolutely

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Speaker 2: freaking out and losing their mind. President Biden making that

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Speaker 2: clear in a press conference yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 9: This array on Capitol Hill after your conversation with allies yesterday.

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Speaker 6: Worry you that you won't be able to deliver the

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Speaker 6: aid that the US has promised to Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: It doesn't worry me, and but I know there are

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Speaker 8: a majority of members of the House and Senate in

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Speaker 8: both parties who have said that they support funding Ukraine

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Speaker 8: with your I'm going to be announcing very short a

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Speaker 8: major speech I'm going to make on this issue and

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Speaker 8: why it's critically important for the United States and our

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Speaker 8: allies that we keep our commitment.

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Speaker 9: President, are you also concerned about the rest of your

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Speaker 9: domestic and foreign policy and issuative is being internal because

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Speaker 9: of what we saw happened yesterday, is dysfunction in Congress

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Speaker 9: of the chaos that we saw on the House side.

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Speaker 9: Does that concern you in any way.

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Speaker 8: The dysfunction always concerns me. The programs that we have

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Speaker 8: argued over, we've passed bipartisanly. I'm not concerned that they're

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Speaker 8: going to all of a sudden commit try to undo them.

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Speaker 6: Although there will.

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Speaker 8: Be some, There will be some. I'm sure there's half

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Speaker 8: a dozen or more extreme magnane Republican Republicans who would

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Speaker 8: like to eliminate just about everything I've done.

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Speaker 2: So Biden saying he's going to give a big speech

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Speaker 2: on Ukraine. If I was a Ukraine person, by.

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Speaker 3: The way, I would not want that.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't want Biden, one of the most leave popular presidents,

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Speaker 2: to be the main cheerleader.

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Speaker 3: But hey, you know, go for it. I guess I'm

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Speaker 3: sure you'll convince us.

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Speaker 2: That big thing whenever it comes to the speaker race

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Speaker 2: is that Scalise and Jordan, none of them have made

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Speaker 2: Ukraine a priority. In fact, Kevin McCarthy is the best

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Speaker 2: friend that Ukraine had whenever it came to somebody who

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Speaker 2: had any even semblance of credibility with both sides. Just

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Speaker 2: to give you an idea, this is Jim Jordan, straight

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Speaker 2: from his mouth on what he would do whenever it

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Speaker 2: comes to Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Let's take a listen, what about Ukraine?

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Speaker 2: Are you?

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Speaker 4: Are you willing to move forward with an aid package

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Speaker 4: for Ukraine?

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Speaker 7: If your speaker, I'm against that. What I understand is

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Speaker 7: at some point we're going to have to deal with

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Speaker 7: this appropation process in the right way, and we're going

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Speaker 7: to try to do that in the next to be

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Speaker 7: down to forty one days. The most pressing issue on

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Speaker 7: Americans mind is not Ukraine. It is the border situation,

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Speaker 7: and it is crime on the streets.

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Speaker 2: The most pressing situation on American's mind is not Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Crystal on that, He's one hundred percent correct. The big question, though,

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Speaker 2: is about where Steleeve Scalise has this. We actually pulled

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Speaker 2: some scores. There's a group here in Washington called Republicans

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine. They're not really Republicans, they're like Bill Crystal

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Speaker 2: Biden voters. But they've created a very useful score, at

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Speaker 2: least for me, about where to judge where people are

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Speaker 2: in terms of the votes on Ukraine. And this is

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Speaker 2: according to their scoreesheet. What Steve Scalie and Jim Jordan have.

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Speaker 2: Let's put it up there on the screen. So they

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Speaker 2: have given Steve Scalise a quote B grade overall. That's

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Speaker 2: based on his voting record. The voting record is that

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Speaker 2: he voted I on the Ukraine len Lease Act, the

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Speaker 2: original one, the Ukraine Supplemental Appropriation, the extra fifty billion

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Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty two, but he voted NO on

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Speaker 2: three critical amendments which we've excited more to Ukraine. He

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Speaker 2: did ultimately support that three hundred million dollars to Ukraine

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Speaker 2: with no statements currently on the record.

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Speaker 3: They call him a bee. Jordan though is a no.

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Speaker 2: He voted I only on the initial fifty billion dollars

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Speaker 2: that was granted to Ukraine and NO on basically every

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Speaker 2: single vote since they give him an F. Obviously, Trump,

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Speaker 2: I don't have to tell you where he stands on Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: But I think that one of the important reasons why

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Speaker 2: this matters for the entire Ukraine debate is it is

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Speaker 2: more in peril today than it ever has been. Politically, Republicans,

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Speaker 2: the vast majority of Republicans polling shows do not support

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Speaker 2: more aid to Ukraine. Now, that hasn't necessarily mattered whenever

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Speaker 2: it comes to the votes, and McCarthy was stuck very

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Speaker 2: much between a rock and a hard place. It was

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Speaker 2: interesting in his speech after he was defeated as speaker,

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Speaker 2: he actually likened Putin to Hitler and was talking about

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Speaker 2: bringing some stuff up in the past. So I think

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Speaker 2: his personal loyalties absolutely lied with Ukraine. And Zelenski and

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Speaker 2: others had made comments in the past that he had

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Speaker 2: said privately, yeah, look, I support you all, figure out

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Speaker 2: the votes. Well, that's not what Steve Scalise actually believes

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Speaker 2: at all, at least in terms of the public record.

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Speaker 2: Scalise himself, given his voting record, he did not vote

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Speaker 2: I on those three critical amendments in the past. While

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Speaker 2: he may have supported the three hundred million, is he

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Speaker 2: going to support the one hundred billion more that the

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Speaker 2: Republicans in the Senate and the Democrats in Biden want

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Speaker 2: to push through with Jordan's actually a completely It's a

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Speaker 2: known quantity.

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Speaker 3: He's like, no, I'm totally against it.

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Speaker 2: So, I mean the idea that a hundred billion more

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Speaker 2: is going to Ukraine, I just simply I can't believe

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Speaker 2: a scenario where that would happen. I'll give the other

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Speaker 2: side chaos, as I have said that chaos is a

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Speaker 2: ladder and the words of the great Little finger. They

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Speaker 2: could extract some margin which would weaken the speakership akin

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Speaker 2: to the motion to vacate and remove some of the

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Speaker 2: barriers to what a discharge petition might look like, and

440
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 2: so that would make it so that it would be

441
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 2: possible to maybe get some Ukraine aid on the floor.

442
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 2: But with both of theseidates, and it's not just me

443
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: saying this is most congressional analysts that can look at

444
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 2: it right now, even another dollar to Ukraine or even

445
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 2: the transfer vote does not look likely anytime soon going

446
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 2: through the House of Representatives. That will, not, however, crystal

447
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 2: stop the Senate from trying to get more money for Ukraine.

448
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, listen, I think honestly, like I said before,

449
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: I don't think their ideology really matters here. I don't

450
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 1: think whether it was Kevin McCarthy or whether it is

451
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan, I don't think they were

452
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 1: going to have the political strength and ability to bring

453
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: a vote for Ukraine aid to the floor, at least

454
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 1: if they want to keep their job as Speaker. Yes,

455
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 1: I just don't think that you can at this point,

456
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: given where the Republican caucus is, and given how hardline

457
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 1: especially the dissident faction is on this particular issue. I mean,

458
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 1: this was part of what led to the downfall of McCarthy,

459
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 1: these allegations from Matt Gates that there was some sort

460
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 1: of a secret deal with Democrats that he denied, but

461
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 1: Gates was pushing forward. But that's part of what led

462
00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: to McCarthy's downfall. I do not think whoever it is

463
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: who ends up as Speaker of the House next can

464
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 1: bring this vote to the floor. The only way it

465
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: gets done, as far as I can see, is through

466
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 1: some sort of legislative parliamentary maneuver, a discharge petition or

467
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 1: some other thing arcane maneuver that I'm unaware of. That's

468
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: the only way I think that they are able to

469
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 1: move a forward. You do still have Biden's right, You

470
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 1: do still have if you had a vote in the House,

471
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 1: it would still.

472
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 3: Pass well how much? How much though, because that's the question.

473
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 1: The because you would have I mean, they only Republicans

474
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 1: only have a three vote margin, So if all of

475
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: the Democrats are voting for it, you only need three

476
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 1: three Republicans to get it across the finish lines. I

477
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: think it's very clear there's a pretty large majority in

478
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: the House.

479
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 4: Honestly, you're right.

480
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 2: I meant in terms of what he said, the majority

481
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: of both parts.

482
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 3: I guess you know what.

483
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 2: You're right because rhetorically what he said is that a

484
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 2: majority of each chamber in the Congress to support it.

485
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: You're absolutely correct.

486
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: Yes, I thought he was talking about the majority of

487
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 2: Republicans because I'd flagged previously that the majority of Republicans.

488
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 1: It's actually completely I think Republicans are pretty split at

489
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 1: this point in terms of pretty split down the middle

490
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 1: in terms of the caucus, although it's not a hundred

491
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 1: percent clear. But yeah, if you had a straight up

492
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 1: and down vote in the House, it would pass.

493
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 4: But it's a question of getting to that vote.

494
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: And like I said, I don't think there's any way

495
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: in hell anybody who wants to remain Speaker of the

496
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,120
Speaker 1: House can bring that vote. I will say I differ

497
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: from you a little bit on the Biden speech. In

498
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: that listen, he owes it at this point to the

499
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 1: American people to explain what the hell he's thinking about.

500
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 3: I agree with you.

501
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: I meant in terms of, like, if you want AID

502
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 2: to continue to have somewhat of a biparson majority, I'm like, yeah,

503
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: good luck, give it to the unpopular president on a

504
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 2: democratic level.

505
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: Agree.

506
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think.

507
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to persuade or dissuade a

508
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: single person with whatever he says.

509
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 4: But I do think he really owes it to.

510
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: Everyone the world, the American people at this point, to

511
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 1: explain what the hell the plan is. And because you know,

512
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 1: the plan had previously been we're going to be all

513
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 1: in through the counter offensive, They're going to take back

514
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: territory and then they'll be in a stronger position and

515
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: then maybe we can think about how to end this conflict. Well,

516
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 1: that did not work out, So what now? That's what

517
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 1: I want to hear from the president of the United States,

518
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 1: And that's what I think he owes people person.

519
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 2: If they don't have a plan, he can try and

520
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: gas lad us. All I want Biden gave us the

521
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 2: plan already. It's called regime change.

522
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 1: Reidential presidential words. Well, that's the thing, Like presidential words matter.

523
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: So if he says something like that, that's important. You know,

524
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 1: whatever sort of line he tries to pull, like, it's

525
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: important to hear at least how he is explaining what

526
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: his view of the conflict is so I welcome this address.

527
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: I hope it's fullsome I'm certainly going to, you know,

528
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: listen very carefully to the words coming out of his

529
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: mouth versus what the actions are that they're taking.

530
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 3: I have no disagreement. I welcome the speech as well.

531
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 2: I think you should have been given us speeches, probably on

532
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,959
Speaker 2: a quarterly basis, as to why we're massivoluing this, as

533
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: to what the goals are, as to what all of.

534
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: That is that said.

535
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: I mean, he's basically told us nothing without nothing for

536
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,679
Speaker 2: Ukraine without Ukraine, which means these government, which is wholly

537
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 2: reliant upon us for basically everything, gets to set the terms.

538
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: That's not a plan. Actually the second plan is in

539
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: terms of the red lines. First F sixteens was going

540
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 2: to start World War three. There's actually a good side

541
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 2: by side analysis every single thing that he has said

542
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: that he eventually reversed on. He reversed himself on F sixteens,

543
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 2: he reversed himself on Abrams tanks, he reversed himself on

544
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: even he pledged at one point no NATO troops would

545
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: be sent to the country. Now the UK is talking

546
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: about sending actual boots on the ground to Ukraine. I mean,

547
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 2: at every step of what he has said that he

548
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: wouldn't do, and what were alleged red lines he eventually flipped.

549
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 2: The only thing hasn't flipped on yet is a no

550
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: fly zone, which I wouldn't put off the table given

551
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,719
Speaker 2: what this administration is and how obsessed they are with Ukraine.

552
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,479
Speaker 2: So I agree with you from a democratic perspective, I

553
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 2: agree completely. From a global perspective, and from an interest

554
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 2: of the peace of the world, I agree that said,

555
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 2: I don't expect to hear anything new. I think his

556
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 2: plan is very simple. He just back Ukraine for as long,

557
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 2: quote unquote, as long as it takes. And it's funny too,

558
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: you know. I've seen a bunch of people say things like, oh,

559
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: Biden gave his word to Ukraine, so how can the

560
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 2: US Congress go back on his word. I'm like, hey,

561
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: you know what, in our system, the president is not

562
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: a king.

563
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 3: The president does not decide.

564
00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: And if we really want to think that statements of

565
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 2: the presidents are official declarations of American policy, as by

566
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: the way, the Russians in the Chinese do, there are

567
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: a whole lot of statements in the past that clash

568
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 2: very much with even allowing or trying to get Ukraine

569
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 2: into NATO. The reason why you can disregard those is

570
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 2: in our system, the Senate of the United States ratifies

571
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 2: all treaties, and that is what our word actually looks like.

572
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 2: The House of Representatives, per our constitution, is the one

573
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 2: that actually appropriates these bills. So he shouldn't be talking

574
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 2: out of his ass if he can promising stuff that

575
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 2: he can't necessarily not even he can't deliver that the

576
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: United States, through our democratic system actually can. So look

577
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: on a personal level, obviously, I support this. I don't

578
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: think Ukraine should get a single dollar more from the

579
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 2: United States, and I think that we should be pursuing

580
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 2: all avenues towards peace. I think that US giving them

581
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: this blank check has been a disaster for American foreign

582
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 2: policy interests has been the complete distractions. Depleted all of

583
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: our weapons stockpiles. We've given them over one hundred billion

584
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: dollars in aid, more than we gave to the Afghan

585
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 2: national security forces through all of twenty years. We've done plenty.

586
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 2: If the Euros want to pick up the tab, go

587
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: for it. But you know what, they don't actually have

588
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: the capacity even if they wanted to. So this is

589
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: going to happen now or it can happen five years

590
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: from now, and there's no reason to waste a couple

591
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 2: hundred billion in the meantime, keep our eye off the

592
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: ball of where our actual threats are, and frankly, just

593
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 2: make our own country less safe. But you know, obviously

594
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: my view is a very standard and at this point

595
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: for people who watch this show.

596
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, in my opinion, all of this gates

597
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: Ko situation has worked down beautiful for me too. Yes,

598
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 1: we avoided a government shutdown. You know, there was no

599
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 1: none of the like mole spending cuts to social spending

600
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 1: that he was advocating for, and that you know, that

601
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: initial appropriations bill that McCarthy tried to pass that they

602
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: rejected even though it had like draconian cuts to every

603
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: social safety net program. So that didn't happen. So I'm

604
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: happy with that. I'm happy that, you know, Ukraine aid

605
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: is being stymied here and that at least there's going

606
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: to be a big debate over whether we move forward

607
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: on that. I'm happy with that and happy to see

608
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 1: the Republican Party torn to shreds and look like chaotic morons.

609
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 3: They can't do anything, so.

610
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: For me, this is all going great. All right, So

611
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: let's talk about this next piece. So, just as a

612
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 1: little bit of background, when you have a position of power,

613
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 1: whether you're in the majority or in the minority, there

614
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: are these like special perks that you get, and some

615
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: of those perks are this is all by tradition. There

616
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 1: are these little offices tucked away in various corners in

617
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: the Capitol, and so if you're in a leadership position

618
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: in your caucus, you traditionally get one of these they

619
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: call them hideaways in the Capitol rather than have to

620
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: go all the way back to the office buildings, which

621
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: are you know, attached to the capital that are not

622
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 1: in that same building. Okay, so Pelosi obviously had one

623
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 1: of these. I don't know what it looked like, but

624
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: it was probably one of the more grand ones because

625
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 1: of her level of prestige. Put this up on the

626
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 1: screen mere hours after taking over as Speaker pro tem

627
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 1: with the ouster of Kevin McCarthy. This dude Representative Patrick mcckennry,

628
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: who's kind of like the placeholder running the votes for

629
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: the next speaker, et cetera, ordered former Speaker Nancy Pelosi

630
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: to vacate her office by Wednesday. He said, please vacate

631
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: the space tomorrow. The room will be re keyed. They

632
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: go on to say Pelosi's currently using a hideaway office

633
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: which only a handful of members received. Given that she

634
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: is speaker. Emerita McCarthy allowed Pelosi to occupy that space. Mckenry,

635
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: who is a McCarthy ally, is clearly less keen on it.

636
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 1: There was additional reporting that also Steady Hoyer, who also

637
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: benefited from one of these hideaway offices, has also been

638
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: informed that he needs to get out of there. It's

639
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: unclear whether Pelosi will actually be able to comply with

640
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: this in time, because she is in California for the

641
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 1: funeral of Diane Feinstein. But again, in terms of how

642
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: this is all working out for me, am I sad

643
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: to see Nancy Pelosi inst anyway. I love special offices.

644
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 4: No, no, I am.

645
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: I love amount of Oh my god, kicked out a rock.

646
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, well, why does she even have an office,

647
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: you know, in the first place. All this stupid courtesy

648
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: nonsense is ridiculous.

649
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: By the way, these hideaway offices, if you ever get

650
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: the chance, they are really nice. I do absolutely think

651
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: that if anybody has the chance, they should be able

652
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: to see them. Have taken a couple of meetings in

653
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 2: them in the past and they're pretty cool because they're

654
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: all in the basement and all of that. And as

655
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: you said, the main reason that people want them is

656
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 2: the actual office is, as we all learn during the

657
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: Jamal Bowman thing, are across the street from the.

658
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: Capital and it is kind of a pain in the

659
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: ad well, especially it's a little far well, especially if

660
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: you're in Rayburn.

661
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 2: So for those who don't know, the Rayburn House Office

662
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 2: Building is, I think it might be a more than

663
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 2: a half mile walk actually from the Capitol, which is

664
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 2: a pain whenever you're running for votes. So there's actually

665
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: a little subway like that people take in the House

666
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: of Representatives.

667
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 3: Is just kind of fun.

668
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: If you're ever here and you're a tourists, you should

669
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: go do it and you can come from the Rayburn

670
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: House Office Building to the floor that's where senators also

671
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: have one from the Heart Senate Office Building, which is

672
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: similarly far from it. But that's why they all want

673
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: a capital office, because they could just be in the

674
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 2: US Capitol. So it's much more a matter of like

675
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 2: pain in the ass factor and all of that that said,

676
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure why the current former Speaker of

677
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 2: the House deserves an office, and especially the former Democratic whip.

678
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 2: Pelosi was like, well, I let Speaker Hastert, whose name

679
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 2: we probably shouldn't talk about it anymore, actually have an

680
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: office whenever he was out of power. But the thing is,

681
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: Crystal Is Pelosi is not just a former speaker. She's

682
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: not even the former current leader of the party, Jaquem

683
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: Jeffries is the only one who should have office space

684
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 2: in the capital.

685
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: Traditionally, it's really only leadership.

686
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 2: She doesn't, as far as I know, have an official

687
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: position of leadership in the Democratic Party.

688
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: You're just another member at this.

689
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: Point, unless you're the secret leader of the Democratic Party,

690
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: which in which way, oh right, then it actually would

691
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: make sense.

692
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: Now I'm starting to understand where things come well.

693
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: Also, people may think differently from the outside, but and

694
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: all of the office space in the separate office buildings

695
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: are also allocated by like seniority. So if you're a

696
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: freshman member of the House, your office is actually really shitty.

697
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: It's usually Rayburne or in Longworth, and it's very small.

698
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: You would think, you know, it's members of the Oh,

699
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: you're in the Senate, you're a member of Congress.

700
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 4: Whatever.

701
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: You would think there might be some grant. No, they're

702
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: just like very standard and actually quite small office spaces

703
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: where you walk into one room, there's like a secretary

704
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: sitting right there, and then usually there's like one small

705
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: office over here, one small office over there, and that's it.

706
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 1: So it's that's why they really covet these like special

707
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: perks of the hideaway office and whatever.

708
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 4: So all of this so speaks.

709
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: To the fact that and I think this is personally

710
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: hilarious that the Republicans are furious that Democrats did not

711
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: rescue Kevin McCarthy's lay mass, which it's like to me,

712
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: why would they, Like, I see no reason why they

713
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: would rescue him. And also it doesn't even seem to

714
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: me like he wanted to be rescued because he did

715
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: not offer them a single thing in terms of trying

716
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: to make a deal, and there was one.

717
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 4: Hundred percent deal to be made. You don't think if

718
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 4: he offered them.

719
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: Ukraine aid that a significant number of them wouldn't have

720
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: come over and held their nose or whatever and voted

721
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: McCarthy back. Absolutely not so yeah, they absolutely would have

722
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: taken that deal. So it's not clear to me that

723
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: he really wanted to be rescued, because, as I laid

724
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: down before, he was in an impossible bind. There were

725
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: really no decent moves back on the chessboard. So anyway,

726
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: I find it hilarious that out of this whole thing,

727
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: which is all total intra Republican party stuff, that there

728
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: are a bunch of people on the right and in

729
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: the mainstream press who've decided that the real culprits here

730
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: are the Democrats. Here's Fox and Friends taking exactly this

731
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: line of argument, take aalism.

732
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 10: So the Democrats, under the leadership of Hakim Jefferies, wrestled

733
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,959
Speaker 10: with whether or not to support and save the speakership

734
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 10: of Keim McCarthy. Ultimately they decided not to, and I

735
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 10: read somewhere that apparently in the morning, as you can

736
00:32:53,920 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 10: see right there, every one of the Democrats voted against McCarthy.

737
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 3: That's what you get for trusting.

738
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 10: They tell you one thing and then they pulled back

739
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 10: and do something else.

740
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 11: Instead of winning over your caucus, instead of getting the

741
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 11: twelve Appropriations bill, instead of getting term limbs. What you

742
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 11: promise you trusted the Democrats to save your till you

743
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 11: trusted the Democrats to save you with the CR bill.

744
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 11: I mean, it's no wonder why he's not speaker.

745
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 3: And very much in this same we agree with Lawrence

746
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 3: there at the end.

747
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, but again, there was nothing really that

748
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 1: McCarthy could do at this point, because he put this

749
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: insane appropriations bill on the floor that, by the way,

750
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: a bunch of modern Republicans ended up voting for, like,

751
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: you know, forty percent cuts to Social Security Office or whatever,

752
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: which still ends up failing because it wasn't parn So

753
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: it just doesn't seem to me like there was really

754
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: any move left for him to make. And in the

755
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: same line of argumentation, Matt Lewis over at the Daily

756
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: Base put this output this up on the screen. You

757
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: can't blame Democrats for the blow that right wing bomb

758
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: throwers landed on Kevin McCarthy, But what you can say

759
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: they failed to do the right thing on behalf of

760
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: the American people. And I just think this completely ignores

761
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: the fact that number one, this is all intro Republican

762
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 1: party stuff. And number two, whether it's McCarthy, whether it's Scalise,

763
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: whether it's Jim Jordan, whether it's anyone except for Donald Trump. Honestly,

764
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: the dynamics are going to be the same. Kevin McCarthy

765
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 1: was not going to be able to bring a Ukraine

766
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: Aid vote.

767
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 4: To the floor. That ship had sailed.

768
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: So I don't know what is the like the loss

769
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: that we're suffering here. I don't know what the grand

770
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: stakes are that you know, we failed the American people

771
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: on and Nancy Pelosi failed the American people on.

772
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 4: It just all seems incredibly silly to me.

773
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 3: Well, McCarthy in particular, seemed very bitter.

774
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 2: He said that Pelosi had told him privately that they

775
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 2: would back him if there was ever a mothashould vacate.

776
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: I once again returned to why is he having this

777
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 2: conversation with Pelosi and not with Hakim Jeffreys, actual leader

778
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: of the Democratic Party. But hey, you know, apparently that's

779
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: where the deals get me. Then you also, why would

780
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 2: you assume that would be the case. But the reason

781
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: why Crystal that he couldn't bargain with them is what

782
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: kind of speaker does he look like to the GOP

783
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 2: when you had to rely on the Democrats to save you,

784
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 2: if you bargain Ukraine AID like that up on the tape,

785
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 2: you're dead amongst the base.

786
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 3: The other thing is and this is why he made.

787
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: The correct call in my opinion, by offering them nothing,

788
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: and they also made the correct call. Well it depends, Actually,

789
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 2: I'm curious what you think. Do you think they made

790
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 2: the correct call because they effectively at this point have

791
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,919
Speaker 2: guaranteed that Ukraine Ate is ten times harder to get past.

792
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 4: Again, I still don't think it wasn't.

793
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: Yes, I think they made the right call because they

794
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: get to enjoy watching the chaos and Republicans rip each

795
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: other to shreds.

796
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 4: And you know, I mean, Matt.

797
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: Gates is getting accused of all kinds of wild things

798
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 1: on cable news. I mean, it's a total shit show

799
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: over there. So of course they love that Ukraine Aid

800
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: was not happening. I think that's just so clear at

801
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: this point, right, there was no Matt Kate's Austin McCarthy

802
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: over the rumor that there was perhaps in the future

803
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: some secret feel over Ukraine. Yes, mcarthy was not going

804
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: to be able to bring this to the floor, So yeah,

805
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: there was nothing. They're not losing anything in this deal. Effectively,

806
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 1: as far as I can.

807
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 3: Tell, Yeah, yeah, you're probably right.

808
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 2: I do think that the effectively guarantee a shut down

809
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: in November. I could be wrong. We could have a

810
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: similar last minute thing. But you think Jim Jordan's not

811
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 2: willing to shut down the government that I literally would

812
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 2: be willing to crash the entire debt ceiling. He doesn't

813
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 2: care if he wins. Scalise too. Scalise is much more

814
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: of a actual conservative on those issues than McCarthy really,

815
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 2: and MacCarthy didn't really believe in anything that was like

816
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 2: d honestly to his benefit because he was.

817
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 3: Just like, look, I don't care. What does the caucus want.

818
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 3: They're like, okay, we'll go with that.

819
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 2: McConnell was, frankly, a much more ideological actor than Kevin

820
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 2: McCarthy ever was. Kevin McCarthy cared about his majority, He

821
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: cared about his name, He cared about that little thing

822
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,919
Speaker 2: that says speaker McCarthy above his door. He cared about

823
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,439
Speaker 2: the portrait, and he also cared about raising a ton

824
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,760
Speaker 2: of money. These other guys are a lot more ideological.

825
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 2: So I think you're probably right in terms of shutdown,

826
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 2: in terms of Ukraine, especially on an effective an effective measure.

827
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 2: And you know, honestly, if they are Republicans and the

828
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: Republicans were going to quote unquote say Pelosi or even Jeffries, I.

829
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 3: Would tell them the same thing.

830
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: I'd be like, no, screw them, let them, you know,

831
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: let them flail and twist in the wind. Yeah, that's politically,

832
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 2: it's a good thing. That's what you want the country

833
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 2: to be focused on at the very least. So yeah,

834
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: you know, from that perspective, and even also what you

835
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: think the Dems are going to let you get something,

836
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 2: you know through the No, it's not gonna happen if

837
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: you're especially if we're talking vice versa in terms of

838
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,919
Speaker 2: Republican priorities like border security or something, It's like, yeah,

839
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: if they control the House, they're totally going to trade

840
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 2: that for you.

841
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 3: They never would.

842
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 1: I mean, imagine an alternate universe where the Progressives actually

843
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: had some balls and actually challenged Pelosi and you know,

844
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: had some real demands that they were going to make

845
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: and whatever, you think the Republicans would bail Nancy Pelosi, like,

846
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: it's a preposterous idea good point. So I don't know

847
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: why anyone would think that, you know, and it's something.

848
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: A lot of this is personal too. I mean McCarthy

849
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: right after this he avoids the shutdown and you know,

850
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: effectively does a deal with Democrats to just continue with

851
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 1: the spending level as they are and to say, Okay,

852
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: we're not doing Ukraine Aid for now. He goes on

853
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: the Sunday shows and blames the Democrats for the situation,

854
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: like you think that engenders a lot of good will

855
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: where they feel any compunction to save your ass when

856
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: it's on the line.

857
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 4: Absolutely not.

858
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think it's I think it's sort of preposterous,

859
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: this idea that you know, it's really the Democrats fault

860
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 1: that they should have saved him. And then it really

861
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: makes that much of a difference in terms of how

862
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: the future scenarios in terms of Ukraine Aid, in terms

863
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: of government shut down are going to play out, because

864
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: it's really I think one thing that's very clear, the

865
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: Speaker is not in control of this caucus, So whoever

866
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 1: it is, they're going to be subject to the same

867
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: whims and pressures. There's one more piece of this that

868
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 1: I think is amazing and hilarious, which is the problem

869
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 1: Solvers Caucus, which are some of the worst annoying is

870
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 1: most annoying corporate shills bipartisan in Congress, who are mostly

871
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 1: solving problems for rich people.

872
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 4: They're apparently in chaos over.

873
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: The fact that Democrats did not rescue Kevin McCarthy. Put

874
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. This is per axios House

875
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: Bipartisan Caucus risk collapse after McCarthy ouster. Republicans and the

876
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: Problem Solvers Caucus are Wayne Quinn the bipartisan group after

877
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 1: Democrats opted against helping former Speaker Kevin McCarthy keep his

878
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 1: leadership position on Tuesday, why it matters to you he

879
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: members in the group are furious. The Republicans say he

880
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 1: was punished for doing the right thing after advancing a

881
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: stop gapp funding bill on a bipartisan basis. So we

882
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: could also have the beneficial outcome of the annoying, terrible

883
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 1: problem Solver's caucus falling apart, so that would be positive

884
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: as well.

885
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 3: There's always a silver lining. There's always a silver lining.

886
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 6: Quess.

887
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: All right, let's turn to some truly bad news here,

888
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 1: not the mixed bag that the House situation has gone,

889
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 1: and put this up on the report. We just had

890
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 1: a new jobs report from ADP and by the way,

891
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: We're expecting another different jobs report on Friday, so we'll

892
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: see how that one comes out. Private payrolls rose by

893
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 1: only eighty nine thousand in September. That was way below

894
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 1: what economists were expecting to see in this report. They

895
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: were thinking that we'd add more like one hundred and

896
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 1: sixty thousand jobs. So, I mean, we're almost half of

897
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: what the expectation here was. Let me read you a

898
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: little bit of the details here. They see the report

899
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: provides some sign that historically tight labor market could be

900
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: loosening and giving the federal reserves some incentive to stop

901
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: raising indust rates.

902
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 4: Well, that part would be good.

903
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: They also said, though, that not only has the job

904
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 1: market slowed, according again to this report, annual wage growth

905
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: has also slowed. This is the twelfth consecutive monthly decline

906
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 1: in terms of wages. So not only are you adding

907
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: fewer jobs, but the jobs that we do have are

908
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: seeing very low wage increases. And we continue to struggle,

909
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 1: of course, with inflation, which means many workers are taking

910
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: a pay cut every month month to month. Now, they

911
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 1: go on to say, this ADP report can be significantly

912
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: different from the government's official count. That's the one that

913
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 1: comes out on Friday, So we'll see how that one goes.

914
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: But you know, this is a very troubling warning sign

915
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 1: of where the economy is at a time when you know,

916
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 1: we've been tracking a number of storm clouds on the horizon,

917
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 1: including the commercial real estate market. I think is the

918
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 1: most flashing red light that has the potential to ripple

919
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: throughout our entire economy.

920
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, the mortgage demand is the one that really troubles me.

921
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 2: The CNBC, we can put this up there on the screen.

922
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,959
Speaker 2: They've dropped to the lowest level since nineteen ninety six,

923
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: and interest rates heading towards eight percent. Obviously that's a

924
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,479
Speaker 2: disaster of eight percent interest rate, but the load level

925
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: demand since ninety six that I mean, you may think

926
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 2: it's good. We need housing prices to come down. We'll

927
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: talk about that in a little bit, but I just

928
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: think Ristle that the squeeze on the rental market right

929
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 2: now is going to be something that none of us.

930
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: I mean literally, I think I was four years old

931
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety six. We have not seen that level

932
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: of squeeze on our current housing supply since then. When

933
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 2: mortgage rates are going to be this high and people

934
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 2: aren't pulling out. Well, then they're either not moving and

935
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 2: they're locked up to where they are, which dramatically reduces

936
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 2: inventory the existing rental inventory. Unfortunately, the rental you know

937
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 2: boom for that is just incredibly contributing to inflation. So

938
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: I've seen some reports that rent is beginning to stabilize

939
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: in places like New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, the

940
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: highest demand rent areas in the country, but critically that's

941
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: like twenty something percent above what the baseline was in

942
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. There are some new rental inventories that are

943
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: coming online. The other issue with these very very high

944
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: interest rates, a lot of people aren't building anything right now.

945
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 2: In fact, I saw a report that when you're browsing Zillo,

946
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 2: the number of projects which are half completed has never

947
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 2: been higher in terms of OH share, And it makes

948
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 2: sense because people are like, look, I cannot sell.

949
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 3: This at what would be a profit. I need to

950
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 3: just get the hell out of this now.

951
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 2: If you're a private sale seller and you have a

952
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: brother in law or whatever as.

953
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 3: A contractor, now is the time to buy.

954
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 2: It's a good you can clean up right now, and

955
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 2: especially because in a couple of years it's not like

956
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: our housing shortage is going away. I am curious for

957
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 2: your take on this. From the Wall Street Journal, where

958
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 2: Wall Street is betting on American home value, let's go

959
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 2: and put this up there. They think America's home values

960
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 2: are overvalued. Quote as prices paid for the average single

961
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: family property have still hit record highs, big investors are

962
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: taking a pass the single family home right now in

963
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 2: terms of the overall US residential property value index is

964
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: at the highest level that it's ever been. It actually

965
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 2: dipped slightly in February of twenty twenty three, came right

966
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 2: back to baseline and even above of June of twenty

967
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 2: twenty two from where things were. And I don't really

968
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 2: agree with Wall Street actually on this one. Maybe I

969
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: could be totally wrong. I wonder what you think, But

970
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 2: to me, it's just look structural. We have way too

971
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: little housing supply and we'd have a ton of demand.

972
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 2: More and more people are quote unquote coming online every year.

973
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 2: The people get older, they get to the place where

974
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 2: they want a house. The pandemic massively changed the actual

975
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 2: living preferences for the vast majority of Americans. They want

976
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 2: more space. When we want more space, that cost money

977
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: and then more space, especially with the inventory that we

978
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,280
Speaker 2: have right now, which is large, you know, is big,

979
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 2: Like I think the average American wants like a twenty

980
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 2: two hundred square foot house or something like that. Well,

981
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 2: you know those are expensive, so and they don't exist

982
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: very much, and we're building less of it. So yeah,

983
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 2: you know, we could talk housing prices six months and

984
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 2: all that. You shouldn't even be betting on that in

985
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: the first place unless you're literally like a hedge funder.

986
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 3: But I don't know.

987
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: It just seems like prices have nowhere to go but

988
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 2: up when the supply is down and the demand is

989
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: only continue to be high and high in the future.

990
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,879
Speaker 2: Even if you're a residential landlord or something, you could

991
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: still get probably a pretty good rent from where you

992
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 2: could have not that long ago.

993
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I really don't know, but it does.

994
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 1: There is a logic to the prices, which is just

995
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: what you said. There's no supply, you know, there is.

996
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 1: We have dramatically underbuilt, especially at the sort of like.

997
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 4: Starter home level of house now.

998
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 1: With mortgage rates inching up to almost eight percent on

999
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 1: average now, people who are in a home they don't

1000
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: want to sell, so then you don't have that churn

1001
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 1: adding to the supply on the market. So yeah, if

1002
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 1: you don't have sufficient supply, just thinking of like the

1003
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 1: basic laws of supply and demand, the prices make some

1004
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: sense to me, you know, if the report is accurate.

1005
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: There's it's kind of a double edged sword because on

1006
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 1: the one hand, you're like, Okay, good private equities like

1007
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,760
Speaker 1: not like buying up whole neighborhoods like they were. They're

1008
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 1: taking a step back. That's probably a good thing. They're not,

1009
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: you know, buying up the American dream as they were

1010
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: aggressively doing before. On the other hand, if you're like,

1011
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 1: you know, paying too much for a house to get

1012
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 1: ripped off, that's a bad side of things. So I

1013
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 1: don't know, I'm not sure whether it's accurate or not,

1014
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: but it's interesting to see the way that Wall Street

1015
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 1: is looking at all of this in terms of the

1016
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: overall economic numbers. I think there's just a lot to

1017
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: be very nervous about because not only do you have

1018
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 1: a housing market that is wildly unaffordable and basically it's

1019
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,439
Speaker 1: sort of frozen right, Mortgage demand way down. People can't

1020
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 1: buy homes, people can't sell homes. Everyone's just sort of

1021
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: stuck in place, right, So housing market that is totally stuck.

1022
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: You've got commercial real estate market which is like actively

1023
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: in a free fall and with a huge debt reckoning

1024
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 1: coming imminently over the next one.

1025
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 4: To two years.

1026
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: You have student loan debt payments which are restarting, just

1027
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 1: restarted this month, and a lot of question marks about

1028
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: what that's going to do to consumer spending. And you

1029
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: continue to have, you know a lot of worries overseas.

1030
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 1: You know, we've been covering what's going on in China.

1031
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 1: We're not insulated from if there are huge shocks to

1032
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: a giant economy like that, and there's massive fallout like

1033
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: that's going to hit us as well. So there's a

1034
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: lot to be very wary of. And when you add

1035
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: on top of that the latest really bad jobs report,

1036
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: because the one thing that you could say about this

1037
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: economy was Okay, well, we just might be low and

1038
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 1: inflation might be high, and there might be these other problems,

1039
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: but at least there's a lot of jobs, right, And

1040
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: that height labor market has also really contributed to the

1041
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: labor energy that we've seen in all these strikes and

1042
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 1: all these new workers forming unions, which is incredibly positive,

1043
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: incredibly hopeful. The tight labor market has been a key

1044
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: part of that story. So that part is going away

1045
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: and easing up. It's just it's a very troubling picture

1046
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 1: overall that we should be keeping our eyes up.

1047
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, because that was always the Biden defense.

1048
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 2: They're agreeable look at the unemployment rate, and it didn't

1049
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 2: matter how much we talked about inflation, underemployment, wage for growth,

1050
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 2: you know, all the structural factors which make it. So

1051
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, it's great to be employed, I guess,

1052
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: but it's better than being unemployed. But you know what's

1053
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: worse is what's worse is high unemployment, which is frankly

1054
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: what they want. They want the federal reserve, and very

1055
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 2: high inflation, which is caused structurally by a whole bunch

1056
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 2: of supply issues. The price of gas shelter remained the

1057
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 2: two driving sources behind all of inflation. Those basically have

1058
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 2: nothing to do with government spending. They have a lot

1059
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 2: more to do with real policy implications. And so when

1060
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 2: you look at that, you know, it's a very very

1061
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 2: tough situation for the average American right now. The only

1062
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 2: thing worse is on unemployment which appears to now be

1063
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: going up. So I actually thought we talked a lot

1064
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 2: about this, but Biden people were betting on a quote

1065
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 2: unquote economic recovery coming in twenty twenty four.

1066
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 3: Looking at this, I actually probably take the other side

1067
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 3: of the bet.

1068
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not looking good. It's definitely not looking good.

1069
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: Let's gohead and move on to some interesting new numbers

1070
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: from Gallup which ties into how Americans are feeling about

1071
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: I mean this ties into the whole show, right, how

1072
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,319
Speaker 1: Americans are feeling about a totally dysfunctional political system and

1073
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 1: about the inability.

1074
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 4: To deliver for regular people. Put this up on the screen.

1075
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 1: You now have support for the third parties up to

1076
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: sixty three percent. Sixty three percent of US adults currently

1077
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 1: agree with the statement that the Republican Democratic parties do

1078
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: such a poor job of representing the American people that

1079
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 1: a third major party is needed. That represents a seven

1080
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: percentage point increase from just a year ago, and it

1081
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: is a high since gal first asked the question back

1082
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: in two thousand and three, and Sager part of what

1083
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: was really interesting and surprising to me was that the

1084
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: largest numbers of support for a third party are with independence.

1085
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:15,840
Speaker 1: That part makes sense. But you now have a majority

1086
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 1: of Republicans fifty eight percent who endorse a third US

1087
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: political party. That's up significantly. It was just forty five

1088
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 1: percent a year ago. The only other time more Republicans

1089
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,399
Speaker 1: than now express support for a third party was in

1090
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: a late January earlier early February twenty twenty one poll

1091
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 1: conducted after the January sixth riots, the second impeachment Donald Trump,

1092
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 1: and the presidential inauguration of Joe Biden. There has also

1093
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 1: been an uptick in support for third party among Democrats

1094
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 1: this year, from forty to forty six percent. There's still

1095
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: less than major back the idea. So a lot of

1096
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: the movement in this poll towards support for a third

1097
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: party is actually on the Republican side of the ledger.

1098
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 3: I think that's fantastic, you know.

1099
00:49:56,440 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 2: I The more that the individual parties become legitimate in

1100
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 2: the eyes of the public, I think that's fantastic. In

1101
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: terms of the Republican side, we can explain it a

1102
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 2: couple of different ways. A lot of it is that

1103
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 2: Trump's at dissatisfaction. The majority of Republicans do support Trump,

1104
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 2: of course, but many people are Republicans don't. And that's

1105
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 2: actually very evidence in the data. The last time that

1106
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 2: third party support was this high in the Gallup tracker

1107
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: was January of twenty twenty one. Anyone want to remember

1108
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 2: what happened around then, It was January sixth, So a

1109
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 2: lot of people were upset with the direction of the party,

1110
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: and a lot of Republican voters in particular.

1111
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: Here's the other thing and why you can reconcile this.

1112
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 2: You could be a Trump Republican and not actually be

1113
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 2: a Republican at all. You're more just a Trump You're

1114
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 2: a Trumpelican, I guess or something. He's just support Trump.

1115
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 2: You don't support the overall party apparatus. You don't believe

1116
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,320
Speaker 2: in the RNC, you don't care about like the Reagan

1117
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 2: rule about insulting it.

1118
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: You're like, no, I love Trump.

1119
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:54,399
Speaker 2: Trump is my politics, not the Republican Party, not vig

1120
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 2: Ramaswami or Mike Pencer any of these other people.

1121
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 3: I got nothing common with those people.

1122
00:50:57,880 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 2: So of course they would be actually supportive of a

1123
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 2: third party because if Trump were to run as a

1124
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 2: third party, I think he would win a lot of

1125
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 2: those voters. So the more that Trump turned the Republican

1126
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 2: Party into a cult of personality, but by you know,

1127
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 2: an extension, he actually dramatically reduced the overall credibility of

1128
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,959
Speaker 2: said party. Now I'm fascinated by the Democratic number because

1129
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 2: forty six percent for a bunch of people who are

1130
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: hardcore institutionalists and love the media and all that stuff,

1131
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 2: that's very high. I don't know where that comes from.

1132
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 2: I think it could be by an age I could,

1133
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 2: it could. There's a lot of things. I wonder what

1134
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: you think, how how it can be nearly a near majority.

1135
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: I have to think that the numbers would be very

1136
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 1: clearly skewed by age demographic. So I think, you know,

1137
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:43,879
Speaker 1: the younger part of the Democratic coalition is extremely dissatisfied

1138
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 1: with this party. Feels like their priorities and their like

1139
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: ideological inclinations are completely sneered at. You know, they're they

1140
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 1: feel dismissed by this party. They feel like this party

1141
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 1: does not care about what they want, does is not

1142
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,879
Speaker 1: responsive to them, takes them completely for granted, and they

1143
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 1: just don't have that same level of just you know,

1144
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: Democratic party loyalty that perhaps previous generations did and still do.

1145
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: So that's my guess is young voters and that's where

1146
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: we see the largest amount of dissatisfaction within the Democratic

1147
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: Coalition with Joe Biden himself. So that's my expectation of

1148
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 1: what is going on there. And I mean the overall

1149
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 1: numbers just reflect the fact that people are unhappy. They

1150
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 1: feel like the country is in decline and decay. They

1151
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 1: feel like there's a rot at the core. They feel like,

1152
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: you know, they have no hope for the future. They

1153
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 1: feel like they're never going to be able to buy

1154
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: a house. They feel like they're not going to be

1155
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: able to send their kids to college. They feel like

1156
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 1: they're never going to be able to pay off their college.

1157
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 4: Student loan debt.

1158
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 1: They feel like none of these neither of these parties

1159
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: is really delivering for them on these you know, material

1160
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: realities that are making their lives very stressful, very difficult

1161
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: for young people. Also, the climate crisis looms really large,

1162
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 1: and they see, you know, they see a little bit

1163
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 1: of action, but then they see like two steps backward

1164
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,839
Speaker 1: with a bunch of DOI leases, etc. From the Biden administration.

1165
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: So that level of dissatisfaction as reflected in third party

1166
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: support makes a lot of sense to me. Now, I

1167
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 1: think it's always important with these third party polls to

1168
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,319
Speaker 1: put in a note of caution, which is that our

1169
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 1: electoral system, the way it's set up, is set up

1170
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 1: to crush third parties and make them not viable. So

1171
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 1: the mere fact that you have a large number of

1172
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 1: people who are like, yeah, there should be some other

1173
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: choices doesn't mean those people are going to vote for

1174
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 1: the other choices. Yes, and you know the fact that

1175
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 1: you have this large group saying yeah, we want other choices,

1176
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 1: they also don't mean the same things by that in

1177
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:39,279
Speaker 1: terms of what they would want to see with.

1178
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 4: Those other choices.

1179
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 1: So we've had high numbers like this before and it

1180
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 1: hasn't translated into a large third party vote, even when

1181
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 1: you've had some choices on the ballot that are third

1182
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:51,760
Speaker 1: party candidates.

1183
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 2: Absolutely, there's also a fascinating RFK Junior kind of tie

1184
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: into this if he does end up running as an independent,

1185
00:53:58,040 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: which we expect him to do.

1186
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.

1187
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 2: Nate Silver ran the numbers over at the Free Press,

1188
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 2: which is run by Barry Weiss, and he argues again

1189
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 2: pretty persuasively what we said about how he probably doesn't

1190
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 2: hurt Biden and most respects will almost certainly help. Oh, sorry,

1191
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 2: will almost certainly hurt Trump. Now, I also understand that

1192
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 2: it is annoying to people support third party candidates all

1193
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 2: about hurt the idea that they should be viewed on

1194
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: their face. I don't even necessarily disagree with you, but again, Crystal,

1195
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:31,800
Speaker 2: you and I are trapped in what the reality of

1196
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: the American political system.

1197
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's a duopoly.

1198
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 2: I don't wish it wasn't necessarily that way, but you know,

1199
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 2: when we're talking about places where you can only get

1200
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 2: anywhere between one to five percent of the ballot historically,

1201
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 2: you know generally you are going to be a quote

1202
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 2: unquote spoiler. I don't think of it that way, but

1203
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 2: that's how most people process it. What he writes in

1204
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 2: here is basically that because of the overall amount of

1205
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 2: favorability that RFK Junior does have with a lot of

1206
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: Republican voters and or independents who are sick of the

1207
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 2: Democrats Party for reasons that don't necessarily align with the

1208
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 2: mainstream Democratic Party, then those people would predominantly gravitate towards

1209
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 2: either Trump or trump ish like candidate on those issue sets,

1210
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 2: things like Ukraine, the vaccine, and more so with those

1211
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 2: and those voters who may not identify as Republicans but

1212
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:23,760
Speaker 2: who predominantly have sympathies with some parts of Republican voters,

1213
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,160
Speaker 2: who may disagree on several other issues, but that's not

1214
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:29,720
Speaker 2: the priority. It's not what's drawing them away from the party. Largely,

1215
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 2: it is going to hurt in a duopoly system. So

1216
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 2: I think that when you look at that and you

1217
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 2: also see the Republican figure be so high, to be

1218
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 2: such an app at an attitude and an appetite if

1219
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: you will, for something different RFK Junior, especially with the

1220
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 2: Kennedy last name, with a specific issue set that he

1221
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 2: is most passionate about, I would view that very much

1222
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 2: as an avenue for him to be able to gain

1223
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 2: a lot of Republican votes. I'm not arguing you shouldn't run,

1224
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 2: by the way, but actually, funnily enough, I've started to

1225
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: see big maga Twitter accounts shift their focus. I actually

1226
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,759
Speaker 2: saw one, this guy d C Dreno. If anybody knows

1227
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 2: there's over a million followers on this yeah, and he

1228
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 2: was like, hey, I'm I'm guilty of this. He's like

1229
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 2: I propped up. He is actually very open. He was

1230
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 2: like I elevated RFK Junior because he was a cudgel

1231
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 2: against Democrats. He's like, now I'm going to start highlighting

1232
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 2: all the bad things about him because I think he's

1233
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:27,280
Speaker 2: gonna hurt Trump.

1234
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:30,279
Speaker 3: And I was like, wow, that's a very by the way,

1235
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:31,319
Speaker 3: I love that.

1236
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 1: I love as my propagation before.

1237
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 3: Because I hate the Democrats and I want them to lose.

1238
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 2: Now and it goes independent, I actually think he's gonna

1239
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 2: hurt us, so now I'm gonna start attacking him, and

1240
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 2: I was like, okay, I thank you for telling us.

1241
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 3: I hope all people aren't that straight anyway.

1242
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 2: My point is is that there is broad recognition amongst,

1243
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 2: as I said, every MAGA influencer of any consequence that

1244
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:00,400
Speaker 2: I've been able to see people who have legit massive

1245
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 2: followings amongst the overall GOP based and I think the

1246
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 2: fact that they overwhelmingly believe that RFK Junior would hurt

1247
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 2: Trump if it came down to it does tell you

1248
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 2: a lot about what they see the problem.

1249
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 3: As you know, and Trump himself has remained silent.

1250
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 2: This amount of data on third parties is also just

1251
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 2: another indication in that direction.

1252
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 1: You know, who I could see voting for RFK is

1253
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 1: people who are frustrated with Trump because they think he

1254
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: was like too pro vac Yeah, absolutely, Anthony Fauci whatever, Yeah, like.

1255
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 3: A Robert Santis super standards.

1256
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 1: That's like kind of the you know, just Trump is

1257
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 1: going to be the nominee. And so that seems to

1258
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 1: me like the most clear cut avenue of people who

1259
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 1: were like that's their issue and they're like die hard

1260
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: about it and really super anti vaccine, and there is

1261
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 1: a constituency for that, and most of those people, if

1262
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: it wasn't for RFK being there, would probably either not

1263
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 1: vote or they would vote for Donald Trump. They certainly

1264
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 1: wouldn't vote for Joe Biden. That seems to me like

1265
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: probably where he gets the bulk of his support from.

1266
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: But you know, I do think it's complicated.

1267
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 4: Nate.

1268
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 1: On the one hand, as you're pointing out, he says, guns, abortion,

1269
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: vaccines in Ukraine are quite a quartet of issues to

1270
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 1: defect in the Democratic Party on, particularly from the suburban,

1271
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:19,120
Speaker 1: college educated base that they rely on increasingly. But he

1272
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: does make the other side like he's not really definitive

1273
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 1: about it. He's like, I could see it going other

1274
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: either way. I think probably he takes more from Trump

1275
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 1: than Biden, but he says the most persuasive argument to

1276
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 1: him is that Trump is a higher floor but lower

1277
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 1: ceiling on his support than Biden does. In other words,

1278
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: the Trump support is much more locked in. His supporters

1279
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:41,520
Speaker 1: are much more committed, So in that case, Trump's diehards

1280
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 1: might stick with him even if they also like Kennedy,

1281
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 1: but people who are kind of like eh on Biden

1282
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 1: may may flirt with or consider the Kennedy candidacy. The

1283
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: other thing that I threw in the mix that Nate

1284
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 1: doesn't mention here, that I do think is a really important.

1285
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 4: Factor is remember, a lot of people don't pay that

1286
00:58:57,960 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 4: close attention.

1287
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:01,480
Speaker 1: They aren't aware of RFK, all of rfk's positions and

1288
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 1: exactly where they are Visa v. Him, et cetera. He's

1289
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 1: got a Kennedy last name, and there is a lot

1290
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 1: of just like historical affection for that name the Democratic Party,

1291
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: I think is a big part of why he has

1292
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 1: his support he has in a Democratic primary in spite

1293
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 1: of the fact that he still has these very low

1294
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: approval ratings within the Democratic Party.

1295
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 4: So it continues to not.

1296
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 1: Be totally clear cut to me, I do think, and

1297
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. Apparently there's a Kennedy

1298
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 1: campaign insider who told media that RFK running independent is

1299
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 1: going to f Trump, so he was pretty clear about it.

1300
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 1: It's also kind of revealing the way this Kennedy campaign

1301
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 1: insider talked about RFK and about his assessment.

1302
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 4: Here he says, this is going to f Trump.

1303
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 1: Bobby's values are much more in line with patriots, meaning

1304
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: I guess Republicans. He's against big pharma, he's pro bitcoin

1305
00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: decentralized so the government can't control it. So anyway, for

1306
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 1: what it's worth, RFK and his campaign seem to think

1307
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 1: this is gonna be more of a problem for Trump.

1308
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 1: Very likely, it doesn't actually make that much of a

1309
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 1: difference either way. It's possible because especially if you have

1310
01:00:05,480 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 1: votes kind of split, some of the people might have

1311
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 1: gone to Biden, some of the people might have gone

1312
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: to Trump. Who knows, and historically Americans just don't vote

1313
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 1: in that larger numbers for third party candidates, especially if

1314
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 1: you're not going to have a bunch of Baggett influencers,

1315
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 1: you're going after him who aren't giving him the platform

1316
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 1: and like the cover and the adulation that they were

1317
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 1: giving him when he was running against Biden that could

1318
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 1: also change his favorability of rating and the appetite form

1319
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 1: within more Republican aligned to independence.

1320
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 4: So I don't know, We'll see.

1321
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 3: We will certainly see.

1322
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the SPF trial, which remains ongoing

1323
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 2: but honestly a more meta crisis of biography. Michael Lewis,

1324
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 2: who I got to admit it was one of my

1325
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 2: favorite authors, but he really is stoop into a very

1326
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 2: new low here with effectively a defense of Sam Bankman Freed,

1327
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:55,439
Speaker 2: not only in his book but in recent interviews. Take

1328
01:00:55,440 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 2: a listen to how he defended him in a recent

1329
01:00:57,320 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 2: interview with Chris Hayes on MSNBC.

1330
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 10: I hadn't come down in the Bernie made Off category

1331
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 10: right when I read the indictment.

1332
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 2: That's not really the line this book takes, or your

1333
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: impression of.

1334
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 12: Well, so just for starters, I mean this like, I

1335
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 12: think this is an important distinction. Everbody shouts at me

1336
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 12: when I make it. But Bernie made Off. It was

1337
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 12: a Ponzi scheme, and it's like a definition of a

1338
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 12: Ponzi scheme. There's no real business there. So Sam Bankman

1339
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 12: Freed had two businesses. He had this hedge fund, he

1340
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 12: called all of me to research. But he had this

1341
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 12: crypto exchange, and the exchange what was a goal mine.

1342
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 12: It generated a billion dollars in revenues in twenty twenty one,

1343
01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 12: like fourhundred million dollars in profits.

1344
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 4: It was real.

1345
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 12: Without without the hedge fund there to screw it up,

1346
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 12: it'd still be there.

1347
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 13: You know.

1348
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 12: It was a casino. It was just like they took

1349
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 12: the little slices of every transaction in crypto.

1350
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,520
Speaker 4: So and the other one is still around, right, coinbase whatever.

1351
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 12: Yeah, well there are a bunch of them are still around.

1352
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 5: So and people.

1353
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 12: Most of the most money in crypto has been made

1354
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 12: by the people who bought bitcoin when it was zero

1355
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 12: or people who created these exchanges. So there was this

1356
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 12: real thing, and the alleged crime kind of makes no sense.

1357
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:07,520
Speaker 12: He blew up forty billion dollar forty billion dollar business

1358
01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 12: for this kind of pitch fund on the side that

1359
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:12,440
Speaker 12: really was it was his legacy business. Is how he

1360
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:13,320
Speaker 12: got into crypto in.

1361
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 6: The first place.

1362
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:17,400
Speaker 12: But it didn't they didn't bear a necessary relationship.

1363
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 2: Uh what the alleged crime kind of makes no sense.

1364
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 2: What are you talking about, dude. The thing is is

1365
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 2: that it actually is very analogous to made Off.

1366
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 3: He's totally wrong.

1367
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:29,479
Speaker 2: The old SBF thing actually made me go and read

1368
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 2: the definitive book on made Off, and the parallels are striking.

1369
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 2: You need money coming in the door one way to

1370
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:40,440
Speaker 2: prop up an allegedly good business over here which has

1371
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,720
Speaker 2: fantastic margins and has all this awesome stuff, but is

1372
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 2: basically backstopped by fraud.

1373
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 3: I mean, it's the exact same thing.

1374
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:51,040
Speaker 2: You have money coming in, you use that money for

1375
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 2: a different purpose and to reputationally kind of launder yourself

1376
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 2: and make yourself into a you know, like a vaunted

1377
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 2: One point, made Off was even like a head of it.

1378
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 2: He was like a representative or something to the US,

1379
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 2: not the SEC, but the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, something like that.

1380
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:10,360
Speaker 2: My point is that he basically just moved money around

1381
01:03:10,440 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 2: in order to create like a financial engineering scheme. That's

1382
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 2: exactly what Sam Bankman Freedm is doing. I mean, when

1383
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:16,800
Speaker 2: you have to.

1384
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 1: Get more money in to keep your scheme afloat and

1385
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: pay off the things that you're already obligated, that's like

1386
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:22,920
Speaker 1: the deafin.

1387
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 3: Word I'm talking about.

1388
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:25,320
Speaker 2: And the thing is, this is a lot of problems

1389
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 2: to Mber Michael Lewis's book, Let's put this up there.

1390
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 2: You know. Max Chafkin over at Bloomberg wrote a pretty

1391
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:33,439
Speaker 2: skating review, and he noted multiple times.

1392
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 3: Here where Lewis quote.

1393
01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 2: It is impossible to miss the differences in Lewis's treatment

1394
01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 2: of Sam Bankman Freed, a socially awkward young man afforded

1395
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:42,880
Speaker 2: nest empathy by the author, and Michael Orr, the socially

1396
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 2: awkward young man who Lewis treats his quote nearly mute

1397
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 2: spectator in his two thousand and six book The blind Side.

1398
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:50,280
Speaker 2: The book is ostensibly about Or, but he barely quotes

1399
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 2: Or and offers his awkwardness not as a sign of

1400
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:54,760
Speaker 2: his genius. Lewis does for Bankman Freed as evidence that

1401
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:57,959
Speaker 2: he may be mentally limited, you know, SPF, he says.

1402
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 2: Lewis treats SBF with endless compassion, treats everyone around him

1403
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 2: with zero It seemed nuts. For example, when SBF went

1404
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 2: trying around to pin the entire collapse on his s girlfriend,

1405
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 2: Lewis somehow goes for it. For example, the portrayal of

1406
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:13,560
Speaker 2: Caroline Ellison, the star witness in the trial, comes off

1407
01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 2: as a sayso affair of a guy accused of art

1408
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 2: scale fraud feels especially unfair. Lewis seems to consider bankmin

1409
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 2: Freed a totally reliable narrator while approaching Ellison as an

1410
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 2: emotionally unstable temptress. In doing so, he falls back on

1411
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 2: a tired and sexist trope while arguing as defenders of

1412
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 2: Pharaohos initially did that if it weren't for the haters,

1413
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 2: everything would have been fine.

1414
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 3: You know.

1415
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 2: He attacks Caroline Ellison in the book, and then he

1416
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 2: also quote I was gobsmacked by the way that Lewis

1417
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 2: was left out damning things about Sam, who he presents

1418
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 2: as a misunderstood genius. I couldn't help but think about

1419
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 2: another socially awkward Michael Lewis character who is treated with

1420
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 2: much less compassion, and again talking about devastating.

1421
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 3: I think it is a devastating review.

1422
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 2: I haven't fully read the book, but you know, multiple

1423
01:04:56,480 --> 01:04:58,480
Speaker 2: people I trust, coffee Zilla, who will be having on

1424
01:04:58,520 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: the show sometime next week. He's doing a review of

1425
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:02,720
Speaker 2: the book, A scathing review of the book. A friend

1426
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 2: of mine shre Round Krishnan. He runs the Good Time Show.

1427
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 2: He's a pro crypto. Guy's a pro crypto, A sixteen's

1428
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 2: the Investor, and he was like, basically, this book reads

1429
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 2: as if you got conned by con men. So I mean,

1430
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,480
Speaker 2: I'm talking about people who were pro crypto in the space.

1431
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:18,440
Speaker 2: They always hated SBF because he tarnished the reputation a

1432
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 2: lot around the business and all that, and they're reading

1433
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 2: this book and just be like, I'm gobsmacked by this.

1434
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 2: So from every angle that I've been able to see,

1435
01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:31,680
Speaker 2: this appears to really just be like stenography in terms.

1436
01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:33,560
Speaker 3: Of the book, which is frankly disappointing.

1437
01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 2: You know, as a fan of Moneyball's a fan of

1438
01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:37,760
Speaker 2: the Big Short Liars Poke, I thought these were great,

1439
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,760
Speaker 2: great books, But honestly, I'm beginning to doubt now even

1440
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 2: those books now after reading this, because I'm like, dude,

1441
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 2: if this is your editorial standard, like I got to

1442
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 2: start doubting.

1443
01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 3: What I was reading, you know, ten.

1444
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 1: Years ago, I feel exactly the same way. And there

1445
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 1: was a piece in The Guardian put this up on

1446
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:56,640
Speaker 1: the screen that I thought was also very good, The

1447
01:05:56,680 --> 01:05:58,680
Speaker 1: Insider how michae Lewis got a backstage pass with the

1448
01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 1: fall of Sam Bakant Free And what they point out

1449
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:05,440
Speaker 1: here is that in all of these books. What Michael

1450
01:06:05,480 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 1: Lewis does is he takes a character, whoever his chosen

1451
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 1: hero is, and really lionizes them and makes them a hero.

1452
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: So when he started following SBF around before his downfall,

1453
01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 1: he wasn't thinking con man, fraudster, I'm going to expose him,

1454
01:06:21,560 --> 01:06:24,320
Speaker 1: because frankly, that's not really what he does, which is

1455
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: why he's beloved on Wall Street. That should have been

1456
01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:30,040
Speaker 1: a red flag to us number one. But he was thinking,

1457
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 1: this is a genius, this is the boy genius. He

1458
01:06:33,120 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 1: bought into the hype and from the expert that's been published.

1459
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 4: From.

1460
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,480
Speaker 1: His analysis in this Chris Hayes interview and the way

1461
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:44,720
Speaker 1: he's trying to cover for him. He really seems to

1462
01:06:44,880 --> 01:06:50,640
Speaker 1: have believed in this view of the quirky genius billionaire

1463
01:06:50,840 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 1: doesn't care about money and is just doing all these

1464
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,720
Speaker 1: things for altruistic reasons, etc.

1465
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 3: Etc.

1466
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:00,280
Speaker 1: And when the narrative collapsed and all this I don't

1467
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:05,960
Speaker 1: write fraud and a massive theft was revealed, he couldn't adjust,

1468
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:09,760
Speaker 1: He couldn't change the story. He couldn't you see him

1469
01:07:09,800 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 1: through any other lens. He couldn't actually apply a critical

1470
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:16,440
Speaker 1: lens because he already was so far in and had

1471
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:18,920
Speaker 1: bought so much of the hype, you know. He admits

1472
01:07:19,280 --> 01:07:22,520
Speaker 1: in an interview for this Guardian piece that the prosecution

1473
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 1: is going to get maybe some little pieces out of

1474
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 1: this book, but actually that overall it really works for

1475
01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:32,720
Speaker 1: Sam's defense. He says that, so he clearly understands that

1476
01:07:32,840 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 1: this is in some ways like exculpatory to Sam Bankman Freed,

1477
01:07:37,240 --> 01:07:41,240
Speaker 1: and is relatively clear about it. He also says to Lewis,

1478
01:07:41,440 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 1: I'm reading from that piece now whether Bankman Freed is

1479
01:07:43,360 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: innocent or guilty is in a sense moot. What narrative

1480
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:49,320
Speaker 1: purpose would it have served? Lewis asked me to be

1481
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 1: harder on him in the book. What narrative purpose would

1482
01:07:53,280 --> 01:07:56,920
Speaker 1: it have served? I thought this analysis was also really revealing.

1483
01:07:57,240 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 1: While reading the book, I found myself itching for Lewis

1484
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:04,280
Speaker 1: to his amused ethnographer approach. The drama he was witnessing

1485
01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:07,000
Speaker 1: was so outrageous that he seems to have satisfied himself

1486
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 1: with relaying it rather than picking its truth and meaning apart.

1487
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: I wondered if he'd spent so much time within the

1488
01:08:13,080 --> 01:08:16,840
Speaker 1: technocratic echelon of American life that when Benkmin Freed embodied

1489
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:19,639
Speaker 1: some of its worst traits when he thought of people

1490
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 1: as probability distributions, or ran his companies with deliberate opacity,

1491
01:08:24,439 --> 01:08:27,479
Speaker 1: or chased an obscene level of wealth. Lewis could only

1492
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 1: see him as an especially quirky character rather than a

1493
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:34,599
Speaker 1: product of terrible dysfunction. And that comes across in that

1494
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:38,160
Speaker 1: excerpt where he's talking to Anna Wintour on a zoom

1495
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 1: and he's at the same time playing this video game

1496
01:08:41,000 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 1: storybook Brawl that he's apparently obsessed with to the point

1497
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:47,879
Speaker 1: of absolute distraction, not engaging at all in what Wintour

1498
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:50,439
Speaker 1: is saying, promising all sorts of things that he ends

1499
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:53,200
Speaker 1: up completely crashing out on, and rather than being like

1500
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:56,400
Speaker 1: you know, in any normal situation, when you don't make

1501
01:08:56,439 --> 01:08:59,200
Speaker 1: good on your obligations and you're distracted, not paying attention

1502
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:03,200
Speaker 1: to people, terrible person. Yeah, you're immature. You can't stay

1503
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 1: focused on a single subject. You can't, you know, pay

1504
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 1: attention to the person in front of you. You're just

1505
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 1: lying about things that you're gonna do that you actually

1506
01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:12,320
Speaker 1: have no intention of doing. You're not even listening to

1507
01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:15,879
Speaker 1: the things that you're agreeing to, Like you're an immature brat,

1508
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:19,439
Speaker 1: spoiled and not a good person. But that's not the

1509
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:20,799
Speaker 1: way he's portrayed here whatsoever.

1510
01:09:21,080 --> 01:09:24,320
Speaker 3: Certainly not the way he is portrayed. To put it lightly, I.

1511
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 2: Honestly, look, I mean the charitable explanation, as you said,

1512
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:29,600
Speaker 2: is that this is just how he always writes. And

1513
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 2: sometimes it's a hit, like with Billy Baines, like with

1514
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,760
Speaker 2: like with Michael Burry in The Big Short and some

1515
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 2: of the other people who he profiles. But it's a

1516
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 2: massive miss whenever we're talking about I mean, for example,

1517
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,479
Speaker 2: I didn't read The Fifth Risk, but apparently it's very

1518
01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:48,280
Speaker 2: like it's It basically is just a stenography by Chris

1519
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 2: Christy about how everything went wrong during the Trump administration.

1520
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:53,679
Speaker 2: That's an honest view of went wrong. And I think that's,

1521
01:09:53,960 --> 01:09:58,160
Speaker 2: let's be real. That's why think about Fifth Risk pandemics, right,

1522
01:09:58,240 --> 01:10:00,200
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm thinking I thought there was another BOK that

1523
01:10:00,240 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 2: he wrote about the pandemic.

1524
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 3: I forgot exactly what that one was called.

1525
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,200
Speaker 2: This one was about the Trump transit, I believe about

1526
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:07,879
Speaker 2: Chris Christy was in charge and got fired by Jared Kushner,

1527
01:10:08,040 --> 01:10:09,560
Speaker 2: and he just sat down with Chris Christie for like

1528
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:11,200
Speaker 2: ten hours and cranked.

1529
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 3: Out a book.

1530
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:14,160
Speaker 2: They're also look, let's be real here. In terms of

1531
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:17,120
Speaker 2: Lewis's career, there have been some hints. He wrote what

1532
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:20,280
Speaker 2: is probably the most hay geographic profile I've ever read

1533
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:22,679
Speaker 2: of an American president, where he hung out with Barack

1534
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:25,439
Speaker 2: Obama while he played basketball, and he just I mean,

1535
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:29,080
Speaker 2: it's just amazing, Like the guy ployees basketball. He doesn't

1536
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:32,520
Speaker 2: want to lose, so he invites all these veteran employees

1537
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:34,639
Speaker 2: who are actually good and he's good.

1538
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:36,320
Speaker 3: Guys, I played with him.

1539
01:10:36,439 --> 01:10:39,080
Speaker 2: I remember reading this like a decade ago, being yeah, man,

1540
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 2: I'm a fan, but like this is this is crossing

1541
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 2: in the line of like this is like king worship

1542
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 2: but something like that.

1543
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:48,000
Speaker 3: So there have been hints there. Yeah, wow, true.

1544
01:10:48,080 --> 01:10:50,880
Speaker 1: And then when you get to this juncture, you kind

1545
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 1: of kind of look back and you're like, yeah.

1546
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 4: Oh, okay, there's been a lot of things differently.

1547
01:10:55,000 --> 01:10:56,680
Speaker 1: Than I was, because at the time, if you just

1548
01:10:56,720 --> 01:10:58,720
Speaker 1: see that, you can sort of Okay, MoMA's on a

1549
01:10:58,760 --> 01:11:01,599
Speaker 1: lot of people's heads with Starstruck, we'll push that one

1550
01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 1: on the side. Now you're like, oh, you actually never

1551
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 1: critically write really critically about people with wealth and power,

1552
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:09,800
Speaker 1: and you just like fall in love with him.

1553
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:11,080
Speaker 3: He hasn't a time.

1554
01:11:11,120 --> 01:11:13,439
Speaker 2: So he wrote Flashboys is actually one of my favorite

1555
01:11:13,439 --> 01:11:15,320
Speaker 2: books he's ever written about high frequency of trading.

1556
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:17,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it pissed a lot of people off on

1557
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:18,439
Speaker 3: Wall Street. And I love that.

1558
01:11:18,720 --> 01:11:21,360
Speaker 2: Because he pissed off a lot of Ken Ken Griffin,

1559
01:11:21,400 --> 01:11:23,800
Speaker 2: a lot of these guys who made fortunes basically just

1560
01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:26,840
Speaker 2: you know, building servers and investing in like microwave technology

1561
01:11:26,880 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 2: to try and send their trade quicker, as like arbitrage.

1562
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:32,080
Speaker 2: Basically it's at tax on the entire system.

1563
01:11:32,080 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 3: I thought it was a.

1564
01:11:32,520 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 2: Phenomenal book and I actually thought it had a good

1565
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 2: and it did piss off a lot of rich people.

1566
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:39,040
Speaker 2: But I also do remember him. I went to one

1567
01:11:39,040 --> 01:11:40,680
Speaker 2: of his book events. I know, I'm sorry, I was

1568
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 2: young whenever, and I remember him saying, He's like, I've

1569
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 2: never experienced him on a pushback in my life, so

1570
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:48,640
Speaker 2: maybe because he's not experienced to it, he took it

1571
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:50,400
Speaker 2: as a scar and he's like, you know what, I'm

1572
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:52,439
Speaker 2: going to sit here and just write for the billionaire

1573
01:11:52,479 --> 01:11:54,680
Speaker 2: Sam Bankment Freed. And this is one of the most

1574
01:11:54,720 --> 01:11:56,599
Speaker 2: disgraced men in the United States. So I don't even

1575
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:58,920
Speaker 2: know what the incentive is it's crazy.

1576
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,240
Speaker 1: To me too, because, like you, this all came It

1577
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:04,120
Speaker 1: would be one thing if the book was totally written

1578
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:07,360
Speaker 1: and like going to press before everything came out, but

1579
01:12:07,439 --> 01:12:09,840
Speaker 1: you had a chance, like you got to know what

1580
01:12:09,960 --> 01:12:10,720
Speaker 1: the truth was.

1581
01:12:10,880 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 4: I don't know, and you didn't adjust. It's it's wild.

1582
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:15,880
Speaker 1: We're both i think, probably going to read the book

1583
01:12:15,960 --> 01:12:17,320
Speaker 1: just to be able to see it and.

1584
01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:18,800
Speaker 4: Judge it for ourselves, et cetera.

1585
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:22,040
Speaker 1: But especially as this trial is going on and it's

1586
01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:25,040
Speaker 1: so blatant for him to say, oh, look, the alleged

1587
01:12:25,080 --> 01:12:27,720
Speaker 1: crime doesn't make sense. Are you kidding me? Like, do

1588
01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 1: you know nothing about these people? Do you know nothing

1589
01:12:30,200 --> 01:12:33,160
Speaker 1: about how Wall Street works, about the way Crypto has

1590
01:12:33,160 --> 01:12:35,280
Speaker 1: worked and been like total wild West, the amount of

1591
01:12:35,320 --> 01:12:37,719
Speaker 1: rug pulls and all this nonsense that's been going on there.

1592
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:39,400
Speaker 1: And they're like, oh, it just doesn't make sense for

1593
01:12:39,479 --> 01:12:41,280
Speaker 1: him to steal all this money. Of course, it makes sense.

1594
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:43,840
Speaker 1: It makes it's completely logical, it makes all the sense

1595
01:12:43,840 --> 01:12:46,080
Speaker 1: in the world. He was trying to keep all of

1596
01:12:46,080 --> 01:12:47,800
Speaker 1: the balls in the air, and he decided it was

1597
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 1: justified to steal people's money in order to try to

1598
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:54,439
Speaker 1: keep his thing going. For whatever deluded reasons that he

1599
01:12:54,479 --> 01:12:55,320
Speaker 1: convinced himself of.

1600
01:12:55,360 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 3: And is said, Christill, what do you takeing a look at?

1601
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:02,799
Speaker 1: It would be difficult to find a more clear example

1602
01:13:02,880 --> 01:13:05,720
Speaker 1: of good versus evil. On one side, you've got a

1603
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:09,879
Speaker 1: government agency which has actually delivered for ordinary Americans, returning

1604
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:12,880
Speaker 1: seventeen billion dollars to consumers who've been screwed over and

1605
01:13:12,920 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 1: defrauded by banks and big business. On the other side,

1606
01:13:16,280 --> 01:13:19,960
Speaker 1: you have these scumbag vultures of the payday lending industry

1607
01:13:20,160 --> 01:13:23,880
Speaker 1: whose whole business model is exploitation of desperate people. And

1608
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:26,960
Speaker 1: for once, maybe, just maybe, the good guys are going

1609
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:29,280
Speaker 1: to win thanks to some very unlikely hearers.

1610
01:13:29,320 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 4: All right, so here's the story.

1611
01:13:30,840 --> 01:13:34,000
Speaker 1: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau or CFPV was established after

1612
01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 1: the fallout of the Great Recession to provide consumers with

1613
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:40,040
Speaker 1: some degree of protection and to punish financial predators who

1614
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 1: steal from their customers because they think they can just

1615
01:13:42,400 --> 01:13:44,640
Speaker 1: get away with it. And while of course there is

1616
01:13:44,720 --> 01:13:47,280
Speaker 1: always way more that can be done, the agency has

1617
01:13:47,320 --> 01:13:50,000
Speaker 1: actually broadly been a real success. They've taken the lead

1618
01:13:50,040 --> 01:13:52,200
Speaker 1: and cracking down on junk fees that banks charged for

1619
01:13:52,280 --> 01:13:55,080
Speaker 1: no real reason other than extraction They just went after

1620
01:13:55,120 --> 01:13:57,960
Speaker 1: Bank of America for misleading their customers and double dipping

1621
01:13:58,000 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 1: on insufficient funds fees. Last year, they ordered Wells Fargo

1622
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:05,360
Speaker 1: to pay two billion dollars back to auto loan and mortgage.

1623
01:14:05,000 --> 01:14:06,519
Speaker 4: Consumers that they had ripped off.

1624
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:08,960
Speaker 1: And the agency has also served as a resource for

1625
01:14:09,000 --> 01:14:11,479
Speaker 1: consumers who feel like they've been cheated or are struggling to

1626
01:14:11,520 --> 01:14:14,960
Speaker 1: sort through the intentionally misleading financial jargon that banks routinely

1627
01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:17,559
Speaker 1: throw at them. Now, the CFPD was the brainchild of

1628
01:14:17,560 --> 01:14:20,360
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren. This was back in her two income trap era,

1629
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:23,320
Speaker 1: not her pink pussy hat era. And because the agency

1630
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:25,880
Speaker 1: tangles with a lot of powerful wealthy interest, it was

1631
01:14:25,920 --> 01:14:28,799
Speaker 1: intentionally designed to be insulated from day to day political

1632
01:14:28,840 --> 01:14:31,440
Speaker 1: pressure so it could not just be captured by partisans

1633
01:14:31,520 --> 01:14:35,840
Speaker 1: or industry allies or quietly defunded and zombifie. Specifically, ron

1634
01:14:35,880 --> 01:14:39,599
Speaker 1: than being subject to the yearly appropriations process, the agency

1635
01:14:39,640 --> 01:14:42,479
Speaker 1: is funded through the Federal Reserve, which provides funds up

1636
01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:44,960
Speaker 1: to a set cap of six hundred million dollars a year.

1637
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:47,559
Speaker 1: This funding structure is now being used to try to

1638
01:14:47,640 --> 01:14:51,519
Speaker 1: attack and destroy the agency by its opponents, specifically the

1639
01:14:51,520 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 1: aforementioned gules in the payday loan industry. Now the real

1640
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 1: beef from this industry are new rules which seek to

1641
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:02,320
Speaker 1: curb their most abusive practice. These rules prevent these vultures

1642
01:15:02,320 --> 01:15:05,559
Speaker 1: from piling on new fees on loans, which contribute to

1643
01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 1: ever escalating loan balances, leading consumers to find themselves rapidly

1644
01:15:10,160 --> 01:15:13,240
Speaker 1: in debt for thousands of dollars on even small loans

1645
01:15:13,240 --> 01:15:14,760
Speaker 1: of five hundred dollars or less.

1646
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:16,200
Speaker 4: It's truly evil stuff.

1647
01:15:16,640 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 1: They could not get the course to agree with them

1648
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:22,479
Speaker 1: on going directly after these new rules, but they did

1649
01:15:22,520 --> 01:15:24,880
Speaker 1: get a sympathetic judge to by an argument that the

1650
01:15:24,880 --> 01:15:29,439
Speaker 1: agency's funding structure is an unconstitutional violation of the appropriation's clause,

1651
01:15:29,479 --> 01:15:33,120
Speaker 1: which grants Congress the power of the purse. But based

1652
01:15:33,160 --> 01:15:36,320
Speaker 1: on oral arguments, yesterday, all of the liberal justices at

1653
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, and critically two of the conservative justices

1654
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:44,679
Speaker 1: were none too impressed with these arguments, eviscerating the core

1655
01:15:44,840 --> 01:15:45,120
Speaker 1: of the.

1656
01:15:45,080 --> 01:15:46,280
Speaker 4: Payday ghules case.

1657
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:50,040
Speaker 1: Justice Kagan ripped the arguments as quote, flying in the

1658
01:15:50,080 --> 01:15:53,400
Speaker 1: face of two hundred and fifty years of history. Indeed,

1659
01:15:53,479 --> 01:15:57,000
Speaker 1: Congress has long provided standing non annual appropriations similar to

1660
01:15:57,000 --> 01:15:59,640
Speaker 1: the mechanism used to fund the CFPV for agencies as

1661
01:15:59,680 --> 01:16:02,920
Speaker 1: diverse as the Federal Reserve to the Postal Service. Justice

1662
01:16:02,960 --> 01:16:06,400
Speaker 1: Katanji brown Jackson took aim at the payday lender's imagining

1663
01:16:06,439 --> 01:16:09,479
Speaker 1: of secret language in the appropriation's clause which would constrain

1664
01:16:09,760 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 1: the mechanisms Congress can use to fund agencies. She asked, quote,

1665
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:16,400
Speaker 1: I had understood the point of the appropriation's clause is

1666
01:16:16,400 --> 01:16:18,479
Speaker 1: to prevent the executive from taking money without consent of

1667
01:16:18,520 --> 01:16:21,519
Speaker 1: the legislature. Is there something about the appropriation's clause that

1668
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:23,480
Speaker 1: directs Congress to check the executive?

1669
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 4: Don't you have to have that?

1670
01:16:25,560 --> 01:16:28,559
Speaker 1: What was actually the arguments of Conservatives Amy Cony Barrett

1671
01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 1: and Brett Kavanaugh that really cut the deepest. Barrett surprisingly

1672
01:16:32,200 --> 01:16:35,639
Speaker 1: backed up the line of questioning of Brown Jackson, pointedly declaring,

1673
01:16:35,880 --> 01:16:38,720
Speaker 1: there is nothing in the appropriations clause that imposes the

1674
01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:41,640
Speaker 1: limits you were talking about. Brett Kavanaugh chimed in to

1675
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:43,479
Speaker 1: put the payday lenders in a bit of a logic

1676
01:16:43,560 --> 01:16:46,080
Speaker 1: choke hold, pointing out the absurdity of their claim that

1677
01:16:46,120 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 1: CFPB funding was perpetual, when in fact, Congress can literally

1678
01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:52,719
Speaker 1: change the law anytime they choose to change or eliminate

1679
01:16:52,760 --> 01:16:56,559
Speaker 1: funding for this agency altogether. On the other side, Alito, Thomas,

1680
01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:58,760
Speaker 1: and Robert seemed, with their compstant questions to be on

1681
01:16:58,840 --> 01:17:01,920
Speaker 1: the side of the pay day life. Gorsich played his

1682
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:04,599
Speaker 1: cards close to the vest gave no real indication which

1683
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:07,519
Speaker 1: direction he was leaning in. But if ACB and Kavanaugh

1684
01:17:07,720 --> 01:17:10,360
Speaker 1: joined the three Liberals, the CFPB is going to live

1685
01:17:10,360 --> 01:17:11,200
Speaker 1: to fight another day.

1686
01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:12,360
Speaker 4: I will confess.

1687
01:17:12,560 --> 01:17:14,599
Speaker 1: When I saw this court was taking up a challenge

1688
01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 1: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, my heart sank. This is

1689
01:17:18,200 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 1: hardly a consumer friendly court. Even the Liberals cannot be

1690
01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:24,599
Speaker 1: counted to reliably take the side of ordinary Americans against

1691
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,240
Speaker 1: Wall Street in big business. But there was one factor

1692
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:31,160
Speaker 1: I did not consider. The funding question for this agency

1693
01:17:31,280 --> 01:17:34,080
Speaker 1: strikes at the heart of all agencies that have these

1694
01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:37,240
Speaker 1: type of standing appropriations, not just this one that does

1695
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:39,880
Speaker 1: happen to help consumers, and quite a bit of the

1696
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:45,200
Speaker 1: financial architecture that banks and homebuilders in particular rely on

1697
01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:48,320
Speaker 1: for market stability would be under threat with a finding

1698
01:17:48,439 --> 01:17:51,120
Speaker 1: in favor of these payday lenders. That is why a

1699
01:17:51,200 --> 01:17:54,320
Speaker 1: coalition of mortgage bankers and the home builders and realtors

1700
01:17:54,360 --> 01:17:57,200
Speaker 1: associations filed a series of Friend of the Court briefs

1701
01:17:57,200 --> 01:18:00,120
Speaker 1: on behalf of the good guys against the bad guys.

1702
01:18:00,520 --> 01:18:01,800
Speaker 4: So perhaps the fact that in this.

1703
01:18:01,880 --> 01:18:04,479
Speaker 1: Instance the needs of consumers happen to line up with

1704
01:18:04,479 --> 01:18:07,840
Speaker 1: the interests of some big Washington pow brogers is actually

1705
01:18:07,920 --> 01:18:10,840
Speaker 1: going to end up saving the day. Trump justices and

1706
01:18:10,840 --> 01:18:14,160
Speaker 1: bortgage bankers teaming up with liberals to actually preserve something good.

1707
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:16,960
Speaker 1: Did not see it coming, but I will absolutely take

1708
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:20,200
Speaker 1: it all day long. And Sager, I actually came to realize.

1709
01:18:20,600 --> 01:18:23,320
Speaker 2: And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1710
01:18:23,320 --> 01:18:29,599
Speaker 2: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, sorry,

1711
01:18:29,600 --> 01:18:31,479
Speaker 2: are we looking at Something has changed on the streets

1712
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:34,160
Speaker 2: of Northern Virginia and Washington, DC in recent years. And no,

1713
01:18:34,320 --> 01:18:36,439
Speaker 2: it is not just the crime and the homelessness. It

1714
01:18:36,479 --> 01:18:38,919
Speaker 2: is a new type of vehicle with those distinct headlights,

1715
01:18:39,080 --> 01:18:43,639
Speaker 2: the R rerivian R one SSUV. Now suddenly I swear

1716
01:18:43,720 --> 01:18:45,760
Speaker 2: I am seeing these things everywhere as they come out

1717
01:18:45,760 --> 01:18:47,920
Speaker 2: of thin air. It reminds me of seeing teslas in

1718
01:18:47,960 --> 01:18:49,559
Speaker 2: San Francisco like a decade ago.

1719
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:51,800
Speaker 3: Is it the next Tesla? What does it say?

1720
01:18:51,880 --> 01:18:54,400
Speaker 2: About the state of electric vehicles in the US and

1721
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:57,040
Speaker 2: how does it fit now into the war for manufacturing,

1722
01:18:57,200 --> 01:18:59,960
Speaker 2: production and price in the global market. Now, personally, I'm

1723
01:19:00,000 --> 01:19:02,240
Speaker 2: always been suspect of Rivian after the rumblings of their

1724
01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:04,880
Speaker 2: cost structure, and that seemed insane to me, especially with

1725
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:07,599
Speaker 2: a recent exposa of The Wall Street Journal. Rivian cars

1726
01:19:07,640 --> 01:19:10,960
Speaker 2: technologically have some awesome specs. They cost on average about

1727
01:19:11,000 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 2: eighty thousand dollars. Now that's a high price tag for sure,

1728
01:19:14,120 --> 01:19:16,080
Speaker 2: but in a world where the average new car costs

1729
01:19:16,120 --> 01:19:18,880
Speaker 2: fifty thousand, it's not that crazy for an electric and

1730
01:19:18,920 --> 01:19:21,680
Speaker 2: a premium suv product. What really stunned me, though, is

1731
01:19:21,720 --> 01:19:25,040
Speaker 2: this for every single car that Rivian sells on average,

1732
01:19:25,080 --> 01:19:28,880
Speaker 2: it is losing I repeat, losing thirty three thousand dollars.

1733
01:19:29,120 --> 01:19:29,920
Speaker 3: The company has.

1734
01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:32,639
Speaker 2: Raised approximately eighteen billion dollars in cash in twenty twenty

1735
01:19:32,680 --> 01:19:34,759
Speaker 2: one with a promise to be the Tasla of trucks

1736
01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:36,880
Speaker 2: and SUVs, and it is now in a matter of

1737
01:19:37,000 --> 01:19:40,960
Speaker 2: just two years, blown through nine billion dollars in production

1738
01:19:41,040 --> 01:19:43,360
Speaker 2: of only sixty five thousand vehicles. I don't say this

1739
01:19:43,400 --> 01:19:45,639
Speaker 2: to bash Rivian. I want them and many new electric

1740
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:48,639
Speaker 2: car companies to succeed, but the pitfalls the company faces

1741
01:19:48,760 --> 01:19:50,920
Speaker 2: highlight some of the major supply issues that I've tried

1742
01:19:50,960 --> 01:19:53,719
Speaker 2: to bring attention to for evs on the show. Consider

1743
01:19:53,760 --> 01:19:56,439
Speaker 2: that with the astronomical loss now of nearly nine billion

1744
01:19:56,479 --> 01:19:59,320
Speaker 2: dollars and thirty three grand per vehicle, the company's single

1745
01:19:59,400 --> 01:20:02,240
Speaker 2: US factory is still only producing one third of its

1746
01:20:02,240 --> 01:20:04,960
Speaker 2: build capacity, and it's on track to produce only about

1747
01:20:04,960 --> 01:20:07,880
Speaker 2: fifty thousand dollars fifty thousand more cars this year. The

1748
01:20:07,960 --> 01:20:11,000
Speaker 2: current burn rate is about four billion dollars per quarter,

1749
01:20:11,280 --> 01:20:14,439
Speaker 2: even after the sales on cars are factored in. What

1750
01:20:14,560 --> 01:20:17,920
Speaker 2: really stunned me though about Rivian was how atypical it

1751
01:20:18,040 --> 01:20:21,160
Speaker 2: actually is when you look at other non Tesla electric

1752
01:20:21,240 --> 01:20:24,519
Speaker 2: vehicles in the US. Take Ford, for example, for some

1753
01:20:24,560 --> 01:20:27,040
Speaker 2: of the best Big three evs on the market, and

1754
01:20:27,120 --> 01:20:30,599
Speaker 2: yet Ford is taking a loss of nearly sixty thousand

1755
01:20:30,600 --> 01:20:33,360
Speaker 2: dollars per electric vehicle sold per the latest data of

1756
01:20:33,439 --> 01:20:36,280
Speaker 2: the company published. Total losses for the company on electric

1757
01:20:36,400 --> 01:20:39,200
Speaker 2: vehicles just this year total some four point five billion,

1758
01:20:39,320 --> 01:20:42,320
Speaker 2: with the Ford Model E alone representing one point eight

1759
01:20:42,320 --> 01:20:46,360
Speaker 2: billion losses. Now, the losses predominantly are located in upfront

1760
01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:49,839
Speaker 2: costs associated basically with the startup within a major company,

1761
01:20:49,960 --> 01:20:53,240
Speaker 2: and they demonstrate really the difficulty of getting electric vehicles

1762
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:56,280
Speaker 2: to mass market. Silantis and GM do not publish specific

1763
01:20:56,360 --> 01:20:59,200
Speaker 2: EV losses per vehicle, but there's no indication they've somehow

1764
01:20:59,240 --> 01:21:02,600
Speaker 2: secretly discovered of magic and are not running similar deficits

1765
01:21:02,720 --> 01:21:05,599
Speaker 2: that other carmakers are. Others may give us a sense

1766
01:21:05,640 --> 01:21:08,400
Speaker 2: of how common these losses appear to be. Take the

1767
01:21:08,479 --> 01:21:12,240
Speaker 2: luxury evmaker Lucid, which was billed as a major competitor

1768
01:21:12,280 --> 01:21:15,240
Speaker 2: to the Tesla model S. The company is currently posting

1769
01:21:15,520 --> 01:21:19,280
Speaker 2: half a million dollars losses per vehicle, which second quarter

1770
01:21:19,360 --> 01:21:22,120
Speaker 2: results showing one hundred and fifty million in revenue for

1771
01:21:22,280 --> 01:21:25,920
Speaker 2: just fourteen hundred vehicles sold in three months. Back of

1772
01:21:25,960 --> 01:21:28,320
Speaker 2: the Napkin math factoring in their net loss of seven

1773
01:21:28,439 --> 01:21:31,519
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty four million suggests the half a million

1774
01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:34,679
Speaker 2: dollar loss on car that still only costs between eighty

1775
01:21:34,720 --> 01:21:37,240
Speaker 2: to two hundred and fifty grand. Now, seriously, there's a

1776
01:21:37,240 --> 01:21:39,840
Speaker 2: big success story missing from this, and of course that

1777
01:21:40,000 --> 01:21:42,200
Speaker 2: is the path to victory that all these car makers

1778
01:21:42,200 --> 01:21:45,040
Speaker 2: wont the Tesla. Tesla, which has more than a decade

1779
01:21:45,120 --> 01:21:47,120
Speaker 2: head start on the rest it wasn't that long ago

1780
01:21:47,120 --> 01:21:49,200
Speaker 2: the Tesla was posting about a four thousand dollars loss

1781
01:21:49,200 --> 01:21:52,200
Speaker 2: per vehicle like in twenty fifteen, and gearing up for

1782
01:21:52,320 --> 01:21:55,720
Speaker 2: its most ambitious project ever, the Model three, the affordable

1783
01:21:55,760 --> 01:21:58,479
Speaker 2: and the mass market car that very nearly did not

1784
01:21:58,600 --> 01:22:02,200
Speaker 2: make it to production. White literally required Elon to sleep

1785
01:22:02,200 --> 01:22:04,600
Speaker 2: on the factory floor to deliver it well past the

1786
01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:09,200
Speaker 2: promised deadline. Wasn't until twenty eighteen, a decade into existence,

1787
01:22:09,360 --> 01:22:12,080
Speaker 2: that the company even began to consistently deliver a profit,

1788
01:22:12,280 --> 01:22:15,120
Speaker 2: and since then has of course gone gangbusters, in some cases,

1789
01:22:15,160 --> 01:22:19,000
Speaker 2: out selling massive competitors like Toyota in many states like California.

1790
01:22:19,200 --> 01:22:22,000
Speaker 2: The lesson from Tesla is that diminishing losses per vehicle

1791
01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:25,519
Speaker 2: over time, combined with chasing economies of scale, market share,

1792
01:22:25,560 --> 01:22:28,360
Speaker 2: and infrastructure, can deliver you big time success in the

1793
01:22:28,360 --> 01:22:30,519
Speaker 2: long run. And they're doing so well now. They're even

1794
01:22:30,560 --> 01:22:33,280
Speaker 2: slashing prices to gain more market share because they can,

1795
01:22:33,439 --> 01:22:35,240
Speaker 2: and they're still making a lot of money. The big

1796
01:22:35,280 --> 01:22:37,160
Speaker 2: elephant in the room, though, is not just for non

1797
01:22:37,200 --> 01:22:40,839
Speaker 2: Tesla US companies, is chasing market share here and abroad,

1798
01:22:41,120 --> 01:22:44,719
Speaker 2: especially with Tesla and all others versus China, specifically Chinese

1799
01:22:44,800 --> 01:22:45,519
Speaker 2: maker BYD.

1800
01:22:45,840 --> 01:22:48,120
Speaker 3: BYD doesn't just have consumer cars sold.

1801
01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:50,120
Speaker 2: They don't have consumer cars sold here in the US

1802
01:22:50,240 --> 01:22:52,680
Speaker 2: they probably never will because of US China relations. But

1803
01:22:52,760 --> 01:22:55,720
Speaker 2: abroad they are a juggernaut to be reckoned with. I've

1804
01:22:55,760 --> 01:22:57,920
Speaker 2: seen a few in last year or so in my travels,

1805
01:22:57,920 --> 01:23:00,439
Speaker 2: and it pains me to admit. They both look and

1806
01:23:00,479 --> 01:23:03,280
Speaker 2: they are selling very well. In fact, for the third quarter,

1807
01:23:03,439 --> 01:23:07,000
Speaker 2: BYD has officially reached tessel status, selling a comparable four

1808
01:23:07,120 --> 01:23:10,479
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty one thousand electric vehicles worldwide. Already, it

1809
01:23:10,560 --> 01:23:13,040
Speaker 2: is the top ed seller outside of China in key

1810
01:23:13,080 --> 01:23:17,120
Speaker 2: countries like Australia, Sweden, Thailand, and even Israel. The company

1811
01:23:17,200 --> 01:23:20,040
Speaker 2: is the purest distillation of the Chinese model. You steal

1812
01:23:20,240 --> 01:23:23,200
Speaker 2: with assistants all of the ip of every major automaker

1813
01:23:23,200 --> 01:23:25,880
Speaker 2: in the world. You use government cash and protectionism to

1814
01:23:25,960 --> 01:23:26,799
Speaker 2: refine the company.

1815
01:23:26,840 --> 01:23:29,519
Speaker 3: Over decades, you vertically integrated. They produce then a.

1816
01:23:29,479 --> 01:23:32,559
Speaker 2: Product that actually genuinely rivals most competitors, and in some

1817
01:23:32,600 --> 01:23:33,519
Speaker 2: cases is even better.

1818
01:23:33,760 --> 01:23:34,360
Speaker 3: The point of this.

1819
01:23:34,320 --> 01:23:37,160
Speaker 2: Monologue is only just to honestly survey the landscape for

1820
01:23:37,200 --> 01:23:39,599
Speaker 2: those who may not know the sheer amount of costs involved.

1821
01:23:39,680 --> 01:23:41,960
Speaker 2: And the real business dynamic that could put the US

1822
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:45,400
Speaker 2: still farther behind China. We have not even touched on

1823
01:23:45,439 --> 01:23:47,599
Speaker 2: the fact that the vast majority of inputs into all

1824
01:23:47,640 --> 01:23:50,360
Speaker 2: these cars do come from China or are controlled by China,

1825
01:23:50,560 --> 01:23:53,679
Speaker 2: and the supply chain itself already shows the same perils

1826
01:23:53,680 --> 01:23:57,240
Speaker 2: of globalization that bedeviled the internal combustion engine car for

1827
01:23:57,320 --> 01:23:59,920
Speaker 2: the last couple of decades. I am genuinely rooting for

1828
01:24:00,000 --> 01:24:02,439
Speaker 2: electric cars. My main takeaway from this is that if

1829
01:24:02,439 --> 01:24:04,719
Speaker 2: this is to be the future, these pitty tax credits

1830
01:24:04,720 --> 01:24:06,200
Speaker 2: that we have in place, they are not going to

1831
01:24:06,200 --> 01:24:08,439
Speaker 2: set us up for success. It will require a near

1832
01:24:08,520 --> 01:24:11,360
Speaker 2: Manhattan project or a Polo style program leap forward to

1833
01:24:11,479 --> 01:24:17,040
Speaker 2: secure the supply chain and then, most importantly, deliver a decent, reliable, usable,

1834
01:24:17,160 --> 01:24:20,719
Speaker 2: affordable product to the American consumer that actually fits their needs.

1835
01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:23,200
Speaker 2: All I'm seeing right now is a weird mix between

1836
01:24:23,280 --> 01:24:26,720
Speaker 2: rugged individual capitalism and then half hearted state policy that

1837
01:24:26,800 --> 01:24:29,839
Speaker 2: ironically may meet us weaker in the long run, reducing

1838
01:24:29,880 --> 01:24:33,000
Speaker 2: combustion engine production and then not setting us up for

1839
01:24:33,080 --> 01:24:36,320
Speaker 2: actual electric success. It's time, though, to get real, if

1840
01:24:36,320 --> 01:24:39,080
Speaker 2: we want to win. I'm curious what you think, Crystle these.

1841
01:24:38,920 --> 01:24:41,200
Speaker 1: Losses, and if you want to hear my reaction to

1842
01:24:41,240 --> 01:24:48,280
Speaker 1: Sager's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot com.

1843
01:24:48,320 --> 01:24:50,559
Speaker 1: Very excited to be joined live now by Jim Row.

1844
01:24:50,640 --> 01:24:53,519
Speaker 1: He is a veteran auto worker with UAW Local twelve

1845
01:24:53,680 --> 01:24:56,840
Speaker 1: in Toledo. He's also currently on strike, and he's a

1846
01:24:56,920 --> 01:25:00,360
Speaker 1: forty year UAW worker who also spent sixteen years as

1847
01:25:00,400 --> 01:25:02,640
Speaker 1: a UAW rep. So we're very lucky to have him

1848
01:25:02,720 --> 01:25:05,880
Speaker 1: join us this morning. Great Seezar, good to Zoo, good morning, Thanks,

1849
01:25:05,880 --> 01:25:08,040
Speaker 1: good morning. So, first of all, just give us an

1850
01:25:08,080 --> 01:25:10,200
Speaker 1: update on your spirits. How are you feeling about how

1851
01:25:10,200 --> 01:25:11,240
Speaker 1: things are progressing here.

1852
01:25:12,520 --> 01:25:16,679
Speaker 13: We're doing good, you know, the talks are going good.

1853
01:25:17,360 --> 01:25:19,160
Speaker 13: We haven't heard a whole lot, you know, we get

1854
01:25:19,200 --> 01:25:24,759
Speaker 13: our updates on Fridays, but negotiations seem to be moving along.

1855
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:28,160
Speaker 2: Jim, There's been a lot of talk here in Washington

1856
01:25:28,200 --> 01:25:31,479
Speaker 2: about demands. I've personally found it frustrating that everybody talks

1857
01:25:31,479 --> 01:25:33,640
Speaker 2: in percentages. Could you just lay out one of the

1858
01:25:33,640 --> 01:25:35,400
Speaker 2: reasons that you guys are on strike, one of the

1859
01:25:35,400 --> 01:25:38,439
Speaker 2: reasons that I understand you've been walking the picket line yourself.

1860
01:25:38,920 --> 01:25:39,880
Speaker 3: Some of the conditions.

1861
01:25:39,920 --> 01:25:42,320
Speaker 2: The raises what you guys have done in the past,

1862
01:25:42,400 --> 01:25:44,080
Speaker 2: just for our audience who wants to hear it directly

1863
01:25:44,120 --> 01:25:44,679
Speaker 2: from a worker.

1864
01:25:45,880 --> 01:25:49,120
Speaker 6: Well, our demands aren't outrageous.

1865
01:25:49,280 --> 01:25:51,439
Speaker 13: In two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, when

1866
01:25:51,479 --> 01:25:56,200
Speaker 13: we filed bankruptcy, we took cuts, and we took big cuts.

1867
01:25:57,040 --> 01:25:59,800
Speaker 13: And then in twenty thirteen when they start hiring again

1868
01:25:59,840 --> 01:26:05,320
Speaker 13: here in Toledo or our new hires were making fifteen

1869
01:26:05,439 --> 01:26:09,160
Speaker 13: seventy eight an hour, and there's still when they hire

1870
01:26:09,200 --> 01:26:13,760
Speaker 13: in today, fifteen seventy eight an hour. No one can

1871
01:26:13,800 --> 01:26:16,880
Speaker 13: live on that wage. It's not a living wage. You

1872
01:26:17,000 --> 01:26:19,880
Speaker 13: have to have a second job. And for making that

1873
01:26:19,960 --> 01:26:23,759
Speaker 13: kind of money and going into the plant and working

1874
01:26:23,800 --> 01:26:28,000
Speaker 13: hard and hurting your body, they deserve an increase.

1875
01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:31,120
Speaker 1: Jim, I wonder what you've made of some of the

1876
01:26:31,160 --> 01:26:35,000
Speaker 1: political attention. Obviously you had current President Biden walking the

1877
01:26:35,000 --> 01:26:38,080
Speaker 1: picket line. You also had former President Trump going to

1878
01:26:38,120 --> 01:26:40,920
Speaker 1: Michigan saying he was sort of supporting autoworkers, but then

1879
01:26:40,920 --> 01:26:44,400
Speaker 1: speaking at a non union plant. Does this political peace

1880
01:26:44,600 --> 01:26:45,639
Speaker 1: factor into any of this.

1881
01:26:45,640 --> 01:26:46,080
Speaker 4: For you all?

1882
01:26:47,080 --> 01:26:47,599
Speaker 6: It doesn't.

1883
01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:51,280
Speaker 13: I try we try to keep the political side out

1884
01:26:51,320 --> 01:26:55,200
Speaker 13: of it. This is for the working class of America.

1885
01:26:56,040 --> 01:27:01,280
Speaker 13: We need to stand strong and get what we deserve,

1886
01:27:01,560 --> 01:27:03,639
Speaker 13: and this is going to help out the whole working

1887
01:27:03,680 --> 01:27:04,679
Speaker 13: class of America.

1888
01:27:06,280 --> 01:27:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jim, I mean, I think one of the things

1889
01:27:08,000 --> 01:27:10,360
Speaker 2: that people really want to understand is about the mood

1890
01:27:10,400 --> 01:27:12,400
Speaker 2: in the country and whether you guys feel is if

1891
01:27:12,439 --> 01:27:14,360
Speaker 2: you're getting the support that you need. Let's put the

1892
01:27:14,400 --> 01:27:16,840
Speaker 2: politics out of this, out of this and think about

1893
01:27:17,080 --> 01:27:19,479
Speaker 2: the American people. Do you feel as if the American

1894
01:27:19,479 --> 01:27:21,320
Speaker 2: people are with you? Have you've seen, you know, the

1895
01:27:21,360 --> 01:27:24,479
Speaker 2: support for unions. We're seeing that reflected and polling. I'm

1896
01:27:24,520 --> 01:27:26,719
Speaker 2: curious how you feel it actually on the ground.

1897
01:27:27,920 --> 01:27:32,799
Speaker 13: Actually, it's great. The people are for us here in Toledo.

1898
01:27:32,880 --> 01:27:37,960
Speaker 13: We have a strong community support, strong leadership from our

1899
01:27:38,000 --> 01:27:43,200
Speaker 13: mayor on down, our our senators, our governors, they're all

1900
01:27:43,320 --> 01:27:47,919
Speaker 13: they're all supporting. Across the United States, even up in Michigan,

1901
01:27:48,439 --> 01:27:49,639
Speaker 13: there's a lot of support.

1902
01:27:49,720 --> 01:27:52,919
Speaker 6: We're seeing the different unions there. It's amazing.

1903
01:27:53,000 --> 01:27:57,160
Speaker 13: How you see Sarah Nelson, she came with President Fame

1904
01:27:58,000 --> 01:28:01,519
Speaker 13: from the AFA and the Teachers Union and the iron

1905
01:28:01,560 --> 01:28:06,439
Speaker 13: workers and the electricians, and they're coming from not just Ohio,

1906
01:28:06,520 --> 01:28:09,760
Speaker 13: but different states and they're coming and walking with us

1907
01:28:09,760 --> 01:28:10,680
Speaker 13: and supporting us.

1908
01:28:11,680 --> 01:28:14,920
Speaker 1: What do you think of the strategy that present Fine

1909
01:28:15,040 --> 01:28:17,599
Speaker 1: and the UAW leadership have pursued. I know there were

1910
01:28:17,640 --> 01:28:19,519
Speaker 1: some workers who were open and everybody was going to

1911
01:28:19,600 --> 01:28:23,040
Speaker 1: go on at once. Instead, you've gone with what's called

1912
01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:25,680
Speaker 1: a stand up strike, where different plants starts striking at

1913
01:28:25,680 --> 01:28:28,320
Speaker 1: different times depending on how the negotiations are going.

1914
01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:29,640
Speaker 4: What do you think of the strategy.

1915
01:28:30,960 --> 01:28:32,360
Speaker 6: I think it was pretty smart.

1916
01:28:33,120 --> 01:28:35,760
Speaker 13: He knew which one is to hit first, and that's

1917
01:28:35,800 --> 01:28:40,400
Speaker 13: their money makers, Toledo Jeep. That's the only place that

1918
01:28:40,880 --> 01:28:43,919
Speaker 13: the jeep has made for the world is here in Toledo,

1919
01:28:44,680 --> 01:28:47,000
Speaker 13: and you hit them on their pocket when you stop

1920
01:28:47,040 --> 01:28:52,400
Speaker 13: building jeeps. And the stand up strike by hitting him

1921
01:28:52,840 --> 01:28:57,880
Speaker 13: strategically through different plants, I think they're starting to understand.

1922
01:29:00,320 --> 01:29:03,000
Speaker 2: There's all the questions about, you know, how this will

1923
01:29:03,000 --> 01:29:05,599
Speaker 2: come to resolve, and we just want to ask you,

1924
01:29:05,600 --> 01:29:08,200
Speaker 2: you know, in terms of you, your colleagues and everyone,

1925
01:29:09,120 --> 01:29:11,040
Speaker 2: are you willing to give an inch here? Are you

1926
01:29:11,080 --> 01:29:13,439
Speaker 2: guys going to stand for the entire time? Because that's

1927
01:29:13,439 --> 01:29:14,920
Speaker 2: what the bosses apparently are hoping.

1928
01:29:16,080 --> 01:29:20,760
Speaker 13: Well, I'm sure it's negotiations. I mean, there's going to

1929
01:29:20,800 --> 01:29:24,040
Speaker 13: be there's going to be negotiations. Are they going to

1930
01:29:24,080 --> 01:29:26,240
Speaker 13: give an inch? Yes, we've already have. I mean, we

1931
01:29:26,280 --> 01:29:29,599
Speaker 13: went from forty down to thirty six or thirty two,

1932
01:29:31,960 --> 01:29:36,280
Speaker 13: and we are willing to negotiate. They just there's a

1933
01:29:36,280 --> 01:29:39,280
Speaker 13: few things that need to be looked at, the tears

1934
01:29:40,120 --> 01:29:42,840
Speaker 13: and the starting wage for our new hires.

1935
01:29:43,120 --> 01:29:44,000
Speaker 3: Got it, Jim.

1936
01:29:44,200 --> 01:29:47,320
Speaker 1: I was also curious about your view of the electric

1937
01:29:47,400 --> 01:29:50,479
Speaker 1: vehicle transition, which has ended up being a major topic

1938
01:29:50,520 --> 01:29:53,439
Speaker 1: of conversation. You know, the future of that industry and

1939
01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:56,799
Speaker 1: the future of workers and auto workers within that industry.

1940
01:29:56,800 --> 01:29:57,800
Speaker 4: I'm just curious your view.

1941
01:29:59,600 --> 01:30:03,360
Speaker 6: Well, I'm not a big fan of the electric vehicle.

1942
01:30:04,800 --> 01:30:06,080
Speaker 6: Is it coming? Yes, it is.

1943
01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:11,200
Speaker 13: Unfortunately, what they say is it's going to take about

1944
01:30:11,200 --> 01:30:13,360
Speaker 13: thirty percent of our jobs away from us.

1945
01:30:13,920 --> 01:30:15,200
Speaker 6: Hopefully that's not true.

1946
01:30:16,680 --> 01:30:18,439
Speaker 4: Is that part of what this fight is about.

1947
01:30:20,439 --> 01:30:25,200
Speaker 13: No, the fight is about the working class in getting

1948
01:30:26,520 --> 01:30:29,679
Speaker 13: a working wage that we can survive on and people

1949
01:30:29,680 --> 01:30:32,280
Speaker 13: don't have to go do second jobs and come to

1950
01:30:32,320 --> 01:30:36,439
Speaker 13: the plant, work ten hours and go work at Dollar General.

1951
01:30:36,720 --> 01:30:41,240
Speaker 13: You know, they need working class wage so they can

1952
01:30:41,320 --> 01:30:42,639
Speaker 13: survive and pay their bills.

1953
01:30:43,640 --> 01:30:45,400
Speaker 2: Jim, I want to ask you worked in the industry

1954
01:30:45,439 --> 01:30:48,240
Speaker 2: for forty years now, you've probably seen a lot of

1955
01:30:48,360 --> 01:30:51,599
Speaker 2: change over time. What was it like when you started

1956
01:30:51,760 --> 01:30:54,200
Speaker 2: in terms of the ability to work to support a family,

1957
01:30:54,520 --> 01:30:56,400
Speaker 2: and then what's it like now? And is that why

1958
01:30:56,400 --> 01:30:57,160
Speaker 2: you're fighting today?

1959
01:30:59,200 --> 01:31:04,439
Speaker 13: It was when I started in nineteen eighty four. It

1960
01:31:04,520 --> 01:31:07,679
Speaker 13: was the best place to work in Toledo. Everybody wanted

1961
01:31:07,720 --> 01:31:12,519
Speaker 13: a job at JEEP. Everyone had good families, they had

1962
01:31:12,520 --> 01:31:15,639
Speaker 13: a good living. You know, if you worked at JEEP

1963
01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:19,719
Speaker 13: in the eighties, you were you had a good, good

1964
01:31:19,760 --> 01:31:22,920
Speaker 13: living and it took care of your family. And as

1965
01:31:22,920 --> 01:31:25,599
Speaker 13: the years progressed through all the people that have bought us,

1966
01:31:26,479 --> 01:31:32,200
Speaker 13: from Cerberus to Dommler to Fiat, we always gave up

1967
01:31:33,240 --> 01:31:40,760
Speaker 13: our progression. We never regressed. We always gave up concessions.

1968
01:31:41,280 --> 01:31:44,000
Speaker 13: And it's time for us to get it back so

1969
01:31:44,080 --> 01:31:48,080
Speaker 13: we can have a good living, a good wage and

1970
01:31:48,120 --> 01:31:49,240
Speaker 13: support our families.

1971
01:31:51,000 --> 01:31:51,759
Speaker 4: Wonder Jim.

1972
01:31:52,160 --> 01:31:54,840
Speaker 1: Lastly, if you have any message to folks like Jim

1973
01:31:54,880 --> 01:31:59,599
Speaker 1: Kramer over on CNBC who suggested that the CEOs should

1974
01:31:59,640 --> 01:32:03,080
Speaker 1: just shut down production, move everything to Mexico and say

1975
01:32:03,120 --> 01:32:05,320
Speaker 1: screw you to you guys and all of your commands.

1976
01:32:07,560 --> 01:32:12,840
Speaker 13: Well, Jim Kramer, he flip flops because a few years

1977
01:32:12,840 --> 01:32:15,559
Speaker 13: ago he was for the autoworkers and for the unions,

1978
01:32:16,320 --> 01:32:19,320
Speaker 13: so I really don't have much say about him.

1979
01:32:19,360 --> 01:32:20,800
Speaker 3: That's probably best for all of us.

1980
01:32:21,560 --> 01:32:26,320
Speaker 2: We appreciate, we appreciate you joining us, sir, We do

1981
01:32:26,400 --> 01:32:27,200
Speaker 2: really appreciate it.

1982
01:32:27,280 --> 01:32:28,960
Speaker 3: We support you one hundred percent. So thank you.

1983
01:32:29,040 --> 01:32:31,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, great to have you. Good luck, We stand solidarity

1984
01:32:31,479 --> 01:32:31,800
Speaker 1: with you.

1985
01:32:32,439 --> 01:32:33,240
Speaker 6: Thank you very much.

1986
01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:35,760
Speaker 3: Have a good day, it's our pleasure. We'll see you

1987
01:32:35,800 --> 01:32:36,280
Speaker 3: guys later.